it might be turtle time. >> the hair. john, thank you, great to see you. >> thank you oovps. let's take a final checks on the markets quickly. the futures will continue to be under pressure, dow futures off close to 80 points. s&p down by 10. mike, thank you. >> thank you. we'll see you back here soon, too. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintailla with jim cramer. david faber has the morning off. futures a bit soft as several industrials guide lower, including ups. market awaiting microsoft and google tonight. the fed decision tomorrow. a slew of corporate results today. gm, ups, pfizer all crossing the tape. amazon, alphabet, amd after the

bell. whirlpool warns of spending softness this year. the first wave of non-curated reviews out just a couple moments ago. we will bring you the highlights. let's begin with ups announcing plans to cut some 12,000 jobs, jim, as they do guide lower for the year. >> very disappointing quarter, trying to figure out exactly what happened. profits down gigantically, 12,000 jobs is obviously necessary when you have revenue down very, very big. i think ups is in disarray. not quite sure how to fix the situation. i don't think it necessarily affects fedex, wondering on the amazon impact. it's the type of thing where i'm not saying it bodes poorly for anyone other than ups because i think ups is in a tough run here. they had union problems. obviously they're down on behalf, really, very, very positive. i think fedex is a buy.

i think ups after they announced the job cuts, people are going to start liking it. a lot of people want to own ups. i'm not going through. i have to have more of a view that things are get better. >> it is an effort to cost a billion in costs. full-year revenue 92 to 94.5 billion, streets of 95.6. cap at 4.5. >> there will be people who say 12,000 jobs, first real impact of slowdown, of rates higher. a gut-wrenching decline, frankly. for a unionized outfit. i look at this and i say i want to know how much of this is lost business to fedex. how much of it is what amazon is doing. how much of it is poorly run? i don't know. >> operational challenges. >> operational challenges. >> it does bring to mind the list of layoffs lately.

levi, ebay, salesforce, macy's, way fair, unity. trimming at alphabet and microsoft. we've got about a fifth of the s&p 1500 having reported already. of those, 15 of those have mentioned layoffs which is up from the prior two quarters. >> we have these companies recognizing, you'll hear this from amazon and alphabet. we made decisions. we had a lot of initiatives and decided to close those initiatives. i think that is prudent and the numbers go higher. then there are other companies like a macy's which is under siege from these activists where they're trying to take some action. then there's companies that are just saying things are softer. but i'm not seeing lots of companies doing the latter. it certainly would make sense if things continue this way. but i'm not ready to wave a red flag yet. >> the journal has a piece

today. fewer workers quitting their jobs. >> isn't that interesting. >> glass door had a chart yesterday looking at employee confidence in their job security. very low. it's really rolled over. >> wow. no more public companies that are at the top? >> i guess the question is, are you going into friday's print with maybe eyes a little wider open? >> i am. those are stats that say there's not going to be any increase of wages, people having to keep their job. i think this is one of the things -- that nick timer's piece from the journal was really good. yesterday there was a piece about disinflation. i think we're now starting to see deflation. i think at costco we had zero growth in pricing. i think we're going to start seeing deflation there. things are going the fed's way.

the question is, is this a long enough window? if i'm jay powell, i say, it's starting to go my way, it's working. but i think americans are worrying. this is the first time. election year. we see some companies that are doing so well. newport is a good representative. in the newcore chart, knew core is talking about a decline in machinery, in tractors. to me that's a decline in none other than caterpillar which was at an all-time high yesterday. 224 domestic end market use. higher interest rates coupled with declining profits hurting demand for tractors, combine, earth moving machinery, rail cars. there's the economy for you. that is exactly what's going on

with amazon. nucor is hitting it out of the park. they haven't had a line item that's worried me in a long time. >> other industrials did guide a bit lower today, corning, johnson controls. >> that's the economy. >> you add on top of that what dallas fed and empire told us the last couple weeks. >> you're spot on, carl. when you see these cuts. jci had already said things were bad. and then i want to combine that with this note that a lot of people are buzzing about about the dot-com. >> yes, the quants are back. >> last night i had a company called super micro on, smci.

if you look at this thing, you say is it really possible it went out at 495 and it's at 548. the answer is charles liang makes equipment to go along with nvidia. you keep coming back to nvidia being the sun and all these other -- these planets resolve around it. i don't know if this is mercury or venus. it ain't pluto. >> you told us yesterday you would go into your show excited to hear from him. >> when you put up these numbers, what you recognize is the orders -- you wake up in the morning. there are a few businesses you wake up in the morning, 100 million, right back. this guy wants 200 million. you've got guys calling asking for hundred million dollar orders. >> it's actually worth listening to what the ceo told you last

night on "mad money." take a listen. >> -- ai revolution impact so many things -- for example, industry automation including our job, efficiency -- accuracy. >> maybe the layoffs we just talked about and the ai push he's talking about are part of the same thing. >> i want to make that my point on tonight's "mad money." when he gave all those different verticals, what those verticals where people said, you know what, i don't need all these people. he talked about verticals that i have not heard. this is big money being used i think to replace people.

jensen huang has said this takes people from unproductive jobs and put them with productive jobs. when you combine them with the layoffs, carl, you can get the first industrial revolution. charles is a man of great knowledge. >> charles lamb, the ceo, he's talking about better, more important than the industrial revolution. now, industrial revolution is often a code word for seam stresses being laid off because of the loom. industrial revolution is not what jensen huang is talking about. he's talking about the iphone and how it can make things broader. he's talking about industrial revolution where we have fewer jobs, more productivity. >> we're back to the denny golden age of productivity,

long-term thesis. >> yes. isn't it interesting that he's been the hottest of the analysts. intel, the most humble, does not have an ounce of uberous in that man. >> by the way, more constructive. and to that point, goldman yesterday, q1 gdp tracker. they're talking about real wage income growth. job gains for now. business investment being led by things like this. >> this is charles liang versus jensen huang. then you have notes. gees, gunz blazing on the banks and the price targets are absurd. i want to be in the banking business. it's the end of the layoffs. the amount, i've never seen -- citi, sell to buy. are you kidding me? 46 price tag to 65? what is that? lazarus give me a call?

>> goldman from 3.33 to 4.39. >> the time of the report out of morgan stanley is the future is so bright we've got to upgrade. they said the basel gain will be lighter than we think. higher levels of excess capital ever, and then capital markets rebound. >> we're going to hear from companies all day. and the big question to ask i now think is are you finally using ai to figure out you're came of employment. that's what we've been waiting to see. come on. no music. i just got this. latest monthly consumer checkpoint from americans -- not a huge change according to the report. some of the same things. nothing has changed with the consumer. where the heck are we? where the heck are we?

to me other than ups we're pretty good. maybe some earnings aren't that good. but the consider is okay. just gave us good numbers from companies. i find myself thinking, okay, unless ai is about to replace -- pretty sanguine. if ai is about to replace, where do we put those people? ibm! they're making people go to work. that's real little dangerous. >> you better move if you're not close to the office. >> if you have to go to the office, see ya later. netflix doesn't drop enough content. they're doing an interesting nascar drop. that could be something for the non-ibmers to do while they try to figure out if they want to work there. >> when we come back, mary barra will join us in the next hour. stocks up 8% on the premarket on this beat and guiding above. they do talk a little bit about the ev business. an exclusive with citadel's ken griffin at network 24 in miami.

