welcome, everyone. alongside -- we are watching the markets very closely as socks are trying to hold on to gains. the job report is coming in stronger than expected. maybe taking a little steam out of that. >> some long, weekly winning streaks are likely to be broken today. nine weeks in a row for the dow, which dates back to late october. similar story to the snp unasked tech. nasa tech down 3% this week, apple big culprit there. the ten-year yield, around 4% after jumping up to 4.1 of the jobs report. the awesome services report get back into the freeze. >> let's start things off with that december jobs report. 216,000 jobs created.

that beat expectations. the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, but behind that number, of potential red flag for the economy. the labor force participation rate saw its biggest one month drop in almost three years, to 62 and a half percent. we need a pool of available workers a shrinking. my next guest says that could put upward pressure on wages and inflation as the fed is contemplating its next move on interest rates. for more, let's bring in cory contained, a senior linkedin economist. cory, welcome, good to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> explain to us the labor force participation rates, how they measure it. it moves a little bit month to month. usually not all that much. this was a fairly significant drop. why? >> so the labor force participation right measures the a number of available workers. so that's going to be employed workers, an unemployed workers. whenever we see people joining the labor, force are dropping out a labor, force that's going to push this number up and down.

what we saw this month in december, there weren't really a lot of workers who were adjoining or dropping out. it was pretty much flat for unemployment. we had gains in employment, we have workers gaining and employments, we also had some workers entering the labor market. we had a decrease in the number of workers who are re-entering the labor market. the labor force participation rate has kind of been holding steady since about august. we occasionally see dips, we occasionally see spikes, but it has been pretty steady. the suggested that we have been forced labor for supply. >> when i see the number 62.5, that is, is that then a percentage of all of the people who are working or seeking work? as a percentage of the total working age population, or what? >> that's. right >> all, right. i knew something for a chance. that's amazing. so does this, in and of itself, suggests that the labor market is getting tighter, or likely to be tighter, which would put pressure on wages as companies

go out and compete for labor, would you put pressure on economy, excuse, me on inflation, which would then put pressure on the fed to keep interest rates higher than they might otherwise? >> that's right. i think with the labor force participation, right is important to zoom up for a second. it's been declining for a while, for about ten, 20 years. so we've just seen a's decline in the labor force participation. >> is that demographics? >> part of that has to do with the fact that we are getting older. the population is aging. aging population is one of the reasons why we keep seeing health care post wrong job reports. we are seeing the population aging, there are going to be long term consequences of that. right, now employers are still dealing with the aftermath of the pandemic, where they didn't have enough workers. this has started to regulate and, normalize a lot more. for employers, they're still

seeing a lot of applications. i blinked, and were seen applications for up about 16% compared to last year. there are still people looking for work. they maybe add employers, they may be unemployed at the moment. >> cory, quick question about wages. this is a big topic of discussion the last hour, or debate. the 80 p reporters running softer than the governments retain with this, of, course comes to burn but the fed needs to respond to higher wage inflation. what would you tell us is going on on that front? >> what we're seeing right now in this december report is that there is a bit of acceleration in wage growth. nominal wage growth. there may not be much there actually. this is average hourly wages. this depends on the composition of workers. when we see lower wage workers, that they're dropping out of the labor force, or losing their positions, that's going to raise the average level of wages. there is this composition effect in the average hourly wages measure that we get from this labor statistics.

i wouldn't say that this one month reads two worrisome. what we would worry about as if we continue to see prints where wage inflation is running above 4%. there are concerns that might be feeding into price inflation. >> right, part of the granularity that i think we're getting from adp is the fact that when people switch jobs now, the increase, the wage hikes are not that pronounced. certainly nothing like we saw a year ago. that was an important source of wage inflation, but it looks like it's going away. >> right. we have seen that wage inflation is up when you change jobs. typically,one way to make gains as by changing jobs. if your current employer doesn't want to pay you, more find a new one. we are seeing folks gearing up this january to look for new positions. january is typically the month where people start their job search. we've asked people, it we've asked a members at linkedin if they are going to look for new position, even less people are quitting. it seems like a lot of folks are considering finding a new

