demand in 2025 with lng, and so producers don't want to scale back right now and risk losing that market share, which is why we haven't seen a price response with production still at records. >> and it is cold in new jersey. >> it is. that's going to do it now for "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. an apple about-face. shares jumping to their highest close of the year. we'll dive into the charts to find out. plus, no soft landing. that's the warning from one top analyst on the future of the commercial real estate market. what's got him so concerned and what it means for the rest of the financial markets? and later, shares of coin get flipped after more than doubling last quarter. the stock is down nearly 30% already this year. can the company turn this around? one of our traders hopes so. we'll see if they've changed their mind.

i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with the apple upgrade that sent shares jumping today. analysts at bank of america raising to a buy from a neutral, saying new a.i. features could drive a refresh. the firm putting a $225 price target on the stock, almost 20% higher from here. the call sending apple shares up more than 3% on the session. their best day since last may. but it wasn't the only tech name rocking. shares of taiwan semi soaring nearly 10%, hitting their highest level in almost two years. that after the company posted better than expected revenue and profit for its latest quarter. the moves pumping a little mojo back into the broader markets with the nasdaq leading the gains, pulling into positive territory for the week. but is the optimism around big tech getting ahead of itself? it feels like -- it feels like, guy, just two, three weeks ago, we were saying, oh, nobody's going to buy new iphone, they're going to hold only their devices longer, china is a real problem,

semiconductors have an inventory issue and here we are, everything is coming up roses. >> first of all, welcome back. >> thank you. >> happy -- >> happy -- >> and happy new year. >> welcome back. >> thank you. >> number one. number two, mojo. tim looked at me when she mentioned mojo. >> when i hear that, i think of guy's acroacronym. >> yes, the apple upgrade, yes, the stock performed very well. they report on february 1st. we'll learn a lot more then. taiwan semi is fascinating. it's all about the guide. without question. and it's an extraordinarily important company. we talk about it collectively on the desk. but for a little reality check, profits were down 19% year over year. profits. last year, this time, this was a $90 stock. today, it's $113 stock. i know it's not that easy with the math, but that's the market we find ourselves in now. a lot of people, just the enthusiasm around the guide and the importance of the company and maybe refresh cycle and

apple is their biggest -- all those different things, but for perspective, this stock, which is still reasonable, you vus to look back and see where things were. i'll say this real quick. if you want to play in the semi space, broadcom might look expensive with the price tag, $1,000 stock, it's probably the most reasonably priced semi stock out there. >> taiwan semi also said they're going to raise cap x, which is really good for the chip makers, too. >> i think it bodes well for everybody. apple, nvidia. if you look at the street, they basically said, this was an all-clear for a new multi-year cycle of essentially semi growth, with tsmc at the leading edge of being a data enabler. people think they are in kind of the generic commoditized world of chips, they're really not. and there's a high margin part of their business, so back to the multiple, you know, depending on what you're looking. i agree, semis trade at an

astronomical multiple, relative to the market. and to themselves, but taiwan semi trades at a 32% discount to the stocks. so, it's seemingly a must-have stock, if you are going to be positioned in this part. whether this is the time to do it, we've had different points in the last year and a half where a taiwan semi earnings announcement has been a very important, you know, moment to look at the entire industry and to look at tech spending and to look at i.t. overall and this is one of those numbers. i'll let dan speak about it, there could be some caution. >> good handoff. maybe our people can put up a chart going back to the start of 2022, or really a five-year chart of taiwan semi. in that q-4 report, the company made a new all-time high. it looked like it was off to the races. a lot of similar sentiments were kind of being expressed at that time. well, the stock over the next call it 12 to 18 months got more than cut in hatch, right? because a lot of those kind of drivers didn't come to pass. so, when i think about the quarter they just reported, i

think about the guide they just gave, i think about the cap x they just gave, it does sound good. it sounds like the narrative that -- well, data center, pcs, smartphones, are doing a bit better. it's giving them more confidence there. but these sorts of things can change fairly quickly, right? when we're talking about end markets like china, talking about complex, you know, supply chains and the like here, so, to me, you know, the jury is still out on this one. closing up 10% is one of the largest market cap companies in our market. i think that coupled with the apple upgrade, a very good analyst over there att bank of america, and i think it's really good where you are positioned at a neutral, you jodowngraded the stock, and then you have the flexibility to change that. these things make a pretty decent narrative. i'm just not sure how long they're going to stick together. and just to be clear, taiwan semi, obviously, 20% of their business or so is apple, so, these companies are very closely tied. >> do you believe the narrative