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a lot more to get to on the earnings front today. gm is surging on the quarterly result and guidance. 13 billion. street is not even at 11. >> something when you have the right cars and trucks, isn't it? this is actually -- a lot of it is hybrid. they do have the right hybrid. a lot of this is coming back to small business. small business is very strong. she's talking about trying to get the cruise back. a lot of the product lines dogging them have been lines that will be the 2030 future. the future is not now is the way it comes out, unless the state -- i had rivian, and he was saying the states are going to start pushing down -- it's

not going to be 2035, it's going to be 2030. he's going to be reedy. i think mary is reacting very much, it's not what they want now. i do think, by the way, we'll discover that hertz -- people have a lot of cars, but the tesla is not losing its value as people thought, but it's just not what people want right now. >> we'll talk to mary barra next hour. xi does say it's true, the pace of ev growth has slowed which has created some uncertainty, jim. we just showed that journal piece from yesterday where the dealers are saying, hey, we need hybrids, not pure evs. >> it's incredible. those people who have test driven some of the new evs are really in love with them. i've got to tell you, this says, hey, we can make the cars people want with huge gross margins. this is a rather excited comment from gm, mary barra saying this

is their year to execute. i think it's going to be remarkable. >> this is the key line at the top. we do expect our u.s. ev business profit positive. i think, jim, on a unit basis, the second half of the year. >> well, if she can do it, then people have to buy the stock right now even though it's up a lot. now, look, i always am wary of buying this close to the fed because we do know the fed could just with a whisper say the wrong thing. for an auto company, we're talking about a very cyclical company. right now these were very, very good numbers, and obviously can ford be far behind? ford has even more hybrid. >> coming off of tesla last week where they said volume would be notably lower. i'm not saying market caps have changed that much. has the table flipped a bit?

>> i think the fan boys is saying musk is low balling. underpromise, overdeliver situation. tesla and bitcoin might as well be the same thing. it was a couple, three years ago -- >> the memesters are very much back into bitcoin and they're into tesla, thinking tesla is a great opportunity. of course, i know that -- is not a meme. >> she's definitely a tesla bull. we do know this, along with ron baron and a bunch of others. >> i don't think she'll be buying -- >> gm is a huge story. we look forward to the interview with barra. cramer's mad dash, one more

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two specific firms very smart. here is wedbush upgrading block which is the old square. outperform a $90 price target. here is btig issuing a buy. $85 price tag. buried in is this, jack pack at the helm of the square ecosystem. 14 years after jack dorsey founded, he is back at the helm leading the segment. a lot of people felt he was an absent ceo. if jack is back, i'm with it. >> it's his relative absence or the reason you think it's not been able to respond. >> yes. multiple firms have tried to bull it, and it hasn't moved.

the only time i met jack is when he explained the ecosystem. he was very kind about it. that was delightful. it was really game, set, match. i thought it was going to be the young person's cash app the way everyone was using it. i do not want to go against jack dorsey if it's the jack dorsey of that era, because, wow, he can be great. >> if, in fact, he's giving it his full attention. >> i know you have a good relation. try to get him on the show. >> a little absent from television as well. >> it's never too late. i think this is a great sign. even though i love the cfo, she does a terrific job. jack being back tells me this thing is going to get excited again. that's terrific. >> we'll watch block out of the upgrade. the opening bell in a little over five minutes. you can catch us any time anywhere. listen to and follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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>> apple's vision pro becomes available in stores on friday. reviews of the $3500 headset are out today. the vernal says, quote, magic until it's not. our dot-com team at cnbc calls it, quote, the future of computing and entertainment. the journal's joanna stearns says it's the best headset yet, just a klim ps of the future. we'll talk to her in the next hour, jim. wedbush today upstairs, shipment forecast to 600k. >> what's incredible is there can be that many people that can afford this product. whirlpool is talking about a gadget that people aren't

willing to buy. it's interesting, a washing machine versus a vision pro. how do you like that? vision pro selling better than a washing machine. i think this is something if people get the tutorial as we have had, i think they'll say i've got to find the time to use it. do people have the time to use it? i'm watching kill"killers of th flower moon". i find myself saying maybe i should wait until i have this device. i watch it with my sister in westchester. we can talk to each other, snap in and out. i think there's something to be said for something totally new and different. i think we're not used to things that are totally new and different. this is a remarkable product that i got very excited about. people said, oh, yeah, headset, headset, headset. >> you and i are arguably pretty jaded when it comes to any kind of sales pitch. this is eye-opening, for lack of a better word.

[ cheers and applause ] >> there are very few things that i go in totally jaded. all right. i'll go see the view master. i come back and i say, okay, i've seen the future. i never thought this would happen. it reminds me of the 1964 world's fair when i was a little boy. [ bell ringing ]. >> it was a moment in time when people said look out, digital is coming. we didn't know what digital was. i think it's so far advanced a lot of people won't be able to accept it. >> that's actually -- the journal goes on to say these companies know these really aren't the devices we want. they're building toward an experience that looks more like a regular pair of glasses. until then, she says, they're just messing with our heads. >> my daughter has the ray bans from meta. they're no regular glasses.

it's an interesting product. let's not dismiss the fact that many people just want an instagram product. this is a product about leisure. i keep thinking about reed hastings when he came on "mad money" and talked about the element of time and how much time there is and inference. at that point far and away from nvidia. but the idea that, if you can find that time, you'll use it. will people find the time? i don't know because when i did use it, i found myself thinking i've got to go do the other stuff i've got to do, but i want to stay in this universe t. 3:00 this morning, give me meta. if i had meta, i wouldn't be reading nucor. i'd be on a vacation. it's like being on a vacation but better because it's cheaper.

>> we'll watch to see how the rollout is received later in the week. in the meantime, jim, in terms of mega cap tech, what's on the line for some of the prints tonight? >> i think microsoft has moved up so much. i want to warn people, amy hood, probably the most seasoned cfo in the world drops the bomb or gives you an electric fireworks when she speaks at the end of when she speaks. if you're trading off the headlines, you're doomed. it's all about what she says. she'll determine things. alphabet, it's set up for them to be able to say, listen, we're decided we won't have two health care divisions anymore. alphabet has so much rationalization it could do, that's amazing. starbucks, i want to make it clear, november was very bad for them because there were protests thatintimidated people that were pro-palestinian because they viewed it as a so-called

jewish company. >> along with mcdonald's and coke. >> a lot of companies were surprised to be tagged as companies complicit with israel. i think they have to deal with the idea that they could be -- the numbers could be cut. but are numbers ever cut enough ahead of time that a stock rallies? i look at dee and oh which is maybe one of the worst quarters i've seen, and the stock is up. >> even with revenue down one, cos major league goes is down 11. >> i crushed it with cass major league go. charge 25? how about 30. tequila defined 5%. crown royal down 2%, vodka down 4%, johnny walker down 13%, captain morgan down 2%. bullet is up. single malts are down.

i just think -- cannabis, cannabis, damp january, younger people not wanting to drink. the era of premiumization is over. we don't want the expensive stuff, we want the cheap stuff. >> the stock's reaction is a lot of that got banked. >> no one thought denver crude was going to do a good number. she satisfied us by giving a really bad number. that's what i have to start with starbucks as my travel trust owns it. without a doubt, whispers saying it's going to be really horrendous. if not, the stock will go up. numbers i think should come down with starbucks. the analysts didn't put the numbers in for november. >> we spent the whole week talking about troubles in china. we saw the ten-year, yield now 22-year low.

