so, we'll be watching those, too. >> lots of volatility in your house. and in the markets. most likely. my kids are 13 and 15 so i remember fondly these days. >> it sounds like you're up next. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. bruised apple. the tech giant stemabling to start the year, down over 3.5%. barclays downgrading the stock, saying it's time to take a breather. is it a profit-taking move or a beginning of a meaningful mag seven rotation? plus, bitcoin starting '24 the way it ended '23, booming. but will the rally stall out once the etf gets the thumb's up? and what happens to all the stocks that soared along with crypto? and later, inside the n numbers of a pharma stock that is so bad, even dan -- even dan thinks it could be good right

now. the big reveal, the reasons why coming up. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, dan nathan, guy adami, and mike khouw. we start off with a season that might confirm last year's megacap tech rally is truly in the past, shares of apple sinking 3.5% for its worst performance since last september. the stock closing at its lowest point since mid-november. barclays caught it to an underweight, citing concerns for demand for the latest iphone. it wasn't just apple under pressure today. check out the moves of the other big names. netflix, nvidia, meta, and more all dragging the nasdaq to its worst first day of the year since 2016. >> wow. >> meantime, investors seemed to flock to one of the most beaten down sectors of last year, that would be health care. the group was the best performer in the s and p. so, is apple's drop just a sign of natural rotation in the market or does it send a more

ominous signal? guy? >> okay, let's get the happy new year stuff out of the way. >> i'm not done. i reserve the right to say happy new year all week and i might just -- >> and next week, too. >> yeah. >> all right. well, that's the last one you hear from me. it's interesting. dan made a comment earlier today, apple, he thought could have been lower today regardless whether or not, d.a. davidson after the bell, i believe, initiated apple with a neutral, $166 price target. one thing we said, i think pretty consistently is, i don't think anybody's ever said to short the stock on this desk. we've said consistently, though, there will be better opportunities at certain points in the year to buy the stock, and i think that's manifesting itself right now. we thought it would get down to 160 in the summer. $165 in october. given the backdrop and we traded up to prior highs and have failed now, that $165 level, that barclays price target doesn't seem unreasonable to me. >> i guess the question is, is

this apple-specific in the note cited volume declines, bad mix, service revenues down. >> it is apple-specific when you think about a stock that's expected to have earnings at mid to high single digits. it is apple-specific. you think about the gross margin they have in the smartphone space. they have the whole industry's margin there, so, i just think of this -- and by the way, guy, i have probably said short the stock here. maybe you guys have not. the story in apple is one of monopoly -- >> by the way, guy, happy new year. >> happy new year. it's management. it's balance sheet, it's all the things that we know, you know what i mean, is working for them, and you could have said the same thing that the analyst said today on november 2nd when the company reported their fiscal q-4 and all those trends were evident. and you know what happened? the stock went from $172 to $195 to make a new all-time high. what's changed is the sentiment, the calendar, and who knows? could this thing kind of fall back into his 200-day moving

average or that support, the uptrend in place? take one or two turns off of its valuation from those highs, take some of the sentiment euphoria out of it? sure. and that would be healthy. >> for one day, it's -- i think it's both. in other words, i think the fact that the nasdaq 100 underperformed the s&p significantly today, and the equal weighed s&p was flat on the day. it outperformed by 150 basis points. a trend we were seeing towards the end of the year. the biggest stock in the world, a stock up 55%, 60% last year. so, it is the market overall. but no question these downgrades were targeting important things about apple, but things we could say about other companies, as well. by the way, guy, happy new year. >> mike khouw does it, that's the end of it. >> well. >> what we're talking about with apple that i think you could reference other stocks is the multiple. the downgrade is, we're going to go 25 times, mid-650 eps for '24

and we end up where we end up. i do think they're going to struggle to grow eps, so, if you start to see multiple contraction across the group, and i do mean the high multiple techs and i think apple is the most vulnerable. and part of what they've singled out here, they say services are going to grow 10%. that's been the story, right? that's been the multiple driver. and if you think you're not going to go 20%, but you're going to grow 10%, i think it's the case where it's apple specific. >> yeah, services and china and they've lost share in china, which is what ubs specifically sites, mike khouw. happy new year. >> happy new year. that's for you, guy. look, when it comes to valuation for apple, everybody on the desk has talked about it, it's at the upper end of its range. this is the difficult thing. when you look at companies that are growing at a very high rate and you talk about the multiple, they can always grow into that multiple. but in the case of apple,it's not growing that quickly, so, when you start saying it's trading towards the upper end of its valuation range, you