position, a 40% of our members surveyed. that depends what generation you're in as. well younger folks are definitely going -- to >> let's bring this conversation about a third, into home plate, with respect to interest rates. where do you think interest rates will be a year from now? given the trajectory of the economy. there is no reason for the fed to cut rates right now, because they see the economy slowing. it doesn't seem to be demonstrating that. in any consistent way. what do you see writes a year from now? >> so i expect to raise to start to be possible in the summer. a year from, now we might see rates get into three and 4% range. really, what the -- >> the fed funds? >> the federal funds, right that's right. >> that's a pretty dramatic decline from where it is now. five and a quarter, five and a half. >> the fed is going to want to get ahead of the curve. there still a lot of monetary tightening in the pipeline. we have a lot of fixed

mortgages, we have people who get their wages only taken once a year. i only got a wage increase once or twice a year. there is a lot of tightening that the feds already done this in the pipeline. what they're going to want to do next year is get ahead of that curve, and start to introduce the liquidity back into the economy in order to keep things going. >> cory, i think you need to talk to your boss about this wage increases. i would recommend a massive increase for you. >> no job switch. a >> no job switch on. you stay where you are. you come back and join us. tell your boss that the power lunch team says pay more. thank you. >> thank you. >> right after that stronger jobs report came a weaker than expected idea services report. so does it keep the market rates alive or not? we'll ask my next guest, who's one of the few still thinking the feds will cut aggressively next. year drew mattis, she -- drew, it's been a while. good to see, you welcome.

>> good to see, you. kelly >> i'm interested to hear that you're on the board. here what do you foresee? >> we're on the side because we're expecting a recession. where i have some difficulty is where the consensus is right now, the idea of rate cuts, and a soft landing when we have an inflation. that doesn't square the circle. if you were to, i don't know, land on planet earth and look at the united states economy, and see a 3% inflation right, and an unemployment rate of 37, you wouldn't be asking yourselves about coverage. you'd ask yourself when will we start increasing rates? and i think that there is a bit of a disconnect in the consensus between what people are thinking on the right cut side, and what is plausible in terms of what the fed can tolerate with regard to inflation. >> what is your disconnect, it sounds like you're saying, forgot all of. that focus on recession. it's still coming. there's still going to have to respond to that. >> yeah, look, i looked at the unemployment rate.

today the survey response right was miserable. it was 50% of people who didn't bother responding. so in terms of prospects for revision, this is the report that's going to get revised. but if you go into the details a little more, what you see is that something stay the, same which is that about 25% of americans are working in this report. actually, they saw a decline of their weekly wages. either because they're ours scott, or because, you know, within the details of the report, they saw a decline in their average annual earnings. so in terms of, this is not a rising tide. this is, some people got to serve the wave, others aren't. >> i'd like to dive in a little bit more on how you get to a recession scenario. if, as you said a moment ago, you landed on planet earth and you saw u.s. inflation at 3%,

and unemployment at 3.7%. and payroll is gaining. you would say, this is not the time to protectively cut interest rates in anticipation of a slowing economy. you would raise them, because the economy is firm, inflation is still alive, above the fait target, and the job market is stable and solid. so, how do you get from that forecast, or observation of present conditions, to conditions where you say the fed is going to cut six tons in 2024 because they have to do it protectively against a recession. >> i guess i would fall back on the idea that when things fall apart, they fall apart fast. when we have a long term productivity boom, it's a long term productivity boom. it happens gradually overtime. it's a positive effects are felt in the economy over very long period of time.

