i would not underestimate amazon's tv business -- i'm sorry, amazon's advertising business and how they're using this burgeoning tv business to expand their strength in advertising. amazon is number three in terms of the digital ad players behind meta and google, but it is growing very quickly >> indeed. julia, thank you that will do it for "overtime. "fast money" starts now. jon, thank you very much live from the nasdaq marke site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight the dimon decree what he said about what's propping up stocks, and what it could mean for investors like you. plus, china struggles. the etf that tracks the region off to its worst start to the year since 2016. the latest headlines hitting that country, and how you should trade the stocks. and later, a ford free fall. the stock erasing all of its

gains over the past month. schwab shares sink after saying profit was cut in half in the fourth quarter and insuring gains a couple of health names bucking the downtrend in today's market. we'll tell you which ones they are and how to trade them. good afternoon, everybody, i'm tyler mathieson in for melissa lee. coming to you live from the studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight, steve grasso, karen finerman, and guy adami. welcome, folks >> welcome >> you're the man, ty. >> good to be here, my friends we start with stocks trying to mount a late-day rebound major indexes all closing, though, well off their lows of the day, with the nasdaq erasing most of a 1.6% decline, ending the day down half a percent. the dow finished just about a quarter of a percent lower but take a look at rates the two-year popping nearly 12 basis points, biggest jump in over a month and closing near its highs of the day the move causing the yield curve to reinvert sharply.

and then there was this warning from jamie dimon over in davos >> i think it's a mistake to assume everything is hunky-dory. it's kind of like this drug we all feel, it's just great, but remember, we've had so much fiscal monetary stimulation, so, i'm a little more on the cautious side that we are facing a lot of things in '24 or '25. >> i just want guy to recognize that mr. dimon used a phrase i haven't heard in -- >> which is why -- >> hunky-dory? come on, tyler you use that >> i don't use it a lot. i'm telling you. but he's cool enough >> you went to school in virginia, you're a gentleman that's something you probably said >> did you see how cool he looked with just the gloves on it looks like a diamond thief. get it >> oh. >> very cool-looking go ahead

>> i look at him and i say, yeah, hunky. >> they're there with scarves and hats -- >> looks like a michelin man >> jamie's there, he's going to a spa. >> wearing shorts. >> i'm with jamie dimon. you look at the market, seems like everything is fantastic, the last couple of days not withstanding leading economic indicators down 21 months in a row money supply has been slowing, or, i should say, contracting now for quite some time. and if you look around the surface, around the edges, there are things that should be concerning through the lens of the stock market, i think people are, in my opinion, mistakenly thinking maybe we've gotten through things i think yields go higher i think there's some dark spots in 2024. and what jamie dimon said sort of galvanizing my thoughts >> the market's been down -- >> three weeks in. >> three weeks in, the game is early, but the market may be

signaling something, or is it not? >> well, i think, you know, it's always the -- you can look at glass half empty, glass half full, however you want to slice it, but you would be hard-pressed to pick a time when jamie has been positive on the economy. and i think that's what he does, right? he sets expectations very low. we don't want -- do you remember back before the financial crisis, there were a lot of people who thought we would never have a down year in the market, we would never have a down day in the market, pie in the sky people they were the ones who looked the silliest and i think because he was the one that was there at that point, he's the only one left that was there at that point, he sees things very differently than we do now, he's very realistic, so, i'm not saying that everything that he's worried about is not a fantasy or a nightmare, if you will, but to guy's point, if all these things are slowing, that, to me, means the fed did its job. i think that's actually a

positive >> landing the plane >> yeah. >> but the retail sales number was pretty good. >> yeah. they were pretty good. i think -- i'm a little bit more optimistic than things are still pretty good. i think that -- i totally agree, it's his job he's a lender, right best case, they get all the money back, for much of his business, but i think -- remember his meteorology days when he was like, moynihan was like, little storm, he was like, hurricane, tornado, whatever it was, is coming i think that's just his nature but he does bring up the good point that we haven't yet faced, which is this deficit situation. it will come home to roost, only the question is when we don't know. he seemed to think it was a couple years off i don't know i think that -- that, to me, didn't sound like dimon super pessimistic. it sounds cautionary >> you mentioned yields. >> we have gone from, listen, we've gone from 5 to 3.8, here we are, up to 4.10, so, they

