latest employment today. it is friday, february 2nd we are in a fog out here it is groundhog's day. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen we are live at the at&t pro-am at pebble pebeach. we have andrew ross sorkin in new york we have jobs friday and ahead of the number, you will see it looks like the futures yesterday, you did see the dow close up and the dow and s&p on track to be up for the week at

this point dow futures are flat right now s&p indicated up 26. nasdaq is down for the week, but indicated up 167 points this morning thanks to a lot of the tech stock earnings. we will talk more about that in a minute look at what is happening with the treasury yields ten-year yield and five-year level. ten-year level at 3.884. andrew thanks, becky. i hope you guys are doing well i think it is 3:00 a.m. where you are. >> yeah. >> we have been talking about that. >> the alarm clock was 1:30. >> it is a beautiful place out here >> the commute is nice >> yeah. >> 100 feet. >> i don't have to go to a different state. amazon, meta and apple reporting after the bell

yesterday. all beating on top and wobottom line apple logging a growth quarter it did miss on iphone sales and posted declining sales for china. i want to bring in doug clinton from deepwater asset management to walk through the numbers. what were you impressed by and unimpressed by and what will you do about it? >> andrew, you have to give the best grade to meta when you think about the earnings everything was flawless. earnings were great. buyback and addition to that was great. the guidance was really strong accelerating revenue growth off the great number in q4 they get the highest marks i actually think is the most interesting take has nothing to do with any of the three companies that reported last night. what mark zuckerberg talked about on the earnings call for meta is the year of efficiency the hunger that has brought to

meta and pace of innovation was inspiring. i think that was a tell for google i think google needs its year of efficiency when you compare the energy on the call, which i think is a reflection of the pace of innovation at the company, to meta and to microsoft, it doesn't feel like it is on the same level i would love to see as a google shareholder and meta shar shareholder, i would love to see google take that step and find that hunger to go after the huge a.i. opportunity in front of them it doesn't feel they are as aggressive as meta by comparison. >> if you could own one stock, which one? >> we own both i prefer meta here >> let's talk apple. >> i grade them a "b minus" or "c plus. the guide was disappointing even if you back out of the covid

comp issue year over year going into march, you are still talking about flat numbers that is a business that is relatively mature now. the big news for apple is back to a.i that is what the magnificent seven is all about i think them talking about generative a.i. and tim cook saying for the first time we do have a generative a.i. product coming to market later this year that probably means wwdc in june that was the biggest news that came out of the call it will have something to do with the evolution to siri i think investors might get more excited about apple being an a.i. company leading up to the announcement >> are you a believer that apple can have a step change with siri that rocks the business in the best way possible? >> i don't know if i would say rocks is how i describe what i think will happen.

i think it is more of an evoluhe evol evolutionary process i would expect the generative version of siri to be an evolution. over time, it can evolve into something that is a significantly different product than what we are used to using siri for today that is a few years away that will not rock us out of the gate in june. >> how concerned are you with the china sales for apple? >> we have seen this before when warren buffett was buying the stock in 2016. we had the same story. it was china and the story is over there is no more growth in china. that was the biggest knock on the stock at that time we're seeing that again here the reality is they still make the best smartphone in the world. even with spatial computing and ar and vr, we will still use

smartphones for the next decade. they will be powered by a.i. and that continued evolution with generative a.i. will continue to be a tailwind for sales. they will be fine in china it could take a couple quarters to work it out >> you probably can't see it on the screen, but we have showing the vision pro i had the opportunity to play with it for the second time yesterday. it is launching this morning we are doing a launch at the apple store on fifth avenue. what is your expectation >> andrew, my partner, gene, has played with a few times. we ordered one that we expect to get today. i would say we're sort of balanced in our expectations we think the device is incredible and will be incredible i think apple needs to figure out the killer use case. getting the device out into the wild and into the hands of

developers is the first step to finding the killer use case and seeing if spatial computing going to be a new leg of growth for apple and the future of the mac business i think that is possible it will be several years before the numbers are meaningful to apple. they probably sell a few thousand units this year from the revenue perspective, it doesn't move the needle more than a few percent this year or next >> doug, thank you for getting up early this morning on all of this tech news and earnings reports and helping us make sense of it. thank you. >> thank you when we come back, more on "squawk box. semafor's liz hoffman will join us and later, john stankey will join joe and becky at pebble

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welcome back to "squawk box. the new york bank is closing down from yesterday. we will talk to liz hoffman from semafor about this

liz, how should we worry about this are we back in the same soup we were in a year ago when we were thinking about svb and everybody else >> from a balance sheet perspective, yes the good news is we have seen this before. investors have a better idea of what to expect as you said, there is a bill lit littlecontagion, but not from the spring when the sector was down 30% investors are being more level headed >> explain to the audience, if you could, what is happening here at new york community bank as it relates to what was happening last year? this may be a bigger issue because it could represent other issues for other banks. >> exactly last year, banks got in trouble being stupid outside of their backyard which is they got a ton

of deposits when we had a ton of cash sitting around. some did not know what to do with it. silicon valley bank put it in liquid treasury bonds and mortgage bonds that we don't really need banks to be holding. if we want treasury bonds, we can do it ourselves. no real asset for banks to load up on it they got a bad call on rates oversomething the fed had done something it had never done before raising zero to five in 15 months this is what we need banks to do which is financing ill-liquid re the commercial property market has been licking for a while i'm surprised we have not seen a more of a reckoning. your average office tower is half full on a good day. it is friday it is 25% full that is not a thriving market. leases roll off slowly

tenants gain bargaining power over time. particularly regional banks which is financing real estate it's a credit bomb which makes me nervous >> there was an expectation last year of a massive wave of transactions mergers with the smaller community banks. we have not seen that so far why do you think that is >> it is mostly a regulatory overhang and administration is not friendly to mergers, particularly to bank mergers there is a bit of psychology we like having a lot of banks. 5 thund 5,000 banks in this country. >> we like our local banks >> we like our local banks it is like congress. everyone hates banks, but like their local bank we don't like to see those disappear. i think it is misguided because we saw last spring the government will be dealing with

the problem. m&a is the solution. it is easier to do it in a fog of over the weekend with no other choice you really need to see consolidation here separate from the real estate problem, what has happened is their margins have collapsed mid-sized banks are paying up for deposits which are more expensive. we should be paid for our money sitting in the bank. you know, the rates on loans are going up, but not as quickly and as you were saying there's an economic pullback from corporates the demand for new loans and business formation is down and slowing. they have to pay for the deposits they cannot deploy them in profitable loans the spread on the business goes away the solution to an industry where margins are shrinking is consolidation. we have not seen that here this is the illogical market at the moment >> liz, you covered a lot of

ground on that i've been trying to figure out how much of it is regulatory oversight which the banks are blaming because they now have more than $100 billion in assets and have to pay up for all these things you talked about paying more for the deposits how much of that is commercial real estate loans we have to look at for these problems i keep asking people if this is akin to the ss&l crisis they watching for others to get in trouble in the mid-tier banks. >> new york community bank declined to put a number on it going forward. banks should know what they are holding and they should signal to the market this is the size of the hit here's what happens if defaults go to this level and here's what happens if rates this time next year are 3.5% or whatever. a little clarity would be helpful on that. to your point, it looks more

like the s&l crisis over the real estate crisis look, this is more of a we will see and if contagion starts to spread, it could panic like last spring this feels like a slower moving earnings crisis that is dependent on the spread game what they pay for deposits over what they get for loans. some of that is rate dependent and some tied to the broader economic growth picture. the other thing is we have seen silicon valley bank and first republic had good clients and talent talented bankers and they were attractive to other bank buyers. i think the further down you go to the regional and sub regional

ladder, you are talking about asset sales. there are not a ton of people who will want the smaller banks or move over a weekend on them you will end up with a lot of the portfolios being sold there is a floor here for people not in real estate who regretted it private equity firms never made a jump >> liz, thank you. joe? thanks, andrew coming up, a big lineup from pebble beach it stopped raining for now we will talk to rex hoggard and jeff yang and john stankey "squawk box" is coming right back you know doug, ever since switching to workday you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol?

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welcome back chevron numbers just came in revenue coming in at $47.18 billion. that misses the street's expect. the company returning cash to share shareholders raising the dividend to $1.63. you see that stock is up by $1.50. chevron's chairman mike wirth will be on "squawk on the street" at 9:40 a.m. eastern time >> he is out here a lot. not this time. >> they moved the tournament his board interview this week. >> the best golfers are out here this year. >> and you >> and me.

the best golf arsesers and me we are live from the at&t pebble beach. it looks different from the past we have rex hoggard from the golf channel it is february have you seen a year where you have so much to chew on and write write about? it is beyond imagination >> i feel professional golf is that way the last two years. amazing times in golf with everything changing. >> and this year, here, we may have a crosby-type sunday. 48 of the top 50 now it is a signature event. that is different from the huge field where you had 30 of the quality players. it is a big improvement. >> when you look at everything

the tour has changed going into the season, you mentioned the signature events this stands out for the reasons you pointed out. they have never gotten this deep of a field for the pebble beach pro-am this speaks to what the tour is trying to do with the model el t they want the top players together more often. >> i don't understand why it wasn't like this all along at&t is the oldest sponsor pebble beach other than augusta augusta's great, but you don't have a tournament played there pebble beach you play the u.s. open if you are lucky. >> it is an iconic part an of the game you went back and called it the crosby many p ddon't know what that is. it is most like the arnold palmer era and jack nicklaus

era. rory mcilroy did not play this event before it was a signature event. now it has the status. it grows to another level. it is always strange you didn't get a better field here. >> what will happen with liv the guys are coming back without a penalty? is this the last deal from a couple of days ago >> i imagine we do get everyone back under the same roof i think the pga tour comes to a deal with the public investment fund because i don't think there is another option. rory was no more outspoken against liv golf and saudi arabia getting involved in golf than ror i rory. he has come around. >> players coming back to the tour the tour needs everyone back >> you do. there is a perfect week. you have half of the world's

