cpi number? nasdaq down 31 or so. the last mile might be difficult. maybe that's what's indicating. i guess we check out where bitcoin is going to close out at least this session. it trades all the time, though, right? there it is. when it was all said and done today, it's at $4,700,355. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," aii'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures are lower as investors take stock of cpi. bit hot on headline, although the first three handle on annual core in almost three years. ten-year does touch 4.05%. our road map begins with inflation picking up in december, what that means for the fed and rate policy ahead. bitcoin rallying almost 8% this week, best week since early december as those etfs begin

trading today. and hertz trimming its ev fleet, citing some weak demand, high damage cost. steven scherr is going to join us exclusively. cpi, a little hot. more than half is shelter. >> i'm not sure -- remember, shelter is not really clear to me since we know rentals are coming on the market because you couldn't build during covid. the ones that you started during covid are historically right about now, so that may be the peak. and that's very, very positive. i know that we can all focus on used cars not being as lower, but we've got steve scherr from hertz. who knows about the price of used cars better than the ceo of hertz? >> airfare up month on month, although down year on year. >> i think the travel is still allowing airlines to charge more. i also think that one of the reasons why the justice department tries to block this

merger is because i'm not saying there's collusion, but there's a lot of companies that seem to have the same prices. >> so, going into this print then, a lot of the desk commentary this morning was mag sevens back at all-time highs. stone's throw from indexes hitting all-time highs. it would take a lot for this to really derail the fed pivot thread, although does it affect march odds? what do you think? >> i think that march is still a push. i know people want very much to game this. i think what they should be gaming is the fact that every firm has come out, whether it be because of the jpmorgan health care conference or ces, with something positive to say about nvidia. today about microsoft. by the way, netflix, we have something positive about. it's very difficult to derail the positive analyst comments, which are uniformly saying that the numbers will be better than expected. >> i think it was b of a's note today said the stuff that's -- the stuff that "everyone owns" is what's moving. >> what's kind of amazing, and

i'm glad you mentioned that, is because typically, when everyone owns something, there could be a kaching, kaching. it hasn't happened. i know we're going to get to bitcoin, but if you remember gold before they had the gold etf, it ran up in anticipation, and that was the peak. this is a run-up in anticipation and maybe the people who bought bitcoin are actually going to make money. >> yeah. we're going to get to bitcoin in a second. i did notice last night you said maybe this isn't a sell on the news. >> bitcoin is a strange animal. i remember trying to buy bitcoin when i had -- for my jpmorgan account, and i got to speak to the highest people, and thery said, why don't you just take your money and put it in fidelity. i want to know how the big guns are going to deal with it. >> we'll get to that in a second. just to wrap up the most important print of the week, cpi. you don't seem terribly thrown by it, although got this oil tanker hijacked off the coast of

oman. >> oil seemed to have found a floor at $70. the reason i would say i'm not that fazed by it is because i'm not in the camp that says they have to do anything in march. jay powell has said over and over again the biggest policymaking to do is flip-flop, so to cut and then realize they're not done. since jay has said that, there are a lot of people that jay -- i'm calling him jay. i know jay powell for 30 years, suddenly he's chairman powell? we have to do that. gary cohn is a friend of mine. he's the chief economic advisor. let's just say that powell has said, look, we're data dependent, but we're not going to move too fast, and if he's data dependent, then you don't move too fast, because we did not see the decline that a lot of people like. you would like to look through this and say what i said about rent, but they don't. interest rates went up a tad. i think what kb homes says is more important, although

remember homes are not in cpi. that was taken out in the early '80s because people wanted to make the cpi look a little cooler. kb homes was saying, look, home prices dipped, but then they're going to come back. and the kb homes was very convoluted because they're now talking about 28 days of selling, which were very strong. and there are people who find fault with kb homes after they had one of the biggest blowouts i've seen. >> yeah, kb there, selling prices were lower. got a downgrade over at seaport and a couple things working on housing today after a pretty good couple days. >> they bought back a huge amount. i remember when home builders were always in trouble after it's been good. this is another one of those counterintuitive moments. we saw the toll brothers bought back a gigantic amount of stock, and then we saw lennar boost the dividend and announce a $5 billion buyback. maybe kb homes isn't aggressive enough but they bought back 11% of the company. >> we'll keep our eye on the fallout from cpi and the ten-year at 4.06%.

let's get to bitcoin, as jim said, the s.e.c. is making it official. regulator approves spot bitcoin etfs, including some which are s slated to begin trading today. it gives investors access to the largest cryptocurrency. the chair of the s.e.c., gary gensler, did say in a statement that the decision is neither an approval nor an endorsement of bitcoin itself. >> look, i think that gary -- another guy i knew -- >> you're on a first-name basis with everybody. >> chairman gensler, i think, wanted everything to have a little better decorum. i don't think he liked the way it was just a train coming in, and it couldn't be stopped. but there's just such broad support for it that even though he felt that there were particular decisions which said these are securities, he was over at -- he was overridden by events. even the cft in the end was not

against this. there was a belief that this would be done offshore if not here. in the end, i'm saying it's a win, because the people want it. i mean, i've got, you know, access to more retail investors than most people because i speak to them every day. >> yeah. >> everyone wanted this, because people didn't want to be in situation where they had their money in some bank that just disappeared overnight. >> so, here's a 22-month high on the coin itself. it needs to be held, right >> yes. >> so, cathie wood's on "squawk" a few moments ago saying her base case for 2030 is 600,000 and bull case is $1.5 million. >> i wish i could get away with saying that stuff. i was investigated on air because i said google was too low, and they called me in and said, what are you kidding? they did a ten for one split. i think you can see people are promotional, but i would say this. there is on online love affair

that flew in the face of what jamie dimon said, who is the most respected banker in america, and what the late charlie munger said. the opponents of this, i think, are now being viewed as if you haddy fuddy-duddies. the customer is right, jamie dimon. one of my moments in discussion with jpmorgan is, i've been with you for 30 years. the customer is right. they were, like, then, take your business elsewhere. the customer is so right, go to fidelity. >> so, your point is the market has -- is speaking. >> right. i mean, you want to override events? fine. you want to be a luddite? you want to go smash the loom? be my guest. let's accept the loom. >> are you going to tell subscribers and your retail followers to make this a piece? >> we have -- we do have an annual meeting coming up, and i'm going to tell people if they want to, here's the best way. and i'm not going to -- certainly not fight it.

i'm not going to do what gensler said. i endorse the idea that there's this, because those who had their money in the national bank of sam bankman-fried are kind of like jesse james robbed them. there's no jesse james when it comes to the etf. >> yes. we mentioned cathie wood on "squawk" talking about some very long-term price targets for ark, at least. here's what she said. >> we believe that bitcoin is a public good. what we have here, we believe, is a financial super highway. it is the layer of the internet that developers did not build in, in the early '90s, because no one ever foresaw commerce or financial services. a public good. and so, we're not looking to maximize profits here. >> well, that's the idea of currency and the hov lane. let me tell you what i think the

s.e.c. really didn't like. if you look, we have all these other coins, and they were convinced that a lot of these coins are just phony and based on nothing, but now it's just game on for everything. you notice that robinhood is kind of -- has become the bank of choice for a lot of the cryptos, which the s.e.c. will tell you are based on nothing, and i think people are fine with bitcoin. i think they're fine with ethereum. when you start going down the chain to the belichick coin that will be probably be issued at noon today, i just say, listen, let's be a little more circumspect. >> right. are you prepared for or willing to watch the market get enthusiastic about at least this bucket? >> it matters tremendously. i think there are very few sellers of anything right now. it's almost as if everyone sold nvidia and they already sold microsoft, and the institutions, i think they have to catch up and own this, because if you're jpmorgan, you're not telling people to go to fidelity anymore. look, i want to see what larry fink has to say about it from

blackrock, because larry is of the people. i mean, larry is not going to stand in the way. customer's right, by the way, with blackrock. novel in our industry. the customer is right. larry fink has pioneered that. i know that sounds almost facetious, but a lot of these institutions would not -- this is a third rail that is no longer a third rail. >> we're going to hear from them tomorrow. that's going to be a key question on the blackrock side. when we come back, big news in evs. hertz disclosing plans to sell about a third of its global ev fleet. we're going to talk the steve scherr. so much more to get to, including boeing, more news regarding tech layoffs, netflix, as jim mentioned, occi, and a lot more. futures trying to recover from the worst of the session. you always got your mind on the green. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently.

