>> and apparently speaking of inflows and outflows when they converted bitcoin. >> and we are going to finish solving the national debt issue, but we ran out of time. all i have to say is thanks for watching power lunch. >> closing bell now. and welcome to closing bill, i'm michael santoli in for scott wapner. we begin this make or break hour with stocks supporting a wobbly take. you see s&p up three quarters. again largely on some of the big tech names. and they have the nasdaq up again in the lead. well unsure what to do with a run of a pretty solid data that will be near their highs. getting a lift in the past hour

or so with the stocks across the major exchanges and still in the red and that has been a pattern for most of those days, which will lead us to the talk of the tape after the overheated rally in the end of 2023. here to discuss is dan greenhouse, and victoria fernandez of cross mark global investments. joe, of course, cnbc contributor. thanks to you all for being here. so it is almost flat and they have had a pull back, lost a little bit of their momentum after last year's rally, but there is a little bit of a thing going on with the economy that is not really hotter than what we thought and ticking a little

bit. where does that bring us? >> listen, i don't think that anything is too surprising as we have discussed on the show. it is one of the strongest that we have seen. and with it, the economic data that has been stronger than expected on the two year, but more pronounced in that ten year and if you told me that would happen at this period of the time and off their eyes, i would take that into the context that we experienced to close the year. >> and sure. every nasty pullback starts with something that feels routine and necessary. and so i just wondered what you've been looking for if it will be more of a broader reassessment. whether it is the fed gets friendly or quickly or more slowly or any of the rest of the

factors. >> i rely a lot on historical data and the probabilities where a particular quarter might lie in terms of a calendar year. this quarter has the highest probability to be the weakest quarter in 2024. that doesn't say it will be a negative quarter. and coming into today, mike, the clear answer to your question would have been treasury yields. it seemed as though the market was afraid of a continued backup in yields. but i have to tell you the price action, and i think today is the first day that you could say this that you have to have really strong comfort on a lot of those conditions that are in place today where they seem okay. the market obviously is applauding that yes, they're in a good place.

and that led to the reserve coming through. the smh at an all-time high, all of us, they are what the economy is as they are doing pretty good. so i feel particularly good about the way we've traded today, the resiliency with some good fundamentals. >> i thought data was the new oil, chips were the new railroad, i don't know, we have to figure out what bell weathers we're going to try to elevate for the modern economy. victoria, there is somewhat of a cautious start to the year. does it make sense to you? are you bracing for anything worse? and do you agree that the bond market itself is in a zone where stocks can still be okay? . >> yeah, i think it makes sense that we're in that risk face here as you have talked about

the rally that we have had in the end of the year. and we talked about this in the end of last year and we knew some of that would get priced out where you are seeing some of the elevations in the yields. i think it's okay for the yields to move higher as it becomes more aligned with what the expectations are. but you've got the financial conditions. and as we have seen a 25 basis point move. you've got political issues that are going on, repricing earnings too where a lot of people that we have talked to over the last couple of quarters, 12% growth expectation is too high and we need to bring that down. we've seen it come down a little bit instead of a low bar here. but i also think it is important, mike, to know i think buyers are on the sidelines a little bit because you've got some money in money markets that is sticky right now.

you're earning 530% on these holdings. there's no rush for people to get into the equity market. i think they're holding back a little bit. plus you've got the blackout on buybacks. that expires in a few weeks. maybe that'll be a little bit of a tail wind to the market there. and we're in consolidation right now that will make sense especially when that bike opportunity for the market when it is in that trend, you are looking for around 50% to hit 20-day lows. and so people, they might be waiting more and then we will see some positive momentum. . >> and for sure the index, that you have seen some of those buying opportunities in the russell that will start to develop. but i do want to get into those

moments of the cash on the sideline type of argument just a little bit as you said on a given day what is priced into the future's curve is a little optimistic. that is probably pessimistic based on the economy and what they have to do to get us there. and who is saying yep, i fully expect the rate cuts, so it is a what if might happen down the road at the end of the year that it might cause them to open up the easing gates as opposed to people investing. >> and the markets were priced to perfection where it spaced on the clock that we have. the market got ahead of itself, so it is reprizing that. the misunderstanding, the fed in my opinion is not afraid they're not restrictive enough at this level. i think they believe they are in

