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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  January 2, 2024 6:00pm-7:00pm EST

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found myself -- did we see this? do you -- look at that! >> wow. >> ambition. in her dna. and we know that, every night. >> "wall street journal." exxonmobil, sister. >> happy new year to you all out there. "mad money" mid-mission is simple. to make you i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always hope for the consumer and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> i'm cramer. welcome to med money. just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but keep in context. call me. tweet me at jim cramer.
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first day of the year. the dow inching up 26-point the s&p sinking .57. and the nasdaq 21.63%. it could be tough or brutal for some stocks. but i think temperate. the kind of thing that happens after a huge bull like 2023. a lot of anomalous first days in my career. this one was 1997 we were down at disney world. the kids were small then and we were about to go on the "it's a small world after all" ride for the fourth time. i'm fighting parents and children. i was in full on panic mode screaming at the traders that my hedge fund office about the first day action on the cyclicals. bethlehem steel, phelps socks and they were going crazy on the upside. and here i was stuck waiting for a boat to go by so we could slide in and saying, it is a world of tears and a world of
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fears. naked without a cyclical in the darn portfolio. unlike the small world, this was the performance of a lifetime without me in any kind of role. just like today when the snacks and pop tarts bowl where dreams come true. the cereals, general mills and merck all scorching. this time, i was upstairs at the new york stock exchange missing everything. the performance of a lifetime. the trustee procter & gamble. it didn't take long for the entire collapse. this was doomed when we started some of the weaker quarters. of course in reverse and then some. i'm not saying the food and drug stocks have picked out but i know the first day of the year are tales of nothing. only knows that some people believe the great runs in the
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magnificent seven could continue for now. down, form and food stocks. welcome to the beginning of the year, folks. were hopes is eternal. it is time to have the day in the sun. and this could be the end of the fed rate hikes. which means buy stocks. maybe the election year, buy stocks. everybody means, buy stocks and that is all i hear from everyone i bumped into and talk to. except where i'm talking about individual companies. sooner or later, that could have an impact too. sure, stocks can change direction with the new year kicks off but they rarely stay changed unless something else has happened be on the calendar. so what should happen? according to my crystal ball, people take problems with the best of the best and they define the market. in the magnificent seven and friends. i thing investors will use the cash to invest in companies
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that have not gotten any respect for ages and i think the banks, somewhat with drugs and foods. why not, they have gotten too cheap for the markets. the stocks that roared when wall street was worried about a recession. something like generative ai can transcend the market. but i think the economy is coming back and you have many more sectors to choose from. that is what i think happens. what else? a big issue for 2024, like the big issue of 2023 is, unfortunately, what will the fed do? right now, people are placing bets all over the map where they were repeatedly wrong. and worried about recession. of it does not cut enough, it could cause a recession. somehow, all is a recession. this is the kind of nonsense that will drive the action of much of the year because portfolio managers won big pools of money based almost entirely with what the fed does or might do. i don't want you to be one of those people. don't be one of those people.