>> i know look at it and say -- this government which does not like kans yen economics is going to have to decide. i've been waiting for them to crunch real estate. i think the authorities have their work cut out for them. they will do it. i think -- i'm banking on china to pull out the stops. remember, they could sell $800 billion of our treasuries and give them away and they'd do better than they're doing now. >> a lot of companies, the trimmed guidance like a corning or a danaher are up 3%. >> danaher is very interesting. it was down 5% early on. i was cursing, just furious. i was talking to jeff marks and saying, this thing is unbelievable. don't people realize they said the second half is going to be good. why are they still reacting to the stupid, stupid, stupid stuff. well, they're not.

good enough for government work. danaher, the first time they said, look, it's coming together. danaher is levered to biotechs. frankly, it's levered to the ipo market. when a biotech company becomes public, the first thing they do is buy something from danaher. danaher is so conservative that they weren't willing to say, we're calling the bottom. people are calling the bottom for them. >> the ban's trading well, citigroup up about 2.5. >> wells fargo at a 52-week high. charley sharp, 19% last year. wells fargo is still a great buy. jpmorgan a good quarter. bank of america, the bonds aren't right. 2.8% yield. i really like that. this was a very, very smart upgrade because the stocks have done nothing. she's basically circling back.

so timely. we're all focused on companies that reported last night, like a knew kor. >> housing, pulte is helping out, jim, extending to all-time highs even with the revenue miss. >> rates went up big during this quarter. it doesn't seem to matter. they held the line in pricing and they're very, very good company. what's amazing is they were buying that stock when no one liked it. still sells at nine times earnings. i know toll brothers, their stock sells at eight times earnings. they don't report until 2/21. i think they could have an amazing quarter. >> pfizer, of course, the challenges there have been pretty well telegraphed. they reiterate the guide, talk about the challenges there. stock is higher, but nowhere near retracing the past 52 weeks. >> here you're making a bet that

c gen is going to deliver on critical cancers that people have had very little luck on. i saw, by the way, the nurtec numbers, the migraine drug, looks like they're getting a little hockey stick. i wonder if that's not lady gaga. unlike me, i did not take a lot of money for being a spokesperson. then again, i'm not lady gaga, in case anyone is confused between the two of us. >> jetblue with narrower-than-expected loss. they guide q1 revenue down seven, street's at five. >> they're not spending a lot of money. maybe we take the solvency off the table. >> they defer aircraft expenditures. >> we have not seen many writings where there's talk of liquidation versus non-liquidation. instead we see a lot of companies that are -- one of them i'm very excited about is

walgreens. they're closing a huge number of stores, closing the underperformers. cvs closing underperformers nationwide. in terms of commercial real estate, can we understand that if ibm is right, that makes sense why sl green has been so strong. makes sense that you should buy star wood where you have to go in with a little skepticism. the company with a pretty darn good yield at 9%. commercial real estate may not be the black hole people think it is. >> the story of the week is new york city's ability to drive workers back to the office. running 70% of prepandemic levels. >> it's happening. hopefully it will make it so there are areas that have been ghost towns that are no longer ghost towns. i find the city is coming back

quickly. it's very exciting. it's gotten very exciting. hoods in the 30s and 20s and then were crashing, they're so far back it's amazing. i have the advantage of being in that restaurant business. you hear, wow, the 30s are coming back, the 20s are coming back. very positive situation. >> you mentioned the bofa chart last night. looking at excess savings which has long been a debate. what's left? they say it's 800 billion. they say at the current drawdown rate it's going to last at least until the end of the year. >> the interview with matt boss made me feel -- sanguine about different levels. the lead story, why cut. >> why cut rates in an economy like this? >> i think if you're -- you're stuck -- if you're the fed, you're kind of stuck. you committed to basically saying, listen, if we get inflation down to a two level,

we're going to have to cut. then you have no problem with businesses -- businesses doing well. >> this is goldman's point. they gave us a threshold, and we got to the threshold. >> you can't take it back. >> no backsies. >> it's a 50-yard field goal, you can't say it's 55-yard field goal. >> that environment explains what the cruise lines are doing today, carnival up 1.5. rcl, their new big boat has come into the waters. i saw meal yus with a big report yesterday. the cruise business, they don't fight amongst each other. they're trying to get people who otherwise would have gone to disney or somewhere else. >> they are companies that really do stand for consumption.

they do represent great bargains. anyone who has done a cruise knows it is really kind of the great trip for people who are not -- for younger people. i remember when my daughter went on a music cruise. i was like, are you kidding me? you're like 25. you're going on a cruise. she said, dad, everyone is on a cruise. people that need to save a little extra money, this is the way to go. i just think these companies -- royal caribbean, by the way, great financing when things were bad. these new ships do attract people. pay attention to their ads, by the way, during the nfl. a lot of companies advertising during nfl are really flush, really flush. >> speaking of disney, jim, stocks bounced off 89, got to the high 90s, giving a little bit back today. what's added to weakness is what you talked about yesterday which is the call on warner brothers.

>> that was a tough call. anyone that works at disney, please close your ears. when nelson got involved, it was the bottom. i think the board collectively cringed and said cramer doesn't know what he's talking about. there was an article in the "wall street journal" saying i was basically running the company. >> i remember that. >> i miss nvidia so badly. but i do think there's something to be said that nelson has gotten in there and it's kind of exciting. by the way, all these companies are doing well, it's taking away from nvidia! >> and amd and some others. >> super micro is up 60. this is something to watch, intraday shift to other companies. amd from super buy to buy. then things like gm -- i can't

wait to see mary barra come on. i have been waiting for the quarter that she deserves. this is it. she's done remarkable work. look what happened. she was didn't try to mince words, just get it off. my wife test drove the hummer which she said heads turned. i said that's because you're good looking. she doesn't watch the show. i'm okay. i do think you're going to hear her and realize that she's got what people want whenever they want it. i think that's a very exciting story, gm. very exciting. >> how about crm getting added to the bofa u.s. 1 list, jim, inching back to the all time hi, 311 or so. >> if we have this shift that's going on in the cyclicals or people who are just concerned about what we just talked about. look, if you read "the new york times" article, your inclination will be, how much is he going to

tighten? because he's not winning. the fact is he's never said that he doesn't want job growth. he has said he doesn't want inflation. if we have no inflation and job growth, he's a happy man. why not wait to stay happy. stay happy until june. >> you're in more of the june camp. >> i'm in the june camp. i see too much strength, too much strength everywhere. we need to have the realization that super micro and nvidia really are taking jobs af way. i remember when charley sharp was talking, ceo of wells fargo, they're still in a shutdown branch mode. those are layoffs that i think are secular in nature because of technology. >> you mentioned at the top of the show this quant note from jpm wks looks apt the concentration of the top five. they argue the parallels to the dot-com bubble are a lot bigger than people are giving it credit for. >> i think the quant people -- i had taken a year of accounting.

there's a balance sheet. these companies are so flush with cash. there was an excellent note today about amazon. i don't know if you caught that. amazon could -- morgan stanley talking about strong grosser, aws may be recapturing poll position, increased -- larger buyback. hold it. apple buyback, microsoft buyback, meta buyback. i don't recall a lot of buyback during the dot-com era. it does seem like a really nice report, a fun report. guys, you've got to let the facts get in the way of the story periodically. don't just go out there and have be, oh, really. >> jim, we mentioned sort of the new world of the vision pro.