have been, i think, going higher in the wake of a lot of rhetoric and a lot of people -- i watched steve liesman today in the afternoon, he's sort of in the not march camp in terms -- >> he said may >> he's probably right he might be a little early with that, as well. there's nothing compelling to me that would force them -- >> right, why? >> that's what i ask -- >> why would they do that? >> why would you cut right now you don't need to. >> you don't need to and i'm not quite sure, you know -- this level of the s and sp 500, to me, suggests the best possible outcome and i'm still hard pressed to believe we can get there. all right, let's take a little quick turn here strong data out on the housing trade today. the naah b housing market risin to its highest level since september. still, builders were largely down today in the market, with toll brothers leading the losses diana olick has the details on this morning's numbers >> hi, di.

>> hey, ty two sets of data out this morning show consumers are getting back into the housing market thanks to the recent drop in mortgage interest rates the mortgage bankers association reported that mortgage applications to buy a home jumped 9% last week compared to the previous week. they were still 20% lower than the same week one year ago but they have been rising steadily for the past few weeks. now, mortgage rates last topped out around 8% in october, and now back in the 6% range, though they did make a move higher this week to now 6.88%, and that's the highest since december 13th. in addition, we saw a big beat on home builder sentiment in january. it jumped seven points to 44 on the naahb monthly index. the street was looking for just a two-point gain anything below 50 is still considered negative, but it's moved ten points higher in two months and now at the highest level since september.

builders say it's all about the lower rates. tomorrow, we'll get a read on how this is playing into housing starts and building permits. tyler? >> all right, diana, thank you steve, what do you think here? >> so, when you did that intro, i'm looking at performance, and when you called out toll brothers, toll brothers, for the last 52-week performance, is up 76%. last three months, it's up 36% so, these -- these guys, all of them, so, if you look at pulte, kb, lennar, the lowest they've been up in the last three months has been 35%, the highest is 41%. so, i think they got what little ahead of themselves, but they've had great performance, i don't think you should throw them all out, but maybe just take a step back and let it breathe a little bit. >> what a year -- it was a bad year for them in 2022. they came back, one of the leading groups, right, of 2023 does it sustain this year? >> well, the thing that's interesting about it, i mean, it's a giant rate bet at this point, and it had that very

unusual situation where existing home -- existing homes wouldn't come on the market because the mortgages were too cheap, people didn't want to sell them that's a great environment -- >> they had a cheap mortgage they didn't want to give up. >> they had no supply and all you had was new inventory. you couldn't have created a better picture for them. but to me, it's just a giant rate bet, and if you are pessimistic, if you think rates go higher, i don't know how this sector stays elevated the way it is i do own zillow, which, you know, that -- >> real estate play. >> related, right, so, not quite as rate sensitive, but that's sort of my biggest real estate bet. >> if you think rates are going to go up, this is not where you would be putting money >> no, but i'll say this, last year, rates were going up significantly and we were across the board bullish on home builders for the reasons that karen just cited so, i understand that to a certain extent, it is a rate play, without question it's an employment play, as well if the unemployment rate starts

ticking up, that's going to billion problematic. discover financial just reported, dfs, in a word, an absolute disaster. but why do i mention it? because if you look at it, credit provisions for losses, $1.9 billion it's up a billion dollars year over year. they missed eps by a buck. $1.54 versus $2.51 across the board, they are telling a much different narrative that the consumer than maybe the retail sales today this is all part of a narrative. if ton employment rate starts ticking higher, if the consumer gets scared, the home builder stocks will no longer have that tailwind >> and just to button up this conversation, the reason the home builders outperformed, they were helping buy down the mortgage rates so, you can't do that forever. that was obviously crimping their margins, but that was manager why new home sales were more important than existing home sales for them. let's move onto energy now,