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every comment from jay powell or statement from the fed and every utterance by anyone. you name it. don't be one of those people. me, i say to hece with these traders. there are others that will do better in an environment where the feds are no longer treating and these are not the ones at work today. history says after the fed is done tightening, there is a sense of relief that allows all stocks to rally especially industrials. being the end of the year, people want to buy down losers. and this continues until you see the next round of earnings and upon further review in the lower level. they come back to the stocks at lower levels because they are uncertain about whether there will be a recession or not and then when you are simply uncertain of what stocks to buy. we expect artificial intelligence and software bubbles will be pumped. when the stocks come down to reasonable levels. however, that only happens after a difficult irregular
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where the crowd is facing this with jerome powell. what should you do? it is a belief in what will really happen. rather than getting caught up in endless debates over the fed's next move her right now, we have an economy that grows with some strength and some tapering inflation and that should allow us to pay reasonable price for stocks. with a set of, wall street pays more for the banks and the industrials while paying less for the magnificent seven and the enterprise software. i like the stocks that have not run yet as an extension of ai. this is a smaller amount of tech stocks that work in 2023. how about pharma? retail? i think they're getting there arms around the software problem. the oil is difficult. we grew so much crude in the country that it is hard for prices to go higher and stay there. and the end, you need to find stocks you can make peace with. because you believe in the
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companies behind them and what management can accomplish. as i tell cnbc investment partners every day, i think you will be fine if you stick with stocks reasonably valued. so not dramatically more expensive. i know the pedestrian way out. cheap stocks rally. they meet in the middle on the deck is reshuffled. give or take the endless flop and shop. that is how stocks can have a decent move. not as much as last year but a good return nonetheless. i think meaningfully better from what you get from cash from the sale of them expecting . tyler in california, tyler. >> hello. how are you doing, jim? >> doing well. good to talk to you. what is going on? >> about the stock in the low 80s on the 21st, i bought it and then 22nd, in verse head and shoulders so i started buying up. today, the stock across the 200
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day average. i would like to know what you think of moderna. >> i felt moderna was just too cheap and i said that many times. i cannot believe the stock is finally getting its due. maybe we are finally far enough away from the covid hangover that people can see what i see which is that this is a company that will love revolutionary technology. joe in indiana. joe. >> mr. cramer. sir, you have been talking a lot about parabolic stocks and i think i have one by the horns. chipotle. >> wow. ship chipotle stock has been a rocketship. i would like to think of it is not parabolic and going a lot of time between 1800, 2000. but if you feel that that is a parabolic move -- i don't think so, but you should try something because it has been a tremendous winner. i'm against those who say not to take profit.
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i like to take profit. let's go to sam and pennsylvania. sam. >> i have gotten exciting one for you tonight. >> every now and then, we see a trend evident with on running. the company is doing fantastic. i'm running myself. i have got to say that they make a better shoe than nike and it is not just me but all of my college running friends. this shoe is the real deal. a look at the sales and i see growth that 74% in 2022. it looks to me, the valuation looks expensive but this looks like it could be the next lululemon and i'm curious of what you think. >> you know what, i have a pair of them for the holidays too. i was absolutely thrilled. other people around the table also got them. i am a believer. i find sometimes i'm very lonely but then there is sam and pennsylvania telling me he agrees with me on holdings could be a big winner. nike still has a great share though. let's go to joe in new jersey.
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joe. >> hello mr. kramer cramer. thank you for taking my call. i'm happy to be diversified so i don't take a big hit. >> i like that. i like that a lot. what is going on? >> with the reasonable high dividend, is it time to buy kraft heinz? >> look, this stock was at 30. it is up 42 for the high. at 38. it does not have a lot of growth. i will have to say no. i don't want to buy that stock. there are others with better growth and those are the ones i want to buy. >> i think your best bet to ensuring a strong return is to buy stocks you believe in. relatively valued compared to the s&p 500. slash after the run we had in 2023.
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reasonable. that is what i feel. mad money tonight. the first trading day of the year. on looking back at the top five dow performers from 2023 to get a sense of what the new year could hold. and then come looking at the winners, it is just as important as analyzing the losers. and is it time to start preparing for a pull back after the 2023 late year run? i will go off the charts with the legendary larry williams to find out. so stay with cramer! don't miss a second of mad money. follow at jim cramer on x. tweet cramer. hashtag #madmentions or call us at 800-743-cnbc. miss something? go to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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people will look back on 2023 as the stock market defied so many bear. think about the yield curve. this rigid adherence to orthodoxy with high short-term interest rates. many investors were the feds and should have been all in the stock market plain and simple. over the most of stocks to own? the industrial average. only because there are household names anyone can get. to an obvious? these are the masters of the obvious. starting with the top five. stick around after the break for the bottom five. number one performer, salesforce with a 98% going. i scream this from the rooftop for years on end.
