computers can do that they couldn't do before. you would open it up, you would have no idea, you know, anything was different. >> reminds me of 20 years ago when intel tried to make the 3d browser a thing. that didn't really -- >> we don't know what happened there. >> it reminds me of internet pcs. >> we have to go. that does it for "overtime." "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. drugs on demand. eli lilly to go direct to consumer with its new obesity drug. is this all about simplifying access to this category or a real industry game changer? we'll debate that. plus, burger blues. mcdonald's issuing a warning about the impact the war on israel and the unrest in the middle east is having on its business. will others soon be raising similar red flags? and later, one top tech watcher has an interesting buyer for peloton in the new year. we'll go inside the mobileeye

back eye and thanks to a.i., microsoft is set to kick off a major pc refresh. we'll explain i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- carter braxton worth, bonawyn eison, dan nathan, and guy adami. first up tonight, eli lilly up 70% in the last year. they announced the launch of lilly direct, a direct to consumer website that allows patients to order sezepbound rit from the company. shares of novo nordisk, which manufacturing rival wegovy held onto its gains, jumping 4%, closing at a record. so, did lilly just change the game for the health care industry? how will the stocks respond? guy? >> i don't know if they changed the game. clearly, they are onto something. i think other companies will act in kind. and you saw in terms of wba, walgreens/boots alliance, which

had its own issues, that was clearly under pressure. in terms of the price action we just mentioned, that's the story today. traded big volume, closed lower on the day after making a new all-time high. i want to be crystal clear. eli lilly, we've loved for years. you had opportunities to buy this stock on dips a number of times and today might be one of those days that sets up for that type of opportunity. and when i say opportunity, i'm not talking about $600, i'm talking about getting back down to $535 to $550. great company, but think about it now. now it's just north of 50 times next year's numbers, which is 2 1/2, 3 turns more than its rivals. deserved, but expensive. >> the question whether or not the stock should gain on the back of this news is going direct to consumers is going to increase revenue or are they still going to be supply con trac constrained. >> well, you have to assume they did it for a reason,

presumptively, it's to sell more, but to be determined. >> right. >> guy makes a point about the reversal. it closed red, and the stock is basically down where it was in september. so, the question is, after the great runup and then this consolidation, is this the pause before the next upleg? i would think higher. >> yeah. there's a lot of sort of consensus going around in the new year, right? and so, i think the collective sort of reaction from the desk would be to go against consensus. the consensus here is that there are so many catalysts in the pipeline here for a lot of these drugs in terms of trial data that will prove these drugs effective against a host of other illnesses. so, going against consensus would be to say too much is baked in. >> it's funny, if you were to track the performance of novo and lilly versus some of the biggest beneficiary office the a.i. boom in 2023, they look very similar. they kind of bottomed out in q-1 of last year and literally doubled over the next, call it nine months or so. and the consensus thinking that you're saying is that these are

confirmed megatrends, by some of the smartest people that we know that cover these industries, but also think about markets and how value gets accrued to risk assets. heading into this year, i think that the jury is still out, as far as when the commercialization of a lot of the a.i. stuff is, but the jury is not out on these drugs and what they are doing right now, and then you add on all of these catalysts that should help -- i think sentiment going forward in the future, so, when i think about today's reversal, i say to myself, to answer your question, no doubt about it, of course they think this is going to increase sales. right now, sales are expected to go from $34 billion for lilly last year to $39 billion this year, but they are nearly expected to double their earnings. think about that, from $6.50 to $13 or so. so, they must think this is good for them from a margin perspective to control the direct pipeline to their customers. there's data that's involved in that, a whole host of other things. yeah, it sounds great, but what the market is expecting probably gets a bit harder as the consensus is definitely in, that

this is, literally -- they're in the driver's seat, as you would expect, them and novo for these products. but there's going to be other companies this year that emerge to all these other trials, they're going to have good use cases for these drugs to expand on the success of novo and lilly. >> if you look at the 30 analysts that cover lilly, their price target is going for 3% gain. $634, the stock is at $615. that's not very bullish. >> it's not bullish, but it's not bearish. has the stock gotten out in front of itself? it's not surprising that perhaps there's a little bit of profit taking into the positive news. dan mentioned the margins, that is an important aspect, but the part that he hinted on and i want to take further is the data aspect. i think that's really the catalyst behind why they're making this dtc move here. we've seen it in some of the consumer brands, and this is an opportunity for them to capitalize on what seems to be a groundbreaking drug here and

