below 4.1%, the two year, just before 4.4% and oil prices this morning, around $73 last i looked. $73.59 for wti. that does it for us today. we're happy to be back in times square. joining us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." stocks look to add to friday's all-time highs as q-4 earnings kick into high gear. we get key data later in the week. ten year, 4.08. s&p is poised to build on its all-time high as investors await the latest print this week. >> we have tech on a tear. the mag 7, they continue to outperform and nvidia is leading

the pack. it's up 20% this month alone. 160 to 180,000, that is at least the estimate for vision pro reorders over the weekend from one widely watched apple analyst. we're going to find out why she does remain cautious on this. let's begin with the markets and their record run. jim, reflections on friday? >> the supersix is so strong. it's amazing. catch that? super six. because tesla is no longer -- >> you're x-ing out tesla. >> you are so clever. you live ambitiously. the most ambitious person ever and your kids are ambitious. fantastic. i think that there's a -- there's a capitulation going on. my friend now says all you have to do is say that you're somehow connected with nvidia and he's got two others. microsoft is. but google is next to say that

they are next to godliness, which is amazon. and david, you were correct to point out that nvidia's run rate, they are ambitious. when you're -- let's say your stock is languishing, just say that you're close to nvidia. >> yeah. >> service now reports they're close to nvidia, see that. >> i do see that. >> if you're close to nvidia, boom. >> about 21% move in the stock. >> i'm saying that's the essence of this market right now. it's a.i. and this is the epicenter. this is the sun. >> it is. and as we've said many times, despite what we're -- what was outperformance likes of which we have rarely if ever seen on the earnings front from nvidia last year, the stock did not respond for a number of months. >> was it 400 -- >> came into this year with a far lower multiple than it had previously. it's made up for that, though,

jim. and i don't know if you think perhaps it's run a little too fast, too far. >> look, i think that the thing that's happened is that people are now saying nvidia is not hardware. nvidia is software. it puts it in the sainted enterprise software category with you can do anything. even if you're hacked, you can do it. >> jim breyer last week said that and i thought that was interesting. >> jim breyer was spot on. >> he had the great call when we were in california last may -- >> yes, he said -- i sat down with him. >> before the huge blowup, blowout, he had that great call on nvidia. >> he was asking me about my dog, my dog -- the stock was at 50 when i named my dog nvidia. >> we're aware that you've had a great call on nvidia. it's one of those companies that the chinese -- i don't know, do we have -- >> we do. >> do we have a picture of -- >> we do. >> even though they can't get

the top check ups, have you seen this? let's take a look. they're all dancing. oh, my. >> i think his head is put on top of that. >> that's just a man living his best life. he's got nothing on bomber, though. >> he's not an angry guy. he comes in piece. bomber was somewhat angry. anyway. i don't want to get too sidetracked -- >> it's his first visit to the mainland in four years and you have this piece about the chinese racing to buy semicap to get in front of -- maybe if we get fresh restrictions. >> i don't think there will be. but i know that -- because i -- i only know that because nvidia is working closely with commerce to be sure that they're playing on the same page. there's two people who matter, jensen wong and jason kelce. [ laughter ] >> okay. i'm glad to hear that.

>> there we go. you know, he does appear often without a shirt. this is not the first time i've seen him without a shirt. did you know that? >> i would -- i know. i think you had a picture with him without his shirt on. there it is, yeah. there it is. he's standing on a box, just so you know. >> sure he is. >> back to chips. >> i'm calling -- >> jason may have eaten a lot of chips -- >> i think amd is worth talking about. >> amd is certainly worth talking about. i wanted to get back to the idea that competitors are starting to figure out ways around nvidia. sam altman is going to the middle east. this is going to take a long time. there is no shortage of those who are like, we got to figure something out out here. >> it's highly unusual. when intel came up with the -- >> to have a lock on it. >> a lock. it's a lock. it really is.

it turned out to be more of a lock than a kicker who can't -- never mind. wide right situation. >> all of this is forcing some to rethink the tone and color from the markets here. over the weekend, rolling out a new probability, 20%, he argues that we end up in a melt-up. >> he did the party like it's 1999 piece and that was -- that coupled with ryan this morning, frank collins was talking about what happens when you have a two-year gap between all-time highs, it's extraordinary. and then david, i don't know if you've caught, but still no matter what, in an election year you know market goes up. >> yeah. >> this is an election year, i forgot. >> how can you -- >> i'm kidding. you can't get away from it. >> it does not mean that the first couple months are rocky. so far we're at january 22nd, it doesn't seem all that rocky. >> no. there will be a lot of rockiness to come.

how could there not. >> eventually. we have a new primary tomorrow. for all we know, maybe nikki haley does well. >> maybe. >> maybe. it seems unlikely given the polling at this point. >> only -- this is bofa this morning, only the two to top are green. not great. >> and you got health care -- gilead which spoke at the jp morgan conference, you see what happens. if you have a drug that doesn't work, it's like, wow, this -- david, this is a drug, late stage advanced lung cancer. i didn't succeed. look, they'll take you apart. >> it's a -- and it's always unfortunate when you see something like that in general because -- just because you hope that it did work. it failed to improve survival in lung cancer patients.

>> it does say, david, it's tech. it's supertech. and then health care. nothing else is really kind of working. >> no. >> it's not working. >> what do you think of that? >> i think that's a true statement. >> we're going to get a bunch of transports this week. >> the rails are so -- >> we have a couple upgrades of unp -- >> american airline, norfolk southern. i think csx could have a great quarter. they're so i think so much that's right, but everyone loves norfolk southern. ting i think it's a good company. you're going to have csx on wednesday and i think that's going to be -- >> bernstein upgrades two of them saying they've been on the sidelines since '22 and we're at the end of a certain part of the freight cycle. >> jb hunt got an upgrade today. >> yes. >> i think you need -- we need something other than the

supersix. we're just going to run out of steam. unless we're once again in that kind of -- >> you just dropped tesla, huh? you just x-ed it. >> we can mention adam jones today, cuts. >> that's what made we go supersix when i read jonas. for all of his showmanship really made me feel like the evs, it's pause, or is it done? it's either pause or done. we do know -- >> his price target is still 345. >> yeah, but that's -- >> why do you -- challenging year, now our price target is still 120 bucks -- >> look, he's saying that there's still some a.i. in robotics thing going on. but i thought this piece read, this tesla piece, it read like lookout, you're not going to have a great quarter.

