and alibaba cofounders have picked up shares between them and the less he wants, according to regular filing in the new york times. alibaba is down nearly 21% since the plan spinoff of its cloud business was canceled. >> thanks for watching power lunch, everybody. closing bell begins in five, four, three, now . welcome to closing bell. i'm scott walker hear from the new york stock exchange. beginning with the recent high for stocks, and whether the bull market is too stressed or just right. we'll debate that in just a bit with two well-known wall street walters on two different sides of the debate. in the meantime, your scorecard was 60 minutes ago and regulation looks like that. dow is trying to get off its worst levels of the day. moving that way. 3m has been dragging the dow all day long . that stock is weak.

weakness as well for goldman, home depot, travelers out of the insurance base. they are all in the red at this hour. on the flipside, united airlines a big winter after beating expectations. we are also watching microsoft here making a bit of a mid-day run, trying to hit $3 trillion in market cap. you see it steadily creeping higher through the session. we are watching yields pretty closely, too. the ten-year hits for 15, the two year moved above 440. we had a pretty good bond auction earlier and maybe that took the summer off of rates today. it takes us to our talk of the take. is there enough going right for stocks to keep going up? let's ask greg branch. he is the founder of the veritas financial group. our chief investigator strategist is going to be along shortly. the stage to begin is all yours . is there too much exuberance in this market or not? >> surprise, surprise, scott, i think so. and look, this is coming from someone who readily admitted

that i miss most of the performance in 2023, who readily admitted that on december 13th when we had to increase my exposure of its performance. but when we look back at what kicked the rally off, when we look back at all the fire that was thrown, all the gasoline thrown upon the flame, much of that has reversed. if the market has not reacted to that. let's talk about the jobs number that came in at 150. let's talk about cpi at the came in 25th back in october. all those things leading us to believe or at least leading someone to extrapolate that we have reached a new paradigm. those numbers have reversed. we jumped back into that -40 basis points of growth for the last couple months. we saw the jobs number rebound, seeing historical low claims again. even though we had' of it, even that has reversed to some degree, where you have the

numbers like bostic, like waller coming out and trying to say as diplomatically as they can, wait a minute, we are not looking for six or seven cuts, we are very clearly saying there might be three cuts and very clearly thing that is going to happen on march 31st. we once again have a situation where the market expectations are very different than what the fed has articulated, very different from what the fed said they would do. and the things i thought caused the rally at 22 times, we are just not seeing those things continue and we are not getting the earnings to continue this route. >> where you trying to find bad news in the good? you can't have it both ways, you can't say well, we are going to have a recession, we are going to have a recession, and in the economic data remains stronger than you think and say well, now the economy is just too strong and that will

force the fed to keep rates higher for longer when the evidence would suggest and the trend would certainly suggest inflation coming down, growth remains good, the fed regime is changing. they made a pivot, they're going to cut. who cares if it is marked or not. cuts are coming. no more hikes are coming, more than likely. >> well, the devil is in the details here. i never use the r word. >> you cited a long and lag effects of the policy. you intimated that that is where we were heading. let's not get semantics here. we both know what you are inferring. >> of course. i never back away from what i infer or what i stated explicitly. we do need more slowing. as you said, we cannot have this both ways. we are not going to get to a sustainable 2% number at the rate that the economy is growing right now. that is just not going to

happen. it has never happened in all of history with these type of financial conditions. so we do need more slowing. we are seeing some. we are not seeing enough, given that we are still fighting this battle with inflation. i think the fed goes to great lengths to remind people that we cannot say it is over. so i'm splitting hairs little bit here, but it's not flowing fast enough for the fed to have to cut, and it is growing too strongly to say that yes, inflation will get what we needed to get, inflation will meet the fed mandate on its own. >> i'm glad you bring this up. because it could not be more timely for commentary we got from james bullard. he is the former st. louis fed president, so he is retiring. however, he gives an interview a little while ago in which he says the fed could begin lowering interest rates for he expects that they will, before inflation hits 2%, and that it could come as soon as march.

