cash flow number. >> earnings next week. joe, quick. >> smh. >> all right. >> schlumberger. >> that's your new buy slt. we're on record watch. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you, scott. record watch continues right here on "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen in for kelly evans. here's what's ahead. big tech and another bullish call for apple, the second in two days? why now? one event could be a catalyst for the stock. the analyst is here to tell us what that catalyst could be. recession, no recession? our market guest says the u.s. is the place to be either way he'll tell us why. and existing home sales now at the lowest level annually in

about 30 years. but americans are still buying overseas. the ceo of sutherby's will join us to tell us where they are doing business. we begin with today's markets and dom chu with the numbers. >> we're watching the numbers very closely. i think we may have just been a tenth of a point or so away from a record intraday igh. just to give you an idea, i did see a 4818 at one point, but i'm not sure what the little figures beyond the decimal point were. but that is the record high, 4818, if i can write on there for you. 4818 is the record intraday high. 4796 is the closing high. so those are the numbers that we're watching right now. well above the closing levels for the s&p 500 in terms of records. so if we close here, it is a record. again, i think we just came very close to hitting that record intraday high just in the last five minutes or so.

we're up about 2/3 of 1%, 36 points to up theside, 4817 right now. the dow up 2/3 of 1%, 245 points to the upside. 37,714. and the nasdaq composite, big technology a big part of that story, up 1%, 15,204 is the last trade. so record watch for sure. keep an eye on some of the names we're keeping an eye on with regard to earnings season. it's still rolling on. travelers has had a record high. better than expected earnings came out, handily topping ek pextations. travelers able to drive profits by raising the insurance premiums that they have for their clients. travelers shares up about 13%. up 5% today, responsible for about 70 points to the dow's gains, so keep an eye on travelers. big technology, a handful of stocks right now in the market, technology are all in the green. broadcom, up 4%.

nvidia up, the reason why it's important, tyler, every single one of these has hit a record high today. so just a slate of different companies, including big tech names to watch for sure. and microsoft still just a hair bigger than apple in terms of market cap. big tech, a big deal. back over to you. >> dom, thank you very much. we'll see you later. tech is where we start today. apple helping to push the turn around, up 2% this week with another call today. this one from evercore isi. the upcoming earnings could be a catalyst and might prove the outlook for china and apple vision pro are better than some of the doom sayers. joining us now is the person behind that call. welcome. good to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> let's talk about apple and why you see it in a positive

light. it has gotten -- it's been caught in a lot of cross currents. some people not liking it, penalizing it. others like you liking it a good deal more. >> yeah. listen, you've had a few headwinds in the last two months. the china worry, which i concede is there. there is an issue in china they have to figure out. so that's the whirl wind they're caught in. while we get the negative, there is a ton of positives. the thing we're turning folks to is iphone demand is stable in north america and good in places like india and other emerges markets that will offset some of the china concerns. and the second thing is services we think will show double digit growth and show a sustained acceleration. and if services can move in that right direction, that has an outsized benefit of gross margins and profitability for

apple as we go forward. i think that's the other part that's worth talking about. and vision pro, the product is out today. initial demand, delivery dates are getting pushed up. so to the extend vision pro is a successful product, apple is alive and well. so a combination of those three things, in light of how underperformance we've had in the stock is what makes me bullish here. >> let's take apart some of those things that you make a strong case of your price target of $220. let's talk a little bit, if we might, about what i think you're arguing, which is that whatever falloff there may be for apple sales within china, it can make up a good hunk of that, maybe even more of that, by selling effectively in other emerging markets, like india, elsewhere in southeast asia.

