the capital to go by, so, you're still going to see that demand there, and then, that's going to take away from the spending. , so talk about mcdonald's segura. >> used to say 28% what's the threshold, or they wouldn't approve you for a loan if your income to payment was more than 28%, whatever it. is sderot, great being with you my, friends. thank you get to power, luxury. body >> closing down starts right now. >> all right, thank so much, we'll get a closing bell on this hour, i'm scott mentioned -- that new york stock exchange. it's make-or-break out begins with a week that was, and the rally that still is. so, what now? with most of the mega caps in the fifth meeting in the rearview mirror, is it still safe to buy into this burst? we're going to ask our experts over the final stretch, including fund stretch tommy in just a moment. by the way, we also have fed chair red vice chair which clara the, former fed vice chair, rich color, coming up in just a bit. first though, your scorecard at 50 minutes to go in regulation like that. there is the dow and -- look at the s&p enough. dak, so as we end at halftime

today, i was wondering out loud, hey, are we going to close above 40 9:50 on the s&p 500? i undershot that i think. are we going to close above 49 70? on the s&p 500? we'll see. over the next 45 or 55 or so minutes, that's, like obviously, the big winner amazon, beta, and those other stocks are rallying surprisingly not at all that is the netflix moment to shine, as those stocks, look at, manifested in the, year amazon helping to, following its own impressive earnings reports. apple,. it's been a little volatile in the session, following soared quarterly numbers, even though, that, has moved, arenas a lot about where this market is. let's take a look at yale. severe mostly higher after that's much stronger than expected jobs report this morning. all of it takes us to talk about a. what it will take to keep stocks moving, even higher from here. let's ask a fun stress managing partner and head of research, timely. tom it's with us. welcome. back >> welcome, scott. good to see. you >> you. two years remarkable market.

what is driving this, and what is driving this continued acceleration as we hit this final stretch today? >> got, i think 2024 is your reeling the stock market. it's getting stronger. because it is proving to be extremely resilient. last, week tesla missed 11%. s&p was up for the week. this week, we had two big thanks miss, and disappoint, and the markets of, course, were roaring. as we end the week, it's the 14th consecutive week, i think has a lot to do with one, the economy is incredibly resilient. the fed, i think, has turned dove-ish. we don't know the timing of the first cut. inflation, i think, is falling basically like a rock, and we know there's a lot of cash on the sidelines because there is over six trillion dollars sitting in money markets and get the s&p you know, just in the last six weeks, generated more return than in an entire year of owning money market

cash. >> he, has been unbelievable. so, march, does it matter? is that the lesson of this week? >> yes. well, i think the bond market really cares whether it's may or march. i think that the stock market really should just care that the fed has gone from fighting inflation and almost given the economy a hard track to wonder where they're trying to manage the business cycle. so, if they don't feel comfortable doing this kind of marsh and instead, i don't think you should have any effect on equities and how they do today. >> the interesting part i guess is what you will do. to its sort of this change in focus of the fed, and i think chair powell alluded to this as much in the news conference. when you cited, i think a multiplications, the strength of the labor market is not necessarily a bad thing anymore. so, to speak. so they don't feel perhaps, as though, they need to really lean on that to get inflation to come down, because they've been surprised to the degree it's already been coming down. >> that's right. the biggest and spreads this

week s.e.c., of a intimate cost index. that number came in very tame, and the fed chair powell barely mentioned the labor market in the last press conference. i think it's because the job market is still adding jobs. there was a big surprise, but the unemployment rate is not really falling precipitously, and it's not creating a lot of wage pressure. so, so far i, think the labor market isn't going to be the source of the concern for the fed. >> yeah. what about the broadening off the market? it's been slower than i think when many probably you as well, half expected. why so? >> i think that the broadening of the stock market requires equity inflows. i mean, we already know that for the entire month of january, retail investors were pulling money out of the stock market. maybe i'll start to allocate in february, but the months that they did, which was december, we saw spectacular move in the russell 2000. do i think retail investors are going to be taking money out of the stock market? in fact, someone had showed me that margin that is now than

