themselves. >> all right, julia, you'll be joining us here on "overtime" to break it all down. we get so many more earnings, as well, in addition tomorrow. plus some macro data. >> texas instruments and intuitive surgical, watching that one. bounced a lot off the summer lows. >> that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. another round of records. the s&p and dow hits all-time highs for the second day in a row. some big consumer names notching their own records, too. so, what happened to the slowdown? we'll debate what we should make of this. plus, the sun rising on japan. the etf that tracks the country's top market is up more than 9% already this year. far outpacing the s&p's performance. can the run keep going? we'll dive into the charts to find out. later, united takes flight. net flix nears two-year highs,

and why there's more to macy's than meets the eye. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- steve grasso, karen finerman, bonawyn eison, and guy adami. the dow closing above 38,000 for the first day ever. it took 25 trading days iffer the plus chip index to jump 1,000 points. the s&p closing in on record territory for the second session in a row. and the nasdaq hitting its highest in over two years. the bullishness extending to popular consumer stocks, too. uber, chipotle, costco, marriott, and visa. the names standing out over the last year with massive gains. what kind of message is this run in consumer names sending us about slowdown worries? and i'll go to the worrier in chief on this desk, guy adami. >> that's me. >> this segment of the market is telling us something. >> telling them, people feel good about things, obviously they've seen headline inflation come down, they've seen interest rates come down. there hasn't been really a

market event for the last five or six months, meaningful, at least. people feel good about things. unemployment rate is where it is. so, there's a reason to feel good. the flip side of that coin, and peter will probably speak to this, leading economic indicators out today, now down 21 months in a row. now, granted, it wasn't as bad as street was expecting, but it was still down, 22 out of the last 24 months. so, something's got to come home to roost at some point. again, i'm still of the camp, you put all this together, it means unemployment's probably going to start racheting higher in a meaningful way, but right now, people feel good about everything. >> shouldn't these stocks factor this one? >> should. >> ah, sure. i just don't think the market is necessarily taking it into account that the fed may not be as accommodative as they'd like to think. we have seen that march number move from, i guess, whatever it was, 81%, 85% to just now sub 50, but there's still several calls for us to be well over 100

basis points in terms of cuts. and i just think that, you know, that pull forward persists. and then you look at the stock market performance over the last four months or so, since the bottoming out of october, you really can't afford not to be involved. and then you look at the top heaviness of that, some of the laggards, you look at consumer spending, you look at consumer sentiment, the consumer has remained strong. and i definitely would have maded the better part of that consumer deceiscretionary compl. you expect to see it in technology, the broadening out in maybe some of the other staple areas. you did not expect to see it in consumer discretionary and you likely didn't expect it in the home building complex, either. and those two have been off to the races. >> i get intellectually why one might doubt the market gains, why one might doulgtbt the streh of the market, but yet, this is the market that we have, steve. right?

so, what do you do? how can you reconcile that? >> so if, you think -- it doesn't have to be recession or no recession. recessions happen, they're normal, natural, healthy. whamen what happened if we had a recession in '22? what happened if we had rolling recessions in different sectors? we could have already got past that. this could be the soft landing. and to guy's point, if unemployment starts racheting up, isn't that the long and variable lag that the fed is most likely afraid of and that's why it doesn't appear as though he should be cutting, but he's going to cut? so, it shouldn't feel right. it does, because he's late. so, if we start to see all of that happen, now, to bonawyn's point, i think you have to front-load these cuts, because you're in an election year cycle. you have to stay away from looking political. he wants to stay away from the back half of this year, because he doesn't want people to think

he's screwing around with the marketplace. >> huh. >> you invest through it, buy the market. >> waller said, we're a stone's throw away from our inflation target, but one of the worst things that can happen, we start cutting when inflation ticks higher. so, there seems to be a recognition that there is some concern that they might start too early, they might start aggressively and that inflation is not, in fact, fully tamed? >> i think it's not fully tamed, it's headed the right direction, but i don't know why they need to cut now, right? it seems to me sort of -- why give it away for free? the economy is sort of doing fine, and, you know, the -- the error of cutting too soon is far greater than the benefit of cutting a little bit early. or when people expect. i don't know why they would need to cut in march. i think -- i hear you about your point of not wanting to be political, i think you cannot cut and still talk somewhere in the dovishness kind of area, and so, keep the market excited

