good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. here we go it's thursday. if you check out the u.s. equities, you will see green arrows again even after the gains across the board yesterday. dow futures indicated up close to 100 points. nasdaq up 5 and the s&p up 3.5 if you check out the treasury market right now, you will see the ten-year yield is 4.15 we have the two-year note at 4.37 >> the dow is off. >> you are right the dow transports with the worst day since the beginning of

the january. s&p 100and nasdaq 100 >> everything backed off at the end of the session. >> f >> let's talk about the squawk planner. jobless claims at 8:30 a.m we will get the first look at gdp in the fourth quarter. polled forecasters expecting growth slowed to 2% from 4.9%. on the earnings front, we hear from southwest and american and blackstone and comcast that is all happening in the next hour. do not go anywhere we will bring you interview was the ceos of american airlines and blackstone after the reports. after the closing bell, wite ge numbers from intel and visa and t-mobile >> i thought it was the fourth look at the first quarter.

i have that back wards? i know it is supposed to be 2 or less coming down from 5 >> we will see. >> there is always an inventory thing. they will do that eventually we will talki about the second and third look at the fourth quarter. not today. an update on the grounded 737 max 9 aircraft the faa yesterday put limits on boeing's production of the jets. it did clear the way for the jets to return to service after the airlines complete inspections. the faa said it would not allow boeing to expand production until it is satisfied the quality control issues uncovered during the process are resolved. the ntsb is still reviewing the door plug after the blowout on

january 5th. they will go through the rigorous maintenance process and the review of the bolts and guide tracks and fittings. carriers will need to tighten fasteners and fix any problems we find. >> that sounds simple. >> united is planning to return to service on sunday i'm flying on sunday it is not that kind of plane yesterday, maria cantwell met with dave calhoun. she will hold hearings to investigate the root cause of the problems the ceo of alaska air is not happy. thank god no one -- they found loose bolts on many planes. >> that is a serious, serious

issue. basically go check every bolt yourself and make sure it is tightened. >> and fasteners and sliders >> that's -- i would be upset if it was my car. to have a plane in that situation. i feel totally safe flying once they cleared these things and checked them once you have somebody to go back and look at them, i would feel safe flying sg >> i would, too. >> i'm glad they are doing inspections. >> tighten those bolts is there something snelse >> it points to quality control. talking about airlines -- >> thank you moving right along i was going to talk about it we have to talk about this it is not just tesla

alaska airlines just reported 30 zec cents a share. the revenue was in line with expectations the company is preparing to complete the inspections of the 737 max 9 aircraft they will return to service after any findings are resolved. a programming note the ceo of alaska airlines is going to be on "the exchange" today at 1:15 eastern. $4.5 billion equity doesn't really describe the significance of what alaska air has come to mean in recent -- is it hawaiian air that made sense. alaska and hawaiian. last two states. is that happening? you are the merger guy talking about mergers, alex sherman is out reporting that david ellison made a preliminary offer to buy national amusements

in a bid to take control of paramount global ellison had discussions about merging his film and tv studio with sky dance into paramount after he takes control the 77% of the paramount voting stock for sherri redstone. this would take paramount global private. warner bros./discovery had the discussions about acquiring paramount, but it is not on the table. >> i guess it was on it was in december the whole deal was 1.9 shares of ibm are sharply higher the company's revenue topped wall street estimates. earnings in line at the company outlook for revenue and cash flow came in higher than expected ibm said it will continue to streamline operations and it is

announcing plans to cut a percentage of positions in the low single digits this year. it will continue to hire for other roles and expects the overall head count to remain steady expected 173 remember buffett adding the positions and lessening positions. 140. >> something like that >> $158 billion in market cap. i don't know microsoft showed us what legacy tech is supposed to do ibm. i don't know what ibm is at this point. we are watching shares of seagate. it reported a profit for the december quarter revenue down 18% year over year. the revenue outrlook was in line for the quarter. seagate is seeing signs of

improving demand from cloud data center customers and that's important. the stock looks like it is down 67 cents. there are shares of las vegas sands higher after the sales rose 161% from the prior year a lot of this is because chinese travel to macau rose to 88% in the pre-pandemic levels. gambling topped for the second straight quarter earnings represented the highest growth we have seen since the pandemic up from a 19-cent loss a year ago they did fall short of the expectations you can see that stock up 3% a programming note chairman and ceo rob goldstein is on "power lunch" in the cnbc interview. >> we have to give more credit to ibm when is the last time you saw ibm up 13 points in a day? it is a big deal

>> 7.5%. >> it is also going to trade in a new yearly high all the way an back to the 180 or so. the last time it was anywhere near this was 2017 >> that is a long-term stock. >> a chart, if we do a longer-term chart, it looks like this. >> we have ridiculous white space on the top and it doesn't show the climb. >> how long where it has been with the wrap and the revenue keeps declining. this was a revenue beat, i guess, and it was up -- maybe they finally -- >> this chart doesn't do it justice. you cannot see the dramatic climb. >> it has been over 1180

march of -- are you reading your twitter feed >> no. >> 171 was the high in 2017. really, we have to go back to 2014 to get these results. that's a ten-year high we glossed over that kudos. >> recent climate the end. when we come back, tesla shares are falling phil lebeau has the highlights from the conference call and results. "squawk box" will be right back.

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with qualifying internet. welcome back tesla shares under pressure after the ev company narrowly missed earnings and the expansion will be lower this year phil lebeau has more phil, those words were their words. that is part of the concern. >> yeah. that's the concern, becky. also, most people expected, i shouldn't say everybody, but most people expected tesla to give us some kind of a number in terms of the deliveries for 2024 you got notably lower growth in 2024 than 2023 let's talk about the numbers first and then the outlook they missed on the top and bottom line. the gross auto margins, excludeing the credits, came in better than expected 17.1%. the street expecting 15.7%

there is the key 2024 deliveries. the company will be notably lower. slower growth in 2024 than 2023 in terms of how much dleliverie grow when you look at the annual, they hit 1.mil3 million. go back to 2022, they were up 40%. now you are not sure how much they will grow in 2024 here is elon musk on the conference call talking about why the slowdown is happening as they transition to the next generation vehicle they plan to build. s>> it will be at the factory i austin, texas. we will follow that up with other locations around the world. probably the factory in mexico will be second and then looking to identify the third location, perhaps, by the end of this year or early next outside of america. >> left unsaid during the conference call is the ev market

overall, for all automakers, is slowing down in termsof the rate of growth relative to what we saw in 2023 it is still growing, but not as quickly. tesla finished number one in global ev sales. in the fourth quarter, it was topped by byd in china during the call, elon musk talked about chinese ev companies and chinese automakers overall and they are expanding rapidly around the world. they are very good if countries are not prepared with trade restrictions, the chinese will demolish. that is the word elon musk used. demolish the competition look at shares of tesla. the energy storage business is a bright spot up 30% year over year there is not a lot to like, guys, because of how vague they are about vehicle deliveries happening in 2024. how much will they grow? >> i guess that's better than making numbers up when it is a

hazy outlook phil, we were talking about it off camera joe said if you can't move teslas, it is indicative of the ev market. you saw huge growth and pushing behind it. this is a different year for everybody. >> yeah. remember, they have a different dynamic in terms of the factory in shanghai and the competition in china from the electric vehicle companies over there the overall market for autos in china has been slowing down. you have this capacity that is there that the chinese automakers are saying first, we have to boost sales at home. let's force others to cut prices by the way, we still have extra capacity let's ship around the world. that is what he is talking about in terms of the chinese automakers not just with evs, but the overall market >> phil, are you going to bring us or drive a u 9?

have you seen that ultra ev sports car from byd? they are serious about it. >> i have seen it. >> is it a good car? >> i have. everybody that i talked with who has spent time -- they will cool looking. the quality is there with a number of the chinese evs. i have been in them in europe. you are not seeing the chinese evs around here any time soon given the trade restrictions we have here. >> phil, i love the honesty that elon had on the call which is to say if we don't do something about the tariffs, these cars are great and you have to do something here at the same time, elon has a huge business in china aren't the chinese looking at him and saying that? >> he walked a very tight line to this point. >> sure. they are looking at him. look, tesla imports evs that are

made in china into north america. they are brought into canada some models built in china are brought into canada and sold in canada we don't bring evs built in china to the u.s. because of the 25% tariff it is prohibitive for an a automaker to build in china and move here. you can look around the world. i have been in europe and i know you have been in europe. when you were in davos, if you took an uber, you were probably taking ap chinese vehicle >> phil, quickly, you talk about byd quality. they are telling us we have to go i love to get your upon the latest with boeing the quality issues and what this means and how serious this is here >> it is very serious.

they can't expand production until the faa is satisfied that the culture and safety culture at boeing is 100% better that's being blunt about it. the faa is looking at boeing right now and saying you have to do the basics of blocking and tackling better than in the past it is not enough to say that we're going to put inspectors and improve things we want to see it. we want proof you are improving your safety culture. that's why they are limiting production it is interesting to see what boeing says about the guidance long term. they plan to get up to 50 per month in max production by 2025 and 2026 that will be driving the free cash flow target they set out at $10 billion annually in 2025-2026. de does that change if that changes, the changes your outlook as an investor.

will you hang on to boeing here and wait for it to kick in with the free cash flow this is a significant move by the faa. >> phil, i saw conflicting things yesterday who assembled the fuselage i saw some story that it wasn't spirit boeing actually put the plug back on. >> the report from "the seattle times" that the work on the door plug on the alaska airlines plane that was ripped off. the ntsb has not made a final statement. >> the bolts were left off, it said, not just not tightened, but boeing -- >> joe, we should point out that report was based on an anonymous report whistleblower it was a single source could it be true

possibly we are waiting for the ntsb. >> as long as we characterize it like that. it was out there >> that was "the seattle times" report we will hear from the ntsb as a tentative finding of the investigation in the next few weeks is my guess where they come out with a tentative finding. that is not final root cause that is likely what we will see. >> the alaska airlines guy is not happy? >> i don't blame him you take a brand new plane and have you seen the interview? he is at dinner and sees pictures of the chunk of the plane ripped off a brand new plane. >> for two months. now they are saying go back and check all of the bolts and sliders. that's like self assembly. phil, thank you. we will get to see you a lot this morning we will see you for quarterly

results from southwest and american airlines and the interview with robert isom in the next hour. we will see a lot with phil today. coming up, new york city declaring social media a public health crisis. what mayor eric adams says about it we will also get a look at the fourth quarter gdp when " "squawk box" comes back. (applause) finally, we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna... ♪ and then we looked around and said, "wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller!" (laughter) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mm-hmm. cool! i don't get it. here's to getting financially ready for anything. and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha? ( ♪♪ )