quote, they don't want to get into the second half of 24, and inflation is already at 2% and you have not moved the policy. that would be too late. inflation on a 12 month core basis could get to 2% by the third quarter of this year. that was an influential member, maybe nonvoting on the fed in this particular go round, but nonetheless there is your fed speaker who suggests inflation is going down at a fast enough clip, and they're going to cut rates before he gets to target. they told you that themselves. >> like you said, nonvoting members, we had three voting members come out and say that it is unlikely that it will be march. i guess we will see. the key to these, scott, is that hidden in that december 13th notes is that the fed expects we are going to get to an unemployment rate of 4.1%. that, in and of itself, has been revised.

let's take 4.1. i haven't done the math the way that they have. right now we are at 3.7, and still getting lower and lower claims. still getting lower continuing claims. i don't see how we get to 4.1, and i think it is incumbent upon the fed to explain to us how we get to 4.1% unemployment . in the current environment with financial conditions. >> they don't need it to get higher. in fact, they don't care about that anymore. what they once thought does not need a have it. they don't need to kill the economy anymore like they first thought. they needed the crush demand, needed to have unemployment skyrocket to kill inflation. because they come to the realization that the inflation that was caused was not primarily caused by some excess demand within the economy because of the growth. it was caused by existential things that happened as a result of the pandemic, plus some stimulus that was piled on top of it. >> so when you say that they no longer believe that, i am referencing notes from the

december 13th meeting. i am not referencing things that were six months ago or eight months ago. if they changed their mind in the last three weeks, so be it. but i am referencing the latest thinking that with intimated in the thought process of the 4.1%. downgraded from the 4.4%. and yes, we can relitigate why the correction was caused in 2022 predicting the hyper inflationary environment. at this juncture, at this juncture, in order for us to get down to two because we have seen a steady 30 basis points month after month. we have not seen a new paradigm shift. and we do need to get below 30 basis points. we have not done anything, and i think something more will need to happen for us to have a new paradigm on that over month growth report. it has helped us out, and that is been great. it might not always be that way.

>> your point is that you think the fed is going to cut this year, but you think it is for the wrong reasons? what is the story there? >> no, i think we are more likely to see one last hike before they start cutting. again, i always own up to what i said. previous to this i did not think we were going to have cuts this year at all, just because we were not experiencing enough disinflation. that may change. we started to see the housing component move. it went in october from going 60 basis points month over month, went down to 20. it has since come back. but this is what can make my entire thesis wrong, that the housing component moves in a significant way, that will be enough to solve all of the issues that i'm pointing out. >> okay, stay with me as i can. let me bring in our senior economics reporter. i want to react to all of this. he knows the fed better than anybody. so bullard makes these comments, steve. at the same time the wall street has been pricing out march. now he suggests well, we think that inflation could get down to target maybe faster than

people think, and the fed is not going to wait until he sees that right in its face. it's going to act before that, and i could come as early as march. what you make of all this? >> well, the idea of the federal reserve cutting before 2% is sort of fed policy. i believe it was policy before bullard left the fed back in the summer of last year. and so, that has been something that is inspected. the question is when they might pull the trigger. that is where the market has been going back and forth. what i think it's been interesting is that i think the fed is been somewhat it successful in talking the market out of march. if you look at the robability of march, they are down below 50% now. those were as high as 80% last year after powell spoke at the december meeting. so we have come quite a ways down. it is pretty interesting to see what has happened both to

march. what you do see is that those percentages go up as you get into may and june, and i think scott, as i said before, might take on this is that i think may is a better time for the fed to hike, because i think they may go every other meeting. powell has shown that he likes every other meeting. i am a little bit arezzo white word, i guess in disagreement with my good friend greg branch it comes to the outcomes from inflation this year. inflation has surprised everybody. wall street forecasters and the fed to the downside. it is come down, and arguably, i believe, faster than anyone predicted. whether or not that continues is an open question, but i don't think you can debate the idea that everybody was on the upside or the wrong side of inflation this year in terms of where they thought it was going to end the year. >> you also heard greg make the case that he thinks there is

