and precision agriculture, around where machines are being kept on large farms. >> if you get a flat tire, crash your tack or the, somebody will show up. i know that's not what it does >> all right anyway, stocks finishing the day lower. that's going to do it for us at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money.here's what's on tap tonight. the waller warning the fed governor suggesting the central bank will be modest in its rate cuts this year. his commenting sends stocks dropping and yields and the dollar rising. so, should investors brace for more hawkishness out of the fed z and what it will mean for markets? plus, grounded shares of spirit airlines closing at a record low as its merger with jetblue gets called back to the gate the impact it's having on other airlines and how to trade that

industry later on, gold stocks losing their luster as the miners see their worst day since february a semi standout, with amd trading close to record highs, and then cannabis stocks get a green light. we'll debate all of those topics coming up. i'm dominick chu in tonight for melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq market side. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, dan nathan, guy adami, and rebecca patterson. we'll start with that sea of red on wall street today the dow dropping nearly 400 points at its lows, though it closed well off those levels the nasdaq ending a six-day winning streak the moves coming at the be benchmark ten-year treasury yield jumped, as christopher waller sparked uncertainty over interest rates

waller saying cuts are likely to happen this year, but indicated the fed should take its time in bringing those rates down. it counters the street's hopes for more aggressive rate cuts throughout the course of this year so, how seriously should investors take waller's warning? guy, let's start with you. >> well, great to have you here, dom. thanks for filling in. people should be happy, i think, that fed rate cuts are not going to happen as soon as the market anticipates. quite frankly, it's when you start cutting rates is when you have to worry about the market but i think they should be worried. so much has been priced in on the rate cut front, and you think, maybe we're getting a bit ahead of ourselves there should be a concern, and the move in ten-year yields sort of backs that up. >> the whole idea that the rate cut picture, we heard so many times, people say, investors are over their skis with regard to forecasting for this how over their skis are they right now and did this do anything -- >> great met or the on a snowy

day in new york. >> exactly >> i know what you're doing. >> if we just go back four months, that move from 4% to 5% and back to the 4%, investors have been turned around on both sides. and here we are, the s&p 500 is basically unchanged on the year, right after having a pretty good year last year, closing very near all-time highs, given all the uncertainty about expected cuts so, when you look at seeing the movement today in the treasury market and yields up ten basis points off of those lows, you say to yourself that investors are not prepared for a push out of that march cut, which i think the cme fed funds tracker is pricing still about a 65% probability of that happening. so, if those cuts get pushed out, what does that mean for equities where they are right now? what does it mean for s&p 500 earnings, if we have inflation start to pick back up a little bit? if we have supply chains disrupted by what's going on in the red sea and some other geopolitical hot spots around the world? crude oil seems to be, found a

little bit of a bottom here, around 70, so, to me, i think the only thing mispriced are equities and expectations. >> we were talking for the longest time, rebecca, about this notion, traders and investors all across wall street had metaphorically declared victory over inflation, and that was the reason why interest rates were moving the way they were are there signs in the commodities market, signs elsewhere that maybe inflation shouldn't be declared dead just yet? >> well, i think to your point, if things worsen in the red sea or the middle east generally, and that effects perceptions around oil supply and freight prices, transportation prices, both of those things are risks, and waller mentioned that in passing today. so, certainly there's a risk that way the market has been pricing in too many rate cuts in my opinion for quite some time. i think it's still mispriced maybe if inflation continues to trend down we get three 25-basis

point cuts, but 150 cuts is egregious, and waller and others have been trying to walk that b back it is so interesting to me that the fed funds features refuses to shift on that so, that is a headwind, but the other piece of the puzzle we have to watch is the consumer. last year, the fed's tightening, but equities still did well, broadly, not all of them, broadly, because consumption was so strong. so, there's two legs of the stool here to watch. not a very sturdy stool, but you know what i'm saying if the consumer can stay resilient, even if fed funds doesn't come down that fast, it might not be a bad year for stocks, but you really do need the resilient moderating consumer and inflation that continues to trend if we're going to see double-digit eps growth >> tim, the fourth quarter, very much about megacap technology, media, and telecom that so-called magnificent seven, really taking off to end the year, and a lot of that is because interest rates were falling from their highs during