really get a lot more granular data on the profile of the customer base. >> in theory, you could potentially have, you know, a whole database of long-term results from various customers that you can easily sort and go through and just figure out how exactly it's helped them when they stop, when they started, et cetera. and really get that granular level of information on the effectiveness of these drugs longer term. >> which is another iteration, transformative, without question. but if we can pull up a two-year chart of eli lilly, you'll see, it looks like a straight line, there have been at least five different times where we've seen significant pull-backs. and only reason i mention it today is because of the reversal and the volume. and now the valuation. vertex, by the way, that made an all-time high today. that trades at half the valuation of lilly. i'm not saying it should trade anywhere close, but my point is, there are pharma stocks out there, big cap names even in the bio tech space that have similar

stories with better valuations. >> all right, for more on the impact of this push, let's bring in jared holz, health care sector strategist. happy new year to you. >> thank you. >> i mean -- what's today? >> today is the fourth. >> so, the -- jared's the first time on this year what if we have, for example -- what if we have a guest on the first time in, like, april. >> uh-huh. >> i'll say happy new year. >> that's a problem. >> she will now. >> sorry, jared. >> anyway. >> happy new year. >> how do you assess this news for lilly? >> well, yeah, i agree with the data aspect. i think that's huge. just removing the middleman. the concept of taking the pharmacy channel and the supply channel out of the equation and also controlling the narrative of the drug launch itself. i think so much has been made about how is this launch going to go? it's obviously under a microscope because of the sheer number of patients it can get to. they obviously want the safety element to be first and foremost and drive adoption.

so, if they can control the drug launch itself into the hands of patients that it should be going to, that helps them a long way. there have been so many reports coming out of europe and other jurisdictions about all of the side effects. the best thing they can do, with the target on their back, with this launch, which is definitely going to be the biggest in history, the combined companied, rather, in this setting, they need to do a good job of managing it. this helps them do it. >> and the fda is examining the side effects associated with all of the glp-1 drugs, so, i mean, i guess that's an issue, but you still need a doctor to write a prescription. so, in terms of getting the prescriptions into the right hands, they made a big deal of that in the press release about, you know, it being used for obesity as opposed to cosmetic weight loss. can they really control that if they are fulfilling prescriptions that are written by somebody else? >> the doctors are going to be part of this equation, right? this is a telemedicine app that they're going to kind of license

and control along the way. that's definitely part of it. the cosmetic piece, you know, we talked about it many times. i think the boldest of patients that have gotten on the drug to start don't need it as much as the medically obese or the definitively obese community that doesn't have access. that could open the door here, because a lot of that population, middle america, other geographies that don't have access to really good care, can now go online and get the drugs. that might open the flood gates even more for the patient population that actually needs it, as opposed to, like, the hollywood population that wants it to lose 15, 20 pounds. >> you know, you mentioned the pharmacy channel, okay, and how this might be, and we saw it in the stock market today, if you looked at some of the names there. might it be different for the telehealth? this launch may ease some of the problems that some of the providers have, because they are obviously at the whims of a lot of these, especially pharmacy companies. if anyone has used these for any drug, it's not a particularly

efficient sort of thing. so, i wonder if this is a benefit to some of the t telemedicine companies. >> it's possible. the number of patients is so gigantic that if you can't get access, for some reason, to lilly direct, you can say, i'm going to try out, you can do weight watchers, you can do teledoc. there are going to be so many, ro comes up in conversation. there are so many of them, it could drive broader adoption with the biggest player kind of spearheading it. but i think a lot of it is going to be patients that have tried lilly first, having gotten what they wanted and seeked another opinion. >> so, they -- there has been prescription data for zepbound already, though it's just available, but through the weekend ending december 22nd, more than 22,000 prescriptions have been written for it. do you think that lilly direct will increase the number? actually increase the number of, you know, prescriptions or drugs that they sell in the end? >> it should.

