in the pc business, and macs, they are not losing. watch, air pods, app store, they're still relatively strong, so -- there you go. >> they're sitting on a giant cash pile, which investors like in an uncertain environment. >> they do. >> all right, that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq market side in the heart of new york city's times square, yes, we're back, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. the fed in focus. the central bank sends stocks to their lows of the session. the nasdaq's worst loss since october. plus, a regional rout. shares of new york community bank corp seeing their worst day on record, as the lender swung to a loss. what caught investors so offguard and what ripple effects should we expect in the rest of the sector? and novo nordisk leaps to a new all-time high. google's parent fails a key level test, and one investor is

checking out their target stake. we start off with the fed, warning sending stocks tumbling. the s&p down more than a percent and a half. and the dow shed over 300 points. and look at the ten-year, closing back in on 3.9%. it was almost 30 basis points higher just last week. the moves coming after fed chair jerome powell suggested the central bank has no plans yet to cut rates, with inflation where it is. cnbc's steve liesman joining us now with all the headlines. i don't know, i feel like it shouldn't have been such a surprise and yet here we are, steve. >> sometimes when the market hears it, it's a different story. the fed sending stocks and bonds lower as it slammed -- yields lower, obviously, as it slammed open a series of doors when it came to interest rate policy.

more rate hikes, just about closed that door, saying no longer talking about additional policy firming. on rate cuts this year, it opened that door, saying they were coming, but not yet. on march cuts, just about closed that door. not entirely shut, but mostly. jay powell in the press conference shut the door to the march cut, saying the fed needed more confidence inflation was headed to the 2% target, even while it's been there for six months. >> based on the meeting today, i would tell you that i don't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the march meeting to identify march as the time to do that, but that's -- that's to be seen. >> the probability of a march rate cut sunk from nearly 60% earlier in the day to 35%. but futures market trade is a may or a june cut, you can see there, is a near certainty, up near 90%. markets had not priced in later cuts, they haven't much changed how many cuts will happen this

year. the year end funds rate is trading at 3.86. now, that would mean, if the fed doesn't go in march, it would have to start doing 50-basis point cuts to meet the market, and the market is plricing in a one-third chance in may and 46% in june. the fed and jay powell are probably making a mistake not going in march and going to have to catch up later. melissa? >> i'm just -- mind boggling to me, steve, they're going to price in 50 later on. in terms of the statement and what stood out to me was the change in language surrounding the description of the banking system, there was language in it before, and with new york community bank now on the radar, i'm wondering how you perceive that change. >> yeah, might have bun of those things where they jinxed it on the very day that the fed removed that concern about bank tightening. you did have concern with new york community bank.

that sent earlier in the day the whole regional banking index lower, as well as raising the probability of a march rate cut, so that was interest, did it today. we'll have to see if that creates other issues that are out there. but overall, melissa, i like your comment at the top, it was pretty well expected. i was surprised that powell shut the door so definitively on that march cut, but the result is that, what happened is, the market said, okay, you're going to give it to us, but you're going to give it to us later, so, the net effect on financial conditions was really not to loosen it much at all. >> steve, take your journalist cap off and put your economist cap back on. this reinversion of the yield -- i mean, it is confounding a lot of people. it felt like we were going to flatten out in twos, tens, now we're reinverting. does it mean anything to you whatsoever? >> it does mean something to me, and as you know, guy,i had the party hats and the kazoos out

not too long ago for that 210 disinversion, it didn't happen, it got really close. you can see it there on the chart, as close as minus 14, now it's back down to minus 28. i think it would be helpful if the fed were to disinvert the yield curve, create a positive slope, would make it easier for banks to lend, it would dissipate some of the concerns at the regional banks, but the fed is saying, you know what, that's a risk we're going to take, because the need to stamp out inflation definitively is much greater than whatever might be happening either at the banks or the negative effects of an invert ed yield curve. >> steve, it's tim. i like you in both of your hats. >> my music hat is more important. >> no one better in that halt. what do we think of powell's comments on the economy? in the economist hat, what do you think about that? is that -- is that a surprise,

