all right, a final check on the markets right now. you're going to see that the dow futures are up by about 65 points. nasdaq futures down. s&p futures down by ten. we had seen bigger declines right after the numbers, but things are coming back to where they were just ahead of that. anyway, want to thank both mike and steve for being with me today and all week too. it has been fun. >> pleasure. >> have a great weekend, everybody. see you next week. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. dave david faber has the morning off. 216, the higher print since september. wages run a tad hot. ten-year touches 4.10% before backing off. that's where our road map b begins, the blowout jobs report. better than expected.

the ongoing tech turbulence, nasdaq riding its longest losing streak since october of '22. and we continue to monitor developments in the red sea as shipping giant maersk diverts its vessels away from that area for the foreseeable future. let's begin with the market reaction to the jobs number. revisions, household surveys getting some eyeballs. >> that's the story. the revisions offset what you're seeing. that's why the interest rates immediately jumped up and then backed off a little. i think it's interesting, government, 52,000. that was a big delta. health care has been strong, 38,000. but we have construction, you know, up a little bit, and then, leisure and hospitality, which had been red-hot post-covid is unchanged. retail is okay. i find that average hourly earnings, pretty much the same. this is not nearly as negative as -- negative, meaning straight shoot up -- when people pulled apart the numbers, they said,

it's a little too hot. let's go back to three rate cuts. >> maybe lfpr is the most concerning. why would we have participation drop by the most since january of '21? >> i don't know. sometimes you look at these numbers, and you say, i got to learn more. i don't want to cuff it. i was surprised at that. >> yeah. >> surprised. look, i think, carl, in the end, there was just this camp which has said it's going to be really weak, and then there was this catch which said it's going to be weak, but there wasn't a camp that said it's going to be okay. so, the okay camp is now scrambling to sell mag seven. it really is like that. the okay camp just says, wow, i can't stay in the mag seven. i better go into the -- there was a great piece this morning that got removed from "the journal" that was like the amount of money going into cash is extraordinary, because cash is extraordinary. you get, like, 5%. make a lot of money with 5% and not have to worry. of course, if they cut rates immediately, you would, but they're not going to.

>> the flow data today was interesting. b of a, biggest purchase of money market funds since november, another 57 billion. >> i thought that was incredible. very little in stocks, little more into bonds, which again, that's just mag seven sell, buy rest. >> you think the jobs report is a push, so to speak? >> i think what we're going to do is get away from the camp that says there's multiple cuts, which is good, because that's not powell's camp. i don't know whose camp that was. >> it was the wishful thinking camp. >> and those people should just go somewhere else. they should do some other game. they really should. you got to deal with reality. the economy is not that bad. the only thing that happened is we got rid of higher for longer. then, we had the, you know, the job plot, like, geez, we had these j.o.l.t.s., and i find this stuff tiresome. what they're saying is, if it's weaker, we're going to cut, but we don't want to cut too fast. >> 36 months of job growth. i think 20-plus of sub-4%

unemployment as we stay at 3.7%. yeah. i mean, that's -- it's 2.7 million jobs added in the full year. >> that's just a -- it's a great economy. and there's nothing you can do about it. it's a great economy. only the people who thought it was a super weak economy are surprised today, but they are surprised, and i just think that it's not in a decel mode. we're not in a deceleration mode. we're just in a -- eh. but it's from a very good level. sometimes i wish we didn't do what we do, which is talk about stocks, because this is a sign of an economy that's the best in the world. we're the best in the world. we have less inflation. we have more job growth. but that's -- we're not. we're in the stock business, and the stock business, you don't want -- you sell apple on that. >> well, the tape never ends, jim, and you got to -- we got to talk about it as it runs. >> why does the tape never end? >> we're going to get cpi next week, though, and given euro zone inflation today, there will be some hand-wringing about

month-to-month rebounds and year on year rates. >> we didn't -- we had a very strong -- i like the revision down, but we had a very strong online market. we saw the amazon numbers. >> oh my gosh. >> i know. >> 30% of all orders in the final days of the season? >> you know, it's funny. it came out, and i was joking around with my staff. i said, oh, 30%. how much will amazon be down? i thought it would only be down two. it was like down three and a half. this market hates those stocks. maybe today you get a rebound, because people are starting to figure it out, but just be careful. the market likes -- the people like new names. they like the industrials. they like "how i met my mother", it's an err aerospace joke. if we had the labor secretary on, they would be youing. >> we are going to talk to lael

brainard. major indexes are on track to snap this streak. nasdaq coming off five days of losses. that is the longest losing streak since october of '22, and to a large degree, driven by names like amazon. >> when we sold some at the beginning of the week, it was like, it just isn't disciplined. i'm no genie. these stocks were up a lot, and people are saying the same thing over and over, which is they waited until the end of the year, they wanted to show that they own this, and then they can start selling. they're sources of funds, and nothing's changed. the only thing i did see, morgan stanley's the best on apple, and they finally came out today and said app store outperformed growth. people were looking for 8% and change. that's the narrative that no one's talking about, which is that the app store is good. that's service revenue. let's note the fact that there was not -- foxconn come out and say things are weaker, so we had the ability of loop capital, negative on apple, but i want to talk about apple being stronger

than microsoft. these are, you know -- wilt chamberlain being smaller than manute bol. they can't sustain the fact that they were 30% of the s&p. >> jim is right about the loop capital call. they say, look, we've been telling you the demand squeeze is on the iphone cycle. there's a huawei effect in china, they think the build is going to be light in the first half. >> china, we don't -- i keep thinking, when eunice yoo was here, and i said, can't they do a resolution trust? she said, no, it would be like a $6 trillion problem they have. things like falling for bankruptcy, $3 trillion shadow bank, and it's a $36 billion hold. $36 billion. when we had, in 2010, 2009, we had a banking crisis, you didn't hear those numbers. i mean, this thing -- here's a

bank you don't know that is $36 billion in the hole. who knows what's going on in china? >> right. >> they're not buying expensive cosmetics. >> right. do you think ces next week is going to give us a read on the consumer through the lens of tech? >> i always think it does. and i think that we're going to be surprised. we're going to hear about vision pro. we're going to hear about hey siri but really hey meta, and no one is paying attention to that. you ought to. meta is cool. it's cool. >> so, you're -- are you wary of selling too much of the mag seven at this point? >> i think that the mag seven is going to start breaking apart, and that i think that because i don't know how much the year of efficiency is for zuckerberg, but if they get the meta part right, then people are going to be saying, wow, they have -- they got a tiktok competitor in reels that's good. instagram is doing well. by the way, the ray-bans are just a bountiful instagram.

you walk in and click, and it's like, i'm taking great pictures. they're doing a lot of things right, and that's not an expensive stock. i think we're going to start -- everybody says mag seven goes down because there's so many etfs. i think we're going to start seeing a bifurcation of the ones that are actually doing a lot of good stuff. i mean, microsoft with the copilot. and are cheap. i mean, here's meta selling to, like, 22 times earnings. >> every time we talk about mag seven, you point to meta as maybe being the best value. >> i think it is. i think it is the best value. it's also, by the way, it's not a trillion. it's got that edge. but i just think it has this division that everyone's written off, and people aren't paying attention to what the divisions do. >> meantime, nvidia, i mean, the top pick lists continue to roll in. >> stop it already. i covered nvidia when it was 7 cents. named my darn dog after it. these are my nvidia -- this is nvidia. we have the camera. this is my nvidia cuff links, and i wear them.

