"squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. check it out you are seeing steep declines on friday morning dow futures indicated off 60 s&p futures down 7.5 the nasdaq indicated down of 97 points a lot of this is because of pressure coming from intel we will talk about that story in a moment for the week to date, the dow is up .50%. the s&p and nasdaq are up 1% the pressure today will be something to watch treasury yields at this point looks like the ten-year yield is sitting at 4.1%. the two-year note at 4.3%. we will talk more about this in

a moment. let's talk about nuews from the white house. biden administration temporarily pausing the decision of lng. the export facilities that do not yet have a permit will be put on hold. they will review the energy costs and energy security and the environment. the new move does not impact current exports or permitted facilities started construction. the u.s. is the largest lng exporter back in 2023 seven years after beginning exporting. president biden says he sees the climate crisis as the existential threat of our time jennifer granholm will speak to us at 7:30 a.m. over what this means. there will be a lot of pushback from people.

jennifer granholm met with/officials and urged the bankers to innvest in clean energy >> i have no words. intel shares -- i do have shares it is friday my blood pressure. >> lng preplaces coal. it is also a security threat from russia. >> a great business. it's clean. >> when russia cut off germany, we stepped up and helped them out. >> we love exports it is a great export business. that's what i said in makeup i'm not going to say it again. it is the most obscene type of politicking to get young voters for the election that's what it is all about

because of the inn fat fatuatio. you wonder why we're cynical this it is the worst system, economic system in the world, we have >> the worst >> except for every other system >> can i say it is possible you can have a genuine view about the climate which you disagree with >> it is not possible. >> i'm not going to talk about how ludicrous this has gotten. this displaces >> you hear former president trump and he doesn't want a deal >> if you accept the watered down chuck schumer bill, it will not be -- there is a way -- politicking is everywhere. the worst system in the world

except for all of the other systems. in this case, to me, it is indefensible i can't. i don't have words. intel shares tumbling. earnings and revenue beat estimates. the current quarter earnings forecast 13 cents a share fell short of the 33 cents the street was expecting. didn't we think intel had turned a corner >> yup >> and i don't want to hit up a long-term chart. i don't want to get depressed. it is not as bad as i thought. that's not a long-term hold on. when was it? at these levels in march of 2017 can you tell from that one yeah ceo pat gelsinger spoke to jon fortt last night

he blamed the weak guidance on several subsidiaries, but the core business is strong. >> we had a good year and important year for the company we bring that momentum into q1 on the low end of seasonality has a wide range in the core businesses, the products are healthy and the market share is strong there's not any particular news there. we just see a little bit of more conservatism in the market as we come into the year >> i like to look at maybe a five-year or ten-year amd. amd is worth 50% more. i never thought that would happen market cap worth 50% more than intel. $300 billion gelsinger said his strategy is to build two world class companies. the product group as well as the

foundry business that can't be right. did you see it >> i did >> 4,000%. i don't think that's right there's some fluke. visa shares are falling this morning after earnings and revenue beat expectations. the company warned of a slight dip in payment volumes in early january. the cfo flblaming the extreme cd in the united states the company's ceo said the spending was resilient benefits from the strong growth in the u.s. economy american express is due to report at 7:00 a.m. eastern time this morning you see amex ahead of that down by .80%. t-mobile shares are missing earnings estimates, but revenue beat by $1 billion strong subscriber gains.

t m t-mobile added 9 million customers in the quarter expected to add 5 million more this year. that's something that's quite something to think about. >> that, too >> t-mobile. talk about a success story at&t and verizon you see withione line and one l. >> two companies and you say what a crappy business how is ryan reynolds >> he sold his business. >> he still does the ads >> i don't know. does he? >> yeah. i see them all the time. >> he sold that business >> nice that he is trying to help out shares of tesla closed down 12% yesterday after the slowdown of growth in 2024. last night on "mad money," jim cramer said tesla is out of the magnificent seven of the high flying tech stocks >> someone who is among the

first to vocalize the magnificent seven, i officially knowledge there are six left >> we will talk more about the ev market with former ford ceo mark fields in the next hour that should be interesting he decided to buy all those ev from hertz >> he announced it we spoke to him about it >> they canceled rahalf of them that's the other thing i don't know where the real climates think we are going to power the grid natural gas is probably the best way to power the grid. cleanest we have to power the grid for all of this other stuff we're going to do. solar and wind are not ready they will not be ready for a while. >> it is the transmission lines to get the energy from the solar

and wind from where the wind blows and sun shines >> what about where the sun doesn't shine? >> i know where that is. shares of lvmh are jumping in paris higher than expected sales for 2023 and raising annual dif ded dividend the fashion sector grew 14% year over year. the perfume was up 11% the stock is up by more than 11% this morning sdp >> it was a $2 stock, amd. when we come back, more on "squawk box. the fed's inflation gauge out at 8:30 a.m we have dwyane wade to talk about his latest business venture.

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welcome back to "squawk box. on today's agenda is the december core pce. the year over year gain of 3%. a drop from the november reading. we have the chief market strategist from morningstar. good morning

yesterday, we had richard fisher on the broadcast after the gdp number he said he thought we had an "a plus" economy. it would be an "a" or "a minus." do you think that is the case, dave >> we think the economy is poised to weaken we are looking for gdp to decline for the next three quarters bottoming out in the third quarter before we begin a rec recovery it is more important about looking at inflation we will see where the number prints today we are looking at 2% increase on the month over month basis we think inflation will continue to moderate. we think pce gets over 2% year over year run rate we think the fed will cut as soon as march. >> do you think the fed will cut in march >> yeah. >> that is the hotter than we

thought from yesterday, lindsey? >> i think the argument should be how long will the fed remain at the elevated levels the fed has been willing to introduce potential rate cuts in the future in the conversation when you talk about the economy and growing at above the 3% pace, the consumer up 3% and inflation is still elevated. i think historically, we would have been talking about further rate hikes as opposed to cuts. i think right now, while the economy is losing momentum and fatigue is setting in, but we are still on solid ground. this justifies the fed to be on hold for longer than the market is spexpecting. the rate cut pushed to the second half of the year. >> dave is in march and you are in june, lindsey >> i think it could be later than june.

depending on the evolution of the inflation which could reverse course mid part of the year the fed could be on hold until september. june is a realistic timeline. >> before i go back to dave, there may be a conspiratorial view perhaps once you get to august or september, if you are the fed, you almost feel like you can't do anything given you are two and a half months out from the presidential election. do you think that is true? >> i think there is a unwritten message from the fed they prefer not to tinker with rates the fed has been willing to raise rates or cut rates during the election year with both incumbent republican and democrats. that won't preclude them from adjusting policy if it is in the best interest of achieving the dual mandate. >> david, you disagree which makes for a great cable segment.

tell us why. >> we are confident if they don't cut in march, they will cut at the may meeting it all comes down to inflation and inflation moderating in the face of the economy which is still hotter than most people expect the fed was late with inflation rising i think the fed has to be aware of the opposite side that with the economy starting to weaken here, and they are trying to engineer the soft landing, they don't want to get behind the ball and start cutting early enough i think they need to cut and if they don't cut, it changes our base case from the soft landing into the recession territory >> you think recession is still in the offing? >> that is not the base case the base case is the fed starts to cut here or in march and then in may then it helps the economy bottom out in the third quarter and

rise for the end of the year. >> lindsey, i heard you in the eye of the beholder. the fed will keep rates at the elevated levels. compared to what >> most investors are remembering the pre-pandemic era of near zero interest rates. that is part of the reason the market is perpetually calling an end to rate hikes over the past few years and pricing in rate cuts this buy bias. >> we know zero wasn't right no one thinks that was normal. what's normal? these are not elevated in historical range. >> relative to the era or decade leading into coifvid, they are. when you talk about the fed holding rates at 5, that seems

inconceivable if you only know zero interest rate policy. it is in the eye of the beholder we have to put the relativity cloud over that. for the fed's perspective, when you look at a solid economy and a number of wild cards, including international factors outside of the fed purview which could cause reversal hid year, there is no rush to remove this level of restriction in policy we don't need to remain at these levels perpetually there is no rush i think the market is overpricing anticipation of the first rate cut and the pace of rate cuts. i think that will be tempered at 25 basis points a quarter leaving us beyond neutral as we look out to 2025 >> dave and lindsey, thank you very much. we will see where things stand

at 8:30 today. >> thank you. >> thank you still to come this morning, new hurdles in washington for a tax package for businesses that bill could come to the floor as soon as next week plus, new data on how nikki haley's fund raising efforts stack up to formerrede psint trump's. "squawk box" will be right back.

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>> reporter: becky, this tax package is the one with credits for businesses and kids. this could get a house vote as soon as next week. it is facing opposition from all corners of congress. we have concerns from progressives who believe the tax credit needs to provide more funding and help more kids you have republicans concerned that the bill could allow undocumented immigrants with kids born in the u.s. to get tax breaks and you see the end of the deductions for local businesses and some lawmakers raised concerns are work requirements for the child tax credit if the $78 billion package is going to be fully paid for here. the tax expert with pwc said tweaks to the bill could be difficult especially if the house winds up voting on and passing the bill with strong bipartisan support >> i think the appetite for

further changes is pretty limited. that is not to say people wouldn't try to change it, but i'm skeptical especially with how divided the house. >> reporter: if speaker johnson goes to a vote next week, he will have to be using a process of procedural move to require two-thirds of all makers to support the bill for it to pass. that may team tough in the divided congress, but there was hope for the bill last week when the key tax panel approved the bill 40-3 with many members expressing concerns about the legislation ultimately backing it jason smith, the chair of the ways and means committee, noted the bill focused on bipartisan tax provisions, but needs to move soon so businesses can get the tax benefits when filing for 2023 >> businesses are struggling that's what we heard at traveled

across the country the inflation crisis affected them the spike in interest rates affected them. >> reporter: house speaker mike johnson will need to decide today if the bill will get a vote next week guys, we know he has been having conversations with members trying to figure out what the path forward here is and it is certainly something putting pressure on the business community for congress to get done, but they have to figure out if they have the votes >> emily, if it doesn't get passed, what happens to the child tax credit that went up significantly during covid >> reporter: that really doesn't come back at all even if this does get as passed -- >> it doesn't get passed does any of this sunset? i thought i read that somewhere. i would be wrong if there is no action. >> reporter: a lot of the provisions were put in place with the bipartisan tax law in