in the face of what people are actually looking for reasons why they might cut? >> no, tim, and i'm glad you brought that up, because really, i tried to ask a question about that, i'm not sure i got the best answer, i'm not sure i asked the best question, i guess i'd say. but here's the story. the fed has this situation where growth is relatively strong despite the huge rate hikes that have been out there. that says that maybe they're not really restraining the economy that much. on the other hand, it has inflation coming down, which tells you that it's having an effect. he said, by the way, that he expects rate hikes to have a greater effect as the year goes on. so, the fed does have this dilemma, and it's talking about risks being imbalanced, but when you see where they side for the moment, they're siding on being extra double careful that inflation won't reignite. is that the right call, i don't know. the real question here, tim, how big is the window for the fed to really make that decision?

is it something the fed needs to do relatively quickly? or is there a situation where if it doesn't act soon, the easieasing it will provide the economy will take too long to work into the economy? right now, the way powell looks at it, as you said, he said the economy is strong, he's taking that and saying, i got time to be opportunistic about reducing inflation. >> hey, steve, mike here. quick question on, you know, sounded like powell became a bit more data dependent today. he mentioned that during the presser. if you are data dependent, how can you take march off the table, say you're not going to hike again? it sounds like they weren't data dependent at all. >> mike, i think that's a good point. i think what he's saying is, i'm data dependent, but i'm depending on more data. i think that's the way to put it. and maybe i'm just helping him out a little bit here. what he said continuously is, we're confident, but we need more confidence.

and, you know, we're all in the room saying, hey, jay, you got six months, two quarters of inflation, the pce -- core pce being at 2%, the three-month is even better than that, even the service sector one that he follows so carefully is coming down. you'd think it's enough, but then again, you know what? you're on the line for the trades, he's on the line for the policy, i think what you're hearing him say is, i -- the one thing i don't want to have happen here is have inflation come back and have to reverse course. especially, by the way, i wonder if the election plays a bit of a role in that. it's pretty bad situation, i think if the fed were to reverse course in the middle of an election. better to be really sure that they're going to be going in the right direction. he did talk about a process. he used that word, a process, which tells you that they're not thinking about just one cut once they start, so, he doesn't want to, you know, whatever the word is, let the -- the monster out of the cage, until he's sure

that he's got it under control. >> hey, steve, it's karen. i've been sort of surprised at how strong gdp was and sort of continues to be. how do you think about productivity, or is there some other something that's going on that would explain this? >> it's hard to say who has asked the better question there, but that's my favorite one for sure. they've all been great. but the productivity story is one that i don't know if we're talking enough about, karen. you want to be really careful, because the productivity data is something that is very volatile, quarter to quarter, month to month, even year to year, but it does look like something is going on underneath the surface of the economy when it comes to productivity, where we are just producing more stuff with fewer workers and the workers who are there aren't producing more. i think it's early days for a.i. yet to be talking about that, but it does appear that productivity, certainly, after concern a year or so ago, has come back to the pre-pandemic trend, and it may be that it's moved higher, i'm starting to read some interesting day fa

data being put together by steve davis, and he thinks part of the productivity is linked to work from home, and the other things going on in the economy. i would say, karen, i think you are on the right track. watch that space very carefully, because it could betremely consequential. >> steve, thank you, as always. steve liesman, coming to us from d.c. let's talk about this market reaction, and we referenced this at the top. it was almost like, why you are so surprised? if we are offsides when it comes to powell shutting the door on a march cut, how offsides are we going to be later on when the fed doesn't cut 50 basis points? >> we're looking it through the lens of the fed announcement, or, the commentary caused the market. i guess you could -- but the vix was elevated long before the fed presser today, right, or fed announcement, which we've had that conversation on our call. and i think the market was looking for an excuse and we