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welcome back in the state of the city address, mayor eric adams stated

social media say public health threat >> you need to protect students from harm online including the growing dangers presented by social media. from companies like tiktok, youtube and facebook a mental health crisis with addictive and dangerous features we cannot stand by and let big tech monetize our children's privacy and jeopardize their mental health. >> mayor adams calling on federal and state lawmakers to combat predatory practices it would treat social media like other health hazards my kids are now teenagers, not all of them yet, but it is an epidemic in high house i don't think i appreciated the challenges and problems that social media can create. >> this is what you know about, too. you can't know everything. >> that's a separate issue >> this is something i have been

upset about for a long time. new york city has bigger issues they are facing at the moment. this is a sleight of hand. this is a long time coming the bullying and the way you feel about your body and body images that go along with it >> teenager boys i don't want to think of what i would be -- >> if you had it when you were a teenager >> yes >> i think new york city has a lot of bigger issues >> i would be more screwed up than i already am. coming up -- >> it is a national problem. it needs to be dealt with. >> i didn't immediately say that is ridiculous like the mayor said >> i don't think it is >> the nanny state or anything i sort of feel for him on that. key economic data head

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. here live from the nasdaq market site in it times square. look at futures. dow jones industrial average up 73 nasdaq up 3. s&p up 2 we got a big slate of earnings out now. i want to tell you about dow with earnings of 43 cents a share. 3 cents high are than analysts expected falling over the prior year to $10.62 billion which was driven by the decline in operating segments due to the slow macro

economic environment they are expecting softness in demand to continue in the first quarter. executives say they are encouraged by positive signals of construction and consumer electronics segments the stock up marginally on the news, but down 7% on the year. a couple of hours from now, we get the latest reading on the gdp. the economists expect the economy to grow 2% over 4.9% from the third quarter let's bring in veronica carr and peter bookvar. i'll start, veronica, with peter. he is all confused then i'll go to you and you have to explain everything to him

hopefully you have to help him out. peter, you have never -- there are so many crosscurrents and you don't know if you are coming or going at this point with the economy? >> let's slice and dice it the consumer spending on travel and leisure. you have lower and middle income consumers which are really continuing to prioritize spend a company called monroe which exchange your tires talked about how consumers instead of going in and getting four new tires, they are buying one or two instead of buying the top tier, they are buying the lower tier to save money. the manufacturing sector in the recession, which it is globally as consumers shifted spend and we are seeing this destocking. you have the existing home market which is the slowest since the mid '90s, but the new build market is doing okay you have the massive amount of

government spending to help dp goose the economy. the picture is mixed overall i still worry that the lag effect of higher interest rates will continually flow through the economy both this year and next year keeping a lid on growth >> veronica, it all adds up in your view to something that i don't know if i would call it friendly, but it doesn't seem that threatening if we get a 2% gdp and somewhere around 2% pce, that just sort of looks like a soft landing. what's the big deal? >> this does look like a perfect 2% quarter i do agree the picture is mixed especially with the details of the labor market we got. we did see the slowing in the labor market toward the end of last year. layoff rates are still very low. hiring rates dropped to 2014

levels it takes people longer to find a job. consumer delinquencies rising. that points to things slowing down that might continue with the lag effect of policy higher rates weighing on activity i think the big question is we have the loosening of the financial conditions and is that enough to really delay that recession for 2024 >> and that equates to how many rate cuts or would you be crazy to tell me when and how many >> that is our job we have to put some timeline to this and numbers to this we are expecting the first cut in june. that's 125 total if they go every meeting. that is the base case. part of that could be that by june, we see the fiscal activity i think the fed has told us they are on the path to cutting rates. the issue is the timing of that. >> peter, does that jibe with

your thinking? >> yes, but the fed's job is complicated here we're going to see continuous slowdown in service price this year as slower rental growth works through the calculation. we are possibly going to see an uptick in goods prices after prices have come down sharply here i think jay powell's worst nightmare is seeing inflation flare up again if they cut as an degrees san francisco aggressively as the bond market moves in, that means we have recession on our hands if they cut a few times, that is nice, but we are talking about a 4.25% fed fund rate which is a far cry from zero. >> we are still better off than the rest of the world. we cannot count on europe or china.

>> the european economy is seeing no growth look at germany and uk and france china is having its challenges complicating the story is other emerging markets are doing really well. look at southeast asia and brazil and look at chile and peru and other parts of asia we had the most aggressive monetary tightening in 40 years and the emerging markets did not blowup i can't remember the last time that happened which tells me they are on much better stead. it is a mixed bag with the global economy over the u.s. economy. >> veronica, you go from 4.9% to 2% and that happened again, we go from minus 2% do you think we go to below 1% no negative trends this year >> i would not count on that yet. we have seen that slowing in the labor market data the last three

or six months or so. the big question is in q1, as we get into the spring, are lower rates we had in the last couple months enough to restimulate activity and prevent further slowing? it may be. we have seen housing activity picking up and mortgage applications that are rising we are watching the first couple months of the year to know if we will slow further. we very well may still. >> all right veronica clark and peter boockvar who came up with the boock report that is clever did you come up with that? >> i have to credit my cousin for thinking up that idea. >> that is pretty obvious. when i see it, i think you get the boock report >> yeah. >> do you read it? >> yeah. southwest airlineses reporting quarterly results. phil lebeau is joining us right now with the numbers hi, phil

>> becky, this is the beat on the top and bottom line. 37 zecents a share in the fourt quarter. revenue at $6.82 tbillion. there are the numbers within the numbers in the fourth quarter. revenue per seat negative.8.9% capacity increasing more than 21%. remember, the fourth quarter is in comparison to the meltdown quarter at the end of 2022 really screwy comparisons over what was available for them to fly and what they weren't flying the q1 guide that people are focused on here. capacity up 10% for the first quarter revenue per seat, 2.5% to 4.5% the company is expecting double digit operating revenue growth and adding 79 max planes in 2024 remember, they have a big, big

order for max planes, especially the newest version the dash 7. that is spread out over the next several years. we will speak to bob jordan later on this morning. you don't want to miss this interview. this is the cnbc exclusive coming up on "squawk on the street." we will talk about 2024 and the max planes they have order ed scheduled for delivery this year and next several years back to you. thank you. american arirlines is next. we will bring you those numbers and the inter you hview with th ceo robert isom. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers

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in political news, a course tells cnbc that reid hoffman does not prepare to give nikki haley anymore money for her campaign he said he is a supporter of president biden, but believed haley had the best chance of

beating president trump in the-y plan to publicly support haley, but were not convinced they would raise much money for her campaign because of the losses in the first two toncontests >> it's fine i understand why people have just the strongest opinions. he said there are two elections involving trump. since we have two, i'll do all i can with both to make sure he never gets anywhere near it. just from the outside chance that nikki haley could win and knock him out there, he was giving money and then he will give during the general election he had two chances to stop it. not a nikki haley supporter. >> no. he was open about it, too. >> i know. >> this is why diller was a supporter of chris christie. he liked chris christie because

he made the campaign about undermining former president trump. separately, the uaw is endorsing president biden. shawn fein announced that in washington, d.c. yesterday back in may, fain said they would hold endorsement over the electric vehicle issues were addressed. coming up, we have a lot more to tell you about on ibm. the latest to announce job cuts the day after the announcements from e-bay and waywfair and tiktok withi now look at the dow. here are stocks weighing on the dow futures right now. you are looking at boeing down 4% united health down 4%. salesforce and apple off slightly nike on the move up.

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welcome back to "squawk box. ibm and google announced cuts this month joining founder of greer consulting group. we have seen this wave of layoffs, jason i wonder if you think these are idiosyncratic, this is the beginning of a wave, whether you think that companies are just coming to the realization that they have been bloated a lot of people talked about the bloat during the pandemic. and then felt like they couldn't lay people off during that period how do you assess this >> i think that the market rewards layoffs. i also think the fact that there is -- there is a certain amount of bloat that happens, especially during covid, where companies overhired, but i think there is something else at play. our artificial intelligence is really at play here. when you look at the numbers of

people that are being restructured or being laid off, you're looking at white collar jobs but especially, i'll speak directly to my human resources folks, 28% of the layoffs that have happened have been in human resources. largely in the fact that artificial intelligence mehas me the automation of the jobs where you no longer need professionals. in the tech sector, they have been talking about it for years, now the fact you have more companies moving toward artificial intelligence and looking at the fact that as opposed to paying somebody $200,000, $300,000 a year to do the job, i can use artificial intelligence to do the job that they used to be able to do >> so, what does this portend -- do you think we'll start to -- if you look at the fortune 500, do you think we're going to see 10%, 20% layoffs in terms of total numbers of employees at these companies over the next, call it, two or three years?

what does that look like to you? >> probably 10% of workforce is going to be laid off especially the fact that, again, the market rewards it, but that's just sort of the trend we see ourselves going down >> are there certain -- we talked about also the protected jobs we still -- there are certain types of jobs oddly enough people thought that blue collar workers would lose their jobs first. now it may be the white collar workers. >> the white collar workers are in trouble let's talk about blue collar workers. i'll say this, i'll say it again. that's what we need to start investing more money into trade schools, we need to start sending students into trade schools because blue collar jobs are where it's at. white collar jobs on the other case, especially in middle management, sales, those are the jobs being eradicated because people don't want to continue to pay the salaries for things that either artificial intelligence can do or instead of hiring five people to do that job, i cancu it down to two i know they'll do the work of five people. >> how concerned are you about -- it was a whole period of time, you got to be an

engineer, everybody needs an engineering degree, everybody poured into engineering, now you're talking about a.i. effectively taking the engineering jobs now, you and others are saying, hey, everybody has -- everybody has to get reskilled so they can do a blue collar job if elon musk has his way, he'll have robots doing a lot of the jobs very soon and you're seeing more and more of this. in terms of trying to skate where the puck is or isn't, what would you really do? >> i would take a look at what the market is rewarding. right now the market is rewarding technical skills the market is rewarding technology, it is rewarding coding, it is rewarding those kinds of things. i think ultimately, though, people need to take a look at the fact that corporations would utilize your skill set when they need you, and they will get rid of your skill set hadwhen they don't need you invest in your side hustle whatever the case might be, if you want to create your own job, want to create your own

business, that's what you do if you're go going into the market thinking corporations are going to take care of you, they're not. there is no reason for them to do so. >> what do you think about a college degree >> i love college degree. >> you told the american public for last 50 years, if you get a college degree, it will help you immensely. there is a lot of people who feel like that was a myth. >> i'm speaking to you as somebody who has three college degrees. a bachelor and two masters degrees. i think college is still where it's at. you don't go to college to get a job, you go to college to learn how to think but on the other side of that, these colleges and universities need to stop charging $800,000 a year just so somebody can get a degree only for them to come out making $17.50 an hour. it doesn't work. but if we can retool the way that we look at college, we can retool the way colleges are basically doing this cash crunch on students that want to come to college, i think we could still utilize college for what it should be and that's to teach people how to think.