as we skip around just a bit a mixed day for crude prices, with wti and brent settling in opposite directions, as a weaker gdp print out of china stoked concerns about demand. that move coupled with ongoing concerns in the red sea have ripple effects on energy equities the oih oil services etf, there you go, your alphabet soup, dropping a half percent, touching its lowest level in six months joining us now, paul sankey, president of sankey research when you were here just a minute ago, i barely recognized you you were all bundled up. you look like one of the kansas city fans. >> yeah, freezing out theres right? >> >> so -- for much of my life, if there was anything going wrong in the red sea, oil prices shot up >> yeah. >> stuff is going wrong in the red sea and they are not shooting up. >> and it's a concern for people and we have the same thing with freezing weather and natural gas prices are not reacting that

well, so, i think it's been disappointing to oil bulls, if you want, that, you know, we've seen, as you say, a direct attack on shipping, the rerouting of shipping, so, that alone is going to cause more time for the oil to move around the world and higher costs, obviously. and yet here we are. >> here we are at prices that aren't markedly higher than they were six months ago. >> right but that's another point still at $75 brent, in excess of $70 wti, so, it's not the end of the world. these are good prices for these oil companies that really start worrying towards $60 last time maybe a couple of months ago, i was talking about, maybe saudi needs to flush this market, and in that case, they would be taking it down below $60. $75 brant, you're going to see good cash returns. >> supply is ample, right? >> yeah, because of the capacity in saudi arabia and uae. and again, this is another thing that we would never have seen 20 years ago, that you've got 102 million barrels a day of oil

demand, all-time record highs, and yet you still have 3, 4 million barrels of spare capacity >> karen >> so, you just said something about making money over $60. where does it start to be where the equities really get worried prior to $60, i would think? >> yeah, what they would do, bp changed ceo, or at least confirmed the ceo today, everything for them is planned at $60 they are guiding towards $4 billion at $60 you get that yield from bp at 60 they may pay down more debt, in the case of bp, they may pay more catch out, but essentially, $60 is the working number for the industry additionally, if you look at the marginal reinvestment, they talk about $60. so, that's why maybe we need to get below $60 to really calm down u.s. supply growth, which is essentially part of the problem with oil and a big problem, part of the problem in natural gas. too much supply from these u.s. companies that are just doing a

great job. >> steve >> so, i get all of that just help me through this process, because when i look at exxon, i look at chevron, the m&a, all four of those stocks are below where the announcement was, so, i get the whole idea, the acquirer usually trades lower, the acquiree trades higher all of them are lower, so -- we've had the times where they were correlated -- i'm trying to break the correlation between oil that could fall and the stocks that could run. >> right >> i just don't see it happening. why do you think there's been such lackluster performance out of the merger business with four names that i mentioned >> well, it's a tough one. the first thing is they paid with stock, right? so, as soon as you pay with stock, both companies become linked to one another and as the sector sold off, the price of the deal simply goes down. and we've seen many deals here at relatively low premiums why have the managements not asked nor money? partly because they can't, partly, i've got to say it, because they self-enrich, they

get change of control and you see people selling out that, you know, perhaps are going to get rich themselves. the ceo will get rich without caring too much of the premium so, that's been disappointing. but there's just not that many bids there's really only chevron and exxon that can do these kind of deals. generally speaking, these deals are just not been at great multiples, unfortunately, and that's been another negative for the sector >> you have an interesting pairs trade -- we were talking about oil companies and mergers and all of this stuff, would like to come back to that, but the pair trade is fascinating, because it's sort of two -- you wouldn't think of them together explain it >> oh, talking about tankers versus evs >> yeah. >> i always love to come on here, give you a trade we like to work -- we as analysts work thematically, and the theme is obviously tankers for reasons that you can imagine. these are div debd-paying