that things are actually better? in the upgrade, part of it was better than -- better services expected for this year, that they're going to better monetize the base, that a lot of people who hold an iphone right now, they're old iphones. mine is an 11, maybe a 9. really old. but the majority have 13 or older. and so, they will have to upgrade for a.i. purposes if they want to participate in those features. >> yes, i believe that. the question is, what's the right price to pay? when i think about the magnificent seven, even if you look at something like a microsoft, yes, the multiple's higher, but the growth is much better. and i think ooildi'd rather pay growth than pay less for -- dan always talks about, where is the growth here? and in fact there really hasn't been great growth. so, i think the multiple is beyond the story. even if you buy the story. even if you say, okay, all of that may be. but i think that it's still too expensive. >> let me take the other side of that. >> you're taking the other side. i'm supporting you. >> i understand, but think back

to just -- >> if you must, go ahead. >> think back to just a year ago when microsoft only invested $2 billion in openai and just on the cusp of making a $10 billion investment that was going to secure this technology they could use through their productivity tools and their search and they were going to have an ownership stake. think about apple were ever to find a generative a.i. tool similar to that on their 2 billion installed base on their margins that have a really good shift away from their -- what i'm saying is, i think there's going to be other opportunities for megacap tech companies to realize some real big gains in generative a.i., and apple, there's nothing in it right now. so, when you think about a company expected to grow earnings and sales for the next couple years with a 45% gross margin that doesn't move, they will need something extraordinary on one of these new technologies. and it's not going to be vision pro. you have to look beyond ar and vr. >> so, you're saying they'll find it? >> i'm saying they'll have to,

if they're going to justify trading at 30 times versus the other companies that are growing faster. >> let's say it's something okay an interesting. if you are an apple -- if you are in the apple ecosystem, it's so easy to say, i'll pay x dollars per month to get this a.i. feature. >> their own co-pilot, whatever, right. >> whatever it is, to help you. and i think that would be an easy monetization case. it doesn't have to be like the next great a.i. thing. it just has to be enough -- >> move the needle. >> exactly. >> there is a.i. in there, already, of course. >> siri. >> well, siri is one of the worst products ever. >> get out there, karen. >> i have to -- >> karen actually -- >> i have english guy siri. he -- >> we make fun of siri all the time. >> i think he's hard of hearing which is a really bad problem. >> they've spent billions on machine learning. >> right. you see it in email and it suggests put in your calendar, it's already there, but you're talking about -- >> added extra. >> that application that is so fantastic. >> will you pay $5, $10 a month

extra which will help you? and maybe you will -- >> maybe i will. >> apple's services business benefits from people either have a kwumcumulative effect. people don't realize, they're lazy about the fees they're paying to apple, and they are. i don't think the story today is much as you compare semis versus apple, i commend the upgrade. as an analyst that's been more tactical in their apple call, which is great, i think it's interesting. the multiple in apple to me is the biggest challenge right now in a world where they had the same a.i. business yesterday, i'm not sure it changed today. >> the five-year historical range, 16 to 34 times and right now -- >> 28. >> implies 32 -- >> the price target implies 32 times. fair. >> i don't know if this is a joke. this just guy came on -- >> siri?

>> yeah. s siri? >> it's off -- >> that's why, i mean. i'm -- entire thing is lost on me. we've talked about this -- dan mentioned it, but just for the math portion. i mean, 4$400 billion of revenu this year, 417 next year. do the math, it's less than 5%. eps growth, i don't know, maybe 6%, 8% at max. margins have been flat lining for awhile. yes, their install base, it's 25% now, services of overall revenue, which is why they get the valuation. you tell me. this is 28 times next year's numbers for a company that's been sort of -- i hate even saying it, but muddling along over the last three, four quarters. >> you can believe the tsmc narrative and not believe in the apple story, correct? >> yes. because the tsmc is data center, it's leading edge other technologies. i mean, look. by the way, the numbers today also show that intel is not closing fast on technology. i mean, they talk about adoption on their three nanometer.