kit recoup 100% of that loss? something less than that? or even more than that? what do you think? >> yeah, if i step back and look at this, apple picked up an incremental 30, 35 million units against huawei. now, the question is how much of that -- i think some of the data is worse than that. if it's 10, 15 million, then the growth in north america will more than offset it. if it's close to 40 million, huawei picks up all the share they lost in china and india, and then apple would have more to contend with. but what we see so far, the challenges of huawei is in china, and i think they pick up half of that. the other part i'll tell you is, the iphone is up 2%, 3%. so another tail wind that apple

has, if you think about the numbers. >> let's talk about whatever legal issues are out there for apple, and i can't begin to tell what all of them are, but we know about two. one affects the apple watch, and that claim was apparently sustained on appeal. the other might be some regulatory risks from the department of justice. i think you're going to say that the apple watch issue has a small effect on the company as a whole. >> absolutely. i did not know my watch was detecting oxygen levels in my blood, but they'll shut down that feature and not have that. so i don't think that's why people are buying an apple watch. the doj, we'll have to see what the find holdups or the issues that doj is going to have with apple. if you listen to what europe is

doing, the real challenge folks have with apple is this 30% peak at the app store, and does apple lead to open up the payment mechanism. how do you open that up? i think this is instructive to look at what apple is doing in the south korea, the netherlands, and what they're doing in these places, even outside the apple app store to do payment, and it's a 27% grade. this is going to be -- the other thick the doj could come after is, do you need to have third party app stores allowed on the apple system? side loading, if you may. again, i don't know how they're going to come about it, but i don't think customers want to add more friction to how they download and run apps, so we don't think that will be a big

deal. the apple payment may be the one to focus on. >> thank you very much. you also upgraded ibm. thank you very much for that very clear explanation. meantime, congress has averted a government shutdown, for now. but the fight for funding in washington appears to be in the early innings. emily wilkins has the latest. emily? >> reporter: hi, tyler. congress has kicked the can down the road yet again. they bought themselves some time. another six weeks or so. part of the government is now going to lapse in funding on march 1st, and the other part on march 8th. in between that time, what lawmakers really need to do is the house and senate need to come together. they have their different spending bills and they'll have to reconcile how much they're going to spend throughout hundreds of agencies, thousands of programs. they've got -- remember that topline number, that 1.6 trillion. but now they have to get into

the nitty gritty of how to spend it. remember, too, around april, if they miss that march deadline and try to take it forward again, lawmakers put a little incentive for themselves to get this done last year. that's a 1% cut across the board in federal funding. so if congress continues to kick the can down the road, that's going to mean lots of cuts for the federal government, particularly for the defense industry and defense contractors. some of them are already worried about this. of course, in other spending news, we are still keeping an eye on that package of aid, those billions of dollars the white house has proposed for ukraine and for israel. of course, to have that, lawmakers have decided that they need to also have a bipartisan immigration and border security provision. the senate's been working on this for more than a month now. it's not easy to find something that's bipartisan on a topic that's as partisan as immigration. but we did hear congressional leaders, minority leader mitch mcconnell saying that he thinks a package could be ready to come

to the floor next week. of course, the senate is one thing. the house is a much, much harder climb here. speaker mike johnson has been under a lot of pressure of hardline conservatives in his party. the big thing he's stuck with them on is saying that they're going to have to have very strong immigration measures. it's really just become a question of what house republicans can accept and could they ever accept whatever the senate winds up putting forward? and mike johnson is -- did get in a little hot water. there are a lot of hardline conservatives that did not want to see another stop gap going through. they wanted more federal cuts. but you have the house freedom caucus that just came out with the statement yesterday, saying that americans did not give republicans majority in the house to continue nancy pelosi's inflationary spending and joe biden's failed policies. like mccarthy, it would really only take a couple republicans to oust him if all democrats also voted to remove.

that scenario is still very fresh on everyone's mind. it's the elephant in the room on the hill right now. i think if that happened again, there would be huge question marks as to whether federal spending would be able to get done tyler? >> the s&p is at an all-time intraday high on the s&p 500, just as a sort of note as we talk about this spending issue. is there a danger that speaker johnson finds himself in precisely the same position that speaker mccarthy did, ie, with a rebellious far-right wing that is looking for his head? >> reporter: this is almost exactly the same situation that speaker mccarthy is in, and a lot of people called this out. when mccarthy was removed, everyone was like this doesn't change the overall dynamics. house republicans still only have a narrow majority, making it more difficult for them to effectively govern and push forward the policies they want.