players in mexico playing in the liv event and the other half here >> saudis have their own reasons. this is a lot of money golf is not going anywhere with sponsorship. this is a major tv event and major -- more and more popular i would not short it >> sabsolutely not with the ssg deal, the wordy heard was stability. players need to see our way going forward. it is not just investment of $1.5 billion that's great i think most players are excited because who is behind ssg? you look at the names. cohen and blank and all of the names big in sports and understand how to move the game forward. >> i love monterey only certain amateurs should be

here and me rex, thank you good to have you on. i'm heading to a wet spyglass. have you tried that? >> i walked it yesterday it will be very wet. >> every hole is uphill. >> uphill and into the wind. how do they do that? >> lightning fast greens brutal thank you. when we come back, we have much more from pebble beach today and including the interview with the c oeof american express "squawk box" will be right back.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live at the nasdaq market site in times square. the dow would open up 16 points higher nasdaq up 175 points the s&p up 25 points a huge raft of tech numbers overnight and the jobs numbers later today. as the battle over tax relief unfolds on capitol hill, the next guest offers release in his state. we have ned lemont here. good morning, governor >> good morning, andrew. >> what are you doing locally? >> we inherited a $2 billion deficit. the firsts t thing i wanted to was not raise taxes. that is what the five previous

governors have done. we have the budget balanced and we have the biggest middle class tax cut in history of $450 million. people are taking a 10% tax cut. poorest folks eliminated income tax for them >> what will it do for the budget will you create more revenue more people into the state do you have to cut services to pay for it how does it work >> we are making historic investments in education we had tens of thousands of families moving into the state of connecticut the last few years. some are paying income tax i said i don't want more taxes i don't mind more taxpayers. that is keeping our budget solid. >> what about s.a.l.t. we had the debate yesterday for the potential for s.a.l.t. to come back. that would be a game changer for connecticut. >> a game changer. we have property tax not deductible hit states like our state the hardest. that was the biggest tax increase in the trump years. they hit a lot of states like

our state hard. >> what is the chances you get that back? are you depending on it? >> i'm not depending on it it is not built into our budget. >> your budget >> andrew, i cannot predict anything from washington, d.c. we don't have a budget we don't know what it will look like 90 days from now. given the deficits, they will be careful about additional tax cuts >> when you think about what i happening in your state in terms of economically, what do you need to do this goes to what we were talking about office space here. people move to connecticut and do you have a group of people moving back? that is the other thing we have seen >> andrew, i thought everybody moving into the state was covid related. they like their backyard during covid. they didn't want to be in an elevator they stayed. they continue to come. the only thing slowing us down now is housing that is the initiative

i need more work force housing and downtown housing and places for young people to live if they come, the jobs are with them >> you may need housing for a different reason immigration. people bussed up there not in the same way that's happening here what do you think of the immigration problem in america do you think blue states thought this was not in my backyard, but now it is? >> it is in all our backyards. governor supremcott from vermon i wrote a letter on immigration. it is hitting us they have to secure the border i tell president biden, we'll send the connecticut guard down to help get it done. >> what does he tell you back? >> we are trying to get the bipartisan compromise. you know congress. things take a long time. they have to get it done. >> i'm curious when you see the governors. governor of texas and florida bussing migrants up to

the northeast and do you say this is terrible and they are used as chess pieces and you think it is wrong or this is working? i would argue, by the way -- you could have both ideas in your head at the same time. >> look, it is a political ploy and it got the governor of connecticut's attention. i can tell you governors are both sides of the aisle think this is important. they have to get this bipartisan compromise done. don't say we will put it off due to politics. it is hitting states like connecticut. >> you want to weigh in on the presidential election? where are you? what is the age cutoff for you >> i don't know what the age cutoff is, but i think people like sanity at the end of the day. they say biden is not as energetic, but he is sane. i like him >> are you surprised about the

number of democrats are frustrated with president biden now? >> no. we get cranky until it is show time then we all come together. you will find president biden has a heck of a record look, the most important thing from my state is infrastructure. we are old we have the creaky roads i need to commute faster thanks to the infrastructure bill >> what do you ascribe the polls to today or do you not believe them >> there is general malaise. i think as people shake their heads, they see where we were going and look at five years ago. look at the creation and jobs. we'll be all right. >> governor lamont, thank you >> thank you let's kick it back to the west coast with becky. >> andrew, thank you

we have results coming in. exxonmobil reporting the fourth quarter numbers. adjusted earnings per share of $2.48. that beats the street estimate of $2.21 it comes in on revenue of $84.34 billion which is below $85.32 billion target exxon returned $32 billion in shareholder distributions for the year it is raising the dividend by 4.4% the 41st straight year of dividend increases exxon set production records in guyana and permian darren woods will join us in the interview at 7:30 a.m. eastern time you see the stock picking up chevron and exxonmobil coming in with numbersexpectations we will talk to darren woods about the earnings and the shareholder proposal that was

brought to try to address the climb issue and bring to the shareholder vote exxon took the unusual step of suing them for the situation it turns out that the activist shareholders have pulled that proposal they will be talking a lot more about that with us today pulling that proposal because some of the activist investors are now wondering what will happen if they will be able to do this. they see the s.e.c. as a safe place. we will have the chairman of exxonmobil coming up in under an hour's time. up next -- >> the climate issue if someone told you 20 or 25 years ago that you will have a big shareholder uprising because people don't like the weather and blaming it

dow's american express has been led by steve squerry at the pebble beach pro-am. i caught up with the ceo and talked about the challenging time at the start of the pandemic, but while some companies were zigging, he took a different tack on all this tried to take an opportunity and turn it into something he did this after speaking with the big shareholder. amex is a big holding for warren buffett. >> sometimes people say don't waste a good crisis. i think during the pandemic, you were faced with a lot of challenges for us, the first thing that was important for us was to take care of colleagues we made sure people were home and safe we had probably 6,000 or 7,000 colleagues with no internet

access we kept them on our books. when the pandemic was over, they came back and very loyal to the company. i think we should be loyal to them i think probably most importantly for us is we really took a step back and said our brand stands for something and our customers mean a lot i remember during the middle of the pandemic in april, things were bleak spending was down. credit numbers didn't look great. you saw a bit of delinquencies it looked like we would lose $4 a share. i called warren buffett up and said, warren, we will probably lose $4 a share. you should be aware of that. i said our capital position is good you know, reality is i would like to invest more in our customers. we did we invested in our customers a lot of benefits were travel related. we put in streaming benefits and

shipping benefits and cellular benefits and things like that. dining benefits with takeout that worked. what we saw was our card members really responded to that our retention numbers went up. we came out of the pandemic and we had a card base that was with us and our customers were really engaged with us. you know, we started to grow you know, coming out of pandemic, we grew 17% and 25% and this year at 15% a lesson from that is carry your colleagues and they will take care of customers. if you can work with customers and engage with customers, they will stay loyal. that's what happened >> you are in a unique position because berkshire has a 21% stake in american express. you had to get your biggest shareholder on board did he support your plans to inn v invest more? >> nobody is a better long-term

investor than warren buffett his philosophy is take care of the brand and take care of customers. the reality is as we looked on that dark day in april when we were going to lose $4 a share, i could have cut people and expenses and maybe we lose 250 that is not long-term thinking that is short-term thinking. by investing in customers and colleagues, it made a difference it put us on a growth trajectory >> the other issue you had is zigging when everybody else was zagging. you added benefits and more cheaply because everybody else was disappearing. >> what happens with us is partnerships are critical to us. we talk about our model our model is different jpmorgan chase is a great company. visa is a great company,

mastercard, et cetera. we have the acquiring side of the business we had relationships with the at&ts and verizon and u.p.s. and fedex. we were able to work with people who were willing and wanted to provide value to our customers we provided value as well. that really worked out very well for us >> did it take a pandemic or crisis of some sort to have people think differently about wrapping those rewards in? >> it is interesting a lot of our benefits were travel-related benefits. that worked well for us. it opened our eyes to that package of benefits doesn't need to be travel related the package of benefits which drives our membership model, those benefits can be more inclusive. we have amex offers and we embedded dell benefit or adobe

benefit or saks benefit in the card we started to think broader. that helped us out >> now when the company moved to change benefits as it did with delta airlines last year, delta change ticked people off you can only use the lounge so many times with so many benefits they changed things up new changes just yesterday we'll show you more of that interview with steve coming up in a little bit in the next hour that was a key thing, too, when you pull back to make things more exclusive, you get pullback >> ceos. he is here i guess people know he is playing. okay i would be remiss if i didn't mention that i'm not calling him a sand bagger and ceos don't want to be great golfers. i have to say it three natural birdies yesterday. almost got a hole in one on 7.

about eight inches in a driving wind into our face on 18 -- xander hit a couple muchof balls in the ocean he was 5 for 4 although his pro got an 8 lights out yesterday >> fantastic >> really amazing. i'll probably get in trouble for that you do great >> we will talk to him and hear more of those things andrew, you are a huge proponent of paying up, but getting benefits and have done the math of how it worked out for you >> i'm happy to talk about the platinum card or other things and use all of the benefits to get your money back. i'm happy to run you through it. >> andrew, i get wifi. i get wifi on the plane.

i'll have to take 1,000 flights to work off my one pass. that's all it is good for any more good for anything, andrew? >> i'll talk to you during the commercial break i promise you value back much more than that. >> i should have come to you first. when we come back, something you may want to have on the plane home, guys apple's vision pro headset officially on sale today this is a live shot of the apple store in times inqsquare we will have the latest coming up