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we've got some pretty big news from the major rental car company, hertz. they're announcing it will cut one-third of its electric vehicle fleet over the year. ceo steven scherr joins us now to discuss the company's decision. welcome to "squawk on the street." >> thank you, jim. good to be here. good to see you. >> steve, i know you as one thing and one thing only, the man who just knows to tell the truth and nothing but the truth from the days that you were at goldman. this seems like a very positive for hertz, the numbers, but definitely an asterisk for the adoption of evs in this country. >> well, i think, look, we took

a bold move and are making a strategic adjustment to our fleet to take 20,000 electric vehicles out of the fleet. it's really to respond to the reality, which is we're trying to bring supply in line with demand, and we're addressing a cost issue that happens to be related to the evs in the context of damage and damage costs. that's what it is. but in the end, this is about the numbers. it's about the financial performance and the operational -- >> and depreciation. >> and depreciation, but equally the operational integrity of the business, and so we'll put ebitda on in the next two years that will equal what the charge was and increase cash flow by about 250 to $300 million, so this is about -- it's not about the broader issue of evs for the company. it's about financial performance and operational integrity and adjusting ourselves in the way in which i think the business needs to be run. >> i think that one of the things that you were spot on was that, look, tesla's the largest in the country, and you wanted your fleet to reflect tesla.

at the same time, unlike what cathie wood said earlier, you were explaining that there is depreciation. these do not go up in value after you buy them. >> no, i mean, look, the reality here is that we're experiencing the consequence of a material price decline in teslas but in evs more generally. so, at the beginning of this year, when tesla took down the price of their cars, residual price falls, depreciation goes up. that's obviously a cost to the business. we need to face that reality. tesla did what they did for reasons that are presumably good for their company. but we just need to adjust to the reality of what the cost input is of this car, and so we've made this move to really put ourselves back, you know, on track. it's interesting to note, jim, that demand for our product is real and is sustaining. you know, what we put in our ak as an indication of what happened in the fourth quarter, demand was there. revenue was in line with what

expectations were on a seasonal basis. the issue i'm addressing is one of our cost base and the influence that evs have had on that cost. and there are certain circumstances, like price decline, like residual decline, and depreciation, that's out of our control, but you need to react to it, and we're reacting to it. >> that's interesting. it's different from demand or behavioral friction when someone comes to the counter. because originally, the case -- the thinking was, this will be a nice way for people to experiment. did that happen? >> it did happen, and it is happening. it's just not happening at a level of demand to justifies us maintaining a fleet of this size at this moment in time. you know, carl, the one thing i would say is that at some point, the reality of evs and teslas being the best-selling car will at some point render them the best rental car. it's not yet. me may have been ahead of ourselves in the context of how quickly that will happen, but it will happen. in the end, we're in the

business of giving consumers choice. we're including, in that choice, a electric vehicles, and there is a significant component of our customer set that are still pace us a premium for these. it's just not -- it's not at the level of demand that we anticipated, and i think a smart company is one that's agile, makes an adjustment, takes away the distraction, fractional and operational, and moves on. >> i do think, apropos of what carl's saying, there must be something wrong with evs in the sense that maybe they're hard to repair. maybe people don't necessarily know how to drive them. maybe there are accidents because people -- or they wreck the cars because they don't know how to do it. >> well, look, we do two things when we rent you a car. a, we make sure you can pay for it, and b, we presume you can drive it. and we ask for your license on the latter. the reality on evs is that there are millions of americans, in fact, millions of consumers around the world, who are knowledgeable, experienced in evs, and they ride them well.

there are those that experiment, and their knowledge of how to drive this car, which is a little different than a combustion engine car, may be part of the issue. i would point out that our joint venture and the demand we have with uber is proving very successful and has grown, as i talked about on our third quarter call, by as much as 50%. and they are taking up even part, ev and i.c.e. vehicle. and when we talk about how much time this strategy will take to play out, bear in mind, a lot of cities in this country are going to require rideshare companies like uber and lyft to be all-electric by 2030. so, we may be a little early, but the early growth with them is working well, and we will have ample supply to continue to feed that business. >> there is some misinterpretation, maybe because people are not as good about what depreciation means as you are. this, to me, is something, when i remember that you had a problem with this last quarter, you're dealing with a -- the problem.

cash flow is going to go up, not down. >> that's right. >> this is going to influence the stock positively, not negatively. >> well, i would hope so, but as you and i have talked about many times, it's not for me to predict where the stock is going to go. what i want to do is produce financial results for our shareholders that are worthy of a higher valuation than where the company is, and i think addressing the cost element in the context of a healthy demand layer is what we're doing. it's what this adjustment in fleet is about. and i think it will prove to be a net positive for the company as we go forward. >> can i get you just a little more broadly? we just got cpi. we were talking about airfares. how is overall demand holding up? is corporate continuing its comeback or not? >> we continue to see demand rather strong. we saw through the holiday. we're seeing it in the opening of january. and it's cracross the board. it's in leisure. it remains in corporate. don't forget we have a big inbound business, so this is where europeans, asians, south americans travel to the u.s. and rent from us.

the airlines are continuing to show strong, particularly those with international routes, and again, we're growing up different business lines in the context of rideshare, which will continue to grow as we feed that business. >> i have to believe, stephen, that one of the things people don't get about business is if you're working from home, and you want to go see a client, the best way to do it is to rent a car. we don't want a situation where you don't ever go see clients again just because you're working from home. >> no, i mean, look, the reality of the business world is one in which there's no substitute for personal interaction. and we're seeing that gradually come back in the context of business travel. bear in mind, on the rental car side, you know, we are the tail on this, meaning, the decision to go on a business trip or take your family on a vacation is not determined on whether the rental car is $5 higher or lower. it's determined largely on the airfare and the hotel. and so, you know, we've seen a relatively stable price

environment, a little softer relative to where it was in covid, but sustainable and well above pre-covid levels, and there's no particular incentive to see price soften across the industry, because it doesn't drive demand to the industry writ large. and market share has been relatively stable among the majors in rental car for the last year or more. >> look, i want to thank you for coming in and telling it straight. this was a bold move to try to have the fleet be like here to the country. at the same time, not everyone's ready, and they still like internal combustion engines. >> that's true, but inasmuch as our fleet has been 10% ev, it's 90% combustion engine cars. >> there you go. stephen scherr, ceo of hertz. it is my job to look at stocks. i wanted you to do this. i didn't want you to have a problem with depreciation. >> terrific. >> good to see you. when we come back, we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell, get to some

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yup, that's how you business differently. take a look at nasdaq winners this morning. you'll see netflix at the top. 23 million subs, maus in the ad tier. latest number we got on that. we'll talk about what that means for streaming. nvidia there as well, all-time high, along with the mag seven as a subset of the market. we'll get the opening bell in a couple of minutes, and don't forget, you can catch us any meanywhere, just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. let's get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell. >> sometimes a piece of research catches your eye, and it says, focus on this.

