jason's. >> jason? >> so i like marriott here. consumer discretionaries will be solid this year. >> my other contrarian play would be abvie. 14 times earnings. >> so s&p is fairly positive, dow is negative. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you, scott. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. a stronger than expected jobs report and wall street still sees a 70% chance of a march rate cut. are they getting that wrong? that's what our economist thinks. she'll tell us why and when she sees the first cut in the cards. stocks respect off to a great start, but this metric says it could set the tone for the rest of the year. our guest is here to tell us all the places he's seeing opportunity. with earnings season upon us again, we look at three names

that could be positioned for gains into the future. let's start with the markets, though. the dow down 100 points at the lose, up 183 at the highs. down a quarter percent right now. we're going to snap nine-week win streaks for all of these, even with the s&p fractionally higher. the ten-year hit 4.103, but we reversed lower. let's not get ahead of steve liesman, who is sitting right here. >> i have an up and down on that. i think the stronger than expected markets is what the fed has been talking about. the improvement in inflation and slowing in the economy is not a straight line, but there is slowing going on. there were downward revisions of 71,000. unemployment rate, down to 3.7%.

a tick down, that wasn't good. average hourly earnings up 4.1%. there was some weakness here. three-month average for the total shows it's declined to 165,000 from 3.34. the private sector has fallen to 271 last january. so the three-month average is cooling. private sector up 164,000 this month, but government was 52,000 of the total there. leisure and hospitality still making up ground from the pandemic. health care, it doesn't matter what is going on with the economy. we need nurses and doctors. other cooling signs came from the service sector with a top line below expectations. the price component and the employment index both fell. this is what i was talking about

here. all of this data created a lot of volatility in the outlook for the fed before the jobs report of 65% volatility, that fell to 57%. or grew to 57%, and then it rose again after the ism at 68%. all that to say the market is still pretty sure of that march cut, but maybe now has embraced just a bit more of the doubt. the big question is after a year when the job market remains strong and inflation came down, how much should we care about the jobs market and impact on inflation? >> our next guest says die verging data is putting the fed in between a rock and a hard place. what are your thoughts today, diane? >> well, i think steve did a good summary there. one of the things i would go into is the devil is in the details. one of the surprises is in the household survey. almost all of the loss in employment that we saw in the

household survey versus that establishment report, payroll report was due to the fact that people left the labor force, mostly those over 55 left labor force, and that's real question stunning. we also had record number of people out on vacation for the month of december, ever for the month of december. so revenge travel has become system ekic now. we had an all-time high of multiple job holders. that in the 2000s and '90s it wasn't this way. but since the 2001 recession, we've seen multiple job holders rising to -- during a tired labor market, because employers have been more willing to be flexible with workers. it's a bit of a sad commentary that multiple job holders are necessary in an economy. what we are seeing is none like the '90s when multiple job holders fell as the labor market tightened. we see multiple job holders go to a record high.

those part-time employment went to a record high this month. so in that data, we also -- the wage data, you talked about it creeping up slightly, steve. we saw that huge surge in non-supervisory and manufacturing wages due to the uaw contracts, and some spillover that surprised me in the retail sector, as well. that was not expected, and gains that we saw there are things that the fed are watching, because they're worried that wages may not come down to be consistent to hold inflation at its 2% target over the long haul. >> i just want to bounce the following off both of you. it's looking back through some of the real rates and what's going on with markets. we've had this big increase in rates, 165 up to 185. i don't think it's a kcoincidene we're seeing the stocks fall. we've seen some officials doing so, so is the market trying to

tell us they should be cutting here? inflation expectations have not picked up. in october, 2.5%. we're down at 2.18. so it seems to be saying to them, you have the space, you can take the cuts. but i don't hear their rhetoric setting us up for that. >> i don't think so either. i think the fed has other considerations to take into account, which is the consideration of what if that is the wrong call? what the fed does not want to be doing is be in the business of reversing itself again. so it's going to be darn sure that inflation is vain quwished before that happens. dan, i am in the process of a conversion here. i'm converting almost entirely to adp wage data. >> oh! >> i'm not quite there yet. i've got a meeting next week that is off the record for the moment. with you is going -- >> it's really great data. >> let me tell you the story i