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welcome back to "squawk box. apple's new vision pro coming out this morning, and, well, i'm wearing one right now. joanna stern from "the wall street journal" is here this morning. you've been playing this thing a

lot. i played with a little bit not nearly as much as you. it is a little weird to do the interview like this, but -- >> you can see me fine. >> the crazy part is i can see you through this, but not through glass, it is actually a camera that is looking at you that is then reflecting on to screens inside here. >> exactly. >> it is kind of an amazing thing. >> a little pixelated but i look pretty real. >> it is extraordinary it is an extraordinary device. you're the tech columnist and expert how extraordinary or not is it >> well, i mean, the best thing is watching someone put this on for first time because it is a wow moment it does feel magical as you're saying right now, you're seeing me, but if you would start to operate in the operating system, get around there, you wouldn't need these, right? this is the med quest three, these are controllers. you don't need these big clunky controllers. you just use your hands. to get around, you look at what you want to tap on -- >> this is the most amazing part i wish you could see this, so,

all you have to do is look up. i'm looking up and i'm clicking on things and then i move my eyes and now i'm clicking on the next one because i moved my eyes to the -- it is unbelievable. >> exactly >> does it make you at all dizzy? >> becky wants in on it. >> only because -- does it make you dizzy, andrew? >> not dizzy, no i was in this yesterday for an hour and not dizzy i would say the only thing -- my biggest downside if there is a downside is just the weight of it i think after an hour, sort of enough for an hour but i could put it back on again later >> i pushed myself my video review, i tried to wear this for 24 hours. no one should do that at home. i warn you but the reason i did that was to try to push the device and see the battery life and what you could do in here all day i think the maximum for most people is one to two hours and that's the length of a movie. but also i should say, if you're laying down, you're watching a movie, you mentioned the

airplane seat -- >> my god. wouldn't that be mind blowing on an airplane. >> exactly if you're laying down and i watched a full length movie on here, you can go longer. and the real restriction is that battery. that battery you're wearing from your head, that will last two to three hours. >> do you prefer to watch a film in here than you would watch one on a big screen at home? >> it is a tough question. the big screen at home is more of a collaborative experience. i can watch with my family here is a solo experience. it is isolating. but there are many times where you want to watch by yourself or, on a plane, when you're sick in bed, when you're watching a series and you decided to jump ahead. >> the case is about $200, you might want some of the accessories and if you have glasses -- this is a pricey item >> there is some add ons >> you have the oculus, the quest over here. >> this is the quest three. >> the quest three >> yes >> how much? >> this starts at $500 >> so today, if you have an

option between buying that and buying this, i know the apple folks would say they're not in competition with that, and i'm sure the meta people would say that they are not in competition with this at the moment. >> look, is it the same category absolutely but this is really like looking at those early days when this is the blackberry and that is the iphone and that, look, there is a much bigger price gap right now, but when you put this -- put this on first. look through it. this isn't powered on. but, look, feel it >> right, the weight i've used this before. i don't want to throw it i'm scared. >> throw it live on air. here we go you will feel the difference and there is -- it is just not comparable yes, you can do more things actually right now in that quest. you can play more games. you can do a lot more things but this is the platform that they're building on for the future >> so now i got to close out of something because you're covered. yeah, but i got these controllers -- >> i don't have any hands.

>> this is the thing you can set that up for hand tracking, you can. it is nothing as -- it is not like that. it is not as seamless as using -- >> the question is are you buying this for $3500 today? >> am i personally >> would you >> look, i've been reviewing it. i have to say, the big test for me now is if i'm going to miss using this yesterday i worked in it for about an hour, two hours and i preferred us crappy monitor i have on my desk i've been working on this a lot. you can place windows everywhere, get a bigger monitor, so, for me, look, i don't know if i made the decision i'm personally going to buy it yet, i'll say that. >> but that's a game changer >> for working, i think it is. i will say everyone in the journal offices kept coming by laughing at me, taking pictures, pointing and laughing. >> do you think people will be in offices wearing these >> i don't know if all the people will be people will be in offices wearing these, absolutely.

>> nick bilton wrote a piece in "vanity fair." he said the problem is when you took it off, because it is so vibrant in there, it feels so magical in there, it really -- i can't even describe it, that when you're in real -- the reality of life, you're, like, i want to go back in there. >> what he said resonated with me because i wore this for 24 hours straight and when i came out, i was, like, what is life, what is reality? this is the future we're looking at there is a lot of questions about it also as he mentioned, there is that addiction you want more, you want more >> so vibrant in there, the colors are just more bright. >> you mentioned that about watching movies. we watch this together what is the isolation going to be like as well? >> okay. thank you for coming in this morning. fascinating. we'll see how many people go out and get this thing it feelsike mein lsothg big is happening here joanna, thank you. "squawk box" returning after this only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number settings. it's so smart, it actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees

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a big morning for investors as we get ready for the january

jobs report. we'll have a preview of those numbers and find out what it means for the markets, the fed and for your portfolio plus, three big tech earnings in focus after reporting quarterly results. we have a breakdown of amazon, meta and apple all the results, that's coming up. and live from pebble beach, the ceo of exxonmobil joins us this hour. we'll also hear from the ceo of american express, and tech investor jeff yang second hour of "squawk box" live from the at&t pro am at pebble beach begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin, now out of the goggles of the vision pro. life looks still pretty good becky quick and joe kernen, life is looking really good for them.

they're on the west coast this morning live from the at&t pebble beach pro am. vivid and live, in living color, guys let's show you futures real quick right now. dow jones up 20 points. treasuries right now, the ten-year and the two-year, want to show you where things stand, the ten-year at 3.882. and the two-year at 4.233. it is jobs friday. now to steve liesman with what to expect. >> this january jobs report is really shaping up to be a tricky number with several leading forecasters looking for upside surprises or above the consensus, even while most over time think this job market is really cooling let me give you the consensus numbers that talk about where other folks are. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment

rate ticking up to 3.8%. 4.1 would be the year over year, i've seen some folks think it could come in at 4 but forecasts like goldman sachs, morgan stanley, jpmorgan, steven stanley, all the folks i follow, they're looking for numbers above 200,000. even as high as 250 and most of this is because of the seasonal adjustment problems. seasonal adjustments, look for a large january layoff we had muted december hiring, fewer layoffs in january, and that could lead to exaggerated strength in january. that's what folks are saying when they're looking for 250 or 285. two other factors at play. government hiring has been strong that's not going to last a whole lot of time, but could be strong again this month and you have unusually cold weather, you had storms in the midwest that could work the other way. all this uses a lot of uncertainty to this jobs report.

so here's a way to look through the noise. focus on the three-month average. it shows the job market broadly slowing, the three-month average of private sector job growth has come down. it was 271 back in january 2023. it is now 115,000. it really has more than halved here the fed is going to look through the noise if there is a lot of noise and expects wages and job growth to settle down over the next several months. it could pay more attention, though, if you really have unexpected weakness over the next several months. that could speed up the timetable for rate cuts. some of the things i look at leading indicators, adp is slower, ukg says when you look through the noise, it will be slower just brace yourself. a lot of back and forth on this jobs report at 8:30 this morning. >> i am braced we're all braced to see what happens and i know we'll be talking to you a lot more throughout the broadcast thank you for that joe? thank you, andrew. andrew, those glasses look

weird. i guess you don't really wear them out necessarily in public or anything, like, at a bar or something, right >> you do not wear them at a bar. >> they look like the fly. i said to becky, andrew looks like he tested his teleportation device and the fly was in the device and you know how the cells start taking over and jeff goldblum -- it is a weird looking thing, isn't it >> it is like wearing ski goggles. it looks like you're wearing ski goggles that look a little different than that, but sure. >> it is for you >> it is for you >> what you couldn't see is -- you can see my eyes looking at you, through the thing, which is amazing, it is not really through it, it is projecting, so it has cameras inside that are looking at your eyes and the outside is a screen that is projecting your eyes >> i don't think you can describe it. do you understand? >> i read a lot of stuff on it

the one thing that was written in "the verge," is it worth messing your hair up every time you putten enit on and off. that was a guy writing it. you got a good cut >> elon musk wrote, i posted something about it, elon musk wrote nobody looks good wearing a vr headset, so -- >> really? >> that was his post to me and i wrote him back that a lot of people have been telling me how great i look and saying they kept saying, jonathan, you look great. that was my response >> for a closer look at the markets and the state of the economy, and he's playing out here, ron shashevsky the experience here is kind of new. >> unbelievable. >> it is the most -- you know, you're supposed to look at the waves and enjoy everything and

that's what my wife said, you really should be looking at the view and i don't think i looked at the view once because you're grinding so hard with that wind. >> i look at the waves as my ball was sailing into the ocean a couple of times. >> i thought about going down there. >> you realize how good the guys are when you're playing in conditions like this >> i actually feel their pain too. can you imagine trying to earn a living sinking those putts and when the wind -- it is crosswind and you got 190-yard shot you can't let go of to the right because you're going to be down in the ocean it is unbelievable. >> it is unbelievable. it is. it is fun. >> it is great. >> we're here playing, life is good >> nobody is complaining just, you know, just suck. but, you know, let's -- i saw the atlanta fed -- i'm -- it is mind blowing to me how wrong 99% of the economists always are about things did you see the atlanta fed

forecast 4% plus gdp. >> yeah. >> after that shocker for the last gdp report. and what happened? how did we miss it so badly. did stifel -- were you surprised? >> well, we think the economy is stronger and we have been saying for a while the market's view of sex rate cuts just isn't reality. and not so much from the economic numbers you don't raise 11 times into a big inflation and then suddenly pivot and cut six times. it doesn't make a lot of sense from a lot of perspectives and so i think the economy is going to prove stronger. i think you're going to see a jobs report this morning that is going to be stronger so, we don't see the fed cutting. >> what happened wednesday and what happened yesterday? how does that -- what do you attribute it to in terms of the averages >> i just think you're seeing -- >> wednesday was like -- we're not going to cut thursday was okay.

on the one hand, no cuts, the other hand, the economy is good and you don't know whether to buy or sell on that. >> if i'm speaking my own book, i want rates coming down that's going to have investment grade issuance, ipos, everything will -- >> that -- would inflation come back jay powell says it is not put to rest. >> isn't that the $64,000 question from the human lamelem. i look at it from what are the history books going to say to our fed chairman if he cuts rates too soon, and reignites inflation. that's how you get in the history books. >> that's what you think they're going to be more afraid to cut rates and have to raise them again or to have inflation come roaring back. >> i would certainly -- that would be what i would worry about, if, you know, you say,

maybe iyou're a little too accommodative during the stimulus and the fed printing money. you need inflation data coming down and getting to 2% if we see rates really be cutting substantially, as the market thinks i'm not quite sure what the market thinks. >> is there any way that this, you know, we're supposedly the envy of the world because of our economy. is there any way it is still residual from the fed and from the fiscal component and government hiring and keynesian infrastructure, all these things is any of this really organic from the bottom up capitalism succeeding or is it all -- did can it all come back to haunt us and not be real? >> if you look back, we put so much money in the economy. when you add it all up -- >> is bidenomics -- if bidenomics is working, why does he have the lowest rating of any president in history >> when you go to the grocery

store and hear bidenomics and get your food bill, that most people react to that the inflation has then -- that's a big tax. and even though inflation is coming down, it is still up 8% from call it 2021. so your food bill is up, and wages haven't kept up with that. they're starting to. so, look, i think through all of this, the market needs to just let the fed do its job and not be thinking that we're going to be at a 3% rate. >> might be that we're adding a new city the size of cincinnati every couple of months and that the rate of immigration is now above the rate of births in the united states. >> i would watch -- i would see what steve said, but i would watch average hourly earnings, which were up 4% >> i think they're going to be up 4% again. >> and i think that's going to be something you have to watch. >> that's good because people are still below where they were. >> the fed is not going to -- >> not going to cover.