the dog days are over, saying that it is time to buy chewy. that's hold to buy, in part because it looks like they're finally getting back on track in growth, but also because the stock's just gotten too cheap. even though amazon has been gaining shares. this stock was at $118 at the end of '21 when the humanization of pets thesis was at its highest. i like the call. i had management on, and they're doing a lot more things. they're doing insurance, and they also have ads, and ads, just like netflix, people don't mind to see ads, and it certainly boosts the valuation, so i like this call of chewy. >> there's an interesting call this morning out of citi about the low-end consumer, watching delinquencies, excess savings having eroded quite a bit. is chewy highly exposed? >> i think, yes, to the extent that amazon is a tradedown from chewy. chewy has the more expensive things involving a pet. if the company's stock hadn't dropped to this level, i would

be a little more, i would say, circumspect, but at this level, ch chewy is good. >> let's get the bell at the cnbc realtime exchange. at the big board, 30th anniversary. at the nasdaq, it is blackrock celebrating the first day of the bitcoin etf, and we'll talk with their cio in the next hour ahead of earnings tomorrow, jim. >> i think, as like many people, i've got exposure to blackrock, and blackrock, i wanted them because they're -- one day, i think, will make it so that individuals can be more aligned with what we think are the causes. right now, it's institution. but i feel good. if larry fink thinks it's okay, he knows more about what's an asset than even gary gensler, and so i'm good with it if he's good with that. >> we're going to be all over the financials for the next 24 hours. citi is a story today because of the warnings about charges,

currency exposure in argentina, russia. >> i'm so glad you brought that up because there's been this great disparity between the tangible book value of citi -- >> i loved your tweet this morning. >> jpmorgan sells at a big premium. not so much bank of america, not so much wells fargo. and then you've got citi, which is this oddity. what are they really worth? i mean, if you were to close it, return all the money. this is the type of thing i worry about. i'm okay with procter & gamble saying they have exposure to argentina. good, they're probably in there trying to sell tide. i don't want my bank having exposure to countries where -- that are unstable. they could benefit. they reco they should be doing something with mexico because the peso has been up lately. but no, this is the kind of thing i'm worried about. what does city really have that's going wrong? and i thought they got out of a lot of these markets, but they'll defend themselves well. tell me how -- i see a disparity of book, and i hope they don't mind this, but only cal fed and

glen fed in the '80s ever had this kind of disparity, and we don't bank at those anymore because they no longer exist. i'm not saying that citi no longer exists. i'm saying we need an explanation, and if they have one, i'm welcome to it. but if they don't, i'm staying away. >> that's interesting. it's not every day, jim, that we are the first to put on a live intraday chart. in this case, it's ibit, ishares bitcoin trust registered. >> i happened to bump into the cmo of coinbase on my airplane to san francisco. she said, listen, thank you for all the coverage, and i would say that the coinbase situation was one where it was down three the moment this announced. and i think it's important to point out that there is a love for coinbase, and the stock went from being down three to being -- i don't know, what is it, up six right now? a lot of it is there's a level of enthusiasm that i think was

capped by the s.e.c., and now -- i mean, the s.e.c. happened to be stuck with this decision that said that that's it's not a -- that it should be regulated, and coinbase being up is, again, the opposite of what a lot of pros would have said, which was this was when you should be selling it, and maybe people are going to hit it like heat-seeking missiles at $155. i don't see it yet. >> robinhood is only up 0.5%. >> hood's core base of operations is options. and we know that, what, 80% of options expire worthless, so i don't want that to be my core business. i think that robinhood's stock ran up in part because of this, but in the end, when you see the report, it's not going to be as related to coinbase as people think. it's related to whether, you know, some of the programs they have for retirement are interesting, but it's related to volume, and we don't have -- if the individual's back and 57% of trading is the individual, you

would think their stock would be met with an equal amount of people who are now trading and it's not. not equities. options, yes. that's an unstable business. >> apple continues to try to climb, jim. a lot of discussion about the vision pro being their first new category in almost ten years. >> i am still a believer that someone's going to find a way to subsidize it. right now, it's too expensive. someone's going to want to open accounts with it, maybe with a buy now, pay later. when i ran that through apple, they were saying, that's a novel idea, saying, basically, that we don't know anything about that. i would point out that this is -- there's goldman made it a very positive note this morning. >> top pick in earnings. >> after four negative pieces of research. >> remember the ron hall days? >> oh, my, yes. yeah. well, you get left behind sometimes. but one thing is -- that's important is the stock was up yesterday, even though we had a downgrade from red burn. it reversed during day. i'm not saying anyone had this call, but there is a sense that maybe this is an opportunity, apple.

my worry, carl, is that, oh, by the way, we saw pcs finally bottoming out. it's china, because anything related to china, when i was at the -- when i was at the health care conference, china just riddles the earnings of everybody, because nothing's what people thought it was going to be in china, so i don't want a major problem with china. last quarter was not a major problem in the major cities, but if you're related to china, you have to take a hit. >> right. it was a pretty classic bounce off the 200-day here. >> wasn't that amazing? >> almost to the penny. >> by the way, the charts got better with this reversal for the mag seven, particularly meta, which is -- there are people who are saying, well, meta, they're going to throw in the towel on meta, that platform. i think those people should go, hey, meta, and put the ray-bans on. i know they look odd. i'm going to kansas city. when it's minus 20, the ray-bans don't play a role. but right now, they're as cool as anything i've ever seen.

>> speaking of tech, lot of think pieces today about the echo boom of layoffs at unity, amazon, google today in hardware, crm memo saying we're going to freeze some hiring. >> there was a very positive note on crm. now, it's so funny, because when you see the notes -- >> it's baird. baird goes to outperform. >> i don't know why people feel like, oh yeah, marc benioff, he suddenly cares about profitability. marc benioff has cared passionately about profitability since 2008. they want to realize that when, you know, when elliott came in there, he was saying, tell me how to make more money. when i caught up with marc recently, just by text, this is not a position linked to the "time" person of the year. he said, look, i'm so glad we're making money. who cares about being a dow stock? i think people have to start realizing that benioff wants to make you money. the amazon call is very interesting. they have figured out how to do

tv, how to do sports. so, now, they're able to do something that i think real good businesses do, which is say, we figured it out. we know how to do it, so let's lay people off who are not core, and that's what they did, and amazon has been an amazing stock. >> check out that. 2% gain today. and briefly, we'll talk some belichick in a bit, but nfl regular season earnings -- regular season game ratings, up 7 year on year. >> we work for comcast, but obviously, this is a wild card weekend, and anyone who has exposure in the nfl has made a lot of money. we saw a positive note -- a lot of notes about disney, and what i'm getting, you know, moffett nathan says disney plus is the key, but i've got to tell you, i think that sports is very hot. >> i think the wells note today, sports en fuego, is how they put it. >> i'm not saying to bob iger,

who is a green bay fan, a long shot when you're playing in dallas, is necessarily sitting there and saying, wow, are we doing badly. i think the opposite. but that stock is doing badly. that's one of the worst stocks i've ever seen. holy cow. >> disney? >> this is one of the reasons why -- why is nelson peltz so upset? someone asked me, why is nelson peltz so upset? i said, how about because the stock does nothing but go down. >> there are some external factors. i know goldman trimmed their domestic box office estimate for the year in part because of the production strike issues. >> but also, i think that there's a sense that disney used to make so-called wholesome movies. those of us who are in the -- like i like the rainbow, i mean, it's more of a rainbow approach now, but there also is a recognition that there are places that don't want what so-called "woke" movies are. i'm not in the generation that says "woke." >> even desantis last night in the debate talked about a so-called woke disney. jim, netflix, i think this is

the first peak above 500 -- is it ever? $485? july. above $500 this morning. >> they have a huge number of people in the ad tier, more than we thought. talking about, what, 23 million? one of the things i would tell you about the ad tier is that if you like netflix, remember, amazon is going to make you pay more to not see ads. that's another reason why raising numbers, amazon, right here, right now, because i think we'll pay a little bit more not to see their ads, and that was a very smart way to keep prime good and make it great for those of us who don't want to see ads during many of the things that we watch on amazon. >> oil flirting with $73. we did have this oil tanker off the coast of oman. i iran says now it was seized, illegitimate transfer of oil. a lot of discussion about what it does to core goods cpi.