actually can say, maybe this is a time to take profits if you've been lucky enough to get them, and anybody who is thinking that, going into november and december, if you were thinking it then, you definitely are thinking after that tax year ends and now that it has, you would expect to see selling pressure. i don't think that applies to other companies that have, let's call it higher valuation multiples like nvidia, which could grow into it or companies that were up a lot on the year but don't necessarily trade at a high multiple, like meta. but in the case of apple, i think if you own it, if it's an outsized position for you, you want to p pare it, at the very least. >> it's a company that has not delivered solid earnings in the past few quarters. so, they're saying, you know what? this year, we're going to go back. so, the question here is, you know, for companies that have not delivered, have not knocked the cover off the ball for

earnings, maybe there is no more patience in this market where you want to take a look at valuations, and today, for instance, we saw the rotation to health care, we saw the rotation to utilities, the safer areas of the market. >> all good signs. but you bring up a good point. the market rewarded companies that even just came in in-line to slightly worse last year. for a myriad of reasons. and we said this, as well. apple is the biggest beneficiary of passive investing, without question. you can at me if you want, but it happens to be true. in the absence of anything happening, each day apple sees money flows into the stock. it is gotten expensive. and i think there's a bit of mean reversion going in here. and the reason why they get that premium multiple is services revenue. if that trends the other way, the multiple is in jeopardy. >> and that's the point. just look at a microsoft, the other $3 trillion market cap company that is expected to grow earnings and sales this current year, double digits, okay? and so it's trading at 32 times,

but they are getting that tailwind of the gen-a.i. stuff and apple doesn't have any of that. and so, to me, if you were playing a little bit of a would you rather -- >> apparently we're doing that on the first day of the year, mel. just observing. >> but i think at some point, microsoft overtakes apple this year in market cap and never looks back, because they have the tailwind, their ability -- this a 68% gross margin company versus apple, 50% of the revenue comes from hardware. so, whatever microsoft is able to do, right, it -- with their openai access and inte grating it into their productivity tools, the gen a.i. stuff, it reason accretive to margin. >> that's why there doesn't have to be a mag seven. guy -- that's not what i'm about to do. you're saying it's good for markets, if we are getting discrimination between these stocks. and why this is also not just a market story and an apple story, they are citing market share loss. so, they're talking about -- they are actually losing ground in the u.s., we know they're losing ground in china. india, which is supposed to be

this bright spot was not so good. so, the fact that the i-piphone is essentially down in terms or where it's sell-through is with per stage to the overall product line, it's mid 50s, high to mid 50s, where the past it was mild 60s or more. the refresh isn't that important. as the phones get better and there's less innovation, you don't feel like you have to go buy a 15 if you have a 13. that's why, for apple, look, i think the multiple can come in. >> you might hold that phone longer, right? i mean, dan, you just bought one, but you always buy the new thing. >> i went from, like, a 12 to a 15 and -- >> to their point, the mix is not good. not buying the highest one. >> i went into an apple store in dallas, texas, the day before, there were more people in apple red shirts than there were consumers in there the day before. it was inundated with their own employees. >> like going to a met game and more vendors than fans, mel. >> why do we have to do this on the first day of the year? >> dan brought it up.

>> we have a guest who i bet is a met fan. >> we'll see. we'll see. >> i don't know. >> despite the negative start to 2024, investor known for the big short questions whether we are still too bullish. stevie iseman is here on the show. happy new year. >> thank you. honored to be here on the first show. >> so, you think that market fundamentals are actually good, but overall, sentiment is too bullish? how do you distinguish? >> think about it this way. say we were here a year ago, most of your guests would have come in and said, the earnings to the s&p are going to be down. the market is going to be down. the economy is going to go into recession in about 15 seconds. and none of that happened. the recession that never was. and so , the market climbed the wall of worry all year. here we are a year later and everybody is, including me, has a pretty benign view of the economy. the only thing that bothers me is just that -- i don't think we're necessarily wrong on the economy. i think we're probably right. it's just that everybody's come to the year so bullish that if