20% from its highs. i mean, you know, if that's any signal to me, i think broadening is gonna come really sharply. but it comes when retail begins to bust stocks. >> i'm thinking to myself, though, why getting close? now what we really get inflows? i don't know, the next stop on the s&p 500 feels like it's 5000, tom! a time for inflows seems like it's past. now, maybe people will be reticent to move money out of, you know, money markets and whatever else into equities at these levels, no? >> yes, scott. i mean, of course, the was better in october, but nobody wanted to own stocks october 2022 were october 2023, but of course, there's a lot of research showing that buying stocks at new highs isn't a bad thing. look at nvidia, right? if someone would have sniffed up buying at the new highs, of, course sets up another 40%. i do think you are correct that 5000 as an important round number is a level we have to watch. if this is a strong market 5000

will mean anything. but in february, 5000 could be you know, a short term top before there's a big air pocket. that's a level to watch. >> yeah, it reminds us of what your targets are? >> our year and for s&p is 5200. but given how strong january was and what it implies historically, it's usually, the full year plays out in the first month, you, know i think 5200 is probably a little low. it could be much higher. >> so, you don't think the markets too expensive here, and some are suggesting? >> you know, expensive is in the eye of the holder. excluding thing, investors are paying 15 times 2025 earnings. i don't think that's very demanding. so i feel comfortable buying the s&p and even small caps here. small caps, as you know, haven't really participated, but they're hugely leverage to effect cuts and very, very sensitive to investor inflow. so i think there's a lot of

juice in a lot of areas. >> you stick into your 50 plus percent return on small caps for this year? >> yes. i think that's a reasonable target. what we have to keep in mind a small caps on a price to book basis are getting treated at 44% of the price and pizza book. the only time i ever saw that was 1999. that was low, the 40 year low, and it started a 12 year launch point for that performance. so, i think the risk reward is very good for small. caps >> and what point you get concerned about the mega caps, which you've suggested from the outset are the place to be? you've obviously been 1000 percent correct, but at what point did you say okay, well, maybe this is a little much. >> well, it's gonna be addressed mccaul, because if someone asked me do you want to own these for five years? because they have structural votes? absolutely, so, i think how much of that five years gets

price in this year, i just don't know. it's possible that the fangs could have a great year in 2024, and, then you know, consolidate for two years. that happened with amazon, right? it consolidated for a few years, now it started to break out. i think investors just need to buy those and really hold on to them. but i think there's still a lot of areas that haven't participated that could really start to outperform. >> like what? give me something. >> well, for, instance i think when the fed starts cutting, you know, investors are gonna change their calculus around financials and real estate, because one of the biggest risks for commercial real estate is the risk of refinancing. if the feds turned dovish, it's going to get investors easy to refinance these properties. that's really good for the banks in the regional banks, of, course that's going to influence a small cap. so, i think the moment the feds actually starts cutting, even though it's going to be widely anticipated, could be a really important point for some sectors. >> well, all right, let's bring in cameron dawson now of new edge wealth. alex kantrowitz of big

technology. alex,, course cnbc contributor, great to have you both. cameron, i turn to you first. just say thomas bullish is an understatement, but he spent right. will he still be? >> i think that tom's point about they're still being room for people to get drawn into this market is a really good one. what we find in history is valuations don't matter in the short term. they matter to, five years out, and what could lift valuations even higher, even on the s&p 500 index level now, at 20.4 times forward, is expensive from a market cap waiting, but because there's still room for allocations to move from about 67% of stocks, back up to 71%, which was the peak we got in 2019 and 2021, that would suggest there still room for people to get drawn in. >> 52 hundreds, who suggested, could be even conservative. when somebody says that, what's your reaction? >> i think you have to make the assumption if over 5200, that not only the fed is your very

much friends, which would support valuation staying at this elevated level, and that you have an economy that remains resilient through 2025. because you have to see that earnings growth deliver 424 a 10%, 25 at 11%, if there is doubt about that, and that's where that 5200 plus will be become more of a challenge. >> that's a good point, tom. so what about that? it's not so much about what if you've done for me lately, and what will you continue to do for me market, it's a what will you continue to do over a much longer stretch than i think some are thinking. >> that's right. well, i think one point we have to be aware of it's actually not gonna be where earnings get delivered in 2025. it's what the market believes can be delivered in 2025 by the end of this year. because you, know we still have 12 months after that. mirrors i think i significant improvement in earnings visibility underway. 43% of the companies that reported earnings so far in the s&p or having 10% earnings