>> jason, appreciate your perspective on all of it little bit of a scary one right now. thank you. >> college, the california college system, university system right now, they're on strike so you're paying for your kids to be out there, living in a dorm, paying tuition, there is no classes, they have homework, they're teaching themselves. >> wow >> you got to be kidding me. they're in school for seven and a half months out of the year anyway and on strike right now >> similar during the pandemic, no one got any refunds for any of the stuff that happened now the same kids dealt with the shortages during the pandemic where they weren't actually taught who are now being -- sitting through strikes where they're not being taught. >> could be worse. you could be in classes at the ivy league schools, which would be even worse than, like, harvard. all right, hp enterprise set its cloud-based email system was hacked by the same russian group that recently hit microsoft. it said it was notified in

december that the hacker addressed -- accessed an extracted data from a small percentage of email accounts belonging to employees in the cybersecurity division and some business segments too so far hpe said the hack has not had a material impact on its financial health or its operations the stock, this morning, up by 6 cents. equilend said their systems went off line this week and it can take days to restore them. they provide security lending facilities the company's ngt platform handed transactions that were worth about $2.4 trillion just in the month of december alone they say that it is working with external cybersecurity firms and other advisers to assist with that investigation and restore service, but now people have to tell you within a few days of any sort of hacks coming up.

it is the new s.e.c. requirement on these things. a lot happening. >> a lot more hacks than we used to. >> at 7:00, a lot of stuff comcast coming up, several reports due in the next few minutes. we'll hear from american airlines, our parent company comcast, and we'll bring you an eranusive interview with amic airlines ceo robert isom "squawk box" will be right back. after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?" bacon and eggs 25/7. you're darn right. solar stocks are up 20% with the additional hour in the day.

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good morning earnings in the first read on fourth quarter gdp and focus for investors, we're going to break down the latest results and talk about what today's economic data could mean for the markets a number of issues on the table for congress including the regulatory landscape and a.i financial services chair patrick mchenry joins us live right here on set and tesla shares dropping on weak revenue and warnings of slower growth this year. are consumers and investors pumping on the brakes on the ev push we'll talk to an analyst as the

second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square an andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and joe kernen a lot going on a parade of earnings in a moment futures real quick before we get to our first earnings report of the morning. right now you're looking at the dow up 20 points nasdaq up about 36 points. the s&p 500 up about 5.5 points. >> first, in the 7:00 a.m. hour. >> yes comcast just out with quarterly results, not necessarily a -- these metrics aren't necessarily what you look at, but just the normal bottom line and top line were both above expectations 84 cents a share was 5 cents above expectations revenue came in at 31.25

billion, that was above estimates of 30.5. a few other highlights from the release, the media and studio revenues came in above expectations theme park sales roughly in line peacock, paid subscribers year over year jumped 50% and there were 3 million net ads in the first quarter, first time revenues over a billion dollars. company raising its dividend by 7% and boosting its buyback to $15 billion. it is a multifaceted company we already knew and it tickles me to death that -- for several reasons, obviously worldwide box office, number one for the first time that universal since 2015 on the strength of super mario and oppenheimer and good start, they're saying, for 2024, excited about kung fu panda. >> i'm excited about that too. >> another despicable me, and a

wicked some of the interesting things so total revenue up 2% but if you took the growth businesses, which is broadband business services, wireless, theme parks, studios and streaming, that revenue is up 8% so, maybe it is not accurate to say that it is tough to find growth growth there are parts of the company that are growing very nicely they use comcast does use the word consistent a couple of times. i guess that means flat. adjusted ebitda was consistent with the prior fourth quarter. there, as usual, are -- you do see video customers because the company doesn't chase low revenue customers. you're continuing to see, i guess you call it cord cutting, would you not? >> that would be the word. cord cutting however, i think this is the point that i would make, i think

you're looking at the stock up on the back of the news. you're seeing total number of customers come down and normally you say not a good thing if you keep -- >> customer relationships -- >> if you keep revenue flat or going up at the same time that's happening -- >> it proves their thesis they said they don't want unprofitable subscribers, don't want to carry them along you want the subscribers willing to pay for performance with broadband and things like that. >> that's the point. >> there is two main parts of the company now. connectivity and platforms that's what we're talking about. fourth quarter revenue consistent at $20.4 billion. basically flat but you can find -- can find pockets of real growth and peacock, according to the company, the fastest growing streaming entity and i guess -- >> brian roberts points out what happened with the nfl wild card game on peacock. >> i had to -- >> biggest night on the internet ever and i think it brought in a lot of new subscribers.

>> i had to become a peacock member $5.95 a month. >> the caveat is how much of those customers stay and what kind of churn do you see on the customers one thing they were doing, you see the $5.99 per month. they had a deal where they tried to lock you in for a year. >> i think i did do that all they need is one more game that i need to watch and then, you know -- >> worth it. >> if you spend 20 bucks on a movie, you can spend 5 bucks on a football game that you have for -- that you have for everything else. i might find something else, watch some "seinfeld" or something. >> stock up by over 4% 45.60 last trade. >> that is interesting because you never know -- there is little things in there that people are, you know, sometimes you're looking for things that -- because it is tough. some parts of the business are definitely tough >> meantime, let's talk about

american airlines. releasing quarterly results. want to get straight over to phil lebeau. he's got those numbers for us. >> this is a beat on the top and bottom lines for american airlines, earning 29 cents a share, well above the street estimate of 10 cents a share revenue coming in better than expected at $13.06 billion the numbers within the numbers in the fourth quarter, revenue down 6.4%. cost per seat mile excluding fuel up 4.2% with capacity increasing 5.8%. now to the guidance, the first quarter, the company is expecting a loss in the range of 15 to 35 cents a share the consensus is for a loss of 17 cents a share revenue per seat mile will be negative 3.35% capacity expected to grow 6.5 to 8.5% for 2024, the earnings per share guidance is 225 to 325 the street is expecting 225. so they're a little bit above where the street is in terms of a full year profit with total

revenue for the year flat to negative 3%. don't forget, we'll be talking with robert isom, ceo of american airlines coming up in about 25 minutes, guys american beating on the top and the bottom line. we'll send it back you to. >> thank you for that. we'll see you in just a little bit, we'll talk more numbers and maybe a little boeing as well. thanks. fourth quarter gdp is going to be released in less than 90 minutes. we want to talk markets ahead of that number. ron lenyada is here with us today. ron, welcome to the set. >> thank you >> let's just talk broadly about the markets, what we have seen the beginning part of this year. we did see both the s&p 500 and the nasdaq 100 setting record levels once again yesterday. it has been quite a tear for the markets after a little bit of a slow start where people thought maybe we're not going to see what we saw the last couple months of the year what do you anticipate for this year, what to you think you're hearing from earnings? >> universia doesn't take a

position on evaluation and markets. we include pensions, foundations, high net worth, so, you know, we're staying ready to protect against severe stock market crashes and we found that, you know, this is an idea that was -- goes back to nasem talib, equity tail risk hedging what we found is most investors, they love the equity risk premium, but they hate equity drawdown they tend to overdiversify their portfolio. particularly with bonds. 60/40 is a paradigm. it is easy to sort of criticize 60/40 now in the context of what happened in 2022 our contention is that diversifiers really don't give you a focused protection. >> go all in on equities is your -- >> we're not advocating that, but let me get -- cite an example with pension funds

in the u.s. public pension funds have this funding problem. the 100 largest state pension funds have about 1.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities and my contention and my experience as i worked is there is not taking enough risk basically. trying to overprotect against equity drawdown. what happens with bonds as a protection against equity drawdown, perfect example with the global financial crisis, s&p down 55% you were down 30%. the problem is you never really monetized that protection. a lot of the protection of a 60/40 is you're not investing in the stock. >> you're tricking yourself into thinking you're protecting -- >> maybe you can sleep well at night, but a pension fund is supposed to be a long-term investor with cumulative wealth. >> that's why warren buffett said put it in the s&p 500. >> we don't advocate that.