the only big difference is the longer you are in leadership, the tougher choices you have to make. there was a lot of frustration with mccarthy even before he became speaker. mike johnson doesn't necessarily have that, but he has this whole new set of issues where he's really trying to build a leadership team, build trust and connections and do it in these high, critical situations where he's dealing with deadline after deadline. so i think the situation is still there on the table. i don't think it's something we might see next week or the week after, but it certainly is something that's percolating when you have these discussions about immigration, about border security, and about funding the government. >> emily, thank you very much. have a great weekend. defense spending will be front and center as we approach the next shutdown deadline. but our next guest says getting both sides to reach an agreement on that issue will be no easy feat. for more here, we're joined by andy blocker. andy, welcome. good to have you with us. i thought they had agreed on a

number for defense spending in this current, i guess continuing resolution. >> absolutely, yeah. we're at $886 billion is the line. look, i think the issue is going to be once you get the full package, because you can't get a full package unless you get agreement on all the different various issues, because the house republicans want writers on these. they want to have different types of language that will help with the border or with another issue. these are things that the senate democrats are not going to allow. >> let me ask you something that -- excuse me. something that has crept into my cynical head, and that is this. i am having watched washington on the border for a generation. i'm increasingly persuaded that neither side really wants to solve it.

>> well, unfortunately, i think you're right about that. i think for the last 20 years, i think both sides, for various reasons, have wanted to keep it out as an issue. we're seeing that a lot right now. there's a lot of pressure on the biden administration coming into the election to deal with the border problem, which is a real problem and everyone acknowledged that. at the same time, the republicans in the senate versus the republicans in the house, they say we're never going to get a better chance to get substantive immigration reform here. but the republicans in the house are following former president trump's call, let's not give biden a win. that's why this is all contentious. >> that's my point. there's an incentive on both sides, it would seem to me, to keep this issue alive. in other words, on the right, the deal that they're likely to get from the democrats would not go as far as the right would like. i'm talking about the right as the gop, not necessarily the

hard core trumpist right, and on the left, the democrats don't want to alienate their left wing, which is staunchly in favor of more lax border policy. >> tyler, that's exactly right. the dynamic here is that you have to thread a narrow window here to get this deal done. i think the one motivation here is that the u.s. reputation globally is on the line in whether or not we get ukraine funding. ukraine funding is tied to border funding directly. so since they have come up with a deal, it's going to have to be half the votes for the republicans this the house and half the democrats. half the democrats won't vote for it because of the immigration changes, and half the republicans are not going to want to do it, because immigration doesn't go far enough and they don't want ukraine spending. >> and the country, as polls

tell us, andy, the country wants some stability at the southern border. they want policies. whatever they are -- whatever they consist of, whether it's a wall or more security personnel or whatever, they want some stability there. and yet the parties don't seem able to get there. let's turn our attention to the more sort of crassly political part of this, and that is whether anyone is likely to derail president trump's march -- former president's march to the republican nomination. not the courts, not nikki haley or ron desantis, nobody. >> so i think with respect to the republican primary, i think you're right. i think his strong showing in iowa is another fact that is going to bolster that argument, that there's not a chance.

but i like to say from that great movie "dumb and dumber," so you're say thing's a chance that nikki haley may have a chance? the people in new hampshire don't necessarily like to follow iowans. it's a different voter set, not as conservative. it's more independent minded in new hampshire. and so that is the chance. but that is the last chance. if nikki haley is not able to either win new hampshire or get very close, i think it's game over. >> andy, always great to have you with us. appreciate it. andy blocker, thanks. coming up, the s&p just hitting a record intraday high. our next guest says u.s. markets are still the place to be, and believe it or not, it all comes down to the consumer. he'll tell us why, next. and tensions escalating in the red sea, and the houthi attacks could continue for months. as we head to a break, here is a look at markets as the s&p 500

hits an all-time intraday record. we were on the precipes of it last hour. we have crept into it. it's an all-time high since january of 2022, two years ago. the nasdaq 100, also at a report high. "the exchange" is back after this. the ten-year yield at 4.16%. i know what it's like to perform through pain. if you're like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt.

welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. the fed will get one more key inflation reading with core pce next weekdays before the next meeting on interest rates the week after that. and just ahead of that event is me media black out period. austin ghoulsby said this morning. >> we had a large group of people in 2023 saying recession was inevitable and inflation would stall out at 3%. a lot of them saying the fed should just give up and declare that it's inflation target was now 3%, because they simply could not get inflation down to 2%. both of those proved wrong, so i do have some more, is it confidence? i have some more comfort that

we're moving into a different part of the cycle than we were for the last 18 months. >> our next guest says recession or not, global growth slows this year. the u.s. is still the best place for investors to be, thanks to a strong consumer, strong labor markets and inflation doing what austan goolsbee said, and that is coming down. let's bring in nate tuft. nate, thank you for joining us. let's talk about your view on whether the economy is going to slow markedly this year in the united states, and maybe even lapse into a recession. everybody seemed to be predicting it for 2023. it didn't happen. relatively fewer people are predicting it for 2024. that may mean it will happen. what do you think? >> i think the odds for a recession are probably a toss-up. that sounds like a copout, but the simple reality is, we are

going to see slowing growth. that's not necessarily a bad thing from a market perspective. because as we know, there's a lot of debate going on around what central bank policy will do, as we see growth on top of the fact that inflation continues to be disinflationary. so we think at minimum, we are in an environment of slowing growth, but the growth in the u.s. is still reason wlably bet than the rest of the world. so the dynamics are still in favor of the united states when it comes to global growth being in favor of the u.s. >> the stock markets aren't really foreshadowing a recession of any sort, technical or otherwise. the dow is up 303, the s&p 500 at a record high. even if the economy slows, and whether or not it goes into a "technical recession" or not, can this be a good near for equities? do you expect it will be, even

if you don't expect it to be as good a year as 2023 was? >> i do believe it can be a respectable year for equities. i think we'll have a bear pocket at some point during the year, but as we go into a slower growth environment, i think it's a fairly narrow window, maybe at most, a quarter or two. so you may get a couple -- the tail end of that will be beneficial as we start to move on to the next up cycle, both in the u.s., but also globally. so this year we do expect positive returns for the u.s. s&p, as well as many global equities around the globe. >> let's talk about the kinds of stock sectors that you think look attractive, maybe given the fact that they weren't major participants in last year's run-up. where would you be looking to put fresh money today in equities? >> i think there's a couple areas. one, last year was a big

disappointment for certain types of equities, particularly those that were higher dividend, higher quality, and i think with some of the uncertainty around growth this year in the u.s. and across the globe, those types of factors and stocks that qualified as bigger dividend producers, more consistent earnings profiles, companies that tend to hold out better when you have a slowing growth environment should do better than they did last year. an example would be the health care sector. it was one of the worst performing sectors last year, but is expected to have the highest growth from an earnings growth this year, likely 15% growth. on top of the fact that they are trading at multiples lower than the equity markets. so health care and/or dividend oriented stocks are two ideas that we're focused on for 2024. >> internationally, i see you are favoring an overweight in japanese equities.

>> we have been on board with the japanese equity trade for a while. we continue to like it. japan equities trade at a discount relative to other areas of the world. we're also seeing a central bank that has a lot of accommodation there. yes, there's debate on whether they'll try to normalize it, but it's still going to be a central bank that's generally accommodating. and you have some structural dynamics going on in japan as it pertains to shareholder friendliness, as well as pushing dividends out to shareholders. >> nate, it's always good to see you. we appreciate it. >> great being here. >> thank you so much. have a good weekend. coming up, inflation remains front and center for consumers and for restaurants, as well. while food prices are staying sticky, it turns out that chicken, chicken is getting cheaper. and a flock of fast food chains stand to benefit this year.

the details ahead. as we head to break, here's a look at some of the names hitting all-time highs today, including costco, visa, mastercard, o'reilly, and t-mobile. "the exchange" is ckft is.ba aer