that span what do you make of this idea that megacap tech, including microsoft, which hit a record high today and nvidia hit a record high today, why are they outperforming still >> i just think it's a comfortable place, even if you believe a broader equal weighed s &p is strong, that, to me, is the debate it's not, do i not own them this year talking about microsoft, the same day that apple tested the 200-day to the downside, on a day when it looks like there's not going to be a lot of support on some of these, at least anti-trust dynamics around the apple store, but you know, back to the waller comments and rebecca brought it up on our call, i just think -- he kind of highlighted that this time is different. i know you hear that all the time, but without an economic shock, you know this is different. there's a reason why the fed has jumped in as aggressively as

they have and this moment in time in terms of fighting inflation is very different. therefore, dan pointed out, we went from 8 t0 to 65. we're not going to get five, six cuts it does get back to earnings and an earnings season that really is about to start taking off if we're going to get is 11%, 12% eps growth in '24, it's going to need megacap tech to do something, and microsoft is best positioned to do that. >> guy, at this early, early stage of the earnings season so far, do you feel as though the market is ready for the expectations that have been set forth in terms of where we will see earnings growth, not just this quarter, but in the rest of 2024 is -- in other words, are fundamental factors going to help power this market are companies going to make more money and will people buy more in stock because companies make more money >> you better hope so. i don't think it's going to happen so many of the stocks we've seen

make these moves all been predicated on multiple expansion, which is fine, if these companies grow into it but for example, we said it 100 times on the show. microsoft might be one of the three most important companies in the world, without question trades at 30 times next year's numbers. maybe 12% eps growth, the 12% revenue growth you tell me, that's gotten itself very expensive very quickly. they report at the end of the month. even the apple with the downgrades you saw, in terms of valuation, that's starting to come to fruition so, the market better hope the earnings come in if they don't, there's a long way to go on the downside. >> really interesting point you just made there, guy microsoft just overtook apple, doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot other than the fact we track that sort of stuff apple's down nearly 10% from its recent all-time highs. just hit a technical level the sentiment couldn't be worse. you had all of the downgrades, a release that's coming that nobody is excited about. can you remember the last time no one was excited about a product from apple >> guy

you have to ask guy that he's rarely excited. >> it's funny, the clock app came out recently and i -- >> finally got to him, the iphone 4 >> the sentiment couldn't be worse, by both investment and the street the flip side of that, microsoft is making a new all-time high, trading at valuations. if they don't come through with some of these generative a.i. products or the monetization and the way people expect them to, you could have a big disappointment so, those are the things that i'm keyed on, especially when you consider, we're losing components of the mag seven one by one tesla is a disaster right now. the fundamentals are bad, down 20%. apple, the jury is still out we don't know. china is a problem i saw a report over the weekend that apple is discounting their phones in china. that never happens we just lost two now we have the mag five going to have to come up with something different. >> for the china story and apple, it's been pointed out that it wasn't an across the board price cut overall, this is a promotional thing for the chinese lunar new year is

happening, it's kind of like back friday or whatever. that's one thing to watch. i'd like to go to the other end of the speck frum, which is why small cap stocks, tim, took a beating way more than the rest of the market did and what does that say about the expectation for not just economic growth, but the rate picture, as well? >> because small cap stocks are at interest rate sensitive as anybody. and to me, they are a sign of growth when i've tried to hedge things like emerging markets and growthier things that also get concerned by rate shocks, i use the iwm, so -- it's hard for me to get excited about small caps in '24, especially in a world where i think the economy, no matter what it does, whatever economic term we apply to it, i don't think it's going to do the numbers it did in '23. and trfherefore, i don't think they're going to outperform. we saw a month and a half of outperformance, which was very important for the market but back to what's going to work, i still think what worked last year for the -- for the