companies, so, very high rates translate into cash back to shareholders we like that in oil companies. >> tankers, companies like -- >> good example that we like is ardmors, but there's several that you can look at, and they're all kind of the same, to be honest, but that's one that we highlighted and then on the ev side, it's just a rolling disaster, frankly. and in the past, we've talked about shorting tesla and, in fact, i was talking about shorting ford at the time, but the question is, why don't you just short tesla that would have been a bad trade at the time. but now, tesla's obviously the standout winner in this sector, but everything else is sort of -- especially with the chinese entering the market in the way they are, it's concerning >> they're the number one maker of evs >> yeah, absolutely. and obvious, they're really batteries on wheels, so, china's position in batteries is vital for the fact -- >> they can control so much of the manufacturer from the battery through -- >> exactly >> you want to jump in >> yeah. the red sea situation, you have

to go around and, so, you have less supply and prices go up i'm wondering, though, looking at scorpio tanker, that's run so much, have we missed the run there? >> yeah, i mean, i think it is a bit of a mickey mouse trade. >> you are saying a mickey mouse trade on "fast money," you would do that? >> you know, i think that generally, these things have got a bad long-term history and reputation and aren't trusted by the market, but if you look at the structural elements, the new tankers coming on, the ability to add tanker capacity, the size of the global oil market, you know, all of these things actually point to more of a long-term structural upside for these names. very undercovered on wallstreet, almost no coverage essentially an untrusted group that looks like it's gone up a lot, but could probably do more with these current tanker rates. >> all right, paul, thank you so much >> always a pleasure >> paul sankey let's trade this whole area.

guy, why don't you -- >> there are some names, for example, paul brought this two octobers ago, marathon petroleum, it was $60 at a time, still reasonable in terms of valuation. i'll say this, as well i understand to a certain extent what's going on here, but tim talks about this, i've mentioned it, these emergencnergy compani, their balance sheets have never been better, their profitability is probably levels we haven't seen oil demand, regardless of a global slowdown, is still at pre-covid levels all things should line up for these stocks, yet, steve mentioned, you have exxon below 100, i think a lot of it has to do with people, again, looking for the technology trade, and sort of giving away the energy trade, but i do think the energy trade still should be in your portfolio. >> boy, you hear an awful lot about energy being the area where there's going to be a lot of m &a this year is there anything that tells you that or tells you the opposite of that that consolidation is coming in this market? >> well, paul just said that

there's really two big buyers out there and they've made their acquisitions could there be others, yes but when you have the m&a and both stocks trade lower, it doesn't really matter. if you look at hess, exxon, pxd, chevron, if you look at the whole group, they're all trading below all of their moving averages all of them. >> yeah. all right, folks, take a quick break here, and all hail the king analysts at bank of america gives netflix the crown in the streaming wars so, should you binge on the sovereign streamer ahead of earnings next week we'll debate that one. but first, talk about a season of giving retail sales data picking up the pace to close out 2023 very merry holiday shopping season, it seems and what it says about the consumer, when "fast money" returns. don't go anywhere. we'll be back in two you're watching "fast money"

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get over here kids. and stay time for today's lesson. wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they figured out a way to keep the internet on. yeah! -nature finds a way. [ grunt ] stay connected when the power goes out, with storm ready wifi from xfinity. and see migration in theaters now. all right, everybody, welcome back to "fast money. the consumer showing signs of

strength to finish out 2023. december retail sales numbers coming in a little bit hotter than expected. the headline number rising 0.6% from the prior month, helped by better clothing and accessory sales, as well as online shopping retail stocks mostly lower, with the xrt losing 0.6%. karen, you were pointing out ere issues here. let's start with the overall retail picture here, and how you characterize the consumer and step to that idea that you have animals. >> i think the consumer is okay, right? still employed wages are growing more slowly, but they're still growing. and there was a lot of pessimism coming into this last -- the end of last year that in the third quarter, the consumer had markedly slowed, we saw a lot of retail misses, and then -- so, i think the expectations were low. how that figures into this data, i'm not quite sure i'm long some retail mildly optimistic.