i had to get rid of it. >> the price cuts coming. weakening of ev incentives. >> you should read this before the show. >> i know. i see you've got it all underlined. what stood out -- >> what are you so grumpy about? >> i don't like it when they're negative and they have a price target that's 60% higher -- >> he's got this piece, it's like -- it's kind of apple not good. >> but does everybody know that? >> wasn't that brilliant? does everyone know how bad apple is. the vision pro was sold out. you had to get it in march the day that they put it on sale. if you went to get it, they told you it's not until march. >> yes, we're watching the shipping delays. by the way, pretty -- signs of a fairly strong start for the item since preorders began on friday. analysts estimates 180,000 headsets were sold over the

weekend and that exceeds the earlier forecast of 60 to 80. shipping times remain unchanged 48 hours after preorders open and that's an indication they argue that demand may taper off after the initial burst. >> that's the usual -- apple doesn't have it together. why would netflix and youtube not want to be part of it? first i thought it was maybe because they didn't think it was good. now i'm thinking they don't want apple to be in charge. once again, they don't want give anything to apple. whatever apple wants to go with, i think it wins. the ship date is march 1. we have someone on our staff that went to buy it. put himself on the list. he's not going to get it until march 1. he's terrific. he went up there -- went up to world headquarters of new york, whatever it is, said i want to be on it. they said, sign up, but you're not going to get anything until

march 1. the analyst says it's not that good. how can they already say something is kind of like tepid? lower the price. >> at some point, one would hope they will. >> they have to. >> if they want to sell more of it. >> that's a very high price. >> they're arguing half a million shipments this year is doable given this initial -- >> that's incredible. for apple, it will barely move anything -- >> a lot of samsung ads this weekend. what is that? >> that's a company in south korea. >> they make phones and chips. >> if you break your phone, which, of course, that means you have to drop it from 32,000 feet. if you drop it from 16,000 it doesn't break. 40,000 feet and you drop your phone, you get a samsung. yeah. >> there are a few ads for the vision pro this weekend as well. >> yes. >> a lot. >> i thought that was great. look, if you just go by -- then

there was a drug ad that my wife said why are they advertising a drug ad on a -- that involved -- don't -- >> just don't. don't. don't. >> what was it doing on? >> women are suddenly watching football because of taylor swift? would you stop? >> i don't know if you noticed, none of the big four automakers, u.s. automakers are buying super bowl inventory. it's all going to be kia and volkswagen. first time in 23 years. >> it's amazing. i know that like ford -- they have a hybrid. people love hybrids. >> they have a hybrid. byd is not buying any ads for the super bowl? >> what do you think if president trump -- which you can still call him that because he was president, what was his tariff. what do you think his tariff is going to be? >> it's not going to change. byd is not going to be able to

bring automobiles to the united states. >> you can't outlaw them? >> don't you think? >> makes a lot of sense. hasn't really articulated that position yet. >> but it's one of the reasons why tesla continues to drop price in china. competition domestically. >> you think there's a mag seven thing. >> i think it's interesting that you decided to get rid of them from the max seven. >> musk was -- he begged not to be the first of the seven to be killed. put in the second of seven. see. eli wallick. >> he was in that wall street movie i was flipping and i saw that. >> is that one you were in. >> the one we were all in. we were all in that one. >> how about the one when you're in the plane? that was the best one. >> i was in a plane. >> you were talking. someone was talking to you. >> dumb money, a recent one.

>> no, it was the one -- the guy from brooklyn was in it. the red hair guy. >> i've been in so many movies, i'm going to go consult my own -- >> margin call. >> that was a good movie. >> did audio get any money from margin call or as little as i did for iron man. i got a hat. >> an arbitrage. >> let's plenty to talk about regarding boeing, citi, calls on lulu this morning when "squawk on the street" comes back. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content

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some premarket gainers including western digital. we had a couple of bullish calls. today it's morgan stanley. they may get a top pick. replacing nvidia where we are

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all right, everybody. get ready because we start trading for the week about eight minutes from now. that doesn't mean we're going to get a mad dash. let's talk a little citi. >> the premise and the reason why i bring this up, carl said something interesting. the market is very limited. health care, right? and then the super six followed by others. this bank, okay, citi is loved, loved, loved by one of the great showmen of the banking industry. citi, number one pick, warren buffett supports restructuring -- >> he went through all the reasons why -- basically just -- he kind of indicated it would be hard if they follow through on their plans, it's going to be hard for them not to do something positive. >> i think it's important, the banks really laid an egg. even the regionals i thought would be a little bit better.

we need this group as a leadership group and it's done nothing. we're only going -- >> are you a believer in james frazier, does buffett chiming in -- >> maybe he thinks that the book value and -- he can explain why the common stock is bloated. i can't. but i do think that this group bombed and now what we need to be saved by the rails and aerospace? i do think that larry is going to put up a great number in march. they good -- i judge everything by the ads. you see them 738 times. what's called heavy rotation -- >> you're heavily influenced by advertising. >> i am. we got an opening bell now, about six minutes away. imagine that. the time goes so fast, doesn't it. don't forget, if if you miss us,

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen. >> as we get set for the opening bell, here's a look at the top ten performing names in jim's charitable trust since the last s&p high back in december 2021, jim, there's lily at the top. >> yeah. lily is something i'm sticking with, still very, very big. it's moved up so much. nvidia, we love that. palo alto has done cybersecurity media. lily remains to me the champ. there's a lot of companies that want to say that they've got a once a month shot for weight. but lily is working on that. a lot of companies saying they've got a pill. lil sli working on that. a lot of companies say that loses fat, not muscle. lily is working on that. they have a second plant that's going to be in action. you still can't -- it's hard to

get their stuff. they're still on backorder. they're the winner. and people want to chip away at what they have. but david ricks is so much more competitive than people realize. all of these different offerings that people talk about. everybody is offering something -- it's like nvidia. these are the two. you can't beat lily and nvidia. >> big piece in "the washington post" about drug prices. they say that the white house sees it as a potent issue that they're going to talk more about in the coming months. will political risks creep in? >> i think they've already determined -- david, the ira, not the ira like the troubles ira, but the ira did have a provision that allows medicare to negotiate. all you got to do is keep pressing that. the door is open and there's a lawsuit. if they just talk about that, merck is trying to fight that. the law change is a clarion

call. you can beat these guys. i never thought pharma would lose in the ira. >> a lot of that has yet to be implemented -- >> does biden know that he won on that? >> i think he's aware, potentially aware. i'm not sure if many americans are aware. >> no, because they have very little publicity. >> that said as we pointed out any number of times earlier in the year, but pharma has one of the best performing groups and merck is up over 9% this year. >> regeneron is terrific. >> yes. and lily has been strong this year. now just about to touch 600 billion in market cap. you may want to replace tesla with lily. >> that's a very good idea. it could be a -- >> get it close. get it close in market cap. one of the winners -- one of the people survived was, indeed -- david, one thing you need to

know about lily, and i know about this with the work i did, we have yet to see their dementia drug, but their numbers are fabulous. >> that would be a wonderful deal. >> let's get the opening bell here in the real time exchange. on the big board. air taxi service, archer aviation. at the nasdaq, it is nbt bank corp. >> when you do the -- it rmemins me of that period, not 1999, but the period where anything could come public. >> 2021. it was the greatest time for spacs. and then they dropped price. but they eventually got to the public markets. obviously not trading anywhere near the $10 the spac once did. jobi is the other one.