2017 they expired in recent years and congress is saying let's try to bring some of these back they were important for businesses if it doesn't get done now, they have another bite of the apple in 2025 when most tax provisions in that larger law sunset and congress needs to decide to up them i asked jason smith why not wait until next year. he said businesses need the help right now and they can't wait. >> emily, thank you very much. emily wilkins. coming up, new fund raising numbers in the gop presidential race details straight ahead. as we head to break, here is a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business

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welcome back to "squawk

box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. if you look at the futures this morning, we are under pressure yesterday, the markets closed higher the dow futures are down 41 this morning. s&p futures off 5. the nasdaq is down by 90 again, last time we looked at intel shares, they were off 11%. that is the pressure on the nasdaq and the dow bright spot for gop presidential candidate nikki haley after her defeat in the new hampshire primary. new fund raising report says the super pac backing haley raised $50.1 million in the last six months of the 2023 out raising the super pac backed by donald trump by $5 million. trump fired back at her donors this week saying in a social media post saying he would permanently barn anyone who fund haley. she raised $2.6 million since

new hampshire voting ended on tuesday. and druckenmiller and kravis and langone and asness are scheduled to host a fund-raiser for haley on tuesday i have heard indirectly a bit of anxiousness. that was before new hampshire. everybody was hopeful at that point. our next guest was a backer for florida governor ron desantis until he suspended his campaign. he is supporting trump as the nominee. joining us now is hal lambert. good to have you back today. >> great to be here. >> you are like a lot of individuals. you will back the republican nominee, i think there are a lot of business

people like jamie dimon nailed it in davos. he said character issues aside and some things you don't like about president trump, but plenty of people that just like policies we had during his last administration yet, you knew a quasi incumbent was running? >> desantis got every policy he wanted done in florida and the state's booming. the state of pulflorida is where many people are moving because of his policies. he turned a state which was purple into a 20--point-win. those were the main reasons. of course, he could serve two terms. joe, i really didn't -- no matter how much the media wanted, i did not want to be back in four years with 60

people attacking each other. that is where we will be because trump can only serve one term. we will be right back at it with a lot of people running in 2028 because we can only serve one term trump is clearly going to be the nominee here nikki haley's money came in it before the primary she is losing her home state badly. i suspect the money will dry up as we h go through south carolia i would not be surprised if they doesn't drop out before south carolina to avoid the massive blowout which appears to be happening there. >> you got to love her defiance and resolve. if you lose by 30 points in your home state and both senators endorsed donald trump, it is an exercise you have to ask yourself what might be the point. you just made a point that the vice presidential pick for former president trump is really

big. not to say that the vice president on the other side is not something that gets a lot of people's attention, too, in terms of the next election trump's pick could be the successor if president trump were to get back in. >> it will be massively important. as the age of both biden and trump are up there, the vice president pick is huge i recommend publicly that he pick and look at governor greg abbott of texas. i think he doing a great job he understands the border and mexico texas is the eighth largest economy in the world high energy. we have energy production. he understands that. that is really important i think he would open the door to a lot of donors turned off by trump right now. go ahead

>> i don't know how long we have i want to get to other stuff we have here. i didn't mean to cut you off governor abbott got his name in the news with what is happening in all of the other republican governors. you like what desantis did as governor and you picked him. you preferred him over former president trump. was it just you like things about desantis or did you have a problem with certain things about president trump? if you didn't have a problem, there were certain things, why not? >> i think there were other factors, too i think it was going to be more difficult for president trump to win the election than desantis he turns out the base of the party like nobody else can, including bernie sanders that is the problem. the base may not be happy with

biden. they are not you can tell many of them will turn out just to vote against trump. they are not voting for biden. that was a concern of mine and still is >> you don't have to be a never trumper. there are mainstream republicans that just look at some of the things -- i don't know of the 91 counts and if anything sticks. in the journal op-ed pages, it is clear from what we know maybe this is political and maybe he doesn't get convicted of a felony. there are mainstream republicans who think his actions make him unfit for the president. >> i would not use the term unfit. a lot of the attacks on him on the justice system is really political. he certainly did some things that egged it on not turning back over the documents from mar-a-lago. he can have turned it over and avoided that he didn't do it. there is the battle mentality

between trump and the justice department and they have gone to war. i don't think it is helpful when it comes to being reelected. >> hal, how do you think of the cabinet members which decried his president? bill barr saying he should not been any where near the oval office james mattis and mark milley h.r. mcmaster? john kelly we can go through a list of people who know him better than just about anybody over yourself i don't mean to suggest you don't know him well. people who work with him day and day out who have a visceral reaction to the view of this man should not be near the white house? >> that is true. a number of former cabinet

officials view it that way i think a lot of that is because of the relationship soured while they were there as we may remember >> have you heard anything like that in your life before from other cabinets you can go back in it history. it is rare where cabinet members come out and say i worked with this person and say they should never been near the white house. >> i don't know how many said that i think that may be one person who said that. was that bill barr i think they all have their relationships strained with trump. tillerson was fired over twitter while overseas it is a bombastic way trump operates and hurt him with the former administrative officials. >> hal, once again -- >> should we take anything away? >> we are returning to a binary

choice if it is not donald trump, it is biden with harris. >> the idea that this is somehow -- >> what is best for the country is what we are looking for here. people that support trump can make a case in their minds and they think he is best. you have to honor them they are not deplorables or trea treasonous >> some people are working with bad information. >> okay. the same ones that think -- >> i'm not saying people are stupid >> how can you not have the information? we have the information. >> andrew, if the terrorist comes across the southern border and blows up a building and kills a bunch of people, is that more of a danger to the country than trump was biden's policies more of a danger to the country than

trump? >> i may shockingly agree on lots of policy positions and i would suggest there are a lot of questions about the biden policies in place today. i don't think there are fair questions to be asked about the approach that biden has taken on a number of issues >> you can rank threats to the country. i can get you a greater threat or argue it if i was on the debate team that there are things about biden that are a greater threat to democracy and this country than donald trump's character flaws. >> that's your position? >> i'm not taking that position, but a lot of people are taking that position. are y you are not taking that position >> hal, thank you. welcome to the show. you get both sides here. we understand. what did you think you hadn't had an interview this good >> i loved it. i think it is great. joe, you are right

people can make the argument that some of biden's policies are more dangerous to the country than trump and they are not deplorable >> that is before the possibility of kamala harris >> an easy interview he didn't have to talk a lot >> that is a lot of our arguments. i take the onus off the interviewee. one of my skills sdl hal, come on back. we can continue the ckco conversation. coming up, a leadership shuffle at jpmorgan chase which sheds a little bit of light on the candidates who could eventually replace jamie dimon in a succession if that were to ever happen. reminder -- if anyone can succeed jamie dimon. big shoes. reminder, get the best of squaw pod on your favorite podcast app

and listen any time. we're coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. jpmorgan chase announcing a new or expanded role for candidates to succeed djamie dimon which would be big shoes to fill we have jennifer piepszak to be the co-head and troy rohrbach

with marianne lake to be the frontrunner. it is not sure if dimon is going to leave any time soon dimon's retirement is always five years away. we will see. time now for the sectornomics is there opportunity in the group for utilities? we have pippa stevens with more. >> andrew, utilities was the worst sector in 2023 following the losses, the sector is now 15 times forward earnings which is about 14% below the ten-year average key bank says the group looks inn expensive and the sector offers a a tttractive dividend growth with this in mind, we screen the sector for the names that are

the most and least expensive american water works at 23.6 times forward earnings with constellation and southern company rounding out top three in the last year, the utility sector lost 11% and the s&p gained 22% with the rate cuts on the hor horizon, it could get more attention in the sector. >> pippa, thank you very much. when we come back, chips and queso. we will talk about the big slide for intel and other stock with chris caso that is next "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: sectornomics is sponsored by sector spdr etfs. .

intel reported stronger than expected quarterly results, but

it is the weak guidance for the current quarter that is hitting the stock so hard this morning that stock right now down by more than 10%. joining us to go over the results is chris caso, he is wolfe research senior analyst. chris, obviously this is coming as a huge surprise to the street what happened? >> well, it is really -- i would say it is really kind of three things going on from a revenue perspective. one is, pc market, it started its correction a year ago, it is still sluggish in addition, there has been this rolling inventory correction within semiconductors. that hit some of intel's noncore businesses they have a big interest in mobile a.i. that negatively preannounced also the former altera business, which is broad-based, similar to what we heard from ti at the beginning of the week. and also, you know, the core server business, the issue there is that, you know, with what's happening with a.i., and all the capex that needs to go to spending to support the a.i.

servers that is benefiting nvidia, there is less capex available for the traditional cpu server, which is the bread and butter of intel's business n that sense, you know, there is some negative effect by the fact that they're just not participating in what is going on with a.i. right now >> i think the longer term kind of playbook has been that they are going to invest in america, build all of these chip fabs here, the factories here but that's a long way off. i guess you have to convince people this plan is going to work do they have that believability on the street or is this sell-off an indication that, no, they're not going to get the goodwill >> well, you know, more folks and we have an underperform rating on the stock, but the bull case has been that pac elsinger has effectively been successful in the strategy to, you know, fix the manufacturing what they talked about is five process nodes in four years,

never been done in semis before and looks like they have done the question on that is what does success look like part of the issue is gross margin pressure, which is resulting from the depreciation from all of the money that they're spending right now but really, when you get to the end of it, really for intel to be successful and to get a return all the money that they provided, they need to build a foundry business, something to compete with tsmc. the thought there is, you know, we need geographic diversity and semiconductor manufacturing, that's one thing intel will put forward. they'll have an event next month where they make the case for that but our view is it's -- it is uncertain at best and it still will take years for that to materialize. so, our view is bullish on intel stock on that, you still have to be very, very patient to do so >> so the stocks you really like in this arena, i think you got outperform on amd, qualcomm,

