good afternoon. the rally is rolling along. more record highs, including the dow, 38,000 for the first time. what needs to happen for this

to keep checking?>> tyler mentioned the dow hit a record high. about 38,000, a little more than a month after crossing 37,000 for the first time. the s&p 500 getting a new record today. you see the dow up third in the nasdaq composite up 4/10 of a percent. the nasdaq composite did not hit a record but the nasdaq 100 did, meaning that the top 100. >> you can see this in a chart of the russell 2000. that performance is one sign, but the bulls are winning. we are to the markets stand right now? how do you read the tea leaves?>> the first thing to note is a new record high in the s&p 500, especially after a long drought, is generally a show of strength that should

continue as opposed to a warning sign. if you look at the prior dozen or 14 times where the s&p has made a record high after your without one, the returns are better than average. obviously, it's no guarantee. clearly, there have been exceptions one of the quibbles that people will point to is the unevenness of the game, especially last few weeks we have a small handle of the mega cap tech stocks. we can take comfort in the fact that it has also occurred as economic data has been better than expected in the odds of a rate cut have declined, which suggests that the good news for the economy is good news for the s&p 500. and for most of the earnings outlooks. i would say a net positive sign, even though we've not had enough payback in the fourth quarter rally in the average >> just yet. >> stick around, as we want to

keep the conversation going. our next guest things it's due for a pause. welcome. good to have you with us. you heard mike talk about what history tells us, and it tells us when the s&p hits a new high after not having hit one for your more, the performance is usually pretty good. is what you are saying, does it mean we will have a pause and then will pick up and move higher? >> unfortunately, this time is a bit different, given what has happened post-covid. to me, a lot of the good news is the price. people see inflation coming down. that was something we forecasted. now we are worried that inflation is moving from a covid thing to something of an end of the business cycle thing. wages rise and stay elevated and that puts upward pressure on inflation, which is where we

think we are at. given that backdrop, we don't think it will be using policy anytime soon. we think inflation numbers have bottomed out, but they are showing signs of pushing back higher. core inflation has stalled out as has services, which is in the 5% area. these things are going to cause inflation to come back and the federal reserve will stay tighter and the market will experience a pullback in the coming months.>> i see in my notes that we continue to forecast a recession. you're fighting the good fight. but you have not -- i wonder why. if there's going to be a recession, why would you not then believe that the fed would be more inclined to cut interest rates to make sure that the economy does not slip deeply? >> i am more inclined. but i

imagine the stock market would falter. that's the sequencing. you will see the fed eventually cover this when they see the labor market we can. that tends to be a trending type of index. when the fed cuts rates, it does not arrest the stock market decline. that typically has a period of negative returns, which i think is more likely than not. last year we were fighting the good fight of inflation coming down and no one believed us. this year i feel as lonely as i did last year. i think a recession is likely, given that i don't believe it will be policy until you see the labor market we can.>> the boys crying in the wilderness is often correct. mike, we are looking for data later this week. the fourth quarter gdp numbers and personal consumption price

index. how much could they move the markets?>> i think pretty significantly. a premise for this market remaining on firm footing is that this inflation story has to remain believed implausible and has to shop in the pc numbers to some degree. i think there's a patient's we can have, and the fed is not going to commit to rate cuts seem. i don't think it has to commit to rate cuts incompetents acknowledged that there is room for making policy less restrictive, even if the economy things in their. and that is where the market is right now. the tracking numbers for the fourth quarter look pretty good. we might not be quite as strong as 2% plus, but muddle through economic growth and inflation coming down is a decent backdrop and has to be proven out. >> if the door outlook that you predicted holds true, where do you see opportunity right now for investors? >> i still seek opportunity on fixed income. i think it's

compensation for any near-term risk when inflation rises. the fed knows how to quell inflation. they've been fairly aggressive but did not on all the way yet. they will eventually get it under control and people buying bonds with yields in the 4 1/2 to 5% area, i think it will be eventually rewarded for their patience. >> are the equity categories that have not been participants in the rise so far that you like?>> you mentioned one of them in the opening. you mentioned the russell 2000. i think some parts of the market , the reality we may have a mild recession, that's the small-cap area just 13 to 25% off the highs and trades that 14 times the 12 month earnings that are expected to grow. you contrast that with the s&p 500 trading 21 times for 12 month earnings that will go 5 to 6%. that's the area for opportunity for investors who think past