one thing we didn't mention was neuro link implanting a chip in this first patient's brain. >> this is remarkable. notice that the people who are getting it, the target market has not been -- the fda has always been very compassionate when there's nothing. my hats off to him. this is something that is so far advanced from what anyone has done. look, i can joke about tesla and inventory. i don't think you realize -- my spokesperson at the brain foundation last year, i thought we were nowhere on this. this is incredible. i have tinnitus, the secret when i went to san francisco, to stanford, listen, we're going to put a chip in your head.

it's going to have two antenna coming out of it. there's only a 5% chance you're going to die. i go back to my doctors. 5% chance you're going to die? no, we're not going to let you do that operation. this is for people -- this is like interpreting your thoughts for people who have no hope. this is it. this is the musk we love. >> it puts all the cyclical hand-wringing and worry worting in perspective, does does it not? between that and all the ai stuff we talked about. >> i went around and asked has anyone seen this happen? way too dangerous. and this guy solves it. look at various times he comes off as impulsive. i have no idea what that's like.

i do think this is rather -- this is fantastic. there are people right now, if he can scale this, their lives will change so dramatically that i think we're going to hail him as one of the greatest minds ever. this is impossible. medtroniy has done stuff on it. this is first generation. we thought we were nowhere. >> got to get educated about it. in the meantime, tight range, waiting for the fed decision tomorrow. check bonds, we'll get conference board in about ten minutes. jolts will pay a lot of attention to the quick rate and the implications that that may have on wage growth in the coming months. be right back.

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almost 20% to start the year as the chipmaker gets ready to release results after the close. lisa su will join us tomorrow after the opening bell. today rayjay cuts from a strong buy but still outperform, even as they raise the target to 195. >> i know a lot of people feel that there's no more room for relationships. lisa su is about the best there is. she's making them. there are buyers. >> we look forwa to lkg rdtainto her tomorrow. back in a moment. you always got your mind on the green. not you.

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. let's get to jim and stop trading. >> a company from a short seller recently is msci, the morgan stanley index company. always say it's not about friends but money but the man who runs this company very charitable, henry fernandez, i know, great friend of my wife's family, i was appalled at the charges. this man has more integrity that almost everyone i've met, everyone in business, i've known him for a long time. he puts up a lights out quarter and people who sold the stock because they thought that maybe hen gri fernandez is in any way, shape, or form nepotism, favorite, all the charges, but let me tell you about the charges they do not carry an ounce of worth and this is the

henry fernandez i know. monster quarter. terrific. everyone in the industry he is universally regarded as the man who could go to china, decide it's investable and we say it's investable. henry fernandez is a man who cannot be bought. >> global markets rely on him to a large degree. >> as they should because he has the highest integrity and remarkable man. >> you will be busy tonight. >> yes. the two stocks up the most, the top five in the s&p r cisco, that's the syy, and then newcore, i think easy shot to go to 200. what a company and i can't wait to talk to them. amazing quarter. just blast off time. blast off. tell mary i said hi and it's her day, whether we're skeptical about her ev, absolutely, this is not the day, notice crowdstrike, they got a big push, no, it's not a high multiple day. not a high multiple day. >> good point, jim. we'll see you tonight.

"mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time and to jim's point, s&p, dow, trying to inch into positive territory. a power-packed hour coming up with mary barra and an exclusive with ken grih. n'gonyere.nc

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good tuesday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live for you as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. stocks taking a step back here, s&p down 0.1 and groups like materials, financials and consumer discretionary keeping the declines from being worse. they're higher. what's not, energy is the biggest laggard as far as sectors, real estate, industrials, utilities all down. nasdaq composite down 0.3%. we're up week to date. tesla having a comeback today

and nvidia and meta higher as well ahead of some big magnificent seven earnings this afternoon out of alphabet and microsoft. treasury yields continue their rally. we got after the refunding announcement yesterday came in a little less than expected. we saw a big rally. the 10-year note yield remains lower again above the 4% level. 30 minutes into the trading session here are three big movers we're watching. shares of ups dropping, delivering a fourth quarter revenue miss and disappointing guidance. ups laying off 12,000 positions as demand remains soft. shares of jetblue and spirit airlines moving big time. they are now filing for an expedited appeal to that court ruling that blocked their $3.8 billion merger. jetblue's ceo will be on "power lunch" to discuss it later today. shares of block moving higher. the fin tech company getting bullish calls. bmig upgrading to buy with an $85 target. webb bush raises its price target to 90 from 70. one more, gm in the green after

a top and bottom line beat and strong guidance there. gm's ceo mary barra is going to join us in just a few moments to break down the quarter and the outlook. market here reacting to fresh data on the consumer and confidence. let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. indeed, there was big surprises here. look at that chart of interest rates popping up. consumer confidence, this from the conference board, january numbers. headline, expected 114.8. that's exactly what we had. that happens to be the best level since december of 2021. if we look at the present situation it's rocketing from 147.2 to 161.3. expectations, a little more muted. 83.8, which is the best since july, however, there's an ast asterisk because last month was revised significantly lower. 85.6 turns into 81.9 to give the

83.8 a comp back to july. now, job openings, labor turnover for december, always two months in arrears, expecting a number right around 8, 750, 000. a beat. this breaks a three-month streak of lower job openings, 9, 026, 000. that is the biggest jobs opening number since september and last month had a revision from 8, 790, 000, which also tends to break that three in a row he lower streak, but it doesn't matter. this month popped back above 9 million. interest rates moving up a bit. a couple things quickly, short covering in front of tomorrow's ultimate two-day fed meeting completion seems to be going on, especially in two year. germany negative gdp. finally i find this really important. not many pay a whole lot of attention, s&p core logic, but

their housing price index year over year, not seasonally adjusted was the best level since december of '22. that's good news. sara, back to you. all right. rick santelli, thank you. bond market not liking all the good news, especially i think the job openings going above 9. the federal reserve pays attention to it, as it relates to the tighter labor market, and it shows the availability for workers continues to be strong and appetite continues to be strong from big corporations. i'll add to the good news from the imf this morning. the world economic outlook. they update this quarterly and it was actually an upgrade for the world economy from where they were last october. 3.1% growth is what is expected globally now for 2024. now it's a little bit higher. 0.2% higher. if you look across the individual economies, india, by far, is the big grower this year, expecting 6.5% growth. they take up the forecast for china because of some of the stimulus from the government

that we've gotten there, 4.6% growth, and in the u.s., imf is expecting a healthy 2.1% growth this year. europe manages to avoid recession according to the imf and japan looks a little better. i would just add on top of that, carl, the imf expects inflation to come down faster as well. there's the soft landing and it's not just a u.s. story. it's confirmed globally by imf. we'll see if central banks can actually deliver it, but they now expect inflation to be less of athreat and growth to outperform and that's been the story of the market and the u.s. economy in 2023. they expect it to continue. >> a lot of the color is interesting. talk about remarkable resilience in the global economy. we are very far from a global recession scenario and they see oil dropping 2% this year. >> yeah. i mean they warn a little bit about some of the shipping problems that the red sea -- >> limited impact. >> limited impact and geopolitical issues they warn about ukraine and the middle east.