they're competing for this market. they once said it would 9 trillion. >> you will never forget that. >> no, i will never -- >> $9 trillion. >> barclays has a archer daniels midland. >> the stock was down 14% in the premarket. let's see where shares are trading right now. all we have on adm at this point is a press release says they have placed on administrative leave their cfo. his leave is pending, an ongoing investigation being conducted by outside council for adm and the board's audit committee regarding certain accounting practices and procedures with respect to adm's new transition reporting segment. by the way, nutrition is not a large part of the company, but it's a relatively new effort for

them. this includes as related to certain intersegment transactions, adm's investigation initiated as a result to responding to a receipt of a volunteer document request it received from the s.e.c. they say they're cooperating. they put them on leave. they've taken a gentleman who had run -- sorry, i just want to make sure i get the name right. he's stepping in as cfo on an interim basis. he's been at the company 20 years. and he is now interim cfo. that's not unimportant. we don't know where this leads. i did make a couple calls. i'm not getting much. even trying to understand voluntary requests from the fcc, a whistle-blower, it may have been a lack of clarity if their filings. they asked for more information. i don't know. and they've hired kirkland and

ellis is acting as legal counsel. two very big law firms involved as well. >> this was devastating. what is with this city? tyson foods that has the suspect cfo -- >> i don't know. it was like -- it's like the informant meets michael clayton. >> i love michael clayton. >> i know. >> the trees -- >> great movie. >> there was some good acting. >> we have very little other than that. when you do send your cfo off to administrative leave, it does obviously concern investors without getting any answers at this point. many decide that they would rather sell -- >> you mentioned the downgrade today. >> yeah. the knives are out. >> that was based on fundamentals as much, jim, as -- >> yes, it was. i can't believe that this western digital call -- who would ever take nvidia off. by the way, jensen -- he

suspended the -- which is with his nvidia group. he's done it for years. he's suspended because of covid and he's back. >> i mean, it's leading the s&p. we have the upgrade the other day which we'll get this week. are you feeling good or bad about analog. >> i'm feeling good. this is nan. kind of -- it's one of the ways that western digital makes a lot of money. but this is a -- sum of the parts story. remember sotps, we used to have those all the time. >> of course. >> is there a chance that you get to realize the sum of the parts -- >> there's only western digital and sea gate. i'm the only person with the pc refresh story. and i'm not backing down. i think that you can -- you still need a hard drive. >> that's almost a two-year high on western digital and almost a double of its december '22 low

of 30. >> and sea gate is doing well. the breathing of maybe analog doing well, the group is -- they're trying to broaden the group out. marvel technologies because it's got touched by nvidia, which is touched by greatness, marvell is strong. these are the kinds of charts that you want, right? >> yes, sir. >> don't you want that? >> i do notice that meta has surpassed the market cap again. >> this year, that follows on incredibly strong performance lasts. of course, as investors rejoiced about the world of efficiency that mark mzuckerberg was ushering in there. >> he bought more nvidia chips than anyone else. that's the news -- >> he bought a lot of nvidia. what's he doing with it?

>> and the company itself now exceeding a trillion dollar market value -- >> let's take a look at the long time. i would be curious to look at a five-year on meta to see as we have come perhaps all the -- do you remember when this -- you do remember -- >> of course. >> i've been a zuckerberg believer for a long time. >> you did have your moments of doubt. that's not five years, guys. there we go. >> but there's a note by piper sandler today, don't worry about the capex spendings. once again, no one is talking about the sunglasses which look better than ray-bans. i bought 10. >> you don't have the meta sunglasses, do you? >> my daughter has it. you can -- you're walking down the street, boom. >> look at that move right off that low. wow. remember that? >> it's not like he's number one

in glass door, just to be sure. service now. nvidia -- >> glass door being the employee rating kind of thing -- >> nvidia and service now. i think it's going to be an amazing quarter. they also, by the way, are mentioned predominantly in the piece they have -- >> i saw your tweet about that. >> they are close to nvidia, david. >> i know. i know. being close to nvidia, as you said earlier, it's all it takes at this point. >> i watched jensen wong walk from one end of his office that he built to another which was to the bar that he has include is charcuterie and he knew everybody. they're like, how are you do i think, bob? he goes, i'm fine. he couldn't remember it was jensen. he knows more people than people know jensen. how do you like that? do you think that's the same way at meta? >> might be. >> might be.

okay. >> are you close enough to zuckerberg to get an invite to the hawaii compound in case things get bad and you can get down to that bunker. >> you should go. >> i know where it is. i flew over it once with a helicopter. it's really part of the great island. it's the size of a portion of the island. >> what's he raising there, again? now i'm trying to forget. it's not bison -- >> it's like -- it's what noah did. he's got a noah situation. all sorts of animals. >> take them down to the bunker? >> why not. >> why not. >> jim, i know you mentioned citi, goldman above 390 is going to take you back. that's a two-year high. >> how about david vinnier coming back. the previous ceo. coming back -- >> what? david vinnier is back. >> former ceo of goldman sachs.

>> i hear he's back. >> back doing what? >> he's on the -- here, goldman sachs names vineyard as the leader. to have him back, i don't know if you remember he was considered to be the straightest of arrows -- >> he's the director. >> we didn't talk about that. >> he's worth 8 bucks. he's amazing. by the way, when you talk to him, he was just so no nonsense. he's a good guy. by the way, he was someone that was revered and the fact that he's back, no one talks about salomon -- >> no, that ended. >> that narrative went away. >> asked and answered. move on. >> do you know how he said our, which it was his interview. he's self-facing and ambitious. >> i really want my kids --

>> that's how he lives. >> i'm just -- ambition, that's me. you guys know -- >> remember you being ambitious in the movie arbitrage. >> i remember margin call. isn't that funny? >> my best work was too big to fail. >> boeing is a drag on the dow. calling for checks on older 737s here. >> what do they want? do they want scalps? does the faa want scalps? is this going to be the next one after this and then the next one? they're leaking out the punishment. i don't know. i know there is only one boeing, there will come a time when everyone is going to recommend it again. but you have to go through this -- >> it's not the worst performing dow component. that would be hd which gets cut today. both hd and lowe's. >> too much complacency.

come it's not for awhile. >> a few more weeks. but their argument is you'll get better entries in the weeks and months. ted decker is doing a fine job there. >> how about the downgrade of lulu? they go to hold. valuation here. >> fatuous. you might as well downgrade chipotle. you can't downgrade lulu and you can't downgrade chipotle. >> i didn't realize that. >> it's unwritten. >> okay. we mentioned gilead towards the top of the show. that stock is down almost 10% on

it failing to get to an end point for an existing drug it has treating other cancers, in this case it was late stage lung cancer. the ceo did speak about the prospects for this particular drug at the jp morgan health care conference. take a listen. >> it's a leading antibody drug. the way it works, it attaches directly to the surface of cells that express a certain protein and it carries with it a payload that kill it is cell. it avoids many of the other complications associated with general chemotherapy. it's been available for three years. it's approved in two forms of breast cancer and a form of bladder cancer. but because of the nature of the drug, it can be used in many more cancer types. and this year, one of the five readouts that we have in very latest stage of development is

the drug in lung cancer. it's the largest, most frequent form of cancer. we're really looking at making advances now not only in breast and bladder, but lung and other cancers as we move forward. >> sadly, not going to happen, it doesn't appear. >> i thought that it could be a key. i think obviously when he spoke, he thought it was a pipeline in itself. we also know that when pfizer bought -- i do think that's the other one that is hopeful. >> yeah. and to your point. the greatest single anticancer medicine of all time. a merck drug. >> yeah. i feel -- obviously i feel bad for everybody this was the great hope. but i did think this had the possibilities of being the next

platform against cancer. you have to take that off the table. brutal. take it off the table. >> jim, there's a -- interesting note on goldman about hiring. they say has some elements of concern. one is that gross hiring trends have slowed dramatically. they're giving a one in five chance of unemployment having a forehandle in the next 12 months. >> that's exactly what they need. i don't know -- look, we can't have it be like this. the fed has to hold. i don't know, we're going to hear from the rails this weekend. but that is goods. in the service sector, i think that there is a story that this administration does want to tell which is there are a lot of people who are now working illegally again as someone who is a restaurateur, i went through adp and said i want everyone vetted. that's not a way that a lot of restaurants work. these people are being employed, thank heavens.

