bathing in the glory of his first win with his new team. great night for him. >> ricky: fantastic. i think he needed that you could kind of hear the urgency in how he was down and they needed a feel-good event. >> leigh: we want to say thanks to the fans here in san francisco. first time in downtown sf in more than a decade it was a night to remember for many, many reasons we'll see you next weekend a little further down the coast in san diego. thanks so much welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede and joined by karen roth coming to you from london and davos. your headlines this hour. the ruling democratic party claims a third term as incoming leader and they reject

reunification from china >> to influence this election. we trust that only the people of taiwan have the right to choose their own president. here in davos, the fourth round of the ukraine peace talks ends with little progress despite 80 countries sitting down for negotiations to date. once again, no russia at the table. >> this president and his team never agreed it's not acceptable by ukrainian society and by the presidents. commencement shares gain as talks resurface with the reuters report suggests the german budget is speculating a deal with the lender and rival deutsche bank. and former president trump holds a dominant lead in the polls with a 48% in the vote

against nikki haley before the gop caucus in iowa welcome to the show. let's get to some german data points for you we have german fourth quarter gdp falling 0.3% in 2023 the final quarter saw a decline of 0.3% according to reuters compared with the previous quarter. german gdp preliminary gdp down 0.3% that is bang in line with forecasts. 0.3% to the down side. we did get data points with industrial production falling in the month of november and we heard from the ifo index business confidence declining.

it is not looking rosy for the german economy let's get to annette with more >> reporter: thank you, caroline if you dig into the fine print, it is interesting especially with the manufacturing space weighing on economic activity which was quite clear if you wanted to monitor what happened this year. it is a combination of factors with the losses. it is the high interest rates which are operating more investments from companies and demand from outside germany, but domestic demand was lower than previously years in 2022, the economy was growing by 1.88% what was the loss was stressing was the economic expansion is

0.76% high than the pre-coronavirus years. the economy is back a little bit better than pre-coronavirus. if you look at the fine print, it is also for the first time in many years in actually 20 years that the german state also decreased its consumption. the state consumption is down 1 opi 1.7% also the long living inconveninventorie are down the more expensive goods with financing are dragging down activity the car space is actually adding to the economic activity in 2023 that is up by 3% which is a bit

of a surprise given we are talking about the difficulty with the german car industry that might actually only be factoring in to the new year's economic development what they are stressing as well is the labor market, despite the weak economic activity is providing is still very robust on average, there have been 45.9 million people employed in germany. it is a bit like the stock market we have the weak economic activity, but still a very robust stock market and also a robust labor market. not actually the scarcity of skilled labor in every sector of the economy which could be one of the reasons going forward which could hinder economic activity to expand at the potential here in the country. back to you.

>> annette, thank you for the ana analysis arabile, i don't know where the pessimism is coming from in germany. >> it is the sick child of europe >> the sick man of europe. we have the biggest event this summer i'm personally excited about it. >> they will say the olympics is >> that, too the euro championships in germany this year. it is difficult to get tickets i'm talking from personal experience that could be a boost to the economy. a massive boost especially if the german team gets a little farther than last time >> that might be the big question mark. if the german team can, you know, performs better. >> if beer sales hold up >> overall, tourism goes up in a time like that you say with experience, 2010 when south africa hosted the football world cup, it was a similar essence. you get people coming into the country.

it does pick up and boost the economy. it is about the longevity, but could kick start things. >> i love we were able to squeeze in a football chat >> you should do it more often let's check in on the market picture and see how things are faring it has been interesting. we are seeing it looking downward now for the stoxx 600 you are seeing more of the food delivery which has taken a bit of a drop today in the likes of just eat and hello fresh at the bottom even occado at the bottom of the sector the sector is looking at the retail space and looking where it should go from here trying to find a sense of direction. we will be looking toward the european market because the u.s. is actually on holiday today mlk day. no trading across the u.s. today. you won't see the futures print.