when the unemployment rate starts moving higher, it tends to move higher quickly. so things fall apart, and they don't gradually erode. i think that as we look ahead, there are signs and weaknesses in the economy, and, really the one kind standout is the employment picture that is actually kind of working against that narrative. if you look at this report, manufacturing is in recess, from the service sector is barely treading water, according to that report. if you look at components of the unemployment report, they are showing increases and unemployment across the number of states. i know that there is been a lot of talk of so-called world from the united states, where the unemployment rate goes up by enough, then it means that the economy is in recession. if you do that on a state by state basis, you've got a number of states that are in recession. you have more states and recession in november than were in recession in october. if you put it out on a, map and look at it, it looks like a disease that spreading across

the united states. it's not, you, know i think that's a lot of people talk about soft landing, we're talking about a recession, we might be talking about the same thing, it's just that i remember that a recession looks like something out of 1990, or 2000. a lot of people don't have experiencing a recession that looks like 2008 or 2020. >> true, california, to your, point has seen its unemployment rate rise by at least 0.8 or higher than that. >> high new jersey as. well >> that's, right new jersey, case in point. so where does that leave the market? to think the markets, i think it matters to the market for going to be in recession or not. >> i think it matters because, i think it matters in terms of where rates go. it's not just a matter of the fun strength. where did tenure rates go, where mortgage rates go? and when should you be thinking about these assets. right, now everyone is thinking that these acids are great. the, know that could change very quickly at the unemployment rate moves, higher in everyone begins to say more

money because it seems like there is a risk of people who might lose their jobs. so when i talk about the economy, you, know rolling over quickly, that is part of the problem. once that dynamic gets, moving it's hard to stop it. and fortunately, for the, fed the way to stop it is to actually lower rates and manage that process. and we think that they'll have to do that, although, you know, to be honest with, you we would've expected there to be more weakness by now. but just because there, isn't because there is no weakness, now it doesn't mean that this is stuff that will point to a strong economy. i think for those who are looking for a soft landing, if you believe in a soft landing, it means you'll have a stronger economy with high inflation. so you have to be thinking and either that there is a recession later to get that federate cut, or that the fed is going to abandon its inflation principles. i don't think that's likely. >> these cuts, a quarter point each time. that's a buck 50. that would take rates down to four percentage or little below. is that what you see at the end of the year? >> that's what we're seen at the end of the. year we're expecting this to

stay where they are today, so it completely flattens back to straight across the board. >> better than an inverted curve, i guess people would say. dramatic, good to see you. >> thank. you >> coming, up a perplexing, perplexing start-up. it eugene a.i. to go after search. it won backing from jeff bezos. details and techcheck, next. plus, is that shut down season again. congress has only nine days to negotiate for spending bills to avoid a partial government shutdown. we will discuss that when power lunch returns.

perplexity an a.i. powered search engine start-up looking to take on google racing 74 million, raised by big names. our reporter spoke to the ceo for today's techcheck. hi. >> hi, so google has been dominant research for decades that few start-ups have been able to write significant capital to compete with them. until now. perplexity, backed by some high profile ambassadors. from jeff bezos. it believes the generative a.i. shift has changed to a paradigm shift that creatures a new paradigm and search. i spoke to ceo earlier this morning about what's changing

this? >> search has been about ten rulings, for the last 20 years. this was always a hack. at the end of the day, people just wanted an answer. the concept of answering and the late 90s, or the internet is exploding, this was -- in fact, many google are used to come from this to join google at the time, because this was a concept that actually were to the technology that existed at that time. so what complexity does as a paradigm search. it's moving search from links dancers. >> he says that it's all about the user interface. google was born on the internet era, and now, navigated very. well it's bread and butter search has not transitioned quick enough to the generative a.i.. serena bass says that there are experiments thus far, from google that, is they are clutter. they're filled with i it's. there's too much cognitive overload for users.

he is creating a product and perplexity that is clean, minimal, simple. it relies on a number of large language models, from gpt-4 to -- to google's gemini and beyond. guys, perplexity, and may represent the next act for generative a.i. a. large last, year it was all about enabling the models. chips in cloud computing. serena bass and many others in the silicon valley believe that we will see the rise of consumer applications. make a caps like google, they may not be the winners this time. >> how much, you often hear in situations like this, that used to be the jack will, trouble in that was that if you're not number one or number two in the business, you might as well get out of the business. you hear about for mover advantage, that first mover advantage, right, now would seem to reside elsewhere. >> right. if you think about the advantage, in the generative a.i. age being data, the first party data in particular, no