there are reasons investors have different horizons, different tolerances for risk, different return objectives and may want to diversify, but tail hedging, which is what universe specializes, actually gives you an opportunity to take advantage of drawdown. we have a strategy that pays off during severe market crashes. >> how does it work? >> it is based on derivatives and i can't really go into the details of -- >> that's a little scary, though derivatives, trust me. >> so, if you want to learn more about it, mark has written two interesting books on his contrarian way of managing equity risk. >> what are your returns over time >> safe haven and the dow of capital. >> how are your returns? >> i can't speak directly about returns, but anecdotally, in 2020, universia had very good strong returns, some of that information leaked out >> in 2020, but over time, i guess, how does this work over

time >> well -- >> it seems like you take a lot of risk too. >> the criticism of something like tail hedging is basically that using options to hedge risk is costly. >> using derivatives that can blow up in your -- >> the problem with that argument is that other diversifiers are even more costly so the s&p 500 for the last 100 years has had a 10% annual average return so the more treasuries you put in your portfolio, the more you're going to dilute your -- >> water down your returns. >> you're diluting your risk, you're not focusing on excising your risk. so, a tail hedge strategy is going to infuse your portfolio with liquidity at the time you need it the most and with that liquidity you can take advantage of the drawdown and an opportunity to buy stocks cheaply with ordinary diversification, the best you do is you rebalance back to target weight and you never really, you know, in the heat of the moment,

you don't know -- you're not going to say, well, i'm going to move from 60/40 to 100% equity it never happens people sit on those allocations and then the long run, they suffer this performance drag because of this overallocation to bonds. >> coming up, patrick mchenry will join us after the break to discuss the d.c. agenda. as we head to break, let's check on crypto this morning bitcoin is up a little back over 40,000 we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. blackstone reportedly -- reporting its quarterly earnings moments ago. earnings up $1.11 a share, better than estimates of 95 cents. total segment revenue at $2.45

billion. that's roughly inline with estimates. blackstone declaring a dividend of 94 cents a share. looking at that stock up 2% on the back of that news. the president and coo jon gray will join us at the 8:00 hour. we'll talk about the economy, what he is seeing given the large portfolio and real estate, something he has a genuine expertise in next guest was interim speaker following the ousting of former speaker kevin mccarthy and he announced he won't be seeking re-election in 2024. joining us now, congressman patrick mchenry, chairman of the house financial services committee. you got a ways to go, so -- >> i got another year. >> you still got constituents that you need to look out for their interests. what does that entail in terms of crypto? what does that mean you need to do >> look, when the house basically attempted to commit political suicide, republicans in the house tried to commit political suicide in the fall, it gummed up three or four

months of house floor action so, i have major policies in capital formation, data privacy and crypto we haven't moved across the house floor and i intend to get those moved across the house floor this year. we can still do big deals. we can still do big deals, even amidst the longest presidential campaign, general election campaign in american history we can still get these things done and build consensus i think there is a need for market structure on crypto >> the recent etf and watching the s.e.c., just short of kicking and screaming, really, after the court said one thing and that's no way to run a railroad, is it? >> no. it is ineptitude, they went kicking and screaming after the courts demanded they take this action now you have more legitimate money coming in, flowing in to crypto some structure being provided to new asset class that, you know,

has its problems and needs some clarity under federal law to remedy it. but what you see out of gensler, you have this backdrop of regulatory policy for this administration, problematic for them, and they're having a hard time rebranding what their economic policy is to the point where they're sending administration officials out to try to convince the american people that what they feel they should not actually feel and that's a tough thing in a political year >> i watch -- we can take this interview wherever you want to go, crazy eight, and i don't know what speaker johnson's future looks like, i don't know how we fund ukraine and the border and there is all kinds of -- i don't know what you call it, people are -- there is histrionics and back flips trying to get this done. i will -- they do stick to a message, i'm talking about that

democrats, with this immigration, watch the president's press secretary say it is republicans' fault because of the supplemental. we're going to hire a few more border people. it has nothing to do with president biden and i washed chris koonce say the same thing yesterday, that republicans -- it is all republicans' fault the, the porous border because the senate didn't take up -- did not vote on that supplemental -- >> that's two questions. let's start with the border. that's a powerful issue. it is a powerful issue for the american people. those border states and interior states are experiencing -- this city is experiencing something that under the trump administration they wouldn't have talked the same game. and so, the politics have shifted because of the experience is different for the american people, and this is a political problem for the democrat president running for election so they have come to the table on border policy now, we don't know the full contents what they're talking about in the senate, so i'm not

going to prejudge that. >> do they want to close the border or process more people. did you see how many getaways there are? >> they think it is dollars. they withheld the dollars during the trump administration and that was not what stopped the flow at the southern border. it was the remaining mexico policy, the powerful driver and then saying, if you come here, we'll send you back and that's presidential leadership, and a change of policy, it is not really a large dollars that we're talking about here that's where the democrats are off kilter. >> for ukraine, is this -- >> not dollars but just the idea of the message you're sending out. >> what i'm hearing from the senate, is they don't still get that message this is not 50 complex ideas it is two or three policy changes and small amount of dollars because there is a humanitarian piece to this that is real. you have human lives at stake. but we have a moment right now

where congressional leaders need to understand you should not fear the deal. you should get as much good in public policy as your time gets. without fear of repercussions. >> logical people can find -- >> 30 years on immigration policy, of that very dynamic. >> unless i'm misunderstanding, the report this morning, punch bowl, jake sherman, suggesting that mitch mcconnell made some comments that effectively said we need to -- we need -- he was in for ukraine and border and everything together. and effectively he's saying we need to separate it out, former president trump is going to be our candidate, he wants to make immigration the central issue and therefore -- >> i don't think he wants much to get done on this front. >> right he wants nothing -- no, that's the point. it is a political -- it becomes a political -- if true, if i'm reading the sherman story properly and understanding what mitch mcconnell is saying,

effectively suggests that politics is playing a role in this -- at a level that is -- >> even more than in the past? >> there is gambling in this casino come on. there is policy. >> no one should be happy about that. >> no. that is a couple of mismanagement in november and december led to these ramifications in january to march. and so we should have gotten this done before christmas this should have been done before christmas the dynamics were the same, the equities were the same, the politics a little bit better before coming up on super tuesday. what we saw in new hampshire and iowa so, getting it done beforehand was better the political dynamics of the push and pull of policy still the same so, take the deal fast, get it over with, move on, and we can go fight it out like people normally fight it out. the key issue here, though, is are we going to take a win, a policy win, that republicans

have sought, for 20 years, to make things better the democrats are saying we can't be very specific, so we need to hand this over to the executive branch to implement fully. well, that's an implementation question for president biden or president trump. and candidate trump should see that he can use those executive functions and do a better job at the southern border than biden and you can still have the fight about immigration and the american people don't believe that biden is tough on immigration and they believe trump is tough on immigration. so the issue doesn't change. >> can i ask you, are you a supporter of president trump if in fact he becomes the nominee >> i haven't played in this zone i had a pretty complicated 2023. >> i know. >> and i'm -- and i'm but what we just saw -- >> you made comments after january 6th, if you go back and rewind the tape -- >> i stand by every word i said. and i -- but i'm a republican, i want republicans to win. so it is a complex thing it is a difficult thing.

and i think the rule of law and the constitutional restraints of our society are massively important, more important than who gets elected and that's where i'm going to uphold, no matter what, but, you know, he is the de facto nominee. we are now in a long general election with the american people having -- >> isn't there some part of you that says you could vote independently of what has become a -- by the way, a cult on both sides? the idea that people say whoever the nominee is on my side, like a religion, whoever the nominee is on my side -- by the way, i think there are democrats who are unhappy with president biden. feel that president biden is too old and -- >> do you disagree it is a binary choice? >> do i disagree it is a binary -- >> yes. >> it is binary, but i think that there is -- >> biden or trump.

>> i understand. no, no, what i'm saying is i think there are -- here is the distinction. the distinction i'm trying to make is you have a number of frankly high profile democrats who are now trying to support nikki haley. i don't -- we don't know whether she has a chance of becoming the nominee, but -- >> she's down 30 points in south carolina. >> there is some sense of independent thought beyond the sort of religious cultish approach to whoever is in the seat gets the choice that's what i'm saying. >> democrats should start first and not vote for someone who four years from now is not going to know with kamala harris waiting -- why don't you start first and voting your conscience and -- don't take the binary choice pick somebody else >> this is like my two dads fighting over me back to this point, what has biden done to show he's going to moderate candidate biden, senator biden,

very different than the governing functions of this administration they went to the progressive left on spending to ameliorate bernie sanders, to progressive left on regulatory policy and economic policy, regulatory policy to assuage the progressive left what the hell is that -- what is in there for a reasonable person to look at the performance here is terrible economic performance is terrible the spending is way too high >> i think the question -- i think -- look, i think there is a lot of things that you can be critical about in fairness about this administration. no question. no question. having said that, i think there is a question you raised it yourself after january 6th, as did so many other republicans, as did frankly virtually every single major name that worked in that trump administration -- >> make the point, you think trump is worse than biden. on the other side, they think biden is worse than trump. >> i'm allowed to ask the question. >> it is your opinion.

i'm not happy about it either. but when you say -- if it is raining, it is a fact and trump lies more than biden. >> let me ask you about something else, gettin to the year you had in 2023, the speaker right now, how much support does he have does he get in trouble if he cuts a deal down the road? does he wind up in the same position are you going to be back in the position of having to -- >> the speaker has the unanimous support of the republicans on the house floor. he should govern and go. he should not fear the deal. he should go he should not delay because people are yelling at him and some are, that's their negotiating tactic, that's been the way a number of these policymakers tried to achieve their goals ineffectually. so he should not fear the deal the slowing down, we're in the toughest piece of legislating,

political legislating, second toughest, i would say, after negotiating the debt ceiling, the frame for how government spending is going to work, go cut the deal, get it done. far better to get it done yesterday than tomorrow. and the politics get better for house republicans and republicans generally once you're done with that. >> you want strong leadership. >> yes go don't fear the deal. and the faster you can get done with that, the faster we receive washington and the focus becomes on this -- what i would say is a binary choice, economic performance of this administration, national security, domestic security situation, and those are going to be the three major debates of this political year. and then guys like me can come on and talk about boring policy, early, early in the show, and more interesting people late in the show >> i can make an argument, i look at the 40-year career of biden inc., we're the only asset is joe biden it is just a matter of -- it is

not one is much worse than the other. they're both bad. >> i understand that >> for policies, though, andrew, when i watch him talk -- >> look, i think there is real questions to be asked about all the things you're saying. >> policies. policies. >> and policy questions. but i wonder about what you think -- >> existential threat to the country. >> people who have worked for him, whether they be generals, whether they be his chief of staff, who think he's a danger to the country and i -- that -- i haven't heard people say that for whatever you hate about president biden, i don't hear people say the man is a danger to the country >> you don't hear people that support trump saying he's a danger, you don't hear people -- >> would you like to say he's a danger to the country? >> no, i'm not going to say it i think -- i'm hoping there is enough checks and balances that our forefathers figured out -- how do you think decent republicans support him? they're stupid or treasonous how come they don't have your opinion?

