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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  January 3, 2024 3:00pm-4:00pm EST

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tickets are going five times face value. last night's game was on peacock. >> i think it was out of her hand when the lights on the back went off. i say swish. hawkeyes, beat the spartans. thanks for watching the power lunch. closing bell, starts right now. welcome to closing bell. the breakout begins with buying the dip in technology. it is happening as we speak. we are asking our experts over the final stretch if now is the time to step into some of those socks, or if you should wait a little bit more. in the meantime, here's your scorecard with 60 minutes left to go. nasdaq is still slower. microsoft and alphabet, they started to see some buying around noon. we are going to watch both of those closely here on out. there they are in the green. i also see that they were towing the line too. we are going to watch all of
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those over the final stretch. stocks are mostly lower. energy and healthcare, looking at some red days for equities. we are watching some interest rates. this had much earlier today, then it slipped back down after economic data came into the light. it was just about an hour ago as well when they showed most members agree to lower target ranges that would be appropriate this year. still obviously, a good amount of uncertainty around that. the debate continues for another day, another week, and probably for many months. it takes us to our talk of the tape hurried how are we playing the markets right now? investors are position for whatever a new year might bring. was asked ceo and cofounder of wealth management. coming here at post nine. two days of red in a row. we had some buying mega caps. you had to believe at some point, they are going to believe the decline in those stocks. enough is enough. >> i agree. we talked yesterday on the
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half, about why people are selling. nothing fundamentally changed. people of massive gains in the stocks. especially if they have held them through the fourth quarter. if they did that, and they were waiting for the opportunity to take the profit, i'm on the wealth management side. this is the way high net worth investors think. we are going to take 10% off the table. why would we do this in the fiscal year for taxes within april? let's push that tax liability a little bit further out without taking risk. they have various sectors and specific rallies in the market. i also think there are a lot of rebalanced activities. combine those two things on the scale with trillions of dollars. that's how you get these stocks throughout the year. looking like they are stumbling. fundamentally, the businesses are not stumbling. >> let's look at this for a second. the head of heads from clients on this program a lot, just
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send a note out before we came on the air. this is what he says, quote. a set of stocks, clearly valued. these are the best balance sheets on planet earth. they are generating and returning an immense amount of capital. they have the most direct leverage to the most attractive new theme. this is where i come out. continuing to quote. these stocks are not cheap. they are widely held. we can be a little bit more choosy on adding the bigger picture. i'm inclined to keep my eye on the ball. one day, or a day at a half, doesn't mean a meaningful dip hurried the point is clear. the stocks went the ay they did for a reason. they will remain in favor for a
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reason. >> i happen to think that alphabet and amazon are the two weakest stocks to own. i don't love the evaluation. do i wish they were 10 turns cheaper? of course i do. these are the cards in front of us. we don't always get to pick. this is the way we saw them last year were for everything. we have two of the biggest beneficiaries with ai. they go from a concept to an actual product. microsoft still has an early lead. look at the ownership event. they are using their own chips to train large language models. look at alphabets and opportunities to incorporate these tools into all of their existing products. this is literally hundreds of people on day one. these are companies that are going to benefit. i don't think they are so expensive that we have to look past them on an evaluation basis.