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many of the top performers were investing club names. but a lot of the top performers were for the trust either because he believed in management or the product or to put up great numbers. what made salesforce obvious? creating fantastic share for value holders. when all things software fell off the cliff. sales force punched. it was tough going to the period but we persevered. we believe eventually it would clear a year of efficiency. we didn't talk about how we welcome to the more agitated investors. especially elliott who offers constructive criticism. you know i have become a huge fan of elliott after discovering again and again that they do tons of quality homework. not many entrenched ceos except
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the conclusions. no executive once a hedge fund to come in and tell them what to do even when the hedge fund is right. almost no one embrace these so- called breakdance but he did the opposite leading into the plans. why does salesforce have the most winners? they are willing to make major changes to boost profitability. putting through big changes to the board of directors and issued multiple statements agreeing with critiques from activists. he said they would find a better and more rigorous way to sell products with fewer sales people per account and the gross margin will go way up and it works. sales did not go down and profits went higher. if only more executives embrace the rigorous presentations from these smart activists first. all of that said, i expect the salesforce to get a little less love this year because the fed engineer is a soft landing. that means more money will go through for the cyclicals that needed an improving economy to put up great earnings and less from companies that do well without a strong economy the second dow success story is
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intel up 90%. it is about the relentless enthusiasm the ceo brought to a formerly downtown group of foreman -- engineers for bringing the product line up to date. and return to pc growth which is terrific. and got into under the high- performance computing business with great products. is intel back? let's just say it is more competitive then it has been in a couple years and it does not have cell phone exposure which was the anchor to levered. well done, pat! third best performer is another obvious picked. it is microsoft. a company that embraced ai in a successful way. with this expertise, they were able to commercialize ai by launching the copilot and bring to the market incredibly quickly. this was an instant success story and allow the legendary cfo amy hood to call about the initial sales numbers. she is an extremely circumspect
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figure. her enthusiasm to copilot on the conference call and the reception helped fuel the stock's giant sprint to the finish of 2023. note just nothing but net here. however, if you own microsoft and you have a big gain here, again, it is time to trim. part of your position. the bear makes money. the bull makes money. the hogs. i will tell you what happens to hogs. they get slaughtered. that is what i am saying, do not be greedy. it's okay. a blessing. the fourth best performer, apple whose view has shown very little revenue growth. this stock has a legion of haters. how could apple rally and not be regarded as so mediocre
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enterprise. growth of the iphone business but ignoring the service industry for people who buy from phones. this included comments about suboptimal service growth. but the bear refused to recognize apple's future products. there are so many growth markets now in the lesser developed companies like brazil and the philippines and indonesia and turkey. they assume that these places will produce this group of customers. the stock market knows better. apple selling for nearly 29 times. that is too high. it is hard to justify. if you want to trim, trim. the rally has been so strong. it might not be sustainable for now. especially when short-term party could be over. in the fifth biggest winner in the dow is falling up 37%.
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multiple times on this one. at the suggestion of my colleague zeroing in on how i could stick by a management team that couldn't shoot straight. through the travel trust. i gave myself credit if you are from the magnificent seven. where did i go wrong? it didn't know how long boeing would take to fix the operational issues. there is a plain georgia with her two commercial companies on earth. but operating on a true scale. if you are an airline, you couldn't get away. cash cost -- the truck read record was terrible. it wasn't bad enough for them to lose orders to airbus which is the only metric that matters. in the end, it was thanks to relentless thirst for flying post covid. for more than airbus to build on its own. with ai community focus on the
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big picture and ignore the details even if they were negative and tough to endure. here's the bottom line. yes, the winter seems obvious. they always do by hindsight. some just needed foresight to shine and it did not take much foresight to identify the dow's biggest success stories last year. they were right in front of you. mad money is back after the break.