one has more than google. that is why i asked him, are they're going to be one winners of two winners in the space, just like a google has dominated the market share? he says, not necessarily. he thinks that there is going to be more. he thinks that google is still going to be valuable with i party data, which powers a lot of the large language models out there. i also think that they're going to make a big bet on cloud to offset what may be happening. this is really speaking to wall street figures about google's position. since the generative a.i. hype cycle began. will it displace search. will someone like a perplexity come and do it better? maybe a better application built in the generative a.i. era? or can google move fast? no one denies that google has developed the foundational technology that is not necessarily behind. can they create a product that users really want to use? we know that open a.i. and chatgpt was able to front run them on that front. >> i just try to, doubt had a good answer for how long for a sausage casserole.

gave a little links up top. it got to basically write. i wouldn't say is majorly differentiated from the others, still makes you go through the rigmarole, which early google didn't make you do. >> it's not that differentiated. i asked about the commodities size a shun of these large language models. he says that this year, it's going to be about the consumer applications. sequoia published apiece, the pc from located in the bay area says that you are either going to be close to the cheapie use that compute power, or the consumer. he believes that many others believe that there will be companies get closer to the consumer this, year whereas last year was all about that she pts. >> thank you. we appreciate it. i'm getting hungry. dirigibles. up further, had years in the making, the united launch alliances new heavy lift rocket is set to lift off for the first time early monday morning. this mission is to send a commercial lender to the surface of the moon and what would be a historic firsts if all goes according to plan. maybe a small step for man, but

potentially big one for investors. we'll explain, next. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. welcome back to power lunch.

let's get out to chicago for a look at how this morning's data is playing out in the bond market. work centrally with the latest. rick? >> hi. yes. what a wild day. if you looked at some of the key parts of this morning's job report, what jumped out at me was 4.1. let's take a look at a ten-year chart of year over year average hourly earnings. the fact that it was 3.1 to 3.5 pre-covid, you can see on the left side, it just shows us that it has been buoyant, it wants to go a little higher. participation moving down to 62.5, that's entering the chart of twos. it is almost as though they did a round trip. they are right around what, 4:38? for 39? right around that number. it goes up, goes back down. we're basically seen for 39 and

4:10 on the extremes. here's the thing, look at how much deeper this curve as. look at these 2:10 spread covering the minus 35. this is the big point. this is 2024. there are treasure rates to be a different path than what many are thinking, chart rates. let's go talk to a traitor. it looks like we have big data today. what did you think of today's job numbers? >> i guess it's supposed to be encouraging. the market is up a bit. they like it. don't know what this is going to lead to as far as the rate cuts. it's not a horrible jobs report. you would think we might start getting some cuts here. >> when it comes to rate, cuts at the end of last, year we saw the equity markets propelled because everyone there are rate cuts. they may be closer to three, and it's an election year, what do you think? >> here is my concern with us. once they start cutting, even just once or twice, a little,

bit inflation starts picking up. it could really show that they don't have an under control. >> that's a good point. you know, there's a lesson to be learned here. we had inflation data out of europe this week. they were expecting 3.9 in germany. it comes a 3.8. all the major publications were like, great news, great news. the previous month is 2.3. >> that's not good. they wanted at around 2%, three point, that's not a good number. they're telling us it's a good number, it's not that great of a number. >> the market is telling us is not a good, number they closed up 25 basis points this week. they closed up 14. right, now twos are up 12, our towns are up 14 basis points on the week. i like your arguments. the fed doesn't, he's the market is going to expect more. >> but they start easing this, it might show, while, they don't have this under control. >> the whole notion of this inflation going to be linear or not. this is going to come down in an aggressive fashion. maybe it will. i don't see that happening in the uk, i don't see it happening in europe. >> neither do. i we already have 34 trillion

in debt this past week. >> how many places did you hear about that? >> you have to take, you have to dig deep. >> you don't have to jake so far. i'll tell you who is going to tell, you all about, that every minute. ten year, 20 year, 30 year yields. >> and work santelli. those with the people that you're going to get it from tyler, back to you. we are going to hear from that in centrality, thank you very much. >> let's get the shares of apple. they've been lower today. steve? >> a. kelly, this comes from a new york times headline that says that the doj is moving closer to wrapping up its antitrust investigation into apple. we know this has been going on for a long time. doj, like so many other regulatory bodies around the world really, looking at apple's control over the app store and how that impacts the fees that the charges for third-party apps. i will note, however kelly, the story does not say when this