it will be earnings season which is pushing on in earnest tomorrow in the u.s. we are still seeing banks look out for reporting. this week has the uk inflation print. overall in the european markets, this is how we are looking dax is lower .25% following on the negative 0.3% on the a anticipation from the market the question mark is just about whether that data will beginning to pick up as the year moves on. the smi is sitting flat having started looking positive initially before the market opened we are in a downbeat mood. cac 40 is down .30%. travel and leisure is up

telecom is moving up real estate is following suit. it is marginal gains this dragged the stoxx 600 lower. we will follow on to the banks story. deutsche bank is in the news with commerz bank at 2% in pre-market trade following on from the merger talks with themselves and deutsche bank autos are up .75% with retail stocks down .23% it is some of the delivery retailers which are very interesting at this stage following from last week where we saw the retailers go up 1.5% on the back of the trading numbers. basic resources is .50% weaker. the nikkei still moving higher and touching 36,000 points dipping off from the mark less than 1% to the good to close out

the trading picture today in the monday trade a smidge higher for the shanghai composite. it follows on from the chinese central bank deciding to leave the medium-term policy loan rate unchanged there. this week, we will see the q4 gdp numbers on wednesday we will look out for that out of japan with inflation figures for december that is anticipated to out friday hang seng is down .2%. taiwan's progressive party won a third straight presidential term. lai ching-te is set to become the next president after the victory over the weekend taking 40% of the vote. china's criticized global leaders congratulating lai

accusing them of interfering in chinese affairs. lai said he will continue to push for democracy >> translator: telling the international community that democracy and authoritarianism, we will continue democracy >> let's get back out to emily tan in t'aipei wrap up the day for us >> reporter: thanks, carocaroli. we are live in front of the office building. that is the military band behind me and the lowering of the flag from the top of the presidential building that marks, of course, the end of the business day. we have been here when the flag was raised at 6:30 this morning the first business day on the back of the election to recap the markets before the

election day, the index closing up .25% up the election result was in line with the market expectation for the ruling democratic progressive party to continue to hold the presidency. it will be for an unprecedented third term and lai's win that will bring together with the vice president where she was the former de facto ambassador for the united states for taiwan stationed in washington, d.c they won 40% of the vote it is not even half. that, of course, is a point that analysts are keeping an eye on they will see how difficult it is for him to be able to passes his policies together with the fact they no longer have a majority in the parliament they managed 51 seats from an earlier 61 52 to the opposition and 8 with

the tpp. the majority now is to be formed tpp, the upstart party, the new one in town, since 2019. it will be seen whether or not they will work with the ruling tpp or the kmt will see how they form policies and pass the new legislation that the new administration will put forth. just what happened today, we heard press conference from the ministry affairs division. the pacific island of nora ending diplomatic relations with taiwan to safeguard taiwan, they cut tie was the country. ending the partnership and asking to close its embassy in taiwan they have been gathering information since 2023 that china was in contact with naru and using trade and other financial support to entice and

sway the country china, for it's part, on the back of the latest election result, says taiwan is china's taiwan we will continue to watch this we are not expecting any major changes in policies. the risks still remain the latest coming through from t'aipei. back to you in the studio. >> emily, thank you for that let's get insight and analysis with ben bland, the director of the asia pacific director at chatham house. ben, i thank you for your time let's put to you the billion dollar question. how will beijing see this? will it be the status quo or will beijing ratchet up the pressure >> it is likely we will see beijing continue the ratcheting up of pressure because that is the status quo in the previous two terms of the government. i expect the timing of the pr to

convince the allegiance to the people's republic of china it is interesting. they will ratchet up the pressure i say the fact there is a hung parliament in taiwan for the first time since 2004 and from the chinese perspective, that gives them hope of the ability to tap into forces in taiwanese society and politics if that is not true, that means they won't increase the pressure if the dpp also won majority in parliament >> ben, we are looking in a crucial position to be filled which is the speaker in parliament that could come in early february if that speaker is china friendly, on balance, might it look better for china? >> i think we have to see what happens. the domestic politics will be

comeplic complicated. i think one thing that was clear to me is all three main parties contesting this election, they had different ways they spoke about china and talk to china, they all wanted taiwan to maintain the self government and democracy. in many sense, what is changing is the taiwanese people. i think none of the three parties wants to integrate into the prc. on that front, you know, the chinese government won't find that much support within taiwan. that is ratcheting up the pressure >> ben, good morning it is something i have been asking all morning and i'll poses it to you. get close to china to reduce tensions as much as possible or should taiwan stay rooted in the h

