competitions where they go up against other schools. he is a coach and a great teacher. he taught both of my sons. good luck, mr. weber. >> closing bell starts right now. thank you very much. >> there you go. guys, welcome to closing bell. i am scott walker live at the new york stock exchange. we begin with the countdown to three of the most important earnings reports of the season. apple, amazon, meta hitting in just about one hour. we've got ownership of all of those stocks and we will hear from the experts in a few minutes to get you set up. in the meantime, york scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation looks like this. nice bounce back for the average is today following the markets marching back from a melt down just one day ago. tech, a big reason why as most of the mega names are on the

rise today. interesting moves in interest rates to their falling, despite the fact that there will be a delay, apparently, in rate cuts, according to powell. tech's toughest talk yet with key earnings looming in overtime. with us to debate and discuss what is at stake in overtime is stephanie link, hightower's chief strategist and portfolio manager. she has bought more amazon stock. malcolm owns apple and amazon and several other names as well. all, of course, cnbc contributors. welcome, everybody. everyone owns apple. stephanie, you are a little underweight in the name. it is the worst performing of the mega caps since the market took off. what do you think investors need to hear after four consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth?

>> well, it is definitely a show me story. 50% of their business which is iphones. if that is only going to be up 2 to 3%. if they can beat that number, that's interesting but that is 22% of revenue and it's expected to be 10 to 12% growth. that will be important to see if they can come in above. and china, how bad is iphone 15 expected to be double digits? the mixture is all over the place with margins and revenues but what you need to hear is better growth in services going forward. that is the exciting part of the story. and some sort of excitement around the iphone 16 because is not only the 15 that is bland, but the 16 as well. what is the visibility for half of their business overall? >> we have seen time and time again doubt apple and doubt this stock. joe, is it fair to say that this comes in -- and this is so

strange to say it -- with the most uncertainty given the fact you've got the consecutive quarters of revenue growth, the stocks have given up their title as the most valuable in the market to microsoft. you have reports of double-digit declines in iphone shipments. we have a lot of questions to be answered. >> yes, absolutely the expectation for apple among the max 7 or whatever we're calling them today is the lowest. you have regulatory concerns in europe. stephanie already cited what's going on in china. do i get excited about 1% revenue growth? okay, we will not 25 consecutive quarters, but 1% i will really get excited about that. i just think this company has gotten a pass because they have so much cash. they've got the balance sheet and you know they will buy back their shares. i want to hear the vision for

a.i. i want to know what their vision is for a.i. how will they adopt it at apple? >> just to steal that word for you, it is about their vision pro. there is a big glossy vanity fair spread hitting the news stands so to speak today. you know, they call it tim cook's moonshot. will it be successful? it is a big deal and a big bet. >> i will not doubt the potential success of it, but i need more than just the hardware . we need to understand where we are going with a.i. and dean what's interesting? for the first time, i don't think analysts are afraid to downgrade apple anymore. that was something that was unacceptable. if you downgraded apple after an earnings report, it seems as the it is becoming more popular. i want to see

where we are the next several days. >> malcolm, the analysts have learned the hard way when they downgrade apple because in many respects, it's near term bottom. 167, 169 not that long ago and there were haters all over the place, saying the chart looks terrible. what is going on with this company and its growth trajectory? has it stalled? what will happen here? it has roared back north of 185 and it sits right about that and has moved towards 200. how do you feel about this going into tonight? >> i don't think anything you said to this point on apple is incorrect. to the question you just asked me, the reason apple is able to hang in there is because of their past performance, right? their reputation is second, third to the party figuring out how to blow it out of the water. analysts have been scared to downgrade and not even reluctant, scared to downgrade

for fear of being caught out and even after apple gives us lackluster earnings once again today, they will still get a pass all the way up until june when you get wwdc. if there is nothing substantial telling of how apple will integrate a.i. into the ecosystem by that point, we could see a significant sell off of apple shares. we will see them regardless of what the numbers are today. it goes sideways between now and then. market performance between now and then. they will get that mulligan based on their reputation. >> the other point, steph, this has run into the earnings report almost every quarter it happens. i am not suggesting it hasn't had a nice move this year. it was up 8, 9%, but i also said it has underperformed the other mega cap names which have done better. i wonder what that does to the stocks this evening. >> growth is a lot lower.

