are set to open. s&p up about 20 points nasdaq up about 100 points after a selloff yesterday. the dow jones up about 8.5 points >> apple, amazon, meta >> pretty much across the board. >> after the bell. >> we are going to hand it over to our good friends on "squawk on the street. make sure you join us tomorrow we got a big show from pebble beach. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. david david faber is back at post nine of the new york stock exchange ugly close to january, dovish macrodata, better productivity has the ten-year below 3.9%. our road map begins with the fallout from the fed as the chair says a march rate cut does look unlikely. mark zuckerberg's meta culpa. >> clever.

>> that's our executive producer's wit there he did apologize yesterday we'll give you the details and speaking of big tech names, we are looking ahead to big results. we've got meta, amazon, and apple all set to report after the bell let's talk about the markets after yesterday's fed-fueled selloff sparked by those comments from chair powell >> based on the meeting today, i would tell you that i don't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the march meeting to identify march as the time to do that but that's to be seen. so, i wouldn't call, you know, when you ask me about, in the near term, i'm hearing that as march. i would say, i don't think that's -- that's probably not the most likely case or what we would call the base case >> goldman pushes back to may, jim. b of a pushes back to june >> yeah.

>> they heard something. >> you know, it's funny. these people who were wrong, they're paid a huge amount of money. they should move to texas so they can keep that pay package honestly, carl, when you make mistakes like that, when you're that wrong, in any other profession, people would say, you know what? i want a second opinion. i want to fire that offensive coordinator. i really want to question the ceo. in our business, we give them a raise because they generate even more excitement. goldman-sachs -- here's my advice to david somlomon. call that guy in and go, do you mind if i ask you what you were thinking those were the days. >> those were, but it's marketing. you know that. it's all marketing that's what drives so much of what goes on on wall street. >> just marketing. >> yeah, of course you get an idea out there, it may not be right, but it's one that we talk about and clients engage with, so you've gone your

job. >> you're telling me that people are paid to be tauktd act by us and if they're wrong, it's just as exciting as the people who are right and get no notoriety >> have you watched espn in the past 30 years? >> shocking. gambling shocking >> you know what let's just speed dial schefter to see whether it's may or not i'm going to call him right now. >> that's the one guy who delivers facts >> i'm calling right now we'll find out if it's may >> don't call him during our show it's not even the same corporation. there's no synergy sat all there. don't do that. >> the synergy is someone who can be right and helpful to our viewers versus people who dug in their heels. how about the six guys there are going to be six cuts how about 13 cuts? >> every time we heard march, carl, plenty of people said, no. >> we had this discussion with vince reinhart yesterday, looking for march, looking for 250 jobs print tomorrow. you can't have it both ways. >> you're right.

and just because i want belichick to replace that guy, doesn't mean that's going to happen i think the problem is that why do people -- jay powell has been as transparent as anyone there is absolutely nothing in that guy's bones that would have indicated that he would do a march move he's incredibly thoughtful he is trying to cement his legacy he happens to be a really nice guy. i don't know about the music taste, frankly he's kind of like the -- he's got the "driving that train, high on norfolk southern." >> you think he's going to go to the sphere >> yes, he's going to the sphere >> is john mayer part of that. >> >> yeah, might be. >> i think so. >> wouldn't be surprised >> wow you take a couple days off, you come back with a little pop culture. >> i haven't been to the sphere yet. >> david faber is off this morning. >> yes, i was off, and i enjoyed it, and i hope everybody can tell that i enjoyed it >> it's okay being here was like a vacation too. >> st. bart's where the cool people go. >> you guys had gronk. >> we had gronk, dave calhoun,

lisa su. >> i missed everyone >> did you see lorne michaels? >> no. >> they got a rest stop named after him. >> i didn't see anybody. i just relaxed >> you didn't see jon bon jovi? >> no. >> when i was at st. bart's, i went -- >> this is what everybody wants to hear, jim >> bon jovi was smoking. i have never taken up smoking that fast in my life >> he made it look good? to the point about the markets, a day after powell, we get these jobless claims roll in, unit labor costs lower than expected, two-year replacing some of yesterday's action >> he told me, look, we got up six months a lot of people have got the wrong approach on six months they're thinking, well, hold up, the numbers are where it is. he wants to see six months where

it really is just going his way, and we don't even know friday. let's say we tick down to 3.5% on unemployment, or let's see wage growth goes here's the conversation. david, can you believe jay powell damaged his legacy like this when all he had to do was wait you can say, jim, i think that's a little exstream, and i say, no, he had a great legacy, and i think he moved too fast. >> do you think he wants the job again? >> wasn't he asked about that? >> does he want his job again? i don't know he's a thoughtful guy. he might want to read, just kind of maybe be a professor. >> seems like he enjoys the job. since we've established that i wasn't here for the last few days, talk to me about earnings a bit. we got some big ones coming. we'll talk about those, but certainly alphabet and microsoft, the reception, we'll talk qualcomm this morning better than expected, but guidance not good. seems like there's a lot of mixed sort of pictures out there. >> microsoft was fantastic, and whatever the stock did was meaningless. the analysts said it's going to be great, great, great, and then it was great amy hood was probably as

sanguine as i've ever seen they've got really good a.i. alphabet did a terrific job. people were worried about the guidance last quarter, what they were worried about was google cloud, so thomas curry just accelerates, turns on the jets now nobody cares >> although azure was growing even faster. azure was just -- >> yeah, but the problem with alphabet was curry and his group, and that's off the table. i think one of the things that we have had trouble with is how much did you make on the nfl how much and because they won't tell us, then people decide it wasn't any good grow up. >> we're going to talk a lot more about it, as david said, it is a busy session, and will be this afternoon actually, getting some news this morning out of netflix, and for that, we'll turn to julia boorstin >> that's right, carl. netflix is unveiling its 2024 slate of films, series, and games. announcing some popular returning series such as "squid game" and "bridgerton," but what's most notable is the extensive slate of games the

company is announcing, saying it has 88 games right now with more than 90 additional games in development. this year, it will launch games based on "squid game" and "rebel moon," which is no surprise but it's turning its romantic series "virgin river" into a game as well they have an animated game in the works based on "chicken run. the company touted "grand theft auto" as its biggest launch so far. netflix says it's working on a new sonic game called "sonic mania plus." netflix is increasingly investing in games, which has been part of its strategy to make the subscription service more valuable and reduce churn, but there has been speculation that netflix could find other ways to monetize the games such as in-app purchases as well as ads. >> julia, thanks that's interesting because just the other day, jim, i think it was moffett had a report called "more rock, less

maestro," meaning emphasizing areas other than film slates >> i think one of the things -- that may be they're just a little prescient, but i do think that netflix has, and so far in 2024, distinguished themselves as being well ahead of everybody. you saw the hulu going after now the crackdown. david, netflix is so well run, and they understand. they don't do it for the street, but it rebounds positively on the street it's 9:08. are you going to talk about disney's upcoming slate other than the one that peltz wants? >> no, most likely not >> what do you think of that remember when we used to be holding our breath to see what disney's going to put out? now, it's, what, they shut down one of the rides that was one of my favorites to fix it up. not jungle cruise. >> mr. toad? >> jamboree. right there. netflix has a content slate. me, i'm aggrieved that jamboree is shutting down, but don't