going to be one more hike. mr. bullard also throws on the table the idea of waiting too long, and the problems that would arise if the fed actually waits too long to get back to normal, so to speak. >> right. the fed is incredibly cognizant of what they call the long and variable lags. bullard talked a lot about that when he was in office. now that he is out he is still talking about it. that is good news, i suppose. the idea, scott, that the fed cannot wait to 2% is well ingrained in the fed. the idea being, though, that the fed does not want to see 3% built into people's minds or expectations. so i do think we need to get below that. friday is a big day, scott. we are probably going to hit on a 3-6 month basis. a 2% core pce number on a three month or six month annualized basis. we will be a trend. march, maybe they cut in march if you have two more good reports on that. but i believe may gives them

the opportunity to have as much data in the hopper there to say look, we've been at two, we can cut, we are not in danger of doing what greg branch says we might have to do, which is to hike again. >> steve, you stay with me. s&p and nasdaq are at record highs. these record highs. the dow is making its way well off the worst levels of the session. i see a down by 73 or so this moment. >> i'm happy, scott, to keep talking if the market is going up. >> it is, it is. brian, we had some trouble with your scott. you think this bull market is alive and well. that there is not too much exuberance about where stocks have gone and why. >> no, thank you, scott. i thank you for your patience here. we have been on record since november of 2023 that the

cyclical part of the bull market began in october of 2022. many people do not realize that until the market was up over 20% last year. within this, again, is part of a 25 your secular bull market that came into place in 2009. i'm going to show us. if you think about it, take two steps back. since august of 2007 investing has been all about the fed. that is when the fed opened up the discount window and effectively started q.v.. we continue to believe there is way too much focus on the fed. we've been doing this for a long time, we've been talking back and forth for a long time. remember when the greenspan briefcase indicator in the 90s, depending upon the thickness of his briefcase what the fed was going to do. then we moved on. we, meaning the stock market society. moving on depicting companies, industries, sectors, and stop worrying about the fed. i will leave you with this and you can ask me. fed funds futures. they've been

wrong for two years. for two years they have been wrong, and we have this intense -- i don't have any clue or any understanding why anyone in their right mind was thinking the fed was going to cut in the first quarter. i just don't understand that. and that is because of this intense focus on the fed and the lack of focus on looking at equity. guess what, we are running up the wall of worry. we are not seeing the forest for the trees and we are missing great opportunities and great companies. >> suffered get the fed. >> i think brian pointed out something that is really important. even those of us who would like to get away from talking about the fed and predicting the fed, we just can't. so take the fourth quarter, for example. remember, that was one of my big concerns in 2023, that i thought the consensus was just way too high for the fourth quarter. that turned out to be right.

and 8% came down to 1.6% by the end of the quarter. usually down river visions of that magnitude pose a stiff headwind to equity performance, and adjusted not matter. because all that mattered was what did the fed going to do. yes, inflation was going to come down by itself, that became the conversation. whether we want to focus on fundamentals or not, this has to be part of the calculus for now. it had such an overbearing effect on performance. >> you make the point that the economy is too strong to bring inflation down to where the fed needs it to get to. liesman my love for you to weigh in on that idea. because i think it was pretty explicit in the last fed meeting in the news conference from chair powell that he does not believe that the economy is too strong at this point to bring inflation down. he thinks it is a godsend, almost, that the economy has remained stronger than even they thought it would and

inflation has come down at the clip it has, which means they might actually be able to pull this off. and you can feel the confidence exuding from chair powell in the last presser, i thought. >> scott, i have been waiting for this moment on television for a long time. i want to do my very best bill barr imitation.. . in the wake of a pandemic that was a supply shock, you do not need growth to slow in order for inflation to come down. that is what we have learned. inflation came down, growth did not slow, and i will tell you this. i'm going to put up a graphic here that i believe to be wrong. i have never put up a graphic i thought to be wrong. this when i think is wrong. this is our cnbc wrap it up date. you are going to see wo pieces of information in this chart. one, economists have had to upgrade their forecast again for the fourth quarter by 1.2 percentage points. again for the first quarter this year by nearly a full