most part is going to be critical in '24. and today, with all this bad stuff going on, and i realize you can highlight it, say, well, nvidia and amd had their specific reasons, a couple upgrades and what not, semiconductors made all-time highs and new relative highs and this is after a ferocious run at the last part of the year to start the year with rates at one-month highs and the s&p e speckively flat on the year after a ferocious two-month rally unlike any we've seen, that's not a bad show for equities here. >> speaking of rates, let's take it down to the bank stocks now they were lower today. morgan stanley losing more than 4% after its fourth quarter results came in. goldman sachs remained a relative bright spot, up a half a percent or so to end the day the today marked the deadline for public comments on the fed's proposed changes to bank regulations in the wake of that silicon valley bank collapse last spring. the proposal would raise capital

requirements for banks with at least $100 billion in assets but rebecca, you see cause for concern if those changes take effect, because maybe or not, it's not just about the massive banks out there. >> not at all. what these regulations do is they get a much bigger swath of banks that are going to have to increase the capital they hold, and so, the risk is that you get, as michelle bowman, governor bowman of the fed put it, a possible cliff effect. you get banks that are just under this $100 billion in as sets mark that have to shrink their business, that's not good for the small businesses borrowing, or there's going to be mergers they are going to get bigger so they can get economies of scale that helps spread out the compliance costs, regulatory costs they're encouraging. so, the regulatory environment for banks right now is difficult. it's particularly difficult for the regional and smaller and community banks, because they just don't have the staff or the funds to pay to make sure they

can stay on top of these regulations and it's going to hamper their businesses. i'm not saying we shouldn't be safe of course we should. but it feels like regulations aren't as tailors as they could be or should be. >> the small banks have been talked about as a catchup trade. there's been a lot of focus on the jpmorgans, the bank of americas, the money center banks, the massive ones, and maybe some undercover banks have been left behind that was a potential source of alpha. do you think it's still the case >> no, no. i am -- i was cautious last year on them, i'm still cautious. we had a big runup in the fourth quarter on the fed pivot hopes lower interest costs, reducing lo lablt. but that's not going toe happen as quickly as people want. we have the additional regulatory burden that's coming on the smaller banks are going to continue to struggle until we truly get in that easing cycle and please lord, let us have a consumer that's resilient.

that's what the small banks need until the small banks really stabilize, the small businesses get hurt, because most of the small businesses are borrowing from smaller banks they're all tied together. >> dan, there's been a tailwind over the last few months, maybe even several months now. we talked for a long time about the inversion of the yield curve, between two-year and ten-year a percent or more to the inverted -- to the downside. it's been uninverting pretty weekly, steepening, so to speak. is that a good tail wipwind fore bank trade >> well, i think this speaks to what rebecca was saying earlier. the two-year got more in line with fed funds expect tagss, and that's why we see that resteepening the ten-year, which is probably more receptive or sensitive to what growth expectations are, it's kind of stuck here in and around 4%, and so, like to me, i -- you know, guy's been kind

of detailing this for awhile now, i think you are damned if you do, damned if you don't. if the ten-year started to fall that much lower and got to 3.8% or something like that a few weeks ago, what is that saying about growth but if we were to see the two-year kind of rise again, that means that we're kind of pushing out rate cut expectations what does that say about inflation? i think we're in a period where we're probably not going to see that thing backed on the other side of the invenn sure and guy's been tracking this, it's going to be the longest inversion of how long? >> if we make it to february, it would be the longestsince we started recording the data the resteepening is when you have to start worry, and that's where we are now historically, if you look, that's when markets take it on the chin and in terms of the banks, i'm with rebecca on this one if small and reegional banks are if life blood of small businesses and small businesses are slowing down, we talked about the new york fed manufacturing number, which was a disaster, nine times worse

than what the street was expecting, that's a problem. if the consumer is in trouble, that by definition means the economy's in trouble >> real quick on positioning in banks, by the way. i don't think it's very helpful, either i was looking at the bank of america fund manager survey, and banks are now in overweight. you went from this period where everybody hated banks to, look, an environment that should have given banks a chance to catch up, and may still, again, a fed that's not overly aggressive and maybe gets somewhere in between what fed funds are doing and what really will happen, should be good for banks. and again, normalizing the rate environment, i think, everything from mortgages to consumer credit, that's interesting, but again, back to positioning, positioning right now in banks is not your friend in that i think people are overweight. >> all right, speaking of consumer and health, they do spend money on travel and leisure, we know that much let's talk about spirit airlines those shares plummeted today, with shares nearly slashed in