they note that 11% of world trade does pass through the red sea, so it's a threat no question about it, it's a global trade, but you're right, i mean it's mostly a positive report, which stands in contrast to the results and outlooks that we got from major companies i would just note whirlpool is one of them. they warn on the housing market and the impact there. ups as well which we're going to talk about. let's hit gm. that was positive. take a look at shares over the last year or so, they've been strong and they're strong this morning after results. let's get to gm's ceo mary barra alongside our phil lebeau. mary, good to have you. welcome. >> thank you. it's good to be here. >> you know, there's a lot going on with the strike impact and the uaw contract and crude. how is the underlying business doing for you? >> the underlying business is doing quite well. we have a really strong internal

combustion engine portfolio that continues to do well and we see growth opportunities building on what we did last year from an ev perspective, this is our year to execute and see growth there, so it's a strong performance in 2023, i'm really proud of the team and i think '24 can be another strong year. >> you're giving a pretty positive outlook here. some are wondering if you're setting the bar too high out of the gate, given some of the weakness we're seeing across evs? >> well, if you look at the entire market we think we're going to have another 16 million unit market. you shared at the beginning of your show how the economy is improving. we see that, and we still -- we ended the year with low inventory across many of our key segments. this is going to be an important year, again, for our internal combustion engine programs and evs. ev, now that we have really solved the module constraint and think that will be behind us by the middle of the year, we have several vehicles out into the -- out already that we're going to

be getting to dealers and customers' hands and several we're launching this year. >> do americans want them? we got tepid outlook from tesla. there are signals. hertz give back a third of its ev fleet, that the demand just isn't what it's thought to be. >> i think, you know, on a transformation as big as this is, i don't think anyone expected it to be linear. last year in the united states it was about 7% of the total market. even the lowest forecast by outside analysts is that it's going to be about 10%. so that still represents strong growth, and i think this is where general motors is uniquely positioned. we didn't have as many evs as we had strong demand for, for instance, with the cadillac lyric, we've seen sequential improvement as we've had availability of sales starting in september, and we see that strength carrying in, even in january we think it will match what we did in december, even when you look at the weather across the country that stopped people from buying vehicles. again, with our particular

portfolio, we also have 100,000 either orders or reservations for our ev pickups and we're planning as we increase production deliver those through '24 and '25. with the specific products we have we're well positioned. we have flexibility, and so if ev demand is lower than that 10% growth rate, we'll be able to index back and forth between ice and ev. two of our plants, one in spring hill, tennessee, one in mexico have the ability to build either ice or ev and even at our factory zero we can switch between the different evs. we have flexibility to respond but for general motors we're going to see an increase in the evs we sell this year. >> mary, it's phil. while you are expecting an increase in ev demand, you're also going to be doing pivoting here and answering what a lot of dealers are calling for, which is for more hybrids. these will be plug-in electric

hybrids. you haven't put a target out there or you didn't with the analyst call a few minutes ago. how much demand do you expect to be out there in terms of hybrids? >> well, you know, just like the ev demand has been an up and down trajectory, we've seen that with hybrids. a few years back hybrid demand was dropping pretty quickly, so we're going to have a balanced approach. when we look at it, we're still committed to an all ev future and getting our light duty portfolio all ev by 2035, but in between now and 2035, we think hybrids will play a role, especially as the charging infrastructure continues to build and also to meet a more stringent regulatory environment. i don't have a specific forecast. we'll be able to flex. this is tech we've already deployed in other regions so we'll deploy it in north america when we think it's best suited to help us meet the regulatory requirements. for 2024, with the availability

and the interest that we have in our evs, i think we're going to see growth there. >> mary, i want to ask you about elon musk's comments regarding chinese automakers and his words saying they will demolish all other automakers if there are not trade restrictions put in place. they have them in the united states but much of the world doesn't and you manufacture in china and export out of china, but if things don't change, do you foresee a possibility that general motors might some day say you know what, this is not for us? we cannot play here in china unless it's a fair playing field? >> well, you know, we're seeing a lot of change in the chinese market already with, you know, over 100 domestic ev manufacturers, although many of them are not profitable. we're really evaluating our business of where we can win. we're getting more evs launched this year and i think that's going to be very important, as well as preparing to sell some of our iconic both evs across our brands in the marketplace.

china is an important market and has still tremendous growth opportunity, so we're looking as the market changes dramatically how we play there. more broadly, you know, i don't underestima underestimate any competitor we have in this industry. whatever market we're competing in we need the right technology, the right customer experience and do it at a cost point which we can compete. we have to have a level playing field in each of those markets and that's what we'll continue to advocate for. i think having winning products that customers want to buy is critically important. >> what about return -- >> follow-up, mary -- go ahead, sara. >> i was going to ask about -- >> my follow-up, mary, i'm sorry, mary, let me quick follow-up, when you talk with election or elected leaders, whether it's mexico, whether some of the countries in south america where you have a pretty good footprint, have you expressed look, the chinese are

dumping in vehicles here 20 to 30% cheaper than what we're able to do and it's not good for the market and it's not go ahead for the market overall? what do they say to you? >> well, again, phil, i'm not going to cover specific conversations we have with key country leaders where we participate, but we talk about what's necessary to have a strong business and to provide, you know, we have in south america many locations we have local operations that are very important to those countries, so we continue to say what is important, it has to be a level playing field, but we also have to do our part to make sure we're competitive and can meet those challenges. that's what we're continuing to do, and that's why we have such a focus on optimize our capital spend and getting our cost structure right across each of these different markets. >> i was going to ask about profitability in the chinese market, and your level of confidence of when that can happen? >> well, i mean, we have a

profitable business. we are doing some inventory ajudgements in the first quarter and expect fourth irst quarter e a loss but in '24 the same it will be in '23. that's a combination of internal combustion vehicles and evs. as we expand the portfolio we have to continue to get costs down. i think the pressure on price, i think of course is something that's not going to sustain for a long time. when you look at, again, the number of ev companies they have, we really have to get to a point where all companies are profitable and i think there's a lot of structural change to still happen in the chinese market, and, you know, we're going to continue to adjust our business to be able to remain profitable and compete. >> mary, i have to ask about cruise, you're going to spend a billion less, but we know the doj and the sec are investigating this incident in october where a woman was

dragged 20 feet. what is next for this company? they had to recall the cars. i think you said you're still fully committed to cruise. what happens? >> well, you know, from that incident, which was tragic and our hearts go out to this woman who is still recovering, so we're -- we are focused on making sure we do the right thing. the vehicles weren't recalled. there was a recall made to change the software to update for the specific improvements that were needed based on this specific incident. as we look back, we've done a complete review. we will cooperate with the doj and the sec. i think the report that was done demonstrates that, you know, we have taken the right steps, addressed the issues, we're adopting all of the recommendations that were made. the core to it, as we launch cruise, because we have complete faith in the underlying technology, what we have learned is that although we have demonstrated the technology was safer than a human driver, humans have a higher expectation

for technology than they do -- than we do with each other. we're defining that right now in the upcoming weeks and months we will lay out our new plan for cruise, but we believe in the technology and more importantly, we believe in the life-saving opportunity that this technology can provide because right now on the roads 90% of fatalities are caused by human error. we believe in the technology. we are continuing to invest. as we go forward we're going to do it in a way that we work with regulators at the local, state, and federal level, as well as work with first responders in the communities and make sure that the community understand. there's a lot of work to do, but we have confidence and that's the plan we're working on right now. >> got it. mary, thank you very much. we certainly appreciate your time today on earnings day. >> thank you. >> mary arra, ceo of general motors. as we head to break, thank you to phil as well, here's our road map for the hour. citadel's ken griffin is speaking with our leslie picker about the record rally, inflation, the fed and economy

coming up. >> fed kicks off a two-day meeting on rates. exclusive results of our cnbc fed survey on when economists expect the fed to begin cutting and by how much. >> reviews of apple vision pro headsets are out. joanna stern joins us. big show still ahead. "squawk on the street" back after a break.