the three, six, nine and 12 month basis.>> a lonely guy but a nice guy. we like him. shares of apple are rising at 4% in a week and close to getting above $3 trillion. the company is facing challenges on several different fronts in several different countries. we have a look at what apple is up against. will kind of a headwind there is for them. >> a ton of regulatory and legal pylons. just in the last week and a half or so. and some restrictions being implemented but more telling than that is how apple responds and waters it down. let me give you some examples in the last few days. the supreme court last week the client to hear the epic gains lawsuit. they won all but one count and it's now legally required to let them offer discounts by

sending it to users to separate website in order to pay. that would normally cost of 30% fee that goes to apple, but they found a way around it and it's still going to charge 27% of people who use those external websites for payments. a concession from apple. offering in the eu to let third parties have access to the wallet. things like paypal can start having access to that. another concession. selling the apple watch without the blood oxygen sensor to deal with the import ban after a patent lawsuit. we are still waiting to see about two big things. how they respond to the eu digital market, which goes into effect later this spring and goes directly after their lucrative app store and other core services. in the meantime other regulations coming up.

there's the doj anticipating case against apple that will be a huge antitrust case, but we are getting some hints about how apple will respond.>> can we put up a year to date chart? there has been a ot of trash on apple.>> i'm talking aside of all the downgrades. but the stock is pressing in on 200. is that year today? not wounded fatally it all. >> two weeks ago it was all doom and gloom because of these fears around a lackluster iphone cycle. there's tons of optimism regardless. >> what is clear, and not just from apple, but from other big tech is that the european union is trying to tackle some of these privacy issues around technology. and the doj and the big focus on antitrust issues, if it has

an impact, and even if apple has figured out a way to dodge and weave a bit, but they are still headwinds. >> that's exactly true. and it will be more fully realized in the eu in early march because apple is going to be forced, for example, to allow other apps and allow these alternative payments. and so, various other things. and it all chips away bit by bit into the profitability and the high margins that all the services have. >> have they been able to go back and start selling again those watches that had that had that blood oxygen -- have they been able to continue selling them?>> they are selling it but without the feature enabled. in order to comply with the import ban, they got permission saying you can sell it, but you have to switch off that sensor and they will do that until

they can figure out a way around it are the cases solved. in the meantime, there are other things they want to do with that blood oxygen sensor in future versions that they cannot do until they figure out this issue. the future -- they are bullish on health. they been talking about it forever. and a marquee feature on the watch being hit in a regulatory legal way is a big -- >> can they ultimately go to this company and license it? >> they could. and that's what they want. they would love to collect a few bucks per apple watch sold. apple went to that dance with qualcomm. they don't want to do that if they can avoid it. for now they will fight everywhere they can.>> it is telling. it tells how they're willing to go hard and fight country by country, and i think that something people need to watch

as these new headwinds start to come, especially the doj case and the eu regulations. coming up, the analyst behind this call joins us next. and big tech dominating the d.c. funding space with names like google and amazon spending $25 google and amazon spending $25 billion on venture funding whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

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from jeffries. neither of these parties has ever run a company before. it's not totally clear why they are interested in macy's or if they really want to buy it or trying to bid up the price to attract another suitor. there seems to be some interest like other activists and investors in recent years. in the real estate to try to en bloc value, but it's really hard to actually do that as previous activists realized and walked away. macy's has done but it can do to unlock the value themselves when and where possible. and the source to say well, it will always take offers seriously and evaluate them and do their fiduciary duty, but in the end, they don't believe that this offer is a real offer nor is it in the best interest of its shareholders.

i reached out to get some viewpoints and we know that the specialization for these companies is debt and real estate, specifically high-yield debt. and that it's a fund with specialization in real estate. i will bring you more when we have it. you can see the shares are on the move. meanwhile, shares of home depot and lowe's is trading lower. evaluations might not reflect the real challenge facing home improvement retail. as there will be better entry points ahead, here's the analyst behind that call. hi, brian. let's talk about them. as a customer, they are rands that i know very well. why are they so challenged right now? what about the current economic environment is providing such challenge? >> it's always smart to start

any conversation and talk about the underlying quality of these companies. they are very well run companies and over the long- term very well positioned in what i view as a healthy sector. my concern is that we are still in the softer demand. there are a lot of factors that contribute to this. one of the biggest is a pull forward in demand from the pandemic. we still have high the rates all that is contributing to what i think is a weaker demand and weaker sales. i look at the stocks. they have traded multiples that are pushing toward recent peaks. >> you also lower to price target. so home depot, your previous target was 360.