restrictive territory. they have said that. what they're afraid of is reigniting inflation when you've got potential supply chain issues that are going on and because of what we're seeing in the red sea and the extra cost that it is costing companies for that. because they remain resilient as we see those sales and that demand is still there and you have a labor market that will be supportive, even though we are seeing more layoffs being announced, it is supportive and below that. so i think that they fear as if there could be a reigniting of inflation and so they want to take it very slow. boss tick said look, maybe third quarter of this year and i'm thinking in the june meeting where you would get a new dot plus is when they start easing a little bit and to meet them in the middle of this. >> and we see what they had to say today and rafael speaking. where he says it is the working

assumption. he's also saying look, let's not lock ourselves into that certain path right now. it seems like they're confident about inflation going the right way. >> i'm struggling for the right word. >> you'll find them. >> i do find them. >> i gave you four minutes. >> and that is a long time, but listen, i couldn't agree more with what you said that there is no living human being who thinks they will cut six times. the market, that they have the outcome to the pricing and the future market, itself, which is a liquid and you shouldn't draw too much information from it. but no one thinks that they will cut six times when they keep telling us that they will not cut six times and there is no human being actively trading. i disagree with what they said not because it's wrong per se, but for other reasons.

and i will take issue with that one specific thing and an idea that there is cash on the sidelines. first of all there is no cash on the sidelines. it is always in something and that we will acknowledge that. and the amount of money in money markets that went straight up when they went up and there is no limit on appreciation because more money was going into the market. the idea that somehow that money is coming out that will reignite them to that degree as well. >> fair enough. and there is a sense in which you need to have confidence. earnings will come through and whether that means they will take money out of those funds or not and whether they will remain invested in stocks and ride it to allow them to go higher, joe. but the question is whatever they might do and whatever they might do it. can we take heart in the unemployment claims below that today? maybe it is a fluke on whether

that retail sales reported yesterday will be them saying actually maybe it was overstated by seasonal factors. and to me that concern would be if you think all of this encouraging data is a complete head fake and it is actually, we are decelerating faster and they won't be there to catch us. >> if that's the case, then it is very clear to me that in terms of the way you think about allocating towards risk. specifically equities. then not very much will change from 2023. i think that's the story so far in 2024. where is that broadening out of the rally? it is not happening. so far year to date, we have seen an overwhelming desire on the part of investors to stay with quality. and to stay with quality and those quality names that are represented in mega caps and the semi conductors. in other areas of the s&p sectors as well. you can find names. it is not just specific to technology. but i think that is clearly the playbook that is going to be in place.

if, in fact, we are not going to have that soft landing, we will have a firm landing. >> by the way, i wasn't advocating for that position, but that's what's in play. once you finish your year like 2023, victoria, where you had huge consensus opinion that a soft landing was in hand. we were taking credit for a lot of that. and maybe it will be an alarm and what that means in terms of the way you would implement that strategy this year based on those unknowns. . >> yes. and so we were out of consensus for last year as you well know that we have had many conversations about it. and we think that you will get that larger pullback this year because of some of the things that we mentioned and the fact that a lot of those funds that are in those fixed instruments are sticking and they won't roll into the equity market as much as they anticipate that they will. so when you look at your allocation, we want to have

exposure for the defensive names in there and obviously we saw humana come back today because of their announcements that they have that healthcare in general that we have seen momentum shift a little bit. we see a little bit of an uptrend going there. and so have some exposure to the defensive names to some staple names and sectors that have come back. but we think you need to broaden it out and have some exposure for income generations. have options in your portfolios to generate income. have absolute return strategies long and short portfolios. you need to be tactical when you will have volatility in the market, and we will have volatility overt next few months until we start to get rate cuts. then you're heading into an election with some changes in policy. that is just more opportunity for more volatility. >> that's always the hazard out there. if you look at how credit has behaved through all of this and it is one of those touch stones