there are any disappointments, you know, what's going to hold the market up? but i think long-term i'm still very bullish, but near term, i just worry that everybody's coming to the year, you know, feeling too good. >> we're having a whole conversation about apple, and how the markets might need to discriminate within big tack t technology, do you feel it's a time for a rotation? is this a backdrop to rotate into lower pe stocks or, does that not matter to you? >> i don't think it matters that much. i still think, you know, the magnificent -- you have to have at least a significant percentage of your assets in the magnificent seven, they are the themes that we also really talk to our investors about, like in infrastructure, $1.2 trillion is still going to get spent in the united states over the next ten years. first time we've had an industrial policy in the united states of america, probably since anybody in this room's

been alive, so, that's a big theme. so, look, there are a lot of good things going forward in the market, it's just, you know, to start the year psychologically, everybody is just a little too freaking happy. >> so, a place where you haven't been terribly happy and we want to hear -- most investors, when you talk about banks, people want to listen. >> what am i -- >> well, you've made some great calls, some successful calls on the banking sector. and i think probably three months ago, you said somewhere, you know, in the context of probably a much bigger conversation, but that banks were not investable. and if we're going to get the market to rally further from here, we need the participation of banks. so, touch base on banks at the start of this year. >> so, let's pick on one bank. and i have no position in this bank, i have nothing against the company. let's talk bank of america. they are very well-run, a very good ceo. that doesn't mean they haven't made mistakes. they bought a hell of a lot of long-term bonds at the wrong point in the cycle. it's not a balance sheet

problem, it's more of an earnings problem. the earnings are basically flattish for the last few years up and down by just a little bit percentage. so, how are you going to make money in bank of america? you are going to need really two things. the fed needs to cut rates, so, that will help people's perception of the balance sheet. and you need no recession, so benign credit. could that happen? sure. so -- i'm actually the view -- the market thinks the fed is going to cut rates three times this year. i at this point don't have that view. i think the fed is still petrifies of making the mistake that voluminger made in the early '80s where he stopped raising rates and inflation got out of control again. so i'm not that bullish on the fed cutting rates. and if that's correct, i think it's going to be hard to make money in the major money center banks. that's not a company-specific call, that's a real macroey call, you know, it's hard to,

you know, make a long-term investment case for the banks, when you have to deal with so many macro factors like that. >> steve, as we sit here, u.s. debt, $34 trillion today. is there a scenario where there's a debt concern, debt problem in 2024? some sort of credit crisis that you're looking at? >> 100% no. >> 100%. >> no. >> no. in our business, we like to say, being too early is equal to being long, and there have been plenty of times in my career where i've been too early, but i'm not 40 years too early. you know, the people who are making this argument about u.s. debt have been literally been making this argument for the last 30 to 40 years. and they're still making it and telling you to buy bitcoin because of it. my attitude is, when you're 40 years too early, have a little humility. and keep your mouth shut. >> uh-huh. >> so, there's absolutely no evidence whatsoever that the dollar's going to lose its

reserve currency status. people still want to buy u.s. debt. they're not replacing it with chinese debt. so, you know, until there's a real problem in the u.s. bond market, i think we're just fine. >> speaking of humility, guy, as the kids would say, he's got a good fit. >> before we even -- the last time steve was on, i commented on his stylist. but you have taken it up -- >> well, you know, you put so much pressure on me, i got another new jacket. >> looks great. >> pocket square. and i have a whole, you know, this is all part of my new year's resolution, which is think ydeish, dress british. >> there you go. so, you manage portfolios, and we love to focus on the things that a lot of our viewers know you to be great at, but you manage portfolios across lots of different industries and you think about what generative a.i. did to the stock market this year, and that's really what infected the magnificent seven and really buoyed the stock market in a year where you just mentioned earnings, they didn't grow much. they were up less than 1% year

over year. >> but the expectation is they were going to be down 10% to 15%. >> right. next year, the expectation is they're going to be up 10%, 11%. >> correct. >> now that the stock market has realized a lot of the enthusiasm about this technology, but 40 years early, this is something that's going to dominate for decades, what do you expect it to do in 2024 for actual earnings, not just in the magnificent seven, but across other industries? >> you know, other than nvidia and maybe amd and, you know, maybe some microsoft, i don't think you're going to see that much of an impact on earnings in tech yet. it's going to be -- it's still going to be very story-driven. what i'm most curious about is, other than the very hlarge tech companies, nobody has a large a.i. story to tell. and the question is, is anybody going to emerge? and it's only day one of the year, so -- the best part of it being day one of the year, i haven't made any mistakes yet. >> so, you mentioned that you don't think the fed is going to

