that trade? >> we'll see, judge, we'll see. >> sounds like a yes. >> farmer jim? >> qualcomm. a lot of ai applications on the phone will have to be done on the phone. that plays to qualcomm's chips. >> waste connection. it's not a cyclical business. >> thank you. i'll see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. is stronger than expected economic data throwing the fed's rate cuts into question? the ten-year yield just below 4%, the nasdaq trying to avoid its worst losing streak in over a year, as the mag seven are being called the lag seven. we'll debate if this is bad news for all stocks or just the high flyers. the promise of ai has been helping tech stocks but might revitalize downtown san francisco. we'll talk to a real estate investor making a billion dollar

bet on the golden city. plus, the stanley cup. not hockey. no, you know what i'm talking about. it's the status water bottle of teen and tween girls. the hottest gift this holiday season exploded in market share. that means trouble for yeti. we've got that story coming up. let's start with today's market action and over to dom chu for the numbers. >> those stanley cups, they're not water or spill proof completely. any way, kelly spoke about the magnificent seven. well, it's trying to find a little bit of footing so far today, and that's what is helping at least a little bit of the kind of tepid moves you're seeing within the s&p 500. just about flat on the session. 4708 the last trade there. the dow, the leader up about one quarter of 1%, 37,538, up about 107 points. the nasdaq composite, down to 14,571. a big part of that story is the big mega cap technology trade,

communication services. now, within that magnificent seven, the five biggest stocks out there, the so-called trillion dollar club, apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon and nvidia, all showing signs of trying to stabilize. nvidia is up 1.5%. apple is down about 1% again today because of another analyst downgrade from piper sandler who cited concerns from a macro perspective for apple this year. so those shares working on a four-day losing streak. microsoft was up solidly, but now flat on the session, down marginally. microsoft and apple could be on the verge of flipping that market cap leadership in the overall marketplace. keep an eye on that mega cap tech trade. and the stock of the day, another dow component, walgreen's reported quarterly numbers better than expected on revenues and profits, but cut its quarterly dividend from 48

cents down to 25 cents, because it's trying to maintain, it says, its long-term balance strength and preserve some cash. those shares down 7% right now. so an interesting story developing there with regard to the negative on the dividend side of things opposed to the positives. walgreen's boots alliance a big downer today. >> dom, thanks. so is the worst behind us or yet to come? one of my next guests says we've already seen a series of mini recessions across different sectors, while the other says a broad contraction is likely ahead of us. let's talk about it with julie beale and jay bryson from wells fargo. welcome to you both. jay, are you anticipating a downturn still? >> yeah. so kelly, i would say it's going to be a modest downturn. i would want to stress that. i don't think we're looking at a major pullback in the economy,

but we are starting to see some cracks in terms of the consumer spending, and the fed is still in restrictive territory. that puts some headwinds on growth in the coming quarters. >> so what would you say that implies for, you know, not that it's where you kind of have to make your calls, jay, but those expecting fed rate cuts and maybe in march, are they right because of the slowing economy? >> you know, kelly, i think march is a little bit premature. at this point, if you're looking for reading through the minutes of the january fomc meeting the other day, i don't think they're at that point yet. i think something would have to fall apart in the economy where you see a rate cut actually in march. could we see one in may? that's very possible to see one in may. but march at this point seems a little premature for me. but once they start moving, you know, whether it's in may or wherever, i think they start to move pretty quickly at that point to bring rates down. >> julie, what do you think is going on with the markets here? is it because the data better or

worse than expected? notably the ten-year yield has moved up. what do you think is going on as we turn the page on the year? >> looking at the minutes, it's clear that rate cuts in march are unlikely. something really falls apart, that's probably going to be what drives the rate cut. that's not good for equity markets. but i think that a lot of the buying that happened at year end was indiscriminate. it started at target on december 23rd, and you're just trying to find something for your cousin who you don't even really like that much. it's just buy whatever you can. now i think people are recognizing that we need to be a little more discerning. interest rates remain a little higher and longer than expected, so people are look back at what they own, and it's the time to be careful and selective about quality. it's so hard to predict what's going to happen. think of where the fed governors are right now for 2025. you have one of them at 5.5, and one at 2.5.