about that. i mean, right now we're in this goldilocks where if inflation ticks up, that's great, because now rates will come down. so -- i do think that's what we'll see. why the market goes up every day? i don't really know. it doesn't make sense to me that things are vastly different. valuations are high. they could get higher for sure. i do think, though, that this leading indicator thing, i real ide realize it was negative. you mentioned the expectations. the expectations were for something worse. >> yeah, the expectations were for negative .3, came in negative .1. it is all about expectation. it's almost -- it is two years, so, it's 22 out of 24 months, 21 months in a row, and for whatever reason, again, money flows, whatever it is, exuberance of markets not pricing any of that in, one has to wonder with the yield curve that's seemingly steepening now,

it's the inversion that is sort of the warning sign. it's the steepening that could give people pause. that's been the case historically. it's happening now. the market doesn't seem to care right now. >> what would you be inclined to do right now? would you be inclined to buy protection on this market at this point? race for some sort of downturn in certain sectors? what? >> you probably start dollar cost averaging. i think he said buy the market. i think you continue to invest in the market. i think protection is extremely cheap, so, makes a lot of sense -- >> begrudgingly, it sounds like you put money into the market. >> that's exactly the word i used in q-4. begrudgingly. yes. you want to be right or do you want to make money? we can do the mental gymnastics as to why we think our thesis is correct, but you have to trade the market that you're given. with that said, not buying protection to me is just a bit irresponsible, at these levels, if you are not going to mitigate risk by some type of dollar cost

averaging. >> our next guest suggests weaker economic data could get in the market's way. peter bookbar is with us. great to have you. bonawyn just said he's begrudgingly putting money into the market, that was his motto in q-4, as well. are you -- i mean, i understand that you think the economic data is going to turn and work against the markets, et cetera, but at this point in time, do you have knowledge that the market seems a little bit stronger than what you may have anticipated going into this year? >> ah, yeah. well, certainly, the last couple of days and how we ended last year, but i understand the market's desire to rally on expectations of fed rate cuts. i mean, that's been the playbook for decades now. so, i get why we rally. i think earnings over the next couple weeks are just in time, in the sense of, testing the thesis that everything is fine. and there are so many mixed

signals within the global economy that it just can make your head spin. when you look at holiday sales, for example, you have the mastercard spending pulse, you have the national retail federation saying that holiday sales were about 3.5%. well, that's the rate of inflation. so, on a real basis, holiday sales were zero. u.s. manufacturing, global manufacturing, for that matter, are in a recession. you have the pace of existing home sales near 30-year lows, but home building doing okay. you have high-end spending on travel and leisure, hospitality, restaurants, doing fine, but spending on stuff not doing well. and if you look at the beige book last week, of the 12 districts, eight basically saw no growth. you had three that saw modest growth, one that saw a modest decline. that doesn't sound like a great economy. so, it just -- and then you look at overseas, europe is

essentially at best flatlining. china, we know, is further decelerating. so, it's really a tough environment to both figure out and maneuver through, and i think the stock market is really trading off, the fed is going to not be in our face anymore, and maybe even in qt-2, to throw that in there, and just buy stocks because of that, rather than an analysis on the full macro. >> so, peter, you would admit that the market is taking its lead from the fed. if the fed cuts, the market is going to rally, that's been the standard. what can qt give us a clue on right now, should we watch for that to stop first and then the cut is coming? because you can't have both at the same time, i wouldn't think. >> well, i think that's an i t eternal debate within the fed. can they continue with qt? because jay powell wants to get the balance sheet to a level he's comfortable with, because he can't even define that,