cut rates -- >> i didn't say that. i think the expectation that the fed will cut rates three times -- well, from where i'm sitting, i think is too aggressive at this point. >> what is right in your view? because the market believes there's going to be -- at least two, maybe three at this point. >> i think the best -- if you had to lay your life on the line, i'd say one. >> one. >> unless there's a recession. if there's no recession, i don't see any reason where the fed has to be aggressive at cutting rates. >> that seems like a dichotomy what is within market consensus. we've seen rallies at the end of the year as that consensus has taken hold. i'm thinking, you know, solar, for instance, depends on funding, other sectors -- >> had massive rallies. i think that's probably not right. at least not at this point. >> steve, you must not think inflation is going to come in much then. if the fed is only going to cut once, right, like -- >> i think it's -- i think even if inflation does come in, if

i'm the fed, and i'm looking at the voluminger lesson, i say to myself, what's my rush? inflation has come in, if i don't -- if i'm not aggressive -- i can always cut rates tomorrow, if things get weak. but if the economy is still flying and inflation's come in, why don't i keep rates here? i mean, look, nobody calls me to consult. i'm just giving you my opinion. >> what should we wear today? you are on that. >> exactly. so, if i'm in powell's seat, i pat myself on the back, say job well done. and the risk -- my real risk is that i cut rates and inflation resurges and then i have a real problem. if i don't cut rates or if maybe i only cut once and i just sit there and wait, i can wait. i'll see how the data goes. that's what i would do if i were in their shoes. >> you mentioned the run for solar. housing has had a huge run, as well. >> i don't think housing stocks are justified.

i'd say residential solar is not justified. the home builders have great balance sheets, they're able to buy down rates to their customers, so that the customers can afford to buy new homes and there's a shortage of new homes. residential solar at this point is still going to have a down year. how down, i don't know, but -- i haven't seen a data point yet in residential solar that would make me be positive. i'd like to see one, but i haven't seen one yet. >> what about, again, in a world where the market does have rotation and we talked about the vulnerability of, you know, multiples and high multiple, but the sectors that include health care, energy, staples, and look, let's be clear, utilities and staples got hammered a good part of last year. that seems interesting. >> youutilities, i think, had just a horrendous year last year and there is really no fundamental issue, it was a pure rate play. so, if you have a benign rate environment, i'd probably rather

own utilities than most staples at this point. >> steve, great to see you. happy new year. >> thank you. >> great outfit. >> his wife is watching right now, by the way. tremendous -- you should be proud of yourself. started the null yew year off w bang. happy new year. a lot of the rally, and steve is still here, but i'll say, was predicated on the belief that there was going to be 150 or so basis points starting next year. i'm with steve on this one. i don't think that's going to happen. if the market starts to come to that realization, what happens to the broader s&p? >> mike khouw, what do you think? >> i think that the principle reason that you would have aggressive rate cutting is because it was economically justified, and what would justify it economically is we start seeing signs of a material slowdown. if you get a material slowdown, that's not great for equities, either. we are not that far off the all-time highs, the economy seems to be doing okay. as long as those two things persist, then i'm kind of with steve there, i don't really see

a big justification for bringing the rates in. of course, that does create a little bit of a problem for some of those that have said that maybe financials are investable here, that includes me, because, of course, then you don't really have the yield curve in the shape you want. but you know, obviously, if you start getting aggressive rate cutting, there's going to be a reason for it and that reason is not good for equities. >> what comes down if rates are only cut once? >> what comes down? >> yeah, what rallies hard on the notion of three rate cuts -- >> high multiple tech. i mean, you look at the companies that have the longest duration and have trouble making money in a high rate environment. >> unprofitable tech. >> yeah, but i think we're all saying -- if we only cut one time this year, i think it's a great year for equities. >> really? see, i think -- >> means the economy's doing well. eps is growing. >> or they're just stuck in a low growth, you know, high inflation environment and to me, you know, we spent so much time talking about the long and