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in miami where leslie picker is sitting down with ken griffin. let's listen live. we'll do that in a bit. markets have been all over the place. started out with decent action with some of the enthusiasm with the guidance but it was conference board and jolts. best consumer confidence number in a number of years. best jobs open number since september. the 10-year picked up close to 4.09 and taken wind out of equity sails. >> you want good data and don't want a recession but don't want it too hot or the market doesn't, and that's maybe the selloff in bonds. treasuries rallied big yesterday after that refunding. i love this has become a market moving announcement. last year it was when the treasuries had to borrow over a bill been dollars and we got a back up in yields. the last two announcements have been better on that front. the next hurdle to clear is tomorrow morning, when the treasury breaks down the auction

sizes. the implication is it's not going to have to borrow as much, fiscal picture improves just a little bit and i think that's why the rally. as far as the job openings at 9 million, i think that will get the fed's attention, right. the first day of the fed meeting. we know the fed is going to be on hold tomorrow, but the question is, do they change their guidance and how does fed chair powell telegraph how he's thinking about when is appropriate to start cutting and why. >> the quit rate pretty steady at 2.2 n line with where we were before the pandemic began, and, of course, the quit rate has a large impact on implied wage growth. pantheon yesterday accelerated the quit rate by a couple of quarters. it's right in line with wages growing at about 3.25. we'll keep our eye on that. back to miami. >> pro independence, political class, and yet klchina was ableo

be thoughtful in its choice of words and to, i want to say, embrace the moment, but to play through the moment in a constructive way. we need that tone in this world. if there were a rupture around taiwan it would be catastrophic to both the chinese and to the american economy. by catastrophic, i think you're looking at great depression circumstances. >> if there were some -- you say rupture, a war, some sort of attack? >> if we lost access to taiwanese semiconductors, how many weeks until tesla stops making cars? or gm? or ford? or boeing stops making planes? those chips are used in every part of our economy. estimates range from a gdp hit of between 8 and 10% if we lost access to taiwanese semiconductors. so it's really important as a matter of national economic security, that we're able to

maintain peace in that region of the world. >> what about american competitiveness with china? you touched on that briefly. elon musk said last week the only thing stopping chinese ev makers is protectionism, trade barriers. the byd dethroned tesla in the fourth quarter as the top ev seller and this morning gm came out and reported a steep decline in operating income, in part due to losses from its ev unit. what do you make of the state of american competitiveness with china, especially as it pertains to some of our key industries, eves, chips, et cetera? >> so solar. evs, consumer electronics, these areas the chinese have done extraordinarily well from a competitor perspective, and watching byd surpass tesla in global sales was a bit of a heartbreaking moment. but we often lose sight of the fact that the chinese economy represents 1.4 billion people, so they have a huge advantage

when it comes to simple economies of scale, combined with a strong education system that produces four times as many s.t.e.m. graduates. we've got a real competitor in china, and elon is right that the west has to grapple with the issue, europe in particular, california, trying to achieve a very, very different future in terms of how we consume energy and an ev-led future in particular. california wants no internal combustion cars in the foreseeable future. are we going to make that happen by buying chinese vehicles? that's the most cost-effective way to do so for american consumers. >> what do you think? >> that's a hard pill to swallow. >> what would you sfrug a policy standpoint -- suggest from a policy standpoint? >> how fast do we need to push the drive towards evs? how much do we need to

accelerate that at a moment in time where the u.s. companies, your ford and gm, are still trying to catch up with tesla, and tesla has one great asset. elon is a phenomenal entrepreneur. i think that don't lose sight of the fact that tesla makes a great car, but there's an opportunity at tesla to create the softer platform for the future of automobiles. the self-driving car, good chance it will first happen at tesla. >> speaking of policy, i alluded that we were going to talk politics. we may need a music change. we'll keep -- >> or is this like the funeral song? >> in the fall, it was reported that you were contemplating supporting nikki haley for president. did you ultimately support her, and what's your thinking in this current post--iowa, post--new hampshire cycle? >> so here's the big picture. we're down to two people on the republican side running for president. i have supported nikki haley.

i think she is a tremendous candidate. i've been consistent, i wish on both sides, we would have a candidate of a younger generation. big picture, trump is running on a record of success. his four years were good policies for america. to be clear i think a lot of americans want a safer world. i think we all felt safer with trump as president than we do right now. i mean, we have a war in ukraine, a terrible situation in the middle east. i think the united states has failed to demonstrate strength to our allies in a way that has really undermined the global order. i know many of us, me included, you know, struggle with some of trump's behaviors, but there was a dimension of greater global security with him as president, particularly from u.s. interests. i think that's a really important tailwind he's enjoying right now. for all the talk of trump taking away our democracy, i have to

tell you, american voters are really disturbed by what happened in colorado. they took him off the list of candidates. i mean, like wow. republicans fight with whether or not you show up with an ichlgts d. to vote and democrats remove the opponent from the ballot. that's a dark world. trump has the benefit of having the proven success he had as president, the sense of global insecurity that makes voters anxious, and he -- mine to be blunt, he's the martyr right now. he is under criminal 90 some felony charges. his name is being removed from ballots. it's hard not to feel some level of just like, this is just wrong. this is just unfair. and frankly, as a voter, i want my vote to determine who is the president and not some clever legal maneuvers by somebody on the opposing side of the aisle. it's a really interesting moment. and then, you know, frankly, i

think nikki haley would runway with the general election. >> you think at this point she still has a pathway to getting the nomination? >> it's a narrower road than it was eight weeks ago. it's narrower. i think part of this is fueled by the geopolitical backdrop, the events recently in the middle east even the last couple days, right. we now have dead americans, three americans killed in service. that's heartbreaking, and i think there's a sense of do we want to return to a president who is just viewed as more powerful, more in charge, and that's going to be difficult for nikki to overcome right now. her poise, admirable. her foreign policy experience, tremendous. her ability to unite this country, phenomenal. i just don't though that at this moment that's going to get her where she needs to get to in south carolina and thereafter. >> in a trump-biden matchup would you support someone? >> i would probably be where the prior group said 77% of

americans don't want that matchup. i'm in the 70%. >> so maybe you'll sit this one out? >> you know what, here's the big picture. i've said this to my friends involved in politics, you can be frustrated, you can be angry, disappointed, but you can't be uninvolved. i've been involved in a number of the senate races, number of the house races. i'll be deeply involved here in florida and florida races locally. just because we can struggle with who our choice of president is doesn't mean we have to walk away from the field. people like dave mccormick running in pennsylvania. dave has served our nation. west point grad, successful in business. he would bring to d.c. the gravitas that we want, gravitas -- >> worked in this industry. >> worked in this industry. don't hold that against him. but he would bring the gravitas that we want in people who serve in public service. he put his life on the line for the country. that's who we want in d.c. people that will put america first.