this is my dog named nvidia because i wanted to staunch the decline. sometimes you have to throw a maid in a volcano. i'm showing it. dare to say. >> that too. >> nvidia was a great dog. i have wolfy on today. i put him -- >> the early riser? >> i was going to name it microsoft, but that doesn't have a ring to it. >> so, meta, good value. but you don't look askew at these top pick nvidia calls the last couple weeks? >> i like nvidia very much, but can we give it a rest? nvidia's great. don't sell it. every day, someone comes out and says, i like nvidia. where have you been? what, did you not like it? i liked it when i found out that the audi has all nvidia chips in it. that was 2012. >> in addition to next week, with ces, you're going to be at the jpmorgan health care conference. >> oh, man, talk about glp-1. there's a panel about whether people -- who's going to pay for it. are they going to pay for it?

i do think that there was something out this morning talking about the fda making, you know, cautiousry comments. look, when a drug is going to be a -- the largest drug in history, they're going to really analyze it. i'm getting ken, he's going to make more money off lilly than home depot. >> you think that's possible? >> i don't know. when he says a trillion dollars, i don't know his position, but who comes out and says something is a trillion dollars when it's at $400 billion? >> we mentioned the lilly direct news yesterday. today, cvs has some guidance, reiterating some diluted guide. >> i think -- i want these all out, because when i was there -- last time i was there, there was a jaw-dropping ceo announced on our show that he missed the number, and he wasn't prepared -- didn't have the number. i missed the number, i feel really awful. we're going to have david ricks on monday for our show, and that's not going to be like

that. i think lynch is doing an incredible job at cvs, and i can't wait to speak to her. >> the one thing we got from some analysts yesterday looking ahead to the conference is some don't expect m&a to be as big a part of the conversation there as in prior years. >> and i think that's completely wrong. >> really? >> yeah, because almost every company has a patent cliff. look what bristol myers did. they have this bad patent cliff. they can solve a patent cliff by buying companies. that's what pfizer did. merck bought this prometheus, irritable bowel drug. i think it's terrific. rob davis is doing a terrific job. bristol myers might be turning here. it might be turning. they bought a lot of companies, and remember, a lot of these companies -- good piece in the "ft" today about how venture capital is having trouble raising money. lot of biotechs were out of money or couldn't raise enough money, and you have companies that are doing really aggressive things in neuro. bristol is going after neuro. i was the spokesperson for the

american brain foundation. you go after neuroat your own risk. we're just starting to realize what's in the brain. vagus nerve, really key. first time i went to a migraine doctor, they said, vagus nerve. i said, i have tinnits, they said, vagus nerve. >> the pace of innovation in medical science -- >> go to your doctor. the pharma is well ahead of the doctors. i was speaking to pharma, and i said, do the doctors know about this great drug? they said, not yet. run some nfl ads. >> that's where the marketing and the free pens comes in. >> they got to run on peacock. >> not in the fourth quarter, though. when we come back, red sea concerns. the attacks, the impact on oil. you'll hear what chevron's chief

had to say about some of these geopolitical risks in addition to what mcdonald's said in that blog post yesterday. some weakness in the premarket but not as pronounced as earlier as the jobs print gets a second look. more "squawk on the street" straight ahead.

we're very close to the russia-ukraine conflict with our kazakhstan business. we also are the primary supplier

of natural gas in israel and have off-shore platforms that have been shut down during the conflict in the middle east. we have ships that have been attacked by the iranian navy within the last few months in the straits of hormuz. we've got ships that transit through the red sea that we work very closely with the u.s. navy and other military forces to ensure safe passage of those vessels. the reality of doing business around the world in our industry is we face these kinds of risks. >> that's chevron's mike wirth on last call talking about the geopolitical risks facing oil and gas producers, including with rebel attacks on ships in the red sea. numbers from one platform highlight the impact. shot container rates from shipping goods have soared 173% since mid-december. suez traffic is down 28%. you got maersk going back to diversions. ikea, anf, talking about delays.

>> mike wirth is gospel, and it's obvious that this market is in incredible turmoil. we had those eog comments saying there's going to be a decline in growth in the u.s. i don't believe that. but i have to -- i think that eog is too conservative. but through all this, why isn't oil at 80? i mean, the market seems to be taking this stuff in stride for the moment. >> it's really interesting. mike wirt h is talking about everything being suspect, and yet they're still producing. >> as far as container rates, "journal," great piece today. the stocks are doing well because of these surcharges but you got so much capacity coming online this year, 11%, the current fleet, it's going to offset some of that. >> i was going back and forth yesterday with herb johannesen for nordic american tanker. that could be the big winner. stock's atfour.

it's not doing anything. and i was saying, you know, look, herb, i know that you're supposed to be the way to play this, but it's not moving. he's obviously just saying, just wait. he talks to his book. i don't have a book. but again, no one's making any money off this stuff. we're just watching the geopolitical tension. typically, geopolitical tension should mean something, but this is not 1973. it's 2024. >> we do have blinken going back to the middle east, his fourth trip there since the october 7th attacks. then you have sort of the larger, almost rhetorical battle against american companies, which is what mcdonald's talked about yesterday. >> right, and i think we have to remember that as franchises, i'll tell you, it's so difficult. my travel trust owns starbucks, and starbucks doesn't have any stores in israel, but it's viewed as -- there was a tiktok post that basically implied that, you know, you're buying --

i don't to dignify what the tiktok post said. you're buying from someone who -- the strident, militant palestinian faction doesn't want to buy from them. it's not true. i don't want to dignify it. what does matter is that some of the stores had bad numbers. people hear what i just said, and they'll say, oh my god, that's all you care about. but as you said, the tape never stops. i'm not here to opine on what should happen. i'm here to opine on what did happen and the impact on the quarter, and it could be significant. >> here's what chris said. "disheartening and ill founded." separately, mcdonald's is cut. they think comps are going to be in line this year. pricing benefits start to fade. >> i find that when you -- to understand a stock like mcdonald's, you just have to look at the chart. and you can see that the chart says, well, that's an unbelievable move, and that's a

reverse, you know, it's reverse head and shoulders, so ultimately, it's going to be okay. but right now, like a lot of companies did really well, they're saying, listen, valuation is peaking. i say you sell that stock at your own risk. that's a really great company. and when it rolls over, you buy it, and that's what you do. look, if you really want to -- you want to bottle that, just go buy chipotle, because that stock -- chipotle and lululemon want to combine. like, hey, we're unassailable. you can't sell us. chipotle and lulu. those are two growth stocks that people just simply say, buy. and i feel the same way about mcdonald's, but obviously, these are -- chipotle's -- i read the other day there was a -- i looked at dylan, who works with me, showed me all the different grades that all the chipotles have in the city. they're all as. i mean, close the store if it's not an "a." don't look at cava, because you

might want to sell cava. you'll say, wow. bad numbers. >> we'll cover some more restaurants. there are a bunch of calls in the space this morning, including yum and qsr. >> yes. someone downgraded yum. we also had an upgrade. >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell. busy friday in light of jobs number. measure "squawk on the street" in a minute. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪)