me mersk, all of them talking about it today. >> rusty brazil is talking about how the very large cruise ships that move oil, nonstop from the permian. we can make it up. i mean, that's what people don't realize. we actually have enough oil to make up whatever's lost there. it's just that where it's being shipped, the cost of the tanker going around africa is great. >> right. elsewhere, chesapeake southwestern, we haven't talked about, or oxy, berkshire's share going to 34. >> well, the natural gas, let's talk about that. some would say that it's two drunken sailors getting together. i would never say that. >> some are saying. >> i'm not there in that camp. they say two drunken sailors. i say, hey, i'm not there. but these are -- natural gas has been historically a very tough gain. >> the widow maker. >> yeah. the widowmaker. i like coterra, which has the

ability to switch from oil to natural gas, but i congratulate these companies for getting through. southwest always had a decent balance sheet. not so chesapeake. the late aubrey mcclellan put together chesapeake, and he was a friend, and i think it was a guns gunslinger company. i remember going to utica. it was like a reverse magic trick. but aubrey took it like a man, as a person, like he always did. >> the underlying commodities had a crazy week getting to 340, i think. i think we got close to 3 again this morning. >> i'm going to this kansas city game, and people tell me it's going to be minus 20. they're probably going to burn a lot of natural gas. what is this minus 20? what is it, like, the base camp four? i mean, really. >> so, they're going to have the cold and the noise to handle. >> and the peacock. >> yes. >> what happens to a peacock at minus 20?

frozen in an unnatural position. >> really quick, just on belichick, the presser is at noon, by the way, with kraft and belichick, we think. pete carroll last night, vrable, we mentioned earlier in the week, ron rivera. >> what a tough business. vrable, coach of the year in 2022 and now out. i think ron rivera, let's put it this way, some of these people, when they were a coach for, say, defense, they were unbelievable. but not everybody's saying offensive coordinators should be a coach or defensive coordinator be a coach. it's something i'm going to talk about. i'm talking to tony dungy and rodney harrison. rodney played safety for belichick, so rodney is probably going to come up in my questioning, just give him a little heads-up. >> my favorite stat is in the 24 seasons that bill's been at the patriots, all other teams had 231 coaches. that just shows you. >> lot of rings.

>> six rings >> we have these people. pete carroll only had one super bowl win. i would say the question is always, is he nice? and i would always come back and say, who cares? >> jim, we briefly got 4,797, which would be an all-time closing high. we're going to watch that. >> this is on a hot cpi, an allegedly hot cpi. look, i continue to believe that the best is yet to come when it come to the fed. we want this thing stalled. we don't want a series of rapid rate cuts, because then something is wrong. we know from steve scherr, i mean, the ceo of hertz, there's nothing wrong, other than the fact that tesla's really hard to fix when someone rear ends -- gets rear ended. >> let's get to bob pisani on the markets and the bitcoin etfs. hey, bob. >> well, we finally made it here. bitcoin etf is a reality. here's one of the guys who made it a reality. dave is the head of etfs for grayscale. what did it take, 11 years?

>> we're excited to be here today. it was the culmination of a lot of hard work and the strength in our legal arguments that allowed us to get to this regulatory approval here today. >> and you did win the case against the s.e.c. gary gensler referenced that yesterday. give me your thoughts, dave. i see 5.5 million shares. that is very respectable for a start. i want to see the spreads here, what's going on. it looks like a 7, 8, 9-cent spread. how would you describe that in terms of tightness of trading? >> 5.5 shares a few minutes into the trading day, tracking the price of bitcoin, 2 or 3% spread is showing the liquidity that we think a product like gbtc is going to, you know, really offer investors. this is a product that has 28 billions in assets. we have a ten-year track record and we're going to be a source of liquidity for the institutional buyer. >> good to see it's trading in

reasonably tight spreads. we have 11 companies out there. you're one of them. you're the high man on the totem pole in terms of fees. bitwise, trading right next to you, they're 0.2%. that's a big spread. they're the lowest ones out there. how are you justifying this fee right now? >> fee is one consideration when investors are making a decision on an etf. remember, gbtc is a premium market that came to the market in a differentiated way. we have $28 billion in assets. we have a million investors. we have a ten-year track record. and we are going to be something that the marketplace can rely on. >> what about inflows? a lot of people are making some wild speculations about the kind of money this is going to track. they're using parallels with the gold etfs 20 years ago. is that a fair comparison? how much money, overall, do i think these etfs, collectively, act as a representative of the group, will attract in the next few months? >> bob, 30 years ago, etfs innovated with s&p 500 exposure. 20 years ago, etfs innovated with gold. today, we're innovating with

bitcoin. we're really excited about it. we think this is a validation for the asset class and the sky's the limit. >> finally, just very quickly, institutions. are they going to get more? is jpmorgan, is u.p.s., are high-end wealth managers going to start recommending this, or is there still legal concerns? >> look, having an etf and market for bitcoin is a validation for the asset class, and some of the largest asset managers in the world have stepped into this. we think that the sky is the limit, and we absolutely think that there's going to be inflows for retail investors, the advise market and institutions alike. >> thanks very much. guys, we're going to be standing here all day watching how these other etfs trade. the key here is how close do they all trade relative to bitcoin and bitcoin futures? that's what everybody wants to watch. back to you. >> bob, thank you. yeah, bob is right. that spread is going to be fascinating. >> yeah, i think people are trying to figure out, one, is it an asset class? two, if it's an asset class, how much of their -- of a big mutual fund has to own some?

and i think that that's going to be more determined than individuals. will it be something that they want to own, and they now have something that is legit to own it with? or did it just run up so much that, after today, we see it peak? i don't know whether i want to say that if only just because the enthusiasm just seems to know no bounds. >> every headline has a phrase like "watershed moment," right? the legitimatization of an asset class as a whole. >> look, i think that the -- when the s.e.c. lost that case, as bob referenced, that really was the sense of, wow, you know, the federal judiciary is okay with it. and i do think that there are just too many people who want to dabble. they want to dabble. >> as we were just saying, s&p did get to an all-time closing high, backed off pretty immediately from 4,798. we're going to watch that. watch bonds as well. we got cpi under our belts.

we will get barkin at 12:40 and a 30-year auction today after the ten-year was pretty in line yesterday. as you can see, ten-year got to about 4.07% or so, backing off a touch but still above 4%. with the dow now down 28. don't do away. nice to meet ya. my name is david. i've been a pharmacist for 44 years mainly because i just love helping people. as i got older, it was just a natural part of aging, i felt that my memory was beginning to decline and that's when i started looking for something that would help. when i first started taking prevagen, i noticed my memory was so much better. just stuff seemed to come together and fit like a jigsaw puzzle in my mind. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription.

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. microsoft has surpassed apple as the most valuable by market cap. it's an awfully thin lead but it is. there. morgan stanley has a survey of cios looking at i.t. budgets. almost 70% say ai will impact their budget and microsoft, they allergen best position -- >> it's funny i have that piece right here. it's a takeaway by microsoft. >> we've given up opening gains. dow down 100. we'll get stop trading with jim in a minute.

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wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. let's get stop trading with jim. >> something that hasn't happened since 1999 when things were promotional and exciting. people keep buying something on the same story. a piece by ubs, nvidia did well at ces. here it goes. nvidia again. all-time high. i mean you could report on

something that everyone knew is rather -- and had the stock go up. it's counterintuitive. let the good times roll. guess so. >> at least half a dozen notes on nvidia ces this morning. >> nvidia crushed it at the health care conference. i mean, i don't know where d what conference would -- i'm sure nvidia is going to crush it. the chiefs versus the dolphins they have to be there. >> i'm doing my show right at -- i'm doing "mad money" and we have the ceo tom pollen is great, trflying to kansas city, prepared my iphone is going to die. plus 5, anything below it dies. doing our show from kansas city from the stadium. and -- tomorrow night. i will be doing super fan stuff on saturday talking with the people who run nbc sports, and i'm a daily fantasy player, i'm

a fan. i have more championships under my belt than anybody. i cannot wait to talking about what's really going on and what fans consider to be most important. the fourth quarter, that's when we care, when no one else cares, that's what we care. >> do you have favorites for the postseason? >> i do. >> you know what, when you have the favorites, when you have apple versus microsoft, i'm sorry, when you have san francisco versus baltimore, then you can try to gin up something, but i can't. that's what i think will be outside chances. only up -- the bills are the hot team. >> talk about momentum. what a season it's been. >> the bills are meta. because josh allen, right -- >> under zuckerberg. >> and just keep going up. got very hot. shawn mcdermott, i knew his father, from philadelphia! he's a very calm, good, guy. >> well, i can't wait.

we have to get through tonight and tomorrow and then watch you on saturday. >> i can't wait either. wild card weekend is the weekend. i mean it's too bad it's january. we used to slam them and watch the games on the west side. that was what you do. stay on the west side bar for eight hours. >> jim, good hour. we'll see you tonight. "mad money." 6:00 p.m. eastern. we'll keep an eye on the bitcoin opor trade after the ftc decision.