intel is outsourcing more of their foundries. i'm a shareholder, i didn't love that announcement. today was all about excitement you should have for tech and for tech spending chl. and the fact thatsemiconductors make a fresh new high is something that's notable. that was the story for '23, at a time when people really felt like we needed to see a broader market, and i know we don't have that broader market participation here, but it's taking the market higher. >> does it make you feel more bullish, guy? why are you laughing? of course not. >> yes. everything on the -- listen. very impressive day today without question. the vix moved yesterday has me somewhat concerned. the spike on the vix on a relatively benign market day. we've seen worse and the vix hasn't done nearly as much. so, there's some things out there that are concerning, but yes, when you see this on the margins, a day like today, on the back of what tim talked about, yeah, you can't discount it entirely.

>> it's not great. here we are, three trading weeks into the year and we thought we were getting a broadening out. we thought we saw money come out of some of this mag seven, now i would make the argument, tesla is out of there, should be out of there for good, if you look at the way it's acting and how they're able to defend their business right now, they don't really seem to have those capabilities, but i'm looking here, energy is down on the year, basic materials is down, real estate down on the year, industrials down on the year, utilities down on the year, so, you're not having a broadening out, you're having a reconcentration back into semis and the -- >> because the narrative changed in terms of the rate cuts. >> yes. rates are up on the year. >> claims that were the lowest levels and you have bostic saying he doesn't see rate cuts until the third quarter. we have the narrative saying no rate cuts and so you flee into what was puerceived as safety. >> i agree with that. ten-year is actually, you know,

pushing up a little bit, even in the afterhours here. we wanted to see market broadening, but remember, the market that was so strong was led by, you know, the highest market cap names, and ultimately, i still -- i think the same analog will catch up to the broader weighed. there are all these statistics about where the underperformance of equal weighed is year to date, but think of the outperformance in the last two months of the year. hard mofor me to get too worked up, not just santa claus -- does that bother you? >> that's a rhetorical question. what doesn't bother me? that would be a better list. >> and happy new year, by the way. i do think you have a case where the move in stocks year to date, yeah, actually believe in health care, i believe in real estate, i really believe in utilities and health care and energy this year, less so on real estate, but i'm not sure you give up the ghost, based upon this. i don't think anyone is suggesting you do, but again, higher rates, higher outlook for

the fed is certainly not good for equities. >> i did cover some bonds today, tlt, sold some tbt. the move in the ten-year has been pretty swift, pretty dramatic from 308 to almost 420. bank of america believes in big begans for apple, but what do the charts say? it's time to bite into the technicals. our next guest says it's about to fall from the tree. the chart master, one and only carter braxton worth joining us now. what are you looking at? >> well, get right to the charts, if you want. you referred to, as a group, apple sort of muddling along. apple's relative performance to the market actually peaked five quarters ago. let's look at this first comparative chart, just two lines, so, this is, again, from the end of september 2022 to present. the tech sector is up more than 100% versus apple. up 25, apple, the others up more than 50.

now, that's a problem. meaning, its stock is up, but you are underperforming the other choices. the other way to look at this is, instead of two lines, one line. the next is chart. it's a ratio chart. it's simply apple's relative performance to the s&p, and you can see where that vertical line is drawn. that is the peak, it's 27 september, 2022. and since then, to right now, again, apple is done half as well as any other choice that one could have made by buying the tech sector. and there's some auto correlation here, because apple is part of the tech sector. apple's relative performance is even worse. but the chart itself. let's just end with that. apple here and now, i've got it sideways for a reason. i think it's a pair of twos. at some point, having underperformed to such an extent, yes, you can get a news-related pop, such as you saw today, but the burden of proof remains on the bulls. the bears simply have to point

to, it's done half as well as the tech sector since q-3 2022. >> carter, you still like semis? >> i do. and guess what? sometimes you just stick with what's working, right? so semis have been exhibiting relative strength. nvidia broke out from its range two weeks ago and now you're saying the smh moving to new highs. >> all right, carter, thank you. carter braxton worth of worth charting. which goes back to our original conversation, which is, you might like one store, but not the other, and that's what carter sees here. >> it's fair. tim, you asked tim that question, he answered it the way carter answered it, as well. you don't have to, by definition, if you love taiwan semi, you don't have to love apple. listen, i think apple is expensive. there have been periods of time where apple does sell off. the last two times we've seen selloffs, if our crack staff can look ate, go back in october. we traded down to and held to