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you always have to pity the five biggest losers of the dow jones industrial average. so many have bizarre extenuating circumstances. let's start with the walgreen boots alliance. september average after 2-point years on the job.
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stock prices down 30%. making good decisions and had a long plunge into healthcare. especially in a world where there was relentless competition from amazon and nonstop shoplifting. the stocks rebounded. after tim wentworth, a former honcho at cigna who did an amazing job as ceo of express scripts. i think the world of him. and i am not alone. otherwise we wouldn't be bouncing like this. this is the wentworth bounce. it didn't seem like it dyeing industry. the collapse of rite aid could have really help. of it means many of the righted stores get shut down. that would certainly give walgreens a chance to continue the transition to healthcare. plus, there is a belief that pilferage might be coming down but who knows where that came from. cbs headed -- cvs headed decent come back. i want to bet on a season healthcare program. and then chevron. if you live by the aisle we
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will sort, you will die by the wheel soared. and tumbling from the 90s to the 70s, there is not much you can do about it. the market produces so much oil that a war in the middle east can't push up prices. i'm impressed it was down 17% for the year. this is a tough one. the third and fourth biggest losers on adele are doppelgdngers. johnson & johnson and 3m. they have the same problem with litigation. dog by the inability to put these to bed. and asbestos is linked to cancer. and crushed by forever chemical problems also cancer. and the earplugs. hearing loss just intended for veterans. both with spinoff divisions. the j&j over the counter became can be. and 3m appearing to go to their divisions. i'm not quite sure the timeline. i think it helps the balance
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sheet. j&j is trying mightily to offer an astounding $8.9 billion to settle but the amount was rejected. because of recent big wins against j&j. i know that a price must be paid when something like this happens. but now an action suit brought by shareholders for fraudulent behavior leading up to the litigation. i don't know how bad it will be. but you just don't need the attention. one thing is for sure. while j&j stock was down 11% last year, it wasn't because of the products which are growing incredibly well. it is just a litigation. the legal strategy has been a loser and any hope of getting this case to the supreme court might not even matter given that two conservative justices have recused themselves. is there a way out for j&j? associate, not ideal. on the willingness to pay nose to settle in the case shelling out $6 billion. and hearing list comes from -- claims of veterans. and hundreds of water damage
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claims. there is zero clarity about whether this is the end of forever chemicals. i think the big payout is mostly behind them which is why the stock could rebound from $85 in october to $109 at the end of the year. finishing 20th 23 down 9%. does the company have enough earnings power to take the stock higher? a tough question. but i bet 3m can keep edging higher with these losses behind them. fifth-place, we have a tight. coca-cola down 7.4% and nike of 7.2%. coke is really another anomaly seek. doing a solid job of growing the business worldwide. but ko got knocked out by the weight loss drugs and the end of the recession which is the quintessential slow down stock. listen to me. i think the gop was wildly overblown at least for coca- cola. it is a soft drink company without much exposure to fattening foods. okay regular coke has a ton of
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calories but the divergence don't and there is no sign of declining sales because of the drugs. if you really think these drugs will christian food, maybe go long short and -- long coke in short pepsico. this is among the most beloved international consumer brands. i don't know if i can get behind it. i'm always a believer in the nike ability to bounce-back and bounce. it makes me worry that a comeback might be a harder time. bottom line, each of these losers as a comeback path only with j&j coming up shorter. thanks to the inability to put this engagement behind it. j&j, great company. really bad set of facts.
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michael illinois, michael. >> booyah mr. kramer. happy new year to you and your staff. >> right back at you. >> i am a first time caller. i have been watching your show since you started mad money. thank you for everything you have done for us. >> thank you so much for the kind words. i appreciate. >> it is great to talk to you. back in september, i started to take a position at hershey's but have been in the state of pain ever since. is this the time to add, hold or sell quicksand to sell, could you recommend a different food stock? >> the stock is down so much that i think it takes into account that there has been a cocoa shortage. it only yields 2.5%. let's just hold it. i think you hold this one. how about ron in kansas.