variable lags of fed policy and we haven't felt it. not in the economy this year, if you think of some of these gdp prints, we haven't seen it in the stock market. that was discounted last year, right? and so, like, i just say to myself, it's a very confusing picture and it's one of the reasons why i wanted to ask steve why he doesn't think why we're going to have three. because the other scenario, and the fed chair said this at his presser a couple weeks ago, they're not going to wait until inflation gets to their target. he said that explicitly and i thought that gave a boost to the stock market, because it said something more than what the dot plots were suggesting, so, if we start getting weak inflationary readings, you should assume that the fed is going to cut more. and that should be good for stocks. coming up, a red flag on china. president xi jinping warning of a stormy economic picture as the country's recovery loses steam. the global impact and the beaten down names that could be ready for a rebound. plus, talk about a new year's resolution. one top bank analyst forecasting citi to double in the next three

years. why he's so bullish on the name, and do our traders agree, when "fast money" returns. this is "fast money" with melissa lee right here on cnbc. all right, tandy, what's it gonna be, the drink made from whatever was laying around, or the one made with your drizzly haul? drizly! stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. drizly. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) with the push of a button, constant contact's ai tools help you know what to say, even when you don't. hi! constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

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welcome back to "fast money." chinese stocks kicking off 2024 in the red, with the fxi china large cap etf dropping more than 3% and the mchi etf down 2.5%. the drop coming amid renewed worries about growth overseas. president xi jinping making a rare acknowledgement of china's economic difficulties. the remarks coming just hours after official data showed a contraction in china's manufacturing pmi for december. so, how worried should investors be about these latest dispatches from beijing? tim? >> well, i think you are probably encouraged if there's an accurate assessment of where the economy is. there's got to be some stimulus coming. there's got to be something that the government recognizes they need to do. the acknowledgement of structural problems with china's economy is also good. and if anything, it might -- you know, not outwardly and might

not be an admission of this, but it means some of the geopolitics have to thaw a little bit, in everybody's best interest. now, back to the chinese stock market. the nice thing about investing internationally, you don't have to invest in china. there's been a lot of great stories to invest. japan's been kicking it. a dynamic even in korea, where you with own technology. we know taiwan, taiwan semi, has been a great place to be, but i do think china is a place selectively that you can't ignore in '24. and i think you have to have some trading strategies around having stocks. i don't believe in necessarily tight stops, especially in emerging markets and highly volatile stocks, because you can get blown out, but you also need them. i'm not giving up on china. you have some private sector day tach data. who is positive on china? nobody is. and the market trades that way. that's good to be on the other side of. >> i didn't know baba had a third of its market cap in cash and the ability to buy back shares. i read that today and i was amazed.

last year, they bought back -- they reduced shares by 3.3% using their cash. they could potentialry raise their dividend. i don't know if that's enough to overcome the larger macro worries, but the fundamentals here, you know -- >> yeah, still can't get out of its own way. >> yes. >> we have pointed this out a number of times. there have been eight, nine, ten times where alibaba's rallied 35% to 50% off its lows. yet for some reason, we've been meandering around this 74 level for quite some time. i'm with tim on this one in terms of sentiment without question, but i'll say this, as well, the fxi can't get out of its own way, as well. if we can put up a long-term chart, go back 16 years, we traded down to $21.50 back in '07-08, as well. these are huge levels. if it gives it up and tests that 21.5 level, something bad is going on over in china. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. new year, new citi.

one top bank analyst doubling up, literally. where he sees shares of citi heading and what it could mean for the rest of the banking sector in 2024. plus, crypto can't wait. bitcoin passing a key level, as investors look ahead to a potential etf approval. we've got our bitcoin baller brian kelly to help break down the price action. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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and profitable firm and i think earnings will double over the next three years and as investors catch wind of that, i think the stock will catch a better bid. >> that was wells fargo's mike mayo explaining a bullish call on citigroup. he expects shares to double over the next three years and says there's a 25% they could triple in that time frame. citi's stock had a turbulent 2023 but ended higher by 13%. mike khouw, where do you stand on citi? do you agree? he was saying also that, you know, investors would say, stop talking about citi, we don't want to hear anything about citi, we're done with that story. >> you know, it's interesting if you look at the bigfinancials, how there's really been two stories in terms of valuation. if you look at names like jpmorgan and morgan stanley, which is really more of an asset management company, these are companies that are not trading at historically cheap valuations, but then you look at names like bank of america, citi, and wells fargo, and each for their own reasons is trading