otherwise, busting the budget of new york, but i do think that that's going to cause some of hiring to slow. and when i asked the labor secretary that, no one was talking about the. no one wants to talk about the million people who came to this country who are being treated miserably because i guess you're not supposed to treat them nicely. but they are working. >> yeah. >> been watching the participation rates creep up. goldman is sticking by their view that the fed is going to start to cut and they think probably in march despite some of the -- >> i know. i don't know why goldman is sticking to that. i love goldman's work. but i just don't see how that's possible. we have just a plethora of strong numbers and i don't see hiring getting nearly as weak as these guys do. i'm trying to figure out what industries are cutting back. obviously, the commercial real estate business, they're not putting up a lot of towers, but that's not a big portion of our

economy anymore. and we have a lot of money coming in from the programs that biden put through. >> well, the layoff news on friday included companies like macy's with some news of its own today. >> macy's is trying so hard to -- i don't know, throw in the chairs off the ship to save the weight. i don't know. >> and they've got another entity that wants to put pressure on the board of directors -- >> who are these people? >> i don't have a lot to share on this one. >> who would -- i mean, you -- you must know -- >> i haven't paid close attention. >> you don't know ark house management. it's the company taking over the largest department store on 34th street and you don't know ark house? how about brigade? >> i don't know them either. i was busy with my next project. i can't discuss it. [ laughter ] but i was getting into my -- i

was getting into character. >> yeah, i -- >> sorry i didn't follow ark house. >> what about new star. >> you had that one? >> we had ray washburn on who is the chairman, by the way, on friday. but, of course, he couldn't d te tell us about it. let me get you the particulars. it's 0.4 for s sanuko. but they are saying that it diversifies their business, adds scale and captures benefits of vertical integration by combining two stable businesses, jim. >> it's crude. people don't like crude. nat gas is too much. >> 150 million. that's third year following

close. you've got perhaps some skepticism on the part of sunoco shareholders. some pressure setting up the spread. >> this maybe a trump-related situation. >> why? >> well, because trump is going to stack it with people who want oil from a straw. >> we've never had higher production numbers. >> we're crushing it. but we're not drilling as much. we're using fewer rigs. trump was not in favor of -- to some degree evs. >> he's anti-ev, isn't he? and windmills. doesn't like those windmills. >> they hurt birds or something. or whales. new star is a bad one. we're going to use more oil. the brits are trying to get rid of natural gas heating. >> yeah. nat gas down five straight. and libya restart has had oil

under a little pressure. i think it has some -- >> i can't wait to see sarah. >> a lot coming up tonight. as we go to break, let's watch bonds. the data is largely stacked towards the latter end of the week as we get gdp on thursday. pce on friday. but some pmis rolling in on wednesday. right now, ten-year, 4.09. >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. - tonsillitis! - nostril! uh-uh... bill! uh-huh... - hip-hop! - limping! mmhmm! medical bills! uh-huh! - pancakes! - cash! who pays you cash when you have medical bills? grrr! no idea. [tapping] gap! the gap left by health insurance? who pays cash to help close that gap? aflac!

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take a look at the s&p heat map. pretty green here as we blasted through 4800 last week. 4864 this morning, as it's really financials, tech and industrials carrying a lot of water this morning. th j ag ing to get stop tradin wiimfter a very short break.

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he's saying it's going to be good then i'm with him. >> they stay in what you call it, the super six? >> super six. >> get rid of tesla, sorry, especially after what musk -- >> tesla wasn't in the super six. >> netflix is only $200 million. disney is not in the super six in case you thought -- >> they're not. >> put all sorts of smart people in a board room why do they not produce what seems to be good advice? i mean ever look at the disney board. it's anybody i ever want to work with, but together, i don't know. >> what are you going to tackle tonight, jim? >> wow. get me? no. you know, today we're just -- i don't know, we're -- >> what do you have on the show? >> i worked all weekend on it. >> forget what you got on the show? >> no. >> we've got -- >> speaking of the weekend on friday we sds for your playoff picks and you went four for four.

>> had to do the money line. >> yes. >> i -- i was hot on that. >> i have good stuff. >> got a good show tonight? >> i do. best show. great show. didn't you read my memo this morning or not? did you read my memo at 5:00? >> i read this memo. >> 5:08 a.m. memo. everything you need to know. >> wolf likes "mad money" audience. >> i do a piece over the weekend which lays out what i'm going to talk about. >> we can't wait to tune in and find out. >> thank you. >> "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time. bulls definitely have the ball. dow is up 200. don't go anywhere.

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stock up today, sip well, tomorrow. drizly. good monday morning. welcome another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber, live for you from post nine of the new york stock exchange. take a look at stocks we're building on the record flows. the s&p up another more than half a percent right now. dow jones industrials up 13% after a strong week last week fueled by big tech ahead of big earnings. the only two sectors weaker are consumer staples and energy.

everybody is up. real estate is leading the charge in terms of sectors right now. take a look at treasuries and we've seen firmer yields across the board in the last week or so. they're backing off a little bit today, the 10-year above 4%, 4.09%. 2-year note yield the rate sensitive one, 4.4%. >> let's get l.e.i. to kick off a busy week for data. rick santelli has it. >> we're starting out the week with a minus 21 in a row, minus 21 months in a row l.e.i. had negative monday over month change. minus .1% is the leading economic eindicator read for december and even though down 0.3% as expected 21 consecutive months in a row. back 22 months, it was at zero which wasn't a positive number, but that's the comp with minus 0.1%. march of 2022 is the last time it was unchanged.