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good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla. we are live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. david has the morning off. take a look at stocks reaction to the cpi number. s&p 500 little changed. kind of a tale of two markets today because tech is working, information technology, communication services, higher. that's powering the nasdaq. it's why it's positive. but most everything else is lagging, like utilities, real estate, financials, health care, materials, so the defensive and the cyclical groups both under pressure with the dow down about 75 points. take a look at treasuries.

this is pornds. bond ra-- important. the bond rally halted. seeing buying with yields down. that's the most sensitive to interest rate policy expectations. 106r above 4%. not a huge move. 30 minutes into the trading session. here are movers we're watching. a landmark moment for crypto. the first ever spot bitcoin etfs trading in the u.s. after the green light from the s.e.c. bitcoin topping 47,000 after the approval highest level since the spring of 2022. we're going to talk to black rock's chief investment officer of etf and index investments about the impact of the move. plus, microsoft's market cap, topping apple's this morning as a number of mega cap names hit new highs. more on the state of tech later this hour. watch kb home under pressure after revenue and profit came in lower than a year ago although the management did sound optimistic about demand this

year. the top story we have to be talking about up front is inflation and the takeaway is, a little hotter than expected, and if you look at the annual inflation rates, they're higher than the fed wants it to be and they're higher than 29%. i'll review the two top line numbers. 3.4% is the annual headline inflation rate from where we were a year ago. we made a lot of progress, but it's still too high. the core cpi which strips out food and energy, the fed watches it carefully, 3.9%. why did it come in a little bit hotter? why were prices rising more than we thought? there was some month over month increases in shelter. shelter has been stubborn and a problem. apparel ticked up a little bit on the month. medical care costs higher. air fares a little bit higher month over month if you go more granular you saw spikes in random places like pet care services might be helping those

stocks, and the other one i will throw at you is the super core. we know the fed watches that one. that's, you know, the services prices basically, excluding housing. rose at the same pace as december. 0.4% for the month 3.9% for the year. the bottom line is that for a fed that really wants to see evidence that it's moving down to 2%, the last mile could be tricky and is -- and while the trend is in place, toward disinflation, i think they're going to want to see more evidence that they're closer to their target before cutting. >> got to throw claims in there as well. 202k. obviously, the labor market continues to just be unexpectedly strong. that probably did some -- something to do with what yields did and what equities are doing arguably this morning as well. food was interesting. the spread between food away from home year on year, 5.2 and food at home, 1.3 is the biggest spread in seven years or so. >> which speaks to the stronger part of the economy right now which is people going to eat

out, and that's why those prices remain hot, where at home, on grocery, that needed to calm down. that was really -- that was causing a lot of pain. it's not all the way back down and if you look -- i go granular in this into every food group and always go to white bread. it's still rising. >> eggs are getting chatter. >> eggs are cheap down 24% from last year because we had to deal with the avian flu thing. if you look at certain categories it's -- the reason i think we've been trying to grapple with this question about why people are still feeling lousy when inflation is coming down and they have jobs and they have income growth, and the reason is they're still feeling these higher prices. they're not celebrating disinflation like the market is because disinflation means prices are rising, not deflating and crackers are still 7% more expensive than they were a year ago. i go to all my favorite food groups, ice cream, saw 2% rise from a year ago, whiskey 1% rise

from a year ago. there's still parts of this that are showing price increases, even though they have moderated a lot. just the little bit of a disconnect between the wall street sort of fed crew and then ordinary americans. university of michigan consumer sentiment is still relatively low compared to the fundamentals in this economy and that gets a lot of attention because, first of all, it could have political implications and second, we wonder if it's going to have an economic effect if people don't have a lot of confidence. the fact that we do still see inflation is part of the story. >> yeah. i mean i'm not sure if we want to see outright deflation as a general practice. it's not a good sign about any economy. luckily, we have fuel oil down 14 year on year, utilities lower year on year. gasoline has been a boom to the consumer. used cars continue to chip in. the airfare i thought was interesting. >> higher. >> up 1% month on month that's

been a pretty good contributor to inflation, disinflation, that thesis in the last 12 months. >> medical care costs and insurance through premium, insurance costs kicking in at a higher level. motor vehicle costs surging 20% over the year. the most since the 1970s. there's still some pockets which painful, wischich is not to say haven't made progress which we have. new york fed president talking about the need to be restrictive until they see more evidence. we could just pull up the quote. i expect that we will need to maintain a restrictive stance of policy for some time to fully achieve our goals and it will only be appropriate to dial back the degrees of polls restraint when we are confident inflation is moving towards 2%. is that march? is that may? that's what the market will continue to debate. there's no sharp reaction because this isn't crazy off of sort of consensus kind of numbers, but for those that say

fed is not going to hike or cut until the second half of the year it gives them fuel. for those that say they're going to cut early in the year, it doesn't knock off that argument either. >> yeah. we haven't seen any pivot from goldman in the march camp looking for core pce at 2.2 at the end of the year. they are constructive on how the trend will play out over the course of the year. >> you mentioned jobless claims. that's the other side of the fed mandate. there's no sign in the beginning of the year there's increasing stress in the labor market. it continues to be amazingly low jobless claims, and then, housing picks up a little bit, right. themortgage rates have come down. cfo of kb homes listen how he describes the market. >> it's a recent favorable economic trends continue through the spring selling season and beyond, we believe there is upside to our full year estimate, further declines in

mortgage rates, combined with the pent up demand in housing and tight inventory conditions, would provide an opportunity to reduce home buyer concessions. >> sounding optimistic on the decline in mortgage rates and increased activity. let's bring in commentator mike santoli into the conversation. market reaction, mike, you're noting that we've taken a leg lower here. >> backed off a little bit after 10:00 a.m. the big question i think tactically has been, the mega cap idiosyncratic strength going to be able to keep insulating us from a further routine pullback after we came into the year so hot. we've had back and forth depending on the day here. it wasn't surprising to me that bond market took the inflation number in stride. we're saying in recent days that we've had enough accumulated evidence and confidence that inflation is going the right way, that a blip higher above expectations probably doesn't change the entire game. i don't think a march cut, yes or no, is make or break for either market. kind of narrows the path to the

benign outcome. not getting as much help on inflation. i think the market is a little more sensitive to indications of weakness on the growth side of things at this point. getting a lot of that, but between the layoffs and a little bit of the fatigue at the low end of the consumer and we're going to get a test in terms of earnings in the coming days and weeks, i think that, to me, is the bigger, more decisive thing for the market at this point. 3% -- >> i disagree. this is a market addicted to lower rates and craving lower rates. >> where are rates now versus where we were at the lows. >> we were 5% at the 10-year and now at 4%. >> in the short term. that's right. it's not addicted to lower rates from the fed necessarily. >> right. >> make sure yields don't go to the moon. just because the s&p is, you know, 4750 and the fed funds future says we're getting a ton of cuts doesn't mean we're at 4750 because the feds funds

future has a view expressed at this point. i think good news is ultimately good news and vice versa for the economy and markets. i think that's the fix we're in right now because we're not getting a lot of encouragement either way. market still seems it's in one of the routine payback phases from a hot finish to 2023. 3% cpi is, obviously, far from target, but it's also totally compatible with the market being able to deal with that. the stock market being able to deal with that historically. you know, i did see some of the work this morning in reaction to the cpi. if you translate it into pce terms it's not as scary. morgan stanley basically saying if you look at how the pce counts shelter and nuances in health care, it still gets you in the direction that we need to go. i think the market is willing to say more or less have the inflation story in hand and the burden of proof is on the higher for longer inflation camp. we want to make sure that