talked about earnings last night. so, you can absolutely cast blame on this fed presser today and all the commentary out of it. i would submit to your earlier point, it shouldn't be a surprise and maybe there's something else going on right now. >> michael, what do you think? >> you know, the -- let's put aside the market move for a second, i think it was completely irrational for the market to be pricing in such a high odds of a cut in march. so, that certainly did not surprise us at all. i think it's completely irrational that the market is pricing in six cuts until the end of the year. that just doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to us whatsoever. the way that i look at it is, what's the higher probability, right with gdp humming at 5%, 3%, the consumer still strong, profit growth accelerating, that we're in recession that causes the fed to cut, you know, six times? or that maybe inflation stagnates? and i think that's what powell told us today. the higher probability is that inflation hangs out and that sort of 3% range, not that we're headed to recession. and the markets maybe haven't

really woken up to that yet. >> well, to me, the move of the day is the bond market, the ten-year. and if you look at a one-point, two-point rally in the ten-year, that's not an environment where the economy is a little stronger and where the fed is -- yeah, fed is essentially upgraded the economy, and things are, okay, we're pushing it down the road because we would rather risk waiting a little bit longer. that's a market that's doing two things. some portion of that is new york community bank, and we're going to talk about that, but some major part of that is the fed is actually going to wait way too long and push this thing over the hill. and that's really fascinating. over the hill meaning, you know, recession. and be, you know, and actually put too much -- the lower inflation goes and the more fed funds stay at these levels, everybody knows this, but i'll say it clearly, it becomes much more restrictive, right? and there's a dynamic here that people are concerned that the fed, what they told you today, the two things i heard and we just said it, the labor market's too tight, and we're not at our inflation target.

they couldn't have been clearer about that. so, the bond market, to me, says, that fed is not even close to doing what we want. it's not that equities have a bad backdrop here. the s&p's rallied 20% since october 26th and we had a great start to the year and everybody thought the fed was not going to be a factor. >> for awhile now, we have assumed that the long and variable lag effects have come and gone, but today he opened the door to, you know, you'll continue to feel it as the year goes on, so, that's still the wild card here, or a wild card, at least. >> one thing i thought was odd, i think that -- bonds -- >> congrats for having the best question. >> thank you. >> no, no. >> it's usually how it goes around here, by the way. it's always karen. but anyway. >> well, so, the bonds had already -- yields lower, bonds higher, before this came out. so, half of that move already happened, so, i don't know that this -- what seems like a big move in the bond market is actually that big. i'm not quite sure.

i'm -- i agree with you that we were set up for some kind of pull-back. the market strength over the last month has been, to me, quite surprising. you know, and then last night, you had earnings that were good to very good that were met with kind of ho-hum, right? show us something new. and then it's not surprising that we would have this, what should have been even a bigger selloff in the qqqs, i mean, they were off a lot, but if you think about how far they've come. i don't know, sometimes it just -- it might not be this particular thing that caused the selloff, but we were absolutely due for some, and if this is all there is, i'd be surprised. i would think, you know, the bar's still high for earnings the rest of the week. let's get to qualcomm, giving up earlier gahns, now afterhours session lows, even after the chip company reported a beat on the top and bottom lines. the call is happening now. kristina partsinevelos has all the details. kristina? >> yeah, it's happening right now in the building that i'm in. let's talk about the revenue beat. it included handsets as well as

the auto business, but its internet of things business fell 3 32% quarter over quarter. guidance was largely in line was estimates, too, so, that could be contributing to the stock drop. on the earnings call right now. qualcomm announcing they are extending their licensing agreement with apple, licensing, until 2027. so, that means apple is not only using qualcomm chips in its new phones through 2026, but it is going to utilize its licenses until 2027. separately, not to confuse our audience, qualcomm announcing a multi-year agreement, i asked what multi-year means, they wouldn't tell me, with samsung, to provide smartphone chips for their premium smartphones starting from 2024, this year onwards, so, like apple, qualcomm now has partnerships with samsung for chips and licenses. i caught up with qualcomm's cfo maybe about 40 minutes ago, who said the beat was driven by

their premium tier smartphone business. they are noticing customers are just willing to dish out the dou dough on smartphones. and they believe that willingness to spend more on phones will help drive generative a.i. to the edge, you know, pcs, smartphones, et cetera, and offset any slowing smartphone replacement psych that we're starting to see now. but i'll have details about that and much more with my interview with qualcomm's ceo on "last call." >> kristina, thank you. look forward to that. so, why is the stock down? everything that kristina mentioned would seem to be positive, the stock is cheap, it's underperformed the smh -- >> well, i mean, i just was looking at this -- because it was up 51% from october 26th. >> just the recent run. >> it added half of its market cap. in other words, became almost one-half -- anyways, sorry for the pedantic here.