worry, the hall of presidents is still alive and well >> i love that hall of presidents a $244 billion market value for netflix far in excess of any other of these media companies says it all. obviously, the crackdown on passwords, the increase in subs. we've talked so much about it this last quarter. ad-supported coming on and gaming the question is, are they a threat to anybody in that industry >> no. >> no? in gaming? >> remember when time warner had that game? >> there have been -- listen, paramount -- redstone owned a gaming company for years and nothing happened there was a brief period where our company thought about ea as well >> microsoft, by the way, it wasn't very exciting the gaming part was the weakest part console refresh cycle. >> when it comes to our spend and netflix has talked about

this for years, they're just competing against time well, a lot of younger people spend a lot of their time gaming, not watching the way we do, not sitting back and just watching >> tiktok. >> old-timey >> tiktok got a little grill on congress >> we're going to talk about that >> that's the manchurian candidate, sinatra, still the better version >> and angela. >> oh my god, with the -- oh, when she comes in with the queen of hearts. >> when we come back, we are going to have a conversation about that hearing, zuckerberg's apologize on the hill. apple, of course, amazon, meta results due out after the close. ton of earnings to get to, qualcomm, royal kcaribbean. what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star!

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today. have you apologized to the victims? would you like to do so now? they're here you're on national television. would you like now to apologize to the victims who have been harmed by your product show them the pictures would you like to apologize for what you have done to these good people >> no one should have to go through the things that your families have suffered and this is why we invested so much and are going to continue doing industry-leading efforts to make sure that no one has to go through the types of things that your families have had to suffer >> just a remarkable moment between senator hawley, mark zuckerberg, and the families there. one commentator called it a moment for the ages. >> discussed this issue with mark multiple times, and he is very, very thoughtful about it, because it's something that my family was involved in

and this would be in keeping with what he would be saying to you individually this was actually a good moment for him, because i think that he has gone from being not really aware to aware to being -- taking affirmative action, and david, there are people who change stripes, and he listened, and he changed stripes on this >> is that going to be evidenced by -- what at instagram and facebook? >> they've worked hard to try to change -- >> reels >> yeah, to try to change things, versus tiktok, which i think is a runaway train >> you do? >> yes, i do >> they were there yesterday, also recipient of a lot of the questions. i guess meta and tiktok. >> tiktok has bridled at the suggestion of some that they were the place where people learned that it perhaps was good to protest against a jewish-run company that had big involvement with israel that was not jewish-run and had no

involvement with israel, which was starbucks. i was not able to find any other site that apparently talked about this, but -- and i know that's a little far afield, but i think that just in terms of the zuckerberg himself, he's thought about it i know thought about it, taking action, it's very hard tim cook's thought about it. everyone's worried about what happens. no one's just saying caveat emptor they are saying, meta culpa. is that okay he does talk about it. he's not, like, saying, jim, the quarter's great, shut up it's the opposite. very worried about it. he's got kids. >> no one really came out of there unscathed. tiktok, as you said, got some tough questions about his native country and passports and all kinds of stuff >> if you even go even for a second and imply that they have had any ties on this israel issue, they will just tell you, you're -- >> well, no, but there were

months and months where we thought tic ktok was going to be shut down or have to come up with some sort of solution to meet the u.s. government's objections to the service from a national security perspective. that hasn't completely faded away bytedance is one of the most valuable private companies on the planet their owner. so, we'll have to continue general atlantic being one of the -- on the board. >> yeah. and by the way -- >> philippe la font as well. >> really the finest people you're talking about >> there are a lot of significant owners there it will be interesting to see, again, as we enter an election year in particular what kind of heat that company comes under in particular given the connection with china >> do they have enough safeguards >> i don't know. i mean, you know, the safeguards have to be parents to some extent trying desperately to keep their kids from using these things in a way, but you can't,

i guess. >> you can't >> it's almost impossible. i know >> it is a very tough issue. people have lost relatives people who have tried so hard to get people to break the habit. i can tell from people in my family that it's almost impossible it's not fentanyl, but there's an addiction to it that's very frightening. >> as for the results tonight, jim, meta, amazon, apple, you say toughest day of the year >> yeah, it's focus day because, look, amazon is really straightforward and gives an absolutely great conference call apple starts late and is not necessarily going to help you. everybody's keying on apple guiding down the second quarter, but then we'll come in here tomorrow, and people will be saying, it's a -- what a surprise, they guided down in the second quarter that really bothers me meta, the world is his oyster now that he's done -- i'm not saying he had to get what he did

out of the way, but i hope he talks about the ray bans they are the first product that does not seem awkward, that you can go around, and if you, david, are an instagramer, it's unbelievable they're amazing. and i've seen them at work, and they're really -- that's an extraordinary product that didn't even get to ces, and love the fact that unlike the vision pro, no one's talking about these. i like that. >> listen, tomorrow is going to be very interesting. i always marvel at the size of these companies in general their capex numbers will be stagger. the revenue number, beat, not beat, just the size, the scope of apple and amazon and meta is just -- you know, for somebody who's been covering business for 37 years, you've never seen anything like it >> what about the microsoft quarter? i'm working on a company right now that had a billion dollars in revenue and they're very excited. i mean, microsoft, a billion dollars in revenue, that may not even -- i don't even think it hits the asterisk. >> amazon's going to do, what?

i don't know the number. i want to make sure i know it. >> most countries will not do what amazon does most countries are nowhere near amazon like russia? do you think russia comes near amazon >> the capex numbers as well will be enormous >> look at that. >> we love this. >> we had to take the other guys out now that they're moving to texas to get the $55 billion pay package. >> you could have added a seventh and made it lilly. >> i could have. i'm working -- that's a work in progress by the way, tesla's the worst-performing stock in the s&p. you really think you can continue to call it the magnificent seven? what is that about you know, i think that steve mcqueen and yul brenner would never have taken tesla to mexico because there's no way that eli wallach wouldn't shoot him eli wallach, one of the greatest mexican actors in history, who hailed from brooklyn >> yes, he did >> our requisite mag seven film reference. >> how can you not john sturgis >> we're going to get cramer's

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premarket gainers. some of them related to earnings like align was up 15, now about 13 etsy, up on this report of an elliott stake, which i'm sure we'll talk about lot to get to this morning don't forget, you can catch us any time, anywhere just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. all right, let's get to it "mad dash," two minutes to go before we get to an opening bell what do you got? >> qualcomm. i'm not sure if you're familiar with the work of chris at citi, but he's long been one of my favorites when it comes to semiconductors i find him one of the most rigorous people out there. he takes from qualcomm from a buy to a hold, and he determined what's happening right now he's lowering guidance he's talking about how they're losing share to samsung, which is something they -- he's not fooled by the automotive thrust, which is so small, and it's just been -- >> jim, we got a number after the bell yesterday that was far better than the estimates of many analysts who follow the company, so it was the guidance

that is giving this analyst pause? >> yes the guidance the guidance is weak auto up 31 he's making a big deal of it, auto is $598 million that's why i'm saying it does matter, david, because the stock has been red hot it's up. there are also people who give you a read-through apple's not going to have a good second quarter guide when we're all shocked by that, it's -- it's like being shocked, shocked that there's gambling, okay >> all right, but again, to come back to it, because it is samsung, and the -- >> they lost share >> they're losing share there. more than overtakes the gains they're making in terms of automotives. >> so -- david, you took a couple days off and you just figured it all out >> i'm back and refreshed. my brain is working. >> and they love you the crowd loves you. >> shares of qualcomm are going to be down