economy is going to continue to grow, at least muddle through. >> and separate from, you know, the last 30 minutes, the desk commentary talked about long only demand, m&a last 10 days, debt being absorbed pretty well with yields not moving that much. >> that's what it is. is the market trying to tell us we should be a little more frightened about the macro. credit spreads say no. the volatility index says probably not. hoopla over a bitcoin etf, maybe we take that as a sentiment tell, but i don't think it's too decisive at the moment. again, the last couple days, we've had an internal correction. the small caps relative to the nasdaq has totally rolled over. it's given up half of the out performance we got from the lows in october. >> so that's kind of telling you that the market sort of getting a little more defensive, at least in the short term, while we absorb what's probably a routine pullback. >> you think the bigger risk to the market is weaker economic data stickier inflation. >> i don't think a bull market

ends because the economy is better than we thought and the fed can't cut as quickly. that is not the formula after we had no idea for two years -- >> not as quickly, but the next move would be a cut? that's the psychologically -- >> that's the premise in place and i think it's going to take a lot to dislodge that. i agree with that. if they say we have to go to 6% on the fed funds we're all in trouble. i think we're a long way from that. >> mike, we'll talk in a little bit. let's get more perspective on the cpi print. former pimco chief economist paul mccauley with us, an adjunct professor at georgetown. great to have you back. >> good morning. >> was this a troublesome print? >> no, i don't think so. it was a noisy print. we got another disappointment on homeowners equivalent in rent, still not telling us what the real world is telling us, but in general, i think it's just noisy

and the underlying disinflationary trend is very much intact and i do think that rents are going to come down as the year progresses, and the most important issue for the markets is it pivot is unambiguously in. the data have said, the fed is finished. the fed effectively has said they're finished. the next move is a cut, and it's going to be a series of cuts to take us back to neutral. so that's the theme the market is working on. i think it's the right theme and the data doesn't change that really at all. it's noisy in the data. it's noisy in the market. we're fundamentally in a soft landing with a pivot already in rhetorically and we're just waiting for it to come in reality. timing, pace and magnitude. >> but there is this sort of nagging worry in the back of the market's minds, i think,

probably the fed that that last mile from, you know, 3 to 2% on inflation is going to be tricky and stubborn and they don't want to cut prematurely and risk not getting there or potentially going the other way. what do they do about that? >> i think that's very, very right. i think they're warm and fuzzy, but not urgent to start a cutting process in part because of the last mile issue, but i think echoing what mike was talking about is, they want to see somewhat softer economic growth and softer labor conditions and the economy is still strong. it's not, you know, strong like it was a year ago, but it is still strong. i think they will disappoint, if you will, the market, probably all year long, in lagging where the market is pricing because of the last mile issued, but also, i think they want to see softer

growth, softer labor conditions, and, in fact, president williams essentially said that yesterday, his forecast for growth this year is about 1.25, which implies they need to see weakness in growth and employment in tandem with continued disinflation to have a sense of urgency through the easing process. >> another complication which we seem to bring up every day now is the activity in the red sea. we got commentary from maersk, a fifth of ocean freight right there. tesco mentioned it. do you think that gets passed through? is it more of an issue for europe than us? >> it's certainly more of an issue for europe, but i don't think it fundamentally changes the issue in the marketplace, which is the timing magnitude of the easing process.

i don't think the fed is going to get wrapped around the axle about it. it will, quote, unquote, look through it, so i think it's an important variable for the economy and the markets overall, but i don't think it has a keen sort of ability to tilt the train that is down the line, which is the easing process. so we have to watch it, but i don't think it fundamentally changes the fed's dynamic. >> well, from our standpoint no cpi evaluation is complete without your take, paul. we appreciate it as always. good to see you. >> thank you very much. as we head to break here's our road map for the hour. a game-changing moment for the crypto community. spot bitcoin etfs begins trading today. what does it mean for investors, the industry and regulation. black rock's chief investment officer joins us. >> microsoft's market cap tops

apple today. nvidia's all-time highs, amazon, alphabet new highs. a closer look at the state of the tech trade. bracing for the big banks. jpmorgan, citi, wells fargo, set to report earnings tomorrow. we'll get you ready for results. big show still ahead. "squawk on the street" will be right back. dow down about 236 right now. s&p is also taking a leg lower to start the hour.

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. bob pisani is with us tracking the latest bitcoin etf moves and joins us with a special guest today. >> we made it. we're quite excited. looks like all ten products for etfs are trading right now. let's bring in the chief investment officer from black rock from the nasdaq. you're watching the trading like i am. i wonder how you characterize the initial trading. 16 million shares. i think you're the volume leader among the bitcoin etf products that launched today. >> good morning, bob. i'm excited to be here today. yeah, this is an exciting moment and it's a beginning, and it's orderly trading which is what we always want to see. >> the important thing here is, investors want to know how well is this going to track, bitcoin and bitcoin etfs? can you give us your sense of that and how is it doing relative to bitcoin? >> that's exactly right, bob. what investors look for in etfs

is performance and performance is a couple things -- it's market quality, which is liquidity, spreads, and, of course, it's tracking. how well does this vehicle deliver what they're actually looking for, which is spot bitcoin. that's what investors haven't been able to get in an exchange traded wrapper. so far we are optimistic that that's what we're going to be able to deliver. >> so i'm looking at the spreads here. this is an indication. this is liquid. we have ten products and a lot of trading going on. i see spreads a few pennies essentially in your product. that's a very good sign. what about inflows? q. 16, 17 million shares in a half hour of trading is pretty good overall. how do you feel this product is going to do in the marketplace? what are your expectations for inflows? >> all we can track right now are secondary volumes, which as you just talked about, we're seeing orderly trading, and inflows, we're going to have to see and we're going to have to

see over time how investors are going to use bitcoin etfs. >> i think the important thing here is -- the first 45 minutes very impressive trading. the next big question all the viewers want to know be and the investors want to know is, when do big institutions, do they change their position? for example, do large financial advisors change their position? gary gensler, head of the sec, admitted defeat yesterday and changed his position, but also said, we want to remind everybody, that anybody recommending these products have certain fiduciary obligations. he referenced regulation, best interest there. do you think institutions are going to more widely adopt this product, now that it's in this particular format? >> bob, i think this is going to be a really important journey of education for investors of all types, including institutions. now we know and the reason that this has happened, investors -- all types of investors have

wanted access to bitcoin through an etf wrapper. there are other wrappers they might want for different reasons, and, so i really think this is going to be a watch this space. this wouldn't have happened, today wouldn't have happened, without investor demand for access to bitcoin through etfs. >> who are you marketing this etf toward and what are you saying about the risks? >> we're talking about, we are working with many partners and leaning into, as i just said, this journey of education, talking about the characteristics of the wrapper, the convenience of the wrapper, and, of course, to your point, it's our expectation that investors will look not just at the wrapper, but also at the underline, as they do for etfs of all types and consider the volatility and the volatility character ix in figuring out what is the right fit. there are etfs they have in their portfolio but interestingly and importantly

one of the things we know from investors they want to see their whole portfolio of risk and they want to see it in one place. one of the things the etf wrapper should do is help them more effectively manage risk by having that sort of transparency and visibility across their investments in their traditional brokerage accounts. >> finally, with so many products, price is a big issue. you're at 12 basis points. there are several at zero for the next six months. do you see further price reductions? seemed like investors are really benefitting from so many competitors that are out there? >> as you said at the beginning, investors are going to look first and foremost for performance. performance is going to be how well the etfs track, it's going to be market quality, and those are going to be the most important thing that drive how well these do, and what is delivered to investors. >> thanks very much for joining us. appreciate it very much. >> thanks for having me. >> early on, look, almost 18 million shares for ishares,

grayscale, 15 million, fidelity 2 million. there's winners and losers in terms of investor choice, that's volume. who is buying the stuff right now at the open. obviously, grayscale has advantage because they were trading before in the form of slightly different form. there's already some real clear money going in here and i think ishares should be very happy. >> you think that's -- >> the spread is tight. >> about fees or marketing or something else? >> i think blackrock is big and they have a very effective, you know, very well-known name out there. i think they're a natural thing to go to. grayscale is 1.5%. that's a big difference. 12 basis points versus 1.5%. that's a big difference. there's a lot of sticky money at grayscale right now, and they're relying on that. i wouldn't be surprised if something changed on that particular case -- >> why are they moving in different directions? shouldn't they be tracking bitcoin higher? >> i'm going to give this a day to see what happens. the answer is in theory, yes, they should be. >> i mean this one is down 1.5%.

