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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  February 5, 2024 5:00am-6:01am EST

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ke the boss with the new footlong cookie. this might be my favorite sidekick ever. what? every epic footlong deserves the perfect sidekick. it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." we begin with stocks coming off the best week since december after monster results from the biggest names in tech.
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however, futures are fighting for gains this morning. also, sticking to his outlook. fed chair jay powell doubles down the central bank will likely not cut rates at the march meeting. powell saying the economy is uniquely resilient. in the middle east, at least five u.s. led strikes on houthi rebels across the region. still the white house maintains it is trying to avoid a wider conflict. more trouble for boeing and the key partners for making a come ponent for jets. and eye on the burger chain that served 99 billion and counting. it's monday, february 5th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. hope you had a great weekend.
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let's get you ready to start the day with the u.s. stock futures. you can see red across the board. the dow off the lows of earlier today and now looking like it would open 8 the 55 points lowe. s&p and nasdaq down .25%. ahead of the open, dow and s&p and nasdaq are sitting close to all-time highs with the dow coming off the best week since december. a big part of that jump friday was the january jobs report and the blowout number suggesting that good news may be good news once again. big earnings from big tech driving the action. meta setting the record for the largest single day gain. more on that coming up later in the hour. we will check the bond market. the ten-year bond in a second. the two-year is moving sharply to the upside.
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we are looking at oil this morning. coming off the worst week since october. you see it is very close to flat in the pre-market. wti is down .25%. brent crude down fractionally. that's the set up. let's check on the top corporate stories with bertha coombs is here with more. bertha. >> good morning, frank. more problems for boeing and the 737 max. in a memo to staff, the head of bo boeing's commercial jet business, a worker at supplier spirit arrow aerosystems discov misdrilled holes in fuselages. this is not an immediate issue and all 737s can continue operating. work will have to be redone on 50 undelivered planes. boeing expects to know how long
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that work will take in the coming days. some tesla wboard members my have felt an expectation to take drugs with ceo elon musk for risk of upsetting him if they didn't. this article citing people familiar with the situation and detailing the deep personal and financial ties with the tesla directors and musk. reports say current an td forme board members have direct knowledge of his drug use. musk mocked that report on x saying no one has ever mentioned rehab ever to me. shares of japan's biggest property group hitting a record high today as elliott management takes aim at the company. the financial times reports elliott is calling for mitsui
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fu fu fudosan to launch a $7 billion buyback and sell down the stake in orient land which operates disneyland. frank, it seems the activists are all into the magic kingdom no matter where it is located. >> a lot of investor action so far this year and it is only february. bertha, we will see you later on. turning back to the markets. jay powell said the fed can be prudent when to cut interest rates. the fed chairman says the economy gives the fed more time to build confidence. >> we want to see more evidence that inflation is moving sustain br sustainably down to 2%. our confidence is rising. we want moreconfidence before we take that step of beginning to cut interest rates.