i think -- you know, the purpose of the company's strategy here is to give the drug to as many people as it can within the boundaries of the label. and the supply constraint situation, i feel, is the biggest impediment, still. long-term, i think definitely over the next couple of months, i think we're way too early to be jumping to conclusions that the scripts are going to inflect in a bigger way because of lilly direct, but in time, i think that would have to be the tactic they're using. >> last time you were on, we talked about merck, it's up 1 17%ish since you came on, and talked about the undervaluedness of the name. it clearly has -- it's within a whisper of an all-time high at a valuation that makes sense. i know they spoke today at the goldman sachs conference, but merck still makes sense for a myriad of different reasons. >> agree. $117 from $100, not bad.

still has room to go. the comments today on m&a were essentially, they're looking at anything from 0 to 15 billion, which is 95% of the xbi, ibb, whatever index you look at. i think they are still on the hunt. they have only spent $23 billion over the past couple of years. pfizer's spent way more than that. other companies have spent way more than that in the s&p. so, there's room for me deals and i think there's more room for the stock to inflect. the one important thing is, obviously keytruda is still there. a lot of those estimates for keytruda are understated. and so, if you move through the years, you're going to be -- you're going to be presented with a bigger base business and a bigger earnings base when it starts to erode and i think that's really important, too. >> so, a lot of analysts going, you know, looking out to 2024 say that the best times are ahead for health care, that it's going to be a return to the glory days, it's just so beaten down, it's got to be the time for this group to finally rise. >> right. >> do you agree? >> sort of. i think a lot of that commentary is based on the discrepancy

between the health care index and the s&p last year. negative 25%, you know, versus the index, is a big number. i think if it weren't for that, i don't think it would be this unanimously recommended as a sector to buy into. we still have a lot to work through. on the other hand, i think a lot of the risk factors that have hurt this sector are pretty much going to either dissipate or remain the same. election year, the glp risk, drug pricing, so on and so forth, these are not new topics. i don't think we're going to be presented with a whole other assortment of risk factors, i think the negative narrative is the same, which is pretty good. but i'm not emphatically pushing the space just because it underperformed last year. valuations, to me, when i look ahead medical devices, life science tools, a lot of bio tech are still not nearly cheap enough. >> all right, jared, good to see you. thank you. >> great to see you. >> happy new year again. um -- >> i mean, it's -- all show.

>> all day. for weeks and weeks and weeks on end. >> so, what about a little impromptu would you rather? >> okay, go ahead. >> what's happened now is that lilly is now the same weight as united health. for the first time, right? because of its appreciation. would you rather bet on lilly for the next 12 to 18 months or arguably the most persistent, reliable health care earner of all time? >> which, in that chart, unh, you called gold-like chart. >> about to break out. >> i'm going with unh. >> okay. >> unh. >> self-would you rather. >> it's an interesting theory. >> for you, too, would you rather? >> i do think -- i think lilly will pull back. unh has had pull-backs, as well, but i can rationalize unh on valuation without question. and it is sort of lower left, lower right. so, since we're playing the unscripted version, i'll go with unh, as well, cbw.

>> it's always unscripted. >> that's not true. >> it always is. it's a self-would you rather as opposed to coming from me. >> i'm never -- just so we're clear, i'm never the one that's guilty of this. >> everybody else. >> everybody else always is. i get blamed. >> anyway. markets. let's talk them. taking a leg lower in the last hour, trading near the lows of the day. the nasdaq on a five-day losing streak. the s&p 500 down four sessions in a row. and the dow virtually flat after being up more than 200 points early in the day. the moves coming ahead of tomorrow's december jobs report. the latest dow jones estimate looking for payrolls to rise by 170,000. the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.8%. so, what kind of impact could the jobs report have on tomorrow's trading? bonawyn? >> i think it will be volatile. we've already seen the jobs opening number, that's surprised to the upside. you saw what that did to rates. the adp numbers, beat 25%, 26%.