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i still want to be there. i want to be in other places too. you don't have to choose. you can do both things at once. energy got off to a great start this year. this is the third worst performing sector from last year. there is no reason why that couldn't continue. we have other things to do. it is not amazon or energy in my view. look all over the world. there is a lot of value. >> we know how it is represented, obviously in the markets. down 1.2%. he speaks to everyone. here is the take. this is where the small-cap makes sense. isn't it more favorable climate? this was most under the hammer when they were draining liquidity. i don't want to abandon the technology. it is not obvious to me that
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the low-quality exposure will persist beyond a quarter or two. as my father would equip it, buy cheap, get cheap. >> there was a catch of trade to his point. he started sometime around november. they had an absolute gang buster in december. it makes sense that they did. a lot of people need to make up for everything that they missed in the market. it is easy to go down and capsize as a strategy to compete with all of that. seasonally, in the time of year. we see it a lot. it doesn't continue throughout the course of this year. are there going to be earnings momentum actions to start price momentum's in the first half? it is a separate story. it is hard for me to make the case that we are going to see more consistent growth out of the russell 1000. certainly the s&p 500. i'm not sure where you could come up with that thesis. in the essence -- absence of
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that fundamental reason, he probably has some months to it. probably not a full year's worth of gas, especially compared to companies where we know that the consistency is already here. >> they came out just about seven minutes ago. the market gyrated a little bit, trying to figure out what is going on. six cuts, which the market was pricing in, always seemed like a little bit of a stretch. the bottom line, they are obviously talking about when they are going to look at the target rate. there is no real big consensus on a date or target. however, the market seems to be taking some level of comfort in the fact that it thinks that they are coming, even if six was a little bit aggressive to get way over to begin with. >> thank goodness we don't make these macro predictions, and base all that on them.
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i was not expecting 75 basis rate point hikes. four of them were consecutive. i thought they would have said on the heels of the many banking panic, that they probably have done enough. they kept going. they're going to give us those hikes back. in my opinion, they didn't need to do them in the first place. bigger picture. i don't think that we need six or seven rate cuts in order for the market to find stability. i think it on adverts. i think a -35 basis point is right here. we don't have any kind of major issue in the labor market. i think the stocks remain big and competitive. even with elevated money market rates. my bigger prediction is that we can take some power, and get rid of jerome. that is something that i think
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happens, especially given where donald trump is in the national polls. i think he wants to work for the same boss again. that is the big market moving events, if and when we get some inkling that i that is going to happen. >> let's bring in a senior economics reporter. watching the release of the minutes with all of us. i'm looking at a 10 year yield. this is at the low point of the session. we went down 10 basis points today. they always seemed a little aggressive anyway. the idea alone that they are talking about cutting, who cares exactly when? far different than they were talking a little year ago. even a few weeks ago.
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>> i'm not sure i completely agree with that assessment. i'm getting to that in a second. they know why all of this matters. it's all about wall street. they know how this curve might just invert. that's a pretty important moment for the market this year. you could have a situation where short-term yields are lower than long-term yields. it brings back things like floating-rate notes, and all kinds of things that can happen. they normally happen when you have a yield curve that is in a normal position. i just thought it was important to point out that i really think he has his eye on the right price. this is why we are talking about this. the guys on talking to, want to know when this happens and how this happens. this is the biggest steep trade right now. come back through it. i don't think the minutes provided have more information in the markets.
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this is when it comes to the issue of rate cuts. the paragraph that you are reading, it referred back to the federal officials projections. we had another discussion about rate cuts. it was really hard to find them in these minutes, other than the noting of the projections. what have they done? where it is right now, they would probably have a year for lower rates. there was no discussion of the magnitude or the timing. >> my overall point, the minutes don't upset in any way, the story that the market was telling itself. i'm not talking about the number of cuts. the mere fact hat the market thinks there are going to be cuts, it is pretty confident. it is confident that the fed is done hiking. i don't feel like they threw water on any of that. >> they were trying to be deep,
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broad, or persistent. this is how the discussion was about rate cuts. there wasn't much right there. i was doing a double take. where is this discussion? it is a simple notation, where rates are going to come down this year. that is what is in the projections. also, some discussion that the inflation outlook is more balanced. you probably need to also mentioned that there is this notion of the possibility of rates often going higher. we are looking for the most bullish or standpoints of the fed cutting six times. they are trying not to see where the fed is at. i think they are wrong with their own forecast. you have to go back and say the
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fed told me six rate cuts were beginning in march. that is not in this document. >> do you want to comment on what they said about the big wildcard? are they leaving before the end of 2024? >> i would like to hear more about that. he will stay through the end of his term if he is physically capable. it looks pretty fit to me. this is a thesis that would be convincing. >> this is what they were saying a few moments ago. >> i don't know anything more than you do. you are more well sourced than i am. just thinking out loud as a person who has managed to literally bring about the right amount of disinflation needed without raising the unemployment rates, granted, he missed inflation. no one is going to pin a medal to him. this is probably the absolute best case scenario, ending to the inflation battle that
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anyone in their most wildest dreams could have envisioned. who would stay after that? it is like bill belichick, staying after tom brady left. what is happening now? >> they need to retire. >> this is a bad idea. in the summertime, inflation mic drops from all of that. >> i'm just saying. this is where the polls are at in august did >> let me tell you where i am at. i don't think he is prideful. i don't think he stays on because of his pride. he stays on through the term in order to complete the term. he was mindful of his legacy. they are trying to bring inflation back down to 2%. i don't think he walks away in the middle of a term. >> steve, thank you.