actually. but at the same time, tweak monetary policy to reduce the odds of a recession, but not cut too much that you get higher inflation again. and this is a very difficult situation that powell is in. i think his main priority right now is not to stoke a flareup in inflation. he thinks he's got a handle on it with the downside of the cyclical spike, but keeping inflation low is his next battle, and i think it's really going to be interesting to see how the fed plays the balance sheet with what they do with interest rates, but even -- the interest rate story is a tradeoff. if they only cut a couple of times, call that maybe just a tweak and the fed funds rate is still going to remain high. if they cut six times, seven times, that's because the unemployment rate is going to 4.5% to 5%, and we're in a recession. so, it's -- this is not an easy situation to really analyze, and from the fed's perspective, to actually maneuver through. >> peter, it's karen, thanks for

being on. so, for awhile, we talked about the long and variable lag. are we enough -- has enough time passed through when the fed started hiking aggressively, that we've seen what the lag is or do you think that there's more to come on that? >> i think this is going to take a few more years. this year, we have about $750 billion of corporate debt that needs to be refinanced. now, granted, some of that took place in 2023, but that rises to over a trillion in 2025. about half a trillion dollars of commercial real estate that needs to be refinanced. i spoke to some real estate people that are just crossing their fingers that the ten-year yield goes down to 3%. because if rates stale around these levels, with their debt coming due, they're in trouble. so, i still think that this has many years to sort of work its way through the refinancing cycle, and that is going to be a continuous drag on economic activity. now, that said, when you look at

those companies that borrow silver plus, well, if the fed is going to cut, maybe they've seen the worst of it. a lot of small, medium-sized businesses do borrow floating rate, so, ironically, it could be the bigger companies that are going to see the jumps in interest rates. and one of the main contributors to profit margin expansion over the past couple of decades was lower interest expense. >> peter, what do you make of what's going on in china? the fxi closed around 21, levels we haven't seen in 16 or so years. is that any reason for concern whatsoever? >> well, it's certainly a concern because it's the second-biggest economy, but if you showed me that chart and i didn't know what it was called, i would say that this is final capitulation. everyone's just throwing up and this is the bottom. and i actually think that is the case with the index. and i've been dead wrong in the first three weeks of the year, calling for it to outperform the s&p 500 this year, but i still

think this is sort of the final leg of the bear market, sthe a-share is much more complicated and tied to chinese policy, where a lot of companies within hong kong that have global operations and particularly operations throughout the region of asia. >> peter, great to see you. thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> one of the strangest markets he's seen. ben eamons wrote a note this morning and he said, you know, the markets are trading on this notion of an exquisite soft landing, which -- the phrase stuck out at me because it felt really right, that the markets were thinking that it was going to be just right, for the first time, maybe, in history, the fed has actually succeeded in doing exactly what it set out to do. which seems unlikely. >> it seems -- but i thought it was unlikely for a long time, however, today, it still seems unlikely, giving everything that you see below the surface.

the only -- in my opinion, the only thing that's giving you encouragement, or backing up the thesis, is the stock market. because everything below the surface says something else is going on. >> right. you are always long -- >> always long, right. >> how does that composition of long change in this sort of market environment? >> so, just increasingly nervous, you know, stressful, anxiety, that kind of thing, but -- and then, as you talked about volatility index being relatively low, so, look for protection there. i always have some kind of protection on, and i -- just nervous, but i'm not going to trade around things, particularly if they have big gains. it's a really, really inefficient structure, when to go in, get in, toll make back what i pay on realized gains, i know i'm not capable of that. >> would you buy some of the consumer stocks that we named at the top of the show that are hitting new highs? >> yeah, i mean, marriott looks like it was breaking out on the chart. when they break out, you get

that tailwind. you could have a little bit of a reversion, but costco has an over 90% renewal rate on its membership. that's been a steady eddie, as well. markets are plucfluctuate. people don't have issues that karen are talking so you can have timing. >> we have an earnings alert. united airlines is forecasting a loss in the current quarter due to the boeing 737 max-9 grounding. phil wlebeau has the details. >> that loss expectation for the first quarter, not entirely because of the max-9, though it certainly is contributing to what the company is expecting. let's quickly you go through the q-4 numbers. part of the reason why the stock is moving higher. it was a clean holiday period for the airlines. strong demand, as a result, you have united earn, $2 a share in the fourth quarter, the street