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let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪) welcome back to "the exchange." i'm contessa brewer. south carolina senator tim scott will endorse donald trump at tonight's new hampshire rally, according to a source familiar with the plans. he will endorse trump over nikki haley, who appointed him for his senate seat in 2012. scott is the latest in a string of former republican

presidential candidates who are supporting trump following vivek ramaswamy, who gave his support to trump monday. the los angeles innocence project will take on the scott peterson case. peterson was convicted in 2004 of killing his wife, laci, who was eight months pregnant with their unborn child. he was sentenced to death a year after his conviction. in court filings, the project says new evidence supports peterson's claim of innocence, and they want to conduct dna testing to prove it. the cdc is warning of a salmonella outbreak linked to products sold at sam's club and costco. about 50 people have gotten sick after eating certain charcuterie products from the retailer. ah, charcuterie, so popular over the holidays, tyler. everybody's parties were just meat and cheese and olives. >> my kind of food. see you in a little bit. see you right here. get yourself ready. coming up, the attacks in the red sea are wreaking havoc

on the global supply chain and energy prices, and they could continue for months according to our next month. we'll look at what's next for energy and trade. stocks are at session highs. the s&p, nasdaq 100 at record highs. and the dow is up 317.

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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. yemen based houthi rebels continuing to attack shipping vessels in the red sea, despite u.s. led strikes this the region. u.s. central command says there's been three attacks in as many days, the latest involving a u.s. owned tanker. if that isn't enough, geopolitical risks are ramping up in other areas of the world, as we well know. here now is founder and director of research at energy aspects. welcome. good to have you with us. appreciate your time. >> thank you. thanks for having me. >> so let's talk about the houthis first, as they attack shipping in the red sea, and down at that narrow area, i believe it's called bob el

mondab. is there any way that they cannot only be deterred but neutralized? the saudis fought them for years with american weaponry and were not able to do it. what makes us think that we can? >> you know, to your point, even statements from joe biden have said the attacks so far haven't deterred them. that was definitely our view, that these attacks won't deter them. but it doesn't mean the u.s. and uk will stop with it, because they're obviously trying to send a signal. but the problem, is and something we've been talking about for a while is the houthis are getting stronger. that's where the risk is. you've seen the disruptions they are causing in the red sea. they have, however, come out and said that they are only attacking or they only plan to attack u.s. and israeli ships. of course, we have seen one ship being hit, which wasn't from one of these countries. so you can't really control it sometimes, given just the nature

of location, et cetera. and those are the risks. for now, russian vessels are still continuing. china and some of the other countries are, again, still very cautiously crossing it. but people are either avoiding it or they have stopped. so i don't see any change either. i don't see an end to the situation, because there are no talks ongoing. >> if i'm an international shipper, i wouldn't put much stock in the idea that the houthis are only targeting u.s., uk, and israeli bound or related vessels, because who is to define that? they may say that a maersk ship once ported in haifa years ago, and that makes it a suspect ship. do the houthis have a broader agenda here than disrupting shipping? in other words, is one of their goals with the backing of israel to be a dominant military player in the gulf of ohman, as well as the red sea?

and basically be a muscular presence there long-term? what did i say, i'm sorry? i mean, iran. backing iran. excuse me. >> that's fine, yeah, yeah. no, look, i think you're right in asking that question. i think that is exactly one of the things they're trying to get to. they want to be taken seriously might be too strong of a word, but one of the things we believe the u.s. is probably doing is really trying to get china to talk to the iranians and saying look, the u.s. is trying to say to china, this is hurting chinese exports and china said today or overnight that the cost of their exports have just gone skyrocketing, because they can't use the strait, as well. china depends immensely on exporting goods. so they're hoping via china to put pressure on iran to talk to the houthis saying look, could you basically show some restraint and really back down

and let's kind of talk. but it's not working right now. >> so getting china into the play here. we have a very interesting graphic on our wall that shows you going through the suez canal from the far east is 14,000 miles opposed to 16,500 miles. the ransit time is 10 to 15 days shorter going through suez. how much of chinese commerce moves through that red sea and suez area? >> well, it depends on the type of vessel. but containerships were the ones that were really diverting. a lot of them, of course, a lot of them go west coast, u.s., that's different. but off the percentage that goes to europe, all of it goes through this. it just depends on how much. transit to europe is heavily impacted because of this. and i think one of the things you're seeing even for oil is