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and responsible investing. let's get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell. >> constellation brands reported today, stc. they're going to be on tonight. beer is just incredible. i can't believe how strong beer is. their particular beers are doing amazing, much better than we have actually bud today, but if you want to kill it, you want to buy modelo. however, people are just -- wine and spirits, not going there. i continue to believe that the most challenged category in this year of 2024 will be the browns and the clears of hard liquor. people don't want gin. they don't want vodka. they don't want whiskey, and people have to start understanding. that bourbon sales are going to be down, and also, they've got some wines, but it's a tale of two. they don't have to get rid of spirits. i'm going to propose that to bill newlands tonight. >> you want them to spin off or sell? >> by the way, elliott partners

is in there, and i'm sure they feel the same way. i think bill newlands feels that way. i don't know if there's a buyer. the man who ran that division kind of mysteriously left, and bill took it over yesterday, but it is incredible. this is nothing to do with them. this is -- by the way, it's only going to get worse with glp, because the taste of whiskey is uniquely like water, they tell me. >> if you're on glps? >> yeah. it's like, whiskey, water. >> remember years ago when the fortune cover was, are we in bourbon bubble? you're saying it's the opposite? >> there are actual banks that got caught with barrel futures. they're too long barrels. but there is -- i think people are -- plus the chinese are not buying the very expensive -- >> oh, yes. >> forget it. >> of course. >> well, you and i talked the other day about the potential impact of cannabis on alcohol sales. >> cannabis is killing. >> and the rumors this week of

all the dea rescheduling. >> of course, constellation brands owns canopy. do not buy canopy. there's nothing there. i think there's nothing there. there's tilray, but i don't want to recommend anything to do with cannabis other than saying that cannabis is really hurting here. really hurting. >> we'll watch that. let's get the opening bell here at the cnbc realtime exchange. speaking of beer, at the big board today, it's the professional bull riders and anheuser celebrating the partnership of the sports competition at msg this weekend. at the nasdaq, it's xbp europe, a payments technology company, celebrating recent listing via spac. >> what a pincer movement by bud. professional bull riders. that's pbr. my favorite brand. get pbr at the rodeo. >> i assume -- you mentioned the modelo. that's the swing factor in this beer guide. >> look at this. we're talking about 11 -- we're talking about numbers for the beer -- beer is not being

affected. modelo especially outgrew 12%. beer is not being affected by glp. their beers. their beers are doing great. you would think if the stock missed on earnings per share, it would be down 10%, but no. we'll talk to bill about it. if they do find some buyer for their -- actually, by the way, they have casa noble, a really fabulous tequila. the tequila growth is 11%. forget it when it comes to -- wine is really slowing, but hard liquor. their high west, a very good brand. >> delicious. jim, we managed to open basically higher on the s&p. not by much. >> everyone's fed up with -- look, i'm calling it early. 9:30? there's cross currents. we had a decline two days ago in the last eight minutes, like, wow, what happened? there's just sellers, i think, who just have been waiting and waiting and waiting, and any lift, they want to sell the mag seven, and i say, look, guys, if

things don't go down a straight line. this is a bad week. there's a lot of people who are short those, probably, and they can bounce. remember my cuff links, nvidia, that's the good luck. we used to do that on the trading desk, put rally caps on, do all this silly stuff. like when i wore my same green shirt every day to the eagles, and we went to the super bowl, and i told tammy reid that the reason we did was because of my green shirt, and she said, you don't think andy reid had anything to do with it? there's a lot of superstition on the trading desk. but i do think that what's happening is stocks don't just go straight down. they just don't go straight down. apple, every day, i mean, loop capital is a little late to the game with the negativity, given the fact that the morgan stanley call is a very powerful call on the app store, which everyone has dumped on the app store, versus the foxconn, which is a negative story. accept the fact that stocks don't go straight down. >> there's some impressive action in some semis. amd is the second biggest s&p'er.

>> i pushed amd pretty hard last night, because i think they surprised people with the forecast, and remember, i did this pc refresh thing with the microsoft button. >> yes, yes. >> it was so clear that everyone had me on mute. they were like, mute him, he says pc refresh, but i think there will be a pc refresh. >> we'll watch for some of the impact on some of those names. >> how about costco? >> yeah, i was going to say costco. december comps. not just the comp, jim, but discretionary nonfood with a nice 4% print. >> wasn't that something? rich galanti is the cfo, who's just remarkable. he has a little quote about gold today. i bought my gold from costco. >> at costco? >> yeah. well, they finally came up. you finally could get some yesterday online. you shouldn't say -- but they sold $100 million in gold. you can buy it. there was an article in the "journal" about, why do it? how about the fact that there's no premium? i'm an executive card member, okay? and i had the visa. and i don't understand why everyone doesn't.

why don't you go to costco and see real prices? costco has real prices for everything. >> help viewers understand. yesterday, we talked about axp being a shelter. is that the same thing, rhymes with costco? >> i think so. >> higher income shopper. >> costco is always legendary, but count the beamers and the mercedes in the lot. >> membership fees. >> it's an amazing bargain. remember, they're doing a special dividend, but the way they make money is off the card. they want volume. and i think people keep misunderstanding. they want you to go there and beat them, so to speak. i remember when jim, i came in and talked to jim when he opened the store in harlem, and he said, listen, you probably want to go. we've got some stuff over there. and i said, i'm wearing zania. he said, we have that thing for so much less. i bought some costco ties. i wore them for weeks.

mary duffy, our major domo, didn't even know i was wearing a costco tie. ha ha! >> senegal is one of the best. >> oh, my god. now i got new guy. i got to tell you that there is something to be said for, if you want to look at costco, you get the economy. sun d sundries, food, and cooler were the strongest department. fresh foods were up high single digits, better performing departments include bakery and produce. well, isn't that where we're really being hurt? at the supermarket. you want revenge. they have lower prices. i think people should just stop, like, stop complaining. go to costco. just stop complaining, and go to costco. >> to tie it back to the jobs number today where you got wages up 4.1%, inflation is 3.1%. so, you're in a bit of a sweet spot on the consumer right now. >> thank you. yes. and that's why i say, i don't want to get negative. these are the numbers i want. a really good economy without that much inflation. jay powell has done a great job, and i think it's not perfect for

the stock market, but if you're worried about a recession, that's a mistake. >> yeah. the tape right now would definitely back that up, given the fact that delta, carnival on an upgrade today over at wells. >> wasn't that interesting? it was a shuffle because norwegian cruise, downgraded, and i thought that was just gratuitous. they're doing well. royal is doing the best, by the way. if people want to play that group. but i know that travel is still back. it still works. that's boeing and ge. take a longer term view. >> boeing, once again, top pick at wells. you know what the names -- i keep -- i watch the top picks all week. boeing gets a bunch. nvidia. and nike gets a ton again today out of ubs. >> you don't even have to be doing well. isn't that terrific? i get it. i do -- look, if you want one of the ones that is, i think, undervalued that people are realizing is good and not up today, you got to focus on

domino's, because russell weiner has that thing humming again, and that is, i think, if you want to be in that food -- that restaurant stoiry, it's that on. by the way, it's a great bargain. >> i was going to say, we got yet another cut of pizza today. and we talked about another one yesterday. is the papa john's/domino's share shifting that's going on? >> i think it is. papa john's only has six ingredients. i like their pizza too, but i'm a total domino's guy. by the way, domino's, russell has reinstituted getting warmer technology again. you kind of want to do that. but i just like the way his attitude -- he's really starting to get the franchisees moving. that's who drives that one. so, i like that. that's my favorite of the group. >> netflix, interesting piece in "the journal" this morning about gaming, looking for ways to make money and what they're calling a possible pivot, in-game

purchases, ads, charging extra for games. >> why not? did you see the number of downloads? it was -- i mean, it was like four times what it was a year before. i think that they're absolutely right to do it. very forward-looking company. and i think that they've got, by this time next year, they're going to certainly worth monetizing. >> right. >> look, i -- nothing's changed. you go to -- you know, people say you're over -- we have too many streaming. if that's the case, why is netflix doing so well? >> although, we have -- >> by the way, apple plus. >> i feel like we haven't tended the garden much on media this week given how much conversation there was about paramount, about peltz and disney. >> boy, were you ever right about that. disney, another couple of bad movies. disney is -- look, i think nelson peltz gets ammo every day. i think ike perlmutter, who built marvel, has to be unhappy given the fact he's a huge shareholder, and the stock does nothing. that is not going to endear -- i

know they have new people, and i respect the new people. but i do think that when you have a stock with the total shareholder return that is so bad, it does invite people who want to get on the board who have shaken up other companies, and it tends to work. i know that's very contrary to what people think. >> yeah. software, a couple of moves. jeffries -- i'm sorry, no. it's snow. rbc, initiate outperform, 230. and then this downgrade at palantir over at jeffries, underperform, down to 13. >> i know. last quarter wasn't bad. but that was their only negative. they love all that high-multiple stuff. they love monday.com hub spot. i saw an ad. build.com. it's incredibly expensive. they want those enterprise software stocks. they never stop. service now, $650, goes to $775. these are the stocks that get sold when interest rates go higher.