hardline stance and the only way to remain sovereign and strong is maintain the hardline where do they draw the line? do they bring in both? he doesn't necessarily have the same gains that his predecessors have had in the election >> i think it representing continuity he was vice president under weng he will continue the policy. she said she wants to talk to china, but the problem is the chinese communist party doesn't want to talk to the dpp unless it changes its policies. i think i would describe the approach as hardline there is a balance there there is a maturity there and delicacy in how they approach the problem. they reflect the fact that taiwanese people want to maintain their the self government they don't want to be absorbed

by the people's republic of china. the pbr wouldn't accept that the problem is really about china's desire to absorb taiwan despite the taiwanese people >> looking at the rhetoric from the kmt as well, it doesn't seem they have the same views as china with what china has with the one china sentiment. would lai be able to bring them on board to his side of the equation here and create a dissident toward china >> we have to see. that will be a key question in the legislative end of the parliament especially with arms sales for taiwan will the kmt and tpp opposes that they may have the power to do. i think it would not play very well in the taiwanese public

we know in the election, they did say they wanted to that you can talk to china, but in a position of strength i'm not sure what fissures we'll see. it is a complicated with the three-party split. politics is unpredictable. taiwan is a democracy. we will see. >> ben, a quick question to wrap up the risk of the military conflict how likely is that do you have a percentage in mind >> few people in the world plan to invade other countries for fun. obviously, there are terrible leaders who do that kind of thing. i don't think it is likely that xi jinping or the chinese are sitting on any invasion plans. we don't know what is in their heads. the issue for taiwan is the

pressure to undermine the taiwanese society. the missile tests needs to cycle a provocation or miscalculation. i don't think anyone thinks there is any imminent plans for an invasion of taiwan. >> ben, i appreciate the chat here and conkconversation we will continue to check in ben bland, the director of the asia pacific program at chatham house. we will cross over to our team live on the ground in davo as more than 80 countries try to forge a peace plan in ukraine. we will have more after this break. hi, i'm jason. i've lost 228 pounds on golo. ♪ changing your habits is the only way that gets you to lose the weight. and golo is the plan that's going to help you do that. just take the first step, go to golo.com.

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and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. u.s. officials say they have shot down an anti-ship cruise missile fired by houthi rebels this is the first reported incident since u.s. and uk-led

strikes hit targets in yemen on friday south africa has a case in the hague. steve spoke to the finance minister who says there is global support >> the world created institutions for this specific situation. this is one of the institutions. south africa has not done anything unusual by going to the institution established by the united nations settlement between nations. we are following the rule of law and legal principles the second point i want to make is support of israel, of course, including the uk will have global support for our view that in fact our case was substantive. >> you don't argue or do you

argue that with the assumption that israel is acting in self defense after the attacks on october 7th? do you agree >> we agree that the provocation on the 7th of october by hamas, israel had to respond, but it is disproportionate in the manner in which it conducted itself it has been on innocent civilians and children and women in gaza. these are in the west bank and i find it strange that this response is not in gaza. representatives from 80 countries have tried to forge a path to peace in ukraine

rush remained absent from the negotiations let's get back out to steve who is joining us from the chilly area in davos. you have been able to speak to many of the officials? >> we spoke to the foreign minister and we had a lengthy conversation with number two on policy in ukraine. the chief of staff in the president's office for volodymyr zelenskyy. we talked about the aspirations against the reality. let's take a step back and tell you about the conference it is the fourth one there were three held last year. what ukrainians are trying to do is build up momentum with global support for their versus of what peace looks like they have ten points i'll run you through the ten points nuclear and food and restoration and integrity which includes

crimea and donbas as well. it is difficult to see that with the withdrawal of russian troops and confirmation of the cessation of conflict. it is difficult as the russians are not invited. they won't speak to the russians or president putin because of the accused war crimes interesting with mr. peskov from the ckremlin, saying how can we accomplish anything without talks. peskov saying the peace talks are just talks for the sake of talks. interesting, one nation not at the talks yesterday is china the chinese prime minister will be here in davos it is unclear whether he and