just found out. the atlanta fed wage tracker uses a survey sample of 2,000 employees. you want to know what adp is? 10 million. 10 million. and it's paycheck data. >> i'm right there with you, steve. >> i'll tell you, that's the reason why i did not highlight in my report -- >> so is adp wage data softer? >> the term we used this morning, it's been coming down and coming down. here's the other thing i know, powell -- >> especially for job switchers. >> right. powell has used this data three times, a non-public part of it he's mentioned it, that they're getting some of this data. i'm talking to neal about us getting this data and making it public. the deal is that -- i'm not yet converted to their payroll report yet, but i am to their

wage data, because it's 10 million paychecks. and they also, by the way, get the actual hours. if i ask you, kelly, how many hours did you work last week? you wouldn't know, i don't know. but these are paychecks. >> i'm excited because you make the point that we were -- diane, in answering that, just a little bit of a wonky ecomm question. would i rath ver have a sample than incomplete data set? would it be better to have 1800 people represent the economy or 10 million? >> i think basically we have to use all the data together. that's what we are doing. i love what they have done with the adp report and the data. it is very useful now. there is interesting things in that data. one of the interesting things is that if you pay doctors more, they retire sooner. >> interesting. the other thing, diane, there it is. betsy got it up.

this is the story here. diane, can you see that chart? what we are seeing here, that's the atlanta fed. do you have the other chart there? what that shows is the premium to changing jobs is less now than it was before. it's narrowed. so it was double digits. now it doesn't -- there it is. it's just come up, we're doing live television here. this is action economics here. and you can see that gap narrowing. >> diane, do you think this makes the case for the fed having plenty of rom to cut rates? >> this is the issue, that the fed needs more evidence. the biggest mistake you can possibly make in central banking, the cardinal sin of central banking is to cut and have to raise again. so whether they cut in march or may, that's not going to make a lot of difference for the overall economy. but waiting that extra time to get more data to feel really comfortable, that inflation is

not only going to the 50% target but will stay here, that is what the fed needs. i think that -- thinking like a central banker is really important here, because that's one error they do not want to make. >> diane, you don't mind if i interrupt you and just remind you, powell has said, we can cut before we get to the 2% target. so there is a certain -- how shall i say it -- anticipatory nature to the process. so it doesn't have to be there. they have to be sure that they're going there. here's the question -- >> going there and it's going to stay there. >> i'mpreempt kelly's next question. if you have the easing of the job market along with three inflation reports that show this

trend back to 2%? >> it could be. there's no question it could be. it's not my bet, but it could be. >> right. >> this is, you know, the one thing that i think of voltaire these days, what is his quote? uncertainly is an uncomfortable condition, but certainty is absurd. i think certainty about anything right now is absurd. >> does it matter, diane, i guess the question i have, and i ask myself this question, we spend a lot of time pounding the table, but does it matter? the only thing that matters is this -- is the market -- it's very anxious to see if the curve will disinvert. and when that happens, it will create a series of potential financing events and things that can happen. for example -- >> good or bad? >> well, both, i think. for example, if short-term rates

are below long-term rates, you might think about a floating note. but when they're on top of each other where they are now or they're inverted, you wouldn't really want to think about that differential right now. once that happens, it creates a series of financing things that cfos, wall street investment bankers, they're going to be interested this that. one of the questions i have gotten, steve, when do you think this all happens? that creates this cascade of things. it's a born normalcy for the economy. >> it's better for the banking sector. is it the bad kind of disinversion that comes when the economy is slowing? diane, what would tell you that we're really -- do you need a negative payrolls report before it's lights out and otherwise thinking expansion keeps going? >> well, you need more than one negative payrolls report to think the lights are out, given how close we're nibbling at that, as steve said, we've slowed on private sector

employment report. that said, i think a soft landing is important to remember that's not the same as no landing. so if we do have this slowdown in hiring, that does edge up the unemployment rate, that's a squeeze on margins, what we saw this the ism survey today. >> great point. mae maybe it's an aberration, maybe not. thank you both so much today. we appreciate it. the dow is back near session lows. erasing a 138 point gain. let's get more from dom chu. how is it looking? >> it looks the way it did ahead of the opening bell on the heels oh of that jobs number that came out earlier this morning. so we saw what was implied to believe about a 180-point downside, and we got the upside later on this morning. so we're just about flat on the session right now. so if you want to call this a goldilocks scenario, i guess you can say on balance, after