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>> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. according to babycenter, what were the top baby names in 2023? the answer, noah and olivia. noah passed liam as the top boy name, while olivia was a repeat of 2022. welcome back to "squawk box. i'm dominic chu with a look at some of the premarket earnings moves in these particular stocks we'll start off with the news from our cnbc and nbc universal parent company comcast, up 2.5%, 75,000 shares of trading volume. reporting quarterly profits of revenues of both topped estimates. comcast helped by the loss of internet customers and fewer video subscriber losses than forecast comcast will raise the dividend by 7% with annualized payments of $1.24 per share one of the biggest decliners is

humana, down roughly 13%, around 70,000 shares of volume. the health insurance and services provider reporting a surprise loss by the quarter on slightly better than expected revenues, not yet fully clear whether the loss is comparable to estimates, but the full year profit guidance fell well short of expectations. we'll end with airline reports here, southwest airlines up north of 1%, just about 1.5% or so southwest added that it was not planning on taking as many deliveries of boeing 737 max model jets this year as it had thought it did in the past it is also removed the 737 max 7 model from its fleet plans for later on this year as well that's the state of the skies. we'll get more on that with american airlines ceo bob isom joins phil lebeau after the quk x"etnsft "sawbo rur aer this.

welcome back to "squawk box. a big day for airline earnings,

including from american airlines, which reported a beat on the top and bottom line let's bring in robert isom, ceo of american airlines, joining us from the company's headquarters in fort worth, texas robert, i'm looking at your results in the fourth quarter and your guidance for first quarter, what stands out to you in terms of the return of not only corporate travel, but the demand that seems to be out there, consistently, as you look into this year >> good morning, phil. look, we're really pleased with the results. we closed out the year strong. and i've been telling you for a while that at american, we're focused on reliability, profitability, and really strengthening our balance sheet. we have done all those and i got to give a big shoutout to our team look, as we go into the first quarter, we see demand strong. i think that we're going to have a really busy first and second quarter, and, look, i think the time to buy is right now for travel it is going to be a busy year. >> we talked about leisure at

great length is corporate travel in your opinion, is it back to where it was in 2019? >> no, it is not not quite yet. i think that represents upside, especially as people return to the office so, you know, we're about at 90%. but don't forget, travel patterns have changed too. we talked about business and leisure, combining as we take a look at the future, we think that's going to be something beneficial as people return to the office, as the economy gets stronger, and also it is just, look, people want to travel there is a tremendous demand for it i see strength in corporate. >> robert, i want to ask you about boeing you saw the news that the faa is going to be halting any expansion of max production, which clearly will have an implication in terms of delivery schedules. you've got, what, 81 max 8s on order. you have 59 maxs will you have to adjust your schedule in terms of when you expect to receive those max

airplanes? >> so, first off, look, we have 20 max 8s that are planned for delivery this year and on that front, you know, they're already in production. so i don't think that we'll be impacted by this but, look, you know, in regard to boeing, we need them to produce a quality product every time we need them to hold true to their delivery expectations. and we need everybody at boeing getting their act >> does this make you think twice about the business you do with them? >> look, boeing has been a partner for a long time. we have a lot of boeing aircraft we fly them reliably every single day i have great confidence in the product as we go forward but, look, we don't need the distraction. it has to be quality all the time american over the last -- since the merger, we have taken more new aircraft than any airline really in history. we have a great team of 15,000

pilots, 12,000 mechanics, and we do our inspections of those aircraft as well every time we take one i have great confidence in what we put in the skies. when it comes to boeing, they have to get their act together, they have to produce a quality product, it is just essential. >> i don't mean to belabor this, you do your own inspections when you receive the aircraft are you doubling down your due diligence? is there anything you're changing now, you say, look, we always looked at these planes and make sure they're as safe as possible, maybe we need to go even further >> of course we're always taking a look we have a safety management system that we worked on with the faa. and in that, we try to identify anything that may be an issue or a cause for further investigation. and that even holds true when it comes to taking aircraft deliveries we will be working very closely. not only with boeing, but with airbus we need all of our partners, the

oems of engines and air frames and all components to do their job. and that's producing a quality product. it is not acceptable we have 120,000 team members that are doing a fantastic job of running the most reliable airline in the business over the last 18 months and we don't need the distraction. >> robert, we got to wrap this, after a very busy day for us one word answer for you, how busy will transatlantic travel be this summer >> it is going to be a busy summer busier than last year. and we're set and ready to go. we got a great london franchise and partnership network, come fly american >> all right thank you. robert isom, the ceo of american airlines joining us from the company's headquarters in fort worth. thank you very much. guys, back to you. busy, busy morning we got bob jordan coming up on "squawk on the street," we'll talk to him about the max delivery plans after they reported their earnings today.

back to you. >> phil, thanks. coming up, netflix making waves after announcing a deal to bring wwe raw to the platform. and reporting results, pushed the stock higher has the company pinned the competition? that's a good one. jon fortt will weigh in. the futures, they have been kind of all over the place now they're back just barely in the green on the dow and the s&p. we'll be right back.

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netflix stocks surged this week after the company's subscriber growth beat expectations, even as traditional media rivals scale back some of their digital ambitions. does this mean netflix won the streaming wars jon fortt is here to weigh in. hey, jon. >> yep the streaming wr ing wars are o netflix won. it is like the republican primary. obvious how it is going to end just a question of how quickly the others throw in the towel. netflix gained 13 million subscribers in q4, 9 million in q3 for disney plus and nbc's peacock grew 3 million in q4, a good number. streaming efforts from

traditional media giants are smaller, growing slower and losing money netflix is big, profitable and patient. you got tech giants apple, amazon and alphabet, whose streaming models aren't designed to make money on their own add it all up and streaming as we know it is a fight traditional media can't win. if they keep funding it, they're going to drain resources from profitable shrinking core businesses, resources that could be used on other ways to reinvent the model the problem for traditional media. netflix and the tech giants just had better modern distribution systems and healthier access to capital. so, for the foreseeable future, they'll be able to spend more on third party streamincontent. better off finding a new fight traditional media will where they play to their strengths because this one is over net netflix, technical knockout. >> who wants to be stuck with just legacy? more and more people, barry diller saying legacy media is not gone there is some stuff left there

but the future has got to be more skewed toward streaming, does it not? >> i did mention that peacock number >> you did you said it was a pretty good number >> a great number. >> altogether, the streaming wars aren't over netflix hasn't won in the september quarter, netflix pulled in, you know, $8.5 billion in revenue, up 8% youtube did just shy of $8 billion, up 11%. pretty close i know, you're probably thinking youtube isn't streaming, but it is it is about creators and monetized through ads. netflix was about movies and tv shows and monetized through subscriptions. now the lines are blurred. mr.beast is nearing $100 million deal for a streaming show on amazon prime, according to puck. shannon sharp, whose roots in the subscription driven realm of the nfl is reaching new heights with his club shay shay youtube episodes hitting 52 million streams in three weeks so the streaming wars don't

exist. the prize in media say single log in direct relationship with the customers where companies are smarter about what to make and who sees it. what amazon, apple, google and netflix have in common is they have core data platforms that drive the business model and help them understand the customer they don't have streaming side projects that's the difference. >> so how did traditional media companies compete with netflix and win? >> i think it is going to be tough. but here's the thing that concerns me when i look at the traditional media companies. there is no single view of the customer you have streaming over here, other stuff over here, they're not able to look at the data broadly and make quicker compounding decisions. >> privacy laws don't allow them to. >> well, how do you -- >> i wonder if those laws need to be changed too. >> can you figure it out and kind of circle the wagons? we'll see. >> i could make it -- diversity

is nice sometimes, i think, in terms of assets. >> really? oh, in terms of assets >> in terms of assets. some people say it is great that netflix only has streaming i don't know if you can do streaming well, and still have some of these other things for when, you know -- nothing's ever firing in all cylinders. companies in the past one thing takes over, know slows down. i don't know if the jury, if that could be another future on the other hand is streaming definitely the best, the future nothing else do an "on the other hand" on that >> of course always a little more. >> what's the future sitting in front of a big screen and watching things. >> also future nuder wills and "on the other hand" newsletter using a qr code popping up on the screen right there or just type in cnbc.com/otoh.

both arguments, you can share. >> the right way always have trouble with that. >> and just the opposite. >> the opposite of what it's supposed to be. >> which is just like the segment. >> becky's over there. right? becky over there >> no. >> you can see where i many a. >> i know. coming up next -- expectations -- a morning of weaker sales growth isth month discussing results after the break with an analyst. "squawk box" returns then.bank a . intuit quickbooks. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium.