president volodymyr zelenskyy will be on the ground here in the next couple days, will find time for a conversation. interesting. i spoke to the chief of staff for president volodymyr zelenskyy. we talked about how concerned he was by the lack of progress both in diplomatic circles and, indeed, progress on the battlefield. >> i was in kyiv at the time of the russian invasion of crimea back in 2014 i've seen the countries fight the last ten years and over the last two years to me, i'm afraid it is not obvious you say ukraine will necessarily win. do you have grave concerns that actually the western support in europe with delayed finances on the back of where orban and in the united states and what could happen after the next presidential election in terms of support and concerns under the current congress with the

level of support and do you need to expand the peace talks and get to the table with the russians otherwise, this could be a frozen conflict that could last another ten years, potentially >> this president and his team never agreed or accepted any frozen conflict. it is not acceptable by ukrainian society. of course, by the president and his team the second, you know, when you are leaving every day in the world and you go to sleep and not sure that you wake up because we are over every night and every day dealing with attacks of missiles and drones and you can see what happened on the 29th of december and 2nd of january means we are living in reality. i'm not thinking about some

imaginations i can say concretely after the visit of president zelenskyy last year and the visit of our delegation several times in the united states and during the meetings, the white house, in congress, with both parties, with the speaker, the state department and talking to the experts and talking with the people who exactly know american policy, we back these positive feelings and we hope and believe that finally the questions of the voting for the new budget for ukraine for support will happen i'm very positive also looking for the adoptions of the 50

billion from our european colleagues and friends >> it was an incredibly steadfast performance by the ukrainians on the podium the lady to the left of mr. yermak was the defense and finance minister the rhetoric is robust we will not negotiate with vladimir putin we will win back every inch of territory taken by the russians and maintained western support from looking at other comments from other players, it seems optimistic view of the situation both on the battle field and in terms of western support and western financing, especially with the pivotal u.s. election with the questions of level of support that a republican presidency, possibly, under mr. trump give to ukraine and europe going forward as well. peace talks in name, i would

suggest, because until you have all parties at table and brokers with the chinese at table, it is difficult to see how a diplomatic solution is viable at this current stage of events back to you, caroline. >> you can keep up to date with everything coaling out of davos, including scores of first on cnbc interviews on our special landing page at cnbc.com. now coverage from davos kicks off this afternoon with the ceos of financial holdings circle ceo is joining us the managing director will join us tune in for the conversations at 1:00 p.m. cet.

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your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. and sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. a lot more. take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify. welcome back to "street signs. i'm carolin roth with arabile gumede these are your headlines germany teeters on the brink of

recession. the previous three months is revised flat taiwan's progressive party claims a third straight presidential term as incoming leader lai rejects fresh reunification pressure from china. >> translator: to our actions, the taiwanese people have resisted forces. we trust the people of taiwan have the right to choose their own president. the fourth round of ukraine peace talks ends with little progress despite 80 countries sitting down for the biggest negotiations to date once again, russia is not at the table. former president donald trump is holding a 48% lead ahead of nikki haley just as the iowa caucus begins today

let's show you what european markets are trading like at this point in time. mixed session. keep in mind that the hand over that we got from asia was fairly mixed as well. we saw the out performance with the japanese markets underperformance elsewhere do keep an eye on the fact that we will not get a lot of direction out of the u.s. today given that the market is closed for a public holiday the smi is out performing 0.1% ftse 100 is hanging on to the flat line. the retailers are under performing in the dax which is off by 0.1%. i do want to tell you about a couple of corporate stories that are making headlines and moving some of the stocks here. reuters has reported that the german government budget usissus are boosting the speculation of

the potential deal with commerz bank and deutsche bank the german finance minister would prefer options enabling the government to exit its stake in the bank. there are no live discussions over a deal. deutsche bank and commerz bank declined to comment. commerz is up 1.4% deutsche bank is trading at 0.4% jpmorgan chase raised its outlook for continental the to overweight in its comments, the bank saying this is on the back of the most con vincing restructuring plan i a decade shares of continental up 1.3%. and casino has received authorization from the french economy for the restructuring plan it is the latest step for the