percentage point. but the thing that is wrong, that i think is wrong, is that they are still forecasting that slump. that slump has been something that is moving ahead of us two quarters in the future, and it has been wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. i don't know that the slope happens again., you do not have to have growth come down in order for inflation to come down in a post-pandemic period. >> this time is different. that is essentially the argument. >> i was going to harken back because i have had this argument off-camera with both of you, both you and steve. i continue to disagree, scott. i think that it is only different insofar as the cycle has been elongated. we must see a cycle. i can tell you why the cycle has been elongated. it is the reason why i was wrong in 2023, because not only

did we have the great wealth transfer from governments to companies and individuals, to strengthen and fortify the balance street more strongly and more silently than many of us anticipated, but we also the great refinance, which did that, as well. we have not seen spending come down either from a corporate perspective or a consumer perspective in the ways that one might expect after you have 500 basis points of rate hikes. we needed that to get to 2%. >> we can move off the fed and get on turnings, because ultimately that is what's going to matter, probably in the near term more than anything else. brian, greg makes the case that earnings are already not good enough. they have not started out great and they're going to prove to be not strong enough to keep this market going higher. you would make the exact counterargument to that, wouldn't you? >> i would, just like i did a year ago. we were right a year ago, and revisions are still pretty strong. i think that comes from looking

at the market as a total. you have to take a look at the bottoms up side of things, and where you see the contribution of earnings coming in from especially technology and munication services. and yes, there've been parts of financials that have been very strong to help the consumer, so i think that this argument about earnings not being strong , they are just not looking at the right data, just like they were not a year ago. i think it is more building out the bearish narrative in terms of our growth is slow. we see no analytical or anecdotal evidence with any of the earnings work that we do. >> even denny, who is a huge bowl on the market, talking about an exuberant melt of phase that could be underway as we speak. howard marks was on the network today, astute market watcher. he is a legend talking about whether people are too optimistic, that so many things have to go right in order, and these positives in his words have been compounding, as if they are all just going to fall into line and that is going to

justify where we are and why we can take another leg higher in the bull market. >> well, let's look at my forecast. $250 of earnings at 5100, that is not exactly jump up and down, given the fact that the market is at highs. i don't doubt that we got a little too far ahead of our skis here. i will doubt that we softened up a little bit. but common sense says especially the second half of the year as we settle into evaluations and what we like to call your two of normalization with respect to price- performance for the market being high single digit, low double digit, and earnings growth being that. i can see that the market is probably, and i don't disagree, a little bit ahead of itself. you still should be an investor. if you would've been bearish and messed with the big apple rebound, you have to mess with individual issues and by when the opportunity comes. >> yeah, apple is pushing back towards 200, i'm glad you mentioned that. as nasdaq extends its gains,

microsoft pushes closer to 3 trillion in market cap. i'm going to leave it there. real quick, steve. >> i was just going to make one small point, which is that i think it is possible for the economy to do well and it be a challenge time for margins this year. i think this is the year of consolidation, where companies have high and rising prices last year, hopefully this year they have at least stable, maybe even falling prices. i could see this year being a year consolidation report, better profits in the year ahead. >> it's interesting you say that. adam parker has made the case model times on this very program that this will be the year that margins hold up, and margins do well. that is why he has turned probably a little more bullish than he was a handful of months ago. gentlemen, thank you so much. i love it. thank you so much, everybody. we will see all of you soon. let's send it to christina now for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. >> let's start with dr horton. those shares are dropping. keep in mind that at the beginning of that particular quarter, 30 year mortgages in

the united states where around 8% as a two decade high. the company promised to reduce home prices and increase incentives to encourage sales, yet the stock is down 9%. from price cuts to price hikes, doctor and gamble shares a higher after the consumer staples stocks saw net sales rise a percent as revenue is boosted by price hikes. the company also narratives full-year outlook for its adjusted eps, and you can see shares are above 4% higher. >> will be back to you shortly. we are just getting started. up next, your netflix set up. the streaming giant reporting earnings in ot. jason snipe, he owns that stock. they are going to break down u at they see on that report. yoare watching closing bell on cnbc . ct hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to...