they get sold until they report the quarters, because that's what -- people want to buy ingersoll rand. they want tool and die. it's okay. i don't like emr, but they like it right now, they, meaning, the institutional money managers who want to be in stuff. like, i happen to like the stock of honeywell. they made a really good acquisition from carrier. i happen to like carrier. they made a really good sale to honeywell. these companies can do no wrong, and their multiples aren't that high, versus build.com. come on. monday.com. they're expensive. they're expensive. i saw another positive comment about salesforce. i own salesforce, my travel trust, since my at travel trust started. i'm not pounding the table 30 times earnings. i'm not. i'm benioff, hoping to see him next week, i don't know, he's not around. look at micron. they upgraded micron. there were several positive pieces about micron, and all that happens at the end of the day is down.

>> one of the laggards today. speaking of quarters, a week from today, we're going to start getting the banks. we'll talk about credit quality and funding costs and deposit flows. are you -- remember, we always talk about going into the quarter hot or cold? >> jpmorgan looks like nvidia before -- after the may quarter. i mean, look at jpmorgan. that is not -- now, it still shows only ten times earnings, but you know, what pressure. now, of course, they'll say, jim, we're under no pressure at all other than from you, so why don't you stop? no. how's their show doing? what time is the jpmorgan show on? is jamie on the 10:00? no. i get to talk. he doesn't. jamie dimon is the ceo. he does a really good job, but that chart is the stock of a red-hot semi meets a.i. no. it's a bank. >> you're not saying it's overdone? >> no, i'm just saying i wish it weren't coming in so hot. every line item is going to be scrutinized. by the way, charlie scharf had a

really great quarter, wells fargo, and the stock's been good, but you know, the stock is still down substantially from where it was in 2018. i prefer that. way down from 2018. >> sort of in that space in the fintech-y space, yet another downgrade today for paypal as btig joins the course, going to neutral. >> that was such a negative piece. ten times earnings, and yet they see no reason to buy it. i invited alex chris on the show last night. he's the new ceo. ben was saying, you can't slam it again. just invite the guy on to tell the story. alex, we're on at 6:00 p.m. just trying to give him a little -- >> your evening program. >> giving him an invite. it's not an invite to his funeral. it's an invite to tell the s story. >> sort of like you had with lisa gill last night. >> when cvs was at 50, she was saying, load up the boat.

that was a great call. she is so enamored of walgreens here, because she believes -- you get the stock at $23 -- that tim wentworth, as i do, ceo, is an amazing money manager. amazing moneymaker for money managers. so, watch walgreens, and there's also -- there's so much about what's going on in so many different areas. health care is probably the most in flux i have ever seen it. and so many companies need to buy so many other companies, but watch walgreens, because this guy is a miracle worker, and i may be setting the standard a little high for him now. >> if you missed lisa gill, sort of raising the curtain on the health care conference next week. take a listen. >> one of the things to think about when you think about pharmacy, it's the highest touch point of anything in health care, and it's been proven time and time again if you can keep a patient adherent and on the medication -- think about glp-1s. >> topical. >> yes. by the way, you know, there was a lot of misinformation about

the lilly call yesterday. one of the reasons why the stock was up and finished down. all they were saying was, look, we're going to use traditional places, places that get glp-1, but don't use counterfeit, and don't use this if you're just trying to get thin. we discourage it. you have a lot of stocks coming in very hot there. regeneron. amgen. those stocks turned out to be very inexpensive. merck was very -- 14 times earnings. these were companies that i really like, because they do not trade at the multiples of enterprise software, which are insane. >> jim, interesting to see, you know, on a morning where the thinking was, oh, we got to rethink rates. names like polty are up 1% or better. >> you posted a very good point. it's not a hot number. that means that housing will continue to be good. they're not building as many homes as they did before. raw costs are down.

they're making a lot of money. i happen to like toll. toll brothers bo amount of stock. this is not your grandfather's home builders where they're putting them up like mad and they have no buyers or even the 2008 period. when i literally went to the imperial valley to see if i shouldn't just buy land and become a home builder. which, of course, i should have. instead, i watched my daughter play field hockey. lucrative. >> goldman put out a mortgage rate, ending the year with a low 6%. it's not like that's going to collapse, in their view. >> mortgage rates are going to stay there, and the price of housing is going to go down a little. don't look at manhattan. that is a separate area. you're going to be able to -- i think you're going to be able to do well because i think there's going to be a glut of apartments that all started at the same time. now, i know i said ignore manhattan, but anybody who wants to see venice, the venice -- oh, i'm sorry, the giwannis, the

number of apartments that are being built along it, you would think it's the riviera. you really would. i mean, thousands of apartments. it all started at the same time. and i know that's anecdotal, but believe me, if they're building them around the giwanus which sometimes is blue, sometimes it's green, it's like the river in the movie, "the fugitive" on st. patrick's day. i'm always afraid someone's going to be smoking a cigarette while i walk over the bridge. >> yeah, well, the new supply online is definitely a story in the southeast. >> stay close to that story. people are not talking about the number of apartments that were started after covid. that are now coming on. and they don't talk about it because a lot of them are these private developers, but there's going to be a glut of rent, and therefore, there will not be that wonder of where you can stay in your rental or get a rental and be very inexpensive. that drives home prices down. >> we're going to watch shelter, especially given cpi on the way. >> absolutely. and look, i know that jay powell

is not happy that housing prices are up 35% from 2019, but he can't be happy about rates doubling. there's things that don't have anything to do with the fed fu funds rate. planters peanuts. >> can't change the weather. >> no, you can't. thank you. >> you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with jim. sign up at cnbc.com/jointheclub or use the qr code on your screen. if it gets out of the way from the take there, it takes you right there. as we go to break, watch bonds. we are going to get a little fed speak today, barkin. for the time being, though, watch the ten-year. s&p holding 4,700. dow is marginally positive. don't go anywhere.