200-day moving average and bounced. and that's what we did recently off the couple of downgrades. it's traded relatively well the last few months. let's see what happens in earnings in a couple weeks. >> and there's other names in the semiconductor space that maybe we haven't been talking a lot about. if you think about, okay, smartphones are bottoming, qualcomm. apple is a 20% customer, samsung. they have a great phone going on over there. and so, you say to yourself, well, if phones are going to be the next, like, kind of product offering, because this is the generative a.i. stuff that you're going to be using, there's going to be upgrade cycles for the chips before people start focused on the phones and that's a relatively cheap stock and got a good one. all right, coming up, out of pocket pain. health insurers dropping hard as medical costs creep higher. the impact on earningsand the prognosis for the rest of the year yet. shares of coin haven't

joined the party. how the new funds are impacting the crypto exchange, when "fast money" returns. this is "fast money" with melissa lee. right here on cnbc. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

welcome back to "fast money." shares of humana plunging today, hitting its lowest level in nearly two years. the move coming after the company warned that higher medical costs would hit its bottom line. the news echoing a similar sentiment from united health last week. and taking down other insurers, too. let's bring in bertha qumecoomb a checkup. >> thanks, melissa. the trend is looking a little more challenged right now. like united health did last week, humana says higher inpatient costs and outpatient surgery volumes drove their medical loss ratio in their case up to 91.4% late in the quarter. now, that's how much of the premium they spent on medical care. that 91.4% is 240 basis points above what the consensus is and over six points higher than what

unh saw in its fourth quarter, which was higher than expected. unh has outpatient surgical centers, so, that might have helped them lower their costs, but unlike united, humana is also lowering its full year 2023 earnings outlook and says this could weigh on 2024 results. on top of that, humana is warning of lower growth during the recent open enrollment period. so, they are projecting 1.8% medicare advantage growth this year, and a note, again, that number just surprised me, that nine handle on the medical loss ratio, it is exceedingly rare, apart from some of the smaller medicaid insurers, including to cfra data, and analysts tell me that it's been about ten years since one of the major health insurers has notched an mlr of 90% or more. melissa? >> bertha, thank you. so, it's almost like looking at -- it's basically how much

per dollar they spend, right? 91 cents on the dollar, they spend to cover costs. >> right. >> margins are thinner. >> and bertha was trying to convey the magnitude of that miss is really enormous. i mean, that is so much of their profit, right? so, they have the mlr, that's what they spend on medical loss ratio, they have other expenses, leaving a very slim margin, but on a giant number. so, a miss like that is so big, it does make you wonder, okay, are they kitchen sinking this mlr look for next year? they're experiencing it for sure, so, they're seeing it, but are they projecting forward that it will continue to be that bad? i think maybe they are kitchen sinking it a little bit. also, the annual enrollment period, that was disappointing for them. so, a lot going wrong. and remember, they've already been hit once on unh. >> right. >> so, now they are getting hit harder, even, i don't own humana, i own elevance, they are reporting on the 24th.

this sort of intrigues me. i think -- i think it could be a little bit of a kitchen sink. >> maybe a bottom? >> yeah, i mean, this is a three-day one, three-day rule here, but i'm intrigued. >> when are we going to get these numbers? aren't they reporting the fourth quarter numbers in another week or so? >> yes. they better not be different than this, right? that would be terrible. that would be so dumb and terrible. i don't know -- >> but it feels like it's setting you up for, you know, again, concern about whether the adjusted '23 numbers are going to get knocked down. certainly as you look to '24. they are calling for 37 bucks on adjusted eps in 2025. and, you know, that's something that i think analyst community is going to start to do right now. that's what was going on right now. i think you wait. >> unh reported on the 16th. they had -- obviously very similar, but they had obviously the stock sold off, but then the analysts came around, said, you know what, we whauns's going on.