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welcome back, everybody. tesla shares moving lower this morning. fourth quarter revenue and profits fell short and the company says vehicle volume growth in their words notably lower in 2024 compared to last year joining us now is colin langan, wells faro equity an legitimate. does this come as a surprise because the street is selling the stock down today >> i think yesterday we got a bit of a trifecta of bad news.

deliveries not as surprising. kind of could see demand is slow slowing a bit. margin commentary a bit of a surprise talked about sort of hitting a natural curve limit on bringing costs down a big problem, because they just cut pricing in china and europe a couple weeks ago can't bring costs down, pricing hits the margin right away feeling like margins will come down next year likely, and away from the comment trying to get a 25% stake, raising concerns about dilution if you're a shareholder here. >> what do you think in terms of whether it's more important to have -- to not get diluted or to have elon musk there developing a.i. at tesla how would you come down on that? >> the stock trades where it does, because you're not paying for the core auto business you're paying for future ideas that is elon musk. pretty frustrating i think as a shareholder to have to dilutious

to keep him around. >> a holds on the stock now. in terms of other big automakers like them less ford and gm, a sell on both of those. why? >> the traditional -- the industry is challenged now even what tesla is talking about. demand slowing, pricing probably coming down. those affects affect the detroit three as well. haven't seen it as much is all pricing headwinds. we have capacity grown way too much, partly because of all the capacity tesla added we have ev regulation esherb iso the traditional guys figure out how to maintain selling evers. >> bleak outlook what would change onmind anything happening over the course of the year to look at it again? >> valuation always matters. obviously. we'll see how the politics shake out. i think if you have a republican there's more likely some of the

aggressive epa legislation is pushed occupy. still a problem through 2026 but less bleak beyond that 2026 rowel rules are -- >> so the big three can fall back on selling some suvs, regular internal combustion suvs and pare back on evs tesla has -- that's it they can't fall back on a legacy business they've only got -- always knew that but never thought that could be a positive for the big three? that they can always sell, do what they do best? >> not really positive >> they have to sell more evs. regulations ease, sell less. >> you mean government standards? in other words in other words, not demand >> epa is different. not for demand structural problem ev demand moderates. >> that what happens when, in

planned economies, right >> they have regulations that are going to force them to sell more evs consumers aren't there yet. >> colin, thank you. "squawk box" will be right back. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. presentation looks great. thanks. voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. so you can reach today's financial goals. that one. and look forward to a more confident future. that is one dynamic duo. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. every day, more dog people, and more vets are deciding it's time for a fresh approach to pet food. they're quitting the kibble. and kicking the cans. and feeding their dogs dog food that's actually well, food. developed with vets. made from real meat and veggies. portioned for your dog. and delivered right to your door.

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good morning another big earnings day kicking off. two major airlines our parent company comcast and private equity blackstone. and tesla down ev make maker warning of a slowdown this year we're 30 minutes away from a brand new read on the economy. bringing you the first look at fourth quarter gdp the final hour of "squawk box" beginning right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin the last hour of thursday might be, that might be "the" best, the best time, the nader don't you think?

that might be it because tomorrow's friday. >> way too close to monday. >> too close to monday we're not done but we're almost -- but we love being here, with you, all of us together you know equity futures at this hour are, all over the map this morning, and the nasdaq surprisingly has been the strongest, even though tesla, obviously is down boeing weighing on the dow, down 44 points. others going higher because beaual down quite a bit and you see the s&p, and basically, treasuries 4.17, backed up a little in yield. i don't know whether that's, just asked what's more like a 3% gdp or a 1% gdp or getting close tuesday -- tuesday expected. i was thinking -- >> a little hotter. >> hotter than colder. >> i would think hotter. some day it's going to be, why didn't we see this coming?

economy's slowing. we're so used to it. we're so used to everything being, wow, still strong but i was thinking three, too. three as well. we'll see. big morning for earnings media giant parent company comcast reporting earnings in revenue above forecast media studio revenues above estimates and streaming peacock paid subscriptions jumped 50% year over year and raising dividend increasing stock buyback program tos $15 billion. you can see the stock up by 1.8% american airlines reporting fourth quarter prompt and revenue both above the street's expectations first quarter, americans projected loss range mostly worse than the consensus but its full-year guidance above estimates. ceo robert iceham payinging in last hour on the current situation in boeing and here's what he had to say. >> in regard to boeing we need

them to produce a quality product every time to hold true to their it delivery expectations and need everybody at boeing getting their act together >> also look at shares of southwest airlines that company beating fourth quarter estimates on both top and bottom lines and saying that for 2024, it is expecting double-digit operating revenue growth you see the stock up by 1.5% don't miss an exclusive interview with bob jordan next hour on "squawk on the street." and another big earnings report coming out. private equity giant beating expectations in the fourth quarter. total segment roughly in line with estimates declares 94 cents a share. joining us, jon gray of course, blackstone's president and chief operating officer. good morning to you. >> good morning, andrew. we had a really great quarter. we're excited. >> by the way, stock is up about 3% talk about the quarter and i want to get into what you're

seeing in terms of the portfolio and what it means for the larger economy and maybe talk real estate as well in terms what drove the quarter in these last three months >> well, what happened here was we had our best quarter in terms of distributable earnings in terms of investment activity and fund-raising i think the key thing is, we're really facing a regime change for the economy. for the last two years we've been enduring this high cost of capital as the fed tightened in order to drive down inflation. now inflation is coming down, and we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. rates are going to be coming down in '24, and you begin to get this virtuous cycle. you begin to see m & a activity pick up. equity markets open up debt cost of capital comes down and all of that is good for our business and more importantly good for our investors so we're excited about that

reacceleration but very proud of the resilience we showed during the tough last two years the way we delivered for our customers, particularly performance. >> in terms of performance, let me ask you this. as you said, you've got, you know, best in-flows, you know, a remarkable thing look at third best in history. at some point do you think that size is the enemy of performance? >> we really haven't found that over time. the key for us in private markets is the ability to do things at scale. the ability to show up and to do very large transactions. you know, we announced big deals in real estate in this last quarter. $17 billion mortgage portfolio, partnership with the fdic on signature. partnered with other firms on a $14 billion private privatization of a european company adavinta

write large checks to help borrowers. the availability of that. also information the ability to see what's happening around the world what's happening in different markets, different sectors all of that is really helpful. that's a key competitive advantage. for us, we think size is a driving force for our performance. we're going to continue with that as we grow. >> so when you say that you're going to see more transactions, that you see m & a activity accelerating's is that accelerating because steve schwartzman your founder talked about this could be more distress sales that could create some of this it's not going to necessarily come from strength, per se right? >> i think it's a combination. in some sectors like real estate, there is some more pressure you'll see it there. in certain sectors there are

needs for liquidity, pension funds may want to sell interests in funds part is a natural m & a cycle. look back over time, we've had a two-year decline of about 50% in m & a volumes falling. a similar dynamic, '08, '09, similar in the early '90s. people owned businesses, want to el is, companies want to sell, private equity firms who rawant liquidity for investors. like a floatation device below the water, they want to come up. as this gets better you see m & a return some distressed but also the natural order of things. >> what's the house view where things will be in the fed over the next year and what does it mean for your ability to leverage investments >> i think the fed has a lot of air cover to cover rates, to lower rates. we've seen inflation coming down

in our portfolio we see it in input costs we see wage pressures easing we pull our ceos much easier to hire today than it was 12 months ago, 24 months ago. we see pressure on rent. so the cpi data, we think, will continue to be positive for the fed. i think what goes the other way is concerns about re-igniting inflation. what happened in the 1970s so i think they will cut rates will it be as fast or as deep as the market would hope? maybe not,ing but the direction of travel, i think, on short rates is lower and that's very positive for markets >> what does that mean, though, for valuations you know, the private market oftentimes or all the time off of the public markets? some say sometimes it will lag. >> yeah. i think when you lower the cost of capital, that's helpful, and it's not just helpful in terms of discount rates. it provides confidence to the

market you've seen spreads come in across the fixed income universe here over the last 90 days as markets anticipate looser financial conditions, it adds the buoyancy, supportive of valuations it doesn't mean in some sectors things haven't moved pretty quickly's i would say overall, i would say a lower rate environment is helpful for the economy. the only thing that cuts the other way is if the fed stays tight, you know, for an extended period of time here. we could see more of a sequential slowdown. what we've seen in our businesses certainly in the fourth quarter was strong revenue growth 7% we've seen limited defaults across our companies in terms of borrowers we're lending to fed stays tight wet we get a slowdown overall a positive for val valuations where we sit. >> am i misreading this? sounds like you think the next

12 months will be an opportunity to make acquisitions but not a big opportunity to exit investments? >> i think generally what happens is, there's decline, there's a bottoming in terms of expectations, and then things start to move. it's in that period of time of uncertainty when people are still waiting for the all-clear sign you definitely feel the need to lean in. you know you mentioned real estate at the top of the hour. there we think we're seeing a bottoming in terms of values there will still be plenty of troubled investments in the market made in a higher-rate environment. there are sectors like apartments where there's probably too much supply, but the negativity's going to persist and yet the same time, as i said, cost of capital has come down. we're seeing a lot less new construction particularly in some of our biggest areas, like logistics. so we want to lean in. last week we announced a privatization of a large

residential company in canada and the u.s. i would say, yes we think it's a good period to deploy capital we did six deals in private equity in the last, really, six weeks of the year. we're learneding more. deploying more in real estate and hopefully will find realizations as well, but getting those assets sort of on the conveyor belt takes time there's a process to that. it does feel like a good moment to think about investing capital. >> jon gray, thank you. >> see you soon. senator richard blumenthal among the lawmakers looking for answers from the faa in the aftermath of that accident we saw involving a boeing jet the senator's going to join us next stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

welcome back welcome to "squawk box." breaking news from the european

central bank leaving interest rates unchanged. aside from headline inflation, declining trends and yunner lying inflation continued and passed interest rate increases transmitted into conditions. relatively happy where they are now. they consider interest rates at levels that maintain, keeping that language, for sufficiently long period of time, will make a substantial contribution to the goal of reducing inflation remember that there's discussion about whether or not the ecb might cut in the summer. about, 100, or before this announcement, 130 basis points of cuts built in to ecb futures for this year. so we'll see if that changes one other line here. they say that ensuring the policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels. keeping that relatively hawkish

language there, guys i don't think that lagarde is willing to give it up just yet pressure, and just like in the united states, guys, pushback from officials when it comes to the outlook by the market for rate cuts. although lagarde has said it's possible they might cut rates in june we'll leave it there maintaining the hawkish outlook. very much like the united states trying to put off the market expectations for rate cuts, but keeping that hope alive. becky? >> steve, thank you very much. see you a little later. meantime, a letter to the faa this morning, our next guest says the alaska airlines door plug blowout earlier in the month underscores the agency to update rules on cockpit voice recorders. a brought rule planes have 25 hours recording time instead of a few they have at this point in most cases