>> i want to ask about particular trading patterns. i'm going to give it a day and the answer is, yes. the public wants to see that these things should be tracking reasonably close. bitcoin futures and bitcoin track reasonably well together and if there was some weird divergences that happened, i think investors should ask questions about that. >> glad you're on the case. >> we'll be watching it. it's a great day. >> bob pisani. we'll check in later. after the break chamber of commerce ceo suzanneclark with her read on american business, inflation and expectations and more. why she is optimistic here coming up next. don't go away.

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and relentlessly work with you to make them real. . welcome back to "squawk on the street." our next guest says the optimism of american entrepreneurship remains strong with a near record number of new business starts. she also warns that free enterprise is under threat. u.s. chamber of commerce ceo suzanne clark joins us now. it is a big day. your state of american business speech, how would you describe the state of american business right now? >> first of all, good morning. i'm excited to go give this speech and to give you a little

sneak preview. thank you for having me. look, the state of american business is optimistic. i've been watching this morning as you talk about this new fund, you know, blackrock didn't launch that because they were pessimistic. nobody opens their business in the morning because they don't think customers are going to come in. people hire and make five-year plans and acquire companies because they believe in the markets. they believe that they can be optimistic about their future. every business person is optimistic or they wouldn't be able to do their job. >> yes, but we've seen in some survey, small business, for instance, has been pessimistic lately and i don't know if it's politically motivated or the inflation problem that's still out there. it's not like we're seeing this mass confidence. >> you know, it's so interesting, sara, i think what we hear from small businesses all the time is, they can be optimistic about their business and their ability to serve customers and hire and grow, but they are worried about the overall economy and in

particular what our small businesses are telling us, they're continuing to worry about wage growth, the employee shortage, the pressure on labor and what that means about their, you know, being forced to continually keep up with these wage increases. >> that's still a bigger concern than a demand falloff, the inflation piece of it? >> definitely. >> sowhy do you say under threat? what are you worried about specifically? >> i'm worried about a couple things. i'm worried about academia, think tanks a company well-funded foundations that are coming out against capitalism. i worry about a small group of people on the left, a small group of people on the right, who don't talk about being pro-business anymore or pro-growth. what's the opposite of free markets? is that really what people are for? we're seeing it in this administration. we're seeing a real ideological driven agenda in these regulatory agencies that's not about the economy, it's not about american business or

american security, it's about advancing political agendas through these really political agendas and it's a problem. >> although some would argue, if you're talking about industrial policy, some argue that it involves national security. reshoring chip production, which flultsz a bunch of grants and picking winners and losers, but some argue that the intent is to bring security to technology in our supply chain. does that make sense? >> look, what i'm talking about is some of the overreach that we're seeing in competition in markets at some of the financially -- the financial regulation, things that we've had to challenge in courts. it's not that there isn't a role for government in professionaling national security, there isn't a role for government in setting conditions where markets can work and companies can be successful. it's the concern that when that slips into political agendas, we have to call it for what it is. >> is there something specific

you're referring to? >> yeah. i mean, i think what we're really seeing is all the work we're having to do in regulatory litigation, all the work to figure out what the real goal of something that's delegated to an agency is, and when that authority is overreached, when they're moving into places they do not have the authority to work, that we have to challenge them in court and constrain their impact on markets and on business when they don't have the authority to do it. we just saw it, for example, in our suit with the sec about the buyback rule, right. the idea that they're going to regulate competition, force companies to have to say to their competitors and in the market how they want to allocate capital, no one gave them the authority to do that and it's why we challenge and won. >> in this administration, are your legal fights up from where they were in previous administrations? >> yes. >> by how much? >> i don't know the percentage, but i would tell you that even

just the briefs that we have to file, let alone the party litigation, has been skyrocketing. it's in part because we aren't seeing congress step up and do their job. that leaves the agencies with this wide berth and so we end up having to take fights to the courts instead of having these things settled in the congress in a bipartisan lasting way, so that business has the certainty it wants and needs to continue to grow and to continue to hire, like, you know, we saw this with this bitcoin decision. one of the rules of the road, we filed a brief for this, we want clarity and we want to understand what the rules of the road are so there's certainty and we can provide products and services the way the american markets want. >> are you hoping for a change? are why you hoping for a republican administration to take over? we've seen some republican -- some of the nominees, not exactly very friendly to business. i'm thinking of desantis, president trump. they've had plenty of fights with business.

>> you know, it's so interesting, because i'm asked a lot who does the business community want to be president, and the answer is, the business community is homogenous. if you think of the electrician in your hometown versus a hedge fund manager versus a tech company or software engineer. these are different individuals. it's part of the reason we don't get involved in the presidential. there are two choices. it's a divided country. people will vote. where we do want to get involved is making sure that companies, small and large, across this country, get louder. the 134 million people employed by the private sector stand up and say, we expect candidates at every level for every office in both parties to be pro-business, pro-growth, that that's what we need for humanitarian causes, this is what we need for national security. the private sector works. business is working. what is scary is that negative campaign ads work. every other year is an election year, and we get this barrage of everything that's wrong with

america all the time. the truth is, business is working. business is ready to solve complex problems, ready to promote growth for families and communities and we want candidates who are willing to support that and talk about it. >> suzanne clark, thank you very much for joining us. we really appreciate it, ahead of your state of american business speech this morning. the u.s. chamber of commerce ceo. as we go to break, check out some of the names hitting fresh 55-week highs this morning. a lot of tech in there, google, palo alto, amazon, nvidia, servicenow. a programming note, a big week out of football. nfl playoff wild game, of course, the dolphins and chiefs streaming exclusively on peacock. cramer will be involved saturday at 8:00 p.m. eastern time. "sawonhetrt"s ckquk t see iba in a couple minutes.

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attorney general letitia james just entered a manhattan courtroom for closing arguments in trump's $250 million civil fraud trial. james is seeking $370 million in fines and to bar trump's real estate business from operating in new york. the former president has denied any wrongdoing. iranian state media said tehran captured an oil tanker today previously involved in a dispute with washington over carrying u.s. sanctioned crude oil. it came after uk maritime sources reported four to five armed men hijacking the tanker near the gulf of oman and said it appeared to change course toward iran after they boarded. new england patriots' coach bill belichick is reportedly leaving the team after 24 seasons. the patriots did not respond to request for comment this morning, but the team did issue an advisory saying owner robert kraft and the six-time super bowl winning coach will hold a press conference at noon

eastern, after the pats ended their season 4-13. back to you. we'll see what we get at noon. checking on the markets on this thursday morning, we did get to a fresh s&p closing high and then immediately backed off. wear back to 4767 and the dow down 130. a number of big tech names continue to trade at or near record highs and we'll turn to our dom chu. >> so i've been watching what's happening right now. we'll start with shares of microsoft as you guys have been pointing out which have hit all-time highs so far in today's session. again, not so for apple sharesp, which are extending in essence their slow start to the year. by the way, at its highest levels during the session microsoft's market cap did briefly surpass apple's making it the most valuable company in the world. we'll keep an eye on those shares. microsoft up fractionally. >> alphabet the parent company of google trading at its highest levels since february of 2022. amazon reaching its highest levels since january of 2022.

the mega cap universe nvidia moving between gains and losses but did reach an all-time record high at its highest levels of the session so far. nvidia shares up fractionally right now. we'll round out the magnificent seven large cap tech names. shares of meta platforms that is trading lower today but in striking distance of its highest level of a year which it did in yesterday's session. down 3% from its record highs. we'll finish up on what's happening with tesla which is right now in negative territory and the worst of those magnificent seven names so far this year and more than 20% off its july 52-week highs. keep an eye on tesla down about 3%. i'll send things back downtown to you folks. >> thanks. we're watching home builders shares of kb homes dropping on the back of earnings and we'll talk to one analyst who calls the stock a buy here and argsz argues the home builders are eaat tsechp he levels. find out why after the break.

