it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." we begin with wall street kicking off a new week in the red after the long holiday weekend. why fed speak and middle east tension could dictate the next move today. and in washington, law make irre ers are looking to get a stopgap bill approved by the deadline. and former president trump projected to win in the iowa caucus.

and the crisis at boeing deepens and the asian carrier reportedly gets set to launch its investigation. and later in the show, houthi rebels step up attacks in the red sea as regional risk grows systemic it's tuesday, january 16th, 2024 you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange. i'm frank holland. let's get you ready to start the day with the check on the u.s. stock futures with the nasdaq riding a six-session win streak and s&p trading at the highest level since january of 2022. things are red across the board. the dow would open 170 points lower. we are checking the bond market with the ten-year yield above 4% ahead of the busy week of fed speak and economic data. more on that in a moment you see the benchmark above that

4% mark. that is a key level with bonds. we are looking at energy and specifically oil it continues to grow as the houthi rebel red sea issues continue wti is up at this hour. europe kicking things off in the red at this hour look at the markets over in europe we are seeing them all down .50% across the board the dax is down .75% following a mixed session for asia with the japanese stocks snap an eight-session win streak the shanghai is the only indices in the green up .25% you see the hang seng down more than p2% that is the set up we turn attention back home

busy week for wall street with the earnings and fed speeches on tap. we get results from goldman sachs and morgan stanley and tsmc and a number of other names. on the economic side, we get retail sales and consumer sentiment figures and housing starts and existing home sales as well as weekly jobless claims we are getting the latest fed beige book and peekspeaking of central bank, we have more speakers before the blackout period we have our latest guest with us. >> good morning, frank >> the dow would open up 170 points lower what do you make of that >> we have been saying everything is taking the qs off the bond market. the yield is higher and the equity markets are under

pressure bonds are not diversifying stocks like they used to it has been 5% to well below 4%. it is coming back to 4%. we think there are a lot of good yields with the short end of the curve. we think the long end settles at 4% when yields are heading higher, that's when you put pressure on stocks. >> according to your notes and research, you believe that most of the action in the markets boils down the moves in the bond the ten-year bond above 4% t how that is influencing the market >> you mentioned the fed speak and what is coming from the fed means people are saying we get three cuts from the fed. the market got ahead of itself saying it will be six. we need six cuts to have a good market that's not our view.

our view is the key line from the fed is they have taken risk off the table. if things weaken, they will cut. you mentioned the thursday jobless claims the highest indicator we get every week that has been very strong. you haven't really seen a lot of layoffs. if you keep getting strong economic data, you might not get the fed cut. you can still have a good market because the economy is good and earnings are well under the scenario you don't have to see the fed cut six times to have a good market they took off the stubborn keeping rates too high for too long >> looking at the chance of a cut survey coming up in march. the bitcoin etf is something where your company is involved how do you see this asset class going forward? >> there is a lot of speculation of what drives the bitcoin prices we have been offering direct

exposure in wisdom tree app. a lot of people want to do self custom and a lot of people want to be involved in the brokerage account. if you don't want to own your own account, you can buy it in your brokerage it will bring more advisors into it it is a currency that can be used like gold it travels around the world. it is used they want a stable source of value. you can bring it with you anywhere on your phone that's the benefit for people who think the flows will drive the price, it is a good etf and slew of etfs. >> quite a few jeremy schwartz, thank you for your time. turning attention to washington lawmakers are racing to get a stopgap spending deal finalized reaching agreement over the weekend to keep the government

running into march chuck schumer and mike johnson agreeing to cap the spending for the 2024 fiscal year at $1.6 trillion that number is about $70 billion more than conservative leaders want lawmakers have until saturday to get that approved. we will have the latest from washington later on in the hour. now is a time for the check of the corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> frank, good morning apple is planning to remove its blood oxygen sensing feature from the apple watches to get around the sales ban on the devices if the appeal of the ba fails. this comes as the market cap closed below microsoft for the first time in more than a year on friday and now it is set to open at that level this morning. we're going to keep going.