half, because a federal judge is blocking jetblue's acquisition of the budget airline, arguing the deal is anti-competitive and would hurt, who else, consumers. so, cnbc's phil lebeau has the latest here. phil, this was one that was going to get a lot of scrutiny to begin with. why even go through with this and what happens now >> those are all the questions that we asked of jetblue and spirit when they agreed to this in july of 2022. well, here we are. and the judge has said, look, i'm looking out for those spirit customers who like the low cost model. so, as you take a look at this deal, it basically, the judge is saying, this is not good for cost conscious flyers. j jetblue and spirit is assessing, what is their next step? do we want to appeal there's no guarantee you may have a different outcome but it raises the question, what happens with the airlines away from the big four? delta, american, southwest,

united they've got two-thirds of the market in the u.s. and then you have alaska at 6.4% if jetblue and spirit had merged and it went through, they would have had 10.5% of the market as it is,000 you have two companies that are looking at what their next options are jetblue's breakup fee, $70 million, if you look at the stocks going back to the proposed merger date, back in july of 2022 the reason spirit is off so much, dom, is because now there's talk about, hey, is it possible these guys might file for bankruptcy and liquidate quickly, also take a look at shares of alaska and hawaiian this is a proposed $1.9 billion merger alaska and hawaiian both said, our merger is different, different dynamics involved here, different market, we still feel good that this deal will go through. and also want to switch gears and talk about boeing. here is the latest getting a lot of questions today about this the max-9 inspections. there are 40 of the grounded planes that the faa said, look,

we want to do further inspections here we believe most of those inspections have been done question now is, when do we get some kind of results, if you will, from the faa and independent adviser was named by boeing to do a quality control check on the company, he'll report directly to ceo dave calhoun and this is in addition to the faa plank its own audit of boeing's manufacturing processes. that prompted wells fargo to downgrade shares of boeing it said today, matthew akers, the an lishgs say, given ba's track record and great incentive for the faa to find problems, we think the odds of a clean audit are low. and remember, as you look at shares of boeing, forget about a lot of the noise that's out there about whether or not there's quality control issues, that's not just noise, but fur investors, what you care about is the process of manufacturing maxes. you're at 38 a month right now, boeing's target is to get up to 50 a month that drives cash flow, and that's the key to shares moving

higher that's why the stock is now havering at 2$00 spirit continues to be under pressure, spirit aerosystems another rough day today, down more than 4% dom? >> all right that's a lot to digest phil lebeau, thank you very much we'll see you soon dan nathan, which -- where do you want to start? >> well, i want to get tim's take on boeing here, this is a name that you know so well, and you've seen these cycles, right, over the -- five years now are you surprised, on a day like today, off the news like today, we really thought that 220 level would make some sense? >> i think on sentiment, and certainly on consumer sentiment, even though they're not buying these planes, and i think the story here is -- and "the journal" had an interesting article, boeing has been outsourcing for years now, key components and rebuilding these

planes, and that was an attempt to save money. and ultimately, the sum of the parts really don't change, and this is one of the biggest problems so, back to the max-37, wlhether it's the 9, the 8, the horrific problems 0 a few years back, this is a story where no question that the faa does have -- the wells fargo downgrade makes sense to me. i still think this is a free cash flow story. my inclination as an investor is to wait this one out i believe this company's act x actually moving in the right direction. and what was going to be $12.50 by '25, maybe that's '26 you have been given a significant discount this stock was on the move, and i realize this is a very significant change and the dynamics, again, around manufacturing may have to change for boeing at a cost at a cost to free cash flow. you probably don't need to chase it here, but at a time when people are looking for interesting stories that i think are in companies that aren't going anywhere in the long-term this is one. >> all right, guy, i'm going to stick with this boeing, because