growth. it was 36% a year ago. the iss am hit 49, manufacturing, which is the highest since october 2022. that looks like it's breaking to the upset. that is highly correlated to s&p earnings growth. and of course, to the cyclical piece. and of course we haven't had massive guidance cuts. so far, 79% of companies are 27.6%. so it's been an earning season. maybe the star seven reacted yet, but if you ask me and the snp do 11% earnings growth next year, i think you can do better, because we know that technology's spent actually could accelerate pretty dramatically over the next couple of years as companies start to find applications for a.i.. so, i think 11% don't seem very demanding for next year. >> speaking of learning, speaking of huge movers, alex, the summit move is extraordinary to say the least. what's your reaction to it? >> first of all, it must feel sweep for mark zuckerberg on vision pro day, the story isn't

medical wing up 20%. having the device before apple, beating the apple ads embargo, while apple tries to get its device out and test disappointing guidance. so, i think you have to be thrilled if your meta. obviously, it shows that apple is no longer a problem for them, and very importantly, they figured out reels. that's what i think when we talk about room to grow, that's where they have the room to grow. if they get a hold on monetizing the short term videos, we figure out to apply their data on them, that's an area for massive growth for facebook, not only, facebook maybe instagram at some point, and that's something that you have to watch in terms of facebook's runway. it might not be the end here. >> what do you make of what this company's been able to do? let's just call it over the last 18 months from that day in about 18 months ago, in october, we are broadmoor since the letter to zuckerberg gets a look, it's time to get fit, it's time to focus on what really matters. from then, to now, it's hard to put into words. what would your words be?

>> i mean, brad kirschner is totally entitled to his victory lap. i saw he was on halftime report and power to him, right? his letters that potentially sparked this within meta. you look at what was going on then and the results now. 22% less costs. 10 million in incremental profit. and in this quarter alone, that is just unheard of. >> yeah. it's crazy right there. 267 and a half percent. that gain in metal stocks since that letter. what's the take away from you on this, because now that the stocks are nvidia in the really were? >> earnings are efficient of the most important thing in this market. because what we've seen is that earnings revisions had been narrow. that defines why we see the narrow leadership in the market, but something, some of that asks gone from a nine-hour estimate for 24 to 8:19 dollar estimate for 2024. so, what we can see is that the only two sectors that have had positive earnings for efficient our tech and calm services. but wondered that some market leadership.

you can see the same thing about the equal weighted index. equal waited earnings have been revised down about 7%, but the s&p is flat. earnings revisions are absolutely imperative. >> i wonder, too, tom, as to whether the fact that apple has these issues in china, the stock was lower, and yet, even a test turned around today. that has to be reviewed in some corners as a real positive in terms of action. does that just continue to tell you that lisa stocks are going to trade as a group? you continue to call them things, others call them the max seven, at some, point you thought well, maybe we'll get some divergence between the group. now, you can certainly say that will tesla is has a limited itself for the time being, from the back seven by virtue of what's happened to that stop, but how would you view that? >> scott, you, know i think the fangs of the max seven are very specific ecosystem. the really widely held by hedge funds. there is enormous research and

annual global support around the. betrayed look water. and if the stocks, met apple and met a, betrayed more today than the entire european, on the european equity markets combined. so, i think when money flows into equities or people want to put on trades, they are finding the things as a group. of course, russell 2000's 84 sent to the entire stock market cap is a tiny. one investor start allocated to the russell 2000, we could see explosive move. so, yes. i think the market does move thematically, he thinks this one thematic trade. >> you think we're gonna get hammered this broadening that tom expects? >> i think it all comes down to lowering provisions. you look at russell 2000, its earnings of a cut by over 20% over the last year and on the positioning side of thing is it's interesting is that russell move that we saw over the course of the fourth quarter. what you saw is, enforcement of the russell 2000 that we're nearly equivalent to what we saw on the meme stock boost of late 20, early 21.