as i talked about in terms of the majority of their business, i think this company really benefited big-time from covid and now you're kind of seeing the reverse effects, especially on max and ipads too. they have really tough comparisons coming up, so there are a lot of question marks and guidance will be key. we always talk about guidance. that is more important now than ever. >> i love that chart we put up. it shows the stock was pushing back towards 200. let's throw that back up there, guys, if we could, please. it tells a good story. if the earnings report was on the backend of 196, that may be problematic, but it did have that selloff by about 10 bucks or so. nonetheless, it adds interesting questions. let's move to amazon. i am coming to you here because you have been adding to this name.

you have sold out of meta, which we will get to you. you sold out of alphabet and you have picked this as your winner. why? >> yeah, and i will buy it hand over fist if it is down tomorrow. there are three ways to win. the cloud business is exciting. it's around 13% this quarter and i think they will give you a pathway to get to 17% by the end of this year. they signed a couple of contracts in october right after they reported last quarter, so you have a little more visibility and a re acceleration. that is one. two, retail sales. online retail sales grew in december, no question about it. retail will do okay. promotional activity is seasonal and that happens within this particular quarter. >> are you watching the profit margins? >> exactly right. they had 4% last quarter. i think they will get to 7%, so i think that is the exciting

part of the story. i am a margin percent. and crime should help. >> i was going to ask you about that too. where is the bar in terms of aws growth after what we got from microsoft and google? they showed pretty strong growth . >> i would still say 12, 13% and anything above that, people get really excited. if they talk about what they signed in october and what the momentum and cadence was throughout the quarter, that will be very, very important. scott, the historical average is 18 times. >> it is 41 times forward. >> it is 2.1% for sales. to me, this one makes the most sense. it is very hyped up in print. it is very liked. the southside has 100% on it. i'm not crazy about it, but the story is there. >> that is a lot of optimism. malcolm, do you share it?

>> i'm with stephanie on this one. if this sells off after the closing and the after hours, i will step in and buy additional shares. i don't care too much about the e-commerce side of this business. i know the year of efficiency included getting rid of warehouses that were overstaffed and letting go of a ton of staff they over hired, but i am more interested in the advertising side of this business. after what we heard from netflix, from alphabet related to online ad sales, amazon is actually going to outperform in that area. if it gets undervalued by people selling it off immediately after that earnings report, that is an awesome place to step in and buy those shares. >> joe, you are the innocent bystander here. you don't own amazon. tell us why. >> over the last week or so,

i've been very engaged in looking at what's going on with amazon. in fact, why we don't own amazon, we sold it in july of 2022. the reason we sold it or we saw significant deterioration on the return on equity, the debt to equity, the quality of the balance sheet -- i think you would agree with that. it was concurrent with the cash cow seen and that is aws. i think steph will be right on this and i think why she will be right on the name is because you are beginning to see the improvement on equity and debt to equity. the reason for that is because aws might have troughs. i think that is the indicator tonight. you could see 15 print on aws growth, 15%, i think you are in a great position and i think it moves significantly higher from there. >> malcolm, go ahead, please.

>> i would add to the point about aws, if all of the mega cap techs participating in the race, amazon has the least to lose and the most to gain. if they figure out a way to communicate how they will profit off the $4 billion investment and everything else they have done to make themselves the everything store of a.i., that will supersede anyone's expectations because we haven't really been talking about amazon in that way in the a.i. arms race in sometime. >> that is a perfect segue. i was going to ask about generative a.i., malcolm. how about that? >> the sky is the limit for the company and i don't think they get the credit, to be honest with you. i think they are on the back burner but there is a huge upside there. again, right now, the stock trade on aws and the marches and -- margin is on a.i.