that a lot of vessels now are stopping to reroute around the cape of good hope, adding 15 to 25 days depending on where it's going. the real shortage, the people who are going to feel the pain is europe, the mediterranean region. whether it's goods arriving from china or elsewhere, or in the case of oil. it is the middle east oil that comes to the mediterranean. that's the biggest challenge. you have to go around now, which means it will arrive a lot later than planned. >> i read one thing that the cost of getting a container to europe had surged to $7,000 from roughly $3,000 because of the extra distance, because of the insurance costs. that not only creates an inflationary pressure, but it creates certainly those vexing supply chain issues. >> absolutely. absolutely. i mean, that $7,000 figure, it's going up by the minute right now. i've seen some quotes that are

closer to $10,000 right now. >> interesting. >> that number is going to rise, and the one thing i would highlight, which i think is very, very important, this is just the start of it. think about it, these vessels, we're going to tie up more vessels on a longer route. once they reach europe, technically, it's empty, because, again, you don't want to go through the red sea. you come back empty or having ships in different location completely distorting where the vessels need to be. that's when the shipping costs will go up even further. we haven't even seen the start of what this could lead to, when it comes to shipping costs. as you said, by definition, it's the end user price, what we pay at the pump or goods. that's what is going to go up, because that's where the costs will have to get absorbed. >> very interesting, and that we are just beginning to see -- just seeing the tail of this dog, not the dog in full just

yet and it may be coming. thank you very much. we'll have you back soon. coming up, inflation has restaurants playing chicken. and that could be a boost to shareholders. shares of this fowl focused name, doubling over the past year. from atomic wings to the mccrispy, we'll dig into fast food trends to watch.

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success in 2024? kate rogers has the story. hi, kate. >> hey there, tyler. inflation has been sticky for restaurants and consumers over the last year. take a look at beef, over $5 a pound in december. but chicken has been deflation nar and comes in at a dollar less, making it ideal for companies to lean into if this continues. data from across the top 60 qsr chains shows consumers are flocking to the bird, had to do it, when it comes to orders as they are the value play in this environment. the number of consumers who ordered chicken sandwiches increased year on year from 14.6% to 15. %. the number of burger orders flat at just over 7%. burger prices are up 10% in 2023 versus chicken climbing just 5%. andrew charles points to three trends in chicken's favor. number one, skews younger in

terms of the consumer. it's higher margin due to inflation trends with beef. and success of chick-fil-a and raising cane's. the stocks tell the story. wing stop, sales soared in 2023. the fast food players did have more modest performances, mcdonald's up over 12%. so interesting charts right there. >> so the question is, mcdonald's has offered chicken in one form or another for a long time. how is it doing in the chicken world? >> it's so interesting, tyler. mcdonald's said in december it would be leaning more into beef and chicken, chicken in particular had been really successful. and when i was talking to andrew charles for this story, he mentioned that t.d. cowens checks of their restaurant

suggested that the mccrispy launch they had in 2021, that was the most successful launch that the company had had since the introduction of chicken mcnuggets in the '80s. so consumers enjoyed it. that's been a nice trend that they have continued to see, and they're going to lean even further into it in the year to come. and the price is right, right? >> keep on clucking. thank you, kate. love it. coming up -- you say that real carefully. existing home sales fell 19% in 2023 from the previous year, hitting the lowest level in nearly 30 years. but with fed cuts now on the table and the spring selling season around the corner, could housing see a supply surge? the housing season usually gets underway, sort of president's day, right after the super bowl. we'll discuss. [disconcerting stomach gurgle] not again. maybe i should get this looked at? [suggestive stomach gurgle] zocdoc? [talkative stomach gurgle] you're right, i bet they deal with this all the time. dr. finley really puts you at ease.

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welcome back to the exchange. sales of previously owned homes hitting their lowest monthly rate since 2020, 2010, excuse me. as mortgage rates keep potential sellers on the sidelines. diana olick joins us now to dig into data. hello. >> yes, it was looking for a

slight gain in december. i'm not sure why given the sales are based on closing. so that is contracts that were signed in late october and november when mortgage rates were at recent highs, around 8%. existing home sales in december at 1% month of the month, and we're 6.2% lower compared with december 2022. for the full year, sales were at the lowest level since 1995. that's down 19% from 2022's full year sales. prices hit a record high for both december and the full year. the medium price for a home sold in december was up or 0.4% year over year. that of course was due to the still tight supply. although inventory improved slightly, 1 million units for sale at the end of december, down 11.5% from november, but up 4.2% from the year before. holmes state on the market longer in december, an average of 29 days, up from 25 in november. and first time buyers are