for more we welcome connecticut senator blumenthal for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> before we get to the letter your thoughts. you've been pretty vocal about what's happened with the boeing situation, alaska airlines and the door plug blowing out. do you think we're doing enough to oversee all of this at the faa? >> you know, the letter i'm writing calling for the 25-hour minimum requirement for the voice recorder is only one example of recommendations made by the ntsb and other safety advocates that have not been followed so the answer to your question is very simply, no we're not doing enough about airline safety, and i have great reservations about putting these planes back in the air so long as there is not sufficient

oversight, independent scrutiny, over the inspection process that the faa has said it will implement and other aspects of airline production at boeing we've relied on the fox to guard the hen house all too long. >> meaning you wouldn't let these planes back into place, even though the airlines that purchased those planes have kind of gone over this with a fine-tooth comb, seems a the this point seems we might see some of those planes back in the yeah for alaska airlines early and tomorrow and by sunday for united not enough they've gone over all of these things, too >> we need to be assured the traveling public needs that guarantee, that even the airlines have been overseen by the faa, and we need to know, also, from the ntsb, which is investigating, what the cause was. i want to hear from the ntsb that it feels that there's enough inspection. because those four bolts that

reportedly were either missing or defecttively reinstalled on that panel that blew out, they may just be the tip of the iceberg in terms of the safety problem. so i want to know more of the details of the inspection conducted, the ntsb preliminary review what the cause was and other assurances there will be independent oversight. >> talk about this letter that you are sending to the faa today. it very specifically looks at the cockpit voice recorder what's the problem with the system we don't have anything from this particular system because it was overwritten by the time they went back to look at it? >> absolutely right. this voice recorder was overwritten. we have no details what the pilots were saying at the time that the panel blew out and an extraordinary occurrence with absolutely extraordinary good luck they weren't at a higher

altitude, which could have caused a catastrophe, and we have no recording, because it was overwritten within the two hours. there should be a 25-hour minimum recording. now, the faa is considering a rule that would impose that requirement, but only for new aircraft that rule should be extended to existing aircraft as well. in other words, they should be retrofitted with cockpit voice recorders that have a minimum 25-hour rule. >> i mean, at this, this plane didn't go back up. why overwritten? i don't understand that. >> that is the key question. and, again, that recommendation, which seems common sense, doesn't it it's only one of about 40 that have not been implemented. 40 recommendations for airline safety from the ntsb and other safety advocates that still are not implemented. i think that goes to the real

system that we have right now for airline safety, which has proved inadequate again and again. >> so your point is the ntsb makes recommendations. the manufacturers or airlines can choose to disregard them, if they want to we're a still winding up with situations like this >> it's not to only the airlines and the manufacturers that disregard but boeing also the faa. and that's part of the problem, that the agency that is supposed to safeguard safety is, in fact, ignoring or disregarding the recommendations from the safety advocate. >> the street is looking at what the faa is requiring of boeing at this point to say that you are not going to be allowed to increase manufacturing until we get in there and take a duper loo look at that they think that's strong from the faa. you disagree >> i agree strong action to

limit production lines to 30 planes and to stop the implementation of new production line i think those are steps in absolutely the right direction, and boeing itself is having in effect a stenddown for quality at the facility where the "seattle times" reported reinsulation was faulty. i think there is growing appreciation for the need to increase the credibility and trust in oversight, but it's only part of what needs to be done we're moving in the right direction but not yet there. >> quickly, the online child exploitation hearing that's coming up on the 31st of this month. i mean, i know you have the kids online safety act out there. i can't believe that something like this has not been passed in the past something like this hasn't been passed in the past bipartisan legislation between you and marsha blackburn

i don't get it i've dug into it looks like far right and far left stopped and shut this down. can you get something together and do something about this? >> you know, you are so absolutely right number one, as to the urgency of the need for protecting kids online number two, the bipartisan support, nearly half the united states senate, has co-sponsored this measure, evenly divided republican and democrat, to provide tools to parents and kids to disconnect from those algorithms driving bullying and eating disorders and even suicidal thoughts to children. online without any accountability, and to impose that kind of transparency and accountability makes absolutely common sense. it i'm very hopeful because leadership on both sides of the aisle supports this idea, that we will make progress this session in the united states congress and this hearing on wednesday, i think, is going to

be a bombshell because the major leaders of the tech titans will be there, and we're going to ask tough questions with documents that we have to show that they have disregarded their responsibility to protect children. >> like to hear more as it comes up senator, thank you very much. >> thank you. > quk x"ilbeig>>"sawbo wl rht back.

comal up, those numbers.

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welcome back to "squawk box" here rick santelli here live at cme hq with a litany, a long list of important breaking news. let's start out with our first look at fourth quarter gdp expected to be up 2%, buckle up. up 3.3%. up 3.3%. that is a huge jump obviously

following a stronger 4.9, but much stronger than many anticipated. and if we look at consumption, 2.8, 0.3 higher than expected but 0.3 less than the rearview mirror 3.1. price index is half of last time. 1.5. expecting 2.2. last look was 3.3. 1.5, how does that figure in 1.5 would be the lowest since it was negative, and that was june of 2020. now, let's go from month over month to core. shall we on core pricing index. quarter over quarter expecting 2% we have 2% that's the number. and 2% in the rearview mirror. quickly go to retail inventories. expecting unchanged. popped up big time up 0.8%. up 0.8%. these are the types of things that boost gdp plook at wholesale inventories,

same scenario. hole s.e.a. wh wholesale up 0.4%. biggest since november of last year now let's go to trade. shall we on trade, what we are seeing is -- minus 88.5 billion very close to expectations durable goods. if you recall, last time 5.4 best since july of 2020. that moves up to 5.5 on revision, and the averaging takes hold unchanged. less than expected, but when you put the two months together, you can see that isn't a bad number. ex transportation jumps up to 0.6% three times expectations 0.1 higher in the rearview mirror we see transportation orders boosted, boosted, durable goods, and look at capital good orders non-defense, ex aircraft, proxy for capital spending up 0.3.

stronger than we expected and in the rearview mirror upgrade from 0.8 to 1%. to see 0.3, yes, one-third of last month, but still very, very solid. ships come in up 0.1% and finally, initial jobless claims expected to be 200,000 pop up to 214,000. maybe last week's 187,000, now 189,000, affected by a shorter workweek 214,000. that is the biggest initial claims going back to the third week in december when it was 220,000. and finally, continuing claims 1 million 833,000, that follows 1 million 106, higher than expectations interest rates, seen both sides trade, tens up to 418 plus back down to around 114 around 415, down a couple basis

points where they were before the numbers. two-year note yields at 436. exactly where they were before all of these numbers that represents down two basis points on the session, and i will kick it back to the panel i guess in summary, what i found most surprising was the extra strength in gdp. >> yeah. almost goldilocks, seems like. thanks, rick. stay with us for more on the new numbers bring in senior advisor for economic strategy at the american economic liberties project. former deputy director of the national economic council. in the studio joe, u.s. security chief economist. former chief economist at the national economic council our own steve liesman. steve, to you first. is it as simple as some inventory for the gdp? would you characterize it as kind of goldilocks some of the numbers one hot, butted gdp number, 3.3 amazingly

good isn't it >> it's very good, joe it is really interesting there was a negative number expected by a lot of economists when it came to the contribution of inventories didn't happen. may mean there's an inventory in our future rick talked about retail inventory surging, but i think the story, it's a lot of data, and hats off to rick for his clear and cogent reporting of all of that data i think maybe is summarizes to this my bill maher imitation on the economy. nothing to do with inflation the story, we continue to have -- if this were one quarter i'd throw it aside and say, you know what? aberration continually throughout the year we've had strong growth and in this case stronger growth than expected, and relatively benign and inflation numbers coming

down i'm going to leave it there, joe, and just say, look. look at the inflation numbers. they remain at 2%. gdp inflater 1.5%. relatively strong on durables, x transportation strong on gdp and consumption and inflation continues to be well behaved period. >> and barack, what is the underline reason for this? productivity gains is it residual pandemic relief spending people didn't run out yet? what do you attribute it to, exactly? is this organic growth that's actually positive? >> i agree with a lot of what steve said first a blockbuster number on gdp. even setting aside the contribution of inventories. an extraordinarily strong number gdp, the last seven months running under 2% core gdp, what the fed focuses on obviously you have robust growth paired with declining stable inflation

close to the fed's target. reason for that, i think is because we have had a recovery that has been bottom-up, middle-out i mean all the relief provided to individuals, those stimulus checks, those tax cuts and the american rescue plan stabilized household finances quickly we have seen that real wage gains highest among low-income consumers and low-income consumers the ones with highest margin's competencety to consume. go out and spend the extra money. a consumer-driven economy and the american consumer is doing very, very well. see it in retail sales, now in the burgeoning consumer sentiment data all points to a very robust and resilient recovery where the only risk at this point is that the fed takes too long to cut. >> just looking up election day. is it the 5th of november? so, joe, i ask you -- ask you if better or worse? goes, going to have, until november 6th, number's going to

keep coming in like this >> data conspiracy theorist. >> you brought it up. >> just -- >> i said probably higher. said probably be higher. gdp numbers look good. interesting, don't have the numbering yet, income side of the economy. as much as we might say this is a consumer-led economy output is measured what the produce, not what you consume. income numbers very slow don't have the q4 numbers yet. example, four quarters ending q3 income year on year negative, gdp up 3%. possible the numbers could be recovering, income numbers employment data 10 of the last 11 months employment revised lower. careful to describe this economy as booming or blockbuster. n anything like that. gdp, numbers by thoeemselves, no question, look better. >> is it goldilocks.

