>> i'm not in it, but goldman sachs looks like a breakout in progress. i think above $400 this thing goes crazy. >> what do you got? >> newcor, earnings looking good. >> can't wait to see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm dominic chu in for kelly evans. here's what's ahead. another day, another stronger consumer number. confidence hitting its highest level in more than three years, but the labor market is flashing caution signs. could that put the fed on pause? with the fomc meeting kicking oftoday, paul mccullough tells us when the rate cuts may be. and five of the magnificent seven stocks reporting this

week. while microsoft and alphabetare at record highs, ai could derail one of those runs. social media ceos could be in for a fiery hearing on capitol hill tomorrow. the snapchat calls it a seat belt moment as companies and lawmakers rook to reign in the negative impacts on kids. who's taking the stand and who is notably absent from that? before all that, let's check on the markets right now. the dow, the s&p 500 and the nasdaq, you can see there pretty much moving at least to the upside marginally for the dow industrials. the s&p down about one quarter of 1%. the nasdaq up nearly 1%. checking on treasuries, the ten-year hitting its lowest level in about two weeks ahead of tomorrow's big rate decision from the fed. right now, the ten-year note yield, 0.8 it looks like. the two-year note yield 4.8%. let's get the bad news out first.

ups is sirnging on disappointing revenue. the shipper announced it's cutting 12,000 jobs and exploring strategic alternatives for its truckload brokerage business. and general motors, they're up a little more than 7% with stronger than expected guidance. the ceo saying that 2024 is going to be a strong year for gm's electric vehicles. that's the state of play in the markets. we're a little more than 24 hours away from the big fed rate decision. remember, this time a year ago, nearly every economist was forecasting a slowdown in the middle or end of 2023. well, they're still expecting one, according to the latest cnbc fed survey. of course, steve liesman has those results. it's the most eagerly anticipated recession that doesn't seem to happen. >> still waiting, still waiting, dominic. the cnbc fed survey forecasters still seeing a slowdown, dom,

but one not nearly as severe as they misforecast a year ago. they have backed off the recession call, but not a call for slower growth. let's take a look at the past here. here's what happened last year. they forecast gdp in january for 2023 at 0.4. they had another shot at it in june. it was 0.8. it came in at 3.1%. so well off. unemployment was forecast to be 4.5% in january, came in unchanged at 3.7. cpi, 2.5 was forecast, 3.5 in june, and it came in at 3.2. forecasters shared the belief that higher rates would slow growth to a crawl, raise the unemployment rate and bring down inflation. they were only close on the direction of inflation coming down. for this year, here are the numbers. remember that gdp at 3.1%? 1.3 now, a slowdown but not as severe as last time. unemployment rate ticks up to

6.3%. and the headline cpi number at 2.7%. while the recession probability has fallen to 39%, the lowest since the spring of 2022, there is a wide range of views on the outlook, dom. economists robert frye writes in with the survey -- >> zandi sees threats ahead, pointing to geopolitical risks. respondents see the fed move more slowly an the futures markets does. the probability of a march rate cut fell to 40% today, but just 9% of our respondents see a march cut. dom, that first cut, 70% see it happening in june. >> all right, 70%. seems like reasonable for later

on this year. steve, you'll stick with us here, because our next guest says while the economy is in a good place, and inflation is softening, powell will resist market pressure and hold off on cuts until july. yes, this summer, july. so joining me now with that view is paul mcculley, the former chief economist at pimco and professor at georgetown's mcdona school of business. professor, great to see you and great to get your thoughts. let's talk about why july. it does seem much more reasonable andconsensus and less aggressive than the market would expect. >> i don't have a huge quarrel with the survey that says june. there's no difference between june and july. i think the economic community is correct in being less aggressive in where the futures market is. it's the difference between economics and money management. so i don't have a quarrel with that consensus.

i think the fundamental issue is that there is no urgency for the fed to ease. in the fullness of time, they need to ease to validate what the marketplace has already done in easing financial conditions, which will be supportive of the economy. but there's no urgency for them to do that. it's only over time, as well as the fact that i think they have to guard against being too aggressive in their rhetoric about easing because of the risk that financial conditions will not just be confidentably easier, but too exuberant. >> now, paul, what exactly in your mind is giving the fed that extra time, that extra cover? what are the market conditions that you're seeing, and what exactly is the data showing you that says the fed does not have to be urgent about lowering interest rates to spur some economic activity?