so they're going to be very data dependent, and there's not broad c c consensus where the market is going. >> where are you on the mag seven or lag seven? >> i think there's still opportunity in those businesses. they have much greater clarity on their ability to execute on the vision for ai, so it makes sense. but i wouldn't be overexposed to those businesses within sectors within the economy. you want broad-based exposure, but you want to own the very best businesses. so in tech, the mag seven, lag seven, those are the best businesses. but if you go to small or mid-cap, you really want to own the market leaders. those will protect you and still participate in the upside going forward. >> jay, what did you make of the minutes yesterday, and are we going to look back at those, where the fed meeting helps support the rally kind of quench

that somewhat? >> yeah. you know, i think so. at this point, you know, kelly, i think they are -- they're very much in a pivoting sort of mode, right? and i think the question is, how fast do they pivot? again, when julie and i was talking about earlier, it's hard to see them pivoting between now and march, unless something falls apart. the probability of another rate hike from here is very low. the question is, how fast to they move? i think they'll take their time. once they do start to move, they'll move pretty quickly, as they have done historically. >> what about the argument for victory cuts? a lot of people are immesplicit acknowledging just move the fed fund rate down to inflation so you are not tightening things more right now. >> i clearly agree with that. in terms of the real fed funds rate. if you look at the real fed funds rate, it's going to be roughly about 2% right now.

that's really restrictive right now. as inflation continues to recede going forward, just to keep up with that, the fed is going to have to be cutting rates. if you want to start the move back towards neutral, if we see slower economic growth in the first half of the year, which i think we will, then you start to -- you move back towards neutral. and so whether you want to call it victory rate cuts or whatever there, just in order to keep the real fed funds rate from going up further from here, they do have to be bringing the nominal rate down. >> they should be doing that now. i'm just curious, why can't they make the case for cutting in march? not because of what we have seen in past cycles, simply to just make sure they're not tightening? >> well, that's a very good question, kelly. i'm sure that question is being asked by at least some members around the fomc table. when you read those minutes, there's not a consensus there. there's some folks who still think that inflation is above target at this point. the question is how fast does it come down?

and what they don't want to do is they don't want to be cutting at this point, only to see inflation stall out at around 3%. and so i think they're going to drag their feet, but then once they start to move, i think they're going to find out they are going to be behind the curve. at that point, they're going to have to move quickly. >> interesting. yesterday, david bonson said we could see 100 to 200 basis points of fed rate cuts this year and thinks the market will be range bound for years maybe, because valuations are at 20 times right now. curious what you make of that discussion, where you come down on that? >> yeah. you know, i think if you look at valuations broadly speaking, you saw real rerating happen within small caps towards the end of the year. but they're still trading at a nice discount. so that's probably the place where i would be looking. i think my boss always ays, it's not stock market, it's a market of stocks, and you have to look each on an individual basis. so particularly when you look at small cap, there's lots of

opportunities. what i noticed is you're not playing for quality anymore. everything is kind of broadly speaking on an even keel. so you can find better attractive pricing right now on quality. that's an ideal market for a longer term investor like us. >> like you said, you do more stock picks. you have market access, you have aspen technologies, so it sounds like -- because the small-cap pick generally is much more controversial. you're not buying that index blindly. >> yeah. i really think that you cannot be passively investing in small cap. there's too many businesses that are non-earners or that have a lot of leverage and are economically sensitive. so the three businesses, you know, mulles is going to have a meaningful impact to earnings. aspen is a steady eddie, so well protected from outside sources. and market access, as we see more volatility happening in

fixed income, a lot of us are concerned with private credit. this is one of the biggest, deepest markets and will really shine if that comes to be. >> you think market access will shine if there's trouble in private cred snit >> yeah. if there is dislocation in private credit, it impacts the rest of credit. so you want to be in the deepest pools of capital. so players that can provide the deepest, most structurally protected pools of capital, those are the ones i think will flourish longer term. >> that is the first stock pick i've heard based on that. thank you both so much today appreciate your time. let's pivot to the home builders now. one of the groups that had been leading the market in this run-up, but trading lower to start the year. uvs downgraded pulte this morning, and some of the products saying armstrong world industries in particular could be a bright spot. that name got an upgrade to

neutral. shares of armstrong and pulte showing gains today. john, good to see you again. welcome. >> yeah, kelly, thanks for having me. >> broadly speaking, because i do think history is repeating itself a little bit here. we hear that home builders lead on the fed pivot. it seems like that has been true, but are we running out of steam there? >> i don't think so. i think the dynamics are favorable for the public home builders. there's little existing home supply. demand is resilient. the demand is being fulled towards the new construction market and here, the public builders gaining tremendous amount of market share. if you think about their balance sheets, the market share gains and ability to generate cash consistently throughout a cycle and they're better disciplined, you can make the argument for why these stocks should not trade at a significant discount to the s&p 500, which is one of the things that we sort of contemplated within the context