>> they have real wage gains, though. >> i see it. i see the job market so, to say that that's not occurring would -- >> it is good. >> it is good. but it is not conducive to the fed cutting rates like six times. >> what we saw with new york community bancorp this week has people worried about what is going to happen with some of the mid level banks. how would you describe the situation? >> it is how markets work. when you take the short-term rate of 5.5% in their case, in a rent-controlled market, you're from new york, just think about it your interest costs are going up, your rents are controlled. >> that's an interesting point i hadn't thought of the rent control aspect. >> absolutely. and, in fact, it was in many ways idiosyncratic to them, that particular issue yet urban office buildings, primarily on the coast, are under stress for a lot of reasons. some of the covid policies and,

you know, you're not seeing people moving -- or moving out of some of these urban buildings for a variety of reasons but rates are up i think we're going to see more of this, but the banking sector is very well capitalized i don't see it being systemic. >> who is your guy who do you listen to is it barry banister >> absolutely. >> he's been -- so god forbid you try to call the market because you wouldn't do that would you? >> me? >> yeah, you can, like, hang it on barry, can't you abs abs >> absolutely. >> last year he was great. >> last couple of years. >> where is he this year >> barry, so the market, we look at versus consensus. the market thinks up 11% we think it will be half that, 6% not bad. >> stay where they are >> i think it is going to be flat here because -- >> i don't want -- i don't care

what you -- >> barry sees the s&p 500 to be in a trading range here. we may be at our annual highs here based upon the fact that earnings are going to come in as high as people think that's barry's view. and i listen to barry. >> maybe barry can come out next year and caddie for you and give you some -- >> you think he would do that? we should -- if you tell him to, i think. >> that's right. >> thank you thanks for -- >> i said i have one goal here, that's to beat you >> what did i tell you your pro is 3 under. mine is dfl. do you know what dfl is? >> you remind me of michael jordan, scored 50 points and lost a game. if i'm higher than you on the leaderboard, that's all that matters. that's all i'm going to say. >> there is another day to go.

we both have spyglass. wet spyglass do not hit it in the rough or everything is a par 5. >> enjoy it. life's good. >> thank you, ron. we appreciate it we got some earnings from the energy sector this morning first up, chevron reporting earnings at $3.45 a share. revenue did come a little bit below, $47.2 billion versus the street's $51.6 billion expectations chevron returned a record $26.3 billion in cash to shareholders in 2023. and is raising its quarterly dividend by 7.9% to 1.63 the chairman and ceo mike wirth will be on "squawk on the street" today at 9:45 a.m. eastern time on a first on cnbc interview. and exxonmobil reporting adjusted earnings of $2.48 a share, beating the street's $2.21 consensus.

for the full year, exxon returned more than $32 billion in shareholder distributions it is now raising its dividend by 4.4%. exxon said that it set production records in guyana and permian, growing volumes by more than 18% see the stock now, up by about .6%. and exxonmobil's ceo tadarren woods will join us live in a few minutes. we'll talk to him about earnings, a shareholder proposal, what he's doing in the courts with that and much more "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ upbeat music ♪ upbeat music

welcome back to "squawk box. meta announcing its first ever dividend apple facing some challenges, a decline in china sales joining us now is dan flax

give miark zuckerberg some credit, those were some kind of blowout numbers. >> good morning. the numbers were strong and the company is demonstrating they're able to successfully pivot to newer areas. so, for example, short form video with reels business messaging they have done a good job reducing costs in the core business and continuing to buyback stock was positive so when we look out over the next year, we're looking for further signs that the company is able to embrace a.i., transform the user experience, and on the other side create additional items for advertisers. >> given the run the stock has been on, do you like it and where do you think it gos? >> we continue to own the name i think it can move quite a bit higher over the next year assuming that revenue growth stays strong for new money at current levels, we prefer alphabet or google where we think the search business remains durable you're seeing acceleration in youtube and we think the cloud

business with enterprise customers remains underappreciated the key with the companies is that they're able to reinvent themselves, continue to invest for the future, and play offense while at the same time manage expenses in this tough environment. >> you know, we had an analyst on in the last hour making the point there was a mojo on the call with zuckerberg on a relative to the basis of the mojo if you will from google or alphabet do you feel that way >> i think mark zuckerberg did a good job laying out his technology vision, in terms of what they're doing with artificial intelligence. in addition that, he struck, i think, a balanced tone with regard to investment coming off their year of efficiency so relative to google, which i think is executing well, facebook or meta gave a little bit more color on the outlook and perspective, which the market valued, in addition to the strong numbers, where there is certainly a bit of wait and see with alphabet. >> okay. let's talk apple we were just wearing the vision

pro here on the set. what did you make of the numbers and the challenges in china right now? >> numbers were decent overall i think the iphone franchise is healthy. the install base growth, andrew, is what is key to the story. even as replacement rates lengthen for the iphone business, you're continuing to see customers mix higher they want the very best product, the pro and the promax because of the camera amongst other features i think china is going to remain a neither challenge for the com company. they are the number one vendor for smartphones in china it is going to remain difficult in the near term services remains healthy we'll see better growth for the overall company later this year and into 2025. >> yes or no, want to own the stock? >> yes i want to own apple here >> okay. dan, thank you appreciate your perspective on all this back to joe at pebble beach. >> all right, andrew, thanks coming up, more from the ceo of american express on the big

changes for the delta sky miles american express credit card and then exxonmobil ceo darren woods joins us to discuss the energy markets and much more the futures now, take a quick look quite a week big gains in the nasdaq after some strong technology earnings. we're coming right back. it is dark out here, but the sun will come up tomorrow today. i hope ♪ bet your bottom dollar ♪ >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. according to seatgeek what is the average ticket cost for this year's super bowl? the answer when "squawk box" tus.rern oh, charades! - okay! - love it! umm... first word. - tonsillitis! - nostril! uh-uh... bill! uh-huh... - hip-hop! - limping! mmhmm! medical bills! uh-huh! - pancakes! - cash! who pays you cash when you have medical bills? grrr! no idea. [tapping] gap! the gap left by health insurance? who pays cash to help close that gap?

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welcome back, everybody. exxonmobil reporting ajusted earnings of $2.48 a share, beating the street's expectations of $2.21. came in on revenue of $84.3 billion. the stock is trading a little bit higher right now and joining us this morning to talk about this and much more is the exxonmobil chairman and ceo

darren woods darren, welcome. good to see you this morning >> good to see you too, becky. >> let's talk through the numbers. bottom line, better than the street had been expecting. what happened? >> well, i would tell you this is -- this quarter reflects what we have been doing all year long, which is excellence in execution, the organization is very focused on what we have to do to improve the business, and have been executing the jobs required to a very, very high standard but i tell you, i look at this in the context of the year, and more importantly in the context of all the work we have been doing over the last several years. we anchored ourselves, benchmarked ourselves and results in 2019, the year prior to the pandemic, to see the progress we have been making and if you see the results in 2023 and compare that to 2019, and compare that to our peers, we're growing earnings and cash flow faster than peers we are distributing more returns to our shareholders, total shareholder returns are higher

than our peers across that time frame. and if you take the market out of it, you take prices and margins out and look at it on apples to apples basis, we more than doubled our earnings power from 2019 to 2023. that's a function of all the changes we have made in the organization, the investments we have been making, the costs we have taken out i think this year marks another step in what has been a really good journey of improving this business and improving the company. >> you also had record production levels, if you look at a lot of different places, guyana and permian, a big part of the reason for those production levels seeing huge increases. there had been a lot of questions about what happens with guyana with venezuela making a lot of noise. can you give us any update on the situation there and what you anticipate the future holds? >> well, first point i would make is we're pretty far from the border and 100 miles off shore and operating. so i think people need to put in perspective what we're doing in that country and the work that we do is well outside of the

area that is being discussed but i would say there has been a lot of positive progress since this story first broke and got a lot of attention, the presidents of both countries have met, agreed not to advance their arguments through military or force. i think you have seen the western governments step in, and support guyana and there is a process going on through the court system to adjudicate on that dispute and our belief is that will continue to happen and we'll let that progress play out. in the meantime, we're very focused on, you know, doing what we have been contracted to do, which is to develop those resources efficiently and environmentally effectively and i think the organization is doing a really good job on that. >> darren, can we talk about some activist shareholders that have been trying to get some questions on the ballot to talk about climate change and what exxon should be doing. you guys took the pretty unusual step of taking it to court last

month. i know the activist investors just said forget about it. these investors said they'll take the ballot off. this is an issue that was very similar to one they brought last year, that was voted down, i think, by 90% of the shareholders but it does shine a spotlight on what has happened when it comes to getting questions brought to the shareholders, the s.e.c. made that process a lot easier and people are asking questions if the s.e.c. is now a fair arb arbiter. why did you take that issue to court and what happens next? >> i think you made the right point there, becky, these aren't true investors these are activists masquerading as investors and, frankly, using other people's shares to bring proposals to the company that aren't in the best interest of the company, aren't in the best interest of our legitimate investors, so we have been trying to highlight this as an issue and the s.e.c. has reinterpreted its rules and as you indicated here, made it much, much easier for these

activists to bring proposals to our proxy that frankly diminished the ability for us to effectively run our businesses and we have been working towards addressing that. last year we got very explicit and pointed in many of our responses to the proposals to point out the objectives of the proponents and this year we took the additional step, recognizing this was the third year in a row of this same proposal. last year the proposal was put in the proxy and got less than 11% support. this was the third attempt to bring it in. we just felt like we had to take a stand on this. and really make very explicit what is going on here and make sure that our shareholders understand the issue >> what is the problem with just allowing people to vote on it again and what does it do? why did you get frustrated to the point where you want the courts to sort this out?