though -- my biggest bet is in luxury, which isn't great. today was particularly not g great. >> biggest bet on the long side. was luxury >> right but interesting -- >> lvmh, those guys. >> but there was an interesting article about, if the consumer is really shifting, not wanting to be in the retail malls as much, they're further away, they don't like dealing with parking lots, they like the outdoor ones better than the enclosed ones -- >> really? >> that was interesting to me, and that -- i know that following foot locker, that they have a big change in how they want to have their store base not in malls, they want to be away from malls -- >> standalone super stores like a dick's sporting, which might not be in a mall or if it is, it's in an outdoor mall, not -- >> and nearer to the consumer. >> nearer to the consumer. steve? >> tapestry had taken out capri, a name i was long, i'm no longer i'll still long tapestry, but i've lightened up.

it bounced off the high 20s or mid 20s, and i think these names, to karen's point, are getting exhausted. so, ralph lauren bounced off those lows, too. lvmh is a higher high end name that one hasn't had that real bounce, it rolled over real early and never got to a level where you can say, okay, i made some money but retail, to -- where karen started off this conversation, if people have a job, they're going to continue to spend money and until that softens, you're going to be able to trade these names. you might not be able to be investable, but you'll be able to trade them. >> not as a long-term hold >> right >> that show you do -- >> "power lunch. we don't have power, and we don't serve lunch. but -- >> i've heard you mention the aber com bee and fitch, that's tripled in less than a year. it's not because the consumer is better, it's because they're operating better you have to sort of be careful to the reasons why not that matters if you are long the stock.

walmart, they're going to win in '24, and they're within a whisper of their all-time high and i do think that chasm between them and target is going to expand again. >> i'm curious, people don't want to go to indoor malls or that merchants don't want to be in indoor malls? >> well, i guess it's a chicken and egg thing. if the people don't want to go, the merchants don't want to be there. there's that i don't know when that started changing i mean, there's been a lot of evolution since the pandemic, right? that was clearly a disaster, and maybe people got less used to going to malls, they like the outdoor malls -- >> there's no way -- >> freezing -- >> he wants to go to an outdoor mall on a day like today the colder regions, the climate would be something, but i think you're onto it with the pandemic >> a pairs trade, though, if you had on aber com bee and fitch long nvidia, you would have made money, which is astounding

>> you were a model, i know you're not allowed to talk about it >> i got the abs, right? yeah. there's a lot more "fast" to come here's what's coming up next >> king of the streaming jungle. analysts knighting netflix ahead of results next week why they're so bullish on the media giant, and how the rest of the streaming space stacks up, next. plus, a choppy china trade the latest data pointing to a shaky recovery, and sending stocks to fresh lows but are fears overdone we dig in on the global impact ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. to 13 degrees on either side.p save 40% on the sleep number special edition smart bed. plus, zero percent interest for 36 months when you add an adjustable base. ends monday. only at sleep number. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing,

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. we got a call of the day on netflix. bank of america declaring the company the official, game over, game, set, match, of the streaming wars, in a new note out today. the firm raising its price target to $585, making it one of the highest such targets on the street it is more than 20% upside from today's close. the stock basically flat today, but it is up almost 47% over the past year. guy, i think, if i were to say -- if people were cutting the cord, what should i buy now, there's the default answer is netflix. you're going to go there first >> and they've got a couple of stumbles over the past decade or so, but by and large, they've done everything right. question now, it's gone from a stock that was relatively inexpensive and clearly to itself to now a stock that's more expensive than the market and getting towards levels where

you are a little bit concerned it's netflix's world, without question the reality is, do you hope you get a pull-back, which you've seen before, or do you pile in here and hope the run continues? i'm more inclined to say, wait for a pull-back and get a better entry point. >> what do you think what did you tell me to watch on netflix? >> oh, "fool me once." steve likes it >> you like it >> yeah. >> two thumb's up on the desk. >> one season, one season, easy. >> right, not a big commitment >> don't tell karen, she hasn't finished it yet. >> right i am long netflix and i wrestled with this one, because the valuation isn't cheap, it's not crazy expensive, i mean, the momentum they're having on their ad-supported business is amazing. from this piece, it declares them the clear winner. that's been the case for awhile. but all the good things that become -- that come from being the clear winner, others drop out, right and content gets cheaper, and they're in a position to be able to pay the most, they have the