so, there's volatility here between expectations and what we're realizing. and being that we've priced in so much pull forward of rate cuts and soft landing and g goldilocks scenarios, i expect it to bear on stock prices. >> hourly wages, i think, 0.3% is expected. year over year might be interesting, so, you could get a scenario where maybe good news in terms of the un -- >> good news? >> not necessarily. i think if wages tick up, which is obviously good news for everybody, i don't think the market is going to particularly like that, given the fact we priced in five or six rate cuts this year. >> and we just had the minutes, which were more hawkish. >> 100%. >> that's the narrative. and that was the narrative since the presser since mid-december. but the stock market had a different idea about the pace of the economy, how soft the landing we were going to have, and we have a ten-year u.s. treasury yield that's at 4% right now. and you tell me, if you were to head back to 4.25% over the next

few weeks on a cooler than expected data, if it's not just in jobs, where is the stock market? i mean, the s&p is easily at 4,400 or probably lower. and, you know, carter could probably tell us, maybe that's a perfectly healthy thing after the rally that we had last year in the markets. or last quarter. >> in terms of sequencing, the straight down move in rates from 5 to 3.8, the straight down in oil, the straight down in the dollar. regardless if you are moving in a straight line up or down, you areized by dollar trend. the common move would be a give-back in the equity market. and that's under way. but the issue is, is it just a little bit or messages from apple and things hike that, is it more than that? i think it's going to be more than that. >> do you need a diction air? >> i would agree with carter if i knew what that meant. he's unbelievable. >> yeah. >> you can look it up during the break. >> thank you. coming up, the geopolitical impact on fast food.

the warning out of mcdonald's that hit shares today. that is next. plus, a mobileye meltdown. they issued a stark warning on orders and inventory. is this a standalone problem, on could there be a ripple effect? we'll discuss that when "fast money" returns. this is "fast money" with melissa lee. right here on cnbc. kids moving back in after college. (applause) finally, we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna... ♪ and then we looked around and said, "wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller!" (laughter) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mm-hmm. cool! i don't get it. here's to getting financially ready for anything. and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha? ( ♪♪ )

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money." shares of mcdonald's taking a tumble mid-day today. the ceo saying that ton rest in the middle east is impacting its business. cnbc's kate rogers is here with the latest. hey, kate. >> hey, melissa. the ceo sharing an update for the new year on his linkedin page, including comments on the middle east, writing, in part, quote, i also recognize that several markets in the middle east and some outside of the region are experiencing a meaningful business impact due to the war and associated misinformation that is affecting brands like mcdonald's. this is disheartening and ill-founded. in every country where we operate, including in muslim countries, mcdonald's a proudly represented by local owner operators who work tirelessly to serve and support their communities.

while employing thousands of their fellow citizens. that local community connection is the genius of the mcdonald's system. now, the stock had moved lower around noon by 1%, rebounded quickly and then ended the day after just under 1%. mcdonald's, though, isn't the only major brand that's made comments on the war. the starbucks ceo also addressed misinformation around that brand's stance in a letter to workers sent out last month. much more to come on the business impact for these brands during earnings season in just a few short weeks, melissa. back over to you. >> kate, thank you. kate rogers. carter, you actually, from the chart's perspective, it looks like you like it. >> well, i think it's got a little bit of work to do, which is to say, it sold off with the market from the summer high, but the selloff was down 17. and then it has recovered with the market back to its former high, and in principle, as a rule of thumb, before you can exceed a high, you contend with it. you are back to the level, where backing and filling is likely. >> what do you make of this? >> at 23 times next year's

numbers, it's not crazy given its history. so, valuation is okay on mcdonald's. it's had a huge run since october. i get concerned that it has peaked at these levels that we saw in may of last year and seemingly have stalled. now, again, a name that has gone lower left upper right, but selloffs along the way, so, i think into earnings, i believe on february 5th, mcdonald's is a name i think you can have an opportunity to buy cheaper. when i say cheaper, i mean, like, 8% to 10% cheaper from here. >> wow. there is an icr retail conference next, where a lot of the fast food companies are going to be preventing, so, they will probably offer some color with what they're seeing with the consumer, and that, of course, is a big issue with food inflation. >> yeah, talking about carter's 17% selloff from the july highs, we were sitting here on the desk watching this stock careen lower week after week and trying to figure out, like, what's going on here? and i just think it's important