of this. >> given that positivity, generally speaking, why does pulte get a downgrade today? >> we still have 19% upside in the shares, so it's not a death nell by any means. the call is predicated on our belief that some of the more speck oriented builders have already seen more of a margin sort of normalization, if you will. back to levels that are more consist tent with precovid, but higher by 200 basis points or so. pulte, a little more focused on build-to-order, we think there's market reversion that will happen, and their margins will be best in place, but directional the way that's trending, and they're not quite as focused on targeting some of the first-time entry level buyers with the volume that some of the other players are on a relative basis. that was the call.

>> you think they might face pressures, are those coming from the top line or bottom line or both? >> good question. we'll see what happens with grades, but all builders are offering incentives, which are going to impact the top line. but they're going to impact margin. you couple that with the fact that, look, land costs are not getting any cheaper nor is labor or materials. cost pressures are going up in general. counter that, the builders have become much more efficient. much more efficient in how they're building homes. they're offering less options, and just doing things much cleaner than they have in the past. so they can offset a lot of this. but there are no shortage of cost pressures in the market. >> so why did you have a sell on armstrong just real quickly before we go, and why move that one a little higher today back to a neutral? >> i appreciate it. so look, i think forearm strong, it's a commercial ceiling tile manufacturer. and it's focused because of that on many areas of the market that

were slower. office is a good example of that. we're not making a big call that office will recover, but what we are saying is look, these stocks on the commercial sector side and armstrong in particular, are probably going to discount a cyclical trough at some point and the technology and growth investments they have should keep them best in place, leading market share. it's a good position stock, and this is the right time to pivot away from that sell. >> i'm just looking at the five-year chart to see if it is reverse correlated to work from home or anything like that. like everybody else that ran up in late 2021, it has struggled lately but had a big run from the middle of last year to now. is that a move towards people coming back in more or less full time? >> i wouldn't go that far. i think it's more of the fact that you think about the residential cycle, generally speaking, the commercial cycle is going to lag by 12, 18

months. so i think we're starting to see the investment community sniff around in that raw cycle. again, on a company specific stand point, they're doing a lot of things to support growth from a price of mixed stand point, which is encouraging. >> john, thank you. good to check in with you. appreciate your time. >> thank you. speaking of housing, homeowners are sitting on trillions of dollars worth of home equity. as interest rates fall a bit, maybe they can tap into it. diana has the details and what it could mean for the economy. could be a big one, diana. >> current homeowners are sitting on roughly $10.6 trillion in home equity that they can access, while keeping 20% equity in their homes, just 3% short of the 2022 peak. they are not, however, tapping it because mortgage rates have been so high. just 0.41% of equity available at the e beginning of q3 was

drawn during the quarter, less than half the average withdrawal rate from 2010 to 2021. that is the years leading up to the fed's latest tightening cycle. what does that mean in real cash? it's equivalent to $54 billion in missing withdrawals during that quarter that might have otherwise stimulated the broader economy. and that calculation is due to andy walden. over the last 18 months, he says $250 billion in lost spending. so people respect taking the money out because interest rates are so high, but rates are moving lower. if they move significantly lower, that could change. as it is, cashout refinances make up more than 90% of the latest refi activity, with those borrowers who do do that, withdrawing a record $104,000 on average. that's up from an average $65,000, just to years ago. so there's a lot of potential there. >> i keep thinking of commercial.

they're sitting on a gold mine and maybe they can tap it, because we have to see the rates come down. people will use that equity if they have to, but they will especially use it if it was much more cheap to do so. >> absolutely. it's because home equity lines of credit are even higher rates than a current first-year mortgage, and a first mortgage generally most people have 3% and 4% rates, so they don't want to trade up. so that's why that's more expensive, if those should come down, that will be enticing. >> i should have asked this earlier, but did a lot of companies get out of that business in recent years? >> you get out of it because it doesn't exist. refinances are down significantly. and have been as interest rates rose. they're starting to come back now in the latest application data, refinance volume is popping back. but the question is, will it be enough to entice people to go into the home equity if they

have to do that second loan? >> very good. diana, thank you very much. appreciate it. coming up, the stanley cup craze sweeping the nation. it's finally hitting wall street, and one analyst sees yetti tumbling as a result. shares are already down 50% below their peak. plus, we have checked in with developers from the big apple to vice city and beyond. now we're going to san francisco to speak with the owner of the transamerica pyramid about his billion dollar bet on the bay area and what the next chapter of commercial real estate will look like. and here is a glance at the markets. the dow is up 126 points. pressure on the nasdaq today, which is trying to break a long losing streak. the s&p hanging on to a four-point gape. and the ten-year yield, ticking above 4%. we'll be right back after this. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light.