you have to go back another month prior to that, february of 2022 to have a positive number. an integer. we see interest rates as sara pointed out are a bit lower but still elevated for 2024. sara, back to you. >> all right. rick, i do think it's interesting that this is going to become an ignored indicator down so much on the negative side of things. rick santelli, thank you very much. it's a busy week ahead as far as economic data and earnings. remember the fed is in quiet period ahead of its rate decision next. we will get gdp, a look at the first q bitcoin etf, the fed's preferred gauge on friday. thursday the ecb. tonight the bank of japan. and lots of earnings from tesla and netflix and intel. i think 70 s&p 500 names are going to be reporting as the chart to me overnight, which i think really tells you a lot about the action, we've talked

about how strong the u.s. market is, how about japan? japan continues to melt up. japan versus hong kong and you can see, you know, whether it's a beneficiary, japan is for the, you know, anything but china trade, michael hartnett wrote about from bank of america or the easy monetary policy we've seen there and the weakness of the japanese yen helps the exporters. so much enthusiasm for this market which continues to make new highs and we got it again overnight. money coming out of china-related equities despite the fact that they're trying to add liquidity. it's an interesting setup. it's not like everything is going up right now and everything is peachy when it comes to the economic outlook. a lot of negativity on china. >> that continues well for some obvious reasons, including the underlying fundamentals of the economy and the real gdp is and deflation. questions, though, as to whether they're going to have to even super charge the export part of their economy, which, obviously, drives the chinese economy, given lack of consumer demand and what that's going to mean

for world markets and for the latest trade wars and things of that nature, sara. but we have talked about the nikkei and talked about its performance last year and followed through to your point as well in the early going. >> and a lot of people think there's more room to run. bank of america put out a chart about how it's under owned and there's a lot more potential run up. i was just in davos last week for the world economic forum and i have to say, you always -- there's a consensus, right, the davos consensus and everybody talking about the same thing, not a lot of worry about the global economy or the u.s. economy. one dinner who expects recession this year, nobody raised their hand. >> is that a bad sign? i wouldn't think they have the best predictability. >> davos' track record is perfect. >> perfect. >> it's contrarian. ai was the whole thing. i mean like ai hype, all the storefronts in davos get taken over by like a few years ago it's crypto, now ai. that's all everybody wants to talk about. very little consensus on how it's going to change our economy

and how it's going to -- how it should be regulated and what we should be worried about and the opportunities are, but that's where the, i would say, global elite are focused. >> you're going to bundle this into programming. >> we've got some great cnbc leaders rolling out this week in prime time every night and i'll give you a taste of that later on, but we sat down for some long form interviews about different things like talked to aramco that's going to air tonight about what's happening in oil production and this idea of peak oil. as far as the markets, though, and the focus right now, you know, we always talk about the fed every morning. why? i thought bank of america fund manager survey, they did a survey about what's the most important issue for the markets right now for stocks, the fed was by far the most ahead of corporate earnings. if you go for bond prices what most important driver is it's an even higher percentage there. the fed is the key. here's the thing, guys, the fed

is data driven so the market is fed driven, the fed data driven. the data has been okay, and so now we get into this discussion about how many rate cuts are they going to do. i read fed governor waller's speech last week about how they have to be careful with it, and what's interesting is this stock market run up we've seen in the last week has come amid decreased odds of a march cut and decreased odds of six cuts this year and inflation expectations that have risen a little bit. this market just wants to go higher. >> yeah. it is interesting, the market may be less obsessed with the pace and simply more obsessed with the direction. i noticed in that fund manager survey last week the percentage of respondents who see rates going up, 3. 3% of the bofa survey sees rates going higher. >> i'm surprised that there were three because i haven't talked to anybody who expects more rate hikes this year. the data coming better. we're expecting fourth quarter gdp this week to be around 2%.

remember we thought -- >> 2.4 if you believe atlanta. >> hard to imagine, you know, after 525 basis points of hikes and we got a 4.9% gdp the quarter before the survey, the business, you know, outlook survey. it continued to point to improvement on sales, on profit margins, on prices changed and on costs from where we were before. there's plenty of evidence that this is not like an economy in dire urgent need of cutting rates. although let's see what pce shows. if it shows continued disinflation they could do that to preserve the soft landing. >> let's talk about the markets as sara mentioned back to record highs. our next guest does say uncertainty over fed policy, the concentration of the rally, elevated valuations may be an economic slowdown, might suggest further consolidation is ahead. chief market strategist tony dwyer is with us. great to see you. you've done a nice job of not getting too emotional on either parts of the swing in the past

year, i would argue. what do you make of the last push? >> so which market? i think sara just did a great job of giving the recap of the fed policy and the inflation expectations bumping up, but carl, you know, the russell 2000, which is up about 2% today, was down 7% from the peak, as the s&p is making a new high, so that broadening, we came into the year thinking it was opposite day, opposite from where the stage was set for a rally going into the end of october. you were historically over bought. fed expectations have gotten down to the level i thought they would be, and that was totallies outrageous at the end of the year in the third quarter, so at this point there's such confusion about what the fed policy is going to be and as sara suggested it's data driven. we have a lot of data ahead of us. >> your job is to make a call. >> of course. >> sounds like you're reticent to make a bold call in either direction. >> over the next 6 to 12 months

we did a study that showed when the percentage of s&p components above the 50-day moving average over the course of ten days gets to 90%, so you've got the vast majority of stocks in an intermediate above the 50-day, for more than a day, for ten days, every time you've been higher 9 to 12 months later. that's really the call. the question becomes, where do you get more aggressive in owning those stocks? that's where we're a little bit dicey near term, where we've had the run up in the s&p 500, we've had this consolidation or intermediate term consolidation in everything else, so we're kind of in this no man's land and what we need to see is maybe a little bit more fear come into the market to really attack for that 9 to 12-month gain, carl. >> you know, tony, when it comes to the -- that broadening that we thought or many thought we would see and, obviously, we've got the opposite with the continued strength of the mag six as we call them, we're leaving tesla off of it as per

jim cramer, what do you -- you know, what are your expectations on that front? can that kind of momentum continue at this point given how surprising, perhaps, it's been? >> i really think it can. i think that's got to be the story. you're already at 33% of the top ten stocks percent of the s&p 500 is higher than it was during the nifty 50, higher than during the peak of dotcom and both of those ushered in a 15-year decline in the top ten percent stocks as a percent of the s&p. the troops started to catch up with the generals, and it wasn't because the generals tanked. it's because you got this revamp in the broad market and the sign of that is in that indicator that we came up with, when those, you know, the percentage of stocks above 50-day moving average in the s&p 500 gets not just to 90%, but does it for ten days, that's a bullish indicator. all the market momentum stuff is telling you, you want to add to

exposure. we want to do it when there's more clarity on the macro data. >> we're going to get a fair amount ofs that this week. maybe we'll check back. tony dwyer, thanks as always. >> have a great day >> as we head to break our road map for the rest of the hour. interview with the ceo of ralph lauren, his read on the consumer, chinese market and how ai plays into this growth plans. >> as we discussed many technology stocks hitting fresh or record highs, so we'll talk about how you should position in that sector from here. and energy the worst performing sector of the year. a number of big oil names hitting 52 week lows. street still bullish on the group. we'll talk about why when "squawk on the street" continues.