>> many of the issues brought forward in these proposals are extremely complicated. the way they put these on the ballot don't begin to convey the complexity or, in fact, the impact on the economy. so, there is a huge cost one in responding to these proposals, but, secondly, there is not -- they do not represent the issues at hand or the implications for the company and, frankly, lead to potentially serious unintended consequences and so we're trying to focus and make sure we're a big believer in shareholders having a voice and making sure they have an opportunity to express concerns or ask questions and to make sure that we as management are stewarding this company and their shares and their interest in our company effectively so we're very supportive of that process, but it is like a lot of systems today, you got a system

that is good, that has been abused that abuse then basically diminishes the value for everybody. we're trying to get back to focusing this on legitimate investors with legitimate issues or concerns they want the broader shareholder base to speak on we're very supportive of that. and continue to work to get rid of the flack >> you feel like you have any friends in washington at this point? it goes across all agencies. you mentioned the s.e.c., take the epa, i mean. i see just about every agency under this administration really has the idea that it is somehow the weather that is happening in parts of the rest of the world, do you ascribe any of those problems to the actions that you've taken as a ceo at exxon i saw it happen in montana they got 6 million people and somehow the weather from the other side of the world has to do with emissions.

the courts decided that that was a legitimate -- do you ever just shake your head and say, we are living in times where sometimes the most patently absurd arguments are made and people are nodding in washington that this is actually a legitimate logical conclusion that they're drawing? i shake my head, darren. i don't know how you do it unfortunately you can't just -- you can't just shake your head and laugh and say you're just -- that's just patently absurd. you got to go, yeah, yeah, i feel -- it is unbelievable to me right now. but it is like that across so many different social issues i shake my head. >> well, good morning, joe i hink, you know, you probably know better than i do, there is a very narrow constituency that has an outside voice, which dominates a lot of the media, dominates the narrative out there. i tend to look past that if you get into substantive discussions about what is necessary to address the challenges of the u.s. and

frankly challenges that face the world, there is much better engagement, much, i'd say, rational conversations happening. and so i don't know if they're friends per se, but i would say we engage routinely with the white house and the administration on issues and i think, you know, we share a lot of common objectives and it is a question of how do you best achieve those objectives frankly i think the whole esg move has been, again, another frankly at the root of it a good thing. who doesn't care about the environment, about societies that we work in and good governance those are all things as a company we worked hard to manage for the last 140 years and we're very focused on continuing to do better in that space that turnout -- >> darren, i saw -- i see pristine beaches that have no roads leading to them in africa

that have plastic for the first 40 feet of the beaches there is plastic that washed up. there are massive environmental -- and no one would disagree with esg. but where are we focused and where is our attention focused when there is so many really important -- go ahead. >> yeah, i think what we can do as a company, who frankly has been in business for 140 years, we have the scale, we have the experience and the capabilities to weigh in and for the areas where we have these expertise and perspectives to offer solutions, and that's what we have been trying to do we have been trying to do that with respect to climate change we think there is a role, there is the electron solutions, the wind and solar piece of the equation, those are important. they're necessary, but not sufficient there is the molecule solutions, which is carbon capture and storage and low carbon hydrogen and biofuels and we have a role to play in that. we have the scale to contribute in this space and the technical expertise to contribute in that space. likewise with plastics

the challenges you mentioned is a waste management issue and once you collected that waste, how do you properly dispose of it or re-use it and we're advancing advanced recycling processes to take that waste, turn it into virgin material again there are solutions out there. i think we got to get away from the rhetoric and away from the politics of this and focus on the -- and roll our sleeves up and get to work. there are folks in both sides of the house and the administration focused on trying to solve the problems and we're working with them to do that. >> drill, baby, drill. >> darren, we will -- we appreciate your time today we'll have you back. i know that your only global outlook is showing that you think the world's energy demands will increase by 15% by 2050 next time you're here we'll talk about that thank you for joining us today we appreciate it >> good seeing you both. thank you. "squawk box" will be right back meets bold new thinking.

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there is always pushback when you take things away >> a lot of blowback. >> but as ed said, he came back, he changed some of it, and as ed said, he really wanted to make sure his premium travelers were being taken care of. >> part of that was they were taking away how many times you could go into a lounge. >> or how you qualified for status today, in fact, we just relaunched our delta portfolio of products. and, you know, we raised the fee on those products. but we added a tremendous amount of value to those products as well so, you know, whether it is delta reserve, delta platinum, delta gold, we continue to add more and more value to that product and i think it is going to be very well received by both american express and delta customers. >> part of the story is that american express always had wealthier clientele. it is your point that you want to keep the people who are willing to spend a lot and willing to offer more as a result >> if you look at our platinum

card, for example, 6.95, put if you use that platinum card and see the benefits in there, you can double, almost triple the value of that card plus find hotels and resorts which you get early check in and late check out and food credits and other spot credits and things like that so those products really resonate and what we found is over the last four or five years, if you look at our spending mix, we talked about millennials and gen zers, and when you go back to 2019, that represented 19% of our total spend. we released earnings, that represents 32% of our total spend. they are growing with us and the nice part about that is they really love these products that have all the value that have great service that have experiences. and when you think about a millennial, gen zer, you take them through their entire life cycle, right maybe they're married, maybe

they have a partner, they'll have kids, they'll buy a house, and we continue to grow with them and so, the lifetime value of a millennial or gen z to us is much better than acquiring a boomer or gen xer. >> let's talk about how people are feeling overall. there has been a lot of complaints about people worrying the economy is turning a corner, bad loans coming on and things you're dealing with a more well to do client. >> yeah. we deal with a very different, you know, our client base is a premium client base. that applies to jogen zers and millennials as well. what is the credit quality look like for gen z and millennials they season the same way our normal card members see it when we underwrite, we underwrite people to the same criteria, regardless of their age category or what have you. we underwrite assuming they'll be a bad credit cycle and how will they perform. and they performed very, very well for us.

millennials are not a new thing. we had them for a number of years now. gen zers a little bit newer. >> steve, thank you for your time. >> great being with you. >> great to see you. >> again, those younger customers that they're bringing in, he said it is important because you can hopefully hold on to them throughout their lives, but they are more tied to the experiences, things like being able to get early access to concerts, being able to get reservations early through the system, that's the type of thing, that experiential issue that is bringing them in and then you got people like andrew who figure out how to make use of the benefits that are there to make it worth the cost of the card >> yeah. they know they have to pay every month? >> yes that was his point that they're only looking at people who -- >> not good for most of those people i guess their parents, maybe. >> depending who is paying but, no, his point is they are coming to the card and picking it up. >> my kids' bills get paid pretty good. they're young people and they're doing really well.

>> up next, we are going to have another guest who sits down here with us. geoff yang on the state of silicon valley, the future of a.i. and where he's investing in technology right now and the countdown is on to the big data point of the morning. we have the january jobs report. we will have instant reaction and full market coverage starting at 8:30 a.m. eastern time when the numbers are released "squawk box" will be right back.

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think tech earnings, sffocu, race for potential ipos. joining us geoff yang partner, co-founder of redpoint ventures and what were we doing commiserating? it's pain. >> yeah. talk about, also called parting my belt. >> what have you done for me lately hit bad shots but you know

embarrassing one coming. no one cares what we decided? >> no one -- not trying to be out playing golf and nobody came to watch me. so i'm happy. >> you, i think, the last couple of years, we always think, you know, tech has run its course. thank god you're out here in this part of the world and in this business, because it's been the magnificent seven and here comes a.i. >> yeah. >> just and you're once again, you were in cloud early. what's most exciting to you right now? >> well, i mean, just to your point. it's kind of amazing i've been in this business for almost 40 years, and every time you think it's over something new comes along. and this a.i. boom is really something foundational it's a lot, reminds me a lot of mobile or cloud and it's, really is changing a lot of things and really driving kind of a new generation of technology, and i really think it has the

opportunity to change the way people interface with technology and the internet and in some respects puts the internet more kind of in the background power of all the applications versus this, in the foreground, you're directly interacting with the internet. >> it doesn't supplant any of these things just augments the other moves and trends we've seen. but is it 2x 3x, the internet >> hard to say the next wave is built from the last wave so it kind of gets bigger and bigger. even when you think back to how technology influences businesses of people's lives it was always in the background. now it's really in the foreground. >> and help from a productivity perspective? something you expect to see as early as this year >> absolutely. in terms of effectiveness, you saw meta's earnings and you look

at everything that kind of happened with apple taking, changing some of its data policies, and meta using a.i. to kind of power ad targets it's already being used that way. yeah i think it's going to be used to automate a lot of more mundane tasks and a lot of knowledge tasks. >> mm. >> you read meta's -- return to the advertising industry but really something that i've aye is h is -- a.i. is doing to get those numbers? >> both. combination of inventory and monetizing new inventories that's real. better targeting showing that t digital advertising on meta's platforms can be useful to advertisers and certainly a little advertising coming back but it's really coming back more on the digital side. >> do you care about the macro

economy? >> i certainly care. >> does it affect what you do on a daily basis in terms of investments? >> well, everything -- >> lower interest rates? >> sure. it's the context it's the world in which we live, and the companies in which we invest get higher value and, lower interest rates. >> sometimes it's better to buy when they're not getting higher value because of the -- you know -- >> sure. no absolutely but having said that, you know, we're fundamentally driven by, are there big changes that affect people's lives? or how corporations -- >> how do it do it people scouring the halls of stanford and cal tech and -- i mean, how do you do it out here? >> yeah. it's -- i think it's a combination. you always keep your eyes open for really, really smart people, but you have to have a thesis i think how you think the world will change.

that's how you get into areas early. and then you go and talk to the leading minds and the experts in the field and one leads you to another. and before you know it you kind of develop an expertise and reputation in a particular area. >> people come to you. >> people come to you. right. so for a.i., for example, you have to have some kind of model on where you think the opportunities are. you can start with foundational models or you can start with specialty models from there there's a need for developer tools and a need for training tools and then there's the need for applications and agents that implement all that you have to have some kind of point of view as to where the opportunities are and where they're not, and i like to think about it a little bit like, like a checkcheckerboard how it playt and place your bets. >> last six months how much have you done close to doing something big in terms of, you know, potential

investments? >> our hope is that everything we invest in is, it can be big, and, in fact, when you look at the venture capital business, that's one of the big changes that the biggest companies and the things that do represent the next generation of change in platforms are highly valued. you can argue they're excessly valued but definitely valued. >> anything that hasn't been a.i. in the last six months? done anything? >> well -- yeah. >> somewhat -- >> when there's one dominant theme, it kind of -- that's the landscape changing, that tends to be the theme that everybody kind of goes after, but there's different ways of playing it you know, you can look on the applications layer for a second and say, well, how is health care and medicine going to change >> right. >> and this is a foundational technology, and you look at ways of applying that so that you leverage your knowledge and your expertise. >> right. >> across different industries. >> always count on you to be with us and we appreciate it.