consortium led by the billionaire to take control of the french supermarket shares are off by a whopping 6.5% despite the news. french tech group atos warns free cash flow will be below the initial target by 100 million euro for the second half of the year take a look at the shares which are off by 11% that is a big drop for the company today. also named paul sally as the ceo in the management shakeup. and finally, softwareone has rejected an offer from bain. it will remain a standalone company. the aboard saying bain did not reflect the value of the

company. s s softwareone is up 4% ara arabile. >> let's get to nick nelson. nick, it has been a movie. the stocks on friday have had a good place to start. i was wondering about the forward guidance on these. you saw so many with the guidance for 2024 which is based on the forward curve the curve says six rate hikes. that sewer surely cannot be rig. >> when the banks are looking at that, they will take that into account. what it means for the net interest margins and outlook for the economy and what it means for the potential loans and loan losses i think the banks have a had run in the result.

on friday, most of the big u.s. banks reporting and came off on the day. we would argue that the macro back drop will be tougher for banks into 2024. you will go with the slower economy. you see some delinquencies from 4% delinquencies to 8%. some canaries in the coal mine >> does that take place in the first half they have taken vadvantage of te net interest margins. >> they have the best of both worlds the nim coming through and if that happens at the same time, you get loan provisions taken for slightly slower economy as we go through 2024 >> let's stay with the banks for a moment regulation really has been a big headache for the u.s. banks given the discussions.

of course, they will be watered down there is a lot of talk in the u.s. european banks, by and large, are probably better placed could european banks be taken market share from the u.s. players here >> that would be a reverse of the last decade. it has been one-way traffic. if you go back to pre-gfc in 2007, european banks had a great run. at one point, the market cap with bnp was almost bigger than jpmorgan chase you look at the last 15 years and it has gone one way across the atlantic maybe that regulation would help the europeans. the bigger issue for them and we have seen this data in last few days, the eurozone is in recession or close to recession. sweden is in recession q2 than q3 were low. german data looks weak industrial production, so on and so on.

that cyclical headwind for the economy hein europe which is weaker than the u.s., could be a problem. >> nick, you brought ten key charts to track for us we will not have time to get through all of tempehem. chart number three can earnings takeover the heavy lifting for multiple expansion 2023 was all about growth and inflation. this year is going to be about earnings will they disappoint or won't they >> exactly if you look at global equities, the last 12 months with a 15% return which has come from multiple expansion earnings, delivered earnings not the forward expected, but the actual company profits has been negative. it has been a drag on the total return the yquestion is what happens the consensus for s&p and looking for 11% growth this year

for the world index which is looking for 10%. a double digit earnings growth and we feel that is too aggressive. >> are you buying the notion we are rotating out of the majors which have led 2023? tech being one of those. are you buying that rhetoric at what point do we believe that considering the first couple days doesn't see that? >> we will see markets move defensively. cyclicals does well last year. it was a risk-on year with assets a lot of the reassessment with the fed going with the aggressive cuts priced in for the year i just wonder if we start to see it we have the good news on the rate cuts, but continued to that, we have the bad news on the slowing economy. that may be the bet the stock market looks at more. >> what does the market look for? >> i think earnings are key. i think corporate profits are key. right now, the markets said we

will get the rate cuts it is great for discount and equities we have seen that. the counter side to that is we also see weaker profits. that is when the stock market likes to get concerned. >> we only had time for one chart. come back on the show. we'll talk about some of the other charts japan, for exam mple, you are bullish. nick nelson at absolute strategy thank you. coming up on the show, the first contest of the 2024 u.s. presidential election kicks off today with the iowa caucus we will have the latest from the states after this short break. i'm andrea, founder of a boutique handbag brand - andi

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buy one footlong in the app, get one free. it's a pretty big deal. kinda like me. order in the subway app today. u.s. lawmakers proposed a stopgap budget measure to avert a government shutdown for a few more weeks chuck schumer will put forward a resolution to extend funding until early march. republican and democrat leaders have only five days to get the $1.66 trillion spending deal passed into law.