if you were barack or the biden administration you used that, sounded like, almost sounded like a campaign ad what they say about -- what is it how do you say it? middle-up, bottom -- >> can i say something in response to joe? i don't understand where all this pessimism is coming from. a lot of economists, including joe, i should note early 2023 talking recession inevitable and imminent. those predictions were wrong there's been undue pessimism about state of the economy for years now. instead i think what's happened is people have underestimated that when the ip typical consumr has money in their pockets to spend, real wages up strongly over rate of inflation that leads to a more resilient sustainable recovery and that pessimism continues to be undue, and i frankly think it is disappointing given the fact we've seen these it

extraordinarily strong numbers people want to continually try to talk down the success of this recovery. >> you correctly note. real wages are up just for the last couple of months. >> and two years wages weren't up, when inflation -- i think still beneath where we were prior to the administration. aren't we, santelli? >> yeah. listen, it's easy to find out why wall street, main street, running two different tunes on their ipads. what's going on here think about it this way -- look at issues everyday americans face okay we have border issues and we have overspending by government debt seeded inflation. inflation might be coming down in terms of the rate of change but certainly isn't taking back the prices that went up during the covid period what's more, many of the government programs that wall street likes and look at these numbers, main street isn't looking at these numbers what main street's looking as is that the u.s. economy for all

practical purposes is a perpetual motion machine there's no other machine that's anything like it when you shut down the economy during covid, then open it back up, you should not be shocked to see what's going on here what people are shocked about isishes, you're not going to brag about the economy when everything everybody buys on a day-to-day basis that makes less than about $100 grand a year is starting to continually feel it in their wallets one more thing germany. look at germany. king economy of europe the top of the mountain. it is coughing there's a relative trade here that is finding the u.s. just outshining many of what its previous peers used to be that aren't in a post-covid war. >> were you bearish? >> no. call receial gdp. >> in a ekd is, steve. go ahead. >> real gdp shrunk first half of 2022 wouldn't be cost that a

recession isn't coming government spending side has been massive since january of '21, calculated about $3.2 trillion of excess spending's helping the economy no question. >> which joe was on to something? couldn't be me couldn't it, steve >> i meant you, joe. you're the only one that talked about productivity could be something going on beneath the surface when it comes to productivity. >> why >> and steve said perpetual motion machine of the u.s. economy. i think what's happened, theorizing this, businesses responded to higher prices by becoming more efficient. now that the rate of inflation has come down, both those companies and the u.s. economy are reaping those benefits it's early days to declare this, but you saw people respond you saw the technology that's been deployed from everywhere from mcdonald's to even a.i. in your consumer customer service locations that could be, in

fact, stephen davis from the hoover institute theorizing may be a work-from-home making people more productive that's out there good things happening under the surface and very little to do with the political situation you like to debate businesses seem to have responded, people have more money in their pocket because of it and that means higher wages relative to inflation and that's, i think, just good news. i don't want to say goldilocks i don't want to jinx it, joe if there's productivity going on it is goldilgoldilocks thank you, grudgington post, big smiley sign. gdp up -- crushes expectations they love it love it. and thank you all. santelli not to be confused with santoli. thank you. you working with the administration if we got back in

>> sure. >> and steve liesman, who doesn't want to jinx it. already said it, but, thanks. when we come back, we will talk about what the new gdp data means for the federal reserve, as it gets ready for its meeting next week. former dallas fed president richard fisher will join us right after this stay tuned you're watching quk x,"sawbo" and this is cnbc.

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welcome back the economy growing a rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter that is well above the 2% estimate yep, hotter. according to data released we just got talk about what that number means for the federal reserve. former dallas fed president richard fisher is here and senior advisor serves on the board of a health care and warner brothers and cnbc contributor. love having you here especially when big, important numbers who like this come out hotter than people expected making it a little more

difficult, i think, for, i ima imagine, you tell me, mr. powell to lower the rate? >> well, the recession's receding i like to say. everybody was talking recession, recession, recession you have to give the f1c credit. powell credit. exactly what we were hoping to see in the best sucircumstances has obtained. >> good news, in a way >> good news and tells me why would you have to move right now? everything's going pretty splendidly unless we see a pop-up in unemployment still 3.7%. >> right. >> or some disturbing development on the credit system i think they have very good policy right now and should be congratulated. >> for this news, congratulated. okay what is the chance, though, they get down to their goal in the next, call it, say 24 months >> oh, 24 months >> 24 months

>> yeah. 694 days go ahead. >> do you think you can get down to 2% in two years >> i think we can get close. yes. but, again, why act if we still have an economy that's growing as it is and if -- >> i'm not deny itting -- >> productivity is comes up. we'll see. look, andrew, rates are normal now. >> okay. >> this is where things are supposed to be. >> so you put this in a goldilocks category of sorts >> i don't like that term but i think things work the out pretty well. >> ask you this, then. talking about this being an election year. how do you rate or judge the economy? >> remember, i live in texas it's really -- i think it's doing well i mean, and by the way, more and more people i talk to on the street are somehow thinking that powell's going to accommodate politically. he won't. remember, he beat the president of the united states on the hill

to get renominated just like paul volcker did when reagan tried to impeach him. a lot of confidence at the federal reserve right now, i think, and no need to making any steps that might be construed as being political convenient as to whostory >> but you would say, then -- so, you would give the economy an "a" a "b"? a what >> a-plus. >> the economy gets an a-plus from you >> 3.7% unemployment inflation is coming down it's -- okay >> i'm not going to debate the point with you, but i would imagine many of your peers in texas have a very different view >> well, remember, i come here as well. i don't just live in texas 100% of the time. from that lens, things are great. things are slowing down in texas, but you're still leading the nation in every job category of growth. it's a great place to be >> can we talk about this

productivity piece what do you think that's going to mean to the jobs picture? we were talking about layoffs earlier in the broadcast today >> it's not that we have massive layoffs right now. we don't just have people as aggressively hiring or leaving the firms they work for. but we get a lot of attention with the giant companies that are laying off people. we're not hearing that much from the small, medium-sized businesses that women and men run, and the ones that are traded privately who create -- don't trade publicly they create 80% of the jobs in america historically and 50% of the jobs they're not laying people off. they're worried about finding good people, and i think that's going to be even more desperate to hold on to what you got >> you don't think this is going to impact the jobs picture for jay powell to the degree that he is trying to serve two masters, if you will? >> yeah, well, you got inflation, and you also have optimal employment >> right >> right now, with this kind of economic growth, people are jobs people have jobs

they spend money, as rick santelli said. i want to know what rick takes in the morning, by the way he's got more enthusiasm than any human being on the planet. how many cups of coffee? >> i think he's just naturally that way >> when you think, though, about -- we were talking to this fellow in the 6:00 hour about a.i. and whether we think a.i. is going to take jobs in a meaningful way over the next two years. do you believe that? >> i can see it particularly for some of the physical labor, inventory management and so on, yeah i think it's a significant force. however, it should create new jobs as well as long as we keep our secondary education system up to par, which it is not now. so, we have a lot of adjustments to make. a.i. should be a productivity enhancer let's see what happens >> well, but part of the argument is that it's the blue-collar jobs that may be more protected than the white-collar jobs, oddly enough. we've been telling the american people for a long time, you need to go to school to become an

engineer when a.i. is -- >> white-collar jobs have a capacity to adjust, mostly college-educated, i would think. the blue-collar guys, we still need physical labor. we still need blue-collar workers. some of that will be displaced by a.i think about how you load a crate up on to something, pepsico, for example. all that new mechanism can help protect the safety of the workers but also enhance their efficiency >> can i ask you a consumer confidence question? maybe you can see this as a board member of barclay's. i don't know when you look through checking accounts or credit card numbers. >> checking accounts what are those nobody has one anymore >> i still have a checking account. in terms of how much minute people have in the bank -- by the way, you can see this around churn and other issues in your life at warner breos. discovery, sort of where you think the consumer -- how the consumer is really feeling today, and i ask that in part because i think we still -- there's this view that somehow stimulus money is still sort of in the system.

>> well, we know that consumers are stretched on their credit cards. those are very high rates to pay. we know that auto loan defaults are increasing on used autos in particular but also new cars so, there obviously is a little bit of stress on the consumer. but again, andrew, when you have a job, you can spend money, and we see that manifest in restaurants and entertainment. taylor swift, et cetera. >> what an optimistic view today. >> a-plus. >> richard, thank you. appreciate it. great to see you >> dow is up now dow is up sharply after that i was just -- ibm is offsetting boeing that's what's happening. >> right, right. >> and looking into it, most shocking to me, dow chemical are you kidding me it's a dow component $37 billion. it has nothing to do with market cap. it has to do with, we need a chemical company in there, and dow just happens to be -- >> the one >> -- the one. >> coming pg up, a lot more on

"squawk. stay tuned "squawk box" returns after this. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones

let's get over to dom chu with a check on some of today's

top premarket movers >> good morning, becky we'll start with one of the biggest decliners so far premarket, humana, down nearly 15% right now. 600,000 shares of volume the company reporting a surprise loss for the quarter it was on slightly better than expected revenues, not yet clear whether the 11-cent loss per share is comparable to estimates, but humana's full-year profit guidance fell well short of expectations as it continues to deal with rising medical costs. other health insurers like united health, cigna, are all down in sympathy with that trade. we'll watch that trend develop through the opening bell next up, you got shares of boeing, down 2.5%. nearly half a million shares of volume the embattled aerospace and defense giant continues to see negative headlines u.s. aviation regulators have placed restrictions on boeing's ability to expand production analysts have downgraded the stock to neutral from buy due in

part to those restrictions the faa has cleared inspection instructions for the 737 max-9 jet, which could clear a path towards planes getting returned to service in the near future. tesla, that stock is drive ago lot of the narrative in the nasdaq the electric vehicle giant reporting disappointing quarterly profits and revenues also said that vehicle volume growth will likely be "notably lower this year. those tesla shares down, 8.5%, a big part of the tech trade story. >> dom, thank you very much. folks, we are winding things up here on "squawk box." let's look at where the futures stand. green arrows across the board as joe mentioned, dow coming back after those stronger than expected gdp numbers, up about 83 points right now above fair value. s&p futures up by about 18 and the nasdaq indicated up by about 90 that's a lot stronger than where we started this morning too.

yesterday, you did see the s&p 500 and the nasdaq 100 both setting new records once again we'll see if that streak continues. you've got just about a half an hour to go to the opening bell on wall street ten-year yielding 4.1% the two-year at 4.15%, so not a lot of movement there. >> no rate cuts but the dow is up it's weird are we winding up -- winding it up or winding it down? >> down. winding up for tomorrow. >> "squawk on the street" is next bye. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange q4 gdp crushes estimates, up 3.3% street was looking for 2%. price index drops to the lowest level in almost four years tesla's tumble, though, the first of the mag seven to