so, we chase that really a lot. what we say is that the market has to broaden. earnings revisions have to broaden this year. it's not i like to have it's a need to. have >> you think work matters or needs to matter? as long as you can see the path forward. before it was to muddy, now we can actually see a path towards cuts. it's all that matters? >> i think it still does matter. the russell 2000 is still down today despite the s&p 500 enough. tex macarthur effectively a leverage bet on your interest. right, so my interests are by fire because the fed is slightly biased a little more hawkish than what very dovish bought markets have priced in, then russell will continue to struggle. >> these rates of had an impact of times on tech, not so much today, amazon's being overshadowed by meta. its own gains today are -- you could take a look at what amazon's done today. highest profit level in two years, the guidance was strong, they've got these initiatives

in a.i. with their own right, now anthropic and rufus, what's your take here? >> i love rufus. amazon is really difficult to navigate as a consumer, you try to find a product, he really struggled to find, it image that's conversational bought, what you're gonna, by if it will tell you. that's great. i think it's awesome. and it's also amazon being willing to sacrifice at revenue and a better user experience. we talked about what's called. doctor algal responded. here's amazon being proactive and saying even if it's going to cost revenue in some ways, maybe it hurts advertising a little bit, we're going to make our experience better, and a profits are 13.4 billion, which is super high for amazon, which were not used to seeing big profits. it just shows that the company is changing. by the way, at the right time, what we're going to be outside of this world of zero interest rates and in a world where interest rates might be lower, but they're still going to be higher than they were. we need those companies to turn profit, and are looking at places like advertising, places

like cloud services, and they're not saying we're gonna be the no profit company of the jeff bezos era, to be the a.w.s. company. or to entertain your company, the evidence company, introduced advertising into prime video, they're playing the game that the market wants them to plate right now, and that's why we're running of. >> but way that the market is running up especially in the nasdaq, and by virtue of how big apple is in its place in the other industries to, that its ability to go up, even if apple doesn't. you know, apple is a modest loser. what is your big assessment from the arctic support? there is an undoubted problem in china. i don't know one that's going to get better. nobody truly does. what are great take away from this report. >> we talk about the market being able to rise one apple doesn't, we have to, say it's no longer the most, the highest valuation company. do you want to have a eye as your story or the vision pro as your story? a. i, by the way, that is what is leading the market right now. so, i thought apples results kind of construct concerning,

that's what they are so flat today. maybe up a little bit. when they guide towards another quarter of revenue contraction, what's that going to make? five active six, and by the, way this, one that kind of, think was a gift in terms of being able to ramp, because they had a lot of iphone that moved into the second quarter last year. so, they are compass actually easier to make. , so they can be flat, but, still they are no longer, i mean, they've always been such an important component in this index. that influences starting to be defused a little bit and microsoft is picking up some of that lack. >> it's that a potential weakness, tom? or a sign of strength for this market, that it can withstand any you know, period of weakness from an apple? >> i think it's a lot of strength, scottie. you know, apples number two, vessels number eight, number two and eight, you know, did have great reactions earnings and get, the s&p is pushing on to all-time highs. i would consider that not only strength, but it's an example of a broadening market, right?

he didn't take the rest of the things down, either. >> a lot of the day, you're looking at the s&p, tom. you are right next to you, we, were anyway. and we are the highest of the, day were a 49 72 and a half. i appreciate you being with us very much, tom. we'll talk to you. sue karamin, thanks, and of course, thanks to you as well. quite a day. >> what a week. we are getting started. up next, if not, march than one? former federal reserve richard clarida is with us next. will tell us what today's book jobs signals to the fed when cuts might be coming in his mind, and had to invest around it. we're live for the new york stock exchange. closing bell is coming right back. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. you i am here becausef the markethey saw how cancer are.