what other names >> so, nvidia, yeah, nvidia is our top pick right now you can see there is an a.i. bent to that i'll point out after the estimate cut for intel right now, nvidia and intel are at the same valuation on calendar '25 numbers. and the concern on nvidia now is, boy, things are so good, is it sustainable but we just see there is so much legs to a.i. right now nvidia is so dominant in this, the supply constraint today, there is a lot of room for that. in the case of amd, you know, they're smaller and newer on t the reason why the stock has done so well is optimism that they will be sort of the amd to nvidia in a.i., the same way that they have been the amd to intel and cpu for many years. >> we're just looking at all the stocks amd down about 2% on this news this morning even nvidia off by about 1%. you think that's a buying opportunity or should this cast

a pall over the rest of the stocks as well >> in amd's case, there is an overlap. so, you know, intel talked about the low end of seasonality for both the pc and the server business that does have an effect on amd. we do think there is potential for some estimate cut on amd into the numbers but the long game on amd is really about what is happening in a.i and obviously what intel talked about doesn't have any effect on that. >> what would it actually take to change your mind on the case for intel? if they're talking about these lower margins through the entire course of the years, basically nothing they could say that would make you like this sooner? >> well, you know, i think from a 2024 standpoint, you know, flo one is owning intel for 2024 it is a disappointment in the meantime the issue is cash flow too, they're not generating cash. and our view on intel right now is more relative that, you know,

we just prefer, you know, growth and cash flow over the next 12, 24 months. looking forward, farther out, the success of that foundry business is very important because in our view, that's the only way you're going to get acceptable returns on investment for the money that they're spending on manufacturing right now. we think it is going to take a while. we think there is convincing that still needs to be had but i think what is needed for the stock to work is that foundry business to have just plausible success in that business >> okay. chris, thanks a lot. >> thank you coming up, the fed's favorite inflation gauge is due at 8:30 a.m. eastern steve liesman will join us on insight on the fed's next move that's coming up next. later, energy secretary jennifer granholm will join us to talk about the administration's new pause of approvals for lng export facilities as we head to break, check out today's move in the price of

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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square on this friday morning i'm andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and joe kernen i've got a lot going on. let's show you where the futures are now. we have red on the screen. dow up about 27, 28 points nasdaq off by 80 points. s&p 500 off by 5 points. the stocks that are dragging down the markets this morning. but look at treasuries right now. ten-year at 4.118. the two-year, moving higher, 4.316. oil, we'll talk about lng in a little bit as well look at this, wti crude, sitting just about 7675. and natural gas this morning, because as we just mentioned, the white house saying it will pause a pending approvals for liquefied natural gas plants while the department of energy updates how it evaluates the projects no timeline given. senior administration officials saying it will take some months. currently seven lng export

plants in the u.s. and five under construction the u.s. became the world's largest lng exporter in 2023, seven years after beginning exports. jennifer granholm will be with us on talk about all of this at 7:30 a.m. eastern time we got lots of questions about this in the meantime, american express reporting results. earnings coming in for the quarter at $2.62 a share came in on revenue of $15.8 billion, also below estimates. credit loss provisions came in roughly in line, maybe a little bit higher at 1.44 billion if you're taking a look at the stock, though, it is higher right now. up by 2.6% that's probably because for the full year amex is saying it sees earnings per share coming in somewhere in the range of $12.65 a share to $13.15. and that is well above the street's estimate for the year of $12.41. also full year revenue growth,

looking between growth of 9% to 11%. that is versus 9.1% growth for expectations so the range is higher than that amex also raising its dividend by 17% it is go to be raising that dividend to 70 cents a share from 60 cents starting in march. i spoke with christophe lakayak and he pointed through some of the things they have been seeing he said overall, they're still looking at pretty strong card spend and that's not what we heard from visa yesterday. they're talking about how travel and entertainment spending there up by 9% and within that segment, restaurant growth has been really strong, up 11% they say they had more than $100 billion in restaurant spend for the first time ever. one of the things that is pretty interesting is they did see a little bit of softness when it came to airlines, which is also what we heard from several airlines they saw growth there still up 6%, but that was a slower growth pace than we have seen to this point. if you're looking at small and

medium-sized businesses, card spending there up by 1%. guys, the reason that they're able to raise their guidance for this year is not only they think that consumers keep spending on these, they say they have got a higher quality credit card member so, they're less concerned about the write-offs that have come very quickly st visa was blaming weather they say they're good at bringing in younger members at this point and they're very happy about that, they say younger people, 35 and younger, will be with them for the long haul, trying to build out some of the valuations that -- value propo propositions you talked about this a lot, what you can get for the cards it is things like experiences where you can get into concerts and get early tickets for those things, you can get on rezi and get reservations for restaurants you might not be able to get access to otherwise. they think that's built up the proposition, especially with younger people >> i think the real value is not the experiences as you know. i think the real value is in the

cash programs, the true givebacks. the uber, the airplanes. >> streaming you get for free. >> the streaming the digital products you can look at that, i don't know, $700, $7 750, you can get that money back on its face. it is a remarkable thing. >> it seems obvious they have a -- they would say their customers are probably more creditworthy than others >> they have been in the past. >> you know in a month, don't you? everybody else is, like, trying to get -- if you don't -- you can find out quickly if someone is a deadbeat. >> they kicked off a lot of people in the financial crisis they cut off card users really quickly. >> that comes due, believe me, i see it i don't have one >> but you see the bill. >> but i do. i see a good one >> the stock right now -- >> a lo lot of miles >> for the quarter they just reported, they came in below

expectations they said part of that is the argentine peso devaluation, that cost them 16 cents and the street didn't know about all of that. but you can see, that's what the results are. >> membership has its privileges, i think, i heard new inflation numbers. i don't know how fresh they're going to be. says they're fresh here. but new anyway numbers on top in 90 minutes a series of data points that are important for the fed to figure out how much and how deeply or whether to cut rates at all senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with how good news presents a dilemma for the fed. yesterday we couldn't figure that out strong economy, market goes up, but if inflation is down, maybe what you said is right, there is no connection necessary between growth and inflation let's just make that statement >> yeah. and, joe, i'm thinking about this, this morning, which is if it ain't particularly broke as i'm looking at the economy, how much should the fed actually be

fixing it? this combination we had from the data joe is talking about, good growth, declining inflation numbers, and that should be repeated in this morning's data, suggests the u.s. economy so far is holding up well at the current of what the fed calls restrictive policy rate. so, the rate of inflation has come down fairly steadily, since peaking first quarter of 2022. growth remained above potential and finish the year by 2023 with two strong quarters. that's the blue line you see right there. how wrong or how tight is the current rate by the fed's own metric, 5.38 fund rate now. it is almost 300 basis points or 3 percentage points above the long run rate that it forecast up 2.5%. by everyone's account, this should have cooled the economy and raised the unemployment rate but it barely did. futures markets priced that rate to decline below 4% this year the fed's own forecast sees it climbing just 4.6%

the fed has said it is data dependent. this doesn't scream about an economy in need of relief it might mean the fund rate is closer than the fed thinks the growth in inflation numbers will remove some of the fed's urgency to cut interest rates. the dilemma is that waiting for the data to weaken probably means waiting too long, it takes time for the lower rates to help the economy. at some point, this window on sticking that soft landing is going to close if these rates are indeed highly restrictive. the data now suggests the fed can risk keeping rates higher for longer, with only gradual reductions this year and i just think it may not speed up the pace of interest rate cuts unless you see real economic weakness. joe? >> interesting we had lots of discussions today. and i took issue with why are they keeping rates so high if -- and aren't these normalized?

are these rates really higher now? maybe versus inflation, maybe it is tight versus pce. but historically these aren't high rates and the zero with had after the financial crisis, that was not normal we don't need to normalize our rates back to zero >> you're right. and that's -- there is two different ways to think about this one to think about the rate relative to inflation. if the numbers we get today annualize out the way that people think they will, which would be below 2% on a three-year, six-month basis on the core level, then rates are indeed high relative to the inflation level and relative to the long run rate. but, joe, there is a whole other way to think about it. think about the interest rate as a price for money. and what is going on in the world? what are the men who you're talking to, the ceos telling you about the demand for money right now? the a.i. investment, the government investment going on in roads and bridges and other things that the biden

administration is involved in. is there a large demand for money and is that demand for money speak of a higher interest rate that is needed in the economy to create that balance or that neutral rate that doesn't stoke inflation? >> we know what happens when it doesn't have a cost and that's -- >> right. >> any time we have screwed up, it has been a result of money not having any cost. then you build -- look at china. they got all the stadiums, they have the sports they're playing in half of them. all right. thanks, steve. >> we're all looking for the same thing, joe. it is happiness and the real mutual rate. >> wasn't on my top five list, but okay. >> happiness -- >> it should be. it should be >> the real neutral rate. >> aren't you happy? >> that makes you happy? >> happy because -- >> no, those are separate things happiness and the real neutral rate we're all seeking the same

thing. >> all right we got to move to bvuitton. >> i've seen those -- >> i was very happy about that >> we have to decide on the best countries, so preposterous i'm not going back >> you're coming down from your -- >> i'm sure they would be very happy for you not to let's talk markets right now. joining us for that is mona mahajan, amber jones principle and senior investment strategist let's try to figure out what we can take out of earnings so far. you hear something like what we heard from visa yesterday about how they are seeing slowdown with the consumer offset by what american express is saying about things then you got the consumer electronics weaknesses that are impacting stocks from as wide flung as intel to 3m what do you take out of all of this in terms of what to expect this year and how you think the

markets are going to shape up? >> yeah, no, absolutely. i would say thus far q4 earnings can be described as best mixed we have early days 22% of earnings reported for the s&p 500. about 70% of companies have exceeded earnings expectations, so we're somewhat in line with historical norms in terms of the percentage of beats. but when you look underneath the surface, we are seeing a bit of weakness in some serctors, financials is one of them. technology as well, all showing some signs of mixed results and overall we're seeing q4 earnings growth negative in the fourth quarter, so negative 1.5% or so year on year keep in mind, we weren't expecting all that much out of 2023 earnings in general in fact, flattish earnings growth overall, not much to write home about, but as we look toward 2024, the end of this year, the expectation is still for about a 12% earnings growth and part of that is just better

comps, somewhat weaker, flattish, 2023 we still think we could get probably a little bit of downward revision to that number, but still somewhere in the 5% to 10% earnings growth range. pretty healthy you think about it from a market perspective, markets driven by earnings growth and valuation expansion. so we're seeing the earnings growth component in place. valuation expansion we do see the potential in certain segments of the market and as we know, we got tremendous valuation expansion in parts of that tech magnificent seven trade last year. we're looking for the rest of the market to play some catch-up on that front as well. >> okay. which means you do what as an investor right now >> yeah, absolutely. so, we have talked about how last year was the trade of narrow leadership. really we had this barbell between cash and a.i. mag seven that led this s&p 500 to get a 24% return this year we may not see 24% again, but history is on our side

in fact, since 1990 there have been ten years where the s&p 500 has been higher by 20% plus nine out of ten years the following year has been positive and positive by an average of 13%. so history may not repeat itself, but we could be set up for potentially a positive year. we would say make sure in your portfolios that you're looking at a healthy balance of both growth and cyclical parts of the market u.s. and some international and then, of course, your bond market plays a bigger part of your portfolio as well so complementing some of that cd cash-like money with investment grade bonds makes a lot of sense here as well we say balance is a key theme in 2024 >> mona, thank you for joining us. >> thank you, becky. coming up, energy secretary jennifer granholm on the administration's plan to pause pending approvals for liquefied natural gas plans. we're going to talk about it with her lots of questions. controversy about it as well later, nba legend and three-time champion dwyane wade with us to discuss his latest

venture as host of a podcast and re much mo "squawk box" returns after this.