microsoft is starting to have small businesses which pay for 365 premium or businessscrio copilot for $30 per person per month for up to 290 licenses individuals using microsoft 365 personal can also subscribe to copilot for $20 per month. elon musk is posting on x that he wants 25% of voting control on tesla that is up from 13% stake. he said i am uncomfortable growing tesla to be a leader in a.i. and reboobotics to have 25. that is enough to be influential. he said unless that is the case, i prefer to build products outside of tesla.

tesla's stakeholders. >> silvana, thank you. coming up, more to come on "worldwide exchange," and the one word investors have to know today. why the results on the island of taiwan are set to have implications for companies and investors. plus, houthi rebels step up attacks in the red sea despite the u.s. warning why a growing number of economists say this risk could turn systemic. another list of bank results is released this week. the one name we need to watch. all that when "worldwide exchange" returns. so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing,

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "worldwide exchange." market flash for you we are watching shares of boeing and the hurdle of getting past the current crisis "wall street journal" is reporting china southern airlines conducting new safety inspections of the boeing fleet. those checks come as they await new jet deliveries from boeing the chinese regulator is urging other airlines to inspect the 737 max jets no chinese airline ts that fly e variant which involved the alaska airlines blowout.

boeing will inspect the 737 production line with the work done at spirit aerosystems. 2024 means half of the world's population is heading to the polls. taiwan elected lai as the new president. he is not viewed favorably by china for past comments of taiwan independence. we have eunice yoon joining us with the latest from beijing eunice, it has been a muted response from china? >> reporter: that is right, frank. lai won in a three-way race. he got most of the votes, but not the majority the party, the dpp, lost ground in the laegislature beijing is fixated on the fact that lai did win and dpp beijing believes both of them at some point wanted to declare independence for taiwan.

lai has not said he has no plans to do this even so, the response from here has been the chinese government saying the dpp doesn't represent mainstream public opinion in taiwan the dpp doesn't change the trend of the motherland. essentially, being unified and state media has gone further saying the dpp must accept the inevitable trend of what they describe as reunification with china because the communist party is part of china for investors, we expect more of the same and continuation of the china policy toward taiwan under the dpp. for the next several months, especially until the inauguration in may, expect to see more military intimidation and hostile rhetoric likely not a lot of dialogue with the dpp potentially some economic steps

as retribution for the election results, frank all of that leading to potentially more conflict if you are in the government or business >> you mention potential for more conflict. i want to ask the ruling party, dpp, it lost some ground in the elections. what does it mean for the relations with china >> reporter: it is really interesting. it does say that the dpp hasn't been as interesting for the population at the same time, we still don't really know what this means for beijing. probably not a whole lot since beijing is fixated on how much they loathe the dpp. lai and the current president wen. they likely will not change. at the same time, it is unclear how the dpp would dgovern with

the third party gaining ground we could see them working with the third party coalition. they could still dpofgovern the island. >> eunice yoon, thank you very much let's talk more about the impact on the relationship between china and taiwan leading up to the inauguration in may and how it impacts the leadership with beijing and washington with we have dewardric mcneal with more >> good morning, frank >> let's touch on this the new president won't be inaugurated until may. there is time before that happens. how will this impact chinese and taiwan relations and longer term with the u.s. and china re rela relations? >> that is a good question, frank. as eunice suggested, we see moderate responses from china. i think we are in what i call

await, watch and warn period, leading up to the may inauguration for sure. there ais plenty of time for things to go off the rails china will have a muted response in the near term they don't woulant to destroy te spirit from san francisco. the meeting with president biden and xi jinping to maintain dialogue i think we have some conditions in place for muted reaction and response over the short term for businesses, frank, to eunice's point, this does nothing to change the uncertainty with the taiwan scenario businesses should -- >> following on the spirit on san francisco, sorry to cut you off, the muted responses to the elections and the u.s. vocal about the support for the