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join xfinity rewards on the xfinity app or go to xfinity1stand10gs.com for your chance to win. here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. welcome back. we are rallying big-time today on the heels of those strong results out of big tech. even with a stronger than expected jobs report, which maybe cement the fact that march is not going to happen, especially rj palliser justin during his news conference,, so maybe we really do need to move

on from. that for better clarity, let's ask former fed vice chair richard clarida. he has been for global economic adviser, joins us now. good to see you, welcome back. >> that's a be here on the show. >> you told our producer on this segment that today's jobs report would be quote and welcome news for the fed. why wouldn't it be exactly the opposite? >> well, you know, the fed is trying to engineer that soft landing, and i think in their minds, 350,000 jobs looks a little robust and particular, the tick up in average hourly earnings. i also think,, however that there are typically some seasonal factors in january, so, that need to secure a huge amount of weight but there are certainly picking up a little bit softer landing than you would get from this report. >> but did you have the idea that, what was once a we lead to really hurts the job market from the fed it's clearly seem

to morph into a look, we don't want to ruin a good thing, so, it's a really delicate balance? >> it is. and i thought the chair was very effective. the other day, when he indicated that the fed welcomes a strong labor market, you know, evidence that we're going to achieve the disinflation that they want. so, if the fed actually likely strong labor market, but they also want inflation to return to 2%. >> were you surprised by what he said about no march at was asked that question explicitly as he did? >> i was a bit surprised at the press conference because a straight reading of the fc statement at two conveyed to me that he and the committee wanted that optionality. i'll give jay powell credit. he did, say i think first person, i think it's too soon. , so, maybe the other 18 folks have a different view. but, yeah. he certainly did conveyed his own thinking there.

and for what it's worth, i agree with that. i just don't think we'll have all that much more data between now and march. so, if it made sense not to move in january, i think, probably, in march as well. >> i think it opens the door in any way to dissent some more fractured fed, if you will? the debate becomes more rigorous in the room? >> that's good we'll have. and i think it's been remarkable, how to unify the committee has been through, what was spent a challenging appear at the terms of aggressive rate, a progressive rate hikes. but, i haven't really picked up on that too much in the speeches by the different official. so, i think it's probably too soon to worry about that. >> what makes sense to you, then, in terms of what's your own gaming this out? when does the first cut happen? >> i think, especially after today, she is looking like a pretty sensible meeting have on

hand. there will be lots of more data than. i think the committee has decided that they're done. the chair morales confirmed that, and they are discussing cuts and so i don't think it's for -- mayor june, but i would like to. june >> and what you think we get total this year? >> i'm still in the three camp. i know that makes me boring, because that's what they wrote down in september. but i think three cuts beginning in june would be my baseline right now. >> what do you think where take us on what the stock market is doing? this rally is nothing short of incredible. new highs, obviously, new record highs, and we're, it's not that far away from s&p 5000. does that make them an easy? nervous? what? >> it's a good question, scott. you know, as recently as november, they were citing financial conditions directly in the statement. you may have noticed they took out any reference to financial conditions in the statement two

days ago. first, they're looking at financial conditions, but they're also looking at credit surprise another indicator. so, i think they're thinking it's consistent with a soft landing. the chair or use that term yet. but i think right now, that is what they're interpreting it. >> do you have any worry whatsoever that they wait too long to cut, that they're backward looking stuff, or they're just too afraid to come to a consensus to move, and it becomes undue harm to an economy that may never had to do in the first place? >> and for those arguments. i respect that to some extent, but i think again, given the data flow that we're seeing, that would not be front and center worry for me. i think we have enough indication of the economy slowing, and of, course if the economy slows and inflation falls faster than expect, then,

you can move more rapidly. so, i've heard the argument, but i'm not very persuaded by. it >> i could say, if you look at offsetting's cape carteret's blowout. why would they go in march, but then, if you look at employment cost index for example, or the ceo, all of those are trending overwhelmingly and the place that makes the fed most comfortable because they look at those metrics, perhaps, closer than anything else. so, i could say those who suggest, why not march? >> and i think, well, i think the answer is that, although the progress on inflation in the last six months has been welcome and remarkable, it's been driven largely by goods inflation. services inflation is still running a little bit hotter than would be consistent with the target. but again, i think they are going to cut. they think they're going to cut, and they'll certainly,

given the data they're looking, at there we'll be a live meeting. i think that's will be that. >> and he doesn't remind that you have a softer so-called no landing? >> scott, i want distinguish keenan out landing a soft landing. i think with no landing, you know, you don't really get inflation returning to 2%. so, i think look. there's a police, this is going to cycle. we've been surprised when i was there in 2021, we were surprised. so, you have to be a little bit humble about forecasting, but things are looking very, very favorable right now. and i think that should be the focus. the principal worry of the fed.