best balance sheet, the best cash flow, so, i don't want to sell it, but it's hard to argue that it's super cheap. i'm warming a lot to the idea of dominating a business is worth a big premium. and they dominate. >> that's what they do that's what they do. >> and if you look at the -- so, where karen says if others drop out, if you look at -- even if they're not dropping out, they're spending less on content, so, which means they're licensing more, even when they're still in existence but if you look at the ad tier, the ad-supported tier for netflix, they have 23 million monthly active users in november, they had 15 in may, they had 5 so, there's still growth -- >> that's the ad tier. >> that's the ad tier. so, could it go higher yes. it is a little topee here, but i think it still can grind higher. all right, coming up, the trouble in the china trade disappointing economic data weighing on the overseas stocks,

and major etfs hitting their lowest levels in more than a year how you should position yourself in that area, next. and get ready for some fast movers ford and some insurance stocks heading in different directions. the reasons behind those moves and whether you should be in or out of the names, when "fast money" returns in two minutes. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the two follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. - i got the cabin for three days. it's gonna be sweet! what? i'm 12 hours short. - have a fun weekend. - ♪ unnecessary action hero! unnecessary. ♪ - was that necessary? - no.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. stocks dropping today, but closing far off their lows of the day. the dow falling 94 points, now on a three-day losing streak the s&p and nasdaq down more than a half percent on the session. shares of instacart jumping more than 6% after an upgrade to outperform at wolf research. analysts seeing approximately 50% upside for that name and say a potential merger with uber could be good for the company. meantime, shares of spirit airlines sinking another 22% today alone after a judge yesterday blocked jetblue's

proposed takeover of the budget airline. shares of spirit now down nearly 60% just this week and that would be two days, right? that's all there is. plug power dropping afterhours the company announcing plans for a $1 billion share offering. meantime, three major china etfs hitting their lowest levels since late 2022 after the country reported disappointing growth in retail sales data. and our next guest says you better not be investing in china with his money honorary professor at the chinese academy of sciences john rutledge is here i was going to be sarcastic, you see clear skies and butterflies in china, but it's quite the opposite you say it's just not investable right now. >> it's really not this is the slow economist on "fast money," so, i won't have trading tips for you but tyler, the problem is that the headlines are all about the economy. 5.2% growth, sounds pretty good.

last year, it was three, but it's really just the rebound from covid that's not the real issue, though there are structural problems, debt, real estate problems, et cetera everybody knows about. but the real problem is that it is a play that exists under one-man rule if you want to know the big risk of investing in china, ask jack ma i knew jack since he started alibaba. and this guy can wake up one morning, have a brain cramp, and whatever you own there means nothing. we've got to remember, when you own a stock or a direct investment, the duration of that investment is roughly 35 years do you think you can see 35 years into the future with mr. xi jinping's china >> no, absolutely not. it speaks not only to the investability of -- of chinese stocks or etfs that do business there, but doesn't it speak, as well, to the viability of american businesses or western

businesses that are doing business there, either as a market or as a manufacturing center if you're saying that the equity business is subject to one-man rule, certainly foreign direct investment into plants and into markets is in jeopardy >> absolutely. well, tyler, the punch line here is that the new national security law means it's not safe for an ex-pat to be in china you could be arrested, you could be denied exit from the country at the will of the government. it's just not a safe place to be, now, if i put on my borard f director's hat, and i think, well, let's say i've already got investments in china, it's a huge market that's very seductive, but it's not one to take the bite of you have tomaintain your existig inve

investments, or they'll fall apart. you don't have to do new projects this last year, china lost $100 billion of fdi they are going to keep losing, as long as this continues in this way >> i'm hearing you say, if you're advising an american company, you're saying, if you're there, do not up your catchal investment there, and, in fact, do the minimum amount of maintenance that you need to do to maintain your position >> that's right. which is the only safe way to reduce your capital position in china, otherwise, you can sell it at a deep discount to a local. but it -- it's -- if you do that too aggressively and openly, the government will punish you for it, so, you've got to keep saying the right things in c china, but not extending yourself anymore than you already are. >> i don't know what apple is doing, but they seem to say the right things guy? >> mr. rutledge, in early december, president xi was here,