the average price target is close to $600. i think i saw a $610. flip side of the coin, trading levels we saw in june of last year. they have seemingly a lot more problems than unh does. and this is, i think, the have and have nots. unh is holding ground here. humana is breaking ground here. and this level was a good sign. u want a real level, $365, that low we made then, i don't know, given everything that bertha just said, that seems to be in the cross hairs. all right, here's what's coming up next on "fast money." is there space for coin base? one week into bitcoin etf trading, and shares of the crypto exchange have been feeling the heat. where investors are choosing to go for their bitcoin fix, next. plus, cracks in commercial real estate. the wall of debt coming due, and whether there's any opportunity in the sector. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." it's been one week since the debut of those long-awaited bitcoin etfs. the funds reportedly attracting $2 billion in collective flows over their first three trading days, but coinbase hasn't felt the buzz. after rallying along with the entire crypto space at the end of last year, it is down more than 28% already in 2024. so, with all these new bitcoin etfs on the street, is there still room for coinbase? tim, you own it. you thought it would be okay, you think it will still be okay? >> yeah, look, to me, coinbase is the on-ramp for digital

world, especially for people that are early adopters, and that's been proven so far with bit bitcoin. there's an element of the position they play with etfs, and some of their market intel, but to me, it's really about them being in the position for the widening of the industry. this is a stock that's, you know, i don't know, it went up 2 1/2 times during this runup, and something that -- the pull-back is not surprising. look, you've seen bitcoin pull back, too. you've seen outflows from gtpc. there's a lot of impact for this. but is coinbase less important of a company today than it was before the bitcoin etf? i think not. again, you are bringing more regulation, you are bringing nor institutionalization into it, and right now, they at least, outside of the etf community, is how people are getting exposure. >> if you need an on-ramp, isn't it much easier to go into your charles schwab account, fidelity, and buy an etf? >> but bitcoin's already gone up 3,000%. what's the next one?

and what are other places? you've seen the money that's been made, actually, this year and for the last six months in the much broader, you know, currency, and we can go into the next top ten, i mean, that's really where i think money has been made, again, i'm talking about the kind of money made over the last five years. >> but there might not be any other ones. bitcoin is nearly, you know, got to a trillionish or so, it was higher a couple years ago. go back in coin base, in 2021, they had $8 billion in revenue, close to 90% of those revenues came from trading fees. so, there was a frenzy, and a frenzy in lots of other coins. so, to mel's point, if you want exposure to what you think is the kind of one thing, you're probably going to do it in your trusted brokerage account through a trusted -- >> for free. >> right, for free. to me, i look in q-3, and again, coinbase is expected to have half the revenue in 2023 they had in 2022, or, 2021, maybe $3 billion or so. i think in q-3, 53% of their,

you know, came from trading fees of their revenue, so, it is dispersing. that could be a good thing, to your point about custodial services and the like here. but it seems to me, they're going to lose a lot of business for people who want exposure to this asset class, they're going to do it in an etf. >> it's important to point out i don't think i'm going to die on the coinbase hill here, and, in fact, i'm actually up on the tr trade. did we ten days ago know that the bitcoin etf was going to be approved? no. it was always expected. the price action to me is a function of some of that. if you were selling because bitcoins are going to steal their thunder, you should have been selling it from 80 down to 40. anyway. >> i just think it's a question of valuation. it's a negative value, whatever the number is, losing money. it's hard to see how they get here, to this valuation, with, i mean, i don't know, that with revenue going the way it is, margin pressure the way it is, i

don't get it from a valuation standpoint. >> yes, all those yeses. but this was a $35 stock a couple years ago, up to $180. the same high we made in march of 2022. we stalked about it a week and a half or so ago. made sense to stop there. you're looking for an entry point at this level, i think, and $10 from here -ish, that $110, was the high we made last july. go back and look. that's your entry point. >> would you rather buy $1,000 worth of coinbase right here at $124 or $1,000 worth of bitcoin in an etf in your ira and set it, forget it? i'm just saying. i probably -- >> set it and forget it? >> i think i'd buy the bitcoin. >> the set it and forget it is important. >> my main point here is, coinbase was a proxy for bitcoin until we had these etfs. >> ish. >> well, the look at the runup it had. >> he self-would you rathered and then answered his self --