we've opened it up here for one conversation aerospace and defense is what boeing does. the defense side of things is, perhaps, you could argue, in a very good macro tailwind, given what we're seeing around the world right now. is there going to be an emphasis at some point for investors on the defense side of the business and could it ever come close to overcoming the pr -- >> he's clearly, tailwind, we had a very similar conversation when this first happened, in terms of their defense -- their defense revenues are probably, tim knows this exactly, 38% now of overall revenue fast approaching probably 50/50 with that aerospace portion, which is a good thing, by the way. this $200, we did out on seven times normal volume. they report at the end of the month. we filled a gap to the downside that we created back in november so, a lot of reasons to start to get interested in this stock, i think. i understand all the headwinds and all the headline risk you

have, but at some point, valuation matters. >> all right, can i -- i'm going to bring up one more topic here, the spirit/jetblue deal. i'm sure you guys around the table have flown jetblue before. it's really shed its reputation as a budget airline. i mean, they have -- i flew one cross-country that had a legit first class cabin. lay flat beds and everything else the ticket prices are pretty much in line with delta, american, united, everybody else, at least to sfo. i went to go see my folks. this spirit deal, maybe there's a concern from the judge and it's legitimate. if they took this over, does this then become just another competitor airline the likes of which united, american, delta and everybody else kind of operates with right now? i wonder, tim, is that the reason why >> well, i think you're right. i think jetblue fits into that segment right now. i don't think there's any bargains on jetblue unless you happen to get it on a cold dale in wherever, whether or not

flying in the south. i actually think -- it would be the opposite of that, as i think about this i think ultimately airlines get back to a lot of cyclicality, in terms of how they're run and probably in terms of the business and we though good news for airlines is the expensive, the premium, the transcontinental, the first class thashlgs's picking up it's all we hear about from united and delta that's, to me, what i care more about, but what we always care about with airlines, they run their businesses as efficiently as possible and they're guilty of mostly not doing that especially when times get good, and that's when they go bad. >> all right. coming up, the trouble trade in china right now stocks dropping across the board as major etfs hit new multi-year lows how the taiwan election results and a rare tech giant price cut is impacting that trade coming up next. plus, amd ripping higher as the artificial intelligence trade shows no signs of slowing down but can the semisurge keep up the space? we'll debate that when "fast

money" returns we're back in two. you're watching "fast money" 'lbeig bk.bc wel rhtac but what if you. (tense music) stop! you work hard. it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank performance savings is built to put your money to work with some of the highest rates in the country. going, that's what got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?" bacon and eggs 25/7. you're darn right. solar stocks are up 20% with the additional hour in the day. [ clocks ticking ] i'm ruined. with the extra hour i'm thinking companywide power nap. let's put it to a vote. [ all snoring ] this is going to wreak havoc on overtime approvals. anything can change the world of work. from hr to payroll, adp designs forward-thinking solutions to take on the next anything.

welcome back too "fast money. chinese stocks are dropping across the board in the wake of taiwan's election results. the ruling democratic progressive party, dpp, winning a third straight win despite warnings from beijing to reject their candidate. major etfs including the fxi, the mmchi, the ewh, all hitting new at least 52-week lows. the head of the international monetary fund warning that china needs reforms to open the economy and halt quote unquote significant growth declines in 2024 rebecca, do this weekend's elections change the investment thesis for broadly speaking owning chinese equities? >> no. >> okay. >> i think china's problems right now are manmade, they're domestic taiwan is clearly very important and it's a risk we're all watching every single day now, but what's happening in taiwan is not going to significantly effect china's xheel or stock

market what's going on with china right now is the leadership there think of them like a duck. calm above the surface, but the legs increasingly paddling frantically below the surface. there's speculation from a bloomberg article today they're going to announce a trillion ultra long bond. they are only doing this four times in history this is a panic move, if they do it they are giving guidance, again, according to the media, that you can't sell stocks, they're telling local players that so, this is -- and you're seeing them on the road they're at davos, they're here on the east coast. please come ack. they're worried. but what they're doing doesn't help the domestic economy. it's increasing supply that's it. so, it's deflationary right now. not going to change what they need to change >> tim, what's the overriding narrative right now? is it still the wage war against big tech chinese government? is it the property crisis, evergrande and everybody else crisis >> yes. >> yes, yes, and yes