everything was digested, things have been taken in stride. the nasdaq up up on the decision. the s&p, just about flat, as well. and the dow lagging just a bit here. 107 points, 37,336. interesting to look at the state of play right now. yes, we're only a handful of days into the new trading day so far. if you take a look at the overall picture for this year-to-date gain right now, i'm showing you the intraday moves. if i showed you the chart of the year-to-date action, you would see that health care, you would see energy and utilities as the best performing sector so far on that basis. now, let's talk about one of the moves that we are seeing overall today in the financial side of things. we have seen a slate of moves mixed overall, but generally to the upside so far today. names like capital one, bny

melon and others are all up on the day to next week. jpmorgan chase gets that kind of star over here because it hit a record high in trading today. all these other guys get check marks because each of these names hit their own 52-week or more high so far today. so keep an eye on the financials. that's the current state of the market right now. >> you wonder if it goes back to the uninverted curve steve was talking about. dom, thank you. stocks are on track to close the first trading week of the year with four consecutive down days, and that could be bad news. the first five trading days are an omen for the rest of the year, but my next guest says he's rarely seen this many good investment opportunities. here with me now is the chief investment officer at federated. great to have you here. >> likewise. >> your mood is so different from a lot of the -- maybe it's not as different right now. we have seen a lot of optimism

around the turn of the year, but you're saying you see a lot of opportunities out there, even with stocks at all-time highs. >> we're thinking 5200 is the target for the end of the year for the broader market. so probably single digit return for the market, maybe 10% off of current levels. but we think the excitement is underneath, because obviously, most of the return in the market last year was the magnificent seven. everything else didn't do much. and now, you know, there's so many stocks out there that are still 10, 20, 30, even 50% off their old highs. as we break through, if you get into an economic situation like you've been discussing that's not a big recession, we think it happened already. >> you think it happened already? >> yeah. >> that kind of series -- mini recessions, manufacturing, sa months negative. >> our rocky landing that we

were going through a recession for the last 18 months, chips, housing, commercial real estate, et cetera, and i think we were going to look back and say the recession already happened. so once you get to that point, then all these stocks, these higher risk stocks, lower cap stocks, value stocks, cyclical stocks, emerging market stocks that have been held back because the recession is about to happen. and the date of it keeps getting pushed away. >> you were optimistic all of this year, and the market and the facts have come around to that point of view. so you think we -- it's kind of -- we can keep going? >> yeah. >> you have some names here. new fortress energy, pnc, ten cent in china. you're not afraid of emerging markets either. >> those are the most oversold stocks in the market. with the dollar starting us off, interest rates coming off, and

expectations being so low. i mean, everyone's calling china uninvestable. >> hong kong, didn't they have four down years in a row? >> that's usually a bell ringer. so these -- ten cent, let's call it the facebook of china. it's trading in the single digit multiple, down 60% off its highs. all you need is just a whiff of good news and those stocks are poised to have big moves up. >> do you have a point of view on the mag seven, which is jokingly being called the lag seven? you specifically avoiding that? is it fine to keep holding it? some of these were considered value stocks a year ago. >> i think the stock picking theme still plays out. we're kind of looking for specific names there, like google as maybe a less expensive option. even meta, which we talked about ten cent before. but broadly, to me, the mag seven have great fundamentals. people know that.

the stocks price those. they'll do okay. we have them as market performers as a group. so within that, i think you can make a little bit of money, but i don't think that's where you're going to make more than single digit returns this year. >> and one interesting thing given the discussion is the data giving the fed urgency to cut or not. you think we aren't going to get as many cuts. i'm sure you looked at the jobs report this morning. >> just not going to happen. >> you sure? >> yeah. you know, i have to invest money, so i have to have a base case. we could try to understand the fed psychology and the guy running it. right now, jay powell embarrassed himself two years ago when he took too long to hike. he's sitting there, his guys have done the studies, arthur burns, they cut three times early. then they had to hike again. he doesn't want that to repeat. he has two goals.