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i think we're still ahead of accelerating fundamentals, continued focus on margins, and then the ai wave, which is really not even hitting yet. the hype is there. the revenue rally of ai is not happening until the baf of this year into early next year at least in software. it's happening in semis with nvidia. but we think the setup looks good relative to fundamental strength. we hope 20 plus comes first week of january and every one of these said demand is stable, no one is saying it's back to the excitement that we saw during covid, but i think we're back to a better spot in demand from all of our channel checks. you're hearing it across internet and sfair in all the checks that we do. >> so i'm curious why it's not showing up in revenues for the tech companies. i was mentioning everyone was talking ai in davos. everybody has their use cases and it's happening now, whether it's a medical device company or

a furniture retailer, they're talking about how they're using ai and working with their enterprise software providers to do it. why isn't it being monetized yet? >> i think part of it is early adopters is number one. two, the analogy of, you know, you put a pool in your backyard, you know, no one really cannonballs in right away. you're seeing people dip their toes in. it's analogous to having young kids. they're slow into the water. the same with cios. slow in the ai water because you're risking your potential corporate data, you're risking bad outcomes, you're risking your data, and so i think what you're seeing is companies are putting big governors on ai, the biggest constraint in our work is really around security and safety of the data, and so i think everyone is in experimental phase. no one is in a mass market rollout. that will move from experimental or dip your toe into the

cannonball phase-, end of '24 to '25. you can see it in microsoft, amy hood got into little ai revenue in the front half, and more ai in the back half starting now in their fiscal year. even cfos and ceos are guiding to this. i think to most people, the ai movement is all hype right now, and you would expect the revenue based on all the conversations everyone is having around it, the reality is it's tiny. for most tech companies it's local single digit it percentage of their revenue. >> brent, since we have you on, i think you cover, i'm pretty sure i see on your coverage list you cover palantirand you have a sell on it. stock is up almost 9%. any idea what's going on, and i'm curious your thoughts given that move? >> today i think david you're seeing a broader rally in tech, and so everything is green. i don't know specifically to what is happening at palantir. we like other names better.

we think that palantir has done a really nice job in terms of getting their momentum going in ai, but we like other stories better. >> what do you like best heading into earnings, given the suffer setup and the second half ramp in ai revenue? >> microsoft is our top large cap and amazon our top internet name. we like salesforce.com for margin improvement. their margins are at 30. they're on a diet and they can drive incremental margin upside. >> you'll hear from marc benioff later in the week as part of our leaders special. thank you very much, brent. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> on another strong day for the nasdaq. after the break shares of ralph lauren under performing to begin the year but the company's ceo says he's bullish on 2024 and sees opportunities for groh.wt hear from him right after this break.

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retail in focus as investors continue to watch for cracks in what has been a strong surprisingly strong consumer.

i sat down with ralph lauren's ceo patrice louvet in davos and discussed his outlook for the company heading into 2024, the global market and the hottest topic this year, artificial intelligence. >> we're cautiously optimistic as we get into 2024. i think one of the things that really gets characterized the work we've done with ralph lauren in particular, is our ability to build in resilience into our business model, into our brand, so that you can count on ralph lauren irrespective of what the environment will look like. we had to navigate covid, the inflationary pressure situation, and so we feel confident going into 2024. >> how has your business changed most since covid? it was a reckoning for retail like yours. >> if you look at the way consumers have been shopping, there's been a significant pivot we have to make towards digital, and that's been a big new capability for us. it stays ride about a quarter of our business is digital.

the second area, as you look at how people dress and what's changed, you hear about quiet luxury and in times of uncertainty, consumers are fwrav tating towards brands they know and product they trust, and we're seeing that evolve as consumers move to more sophisticated casual dressing. i think, you know, we just learned to build a bigger agility muscle, right. you know, we have supply chain challenges as we speak with what's happening in the suez canal and one of the new muscles the company developed is be nimble and agile, stay true to who we are but navigate with agility. >> how is that affecting you, the tensions and houthi attacks in the red sea? >> we've built over time and covid was a big enabler for this, a resilient and flexible and diversified supply chain. the impact for us is not material. it's a disruption, of course, but it's not material. >> where are you investing? like geographical diversity? >> yes, so our core market is

the u.s. we want to make sure that we're driving that successfully. china, as you and i have talked in the past, is a major opportunity for us. china is about 67% of the company. precovid it was around 3%. we made good progress. when you compare the penetration of luxury companies in china, it's more 20, 30, 40% to their business. we have a lot of runway in china. southeast asia in general is a significant opportunity for us. and then we're starting to plant seeds in india. i know that's a topic this week, right. with really a lens to the next 10, 20 years to make sure we're building the right brand positioning, the right brand equity, so that we can benefit from that in the many decades to come. >> china has been a good story and a growth driver as you mentioned, even amid questions last year and going into this year about the strength of their recovery, how much china is willing to add stimulus, to

juice retail sales and economic growth. >> right. >> what are you seeing on that front? >> china has been very consistently strong for us. we saw that in our last quarter release. i think what team is doing really well there, is we're focused on top six city, tie pay, hong kong, shang hang, shanghai, beijing. we're building ecosystems with the flagship store, polo boutiques, surround sound digital and quality whole sell. on the storefront where we sell our most expensive cashmere sweaters loved by our chinese consumers and we're leaning into that. we've seen nice diversity in terms of the make juch of the customer base. younger consumer. more diverse. i think the team is doing a great job bringing our purpose to life, which is global and universal, and weaving that into the chinese culture. >> you said the most high-end cashmere sweaters. >> yes. >> how much is a high-end cashmere sweater? >> there's a broad range. you know if you're ready for it,

you could spend $1,000 or more on that. >> i'm asking because i do wonder why ralph lauren doesn't get the valuation of some of the european luxury companies which it feels like you're trying to play in that area and competing against. >> we made good progress on valuation. we want to continue to drive that. our goal is to be associated with the key luxury players. i think, you know, when you look at our business in europe and asia, clearly our positioning is there. we have work to do in north america to elevate our positioning. as we continue to do that, i think the financial community will recognize that and we'll continue to see our valuation come closer to the historical luxury players. >> another top of the agenda issue in davos is generative ai, and its explosion on to the scene. i know that you're thinking about, exermts meanting with it. how do you think it's going to change the fashion business? >> so this business started with creativity. i don't think that goes away.

i reassure ralph and tell him, ralph, you will not be obsolete by generative ai. at the same time we see a number of areas where it can be incredibly helpful. on the productivity front i think that's consistent for all industries, not just fashion, right. programming, highly effective from a programming standpoint. it's helping us write copy on our website, for example, and then on the consumer engagement front it's helping us develop e-mail and messaging from consumers. from an ideation standpoint we see it as an aid to creativity and concept development. our teams are starting to play with it. i got a chance to see them recently where we were working on u.s. open uniforms for 2024, we sponsor a number of sports programs, the u.s. open being one, olympics coming up this year in paris, and they use it as an aid for creativity and inspiration, but then, the human element takes over. >> right. >> it doesn't replace designers. it helps designers. >> not in the way we think about

design in our creativity. some parts of the industry are just about replicating what the design companies are doing. they may resort more to that. that's not our philosophy. >> i think it's funny he had to reassure ralph he would not become obsolete by ai. the great ralph lauren. that was patrice louvet. it gives you a taste of some of the conversations mixed between the ai use case and opportunities and different industries including fashion, the economic outlook, china still a really strong story for them. we got numbers from risch month as well, cardi yeah doing well in china. burberry is struggling more. this is louvet's mission is to bring rick rieder ralph lauren as a competitor against the peen luxury giants, rich month, lvmh and get a stock evaluation on par with that. >> you have to get margins on par with that. >> he's done work. >> there's a reason one of the richest men in the world, right.