>> let's get the opening bell and the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board, it's sporting equipment maker celebrating its ipo today. we're going to talk with the ceo in money movers today. at the nasdaq, arq, celebrating a new ticker and rebranding. >> americorps is priced to move. jimmy, priced to move, my father would say. he often felt that way about christmas beginning december 27th >> move in a good way? >> no, moved because it's time to roll out of that one. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> so, look, maybe it's interesting they brought it all the way down here, but i know that we were hoping it would just be part of what would be the arm part of the ipo moment farm holdings, david, that was the last time that we were

dazzled. there are a hundred ipos in the queue. >> why aren't we seeing more what is holding any of them back, given the strength of the market, what seems to be relative confidence out there? it would seem as though -- and i don't want to be parroting bob pisani, but thshis should be a great time >> i speak to the people who run the firms, saying the same thing. they all want to get back to me. "let me get back to you on that." >> is it a shallower market than it appears >> i think it's the 5% solution. it's so great. the lovey blanket that just keeps giving that jay gives us david, 5%. i mean, when you call, like, i speak to my wife, what do we do that money lisa, give them 5% >> we talked about b of a yesterday, and she does see five as the tipping point where if it falls below, some money does start to move. >> that would be terrific. and our world would be amazing but remember, the first month of the year really wasn't all that

bad, especially the last day but i just think that david's right. there's just so much money on the sidelines, and it's not as enticing -- the market is not enticing i think. this is a market that likes tesla and bitcoin. >> this is a market. >> that's what people -- the younger people, you talk to them >> doesn't like tesla. it's lost a quarter of its market value in a month. >> i'm saying that's what they like, it's not doing well. i'm saying there's a great quandary going on with the people i know who want to bring in biotech, but they're afraid they're going get snapped up by merck or bristol >> surprise profit at merck. keytruda beat. they do guide in line. >> i thought it should be, look, there's a conservative company, and one thing they'll never do is promise you anything that would work with keytruda they don't go there. this was a great quarter

and keytruda's -- maybe we don't talk about it enough could be the greatest drug of our time until we start really getting with the glp-1s. credit to rob davis at merck david, you know him. they've made a lot of fatal illnesses into chronic illnesses, which is what you really hope for. >> and it continues. now it's just a function of what other drugs, with keytruda, are effective? >> exactly >> what is the cocktail or whatever, however you want to describe it, the combination of therapies with keytruda being frontline almost always for so many cancers you're right it has been a remarkable drug, and it has saved and extended so many lives >> he knows i lost my mom to kidney cancer. he would never say, and you know what, there's things going on that are terrific. he would never say that, because that's exactly what makes it so horrible to have cancer, to have a loved one with cancer. >> as for the glp-1s, cowen with

an interesting chart today, second month in a row where their survey shows a decline in the percentage of people who say they're using them they think it's about availability, which they think will reverse once novo starts to make a lower dose and advertise more >> i also, yeah, they haven't really advertised. i do think that the supply, the supply shortage is great, but also you got to find out whether your insurer pays first time, and that matters tremendously. >> certainly does. what'd i think of biogen saying so long to atahelm >> they have a better version. i don't know why they were still having the worse version out there. it used to be a really well run company. >> i guess it's reflected to a certain extent in the market value of biogen. >> you going to go activist? >> no. let's talk a little activism, though i'll do some etsy. i know you'll have some thoughts, and you can also talk about norfolk southern, which frankly, i got nothing on.

let's start with etsy. people know it josh silverman, somewhat frequent guest on cnbc, and obviously, jim has talked about etsy one of the covid darlings. the stock has come off its many-year highs, and elliott is the biggest share owner at this point. economically i'm not sure how their position breaks down in terms of ownership of common and/or associated options and the like, but they have a 13%, roughly, economic interest that would make them the single largest shareholder in etsy, probably have been building that up over some time. my understanding is they've been talking to silverman for a couple of months, having a dialogue about what he may do. full belief in him in terms of as the ceo, jim. but they've put a gentleman on the board, mark steinberg, an elliott partner. he's been on the board of pinterest. he's had great success there with that investment, and they are looking for similar kinds of

returns at etsy. perhaps given the time that they're going to be on the board, one would anticipate, over years that they can see at least a doubling of the stock price, given doing more on cost, winning gifting as he was talking about in an interview he did earlier, last week what are your thoughts >> my thing is it's been very amicable all along i think they like mark very much i think they did a lot of due diligence on pinterest and how terrific he's been i know that josh is -- i live down the block from etsy -- josh is someone who has always taken any insights you could give them and churned them and figured them out, and i think this is good for both. and i think that the -- i don't think that projection's that wrong. i think a lot of people really love etsy and wish that they were -- the stock was going higher this is how you get a stock higher, because substantive changes will be brought on and remember, pinterest really was a home run after he came in. >> yeah.

pinterest has been a -- >> i don't know -- people just say he's terrific. i don't know him >> i've met him a handful of times. young and obviously quite smart. >> josh is incredibly engaged, by the way >> what other levers do you pull here if you're silverman that are not already being pulled >> that's a great question i think a lot of it might be, do they have diffuse focus? they're always coming up with new things, changing the website, making it more dynamic. at the same time, josh, i think he could use more help that's all use more help. >> more help >> yeah. you know, he's an open fellow. when you speak -- i happen to like him very much you got some good ideas. like, i interviewed him in what was then the 92nd street "y. i asked some provocative questions. he was like, hey, that's interesting. he's a very open-minded person and a good guy, good family guy, all that stuff >> let's talk norfolk southern

now as well where activists have showed up. that stock is about 7% i'm not familiar with the activist >> no. but you know, first of all, it's been the worst rub it had the problems in east palestine. allen shaw is under siege versus csx, versus canadian pacific versus ksu versus union pacific. it is the worst performer. i've got a guy whom i think should become the ceo. pat otsenmeyer >> you found a new ceo already >> from ksu, who i love. i'd like to nominate pat otsenmeyer as being someone who can really do a fantastic job at norfolk southern i don't just come -- i'm not going to come, carl, with just, hey, there's an activist i like to go to the next level i like to present the ceo. and if i were joking, it would really be incredible >> you're not. >> i also have lewis hamilton

moving from mercedes to ferrari, but that's another story ksu is incredibly run. doing incredibly well. backed by how strong mexico is >> you talked about mexico and how important that would be. how many years did it take for them to complete that acquisition? >> well, but they stuck with it, and this fellow, i happen to be recommending ksu for years this guy, otsenmeyer, if they could get him, what a coup it would be like get -- the niners getting mccaffrey house for sale for $12 million on lake normal come on, hilt me >> jim, bunch of industrials to get to stanley, black & decker, itw, all done pa parker hanovan is the only exception. >> stanley was a terrific quarter, but the guide was not great. dewalt business, 100th anniversary, dewalt's doing very well the do-it-yourself guy, not