to remember, all the few your fa, you could have thrown a dart at your screen, they were going to go up 10%, 20%, in that period over the last few months. it is important that things that go up can come down, too. and guy just mentioned, you know, trading at 23 times, mid-single digits earnings in sales growth expected for this year, big downshift from last year. some of the things may not make a whole heck of a lot of sense if this ceo is going on linkedin, okay, to talking this sort of stuff, this is not a one-off sort of thing. this is going to be a theme throughout some of these consumer companies for awhile. especially multinationals that have 60% of their sales outside the u.s. >> i'm curious. what do you mean by, because he's going on linkedin? >> it's just odd. >> as opposed to going on x or using other platform? >> yeah, i'm sure they had to put a filing out or whatever. but we're going to talk about a company that, you know, p preannounced today, you know what i mean? i don't know, is this a soft preannouncement? >> yeah. >> i'm actually with guy. i would look for an opportunity

to buy this on weakness. if you look at foot traffic versus some of their peers, they've had positive foot traffic and the ability to raise prices. and we're starting to see a lot of food end inflation come off, so, i would look for an opportunity where even if you think that the overall space may be challenged, i think this is probably one of the bellwethers within that sub sector. >> all right, here's what's coming up next. mobileye getting poked. the supply glut warning that sent shares plummeting. and if the issue could reverberate through the chip space. plus, putting the pedal to the medal, with a bold prediction for 2024. why our next guest believes apple might cause shakeup in the cycling space. plus, the other big predictions for the year ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of mobileye plunging 25% today, its worst day since being spunoff from intel. a dropoff of orders resulted in excess of inventory. i should say customer orders. kristina partsinevelos has the details. kristina? >> that dramatic dropoff means that mobileye expects a 50% drop in revenue for the first quarter of this year. as you mentioned, because of excessive inventory. auto suppliers were so spooked by the supply shortage during covid that they've been hoarding chips for fear of a repeat and now they are realizing they have high inventory levels and need to burn through them. interestingly, though, mobileye is choosing to take the brunt of the impact in q-1, with the company forecasting flat to low mid single digit growth throughout the rest of the year.

that's why the stock, like you mentioned, plunges 25%. the company has been suffering from losses just over the last five business days. today's massive guide down, though, hitting other auto exposed names like nxpi, bank of america downgrading mobileye on a rare mid-day move, because of that weak outlook. they say, though, the problem is isolated to mobileye and shouldn't impact other names. and honorable mention for intel, its shares barely negative today, about 0.3% lower. it remains a majority share shoulder of mobileye, roughing 88% of shares. >> kristina, thank you. kri kristina partsinevelos. microchip getting a downgrade today, as well. stocks exposed to the same end market getting hit. >> okay. mobileye specific, right?

kristina just said it. customers bought in anticipation of supply constraints, now you have a 6, 7 million unit glut. you think that's specific to what mobileye makes? no, exactly. and dan's talked about this, a lot of us have brought that up. the potential for double and triple ordering in so many ouch this space is out there. you're seeing it with mobile eye. look at the stock reaction. 50% revenue decline versus 27%. that is catastrophic. maybe you can see it's in this name, it's now taking into consideration with today's drop, but the point is, you can see it here and elsewhere, as well. >> it brings me to the last time i was in an autonomous robo-taxi. >> never? >> oh, i was never in one. i might ever be in one in the next five to ten years. all the headlines that we hear ou out of them is, they're slowing the production of these things because they're not working

particularly well. >> tesla has not mentioned it at all. >> the information had a great article out two years ago, it's all about electric vehicles and autonomy and talking about a miscalculation by tesla that two years ago, on the january call, they said, we're going all-in on autonomous robo-taxis. i think elon -- he wants this to be a thing, it's just not a thing right now. and i think that speaks to the glut that you're seeing in some of the providers. >> does this make nvidia look that much better or is there a concern that perhaps users are over ordering some of these a.i. chips? >> you know, this sort of like a foreshadowing? >> i think it would be naive to assume there's no double ordering. you have to take that into consideration. but i think if you look at apple's downgrade, they spoke about analog devices versus gpu devices. you're starting to see more of a bifurcation in the market. i think relatively, i feel safer here. but i wouldn't be surprised to

see a pull-back in the semi space overall. >> just one thing in terms of technique. it is always a question, do you take advantage of shocking weakness like this and buy in or not? it's never right to buy a drop in gap. let the dust settle. >> all right. coming up, ped aftering for the partner. one top tech analyst thinks apple could work out an offer to buy peloton. and the energy slump. the sector dropping in the last few months, but showing promising signs of a rebound this week. we'll get some answers from our own brian sullivan when we come ghba.k

welcome back to "fast money." the major indices closing around session lows. the nasdaq dropping five days in a row, its longest losing streak since october 2022. the dow ending the day around the flat line. taking a look at microsoft, the company announcing a co-pilot key is coming to keyboards on window pcs starting this month. it is considered the biggest change to the windows keyboard in more than three decades. dan, is this big news? >> no. i remember two decades ago when compact added an alta vista key.