>> when rebecca was giving her duck metaphor, i thought we were going to go, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck china is -- it kind of works here, because we know what we're getting. the fxi, effectively chinese state operating enterprises, not the sexy high tech stuff it's performed as poorly kweb is a little more high flying and there are components that we talk about all the times in terms of baba, but i just feel that sentiment and dynamics in china are so poor, we know what the economy is structurally challenged by. i think evergrande is a very, very big deal and i think we've had a chance to reflect on china as japan goes to fresh all-time highs after 37 years and understand what a credit crisis can do to an economy and how long it takes to get through that and past that even though i've always said china can paper over a lot more problems than anybodies. >> all right, there's a lot more to come here on "fast money. here's what's coming up next

you got to see amd shares surging, as the a.i. trade stays front and center so, can semi stocks keep pumping your portfolio that's next. plus, let's take a deal in bio tech, after a record year for m&a in the space we're looking at who could get scooped up in 2024 the names our next guest is keeping an eye on, ahead you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. to advance the future of golf, pga of america chose t-mobile for business. with a 5g powered innovation hub to analyze player performance and expand coaching tools. take your business further with america's largest 5g network.

welcome back to "fast money. shares of amd topping the tape 8% in the regular session, hitting its highest levels since

november 2021. nearing an all-time high wall street is still bullish on the impact a.i.'s going to have on the space, with analysts at barclays raising their price target on amd to 200 bucks a share. nearly 26% higher than the close today. nvidia by the way jumping more than 3%. dan, what's the take here? is a.i. a runaway freight train. >> investors watching nvidia, the lack of supply, and so, they know that a lot of these buyers of the chips are looking to kind of diversify away from nvidia, they might be looking for chipper prices, too. amd chip is doing well and one of the analyst calls said, it could be $5 billion of incremental revenue, maybe $3 billion. so, this is what we saw last year with nvidia investors tripping over each other for the stock to go and go up 8% today, very near an all-time high, before we've seen the guidance or anything like that,

iwant to say, that's why you'r seeing a move like this. but if they disappoint for any reason, you're going to have the stock down 8% like that. >> guy, is the relatively safer way to play artificial intelligence, and i say relatively, is it microsoft as opposed to nvidia or amd >> i was going to say micron, which you can sort of wrap your head around, maybe in terms of valuation, though that's become a commoditized company, as well. valuation sometimes doesn't matter microsoft is probably the safer one, yes, but as i said earlier, microsoft isn't cheap here, either amd is up to 40 times next year's numbers, which may be reasonable, but if our crack staff in ec can put up a longer term chart, you can see the levels are the same ones we topped out at, i athink it was november 2021. as oversold we were, that's how overbought we are now. >> from the tech trade to bio tech coming up on the show, is there a next big deal in bio tech?

we saw a huge amount of m&a in the last year, and we want to know who is next to get bought up michael yee lays out the names he's watching and who could be prime for the picking. don't go anywhere. that interview is coming up next here on "fast money.

what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today.

welcome back to "fast money. stocks sinking to kick off the shortened trading week the dow dropping 230 points the s&p leading those losses, down nearly 0.4%. the nasdaq down, as well by the way, gold miners getting hit hard today the gdx etf down 4% what do you make of the gold miners trade guy? >> higher rates, higher dollar you lower gold knee jerk reaction is, we've been fooled, we're not going to do it again. you notice the underlying miners haves not participated, and now people are saying, gold's lost here it's not going to get through the previous highs i'm not one of those people. i think the commodity is going to prove itself. however, today, obviously, doesn't tell that tale. over in pharma, companies

were sitting on $130 billion in cash at the end of 2023. and our next guest thinks that could propel a new round, a wave of m&a activity this year. let's bring in michael yee of jeff jeffrey's. michael, last year was very much about the a.i. of health care, which was glp-1 obesity/diabetes is that still the case in 2024 >> i think that we still have a way to go on glp-1, and i still think you're going to see a wave of strategic deals in that space and related spaces, metabolism and cardiovascular i think that's the way to go the drug's just barely launched, so we have time. >> this is the total aggressive market, this is a huge pie, or could be one who is primed to take advantage of it next, if, hypothetically,