, period. it is a longer-term story. let's turn our attention not to meta. i mentioned your history a couple of weeks ago. you told us you got out of the rest that you had. they got back up above $1 trillion. the stock is coming off its best year of all-time, following its worst year of all time. you had the ad market recovery in the rearview mirror. what do you think? >> it is great company and there is nothing wrong with it. the stock has 13 times to 20 times and it is traded 27 times forward, which is an egregious but you are getting around 24% of total revenue growth. about 27 times is the historical average. the numbers won't be good tonight in terms of double digits. reels is hitting it out of the park. instagram is off the charts. we've got all that. that is already known. the big

question to me is expenses. the number right now is 30 to $35 billion in expenses for the quarter and there are whispers they could get up to 40. the big question is for the full year, do they do 94, $95 billion expenses overall? that is the trigger point, the expense side of the equation. >> joe, will investors be more sympathetic in terms of another ramp and spend, as long as the spend is going to the place investors want the company to be? >> i don't think so and this is the one name i have concerns about tonight. >> you own it, by the way. >> it's at market equal weight, not cap -weighted. it's bleeding. it's bleeding. to spend to support the meta verse is so significant. now reels has been really strong,

we understand that. a.i. has contributed to the core business. is there enough there in this quarter? is that able to continue? that has been clouding and obscuring the challenges on this spend with the reality labs . i don't know if that can continue for multiple quarters. at a certain point, investors will grow frustrated with the spending. they will look past other areas and they will see that it is really a bleed. >> $15 billion a year we are spending on the metaverse. you either need expenses to come in line and the guidance to be where it is. people would be fine with that, but if they were to tweak metaverse and the spend there, i mean, the stock would be much higher. >> the stock is up 31% from november 1st. you talk about a really solid ramp into a print tonight. what would it take for you to buy it?

>> it would take a ton for me to actually buy this name, one, because i don't like the fact they are one revenue stream and it's tied to something like digital advertising. i prefer amazon has it as one leg of the stool. if all of a sudden you go into a similar situation as 2002 when they pull back on their ads, so does meta. you got it right yesterday in terms of testifying on the hill is concerned, but that company is one bad statement to congress away from suddenly selling off because who knows what litigation gets brought against it? there is too much risk versus the reward we have seen, but good on them for the year of efficiency that has brought more than 100% return in the last 12 months. >> how about this? i just got omething in front of me. let's go back to amazon as we get back to talk about that for a minute. they have announced something

called rufus, a new generative a.i. powered conversational shopping experience. malcolm, you were just talking about amazon and a.i. and wanting to see more. well, they just gave you more. do you want to comment on this when you said the company has everything to gain relative to a.i.? >> i started off the year recognizing investors were starting to sour on a.i., a.i. , a.i. , same for anyone telling us they could turn this into commercially viable products that we could see and touch and pay money for today. all of the companies promising returns in the future, the market started to sour on it. i saw this as microsoft being the one running away from the pack as far as being able to improve how they plan to generate a profit. amazon hadn't given us that yet but with such a massive e- commerce business, it was obvious to me that eventually they would figure it out. it

sounds like based on what you gave us, they are walking in that direction, if they haven't already arrived. i'm interested to see what kind of impact that will have on sales and e-commerce and how that will increase the top line. >> high of day, do want to comment on this? >> that makes me nervous. you know me. i'm always nervous. this could be great news, but i don't know how material it will be to the top or bottom line. it would give us something else to talk about. this becomes a four part story in terms of how it can perform and not just a three part one. >> joe, is there divergence between some of these names? maybe we got a little bit between microsoft and alphabet. alphabet is having a bit of a rebound but we know what happened in the aftermath of earnings. are we still talking about this a.i. story and key stocks you want to put in there that will traded together for the most part?

>> i think that they are. listen, you're going to get disparity amongst the mega cap . that is obvious. look at a day like today. the market is being lifted up once again and you are washing away the negative feeling you had on tuesday. >> look at s&p. 4900 on the s&p as we speak. looks like a 50 plus point game for the s&p, coming off its worst day since late september. this happened immediately after, you know, the tatement from powell and in a news conference from the fed chair, himself. these stocks are all bouncing back. >> it will be interesting to see the reaction tomorrow. will beget good earnings? good follow-through? we did end get that on tuesday. i'm curious how we close out the week if we closeout with real strength.