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>> important to note that interview was taped on thursday before the blowout of the job reports of 353,000 new jobs. those better numbers pushing down expectations for a march rate cut. traders are pricing in a 15% chance of a quarter-point cut. let's talk more about this with ben emons at newedge wealth. ben, great to have you here. >> good morning, frank. >> we heard from jay powell again. he seemed consistent. he said march cut is unlikely and we see the s&p and dow and nasdaq close at new highs. what does that tell you about the market? >> the market was very geared on the rate cuts. powell's confirming this is not going to get up so soon. it may happen some time this year. this is uncertainty for the markets. >> why are they finishing at highs? >> i think friday was about the
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economy. if you have a strong jobs number and it gives you the sense the economy is not in recession, that is supporting the stock market. the uncertainty of the rate cut is bringing trepidation this morning. >> when it comes to the economy, good news is now officially good news. let's go to the jobs report. you are looking at the real compensation number at 2%. why is the real compensation number important to you? >> the fed has done a good job so far bringing inflation down. the real incomes are going up. it is like a tax cut. this is supporting the market and the economy together. you see the strong job gains with people getting back into the labor force. it is a real good story. the fed has to keep going for some period with the higher rate to get the inflation to 2%. that was the message. >> you feel good about the economy. a different story with the financials. specifically the regional banks. there is risk in your mind that
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jumps off the page. jay powell addressed that on "60 minutes" last night. i want to play that for you. >> what is the likelihood of another real estate-led banking crisis? >> i don't think -- i don't think that's likely. we looked at larger banks balance sheets and it is a manageable problem. there are smaller and regional banks that have concentrated exposures in the areas that are challenged. we are working with them. >> powell went to say a few may have to close or merge. he is working with them. back to you. you say the risk is jumping off the page and you are looking at new york community bank. the commercial real estate with multifamilies which is part of the issue last week and also office. when i look at the community bank, they he have twice the multifamily exposure of peers. i thought it was the office. i thought office was the risk and multifamily was the safer
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bet. >> i think the issue with the community bank is the rent controlled properties. that is why the loans are falling in arrears. suddenly the market got a sense this is not an office issue alone, but other properties. this is the tension in the market about not getting out of the regional bank crisis yet. whether it is the office properties or rental control properties, it seems to be souring. this is what powell is looking at here and saying there will be banks in trouble. >> in your mind, it is all commercial real estate. this might be a bit of an out li outlier. >> i emphasize you are talking about specific banks so far. last year, we had silicon valley bank. this year is about the real economy. you get parts of the commercial real estate in arrears and that will start to build.
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it is a risk. >> ben emons, futures in the red. trepidation after jay powell rolled out the march cut. we have more to come on "worldwide exchange," and the one word investors have to know today. first, three days and five u.s.-led strikes across the middle east. we go live to one of the busiest ports in the region to see the impact the houthi tattacks ther. and the one stock that may live up to lofty expectations. a very busy hour sllti ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪)
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." looking at futures here and the dow would open almost 100 points lower. let's see how europe is shaping up. joumanna bercetche is in the london newsroom with more on the early action. joumanna, good morning. good morning, frank. i'll kickoff with the view of how asian markets have done. the hand over is not pretty from the chinese equities. at the end of the day, the shanghai composite was down 1%, it was down more. the shenzhen ended the day 3% lower. this is a reflection of how much these chinese indivisces hav fallen.
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the hang seng is down .10%. the green on the board is the nikkei in japan up .50%. for european indices, some are trading in the green. the ftse 100 is up .25%. we just had the final pmi numbers for the month of january coming higher than the flashes estimate. good news on the activity front especially because they are above the 50 mark with contraction over expansion. they are in expansionary territory. ftse mib is up 1% on the back of unicredit. it released strong results. stock up 10%. investors really cheering on the distribution plans. on the flip side, pspain is down .40% after the ft report over the weekend stating iran was using santandair.