really struggling. just 29% of the sales. historically, first timers should be making up 40% of the market. the realtors chief economist said this marks the bottom of the recent sales cycle thanks to the recent drop in mortgage rates, but as we know that remains to be seen, tyler. >> diana olick, have a good weekend. thank you, diana. one segment in housing that seem to be holding up relatively well his luxury real estate. it's up slightly in the third quarter compared with the previous year. thank you mostly to the buyers ability to paper a house in cash. that is according to read thin. meanwhile, not luxury listings fell 22% the same period. so what can we expect this year? sotheby's international, which offers business in over eight countries, releasing it's 2024 outlook report, pinpointing trends and the hot markets to watch. joining us now to discuss this is the white, ceo of sotheby's international realty. mr. white, welcome and good to have you with us.

are you beginning to see, in part as interest rates back off from those highs hit in november and october, are you beginning to see more listings and more activity among buyers, many of whom still have to take a mortgage to buy a house? >> thank you for having, tyler. it's great to be here. the luxury part of the market, actually did a little bit better than we had anticipated in 2023. i have always believed that luxury leads us out ofecsion. clearly, it did during the pandemic. so i've had experience with that, and i am seeing that today. i think what happens is, you know, as we all know interest rates impact everything, tyler. certainly across the board. with the luxury buyer stock market, the equity markets, they are big factors.

those buyers typically have the ability to buy properties with all cash. we've actually seen somewhat of an increase in their, but there are markets historically where all cash buyers are very prevalent. we see that internationally as well. so i think that is an offset to the high interest rates, although they impact everything. i think quite notable with the stock market up almost 20% last year, you know, that is certainly a driver for the luxury market. so even though we were down somewhat year over year, not as much as the general market. >> that's a really good and sophisticated point, that the equity values, the stock market, create the wealth effect. that gives the luxury home buyer the financial cushion that he or she may like as they go into that kind of transaction. i am assuming, when talking about luxury markets where cash transactions are more prevalent,

we are talking about some of the east coast of florida. maybe naples, florida. sarasota, the hamptons, everything goes, those kinds of places. right? is that what we are talking about? >> i happen to be in -- filming this right now in a major property that we have for sale right now. the bidding started yesterday actually. you know, looking at the atlantic ocean right now. >> that sounds pretty nice. i will be out there later today. i'm coming out. save it for me! the chopper will come pick me up. >> okay. >> all right. we hear a lot about foreign buyers coming into the united states, many of them buying all cash. it could be chinese buyers, russian buyers, latin americans, going to the usual suspect places. i am curious. where are americans buying overseas now? what countries? they used to have the golden visas in some countries, some of those programs are expiring,

or not being we helped. where are americans going if they want a foreign destinations? >> well, as you know, tyler, with the euro, with the dollar being stronger, americans have been looking at playing and countries abroad. i think noteworthy would be portugal, which has had a visa program as you outlined. i was in london last month. there are clearly american buyers there. in certain neighborhoods, kind of the four or five top neighborhoods in london. and there's interest there, not just in resales, but properties and developments that were planned, those types of transactions. and then italy has always been a favorite place for americans, paris even, tuscany as i mentioned. >> very interesting. >> those are the top places. and then agrees. from my perspective, greece is

very affordable given the beautiful lifestyle they have. you know, the beautiful ocean views. and i think, from my vantage point, the prices are relatively good. greece is really a function of the economy in years past. they have had some difficulties. they have worked through some of that. so that has proven to be a very good investment. >> we have to leave it there. i have a brand building a place in italy, and he says there are a lot of foreign buyers, u.s. and british, coming into that part of italy. philip, thank you very much. have a great weekend and i hope the house sells. >> thank you, tyler. >> you are very welcome. philip white. and that does it for the exchange! contessa brewer is in the house. round santa is in the house! it does not get better than this. who has it better than this except maybe jim harbaugh? we will be right back.

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