after tesla issued a warning about a potential slowdown in 2024 raised concerns about the state of the electric vehicle market in the u.s., joining us now is mark fields former ford motor company president and ceo and cnbc contributor i guess we had no idea about any potential problems until tesla said that mark i guess they meant if tesla says it, then there really is something happening here i guess that's kind of what we meant there. that was the latest -- it is a centipede or millipede and that was another one of the shoes to drop, but it didn't involve tesla. >> when you look at the ev market, you're starting to see the ev market, the growth in the

ev market acceleration slow down and for lack of a better term, if you look at the last year, you know, the market share of evs was up about 2.5 points versus the previous year but in the second half of the year, you saw that growth kind of slow down so, you know, not to say it is running out of gas, but you are starting to see as you go for mass adoption, that's a lot harder than early adoption and when you see some of the concerns from consumers around, you know, we talked about in the past around cost, and the charging network and repairs and insurance costs, i think one of the bigger things that emerged for consumers is the residual values because, you know, the -- they perform very poorly, evs overall on residual values a lot has to do with the price cuts that tesla took if a consumer thinks their vehicle is going to be worth a lot less, overlay that with, you know, a lot of new products coming into the market this year, which will increase the

number of ev offerings about 50%, you know, it is shaping up to be -- could be a very difficult year selling evs from a pricing standpoint and a market environment >> what we have seen is almost a perfect storm. it is one -- it is one shoe to drop after another and i want to go back to some of the decisions you made at hertz. did things really change and take us back you decided hertz was going to buy a lot of evs, the news recently that, you know, sort of shook everyone is that hertz back tracked on half of the purchase that it was going to make, because no one wants to rent an ev was that a big screwup on your part to order all those evs or did the dynamics change that much in the last couple of years? >> well, listen, joe, when we made that decision at hertz, we saw the ev market growing and we

made a -- as a company, we said, listen, being a mover and learning how to manage ev fleets is going to pay off for us over the long-term. we made a -- we were first movers we learned a lot but, listen, like any good business that lays out a strategy, when you see the market environment change and change pretty markedly, you have to make corrections. in this case, as you heard from the ceo at hertz, steve sheer, we saw demand less than we expected we saw repair costs higher but most importantly, you know, the biggest cost in the -- in a rental car company, as you know, is depreciation. and when your main supplier cuts prices 20%, which we haven't seen, you know, in recent automotive history, that hits our income in a really big way so, you know, the company made adjustments as they should but the bet is still the right one because you're going to continue to see evs over time

slower than everybody expected become more and more, you know, part of the industry, and, you know, hertz will be well positioned for that. they have to react to the market conditions >> being first mover, i worry that we have got an administration or government that decided it is going to be the first mover on this. and i think where we are right now, mark, could be the tip of the iceberg. and there may not -- there is a lot of things may not say solvent long enough to wait for that eventual all in transition to occur these emission standards, and number of evs that need to make up the percentage of how many vehicles are on the road, all these things are going to get pushed way back because you can lead a horse to water, but, consumers aren't drinking. they're not drinking and this could be the beginning of a really ugly period for investors and a lot of other

people that just went whole hog with the biden administration. >> well, joe, you know, we all know the track record of government picking technology that consumers are going to want it is not particularly good. they laid out regulations and they went out of their way to say, listen, we're not telling you what technology to use, but they knew very well with the regulations that they set in terms of fuel economy standards, that electrified vehicles were the only way that the automakers could achieve that i think, you know, at the end of the day from the consumer standpoint, joe, today as you get to mass adoption, the purchase of an ev is completely discretionary. and so when you lay over some of the concerns, you know, i mentioned a little earlier, you know, combined with an economy that is somewhat uncertain, you know, from a pricing standpoint it could be a tough year for selling evs. it is going to continue to grow, but automakers are going to have

to make a choice, do they potentially cut prices to stimulate demand, or do they live with undercapacity utilization at their plants? either way, that could hit their margins. >> real quick, one thing that elon musk said on his call which i think a lot of people were surprised -- not surprised about perhaps, maybe surprised he said it aloud, is that he believes that some of the chinese vehiclemakers, evmakers, are doing a much better job than the evs that are coming out of the united states. how much do you think this is a product problem? talk about the infrastructure issue in terms of charging stations and the like, but, you know, he's saying, look, it is tesla and the chinese companies and he was saying that without tariffs, the american automobile makers, if byd could flood the market and sell them at competitive prices >> clearly, andrew as you know, from the chinese evs, their cost

basis is significantly lower than western companies now, part of that is probably driven by government incentives because the chinese government, 15 years go, said, hey, listen, we missed out on being a leader in -- >> i'm not talking strictly about prices he's talking about the quality of the vehicles, the future set, just how good they are. >> they have absolutely upped their game on quality versus where they were 10, 15 years ago. it is a different level of quality. probably matching the western automakers the other thing, you think about the product content there, listen, chinese consumers, they really go from a digital first perspective. in their vehicles, they want the latest electronics, they want the latest, you know, digitally enabled features linked to their phones, et cetera. the u.s. consumers are somewhat different. but your point being and the point yesterday, listen, they have a big competitive advantage, and, you know, i

think one of the advantages that tesla has versus maybe some of the other western automakers is they're competing with the chinese on their home market when you're competing at the coal face with one of your toughest competitors, you become better overall, not only in that market, but around the world so i think this is going to play out really interestingly, you know, from a political standpoint from a tariff s standpoint in the u.s., the chinese upped their game in a big way with evs. >> mark, thank you good to have you on. you know who else, that ionic is a hyundai, my favorite electric car. >> the hyundai and the kia are on the same platform >> hyundai, rhymes with sunday. >> got it. coming up, we'll look at what is moving in the premarket, the futures now in, well, we're showing you green, we're talking about red, dow off seven points.

better than where we were. nasdaq off 58 points we're coming right back. we're talking energy with the secretary of energy in just a moment >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. which team did the detroit lions defeat to move on to the nfc championship in 1992 tus.quk x" when "sawbo rern oh, charades! - okay! - love it! umm... first word. - tonsillitis! - nostril! uh-uh... bill! uh-huh... - hip-hop! - limping! mmhmm! medical bills! uh-huh! - pancakes! - cash! who pays you cash when you have medical bills? grrr! no idea. [tapping] gap! the gap left by health insurance? who pays cash to help close that gap? aflac! oh, aflac! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com pictionary?! i know what it's like to perform through pain. if you're like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help.

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>> announcer: the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what team did the detroit lions defeat to move on to the nfc championship in 1992 the answer, the dallas cowboys the final was 38-6 and was the last time the lions made it this far in the postseason. all right, welcome back to "squawk box. i'm dominic chu. let's get you caught up on the big earnings movers of the morning. we start with the big drop in shares of intel which are down roughly 11% over a million shares of premarket trading volume after the computer chipmaker posted better than expected profits and revenues. its current quarter forecast for both measures came in well below street expectations. intel saw a 10% sales decline in the data center and artificial

intelligence division last quarter but expects to see the total market for personal computing to expand later on this year. next, visa, the credit card payment processor giant is down, around 10,000 shares of volume after it too reported better than expected profits and revenues helped along by stronger consumer spending which led to gains in both payments volume and process transactions. visa shares had hit a record high as you can see here, just earlier this week, a little bit of a pullback there. sticking with financial related companies, shares of american express, dow components, up roughly now at this point, 3%. just around 50,000 shares of volume the financial services company actually reporting, yes, better than expected profits and revenues that both came in well below consensus estimates. they were driven in part by a decision to set aside more money for possible bad loans in the future it still forecast full year earnings that came in above estimates. and it is going to raise its dividend by 17% to 70 cents per

share per quarter. we'll end with a bonus mover on analyst call coinbase higher by 4.5% at this point, 230,000 shares of volume, helped by oppenheimer upgrading to outperform from perform they put a $160 price target on based on tailwinds from the bitcoin spot exchange, better risk reward set up given the 35% drop we have seen from recent highs there. becky, keep an eye on coinbase back over to you >> dom, i was looking through, trying to figure out why the dow is doing as well as it is because you got intel shares that are down pretty significantly. that decline of 10%. that's only adding 37 points downward pressure to the dow american express adding 36 points of positive power and that's why you don't see a bigger decline right now dom, we'll check in with you later. when we come back, we have energy secretary jennifer granholm joining us on the white

house's announcement that it is pausing approvals for eleliquef natural gas plants look at the futures. dow futures only down by 5 points right now p wny futures off by 53 s&do b2. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. the biden administration temporarily pausing and now pending decisions on the export of liquefied natural gas new export facilities that do not yet have a permit from the energy department will now be on hold during the pause. officials will evaluate the impacts of lng exports on energy costs, energy security and the environment. this new move does not affect current exports or previously permitted facilities that have begun construction joining us now is energy secretary jennifer granholm. good morning to you. we have been talking about this all morning. and trying to understand the rational behind it a lot of folks looking at this and saying that, you know, exports -- exporting lng has been a great thing for the united states. >> yeah, we are the world's largest exporter now of lng. but we have a responsibility at the department of energy to ensure that all the authorizations are in the public