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we have the german index trading on the flat line. the cac 40 in france is coming off five basis points. we see weakness in the auto space today. mixed bag in europe and that comes off the weaker session from the chinese equities. >> joumanna bercetche live in london. thank you. sticking with the action around the world and developing story as we turn to the ongoing tension in the middle east. the u.s. and uk striking 13 locations in yemen. the goal is to disrupt and degrading the abilities of the ira iranian-backed group in the red sea. the following attacks are said to be unrelated for the drone attack which killed three american soldiers. u.s. national security adviser jake sullivan said on "meet the press" said the
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relent. >> we will take additional action to respond when our people are killed or forces attacked. >> joining me now with the shipping traffic in the region is dan murphy from the busiest port in the middle east. dan. >> reporter: frank, good morning. we are here at the port in the middle east and one of the busiest ports in the world. this is where it is showing the full effect with longer delays and also seeing higher freight costs and higher consumer prices as well. this, of course, after we saw the u.s. and the uk firing back against the 30 attacks against commercial ships in the red sea since november. to give you an example, the cost of moving one of the 40-foot
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containers has spiked to $4,000 u.s. dollars. we have seen prices rise for the last eight weeks. this is just to move a container. if you need to move a more dangerous product, crude, diesel, petrol, prices have trit tri tripled. i have spoken to one who tells me prices are likely to rise until there is a resolution to the conflict. listen in. >> the rates are going up. we see that. it is nowhere near to where it was during the peak during covid. there is a higher cost. how that cost will find its way to the consumer we'll have to see. >> reporter: all eyes for who this means for the global economy as the ships reroute and move around the cape of good
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hope. frank, that adds to the details and insurance costs and fuel bill. >> you mentioned the rates going higher. dan, investors are watching and waiting to see where the conflict goes. is there a path to deescalation right now? >> reporter: that's the big question at the moment. of course, we have, at the moment, the u.s. saying it is not done with the retaliatory strikes following the death of the u.s. troops in jordan. at the same time, houthi rebels vow to continue to fight back and keep up their attacks in the red sea until israel offensive in dgaza ends. that is adding to the challenge in the region and for the biden administration with secretary of state antony blinken due in the region to find a pathway forward. frank. >> dan murphy, great to see you. thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," an eye on the consumer as we get set for big
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looking for 2.$2.82. same store sales are in focus on all markets, but particularly in the u.s. so overall, same store sales are increasing in the u.s. and 5.1% in the international operating markets. the weather impact on sales is key as well as the impact of the war in the middle east. the ceo warned that several markets in the middle east and outside the region are experiencing a meaningful business impact due to the war and associated misinformation that is impacting mcdonald's. how it plays out is of note. updates on the cosmics launch in illinois is interesting. high demand for the beverage and snacks spinoff that mcdonald's is testing. the mcdonald's stock is up fractionally so far this year. back to you. >> joining me now is bank of
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america's senior restaurant analyst. sara, good morning. >> good morning. >> the first time you came on was the last day of the grimace shake and today is the first day of the shamrock shake. >> we love our shakes. >> give us your expectation and rating and price target. >> we are expecting eps of -- same store sales of 4.5%. most of that is consistent across the globe. what we have said is that we think there will be some impact from the middle east on international markets just because there has been some news in the social media narrative. this is relatively small in terms of the financial impact on the middle east. as we have seen, there have been broader implications because of the geopolitical tension.
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we have eps of $2.81. we are neutral on the stock because we think given where we are in the economic cycle and the economic model that mcdonald's has, we don't expect to see a lot of eps upside. >> not expected a lot. i want to touch on another company and then talk about the broader space. chipotle is coming up later today. you have a recent note with chipotle and one factor is innovation. i have to ask what is innovation? carne asada or the drive-thru lanes? >> it is both. carne asada is a testament of how much consumers like that. some news is recurring. nothing that complicates the operating model. i think that is also a good segue to the chipotle lanes. people want access and convenience. what we have seen is if chipotle
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can maintain the speed and mcco consumers come more frequently. >> the price target is 2,700. you mentioned the economy and how it might impact mcdonald's over impacting chipotle. how does the economy impact the players? of course, everybody has to eat and these are lower priced options on food. >> that is true. we have seen the watch word for consumers is resilient. both of the companies have benefitted from trading down. mcdonald's with the benefit of lower price points versus some other fast casuals. chipotle benefits from trading down from full service restaurants. the fact is we see continued spending. you don't need the safety of mcdonald's. >> one other factor impacting
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the quick service restaurant space in california is the food prices which are expected to rise this spring in response to the $20 per hour minimum wage law. what does that mean in california? how important is california to sector? will we see similar trends in other parts of the councountry? >> california is a big part of most restaurants. it is 15% of the surveys for chipotle. what we see across the board is increase of prices to cover the increase in wages. every restaurant has said as much. they will try to minimize the impact on consumers, but labor is a big issue to take prices up. >> sarah, mcdonald's and chipotle and yum reporting. thank you. coming up, the top trending stories and how taylor swift just made history at the grammys.