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get iphone 15 pro on us. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." shares of yeti are down more than 10% this week, and it's not being helped to a downgrade to hold. the firm is citing a huge ramp-up in the brand stanley. it was flagged as a yeti disrupter last june, but they jupdz estimated their staying power. those 40 ounce battle bottles are incredibly popular with

girls in the younger generation. so much so, the limited edition at target starbucks version has led to large lines and chaos in targets yesterday. they retail for about $50, but some are selling for more than $200 on ebay. here to discuss is brian mcnamara. welcome. >> likewise. thank you very much for having me. >> i only realized a week ago a stanley tumbler, and now i see it everywhere. explain how disruptive this product is. >> we launched on yeti when i joined in november of 2022, and to be frank, it wasn't even on our radar yet. it came to our radar where we do these store checks with dick's sporting goods, yeti's largest wholesale partner. the best part of doing primary work like that is you go in, expecting to uncover, you know, affirm or disconfirm, some conclusion, you know, you

expected. the best part about this research is coming up with the volunteered information. so in our april check, stanley came up unprompted by a whole host of dick's stores associates, and we thought this is a trend we need to monitor. then we launched a bigger note in june, and we were still kind of on the sideline in terms of, you know, our view was basically this was still in that fad camp. then we tracked the data closely, both this in-person store check analysis and we overlaid that with web traffic analysis, and the data is hard to ignore. we read cnbc's article in december quantifying the revenues of stanley, $750 million projected in 2023. i thought it might have been a couple hundred million. so that led us back to another fact finding mission with our store checks in late december

after christmas confirming that it's hard to say that this is a fad, but this is definitely a jo johnny-c johnny-come-lately. >> we've put together a nice chart, brian, of all the trending water bottles of the years, because this is just the latest chapter in one that goes back to 10, 15 years ago. the camelback, the swell. i think i had every one of these including the yeti. i get my charge larger question for yeti itself, the market cap $4 billion still. the risk isn't so much whether the stanley cup is a hit product. it's the risk that yeti also was a hit product and is no more. >> yeah. i mean, this is not a call against yeti per se. we're strictly moving to the sidelines here. yeti basically didn't have this until 2014 and turned it to

about a billion dollar business. so it's really stood the test of time during this. like your analogy back in the '70s when folks were going out camping, and then even hydroflasks, that's stood the test of time, too. we write in the note that we think yeti is benefitting from this halo effect, because the associates at dick's we spoke to said when stanleys were out of stock, they were falling back on yeti. i think yeti is an incredible brand, but stanley has been reinvigorating this market. >> so there's no real direct investment play there, but the question is, can yeti retain a $4 billion valuation predicated on, yes, the cups, but also the

coolers where their kind of differentiation point may be there, why everyone who wants to buy one has one now. >> fair point. i think yeti has done a tremendous job of stoking interest in products they have had around forever. they launched in 2006 with the cooler. they have done a great job. every year they launch four to six to eight limited edition colors. stanley is going to take it out of yeti's playbook in terms of launching a limited edition products. so i don't think this is necessarily an indictment on yeti. i just think in the current context of a consumer environment, you have student loans resuming, you have auto loans, new car loans at all-time highs. you have credit card debt at all-time highs.