qualcomm different from the a.i., though bulls in this stock have a 25 a.i. smartphone dynamic priced into this thing right now. you really had a dynamic where we already heard that the smartphone market was even doing a little bit better than the seasonals and you had this inventory pull forward by a lot of the supply chain. i think that's in the price. there was nothing bad here. i don't think you need to run out and buy it. a lot of people are hoping chip stocks pull back so they can buy them. >> august 2022, we traded up to $154 and failed. this is where we got to a week or so ago. the quarter was so good that people were expecting the second quarter guidance to be com comm rate with that, it was not. valuation, you can make a great case for it, but to your point, it's run a lot. if you are looking for an area to buy it, to tim's point, probably a couple more dollars to the downside before you get there. coming up, no sign the

weight loss drug boom is slimming down. shares of novo nordisk surging on its latest profit report. details next. plus, we're surrounding the big box trade. one retailer laying out expansion plans. one of our traders is selling out of another. why she says competition could make this name miss the mark. we're back in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc.

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welcome back to "fast money." novo nordisk soaring today after posting supersize fourth quarter results. sales rising 36%, boosted by the popularity of its obesity drugs. novo anticipating 2024 sales to grow by as much as 26%. joining us now to dig into the obesity boom, jared holz. great to have you with us. >> i knglad to be here. >> i don't want to say it's easy, but when there's more demand for a drug than you can make, it's pretty easy to meet expectations. >> yeah, i think that's exactly what happened. the quarter, i didn't think, was so gang buster. i thought it was good relative

to expectations, slight beat. but yeah, i think the party line from novo is that demand/supply imbalance favors them by a great deal, which it seems like it does. i feel like people still want to own the stock. >> i hear that zepbound is a lot easier to get ahold of and novo is saying they're going to increase production of the lower dose. and i'm wondering what your read is, because in theory, lilly should be much more effective than novo. so, are we going to see a differentiation? when will you start thinking maybe people are opting for zepbound? >> i think they are. i'm not sure what's more available where, i think it's regional and just based on the distribution cycle, things of that nature, but yeah, the data for zepbound is better. i think if you are a patient and you kind of are in the know in terms of what the weight loss data looks like and things of that nature, then you're probably going to opt for lilly's drug. if you don't really care, you just want something that's going

to give you 15% to 20% weight loss, you want to get whatever you want your hands on, which was the case back in the fourth quarter, sort of the case now. i still think that for the most part, this is a metropolitan area drug. it hasn't gotten into the rest of the country, which is why lilly direct came about. we talked about that earlier this year, and things like that. >> so, those are all the tailwinds. the headwinds at a certain point, what's the next thing? what's the potential, not exte existential -- >> or competitive risk. there's two horses in this race. >> 70 drugs in development. 7-0, right now. >> yeah, i think the -- the impediment for the stocks to keep on going up would be one of two things. payer push-back to the extent where you start hearing from managed care, enough is enough, we can't take the influx of prescriptions, we're going to put barriers, you know, in order for people to get these medications. or, you start seeing pipeline failures. either at lilly or novo. there's a lot of anticipation

that lilly is going to have this oral drug pretty soon. there's going to be data for it this year and that's going to be the next leg of the story for them, patients lean themselves from the injectable, they go to the oral. if the oral is not very good, that stock takes a hit, too. and then obviously valuation. i mean, they are leagues above anything else in the peer group. >> so, in totally unrelated industries, we've seen huge demand and oversupply. and so, we're at that point where there's this real choke point or not enough supply. how long do you think itimbalan? >> i think that's really tough to say, karen. i think some of it depends on the international expansion, right? this is a u.s.-dominated drug in the meantime. novo put in -- is putting in $6 billion worth of infrastructure additions this year. lilly three. so, at some point, when that comes onboard, and they can make enough drug, then the supply/demand conversation kind of abaits and i think the bar is definitely higher as we move