expectation was $1.69. revenue coming in better than expected at $13.63 billion. total revenue for available seat mile was down 4.2%, compared to the same quarter in 2022. keep in mind, capacity was up 14%. now, to the q-1 guidance. this is what people are going to be talking about over the next couple of days. earnings per share, a loss between 35 and 85 cents a share. the street was expecting a loss, or the guidance going into the earnings today, was 21 cents a share for the first quarter. total revenue per seat mile, flat in the first quarter. cost per available seat mile, up mid-single digits versus the first quarter of 2023. we talk about the impact of the max-9 grounding. the company says that if this grounding extends to the end of the month, it is a 3% cost per available seat mile headwind for the first quarter. so, that's part of the reason why the company is now expecting a loss of, what, 35 cents to 85

cents a share. keep in mind that boeing -- united as 79 boeing 737 max-9 planes. they have been grounded for two weeks. no indication when that grounding is going to be lifted. we'll be talking about scot kir bi, ceo of united airlines, tomorrow morning. we'll be talking about that and the question that all are facing right now. do they feel confident that the maxes,es they are scheduled to receive, including the max-10 which is not yet certified, are they coming as planned? united as a schedule for 77 maxes this year, and 277 next year and beyond. does that get pushed out? and if you are scott kirby and united, what does that do for your planning? lots to discuss with him, we'll be talking with him tomorrow morning on "squawk box." melissa, back to you? >> just to be clear, the wider than expected q-1 forecast including the potential impact

from further grounding? >> if the grounding goes to the end of the month, it's a 3% headwind. they haven't gone beyond that. >> and any word from united at all so far, and i understand the earnings call is going to happen, et cetera, there may be more that coming out there, but there was a report saying that scott kirby was expressing frustration over how the faa handled the grounding, how boeing has handled it, frustration with the management at boeing, et cetera -- anything on the record -- >> is he frustrated? >> uh-huh? >> on the record, we haven't heard from him yet. we'll hear tomorrow morning. do i expect to hear him, a frustrated scott dkirby? you bet. look at it from his perspective. you have 79 max-9s that have been grounded, and they may be grounded for a week or two, who knows how long, but he's got 354 max planes including 150 max-10s on the order book. he is looking over the next couple of years, saying, this is

how i want to build our airline. well, how much confidence do you have that you'll be able to receive those maxes, including the max-10, which is not yet certified? and the reason i bring this up, melissa, many people believe that the max-10 certification, which is, right now, most people say fourth quarter event, is it going to happen in the fourth quarter? there's increasingly chatter of, hey, the faa might push it out a little further. we don't know for sure. but that's -- that's at the heart of the frustration that scott kirby is likely expressing right now. >> all right, phil, thank you. phil lebeau. and i'm sure the frustration that boeing shareholders have, as well, how many times can dave calhoun billion let off the hook for things like this? guy? >> well, fourth or fifth time, and i think there's -- listen, at some point, right, you are going to have to answer a lot of questions. boeing traded down, filled a gap on the downside very quietly, probably rallied 7% in a couple days. with that said, united, the first quarter guide, we'll write

it off. the full-year guide, they narrowed it from nine bucks to 11 bucks. start doing the multiple game, you put a 4 1/2, 5 m, it's a dea stock. >> i agree with you in terms of valuation, right, that's pretty compelling, but some of the economics were concerning. i see top and bottom line numbers which beat. when you're talking about, you know, the cost associated with average seat mile, revenue per average seat mile as well as now the higher cost of employment staff, i think that's just a bit of a tough makeup for me. coming up, a bio tech bust. the disappointing drug results that sent gilead sinking, that's next. plus, macy's getting a boost after rejecting a takeover bid to go private. why the company says the deal fell short and why one trader scooped up more stock this morning. don't go anywhere. more "fast money" in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee right here on cnbc

. bill! uh-huh... - hip-hop! - limping! mmhmm! medical bills! uh-huh! - pancakes! - cash! who pays you cash when you have medical bills? grrr! no idea. [tapping] gap! the gap left by health insurance? who pays cash to help close that gap? aflac! oh, aflac! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com pictionary?! welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so, my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, -hey, john reese, jr. -how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister's told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. ♪ ♪

so you can ♪ ♪e from pain. ♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money." we've got a buzz kill on gilead.