now is at 345. and lowe's you lowered it from 275 to $230. if those price targets hold in the share price gets to that level, are those great entry points for investors? >> i think they are getting their. and that's -- as part of the work that we published this morning introduced downside support levels. that is where i think the stocks get attractive. meaning that basically it means that they are -- the price would be a starting point. >> let's talk a little bit about what you see for earnings, and you lowered those forecasts as well. not by time but by a meaningful amount. what would have to happen for earnings to start going the

other way, and i guess behind that question is the idea that if these are not attractive prices to buy or own right now, might the companies look better 3 to 5 years from now? are they long-term winners after they get past this decline in price and decline in earnings?>> let me answer the second part first. absolutely. these are stocks for longer- term investors. it's not a perfectly defined term, 3 to 5 years, absolutely. these are very well run businesses in the home- improvement sector in the u.s. is very healthy. long-term they are attractive. in the near term we are in this malaise. like i said before, higher rates and other factors. my concern here is just because the calendar shifted to 2024,

when i can get this immediate switch to stronger trends in home-improvement. it will take a while. it might be later into 2024 or entity 25. if i read sentiment correct, that's at odds with what the market is thinking right now. >> a terrific analysis. thank you so much. solar shares are higher after sweeping layoffs, but the stock is down more than 70% of the past year. we will be right back.

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as stocks are rising to new level highs, bond deals are pulling back. let's get a full accounting. >> we started out this morning with our 21st consecutive negative month over month change in leading economic indicators. and, if you want to know the worst period, have to go back through a 24 month period from 2007 through 2009.

it was the last time we had this many negative months in a row. and tyler is correct. treasury is reversing what has been, for the most part, a higher yield 2024. but short maturity, to your note is bucking the trend. it's the only maturity that has not traded under friday's low yield. as you look, you can see what i'm talking about. it's the only maturity going in and out unchanged. you see this one month chart we are covering your one month high-yield close. why one mention this? it was still longer dated treasuries that led to the rate increases over the last several weeks, but short maturity is taking the lead because the notion of how aggressive the fed will ease is under review and that is reflected in short maturities, and is reflected today because of the end of the week we have some of the most important metrics regarding

inflation with personal income and spending trove of data. and finally, an historic day maybe coming. harken back to 1989 when the japanese stock market made an all-time high and all-time high close. just a whisker shy of 39,000. here we are right now at about 36,500. the best levels basically since 1990. pay very close attention to this because many believe it will be a very important resistance level and give us clues about the japanese stock market, currency, and economy for the rest of 2024. >> thank you. shares of solar edge higher after the company announced it would cut 60% of their workforce. is is about efficiency? but they are dealing with a demand slow down. they clearly need to cut their costs, so what they said is they will cut 16% of the workforce and slow down their manufacturing and in some

cases, it all together and then the ceo said it was necessary in order to align the cost structure with the rapidly changing market dynamics. and by that he means that the market has not turned around. we kept hearing it's going to bottom and bounce back. that keeps getting pushed out. son power announced their restructuring. >> why is there slowdown in demand? i was just after some state governments that have renewed rebates and tax incentives for people who are buying solar? and i don't know what the infrastructure plan was like, but it seems -- >> for consumers it comes back to higher rates because you very rarely pay for the systems out right. and when rates go up, makes her costco up. there's a lot of focus on the price of your power.

what we saw, when there's less chatter about that unless focus on that, consumers are not watching that, they have less of an incentive. it's about the spread between how much they pay for month and when it's not favorable, places in texas and florida, they are not in solar at the same rate.>> let's get a news update. the u.s. announced another round of sanctions today against hamas and an iraqui airline. it targeted fly baghdad and the ceo for providing assistance to iran's military link and proxy groups in iraq, syria, lebanon. the airline denounced the decision and called on the u.s. to provide material evidence for the claim. u.s. sanctioned a network of hamas affiliated financial exchanges in gaza.

lawmakers on the commerce committee are calling on the fda to give a briefing on heavy metal contaminated applesauce pouches that ended up on u.s. store shelves. the high levels of chromium and lead were traced to cinnamon. and dexter scott king has died. the youngest son of martin luther king jr. and greta scott king was battling prostate cancer, according to the king center of atlanta. he served as the chairman there. according to his wife, he died peacefully in his sleep. he was 62 years old. if you are a man, please go get a prostate checkup. the earlier, the better. >> we have a lot of those reminders in the news. coming up next, climate startups are raising big money.