forward here. >> can i just switch gears here, that's the medical device makers, which reported earnings, they were all-time highs today and i said, you know, when you hear from insurers that medical loss ratios because people were getting stuff done last quarter, it makes sense that the device makers saw great sales and i'm wondering how much of that continues, considering the insurers are assuming that those loss ratios remain high? >> yeah, i think, i mean, it's impossible to answer, honestly. you know, if united and humana can't predict the future and have, you know, tons of data, i think it's tough for the street to figure out. but i would say, another few quarters of this, i think that's what the medical device companies are saying, i think that's the read-through for managed care, that at least for first half of this year, procedure volumes stay elevated. that's why gave uidance has bee strong. but the key question is, when

does it start to go the other way? i feel like there's going to be a plateauing effect at some point, maybe it's mid this year into the second half. and then we can kind of, like, figure out what to do with both groups. med tech on fire. managed care, the other end. >> all right, jared, thank you. >> you, too, thanks. >> jared holz. where are we on these weight loss stocks or -- >> well, you know, much in the way we've seen some of the same strength in the megacap tech stocks, we've seen some of the same strength here, and some of -- almost the consolidation within the rest of the ranks. i continue to believe the broader kind of value part of health care looks interesting. it looks interesting, one, because expectations are so low. and i do think you priced in a lot of bad news. having said all that, lilly reports in a couple days and it's a very important day for the sector, because the growth stocks need to continue to grow. right now, the valuations are things that i think are a challenge. >> bristol reports friday. >> i think so. and lilly is the sixth, but don't quote me. medtronic, they were getting

lambasted on the back of all this. they finally got off the malt, but in a pretty significant way. people finally realized, wait a second, there's value here. and despite the move, you can still own medtronic into earnings. coming up, a retail roundup. walmart planning a major expansion, setting the stage for its first super center in two years. karen is ringing the register on another name she fears could miss the market. plus, regionals in the red, as one bank gets crushed after earnings. the impact it's having on the broader space straight ahead. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back right after this. in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want,

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that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. welcome back to "fast money." walmart today announcing plans to open more than 150 super centers in the united states in the next five years. it would be the company's first expansion in two years. the large format locations will either be built new or converted from existing smaller stores. no word yet on where the stores will be or how much it will cost. shares up 1% at their highs, close to a record. but ended the day down about 0.2%. jeffries said that every single

time they've expanded stores, they've expanded their footprint that's kicked off a cycle of eps expansion. >> uh-huh. >> so, i don't know, good things to come here? >> well, i think eps expansion and -- is part of the stories, i think it's multiple expansion at walmart. and we're kind of seeing that in the stock. they've made significant investment into their technology, their people, and the question is, 165, this stock, it got to 160 in april of '22 and it's at 165 now. fortunately, a stock split here didn't rally the stock. it's not a tech company, and it's good to see. >> look, i think walmart has some headwinds with food inflation, or disinflation. if you start to see some relief -- i think they've picked up customers that they're not going to shake for awhile. i think to the detriment of target. i don't think walmart has to take off. >> had that blip in the spring of '22 when they had their inventory problem. they clearly recovered from that, and it's never going to

take off on you, i mean, that's just not the stock that it is. but it can absolutely work for you, in multiple expansion. it's always been expensive, but that doesn't mean it's parented. in this environment, the stock trading at an all-time high. meantime, target bouncing back after a rough 2023. up 40%, but one trader here completely emptied the cart. so, karen, you sold target yesterday? >> yes. >> why? >> you know, it was not a fire sale or anything like that. it just sort of looking over the portfolio and thinking about, you know, if you don't have a huge conviction about something. this one, i mean, bottomed out at 105. i feel relieved not to have sold it at the bottom and now it's 140 and i just feel like it's not expensive, but it's no longer as cheap as it was, and i feel like, you talk about walmart as a competitor that's important, but i also am a little concerned about taking -- picking off some of their customers in their highest