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i appreciate that. >> they are talking about rate cuts. that was not the case. they could be interpreting the statement. i think the only reason why that was the case, was because the soft landing scenario right now is priced to perfection. we are looking at equities, and how much they rally. i think the bar was set pretty high for them to be surprise for the economic data. that is what is happening today. job openings are lawyer -- lower. the thing to note, is that you have positioning and sentiment. all of that is right here. this is where we are trying to get to the get back. >> do you think the bookcase is
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mostly intact for stocks for this year? i mentioned 5100. some of them are a little bit higher than that. maybe a couple are even more aggressive. >> we need to see this rotation. we are keeping an eye on the prize. we know that the fed is likely to cut rates. it is not just the federal reserve. it is the european central bank. this is the bank of england. we are trying to forecast this 152 rate cut presenters this year. they are looking at this policy globally, to look at it. that is really different for sacks. some of them will say that we are bumping into the squall of 4800 on the s&p. this is 244. you are applying multiple to
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it. as the year progresses, you should bleed higher. i would be looking to get a variety of sectors. >> to get there, you are taking the overall 19 times as a pe. are you taking over on the concessions -- consensus earnings estimate? now, you have to believe that you can have it all. we are slowing economic environments. this is not a crashing economic
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environment. >> this is a little bit faster. you are not investing in the economy when you buy the stock market. you are investing essentially for the comments. these are the five best companies on talented earth. it is not the same thing. it is inarguable that the 500 largest public trading companies are right here. margins never took that hit. this is a prediction. they are not going back to 1975. we are looking at the profit margins. they have been protected for years. they are going to be right. the labor market is cooling them off. we are looking at the stability and commodity within these
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places. if you are not betting on some sort of massive rewriting, you are looking at profit margins. why would you make the opposite bet? they don't want to be invested in these. >> i still have to believe that the economy is going to do well. they need to invest in things that i would think are like materials. they are sensitive to the strength of the economy. >> they have been outperforming. >> you're looking at financials and real estate. you are looking across the board. this is really catching my attention. s&p 500 weight index, is down just barely, even though parts of this sector are down 2%.
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they are looking at the investment opportunities that brought now. so many things could not work in 2023. this is because the fed was hiking rates. that was hard. that was hard to carry that higher cost of leverage. all of a sudden, the cost of leverage goes down. maybe the lower rates do spur economic activity. those are a lot of other things that could be participating in that. if you look at the market cap rate, versus equal rights, that is the largest since 1980. that is due to another line. >> i want to jump on the end. not only do i agree with you, i want to take it a little bit further. internationally, a lot of stocks came through this year. we never talk about it on television. we had some huge gains in different markets last year that not a lot of people were predicting. there was no reason to think
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that they could not continue as a theme for this year. consider the fact that all country world index is trading at a 34% discount from the s&p 500 over the last 20 years. the average discount has been 16%. overseas development market stocks, are twice as cheap as they have been over the last two decades. yes, you can give me all the reasons why it was 13 times versus 19 times. we have some good reasons. i will take all of that, and i will still tell you, that if we are going into a rate cutting cycle, even if it is a modest one, these stocks can work. you have the starting evaluation that is not just a little bit cheaper. it is a multi-decade level of discount that you are getting. you don't have to buy low quality. you can get that in japan, europe, and you could win. that is another smart thing that people are going to rebalance forward, and doing for 2024. >> thank you so much. we appreciate that.