interest, according to the natural gas act. and in order to fulfill that responsibility, since this -- since the sort of boom -- shale boom and exports lng have begun, we have undertaken a periodic assessment of what the lay of the land is. the last assessment, though, was done in 2018, and we at that time we were only exporting 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas, which is a fraction of what we're doing now. now we're, today, we're exporting 14 billion cubic feet. we have another 12 billion cubic feet that are under construction and a total of 48 billion cubic feet that have been authorized so, none of that is going to be affected all the stuff that is under construction that has been authorized, none of that has gone away. the stuff that is being currently exported, there is no impact but, it is -- we have a

responsibility given how much we have authorized and given the lay of the land across the globe, the climate impacts as well as the question about what is the cost going to be at home. if we're exporting half of what we produce, what is the price impact for those who -- >> let's talk about that so, i think there is a question, mark, is -- is it this about the climate? is this -- some people say is it about politics is this about price? do you actually think by doing this you're going to lower the price back here in the united states what is the -- you see the various issues here at play? >> there are various issues and there are several factors that we have taken into account on these assessments and we need to update the data associated with the factors. so the factors are, does this impact -- what is the impact on national security, what is the impact on foreign policy what is the impact, in other

words, allies and whether they're able to access the energy that they need, what is the impact on the price at home, what is the impact on the climate. and so what we need to -- >> that can't be done without -- without pausing? i think that's the other question some people look at lng specifically and they say, look, this is a cleaner form of energy, in fact, when it is exported, oftentimes it is replacing energy that might be produced by coal, which is a lot dirtier. >> it is a good question that's one of the things we have to evaluate. this is a temporary pause for the purpose of doing an assessment, which will be done in leadership by our national labs this is not an indefinite pause. it will last some months, there will be a comment period >> madam secretary, will it last until november 5th that's what people are saying. you know the young voters, the climate is front and center. and the cynics of this on the other side say this is pure

politicking, that president biden needs young voters, and this -- you can see the comments from the climate lobby, this is, like, you know, they're celebrating and, you know, toasting the biden administration for this pause. and it looks no -- you don't really -- if you're cynical, you don't need to look beyond that it is politicking. >> i understand the cynics say what the cynics are going to say. we're following the law. and the natural gas act, the department of energy is required to assess what is in the public interest we need to update our assessments. >> i don't disagree with the idea of trying to reassess every couple of years where things are. i think there is a question mark really more about the -- can you walk and chew gum at the same time idea? to say, you know, what prevents the department from doing that assessment without a pause while the assessment is going on >> well, there are 13 projects in the queue, between the department of energy and ferc,

the federal energy regulatory commission those projects account for another 12 billion cubic feet. we need to, as we assess, we need to make sure we're applying the same sort of standard to those that are in the queue to those coming up in the future. the pause would make no difference whatsoever because none of the projects would be exporting natural gas. none of the projects that are in queue would be exporting natural gas because they would have to be constructed that would take years and years. nothing will change in terms of what is currently being exported, what is currently under construction this is just a pause so we can have an assessment, that is rationally based and then apply that assessment to those projects that are in the queue. >> secretary granholm, will the department of defense be involved in this at all? i only ask because one of the reasons we have been so pleased

about this exporting of lng is that we are able to come to the rescue of some of our allies in europe, you think of germany, what happened with russia, then cutting them off from their natural gas t this is a huge thing that we can supply our allies with the natural gas. who else gets a say on this? >> yeah, and we will continue to do that. and we have projects in the queue that are being constructed that will add to what we're already doing. national security is one of the considerations we make in these assessments. so we will certainly consult with our folks at the state department at the department of defense, really important that we stay strong with our allies we also have to take a look, consider this, our allies have also made commitments about reducing their dependence on natural gas. if we have authorized already enough to meet the world's demand, just in the united states by 2015, which is roughly

what models said, that the global demand by 2050 will be about 52 billion cubic feet, if that still stands, we will have -- we will have provided the entire world with enough lng, not to mention all the other folks that are coming online it is important for us to consider why all these countries are saying that they want to shift away from fossil fuels because, of course, of climate change and so what -- how do we evaluate what countries have put into place in terms of their own demand for natural gas is there going to be that level of demand for natural gas? we are also really -- we learned a lot about how to curb methane emissions. we have learned a lot about how to stop leaks and leaks in transportation and we're recruiting other countries to make sure they commit to a

global methane pledge. we want to take that into account as well. so, we -- it is very important for us to be close with our allies and ensure that they have the energy security that they need >> your comments on our show, we have a business audience, i'm sure you wouldn't cater your comments, but they're very measured and, you know, you bring up a lot of reasons other than climate change for why you're doing this. if you look at the way the president is selling it, and he basically said, you know, this is the -- an attempt to tackle the existential crisis of our time, and activists are hailing the decision as a landmark crisis that shows that industries will no longer just get a blank okay to proceed with building oil and gas products, a powerful statement we can no longer allow the industries to continue operating

and that harkens back to president biden's campaign vow to put the fossil fuel business out of business and he said read my lips, we will put fossil fuels out of business. >> i did not hear him say that i think -- >> just look at youtube. >> we all do there should be a managed transition that fossil fuels are not going away in the immediate. that is why the focus -- the u.s. has been such a leader in making sure that -- >> how long do you think, madam secretary? do you think -- just give me an outside. do you think it is 50 years or 5 years? if you're pausing now, it assumes that we're going to be able to transition in, like, five or ten years. there are people that say it is going to be at least 50 years for the global economy to be able to operate. it can't operate without fossil fuels. you can't get fossil fuels without infrastructure >> i am -- we are working every day at the department of energy

to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. and that means making sure we manage carbon emissions, we reduce carbon emissions, we have the technology associated with that the oil and gas industry, many are stepping up to the plate in that the reason why people say that by 2050 we will get to net zero is because there is a recognition that there will need to still be, and this is not just me saying this, this is the science from the international panel and climate change, that there will still be some use of fossil fuels but can we manage the additions, eliminate the emissions and that's really a very important strategy that the u.s. has taken. >> one final question, and it relates to evs in a meaningful way. about consumer demand and what we're seeing, there has been a big push from government, and frankly i think we thought from the market place for evs and what that would ultimately do to the interest of oil and what not, however, there is clearly a

slowdown taking place and we're seeing it, by the way, tesla stock is down even as a result of -- that's probably been successful, we can all agree, evmaker in the world and yet it is getting harder even for them. and so, the question is what is that about is that an infrastructure problem? is that a market problem are the products that the other automakers are making not good enough and if that's the case, what do you have to do >> yeah, i think it is several things one is the price of evs has been higher now kelly blue book just assessed that last year alone the price of evs dropped 23% so they're now relatively on par with new internal combustion engines. that price issue is continuing to move in the direction of the consumer it is not quite there yet. the tax incentives and the state tax incentives combined make that even more irresistible.

but it is a confusing tax incentive market the dealers have to take on a lot of educating of folks to be able to apply those tax incentives at the dealership people are to where if you lease a vehicle, the more restrictive tax incentives don't apply and so you can really take advantage of that. and, of course, it is an infrastructure issue people have anxiety. that's why we have been so focused on increasing the number of charging stations across the country. we expect to get to 500,000 charging stations across the country by 2026. >> secretary granholm, appreciate it very much. thank you for discussing this with all of us. still to come, from all that to nba hall of famer danwye wade "squawk box" continues after the break.

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welcome back, everybody. you know him for his prowess on the basketball court but our next guest is a successful businessman and author a movie

producer, philanthropist and much, much more. now dwyane wade is adding podcaster to his resume teaming up with iheart podcast about a week ago launching "the why with dwyane wade" featuring intimate conversations with pioneers in in sports, fashion and business and more pleased to have with us three-time nba champion dwyane wade thanks for coming in. >> good morning. y'all get up like this every day. >> trying to take our you are -- you got a whole roundtable. >> yeah. had a roundtable with dirk and tony and paol. later in the day a lot of media my breakain was woke i appreciate it. podcasts people are getting into it and i wanted to get into it at this time in my life and talk

about people's "whys?" it's the why we dwyane wade and another double entendre. people misspelled my name. it's the y before the a i wanted to claim my y in my name >> and is it because the curiosity factor trying to figure out what makes people successful, what makes them greatest of all-time >> yes playing basketball my entire life and i went to school in the middle of playing basketball my education, you know, probably is greater in the game of basketball than anything else. so my greatest tool and greatest schooling right now is other people's experience. you know, one of my professors i say right now in business school name's ryan smith. one of my professors, because we're business partners, but i'm learning so much from him. i look at him, if i was in school, this would be a professor that really helped and guided me. so, yes. learning from others, learning from their experiences is how i

gain my knowledge as well. >> a lot of people learn from you, too i don't know if everyone realizes you went to harvard and completed a program there on business and sports and entertainment. >> yes. >> and there's actually a case study on dwyane wade where everybody learns through you what's in that case study? >> i believe that case study, i went to harvard for a program run by one of the most amazing teachers anita. one of the case studies was dealing with one of my, with a company, dealing with that that partnership. did i do the right thing what should i have done, also covered i think my shoe deal at the time i signed a shoe deal, my own brand. dealt with that. cool to go back in different years, sit in a classroom, hear what students have to say. what they would have done differently. should have done. >> what did you learn?

>> that everyone has their own way into business and into thinking how to structure deals. it's not all the same. >> so far what's the best deal you made and what's been the biggest mistake and lesson of it >> the best deal i've made well, in retirement? or in life >> in life we'll take life. >> the best deal i've made is to, when i was a kid i talked to the big guy and told him who i was going to be, if my family ever got out of the, the crisis that we were in. that's the best deal i made with the big guy, and trying to hold that to be true in all the things that my family stands for. all the things we do in the community. the best deal i've made, but in retirement, able to have relationships with, like i said, ryan smith, to be a part of the utah jazz can and a part of salt lake and utah royals all of these places teaching me a lot about different industries in sports i played but i maybe don't know the other side. one of the best things i've opibeen in so far.