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we are back with netflix preparing to release its q4 earnings and overtime. investors looking for an update on company progress and cracking down on password sharing an interest in its lower-priced ad supported subscriptions. netflix announced this morning is beginning to stream wwe flagship program wall next year. it's first major foray into line sports. let's bring in big technology and honesty to discuss. both are cnbc contributor's. jason is the netflix shareholder. i'll get you in just a second, jason, but your first, alex, this first foray into line sports. is that what you expected it to be, the very first of a bigger one? >> yeah, i would say netflix is already committed to line

sports. they are doing wwe, they are doing formula one, which you can call a sport. they're doing tennis. so they have this cash advantage against their rivals. they have to exploit that. when you think about where they could be overtaken, you have got spending 110 million on one playoff game. it's sports, it's live events. i don't really see this as a one-off. this is the beginning of a program and they're going to keep doubling down from here. >> is at the right move? >> i love it, honestly. this is what's going to attract larger audiences. it is not the hit business. sports, that is a beautiful ball. you can depend on that audience. they will be with you weekend and week out. as opposed to a show that may or may not hit. i love the idea. it is a moment where the competition is weak. netflix has a lead. how do you explain it? >> jason, does the shareholder like this? >> absolutely. i could not agree with alex anymore. it is a low stakes deal. i think sports is a holy grail for a lot of folks, it is the only reason they are still attached to linear tv. it is a $5 billion deal over 10

years with an opt out in five, and i think they are attracting and they are able to attract a new audience. again, from a distribution perspective there is 250 million users. there is opportunity to cross out, and to alex's point, breakpoint, great on the tennis side, formula one, they have already been in the space. i think this is the next continuum for them. >> the street seems to be lukewarm going into the number. a lot of that probably has to do with the fact that the stock has rallied so much. the average price target on netflix shares is barely above where the stock is trading now. what is that due to where expectations are going into the print? >> yeah, scott, without a doubt expectations are extremely high. if i look at the net guidance for last quarter, a little over 5.5 million. and they produce a .7 million. now we are above eight in terms of guidance, and likely going to be slightly above that. they are guiding right around there. so expectations are much higher. again, to point, the stock is up 20% in the last three

months, and 37% since reported last quarter. it has moved a lot. this is important news, i think, today, but the stock moves. it has been very volatile, as you know, through earnings when they report. >> yeah, 700 bucks, let's not forget about that. you have to keep that in perspective when we look at the shares. what do you make of what the stock has done, what that does to expectations going into overtime tonight? >> it's in a weird position because it is still more than 20% down from the pandemic highs. that said, it had this large run-up and is trading at an expensive multiple. if you think about whether investors will rotate out a tech, like what is the first when you're going to try to move money away from, it might be netflix. i think there is definite risk there and there has definitely been a run up on the stock it is very expensive. >> we know that the pickup of the less expensive version for subscribers has been slow. does it remain that way? do we have a meaningful increase in subs or not? >> double edge sword for

netflix. there's a lot of hope, they have added many monthly active users on the ad front. it does not correlate one-to- one subscribers, because you have many active users in one family, that is one subscriber. that being said, there i loaded according to reports and personal experience that i have had on the ad here is low. they are not selling through the ads at a rate that you would expect them to. you could say that is going to be one of two things. one means that netflix is bad at selling ads, or two is that they are in the early days and need to get a sales engine up and running. so at agencies are comfortable buying. if they get to that point where ad agencies will by, then you can see much more revenue coming through the ad product, and very interesting thing i just read is that the ad user might even be more worth to netflix after they watch the ads then the subscriber be. if they can fill the ad spaces that is really good news for them. >> live sports aside, do they have the new content to continue to add subs the way

you would like to see happen? i should also note this news, of course, in the last handful of days the film chairman is leaving that company to start his own venture. how are you thinking about what content i have and the ability for that to bring in new people? >> so, i think the content library has been rich for some time, and i go back to they are the leader in streamers, again, 250 million subscribers. and when i think about creators looking for distribution channels, i think this is the platform that is most attractive to them. i think they are better positioned than the other streamers. and of course, the strike from last year is a headwind for all the streamers, but netflix did a lot of content spending prior . that is why their cash flow continues to grow, because they have not had to spend as much money as of late. i continue to like the content library, and i think that is an