it is no longer one that people want to go with, with say eli lilly or novo nordisk? >> sure. we have been very bullish on amgen, we've said this time and time again, and i think this is going to be a huge breakout in '24 and '25, if they have great data, with a potentially monthly or postsibly quarterly maintenance drug i think the stock would be great if that works. there's smaller companies in the space, as well, like srrk, and structure, gpcr, so, a lot there, but amgen is really the big one. >> all right, we talked about this idea of m&a in 2024 and the vast amounts of cash on the sidelines from these companies. what types of companies, if it's not glp-1, could be the target more so of bio tech m&a this coming year? >> so, i think that if you listen to all the comments last

week, we had a great note out about that, you have a bunch of companies saying that, first, m metabolic, cardiovascular, you think about the cash coming in and the sales forces that everything related to that is going to be important. we talked about some of those plays. i would say that in cardiovascular, names like cyber kinetics, that's been in the news recently with three different players looking at that and then also in neurology this is perhaps the second biggest unmet need as it relates to alzheimer's, parkinson, schizophrenia. quite a competitive situation going on so, if they are investing there, it says there's going to be more around the corner to leverage on that so, new rolg and oncology, always the play, imcr, approved drugs, and so a

lot to see in 2024 >> all right, it's oncology, neurology, everything else michael yee, thank you very much see you soon, sir. >> good to see you >> rebecca, what do you think? is bio tech the place to be in 2024 >> well, i think there's a couple things beyond what you all just discussed one, even if the fed doesn't cut rates as much or as quickly as expected, the fact we have steady rates, not hiking anymore very likely, that provides clarity for ceos that might be thinking about deals we heard that on our air this morning from lazard. and secondly, the a.i. theme obviously tech, bio tech, these are areas that can really, really leverage a.i., so, i think you have two tailwinds, again, in addition to a lot of cash on the sidelines, looking to go to work, that could support the sector could be other headwinds out there that the other guys here on the desk that might want to

highlight. >> look at ibb, the level it's trading at january of '23ish, we topped out. but ibb, if you want to play the etf, vertxeex, gilead looks real interesting here i think it's about to break out. all right, coming up lighting up. a new research report out of the fda, so, what green chutes could that open -- i'm trying, guys. and dliry gone wrong why the chart master carter worthies it might be time to xis two transportation heavy weight names. mi uafr ison" "fast mey congp teth

welcome back to "fast money. pot stocks on fire today, after the fda released a scientific review that found cannabis meets the criteria for reclassification as a lower risk drug top names like cura leaf tim this is more detail than what we've seen before from regulators is this something where people can actually say, all right, maybe this is a good sign, as

opposed to a head fake like we've seen in the past >> here's why this news is important. if you reschedule cannabis, it means punitive taxation, this would unlock, $100 billion, $150 billion, it's a big ask there, because it's kind of unknown it's a game changer for an industry that, frankly, needs it it's what -- the news on friday, we actually got a chance to see a 252-page document by the fda we knew they had written this document and done this research and made a recommendation, but we got a chance to see it. and it gives a very strong endorsement why cannabis is less likely to have abuse than other mainstream drugs, but the dynamics around the history here, and that frankly, a bit of a mea culpa. it feels like this is different. and it really -- it goes back, it's a history lesson, and i think the dynamic for the industry back to the stocks, and you mentioned a bunch of stocks. the u.s. stocks, the u.s.

multinationals, multistate operators are the ones that i think should most be in the focus here, and i think as we think about the price action, and i take, say, a gti, which is the largest name, by the way, full disclosure, in my cannabis etf, this above those early september highs when this news broke. and the history here is, the recommendation came out in late august it drove the sector into a frenzy then you saw as we were waiting for information, as they usually do, without any capital in the space, loot of stocks traded lower. a handful of them, first of all, new trade well above those euphoria highs, i just think that the price action on top of the news flow, they match. and actually, the sector now is, i think, setting new foundation for a rally from here. i think this is great news, no matter when it happens. coming up, trouble in the transports is now the time to fade the fedex and ditch u.p.s. trades? we'll bring in the chart master himself for the technical tale right after th restonismo "fa mey" is back in two. and com special edition smart bed. nr