>> well, i think the data is speaking for itself, including the fourth quarter gdp, the employment data, the consumer confidence data. there's just a lot of data saying that there is no urgency about easing because there is limited visible downside to the economy. and with respect to the markets, it's important to recognize the markets have eased a pot load over the last three months. we're down more than a full percentage point on mortgage rates. the entire long end of the curve is mirroring that. we also have the positive animal spirit effects of the equity market and corporate spreads are tight and getting tighter. so there is nothing in the financial markets that is restraining economic growth right now. and the data is fine. so when you look at that as a

fed official, there's no sense of urgency. you know you've got to ease in time to validate what the market has done. but you can do it on your timetable opposed to from the markets. >> tv, earlier today, ted g griffin was in miami. i want to read the quote that he said during that. the federal reserve can start to cut rates come this summer, and we'll see unemployment touch up a little bit. but the overall economy looks pretty damn good right now. is it fair to say that the economy is pretty damn good right now, and if so, why is the fed in such a conundrum? why is there a debate what the policy should be? >> we pay the fed to be in a conundrum.

they're supposed to be balancing between all of these things that are out there. paul has done a wonderful job not walking up this conversation, so let me do so. which is this. paul has skirted around this very, very important question here of where the right neutral rate is for fed policy, and what's happening right now is you have these two things going on. relatively high, above potential growth, and inflation falling. not supposed to be happening. all of that could suggest, dom, that perhaps the neutral rate is higher than we believe or the federal reserve believes. and the fed is not exercising that much restraint on the economy, which leads to this question. i think this is exactly what paul is getting at, which is if it ain't broke, how much fixing should the fed be doing? and the conclusion that some people are coming to, and i am learning right now that my friend, paul, has come to that conclusion, the answer is, maybe not a whole lot of fixing.

>> all right. so it was only a matter of time, professor, before steve brings up our star, and everything else that we want to look at. so let's talk about that natural rate of interest, the r-star, whatever jargon people want to use to describe those conditions. as an economist, what do you feel as though that kind of neutral rate should be in order for this economy to progress naturally higher without stoking inflation all over again? >> the first thing is to say is, we don't know what it is. and i operate by chair powell's maxium, which is that it reveals itself by its works. you know what r-star is not by pulling it out of the air but looking at the economy and see how it's responding to how it's growing with any particular given interest rate. i think the important thing at

this juncture to talk about is the fact that during the teens, from 2012 through until the pandemic, the fed persistently overestimated r-star. in 2012, when it first released the dot plot, it said that it was over 4%. on the cusp of the pandemic, it said 2.5%. so it reduced its estimate for a decade because the economy was persistently weak and inflation was below target. so the 2.5% that we have now, which the fed is still printing, as its r-star estimate, reflects the prior decade. so as we move forward and look at where we are in the economy and the resilience of the economy, it seems to me that 2.5% number is no longer operative. and i think it will be revised

up over time. and my instinct is something about 3.5%. so that would set the marker for where the new terminal rate will be in the easing cycle, not 2.5%, but 3.5%. which means that a tenure around 4% is fairly valued. >> okay. we're going to give steve the last word here, because i think he wants to jump in. steve? >> yeah. just very quickly. the thing about powell is he's not an economist. he has a deep understanding of these issues, but he doesn't come to it with a preordained view, in other words, a theory or a rule, that tells hums him that should be. that makes it difficult to forecast the future and makes him nimble. it's a bit like asking a religious professor to explain the religion, versus a cleric him or herself.