opportunity for them. >> with your content about that, is in question, content. >> everybody else is having to deal with the situation. i long thought that netflix was in the best position to handle it. they have a great reality television program, a bunch of fun dating shows and also heavy on the documentary front. people are watching those documentaries, the one about bowling is getting a lot of buzz. i think they're very well positioned in terms of programming. >> will leave it there, alex, thank you very much. we will see what happens during overtime. do not miss that earnings report. nt, ginupexamg out the fed. every field is back, mapping out when she is expecting the first cut. will get her take there, what she thinks about this record rally in the stock market as the s&p extends its gains now. 48-61, nasdaq higher, too. we are back right after this break.

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welcome back, the s&p 500 on track to hit another record close today with modest gains. investors digesting the latest batch of earnings, looking ahead to economic data for the past week. avery sheffield, cofounder and cio of vintage rock, welcome back. so s&p, positive. dow is still negative. even russell went positive a moment ago for a second. are we all good with this rally? >> i don't know. what i do think is clear is that i think that given the levels of the market and where we are at, s&p over 20 times

earnings, nasdaq, 28 times. i think it is going to be more of a show me story, especially for the more expensive stocks in the market. but there are still a lot of stocks that are dramatically less expensive, and that with very negative sentiments still built in that really could have the opportunity to really surprise. to the upside this earnings season and throughout the year. >> we had a highly regarded wealth manager on, you may know her, cheryl young yesterday. she is positive on the market. but she says we are priced for perfection. do you agree? >> at a market level it feels that way. you go back to the late 1990s, s&p multiples, nasdaq multiples, we get into the stratospheric levels and it is absolutely possible. but i think there are a fair number of stocks that are much closer to being priced for perfection, actually maybe even more of those stratospheric evaluations. more opportunity in the market are those opportunities that are more expensive and have the

opportunity for earnings growth to surprise for the upside of the year. >> out of the s&p 493, you're obviously referring to. >> but actually, not all the stocks, actually most of them i think have the potential for earnings. they are not, as i said before, they are not the culprits of the excessive valuations that we see ltr. their names are probably fine with. do they have the most asymmetry, to the upside, to your point, i think does come in the other 493. >> what you especially like? which part of the market, if we got even more granular? let's pick some places to look. >> right, one place that we really like is telecommunications, with verizon's report this morning to really reinforce our thesis that these companies have become much more stable cash cows than the market had appreciated in the past. and with verizon trading at over 10% free cash folio yield with turn stable, with them taking

price increases, with having to give you her cell phones for upgrades really suggests the free cash flow will expand in the year ahead. so you have that stock compared to a walmart which has years where sometimes they can grow earnings nicely, other years they grow earnings a bit. there is a lot of room for valuation expansion. what is going to happen to the fed, what is going to happen to the economy? i don't think it will have that material a difference on verizon's earnings had a really cheap stock. >> ford and general motors, you like these? >> we do also like auto. you have a spectrum, you have your bottom-line characteristics, stocks that have some more cyclicality. the companies we like in general, they have opportunity, and not just opportunity, they are executing on the company specific business plans, taking out costs, improving product with an overlay of the things

actually get weaker, rates go down. what happens when rates go down? cars get cheaper for people to buy. they do i kind of have a backstop if things get weaker. but they are both taking out meaningful costs. we expect we will see more of that to come, and the push out of ev adoption really gives them more time to build that out in a more cost-effective manner, develop products that are very competitive in the market. and at the same time have the benefit from their cash cows of the larger suv vehicles, in the case of ford, also electric vehicles, as well. >> general motors with the buyback. >> yes, 25% of their stock expected this year, 25% next year. quite substantial, trading at under five times earnings. >> give me your idea of, kind of let's go back to where we started, with mega caps. are the valuations crazy? do you think that earnings are going to live up to it? are we in danger of thinking

that more broad market is actually going to be narrow again? and if so, so be it? >> so, i think you have to be very stock specific on these. in the coming occasions services area you have two of those companies are trying to get multiples just over 20 times, not that much more expensive than the market, less expensive than the nasdaq. >> to you on any of these? >> we do on some. yes. in particular we like google and we like meta, because we think they have franchises. a lot of people are wondering about google's franchise with search and ai, but we think they're going to be a massive ai beneficiary , as well as meta . i think what people might miss or why it is not as expensive as some of the other stocks, is ai enables them to have more rapid adoption of free content creation. their whole business is based on free content creation. now it's my nine-year-old can create content with ai, it is sophisticated, she is going to be posting a lot more.