shares plunging 10%, its worst day in over nine years, after the company said its cancer drug failed to meet expectations in a late-stage trial. gilead saying the drug, which is approved for certain breast cancer and bladder cancers, did not improve survival rates in patients with metastatic nonsmall cell lung cancer. it is one of their best-selling treatments. the company also said that it still feels confident in the prospect for this drug. this was a test -- to test this alongside another drug. that's what failed. >> so, it's sell first, ask questions later. they are going to present again. they were sort of encouraged by some of the data, but obviously the trading community was not. and the problem, of course, it's had a huge run into this event. i get it, but then you look at the analyst, piper afstill reiterates their $100 price target. there's a lot of things to like here. traded 20 million shares. maybe it's another day or two or selling, but i think you buy the weakness on the back of this. >> this is why so many people

play, including myself, you pick the bio tech stock that you want to play, but then you buy the ibb, the large cap bio tech, or you buy the xbi, because if you look at the ibb, it wasn't down today. you look at the xbi, it wasn't down today. it was actually up today. so, it's difficult to pick those binary ones. if you have the stomach to ride the roller coaster, you can pick gilead. >> that's been your philosophy, as well. >> i don't have the stomach, for sure. i'm in your camp. i can't do it. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. takeover turndown. macy's passing on a nearly $6 billion bid to go private. why the deal needs to be a lot sweeter if they want to see a miracle on 34th street. the details next. plus, the land of the rising sun giving rise to your

portfolio. japan stocks hitting a 34-year high, but can the good times last? the chart master is digging into the overseas technicals ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." shares of macy's topping the tape today after the retailer rejected a bid to take it private. $5.8 billion was offered to the econo company, but macy's said it does not off er anything for the shareholders. karen, why did you buy more? >> i found this appealing, in that the stock opened premarket was trading poorly. i thought this was actually macy's showing a sign of strength. macy's say, look, you don't have -- we don't really fully get your financing, there was some back and forth, maybe some

miscommunication, 21's not enough. we're done. that -- there was nothing to discuss. so, the ceo did an interview today saying, look, we told them where our financing is going to come from, they should let us sign an nda and look at their books, macy's said, no, we don't have to do anything. they said, we are not for sale at any price. they just said the value wasn't compelling. and i think that the ball is actually in arkhouse and brigade's court right now. they have to show they're going to file a proxy and look to unseat the board, the entire board is up for election, or they've got to show stronger financing or show a higher price or some mixture of those three. and i think at this price, the risk/we ward is pretty compelling. >> does it matter what the plan is for their takeover? does it matter -- >> capital structure does. >> the financing does. that does. >> right.

as far as you are concerned, what happens to it jf wafterwar? >> the buyer wants it to work, for sure, but the capital structure definitely matters here. and obviously it's a real estate play somewhat, so, capital structure is very important. >> macy's is saying, no, we're worth more, there's no way we're going to look at this thing. then they're going to go to shareholders, i imagine, at some point. that will fall on deaf ears. you're playing the game. are they going to increase the bid? is it fog tgoing to be $21 to $? the risk/we regreward sets up w. >> the beauty of this is, the number is 21, that's just valuing them on real estate. the retail business you get them for free. they'll say it's everything, but it's just the real estate they're valuing. my problem, here's my conspiracy theory. why doesn't macy's want to open

up their books? >> why should they? i will buy your house for $15,000. let me take a look. >> okay. >> let me take a look. >> you would think that the books show it's worth more than $15,000 -- >> right. >> but the -- it was stated that they would -- would increase that bid -- >> if they got to look at the books first. macy's is saying -- >> maybe they want to see something else in the books. and maybe macy's doesn't want -- >> i get you. $21 isn't the number that gets them to look at the books. that's it. maybe it's $24. i don't know what the number is. >> i like the idea, if it's trading at $18 and someone throws a $21 bid and the stock should have had a magnet there, because you're only valuing the real estate. everything else should be above that. >> the real estate story doesn't hold water like it used to, one, rates are much higher. two, there's been a real estate story at macy's before, so,