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ron. >> yes, jim. a long time listener. i'm looking forward to a stock that has a good dividend and possible chance for again to the upside. i'm looking at pfizer or bristol-myers. >> i'm looking at the same. i looked at pfizer this morning. i was going over this with jeff marx. pfizer with 5.6% yield. bristol-myers with a little better than four. i had the fortunate experience that i'm about to reveal to the jp conference to interview many a great drug company ceos and my goal, ron, is to be able to come up with answers for you about that very question. chris from rhode island. chris. >> what is going on, jim? >> just hanging out. how about you? >> i'm all right. >> what are we thinking? >> my question for you is, ali
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baba. is at the 52 week low? is that it buy? >> my colleague was talking about how there is really no actual performance gains in this thing. i am not going to get behind a chinese stock that does not produce a good return. it is tough enough being behind any of the chinese stocks. it is just too hard for me. that will be my view for almost all of 2024. aside from j&j, i think all these numbers that underperform luster have a chance to bounce- back in 2024. and if j&j didn't have litigation, the stock would be at 180. more mad money ahead. it was a new year. should investors treat this market like the one in 2023? i am off the charts to see if the run can continue. maybe it is time to take some off the table. i said that earlier. then we made a big move and said the holdings. i will reveal what it is and
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why i think now might be the time to take a closer look at these names. highly unusual decision. we have the lightning round. stay with cramer!
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a phenomenal run from november to december. a time to get more cautious on the market now that we are in a new year with a new environment. to think 2024 will end of looking different from 2023? you need a whole new approach to the market. how different are we talking? we are going off the charts with larry williams. has written over a dozen books. he has made a tremendous amount
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of calls nailing the market. he called for a huge meeting in november. and a cyclical analysis. he was very bullish in the 4th quarter. now he says kramer, the party is just about over. with the s&p 500 and the dow being led down by luster big winners. anally met the magnificent seven in france about to start rolling over. why? first take a look at the weekly chart of the dow jones industrial average futures with the cft [ cheering ] commitment of data in red at the bottom. every week, they lose before tracking for home gamers, money managers and commercial hedgers across various futures. williams likes to watch what commercial hedgers are doing. as he sees it, they have the most skin in the game and investors understanding what is going on. and commercial hedgers had become aggressive sellers of the dow futures. in fact, they are net short.
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a look at the prior moments when the commercials on from that long to net short typically followed by a decline in the stock market. so we see this and when we see the pattern, it is about to go that way. according to williams, it is a cause for concern. protecting the rally last fall, that was when the net long position was the longest. that is why this is a good moment to take some chips off the table. this is what we have been doing for the travel trust. and more on the magnificent seven later. you don't have the actual profit until you bring the register. even if you only sell part of the position. next, let's check out the s&p 500 march futures contract. a mouthful with the true seasonal pattern in blue. this is how a given security tends to treat at any given point in the year based on past behavior. we point out typically that we go sideways.