you could say if something nasty was in the works, is it going to sniff it out or not? if it would, it is not yet. >> yeah, we have talked about this in the past. for those who don't follow credit regularly. it's important to recognize in the high-yield market, the area in which people are looking for some signal that something is wrong. that is more higher quality today and a big story about the market and about half the investment was the lowest credit rating. the exact opposite is happening in the high yield. half the market is the highest credit rating. there are a number of other things to which you could illustrate that point. with that all said, there is nothing in that market from the spread standpoint or ebitda, which is more or less everything is doing just fine right now. >> and you even absorbed the new supply, right? we keep worrying about the idea

that well, people lock in rates, companies locked in rates when rates were near zero and then they will have to pay up. it doesn't seem to be working through that. >> it vale. if you observe the s&p 500 companies, over 70% of those companies have existing debt that will mature beyond the second half of 2025. so it's not a story for 2024. the dislocation that would occur in the credit markets would come from significant defaults. i don't know if you have the economic conditions in place right now. you may have them, okay, but right now you don't to suggest we will see a significant rise in defaults. >> to be clear we have seen some. it's party city, serta, envision healthcare, diamond sports, the big headline for amazon the other day. but these are one off issues. and there is not a sweeping wave of defaults because the economy is doing something. getting back to the main point and victoria brought it up.

you've got jobless claims at exceedingly low levels, multi-decade low levels. the retail sales number was very strong. they started to turn up, gasoline prices are approaching $3. like there is a lot of tail winds coming into the year that are incredibly encouraging. that's not so say the feds are definitely going to stick the landing or there are things they will stick their head out. but the way to enter the year is no different than joe said to how they ended the year, which is more positive than you would have thought. >> there's a troubling element to the defaults real quickly. it's got to be in private credit. just think about the desire and the overwhelming desire for investors to get allocated to the 2023. that is where i would be looking towards. >> i mean you are talking about creating the credit problems of five years from now, maybe. . >> and let me add on. like this will get a lot of negative things. it's a relatively new class that people are aware of. there's a lot of positives that

nobody will talk about with respect to private credit. we won't get the now. >> what i mean is that it is beyond the golden edge. >> that's one of the reasons why they won't think it will be the cycle, just looking there and looking for those opportunities, to be a backstop. thank you so much. we appreciate it. we'll see you again in the market zone. appreciate the conversation. let's send it over to kate rooney now. down 7% heading for the third major day of losses after the proposed merger with jetblue was blocked. the judge said a deal would have harmed cost conscious travelers who rely on spirits' low fare and the wall street journal reporting spirit is exploring possible restructuring option after that jetblue deal collapsed. we've got birkenstock, the

german footwear maker disappointing wall street. warning about a 2024 outlook. talked about modest head winds as they ramp up spending. reporting a loss of about $30 million in the quarter. still the ceo says last year was the most successful year yesterday. he says he is optimistic about growth and undeterred by the macro landscape. mike, back to you. >> thank you, kate. we are just getting started here. the index is at session highs about .8 of 1%. up next it's time to brace for an ai bubble. that's the message from doug clinton who will break down how he's playing the tech sector and the names he's betting on right now. you're watching closing bell on cnbc. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. you can't buy great conversations

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. welcome back. taiwan spiking after topping fourth quarter estimates, sharing a bullish 2024 outlook. our next guest says it is one of the best ways to see the bubble. here is the asset managing partner, doug clinton. it's great to have you on. so talk about what you mean when you say you believe that we have an ai bubble ahead of us. how is that expected to play out? how would you tryto benefit from it? >> mike, i think we are basically in 1995. and in the 2000s. in our view, we will have three to five years of those stocks that are continuing to work higher and those stocks with the exposure getting higher in many cases that we will see higher earnings as they build out the infrastructure included. then we will get to a peak at some point and that

is what happens with every bubble. three to five years with that. that is where things will get hard. it's always fun to play bubbles on the way up. it's easy to cheer, but you need to find liquidity when they take hold of the market. like i said, i think we are not there yet even though we've seen th the plus year. >> and nvidia is clearly benefiting from the increase in revenue off the buildout of ai capabilities. but seems to be benefiting from the fact it is the one wedly acknowledged play on this trend. it's so visible. >> i think it is hard as you would look at all those companies that do have real legitimate ai exposure with good products, and they will benefit