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take a look at some s&p laggards for the week to date. jim mentioned this call out of

wells today where they upgrade carnival but cut norwegian saying they prefer ccl's de-leveraging path, valuation, their ebitda growth upside risk. we'll watch that and vf corp, mixed bag of semis in the mix as well. stop trading with m ajiin minute and the dow up 31 points. unlocking th e power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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let's get to jim and stop trading. >> i made a joke about a stock called how i met your mother. here's four recommendations for it. this is a 21 billion company that used to be the business of alcoa and the most recommended stock so far this year that i've found. >> really? >> yes. and it is a very good company. it does aerospace and ge is up a lot, people are saying well listen, how i met your mother, all i can say is, is that l.a. partners was right, there was money within alcoa if we broke it up, but it was all in this company howmet. >> i guess a comment on the need for airline capacity. >> 2 million screws in 747s. >> geez. >> you heard eunice, our correspondent in beijing

yesterday talking about the prospect of opening up more u.s. flights. >> it has to happen. i think that there's -- if you want to buy, remember macy's the one to play. they used to send the chinese junkets to the u.s. were ten times what they are now, they need more aircraft. that country is -- i just don't know what's going on in that country. that was the way that a lot of our retailers did well in new york, was because of the -- of these huge chinese travel ventures that are now 0.1 of what they were. they need planes. >> tonight what do we look senate. >> i have constellation. let's find out whether, other than kim crawford, good wine -- >> you're going to use your m&a consulting. >> yes, i am. and i do think that -- look, bill knows like everybody else, the decline in the -- in the -- in bourbon whiskey is really extraordinary. never seen anything like it. some of it is cannabis and some is glp. but these were the greatest cash

cows in the world. now they're not growing at all. very interesting. >> and then i imagine you'll look ahead to the busy week next week. >> we have so much going on in health care. never forget that while all this is going on, amgen is doing well. regeneron is an inexpensive stock. these companies became inexpensive because of the magnificent seven. >> how many interviews are you doing in two days? >> 17. >> in two days. >> last time my wife looked at my schedule, i count that you're doing 17 interviews. i said there's one more i just added. she said you're insane and went to bed. >> you're going to be a busy man. good for the viewer. see you tonight. jim will be at jpmorgan health care next week. when we come back, nec director lael brainard with white house reaction to the jobs numbers and a lot more as we have the dow hanging on to modest gains. don't go anywhere.

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl

quintanilla. we are live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. david has the morning off. take a look at stocks this morning. reaction to jobs is a little bit better than we initially saw. the s&p 500 up a quarter of 1%. nasdaq up 0. 2%. dow is rising 19 points. strength in groups like financials at the top of the list up 0.5%. consumer discretionary, energy, communication services. what's not doing well? defensive groups like real estate and health care at the bottom of the pile. for the week as a whole we're down 3% on the nasdaq, 1.5% or so on the s&p. treasuries in reaction to job. the gut was to sell treasuries with the 10-year note yield above 4% after the european cpi numbers which we'll talk about. slacking off a little bit. the 10-year went below 4. 30 minutes into the trading session. here are movers we're watching right now. fresh numbers out of beer maker constellation brands posting

better than expected profit, the sales did fall short and the company had to lower its full-year guidance. berkshire hathaway buying more shares of liberty media. an sec filing showed berkshire purchased 3 million of the voting and nonvoting stock for about $82 million. now holds a 20% stake in that name. and a number of top picks from the street this morning. nike, boeing, occidental and more we'll break them down on the move and all higher right now. >> let's get to ism services and factory orders and rick santelli. >> a litany of numbers and i'll try to go slowly here. orders for november expected up 2.5%. up 2.6%. you have to go way back, you have to go back to january of 2021 to find a bigger number. i call that three years. that's pretty good. but transportation, you could see where all the horsepower came from, drops from 2.6 to up 0.1 which is better than the

down 0.1% we expected. and if you look at durable goods, now these are final numbers, final numbers, so you're going to look for less movement. 5.4 remains at 5.4. that's the best since july of 2020. by the way, if we look at durable good orders, ex-transportation, we could see what happens there. it drops to 0.4. once again, same dynamic. transportation, aircraft, really kicking in there, up 0.4 isn't bad, that's the best level going back actually to may, to may of last year. now let's look at capital goods orders nondefense ex-transportation. a proxy for capital spending that remains up 0.8 and shipments down 0.2. that's 0.1 worse than our mid-month read which was down 0.1. now let's go to those ism services. the headline index, 50.6. that is indeed a miss.

50.6. we were looking for a number to be at 52.5. that was expected. 52.7 in the rearview mirror. prices paid, 57.4. pretty close to expectations. lower than 58.3 in the rearview mirror. that's a good thing. if we look at employment, which we just had the report today, of course, 43.3. that is a big miss. of course that goes into contraction territory. 43.3, way back machine, weakest since july of 2020. finally, new orders expected to be around 56. this is a miss, but still in expansion territory at 52.8. three of the four are expansion. we had disappointments, but the big digs disappointment is december read. interest rates have backed off on the data points. we move from basically 4.04

right down to, what, 3.98. we're under 4%. do keep in mind we see big jumps on the week in terms of yields. sara, of course, as we dip below 4% we're going to take some of that back. back to you. >> and the equity market follows suit, likes the yields moving south. thank you, rick. rick santelli. wait miss in services maybe important for the market to see as we know that's been the hot part of the economy. if you add that on to the jobs report, i think we should talk about it. there's a number of factors to highlight. first of all, overall headline with a much better than expected, more than 200,000 jobs added in the month of december, 216,000, that was better. it closes out what was an extraordinary year of job creation, 2.7 million in total employment for 2023. i think that was better than most people expected the year to go. the strength was somewhat offset by downward revisions we got in the prior two months. it left a level of payrolls in

december only 145,000 above the previously reported level for november. so takes a little bit of shine off the number. but it was still a good number. i think we should talk about wages because that's what market initially reacted to in terms of that spike in yields. it came in a little bit hotter than expected. good news for americans, maybe unsettling for the fed which is trying to target wages and inflation. average hourly earnings ceasing 0.4%. from last year that's about 4.1%, and it was a little bit of a step up from the 4% we saw in november. i think the reaction on the street from economists, this is not a number that will make the fed cut rates any time urgently. it plays into the let's keep rates restrictive for longer to see and make sure we have some progress coming down in inflation. which we have seen, but a number like this, makes you wonder if there's a risk that it sparks back up a little or stays high. >> yeah.

although household survey was weak. we got these negative revisions. we got ism services employment. the "journal" looks at the three-month average on private sector, 115 in december, the lowest since basically the economy reopened in 2020. october 44k given all the revisions. >> yeah. there have been downward revisions lately. makes you wonder whether this will be downwardly revised too. december seasonally and holiday, but, you know, we're also seeing real wage growth. we're seeing wages grow above inflation. something we did not see. >> yeah. >> that bodes well for the consumer. it's something that fed is going to be paying attention to. i think that on top of the -- did you see the european inflation numbers overnight. eurozone highly anticipated. they were expected to tick up a little bit. we did get that. the headline number up to 2.9%. that was a little bit more than expected, although on the plus side, core was a little bit lower. core was 2.4%.

sorry, core was 3.4%. that was a little bit lower than november. >> prior 3.6. >> yeah. it's still above target, but, you know, people are wondering if maybe it was too aggressive to price in 190 basis points of cuts for the ecb. that's where we were last week. now we're down to 140 basis points of cuts. it matters in that the market is trying to figure out how many cuts we're going to get next week. are they going to happen in march? the odds are decreasing after this data. >> europe is a complicated story. germany where retail sales fell almost three times the estimate down 2.5. the construction pmi there is under 40 for the fourth month in a row. germany has issues, which of course is not the only thing driving ecb snoopolicy. >> no. but the economy is in worst shape which is why the market was more aggressive in pricing the cuts for the ecb. when energy prices go up, then

the headline inflation thundernumbers go up. for every weak number how about the consumer, the costco numbers that were reported last night. i saw big jump in december, both in same-store sales and in overall sales. big jump over november. and then the only other thing i would highlight is the sound bite from the royal caribbean ceo on with brian sullivan on "last call," great interview, cruises are having a moment, but here's how he describes the consumer. really stuck with me. >> i can tell you that consumer is very healthy and when we -- actually when we poll our customers, we look at credit card data, you know, they're sitting on a lot of wealth a lot of savings, and low credit card balances. we're encouraged by that. but what we have seen is about a 30% increase versus '19 on on board spend. >> very bullish. let's talk about the economy, the jobs report, better than expected. just to review, u.s. employers added 216,000 jobs in the month of december. unemployment rate holds at 3.7%.