doing as well. charitable trust owns it would buy it right here. eton was a dynamite quarter. good, it's up 15%. they're not selling eaton. i do want to spend a second on stanley black & decker because that's a cash flow story you have 92 versus 79, but they had free cash flow 6.47 versus 6.11 moving slowly out of china reshoring in mexico. this is a story about rate cuts. if you think there will be rate cuts this year, that will generate the do-it-yourselfer to buy your stuff right now at lowe's which is more do-it-yourself than professional, not doing that well we've owned the stock right through, bought a ton of stock in the '80s. i would buy it with a 3.5% yield. if you're selling it, i suggest you make some calls, do some work, and accept the fact that if the fed's going to cut, this

is your spring loaded play >> one reason people think rates may come down is names like nycb two downgrades today jeffries rbc, moody's puts it on watch, jim it's an inside day so far. >> there, i think they bit off more than they could chew. >> with the acquisition of signature banks after the turmoil from last strpring. this feels more like a typically bad and worrisome bank quarter than what we saw in the spring, where you had these kind of uniquely positioned banks with large amounts of uninsured deposits lending to particular industries and having bond portfolios on a mark to market basis that were way out of whack. >> commercial real estate, residential real estate. >> we had some big losses. >> i would say it's more of a thoughtless buy. i always wondered why -- >> they did come in for a new level of regulation, given their asset size now exceeded

$100 billion >> on the multifamily frequent is that some of the changes to rent loss? >> co-ops. i'm surprised they were -- a little more due diligence would have made it so that bank was crushed. that bank was always one of the weaker when it came to provisions >> people who are going to rush to worry even more broadly, not sure that would be the case. >> and i think that, yes, it came -- i like barry sternlicht very much, but he was using that trillion dollar number >> in terms of commercial real estate >> yeah, and if that's the case, i remember meeting with sl green, and i basically was saying, you guys are dead, and -- i want to know the funeral parlor many people sent them an invitation to the funeral. here, it's -- that was when the stock was at $21, and now it's $44. so, let's just, you know, don't cry for me, commercial or residential real estate. >> no, although we do know office is going to be a real difficult area for quite some time, given occupancy rates and

everything else. but the question is, reserves already in place, how broadly it's going to be distributed in terms of the losses. >> right, and it's not at the major banks. they were just very -- they were always worried about the examiners. it's these smaller ones. don't forget some of the insurers who -- not chubb, by the way. chubb was, like, sold to you >> yeah. >> chubb always knew >> chubb always knew what? >> stay away >> oh, in terms of putting assets in >> yeah. >> there is some encouraging data on new york city office demand, which "the post" says we're due for a spectacular rebound as we bounced 40% last year the rest of the country up 19% >> david, you always tell me that's who i should rely on for my information >> well, you know, they're quoting stats, it's okay >> you know, i think it's a big comeback we get it from the restaurant numbers, that are extraordinary. the restaurants that are coming back >> we had a record year for airports in the new york area.

>> it's, you know, the question is still some of these buildings that haven't been fully upgraded to what you call a-plus that can't be made into residential in any economic way. what do you do with them it's not just new york it's throughout the country in metropolitan areas where you have buildings where the owners are going to give the keys back, and what do you do if you're the bank and/or whoever the owner ends up being? if it requires enormous amounts of equity and you can't fill it up >> and you need to tear them down, which costs a fortune. or you have to get real big tax breaks from entities that are broke because right now the tax base -- those paid so much more in tax than residential, so you need to have state you need both city and state working on it, and we don't necessarily have that combination right now. >> jim, few consumer names goldman adds target conviction buy. walmart's going to open 150

stores in this country over 5 years. rcl was up four premarket. >> they are such good -- they are really, really good at cruise ships i have to tell you, my hat is off to them. they have the best balance sheet. in the industry, their numbers are extraordinary. walmart's all the way back to where it was he's good. liberty. he's good. walmart's all the way back to what it was before it reported the so-called bad quarter. i think target is beginning to rationalize and get out of where they don't want to be, and david, you know, target's part of the story about residential where there stores are, they don't have -- they need density. you notice cvs is pulling out sometargets. target's doing what it has to do to be able to bring back itself. lot of good signals. >> the only fly in the ointment today might be peloton and their digital sub. >> yeah, going offever that, ba doesn't have that together yet

i have faith in it, the year of engagement, app pricing, the tiktok deal. i don't want to write them off because i think that in the end, to go against barry mccarthy has been a mistake, but so far, so good to go against him, unfortunately. >> they do guide below looking for an adjusted ebitda loss street was looking for a slight profit >> they don't have the horses right now. that's a tough one >> final, jonas on gm, goes for $43. the title of the report is parad-i.c.e. found just try to be the best gm >> "paradise lost" was a hard book to read my dad loved milton. he was a salesman. he loved milton. but i think that jonas, once again, alliterative as ever, excited as ever. i'm a jonas guy. i really am.

i'm a jonas guy. i think that he's in the pantheon of trying to make -- he's talked about entertainment analysis and excitement. he delivers. jonas is right more than he's wrong. and he's excited >> and elon musk is going to reincorporate in texas, get out of delaware, right >> the problem is that you have to tell the truth about how you got the pay package in delaware. you have to talk about how you're, like, divorce lawyer put it to your friends and cronies what is that about how about the fact that if he makes a lot of money, you make a lot of money isn't that enough? >> the fact pattern might not look great, but the other facts are it was a $60 billion pamarkt cap company and then went to $600 billion >> i said the planets were a bunch of cry babies, and it's not usual aligned with a lot of things with musk, but the cry babies, just sell your stock if you're upset about one of the greatest performing stocks of all time, go do something else

go play monopoly >> they're already headquartered in texas it's just a reincorporation. >> the 200-page opinion, hysterical you got to get it. >> mccormick was the same judge who sat for the twitter trial. she's a serious lady >> you see we're getting pmis. let's get to rick santelli on that >> yes s&p global p.mis, we're going have it shortly. moves up 0.4%. before it was revised, it was the best level well, since october, but now it's the best level since september of 2022. and do keep in mind, 50.7 is a bit of an oddity considering last year, 10 of 12 readings in this category were under 50. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break

we've been on layoff watch all week long. you've heard from levy's, paypal, block, lockhead, ups, today deutsch cutting 3500 jobs on a day where challenger layoffs come in second highest for january since 2009 and jobless claims are the hottest since august that will be getting some attention. meantime the d iows up almost 90 stop trading with jim is coming up next.

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it's time for jim and stop trading. >> keep track of disney and nelson peltz going after michael freeman for a board seat maria, a director since 2015, runs a family office and michael freeman, counsel for foreign relations. distinguished people it's a board and you can pick

two and that's who he's going after. the stock has been terrific since he got involved. i continue to think the positions in my travel trust, i would like to get bigger >> desantis suit getting dismissed, selling some of the india stake. >> the india stake worth that much a lot of things worth than we realize, but it's been a company that hasn't been looked at in a long time and peltz is concentrated is the way i look at it. >> before tonight because of what's coming after the bell. >> i will go down for a nap after i interview at 11:00 i fell asleep with some analyst reports on my chest. my wife removed them and that is not the way you want to be and then kevin hochman, the nation's largest seller of margaritas and they are doing very well. >> yeah. >> fantastic. >> david, did you meet anyone famous in saint bart's in.