>> thank you thanks for having me. >> thank you for being here early. still to come, apple opening its door for the vision pro plus the january jobs numbers it's all coming up in just moments. before that, ceo john sankey joining us about the relationship with the pga and pebble bchea all that as "squawk box" rolls on big hour ahead.

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good morning it is jobs friday in america 30 minutes and counting to the big number ahead of that, a can't-miss interview with at&t ceo john stankey on consumer, wireless business and the way the game of golf is changing. and an earnings alert. highlights from exxon, shev rorn and biggest of big tech names as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box. good morning we are right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin at the nasdaq market site becky quick and joe kernen are at the at&t pro-am in pebble beach this morning a lot going on jobs numbers in a moment the big interview with the head

of at&t in a second, but to start this hour i want to show you some live pictures of happening right now from the apple store blocks away on fifth avenue a little north of here $3,500 vision pro on sale today. apple ceo tim cook opening the store greeting customers a big line almost around the block there. and steve kovac is here to talk what this moment means for apple. stephen, just wearing these goggles with joanna stern moments ago. >> yeah, yeah. i actually got a chance to catch up with tim cook yesterday just following up on earnings of course, we talked a lot about vision pro in addition to that kind of mixed earnings report from last week i asked cook, what is this for he's talked a lot about entertainment and things like that, but another thing besides that obvious use case of watching cool movies on your face, i guess, in this big

screen, b2b and enterprise, seemed excited about the prospect selling vision pro to businesses gave examples of doctors practicing virtual surgery using the vision pro, or walmart using an app that helping employees stock shelves better to find optimal place to put things on shelves. one thing i note i asked. other headsets tried this, microsoft going into enterprise with the hallow o lens google tried it. magically, a start-up, same thing. not a new idea they're chasing here, just doing it in kind of an apple way i know you tried it, andrew. sounds like you're kind of a believer aren't you >> a believer that i saw the future what i said actually online trying the second time yesterday is, if you can afford the future now, you will probably go buy it but if you can't afford the future today, you will wait.

it will be probably a lot better and lighter in the actual future, and either way, the future's pretty cool so, yes. i'm a believer we will all own something like this whether made by apple or meta in the future who knows? i recognize multiple years before we get to a place it's affordable for folks across the country. s 3$3,500 a true pro device. mac pro, pro as it gets and the professionals, those who can expense it or who are super sort of luxury device right now, i think. >> exactly i'm taking a flight home from san francisco to new york tonight. i'm expecting to see a couple vision pros in first class i wouldn't be surprised. >> do you -- do you have a pair with you love to see what it's like actually on a plane. >> i don't have a pair. >> material use case that would be -- for like a road warrior, it would be pretty great

thing is, by the way, you have to be in first class for a lot of flights, but it needs, for a lot -- needs electricity. >> exactly two-hour flight you're not going to make it between san francisco and new york city. no definitely not what's really cool you mentioned meta my initial impression. using these headsets since the very, very first op p opulus. it's executed so much better eye tracking, hand tracking. of course optics watching sports, super cool. i mean, so there's a lot -- >> if you put every expensive component part in it, you get pretty far i actually saw great benefit, i imagine holidays come, kids and things they may say, i can't afford this but take this, and that creates its own existence. we'll see. >> yeah.

>> steve, thank you. kick it over to folks not far from you right now becky? >> yeah. andrew, thank you. by the way, geoff yang said he ordered one of the vision pros he's waiting to see. he said anything that eddie q gets excited about he's got to check out and hopes it doesn't become a doorstop. excited. in line for one, too. all right. there is a shift happening in professional golf. and one that's noticeable right here at the clam bake this year. the at&t pro-am attracting more elite players, means more emphasis on the game than entertainment. the ceo of at&t, john stankey, sponsored thissee vent since 1986 a different field than in years in the past g. >> good to be here. >> big changes at&t was pushing behind the scenes.

put down more money to make it a bigger purse, draw a lot more pros hadn't been coming in the past cut down on celebrities here the whole thing has a different elevated feel. i know it's important time for companies to look at marketing spend, after thing dollars and what they get for it talk a little what happened. what went into the changes that are here >> just like everybody else, professional golf insulated from disruption, i don't think, a little bit going on in it. good news, doing this 39 years, have really good partners we work with including the pga tour put our heads together and said we need to do things differently given in the current environment. it's clear quality is important. you quget quality in golf get t best possible. this is the best field we've ever had at this event probably one best fields that have shown up in professional golf recently

focused on trying to make sure they have a place to come and compete at the highest level and then the unique add-on here what we're able to do in the be2b side our company as well as other industries intermixing allowing tremendous contact, relationships bonding, work, obviously business development a good thing for us. >> pebble beach always deserves this field it is, i would say, the number one rated, in terms of a course in the world. >> yeah. i agree with you and think if you ask players, this is the place they want to come play. >> 48 our 50, look at what the saudis were willing to pay to have a jon rahm or the top 48. you know what they're worth. they need to be here i think this -- look at that it says at&t then pebble beach pretty good. >> for 39 years. it's good. i'm glad we're able to get a formula we think is better, more structured formula that makes sense right now and we're

anxious going forward to see if we can kind of keep that formula right. >> every dollar's tight, as we now know i watched you in action, and the share price i don't know if i've ever seen a ceo that -- that's your singular focus. no b.s. >> absolutely right. you have to, looking at every dollar and whether or not it's effective. just like anybody else, i'd bay product. i'm a sponsor in this case i'm buying a product you want to know what you're buying you have to build multiple years of experience doing these things degree of uncertainty is not good it leads you to not know exactly what you're going to be getting in future years, and the faster the gulf settles in and gets its point, we're pretty clear what the product is we can deliver two years from now i think better for sponsors allowing me to allocate the capital better. >> how important the deal announced this week with pga and

gru group of billionaires investing trying to see that the players get a good portion, too? >> i'm not on the business development side of the tour they view it very important having capital right now in this space is very important. i think the way i would judge it is whether or not it's important and relevant is what happens to get that certainty in the game how do we get to the certainty of the product that's going to show up every year if it helps that to occur it's been very important. >> how do we judge this as to whether or not this experiment was a success? is it enough to have field here? is it -- what other things play into this? what's your determination deciding whether this is worth your money >> it's not just having the field. the field is an element of it. certainly a precursor to getting good television exposure, which drives the right kind of brand sdp exposure an element what we look at we have hopes because of better field we're going to see what

had been historically strong ratings for golf even stronger but we talked about earlier, also does it bring the right individuals into the event and as you see there's a lot of people around here that you get access to. able to do business with able to create ideas with. able to solve problems for, which is good for our business and on balance does that warrant the investment in the event and that's kind of how you look around the whole picture. >> at&t, i can remember, long ago. there have been multiple times to invest in at&t and it's changed so many times over the past 30, 40 years. >> yes, it has. >> at merylrill lynch what do you want at&t to be in five years and how do you beat competition? >> we're at an inflection point, built networks for purpose, wireless networks for mobile

purpose, home broadband. mixed networks for businesses. n technology so good right now you know from your own personal behavior you expect to be someplace and be connected no matter where you are up on an airplane in a canyon, at home, going into a convergence. i expect at&t to be the best convergence provider in the united states and we have the right asset base to do that and we're investing in all the mobile infrastructure necessary. investing in fixed infrastructure largest cyber provider in the united states. investing in this faster than anybody else in the industry to make sure we can do that and i expect five years from now you won't talk about my cable company or my home internet company and my mobile company. you'll be talking about who puts me on the internet at&t needs to be the best company putting people on the internet. >> who are your competitors as a result of that >> today there's probably solid five in that space i don't expect as you get to a

convergent structure that will hold i think there will have to be asset restructuring over time. in our case, we play organic card, because we have the asset base to grow from. but if you're a cable company running wireless service, wireless company needing to find fiber to pick up the massive amount of traffic that's coming in off the cell sites and you don't own fiber infrastructure you got to do asset reorientation. >> meaning m & a >> m & a, yeah consolidation. right? so i do think they'll be consolidation in the industry over the next decade basically allowing that to happen. >> do you think washington will allow that consolidation >> if they're smart they will, because -- >> oh. sorry. >> always hope, joe. i'm an optimist. >> we got you. better say that >> i think it's a capital-intensive industry and we're not makieing new news. >> current regulators and m & a are smart right now? >> right now probably need to do

a little work in this area it's clear the telecommunication policy we have open questions to move through but over time, they figure it out. >> almost sounds like you're talking -- your plan grow organically and the idea is other players will consolidate, that's tougher competition to you, bigger players coming in and after you? >> a capital-intensive industry that requires billions of dollars of investment every year pe we put $24 billion in the ground last year and will do it again this year. you want good structure in an industry to do that. to the extent you do that then you get the right k50iind of state-of-the-art networks can grow in capacity allow people to use the services when they want to use it and the way they want to use it. i absolutely this it would be healthy for the industry. >> in five years investing more or less than $24 billion a year? >> i don't know what that

brings, joe. i don't think it's going to be dramatically different than that i think historically as a percentage of revenues in our business, somewhere around 15% revenues reinvestment, the business every year, has been necessary to stay state-of-the-art with technology certainly what we're seeing develop in the cloud and how we're seeing hyperscaler infrastructure work we may see some moderation on that, but i'm not betting on it. >> will lily be around >> somewhere, yeah. i hope for her sake she is, yeah absolutely >> you know -- watching her -- talks to amazing people out there. you got jeter, awesome. >> well, you know, we have a lot of stories to tell and need a lot of people to do it i'm sure you'll see variety of persons we communicate with. >> reported earnings stock down for the year what are you seeing in the terms of strength of the consumer?