that's not enough. they need to -- and they -- the concern about financing. >> not to mention the commercial aspect. talking about commercial property here, so, like, that's going to be valued on the -- i'm with you. it's a double whammy. they are not valuing the operating company and impairing the real estate, saying that the operating company. why would i bother engaging with you at a low ball price? >> something on the books. something there. >> conspiracy theorist. all right. coming up, a house divided. analyst call sending home depot and lowe's lower. we'll discuss that ahead. and the nikkei index hitting 34-year highs as japanese stocks keep climbing. is there more overseas opportunity to be had? we'll see what the chart master thinks about the levels next. "fast money" is back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

- "best thing i've ever done." that's what freddie told me. - it was the best thing i've ever done, and- - really? - yes, without a doubt! - i don't have any anxiety about money anymore. - great people. different people, that's for sure, and all of them had different reasons for getting a reverse mortgage, but you know what, they all felt the same about two things: they all loved their home,

and they all wanted to stay in that home. and they all wanted to stay in that home. - [announcer] if you're 62 or older and own your home, you could access your equity to improve your lifestyle. a reverse mortgage loan eliminates your monthly mortgage payments and puts tax-free cash in your pocket. call the number on your screen. - why don't you call aag... and find out what a reverse mortgage can mean for you? - [announcer] call right now to receive your free no-obligation info kit. call the number on your screen.

welcome back to "fast money." the s&p dow both closing at records for the second day in a

row. the dow topping 38,000 for the first time ever. the nasdaq hit its highest level in over two years. all three indices on a three-day winning streak. chairs of archer-daniels-midland plummeting 24%. placing its cfo on leave amid an accounting probe. adm announced weak q-4 guidance and getting a down grade from analysts. and japan's benchmark nikkei on a tear. hitting a new 34-year high. the index is up more than 9% year to date, far outpacing the s&p. and carter braxtonworth is digging into the charts to see where the index is going from here. carter, what do you see? >> well, i suppose, it's always about your time frame and knowing who one is in the market. day-to-day, week over week, nikkei's a bit steep and uncharactered. up 10% in the past month. and you can see it here. it's a textbook setup. well defined intermediate tops at a common level and a breakout. but that breakout is quite steep

and now all of a sudden it's very popular, having been unchanged for almost seven, eight months. the breakout is textbook. but i think you fade it if you have the dexterity and on the short and intermediate side. hang seng is down 10%. you have 2,000 basis points of spread in a one-month period between these equally important indices in the far east, and for fun, wlelet's look at some comparative charts this is a ten-year. the lines and the colors are clear. blue is japan, orange is the hang seng. if we look at the next time frame, look at longer term, 30 years. they're even money. so, which is it? now, go 50 years. and, of course, this is the tale. i mean, hang seng is 5x that of the nikkei. but we know that each is under a certain amount of demographic

pressure, of course. and in many ways, they have the exact same birthrate. these are funny mental things, but at one point, it's a bad business plan, if you will. just to end with, you know, there was shaker furniture. beautiful stuff, they dooechbt use nails, the wooden pegs, they didn't believe in procreating. that's a permanently bad business plan. >> carter, you put out a note today on tlt, play for a bounce? >> yeah, play for a bounce. so, we're at this point, we think you've had a fairly extreme move and rates lower from here. >> all right, carter braxton worth, thank you. >> you bet. >> guy, you were snickering during that -- >> i could -- >> you learn something new. >> carter worth should do a more you know on the nbc.

i saw -- you do one, carl. i saw one with brian sullivan. that's not what we're here to talk about. tlt went from 84 to 100ish, it sold off,carter's say, the selloff is enough. it can start to reaccelerate to the upside, which means yields go lower. if yields start to go lower, is that going to be further ammunition for the broader market to go higher? so, we'll see. but carter's call on tlt makes a lot of sense. >> and you were in and out of tlt. >> yeah, covered. i would like -- i think i'll get a chance to put it out again. >> japan? >> i was waiting. >> in your acronym. >> i was waiting. >> does that worry you? >> to take a term from guy's generation, i'm not digging the digging on my digs. i'm not going to argue from week-to-week or day-to-day what the price action is going to be. what i'm going to say is, i think that china is priced where it is relatively speaking, because china is viewed as an