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we go sideways. at this time of the year. and then we head lower around the middle of january. this is very different from what the seasonal pattern was saying back in october or november when it was incredibly bullish and nailed this great move. always looking for these historical patterns and almost can project where the market might be headed. when you look at the action in the dow and 2023, i know this will sound different but you have to bear with me. it looks a lot like how the dow treated last in 1952. now, don't submit for smear. take a look at this. check this out. it is absurd how closely they mirror each other. and come on! you have to admit, if you didn't know any better, it is the same pattern. the pattern holds up. what happens say 1953? you get a big selloff. it doesn't mean we are doomed to repeat the history but we see a pattern playing out. it is not encouraging. and i can't explain why today's market would be near the early
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50s. and the eisenhower theory, i don't know. that is what has been doing. doesn't make sense? absolutely not. but the market doesn't always make since. of course it's not just 1952 and nike. this is the s&p 500 against an average of its performance in 1952, 1955. a great year to be born. 1985, and 2014. those are the four years where you found the 85% to what transpired in 2023. after these years on average, we get nasty declines into january. and a rollover. when these patterns topped out about this time of the year, we typically decline in february. it doesn't mean it will happen again. we see so many historical analogs playing out the same way. you have to admit that it is a bad sign. given the strong correlations, he thinks he could see the pattern continue for at least three months. maybe most importantly, the
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market is losing leaders. what you are about to see is a little different and more negative. the big cap tech stocks are what he thinks are about to come under a lot of pressure. i think with the other groups take over. the leaders get executed in the home market tends to go. and that's why they rely these technical tools on the fng. made up of 10 large tech stocks including meta- platforms, apple, amazon and google. all last year, we heard about how these stocks are pushing the average to new highs. even as the rally broadened in the 4th quarter. however, this remains important and if you searching for historical patterns, larry found the etf proxy for the group tends to march that the beat of a 160 day cycle which is in blue here. all stocks go through price
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cycle down and back up. that is natural. larry's methodology is the length of an up sick or down cycle telling us how long the move is likely to last. and the cycle system leader of the pack is about to take a nasty hit. obviously, this is far worse than every other chart that i have shown you. so this is what he thinks will happen to the dominating group last year that led the home market. wire he also likes to watch would big institution managers are doing and many look at the on balance volume which measures how much cash is being put to work on an update or down day. larry created something similar in 1969. the williams accumulation distributional line which measures professional buying or selling. you can see it in red in this chart and the s&p futures. larry said you need to keep your eyes out for moments of deferment between the accumulation line and the actual price when the s&p is making a new high but the red line is not making a new high, that is called a bearish tail. and this bearish divergence is exactly what we are seeing
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right now. as larry sees it, it means well- informed investors have been filed. this is the opposite of what we saw when the s&p made a new low. this bullish version clearly shows how money managers are starting to buy stocks hand over fist. right now we no longer have that on our site. now the current moment looks similar to june when s&p had a higher high and the red line made a lower high. pretty soon the home market went up. larry does not see this is the start of a bare market. he thinks urine bull market mode. but in bull market, you have short term obex or medium-term declines which is what he is protecting now and we are trying to make sure by demonstrating this that you know all the parameters. the bottom line. so just time to take something off the table because the rally is running out of steam. you want more details on the
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2024 forecast? i urge you to go to his a website which is amazing. mind you, i think some groups are running out of steam but there should be new groups taking their place. here are some of your favorites. like we did for the travel trust. for a member of the club, you could see everything we did before we did it and get ready for market wide sales will you put the cash to work at lower and better prices. mad money is back after the break! . coming up, cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit. it is a fast fire lightning round next. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it.
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it is time for the lightning round. the lightning round is over. are you ready? let's start with ed in new jersey. >> booyah, jim. >> first time caller and a longtime viewer. >> excellent. >> given the company's diversification, do you see this is a good growth stock? >> we buy long-standing investing name proctor and gamble. let's go to roger in massachusetts. >> roger. >> happy new year and booyah. >> happy new year back at you. what is going on? >> first time longtime a founding investment club
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member. >> what is up? >> thank you and all of your staff for all that you do for us. >> lng supplier shinier. >> election air. i have been telling people you want to be in should near energy. 8% yield. this is the way to go. how about laura lee and idaho. >> loralee. >> hello mr. cramer. i am thinking about taking money out of fedex and going to side water. >> it has moved too much. the rest of the group is down. i say move on. how about we go to rafael in new jersey. rafael. >> i am here.