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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area. there is a lot ahead on "worldwide exchange." powell not pivoting. he is focused on the fight against inflation. markets continuing to find new highs thanks to the strong
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results from the tech sector. we layout if the magnificent seven can keep up its high flying act. a monster storm slamming california. in the path of destruction and potential billions of damage. it is monday, february be 5th, 2024. are you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. well mcccome back. i'm frank holland. we pick up the half hour check on the u.s. stock futures. futures in the red across the board. we are looking at the dow off the lows of early this morning. it looks to open 70 points lower. stocks on friday made a big jump on the back of the better than expected jobs report. dow, s&p and nasdaq, all three,
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hitting fresh all-time highs. dow up 1%. this morning, we are looking at the bond market. upside action on the bond market. benchmark at 4.08 yield. two-year note on the upside. we are also looking at oil. coming off the worst week since october. this morning, it looks like the downward trend continues. wti is down .50%. brent crude is fractionally lower. that's the set up. let's check on the corporate stories with bertha coombs. bertha. >> good morning, frank. jay powell reiterating his call that central bank rate cuts will likely not be happening in march. in the interview on "60 minutes," last night, powell said the fed is on track to cut three times this year and pushed whether it had been too slow to
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recognize inflation. >> in hindsight, it would have been better to have tightened policy earlier. we thought the economy was so dynamic it would fix itself quickly. we thought that inflation would go away quickly without intervention. in the fourth quarter of 2021, it was clear inflation was not transitory in the sense i mentioned. the senate releasing details of the $118 billion bipartisan plan for israel, ukraine and border security. senate majority leader chuck schumer says the vote is scheduled for wednesday and president biden signalled support for the measure. if approved, it will still need to go to the house where it faces challenges from republican members. four vegas hotel and casinos reach a deal.
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the deal with the culinary workers union and four queens and main street covers over 1,000 workers. the restaurants near the strip have not reached agreement with the union. folks are watching that until the last minute. >> that could be disruptive to what i think is a really good super bowl. 49ers and chiefs. bertha coombs, thank you. turning back to the markets and earnings after big tech's big week and what is shaping up to be another milestone making day for the sector. meta platforms turned 20 over the weekend and the stock having a monster game on friday after the best sales growth in two years issuing the first dividend and boost stock buyback to 50 billion dollars. investors added to the market cap by the close on friday which
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is the largest single gain for a single stock in one single day. you see the chart right there. then microsoft is coming off a whipsaw week after the earnings report that topped estimates for the quarter, but came in light with guidance. slight soaring by investors doing very little to dent what is a very impressive run for the stock since ceo satya nadella took the helm this week ten years ago. he has seen the company jump from $300 billion to $3 trillion today. we have our next guest with us. sophie, great to have you here. >> good morning. >> a lot to talk about. let's start with microsoft. microsoft having a huge run since satya nadella took off, but launching azure openai. they have 53,000 customers. half of the fortune 500 and big
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names like coca-cola and then walmart. what does that tell you about the cloud computing race and the battle between google and microsoft and amazon? >> one of the first things that jumps out to me when we talk about this side of things is the revenue is reliable. not only because of the nature of the service provided with the high barriers to entry and getting this technology off the ground means there are few companies with a seat at this table and you are on to a winner. the caliber of customer as you stated there tells me this revenue is sticky. in terms of more direct competitors, it is a lot of this and more of the microsoft versus amazon race for this particular corner of the market. we know that regulators have been looking into the accusations of monopoly. at the moment, market dominance.
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>> it seems so when you see half of the fortune 500 and walmart and coca-cola. i want to come over to meta. meta turned 20. it can almost go to the bar and drink now. how meaningful is it with the first dividend? >> absolutely. in terms of the scope of the reaction to this, there are a couple of reasons. one is the creiticisms is they have these billions and billions on the balance sheets. you could put that to better use and one way is pay investors for patience. when you look at meta who is the victim of criticism in recent years in terms of slight lack of clarity with strategy and they were punished for that. investors are very happy they are getting rewarded for patience. it does change slightly the category of the stock.