impaired asset in the late, early earnings of trying to get things corrected, japan being in the early innings of an expansion, change in monetary policy, and corporate oversight. i would still prefer the outperformer. >> picking up where he left off this is a bigger -- the story here is that -- there's a mass exodus from china-related, trying to figure out where the most hospitable place to put your money and those are the ones glaning the attraction. all right, the highs and lows in the housing trade. home improvement names getting hit. where you should be in the space next. and names from j&j to ge to netflix all set to report tomorrow. what to expect and how options traders are streaming in, next. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. you know when you have those moments? that time to reflect. to be like wow! what did i do to get here? (tense music)

right. work. you worked hard and it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank performance savings is built to put your money to work with some of the highest rates in the country . going, got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you. businesses go further with 5g solutions. that's why they choose t-mobile for business. pga of america and t-mobile are partnering on 5g-powered analytics to help improve player performance. t-mobile's network helps aaa stay connected nationwide... to get their members back on the road. and las vegas grand prix chose t-mobile to help fuel operations for one of the world's largest racing events.

now is the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business. awkward question. is there going to be anything... leftover? oh, absolutely. [inner monologue] my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. empower what's next. when at last the sun has set, and dusk begins to grow, with all our strokes recorded, we'll reflect, and smile, and know. that though the wind was raging. and stole from us the score. we'll rise at dawn tomorrow. to battle it once more. (crickets chirping) ♪♪ that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place.

i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. welcome back to "fast money." house in need of repair? two analysts getting negative on the sector. analysts see increased risk for this recent rally, particularly in this fed rate cutting cycle,

potentially, they cited 16 cycles since 1966, and in each time, they say the risk/reward narrows after that. >> home depot, they report mid-february. you have some time to hear from them. with that said, it's a direct call on the consumer and demand, and they're basically saying, you know what? they might have gotten ahead of themselves here. valuation is not ridiculous for home depot, but if you see a slowdown, and margins start to contract, you see how quickly they'll sell this stock off. i admire the call, they did it ahead of earnings a month from now. >> i'm long lohome depot. it's hard to get super excited here, but if you believe that existing home sales will eventually make their way onto the market, i think that will be a positive thing for home depot. to guy's point, lowe's, the forward pe of lowe's at -- little under 17 versus 23 and change, to me, it's similar to the target/walmart situation.

i think that chasm is too big. >> i understand the thesis around there being less risk and that risk/reward narrowing, but you can make that same argument for the overall market, so -- you know, i think that there has been some strength here and what you haven't seen in existing home sales, that has been -- that has benefited the home builder complex, so -- i think maybe you want to fade one and hold onto the other, but i don't think i would wholesale be short both of them. >> yeah, i agree. the -- the flip side of it, we talked about existing home sales, new home sales. the new home sales, they were able to buy down, they were able to buy down mortgage rates now. and to karen's point, if you -- if you fight through this and existing home sales start to rebound, this is going to be a tailwind to home depot and lowe's. home depot is the favorite, if i would -- >> did you see that? >> so, i would pick home depot, but let's think about this.

earnings are lagging, right? it's a lagging end kale or the. so, by the time we see through this, yes, you could have a bad earnings print for home depot, but we're already in the cycle that karen's talking about, where existing home sales, where rates are falling, existing home sales have a tailwind, so, you could be late even though you're early on this call. think about that during the commercial break. >> i'm sure we will. >> self-would you rather, but you didn't -- >> she didn't bite. coming up, netflix reporting tomorrow. what to expect from the report and the way to play the outcome with options. and here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam. he's chatting with crowdstrike's ceo. catch the interview, top of the hour. more "fast money" in two. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab.

welcome back so "fast money." we've only just started this earnings season you, with a slaf big names reporting tomorrow. netflix getting a boost ahead of tomorrow's report after evercore isi reiterated its outperform rating, saying it sees analyst estimates as reasonable. options traders expecting a sizable move.