that was the thing back then. this is gimmicky. >> is it the top? >> could be. new year, new exercise goals. our next guest is making a bold call that apple could beef up its work out program by acq acquiring peloton. let's bring in gene munster. gene, happy new year to you. >> hello. >> this is part of your forecast for 2024, you've got a list of various predictions. a couple concern apple. but this one in particular with peloton. what's the reasoning here? because this was sort of ventured, you know, even a couple years ago. >> melissa, the stars are starting to line up. and there's multiple reasons why. first is that this just makes sense for apple's business model. they have six subscription products today, they account for $16 billion in total revenue. that's about 4% of apple's overall revenue, but growing quickly. and this would fit nicely into

that. if they can maintain their $1.7 billion in subscription revenue, that would add 11% to that subscription business, so, that's piece number one. and the past year, it was unclear where that would stabilize. that business is now stable, so, there's a catalyst for apple to step in. second is in terms of just the overlying goals. it was almost five years ago today that tim cook famously said that apple's greatest contribution to humanity will be related to health. they've been teasing around apple watch, they have a fitness product that basically no one uses. and this is an opportunity. next is the peloton does something that no other fitness company does, bringing those three things together. that, of course, is something that apple does well. they do need to shift over. it's currently run on an droild, so, it would have to shift to an ios-enabled hardware, but that is an easy transition. and last, this is cheap.

if apple pays a 50% premium to current trading -- get it to $9, they'd be paying two times subscription revenue. apple's trading at seven times revenue. if you're trading at seven times revenue and you can buy a business that fits nicely in for two times revenue, you make that acquisition, so, i think this is the year. >> gene, this is bonawyn, thank you for being with us. you made the case why this makes sense, i tend to agree. but given the recent downgrades to apple, the challenges with the apple watch and some of the challenges in china, how do they manage to go after this acquisition and skirt any perception that they may be reaching through m&a to cover up some homegrown issues? or organic issues, if you will? >> so, we'll see how the december numbers play out. i think they're going to be okay, but let's take the approach that they're not as impressive. they will get accused of doing that.

it is something that -- it's inevitable. but ultimately, i think that if this does have the benefit that i think -- they have, by my estimate, 3 billion active users, 2 billion device users. if they can start to essentially push peloton into that group, i think that's going to show revenue growth, and i think investors are going to reward them for that. >> gene, i want to get to your other prodictiediction about ap with the stock moving lower on each of the downgrades on separate days, your prediction is that apple is going to include or launch some sort of generative a.i. feature into siri. when it does that, does it then get the sort of a.i. respect, so to speak, that other big cap tech companies that gotten in terms of market capitalization being added to it? >> simple answer is yes. it will get a bump-up from that. i think that is part of multiple expansion opportunity for apple. i think that's going to happen

in june. will elemeit get the full benef? probably not. not going to get the same benefit that nvidia and microsoft have ad, but ultimately, i think it's been pretty clear. apple's been radio silent on a.i. they haven't mentioned it once in any of their conference calls in 2023. microsoft was mentioning it on average 23 times on their calls. that's in their prepared remarks. so, i think just the mere acknowledgement that a.i. goes beyond just making their devices better and they're actually doing a generative opportunity or generative integration with siri, i think that's going to be an expander to the multiple and reassure investors they are all aboard. one more quick one, tim cook has been quiet on the conference calls. since they reported the september quarter, he's made a couple public comments that say that he's used the word critical in terms of a.i.'s importance to apple. so, i think we're going to see something in june on this. >> all right, gene, thank you. gene munster. deepwater asset management. will that be enough, though, to allay the concerns about