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meanwhile, we are looking at this around 13%. they're trying to do this today. >> this is straight after announcing earlier today, it laid off 50% of its employees. that is about 15,000 people. they are going to simplify products within the core business. this is more than 10% on the news. they are strong so far in 2024. bank of america analyst, calling this from a top pick from this year. this is based around optimism. they are coming soon. >> all right. we are just getting started. roger allman is back.
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he's flagging two key headwinds that could derail a strong 2024. he will explain, and break down this forecast for the fed after this break. we are locked in for the new york stock exchange. you're watching closing bell, on cnbc.
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i'm good. are they too far apart? >> i don't think so. the fed in their statement, is exactly what you would expect them to have said. if anyone like us were responsible for that statement, the last thing the fed can do, is cut too soon. they are sending another rate message, just as they should. it can be reassuring to investors. i think it is. beyond that, the economic outlook is remarkably good. we are seeing stunning data. look at the latest data on the personal income. consumer spending. consumer confidence. look at the inflation data. take the last six months on core pce. analyze it. 1.9%.
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remarkable. none of us six months ago or 12 months ago, would have seen a growth data that we would have seen. atlanta fed tracker of 2.6 right now, goldman sachs, coming out a few hours ago. estimating high numbers for the year. together with this inflation, we have this progress. we have immaculate disinflation. it is positive. >> they don't sound like they are ready to cut as many times as the market is betting it will. how much does that matter? >> not enormously. for example, we project that their first cut will come n the middle of the year. this is in june. there would be five cuts before the end of 2024. whether it is five, four, or six, once the fed begins to ease, it is going to continue
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to ease. this is on a smooth, steady trajectory. there are four cuts in 2024. there are two in 2025. we have the reverse of that. i don't think it makes a lot of difference. once they start to ease, it is going to continue to do so. >> in other words, don't fight the fed. rules can reign supreme. >> they deserve a lot of credit. this was said a few minutes ago. they misjudge the inflation at the beginning. that was a big mistake. it was engineering it so far. we had a remarkable outcome. they have been set at the press conference. we think it is going to get harder. we think that was the quote. you have to give them credit. you can see 1.9% inflation. 2.5% real growth is right here. this late in the recovery, they should get a straight a for that. >> what about the makeup of the market right now?
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the clock struck midnight. somewhat literally. all of a sudden, they started to sell off. the market seems to be going through a reshuffle. i'm looking at it right now as we go through this question. they are now down 250. they are down more than 1%. they were trying to search to end 2023. this is almost down 2.5%. what do you think about it? >> i don't think we should make much of it. after all, the market had a red- hot, six-week run, going from the end of 2023. i think the market is taking a breather. it so often does after a run like that. it is hard to say how good the 2024 outlook will be for stocks. my instinct is that the worst that happens is neutral. this is probably somewhat better than that, just because
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the growth and inflation outlook, it is not too good. there are big risks. one is the u.s. election. very hard to tell how aggressive you view those risks as the year goes on. in particular, the middle these risks are right here. we are close to a wide war if we look at those events in the past 24 hours. that could be pretty negative. the election is going to be ugly, no matter how you think of it. may be investors will ignore it. maybe they won't. other than that, i think it will be a good year. >> what do you think ceos are looking at in terms of those big risks? is this a little bit closer with the political tensions that we have already seen? are they bubbling over with the surface? in terms of the deal flow which
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you care about a lot. >> the biggest things on the minds of ceos, six or nine months ago, so many of them are concerned about the likelihood of the u.s. recession. now, that is increasingly off the table. it is obviously positive. i think ceo confidence today is a little bit higher than it was six or nine months ago. that bodes well. >> we will leave it there. see you soon. >> joining us live. your playback and pullback playbook. bank of america, they are back. they will tell us where they are seeing stocks navigate the uncertainty, when we come right back. sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989!