one is full employment, one is inflation. he's hat goal number one. so it's not like he needs to cut to get employment better. and he's still not at goal number two. well, even the wage number, i know people are saying the hourly for different reasons, but it was a positive surprise today. it's still running at 4%. and that is, in a structurally tight labor market, which he sees, which is sort of like sort of the supply side problems we had in the '70s. it's going to be very difficult for them to kill inflation. it's going to stabilize our guest between 2% and 3%. not terrible. but there's no anxiousness to cut. by the way, one reason i'm so confident about no six cuts, it's an election year. once you get to the july meeting, he really can't cut until december. >> because it will look too political. we spoke with david bonson the

other day who says this market could be range bound for years because it's fully valued. it's 20 times. the earnings expectations are too high. do you have a response to that? >> yeah. this is what -- you know, we haven't broken through to the old highs yet, kelly. so we're still in a bear market. this is like 2013. everyone saying we can't go any higher, because everyone had that double top on the s&p this their heads. when we break through, and we'll do it with the other stocks that are not anywhere near overvalued. a lot of the stocks you just mentioned are in single digit multiple range here. so there is room for the broader market to move higher without being remotely overvalued. >> interesting. steve, with the confidence and many ideas that you mentioned, thanks for joining us. still coming up, crude is on track for its third positive week in four as the situation in the red sea continues to worsen. energy expert dan yergen joins

us with his thoughts on where the conflict and oil prices could go from here. and big tech results are right around the corner, so listen up all your retail options traders out there, we'll tell you which names could get a preearnings boost. stay with us.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back. oil is about to post its third positive week in four as houthi strikes continue to keep red sea commerce at a near stand still. shipping giant mersk will divert all vessels around africa's cape of hope. here's what jennifer granhnholm said this morning. >> this conflict has had an impact on energy prices. for us in the u.s., gas prices are at $3.09 today, $3.089, something like that. more than $1.93 lower than the peak after putin's war. 30 states the average is less than $3 a gallon. so so far, we aren't seeing the price per barrel or the impact at the pump, but obviously, the united states is on it and is

leading this coalition to protect those commercial shippers. >> let's talk to the next guest about where we might see the biggest conflict. we're joined by s&p global vice chair dan yergen. dan, great to have you here. how serious a conflict is this? >> well, i think it's serious, but it could get more serious, obviously. we're starting to see an impact on oil prices, geopolitical risks coming into the market that until now has been dominated by supply and demand. and if supply exceeds demand and it shows now signs of backing off. so the next stage would be if you saw a real response, and we have seen mersk saying they're going to stop sending their ships through the red sea for an indefinite period of time. what is does the behavior of the oil price tell you, or is it too soon to know? >> i think we're starting to see that oil prices haven't responded to geopolitical

tension, to what's happened in the middle east. the reason it hasn't responded i think is because of this phenomenal growth and supply from north america that today north america oil and gas is greater than the production from the middle east, which has been a real stabilizer. but the red sea has become an important channel for oil. before the october attack by hamas, about 40% of what was passing through the strait of hormuz was passing through the red sea. that number is now down to about half that. >> wow. we spoke the other day and i asked if we should expect bigger sanctions enforcement on iran, as this ramps up, which could affect the global oil supply. she said it might not, because so much of that iranian oil is going to china. it's circumventing the u.s.

dollar system. how should we be thinking about losing the risk of some of that supply into the market? >> i think it could be certainly tightened up. you could see the sanctions stepped up. also, there are other things going on. there's disruption in libya, about 300,000 barrels a day. so there is an overhang of supply, but so much of the tension basically revolves around iran and its proxies in the middle east. the incross environments, and we've seen in u.s. responding to the 120 attacks on u.s. troops in syria and attack, with this takeout of somebody in an iranian led militia leader in iraq. i think you have to be very conc concerned and our clearly guided by iran, including iran providing them intelligence of

which ships to attack. >> as a student of history, where would you be watching for this to broaden out or escalate further? and if it's kind of watching markets and oil market and thinking, well, you know, again, it doesn't look overly exercised about what seems to be a widening conflict, what does that tell you? >> well, i think that the big difference in the past is the position of the united states, canada, and the western hemisphere. if we just look at supply and demand, there's more supply coming into the market than demand in 2024. i think it would be -- if you started to see real disruption, and we haven't seen that and what you can see is the tankers simply go around the cape of good hope, so it adds costs. but i think there's just this general nervousness. the other thing, kelly, about a third of container ships come through the red sea. so it's not just oil and gas, but it's the overall supply