so you will not get necessarily a dogmatic answer. he's very nimble, and sometimes it makes it difficult and exasperating for the market to figure out where he's going. >> all eyes on the fed tomorrow afternoon. professor, thank you very much. steve liesman, we'll see you soon while a cut tomorrow would be a huge surprise to just about anybody, the markets included, the next guest says a too slow fed is what throws the u.s. into recession and powell shouldn't wait longer for those rate cuts. joining me now is chief investment officer at greenwich wealth management. you've been on this program before, and we talked a little about trends in the market and economy and otherwise. why do you think the fed needs to cut sooner rather than later? >> well, hi, dom. thanks for having me back. yeah, so the fed has done a really good job of bringing down inflation, but one thing we know

is that interest rate changes, monetary policy works on a lag. that's true on the way up as well as on the way down. the fed was perhaps too slow in raising interest rates, and now i'm afraid they might be too slow on lowering interest rates. we're very close to that 2% target. i don't think the fed needs to wait any longer. now, i'm not saying that they should be aggressive. in fact, i think by the end of this year, the fed funds rate will be higher than what the market is currently anticipating. and that it should be. but i think the fed should start cutting rates now, 25 basis points perhaps every other meeting, and getting it down to a more normal level. and i would also like to see the yield curve move. i would like to see long-term rates go up, and the fed funds rate going down to perhaps 4%. >> so a steeper yield curve, so to speak. that's a good thing. >> yes.

>> we're just one to two years removed, vahan, from the worst inflation that this country has seen in 40 years. 40 to 50 years. why is it that we should not be worried that inflation could be a problem again, and that the rate cuts maybe don't need to happen imminently, because we're still concerned about that erosion of buying power for much of middle america? >> well, the first thing i want to say is, why did we have this kind of inflation? i would say it's all or primarily pandemic related. this was supply inside inflation, not demand side inflation. so yes, the fed should have acted more quickly. but monetary policy was not really going to be as effective as straightening out the supplies and getting rid of these supply constraints. so i don't expect that kind of inflation again. now, one thing i am very concerned about is the geopolitical issues, especially

in the middle east. they do have the potential to push up inflation. so as a result, i don't think the fed needs to be very aggressive on getting it down to about 4% by year end is a good target. but i don't think they should wait any longer. i think they need to start doing 25 basis point cuts every other meeting to send the market a signal that things are getting close to their target. and we can ease up a little bit on interest rates, monetary policy is a bit too tight right now. i would like to see that yield curve, you know, go upward sloping. that's a very good, healthy sign for the economy. >> vahan, markets right now, for those not watching the listing on sirius xm, we're at session highs. i would like to take you to the picks that you would like right now, given that kind of setup and given your expectations for the fed. >> okay.

well, you know, right now i'm pretty much holding. you know, i do have fairly large positions in two value stocks, ibm and verizon. these are positions i've established a while ago. very recently, they started to do very well. they pay great dividends. they are fairly large positions. you know, things to add, i do like small-cap stocks. i'm also getting very interested in energy again. i think energy stocks do have the potential to go up, especially with the middle east tensions. and as far as pairing back, you know, i did have a position in nvidia. i've kind of reduced that now. i think that stock has done normally well. i now have about 1/3 of my original position. i'm not negative on the stock. i think it can continue to do well, but when you see a run-up like that, you need to take notice. >> ibm and verizon, stock picks

for you. good luck tomorrow, sir. >> thanks a lot. coming up, two tech titans, alphabet and microsoft trading at or near all-time highs. we'll look at the numbers and narratives to know ahead of the reporting. plus, we'll speak with the head of one of the biggest names in defense technology and manufacturing. a c-suite view on geopolitics, national security and what investors need to know for the year ahead. "the exchange" is back after this break.

welcome back to "the exchange." we've got big tech on deck. shares of microsoft up more than 24% since its last release. while alphabet is up more than 12%. and those two names report after the closing bell today, with amazon, meta platforms and apple reporting later this week on thursday. joining me now to preview this afternoon's results, axio chief technology correspondent and our own tech correspondent steve kovak. steve, we'll start with you. just how important, and i kind of know the answer but i want to hear you say it, just how important is big technology in these earnings reports to the overall market story for technology right now? >> yeah. have you heard of this ai thing, dom?