plus, zero percent interest for 36 months when you add an adjustable base. ends monday. only at sleep number. about two years ago, i realized that jade was overweight. i wish i would have introduced the fresh food a lot sooner. after farmer's dog, she's a much healthier weight. she's a lot more active. and she's able to join us on our adventures. get started at betterforthem.com we earn your trust. maintain our financial strength and stability. and deliver solutions that meet complex needs. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. ♪ ♪

partnering with every day, businessess, everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money. trouble in the transports. fedex and u.p.s. dropping today. the chart master says there could be more turmoil ahead in

transportation and that now -- now is the time to sell both of these names. carter worth of worth charting joining us now take us through why this is important, why you're so bearish, and what does it mean for the broader story of the market >> sure, thanks, dom i mean, what we know, and before we look at any tables or charts, is that fedex has been a great winner and u.p.s. has been a big loser. but the winner, fedex, is starting to roll and the loser, the laggard, has come roaring back to life, and that is a problem. so, this table depicts the perfe fedex having triple the performance, and u.p.s. down let's look at that in chart form and the lines are what they are. so, the issue is, what's the problem? u.p.s. lagging, but coming to life, but let's look at the individual charts and really sort of unpack it. if we look at fedex, again, it's almost doubled, 140 to 280 and that heavy volume drop and

gap of about three weeks ago, bad news, and starting to roll so, exhibiting very poor relative strength. look at u.p.s. it's the exact opposite. it's rallied sharply 25%, 30% off its lows of four months ago, but that's just it it's rallied to a very difficult level where overhead supply comes into play. so, i don't like the winner that's rolling or the laggard that snapped back. and now, for fun, let's do the following. final chart, this is a two-panel. what this is, fedex and u.p.s., as if they were one security, equal weighed on top, and the relative performance of that two-stock basket to the s&p. so, while the two stocks, as an aggregate, are up over the past 14, 16 months, the relative performance in the s&p continues to deteriorate these are important economically sensitive companies, and i don't think it particularly is a good message for main street or for the market >> picture's worth a thousand

words. carter, thank you. guy? >> yes, sir. >> this is an interesting point that carter brings up about the relative underperformance. >> fedex problems have been fedex-specific for a long time technically, u.p.s., since january of '22, has made a series of lower lows and lower highs. 155 level, you see, this is critical support people look at fedex, see ten times next year's numbers, it's cheap from a u.p.s that's true. but value yags is never the reason to be in or out of these stocks neither one is trading particularly well. i'm with carter. >> rebecca, is transportation a harbinger of bad things to come? >> the best trades are when the fundamentals and technicals line up we have the fundamental. you're vying growth overseas china is struggling. going to get more data out of them tonight europe is likely at best to be platt this year, but most likely

is going to slow further and then at home, i think, a data point that a lot of people missed today, we had a new york fed survey on consumer spending, and when you look at what would people do if they got a chunk of new income, if they got a raise tomorrow the amount of people saying they would spend that money declined to 16% that's the lowest number since this survey started in 2015. so, consumer pulling back, slower overseas growth i think that supports the technical case. all right, there's an interesting trade developing there, thank you very much, guys coming up next, your final trade, to keep it right here

(ella) fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand... in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want,

when they want it. (jen) now we're even smarter and ready for what's next. (vo) achieve enterprise intelligence. it's your vision, it's your verizon. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.

all right, sports fans, time for the final trade. let's go around the horn tim? >> dom, rebecca, great to have you here consumer staples are interesting for '24. and i think stz sits at the top of that list >> all right, rebecca? >> i'm still worried about the smaller u.s. banks a seller of kre. >> dan >> yeah, xbi, pull-back.

i think i'm a buyer. >> and guy >> tim seal mour will be at the magic world tonight, say hi. buy him a beer gilead i think it's going higher there, dom. thank you for joining us >> thank you for having me here. and thank you for watching "fast money. we've got "mad money" with jim am cincreromg welcome to mad money. welcome to kramer. trying to make a little bit of money. my job is to entertain and explain. maybe we have a long way to correction. if that