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>> what is going on, my friend? my new jersey friend. >> that is right. i watch you every night. i hope that you enjoyed holidays. >> how can i help? >> i was hoping for a better result. is it a good long- term? >> it is great long term. it had a big year last year. i will say, and i debated doing this for my travel trust. to a take a little bit of what i used to call a schnitzel. i hope i don't regret that. i know it can get hit. it has periodically gotten hit. you have to have room to buy
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more. that has been the nature of the beast. we trimmed tech and not cost go. i think we are in great shape. we just can't look at it every day. it won't work like that. i need to go to dave and virginia. dave. >> booyah. >> thank you for serving. >> 19 times earnings. on the club member. the wall street trader confessions is my favorite book. tell me about dcrt. it is really nice. >> this means a lot to me. >> single properties i'm concerned about. because i'm too worried about what single tenant they own and retail. with that said, i like letter o. this one, i have been behind. it has been a nice run and i will stay with it. we will go to john in pennsylvania. john. >> happy new year, mr. kramer.
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>> thank you for saying that. >> i'm a club member. the last four months was insane . >> you get a swollen head and you get killed in this business. but thank you so much. >> a few weeks ago, a bunch of analysts asked some questions. what is your thought? >> people will be surprised about this. i would say you should buy it. this is a spec. if you can put up enough money that it will hurt you if it goes to zero, you do it. a lot of these are getting bids and that is the way i look at it. and that, ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> coming up, kramer resolves to stateroom for the portfolio. how we rebalance can help your holidays coming. next.
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after weeks of soul- searching with the investing club team, we decided to trim, yes, trim come our magnificent seven positions.
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we are not flippers. we are investors. at a certain point, we know that the bull will make money and the bear will make money and the hogs get slaughtered. we have been hogs and it is quite unbecoming. i would say we had big gains because they are theoretical. there are many ways to sell. this is what we call trends. not wholesale hatchet jobs. we continue to see substantial positions in the magnificent seven. we wanted to raise cash and leave room to buy back at lower levels. clearly we were not alone because the whole group got crushed. in 2000, i could not sell shares. could not sell because i had been an insider walk-up that kept me watching during a sickening decline. and use this in the same sentence. the money losing sight became public with one of these ridiculous stocks. made no sense at all. i recalled an article with a
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line drawing and showing me the 300 million-dollar man pig. i had forgotten. especially when the stock fell to the mid-single digits. no pick there. i've vowed right then that if i ever had a big gain on paper, i trimmed stock just to avoid turning into another. today, i can say we are not pigs in the investing club. we did not blow out of these position by any means. we took a little right off the table going to a low percentage of the portfolio. right now, i am more interested in stocks that have not had a big run and i'm on preserved gains, run away games that are hard to justify if you are thinking about greed. we always want to get big percentage gains. and 2024, i think they will be harder to come from, from the magnificent seven as opposed to other stocks that were beaten down or left behind. they picked right around the federal reserve indicated. they are all flatlined. it makes sense too. the magnificent seven began in
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the spring when the banking was at the new year. they had an amazing balance sheet and didn't need to borrow money in an environment that others might struggle to get financing. and then began to levitate delivering consistent earnings for the read -- federal rate increase like a now that rate hikes are a thing of the past, it stands to reason that the magnificent seven needed a rest. that means probably going down and others catch up. maybe a little of both. as investment club members know, i agonized over this decision because it is driven purely by discipline. i'm not trying to single out one company for stocks in purgatory. i still love the companies but i've a big believer that while conviction is important, is up and always trumps vision no matter what. since i started training and treating professionally 41 years ago, i can only think of a handful of occasions where the mantra has cost me more money. make that 42 years. calendar change. far more often, it saved me
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from major losses. i need you to remember this. if you have one take away from tonight's show, right now, discipline says you might want to take something off the table if you are one of last year's biggest winners if something comes up from a profit. i would like to say i am contested brewer in for brian sullivan. the red sea turning red, hot, the turmoil in the middle east ratchets up significantly. the new king of ev, how china left tesla and u.s. automakers eating dust. bitcoin starts off with a bang, but a parallel investors may want to see. digging a deeper hole, why new york and california could make their financial situation even worse. the last row

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