>> over time. >> rhetorical would you rather, because he sort of threw it out there, like, you know -- >> around the horn. >> it would be cool if mel could throw the flag. >> she should have a flag. >> i should have a flag. >> we have such an international audience, we should go with a yellow card. >> no, no, no. no. >> you know why? because you'd be getting a red card, pal. >> i would be. think about the absurdity of a red card. you look at somebody wrong, they get a red card. it's a fugazi sport, okay? >> soccer players basically -- they explode on contact. >> i know wilf is watching right now -- >> sure he is. coming up, coming for commercial real estate. why our next guest sees big problems in the space and how it could be a bigger opportunity. we'll dive in. and investors unplugging from ev stocks. the sentiment starts to sour. the new downgrade on rivian and the future of the electric trade. don't go anywhere. more "fast money" in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast.

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welcome back to "fast money." the dow jumping more than 200

points, snapping a thee-day losing streak. the s&p up 0.9%. shares of draft kings jumping 7%, after flutter entertainment posted results. u.s. gaming revenue grew 26% year on year. discover financial sinking 11% after posting mixed q-4 results last night. the company reporting a decline in earnings as it took a large provision for potential loan losses. it also took down capital one financial, sin crony. there's a real concern with the consumer getting worse. >> net chargeoffs up to 4.11%. it had a two-handle prior. it doesn't seem like a big deal, it's a big deal. but more so was the guide. somewhere between 4.9% and 5.3% for the remainder of the year. that obviously speaks to a certain consumer, i get it, i don't want to sort of connect too many dots, but let's see what capital one says, i think on the 24th and see what american express says on the

26th. historically, this has been sort of one of those warning signs you want to look for, and they fired a warning sign last night. >> what i thought was interesting is that in their deck they cited higher delinquency rates, the newer customers came in -- >> vintages. >> right. in terms of the customer, and if you think about it, it's a lot easier to payoff your credit card when at 0%, and so, the people who are more recent probably have, you know, there's an element of credit rating inflation -- >> adverse selection, as well, is that what you're saying? >> maybe. >> it's concerning, for sure. it's not, i mean, citi, when they reported, this was not flagged as an issue for them, so, that's a higher quality customer. you point out, discovery, near to the bottom, capital one, a little better, and then american express, a very, very different customer. >> right. >> we'll see. it was down today, as well. not surprisingly, it should be, if there's any whisper of credit

concerns, but to me, i still think that this will be somewhat bifurcated. moving on here. the commercial real estate industry with $1.2 trillion in debt coming due through 2025 and higher refinancial costs expected to weigh on stocks. oak tree capital calling the wall of cre debt the most acute area of risk right now. for more, let's bring in jade ramani, managing director at kbw. you don't think there's a soft landing ahead, but what does this landing, quote unquote, look like, then, and how does it play out in the stocks you cover? >> well, commercial real estate is in the cross hairs, and for 2024, we do see turbulence. for you taylor swift fans, i would say, no, we're not out of the woods yet. we see pressures on asset values, down around another 5% to 10% for a cumulative 25% to 30%, and that will lead to credit pressures.

there's 1$1.2 trillion of debt maturing over the next two years and lenders are pulling back, including the banks, as well as the non-banks. right now, the math is broken, with asset yields below borrowing costs, resulting in negative leverage. and therefore, this issue is going to come to a head. we're cautious on the commercial mortgage reits in particular. >> so, i was looking at your coverage universe, and all of your stocks have a market perform rating or higher. none of them really reflect the sort of real concern that you have. why -- why is that, is it just that you tend to cover a higher quality group? or are they somehow managing to buffer themselves against this? >> well, it's a mix of factors. the commercial mortgage reit side, the stocks are trading at 80% of book value versus closes to one times book value. there's already some discount factored in. roughly 2% to 4% losses. we have two underperform ratings

on cmtg, but we're not really recommending any stocks in the space. they also pay robust dividend yields and while there could be pressures, when you think about having more sell ratings, more underperform ratings, we would need downside and assume some dividend cuts, so that's really why we have a neutral rating outlook, but within kbw's sector coverage, we do rate the commercial mortgage reits as an underweight sector, and it's commercial real estate finance is last of the sector we recommended for 2024. >> it's karen, thanks for being on. we've seen this sort of iceberg coming for awhile now and we haven't yet seen a ton of -- there's been a few big sort of bankruptcies, people turning the keys back. how many years of sort of, you know, rough going do you think it will be to clear up this tremendous overhang of commercial real estate debt?