margin businesses, right? we know they have the grocery business -- >> home goods and things like that? the thing that tim likes the most -- >> yeah, i mean. definitely, like, mirrors and things like that? >> tim loves a mirror, right? >> shocking. >> you mentioned that one object. >> colored flower pots, i don't know. >> it's not crazy expensive at all, but i just feel like -- also, they -- they are going to anniversary that gay pride fiasco where they managed to piss off both sides in a very huge way, hopefully that doesn't happen again, but -- maybe that's actually -- that will be easier comp, but i just felt like, all right, it's no longer sort of a lay-up. time to go. >> quick take on the consumer, michael? >> yeah, the consumer has been a lot healthier than i think expected. keeps surprising economists to the upside. so, we like discretionary stocks x tech, big tech discretionary. the consumer is humming. when you have a 3.7%

unemployment rate, yes, the eci came in lower than expected, but wages are still going up. the consumer is stronger. we're okay with discretionary. >> buy a lot of mirrors. you were the one who said mirrors, right? you could have mentioned -- >> home goods, they have all the mirrors inside of, like, a window frame and it's just -- i don't know. sorry. >> let's go. coming up, rough spot for regionals. one new york lender touching its lowest levels since the year 2000. how the drop is impacting the rest of the banks, next. plus, a huge day for big tech tomorrow. apple, amazon, meta, all reporting results. and we've got a way to get into one of these names using options. that trade, and more. "fast money" in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podpodc. we're back right after this.

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move today, up more than 5% after delivering a beat on the top and bottom line this morning. the company holding off guidance, as it still deals with the fallout from the 737 max issues. paramount also higher. shares up nearly 7% after media entrepreneur byron allen submitted a $30 billion offer for the company, including debt. some reports saying allen made a previous offer of nearly $19 billion last year. and gm up 2%, continuing its climb after yesterday's earnings. the company forecasted strong profits this year. shares of new york community bank corp plunging 40% today, its worst trading day on record. the company cutting its dividend, lowering its 2024 guidance as it tries to shore up finances after taking over the failed signature bank. joining us now is bill mahertin who predicted the fall of svb. what was your take on -- i don't want to say the excuses, the reasons, behind the new york community bank corp's poorly

received earnings? >> i woke up this morning thinking i was going to go long the stock. i was tempted to go long, but you know, digging in, it's a mess, it's a real mess. >> what stood out to you? because it seemed like there were things that they were citing in their call that people should have known about or they should have known about, namely the two loans that were the primary reasons for the write downs, and then the interest rate environment, which is not necessarily a surprise, and, you know, having to increase the reserves because of regulatory scrutiny. all those things seem like you could have forecasted that a little better. >> yeah, i mean, it's just been a forgiving market, you know, the banks have all bounced, investors have kind of forgotten about the issues we had last year, but rewinding, nycb had issues, you know, early last year, and you saw regulators in the fdic step in and actually -- that signature purchase really was of low cost deposits, in some sense, i wouldn't call it a

bailout, but to shore up nycb lending situation. >> there was a lot on the call that didn't make sense. first of all, they opened the presentation with their accomplishments for the year, i guess it was. i still -- really don't understand what -- what made them change their classification on these two loans, how big are they, what was the problem, they talked about nonaccruals, but valuation, one's income, one's valuation, i didn't really understand -- i didn't understand what they were saying. >> yeah, i mean, look, i think bank management likes to try to whistle past the graveyard if they can, and everybody has been trying to pretend there aren't credit issues out there, and the commercial lending issues are slow, but they're there, and they're starting to write them. >> this seems to be new york community bank-specific. let's just play that -- >> he's not nodding, by the way. >> he's just listening to the question. sheila bair has been concerned.

it was almost a year ago, we saw three different banks over the course of a couple of weeks. is this isolated? >> well, look, cycles take time, and the issue all these banks have been dealing with is net interest margin and funding cost pressures. what you saw today was actually new york -- they had a lot of continued pressures on funding, and they actually -- the amount they drew on the federal home loan bank spiked again, and so, they're still dealing with the same issues the industry has been dealing with over the past year. i think what short sellers are moving forward is when does the credit shoe drop. and that's been slow so far. >> but -- so back to, is it new york community bank or the kre, which obviously got hammered, you can probably do the math, and a lot of it is there. i'm looking at a jeffries note, so, they used the term idiosyncratic characteristics. some of those dynamics, including meaningful commercial real estate exposure in the loan mix, 60% of loans, they're not alone on that stuff.