lawsuit is finally going to drop. a lot of people in fact expected it to happen last year, still did not happen, but we know jonathan kanter, the anti trust chief official over at the doj, is one of the key players. looking into apple over all of these issues around the app store, around the wallet, and things like that. not to mention the epic games case. fortnite maker, that lawsuit between the two countries companies still going on, so going to court. we expected here between the supreme court pretty soon whether we'll take up that case but also plays into this whole theme around apple and it's up for dominance as well, kelly. >> we have just been talking about the shares, steve. they're down five and a half percent to start the year. mikey cap again almost being surpassed by microsoft, which is in the green today. the reaction by investors here suggests what? even though this was telegraphed, they don't seem pleased about. it >>, yeah yeah. that was really curious. i just read through the new york times story, and didn't learn much knew that hasn't been reported before that we haven't reported on this

network before about what is being looked at into apple. again, these are all of the same issues that have been on the table for many years now going back to 2018, 2019. but, again they did say that there is a meeting between apple in the doj as recently as last month, and so that is something new. also, the story is saying that there hasn't been a so-called final meeting between apple in the department justice were basically the regulatory agencies come to the company they are about to sue for antitrust and see if they can come to some sort of last-minute agreement or read them the last rites before the lawsuit drops. that hasn't happened yet. when we read about that, though kelly, they say this lawsuit is imminent, and then of course app will go to trial against the doj in the antitrust trial just like google did, and we're waiting for that verdict as well pretty soon. >> great analysis. the shares early down half a percent, now and they have done socks and in russia last hour just told us that they should consider shortening, it it's

been a rough start for them. thank you for being that news to, us we appreciate. it steve kovach. >> let's go to bertha combs now for cnbc news update. >> i bertha. >> hi tyler. two headlines of the new york attorney general today. first, down trump's civil trial could cause $370 million. the a.g. laetitia james argue today that he should pay that price in penalties for decades of financial fraud. the filing came out less than a week when closing arguments are expected to be given that fraud trial. the former president has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. just days before the york several trial involving the ceo of the national rifle association it set to begin, chief wayne lapierre announced that he is resigning. new york attorney general letitia james was seeking his ouster in the trial as well as financial penalties for alleged

corruption. lapierre, who 74, cited his health as the reason for stepping down. and you won't see any ads from jeep, chrysler, or ram trucks during this year's super bowl broadcast. parent company stellantis said today that they won't take out any sports, any spots on the big game as it focuses on cutting costs. the automaker has also pulled out of several auto shows as it contends with falling sales. tyler? back to you. >> bertha, thank you very much. bertha comes. after the break, the national debt of united states hitting a record 34 trillion dollars. we will talk about that and its impact when we return.

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get over here kids. stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. time for today's lesson. wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they figured out a way to keep the internet on. yeah! -nature finds a way. [ grunt ] stay connected when the power goes out, with storm ready wifi from xfinity. welcome back to power and see migration in theaters now. lunch. another government shutdown could be looming in just two weeks, although we should be used to it by now, but the total u.s. that fasting 34 trillion u.s. dollars, a lot of people are hoping for a more permanent solution this time around.

more on that in a moment, but first let's bring in emily wilkins to the stand right now, and emily, the border standoff seems to be playing a big role this time. >> the border standoff is playing a big role, the supplemental is playing a big role, and also playing a big role is that speaker mike johnson has made it clear that this is really the last time he wants to be dealing with this. the other wants to get it done, part of it on january 19th, part of it on february 2nd, and that doesn't happen, he's going to continue the spending levels. so look, congress has spent months working at the details of funding the government, but they still do not have an agreement on the overall amounts that they want to spend next year, and that is really critical, it is holding things up. tennessee republican chuck placement, top house appropriator, told me that the longer it takes to get that overall spending number the better is going to be to prevent a partial shutdown in two weeks. >> once we get the top line number in the allocations, then it is going to be exceedingly difficult, not impossible, but