i don't think you've seen consumer not paying phone bills at any point recently? >> yeah. immediately after earnings, a little volatility. bounced right back up. about a day and a half later technical things going on in the market as we've been repositioning the business, working hard to get more institutional ownership into the stock and we are making progress around that probably don't have as much as i'd like volatility therefore tends to be a little higher. we saw a little of that as everybody sdigested the results ultimately got through it. what i see going forward and where i see the business, i'm really optimistic about what we're able to run forward. i'm absolutely, i was pleased with our release i think we hit every box we put out in front of the investment community for '23 and exceeded the vast majority of them. so i step back from it and i felt really good about what we saw there. and i think the way the market

saw it as they processed through the earnings, saw increased cash flow just like we said there would be sawimprovement, growth in the business. a guide moving forward that did that and saw technical issues around earnings decline driven by non-cash issues, pension accounting, dynamics on accelerated deappreciation because we are modernizing parts of the network faster for better services they got through all that and back on fundamentals the fundamentals of the businesses growing broadband, wireless customers spending more, staying longer with us the business is in a really strong place. >> competitors that outpaced at&t, market share, whatever, enterprise, are they not investing what they need will that come along to roost eventually or do they have some magic sauce? i remember how great mci was doing for a while and we finally

figured out, that's how they did it how is it happening? >> first of all, we of all-in on convergence, building infrastructure fixed and mobile. some playing exclusively mobile or a fixed card. i said running wireless infrastructure >> making the right move for the long term? >> that's the bet. right? if you believe that bet. it's obviously, i think, as i said, we're at an inflection point and investors watching to see which plays out. we feel confident in the direction we're heading. glancing as results printed this morning from a competitor and i don't have quarterly results nor do i have annual results of what i saw come in across the wire. i really like what i see. >> dividend, people don't need to wore at this point? in a solid place >> if you go back to '23 think about the other progress made, joe. not only coverage better, balance sheet continuing to shrink, two and a half just adjusted ebitda by mid-point next year.

i feel really good about momentum everybody should feel good about the equity and dividend dynamic more secure not less base and results seen in 2023. >> thank you for being with us today, john. appreciate it. >> absolutely. >> pebble beach. >> here we go. hoping for a great weekend. >> a lot of things seem to be clicking awesome. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. andrew, back to you. >> great interview. >> when we come back, january jobs report. a few minutes away stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

two energy giants out with earnings this morning. exxon emotional reporting mixed fourth quarter adjusted earnings beating street expectations. receive nhu light. ceo darren woods joined us on the show in the last hour. >> we anchored ourselves, benchmarked ourselves, and results in 2019, the year prior to the pandemic, to see the progress we've been making and if you see the results in 2023 and compare that to 2019, compare that to our peers, we're growing earnings in cash flow

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coming up next, the number of the morning the government's january jobs report we're going to bring you date taye, instant market reaction. a big jobs panel all happening in moments quk rwhe.nyer "sawbox"eturns after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box. approaching the government's january employment report. economy expecting a gain of 185,000 jobs that is the number to beat watch it ahead of the number welcomes jobs panelist. american action forum president former director of congressional budget office. also with us harvard kennedy school professor and former chairman economic advisers and hightower advisers chief investment strategist and portfolio manager and our own steve liesman as well as our own

rick santelli. literally 20 seconds before we get to the number. normally we go around the horn, get your gambling ahead. i don't think we have time to formally do that i'm going to send it over to our good friend rick santelli, who is, has got the number in just two seconds. rick >> a couple of seconds first jobs report, jobs, jobs, jobs, '24 is out and it is -- whopper 353,000. 353,000. we have to go on the way-back machine. the biggest non-farm payroll gains since january of '23 when it was 472,000 and if we look at the unemployment rate, it is 3.7 and remained at 3.7, and just for history's sake, the 3.4 low we

had was lowest since 1953. that was an april of last year if we look at the average hourly earnings, a huge jump. up 0.6%. up 0.6%. and equals march of '22. find a higher go to january of '22 and also for some context there, the amount of year over year is also popping 4.5% we were expecting 4.1% the year over year average hourly earnings began as a data set in 2007. pre-covid, all the way to when it started, the high was 3.6%. it's 4.5%. 4.5 highest level back to february of '23. if we look at the average workweek, 34.1 that is a drop

it's been at 34.3 or 34.4 going all the way back pretty much to beginning of last year. so that dropped 34.1 i don't even know if i have a record going back. that equals march of 2020. and 62.5 is the labor force participation rate, and if you recall, 62.5 was last month as well it is going in the wrong direction. finally, the under er employmen u6, 71.to 7.2. 7.2 highest in that series interest rates popping equities dropping and this is a report filled with strength, surprises and if you're thinking average hourly earnings year over year, month over month, will be something that chairman powell and the federal reserve board studies, you're darn toot in'

that's correct andrew, back to you. >> to our panel. instant reaction steve's looking down at the numbers. his quick take how you're reading this, steve? >> this morning i told you a lot of talk out there about an upside surprise. most seasonal adjustments. can't tease out how much of this was seasonals at the moment, but the trouble is that you have surpassed what might be expected, if this were all seasonal then i would point, i hope rick can back me up on this looks like a massive revision to december. from 216 posto 33 as pwell revi november haven't had chance to look at detail i did see professional business services up strong you had private education up 112,000 and leisure and hospitality just up 11 a lot of coming there. government 36,000.

a lot of this was private sector so i think a piece of this is going to be chocked up, a chance to do work on these numbers, season's adjustment issues. >> 126,000 126,000. >> plus? right? >> revision upside you're right february, early february, january jobs report always has some surprises. >> but this one especially because of the pandemic, rick, and what's happened with that. the last january was all messed up so the seasonal messed up. we expected that trouble is, this is maybe almost 100,000 over the top forecast i saw. that was already elevated because of the seasonals, plus the prior suggesting we have strength close with this. maybe powell new something on wednesday when he said, you know what march ain't on. >> okay. jason -- >> i don't know how much he knew ten year note yield -- 26 basis points on the week before the number anyway, continue i'm sorry. >> take me inside three offices

this morning take me inside jay powell's office, take me inside the white house, and then i want you to take me inside trump headquarters who'scutting commercials and what are they going to say >> look, the council of economic advisers first place in the government to get this number. mid-day yesterday. they then transmitted it to the fed. jay powell had no idea this number was coming on wednesday but, boy -- >> just to be clear. of course he didn't, jason want to be clear i'm making a joke there. basically making a comment that powell had it right on wednesday. >> yeah. no, no they're not sitting there thinking, like, oh, we need to cut now. two halves to the decision to cut. one is, are you worried about economic weakness? yeah maybe the january number was a seasonal adjustment but you have upward revisions and jobs growing at a pace of about 300,000 a month. over the last three months you can't just put all of that

down to seasonals. then the one threat that remains to the economy on the inflation side is that the low inflation is maybe transitory we're not in steady state when it comes to the wage side and you have 0.6 up one weird thing in this data i want to understand better. one thing you didn't mention, rick, on the soft side is hours were down 0.6% really a -- >> i did mention it. >> you did mention it. sorry, sorry >> i did mention it. >> that means weekly earnings were actually down, not up so more purchase hour, paid. per hour taking home less if they got, for example, hours wrong. people worked more hours than they said they were. then you wouldn't actually have had a big gain in hourly wages one part of the data that you need to unpack to make it as hot as it looks. >> doug -- >> productivity. >> i want to kick it over to doug his perspective and i want to

understand, again, maybe it's a political question if you're cutting commercials this morning, in the white house, or over, dour mar-a-lago. what do those commercials say? >> i think the commercials from the white house say jobs, jobs, jobs the president screaming more jobs than anyone else. down in the trump camp looking at that average hourly earnings saying, look, we still have an inflation problem. joe biden created this inflation problem and you've had to live with it. i think that's the clean political read the actual read is not clean at all. this is a very messy report. one question i have. can't see the report in front of me is what does the household survey look like past two months a disconnect how many on the household side >> steve, do you have that number handy >> coming right now. >> be careful. because the population control's cha changed. december to january. >> i know. right. exactly. >> household shows minus 31.

that's what i got for household. minus 31. >> and controls -- yeah. this makes me think we see another set of revisions, take away a lot of january numbers moving forward that number seems too big, steve. i'm with you doesn't add up >> doug, looks like the seasonal's added back 3 million, which is exactly in line with the prior ones i don't see it as a particularly large seasonal adjustment. a little more work on this again. >> right. >> household, very volatile, by the way. i don't really go there until i absolutely have to, doug i know you think the same. i wasn't -- >> not designed to look at changes and levels not what it's meant to look at. >> i don't look at it in isolation very much, usually a bit under disconnect from the payroll. turning indicator. keeping my eye on it distribution of jobs, i guess. past couple reports all health, leisure, hospitality, government, often education.