lael brainard national economic council director and former federal reserve vice chair joins us first on cnbc. it's great to see you, director brainard. welcome. how surprised are you by these strong numbers at this point in the cycle? >> well, i think the data that we saw this morning really confirmed 2023 was a great year for the u.s. economy. the economy entered 2023 with a lot of strength in the labor market, and it carried that strength all the way through to the end of the year. we are up 2.7 million jobs over the course of 2023. more than the best year of the previous administration and that took place at a time where the unemployment rate was consistently below 4% throughout the year, and inflation, core inflation, came down close to that prepandemic benchmark of 2%

over a six-month basis. that's a really very healthy economic picture. >> and what adds to it is that wage growth ticked up for the month of december. i mentioned the 4.1% from the 4%. but does that make you a little bit nervous because we know the fed has been trying to target inflation and wage growth certainly played into that, that it's going to be hard to do this last mile down to 2% target? >> well, i think you will find that president biden will always take a healthy wage growth number and this is just very good news for american workers. wages are growing. they are -- their purchasing power is up because wages have exceeded on a price adjusted basis, have grown over the course of the year, over the course of the administration overall, but what does that reflect?

it reflects proct -- productivity growth 2% over the previous year and inflation is coming down. core inflation down to that 2% range on a six-month basis so that's a very good picture for american workers. the american economy. >> but, you know, financial conditions have loose and lot over the last month on hopes that fed is going to start cutting rates, and it does make you wonder when you see mortgage rates drop and the stock market up, whether we're going to have stickier inflation or potentially another flare up in inflation after all the progress that's been made so far? how do you assess the risk of that? >>, you know, i think we just got the numbers on the supply chain index, and that shows that supply chains are actually all the way back down to normal, prepandemic conditions. biggest drop in supply chain

pressures i think that we've ever seen from very, very elevated levels. that's what's been driving inflation and that's why you see that that core has come into the 2% range much faster than a lot of forecasters expected. so i think the picture is much better balanced than any forecaster had predicted just a year ago. we're seeing those wage gains on the back of strong productivity. >> but the inflation is not in the supply chain as much or the goods sector. now it's in services, right? it's in housing as well. >> yeah, but -- >> those are the sticky parts. >> yeah. i think in terms of the core inflation numbers we did see those coming down last month to 2% on a six-month basis and that includes and very focused on services. even there we're seeing progress.

hougts, as you know, we have new rental numbers that had been coming down. those haven't fully shown through to average rentals but we'll focus on housing affordability. huge issues for americans and important to continue working on that. >> i wonder what you make of the noise that we get every jobs friday. it's usually the household survey versus the other one. the response rate on nfp has gone from 60 to 40% over the past decade. do you have a lot of confidence in the data we get every month? >> well, i would say that we are very, very interested in those payroll numbers. they have always told us a great deal about where we are on the economy, but as you say, there are discrepancies with the household survey that we're also very attune to, and so, you

know, every data release we try to take what signal it might have about the longer term trajectory of the economy, recognizing there are going to be revisions just like there were over the last two months, but the general trend i have to say, again, below 4% unemployment every month for 23 months at a time when inflation has come down into its prepandemic benchmark range. those are the kind of underlying trends that we are seeing month after month in this data. >> headline today, maersk, one of the biggest shipping companies in the world, rerouting red sea ships for foreseeable future. we've seen container rates spike on this, on the back of these houthi yemen attacks, even with the u.s.-led coalition to try to insure more security in the region. how threatening is this to global inflation? >> so i would say this is something that our national security team is very engaged

on. this is unacceptable, and they are working with a broad coalition of partners and in close contact with shippers on this. now, as you know, some shippers are diverting that adds days to delivery times, and it also adds to delivery costs. the u.s. is somewhat less subject to some of those because we are less reliant on those. you've seen very little effect actually on prices at the pump. americans are seeing a gallon of gas, the median is at just a touch below $3, so down $1.90 over the course of last year. so in terms of americans' pocketbook issues, we are still seeing very good progress on gas

prices and actually seeing progress at the grocery store as well. these are things that really matter to americans. >> right. so i know you must be frustrated along with the administration that the president and the administration doesn't get credit for the strong jobs market that we've seen, the fall in inflation rate we've seen and gas prices. we continue to see these polls and sentiment indicators that president biden doesn't get credit. i think it's because n , in par the administration gets the blame for helping spark the inflation problem we're dealing with. why shouldn't people blame president biden for that? >> so i think if you look at the economy that president inherited, the incredible supply shocks that we have had to navigate through, starting with the pandemic, continuing on with oil and gas prices, i mean the president has done an incredible job of addressing supply chain. this morning we saw supply chain

pressures are all the way back down to prepandemic. they were at a record high during the supply shocks he has taken policies to address and if you look at inflation, inflation follows that supply chain index almost one for one with a few months lag. all the work that's been done, trucking, shipping, infrastructure investments, chips investments, we just announced the second chips investment a few days ago and the private sector is making a lot of investments there that are already paying off, those are the things that led to big spikes in auto and washing machine prices and you're seeing the results. you're also seeing milk, eggs, chicken, fruits and vegetables, prices coming down at grocery stores. that's going to mean a lot to american consumers. >> lael brainard thank you very much for joining us. we priorate -- we appreciate it.

>> we'll get numbers next week along with the bank earnings. interesting to note the turnaround post services coming in weak. ism services buying of treasuries and the dollar went weaker. >> cpi and ppi all that matters at this point. we'll get it on thursday. take a look at the road map for the rest of the hour. apple sliding to eight-week lows. now microsoft closing the gap as the most valuable company. which is the better stock to own right now? we'll talk about it. >> a number of new bull calls in the energy space and dow stocks. we'll break the new calls down. >> bitcoin as the deadline approaches for the s.e.c.'s decision on the bitcoin etf. what's at stake for crypto investors and the etf providers as "squawk on the street" continues after this. together, we built something truly beautiful. it takes years of dedication to get to this milestone.

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as apple continues its tough start to the year another mega cap name closing the gap on being the most valuable american company. microsoft worth $100 billion less than apple, the narrowest gap season since november '21. which stock is a better bet? joining us is oppenheimer brent yang. raised the target from 400 to 450. martin has a buy rating on apple. great to see you. let's talk about the momentum on

microsoft. what does it have at this point that apple does not even if they may be in somewhat different businesses? >> yeah. microsoft has this year's ai move. they have the best ai lineup in software and they will be monetizing the back half of the year. there's a little bit of hype inside the stock and ai going into the beginning of this year, but we think that from a fundamental perspective they have the strongest lineup and you're going to see that in the back half. you have prices going higher. you effectively have value creation for clients going higher and the management team delivers margins over time, even while ai is expensive. we believe they will deliver upside to margins. you have the consistency of nadella and amy hood which have been phenomenal co-pilots to fly with and this co-pilot offering that's coming is going to be a huge impact for everyone both consumers and enterprises. probably more likely enterprises

first. so we're -- we continue to be as excited about microsoft as ever. we think the software has a 10% plus price lift on overall pricing because of ai. some of these companies are charging double the price of their seats for the software but there's a natural price list for the software industry. you know, given the run we've had last year i don't expect the same magnitude of out performance this year, but we do expect, you know, relatively good upside based on the fundamentals that we're seeing. >> really quick, on this keyboard button that would launch co-pilot, it got attention today, but i've heard some takes saying it's akin to an iphone moment for ai at large. are you going that far? >> yeah. i'm not super excited. i've said this repeatedly. i'm a big fan of the enterprise business and what they're doing there. i have not been as excited on some of the feature sets that they're adding around this area,