it's just a tougher environment to compete in, and this is the biggest competitive onslaught yeti has ever seen. >> not to mention the gen-z analysts who follow these trends say -- once kelly finds out it's over. i still have my tall ugg boots. so they think there's no way stanley gets much bigger with us sitting here talking about it, even with this water bottle. so perhaps that bails yeti out. again, i don't know. we'll just have to find out how long their staying power is, with a consumer whose tastes are changing all the time. >> agreed. i think if you look at stanley's web traffic, it averaged 150,000 per month in january of '22. now it's 4.3 million. a 30 fold increase. it's been absurd. i think the $64,000 question, is this a fad or not? we're leading more towards fad

given the revenues. >> brian, love that you could quantify it. appreciate your time today. >> thank you very much. coming up, the cookie monster, google is about to kill cookies on its browser. we've got the fallout for advertisers, for consumers and google itself. that's next. as we head to break, check out some of the insurers. alstate and progressive are hitting all-time highs. and the spdr -- this could be a problem for inflation. it's almost a pair trade. until these stocks get down, ghnoget too much relief on the core cpi. back after this. the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

welcome back to "the exchange." keep an eye on shares of eli lily hitting another all-time high after they launched an online direct-to-consumer pharmacy to improve access to its most popular drugs. it lists for over $1,000 a month, and would cost uninsured patients more than $500 a month. if you have insurance, it can come down to about $25. shares surged 60% in 2023, good for their seventh straight annual game and 12th positive year in 13. they're up 700% since 2011. now to tyler mathisen for the news update. >> 1700%? that is something. the islamic state is claiming responsibility for two explosions that took place in iran on wednesday. the militant group said on their affiliate telegram channel that two members detonated their explosive belts into the crowd

at a memorial where an iranian general killed by a u.s. drone strike four years ago. the explosion killed nearly a hundred people. tehran promised to take revenge for the deadliest attack since the 1979 islamic revolution. plastics are still widely present in food, despite the known health risks. consumer reports found out that of the 85 foods it tested, 84 contained a chemical used to make plastic more durable. the report does note that none of the levels exceed limits set by the u.s. and european regulators. the u.s. mint has released several coins today to honor harriet tubman. the collection includes $5 gold coins, $1 silver coins, and a half dollar coin to commemorate the 200th anniversary of harriet tubman's birthday. back to you. >> tyler, thank you. coming up, the owner of san francisco's iconic transamerica

pyramid is here in the studio with what is behind his billion dollar bet on the bay area. back after this with the dow up 134.

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welcome back to "the exchange." west coast focus office reits got hammered last year as tech firms struggled to get workers back in the office. but san francisco resident duncan davidson says ai will revitalize the city as a tech hub. >> we came through an historic bubble. it may have been caused by the fed keeping interest rates too low too long, and the lockdowns led to remote work. but a historic bubble makes people think it can happen everywhere. but when the bubble is over, people resenter. and that's what we're seeing right now. >> my next guest is putting his money where his mouth, is investing a billion dollars to redevelop the transamerica pyramid center. he's here to discuss, founder and chairman and ceo. welcome to you.

>> thank you. >> do you have other projects in san francisco or california already? >> we own an entire city block around the transamerica pyramid. it consists of three buildings. the pyramid, the private park, and we own the residences in beverly hills. >> so you bought that bloc all at the same time? >> at the same time. we bought it in 2020, in the midst of covid when the city was in total lockdown and people thought it was crazy, because you're buying the most known building and office building when everybody was talking about the demise of office, and the demise of san francisco. come now 2024, we know that was all premature. >> remind us -- >> it was $650 million. >> what was it worth, did you think it was a good discount? >> i thought it was a great deal. everybody else probably thought it wasn't. we invested another $400 million to develop and elevate that entire block.

today, you know, four years later it was a good bet and good success, because the results of the leasing that we have been seeing there have proven that. >> really? >> we broke every record outside new york city. transamerica pyramid is one of the three most expensive buildings in the country with commercial leases over $200 a foot. >> in that interview yesterday, while he was bullish on the city's future acknowledges they have a lot of work to clean it up and get it back to where it was once. are you experiencing that? >> from a city perspective, 100%. there are areas in san francisco that need to be handled. but there is the tale of two cities. every city we own a lot of prime real estate in new york city, miami, chicago. the upper echelon of the market is showing great signs of leasing, and much higher rates precovid. transamerica pyramid today is renting at twice to two and a

half times of the rent rates were we getting precovid. we're elevating the building, we have invested a lot there. but tenants want new product or historically buildings that are operating as new buildings. >> you spent your whole year in this niche in office where it needs to be much nicer and the market is supporting that. who are some of your leasleases? has it shifted post covid? >> there's been a lot of conversation about ai. 70% of all money invested in ai companies in 2023 was in the san francisco based companies. that's an important fact, because that's a big driver in what we are seeing today. 25% of leasing last year was done to ai or ai related companies. so at the pyramid, because of the positioning of the building, and being the building in san francisco, we're seeing kind of the leaders in the industry.