elections there. at the same time, we saw the taiwan weighted index close higher it is lower today. give us a sense for investors the view of the risk and where it sorts itself out? >> frank, the long-term chinese economy for production and manufacturing means there are taiwan scenarios that can disrupt what we see hein terms the global supply chain. foxconn. we have seen all sorts of issues with respect to china looking for reasons to punish foxconn for taxes. i think there are a lot of different scenarios that are still at play here china holds a lot of cards investors should be aware of the possibility for china to strike back. >> according to your data, 40

national elections this year it represents 41% of the population 42% of global gdp. u.s. election in november included how should this view the outlook for 2024 >> this is a time where geopolitics remains key for investors to focus on. there are a lot of elections a lot of elections could cause some stability itcssues when you look at the u.s. election to the global economy investors have to keep this in mind as we move throughout 2024. >> dewardric mcneal, thank you >> thank you. with rates pulling off recent highs, a housing check is on in what is the fastest growing market in terms of home prices a check of the economy with diana olick is coming up next.

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season is starting earlier diana olick is joining us with the latest diana, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, frank. we started hearing from agents a week ago of the surge in interest from pewer from buyerd sellers. the 30-year fixed hit 8% in october and started coming down in november and sharply in december it is now 6.69%. despite 4 inches of fresh snow and freezing temperatures over the weekend, buyers showed up to this open house in detroit on saturday the renovated home is listed at $254,000 well below the median price nationally, but it is the key to get this woman out looking >> i have a home in georgia. that finance rate i got back when the market crashed. i know i'll never get 4%

i don't want 9%. it is not a credit card. it's a house >> reporter: the fannie mae survey states that consumers think the rates will drop it year they are trying to get a jump on the competition. there is still not a lot for sale, but sellers will get in the game because of lower rates. >> because rates have changed somewhat and sales are feeling more comfortable with putting more homes on the market it is not as reflective as of this moment. as we inch and get closer to the spring, more homes will come on the market especially in the beginning of the year >> reporter: the wild card is prices they are still rising and the gains are accelerating detroit is now seeing the fastest price appreciation of any major city in the country. it beat out miami for the first time frank. >> that is surprising a lot of people i know detroit well. the city having a renaissance

there. diana, i want to ask rates are coming down, but so are rents. how does that impact demand for new home sales >> reporter: it gets more competition out into the market, of course, because people are able to save a little bit. it says to people if i don't have to pay the higher rents, maybe i don't need to get into a home right now home prices are still high it is on both sides. it depends on the market in markets where rents are still high, people might want to get into a home. if rebtsnts come down, maybe i don't jump in right now. >> diana olick, thank you. let's check on the headlines with nbc's frances rivera. she's in new york with the latest frances, good morning. >> frank, good morning let's start in iowa with the first result of the election cycle for 2024 nbc news projects that donald trump won the iowa caucuses. competing first step to putting him on the path with a rematch

with joe biden ron desantis won second place. the fourth place finisher, ramaswamy has dropped out of the race. and the deep freeze in the country. winter storms have been linked to ten deaths. there are over 1,000 flights canceled. and the eagles will not make a return trip to the big game this year. the final match up for the wild card weekend, they had their wings clipped by the buccaneers. philly found the end zone once and baker mayfield threw for three touchdowns in the playoff performance. you are up to date, frank. back talk. >> thank you, frances. as we head to break, fedex is announcing the new platform it is calling this a first of

its find data driven commerce platform to give you increased visibility of the package in transit and streamline returns however, the company says it is not a marketplace like the services that amazon and walmart provide. it will not provide details until this fall. fedex is under the transformation to turn the giant into one operating company first phase expected to be completed by june 1st. more "worldwide exchange" coming up

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it is before 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area there is more ahead on "worldwide exchange. here's what's on deck, economic data annd wall street. markets coming off a winning week however, futures are in the red sounding the alarm at the global economy at the davos world economic forum. and the race is on to get a stopgap funding bill over the finis finish line days before the next government shutdown. it is tuesday, january 16th, 2024 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange."