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you can start saying this has income potential. looking more broadly, it is very much a growth name. this development was very much liked by the market which is an unders understatement. >> investors were very happy about the dividend and share buyback. lastly, tim cook says apple is spending effort on generative a.i. and saying something is coming. what does it mean for the company overall and the stock price between now and whenever this announcement happens? >> sure. apple has a more difficult task when it comes to capitalizing on a.i. the hardware space is different to the technology drivers behind it. now, apple really has strategy around this which is woolly. that is not clear cut. the price share will be in a holding pattern from now until
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we get clarity. we know the new headset is doing well. that is not enough to change the dial just yet. there is a lot of growth as we know which has been less spectacular if you look at 1% or 2% which is grorounds away frome other peers. >> your word is woolly. i would say mysterious. the mystery around apple is not good for the stock? how often does tim cook come out to say anything? a lot of people think it will happen in june at the worldwide developers conference. >> you know, i don't want to be unnecessarily negative. i'm a big fan of hardened proof and fund mafundamentals. until you can see what this is,
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this is a question which is not answered for me. it is exciting. it is not guaranteed yet. >> one question you can answer. what is your top pick with the magnificent seven? >> oh, that's tough. i have to say i am impressed by meta's turn around and focus on the core business. that has taken me by price. >> sophie lund-yates, thank you. coming up on "closing bellbell, will have jon fortt speaking with satya nadella. and turning attention to the storm system hammering california. up to 37 million people are at risk of life threatening e flooding. governor newsom stating a
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emergency ahead of the state. we have contessa brewer with more. >> reporter: frank, we learned los angeles got 4 inches of rain yesterday which was, by far, the rainiest february 4th in hi history. it makes it a tie for the tenth wettest day in los angeles. to understand the economic impact, it is helpful to look back at the insurance im implications we saw last year. for instance we -- sorry -- we know california set records for rain and snowfall, but we know it set the record last year. the water in california is measured october to september for meteorology reasons. it was 141% above normal. the snow back was the highest in 40 years. l.a. and santa barbara and san
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bernardino saw widespread damage. atmospheric rivers caused $1.1 billion yearly in flood damage. on average, that is according to a 2022 study in the journal which reports. what was the insurers exposure? wind and downed trees and those with comprehensive insurance on autos with flooded cars which c come back to the insurers. all at a time to have the capacity to raise rates in california and seeing some give on the regulations. the california insurance department says fewer than 2% of californians carry flood insurance on their homes. in high flood risk areas, only half of homeowners carry
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coverage according to fema. in early january last year, moody's estimated the economic damage was $5 billion to $7 billion. the insured losses are $1 billion. for the insurers, that was manageable. for the homeowners? not so much. insurers saw a bigger impact by the fire season. by the end of october, 317,000 acres burned in california. that is because on average for the previous five years, annually was 1.5 million acres burned, frank. >> 37 million people in the path of the storm and possibly life threatening storm. contessa, california, like florida, has been a tough place for profit insurance with rates soaring. what is the situation when it comes to the rates? >> reporter: the auto insurance
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situation, as i said, have been gr granted the first rate increase in a long time. people have seen the rates sky rocket. if you look at rising rates, you may opt to forego comprehensive coverage. if your car gets flooded, you may not have coverage. you may have more people in california when they try to balance out the rising rates of insurance with the damage and this is a problem. the other thing is we have seen all of these people go to the public market for insurance, this is the insurer of last resort in california, backed by state funds. that insurance has gone up by double digits in the last year, frank. >> contessa brewer, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," more potential problems for boeing and reported production issues. first, the top trending stories. if groundhog's day was not proof
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enough, mcdonald's has the shamrock shake returns today. move over vegas, new jersey may be the sports worlds next big thing. metlife stadium will host the 2026 world cup final. it is set to be the largest in history. spanning 16 venues across north ame america. taylor swift accepting her grammy win in style. the first singer to win album of the year and announcing her new album during her speech. it is due out on april 19th. more "worldwide exchange" coming up after this. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing,
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the turmoil has created an attractive turning point. goldman sachs upgrading nvidia to $800 a share. goldman says this is an attractive risk/reward profile. it is time for the global briefing. foxconn is expected to be better this year, but warning of the a.i. chip shortage. offering a conservative and neutral outlook for 2024. a south korean court acquitting the chairman. prosecutors were seeking a five-year sense alleging is to be price manipulation. and service activity in kmi china growing at a slower rate in january. this following the stocks
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falling to a five-year low in january. and as we head to break, here is sharon epperson with the growing impact of the black community in the c-suite. >> there's notable names of black ceos in the fortune 500. including tiaa chief and marvin ellison at lowe's and science application corporation in october. they are among the eight ceos in the fortune 500 who are bloack. that is less than 2% of the list. still, it is a record number. i'm sharon epperson.