>> no. >> you didn't meet anybody famous >> no. >> why are you telling everybody where i go, what i do. >> you stay at the -- stay at the -- >> you don't do that to carl because he's smart and doesn't say anything. >> he took the money offer. >> it's true. >> on the busiest week of earnings. >> yeah. >> life is for living, baby. i'm not getting any younger. i got news for you, news flash there. neither are you. >> life is for working as my father said. milton, imagine. milton cross and john milton pe liked. milton he liked. if you were named milton he liked you. >> we'll see you tonight what a busy day. "mad money" 6:00 p.m enng we come back construction spdi, isms on the way. don't go anywhere.

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good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber, live for you as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange take a look at stocks. the morning after the fed, big selloff yesterday, with the s&p down 1.6%. a rebound up 0.3%. nasdaq coming back a little. yesterday was its worst day in three months for the nasdaq, four month for the s&p the dow is unchanged take a look at treasuries as well they rallied yesterday and continuing to rally this morning. maybe that's offering some solace to stocks the 10-year note yield below 4%, 3.9%, even though the odds for the cut move out from the fed. we'll talk about that. we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three movers that we are watching for you one of the busiest days of earnings season, honeywell, merck, shell, deutsche bank, reporting results. we'll break it down for you this hour watching regional banks after coming off their biggest drop

since march of last year new york bank corp moody's putting it on a downgrade after the company posted a surprise loss, cut its dividend, stock down another 10% right now big tech in focus again, specifically apple, amazon and meta, all three mega cap names are higher after their earnings after the bell we'll get you ready for apple in a moment. >> you can see equities reacting to some ism data let's get to rick santelli. >> yes boy, there's a lot going on here first start quickly with construction spending. for december, up 0.9%. just the best since october of last year. now let's get into it. ism manufacturing, the headline number, 49.1 which means thatis 15 consecutive months below 50. here's the oddity, 49.1, still is the best level since october of '22 when it was 50.

that's how weak it has been in manufacturing. okay prices paid. this is not good and this is what markets are going to pay attention to. prices paid for january, expected to be 46.9. that would have been, what, nine in a row below 50. some good celebration there. but it popped all the way up to 52.9 52.9 that's the highest prices paid since april of last year and you want to keep an eye on that one. 52.5 on new orders that is a big surprise we had 17 consecutive below 50s. not anymore. 52.5, that's the best since may of 2022. employment, this is important because we have the big number tomorrow, jobs, 47.1 that means the fourth consecutive month under 50 47.1 is the best, well, just since december when it was 48.1,

but that's gets downgraded to 47.1 47.1 comping to that it is something incredible to watch to see that prices paid jumped the way it has. i know it's not the favorite inflation indicator nor is cpi, but there are some metrics outside of pce running warmeren that the fed may like. >> we'll be watching it. thank you. rick santelli. with better numbers there pretty much across the board on manufacturing and prices paid. the other data we got today, jobless claims did tick up, 224,000 the total so it was about 12k more than expected we're continuing to watch that four-week moving average to 208. nothing worrisome in terms of layoffs or stress, but we watch the trend moving up is not what you would want to see in a good economy. we're still at super low numbers. the only one i would mention we get the challenger gray and

christmas numbers a layoff from a private sector report, and they said in january job cuts totalled 82,307 and i thought that was notable the chart because it was a 136% increase from the cuts announced in december. obviously, that was during the holiday season they said it was the highest number of job cuts announced in a january since january 2009 as far as the reason, they quote mostly cost cutting which is something we followed from a lot of tech companies in particular, but also, they cited ai which i thought was interesting as that becomes more widely adopted and potentially fits into the cost-cutting narrative and productive narrative as a job replacement. >> bit surprising to me given everything we've heard thus far in terms of the impact of ai and productivity it would already be replacing jobs. >> we actually - >> it would take a while. >> there's a debate about

whether it's just supply chain healing and full employment or if it's already getting into the mix. we talked to lisa su yesterday and she said it's happening. it is happening. >> ibm said it too, that it's happening and they're starting to replace the back office they don't think -- companies like ibm and others won't say it's going to be a net job loser. they're going to use that growth and re-skill and train people, but it's something to watch. i think in the macro data. first time i've seen the in a release like this. >> it's notable. >> then the fed and contemplating what comes next. the money line from powell yesterday came about a half hour into the news conference where he talked about march. listen. >> based on meeting today, i would tell you that i don't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the march meeting to identify march as the time to do that that's to be seen. so i wouldn't call -- you know, when you ask me about in the near term, i'm hearing that as

march, i would say i don't think that's -- that's probably not the most likely case or what we would call the base case >> that kind of took march more off the table at least for the markets. the odds went down to 30% from 60%. >> you're taking march off the table for me months ago. >> i thought it was too soon the economy is good. they want more evidence inflation is moving down that was in the statement, and he reiterated it what does that mean. they want to see more reports that continue to show it not better reports but more of the same, continued reports. guess what before march we're going to get cpi for january and cpi for february we're going to get jobs for january and jobs for february. so they'll have more data in march to signal whether may which now looks like a lock, the market says about 100% chance that they cut in may, and even goldman took their march view off the table. >> yeah. >> though they still expect five

cuts this year, goldman. >> yeah. >> look, there's, obviously, widespread debate and widespread views across committee about when is appropriate to start cutting. but the fact is, inflation has come back down, core pce is now -- has a 2 in front of it. if you look over a six month annualized basis it's below 2% and real rates are now rising. they're in restrictive territory. it buys them flexibility to cut rates if they want and managed to do it without hurting the broader economy. is that because the inflation is still in services and wages. some on the committee are arguing that and want to see more evidence that comes down. >> to your point i think they're getting six more good-sized prints before they have to make their next comment about it. of course you heard the stock market reaction yesterday worst day of the year certainly biggest 1% decline for the s&p worst day since september.

despite that january did end with a gain. what is ahead for stocks as we kick off a first day of february which is sometimes treacherous for stocks joining us at post nine capital markets head of u.s. equity strategy laurie callseena. good to have you back into thank you. >> what did you make of the reaction >> i feel like there was so much on this market it felt like powell was the lasting straw we've had the deteriorating geopolitical backdrop, hard landing discussions back in the conversation this week that seems to have been a sudden shift in my meetings pap lot of people kind of parsing over the employment data, temp workers, that sort of thing looking for signals there. we had the banking blowup yesterday. the market was pretty resilient through all of it. i will tell you i've been telling people we should be looking for a pull back based on what we're seeing on the cftc data, afii, signaling we need a pause in this market i'm surprised it hasn't happened yet. >> february the second worst month of the year, does that

mean you are cautious for the next few weeks at least? >> i was cautious in early january and that panned out like two days but, you know, you do tend -- if you look at the seasonality over the last ten years and look at january, february, march as a whole, we often have nasty months at some point within the first quarter the timing does very little. >> how would you argue earnings are holding up in mag seven, six and the rest >> i would say getting these disappointing big tech earnings was not on my bingo card but should have. this was the one sector where earnings revisions were going up coming into this reporting season i think expectations had gotten too high, valuations are at peak, positioning is at peak if you look at the futures market on nasdaq. i think the bar was set too high here i think the rest of the market, i think as cyclical expectations improve, that should give a lift to the earnings expectations to