difficult to get a deal done by january 19th. however, if we can get a top line number within a day or two, i think it is entirely possible that we could put something together. >> if they cannot reach an agreement soon, 20% of government funding well laps on january 19th. this includes funding covering the departments of agriculture, energy, veterans affairs, and transportation, plus military to traction, fda, housing and urban development. a lot of stuff. this could really mean that fewer air traffic controllers will be at airports, it means reduced food inspections in the liaison grants for farmers, as well as a number of other impacts across the government. if lawmakers cannot come to an agreement, and if they keep funding the government at current spending levels, they will also trigger a 1% cut across the board. that translates to billions of dollars less with the feds agencies being hit particularly hard. when i was talking with the congressman yesterday, he said that the shutdown is the worst

option, the second worst option is that 1% cut. absolutely no one was that to happen, but to do, that they're going to have to actually find a way to get these bills passed. >> emily, thank you very much. emily wilkins washington for us. setting up our next conversation as a shutdown looms, and the debt continues to bloom, and next guest says that the longer term problem is that our two political parties are so far apart in seemingly unwilling to fix the problem. let's bring in air incline, senior fellow with a left leaning, i'm obligated to say, brookings institution. aaron, good to see you there. >> good afternoon. >> i'm glad you're with us. >> let me try to untangle this a little bit. emily talked about this being, we don't get an agreement on top line for spinning for next year, but as i understand, it this is really spinning for this year. we're talking about fiscal 24, right? >> yeah, no. the government runs on october one basis, and congress has kicked the can down the road so far that we're talking about

january 19th or february 1st for the funding levels for this fiscal year, which basically runs through the september. so it is about the amount of money that is going to be spent into the economy this year and about whether or not the government is going to have a partial shutdown. >> and how much of this dispute among the many disputes that seem to afflict washington, how much of this dispute is tied up with the question of military funding to ukraine and israel on the one hand and border security funding on the other. or is that sort of a separate issue? >> so it has been a bit of a separate issue in terms of the white house's approach to ending a supplemental. so what we're talking about is the regular money that funds the government for the entire year. the white house proposed was extra money known as a supplemental, which happens often to focus on ukraine and israel and willing to make some border security adjustments and

permanent law as well as more money to the border to get that through. so these are two separate tracks that it become interwoven as at the political traffic backs up. >> do you see a way, let's talk about the broader question which is the longer term debt situation the united states is in. that matter of overall funding for fiscal 2024 as a part from the supplemental. do you see a way forward or are these parties so locked into their positions that shut down is almost inevitable? >> there is a way forward, but for that way forward, you have to have a negotiation, and a negotiation requires identifying the other side. is the other side house republicans? is the other side senate republicans? what is it that the other side once? do they want cuts to discretionary funding, do they want border security and immigration? you have to have a negotiation. right, now it's difficult to know within the republican party who you are negotiating

with. look, this top line number that the congress is referencing before have been agreed to speaker mccarthy. now there is no speaker mccarthy, and we are going backwards in the negotiation as the house republicans change their leadership. >> i still wonder, erin, if we don't have a reckoning going, because i don't get too technical, but now that interest costs are basically going to be half the deficit for the foreseeable future and the more that we run these deficits, the more we add to the debt, which means that we will have perpetually high interest costs for the foreseeable future, how do we get out of that situation? >> so the longer term political reckoning that has to come as it relates to spending and revenue is nowhere on the agenda. that is not a 2024 issue. that is going to require i think a pretty structural realignment of the political parties. they used to be consensus in washington when i first started in the senate, with only called pay, go pay as you go in the