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welcome back. time for the "wex wrap-up." we start with boeing working with the 737 max 9 jets with misdrilled holes on fuse acknowfuselages. the wall street journal reporting that several tesla board members were encouraged to take drugs with musk. and shares of the property
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developer in china is launching a stock buyback program with elliott. unicredit shares are po popping overseas. earnings set to be a key driver for the market action this week. investors reviewing the comments from jay powell. let's bring in rebecca patterson. great to have you here. >> good morning, frank. >> looking at the action in the pre-market, we see the futures deeply in the red. that is after the markets closed at new record highs after the jobs report. is this a reaction to jay powell? >> possibly. hard to say with one morning's readings. powell in the interview on "60 minutes" reiterated the higher for longer.
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march is unlikely. you see that in fed funds futures. after the fmoc and powell pushed the probability of the first cut to june now where a week ago there were decent odds of march. higher for longer is going to be a headwind for equities. the other side of it is what's spending with the consumer holding up. >> with all that in mind and we are coming off that jay powell comment on "60 minutes." what is your word? >> my word today is connections. that is especially important for investors to be making those connections between the catalysts and market players and economies and markets. whether we are talking higher for longer or the middle east challenges with the market and economic, you have to connect the dots. that's what leads me to be
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cautious on smaller and regional banks in the united states. higher for longer regulations and exposure to office and commercial real estate are going to make a rebound for that sector less likely short term. we have $117 billion in office commercial real estate which has to be retired or refinanced. >> you mention some of the regional banks. jay powell said he is working with the regional banks. he said some may have to close or some may have to merge. we continue to look at earnings. we saw strong results from mega cap tech. going forward, does that continue to justify the valuations? i know you are not as granular saying put money here day-to-day. longer term, do you continue to be bullish on mega cap tech? >> i am bullish on long-term mega cap tech. they have advantages where technology will play a role in the day-to-day lives across
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industries. do you want to buy a beunch her? probably not. when you see the pull backs, those are the opportunities if you don't have the exposure to build over time. i think these are stocks to help the dollar higher over the coming decade. that's a really long-term view. that's the power of technologies in the current environment. >> rebecca, thank you for your time. great to have you here on the show. before we let you go, one more look at futures this morning. futures are in the red across the board. however, you look at the dow and it is off the lows of earlier today. it looks like it would now open at 65 points lower. we will continue to watch the futures throughout the day here on cnbc. thank you for watching "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next. have a great day.
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good morning. the united states launching retaliatory strikes against iran-backed militants. we take you live to iran with the latest.
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the senate revealing a bipartisan aid deal for ukraine and israel. and boeing shares are falling after the company revealed a quality issue on some 737 max planes that could delay additional deliveries. it is monday, february 5th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. happy monday morning. let's look at what is happening with the equities at this hour. you will see red arrows. dow future

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