from that. it's our favorite way to play ai as they are the company that fabricates chips for not just nvidia, but amd. apple is a customer. if you think about ai compute, we wouldn't have that revolution that's happening right now without tsmc. when you would look at what they trade at, it's about 18 times next year's earnings, nvidia around 28, amd over 40 now. it feels cheap. a part of that is because they have risk. they did talk a lot about that last night on the call where the market will probably start to recognize that more from here. >> i guess it is always a struggle when they realize one component of the company's business is riding the big trend that everybody wants, but it's kind of by other areas. i mean that is arguably what's going on in some of the others

and you know they look like that at this point. . >> and i'll tell you from our perspective, one of the toughest things to do is to find sort of smaller mid cap public stocks that have true exposure. we have been spending a lot of time in those markets, finding companies in the later stage venture that will have almost all of their revenue, all of their business exposed to ai. companies like those that i would argue is the leading defense tech company in the world and they are a leader in ai for military application and then also companies like the hugging face who is really leading, i think the open source charge in terms of powering the developers to create their own application with these open source models that are now available. >> on the other end of the spectrum, apple is getting a

little bump today pulling back 10% from the ice, not really viewed as being highly geared towards the trend. how do you think about these stocks in this level and how they might exploit what's going on? >> and we still love the company. that we do think that they will talk more about ai throughout the year. in particular, we're look for the catalyst that it will make a lot of sense if they did update them at that time or maybe talk a little bit more about their plans for the large language model. from a portfolio perspective, we put ourselves there with better exposure right now even though that we love apple as a company. >> i appreciate the thought today, thank you. the dow is up about 200

right now. up next, charting big opportunities, jeff cox is back. the one part of the market that he would buy on the tip. that's after this quick break. closing bell will be right .ack to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab.

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. bouncing back from the earlier losses, but still to start the year with the ruing down nearly 6%. the founder and the chairman. jeff, it's good to see you. >> you too, mike. you referred to the weakness this morning, what is the premise of that? why does it seem like it is trending on the backside? >> we take this back into the fourth quarter of last year

where we had unprecedented breath in terms of the 20 day new highs. what we saw out of the russell 3000, where they need to participate in that. that will help set the stage. we have our trend models that will turn positive in december for the group. and at the same time, what we would hear recently as they got through that affect of the beginning of the year. we are now oversold. oversold conditions in that uptrend particularly after we would have this escape velocity that is bullish. oftentimes you will get that consolidation and we actually had a decent priced pull back. i would just add without rambling here, they have not

damaged themselves as all. they look pretty good. it's not as if this weakness somehow was, you know, through the critical levels that will jeopardize that trend. >> right. essentially it's based on how they improved them. that you feel like they looked riper? >> and they were more oversold as you could make that case that they are not as strong. there is a little bit of a thing it there on what side of the ball you are on. but all things considered when you would look at the strength of the trends globally and hong kong and china, then the global trends will be in very good shape.

i mean the japanese chart, which is something they have been in this business for more than 30 years, they don't look good since i've been in this business. it now looks very good. so i think it will be easier to make a case or to at least have that foundation for the bull market domestically when we would see similar patterns and similar trends globally. that's a big part that frankly i don't think enough people are paying attention to as they don't really look outside the u.s. and you know they would talk about european banks or the reads, they are actually stronger than what we would have here in the states. they will usually bode well for at least a good foundation. it is not just some move out of the u.s. that we're trying to keep alive to fan the flames. it is more global in nature. there is global heat out there and that is good news for the s&p. >> you know, obviously that's one of the reasons the u.s. has managed to stay above the rest of the world is the dominance of big tech, one description or

another. has there been a reason to question whether tech remains in that leadership position? even wants to bet against the magnificent seven. does that make sense? >> i mean look at some point it does. but it's a kind of saying you are one day closer to dying. that's a true statement, but it doesn't really give you a lot of comfort or information. the relative trends are still good. the data will give us an indication on when we will start fighting those trends. they're not so excessive to suggest trees are growing to the sky there. i'm a little shocked by it frankly, but that's the data and there is more there. i think we might get, if we want to get cute with this and if we go back to look at the 1995 parallel when the rates were engineered in the last soft landing. what we would have, they did