inventory builds, about the iphone not being innovative, about people holding onto their handset longer because the macro economic environment, if they say, you know what, siri's got a.i., we've got this whole new thing going on -- >> i think it will be. if you think of, like, and gene didn't get to spatial computing, he's really excited about the vision pro and their opportunities there, and really think about services, so, there's a whole lost of things that go on around there. i would expect this june user conference to be all about a.i. where it wasn't last year. and just one other point really quickly, because obviously i work out a lot. this story is near and dear to my heart, the peloton situation, but i think there could be a bidding war. earlier -- sometime last year, youtube tv was one of the first streaming services that popped up on peloton. you could see google be interested. i think gene is object something here. >> it has the early makings of a bearish to bullish reversal buy. it is awfully small to think about apple looking at something

that's $2 billion market cap. it's quite something. >> pocket change for them. >> yeah, i mean -- coming up, energy off to a strong start in 2024, but can the sector keep up its momentum? brian sullivan will join us from an energy conference in miami for what's in store for the space. and the big c-suite names he'll be talking about, he's got that list next. plus, a number of names hitting all-time highs. can the good times last? the chart master is giving us the chcal tenitakes. we're going to the penny, when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money." the energy sector starting 2024 in the green, but it's been a rough couple of months for the space, underperforming the s&p over the last three months. oil producer apa buying callon petroleum. the deal will help bolster apa's operations in the shale basin. we're going to get a lot more on the outlook tonight on a special "last call," live from the goldman sachs energy and clean tech conference in miami, florida. guests include the ceo of's chevron and royal caribbean, as well as goldman's head of oil

r research. for a sneak peek, here's brian sullivan what are the big themes so far? >> well, hey, guys. i think the big theme here is that i've been coming to this conference for a decade off and on and i cannot remember a time where there was lack of clarity in kind of which way oil and gas prices were going to go. if you know, let me know. we can go over here behind my shoulder and talk to the women and men in the industry making these deals happen, and i can probably hear just as many opinions about oil going up $10, $15 a barrel this year or going down $10 or $15. can you can make the cases equally. and the way the commodity goes is the way the stock price is likely to go. deals, you just represented apa and callon. a number of private deals, as well. chevron, who is going to be on tonight, they bought hess for the guyana assets, as well. so, that's a big theme. kind of which way are things going to go this year. and very "fast money"-ish, we're

going to be getting stock picks, as well. goldman sachs, bring the heat, bring up their top picks in oil, gas, and other energy, by the way, not just oil and gas, for the year. i will give you a little bit of a preview, but i don't want to give everything away. chevron is one of their favorite names. chevron just took a big multibillion dollar write down. we'll dig into that, talk about some of the mid cap players. also, it's not just oil and gas. we got the ceo of royal caribbean, up 126% over the last year. they're going to make a surprise guest appearance here live, "last call," miami beach. because when you think of oil and gas, you think of miami beach. >> you're a handsome man, brian sullivan. i think of you, by the way, for a myriad of different reasons. but for an industry that was going away, apparently, a few years ago, and a lot of people's eyes, an awful lot of m&a going on. and my question to some of these people would be the following. at this point, within $5 or so, does it even matter where the

price of crude oil is, given how well-run the balance sheets look like, how efficient these companies have become, does the commodity even matter anymore, to a large extent? >> amazing point, as always, guy. $5, i would probably argue would be no, $10, probably yeah, $15, absolutely. to your point, you could probably get $5 a barrel in operational efficiencies as many of these players have, in particular in texas, where they've been able to get their cost to production down to probably the low 40s. i get we can find folks here that are in the high 30s, as well. so, to your point, yeah, the price comes down five bucks, maybe it won't matter that much. listen, it's been a weird two years, right? came out of covid, 2022, energy rocked and ruled everything. last year, it stunk up the joint. tonight, in this joint here in miami, we're going to try to figure out where it's going to go, and like i said, get some stock picks, as well. >> look forward to it.

brian, thank you. good to see you. brian sullivan. >> thank you. >> and again, do not miss that special "last call," live from the goldman sachs energy and clean tech conference in miami, tonight, 7:00 p.m. eastern time. brian asked if you know which direction oil or gas is going, let him no, what do the charts say? >> so, we know we have this full round trip, june $65, hit $95, back to $65. i'm in the lower oil camp, along with lower rates and lower dollar. >> what does lower oil mean? >> means the economy is slips down. means that china is still a problem. but it doesn't mean these energy companies, doesn't mean the stocks can't go higher. so, that's sort of the point i was trying to make. coming up, a bevy of stocks kicking off the new year at new highs, but should you buy into the action? we'll turn to the charts to find out which names could keel climb and which are a pair of twos next. don't awhe.gonyer "fast money" is back right after this.