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we are back facing early january jitters. is this just a pause in the
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markets momentum or the start? ceo of bank of america. happy new year. >> happy new year. to be here. >> what is your outlook? you are cautious throughout much of 2023. now, we have turned the kalmar -- calendar. >> we were so called balanced. we thought that stocks and bonds would have a reasonably good year. stotts ultimately took off the last two months of the year. we basically had a year as we discussed. what does that mean? fully invested. we connect spots here and there. this is most people, including us. we are certainly dedicated to u.s. large caps for most of the year. we haven't change their tune. balanced since next year.
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this is still high on preventability. it is really important. we are staying fully invested. most of the time, time in the markets is much better than timing the markets. you and i are talking a lot about this over the years. if you know the wedge in some of the markets going into a year, you have a reasonable chance of not performing but staying on goal. we got inflation out of the way. it's probably fiscal restraint. not to mention geopolitics. we can get that at bay. you are talking about hyper-t stability and earnings. we have yields that ave peaked. the fed is telling us what they are going to do. >> we are trying to read between the lines a little bit. they did not work too well. i take that as you saying that you did not have enough exposure to really catch that
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powerful momentum that they had last year. you said your playbook hasn't really changed that much. does that suggest that you are still not well overweight from those types of stocks? >> that was correct. we were neutral for most of the year. as the year progressed, and they had a six time outperformance, we maintained neutral exposure. when i said that these sectors didn't really work, you didn't have the defense is working. this is in a year most people thought we were going to recession. you didn't have the cyclicals working. it was bifurcated very much is self towards communication services, and a little bit of consumer discretionary's. sectors are so diversified nowadays, that using your normal sector rotation, is late or early cycle. it is now moving towards the factor that is working in the
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market. earnings momentum and high interest coverage, we can see that as part of the areas that we are going to outperform again. >> why aren't you more optimistic? this is a different way. this is where the fed was, to where we are now. the economy looks like it is progressing towards a soft landing. obviously, we are not there yet. that is the bet. the big bet is that they are going to cut multiple times this year. who knows when that begins? if the rates are going to come down, and the economy is going to be pretty decent, earnings, you would figure, would be pretty good. that is justifying a reasonably good multiple. what am i missing? >> you are not missing anything. you have nailed the story. we know what actually could come in that we are all worried about to balance out some of
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that optimism. you are becoming a little bit more of a realist. a percent returns in stock returns. that is good. these are somewhere around where the maturity is. we have high geopolitical risk, and u.s. political diversion that could also be there. we know what is going to be going on, when we have particular commercial real estates. we don't know yet. these are balancing acts and wildcards that could go throughout the year. i could say we are optimistic. >> what do i do? i'm looking squarely at it. they have progressed over this final stretch. it was a huge winner over that stretch from november 1st until the end of the year. now, we have had a rollover. it is down 5% in a week.
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are you a believer in the broadening of trade? did they get too far ahead of itself? >> it is a tough type of dynamic to watch. you are in this ong period between late and early. we have the next expansion. you can get a lot of head fakes in the lower quality areas. you saw the big move up, in addition to some of the other low-quality areas. i don't think they are right for a full upgrade. the full upgrade watch list is the same thing as emerging markets. this is from the small-cap. they actually have a sustainable rally. i just a couple of months. just 18 months or more. this is likely in 2024. you are seeing some sticky
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pricing power. if you can get that, that is where it is more sustainable. >> they are enough. when they started coming down, small caps started coming up. >> generally speaking, our belief is that you have cutting rates. these eels are actually too wide. not because you have an economic hard landing. they are going to try to feel that out. usually, these quality areas are not the ones that participate. it could be different this time. the playbook is something that they can't participate in. now, the market begins to slip out with expansion. >> we have to pull forward. take care. joining us here. up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close.
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>> rough day out there for a couple of renewable energy names. cloud security as well. we will evaluate which ones, when closing bell, comes back after this.