is that necessarily true and isn't the inflation data proving that it might not be? >> i think what i would look at, scott, is it coming from improvement since supply? now, we've had some really good news and productivity. productivity is very noisy, but the last 4 to 6 quarters has been strong. we were getting good news on labor force participation, but that's been sort of flatlining recently. and so, i think that you can get strong growth in disinflation if an incoming from the productivity side. it's coming from the demand side, then it's really what rate hikes are meant to address. so i think they are looking at the surprise supply side pretty closely. >> that's why we have these immaculate disinflation, right? which working your round because conventional wisdom would suggest to you, will maybe inflation can't come down if you still have -- but in fact, perhaps you can. mr., i appreciate your time. thank you very much, see you soon. >> thank you. >> all right, that's rich clarity joining us there.

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25 minutes to go before the closing bell. let's get that a purpose evens out for the stocks are watching. pippa? >> hey, scott, well clorox shares cleaning up today in the wake of a strong earnings report. the company set is recovering

well from a massive august cyberattack. news returning to regular inventory levels. -- make deckers outdoor is also surging today after a strong quarter. colby handily beat the streets estimates and as a result, several wall street analysts, including wells fargo, are raising their price targets on the stock. but on the other side of the footwear industry is sketchers, which is seeing shares slide today after a mixed quarter. biggest drag on the stock is -- full year guidance for both profit and revenue. those shares, down 10%. scott? >> all right pivot, appreciate it very much. papacy. van dam x, rough ride for financials and 7% on the week. how top technician bdi gets jonathanwns do the charts. what risks is he seeing for that sector? coming up next.

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all right, we're back the major averages set to log in yet another week of games. thanks in no part to the banks. the regionals are on pace now for the worst week since june and our next guest, we'll, sees more downside risk for the financials from here. joining us now, jonathan cookie, chief market technician bt ig. good to see you again, welcome back. >> good to be here, scott. >> we're going to talk financials in a minute, but we've got some stuff to clear up here. now, there are multiple days i think in the last ten, for example, where you put out notes suggesting that the nasdaq and the mega caps were especially vulnerable and that they were big risk of going lower. here we are, we've done the mega cap earnings, that proved not to be the case. i'm curious as to how i should take that, if i'm investor today. >> yeah, well i think, you know, one of the indices we were talking about was the golden vip index, which is the 50 names that they game to be the most important hedge fund

clients. that recently got, you know, one of the most extreme over by ratings we've seen in the last decade. and previously, when that happens, sometimes it's imminent, but sometimes it can take a couple weeks. but in almost every instance, with the exception of, you know, mid december, 2019, which led to about a three-week rally before some turbulence with every instance, within the next few weeks, it gave back off those games and then some in southeastern connection. so, you know, i think today's action, idiosyncratic, certainly there was some very positive earnings news and some of those most important names, but i think ultimately, when you look across the landscape, you're starting to see, even within the next seven, you're starting to see some signs of breaking that correlation, right? we know that -- strength for tesla and apple peaked last summer. for alphabet, that beat last fall. and so, three of the max seven aides are actually acting or underperforming the s&p. so, it seems, you know, that

the four remaining names are, you know, almost invincible. i think as we get into the middle part of february, we are going to see some turbulence in some of those vip names. >> but i mean, the ones you mention, though, have under performed for fundamental reasons and nothing else. if anything, these stocks are proving to the market that they deserve to be rated where they are and have the price action that they've had, don't they? >> yet look, so those four remaining certainly have the momentum and relative strength. so, you know, meta and nvidia, microsoft and amazon certainly, you know, those are the clear leaders right now and, you know, even a pullback from this point certainly would not get them even back to where they were a few weeks ago. so, i think the issue here really is, you know, what else can we see rotation under the surface, you know, that's going to make up for the falling of those other three? you could argue those a few other names out there that are