>> the worst deal you've made. a lot of time it's people learn more from their mistakes than their successes's what's a deal that maybe you learned something the hard way >> been on the court my life sued in my life. had a couple failed restaurant ventures that dealt, led me in court for lawsuits, but really not doing my due diligence not having the right people around me to protect me from the vultures of the world. so i've done bad deals things i've learned from that's led to me in court. so -- >> when was that deal that you -- were you in high school when you made the deal with the big guy to -- was it being -- was it about being a great basketball player? or just about being a great person what was the deal you made what was it you wanted to be >> i was -- my sister and i, when i was young between 5 to 8 years old we shared a bed. lived in chicago, illinois

every night she would tell me to pray ask god for what i wanted. always it would be direct. accident for what i wanted, be the one to have my family get out of the community we were in. in the midst of that, if you do this, big guy, these are the things i'm going to do and i've tried to hold those pillars true in the midst of going through life and learning life >> basketball, i mean, obviously, helped you avoid a lot of the -- your goals made a lot of the, the trouble kids get into, you can't do that, if you're going to be a -- >> yes. >> was it basketball or just success? how do we repeat this again and again and again for kids >> well, i mean, basketball was my journey it's a great journey obviously every kid won'thave the same opportunity, you know and the community i come from, i think -- you talked about my production company and right now we have, we have barbara littlerock. >> just got an oscar nod, by the

way. nomination for this, unbelievable. >> i so appreciate it. my company, we highlighting a part, but the story is where you can make change, and i think if you follow the stories, following a young man named arlo washington about creating opportunities. about building community, and to build community you have to build people to build people you need capital. so just understanding that in my community, everyone can't make it to the nba, but if we can do what arlo washington is doing, build our community. >> a community -- >> yes so i just thought amazing. a man who's providing opportunities to individuals through barber school opening up a nonprofit loan fund to be able to build his community through people that's how we get to that change. >> how did you find him? >> he found me let's say that. the producer is christine, and john, people are understanding that he built 5th and prayer and

everything we want to be a part of and accomplish. reminded me growing up in robbins, illinois where i grew up it's the same act, just in a different place. so i really wanted to highlight this injustice, you know, going on in our communities when it comes to the wealth gap. >> dwyane wade, thank you so much for coming in we appreciate it it's really been a pleasure. >> how far is marquette doing? >> all the way >> you went to the final four. right? >> yes it's time for us to -- >> do it again. >> to do it again. >> thank you. >> thank y. gat to see you. "squawk box" will be right back. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand... in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want, when they want it. (jen) now we're even smarter

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in a nissan pathfinder, the search is the adventure. (♪♪) good morning futures in the red ahead of the opening bell this morning. major averages higher for the week and looking to score their 12th positive week in the last 13 watching closely the next 30 minutes. due to get a new batch of breaking inflation data. plus, caught up on earnings from american express the dow component rising on solid q1 profit guidance full details on that and a so much more as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here along

cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin and started out pretty big negative numbers, really from a lot of the, from intel at this point, losses have been narrowed to some eck tent down to about 16 on the dow nasdaq, you can see, taking it on the chin a little more. down about 60. treasuries, interesting that they really didn't back up too much after -- that gdp number yesterday. roger altman hey, roger roger's here shouldn't have said that we're going to tease people that you're here. now they know. i ruined it. guest to you in a second been a while. >> you're welcome. >> take a look at earnings result that came in this morning. fourth quarter results out from american express earlier this morning. earnings and revenue missing the street's expectations for the current quarter, but amex is forecasting full-year earnings $12.65 to $13.15 well above the street's

expectations street at $12.41 ahead of this the company is projecting a range of revenue growth of 9% to 11% above consensus, too amex raising dividend by 17% to 70 cents a share i spoke to the company's chair saying amex looking at strong spending number up 9% restaurants within that up 11% in part raising guidance full year 0, and higher quality credit card members. stock up by about 2.5% >> okay. meantime, getting ready for this hour, new inflation data back to the broader markets. joining us evercore founder and senior chairman roger altman good morning. >> good morning. >> trying to assess the economy, where things are you try to assess confidence i think in the boardroom given the conversations you have with ceos we are we, -- where are we, rea?

>> what i think is fascinating is how wrong the consensus on big things has been over the past year, starting with inflation. where originally, when it surged the view was this is transitory. it will self-correct jay powell himself espoused that then as it surged further, that view was were discarded and the fed, tightest monetary tightening in 40 years now looks it was transitory just a somewhat longer period, including that tightening of monetary policy may have had no impact why inflation has come down then recession six to final in months ago at least, majority of ceos in surveys thought we'd have a recession. now, we don't have it, and the most recent data is amazing, and the outlook for 2024 seems to be slower growth, but no recession. and so that's off the table. then, of course, china two years ago, three years ago,

unstoppable klcolossus state interference, excessive, no growth. >> making an argument why were the public think the elites know nothing? >> arguably, they do know nothing. including me i was wrong on all of those things, but -- >> i was wrong on a lot of them, too. >> it's fascinating, humbling in its testimony for the unpredictability of this incredibly complicated global knack crowe and financial market environment that we're in. and the consensus now for a slower, steady growth. >> right. >> perfect for the white house the right consensus, who knows maybe it is. maybe it isn't >> to the extent that you think that -- i don't know i don't know if -- when you talk about ceo confidence, when you talk to leaders, do you think that they have any better sense of it? you see people who actually put money to work orb. >> they do, because they know

their own business so so. >> what are you hearing on that front? >> more confidence because the business outlook is better than they thought again, most thought we'd see a recession and now, just like everybody else they don't see that are feeling better seeing good earnings p&g earnings really strong and bellwether, american express results impressive confidence is up generally speaking, when confidence is up, ceos, some of them, look externally inner its of thinking of things they can do, because when confidence is down they focus inward. >> and tonight the fed did go up 500 basis points even fb they didn't cure inflation, we need ammo for next time there's a slowdown? right? need it to normalize rates and able to do it without causing a landal of any kind. >> give them credit. they deserve credit. >> gravy you're not saying they didn't have to do that? >> not at all.

i don't know about you guys. i certainly would have tried to do the same thing if i were responsible for monetary policy. >> you don't give them credit for monitoring -- >> i give them credit. i don't their it's fair fighting monetary policy is the reason inflation came down. >> all of our assumptions, sacred cow how many of them -- sacred but not necessarily right. right? >> increasingly they're not right. because of the complexity. and i mean, look we live in, for example, unbelievable velocity of capital around the world inner its of the finance and financial markets. >> yes. >> and -- very unstable geopolitical environment >> we felt we had to raise unemployment to harness inflation and it doesn't look like it has anything to do -- >> 22 straight months unemployment below 4%. hasn't happened in 30 or 40 years. >> a sacred cow. >> slaughtered all thinking. >> a really good point that was like -- you know,

monetary policy 101. >> on a -- moses -- >> labor markets listen. unemployment -- >> so much the supply chain and issues left over from the pandemic. >> why you've seen the cea, h & r bernstein saying correctly i think, so much supply chain related and now self-corrected. >> are we going to say in retrospect the energy markets will be what will keep up in real trouble with inflation down the road especially if these geopolitical concerns continue >> depends how the geopolitical factors play out i mean, step back and watching your granholm interview, you know, the american energy sector is amazing it's just amazing. i mean, we're the world's largest oil producer now the world's largest lng

exporter. >> you wouldn't pause, would you? >> i wouldn't, no. and -- i'm a big fan of the energy sector. just think the entrepreneurship, technology, level of enterprise is amazing >> oh. sorry. >> and -- oil prices i think are so unpredictable you know, suddenly if the situation in the red sea gets much worse, they'll go up. right? >> right. >> roger, can i ask you one political question >> sure. >> as a long-time democrat that you've been, as you look at the enthusiasm or lack of enthusiasm for president biden, among the business community, i remember listening to bill ackman, a long-time democrat voted that way, just a couple weeks ago on our air said he might even be open for voting for president trump. do you think president biden would ever tinker around the edges around some of these business issues? i do think the business community looks at maybe this lng position or some of the other things that have taken place, and that it might make

the enthusiasm gap, if you will, larger it may very well be the gamble is hat, you know, president trump, former president trump, you know, is going to worry so many democrats the view, they'll all come out in force anyway doesn't matter what you do and you have to lead as progressive as possible to get the younger voter out there. i'm just, how do you think about that calculus but for the business community >> well, first of all here we are almost in february the election only nine months off. i don't think historically if you look back you would say to yourself the business community is going to be an important constituency for the result on the first tuesday of november. actual voting. so i doubt that it's a priority for the white house in terms of, oh, we have to work on the business community, and try to get more support. >> from a money perspective, more money than anybody. >> and he'll have all the money he needs the election, may win, may lose, but not on account of money.

so i don't expect to see major moves towards the business community. i think the white house is sensitive to some -- in the business commune at best and would like to see it better. i don't think a huge issue issue is for biden, turnout. he has a serious challenge there. on the other side it's going to be the so-called trump ceiling with, first couple of primaries. >> before you get -- told me we have to wrap if it wasn't overspending by the fed and by the biden administration, or bistic iffal authorities that caused the inflation, if it was just -- supply chain, then can we just -- there was nothing? >> no. it wasn't -- it was the pandemic that caused it. >> did the fed not overstimulate? did we not stay too long at the party and spend too much at $33 trillion or both of manageable?

>> two different questions i don't think the fed was responsible for this inflation secondly, i think u.s. fiscal policy is off track billtime and there will be a correction. >> for a long time. >> and eth aer happen voluntarily or involuntarily. >> i want to see who's coming up. >> the pandemic caused the inflation. >> these next few guests better be awful damn good they telling us to wrap. >> roger, thank you. >> thank you, guys. when we come back we do have breaking inflation data coming up at 8:30 a.m. eastern time up next the white house announcing a pause on pending decisions of liquefied natural gas exports. brian sullivan joins us on the impact of that decision. we'll be right back. marriage. kids. college. kids moving back in after college. (applause) finally, we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna... ♪ and then we looked around and said, "wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller!" (laughter) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mm-hmm. cool!