three weeks later, we learned that he told president biden that by any means necessary, we will take taiwan, i'm paraphrasing to a point. so, my question to you is, does the weakness in the chinese economy make it more or less likely they were to do something there? >> well, as i remember, tsm's earnings are out tomorrow, which is relevant to this conversation taiwan, you know, who knows what's going to happen the problem is, in a normal government, in a normal country, there are a lot of people involved in making decisions so, the average of 100 people looks like a normal distribution the average of one person looks like one guy and that's -- he can wake up tomorrow morning and do something aggressive the recent trouble they've had in the military with corruption, you know, using rocket fuel toll make hot pots and so forth, is going to make him not want to take that bet or take that chance, but they're very sophisticated information warriors, as are the russians. so, you're going to see a lot

about that coming up during this election year, because they're going to think, the more they can scare people here in am america, the more they can push the -- they can push the results of the election. >> all right john rutledge, always good to see you, sir, thank you very much >> thanks, tyler. > . >> let's trade it. are you with john there in saying china is not investable >> we've said that for awhile here, and one of our biggest concerns with the fxi. if you can put up -- a 15-year chart and you'll see, we're at levels we were at last in october 2022 and go back to the financial crisis, if you want to go that far and you'll see i mean, this is alarming stuff, in terms of this etf and in terms of the underlying stocks, as well. there will be a point where you can get that capitulation in the individual names, but we haven't gotten it yet, tyler >> thoughts? >> there was a time when we used to worry about investing from america in alibaba, because america would do something to china on trade or what have you.

xi jinping does enough to his own companies to damage it to make sure that you can't have any future earnings in those stocks, so -- i think it is uninvestable right now i think there's a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes that we have no clue with, so, i wouldn't be touchy china right now. >> it's very interesting and obviously there's a new regime in taiwan it would seem -- if you've got a worrisome economy at home, that is typically when politicians like to do something to distract and you've got this new leader coming in, he's sort of like the old leader, he's from the same party, in taiwan you would think that would be a time that china might test taiwan, either before he takes office in may or afterwards. anyhow. coming up, ford shifting into neutral after a downgrade from ubs we'll pop open the hood and look at why one analyst is putting this automaker up on the blocks. plus, schwab in shambles

the brokerage reporting a decline in revenue and profits before the bell. that name is our next guest's top holding. where he stands on that stock now and his top value picks, that will be next.

all right, everybody, welcome back to "fast money. we've got a buzz kill, a buzz kill on ford shares, which slipped as much as 3% at its lows after a downgrade from ubs. analysts saying upside is limited, as the company continues to face the, quote, stubborn headwind of warranty and quality issues so, is it, guy, a rough road ahead for ford >> it's been a rough 40 years -- i mean, go back, when i started in the business, it was an $11.50 stock, it's the same now. last ten years, arguably, the best decade for auto sales in our history, maybe in the history of automobiles, they can't get out of their own way so, i'm hard pressed to understand what compelling reason there would be to get into ford, other than just taking a flyer on a stock that's basically cheap on valuation >> yeah. let's move onto two health insurance names bucking today's

market downtrend united health and humana, among the leaders of the s&p, both up more than a percent. united health, the bigger winner in the dow, as well. one of the most influential docks in the dow the stock recovering some losses from last week's earnings report karen, you were watching the moves? >> yeah, i like the space, i'm long elevance. united health, was that in one of your trades >> i don't know -- who knows >> we do this thing where we put letters together -- >> yeah? >> make a word >> acronym mine aren't very good. >> unh, if you turn it around, would be hnu, who knew all right. >> you'd be very bad at this game >> i'd be really bad >> it couldn't have been worse than what we did >> i thought it was going to be hun. are we done here >> yeah, i mean, they're not the most exciting group, but they do churn out nice earnings year in, year out