chains. we thought the disruptions were behind us, but that part, as we go into february, that could be a bigger problem. >> it's fascinating to think about the implications here, where our ability to increase our own energy supplies might undermine the urgency with which we tackle the mideast situation. in a way, if oil was at $130 and the price of gasoline was upwards of $4 a gallon, we would be seeing a lot more going on to restore calm to the region, don't you think? >> i think that's absolutely true. this is an election year, and i think the viewpoint of the biden administration, there are enough problems in the world that it doesn't need more. so i think at this point, it will try and deter the outhis. if it stays where it is, we'll see an impact on price, but not a dramatic increase that would really cause a greater sense of urgency. but i think the position of the united states by far the world's largest oil producer, it has not

only a rebalancing supply and demand but rebalancing geopolitically also. >> dan, thank you for your time today. still ahead, earn while you learn. that's one way to try the solve the historic shortage of u.s. construction workers. plus, the bear case for airbnb. it's begun, accordin ining to burnstein. expecting long growth ahead. the analyst joins us to make his case with shares down 40% from the all-time high three years ago. go. and go and go and go. (tense music) but what if you. (tense music) stop! you work hard. it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank performance savings is built to put your money to work with some of the highest rates in the country. going, that's what got you where you want to be.

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exchange," everybody. i'm tyler mathisen. with your cnbc news update. house republicans plan to move forward next week with holding hunter biden in contempt of congress. the president's son defied a congressional subpoena last month to appear for a private deposition, saying he would only testify if the testimony came in public. a u.s. fugitive accused of faking his own death has been extradited to utah from the united kingdom. the fugitive, known as nicholas rossi, faces complaints made against him for domestic violence in rhode island. his run from the law took a twist when he was arrested in 2021 after being recognized at an airport in scottland. since that time, he had insisted to authorities that he was an irish orphan named arthur knight, who had never been to the u.s. gamers can have their toast and eat it too. if you've got $40, you can go to walmart and buy yourself an xfx box series s toaster.

yes, the two-slice toaster looks like the console and burns the xbox logo into your toast. this is important for many people. this is not the first small appliance, by the way, from xbox. it sold a mini fridge at target back in 2021 and '22. and kelly, i think the idea of xbox etched into your toast is the next big thing in the household. >> they should have come out it for the christmas season and some who couldn't get an xbox, here's your xbox toast. >> can you play games with it? no, but it makes a nice english muffin. and i want to tell you, kelly, we are christening our new set location here in studio-a with this broad cast right here. >> you are in studio-a right now? >> i'm where you used to sit. >> wait till people see it. it's gorgeous.

thanks, tyler. tyler mathisen. coming up, three buys and a bail tech earnings edition, featuring this surprising name our trader is bailing on. think you know what it is? tweet me, it's a biggy. that's after the break. il. back in positive territory stl negative on the week, though. stay with us. of investment risk, do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and markets that can provide critical insight. manage your climate risk with ice.

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welcome back.

it's a choppy start to the year for big tech. piper saying the mag seven has become the lag seven, and saying they have underperformed since the october low. but our trader isn't giving up on big tech and is looking ahead to earnings for names that could see pre and post report boosts. danielle, great to see you. let's run through the first couple to get to your bail, which is interesting. the first buy is meta. what makes this one you want to hang onto coming off a relatively hot streak? >> so i like this stock, kelly, because the long-term trend looks great. the pullback here was relatively soft, into the 21 ema on the daily chart. they have done and reacted really well to earnings the past several quarters. so when i'm looking for a stock that may rally going into an earnings report, that's what i like to see. i like this one with the

strength it's demonstrating today. i'm going to be trading this one around 365, 370. >> next one is amazon. all of these, are these names you would go buying into the report and wait and see you you think the charts work either way? >> what i do with these is i buy and hold them in long-term accounts. but also for earnings specifically, i trade them in the options market. so with amazon, if i'm going to buy this before the report with options, what i would do is when it triggers to the upside, i would buy those options and ride those options for an increase in implied volatility, going into the report. but then sell them to capitalize on that rise in price before a ball crush comes through. so with that trade, what i would like to do is when i start to see that stock shift to the upside, i buy it here, targeting about 150, 155, get out before the report, and then trade a post earnings move, as well. >> so that would be about $5 of upside. i like your optimism on these.