not that i love my nine-year- old posting. >> bullish case on nine-year- olds posting. all right. >> it to people who post more content generated, they can advertise on that. they are using ai to have their efficient advertising. i think with cookies going away you are going to see the networks have more more power, because they have more inherent information about people to make ads much more effective. >> it has been an incredible peak and valley, valley and peak, i should probably say, for meta shares. best year ever and 23, which brings us to now. speaking of now, the whole debate around the fed, how many cuts we got, when we get the first. what do you think? >> what i think is there is a lot of reflexivity. what i saw when i was last in november, i saw things really getting bad. gosh, we should be bearish. but things are getting bad, now

we have the benefit of the loosening of financial conditions we have seen since then. we have had interest rates come down, which is ruining the economy. the data points i am seeing now are much better than they were in october. so the question is, if things start flowing again, do e start anticipating rates going down again? and it is just a little blip, because that believes the economy of. as we are now, with the bullying we have had, marge, and unless there is some event unforeseen, june is far enough out, it is certainly possible with the real race near 2%. historically that is been restricted by itself. but we are not living in a by itself world. the market is getting votes to loosen conditions to make things better, which then means i think the easy money and assuming rates are going to go down quickly, that is probably have been made from here. is that likely to have and maybe overtime? should the market not propel think fire? certainly possible. >> we will follow-up.

moderation is the key for posting. we can agree on that. avery sheffield, thank you. next we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. pippa stevens is heading by with that. >> industrial giants sinking as consumer spending flows. we have the details coming up next. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

about 12 out from the closing bell, let's send it over the pippa stevenson for the stock she is watching. >> three shares are sinking after the company issued disappointing guidance with

measurements under the wall street forecast. companies say china consumer retail markets continue to be soft. and united in the green after the company reported higher- than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter. companies said hooking so far in 2024 have been solid, but did forecast a fourth quarter lost to the grounding of boeing's 737 max nine planes. ceo scott kirby telling cnbc earlier that the groundings are the quote straw that broke the camels back and that united will build a plan that oes ot have the max 10 in it. there shares at 5%. scott? >>.com, your earnings rundown. texas insurance among the big names reporting in overtime tonight. closing bell is coming right back.

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to help fuel operations for one of the world's largest racing events. now is the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business. we are now in the losing bell market zone. here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. two big earnings reports. we are waiting for in overtime. christine on texas instruments, julia on netflix. mike, i will begin with you. now you are a dove, mr.

bullard. >> exactly. interestingly, he does swing back and forth, depending on where the consensus is. but also, he is really reiterating something kyle has said for over a year, at least hypothetical back then, yeah, of course will be coming before we get to 2%. so i think that still feeds into the general level of comfort the market is displaying right now. not just with where the fed is, but also, it seems like you have had enough give related evidence that the economy is in an okay spot, inflation is going in the right direction that even if they get some adverse surprises one way or the other with the pce and gdp, you have a cushion against that at least in the intermediate term, if not on the reflex reaction. >> bond auction, watching the two-year auction for any trouble. you really did not get any. >> no, it was absorbed pretty well. i think we are in this mode right now of looking at things like a big bond option and seeing if we can check on that box, or do we have to start worrying about yield getting untethered, we have to start worrying about short-term investor and trader sentiment getting overdone.