i think it's going to be pretty important, but more specifically, when we're talking about microsoft and google, it's not just the ai wizz dang stuff they're putting out, it's the cloud business. keep in mind, dom, these cloud business over at microsoft and the number three player, google cloud, they're also relying on a lot of afi activity happening o their clouds to grow revenue. this is what we saw a quarter ago with microsoft. they kind of showed a surprise beat on their azure cloud because of all this activity happening on openai and their unique deal as a major investor in openai, they use all azure products. so the better openai does, the more money going into openai and the more activity happening around openai and other ai products as well, that all indirectly benefits microsoft's cloud growth. so analysts expecting 27.5% growth there. we saw reacceleration a quarter

ago. so if that is a beat, you'll see a lot of optimism around the cloud business and the ai prospects for microsoft and similar story at google. >> i think it's interesting, because when you talk about what most folks who are not analysts who cover technology or ai think about artificial intelligence, there's maybe one name that comes up the most often, that's chatgbt/openai. the other is nvidia, if you want to be a derivative play enabling the whole thing. if that is the case, are there any other places in the market right now that are actually monetizing artificial intelligence, where it can show up in the results and on the bottom line? >> i mean, nvidia is certainly the most direct, because the chips are ahead of the revenue on the ai side. microsoft would be the other. i think it will be very interesting this quarter today to get a look and see how ai is impacting both microsoft and google. and they could be in opposite

directions. so with microsoft, people are looking for true growth. both in the cloud business as steve mentioned, but also it's going to start hitting the bottom line and the top line. microsoft is charging customers $30 per person per month for some of these co-pilot services at businesses. once those numbers get significant, that's also going to be meaningful, although they have cautioned that it is very early for that. on the google side, it may show up first as a hit to revenue. and that's because there is this theory out there that ai is going to take energy away from search, take views, take montization away from search because ai gives answers, and the search business is dependent on this unknown and serve up advertiser links, as well as guesses on what you want, versus one answer. >> now, the interesting part about the search debate is the reason why it's a debate is because you're seeing the ai

integration in the bing product. now, a lot of people, i get it. i get a lot of grief for using bing. i like using bing. other like google, i use both of them. but they have incorporated that chatgbt teacher into the bing search engine. so is that a compelling reason to show concern, because there's already an application being used for ai in internet search, even if it's not of the size and scope and reach of a google compared to bing. >> i think it's fine for google if ai sort of subtly comes into search. that's not the worst case scenario. the worst case scenario for them is that afi comes to replace in internet searches, especially the valuable ones for a particular product where alphabet and google makes most of its money. that is really unknown. anyone who tells you they know the answer to that probably isn't telling you the truth. i think there is some real risk

there. again, whether they bring ai into search or not, the real question is do the economics of search change? obviously, losing share to microsoft or somebody else or chatgbt would be bad. but so would it be bad if google maintains share, but search is just a lot less profitable than it has hose for cli been. >> steve, the microsoft/openai and the google ai ambitions are fairly well documented right now. if there were a company out there who you think has shown promise playing catchup to the topline ai guys, what are those companies? is it amazon, meta platforms? even apple is now being bandied about as devoting resources to artificial intelligence. >> the short answer is no. no one is actually, besides the companies we were talking about, really making money in a significant way. but you did mention meta, and a

lot of people are talking about meta because it has a different approach towards what google is doing, towards what openai and microsoft is doing, and that's open source, giving its model away for free. and that open source model will run on the clouds of these other companies, including microsoft. so that's a benefit to them, as well. there's this theory out there versus a closed system versus open system and how that can benefit meta. not as directly, obviously, they're not selling it. but also to inform their products, keep people more engaged on instagram and facebook. so that is one to watch. on the apple front, your guess is as good as mine, what they plan to do when it comes specifically to generative ai. we have seen hints at it. the latest version of your iphone software, the predictive keyboard, the suggested words it gives you as you are typing. it's using a little bit of generative ai for that. as far as like a superpower

generative ai siri, what that looks like, what the developer ecosystem looks like, those are all huge, open questions for apple right now. if you talk to apple, they'll tell you we do plenty of ai. ai is all over your products, you're just not interacting with it as directly as you are maybe like a chatgbt or something. >> all right. thank you very much. big week for tech. all right. coming up on the show, we're sticking with technology ahead of tomorrow's hearing on capitol hill. it is an event being described as social media's seat belt moment. we'll tell you what congress is doing to try to improve child safety online, ahead. isckft change" is ba aer th.