trying to do that and maybe it's -- something like that, but i think when you look at the index holistically in some of the exhaustion signals we're seeing, you know, we just think as we get into the middle part of february, from that perspective, you have to be little careful. >> why are we picking on the financials today? what have you seen there that makes you a little nervous there? >> well look, you know, there's an old saying from -- fast moves and if you go back, you know, just four, five days ago, i think the regional banks are actually poised to break out to the upside. obviously, that did not happen. you had, you know, a name that maybe triggered it, and then here, you have regional banks down ten, 11% quite quickly. and typically with the financials like a lot of sectors, when you see weakness in the smaller cap names, which regional banks are, that tends to perceived weakness in the larger cats. we saw that almost exactly a year ago, so if you go back to a year ago, the regional banks started to show weakness in february.

the large cap financials continued to show some relative strength. actually didn't peak out until late february and that obviously, everything fell together. so, i don't think it's going to be as extreme, by any means. i just think when you have, you know, the large gap financials into over -- supply from their 2021 peak, they were up, you know, nine days in a row coming into this week. i think, you know, there are some risks for the downside, for the large gap financials a column for little the regionals. >> we need to be, i think, careful, the, whereas where you cite almost, you know, a year ago, s v b was out there, right? that was the mechanism, if you will. maybe this week, it's new york community bank, but idiosyncratic stories don't necessarily mean the imminent the buys of a group of stocks, especially if the market is thinking that the fed is going to cut interest rates and the

bond market has been voting for that, regardless of what chair powell suggests. >> yeah, look, we're not saying anything like march of 23 is in the cards, by any means. i think it's a function of, you know, risk, reward. you know, some decent, you saw regional banks down ten, 11% because the large gaps have four, five, 6% downside? i think that's probably, you know, reasonable. then i think the other thing is, where do you want, what is tactical? what is timely right now? we would say, you know, financials are not a timely by here. other areas that are much more timely, i think, if you look at industrials or even health care, which is their highest conviction idea for this year, health care is actually the third best sector, here today, and was the only sector in the first sector to hit a 52 week high yesterday. so, i think there's some subtle signs of leadership change. i just think financials probably are due for a pullback. either look to others like health care in the meantime. >> good to see you back,

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activist push to reshape mattel. -- on the earnings results moving the energy stocks today. mike, i'll begin with the. we had a nice, little move here to end this week. 49 to 57. meta? >> well, yes. meta -- >> tech? >> amazon, nvidia, of course. that's where the heft of the move is coming from. it's obviously not comprehensive, it's not all inclusive. but you know, you have 175 stocks making you 52 -- in the new york stock exchange today. it's more than three or four times as many new lows, so it shows you those participation. i think the market is able to take some comfort in a strong jobs number, even if we're not taking it clearly on face value, in terms of that magnitude of run rate of job creation. what i do think is, you had this whipsaw effect where the bond market didn't know it was supposed to be starting to discount a potential fed mistake by not cutting in large. doesn't seem like it's a fed mistake now. the question is, are we just going to be in this suspended animation period where it's like, either not hoping for the economy to weaken, but making

sure that inflation isn't restarting? so, so far, earnings have clicked positive on the quarter in, terms of year over year growth wait. that's the second straight quarter. everything else seems pretty tame. it's tough to find something specific and imminent to worry about, except, you know, and i was saying this for a couple weeks, 5000 on the s&p is where a lot of the trend lines lead us to and it should be kind of a stop and reassess moment. we will see if we get there. >> let's get this news, i want your reaction to it because this is just breaking. we do have some news on a face familiar to cnbc viewers, morgan stanley's mike wilson. a source confirms to me an internal memo went out today announcing wilson will be leaving the investment committee. he will be staying with the firm, i'm told, but it will be to work that with institutional clients. mike, of course, on many of our programs on this network over the last several years. join trying to navigate this markets with everybody else. >> yet, he's obviously been, you know, pretty conspicuous as somewhat fighting.