well until the first waist side. like banks, as an example. that might be a twist here that things are very good as the eyes are on the fed to cut rates this spring. when they do, it is very much anticipated. maybe the market will shift leadership. we are always looking for the call today verses the expectation and that's one we are certainly vetting out and continuing to test and to look at it as we would go. >> sure. i also wanted to get your view on boeing. the stock of 4.5% today and it is one that they would flag again as having been overdone to the downside on the short term. what do they have from here? >> the first thing we do, we start with the group and the industry group for aerospace and defense is still relatively strong. it's one of the better groups within the industrial. so the birds of the feather will tend to flock together and forget about being an aerospace name.

but those charts are generally good charts as we would like to look for opportunities within the good industry groups. the big huge base in boeing, sort of coming back from the max 737 problems that they would have obviously was a nice breakout. it looks great. it's in an up trend. what we try to do is to find names that are oversold in those trends. we call those optimal entries for our clients and we alert them to those. we start getting some of those signal back last week. but what we look forward to is that hook. i think today, it's actually a very good example of that. so optimal entry for us in boeing. it is essentially 180. we think it is going to resume the trend of the upside. >> jeff, it's great to catch up with you. thank you so much. >> thank you. see you later. all right, up next, tracking the biggest mover as we head into the close. kate rooney standing by. hey mike, yes, a pair of calls to morgan stanley saying

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. less than 20 minutes until the closing bell. s&p up 1%. let's go to kate rooney with a

look at the key stocks. >> hi, mike. hertz, we'll start with hertz shares. jumping up after analysts upgraded the investment firm cheering on the rental car's decision to sell 20,000 electric vehicles from its fleet. it says that should help boost the stock. plug power, the fuel cell company announced new financing plans that plans to raise more than a billion dollars by selling new shares. and they would dilute the existing massive part of the company existing $1.5 billion market cap. mike, back to you. >> all right, kate rooney, thank you. . still ahead, the regional bank rundown. several reporting earlier with more on deck tomorrow morning. we'll hear from the top analyst with all the key themes and metrics he's watching. and plus apple on the rise. shares are popping more than 3% today. what's sending that stock higher. closing bell will be right back.

. up next humana shares are tumbling, down more than 10% and 8% right now. we'll see what is weighing on that name and what it might mean for the rest of the insurers. that and much more when we take you inside the market zone. ah, these bills are crazy. she

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custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley . we are now in the closing bell market zone. back with me to talk about the rally and the apple shares. plus on why humana shares are sinking. as we hone in on the regionals. joe, apple up i would say 3.4% right now. the biggest contributor, counting for a quarter of the gain. what i find fascinating is an upgrade today, didn't really tell you a lot that we didn't really know about apple. what a wonderful company it is.

you have the potential upgrade cycle coming. they've got the division pro coming. so it seems like it was an interesting call. you could pull back to the moving average. it was a well timed one. anything that gives you a sense that it is going to carry on from there because we did also have downgrades based on things that we also knew, which is top lines. >> so we've had three downgrades year to date in 2024. if you look at the 55 analysts that cover apple. of those 55 analysts, 34 buys, six sells. 38% of the analyst actually have a hold or sell. if you compare that to the other mega caps, the holds or sells on the other mega caps, 10%.

we've got them coming as well. it does restart the momentum and what is surprising a the that, they will close at the highest level. the highs of the year and the all-time high. . >> and exactly. >> i guess the question is, you know, can we just crank up the same trade? you mentioned earlier that last year's rule seems to be implied. >> that's the formation right now. you know where the russells were, the banks were over the last five days. you have banks down 5% and 8%. morgan staley down.