actually cheap relative to their own historical multiples. now, bank of america case, steve actually made mention of this, they took a little bit of a wrong-sided duration bet when rates were very low, and that obviously helped justify where that one is trading. but i obviously think that, you know, and wells fargo had regulatory problems that prevented them from going, but in citi's case, you know, the valuation story, i think, is probably enough of a back stop that if you are looking to get long one, this is one that you could choose. we are in the name, actually. >> jpmorgan, by the way, is just -- under a dollar away from a record high at this point. >> and again, jpmorgan has been best in class and -- for a reason. and it gets a multiple and it gets back to the valuation. mike is a fantastic analyst. he's a fantastic analyst, because he's got opinions, whether he's right or wrong. i mean that. in other words, if you are out there and you make good arguments and you make strong statements and let investors figure it out, mike's out there, and i kind of agree with at least a lot of it, i think the valuation is very strong.

there's a turnaround going on there. there's a profitability plan. there's a story here, if we have normalizing credit, this is actually very good for citi bank. i'm long the stock. it's had a 40% move off that bottom. a lot of that has been since that november 13th cpi, which for all banks, it's been a good run. i'll take that call. >> citi reported on october 13th. tangible book is $88, give or take. you you can do the math. it's tradingal 66% tangible book. i'm not suggesting you should get to tangible book, but it should be 85%, 90%. i'm glad you mentioned sgr p m jpmorgan. we've put in -- made an all-time high, it closed right there, but this goes back to, i think, december of 2021 levels, so now it's incumbent upon the bulls to further prove themselves in a lot of these names. jpmorgan at the top of the list. coming up, bait coin break through. the crypto surging past $45,000 as investors hang their hopes on

an etf approval. the decision could be just weeks away. brian kelly is here to help us lay out what to expect. that's next. and the pharma stock that could be so bad it may be good. pfizer getting a boost, but still has a long way to go to recoup losses from 2023. could the name be about to turn over a new leaf? we'll debate that. don't go anywhere. more fm nm in two. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ )

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks kicking off the first day of the year. the dow virtually flat, but managing to close in the green. the s&p losing half a percent, and the nasdaq taking the biggest hit, down more than 1.6%. its third negative session in a row. but casino stocks beating the house today. all with nice gains. and bitcoin kicking off the new year with a robust rally. the currency hitting the 45,000 mark earlier today. about a month ago, our next guest correctly predicted that bitcoin was in the early stages of a bull market. let's bring in brian kelly. happy new year. >> yeah, right back at you, happy new year to you all. >> all right. so, why shouldn't we believe

that, you know, the bitcoin etf approval isn't a sell the news event. it seems like there's so much riding on this approval. so much of the rally predicated on that, that when it happens, you know, what next? >> yeah, right, i mean, listen, as a trader, my gut always tells me things go higher, i get a little bit scared, right? so, i do think a lot of the speculative fever around the etf is probably reaching a crescendo this week. so, yeah, could we get a selloff, sure. but i think that would be a selloff, you know, a dip to buy, because remember, there are still a lot of people that have not been able to buy bitcoin for their portfolio. so, even a 1%, 2%, 5% allocation in i.r.a.s, from private wealth managers, they're going to be buying the etf over the year. and it will serve on the four on the floor drum beat for the rest of the year. >> thank you, b.k. let me come right back at you. before you eave, make sure you wish guy a happy new year. i know you are also somewhat

enthusiastic about what could happen with ethereum and a lag effect here. i care more about your view about the broadening of the entire crypto space. polka dot or some of these other names, are they going higher, are you vinnesting there? because that, to me, is a lot more important than what bitcoin does from here. >> yeah, i think that's a great point, tim. when we talk about stocks, we talk about the breadth of the market and the breadth widening out, and that's usually the sign of a healthy bull market. we're seeing that in crypto right now. you bring up names like polka dot, or even solano, or some of those -- those aren't second tier, those are higher in the first tier, but you're starting to see the rally broaden out and most importantly, you're actually seeing from some of these crypto-currencies actual things being built on them. we're seeing decentralized exchanges getting a lot of activity. we're seeing decentralized lending and places in the defi space starting to get a lot of loans going out there.