i'm frank holland. let's start your day as we pick up this half hour with the check of the u.s. stock futures. nasdaq riding a six-session win streak you can see right here in the red across the board dow hitting the lows of the morning looking like it would open two points lower. s that nasdaq is down .75% you see the benchmark at 0.1% you see the latest in the oil market related to the houthi rebels in the red sea. wti is up almost 1%. brent crude up 1.25% it is early. we will continue to watch this action that is the setup. we turn to washington, d.c. where the lawmakers are looking to keep the federal government

funded and get the deal finalized to avoid a potential shutdown emily wilkins is here with latest emily, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, frank. speaker mike johnson does not want another short-term spending bill to keep the government funded, but he wants a shutdown less with four days left to go before part of the current funding lapses for the government, johnson announced over the weekend the agreement to kick the can further down the road buying congress more time. it would fund the government until march 1st and the other part until march 8th that will allow lawmakers time to spend the $1.6 trillion funding and divide it up between programs and agencies. johnson told the house republicans that the delay is required to complete what house republicans are working hard to achieve. an end to governance by omnibus.

it is not clear which policy wins johnson will push for in the overall spending bill. anything that can't get the support of some democrats has no chance of getting to president biden's desk johnson is under pressure from the hardline members of the conference to secure a win for republicans. the house freedom caucus tweeted the plan to pass another stopgap is quote what surrender looks like chuck schumer is also supporting the delay to early march and claiming to pass the stopgap measure today as long as the weather cooperates today the house and senate are going to need to move quickly to beat the friday night deadline. otherwise, frank, we could see a short shoutdown through the weekend. >> emily, where does this lead

us with the funding for ukraine or israel or the southern border >> reporter: that is a great question we have a group of senators trying to find the bipartisan solution on border security to unlock the votes on ukraine funding. at this point, that is not where the spotlight is as there is an urgency to keep the government open if no additional funding passes for ukraine or israel, that is not the primary concern. it is something they are working on, but it is priorities and time and this means it is a huge question mark of the an merging agreement. >> emily wilkins, thank you. turning attention to the middle east and the houthi rebels continuing attacks in the red sea despite the air attacks by the u.s. and allies latest target is a missile strike on the u.s.-owned ship in

the gulf of aden this is the 29th attack since the israel-hamas war began this as the revolutionary guard steps up attacks iran claims it destroyed the spy headquarters in iraq the latest tension in the region adding to the uncertainty for 2024 that isaccording to the new world economic forum survey showing 56% of economists expect the global economy to weaken this year. 87% who responded expect geopolitical developments to increase in the next three years. joining me now is william lee. >> thank you, frank. >> bill, a lot of global stuff going on i want to start with the u.s according to the recent research, the idea of 150 basis points in cuts by the fed this

year is realistic, but is it good cuts or bad cuts >> absolutely. priced in 100 points, but they have not priced in the distentiod distinction of good cuts and bad cuts we have a nice reduction of the adjusted interest rates. if we have the situation you talked about with geopolitical risks fly and the supply chain is threatened and energy prices destabilized and the economy tanks with stagflation rising inflation and high unemployment rates, the fed will have to cut to keep the economy buoyant. that is a bad rate cut where nobody wins. >> i want to ask the fed mandate about inflation and employment in your mind, i know you may not have an exact number, but how big of a factor are the tensions with the middle east and the red

sea and ukraine? >> economists talk to each other. geopolitical things they will leave at the side. they have to remember the following things right now, the houthi attacks are showing the u.s. is not able to really keep the shipping through the red sea safe because of that, supply chains are threatened we are not getting stable prices and the costs of importing goods is an issue. >> bill, i want to broaden this out. the pboc left the poll icy rate unchanged. we heard from the ecb with no cuts in 2024 how do the other central banks factor into the volatility we could see in 2024? >> that's a great question the central bank in china says pushing on a string will not get the economy reviving the way you

want you want steep structure reforms. ecb doesn't have 2% inflation rate we will not cut until we see 2% on the horizon although germany's economy is weakening. the central banks are keeping rates high and if the u.s. cuts aggressively, that will depreciate the dollar and destabilize prices on the import side >> bill, i want to broaden this out to the elections we saw the taiwan election over the weekend. our guest earlier said 40% of the world's gdp and those nations are having elections this year. how do that factor in? >> the taiwan election has eased off the tension with china the dpp party has been calling for independence, the fact they lost the parliamentary majority means you have a split government that is good news to everybody that means inaction. the rhetoric is there for thps