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kate rooney is here with who they are and what they're spending. >> the alien dollars in venture money last year making up a total of 8% of all vc funding. that was up from 1% a year earlier. the launch of chat gpt kicked off this spending mania. think about this and the big

companies are spending anything on big language models. we have inflection and some are funded by multiple mang names. this might be a match made in heaven. some of the biggest customers, they spend big on cloud computing and hardware. whenever a new data or a project launches, the cash register rings at the hyper scaler. the structure of these deals is part equity and often includes credits and it makes it hard for traditional venture capitalists to compete with big tech since those dollars in credits make their way backg tech companies but some are questioning energy of this round-trip funding. this uses your revenue. he expects a massive mess in

the end.>> take microsoft as an example. they will finance the tech startup and then the startup spends money and microsoft, sosa round-trip.>> that is what some are questioning. it's a great thing on the startup site because some of the biggest cost is cloud computing. they say will have this massive amount of funding and get credits to spend microsoft and microsoft says we will invest in this, but it's coming back to us in the end and it's this recycled capital. and some wonder how it adds up, but there are some historical analogies. google has done this with advertising dollars for years, which mark cuban pointed out. but it's interesting because a company that i cover is going into offering credit to its tenants and their paying back the rents.

but you are growing the business and assuming that at some point you will have more money coming in the door. that circular capital is interesting. >> it's a great point and sometimes you get a discount if you see whole foods going into a mall, they will discount the rent for certain reasons. cc these interesting capital structures, but overall venture capital is pulled back massively, except for this one bright >>, which is generative ai and the tech companies are propping up valuations. it's making it harder for venture investors in silicon valley to keep up. and they say we can give you money, but we can't keep up with the pocketbooks of these big tech mang names. >> thank you for that. 50 companies that we have profiled. let's take a >> and talk capital with a

special guest. our senior climate correspondent joins us to go deep and dirty into clean start. >> with tracked $4.6 billion in venture capital into these companies. cleantech, sustainable anything and everything. last year was rough. the dollar funding was down 20% from 2022. but one vc, is announcing today that it just closed its third climate fund with $335 million. this is the first big climate tech fund close. we have the cofounder and managing partner with us. you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> when we spoke last week, you referred to 2023 as brutal for raising money for vc.

tell us why was brutal and what you think 2024 will be better or worse. >> 2023 was a tough year all around and climate tech suffered. looking at 2024, there's an enormous amount of climate venture capital on the sidelines , and it will start moving this year. particularly in the latter half of the year. i would say the first six-month of 2024 is an incredible opportunity to invest in emerging climate tech companies.>> i know you don't like to have a favorite child, but you said there are business models that you think are better than others. explain why and maybe tell us one favorite child within the sector.>> maybe if you think about -- one of our favorite teams is the electrification of everything. within that sector we like

mobility right now. and we think in 2024 are nearing an inflection point and we saw this in norway with eb sales where they went from 1% to 80% in the short time frame. so we are actively looking to place capital and that mobility and in the mobility space we just invested in the company called recurrent, which is using ai to provide an accurate battery health report for used ev buyers. also in that space we invested in harbinger. and on the home electrification front we made an investment in palmetto, which is a marketplace where americans can go to find and buy solar and span is another

interesting space. these are sectors that i was excited about for 2024. >> i would also like to ask who are the investors putting money into your fund, and what makes them different from other the from the other climate funds? >> would been around for over a decade now, and that has allowed us to get to the point where we can start attracting a lot of these institutional capital. and we finally reached that point. these are some of the top investors in the world but they have serious decarbonization goals. we are allowing them to have their financial goals but also take the decarbonization that our portfolio is delivering and allow them to roll it out to meet those goals internally.>> thank you so much for joining us.

>> thank you for bringing us that interview. we have a new report on the investigation into the trading scandal that led to the resignation of two officials. what you learned? >> reporter: we just received the long-awaited report that finds robert kaplan and they did not [ indiscernible ] both officials created the appearance of a conflict of interest with the traits with let them to resign in late 2021. the fed inspector general said that kaplan's trading activity did not violate regulation or policy. but the report highlights a lack of information surrounding his tracing he did not publicly disclose specific dates and other details. as a result has an appearance of acting on confidential

information and an appearance of a conflict of interest. a spokesperson referred to two previous statements saying he adhere to all ethical standards and policies. on rosen grant, we've reached out for him for comment as well. still ahead, a commodity commotion shows a traitor plunged as the company suspends its cfo. we will bring you the story when power lunch returns. powering sustainable growth in a changing world. powering financial solutions that transform industries.

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that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com welcome back. archer daniels midland facing an accounting pro. >> they are having there were stan record. the food processor and supply company is the subject of a pro- . specifically related to their

nutritional business. they place the chief financial officer on administrative leave and lowered their profit forecast as well. that combination has driven a large number analyst down in price target revisions. barclays has doubled downgraded that stock. and weakness in the soybean market so today's move has them hitting the lowest level since early 2001. >> thank you for that. still ahead, shares of a bio stick company tumble following dismal lung cancer tryouts. we have more in today's three >> lunch.