and a lot of total value locks. so, all the indicators are telling me that the bull market is broadening. the fundamentals are supportive, and, you know, i think, again, i think we're probably in the beginning of this 12 to 18-month bull market, which should spread to the rest of the currencies. and to answer your question directly, i am investing in all of thoses. >> you just mentioned how retail is buy into their i.r.s.a.s, wh about institutions? you've been talking about this wall of institutional money for years and years. and when i think about futures were listed on the cme back in 2017, could this be a big boom for some of the exchanges, too? if large institutional investors are going to take chunky positions in the etfs, there's going to be options created on them, talk to us about that sort of activity. >> yeah, i think that's a really interesting point, because what we've seen in other traditional markets is the activity starts

in the spot market, but then once the institutions arrive, it is quickly eclipsed by the der riverty market. and most commodity markets, the futures and options markets are multiple the size. i would expect activity there. the other interesting part of that is, you actually might tamp down a bit of volatility in the crypto-currency market and bitcoin because you're going to have multiple players, some people hedging, some people doing basis trades, some people just doing options strategy. so, you might see less volatility once the institutions do arrive and start playing those games. >> wow. imagine if there's no more crypto winter. b.k. -- >> don't jinx us! don't junctinx us! thank you, melissa. >> guy, he said happy new year. >> i heard that. i heard that. mike khouw, we mentioned some of the stocks that had runups along with a coin base, et cetera, what else do you think will

benefit here? >> yeah, i mean, well, coin base is one of the ones i was not that enthusiastic about in all of this, though i saw bitcoin going higher. one of the things i found very interesting about the coin base situation is that, you know, they got their revenues not even up to another 3 billion, you know, think about it, at their peak, they made nearly $4 billion in net income. in other words, what was happening is that it was sort of a disconnect or a decoupling between the profitability of coin base as an exchange relative to the price of sort of the best-knowncryptos like bitcoin. if you have other names levered to it, simply because their hold it, you're going to think about microstrategy, for example, which kind of like an integrated oil company is just a holding of -- of bitcoin or one of the miners, like a marathon digital or something like that. they have a very direct connection to the spot price. and kind of to b.k.'s point here, too, i think, you know, the etf is definitely going to

get less options listed on it quickly, because it's going to meet all the criteria in terms of the number of shareholders, the shares traded. and that's going to binge in a whole new cast of investors and traders participating in the space. >> all right, coming up, boosted. pfizer may have been under the weather in 2023, but one of our traders thinks that's a perfect setup for a buy. and tesla and rivian out with their delivery numbers who the big winner was. that's next in two. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity

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every time. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall. welcome back to "fast money." big pharma kicking off 2024 with big games, buoyed by an upgrade of moderna. even pfizer saw some strength. the drug maker was down more than 43% last year, its worst year on record, but saw a bump of more than 3% today. dan was saying today that he was taking a look at this. and in the vein of, you know, mikey, he likes it kind of thing -- >> wow. by the way, there are rumors about poor mikey. >> no, he didn't --

>> don't besmirch -- >> pop rocks. >> we don't traffic in rumors in this show. >> couple weeks ago, we were all talking about on the desk, your pfizer and karen's pfizer. the stock was down to 26 bucks and this was december 13th or 14th. kitchen sinked the 2024 results. and it was a huge volume day and a couple of days. we said, it probably looks interesting here. like, the upside, downside risk reward. when you think about what's happened here from a fundamental standpoint, from a sentiment standpoint, no one likes it, glp-1 thing fell absolutely flath. th there's no catalyst. but it had a bit of a washout, and we can pull up a chart here really quickly. and you say to yourself, this thing just got above the downtrend that's been in place for a year. it's been in place for multiple years and it could be a quick shot to 35 bucks, you know what i mean? at that point, you probably sell it, because it probably is extensive, devoid of catalyst, and you're right back into buying better stories with better pipelines. >> well, mega, you know,