indep independence all of the other elections are raising the political risks. sometimes they are good results. in latin america, capitalism is reviving the markets are seeing a more friendly environment in key spots. >> bill, i want to bounce breaking news off you. it is crossing now china economy grew 2% in 2023. the lowest growth rate in just about 30 years what do you make of the news coming from davos from the chinese premier? >> that means they have really pumped the economy with public spending if you dig into the numbers, you find private sector spending is crashing like crazy and they are making up for it with the public infrastructure spending. the chinese economy is not healthy. >> bill lee, milkin chief economist. thank you. >> thank you >> catch our coverage from davos

coming up on "squawk box" including bank of america's brian moynihan coming up, bracing for another round of bank results. the signals facing the sector and which bank our next guest says is in position to ride out any storm. more "worldwide exchange" coming up in just a moment.

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exchange." goldman sachs and morgan stanley will report in under two hours today. the key to the report is the investment of banking division with goldman posting losses. investors will listen to comments for the leadership. david solomon has been under pressure due to the series of strategic missteps and morgan t stanley will discuss as well let's talk about this with nancy. good morning great to have you here >> thank you, frank. >> nancy, as we see the second week of bank earnings, what are you looking for and what did you make of what we saw last week? >> particularly with the big banks, goldman sachs and morgan stanley, we are looking at the deals gore forward

one of the things we heard from jpmorgan chase was some optimism on deal flow picking up. we know that deal flow was bad last year. we know the numbers were down in the 20% range. we are seeing an improvement on the m& a front particularly in healthcare we think it is likely to hear optimism about that and optimism on the ipo front going forward that would be good for the stocks as that is an excellent business for them. in addition from goldman, we want to hear about the consumer business where they made a lot of missteps. we need to hear how they get out of the businesses. >> you mentioned the consumer business one metric is net interest income what is your expectation with that you mentioned the consumer business bank of america net interest income was better than people expected big consumer bank. what do you make of that >> the consumer right now is

pretty good. the banks are not having as many issues with their mix with deposits and assets and liabilities as they were earlier in the year. we have seen that improve although it is still negative. we are concerned with all of the banks that the expectations for 2024 might be ahead of themselves for when net interest income is going to bottom. we are concerned on the regional bank side as they are more aggressive with expecting rate cuts and net interest income to turn around sooner we think it will continue to improve modestly it is probably in the second half of the year as opposed to the first half of the year >> let's talk about the holding of treasuries for all of the banks. a big story last year following the collapse of svb. what is the outlook with unrealized losses in that area >> it shouldn't be as big of a problem right now.

obviously, the inversion in the yield curve subsided a bit it seems we are heading toward a more normalized yield curve because the short rate comes down with inflation continuing to come down we think there is less of a risk right now. we are keeping our eyes out very much on what is happening on the inflation front because that is what causes that inversion to st steepen and weakness in the economy and that could be negative with the holdings of treasuries that these banks still have again, not expecting anything dire right now it is something to watch. >> we have mixed reads with inflation which is slightly hotter cpi is cooler than expected. ppi. it is leading me to the next question how does the fed factor into the outlook with the banks the market is picturing up to six rate cuts. the fed guided to three. how important are those cuts to your outlook and the in

investability of banks >> today it is important we saw a nice rebound in most of the banks. we have seen the expectations come up where the banks seem to be discounting the rate cut on wall street. we are more in the camp of believing the fed that there will only be three rate cuts although valuations and banks are attractive, we don't think we will see any multiple expansion until we start to see that net interest income improve, which would be back year earnd we think the short-term risk in banks might be a little bit more on the downside. we would stick with high quality banks as we play that here >> nancy prial, thank you very much. ahead on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to know