yes, the new york area's got some concentration issues, but also the rapid growth of their bank through acquisition, and it puts them in a different regulatory spotlight, which means maybe we know more about them than we might have, you know, a couple years ago. i just think, and maybe, you know, you've said this, you used the term whistling past the graveyard. i don't know if you're saying that's going on right now. it's been a period where we have kind of forgotten about svb, because the capital flight in the form of deposits doesn't seem to be as big of an issue, but the credit dynamics, what we should have been worried about all along. >> in 2008, the banks we focused on were banks that aggressively grew their lendi ing book. and those were really the hallmarks of the banks that ran into the biggest issues. banks that have aggressively grown their commercial lending books this cycle, nycb is a great example of that. they bought a significant mortgage originator at the top

and they bought a lot of rent-controlled loans from signature here. you know, they are banks that, you know, are going to face issues. however, it's just been a great environment for the economy. the government's been spending a lot of money, and so, the consumer's held up and the economy's held up and that's pushed that down the road. and commercial loans have longer lease terms and they just take time to ripen. so, this is an issue that investors are going to be focused on this year. cycles take time. i just think it's kind of an untouchable area for investors, and a lot of these stocks have bounced, you know, 50%, 100%. >> you do have two shorts, though, right? >> yeah. >> so, this is all around the thesis that the credit cycle takes long, but you may see the shoes drop in these examples? >> yeah, well, you know, a very highly levered reit, and, you know, has had issues. it is up 60% in the last three, four months, because people view

the environment as being more favorable from a fed policy perspective, but they've got a lot of wood to chop, a lot of issues. ocean first falls into more of an nycb type bank. valley is another tri-state local bank. they had a lot of multifamily exposure, aggressively grew their commercial lending books, and we haven't seen the credit, you know, shoe drop yet, but it's going to be an interesting year for them. >> all right. bill, thank you. good to see you. >> absolutely. coming up, more big tech on deck. whether the big moves in microsoft and alphabet could haunt amazon, meta and apple tomorrow. plus, we'll dive into the latest investor survey, the biggest fears, the favorite stocks, and where they want to park an extra $10,000 ghrit now. stay tuned. you're watching "fast."

welcome back to "fast money." alphabet and microsoft dropping today after yesterday's lackluster earning reports. 30% growth in microsoft's cloud business didn't appease investors. we'll get more reads on those industries when meta and amazon report tomorrow, along with apple. all three tech titans are out after the close on thursday. were you shocked at the -- alphabet in particular, i was

curious? >> shocked, no. to me, what i really wanted to see was growth in cloud. so, what people were harping on was advertising not being as strong as people thought. they did do a pretty significant buy-back, which actually put a little bit of a floor under the, you know, helped their earnings a little bit. so, it was a very good quarter, i wish they had been more aggressive on cost cuts, right? that was also a little bit of a disappointment, but this valuation, i think it's really attractive. i bought some call spreads today for their next quarter. but the runup has been huge, i think we'll see this time and again. >> all right. mike khouw is laying out a way to play meta without risking your neck. he joining us now with the options action. >> this is attractively priced, but the threads engagement make me want to use options rather than purchasing the stock. the march 1st weekly 400 costs ten bucks, i think that's very

reasonably way to make a bullish bet rather than owning the underlying. >> what do you think about meta? because meta could be bogged down by the same problems as tall fa bet's quarter in terms of the ads. >> yeah, i think in meta's case, though, they're -- they've got the argument on the valuation, they've got the argument in terms of, i think they're seeing a.i. change their business now, especially as you get into reels. i think this is a name where also we're not really paying attention, and i mean the market. it's not necessarily me, it's not the society at large, but what's going on down in d.c., i think, is something that we've seen this company weather before. so, i think meta's numbers are going to be fine. >> mike khouw, thank you. coming up, a pulse on the individual investor. we'll have the details from the latest investor sentiment survey. lle re in chief caleb silver wi bhe on-set to break it down. more "fast money" in two. there's no sure-fire way