>> that's a get question. it's going to be multiple years, because 10% of the 5$5.8 trillin matures each year. and on the office leasing side, the leases tend to be five to ten years on average, so, you have about 12% of leases coming due each year. however, there was a record amount of debt issuance during covid, and so, we have a lot of floating rate debt coming due in the next two to three years, roughly $1.2 trillion this year and next, so, i think that given the outlook for 2024 and 2025, we think the issue will come to a head in the more near term. >> three of your top picks are home builders, horton, lennar, and toll. i'm wondering, in an environment where it seemed like rates were going down, you know, they lolook ed great, but where rates may stay higher for longer, does that change your outlook at all or is it all about just the inventory problem?

>> i would say inventory trumps rates. we came out with the 2024 outlook for housing in which we expect the existing home market to be flat and home prices to remain high. so, that actually creates an opportunity for home builders. you know, over the last ten years, the market shirr was around 9% to 10% and increased to close to 15%. and we see them being able to maintain that 15% or higher market share, and offer mortgage buydowns as a way to help bridge the gap for their customers. this results in, i would say, consistent gross margins, but strong sales, which will result in earnings and book value growth for the sector, so, we are recommending the home builders. >> thank you for your time, appreciate it. >> thank you. >> guy? >> karen would have thoughts on this. simon property. up 40%, which is remarkable. i mean, that's all on the back of interest rates, without question. it's still in an eight-year downtrend. they report on february 5th.

it's going to be really interesting to see what they have to say, because quite frankly, the stock makes people believe things have improved, but have things improved that much? look at spg for sure. >> you were in and then out of some of these reits. >> yes. i was -- vornado and bxp, boston properties. i still have some boston properties left. they are the sort of blue chip of all of them. >> yeah, you've seen also a lot of these reits actually did take advantage of what was going on in the last three months of rates coming down. they rush into the market, they were able to. but i think as just was pointed out, i mean, there's an inevitability. there is also a structural element of a lack of how the model works. in other words, these break evens and essentially these spreads are in question, and i think whether we have the kind of crash that people think could happen, i just think that the best days, at least for the foreseeable, are over. >> i loved our guest.

he was fantastic. the taylor swift stuff, does she have to make her way into every facet of american life? she's now made her way into the vernacular of "fast money"? >> you certainly cemented that. i mean, we could have just let that one go. >> i cemented it? >> i let it go and now you brought it back. i mean, here we are talking about it. >> she's watching right now. >> do have a jacket? >> for who? >> for taylor swift? >> haters gonna hate. >> shake it off. coming up, tesla and rivian doing the electric slide. lower all year long. stocks barely able to pull off an upday so far this year. is there any hope left in this trade? we'll plug back in, next. plus, a lifeline for the luxury trade. cartier's parent company surging as sales pick up in china, but is it too early to give the all-clear for high end retail? ghafr istas nto the deil rit teth.

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our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. welcome back to "fast money." a buzz kill on rivian and tesla. both stocks in the red today, down 2% to 6%. it's been a cold january for the two ev makers. rivian with just one positive day and tesla not doing much better with just two positive days so far in this year. i feel like i got to go to dan. >> you know, it's funny. we've been talking about the

quarterly reports, last three quarters, the stock has sold off, this is tesla, 9% the day after. whatever investors expected, what they got, and what was guided to and what they heard on the call, they were not happy the last three quarters. a 9% move on a $700 billion market cap company is a considerable move. so, when you look at the way the stock has acted now, over the last three weeks, down 20%, in what feels like a straight line, there's been one or two up days in the entire year, you say to yourself, well, sentiment is not particularly good gob into the print. whatever they have to say can't be as bad as what the stock -- so, it sets up as a really difficult setup. with that being said, you know, if investors are not willing to buy it after no matter what they guide to, like, this could be a pretty disappointing thing. i think they had a really bad fundamental year last year, but the stock did well. but if you look at where the stock was, it just got back to where it was, you know, in 2022 at some point. >> you sort of have to believe that margins have found some sort of a bottom in order to be bullish in this story.