the overall trend at the s&p 500 index level, he's been very web into the earnings path last year. you know, we actually had a struggle in terms of broader earnings growth. i think it was a surprise to a lot of people was the way the index, itself, found a way higher in inappreciable way. so, i don't know what to make of this, in terms of whether it really is going to be a change of tone, in terms of strategic focus for the strategy piece of morgan stanley or not. you know, it creates this natural, like -- capitulating where the firms, the bears for capitulating. very much -- to say that and that's always a longer term process. you have seen some other strategists raise their s&p targets and essentially just try to mark their opinion to mark it. i don't know that we have a moment here where there really punishing people who have been cautious. >> you know, it's, like many, as i suggested, try to navigate and game out this new world of this fed rigid and thinking that, you know, i'm thinking of

past -- it was a fire and ice -- it was the price is wrong. these suggestions that the market should not be trading where it is, relative to what was still to come from these, you know, massive rate hikes that we had in a short period of time, and that ultimately, it would take a toll. and in fact, it hasn't happened. there is also probably the underestimation of what mega cap would mean for the overall market and the ability at the index level to carry stocks to these levels we are today. -- >> it enabled the market, at the aggregate level, at the index level, to hold a premium valuation through an entire aggressive fed tightening cycle and in earnings recession. now, multiple came down a little bit, but anybody who was, you know, thinking about the older relationships and the fact that, you know, we're trading at a premium and we should probably have a little more of a reset lower, you know, you kind of got left behind by the market. so, i don't think there's any particular shame in it.

no frameworks have worked perfectly during this cycle. it's been very odd. you know, normally you actually rally into the beginning of a fed tightening cycle. we didn't even do that. morgan just anticipated, got it done with the 25% decline, and then it was up and away for them. >> the most, i'm told, again, according to a source that lisa -- another name who is very familiar and a face that's familiar to this network, he was on as recently as last week on one of our programs. is going to assume that -- >> who's been cautious as well, so very similar, i think, -- so maybe it's not really a change necessarily in actual direction of advice. >> yeah, so we will continue to follow that story, which mike will, of course, in this new endeavor with morgan stanley. courtney reagan is following mattel activism. what's going on? >> yeah, so shares up around 5% today after activist cap -- sent a letter to mattel urging numerous changes. barrington, pushing them to explore options for its american girl, fisher price brent, separate the rows of ceo and chairman, pause stock based compensation. the data it calls excessive. also asking for two billion dollar stock buyback.

now, mattel tells cnbc in part, look, it looks forward to engaging with barrington, as you do with all of our shareholders. we welcome this initial outreach and we are reviewing the letter. the toymaker does reported fourth quarter and full year next week. , so we will get a little bit better idea of the direction of some of those brands and let's see if they say anything more. back, over to you. >> we appreciate that. thanks. looking at the market here, at see the dow at 150. s&p 500 still looking for that close and above 49.50. probably get that at this point with less than a minute to go here. 49 to 60. there are some bears, still, if we're hanging on to the story that cuts are coming as fast as you think, higher for longer is ultimately going to take a toll, mark it's too rich for where earnings truly are, outside of the very select few stalks. >> absolutely. if you think there is a good chance that the hot jobs number today was a real head fake and i mentioned earlier, one year ago, we got a half 1 million job print for the january number. [crowd chanting] it was no they were near that after. then at, you should worry about

the fed potentially waiting too long, not listening to the decline in hours worked, maybe some of the layoff. for now, i think we're a long distance from really getting to that point where -- >> all right, bell is ringing. [bell ringing] -- cnbc 500. let's call it 49 to 58, 49 to 60. that's where we're settling out today. this final day of a very busy week. i will see you next -- >> big tech, big games. the major averages finished higher on the day and for the week, we've got new records for the s&p, the dow, and the nasdaq. 100. that is the -- but the actions just getting started. welcome to closing bell: overtime. i'm morgan friend in with john fourth. >> yeah, meta getting communication services a huge boost, closing out more than four and a half percent on that sector. the social media giant, closing at a record after huge earnings beat, announcing its first