we will look past the earnings and say, okay, the mega caps didn't hurt us as much as we thought it would on tuesday. >> malcolm, i will give you the last word. is the last leg of this rally riding on tonight? >> not necessarily. we got what we needed for microsoft yesterday. i have been feeling for a few months like it is microsoft against everyone else and they validated that with the numbers they gave us yesterday. you have been asking all week on the network it is 33 times too much? the answer is a resounding no. they are almost 50 years old and they've been public for 40 years and worth $3 trillion, yet somehow figured out how to increase revenue by 17% year over year, so the sky is the limit. i think right now what we are seeing is they are stepping away from the pack and it is becoming microsoft versus everyone else. >> we will make that the last

word. great stuff, everybody. malcolm, joe, steph, we will see what happens tonight . don't be too nervous. now will send things over to christina for a look at things moving. courts have topping 18%. volumes may have dropped but the firm benefited from higher prices. demand for green and biofuels will increase later this year. you can see shares are actually 17% right now. elliott management telling cnbc it has the larger 13% position in at sea shares, making them the largest shareholder. the e-commerce announcing today they will have a board seat. shares are 9% but are still down 11% on the year so far. and we just turned to february. >> thank you. we will be back to you before the end of the show.

we are just getting started. coming up, what is next for the fed? new york life investment's lauren goodwin is back for her rate hike playbook and where she sees serious opportunities right now. we are live at the new york tcnglongchange and you are wahi csi bell on cnbc. heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. i am here because so they saw how cancerain. adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here....

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lower probability, but i don't think a lot has changed here. the economic data is pointing to being a little too hot for the fed to move assertively. we believe the next move down in rates and therefore needing adjuration is moving away. >> one from today said i'm staying with march. most people have bumped it back to may. some still have june for the first cut. does march even matter, or is it the fact that cuts are coming ? ultimately that matters more than may or june? does it matter? >> conversations matter on the margin but for a balance investor portfolio, it is all about the top rates having come in and we are seeing cash move off the sidelines as investors recognize, hey, it might actually only be six more weeks we have to lock in yield.

>> let's talk about that. yesterday right after mr. powell finished his news conference, i asked, where is the best place to be? he thinks a lot of risk assets, you know, not only equities but along the credit stratosphere are extended. here is what he said he likes about bonds. >> the real interest rates on treasuries appear attractive to me particularly if the fed is staying higher for longer and may by that process engineer a lower inflation rate than 2% by the end of this year, which would make treasury bonds very attractive. >> agree? >> i agree to a point. i still see price opportunity and significant yield opportunity and credit. especially if we expect the next fed moved to be a cut, it is important to move cash off the sidelines. as economic growth slows, spreads will widen

and that creates price risk. you are still harvesting major yield even on the sharp end of the curve. one of the things we have been speaking with investors about is yes, move into bonds and consider taking your equity risk in bonds, especially high-yield where you have equity -like returns and price risk. >> that looks expensive and extended. you don't agree? >> it is expensive from a price perspective but relative to the equity market, you're getting between 8 and 10% on the high- yield index on your total return, which is pretty meaningful. >> sure, but you are taking on a much higher risk at these levels. >> i don't necessarily agree. as growth slows, and we have spoken about this a bit, even as economic growth slows -- >> allegedly. atlanta gdp was down 4.2. >> if we see growth slow,

spreads will widen. we will see much less widening and a much lower default rate in the cycle then we would see in a normal recession scenario, so i don't think the price risk is in high-yield or in the credit space at large what it could be in the equity space. >> can bonds and stocks do well this year together? and if not, why? why do you seem hesitant to say yes? >> both can do well if the fed is able to do what it hopes it can do, which is to cut rates steadily and with a little bit of foresight. that is a scenario that have come more into place over the last couple of months with economic growth looking really good and inflation coming lower. our concern is that is sort of a goldilocks scenario that is en route to a more challenging

scenario. >> is in at the base case though? at what point do you look at the whole prism and say well, the base case has changed? now jeffrey is calling for a recession in 2024. you have been looking for a recession, even if it is just mild. are you still looking for one? >> we are still looking for one. we will look back at january and say this was the peak of the goldilocks scenario because the market has to -- or the economy has to adapt in one way or another. we are seeing firm economic growth, in which case the fed will stay higher for longer and that is a challenging environment for equities, or economic growth will slow, which is a different environment from what we are seeing right now. >> even the chair yesterday sort of dismissed the idea that just because growth remains robust, that inflation is somehow either going to rear its ugly head again or remain at these levels.

he seemed to scoff at the notion that has to be a given, whereas maybe they thought that, but maybe that has changed. maybe that has changed. aren't we learning that it has changed? economy is strong, inflation is down. pick your read. >> what we have learned is that was absolutely the case in q4, right? we have seen in the recent term a perfectly soft -looking landing. i took a different read from the chair yesterday. i heard they are still so focused on risks to inflation that the read they gave in december, the lucid financial conditions that caused the rally we have been seeing. it was a little premature. they are highly concerned with the way that number develops and it could soft and further to margin. we could see a rate cut but that seems to have moved away from their central scenario.