are we getting broader increases in that right now? >> steph, talk about equities. >> yeah. >> a little sell-off on the dow, about 77 points down now nasdaq, though, still holding up, i imagine in large part on the back of tech earnings from yesterday. 85 on nasdaq 1 s&p up about 11 points take on equities, impact on equities longer term, make what you think jay powell will do, or not? >> yeah. well, look headline number is really, really good. the unemployment at 3.7 also better than expectations obviously all looking at average hourly earnings. most important thing that's what powell is looking at 45 year over year is hot take march off the table and even may off the table in terms of cuts. probably something like in the second half of the year we'll start to get action from them, but we have a lot of date to get

through. bottom ayn, in the sweet spot of this economy in terms of growth. running at 4.2% from the atlanta fed gdp tracker. got pmis bottoming new orders inflecting. consumer continues to be spending look at amazon's numbers yet that's a big tell. and you also had pretty good productivity numbers in unit labor costs out yesterday. i think over time we will see inflation kind of settle out does it get to the 2% number for the fed? probably not that's why we're going to talk about maybe second half cuts what does this mean for equities means better earnings. a strong economy means better earnings and that is what's happening. we had 45% of the companies reported 78% of companies so far beating. guidance actually pretty good. across the board, andrew not just tech. it's been in some of the industrial companies as well some of the energy companies, too. i think you're going to see a broadening out in the overall market this is good news for stocks, i think, if we get through the

volatility the next couple days. >> doug -- >> go ahead, steve. >> just quickly. i think steph ended up in a good place talking about the data yesterday. productivity data as well as eck aye. employment cost index. something powell watches more closely than i think wage data there's better wage data than this here. the other wage data shows waging coming down. eci down 0.9%. wage, adp wage data coming down. that's going to be more influential to him, i think. you have a big issue out there now. will the fed abide strong job growth if it doesn't come with essentially really strong wage growth in all of the indicators? that's going to be a really important thing for them to figure out. >> doug, your sense of -- you were concerned or thought perhaps that the economy may turn negative earlier in the

year maybe i'm wrong what your expectation was. >> right. >> how do you see this playing itself out >> this is a -- you know, a little bit of a positive, but i still think the basic phenomenon i see and worry ob, household is strong, been strong and business fixed investment essentially flat second half of 2023. very modest growth or zeros, and in every post-war recession except the pandemic it's business fixed investment that leads you down. i'd like to see that firm up giving me a lot more confidence. otherwise, something's got to give household sector can't spend in disconnection from the business sector forever that's the thing i've been watching >> rick, now that you've been processing the numbers you get to say them aloud think them through, but what's your take? >> my take, markets are paying most attention obviously to the

fed on the short end an idea, before the number was released we had two years down 12 on the week we had ten years down 26 right now you have two years up on the week by basis point and you're still about 16 basis points down on the week on tens. look at this the way we used to, okay strong data should steepen the yield curve and long data treasury yields should move up exactly the opposite was happening. it's totally a preoccupation with the fed and somebody mentioned pmis bottoming i don't know seem pmi is ws 16 moss in contraction i don't know about bottoming. steve liesman i address this look at these numbers, saying, aww, something might be wrong with it. i don't disagree so many disparities in the direction of the report and data, important data, leads me to one area. seasonalities are screwed up be careful how deep you interpret these numbers. >> okay. >> just to follow-on what rick

said, andrew. >> uh-huh? >> the proct for march cut down from 25, even doubt about a may cut down to 70% probability. >> how many cuts for the year, education? >> still five and change instead of six and change. backing off. >> and jason how many cuts this year do you think? >> i think we'll have four, andrew, but they're going to certainly not start in march this isn't one-month's strength. consistent with the last several months of data i don't think this is all noise. >> thanks to the panel all of you thank you for walking us through all of that in realtime. meantime, hand it over to becky on the west coast. becky? >> andrew, thank you. when we come back we will go deeper into the blowout jobs report and the state of the nationwide economy and the labor picture. marc morial from the national urban league will be joining us.

stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc live from the at&t pro-am at pebble beach.

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former new orleans mayor and now president ceo of the national urban league great to see you, marc we tried to figure out -- >> good fob with you. >> -- trying to juxtapose number wis a with a lot of americans and we struggle maybe you have a good insight into it. you have a couple of years tough inflation, prices don't come down inflation moderates but people still feel like they're paycheck's not going far enough. real wages growing now, i guess, but relatively recent. i think this last may or something, and so people still have less buying power than they did from a couple years ago. does that explain things >> you know, first of all, thanks for having me you know, what's striking about this report is how it beat every single expectation from every,

if you will, economist in the country. no one predicted a jobs report like this. what i would say, and i would answer your question is, the professional economists have, and many watchers, predicted pretty consistently for the last three years that you would have a hurricane, a tsunami, a tropical storm or heavy rain when it comes to the economy they didn't predict the sunshine of consistent job growth, and now lessening inflation, increasing consumer confidence i heard many of the business leaders on this morning express optimism by 2024 no one expected that there is a hangover from covid and the recession, and americans are feeling that pain. but let's understand that one of the biggest challenges we face when it comes to americans'

ability to afford to live at the quality of life they want is housing costs. mortgages are up rents are up it's expensive it's expensive for young professionals. it's expensive for working families it's expensive for single moms it's expensive for for mature couples to be able to have quality housing, and there's an issue washington and the private sector should confront, and that is we need a housing strategy that produces more affording units, that produces more housing in this country, because the 20-year trend is now impacting and affecting us, so against this powerful report -- i mean, this, you know, i saw every prediction of 175, 200, maybe, was optimistic. now, we're 350, and the consistency of it. so, we should take it as a positive report, but we should

understand what really is driving the pain for many americans, and it is, i think, inflation when it comes to housing and the cost of a basic necessity of life. >> that certainly is something -- one of the pieces of the puzzle, trying to understand this upcoming election, marc, because you would think that the president's numbers among minorities and people benefitting from things would be at historic levels, and that's not the case. it's constantly pointed out that it's former president trump, that his numbers have been increasing where it doesn't follow with the -- what you just described to me. why? >> i always tell people, it's dangerous to read too much in early polls. if you followed early polls, obama would have been beat clinton would have been beat george bush 43 would have been beat these early polls, i think

people in politics, we all follow them, but what will count is where this election is come august and september when people really kick in, when campaigning and advertising begins, but there's a long-term sort of sense that we're on an economic rollercoaster. we had the great recession of '7 and '8, then we had a recovery then, we had covid, and the impact of that so, i think what many americans -- i know americans in black communities and brown communities, unlike every other american, want is stability. not chaos, not confusion, to give them an opportunity to build their personal finances, build their balance sheets, build a secure future. so, i just think people should step back and say, this is a good report, and look, when it comes to these reports, i mean, people -- i looked at the economist panel. i think people spin it depending

on where they stand politically, and we should factor that in, but i like to call it as i see it it's a good report >> it's a good report. the election will be interesting, because there are still -- you can see some populism and the feeling that the common man or woman has sort of just been left behind, and sometimes that resonates with -- doesn't fit the political profile that you would think of, right, marc? there are people that pine for the days of, you know -- go ahead. >> yeah, we'll talk more about the election we'll have to come on more and talk about the economy >> let's do. >> you look like you're in a fun place today. >> yes we are but it's all relative. there's worries abound out here as well, marc, when you got to go out there but yes, it's great. thank you. appreciate it. >> yes, enjoy. thank you.

>> thanks. andrew coming up, nuveen's saira malik is going to join us. ay tuned we're coming back with that analysis in just a moment. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks.

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after that stronger than expected jobs report, we have seen the futures move lower. dow futures down now by close to 120 points s&p futures still up by about four points. the nasdaq indicated up by about

55 joining us right now is saira malik, chief investment officer at nuveen, and saira, how do we read this? a stronger economy has to be good news for stocks, but for anybody who was counting on a cut in interest rates, don't hold your breath >> hi, becky these employment numbers throw a monkey wrench into the disinflation narrative for two reasons. one, average higher hourly earnings, up 0.6%, and also the workweek numbers, which are down 0.6% what does that mean for investors? first of all, the fed, it pushes out rate cuts likely to the second half of the year. our call has only been for three to four rate cuts this year because of elongated inflation looking at the markets, tech has been leading here. we're just passing through the biggest week for tech earnings my question is, what is the catalyst to take us further? it's going to be challenging unless market returns can broaden out, which i think will be a headwind and difficult for markets to do. finally, we saw how fragile the markets can be this week just go back a couple days when

the fomc threw water on that first rate cut markets declining with the mini-bank crisis all of that makes it tough for the market to find reasons to rally from here, especially given today's number >> ron was with us earlier this morning. stifel thinks we're at the high water mark for the s&p 500 this year because they think earnings are going to come in about half the range that the street's expecting at this point. i guess a lot riding on earnings >> our price target for the s&p 500 this year was 4,950. there's not a lot of upside. the key question is going to be, can this economy continue to hold up in the face of higher interest rates and higher inflation? what we're seeing today is yes, it can, but under the hood, we do have consumer delinquencies increasing that's an issue. credit card delinquencies are up manufacturing is starting to recover. the driver has been tech stocks

and i think a lot of have and have nots in the technology companies from apple to amazon, and whether that can continue again like it did last year is pretty questionable to us. i think we're getting at valuations levels where we have to think, what is it that can take this market higher? i don't see that catalyst. >> a stock like meta, though, up because of those incredibly strong earnings reports. if you tie it back to earnings, if they can deliver, hard to not reward them. >> i agree these tech companies did a great job normalizing post-covid they invested heavily in their workforces they are cutting back to meet a normal environment amazon, a winner because it invested heavily in logistics, which is manufacturing, which we're bringing closer to home, so meta, amazon, winners, but you're also seeing apple, which is having a challenging time normalizing post-covid, higher regulations in their app store, difficulties in china. some of these megacaps are on the flip side. finally, touching on that second half of this year with elections coming, around the world, 77

elections this year, 60% of gdp going to the polls if you look at years when the u.s. election as a leader, when the results are going to be close, markets tend to be more volatile to the downside, so i think that could be another headwind for the second half of this year. >> saira, thank you very much for joining us today great to see you folks, that does it for us for the week we're going to head back to new york city. andrew, we will see you back there on monday. we'll see all of you there on monday have a great weekend, everyone right now, it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange stocks weathering some cross-currents as the jobs number has its hottest print in a year upward revisions, even as wages rise above estimates ten-year is a little suspicious, just flirting with 4%.