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doesn't cover at aflac.com pictionary?! welcome back to "the exchange." here is your cnbc news update. joe biden said that he held iran

responsible for the drone attack in jordan as he left the white house earlier today. he replied "yes" to a reporter who asked him if he had made a decision in response to sunday's attack. u.s. central command said the attack blew up near an area where u.s. troops slept at a base in jordan and injured eight soldiers. berlin brandenburg airport warned there would be no departures out of the airport on thursday due to security staff strikes. public sector union vertiy will stage strikes across germany as well as they are in wage talks. airport officials say they were expecting about 50,000 passengers for thursday. and the international olympic committee has awarded team usa the gold medal, naming them the new olympic champion from the teen event from the 2022 beijing olympics.

after a russian figure skater was disqualified for doping. the final decision could be open to a legal challenge, however, from canada because other teams did not have their points increased to take account for her disqualification. that's a sad state of affairs, dom. nobody wants to win this way. >> certainly for sports and everything else overall. thank you very much, bertha, for that. coming up, aerospace and defense stocks are trading near all-time highs with the ita etf coming off its best year since 2019. but investors still have a lot of questions about the role artificial intelligence will play in that defense sector. we'll speak with one of the biggest names in that industry coming up next. keep it here on "the exchange." fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one.

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welcome back to "the exchange." hosting its american hosting art official intelligence to tackle problems across industries ranging from defense to transportation. our own morgan brennan is there in washington, d.c. and brings

us an interview with brian schimpf, the ceo of the biggest privately held defense contractor and name outside of spacex. morgan, i'll send things over to you. >> all right, dom, thank you. that's right, we are here at the american dynamism conference. we are talking about one of the largest, most successful, fastest growing defense tech companies out there in the private markets right now. one of the key parts is the fact that you are building hardware around software. you're sort of on the forefront in terms of ai and national security. how does that speak to the increasing role that software and some of these new capabilities play in national security? >> when we see what's happening in ukraine and a lot of other conflicts in the world, the reality is, smaller, smarter systems become -- the quantity of systems become really, really key. this is a trend that we've been predicting for the last seven years. we're starting to see much more

movement in department of defense around procuring these technologies and moving them at scale. and software forms the core of how do i operate thousands of drones at once? it really becomes a software program. so enabling these technologies at scale requires the software. that is a key part of what we focus on. >> so the pentagon is moving faster. we see it in the investing world. something like $100 billion has been invested into defense tech start-ups of the last couple of years. how quickly can some of these new capabilities make it into the hands of war fighters who need them? >> if you asked the five years ago, i would have said this is going to be a much slower process. historically, this is looked at in five-year long cycles. but a lot of the movement we've been seeing from the pentagon on things like the replicator initiatives and a lot of other new activities they're doing are looking to get these technologies out in a matter of under a year, two years max in terms of how can we field these hundreds of thousands of systems very quickly. >> replicator is all about

drones and other systems, the d.o.d. looking to field thousands of these. are you working with d.o.d. on that program? >> we have a number of technologies that fit squarely in the bucket of the technologies they're looking for. small, cheap, autonomous systems that will have a meaningful impact on any future conflict with china or the types of things you see in ukraine and those capabilities you see. so they haven't announced what they are releasing yet, but safe to say, those are like the types of technologies they're looking for going forward. >> you just announced you will be working with the air force on a combat aircraft, which is the uncrewed aircraft, that will accompany the six generation fighter jets the service is developing. according to reports, it's -- boeing, it's lockheed martin, northrup grumman. walk methrough that process.