so i'm going to be very involved -- >> that's leslie picker with citadel's ken griffin if miami. watch more of that live exclusive interview right now on cnbc.com. interesting comments and a reminder of how influential ken is when it comes to national politics and fundraising. more interesting, though, was the discussion of a potential global depression in his words if, in fact, there were to be a war between china and taiwan and what would happen if our supply of chips got cut off? >> in nobody's interest he says the u.s. or china's, but especially in the u.s., a global depression, right. how many days before tesla would have to stop making evs as an example he threw out there as far as how destructive and catastrophic it would be. that is clearly a big risk he's thinking of. in politics, it was notable he said he's been supporting nikki haley and spoke fondly of her but said that path for her getting the nomination, winning the primary, has narrowed, given

president trump is, as he said this, and said this many times a martyr because he's facing the charges. he dodged the i would vote for trump over biden, he wants younger candidates like 70% of americans. doesn't want to see that matchup. working toward local races instead. >> he is in the soft landing camp and says unlikely we get another hike, but sees the first cut potentially coming this summer. >> right. sort of where the market is right now. we've got a number of stocks on the move especially in the transportation sector. ups at the top of the list there. it is down sharply almost 8%. frank holland tracking the movers. good morning, frank. >> hey, good morning to you, sara. you know, the broader dow transports are falling more than 1%, almost 1.5%, far under performing the marketon the back of those disappointing ups earnings. we're going to take a look at the transport sector right now. software guidance and revenue miss moving ups lower and will lay off 12,000 workers.

on the call carol tome says the cuts will be mostly managers. ups is seeking a strategic alternative for its supply chain business that generated about 14% of revenue last quarter. the impact of the teamsters contract and a slower macro environment, both weighing on ups. you can see rival fedex moving lower on the report with smaller e-commerce player pitney bowes. on the other side, a big move to the upside for spirit airlines, at least in part due to a report that the airline filed a motion to expedite the peel of a blocked merger with jetblue. a judge refused to allow the merger this morning saying it would hurt u.s. airline competition. you can see jetblue shares, however, they continue to move lower right now. back over to you. >> frank holland, thanks so much. what an important story today. make or break week for earnings and fed ahead of the earnings tomorrow. we'll check in with goldman's iechf equity strategist david kostin to break it all down after a short break.

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the fed kicks off its two-day meeting today. before the central bank makes the decision on rates steve liesman will give us the results of the latest fed survey. good morning, steve. >> good morning, carl. in contrast to the market's aggressive outlook for rates, the cnbc fed survey sees things happening later and sees them happening not going quite as far as the market expects. that outlook was bolstered in the past few minutes by the better than expected jolts report. just 9% see a march cut in the fed survey. that rises to even money for may, only in june there is a majority of 70% looking for that rate hike. futures markets may have priced in almost six hikeses, respondents see a bit more than three. the fed expected to end quantitative tightening, reduction of its balance sheet that is in november. the probability of recession

remains elevated but fallen to 39%, the lowest level since the spring of 2022. looks like the 25 respondents on average are forecasting the fed will cut rates every other meeting. you can see that in those little spikes in what you have there in september and december along with june. while respondents predict a cautious fed on balance, they think the fed should be more aggressive. 56% say the bigger risk here is that the fed cuts rates too late. 44% say the risk is going too early. mike england writing, the risk is that the slowdown in both growth and inflation proves smaller than assumed and that the fed moves too soon to lower rates. 56% say stocks are overpriced for a soft landing. that's kind of bullish for this usually bearish crowd. 92% say if we have a recession stocks are overpriced. a quick note on that jolts report, the probability of a march hike declining to 37% with a news that job openings increased more than expected down 10 points. you remember, sara, not too long

ago, between the meetings, the probability that march hike was north of 80%. >> march cut you mean? >> march cut. sorry. >> yes. march cut. >> i mean steve, he's got to keep options open for march, i guess. i dwirn how the market will -- wonder how the market will read his comments and thread that needle. >> that's what everybody is going to be listening for. as i've said several times, watch what the committee does in addition to what the chairman says. last time, everybody went crazy over what the chair said, but the committee did one thing on policy and that was to add the word "any" to kind of take hikes ofrts table. the committee went whole hog on rate cuts. >> love the language dissection to come. thank you, steve. steve liesman. our next guest says equities will likely struggle if rates rise because of shifts in fed policy or the balance of treasury supply and demand.

equity strategist with a target of 5100, david costsen, welcome to you sir. >> nice to see you. >> you got back from traveling the world. europe and asia. i'm curious, what you're hearing from global investors and what they're excited about? >> so, sara, for the last 30 years, the macro strategy team at goldman has traveled to europe and asia. we're in london, paris, zurich and frank further in the second week of january. we have an opportunity to exchange views and head to asia and visit clients in japan, hong kong and singapore. there are a couple of takeaways i thought was interesting this year, relative to previous years. first of all we do a survey and about half of the portfolio managers are anticipating equity returns on a global basis between 0 and 10% which is pretty consistent with our forecast. we're up 3.5% in the united states, maybe another 3.5% left to go. pretty modest upside as you

indicated to 5,100. that's consistent. about half the portfolio managers were in that camp. another third were in the more bullish somewhere between 10 and 20% type of returns. that's kind of the return expectations. they were all-in on the united states and that's unusual because typically there's a home region bias. you go to asia and there's a bias in favor of the companies there. sort of understandable. they know them best. that was not the case both in europe and asia most of the fund managers were inclined towards seeing the u.s. as the best opportunity set. japan, carl, was one that they could have ranked number two across the world that we saw, and weigh down considerably down was china. a lot of concerns around china expressed in the region in asia as well as in the european investor community. then europe was at the tail end. that's the geographic split. within different sectors people more inclined towards technology, not a shock there in terms of looking back at performance last year.

number two health care. the second most interesting opportunity set. the last item, is your favorite, magnificent seven, versus the 493. there was a big debate. it was basically, carl, kind of 50-50 split. maybe a slight lean towards the big seven, but not. that's in contrast with our view, my view is that leaning towards a little bit in the other direction a broadening in the market, 493, and given a choice i will take the 2,000, not the 7 or 493, and the small caps. that's the lay of the land having traveled around the world in two weeks. >> has any of the recent action in the russell made you question your call for small caps to do better at least? >> well, the view within goldman economics is the economy is growing very strongly and as a consequence of that, that actually benefits the more domestic orientation in the united states of the small cap stocks. they have 30% of their borrowings are floating rate and so the idea the fed cutting over the course of this year will have a one to one benefit for a

lot of these companies where they have floating rate on the balance sheet in contrast with the larger companies where there is actually pretty stable -- strong balance sheets but their debt isn't going to mature until past 2030 most cases and not that much is floating. >> fits with goldman in the march camp? >> that's correct. the idea there. some of the net interest income for a lot of companies with strong cash flow, strong cash position, should diminish as the fed is cutting on a five times which is the baseline for the goldman view. that's the thought process there. >> we just heard from citadel founder and ceo ken griffin about his thoughts on the market. he's been talking with leslie picker at the mfa conference. listen to what he says about the outlook. >> it's a good day to be here to talk about the market, which is reaching all-time highs, and we do look like we have put some of the economic anxiety of q4 behind us. good payroll numbers, good gdp growth and most importantly, inflation is moderating at a pace that's, frankly, better than the market anticipated.