>> yes. >> amazing at lvmh. i'm not sure the cost of manufacturing is that different. >> no. and i think he has to continue to elevate the brand in places like north america where, you know, outlet were a big part of the story for a while and before he came in, it did go very mass market into the wholesale division. he's trying to work on that in an effort to boost margins. >> yeah. >> aur it's called in retail. >> the pure luxury brands have the mode where they don't have to discount at all. have we hit peak oil? what the ceo of aramco is saying about that and oil demand when we return from a break.

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1-800-376-4376. here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. i'm pippa stevens with your cnbc news update. a judge postponed donald trump's defamation trial for at least one day. the former president was expected to testify today in the case which will decide how much he will have to pay for defaming writer e. jean carroll. both had already arrived at the

courtroom when the judge put the trial on hold because a juror and two of trump's lawyers weren't feeling well. family members of hostages held by hamas stormed an israeli parliament session today after prime minister benjamin netanyahu told them there's no real proposal from hamas for another hostage deal. an estimated 130 hostages are still being held in gaza. and new hampshire democrats say voters in the state are receiving a robocall imitating president biden's voice telling them not to vote in tuesday's primary election. the president actually won't be on the ballot because the democratic national committee mandates that south carolina's primary is the first sanctioned contest of the 2024 nominating race. however, local supporters started a write-in campaign for the president. it's not yet clear how many people received the robocall. sara back to you. energy a big topic at the

world economic forum in davos amid growing geopolitical tensions. i had a chance to sit down with the ceo of aramco, to discuss amid all of this push towards clean energy and renewables and evs, whether we've hit peak oil. listen. >> let's look at 2023. last year. we talked about peak oil before that, but last year, we were 102.5 million barrels. 2024, they are talking about 1.5 million. >> not yet? >> 2025 talking about another million barrel. but you see, at the same time, you see, when people back in the '90s or '80s when they joined, 80% of the energy used was from fossil fuel.

today, it's 80%. but the scale is higher. >> wouldn't go there on peak oil. i also asked nasser about global oil demand right now. here's what he said. >> well if you look at the forecast they're talking about 104. this is in the middle of economic headwinds. still we are not over what the economic situation we are in, but still, it's a healthy growth. if you think about it, even last year, we have grown by about 2.6 million, so if you talk about '24, growth of 1.5 million barrels, that is significant. there is demand and there is a significant growth, and that's what we are seeing from our customers. >> healthy growth, significant demand. for the full conversation tune in tonight for a cnbc leaders special at 8:00 p.m. eastern

time. he's been at the helm for several years including taking this company through the world's biggest ipo, which happened regionally as opposed to some of the expectations leading up. got them through the attacks by the houthi rebels, the drone attacks. we went through leadership and because we had a long time to talk about it, we got a window into not only his leadership, but how unique of a company this is. remember, one that is, what, 98% owned by the saudi government. he doesn't make decisions on oil production, because they're the opec producer, but has made a lot of other really important decisions leading and guiding this company, including toward this future whereyhaving to div chemicals, for instance, into renewable energy, and how he's thinking about doing that. >> they're enormous in chemicals as well. >> he's done $95 billion worth of deals to bring aramco more into chemicals and refining. >> it's like sitting down, even more so, with darren woods or

mike worth. they're running an enormous company. one of the largest market caps in the world. >> right. one with some interesting geopolitical considerations as well because of the saudi government and because of china and they're bullish on china and tightened the relationship there with china and with some of the chinese oil companies as well. we talked about that, what he's seeing both economically and geohe politically. >> all right. let's -- >> for everyone to watch. >> of course. what time? >> 8:00 p.m. eastern tonight. cnbc. >> let's stick with energy here. still as we take a look, nasser will join sara at 8:00 p.m., a top pick for many across wall st street. that is overall energy stocks despite a tough start to the year. to brian sullivan and the cnbc team collecting all the names to watch here and as you see, brian joins us now with a breakdown. good morning. >> good morning, david and sara and everybody. we're going to start with

energy, but then i have a surprise at the end. we're going to show you all the snox any sector on four or five top pick lists of wall street firms for the year. quick note, it's taken a lot of time, shout out to mike bloom for helping me sort through mountains of e-mails over the past month. it could be a stock or two we missed. this was a massive list. we think this is a good list. to the names on wall street's top picks list and since i cover energy at cnbc, let us start with that sector. all the stocks appearing on at least one top pick list for the year and it's fair to say, guys, that energy is not overall well loved. there are only 23 different energy or energy-related stocks across more than 35 firms we track on any kind of top picks list. the first list is the pure energy stocks, oil and gas companies. you have exxon, chevron. we know that. you have coterra, original f.a.a.n.g., diamondback, civitas, two canadian names, sun corps, slb, formerly

schlumberger and wind companies as well, you have solar, first solar and ge on the wind side. to some of the more energy related stocks appearing on wall street analyst favorite picks of the year. some names like air products and lind. why are they on energy? they're hydrogen plays. chemical companies, huthsman and pentair, help oil and water push through, energy storage company flus when pops up, west coast, altus, a renewable energy name, and ev maker rivian on at least one top pick list this year. so guys, there are the 23 energy or energy related names most loved by wall street this year. you know, as i said, i'm not just tracking energy stocks here. in fact, there's a number of names so here's what we did. we went through, carl, and we basically sorted all the stocks, and we found out how many are on multiple top picks or best bet

type lists. for example, exxon and chevron, they're on three different firm's lists, but there are stocks showing up on four or five or more top pick lists and we spent a lot of time breaking them out. only 14 stocks on four or five different firm's lists. some names you think, some names you don't. apple, obvious, bank of america, citigroup, csx, look at d.r. horton. howmet aerospace on four lists, you got jpmorgan chase, pinterest, morgan stanley, nike, salesforce, t-mobile, uber, and wynn resorts on four or five favorites lists this year. guys, tonight, on "last call" we're going to show you the stocks that are on six or more top picks lists. there are six of them including the one stock most loved by more than ten different firms on wall

street. that's "last call." it goes from 7:00 to 8:00. watch "last call" from 7:00 to 8:00 and roll into "leaders" with amin nasser. how does that sound? >> sounds like a perfect evening. what could be better. >> being at home. >> watching you. brian, thank you. >> thanks. >> and then me. brian sullivan. for more on the energy picture and my conversation with the ceo of aramco, tune in after "last ca" "bclltocn leaders" 8:00 p.m. eastern time. don't go anywhere.