>> you compare this to where the department was five years ago, it would have been absurd to have a new company, that was primarily focused on software competing on what will be a multibillion dollar program. but i think there's been a realization that new entrants can scale and accomplish these problems, and that we take a very different approach in terms of how to make these things cheap, how to produce them in a different way, and how to bring that software first mentality to these problems. so we've been working with the air force for years on exploring how to think about these systems, how to actually bring an innovative approach to acquiring these. and they have done an amazing job of creating an opportunity to change the industrial base, which is something many of us thought would take much longer than it has. >> you mentioned what we have seen play out in terms of some of the battlefield cape builds, drone technology in ukraine, and strikes by the houthis on commercial vessels in the red sea and now over the weekend, the loss of u.s. servicemen's

lives in a drone attack. how does it speak to what drone and counterdrone technologies mean in this new era of warfare? >> the thing that's shifted, you look at who could afford these long-range weapons and these types of missiles? it was just large-state actors, the russian and western nations that you would expect. but that has changed. even iran, under sanctions, is producing these at enormous scale and doing it at a cheap cost. so the proliferation of this technology is massive. and while we built all of our defense systems around cold war era threats, hyper sonic missiles, all these very high-end threats, we built incredible but expensive missiles. every unit in the military is under threat, so it changes the way the d.o.d. has to look at air defense. it is now a scaled problem, every service member has to deal wit, and every unit needs these

technologies. >> of course, you're developing them. >> yeah. so we've been working on a variety of technologies. one of them we released last year called roadrunner. it's a surface-to-air counterdrone capability. and if you don't expend it, you can bring it back and it will land and it changes the dynamic of how to deploy these, the cost point that you can do it at and the types of threats that you can address. we really looked at where is the threat going to go of the next five years. it's much more going to be faster, higher risk things that we started to see iran bringing to bear into the conflict in ukraine. and they've been deploying throughout the middle east, as well as technologies that the russians have deployed into the battlefield. >> all right. brian schimpf, ceo of anduril industries, thank you for joining us. dom, back to you. >> thank you both very much for that great story. by the way, anduril is a

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welcome book to "the exchange." meta shares are up more than 14% so far this month after the company announced a handful of new protections for children and teens on their applications, and with social media scrutiny intensifying, a handful of ceos will testify on capitol hill tomorrow. julia joins us now with the potential fallout and what to expect. what exactly can we expect out of congress and their questioning of these ceos? >> well, dom, this is being called "the seat belt moment"

for child safety on social platforms, where big tech could be pushed to crack down on the sharing of sexual videos and pictures of kids online. meta, tiktok, snap, x and discord will testify before the senate judiciary committee tomorrow on their work to combat child sexual abuse material. now, the center of these concerns, reports grew from 32 million in 2022 to a record high of more than 36 million in 2023. that's according to the national center for missing and exploited children. now, senators are working to draw support for five bipartisan bills that intend to protect kids from online exploitation. proposals have drawn criticism for violating free speech or undermining privacy protections and potentially resulting in the removal of legal content. one social plat tomorrow that is absent, google's youtube.

now, investors will still be weighing how potential legislation or even the threat of it could rein in social p platforms that target younger users. >> you named the people testifying on capitol hill and youtube will not be present there. who do you think lawmakers will key the most on amongst those ceos? which of those stories for ceos is going to kind of resonate more as being ones that lawmakers want to latch onto when it comes to child safety? >> this is a tough one. i think we will hearforms tomor not their best interest to have this content on their platforms, and in general, their interest are in line with lawmakers and they are working hard to pull this content down. we'll hear a lot about how

they're already focused on this. i also think we're heal some of these platforms, most notably discord and snap, saying we're not a platform for open sharing of information but for snap, it's about connecting with friends. discord is about groups, whether it's a classroom or people talking about video games. so we'll hear a little bit of those there. and everyone will be under a microscope, dom. >> julia, thank you very much. we know you'll be watching that hearing very closely. coming up on the show, it's not just the magnificent seven set to report this week. we've got amd, boeing, and starbucks all on deck, as well. we'll have the action, the story, a mdz the trade on all three of those stocks in earnings exchange coming up after this break.