clinton era where we built up surpluses, republicans and democrats, president bush the first through clinton, kind of agreed that you had to pay for what you spent, and since then, it is -- the republicans are in control, a tax cut frenzy with voodoo economics and these tax cuts pay for themselves, which they never do, digging a very very large hole, and then a series of major calamities that have required large amounts of money like covid, like the 08 financial crisis. and we are seeing things on the defense side. and so until there is a real change in parties and the voter priorities for a event that pushes that direction, the long term issues are just off the table right now. >> some people say that's why the think longer term bond yields will remain higher for the time being. erin, thank you for your time, we appreciate. it >> thank you for having me. >> aaron klein. still ahead, ready for takeoff, a powerful new rocket preparing for its first ever flight with

major vocations for the whole space industry. we will get the key details when we return. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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a powerful new rocket is preparing for its first flight and it could significantly impact the space industry. morgan brennan is here to explain, and this is on monday? >> this is on monday at 2:18 am eastern, and i will be down on this floor to space coast. this is a major moment. this is a decade and a billion dollars in the making. the native flight of the vulcan center rockets -- left of his scheduled early lift -- monday morning. the mission, launching the start-up astro biontech lunar lander -- in what would become, if all goes according to plan, over the next couple of weeks, the first time ever a privately owned spacecraft has landed on

the lunar surface. vulcan is you l.a.'s new heavy lift rocket, it will replace the legacy vehicles powered by russian engines. falcons engines are built by blue origin, it is a crucial moment for the boeing lockheed martin joined venture. this is the first original rocket that's been developed by you l.a.. customers include the u.s. government and amazon, and it comes as the company is feeling prospective takeover offers. it also comes as the launch landscape has dramatically shifted in the last few years. spacex launched 96 successful missions last year, which was, by the way, an industry record. ula, as it transitions to vulcan, just three. more competition is coming, including spacex star ship, that's under development. blue origin's new glenn, under development. nasa's sls, which is used primarily and exclusively for artemis moon missions, and a number of less powerful rockets from rocket lab, relativity space, and others.

the question is, is there room for everyone? it remains to be seen but as ula ceo troy bernal and others have told me, with thousands of sad lace and spacecraft needing to be launched over the next few years, a capacity crunch could be coming. we may have more need than we have rockets supplied to get everything to space. >> what is this vessel going to carry to the moon. it's not coming back, is it? >> no, it's not coming -- >> what's it going to leave there? >> the astro bionic lunar lander? it's got payload's for seven different countries. it's going to be doing scientific research -- >> with amazon boxes on it? >> it has commercial pilots including, and this has been more controversial for a variety of reasons, but the remains of some star trek luminaries on board. it's not going to attempt to land on the moon until later in february, to time it with the

sunrise on the moon, which is a very different cycle than the one we see on a daily basis here on planet earth. it will have ten days to carry out all of these missions, collect all the data, beam it back to earth, and everything basically shuts down when the sun sets again. >> it's going to orbit the moon for a few days? >> it's going to orbit the moon for a few weeks, then attempt this landing. by the way, it's not the only commercial lunar lander that's attempting to do this. we actually have a bit of a competition there as well. intuitively xin's, which is publicly traded, the very small cap at this point, is also preparing to launch -- which one is going to land first? if in fact both of them land and land successfully. >> is nasa still working on everything and this front or is it all private sector? >> it is public private partnerships with nasa under a nasa program that basically prepares the lunar surface for -- >> interesting. >> it's happening! to the moon! >> monday, 2:18, i will be

thinking of you. shares of peloton searching for a second straight day, getting a boost from its new partnership with tiktok. coming, up we will trade it in three stop lunch. we will be right back. we will be right back. i'm not good being retired. i'm a pain in the neck. i like to be able to have a purpose. about three or four years ago, i wasn't feeling as if i was as sharp as i used to be. i saw the prevagen commercials. after a short amount of time taking prevagen, i started noticing a difference-- that i'm remembering this, i'm remembering that. i stopped taking prevagen and i found myself slacking back so i jumped right back on it. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. (vo) sail through the heart of historic cities and unforgettable scenery with viking. unpack once, and get closer to iconic landmarks, local life, and cultural treasures. because when you experience europe on a viking longship, you'll spend less time getting there and more time being there.