so we'll see, but i think ultimately microsoft is trying to reinvigorate windows and trying to get everyone to stick around on that platform and maybe this will be a good helper, but i'm not as excited. some have called it the paper clip when you ask questions and everyone just wanted to deactivate clippy and shell v him. we don't know yet. ac across the board we are encouraged by the progress they're making on enterprise ai which will be a driver. >> martin, what's the case for apple over microsoft? >> the case for apple we believe 2024 will be the first year we see mass adoption of consumer ai and then apple will be the single source of trust for a lot of currently what is perceived as a fragmented consumer facing ai apps. >> what about, yeah, i mean,

what do we know about the ai apps or story for apple? it seems clearer for microsoft as brent laid out? >> yeah. i think there are two stories. number one, we are seeing implementtations of large language models for a correction of inputs on iphone starting on ios 17, and over time, i think, especially for this year, in june, you are likely to see more enhanced ai functions that enhance photos and then there are journal and personal notetaking functions that will be assisted by large language models run on the device and the second layer will be running other apps that use on the device large machine learning functions provided by apple that will open to a much wider third-party developer ecosystem. >> pretty interesting. both names have given us a lot to talk about with the flip of the calendar. look forward to chatting with you guys in the coming weeks.

thanks, brent and martin. >> thank you. >> thank you. as we head to break check out the biggest gainers on the s&p to start the year. for the week, again the s&p is down about 1.4% for the week. moderna, that's a little bit of a comeback story, one of the biggest losers in 2023. also health care names like merck and other laggards of last year at the top of the list. verizon on their too. more on some of the market movers plus this little bit of a buying we're seeing here post services coming in weak. nasdaq up .6%. we're back in a moment. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics.

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five gears now the world will be using more oil and gas than it is today. >> more? >> five years more than it is today. we meet demand. we don't control demand. we supply-demand. we'll also grow our lower about carbon energy businesses and ru neebl fuels and hydrogen and carbon capture business. we need to reduce the emissions

from traditional energy, which we're doing, roo deucing our carbon intensity of oil and gas that we produce today, at the same time as we invest in new technologies to grow new sources of supply as demand for all forms of energy continues to grow. >> that was chevron's ceo last night on last call explaining his case as energy stocks go from laggards to leaders this week. that's been a theme for stocks as we kick off 2024. let's get to dom chu with more on what's moving. >> still a new kind of early in the trading year but the sectors off to a better than expected start here. you have health care, utilities and energy. each of those is up at least about 1.5 to almost 2% here just again in the first few days of 2024. but it's still an outperformer. within the energy trade, the traders are watching three big names including exxonmobil, chevron and occidental petroleum. each is being tagged as ap top pick by analysts atbank of

america. they cited positive momentum for adjusted cash flows and risks at current levels and exxonmobil would take a charge of as much as $2.6 billion to write down the value of assets tied to oil and gas production along the coast of southern california because of its inability to resume production given some of the regulatory hurdles there. exxonmobil up about p0.5%. boeing named a top pick in aerospace and defense. boeing shares down 5% on the year, up 1% today. nike is getting tagged as a best pick at ubs as well for soft line retail. they think the athletic apparel and footwear giant and dow component with boeing is a strong growth story with an outlook that has not been priced into the stock. nike shares up 0.5%. i'll send things back over to you. >> thanks so much. dominic chu. coming up after the break,

goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius with us and his take on the jobs number and what it ene' bk aou rate cuts ahead wh wreacin cple minutes. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc news update. the fda just gave florida the green light to import drugs from canada where medicine is less expensive. regulators also said they were committed to working with other states to make similar approvals despite opposition from u.s. pharmaceutical companies. florida officials estimated the savings in the first year alone could add up to $150 million. former paralympicic standout oscar pistorius is out of prison nearly ten years after he shot and killed his girlfriend at his home in south africa. pistorius has maintained he mistook her for an intruder.

the parole board approved him for release in november. prison officials say he will be under constant monitoring until december 2029. and the united nations says global food prices fell in 2023 from the previous year's record highs. according to the u.n. international prices for commonly traded food commodities fell nearly 14%. with only the prices of sugar and rice growing in the past year. sara, back over to you. disinflation. thank you. the american labor market still going strong. the latest jobs numbers out this morning showing solid hiring and firm wage growth. what does it mean for the fed and future of rate cuts? steve liesman here to put some of these numbers in context. good morning. >> sara, the stronger than expected jobs report is what the fed has been trying to communicate, improving on the inflation front and slowing of the economy will not be a straight line, but beneath the hood there's slowing i think

worth noting. i want to look at the three-month average for total and private payrolls. the number is up 165,000 over the past three months but that's down from 334,000 a year ago in january 2023. private sector also more importantly 115,000 down from 221,000. more than half of the number from last year. private sector gaining 164. that's because government is up 52,000. government trying to recoup the employment levels it had from before the pandemic. it's just barely reechgds it now. that doesn't account for any growth in the economy. there's leisure and hospitality along with health care. that's just going to do well no matter what is going on in the economy. the transportation and warehousing and temporary help perhaps the last one a leading indicator, softening and softening now for several months. construction and retail up 17,000. wage growth was 0.1 higher. workweek was down. the adp wage data has a much bigger data set like 10 million,

shown a consistent cooling. other cooling signs the ism services sector came in, the top line below expectations and the price and employment indices both fell. this data created tons of volatility for the fed. take a look before the jobs number you had a 65% probability of a march cut. after the jobs number went down, at least as low as 57, maybe lower than that, and now post those ism services numbers, back up. we're pretty confident it's going to happen in march again. on balance on what you have economic should make the fed less likely to cut. these are not the kind of numbers the fed is going to cut with but there's two more jobs report before the march meeting, three more inflation reports. that's the most important to figure out what fed does. the best hope for the market is that the 2023 trend continues. good job growth and yet surprisingly that falling inflation. sara and carl, you guys are having too much fun this morning with the jobs report. >> as -- >> we always do.

>> just wait. just getting started. thank you. steve liesman this morning. speaking of which, let's get reaction from the street today. goldman sachs chief economist head of global investment research jan squathatzius. >> here for the party. >> are you -- great call at 190. not far from the actual print. are you leaning towards the softer elements of this or the nice print itself? >> probably more the softer elements. i mean, i think it was a little bit more mixed than the unemployment rate and headline payroll number suggested with the factors that steve just walked through and also the ism on the softer side. it's a bit weaker. i don't think it's necessarily a roadblock to cuts from the fed relatively soon, but the main driver of cuts from the fed in our forecast is weak inflation. the inflation numbers have been soft and if that doesn't unwind

then i think we'll be at a point before too long, maybe by the march meeting, where they say, inflation is now sufficiently close to 2% and we should start to reduce rates. >> that said, you have not been seduced by all the talk of march cuts or june cuts, right? >> we have a march cut in the forecast. >> you do? >> yes. we do. basically because chair powell said at the press conference in december that they want to get moving if it becomes clear that we're moving back to 2%. the minutes said the same thing, and, you know, we think that year on year core pce inflation is falling to 2.5% by the end of the first quarter and i think in that sort of environment, with more deceleration expected, what they have said is consistent with cutting at least gradually. >> the other thing that jobs report showed today, jan, is that we're really seeing some real income growth, some real wage growth, which has been part

of your soft landing scenario, but now that wages are rising faster than inflation that bodes well for consumption which also may make it harder for inflation to come down. >> well, we certainly agree that the economy is pretty solid and strong real income growth is an important part of that, but it has not stood in the way of very significant disinflation in the united states and really across the world, and we think that's going to continue to be the case. there will be additional disinflation and even as there is inflation in a healthy growth environment the fed is likely to say 5.38 for the funds rate is too high. that's the signal that they have been sending. >> what about financial conditions? that's the other argument. we know they're watching it. it was mentioned during the minutes of the last report. does that threaten to keep inflation stickier than they would like? >> again, i think it is a good reason to expect the economy to be solid from a growth perspective. it's not necessarily going to