if it's in finance, ai, so we have a mix, because it goes from 5,000 square foot to 30,000 square foot. so there's a bit for everybody. but the connecting factor is that we're all dealing with years in the industry. >> yeah. it's fascinating to see how quickly things can be turned around and also that it requires big investment to upgrade these buildings. where would you go next? are there still big opportunities out there, maybe some parts that have discounts? we hear about los angeles still building and selling at deep discounts, has that phase passed now? where are you looking as a developer? >> it ties back into interest rates. what we are seeing is, we're seeing buildings that are, in essence, failing. not necessarily because the buildings are bad buildings, but because there is a financing event. when you borrowed money at 3% and refinance at 6%, there's almost nothing you can do. so we are seeing opportunities like that, and we have bought

debts, but we've been lucky, because our portfolio is at 50% leverage at around 3% for the next eight years. so i borrowed most of the money that we have done through covid, which, again, was at the time looked at as a risky move, but obviously now, with where interest rates are -- >> it was a brilliant time. do you feel somewhat constrained in doing projects because the financing is so steep? >> again, obviously, there is an issue with financing today. at least in the last two years. now we're seeing the markets open up over the last quarter. we're seeing markets open up. because in general, we don't take high leverage, we have the ability to do transaction. but there's no question the market is still down due to the expensive nature of money right now. so we're doing less. we have done less over the last 12 months, but we are very active in the market, because we would buy cash and buying cash

in certain deals that we believe are long-term holds. we >> that's permanent capital as they call it. so what should be watching for commercial real estate? do you think the worst is the storm we have been anticipating is priced in, are we going to see more people doing oppo opportunistic things or is that off the table because of rates? >> i've been vocal about this for a long time. there's this notion that real estate has to live forever. there's real estate that is important real estate, transamerica pyramid being one of them. that's a historically important building. the opportunity there is to renovate it. then you have a bunch of buildings, and there's this notion to convert an office

building to residential. that's like taking bad milk and making a milkshake out of it. so the notion is a lot of these b and c buildings that have expired will have to be demolished. in the next ten years, we'll see areas in full blocks of cities that will be demolished and rebuild. there's a demand, there is demand for new build. either for new build or amazing old buildings that are being brought to the future. >> iconic buildings or new buildings but not the stuff in between. >> again, the stuff in between has always been dead, except in super markets because of spillover. >> michael, thank you for joining us. i'll be thinking about the transamerica building in a whole different way. coming up, there are big changes coming to google, and we'll tell you the impact on advertisers next. don't go anywhere.

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and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. welcome back. google disabling cookies for 1% or 30 million of its chrome users today, just the first step in the plan to stop using the website tracking technology entirely by year end. why? what does it mean for google's

ad dominance? diedra has that. welcome back. >> hey, thank you, kelly. happy new year to you. let me answer the why first. one, we live in a privacy centric world. remember, apple did this a few years ago. that up-ended the digital advertising landscape. now google is set to do this by the end of the year, rolling out slowly, affecting just 1% of google chrome browsers as of today, but it will affect all users by the end of the year. this is a much bigger deal than apple, because chrome makes up so much of a larger portion of the browser market than apple, with say 65% to apple's 20%. we saw what that resulted in. the year after apple did that, meta said that it would make a revenue hit of about $10 billion. so it's not surprising. some of the smaller players, the digital advertisers, the marketers, the publishers are

worried about this move. i spoke to the head of the iab tech lab. he said that add verytizers are nowhere near ready for this change to the elimination of cookies. while the move is supposed to be a more privacy centric move, it could lead to more friction and have users give up even more data. have a listen. >> more and more sites are going to ask for registration data, e-mail, your phone number. they may ask for your home address, because with thissed a vent of cigsignal loss, the coo, that will benefit some media companies. that will benefit some publishers. but publishers that are at scale. >> so we can talk more about the technology of this, but in terms of the user, there is an open question, is this going to be good? you're going to get more privacy, yes. but i don't know if you noticed this, in some cases you can't

even use a website without giving up your email address. they know they won't be able to rely on cookies, so they want more data upfront. >> interesting. i was hoping for the demise of those annoying cookie pop-ups. >> you'll get something annoying i haven't had the time or energy for fake email addresses. coming, up shares of r p and international, the maker of both professional india why products -- more today after disappointing earnings in the sales guidance. there is good news for dividend investors in that release. we will talk to the ceo next. is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats?

absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. welcome back to the

exchange. shares of crystalline motor are pm international are falling under the reported softer than expected earnings and revenue today and get their full year sales forecast. the stock is still a 14% in the past six months, and the company just raised its dividend by nearly 10% to 46 cents a share. marking its 50th consecutive year of dividend growth. they expect global infrastructure and business spending to offset business in diy consumer groups going forward. joining me to discuss is the chairman and ceo of rpm international. nice to make your acquaintance, welcome. >> last to meet you, kelly. happy new year. >> to you as well.

what would you tell us about the economy from the business position you sit in? >> so rpm's somewhat a microcosm of the u.s. economy in the broader global economy. about half our business serve commercial and industrial markets globally. and roughly 40% serve north american diy markets. if it is infrastructure, if it is industrial capital spending where we are really well positioned with our construction products, are coating -- we are seeing very strong growth, mid single digit unit volume growth, pricing power, and really good leverage in the bottom line. the flipside is anything that has touched housing over the last year struggled. better than half of our products group directly or indirectly manufacturers would stains, finishes, and coatings that go into residential construction. i think of wood, wood doors, windows, sachets, trim, and then our consumer diy businesses as well.

we are in a multi-decade low for housing turnover and that has impacted our results. >> thank you for clarifying that, frank. it is fascinating to me that we have the home building stocks at all-time highest, sentiment around the group has never been better, and yet you are talking about softness. for you guys, the real key is turnover. maybe is it turnover of just new homes or turnover of the entire housing market? >> turnover of the entire housing market. as everyone knows, when you get your house ready to sell, you are fixing it up, patching and repairing, when you buy a new home you are redecorating, adding, on decorating. as i mentioned, we are at literally a multi-decade low in terms of housing turnover. people have been stuck in their homes because of the rapid rise of interest rates. as interest rate increases moderate and begin to decline, we see that picking back up. and as that does, so you will see it pick up in our consumer businesses, perhaps as early as

the spring, and we expect are more industrial businesses to continue their strong performance. >> maybe we can turn a corner this spring, especially if we start talking about more fed cuts. is that right? it's kind of in line with what you are describing, with a little bit of the consensus around home depot right now and some of those kinds of stocks. >> absolutely. the consumers who've been on the sidelines for manufacturing goods of all types, including a restoration and paid products. that is going to change. we will be around easier comps, and you will see a housing market that will get back to normal. that will be really good for our consumer business. >> does disinflation or even deflation pose a problem, even as you see volume rebounds potentially? >> no, we've got really strong grants. and we've been able to hang on to price across all of our businesses. we tend to be the innovator in all of our product categories. russ stole e am introduced to x, it is the leading spray-paint in in the north american market

today. about ten years ago, our chemists were able to put twice the paint solids in a single can, while some of our competitors have been able to match that in a single color here or there, nobody has been able to match it across the board. we introduced this year at resilience, a five-in-one spray cap, patented. we tend to be the and invader are competitors and followers and all of our different product categories and diy and industrial markets, so it gives you pricing power in terms of your value added and it allows you to focus on margins with the introduction of new products as opposed to talking about price with old technology. >> innovation matters in spray-paint. you are making me want to go do some project, i want to change the handles of my kitchen. maybe it should be great instead of black again, maybe do that spray-paint chalkboard on the wall for one of the kids. >> absolutely. we have those products for you. >> right, thank you so much for joining us today. we appreciate it. again, the dividend growth a big attraction point for

investors as well. >> kelly, thank you very much. >> frank sullivan from rpm international. that does it for the exchange. thank you for your time today. don't go anywhere, next up, power lunch. hybrids are hot as we've been talking about. tesla sales are cooling and the shorts are coming for a buffet favorite. tyler is getting ready. we will have details on th otr def isreehesi oth bak.

♪ ♪ ♪ welcome to the power, longevity. alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler matheson. glad you can join us on this thursday. coming, up another downgrade for apple. stop down more than 5%. so far this year, and it's a really. concerns about iphone demand are growing. people talk to the analysts behind that latest fall. >> plus, eli lilly taking weight loss drugs directly to the consumer. they are setting up a new service to help people get tell health prescriptions. we will ask a doctor about the potential implications. first, let's get a check on these markets with the dow up

128 points, the p t