>> you want to give me one last thing on what you think about tonight with the critical earnings of amazon, apple, and meta? >> look, we are in an environment that still two, three years later is uncertain. in an equity market, especially one that is expensive, lots of diversification questions in a group of seven equities that have driven the market. quality earnings have very much been the play there. to this structural investment including mega cap tech as well as digital infrastructure and the support of that platform still make sense. >> that is the last were there. thank you, lauren goodwin, for joining us. amazon, meta among the top picks for this year. we will reveal the reports and the mt os important things you need to look for. he will tell you, next. need tr demand...

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we are back with amazon and meta seeing gains today. head of internet research covering both of those names joining us now. welcome! it is good to see you again. >> good to see you too, scott. >> i need to know the most important thing to watch is, what?

>> 12% year over year. are we near 12% or higher? if we are, that is the most important thing. next, are the margins continuing to rise aggressively? will we have high operating margins? we think so, but that is the second most important thing. and the third thing, about it being materially higher, what does amazon have to say about the outlook? and the fourth thing, will we stay above 20% ad revenue for amazon? those will be the key things people should focus on with amazon tonight. >> how come you didn't say anything about a.i.? i just read the news that broke a little while ago about this rufus generative a.i. shopping related thing. how important is that? what is your read on it? i know you're probably just learning

about it as well, but give us some knowledge about it. >> i am learning from you. that rufus thing just came out today. a.i. has been throughout amazon for a decade or something. generative a.i. is something different and that should help with the workload at aws. that should be a driver of innovation. it is not clear yet how far they will move the needle. i am not sure we will see evidence of that, but sometime this year, this should be another driver, this aws growth. that is how i think a.i. will show up. >> gosh, i am trying to think of how investors will view x on things they need to spend money on versus cost-cutting on the things they simply don't and

how much scrutiny there will be around all of that. >> there is a number out there and it is right in line with microsoft's outlook. both are expected to spend roughly $56 billion on cap ex this year. the question is on whether there is commentary or results. whether the commentary will happen, people can take their numbers up like what happened to google, but i don't think so because the retail business, i think that will be relatively fine after the growth of 2020 and 2021. the infrastructure part of capex will grow by 20%, something like that. if we get the sense it's moving in the right way, that's fine. people expect them to progress in a.i , but will it go faster than

25%? >> turning our attention to meta, what is the most important thing there? >> 40 billion. the markets are a little nervous about that, given the google results. i think they will get close to the high end of that, but we did have headwinds in the quarter around brand advertising . let's not forget that. and the second is the capex outlook. is meta going to have to do this as well? meta has the best practice out there. they will tell you five quarters in advance what their total expense guide is. i don't think meta will be camping up or increasing its capex outlook . they're calling for 35 million in capex and if they stick with that, the market will have a sigh of relief. they are not as hyper scale as microsoft, aws, and google.

they are not running cloud businesses, but they need to spend aggressively. i think things are fine. >> with a stock coming ff its best year ever and a stock that has a 30 plus percent gain since november, what does that do to the bar? are you concerned given that move that the bar has gotten too high? you see how stocks have been priced to perfection in some respects and punished if they report really good results. it is just not high enough. >> the bar is definitely higher, scott. you are right about that. stephanie mentioned earlier that they went from 13 times earnings to 22 or 23 times earnings. my pitch is it underrated or way oversold on stocks. when you have earnings growth,

that is not the case. the stock goes up on a compounding of earnings and i think you will get that 25 to 30% because of margin expansion. this company is continuing its efficiency. i think that is a good formula for investing and going higher. >> your points are well taken. it is so rare you have a stock have its worst year ever followed by its best, but that is the world we are living in. market, thank you so much. mark mahaney joining us. up next, let's get back to kristina partsinevelos for us. kristina? >> the maker of invisible lin , those stock movers, next.