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kb homes beat expectations for q4 but revenue and profit were lower than a year ago. the company does stand to gain outside share going forward, remains optimistic about the builders. analyst john is here at post nine to talk about the sector. it's good to have you here. >> thanks, carl. >> is it about selling price? is that why what we're seeing. >> kpi is above the board. the one area that was soft orders, up 176% year over year. a little bit below expectations. keep in mind interest rates or mortgage rates went up over 8% during the quarter. because of this kbh slightly tripped their top line forecast for the year and the market is sort of digesting that today. >> you make a point about the lock-in effect we're seeing regarding rates and how we kind of saw it in the volker era. how did it play out then versus how you think it's going to play out now? >> interestingly, new home sales are recovering faster, this time

around, than we did during the volker years. it's a function of the home builders being creative in their financing offerings. offering mortgage rate buy downs and things of that nature sort of smoothing out demand and bringing a lot of people to the table that perhaps would have been challenged from an affordability standpoint. >> well, one of the biggest surprises is that they spent much of last year while the fed was raising rates and mortgage rates shooting higher, going up the stocks because of this inventory problem. is it harder to pinpoint the right valuation now that activity and rates are coming down and activity going up because the backdrop is one of strength? >> that's a great he question and i think there's a compelling argument to be made the stocks are too cheat to the market. 13 turns cheap to the s&p. balance sheets have improved. there's an opportunity for outsized market share gains, margins and returns are structurally higher going forward than they were in the past, and i think that the opportunity for consistent cash flow throughout a cycle is

something that we're going to see. these stocks are very different than they were in the past and very different companies. >> are you expecting existing supply to come online this year to surprise either up or down? >> it's the big question. we're modelling efficiently existing home sales increasing 5% year over year. it's important to keep in mind that 80% of mortgages are 5% or below. 60% are 4% or below. we would need a pullback in rates to see a glut of supply coming back. unless this supply coming back to the market is unruly, something that happens in the economy that causes a disruptive flow, i think it's fine. the market right now is dysfunctional. we need the supply to come back. >> what's your year end forecast for say the 30-year fixed? does it have a 6? >> you know, look, that's above my pay grade. >> yeah. >> what i would tell you, our forecasts are saying look, we're going to keep rates about where they are today. we're a little bit more conservative than the street on margins because of that. if we do see rates come down,

which everyone seems to be thinking is going to happen and i hope it happens, there's going to be upside to our numbers and the street's numbers. >> we'll see how the builders do today and the coming weeks. thanks. >> thanks for having me. >> big banks, those that arr,s errour in the foth qute ithe om to run here? jpmorgan and citigroup. stay with us. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq,

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tomorrow morning set to be a busy one. results out of bank of america, jpmorgan, wells fargo and citigroup. leslie picker with more on what we should be watching. >> sara, trading a little lower, but tomorrow's results come amid a huge runup in bank names over the last few months. the kbw bank index up about 30% since november with each of the big six up at least 20% over that period. the prospect of a fed pivot and a soft landing served as a rising tide to lift the sector, especially during the end of 2023. contrast these moves with fourth quarter eps estimates with the street seeing average declines of about 14% on the bottom line. bank investors have been largely looking past the fourth quarter in bidding up the names, focusing on the prospects of

2024. so, that means the outlooks they get from bank executives will be key here. and depending on what we hear, it could get a bit choppy over the next few weeks, just given the recent outperformance. ubs writes, quote, the bar for this rally to continue is high as the average bank in our universe is asset sensitive, or positively sensitive to rising rates over the next 12 months, and credit quality remains pristine, suggesting both near-term downward pressure and lingering overhang on eps expectations. in other words, the banks appear to be at an inflection point. citi last night disclosed several items, including the fdic special assessment and structuring charges that will impact billions in the firm's fourth quarter numbers. we'll be sitting down with mark mason tomorrow on "closing bell." >> we'll talk to the fdic as well.

i do wonder, leslie, how the tone changes around investment banking with the interest rate stabilization. they started to talk about green shoots a little bit last year but then rates backed up a little more. and then they calmed down that excitement. i wonder if it kicks back up again. >> yeah, i think that will be really important as we kind of think about the outlook because a lot of people, as they kind of digest what's going on in the rates environment are pointing to capital markets and a resurgence there as being a real bull case, especially for those banks that are particularly exposed to investment banking, exposed to trading, exposed to ipo and debt issuance and so forth. so, that could definitely be a bright spot if they do intend to see more green shoots that filter into actual revenue capabilities as opposed to just the prospect of potential deals that may or may not happen. when you start to really book that revenue is what analysts are looking for in terms of a resurgence in that activity. >> big morning tomorrow, leslie.

we'll look forward to it with your help. leslie picker. bitcoin etf kicking off first day of trading. let's get back to bob pisani. >> it's the first day of trading for all ten of these products. number one, is is there any interest, any volume? number two, how is the spread, how tightly is it trading? short answer, actually, very good. grayscale, 22 million shares at $41. we have ten products, that's a lot of demand for the first hour and a half. i'm looking at blackrock's trading at the nasdaq, 20 million shares. that's good. fidelity at 9 million. ark at 3 million. that's a lot of product out there. bitwise is here. this is the orbit coin. that's almost 2 million. how's the spread? look here. 41.18. that's a to-cent spread. that's very tight for a product that's just trading today. look at bitwise.

it's a little wider here, five-cent spread. 26.10 to 26.15. that's the bid and ask. it's a little wider but give it time. that's not bad. good trading volume and decent spreads considering it's a new product. the other thing people have been asking me, wait a minute, i thought this was supposed to track bitcoin. this is up 1.5% and 4.5%? why the difference? the answer is, don't put too much in this. these prices here, again, 4%, this is on a reference price. this is a brand-new product. think of this like an ipo. underwriters get together and they hope it will trade around there, but they're not sure. long-term, absolutely, all these products should trade very closely with bitcoin. if they don't, there's something wrong. that's what everybody will be watching. don't pay too much attention on this day of trading because it's just a reference price that people are using. give it a few days.

then they'll start talking about how well all of these products are tracking against bitcoin. guys? >> bob, we saw this incredible runup in the price of bitcoin itself in anticipation of the etfs getting approved. how much more do you think that has to go? what have we seen with other etfs when they're created and what happens with the underlying asset and how much room it can run up just because of the increase demand and accessibility? >> i'm totally neutral on the question of bitcoin. there's inclusion effect, it happens with stocks and happens here. when people anticipate something is going to happen, if it's going to be good, they buy ahead of the time. so, we saw bitcoin run up from 30,000 to 45,000. as soon as blackrock got interest in june, was reported last year, price started moving up. i wouldn't be surprised if it moves side ways now. uber was going into the s&p 500, big runup. sideways after that happened. this inclusion effect is very real. it happened with gold, too.

gold ran up in 2003 in anticipation of a gold etf in 2004. boom, gold etf happens, moves sideways for another eight, nine months and took off again. inclusion effect, very real. >> that's what i was getting at. >> great explanation. coming up after the break, a lot more on the inflation print. ibm vice chair, former goldman sachs ceo gary cohn is with us when "money movers" begins.

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good morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen. gary cohn is here. we'll get his reaction to cpi, whether the market is misreading the fed on rate cuts. jonathan steinberg joins us after the s.e.c. officially blesses the first bitcoin etf. his firm's bitcoin fund one of the first. tom michau