microsoft is a little more consensus. it's only 3% below the november all-time high. you would be owning this one, as well. why do you think this one and some of the others are going to experience better momentum in the next few days, weeks than they have so far this year? >> so kelly, i like the consolidation on microsoft and it has typically performed really well during that preearnings time frame. this is a trade i like to do quarter over quarter. generally, i'm going to come in about three weeks before the report, buy an option on this name with the idea that i'm going to ride it up into the excitement before the news. now, the problem here is that microsoft has been a little bit stagnant, and that's the number one criticism i'm getting. danielle, people are saying, microsoft is not moving. but i'm still going to trade it. i would like to see it back up at the previous all-time highs. but i'll tell you that, you know, if this stock does start breaking down, that will be the biggest canary in the coal mine

for this earnings season. >> so maybe the upside is $380, that was the late november high in that territory. how much downside before you bail? >> let me see. i look at the 50 simple on the daily charts. that would be below $365. let's give it $363. that would be a line in the sand to say this is triggering to the downside. at that point, i would be pretty cautious about continuing to hold this on a short-term basis. but i'm going to hold my long-term stock. >> that brings us to your bail, which is apple. it's off to a bad start with a couple of downgrades this year. what do you see going on here? >> so when you look at apple, i don't like the way that it reacted for the last several earnings report. that's a bad sign, and when you have that, the stock typically isn't going to rally as well.

for that reason, i'm not eyeing it for a bullish trade prior to this report. but then also you have some critical breakdowns in the stock. so if you look at the chart on the daily charts specifically, it's broken down below the moving average. that's a critical support zone and it broke down on high volume, as well. when a stock does that, it tells me that there's something wrong with the technical aspect here. so that was one sign. but i'll tell you that the next zone of support is going to be around $180. so if we end up breaking that price point, that is a key, key line in the sand, and that's where we could see the stock break down. so i've been hedging out of this stock and i haven't shorted it yet, but i would short it if it breaks $180. >> just under $182 there. danielle, thank you today. appreciate your time. >> thank you.

this week's losses by the way push apple's 14-day relative strength index below nine, the most oversold name by that metric. and for a full list of the most oversold names, you can go to our website. we have over 100,000 more construction job openings than a year ago. one place is looking to high schools. kate has that story in san francisco. kate? >> reporter: 17,000 construction jobs were added last month, but as you mentioned, there is a talent shortage that will impact the workforce moving ahead. we'ltel ll you much more coming up after the break on "the exchange." the drink made from whatever was laying around, or the one made with your drizzly haul? drizly! stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. drizly.

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welcome back to "the exchange." the construction industry is actually one of the highest paying fields outside of the business world, but it's struggling to attract workers. construction added another 17,000 jobs last month as it

remains one of the steadiest growing parts of the economy. but could that number be higher? the industry is now pairing up with schools to try and fill more roles. kate rogers is out in california with those details today. kate? >> reporter: yeah, kelly. you said it. the construction industry is certainly searching for workers. as of the end of november, there were about 500,000 open jobs. that number is up 100,000 from the same time last year. it's also at the highest level since 2022. now, one way to fill the gap, of course, get younger workers interested while they're still in school. southern nevada trade high schools opened in august last year, looking to do just that with its first cohort of 75 students. they'll take a full curriculum of classes, including english and math, and they also take construction. >> it's been very popular with families who are saying that the students are maybe not

interested in traditional education or potentially not necessarily wanting to go to college. so it offers an opportunity for them to come and get hands on learning. students are constantly being reinforced this is how what you're learning will impact your future and the workforce and in the trades. >> reporter: they're certainly going to have options once they graduate from school, as construction and manufacturing spending is continuing to grow in part thanks to funding hitting the street from the infrastructure bill and the "inflation reduction act." >> it's hard to build the dollars over the next four, five years. it's going to be coming out and that's going to have a big impact on skilled labor and the shortage we're basing right now. >> reporter: kelly, this is an issue we have talked about for many years now. not only in the construction industry, but a lot of baby boomer retirements are taking place, and there are not enough workers moving into the workforce to take those positions as they open up. >> you're at a residential site.

we know huge government spending and construction, as well. >> that's right. they do need roles of all kinds, and the best news for younger workers who may be considering college but aren't sure if it's the right fit is that a lot of these jobs pay well. jobs, walter jobs that struck between 30 and $40 an hour, kelly. you don't need a bachelors degree to fill them up. this is a residential site. obviously, nonresidential construction. the government funded projects have been a lot of where these openings are turning, up it will continue to be opening in the future. >> kate rogers, good to see. thank you so much. we appreciate your time. coming, up analyst at bernstein have a warning for airbnb bears. they say they're looking at the wrong metrics. us stop at 55%ve or the past year. that's next. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading.