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three-stock lunch where we look at the big movers of the day. and with our trades is short ball, sanders morris and harris. a first, a firm holding, the stock is up a lot today, about

4%, after being down more than 10% in the past month. george, welcome. what is your trade on a firm? >> a firm can best be described as almost a cold stop not quite. it has some of the [inaudible] speculators who like it, but i think it's a cell. first, the buy now pay later stocks are apt to being hurt the next quarter and a half, either because the economy turns soft and consumers care back, or rates stay here for a year, in which case the cost of borrowing money for a firm, and the buy now pay later companies, he's going to hurt their profit margins substantially. so if you want to gamble, maybe gamble on a firm, but affirmatively i would rather sell this stop then be a pure

speculator. the fundamentals don't justify its price today, or really what it's done today either. it's better to be avoided. >> george, up next we have gilead sciences. down more than 10% today after a lung cancer study showed disappointing results. what do you think of gilead? >> i want to say this very carefully, gilead is a strong buy, but buy it later. the disappointing results are one phenomenon. gilead has a large pipeline of seven or eight major drugs that will have phase two and phase three studies coming with results in the second half of the year, and the first half of next year. look at the history of pharma companies, when you get ones like gilead that have a portfolio of drugs under study, and they get disappointing results, they gap down, go into

investment purgatory for 3 to 6 months, and then they do well as people focus on their product pipeline. so i think gilead is by, but by it in three months. don't buy it now, unless you want to wait through the purgatory period. >> what would be the signal to buy, george? >> i think the signal is the passage of time. wait until late in the first quarter, early in the second quarter, and at that time people will have forgotten about the disappointing results of the drug, and we'll be looking forward. >> got it. >> it's simply a calendar, not bell ringing or any other fundamental. >> got it. let's move to a sticky stop. 3m. reported fourth quarter results tomorrow. shares our flight today. your trade on 3 am, george?

>> my trade would be to buy it before the earnings, buy it on the earnings, buy it after the earnings. there is a great deal of latent potential in 3m. its management is disparaged. when management is disparaged, they fight like rats with their back to the wall. 3m has a big moat of patents, with a spinoff of its health care business it will have three segments. transportation, safety and consumer. those are big, strong sectors where i think the management is going to do everything it possibly can to beat expectations to have free cash clothes that are higher than analysts are estimating. and right now it is selling at a very low multiple of free cash flow. about three eighths of what it was selling for five years ago. so a sneaky fastball.

3m it's not only a big companies, but one that has big upside from the current 108 dollar price. big potential to it i think. >> we began with by now, pay later. we will end with by now, by later. george paul, thank you my friend. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> closing time is coming up next. a car is a car... is a spa. an office. hi! hello! a cinema. so automated. yes, the definition of a car changes... but one thing stays the same. it's a mercedes-benz.

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to take on the next anything. we only have two minutes left in the program. and we have several more stories we want to tell you about. new data shows that cardinal theft has spiked more than 57% in 2023 versus the year prior. nearly $130 million worth of goods stolen in 2023. cargo theft reporting is not mandatory so the amount is much likely higher than this. this would be major deaths probably done by fog nice crime. >> so as the insurance reporter

here, i am frequently asked why are our premiums so high? >> why? i want to know. >> when it comes to car insurance, one reason is that people keep crashing into each other. why? they are using their phones behind the wheel. this should be a big -- the insurance information institute released today a report that intruders collect -- spend more on claims than they collect -- and the number one cause behind distracted driving is the cell phone. it should not take a steady for us to know that, because even people who generally drive well -- >> maybe insurers could improve their margins if they were not advertise quite as much. get away from the ads. you can't. a busy weekend of football. the lions are one win away from their first super bowl. a few teams have never been there. the 49ers overcame a seven point fourth quarter deficit. they have lost the previous 30 such games under coach kyle

shanahan, but the indelible image to many jason kelce shirtless in buffalo. >> they don't like that. no way. and that bills game sent kelley into labor. we have a report she delivered a healthy baby girl this morning. thank you for watching power lunch. >> i think the name should be taylor or travis. closing bell right now. >> welcome to closing bell. i am scott walker here at the new york stock exchange. the make and break our begins with a rally in stocks. let's get right to your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation to see exactly where we stand right now. that is where it is. we are in the green across the board. dow trying to close above 38,000 for the first time ever. goldman sachs, united health, and caterpillar lead the way there. take a look at those stocks. nice in the green today. we will watch the indexes there over this final and most important stretch. apple, a big story today. it is back towards $200 a share. a few positive mentions today on the street as well. i don't know, three downgrades