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are federally tax-free and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." earnings roll on today, and we are trading advance micro devices. boeing and starbucks ahead of their prints. here with our trades is victoria green. chief investment officer, also a cnbc contributor. so let's kick things off with amd. it's up more than 140% over the past year amid the monster and i mean monster run in chip stocks. raymond james is focussing on artificial intelligence and cloud demand from its biggest customers including microsoft, meta platforms, oracle as pc

slows down amid all of that. so victoria is amd the story a catch-up trade for nvidia? can people make money in ai? >> absolutely. absolutely. we have to go against the great ricky bobby said if you ain't first you're last. amd can come in second here and continue to make money, win place and show in this market and is worth looking at the stock. it will be all about that mi 300 accelerator chip and how well they do. but we need that to come in. it will be less. pc sales should be good. might see gaming slow. what's the forecast for that mi 300? are they going to hit 2 billion or not and can they raise that and jack that up further. >> only you, victoria, could have worked ricky bobby -- >> i don't know what to do with my hands. >> by the way, don't miss amd ceo, lisa su "squawk on the street" tomorrow for a first on cnbc interview following that big earnings report later on

today. next up, boeing reporting before the bell tomorrow. shares under pressure following that max 9 door plug blowout earlier this month. jp morgan is expecting regulatory scrutiny to define this coming next year. victoria, you say that this is in essence a job interview for boeing ceo dave calhoun. >> this might be one of the first times that investors will really not care about q4 numbers. they came in decently strong. we really are focussed what's the path forward? will the max 7 and max 10 get certification? we want information on that. are they going to pull their guidance? update their guidance. so much has changed since the end of q4. i hate to say this, i discount anything the numbers have to say because the new normal came around january 5th. there's so many signs we like. southwest today said, okay, fine, if the 7 certification is delayed, we'll take max 8. the max 8 is their most popular jet liner and 7 and 8 are fairly

similar. 7 are smallest, 172. the 8s around 200, 210. they're trying to compete with air bus. the thing here, southwest pointed out recently, it's not like customers can go to air bus and say i would like some airplanes now, please, air bus. there's a lot of backlog. and so, yes, the 7 and 10, if they are not certified, that could slow things down. reduction in guidance. so we're all holding our breaths. but we have to realize, there's only two major airplane manufacturers. you have to buy them somewhere. >> all right. and in another exclusive this time interview to catch, boeing ceo dave calhoun is going to be on "squawk on the street" tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. two big ceo interviews already there. finally, victoria, we have starbucks reporting after the bell. shares are down 13% over the past year as the company really tries to work to bring back customers who have been driven away by higher prices, even boycotts that have happened. wedbush specifically watching international sales and of course china's uneven recovery.

it's a very key market for starbucks. >> starbucks is one i'm cautious and lean closer to a sell for me because china has been a problem for everybody last quarter. i don't see them escaping that. the sales there just have not recovered fast enough. but for me, i'm looking at also what maybe happened with some of the unionization and cost there and boycotts that were not inconsequential and i believe in malaysia and some other asian and middle eastern markets you may see a slow down there. yes, we expect starbucks to be profitable. at is same point, i don't think they solved their china problem. they should have had, if you look at some of the rapid numbers, their foot traffic seems to have slowed a bit in the united states. they're trying to counteract that with higher prices, higher margins. i don't think they have enough. i think they're right for a miss because of the all the head winds they're facing. and their holiday, doesn't look like they got enough of a holiday pickup over normal volume to move the needle on ep-s for q4.

>> we have a couple seconds, 10 seconds left here. do you feel good about where the market is right now at record highs? >> it's make or break. we have our first megacaps and then obviously on thursday we'll get the other under the hood. i do like it. i think this ai run will still run. bubbles take a very long time to pop. we might be in a bubble. >> victoria green, you worked ricky bobby into it. thank you very much. we appreciate it. good having you here in person by the way. >> absolutely. >> that was victoria green, q square private wealth. coming up on "power lunch," shares of jetblue are lower on its disappointing outlook. we'll talk to the incoming ceo about this morning's results and the future of the deal with spirit airlines. contessa brewer is already getting ready just off stage over there. i'll join her on the other side of thit he.ke irit re

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