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bernstein is calling out to airbnb bear city saying that worries about the company's futures volume growth being too optimistic are flat out wrong. instead, bernstein says that they have a performed on volume and will continue to do so. for, now let's bring in the analyst behind the call. good to see, welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> on the one, hand the bear case has begun and yet you remain bullish, what's behind that? >> i guess as we've come out of

2024, and people are aware of what performances of looks like over the last few years, people are questioning the fact that airbnb is -- by 8% on our per year over the last four years. that's a lot less than what grows out over the next four years. we wanted to have a look at that, if you see the properties have grown out of a percent. what's really happening, what's a real value measure, that's accustomed to the numbers, that's more like 10%. so the properties, on average, have gotten bigger. therefore, looking purely property numbers is not showing a true volume growth. >> so i understand fundamentally what you need volume growth in the stock to do well, but there is still an argument to be made for profitability. so just kind of balance those two factors. how important is volume growth? why do you think that's the real metric? >> yeah, i think there is a lot of operational leverage. it is a business that doesn't

have a large cost the sales, particularly for airbnb. it's very low and its marketing. if you do deliver that volume growth, and price, growth people tend to prefer volume growth, you will deliver this on top of that. i think it's always been a key metric. it shows that it's gaining share of the market. we believe it comfortably has been, it will continue to do so, as we look forward. >> what do you think is behind the bare case on the stop? is it that airbnb has gotten too expensive, that the growth rate has peaked, all of the above? >> yeah, i think that's, that's key. the stock does trade on a recently high multiples, with the bar set by this. i think there is a concern than airbnb is maybe a value products. and it's a value proposition relative to hotels, that the customers will keep using. it because of this, on a property, level it's 40% more expensive today than 2019.

that brings about that concern. that is throwing up on this level. it's more like high 20% more expensive, which is much more -- so we don't think that value proposition is going to change. >> how can that be the case of the properties 48% more expensive than it was four years ago, but the customers only paying 20% more? >> the properties have gotten bigger. they are paying the supply growth over the last four years has been much more than four, five edge of houses. actually, the number of private room share, the origins of airbnb, that part has strong over the past few years. the number of properties on airbnb is up north a 60% over the last few years. we've seen the average property get bigger. it's housing eight, 9% more customers than they were going forward. i don't think that's the metric the company discloses, and probably their thinking about the volume of price growth that airbnb has delivered over the last, through the pandemic. >> that's interesting because it goes back to the other question i would ask which is we've seen crackdowns in new york, other major cities.

they seem to get right at the heart of the offering of airbnb in the first place. hey, stay in my apartment for weak or something like that. how much of a threat are those kinds of regulatory responses? >> less of a threat now than they would've been four years ago because airbnb has become much more of a rural, suburban, small city product. that's where the business is growing. it's much more international, more diverse than it was. so new york was less than 1% of sales. no individual city is more than one set a sales. very diverse business, and really, the growth in areas where there isn't a relationship coming to light. >> one 66 price target, 30% is an upside. i think it was the internet back seven which we talked about with mine haley the other, day it's been on a good run. you're sticking with that. richard, thanks for joining. as we appreciate it today. >> thanks. >> richard clark, that does it for the exchange, up next on power lunch, we turn our attention to the national debt at a record high, congress can

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alongside -- we are watching the markets very closely as socks are trying to hold on to gains. the job report is coming in stronger than expected. maybe taking a little steam out of that. >> some long, weekly winning streaks are likely to be broken today. nine weeks in a row for the dow, which dates back to late october. similar story to the snp unasked tech. nasa tech down 3% this week, apple big culprit there. the ten-year yield, around 4% after jumping up to 4.1 of the jobs report. the awesome services report get back into the freeze. >> let's start things off with that december jobs report. 216,000 jobs