we may get goldilocks. we may get a soft landing or even no landing. we may be looking at a moment in time where inflation this year is low 2s, the fed can start to cut rates come this summer, and we will see unemployment touch up a little bit, but the overall economy looks pretty good right now. >> i feel like that encapsulates exactly why stocks are running up here to record highs. how much of that view is in the market and can carry us further, or do we need a new catalyst? >> i think a lot of that optimism is validated by the data as ken was indicating, and that's consistent with assumptions we're making in our baseline forecast. earnings are rising maybe 5% this year mostly driven by nominal gdp and not margin expansion, and that general trajectory the idea of the market rising in line with the path of earnings would be

consistent with s&p 500 around 5,100. a lot of that is priced in already and the expectationsre there. i think the distribution of risks would be that the aggregate index of the s&p 500 trades around 20 times earnings. historically a high level. most importantly the big magnificent seven companies, great businesses, trade at 30 times earnings in aggregate as a collective group, whereas the equal weighted index and the market trades 15 times. given that opportunity set, i would say the risk-reward is more attractive in some of the broadening of the market and the other 493 stocks. that's kind of our positions. not by -- i prefer those not by an enormous amount but on the margin they do better. >> finally some of your peers around the street on desks are looking at dotcomes, the top five, do you look at that? >> no. i think the lesson of 2000 is very clear. that you had some of the leading

dotcom companies, intel, microsoft, cisco, expectations were high in terms it of revenue growth, they came in pretty strong in terms of the actual realized sales in 2001 and 2002, but it wasn't the initial expectations that they were being priced on in march of 2000 and so compansequently the multiples contracted. fast forward to today, you don't have the dotcom boom you have the ai euphoria. the companies are expected to have revenue growth in the 12% range this year, '24 and next year '25, relative to the rest of the market, 3, 4, 5%, much more modest revenue growth, as long as these companies can deliver on that revenue growth, then they can maintain a 30 multiple aggregate for those groups of stocks. that's a high bar to keep growing that -- those growth rates and for some of the companies, nvidia is expected to have sales growth by 60% this year, accelerating sharply in

'25 but that's the consensus expectation. they have to deliver on that. if that happens they can make tain it. the balance of risk would be more concern. >> we'll learn more in the coming days, starting this afternoon when the mag seven starts reporting. thank you. >> thank you. >> david kostin of goldman sachs. apple is betting big on the vision pro. views are out. we'll check in with joanna stern from the "wall street journal" as we got fresh forecast for iphone shipments as well. stay with us. re tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.

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moments ago top apple analyst writes his supply chain survey indicates iphone shipments for this year are likely to decline by 15% year-on-year. he says the main decline in the chinese market is the return of huawei and foldable phone as the first choice for phone replacement. a slew of reviews out for

apple's vision pro. calling it magic until it's not. it represents a series of really big tradeoffs that are impossible to ignore. cnbc's todd hazelton calls it the future of computing and entertainment. "wall street journal's" review calls it the best headset yet but iphone feature is hilarious. joining us is jeanette, wearing it right now. >> wearing it. how do i look? >> you look like an alien. >> i can see your eyes. >> you can see me? >> i can see you great. i'm also working right now and watching some youtube. no, i'm really looking at both of you right now. >> what apps do you have open and what are they? >> as soon as i press that button, i see a grid of apps. i can open apple tv, music, mindfulness, we could meditate together, safari, photos.

as i show, tap, that's open. that's it. >> is this the way we're going to work? >> it is a way i think we can work. there are some drawbacks. one of the things i was able to do this weekend is work. wrote my reviews, wrote scripts, slack, all of those things you can put these windows all in your environment. of course, there's the drawback of how long are you going to wear this for? you sit at your laptop all day, you literally all day. this weighs on your head all day. >> so, there is an endurance question here. how long have you worn it? >> my video review, i challenged myself to wear it 24 hours. full day. full day. i took the break to sleep. i took a break to go to the ski mountain in them because they look like ski goggles. but i wore them consistently for six to eight-hour stretches. >> headaches? no? >> headaches, eye burning, a little bit of neck pain.

>> are they meant to wear 24 hours a day? >> absolutely not. these are meant to wear a couple hours at a time, if you can go that long. i really think a movie is a good stretch to wear these. of course, if you're also laying down, that takes some pressure off your head. they show these when you're wearing them on an airplane. i couldn't test that yet. there's a special travel mode. i think you'll see these out and about with people traveling. >> for $3,500, who is going to buy them and for what reason? >> as i said in my review, i think this is an apple die hard product right now. these are for the die hards, the app developers. it's for somebody who wants to see a peek at what this future looks like. you put these on, that's why i wore these for the 24 hours, what are we going to do with these in our daily lives eventually? one of the coolest things i did was cook in it. i was able to set timers in my environment right over the pots. able to see the recipe on the wall. niece are future use cases when it's better, the battery life is

better, it isn't so buggy. this is a first generation apple product. >> is that what you mean when you say, i don't want to misquote you, but the idea this is not what we want yet or they're messing with our heads. what does that mean? >> right now these tech companies want to make sleep glasses. they want to make those, but they can't do that. this is what they can do. this is the best apple could do right now. it's really good. it's the best headset out there but there are compromises. until they get the tech there, i think they're messing with our heads. >> is it concerning, for lack of a better word, that youtube, netflix say, not yet? >> i think -- >> look, you can still watch them in the web browser. if they see a lot of people are watching them in the web browser, they'll make an app, they'll bring the ipad app over. maybe they want a more immersive app and haven't gotten around to it. we'll see the apps come. it's a first generation.

>> what do you think the best use case scenario is? >> i know it's not meant for cooking but i was blown away. putting the virtual stuff from your phone in your real environment. think about those times you're holding your phone, cooking is the one i keep going to because you're poking at it with your dirty hands, setting the timer, coming back to. also shooting video on this eventually. you want to be hands-free, like meta is doing with the raybans. that's not the use case right now. right now the best thing you can do is work and watch some movies. >> do you think we go back to any behavioral pushback the way we had with google glass where i think you look like a doshg or somehow conceited because you're wearing it? >> you don't like my helmet? >> i loved wearing them. >> that's why i'm wearing them the whole show. we have to get used to it. >> who looks like a dork. >> you remember those days. >> of course i remember those days. this seems like an at-home product. other than your office at home, maybe traveling are some nerds

going to wear this at the coffee shop? i wore it to the ski mountain to be a little funny. this is not where -- i don't think we can all walk around with these yet. societally it goes to get to more glasses -- >> you also did the whole experience? >> i went for about an hour. i think the movie theater has reason to worry because it felt like you were in an imax theater. >> absolutely. there's something isolating watching a movie. apple says you can watch with somebody else, if you and me were in a room watching a movie together, but absolutely. the only thing that's missing is comfortable seats. >> joanna, everyone should read your review. it's out this morning. and you look great. >> do you see my eyes at ll? >> nope. >> they did this feature where you can see your ooeyes but it' very subtle and you can't see it. if you want to be haunted, watch my persona. >> okay. >> thanks.

>> by the way, do not miss cleveland-cliffs ceo in a me.m "meyovers" will start right after this. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting.

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good tuesday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. the street debates the fed's path for rates ahead of powell's speech tomorrow. holly newman kroft at post 9 with how many cuts we'll get and when we might see the first one. upbeat outlook helping steelmaker cleveland-cliffs. the company's outspoken ceo joins us on the back of results. the president of the san francisco 49ers on the team's return to the super bowl and the future of sports streaming. right now, though, in the markets, take a look. we're under a little pressure. it was down 37 points. got a tick higher in interest rates. the ten-year note yield went positive on the session after job openings data came in a little hotter than expected, crossing the $9 million mark again. highest level since september. also consumer confidence came in a little better. data coming in