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." it's time for the "wex wrap-up." china southern airlines is planning to conduct safety inspections of the boeing fleet. the checks could delay deliveries of more jets from the aerospace giant. more trouble for the stock as wells fargo downgrades boeing from buy to equal weight. apple is removing the blood oxygen series from the 9 and

apple 2 watches to get around the sales ban of the devices if the appeal of the ban fails fshlgs . >> and vodafone teaming up with microsoft. small businesses that pay for 365 premium can now subscribe to copilot for $30 a month. microsoft overtook apple on friday as the highest rated company. and elon musk is uncomfortable growing the business without approximately 25% of the stake musk owns 411 million of tesla's 3.2 billion shares that is roughly a 13% stake. uber is shutting down drizly

in a statement, uber says it will stop operations in march as they streamline business into one single app. the dolphins and chiefs game setting a record with the average of 23 million viewers on peacock. the numbers blowing past the previous record of 15.3 million during the game last november with the sea walkhawks and cowb. and what to watch this morning is aa and taiwan semi. in d.c., a potential government shutdown looming with the funding expiring on friday night. the big event this week is the davos world economic forum we will have live coverage with the interviews with the ceo of bank of america, intel and chevron and qualcomm starting in a few minutes on "squawk box." let's get a check of the

week which is shaping up as we look at futures in the red looking at the dow off the lows. it would open 180 points lower nasdaq under pressure this morning. joining me now is courtney garcia at payne capital management could yo courtney, thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> how do you see today shaping up what is your wex word of the day? >> skepticism. the markets are born are pessimism and grow on skepticism we are clearly going in the skepticism tase. we were pessimistic last year. they are not putting their money where their mouth is cash was up last week.

investors are not ready to put their money in markets have having a hard time after a strong end to last year. that is all the more reason to have the cash on the sidelines if inflation comes down, you will see that come off and go back into the markets. it is having a false start here. >> you see that long term. the s&p peaked in positive territory. it will open up negative for today's opening bell what happened to the broadening of the market so many people were talking about >> i don't think it is that abnormal we had a fantastic run from october to the end of the year you see that pull back you see earnings starting. that will be the focus this year where there is a lot of optimism with artificial intelligence you will want to see that reflected into earnings and profits. you will see investors take a

bit of a sideline until the earnings are shaping up. we are seeing that starting. you will start to see more reflection of that as we go forward. you just need to see more numbers. >> courtney, you are saying investors are on the sidelines according to the data from the investment company, it is $6 trillion on the sidelines. it is more than a little bit as you see that money coming off the sidelines, i'm sure your clients are in that group, where would you allocate money >> we are making sure we very broadly diversified portfolios we are taking profits from the magnificent seven companies that did well last year we are adding to small caps. energy and real estate some of the interest rate sensitive sectors. we are adding there. we are seeing a lot of people with cash on the sidelines that is not what we are recommending the first thing that will reflect down is the money market funds. you do not want to sit those with the risk where you reinvest

into lower rates on the safety side of the f portfolio, you want to extend duration on the bonds to lock in the rates that are available sitting too much in cash is not a good long-term strategy. we are talking to our clients about that. >> since 1925, almost 100 years, the s&p average return in an election year over 11% you don't want to have that money on the sidelines courtney, thank you for being h here. >> thanks. one more look at futures before we let you go futures have been under pressure all morning long the dow opening up 200 points lower. nasdaq under pressure, but off the lows of early this morning as well. we have to see how the action starts at the opening bell it is very early we're going to leave it there. futures are solidly in the red "squawk box" in davos is coming up next. thank you for watching

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good morning the futures are slightly in the red at this hour to kickoff the holiday shortened trading week we have two reports coming up. morgan stanley and goldman sachs. apple drops some features to get around the ban it has a rare discount for the iphone. detformer donald trump take iowa it wasn't even close it is tuesday, january 16th,

2024 in a land far, far away "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are have a special edition for you. we are live from the world economic forum in davos, switzerland. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. >> welcome back to davos >> not a green jscreen >> it is beautiful >> why outside this is why. it's worth it. we have heaters. we'll make it. >> and hot tea. >> you have thermals on. >> we have this guy. he doesn't care. he doesn't wear a at