mike khouw has a way to take advantage of this. mike? >> yeah, so, it is implying right now about a move, call it 8% higher or lower by the end of the week. as big a move as that is, that's actually lower than the nearly 14% or so that the company is actually averaging over the last eight reported quarters. and i think we can take advantage of the slightly lower options premiums that we're seeing going into the earnings print, potentially by hedging the -- basically the rally we've seen, buying the march 475/435 put spread. that was going to cost you 12 bucks per share, or, about 2.5% of the current stock price. the company has guided essentially towards 20% margins, and it hasn't really managed to string quarters together. it is reasonably priced if it achieves them, but if it does not, it's a cheap way to hedge this position. >> i think this has been a strong uptrend.

it's clearly the best in class. i'm 100% in line with professor mike khouw here. he who has no insurance eventually loses their home. and i think that case -- that is the case here, as well. >> like a bumper sticker. >> or something that you sew into a pillow. or a fortune cookie. all of the above. netflix? >> we've liked it for a long time. i'm concerned into earnings this move that we've seen over the last six months, go back two years, quite frankly, it was $180 stock. might set up not particularly well post-earnings if you are long the stock, i would suggest taking some profits. i understand why people want to let it ride still. >> you own it still? >> i do. it's not cheap, right? >> yeah. >> we all know what it has going for it. it's over, they've won streaming this is something you would sell upside calls. >> do you look at this, though, when we are starting to readapt to the new netflix, with that ad tier, which has gone from 5 million to 15 million to 23

million now. is that the next headwind? that's what it feels like to me -- sorry, tailwind. that's the next leg of the story, where i had thought that the others would catch up. they've obliterated all the others. every time i thought this would sell off, it just -- it's been bulletproof. so, i get guy's point, i think it's a little extended, but that ad tier seems as though that's an incredible tailwind that maybe it is flattening out, but that seems like an awful lot of dollars they're going to start taking in. >> the question is, what do you think is priced in for that ad tier improvement continuing? i don't know exactly, it's hard to differentiate what's what. but it's not cheap. >> the data points -- >> as the numbers come in. >> and that's what it's been rallying on. >> mike, do you see any notable activity with the others reporting tomorrow? >> yeah, i mean, of course, a lot of the stocks that we have reporting are seeing some pretty big volumes. it's interesting to me that like netflix, and actually, if you just look at the vix index,

that's going to give you a sense of what we're seeing in the options market, which is more than anything, i think people are -- some who were expecting rotation out of some of the highest flying stocks were seeing real strength in them. we saw upside call buying and the risk premium that we're seeing is surprisingly low. and that's one of the reasons why, you know, i might favor using something like a put spread rather than say selling upside calls as karen's talking about. that's a strategy that can make a lot of sense. but when options premiums are low like this, we're sitting at all-time highs, you know, maybe getting a little bit of insurance is a good way to play it. >> all right, mike, thank you. always good to see you. mike khouw. that netflix -- we'll be trading it tomorrow, the conference call is at 4:45 tomorrow, before our show, which is a change. it's usually at 6:00. >> that's going to be fun. >> that will be fun. we can actually -- >> uh-huh. >> trade something. all right. up next, final trades.

you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) constant contact's advanced automation lets you send the right message at the right time, every time. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪) ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's healing formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond.

time for the final trade. steve? >> alphabet. they couldn't own a.i. last year. they're going to leave their mark in it this year. >> chairwoman? >> yes. i've been surprised the banks haven't rallied more with this market, and think i they are undervalued. go with best of the best, jpmorgan. >> bonbonawyn? >> i'm always also in the banks. fifth-third. a stable deposit base and talking about possible share buy-backs, you are in a good

spot? >> guy? >> you thought the chiefs would win in buffalo. once again, you are right, and you mentioned it -- you have your apprehensions about baltimore this weekend. we'll get into it at the end of the week. palo alto networks, mels. >> thank you for watching "fast money." don't go anywhere. my mission is simple. make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull working somewhere, and i promised to you find it. mad money starts now. hello, i am jim cramer. welcome to mad money. i'm just trying to make a little money. my job, not just to entertain, but to educate and teach. you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me at jim cramer. and then there were six. the magnificent ones, the seven