the rest of the market it will take time to play out. >> i think we should talk about the regional banks for a second, somewhat ironic because in the fed statement yesterday they took out the paragraph they had been including for several months about how strong the banking system was and then we got this huge slump in shares continuing today is it idiosyncratic or do we have to worry about the health of regional banks again? >> given more sentiment, we always have to be vigilant and given what we went through last year we have to be vigilant. our team, banks team, rate strategy team are in the idiosyncratic camp right now what i was noticing out on the road yesterday talking to investors, i didn't sense any kind of big panic. people were watching so i'm in the idiosyncratic camp for now but we'll keep an eye on it. >> clearly affecting sentiment and we are in a place where we have, you know, credit normalization, higher interests, potential commercial real estate losses, regulatory squeeze these are broader issues facing

the sector. >> what i thought of yesterday and i was getting on the plane, just as powell was starting to talk, so i wasn't sitting in front of my monitor, i did notice at that point in time the small caps were holding up very well, value was holding up very well, and most of the damage done on my screen through early afternoon was this broad-based weakness in technology and not just the names reported. to me what this kind of new question about the regional banks does is throw the wrench into the rotation again. i think this market is ready to rotate into other things besides big tech, but for that - >> why do you think that >> i've been sensing it in conversations. you know, if you go back to august through october, when yields were rising and border patrol -- big cap tech trade was paralyzing you weren't going to chase it at this point in time it was like a celebration when yields peaked and people were able to rotate late in the year. now people are setting back made

a lot of their moves i don't think that people who were in that camp of the ai related stocks, these big mega cap names too expensive to own, are not changing what they're saying the number of the questions i get on random data that people want hasn't died down. that's still here. >> we'll see what other doors open, if any, if this continues. laurie, good to see you. thanks for the time. as we go to break let's get a road map ffrts for the hour. few hours away from apple results. stocks did pose losses in january. >> plus, mark zuckerberg's meta kulpa on capitol hill. more on the fallout of the emotional testimony. >> shares of ferrari soaring after a bullish outlook and major news in the world of rma 1. big show still ahead ually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting.

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. shares of qualcomm are under some pressure this morning despite what was a beat in terms of the top and bottom lines for the quarter. it also did announce an extension of its partnership with apple let's get over to kristina partsinevelos. obviously, the guidance seems to be giving some investors us. >> you're right. i will get to that it seems like with this scenario apple needs qualcomm longer. extending its license agreement with qualcomm for another two

years through 2027 this after extending its chip contract with apple through 2026 last quarter even though apple has been working for years on building its own in-house smartphone chips. they just haven't been up to par just yet i asked qualcomm's ceo last night at their hq in san diego if apple needs qualcomm. listen to his response. >> we're very happy with the relationship with apple right now and we'll continue to be suppliers to them and see intellectual property as well. >> extending its chip contract with samsung, hasn't stopped it from losing market share as more companies make their own in-house chip. the android loss contributed to qualcomm's inline guidance, bank of america calling it lackluster, the guidance, and citi downgraded the company to neutral with a price target of $160 jpmorgan cutting its price target to $170 million you can see on your screen others about seven that i count

to this morning that have increased their price target and bullish on the name and highlighting the smal smartphone bottom shares are weaker and primarily due to the guidance and concerns that the june quarter will be worse for smartphones. qualcomm blames seasonality. >> thank you very much valuable commentary from qualcomm apple reporting earnings after the bell and our next guest predicts supply chain cuts related to softer china demand buy rating on apple, price target of 220. so is china the wildcard here tonight? >>. >> thanks for having me. china is the wildcard. the supply chain numbers have come down quite a bit. i would say the numbers over the last three months have been trending mid 50, high 50 million units to high 40 for the march quarter for iphone and that

would imply down revenue guidance on what apple says on the call for the march quarter. >> what about demand in the rest of the world and in north america in particular? it's been kind of soft in '23, hasn't it? do you expect it to turn off >> you know, i would say not -- i wouldn't term it as soft i would say it's mostly inline, not super exciting but not terrible either. obviously, places like india and brazil are capturing more units, but also lower geographies in the u.s. it's been stable, but china has been so far looks like it's been the softer spot i would say china for the month of december or for the quarter of december, actually not that bad. it's more like you're seeing softening post december into like the january timeframe. >> what do you expect them to say about the outlook given some of the trends? anything changing this year? >> you know, mine, clearly apple doesn't do a full-year outlook

they guide for the quarter the march quarter i would say consensus is expecting flat. on the supply chain numbers slightly down low single digits is a possibility for the march quarter revenues >> i know it's not as material to the quarter, but tim cook is on the cover of "vanity fair" wearing the vision pro and says i've known for years we would get here i didn't know when, but i knew we would arrive here big piece about spacial computing. how do they frame the potential for this category? is it any more important than it was when they say it launched a watch category >> you know, i think the watch took off really fast i think the vision pro the price point is much higher, and i'm sure they're going to talk about it and be excited, but from a stock standpoint at this point it's immaterial. the numbers and estimates are 200,000 to half a million unit, which doesn't move the needle,

but when you talk to the supply chain, it seems this version is in the supply chain, the next one is supposed to be the better one. >> we appreciate it. thank you. when we come back crypto's rocky start for '24 and what that might mean for the rest of the year when we come back, the biggest laggards, trying to hold a gain of 24 points back after this.

despite the approval of the much anticipated etfs, bitcoin ended flat let's get to dom chu. >> i can buy the rumor, sell the news situation remember at the heights we saw running into the etf approval process middle of this month around the 11th, bitcoin prices did hit right around 49,000 at the peak that we saw over the course of the last few weeks here in that run up towards the approval of those spot etfs. we've now fall bin roughly call it 13% at this point from the highs of the year so far tied to those etfs and launches.

42,746 want to put market cap numbers around that, $950 billion in total market cap according to coin market cap. we're closer to about 830 now at this point that's that 13% drop or so in bitcoin prices speaking of those spot bitcoin etfs, according to data from vettify, these are the three biggest etfs that track bitcoin prices the grayscale bitcoin trust about $21.2 billion, the bitcoin trust from ishares, about 2.8 billion and the fidelity wise origin bitcoin about $2.3 billion. take a look at how these etfs trade compared to the bitcoin they hold. according to data from why charts looking at the premium and discounts of the etfs to their underlying bitcoin holdings, the grayscale bitcoin trust is about flat, no premium or discount in the trade the ishares bitcoin trust is

trading at 1.5% discount to what the underlying assets are worth and same with the fidelity bitwise trust. the premium and discount to nav the etfs are closer, sara, in terms of tracking bitcoin prices than some of the moves we've seen over the last couple years with certain aspects of bitcoin related etfs we'll keep aon on those discounts and premiums back over to you. >> thank you, dom, for that deep dive. still to come, lawmakers slamming mark zuckerberg and other social media ceos over the potential harm their platforms have on kids leading to a surprise apology from zuckerberg our next guest was an early investor in facebook and has a warning for e ci miathsoaled chiefs stay with us back in a moment