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hi, i'm jason. i've lost 228 pounds on golo. so when my doctor told me i needed weight loss surgery, i knew i had to make a change. golo's helped me transition to a healthier, sustainable lifestyle. i'm so surprised just how crazy my metabolism has fired up. i have a trust in golo 'cause i know it works. golo isn't like every other program out there, and i'm living proof of it. (announcer) change your life at golo.com. that's golo.com. welcome back to "fast money. on this final trading day of january, you we have the latest investor survey, with caleb silver good to see you. what sort of shocked me is that your readers, the participants in the survey are finally coming around to this rally >> that are -- >> now

>> took them a little bit, over a year actually in december, they started warming up a little bit more, but now we've seen them as bullish as they've been pretty much in the last 12 months timing is everything of course, this was all closed yesterday, pre-fed today, but they were feeling confident. now, not ragingly confident, but more people are investing than they were back in november, for sure, certainly than earlier in the year 33% are making safer investments. that's down from 50%, so, they want to get involved here. and they're really favoring stocks and etfs. >> are they favoring big cap tech stocks, going more towards, you know, cvs and things like that >> no, they are back to stocks thebiggest stocks out there, the most wildly held stocks out there, the ones they are getting punished the last couple of days we've seen a new couple of companies enter the top ten, like amd, some of the chip makers, a little bit more popular. the banks falling out. >> presidential election in november 60%, that's the top worry for investors. is that historically what happens in a presidential election year?

or is that skewed higher this year >> that's higher this year, it was higher 3 1/2 plus years ago. i think they're worried about the unrest not who will sit in the oval office, but what chaos will that bring with it? and that was high in november. it's just getting higher expect that to keep climbing they are less worried about inflation. they are worried about the geopolitical environment, they are worried about relations with china, the war in the middle east but the election kind of front and center in their sigh keep. not affecting trading, but affecting the overall psychology >> you have done any work on -- flows tend to follow returns, right, so not surprising, market goes up, all of a sudden you get investors want to jump in. have you done any work on what that means for the market? contrarian signal, a bullish signal >> sometimes we're as individual investors a little bit late to the party, maybe they are right now. or, maybe they finally feel like it's a little bit safer, but if you still look at what they're buying, there's a lot of investors and they are mostly older, my age and older, individual, self-directed, they are protects themselves with

cds. but they are favoring risky assets, maybe not bitcoin, but definitely big stocks. >> back to the money markets and treasuries is that money coming out and is that the next wave for the stock market because i kind of feel like, as you see markets go higher, the fomo that is coming in this community, they were defensive, they did the right thing, they made a little money, but that money seems to be ready to roll. >> absolutely. 5% was nice, but now it's not as cute when you are getting 24% last year returns in the s&p 500, and you guys know, good years usually follow great years. there's a lot that can happen right now, so, they do want to protect themselves, but they want to trade. talk about trading activity, i just looked earlier, flows and buys and activity by retail investors, lower now than it was last month, when this rally was really picking up. we're nowhere near where we were in 2021 and probably won't get back there until we see a big event. >> and i definitely want to hit my favorite question

$10,000, where would they put that to work e etfs and stocks >> they are back in. they want to invest in the stock market this is a stock-heavy crowd. they are feeling better about it i wouldn't say raging, but they want to feel better. >> caleb, great to see you up next, final trades. at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

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final trade time tim? >> lulu. i'm short. it's a great company and they are certainly not going out of business, but it's expensive here i think the numbers tell the stock's got to come down. >> karen >> yes a quick hello to rudy, longtime

fan of the show. my final trade, google call spreads. >> michael >> take advantage and buy bank referred >> guy >> home goods up on the sale of those mirrors. medtronic. >> thank you for watching "fast money." welcome to make money. by trying to save you a little money. my job is not just entertain fix lane had days like today can come across a portfolio. so call me. company after company was going bankrupt last layouts, things were