have a big impact on disinflation. yes, at the margin you're right, of course, that all else equal, easier financial conditions, stronger real income growth, stronger economy, means a little bit more inflation than you would see otherwise. i don't think it's something that's large enough to overturn that. >> do you think they are weary cutting too close to the election, they want to do earlier than later? >> that's not part of our thinking. we think they're focused on the employment side and the inflation side of the mandate, and that's how they make their decisions. >> what about conversations the last couple weeks about maybe slowing or ending qt, right, and thinking of treasury supply? >> there have been conversations about that for quite a while and market participants for much of 2023 thought that qt was going to end much earlier than what they had signaled. we don't see it as imminent. you know, we're thinking start

sending signals late in the year and then end it, you know, very end of the year or early 2025. >> you think they're going to cut in march and how many times in 2023? >> five. we have cuts in march, may, and june and then two more quarterly cuts in q3 and q4. >> you're where the market is than where the fed is in their projections and consensus i think wall street economists. >> we have a lower inflation forecast. the fed's forecast if you take the median projection in the summary of economic projections is 2.4% for core pce in the fourth quarter we're 2.2%. when you're getting close to 2% it probably matters. >> your recent track record has a lot of people paying attention. good to have you. thanks so much as always. >> great to be on. >> by the way, treasury secretary janet yellen not seeing meaningful shipping

disruptions, what we're seeing now can be described as a soft landing. >> tough year for nvidia but our next guest says the stock has room to run. find out how much higher he believes the stock can go from here. back in a moment with the dow up 120.

mega cap stocks suffering a drop to start 2024 with ai darling nvidia down 3% this week so far. that said it's not stopping the street from naming it a top pick. our next guest forecasting $100 billion in free cash flow for the chip stock by 2025. 45% upside. joining us with bank of america, semiconductor analyst vievec aria. reiterating a buy rating. i guess one of the debates on nvidia if there's going to be a point in the near future where they reach sort of peak growth when it comes to this big ai

leap they're taking? >> yeah. good morning, sara. you know, the point we made in our note is that the free cash flow generation, which, you know, to be sure is 24 plus 25 combined based on our projections, is just the cherry on top of what is a delicious cake. one of the layers of the cake. number one we think generative ai is still in early stages. these cycles don't just start and end in one year. these can be decade long cycles and there is three to four years of deployment and we're just in year two. generative ai is still in early stages. number two, nvidia's competitive position is exceptionally strong all the way from chips to systems to software. number three, towards the end of the year, there is a new pipeline they have at the b100 and other products that will have higher asps and more growth in 2025 and they're able to

generate free cash flows and that's the point made in our research. if i look at the free cash flow generation, it could be close to $100 billion, that leaves 60 to $70 billion for nvidia to go and look at inorganic opportunities, right. nvidia is a very strong company from a hardware growth perspective but hardware companies are not awarded the same multiples as software companies with recurring revenue engagements with customers that is an opportunity that is hardly recognized, the cash flow that nvidia can generate can have them look outside at engaging and partnering or doing m&a of software companies adjacent to the ai business and take them to the next level and help them get the price story multiple that stock deserves for this kind of strong growth rates. >> it's interesting. you guys have done work on the software side where you are raising the possibility that ai driven revenue might fall below

expectations over the next five years. and i'm wondering if those concerns migrate into things like hardware? >> carl, it is possible that we are in the early stages of what is a brand new technology. not everything has been sorted out. there is a lot of process of discovery that is ahead, but you have to realize that technology is its own growth driver, in that the cheaper and more accessible you can make technology, the broader the adoption of that technology, and that's an important role that nvidia can play because they are aligned with the cloud providers but also aligned with the enterprise customers. ai adoption is the next leg of growth but what enterprise requires is a way to make this technology more accessible by easier to use and that's where we think nvidia is broad range of partnerships, their ability

to deploy the technology on premise, and their ability to then go and partner and potentially conduct m&a can help engagement with enterprise. some ways a little too early to forecast where this technology could be four or five years are at early stages. i think nvidia has the opportunity to drive much broader than what consensus is projecting right now. >> thank you for coming on and stating the case. appreciate it. still ahead this morning, pretty volatile ride for crypto investors as the s.e.c. etf deadline nears. til bitcoin hold onto gains unthen? we'll talk about it when "squawk on the street" is back in a moment.

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checking in on the markets as we close out the hour, we continue to push higher, especially in the wake of the data we got at the top of the 10:00 a.m. which showed ism services a little weaker than expected. treasuries rallied, although they were rally off the initial reaction to jobs report. bob pisani to break down the action as well as what's going on with bitcoin. good morning. what are you watching? >> good morning, sara. you're right. the ism services weaker than expected. s&p futures moved up 20 points.

we want slightly weaker but not really weak data. it's been a rough start to the 2024, some big sectors are down here. just take a look here. cathie wood's ark is down 6% this week. russell 2000, great november, december, down. nasdaq 100. there's main street tech down 2.5. the only thing up is defensive stock, health care, consumer staples. we had a rise in yields this week. it looks like some people are questioning whether the fed is going to cut five or six times next year. i think that's healthy. so, we're working on overbought conditions. speaking of cathie wood and ark. this is ten years we've been waiting for them to do something on the bitcoin. the important thing, there are 13 companies that filed for bitcoin etf, cathie wood is first in line. they are supposed to give her thumbs up or no next week.

a wide range of fees. it's a rather complicated approval process. let me run it through you real quickly. basically, this is a new thing. we've never had a spot bitcoin etf before. there's two steps. there's a 19b-4 filing, where the exchanges have to file with the s.e.c. how they're actually going to do the trading. nyse, nasdaq is involved in negotiations about how this product is going to work. then the normal s-1 filing. everyone with a new security has to file an s-1 that describes what the security is, who's running it, that's normal. this a two-track process. we don't know how it's going to work. the industry is hoping that they will approve the 19b-4 filings and the s-1s at the same time. we don't know if that's going to happen. they may approve the 19b-4 and only approve some of the s-1s saying they don't like the application process. we just don't know. we're expecting something as early as this weekend, but likely monday or tuesday here. the important thing is remember,

guys, they have all sorts of gains going on with the s.e.c. and legal issues. there's the fee structure. a lot of people interested in this. people will put a lot of money into this. ark/21, 8 basis points, fidelity is 39. invesco at 0.59. they'll waive that for the first $5 billion in assets. as for bitcoin itself, the minute that we had an announcement from blackrock, it rocketed up at the end of last year. 30,000 to 40,000. guys, the question is, is this a lot of pull forward? like you get companies going to the s&p 500, they get pulled forward. look at that bitcoin price, pulled forward in anticipation that this is going to be happening. we'll have cathie wood on monday at halftime and etf edge. an interesting discussion with her on monday. >> good stuff, bob. thank you. bob pisani helping us understand

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good friday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. jpmorgan's chief economist reacts to the stronger than expected jobs number. does it officially take a march rate cut off the table? the largest producer of natural gas in the u.s. the ceo of eqt is with us. how is the conflict in the red sea impacting business? nat gas down 0.25% in early trade. some companies are struggling to fill openings. we'll look at how one industry is turning to high school labor to fill that void. first, though, a look at markets topping the tape. a seesaw between the jobs number and the reaction out of ism where we got the employment index in the 40s which took some pressure off yields. they reverse course. market hangs onto gains.