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♪♪ whoo! ♪♪ light work! ♪♪ next victims. ♪♪ you ready for this? ♪pump up the jam pump it up♪

welcome back i'm silvana henao with your cnbc

news update. a london judge threw out a lawsuit by former president donald trump today that accused a former british spy of harming his reputation the judge said there was no compelling reason to allow the case to go to trial. trump filed the case against christopher seal's intelligence company claiming steel created a dossier in 2016 that contained rumors and uncorroborated allegations that caused a political firestorm before trump's inauguration. farming protests in paris spilled over into belgium outside the european union's headquarters the farmers are blocking traffic with tractors and burning bales of hay to demand leaders take action on rising prices they say are harming their industry. major league baseball and all 30 clubs are coming together to preplace a statute of legend jackie robinson. thieves stole it last week from a youth baseball field in

wichita, kansas. a city worker found pieces of it on fire at a local park. police are searching for the culprits back to you. >> thank you mark zuckerberg and other ceos of social media companies were grilled on capitol hill yesterday about the impact that their plachlts have on children. senate lawmakers accusing them of having blood on their hands, which led to an unexpected apology from mark zuckerberg. >> let me ask you this, there's families of victims today have you apologized to the victims? >> i - >> would you like to do so now they're here you're on national television. would you like now to apologize to the victims who have been harmed by your product show them the pictures would you like to apologize for what you've done to these good people >> i -- i -- [ applause ]. >> the things that your families have suffered and this is why we

invested so much and are going to continue through streaming efforts to make sure that no one has to go through the types of things that your families have had to suffer. >> elevation partners founder roger mcnamee joins us now and the hearing and your thoughts about overall policy going forward. first, just give me your reaction to zuckerberg's decision to turn around and address those parents that way. >> i admire him for doing that i think it's important to acknowledge responsibility in this case, so i tip my hat to mark for doing it. i don't think the apology itself helps at all, but i think it was an excellent gesture from an investor point of view when you look at that hearing, i think the two things that really stand out are, one, the tone of the hearing and the presence of the families and the large numbers of young people in the room gave this particular

hearing more gravitas than the ones we've had in the past there is some kind of mark it's going to leave this is the second point, the key one for investors, there is no reason to believe congress is going to act on this, this year, in fact, it's not clear when f ever, congress is going to act facebook or really meta, and the other majors, each have allies inside congress, you know, leader schumer has been absolutely reliable defender of interests in congress, and has the ability to block things from coming to the floor, and so when you looked at it, i don't think investors need to worry about that i think what they need to worry about are the lawsuits that are going on, particularly the ones of the state attorneys general because i think the cases going after design are a real threat and it's almost certain that they're going to lose that i think the other guys have other legal cases they're going to lose. >> roger, why is it almost certain they're going to lose

them thus far they have yet to. they hide -- not hide, use 230, 1-a as the legal justification why is that going to change? >> so, david, excellent question we've had the first example of a 230 case won by the plaintiff that happened a month or so ago. the extraordinary kerry goldberg who has been a defender of women had their privacy invaded or lives turned over, has won a case and i think it's the first and here's why i think it's different. 230 was created to protect internet platforms as effectively common carriers saying like a telephone company and they had no control over the content. the cases coming up now are about design and design is something over which internet platforms have 100% control. the cases against instagram, against meta's instagram

division, which there are a total of 10 cases, one of them is a group of 33 states in federal court, the other are 9 individual states in their own home courts, they all allege that meta allowed the design of instagram, effectively instagram designers there, to addict children and to leave them vulnerable to all kinds of material, and the problem here is that every time a court rules with meta, what they're saying is the first amendment and section 230, entitled internet company to knowingly harm their users for profit and, you know, politically i just don't think that's going to hold up and eventually some judge is going to go wait a minute these are conscious choices made with full information, and we have in the public record very clear evidence that the executives of meta knew what they were doing in the design of instagram. as a result, i don't think there's going to be any place to

hide they may win a few more cases but they're eventually going to lose one just the way the tobacco and gun guys eventually lost cases i think the stock market effect when that happens will be similar and if i were an investor today i would be at least planning for that. >> doesn't look like that's happening with meta shares near an all-time high leading into earnings today roger. >> that's -- that's absolutely correct. my point is you don't want to wait until after they crash before you share the insight you want to prepare for when it happens. >> doesn't congress get the blame here senator amy klobuchar when she compared this to boeing and nobody questioned the decision to ground 700 planes, why aren't we taking the same action on the danger of these platforms when we know these kids are dying, how many child safety laws has congress passed in the last few years? >> none. >> right. >> so why -- >> it's a regulatory issue. >> you first let me raise these issues in august of 2017, and literally nothing has happened

so congress clearly has blood on its hands also as does both the trump administration and the biden administration but the reality is that these companies are doing this knowing that the designs they make are leading to harm, that the harm is inevitable and those are choices they're making ultimately they're the ones most responsible for this you're correct that congress has totally failed in its responsibility to protect its constituents. >> yeah. do we end up with some sort of large fund of some kind, like tobacco? what ultimately, if you are correct, roger, what is the impact what does it look like a settlement >> well, to my perspective the right strategy here, because this is a problem that is continuous, because every year there are new teenagers, you have to change the problem, you have to change the design at the source you have to decide that there's going to be a much higher age

limit for using social media and/or you're going to prevent the capture and exploitation of data about minors, and you're going to have to sit there and have penalties that are maybe felony penalties, as opposed to civil penalties, in order to change the incentives to get people to focus on product safety and that's a lot to imagine congress doing at any point in time, much less in an election year. >> yeah. roger, we don't have time to debate it, but i know you're going to have an opinion on musk's pay package, on the judge's decision in delaware, on his potential move now to reincorporate in texas where do you come down on it >> look, if i were an investor looking at this thing the one thing i would observe is that tesla at least is really a phenomenal deal with musk. there's an interesting question to ask, changing the pay package doesn't actually motivate him, i mean, one would hope that this

would get his competitive juices going and that he would try to, you know, really buckle down and do something because the problem is he's been all over the place, right. he exhibits a lot of symptoms of conditions that would normally require medical intervention and, you know, i don't know the man, but he's created some amazing things and he's in the process of wrecking them i'm hoping the judge's thing will act as a warning and say dude, this is your opportunity to, you know, prove that this was no fluke. >> all right to be continued, roger thanks for your time. >> my pleasure still ahead, more on the markets as fed chair powell pours cold water on hopes of a march rate cut what comes next? apollo's chief economist joins us with his predictions with stocks pushing higher the dow up 113, the s&p risinabt g oua little more than half a percent. we'll be right back.

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welcome to "squawk on the street." welcome back i should say. stocks rebounding nicely a day after powell says a march rate cut looks unlikely the ongoing soft landing will keep volatility elevated torshin joins us now powell was careful not to declare victory on the soft landing idea are you not convinced? >> i think he was quite balanced saying on the one hand that things are moving in the right direction, he expects inflation to continue to move in the right direction, but at the same time he did say it's a little bit too early to come to the conclusion that we can already begin to cut rates in march from that perspective, he was really telling us rates are going to stay higher for a little while longer in terms of what markets have been expecting before the meeting. >> i guess one of the questions and out of that is it going to be the three cuts that fed forecast will happen this year

or the five that market is forecasting? >> that's a debate, sara, because if you think about it, what would the economy look like if the fed were to cut six times? would that be an economy that's weak, with weak non-farm payrolls, weak gdp, or can they normalize interest rates and cut rates six times without the risk that this might create a big rally in equities and in credit and in risky assets more broadly. therefore, i think they are right that they will cut rates three times this year. i think the market has been getting ahead of itself with pricing in more rate cuts. it will be associated with a much weaker economy if they were to cut as many times as the market is currently pricing. >> that's not necessarily what the market is saying the market is saying that inflation has been fought and won, and do you not buy the idea that if that's the case, then they have some room to be less restrictive to preserve the soft landing? >> true. if you take their framework they have used for decades, which

would say inflation cls down, normal rates can begin to come down and real rates can stay most steady. that would certainly suggest that they should begin to cut rates and rates more than what they are saying. the problem with this is that that does not take into account the reality that when they do begin to cut, it does begin to raise the risk of a significant boom in capital markets activity in ipo activity, m&a activity, issuance in ig and high yield loans. if the fed says green light, you can go ahead and take the risk that you want, that will come with an effect of creating a boom in housing, in wages and, therefore, ultimately maybe in the labor market, so yes, i understand what you're saying and agree that when inflation comes down, normal rates should be coming down, but the reason why i think they will proceed cautiously is because of the effects of their actions on risk naig financial markets