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lunch. we are treating big moves as we close out the first trading week of this new year. it's been a little bumpy with our -- chief market and it just with b riley wealth management. the year may change, but art hogan never does. first up, microsoft, the tech giant, closer to overtaking apple as the most valuable u.s. company. your trade on microsoft, mr. hogan? >> it's an easy call. they've had a great 2023, but if you look at 22 and 23 combine, it's only up 8.5%. evaluation looks pretty attractive here at about 35 times. it pays a nice little dividend and it's gonna pile of cash. more importantly, it is one of the a.i. darlings. it's already monetizing it and that's the most important part. 2024 will be how do you monetize artificial intelligence. they got a head start. they have the first move advantage. one of the last segments -- i think microsoft is a buy here. it's on our focused list.

we like this a lot. >> what about jpmorgan? they report next week. they hit a 52 week high again today. they were up 27% this year. are you sticking with this team of the juggernauts? >> best in the business when you think about the big banks. the best biology. that's why it has the premium valuation trending at about 11 times, 1.6 times on the tangible -- we think they've done a great job of directing this bank to being in the best place it can be. what you don't want to do is -- not as nervous about this one, i think this is definitely a buy. certainly, you may want to wait until their report, but i would tell you that before the rest of this year, -- is going to get a lot of love. if you want to have -- jpmorgan is a great way to do it. this is one of the names on our focus list, we are two for one today. >> let's move on to peloton, searching for a second straight day on its tiktok partnership. is the worst over for peloton?

frankly, i rode my peloton last night, i saw something very interesting to me, and that was logos for lululemon on all the bikes, which tells me that they are getting out of their own apparel business and maybe partnering up with lululemon, which makes sense. >> it does make sense. they tried to roll out their brand, didn't do well. i think, to your point, about the worst being over, certainly. it's going back to $4? likely not, they've stemmed a lot of the bleeding. the problem is, it's one of those companies where you can love the product but not like to stop. what do you say? that negative earnings, they haven't been able to post positive earnings since they've been public. they have a pile of debt, and they've got a niche market. so to your point, this might make a very attractive acquisition for a company that's in the apparel business or someone that's looking to add fitness to their offering stack, but i certainly think that as a stand-alone company, we are probably seeing, as much as they will do in the short term, the short term horizon doesn't look like it has a lot

of positive net. >> there you go. thank you, art. good to see you! >> happy new year. >> we will power through as many more headlines as we can in closing time, next. ♪ ♪ ♪ oh no, a rash. maybe it'll go away. awww, how am i going to find a doctor i'll actually like? is that a qr code? dr. stafford makes you feel at ease. thanks rash! you've got more options than you know. book now.

a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently. welcome back. just 90 seconds left for us. several more stories you need to know. we will narrow down to two. starting with costco, who

shares are higher after they reported over 26 billion dollars in sales last month. a 9.9% increase from the year prior. impressive! lead mostly by e-commerce demand, as well. it says comp sales altogether 3% boost on an additional having day last month, which makes the timing on new year's day which fell on monday, a high contributor. >> i contributed. i found some great bargaining on my sons for clothing there. i never bought close. they're >> our kids that's, all they wear! >> is that right? wow. >> great bargains! >> i got some seasonal candles. >> good me, good steaks there. you will ball releasing its annual growth index. it measures the largest number of one-way movers by state. the number one growth state in 2023? texas, i think it's the sixth time in the last two years. running out the top ten florida, north and south carolina, ten and, the idaho, washington, arizona, colorado, in my home state, virginia. california saw the most net

losses of one-way movers, thanks in part to the rising cost of living. their most dates have lower no state income tax. by the way, texas has the most fortune 500 headquarters of any state. >> good job texas. >> thank you for watching power lunch. >> the closing bell starts right now. thank you so much, for watching closing bell on this friday. i'm scott wagner here live on the new york stock exchange. the state of stocks given the rocket out of this new year. we are going to ask our experts where things could go in the weeks ahead, including tom ali, he is coming up in just a few minutes. in the meantime, your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation looks like that. it has been a pretty volatile day, following a stronger than expected jobs report than weaker i am services reading. we are in the red, modestly so, across the board. let's zero in on tech for a moment. the nasdaq is down 3% this week. boy, apple?