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nothing will change in terms of what is currently being exported or what is currently under construction this is just a pause so that we can have an assessment that is rationally based and then apply

that assessment to those projects that are in the queue >> that was energy secretary jennifer granholm with us last hour this morning the white house paused pending approvals of exports from new liquefied natural gat projects and brian sullivan joins us now on the impact of the move i don't want to assume what you are thinking about all of this, bri. i can almost see, you know, if we wanted to keep it here. i think that never works because it's fungible. it's a global market but i can see how we might want to, you know, not necessarily export too much. but that's not the reason for this i think we really understand what's going on here, but the secretary sort of came knowing what our audience is at cnbc soft pedaled it. that's not the way the president sold it. >> no. i think the guys -- listen, i spoke last night, late last night, with people and sources

inside the white house, inside the energy department, inside the former energy department, and we don't know how this is all going to play out now. it depends kind of who you're listening to, pretty much everybody i spoke with said this was the administration kind of needing to give, get a win, get a headline, and a lot of headlines are out there today by the way. no script. add that to everybody. so a big win on the climate side get your headline, sort of the white house pushing back against big oil, fossil fuels, on lng exports and, therefore, sort of get that win on the climate side a. the question, though, joe, is, how much of an impact does this really have or will it really have that's up in the air because i spoke with other people who said the headline's a big deal, but this action may not be that big of a deal, because it only applies to certain terminals in the approval process the majority of terminals we have built or that are currently

under construction will not be impacted i thought it was impactful that the energy secretary in her interview admitted we are at 12 to 14 million metric tons per day export and we are going to 26 so even with this "pause" joe, there is a doubling of u.s. natural gas exports, which sources inside the white house say made germany calm down once they realized we're still going to grow our exports mightily over the next couple of years. >> that, you know, you just made me think that the method in the madness of the biden administration that they could pretend -- they can throw a bone to the, you know, the climate lobby, which is loud and, you know, getting crazier. they throw paint on art at the louvre their nuts parts of that movement they throw them a bone and nothing's really happening they're not really hurting the

industry. >> yeah, well, think about it. in fact, again, secretary granholm said this i want to put this into context, guys i'm not supporting or unsupporting any administrational addition, but look back at it. if i said to you, joe, three and a half years ago that in january of 2024 the united states would be the number one oil exporter -- not only exporter. oil producer, not in the world now, ever. the united states producing more oil today than any country in the history of the world, and we are the number one u.s. lnger rt title. if i had said that to you, joe, three and a half years ago you would have looked at me, sullivan, it's only 8:15 in the morning. what have you been drinking? >> price does a lot to help that what were we supposed to think, put the fossil fuel business, fossil fuels out of business what were we supposed to think one of the craziest things,

brian, that the cleanest way to power the grid, to power anything, is probably natural gas. when we ship it over there, or export it, it's to displace, supplant coal. the whole thing is -- but november 5th is coming that's what it's about. >> well, listen, again i want to -- you saw all of those trips we took to europe on these barges and luckily the worst predictions didn't come true the weather has actually been very mild for two years in germany. blessed, lucky, by mother nature i wanted to express it'magnitudf demand from europe nordstrom blown up, had to replace 155 million or billion cubic feet of natural gas per year that is in plain layman's terms about 1,500 additional lng tankers, or about four per day you need four new tankers filled

with natural gas to come from somewhere, qatar, the u.s., and russia, because russia never stopped exporting lng to fill that hole. germany's got to get it somewhere. from us or from qatar or from russia or, i'll go, you're going to burn coal to meet that energy hole. >> yeah. i would say it's a little -- a couple really mild winters, which saved germany. maybe that's from the fossil fuels, brian trying to figure out how all of that works you know anyway, brian, thanks. good to have you with us see you tonight? >> yes coming up, breaking pce inflation data next, live to hawaii six months after the devastating wildfires tracking aid money raised. jane, what it's on tap this

morning? >> good morning, guys. yeah a lot of money coming in but a lot of recovery left up next, going to look at where some of the money is going and eme huge problem that it can't se to fix. when "squawk" comes back. wealth-changing question -- are you keeping as much of your investment gains as possible? high taxes can erode returns quickly, so you need a tax-optimized portfolio. at creative planning, our money managers and specialists work together to make sure your portfolio and wealth are managed in a tax-efficient manner. it's what you keep that really matters. why not give your wealth a second look? book your free meeting today at creativeplanning.com. creative planning -- a richer way to wealth.

just about six months ago devastating wildfires ripped across the island of maui in hawaii hundreds of millions of dollars of aid flowed in

jane wells is tracking that money, and joins us right now. hi, jane >> reporter: hi, becky yeah the fire zone remains closed off though we'll be escorted in later this morning by the u.s. army corps of engineers, which sent photos. just got in there now to start clearing debris nearly six months after the fire killed 100 people, destroyed thousands of homes and businesses we wanted to follow the money. honolulu civil beat running a tally reporting nearly $1 billion raised or allocated so far for fire victims half from the government on the nonprofit side, maui strong said they've taken in $178 million as of mid-january disbursed about half the corporate side, $1.5 million in grants and goods from walmart which opened its doors and parking lot in maui after the fire. >> we gave away containers of merchandise at least one full container of ice and at least one full container of rice. >> reporter: now, thousands of

people who lost their homes are still living in hotels 1,000 of them at the royal lahaina resort including 100 of its own employees. the hotel could make a lot more money from tourists but plans to stick with fema and the red cross and house locals for the foreseeable future. >> for the associates and people that are displaced, i mean, they want to move back. they want to move back to their land, but how do they do that? it's not an overnight fix. it's going to take time. >> reporter: and some of them have left hawaii now the government is offering top dollar for short-term rental owners in this area to convert to long-term leases, and enough have not stepped up yet and if they don't by march 1st the governor is threatening to ban airbnbs. becky, housing here is always a problem, but right now it's a crisis. >> jane, a lot of talk at the time about money that was promised by celebrities, too has that come through? >> reporter: yeah.

we've been -- trying to track that take a look. guy feehorry raised over $2.5 million. reached out where it's gone, haven't heard back oprah and the rock tell me through january paid out $50 million in $1,200 a month stipends people said we've gotten the money. love oprah had it since september jeff bezos and others, lauren, sanchez. gone to the maui food bank, humane society and i have confirmed with those organizations they've received money. >> jane, this is, i mean, seems like such a long time. how does this match up to other natural disasters we've seen, in terms of recovering? >> reporter: you know, i've covered a lot of disasters, and recovery on the mainland is much faster than here this is a small area every square foot is sacred and

cultural there are competing interests. and nothing gets done quickly. it's going to take years and a lot of money, and the concern is that many people who grew up here will leave here and that's part of the magic of hawaii. it's not just a beautiful place. it's the people and the culture. >> it is heartbreaking, the scenes we've seen. jane, thank you for bringing attention to it on how they continue to rebuild and we hope you can keep us informed with updates. jane wells. approach ing december and watching futures dow futures down by 61 points. a big part of that what we've heard from dow components visa and intel overy night putting pressure on things looks lie right now nasdaq off by 66. dow futures down by 50 s&p futures down 3.5 and keeping track what's happening with

treasury market. ahead of that, last we checked, ten year i think settles in right around -- yeah 4.1% still two year yielding just above 4.4 per4. -- 4.3% number key with the cme. rick santelli take it away. >> personal income and all embedded inflation numbers within on the income side. expecting up 0.3%. delivered exactly up 0.3%. now, if we look at spendinging, up 0.7%. definitely stronger than expectations malt pli stronger than 0.2 in the rearview mirror. to find a higher number you have to go back to january of 2023. now, look at real spending adjusted for inflation it's up half of 1% better than expected and better than the rearview mirror by

0.2% and last time we were up half of 1% in thigs spending category july finding a higher number, january 2023 up 1% now get into the pce numbers month over month deflator up 0.2. month over month deflator up 0.2% a bit of a jump from minus 0.1% last month but it is expected. due keep in mind we have minus 0.1% last month, lowest since april of 2020. now we move back up to 0.2%, counts to september up 0.4%. take the pce deflator go long ball year over year up 2.6. exactly as expected. exactly at in the rearview mirror, and it is the lowest level since feb of 2021 a knowledging same as last month really takes it back continues to be pretty good

news look at core numbers pce core deflator month over month up 0.2 0.1 higher than last look but matches expectations finally year over year core deflator, expected to be up 0.3. up 0.1 less. up 2.9 and it is 0.3 below the s sequential 2.9 lowest level going back to -- wow. we're going back a ways here 2.9 takes us to -- march of 2021. so these, indeed, better numbers. had a couple sticky ones you can see, there's been a two-way trade. traded under h410. hover's 414. a few metrics warmer give you interesting facts on ten year ten year yesterday closed at

412. last friday it closed at 412 so we're starting to see a consolidation, and we want to pay very close attention to which side of 412 we close on today, because 2024 has been an up year for rates. remember, closed last year 3.88, unchanged from the previous year becky, back to you. >> all right rick, stay with us we've got a panel to talk more about this new inflation data. for that we bring in ej antonee, heritage economist and employee america executive director and our own steve liesman. steve, start with you. what do you find in these details? >> consumer keeps on keeping 0.7 surprise to the upside and positive on inflation adjusted basis. as is income barely so. just 0.1% come down from the november real income gains the pce's headed the right way headline unchanged but i think

for the first time maybe -- i don't know if it's time for the party hats or no pot gazoos who whole. handle on the core headed in the right direction. while others are talking i will find the index number and calculate the three and six month number my kguess. below 2% on a six month annualized basis good growth here, government has a problem, declining inflation there. what do you do fund rate right or does it need to come down if so, by how much >> not a bad problem to have, i'd say relative of to other problems we've seen. >> right. >> what do you think about this? ub ins are better than had been expected >> yeah. seen more progress on inflation. this really shows more progress on core inflation specifically than we're seeing year over year readings on core inflation on the fed's gauges fall below 3% still more progress to go.

steve highlighted also, especially the last three, six, even nine months now seeing inflationary low if not below 2% fed looking for validation of this in the coming, especially january around the calendar year especially volatile, but if inflation is normalizing especially a labor market looks more in balance, certainly a motivation fed can and should be looking to normalize interest rate soon possibly as soon as march. >> wow that would be soon ej, you agree with that? >> not at all. if you look at only securities held outright by the fed, yes, it appears like we're still tightening and going to be, going to continue to be in this disinflationary trend, but unfortunately all of the other data is pointing the other way you know, we're talking about how the consumer keeps on keeping on, but i mean, this is all just entirely fueled by debt it's amazing what 800 billion dollars in new federal debt can

get you. apparently it can get you about $300 billion worth of gdp growth the idea that this is in anyway sustainable, i don't see how that in anyway can decline up with the facts bank reserves growing for about a year now that's been fueling the s&p. as you continue to watch things like the reverse repurchase agreement market, you see money moving out of sterilization. it's being used to fund these massive auctions by the treasury so i just don't see how we can possibly continue to have these lower inflation rates. i mean, may they continue for another month or two sure after that, i think we'll be right back on the roller coaster. >> and what's the fed look at? you're bringing up the same questions that was said. cutting rates in march, does that seem plausible to you at this point >> i don't think so. i think that the fed's going to want more in the way of backing.