jpmorgan is even down. >> for sure. the old glamour stocks are insulating this market once again at least for the moment. let's get to bertha on this move. what's behind this? >> well, it's the trend. they are having more elective procedures. that's the percentage of the premium that's spent on medical costs. it will top 91%. that's 240 basis points above consensus. as a note, insurers mlr rarely top 89%. in the meantime humana is blaming it on high in inn patient costs as well as outpatient surgeries. same with what we heard from united health last week. but humana says this is hitting their 2023 earnings, cutting that guidance. on top of that, they also warn

it is a higher attrition and lower new number growth. now projects 2024 medicare membership growth will be up just 1.8%, which is below the industry average that we're looking at for this year. . >> all right, yeah. this move obviously has ripple affects across the sector, bertha. thank you. joe, does it change anything? seems like higher utilization is something maybe we could think about being front loaded. nd look towards the large cap and like the pharmaceuticals or regeneron and let's not forget about what eli lilly is doing and also the

medical device as well. and they will struggle. . >> the medical devices were hurt last year with fewer procedures or fear of it now. that's coming back. it's the vast sector as we all know. let's get to david george for his take on the regional bank results, david. i guess. so key threads that you would pull out of the numbers so far this quarter. the markets, they seem to be not really worrying about any adverse surprises, but also not that enthusiastic. >> yeah. good afternoon. i would say for my perspective, mike, the takeaway from this result is really stability. what i mean by that is revenues across the board have been pretty stable. expanses have been relatively well managed. and the quality for all the concerns out there about the consumer, they will continue to be in good shape. while the group has pulled back, keep that in mind. the banks are up. some profit taking is not

surprising. if we will get a couple more days like this, it will be time to start getting more aggressive. >> you characterized credit quality as normalizing, but not necessarily getting to the levels. we saw them get hit today. the company has other issues as well. if i look at the consumer proxies that are well above their lows from late last year. where do we think about how we think about credit right here? >> we will try to think about credit, mike, through the normalized lens. as you both know, they are in nature and that part of the income statement is the provision. it's important when times are really, really good or really, really bad from the credit perspective. to think about what's normal and value the stocks accordingly.

again with that on the employment rate. i would call it normalizing rather than meaniingfully worrisome. i think that it will be reasonable to assume they will go up. that should be expected. >> you mentioned on the commercial side and seems like it's the three word case on a lot of these, without getting into the details. goldman sachs results, feels like a reasonable l. have these banks outrun that issue or is it manageable for them at this point? >> yes, i do think it is

manageable as they will have some challenges with some markets that will struggle. but it's important to note these will take time to work through. the ability to pay for those credit losses over time. this is underreported. banks have taken the time already and companies like wells, for example, they have put aside the reserves, which is a high reserve. it's the money center area. to your point, a lot of that has been dealt with from the earnings perspective, and managing that headline risk as things deteriorate. >> you'll have a couple more

days like this and be more aggressive. where in particular are a couple of your favorite names at this point? >> and the regional group, which reported this morning would be our favorite. we think it's a truly compelling risk reward. it is a great banking franchise from the southeast. it's the combination, which they have seen some challenges. expectations are very low. they have significant franchise, about 15% above herbings, which will be monetized at this point of the year. and we would assume that the insurance business, the residual bank is trading at just seven times earnings, where we think it will be from our standpoint and a great opportunity. we would point to comerica, huntington and citizens. >> we'll hear from comerica in the morning. david, appreciate your time

today. thank you. >> thanks, man. regional banking as a group is back to about one time book value. anything that you're interested in here? >> it's looking at companies like visa, mastercard, berkshire, maybe apollo blackstone. i think collectively the totality of this week and in the same place today that we were one week ago as we were sitting here on set. and we were awaiting the financial earnings. well, they didn't really come through so good and we're in that same place. so they would look at that and say choppy market, but we're okay. >> exactly. your punishment needs to be punished. we've got about 30 seconds to go before the close. you see the s&p 500 is up about .8 of 1%. pretty close to the highs. dow up 215.

nasdaq still the leader and the russell 2000 up half a percent. we had the market turn positive, which started off quite negative. just modest about a 50/50 split. and to the afternoon, it did calm down a little bit. that will do it for closing bell on a thursday. let's send it to overtime with jon fortt. . green across the board for the major averages for nasdaq. that's a score card on wall street. welcome to closing bell overtime, i'm jon fortt. morgan brennan is off today. stocks staging a late session turnaround led by the tech sector, which continues to outperform the bottom market. saira malik reveals her playbook and the opportunity she sees in this choppy market. a rare interview with a venture cap list to term the coin unicorns to the values over