>> apple goes up, brings a level of calmness to the environment, as well, don't you think? >> yeah, it always access that kind of counterweight to whatever we might be nervous about when it starts to work. >> all right, i think investors are a little bit nervous about texas instruments, especially after what happened in the last around. what we think? >> you're right, that is why the market has been lower. texas instrument makes chips from everything in everything from your fridge your car. management guided revenue lowered for the past 5/4, and that is because of a prolonged industrial correction and weakness in the auto sector. still a lot of questions about the auto sector, but change may be upon us. many analysts are betting that the bottom is near for texas instrument, although not everyone is jumping into the stock just yet. that is why you are seeing it underperformed. there are several reasons for that hesitation beyond the end market weakness i just talked about.

you also have possible cuts to fab utilization rates because of weak demand which would hit gross margins, and lastly, pricing pressure from competition in china. that is why you can say the chips are not all equal, exemplified by the discrepancy between computer chips name like andy saying up 14-21% year- to-date, and the analog names like on and xpi, both negative on your screen here today. texas instrument of 2.5% this year. not everything treated equal. >> are you watching this? >> for sure, because texas instruments, the stock is at a really nice comeback. it is funny how many people have said it is the out-of-favor that we are like for this year. you wonder how out-of-favor it is. it is always a high-quality operator and things like that. also, just watching how they behave right here. using the homebuilders kind of hesitate at the highest. semis over the last two years have tracked homebuilders over exactly. >> this name was like 130 something after the last earnings report, now it has

this big runback. >> since october it has had a near vertical buy. >> we will see you in ot with the results there. we will see julia in ot with the results on netflix, big news today around their foray into live sports. but from an earnings template, what we think? >> looking at q4, netflix is predicted to keep up its growth of what we saw in q3, the company expected to add nearly 9 million subscribers in the quarter which would be in line with last quarter's massive subscriber beat. the company excels projected 11% revenue growth in the quarter, that would be on a big leap in earnings per share. and this accelerating growth of reflected success continuing to crackdown on password sharing, as well as the upside from advertising after netflix announced that 23 million people view its ad supported option monthly. investors are also going to be looking for guidance on ad revenue going forward, as well as on strategy. plus, of course, netflix's plan for live events and sports

after today's $5 million deal with tko for wwe rights. the company is also sure to mention that it drew 18 oscar nominations this morning, including seven for maestro. scott? >> julia, thank you. we will see you in ot. when those results hit, the stock, speaking of tech and growth, nasdaq had a rip into their earnings report. now they have to live up to the hype. >> yeah, and i heard you talking about how the consensus price target is where the stock is right now. a little bit of reluctance to say that she go back to 40, 50 times earnings the way it was in 2020 and 2021. it also spent a ton of time jumping around this high 400, $500 a share level in that period before it launched up toward 700. i think people generally agree the company is doing almost everything right. it is a matter of the pacing of sub growth. was this a quarter where they managed to under promise enough in all the rest of it?

but actually it is now market cap wise, bigger than comcast as it becomes kind of a new cable bundle. >> so we are watching the market here. we have extended our record highs on the s&p and nasdaq, as well. having a little bit of stability today after being on the hot burner, probably helping that trade. dow has come way off its low, as well. >> it has. i just think kind of boring, slow markets tend to be reassuring more than they are for voting. that is lazy a little bit of that reaction. people have not been really max along believers in this market go again. when we see the narrowness in the leadership into the highs late last week, everyone kind of looks at it and does not know if they should really trust it. so i almost feel like when the market goes up in that fashion as it did much of last year, it almost rebuilds and sustains the wall of worry on its own without anyone having to do anything. does not mean we can't back off, but more new highs and new lows today, will 100 to 9 on the new york stock exchange. something still has some traction here, even if it looks like we went a long way in a

short period of time. >> we have some calls, of course, we highlighted over the last couple days if the market is priced for perfection or exuberance getting a little bit rich. we shall see, because the s&p 500 pulling in a new all-time closing high. so is the nasdaq today. dow jones is up. big earnings in ot. we are all over that. >> record closing highs for the s&p and nasdaq 400, the action is just getting started as the s&p closes at a new record. welcome to closing bell overtime. >> consumer staples in the consumer service making up the real estate and consumer discretionary research area. these are driving the benchmark index into record territory for a third straight day. now investors turning their attention to