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♪ ♪ with a partner that always ♪ ♪s you first. ♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money." big names hitting record highs across sectors. jpmorgan, lowe's, lululemon, just some of the high flyers. but do any of the names have more room to run? let's turn to the chart master to find out. carter? what do you see here? >> we'll go one at a time. i think some do, some don't.

but each here is an important stock typically 50 billion or larger in market cap. and each is at or near all-time high. let's roll one at a time. so, the first, we have jpmorgan. and jpmorgan has moved in a very steep and uninterrupted intermediate advance, right to a former high. and in principle, before you exceed a high, you contend with it. contending is backing filling and backing away. this one, i'm a seller. moving on. we have lulu. an important retailer, of course, and lulu broke out, but gu. it's starting to check back. and so, i'm a seller of lulu. moving on, we've got mckesson. this is medical supply chain operator, just north by northeast. talk about idiosyncratic. doesn't care about oil, the dollar, it's an uptrend that persists. i'm a buyer. we also have lowe's. this is a property casualty

insurer, and this also uptrends intact, not too steep. buyer here. and then ending with a big -- two big names, trane, this is the hvac maker, i'm a seller. and finally, cintas, a name not well covered, but it is 60 billion. they make uniforms. and all industries, commercial, and here, too, the question is, do you stick with the uptrend or do you fade it? little less clear here, but i'm sticking with it. >> all right, so, lowe's, mckesson and cintsa are the ones you like -- >> jpmorgan feels a little overdone of the big ones. >> would you agree with this assessment? >> particularly lulu. and i know that we've come on and said it's been overvalued, but listen, if i'm comfortable betting against anything, it's probably the consumer going into 2024, so -- there you go. >> jpmorgan on friday of next

week, okay? we just traded up to levels we last saw, i think, in the fall of 2021. it is now currently trading north of two times tangible book, probably 170% or so of book value, which historically is sort of the -- you're getting into the expensive sort of range. given the fact we traded up to these levels, i'm hard-pressed to believe they're going to say something that's going to get this run to continue. >> what say you, dan? you wanted carter to look at jpmorgan. why is that? >> man oh man. $135 to $172, the valuation outperformance, the enthusiasm around the name relative to other names, we spent some time talking about citi bank, who has been upgraded. just not in the same category. to me, that seems like -- i just don't know what can propel it higher, if you look at that multiyear chart. >> almost 1.8 times book, when you've got other banks trading below book. >> oh, wow. how do regionals in general act? because that has shown some outperformance.

>> right. if you just -- that october low, which from which everything rallied, the biggest move is home builders, up 45. regional banks are right up there, up 42. it's just a rate thing. look at jpmorgan. the question is, can you keep that rate of change going, or do you need to back and fill and back away? i think they should be sell calls or trade. >> all right. up next, final trades. (clock ringing) go. and go and go and go. (tense music) but what if you. (tense music) stop! you work hard. it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank performance savings is built to put your money to work with some of the highest rates in the country. going, that's what got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you.

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. carter? >> gold. you can use glv and gold miners, gdx. >> bonawyn? >> tsm. 16 times, starting to look attractive. >> dan? >> yeah, i really like gene's call on pell london. one that i've thought about a p bit. >> it is up afterhours, we should note. guy? >> i don't often know what you're going to do after the show, but i know tonight, because you're a ranger fan, and you'll be watching -- >> baited breath. i can't wait. >> i'm excited about it.

original six match-up at you pointed out. and rangers -- >> i have to get my ranger stein out. >> we mentioned medtronic is too cheap, it still is, mel. >> thank you for watching "fast." see you back here tomorrow for more "fast." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. call me 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. every morning i write up a list of the stories i'm working on for "squawk on the street," the