megapharma had a terrible year and it wasn't just pharma. look at bristol miers and a couple of the other names and even a j&j lagged dramatically. there are catalysts, and if you -- for pfizer, again, there is at least, you know, a phase two oral glp expectation for something to come out in the first -- in the first quarter, you have something on gene therapy. i think you've derisked the covid vaccine story in pharma. excuse men, in pfe. so, it's a name i'm long from higher up. the problem with calling this value is part of the reason why the stock's stuck where it is. you look at a moderna, and they came out there today and moderna, which is up 68% in, i don't know, three weeks? and this is a company with a lot of cash in their balance sheet that said they're going to grow sales by 2015. they got an upgrade. it tells you what can happen with these names. i think bio tech is going higher and i think pharma is going higher. coming up, electric q-4 delivery numbers. we'll dive in, what it means for

the electric auto trade in 2024, right after this.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast

money." tesla and rivian reporting deliveries today. phil lebeau has the details. phil? >> and melissa, when you look at the two reports that came out today, generally, in line with expectations. a little bit better than expected for tesla. let's start off with tesla. production just shy of 500,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. the deliveries coming in at basically 485,000. better than the street was expecting. the street was expecting 473,000. in terms of deliveries for all of 2023, they did surpass their guidance of 1.8 million vehicles. an increase of 38%, compared to 2022. and then you have the question of, what is expected in 2024? the expectation is 2.1 million vehicles, that's theconsensus. though the tesla bulls are saying, look, i wouldn't be surprised if we get 2.2 to 2.4 million. those are the optimistic reports out there.

a possible catalyst is the refreshed model y, which is expected in the middle of next year, starting first off in china and then potentially coming over here to the united states. take a look at shares of tesla. remember, the fourth quarter financials come out on january 24th. we'll hear from elon musk after the bell. another ev company, china-based byd, not just evs, also makes plug-in hybrid e leg truck vehicles, delivered more than 3 million of those, when you put evs and plug-in my brids together. ev sales, tell la outsold byd for the full year, though byd is catching up. and then there's rivian. fourth quarter deliveries coming in at 13,972. roughly in line with expectations of 14,000, but production better than the company's guidance. coming in at 57,232. there you see full-year deliveries topping 50,000 vehicles. we will hear from the ceo of rivian, as well as get some perspective on all of what they're expecting for 2024,

that's coming up february 21st. melissa, back to you. >> phil, was there any expectation that we would get any numbers on cyber truck? >> no. i didn't expect it. i don't know anybody who expected that. there are people that done some modeling that maybe they might have delivered up to 2,000, but that modeling or produced up to 2,000, that modeling is st strictly -- you got to look around for that, but nothing from the company, and i wouldn't be surprised if we see limited commentary during the financials on the 24th. >> all right, phil, thank you. phil lebeau. guy? >> look at tesla long-term chart. we've been in a downtrend since halloween of '21. uptrend since january this time last year, when it traded 105or so. we're in this pennant formation. it's going to break one way or another. it's not coincidence that the ranges get narrower and their roarer each day. just wait for it to break out and let price be your guide. >> why do you say halloween and boo and --

>> i think he's making fun of the boo. >> no, i actually like halloween. >> he says boo all the time. >> that's the holiday season for you. >> but you're a grinch when it comes to new year's. >> gravitating towards the wrong holidays. >> whole new year. fresh start. up next, final trades. i think i'm ready for this. heck, yeah! with e*trade you're ready for anything. marriage. kids. college. kids moving back in after college. (applause) finally, we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna... ♪

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it is time for the final trade. on this first trading day of the new year. mike khouw? >> not a great sector in '23 was energy and the utility space in the area is the midstream. i'm looking at kmi. >> tim? >> it is great to be back with you all and if we haven't wished everyone at home and guy a happy new year, we'd be remiss. i would be remiss to not point out the breakout we're seeing in the ibb, even the xbi, but i like the ibb, i like the bigger names. i like the concentration. that's a two-year breakout. >> dan? >> yeah, tlt. i'd be a seller here. rates higher, tlt lower. what's going on over there? >> guy? >> it's funny, there are publications that come out, i

found myself -- did we see this? do you -- look at that! >> wow. >> ambition. in her dna. and we know that, every night. >> "wall street journal." exxonmobil, sister. >> happy new year to you all out there. "mad money" mid-mission is simple. to make you i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always hope for the consumer and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> i'm cramer. welcome to med money. just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but keep in context. call me. tweet me at jim cramer. first day of the year.

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