funding for some parts of the government is set to expire this week voters in iowa are preparing for today's gop caucus the first contest of the 2024 presidential election. it is a key test for support for republican candidates. donald trump secured a lead in the most recent nbc news poll of the state, but ron desantis and nikki haley are trying to position themselves as the main challenger lou luken is joining us. it doesn't seem to tell you who the frontrunner or the winner, i should say, but it can offer some inn tremenintricate detail >> it is not a story about donald trump, but can nikki haley have a strong enough

second place win to propel into new hampshire and south carolina and solidifies her status as a threat to donald trump >> if there is a threat and she comes through, what does that say for ron desantis, who, for the longest time, was touted to be the biggest rival of donald trump? >> a year ago, desantis has been ahead in the polling, but he has really faded to nikki haley's benefit. if ron desantis does not have a strong night and he comes in third or a very weak second, he is probably out of the race and it becoming a two-person race. nikki haley ngagainst donald trump. >> would a weak second not mean nikki haley has a weaker third as well? does that put her in greatest backseat >> the second is nikki haley and

ron desantis tying, but far behind donald trump. the number for trump to hit is 50%. he is polling at 50% if he comes out of the race ahead of 50% in iowa, i think he has very he strong tailwinds heading into new hampshire if he comes in at 45% and haley has a strong night, the game changes. >> let's assume nikki haley comes out on top assume that desantis will have to drop out because the poll numbers are not right or because he doesn't have the financing. what will nikki haley have to do to step up her game to really compete with trump one strategy she won't pursue is overtaking trump on the right. desantis has tried that. >> nikki haley is the anti-trump candidate and moderate republican she is trying to appeal to independent and suburban voters and better educated voters

that benefits her in new hampshire. that is the nature of the elect tel eleel electorate if she can breakout in south carolina, i think she has a trajectory to become the nominee. if she can't, she is done and it is donald trump. >> so far, trump last year and this year, has been a tough on trump. everything has not hurt him on the contrary, it has helped him with the indictments and the colorado supreme court saying he is not eligible to appear on the ballot whatever the supreme court does, how key will that be going forward? >> my sense is the supreme court will probably say that donald trump should be on the ballot. it is up to the states to make

that decision. donald trump, you are right, has been effective in using these legal and logistical setbacks to fund raise and rally his base. the challenge for donald trump is the strong base which is 30% or 40% of the republican base. to win the election, he has to appeal to independent and moderate voters. can he do that given his position and stance on the policy issues? >> can i ask a basic question? trump rureturning to the white house. is that good or bad for the markets? with taxes, but markets never like uncertainty what do you think? >> i think for markets, the fear of donald trump is a bit overblown. he will pursue a low tax anti-regulation agenda which he did in the first term. it is not bad for markets. it will depend on what happens in congress. is there a check and balance if the democrats control the

house and republicans control the senate, then it is a check on trump that is actually stable for markets that the point >> the court cases haven't necessarily done anything to taper his support. it has dgalvanized him i know we are talking iowa caucus, but biden looks at this and says how do i run? even the bad stuff isn't bad for donald trump >> president biden will target the independent, middle of the road voters, who may be turned off by the legal issues. he is doing this he is making a case for donald trump being a threat to the institution. we have to avoid donald trump at all costs. >> if you say, as you stated before, the markets are overdoing the threat of donald trump, are you a buyer of

equities >> we think there is a strong fiscal outlook in the united states the bills which passed in the last couple years with the infrastructure bill and chips act, all of those with the i.r.a. are pumping a lot of money in the american economy. we feel it is a strong outlook. >> what if trump repealed that >> this comes back to the question if democrats control the house, he won't be able to repeal the bills if the republicans control the white house and house and senate, we have a different scenario where they will try to repeal some of the bills >> that is where the jobs have been created in the red states with the i.r.a that would be unwise >> that is the rationale to create jobs in red sdats states. some republican lawmakers say you have 20,000 jobs in my district >> appreciate the time we will catch up on what exactly

happens later this evening coverage from davos kicks off today. we have circle ceo jeremy allaire joining us and the imf managing director joining us as well the interviews are at 1:00 cet. that is it for the show. it was an honor and pleasure to host with you. we'll do the same tomorrow i'm carolin roth >> i'm arabile gumede. stay with cnbc what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at

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