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>> my personal advice don't get involved but i don't want to tell any of you what to do. it's a free country. >> we use artificial intelligence to design a cold drink. it's about can we turn cool ideas into ideas at scale? can this generative ai really operate on massive scale? got a couple of movers for you this morning including shares of ar cher daniels midland see them down 13%. a number of downgrades. the company did issue fourth quarter guidance that seemed to be below many analysts' prior expectations. the key reason why the stock is down, is that it has placed its cfo on leave amid an investigation into accounting practices specific to its

nutrition reporting segment, including as related to certain intersegment transactions. apparently this was initiated after the sec asked for a voluntary document request. they gave them the documents. they're cooperating. whatever they saw, at least, warrant the suspending their cfo. they have an interim cfo that stepped in. take a look at shares of affirm. the company we follow, up over 9%. maybe just on rates getting better this morning. hard to know specifically what's behind that. there have been a number whether affirm, upstart, palantir, general significant moves this morning among certain technology-related names. >> the ark innovation fund is up 4%. that's a good benchmark of the tech names rallying today. housing, new and pending home sales data out later this week and with average mortgage rates below 7%, buyer demand is coming back but our next guest warns of challenges ahead such as, quote, the lock-in effect of

current homeowners. robert joins us, compass co-founder and ceo. it's good to see you. welcome. >> thank you for having us. >> you were saying that things are looking a little bit different as we go into 2024. how? >> it's official as of friday. the number of homes that sold last year, 4.1 million, the lowest level since 1995 and the population today is 27% bigger than 1995. this year all the key signs are pointing in the right direction, specifically inventory, because more inventory equals more sales and you have 7% more inventory today than this time a year ago. you can see as well, 5% more homes under contract today than a year ago. >> so is it that mortgage rates, the relief? is that's what's changing things? >> 8.1% mortgage rate last fall was difficult, but it's free marketing to the real estate market saying 6.8 is a good deal. >> is that working if. >> it is. more buyers than sellers and

sellers today are more realistic on pricing than they were last fall. the modest buyer strike led to 39% of all homes in the fall having a price drop, so prices are better now than they were. >> the redfin data on listings, new home listings, up 2.7 year on year. do you think that's low? >> we're going to continue to see more he demand for new homes than existing because people today want things that are new and there's not enough homes available for sale in the existing home market because of the rate lock in effect. this time last year, 72% of homeowners were locked in at 4% or below. now it's 59%. so although it's still high, it's much better than it was a year ago. >> do people try to beat each other to the punch before spring comes or wait for spring like in classic fashion? >> in the last month i've spoken to over a thousand of our agents and asked how is the market going. the most common quote i've heard

is this is the busiest january i've had on record, and more buyers are calling me over the holiday season than ever before. they were working over christmas, they were working on new year's day and few new year's eve. buyers are trying to beat people to the punch. >> regionally you give us a breakdown. continue to be the warmer places or low tax states that benefit and what about the pandemic darlings, have they come back down to earth? >> the low tax warm weather states are still very attractive. i think florida has more staying power than some of the other markets. texas, carolina still strong, but florida it's just benefitted longer than the others. it is a vacation community that the entire country can go to. if you're -- it is a retirement community so if you're planning a retirement five years from now, you can accelerate it

earlier. there's enough of the country that's working from home where it does make it more viable. i would also say the spillover, migration markets, and so markets, people move to when getting priced out of their core market. say san francisco moving to las vegas or sacramento. you have d.c. moving to charlotte or raleigh or austin moving to san antonio. >> 6.8% is still a lot higher than where are you? most americans have under 4% rates, right? >> yes. 6.8% is still high. but that's encouraging for me to see the market be this strong with 6.8. the last year it wasn't this strong at 6.8. it shows that demand has been building over the course of last year and you can only hold back the market for so long. >> robert, thank you for the update. always good to get color from you. robert reffkin from compass. >> still ahead, a look at the

stock rout hitting chinese equities and erasing millions and much more than that in market cap. live to beijing for the latest after the break. an interview you don't want to miss next hour, the ceo of marriott is with us and get a read on the consumer, when we continue. u saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently.

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china is keeping its low prime rates unchanged as stocks continue to sell off. the hang seng approaching its lowest levels since 2009. the csi 300 is index of mainland china shares is hitting multiple lows. eunice yoon has the latest from beijing. the sentiment has to not be particularly positive right now, eunice. >> reporter: absolutely not, d david. it is very pessimistic. shanghai hit a five-year low, and chinese property plays. the central bank's decision was expected, but it's just feeding into the growing belief here that the government is not willing to make any meaningful stimulus or take any big action to try to shore up the economy. in fact, most of the speculation around the nonaction by the

central bank was that the authorities are much more concerned about the potential downward pressure that they could put on the rmb. authorities are very sensitive about the possibility of the rmb moving quickly, especially when it declines because they're worried about the potential for capital flight. traders have been talking today about how state banks appear to be making moves to try to stabilize the yuan, shore it up by selling dollars. there are also some reports in the market today that the regulator has been making unofficial guidance to some local funds to come up with new equity products in order to stabilize the market. state media has also been weighing in, the state news agency has been saying that, trying to debunk a narrative we've been hearing, at least outside of china, that china, with all of its economic woes

and problems with its demographic has hit peak china. they ran a piece today saying it's an oppertune time. >> it's been many years since i was there, but there was a great interest in china amongst investing. this was years ago. they would go to parlors and buy stock and sell stock like it was horse racing. i don't know to what extent there is that enthusiasm but that what is the mood and action on the ground amongst the domestic investors? >> reporter: the mood is not very op mystic. i was talking to someone yesterday about this, about where do you invest? a lot of people here are really wondering where they can find any type of yield. the stock market doesn't look very good. today there was a lot of talk on the internet, saying that, you

know, i've lost so much money. that's the sentiment i've been hearing just in conversations. also the property sector hasn't been doing well. so, it's home values going down, where do you put your money. people have been talking about, you know, where can they find investments overseas? it's just gotten much more strict. you could potentially be flagged if you take money out of the country. it's a really, really difficult environment right now for average investors. >> and i feel like we should separate the near-term issues, eunice, which you describe on the economy, the cyclical issues, and some longer term structural issues. the number that stood out to me was that foreign direct investment actually went down last year for the first time in years. so, it's not just investors that are worried about the economy. it's businesses worried about -- i mean, big things, like derisking and geopolitical risks and i wonder how much of a long-term challenge that's going to be for china. >> reporter: i think it's going to be a really big long-term problem. people have been discussing how they feel that the outlook for

china just isn't very good. when you look at all of those things. deflation, derisking, demographics, debt, everything. the outlook has been something that people are talking about. one of the reasons why we're seeing all this money outflow from the chinese markets. >> eunice, as always, appreciate your time and insights from beijing. thank you. don't miss on the other side of this break, we'll have marriott ceo. of course, our live market coverage, that continues at all times. back after this. a car is a car... is a spa. an office. hi! hello! a cinema. so automated. yes, the definition of a car changes... but one thing stays the same. it's a mercedes-benz.

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welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla. sara eisen. today the street debates the moves on the stock. we'll talk with hsbc's chief strategist on why he's cutting risk exposure. more from our conversation with the ceo of ralph lawyeren. advantages and risks he's seeing from a.i. marriott unveiling new growth numbers. with shares up 40% in the past year. tony capuano is with