>> companies i love to hate, insurance companies. i tell you just not fans of theirs, but that's okay. we'll leave that for another conversation. coming up, another tough day for charles schwab after its latest earnings report, but one value investor sees a lot of opportunity in that name what wall street may be getting wrong, when "fast money" returns. [disconcerting stomach gurgle] not again. maybe i should get this looked at? [suggestive stomach gurgle] zocdoc? [talkative stomach gurgle] you're right, i bet they deal with this all the time. dr. finley really puts you at ease. let's do it! you've got more options than you know. book now.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. shares of charles schwab falling as much as 7% today, closing about 1% lower that's quite an improvement. the firm reporting a better than expected fourth quarter profit, and a slight revenue miss before the bell it has, however, been an ugly month for schwab tumbling 8% so far this year jitters surrounding money outflows and uncertainty weighing on the stoshgck, but ax fitch, with oakmark funds, managing the oakmark select and the oakmark equity income funds, you are sort of value-oriented is schwab a value? >> yeah, i really think it is. you've had this headwind that's

been going on for 12 to 18 months here, where the rise in interest rates has pressured the balance sheet, you've had clients moving cash out of schwab's bank into other alternatives, you've had a securities loss in their portfolio. there's been a lot weighing on the earnings profile the way we look at it, that competitive mode, though, the thing that's made schwab special for decades is very much in tact they're gathering assets, they're growing the earnings power of the business, and in the coming years, in our view, we're going to see the earnings actually catch up with that business improvement >> how have they done at integrating the mergers and acquisitions that they've done >> yeah, the ameritrade has been the biggest integration. it's been slow it's been a number of years, they've been very deliberate of building out the capabilities to ensure it's seamless at the time of the deer, they said they would lose 4% of as sets once they completed the integration.

it's coming in below that. now, there have been moments where that's weighed on the growth, but the core schwab platform, the schwab customers, you've continued to have those 6% organic flows, and over time, that's very powerful that's a wlt of operating levers and a lot of earnings growth that comes from that natural business tailwind. >> karen, you have a question? >> yeah, thanks for being on where are they in terms of their cash sorting crisis being over and how do you expect their earnings to bounce back? >> yeah, that's been the big headwind, for 12 to 18 months, it's been the persistent cash sorting that's really prevented schwab from capitalizing on what everyone thought would be a good thing, which is higher interest rates. they've worked through the vast majority of accounts, the vast majority of balances, and the thing that's so encouraging to us is that today, we're finally back to balance sheet growth at schwab so, the subdued pace of sorting is being swamped by the natural growth of the business, and so, you saw the balance sheet

increase this quarter, axel rated november and december, and that's going to really change the earnings s trajectory for schwab, closing the gap between what's happening in the business fundamentally and ternings profile, because it gives you all of this incremental cash that you can use to get rid of the very expensive funding that you've been filling that hole with in the interim. so, there's a lot of lateennt earnings power >> all right, alex, appreciate your time today and taking us through your positions on charles schwab >> let's trade it, guys. thoughts on schwab or financials generally? >> well, first of all, financials, it's jpmorgan's world. you have wells that's sort of a hybrid, you go to regionals or bigger bank. but when you look at this on a chart, when you look at charles schwab in particular, if you go back to where the regional bank collapse happened, it still has not made it back to that level that's troubling for me.

that told me that the only ones that you should be buying are big banks, because they're the ones during a crisis, like a jpmorgan, who are going to gobble up all the little ones. so, yes, you can make money trading these. i think you're better off suited to be with a name like jpmorgan. >> i sort of find it intrigues th they are some what of a different business, i think of them closer to morgan stanley, without the investment banking and trading. so, i'm kind of intrigued. i think if they are through this cash sorting and it does seem like they are, i think it's interesting. i'm curious what happened from where it happened and traded down terribly to the end of the day. i have to go listen to the call. something happened >> all right, we'll take a break here, when we come back, we'll do some final trades

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>> levitating. that's like dua lipa karen? >> we were just talking about how important it is to go with the best, going with the very best in the banking space, jpmorgan >> there you go. and jamie on this morning. guy? >> speaking of the best, you are, tyler mathieson >> thank you, tyler. >> coca-cola, ko >> that's about as good as it hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramer. i'm just trying to make a little bit of money. my job, entertainment. one 800 cnbc. brokerage houses low to name their favorite things for the next 12 months