>> great chart from you looking at the percentage of household debt that's fixed, almost 90%. you argue that's one reason why the transmission mechanism has been so weak are we at a stage where we're just waiting for the job market to crack, and is that happening? >> so i mean it depends on how much weight you want to put on the jobless claims numbers that came out this morning and adp yesterday was also not particularly good, so let's see what we get with non-farm payrolls tomorrow. if the job market starts cracking and we see a significant slowdown in the labor market it will set off a number of chain reactions, not only with housing beginning to slow down but we're already seeing the consumer being vulnerable, highly levered consumers are seeing delinquency rates and high levered companies are seeing high levels, the vulnerability and the main issue is the commercial real estate. if people start losing their jobs and office space also takes another hit, we could begin to

see more of these things we have talked about over the last year with the banking sector being in trouble. it is a more fragile slowdown that we're seeing here as a result of this so far so good, but if the labor market does crack, that would indeed bring along a number of other problems. >> you think that a would have to be violent to resuscitate the march argument, yes? >> the debate, of course, is that well, if the labor market does begin to weaken more materially, tomorrow, then i do think they will have to put a cut in march on the table. the bigger skin isdiscussion is every market is pricing a soft landing and almost goldilocks everywhere and what i'm pointing out is there are other scenarios that don't have a probability, there's a scenario if we get a weaker labor market over the next several months would bring along a number of other things that can increase the risk again of a harder landing. we're not out of the woods in terms of declaring victory on inflation getting back to 2% but

also not on declaring victory this will be a soft landing. there's a lot of things that can happen to the upside, if they begin to cut too quickly, and it becomes to rebound, the bottom line, soft landing almost priced with 100% probability but the two other scenarios, re-acceleration and hard landing do not in my view have a 0% likelihood. >> while we're talking about potential risks, i mean i think it's worth bringing up the regional banks and the new york community bankcorp, not necessarily a systemic issue right now, but it does revive sentiment concerns around regional banks and gives us a little deja vu back to march do you worry about the a share price that has been in -- about a share price in freefall here >> the banking sector holds about $3 trillion in commercial reels real estate loans and if you look at what has happened to the price per square foot for office is down about 40% from the peak. you can begin to figure out

those who hold office and more broadly commercial real estate that has declined in value, they, of course, are likely facing some challenges, in particular, if the economy does begin to slow down note that we have had these banking problems in a solid, relatively strong economy. page one in your imf textbook would tell you if you see a slowdown and recession it normally comes with more problems in the banking sector so the fact that we have had problems in the banking sector even before the economy has started to slow down, that does answer your question and that does tell us that yes, there are still fairly bumpy roads ahead in particular when it comes to commercial real estate. >> don't you think it's a little strange they took out, i don't know why, the u.s. banking system as sound and resilient from the fed statement i would assume they did it because people stopped worrying about regional banks but that was new in yesterday's statement. >> there were a number of changes in the statement that indeed would lift some eyebrows in terms of what are they telling us here, and the fact

that we now for some time for the last several months have been saying maybe the economy is not going to slow down, maybe to round out the discussion maybe it is the debate we went into 2023 saying recession is coming, now we all went into 2024 and said there's no recession, it's a soft landing. maybe we could have the exact opposite scenario of last year, and maybe the slowdown is finally coming in 2024 so, it would be a little ironic that the pendulum swung too much in the other direction. >> thank you appreciate it. coming up in the next hour, the ceo of one of the world's largest oil companies, shell, as shares rise on this full-year profit beat. not the only earnings name to get notice today check out shares of ferrari, a big outperformer over the last year, adding to some gains today. we're going to talk about why in just a moment. ith. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy.

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look at shares of ferrari. racing higher this morning after strong numbers, pretty positive outlook, and some big news in the world of formula one let's get to robert frank with the breakdown. >> ferrari reporting a beat on sales and meeting those earnings

target it was the 2024 outlook that analysts really liked, reaffirming the guidance for 7% earnings growth to $2.6 billion. ceo saying there's no sign the wealthy are slowing down on buying ferraris. he said, quote, demand is very strong into 2025 and '26 quote, there is not an impact of any kind on our clients that he could see. hybrid cars account for 44% of all ferraris sold. that has doubled over the past year they will launch their first ever ev in 2025. a lot of their profit growth is coming from personalization, that's buyers customizing their cars and selling a lot more expensive models there was no mention of lewis hamilton joining he could join in 2025. commercial activity, they're about 10% of sales right now he's saying f1 could be lower this year due to higher costs and spending

now ferrari's win at le mans, that's the first time they competed there in 50 years, that was celebrated and good for the dna. ferrari's market cap is 50% higher than ford or gm at $52 billion. >> i would say the lewis hamilton news is having an impact he's an international superstar, and, remember, there was all this drama with the head of the mercedes team last year about lewis re-signing we interviewed him on this show about it just take a listen >> we're still talking we have such a good relationship that we dread the moment we need to talk about money. so, it's going to happen soon. >> we need to make some news here soon you have a time frame of when that's going to happen

>> soon. i think we're talking more days than weeks but if i commit to a date now, then everybody will ask in montreal on the weekend what happened to the days. >> you should get it done before then, it sounds like. >> yeah, we're trying hard at least i get to see him today. maybe we can talk about it. >> that was last june. turns out they did sign. they signed lewis for this season, '24, and an option for '25. sounds like he took the option to go with ferrari, which is only going to make for a bit of an awkward start to this season where he'll be racing for mercedes it's a huge deal if there's one thing i learned about makes the documentary, the brand halo the formula one teams get, it's there. i mean, it's win on sunday, sell on monday. and there's a serious correlation. and i think just lewis' star power to ferrari is a big deal. >> one thing i would say is ferrari hasn't won a constructor's title in 15 years but sales of cars have more than

doubled. this would be icing on the cake if they can get him and expose that brand even further. >> yeah. good point well, people are certainly excited about it stock's up another 9.5% on all that good news robert, thank you. >> always a marvel at the market cap, as robert pointed out approaching $100 billion for ferrari. don't miss the ceos of shell and royal caribbean in the next hour of course, our live market coverage also continues right after this this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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good thursday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live from post nine of the new york stock exchange huge hour ahead. ceos joining us on earnings and we'll talk to the ceo of amerisports going public today a debut investors are hoping will turn around a muted ipo market. >> let's begin with the market stocks have lost some ground here dow has gone red as the street