i did calculate, got to the three-month annualized rate. 1.5 after a 2.16 rate the prior month, becky so it has come their way said this a lot of times, i think. fed is using a paradigm of the 1970s where the feeling was they cut back too soon. now, i think a lot of differences with the '70s that maybe don't, make the analogy not hold up so well. it's twin peaks. look at cpi over the period from 1974, say, through 1980 you see it goes up, comes back down, comes back up. it's their fear they don't want to reverse course or make a mistake. i think what there is, becky, in an between thing market has an aggressive rate path built in and the fed i think will be less aggressive. always said sort of like the may meeting makes a lot of sense to me can have a lot of data in place

and go every other meeting to go more cautiously. >> rick, the market still thinks rate cuts are coming what do you think? as somebody who's watched treasury markets for so long and so closely, somebody who's participated in all of this? >> the march meeting might as well be in the year 3000 to me, drawing significant conclusions. this far in front of the march meeting, say that since the market is looking for it, the fed's going to deliver it. i think that's a mistake now, if it was two weeks before the meeting, okay? maybe a different story. i think that's where you're going to start to see as you get closer and closer, that the market's going to probably give you a more accurate perception of what investor think you want to be agnostic with the numbers, come on .7 on spending, all read about what credit card debt is doing a. b., look at the three areas, okay, there's seven numbers that imka out today, and i only

basically saw one that was inflation friendly okay whether you looked at the pce deflator month over month, up 0.3. year over year unchanged not 2% looked at core month over month, 1.10 higher. only core year over year were was lower. anything with a core in front of it after today, seeing the biden administration getting, shooting their toes off again regarding energy, like their comments when they first took office threw the industry in a tizzy makes no sense. anything with the word "core" in front of it will make people scratch their heads a bit because a lot of policies in place won't be friendly to non-core inflation metrics in the years ahead. >> scott, let me have you respond. >> the fed has time to evaluate this and i agree that maybe march, might be june depending what we learn in inflation data.

i flag january especially, which data comes 0 uts out in februare fed will understand how much of the last six or three months artifact of seasonality or what is fundamental at this point increasing signs there is fundamental disinflation in place. the fed separates at 5.33% with understanding core inflation, headline ins flation stuck around 3.5 or 4% especially looking at their policy rules getting more evidence that while maybe some of the disinflation is transitory, maybe some of what's going on may reverse, getting further away from that closer to 2% again, inflation normalization, probably justifies at least some interest rate normalization especially getting more evidence of it. i think march, may, june, we can debate that now, learn more over the coming six to eight weeks. >> thank you all >> thank you coming up after this, talk

more about the new inflation data jusgowit t th economist and author judy shelton. "squawk box" returns after this. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's different formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond.

coming up, inside the new inflation data what 2 could mean for the fed as central bank's next meeting approaches "squawk box" is coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. december pce inflation matching expectations up 0.2% month over month. year over year growth rate fell below 3% joining us now to talk about this, and, surprisingly strong gdp number judy shelton senior fellow at the independent institute. judy, welcome. good to see you. i'm going to set the scene i'm a scene setter roger altman was on. said we figured out it was transitory all along maybe the fed didn't have to go up 500 basis points, but good they did, because to normalize rates, but even those increases didn't hurt the economy, which means unemployment didn't have to go up for inflation to come down that's been a longstanding thesis of yours. in fact, unemployment on its low actually helps inflation.

how's that >> well, i appreciate your framing it that way, because i have not been one of those economist who kept predicting recession. i have been saying that low unemployment is not inherently inflationary economic growth especially if it's productive is not inherently inflationary. and so i've always thought it was really a matter of not cutting off growth and trying to suppress demand, but rather allowing supply to eq equallibriate. problem with the fed now, to maintain credibility they really have to disavow the former model, which said they had to have restrictive rates they had to impose high interest rates, to cut off growth, to risk higher unemployment, and to

suppress demand. turned out that was not necessary, and in spite of the high rates, and go to your point whether those are really high or not. supply came through. so that speaks very well of people working productively. it was a bad thing when we had zero interest rates, and maybe that should tell us the real lesson should be that government monetary stimulus has really been oversold. i don't think that ever did anything good for growth. and this illusive neutral rate that steve liesman talked about this morning is very important to discover, why not let the market discover that why not let the demand and supply for loanable capital determine interest rates then we'd have a natural rate of interest and i think that would be much more efficient than the fed ratcheting up, ratchet ing down and ed considerate limits living

in month-to-month, perils to pauline wondering what the fed's thinking, when instead, really the ed fe should just step back. the fed should not be such a prominent presence in financial markets. and i hope that's the lesson that's been learned. learned. >> we somehow -- i don't know how you characterize this growth that we are seeing if it's not keynesian and not from all the fiscal spending, is it actually organic growth is it happening in spite of some of the things that we've seen done is productivity rising in spite of our best efforts to mess things up? >> well, i think we don't know now what the impact of a.i. is certainly, there are great expectations there, but i am concerned that it's not all organic. the problem is when you have this anomaly of fiscal stimulus

in terms of deficit spending by the government at the same time that your central bank is practicing monetary rectitude and saying, we're going to keep it high however long it takes to keep inflation down, what that ends up doing is shifting power to the government away from the private sector, because when borrowing costs are relatively high, that's a real barrier for private borrowers, for small businessmen, for entrepreneurs, because they say that's just an expense of doing business that makes it prohibitive i can't expand plant and equipment. that's why i don't want the fed to interrupt that because that's how you increase output and bring up supply to meet demand but i think the demand is being fueled by government spending, and i will never believe that the government spends money or makes better investments in the private sector i think we would have much more innovative responses to issues,

including cleaner fuel, if you allow the entrepreneurs to proceed and to, i mean, necessity is the mother of invention, and i think that's a great strength of the american economy, that and competition and the profit motive. those are all good things that bring more prosperity in the end. >> the -- we did have the fed kind of enable the government to overspend, and yet, things are still pretty good. 3.3% is that surprising to you? that's what i'm trying to get at how did that happen? >> well, i think i'll say this if the fed's idea was that these restrictive rates were cutting off growth, does that mean they really believe we would have had 4.9% in the third quarter or 3.3%, it would have been even higher i don't think so i think there's a natural

resilience in the american economy, so to that extent, the fact that people wanted to go back to work, the fact that the labor market was fairly tight and i think continues to be, people are spending. some of that is going to dissipate, but i will always bet on the american economy. i think there has been some genuine growth, but again, that fiscal spending, the impact of the government, is dangerous because then it's artificial, and i think that leads to more instability. we don't know how long this could last we see a build-up of credit card debt we see other worrisome trends developing, so i just -- i just -- we need less fiscal and monetary stimulus, and let's have that kind of organic growth that we can count on >> well, let's enjoy it while we can. it's like the porridge it's just right at this point. you're right it either gets too cold or we

heat it up too much. we'll see. judy shelton, thank you. >> pleasure. >> it's been a while good to have you on. thanks when we come back, we will talk markets and get you ready for the opening bell on llwa street "squawk box" will be back after a quick break. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized...

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welcome back to "squawk box. futures improving after this hour's inflation data. joining us right now on the markets and maybe a comment on where inflation really is headed, joann feeney you got a take on all of this this morning? >> don't look a gift horse in the mouth. the u.s. economy is doing very well we saw that with the retail sales, the gdp report, this morning's inflation data showing continued strength in consumer spending and tapering down of inflation as the fed has sort of suggested that might happen. we're starting to see it, which is really good news. the investor, i think, is well positioned to have an investing environment that's very solid and growth as far as we can tell is likely to continue, although we do expect it to moderate. >> do you think -- and i thought judy shelton's comments have been quite interesting there's been a larger debate about whether inflation is coming down as a function of the fed or in spite or despite it.

the answer actually matters in a way, because it could give the fed flexibility to actually lower rates if, in fact, you think that they're less relevant, oddly enough, in terms of having a major impact >> yeah, no, i think both things are going on i think it's correct to state that the initial pulse to inflation was from shortages and the fiscal spending that happened to keep households afloat during the rest of the pandemic certainly fed into spending capability. so, demand sustained, low supply, inflation. i think the fed's response to that was because it just took longer for that to go away, but it was important it was important for the price of money to be raised to levels that were in line with what was happening in financial markets so, i think the fed needed to do that i think it continues to need to keep interest rates sustained, because i think that's where the price of money is sitting right now, and so for the fed to cut prematurely would inject an amount of liquidity into the system that could undo some of the good effects we're starting

to see >> your gamble, to the extent you gamble, but maybe for gambling everywhere, is what in terms of what jay powell does next >> yeah, i don't think he's going to cut as soon as the market does. i think we're looking at the second half at best, but it's going to depend on what the numbers do from here to there. >> what does that mean for equities between now and then? >> i think the long-term, it's not going to move that much. i think it's about short-term rates. in terms of valuations for, say, growth rates, it's really the ten-year that you care about, and i don't see that moving a whole lot, no matter what the fed does so, for an investor, i think it's safe to be investing in growth stocks at this point. in fact, if anything, there will maybe be a slight tailwind if those longer term rates come down a little bit, but otherwise, i think it's clear sailing in some ways build a portfolio, include some growth, and include some of those sectors that really got beat up last year. >> okay, clear sailing i hope that's right. we'll save the tape in case it's

right or wrong we always appreciate seeing you and getting your perspective thanks again >> you bet let's take a quick final check on markets before we hand it over to our friends on "squawk on the street. dow looks like it would open up about seven or eight points. have a fabulous weekend, everybody. make sure to join us next week "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange we do close out a powerful week today, five straight record highs for the s&p. and today, core pce comes in a bit light, lowest in almost three years, even as personal spending beats our road map, though, will begin with intel shares are tumbling. plus, bye-bye, magnificent seven. why jim is now calling it a super six-pack and inflation