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we are 14 from the closing bell. let's get back to kristina partsinevelos . kristina? >> thank you, scott. peloton is months away from turning a profit. they posted mixed results from the holiday season losing more money than anticipated and forecasting weaker sales in the quarter. the cfo discussing shares are down 24% right now on the year.

check out etsy chairs again. elliott management and etsy told cnbc that the investor was increasing its stake in etsy to 13%. the maker of invisalign for your teeth impressing the streets with its earnings report. invisalign plan to lower their capex in 2024 and market expansion should raise full year 2024 estimates. that is why shares are almost 3% higher right now. scott? >> kristina, thank you so much. we will tell you what apple's earnings could signal for the tech sector next on closing bell.

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let's get a check of amer sports making its debut on the new york stock exchange. it was below the initial expected range here. not much of a pop either. $13 a share. it is up to and a half percent, down from the previous range of 16 to 18, so we will keep our eye there in the days ahead. market zone, next.

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the market zone is sponsored by eátrade from morgan stanley. we are now in the closing bell market zone. cnbc's marks and holy standing by to break down the day. plus, have you heard, kay rooney monitoring amazon. mike, let's start with you. we had our own version of march madness yesterday and we have recovered quite substantially. why? >> clearer heads prevailing on the fact there wasn't that much of a decisive shift in the cycle. the long-term bonds did their own easing and we had this

compression of 10 year yields. essentially what i was saying all along, marches and make or break for the market but you have to absorb the disappointing selling responds. what we have done tactically as we went up to 4900 thereabouts. in other words, it is not perfectly decisive to say, hey, we are fine but microsoft should have been 1% where it was before it reported. alphabet hasn't bounced much, but it is up for the year still. in terms of the rally, it seems more balanced. it's not juicy, let's buy it right here at 4900 but it feels the market is able to get its footing because good economic news is good news for the market and that has been the case for months, ever since the fed pivoted. >> amazon among them. nice move for the stocks and getting a bigger balance --

bounce. >> yes, scott. investors are watching revenue growth in particular to see if that has bottomed. it has been lingering around 12% the past few quarters. 2022, it was 30% range and the today the number two beat is 13%. that will determine the outcome before the stock around earnings. also watch spending. google and microsoft called out capital expenditure increases. any commentary on where amazon stands on the a.i. race, they have just announced, scott, the new generative a.i. shopping assistant, rufus. investors are expecting margin improvement in the north american retail business and a possible upside for advertising as amazon launches ads on prime video. ev maker down about 30%. scott?

>> thank you, kate. and by meta, what do we expect here? >> expect revenues to grow 22%, a hair down from the 23% revenue growth we saw in q3. earnings per share are expected to grow by 182%. meta's shares have soared over the past 12 months but analysts are bullish. 81% have a bye and 16% have a hold pointing to artificial intelligence boosting usage and ads spent. after google reported its total ad cells -- sales cell, they noted capital expenditures were notably higher compared to 2023. revenue and meta's cost will be under a microscope. we will see if zuckerberg has

any new proclamations on cost controls and if he follows up on his public apology before congress yesterday. scott? >> julia boorstin , thank you. mike, do you want to put into your own words what you think of that steak? >> apple actually, there is a more reservoir of doubt. the streets are more lukewarm on it. it's got automatic growth story behind it. for meta and amazon, they need to clear a relatively high hurdle. it doesn't seem that difficult. for both of them, the a.i. trend seems more of a tailwind while for alphabet, it feels like they are playing defense. they have to spend a lot and it is seen as a negative. it doesn't seem like there is a lot of edge here. apple was high going into the number.

>> we learned our lesson, investors have, in doubting apple over the years. there is the bowel. it is about to get real. let's send it over to morgan and jon. >> [ bell ringing ] stocks bouncing back after yesterday's post fed cell off. winners stay late for $5.5 trillion. welcome to closing bell: overtime. i am jon fortt alongside morgan brennan . >> we are just away from the earnings. we will breakdown the results from amazon, apple, and meta as soon as they are released. we are counting down to all of the earnings calls. >> and let's bring i