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we are less than 15 minutes from the closing bell. looking at he key stocks that we are watching. >> catch up these renewable
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energy names. they are down about 7%. they have gross stocks. they have solar energy names. they typically were hurt as these treasury yields were passing 4%. cybersecurity shares, they are down about 7% so far today. announcing that it would acquire cloud security company, ping safe. they are boosting this to provide security for product locations. no evaluation on the deal. up next, we are sharing some stocks today. they are down double digits. what it might mean for the rest of them as well. closing bell, will be right back. at is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to
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coming up next, the big battle over disney and tir he board. what it could mean for their stock over the long run. that, and much more, when we take you inside the market zone.
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with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley we are now at the closing market zone. we are looking at the crucial moments of this trading day. we have the latest activist action around disney. we have more behind what is behind that selloff.
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we have another 300 point loser. they are down 2.5%. they are getting ugly too. >> the market is pretty routine. they don't have volatility blowout. it seems a little bit like collective portfolio. we are trying to look at a straight line from here. i think that is the precipice that we might be on. it is a little bit deeper of a gut check for now. treasury market, also treating them within minutes. probably not for any specific reason, except the absence of any incremental action to expand on. >> we looked at the market selling off. maybe they have gone up a little bit. >> there was a comment about thinking about slowing the pace down for the boundary protection. they want to make sure there is going to be enough for reserves
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to manage all of that. maybe the market is latching onto that. the bigger picture, i think you have some soft, economic numbers today. it has people alert to the idea that the fed also seems to be paying more attention to the downside risk. it is seeing that as more primary. if i'm looking at the implied fred trajectory, raising these features, it is nothing like a precise forecast. it is not about people really believing every bit of it. it is telling you the optimism of how fast inflation can come down. these cycles gain momentum once they start. lending is becoming harder. all those things explain what the market is up to. >> we learned today, that we have some increased activist activity. what do we know? >> we call it swarming. they share 1% of a slew of activist news in its name in particular. quote, information sharing deal
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with activision investor, value act. they say that value act owns more than 5 million shares. representing about half $1 billion at current levels. under the terms of the agreement, disney can share strategic matters with value act. they are ot taking a board seat. this is coming towards the backdrop of different battles at disney. nelson has nominated himself. this is marking his second attempt at disney in two years. blackwell's, with a much smaller steak, launching another proxy fight this morning at disney. they have three nominees. this campaign is largely supportive of disney strategy, but critical of his fight. he told him this morning, that he remains undeterred, and as one source described it to me, they are looking at another campaign that is anti-disney. blackwell's, is anti-health.
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>> are you following that? >> as the world turns. thank you. with the latest on disney. they are watching the stocks. they are really weak. we are looking at it right here. under 14%. >> the weaknesses thanks to the downgrade that we saw. some of the expectations are trying to look at it. lower rates could actually be a negative for president joe biden. this has to do with the loan books. it is marking up the value of these loans to be expected for the future sale rices. we could have these borrowing costs start to fall. this is from a drag on revenue. we have price targets for them at $6.50. that is a 33% downside where those stocks were traded 28
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times. this year, they call that seemingly, quote, one of the highest evaluations for any sheet financial in this universe. trying to keep that thesis right there. double digits down, as you mentioned. competitive upstarts, following right here. >> we appreciate that very much. a lot of the stocks have really ripped towards the end of the year. these are really rolling. >> high-octane, both directions. this goes up 80%. it is very squeezing. it was just a short squeeze. it got blasted. they came back hard. there were not a lot of long- term changes of story in those involvements. they have a capital markets funded bank. they call themselves the technology company. this is depending on the day. we are definitely seeing a little bit of a different action in some of these areas.
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if it is more than that, it remains to be seen. the market is kind of absorbing it okay. i think 4600 are right here. this would be why they are seeing something more. >> two days in, looking at 2024, two days right here. that is how we are going to end today. i will send it over. >> closing lows are across the board. that is the scorecard on wall street for wednesday. welcome to overtime life. it has not been a happy new year for the bowl so far. traders are trying to go and look at this rough start to 2024. technology stocks, after a huge rally last year. we will have some names of the under the radar technology names that might be ready to take off. former vice chair reacts to

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