there was an article today pointing out that there's price inversion. if you take a look at the model y and the model 3, in many cases, or in cases that were cited here, including the incentives, you can get a model three, you can get a model y for cheaper than a model 3. a model 3 is more expensive. and so, the margins could feel even more pressure. so, that's not good news for this story. >> no, and it's not good news if there's some sense that -- the macro around ev right now is, and i realize there's always too much hype in any direction. there's no question there's more ev adoption every day. the question is, have we gotten a lot of the early adopters out of the way? and there are certain people that, at least right now, as long as there's gas in a gas station, they're never going to buy an ev car. we're learning that hybrids are really a model that are working, especially for people like byd who are stealing, i think, some of the thunder right now. that's really the story. and that's the story that plays back into the stock, because margins have been shrinking even though they've been growing

outside of everyone other than byd. coming up, high-end luxury may be regaining its luster and catching the eye of investors. we'll discuss the good and bad next. more "fast money" in two. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones covid-19? i'm not waiting. if it's covid, paxlovid. paxlovid is an oral treatment for adults with mild-to-moderate covid-19 and a high-risk factor for it becoming severe. it does not prevent covid-19. my symptoms are mild now, but i'm not risking it. if it's covid, paxlovid. paxlovid must be taken within the first five days of symptoms, and helps stop the virus from multiplying in your body. taking paxlovid with certain medicines can lead to serious or life-threatening side effects or affect how it or other medicines work, including hormonal birth control. it's critical to tell your doctor about all the medicines you take because certain tests

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welcome back to "fast money." a mixed day for high end retailers. strong china sales. cnbc's robert frank has more. robert? >> melissa, shares up 10%, pulling up the rest of the sector today. sales were up better than expected 8%, and there were two big drivers. china and jewelry. sales in china and hong kong up 25%, that was a huge surprise, given the weak economic data out of china just this morning. the cfo saying on the call that, quote, overall, i'd say the china business is rebuilding. so, that's good optimism for investors here. jewelry also strong, led by its cartier brand. jewelry sales up 12%, driven by u.s. buyers. watches, though, were still weak. other brands like iwc, those

sales growing only 3%. meanwhile, watches of switzerland, they sell rolex and other high end brands in the uk, they saw a stock drop more than 30% on a profit warning. meanwhile, shares of lvmh and kering traded higher. we're going to get a better look next week when lvmh, of course, the dominant luxury company, reports on thursday. >> all right, robert, thank you. robert frank. what was karen's acronym? >> helm. >> helm. >> at the helm. >> with an m. >> and an l. >> and an l for lvmh. yeah. >> hold on. did you play the game right? >> no. >> i cheated a little. i had health care in there and energy -- >> yeah. disappointing. anyway. >> just failing. but -- >> been here a long time, you should know better. >> i know. i know. what can i tell you?

so, louis vuitton. great that they had good numbers. it's not the biggest sector for lvmh, luxury, you know, hand back bags would do much better, but it's good to see, you know, swiss -- they have a different issue, rolex is going away, they're doing their own thing, that's going to be a huge loss for them. we need more momentum. it's been a very tough beginning of 2024 for the luxury space. >> well, i need to point out that the e in bicep is estee lauder. if we have a recovery in china luxury and cosmetics and what not, that thing's going to rip. >> he needs to point that out. >> everybody knows that, tim, please. >> going to rip. >> up next, final trades. like a dad party,ress a birthday brunch, or a vow renewal for your dogs? yes! the right drinks delivered for any party.

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> love the news out of flutter, as it relates to draft kings. profitability in online sports betting? yes, there is. >> karen? >> i spoke about it earlier. been a big move in the ten-year, so, i'm covering my tlt. >> dan? >> yeah, rivian is in my, what, zebra acronym. i think that in the low teens

looks interesting. >> guy? >> welcome back. i hope you are able to stay up tonight to watch the rangers take on -- no? >> doesn't matter what it is. >> i am doing "squawk box" tomorrow. >> lucky them. mcdonald's. >> thank you f wchorating "fas" see you on "squawk box" tomorrow. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to explain what's going on. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. because these unexpected tail winds appear in the market and they're keeping the bullish backdrop alive in the face of un