scores help predict first year coach performance is even better than high school grades to. so sorry, you are back to filling in the bubbles. >> there, go back to the future. by the way, tune in tonight, he said, there we go, last call, kyle bass, many more will talk about china slow rolling collapse. >> see, then closing bell starts right now. thank so much, welcome to closing bell. i'm scott walker, live from post 9 here at this make-or- break hour starting with stocks amid pressure with questions about the durability of this rally. we'll ask our experts over this final stretch of the surge as once again to top heavy, in the meantime, your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation looks like that. been a bit of a turnaround for the nasdaq, and the s&p. threaten to go positive here. dad's been under pressure, most of the, day that's really been on weakness from mcdonald's and boeing. russell getting ripped a bit today on a big jump in yields. following more hot economic data this morning. also perhaps the fallout from

-- comments on 60 minutes about a push past march for that first rate cut. does take us to our top of the tape. where is once again, the rise in stocks is too narrow, the so-called foundation of this market is starting to show some cracks. could be in bigger trouble if the mayor kept names start to filter. my name for us in focus today, apple. that stock has under performed the others in the group, over concerns over at sales growth among other issues. nice move today though, there it is, up one and a half percent, almost one 90. let's welcome in morgan stanley 's -- he covers that name for that from. he's here for his first interview post earnings. welcome back, good to see. >> thank you, scott thanks for having me. >> nice move today, nice reversal to. what's your overall read on earnings, since it's your first chance to tell us? >> let's go with the good in the bad. the good was december quarter, record services growth, record install base, records been per user on the services side. 60% operating income growth,

26% cash flow growth, better than expected earnings, good december quarter. the bad, the guy down. they got it about three billion dollars below where we thought they would guide revenue for the march quarter. >> three billion dollars? >> three billion dollars. >> not an insignificant dollar. >> 90 billion dollars, not in a significant number. , the challenge there is it's a product issue. really, we think it's mostly a china issue. there's a challenge with demand in that market, it's a macro challenge, it's a competition problem. we think apple has to solve that, but outside of that, i thought it was a good quarter. >> why do you think the stock market is giving apple the benefit of the doubt that they're going to figured out? i got, down as you, said not an insignificant number. clearly a china problem. so eyes this stop acting the way it is? >> i think we need to go back to late eighth 2018, early 2019, the first time apple negatively pronounced in over 15 years, at the time the challenge was weaker demand in china, china micro problems, some pressing

challenges in china. then it ended up being one of the best buying opportunities for appeal investors. that's when replacement cycles, peaked, and obviously accelerated from there. we think the setup feels very similar today as it did back then. >> we're gonna figure out the china problem. let's refresh our viewers memories to, in that we are talking about a sizable piece. what is it, 20%? 15%? >> 20. percent second biggest market. >> how long is it going to take to figured out? >> it's been about four quarters now of year over year declines in china. again, mixed results, let's call them. again, we think part of it is macro, given the china economy is going through some challenges. but now, huawei is a competitor again for the first time in four years. we think that's more of a temporary dynamic. apple took berkshire from huawei over the last four years, when huawei went away. it's only natural for them to be more competitive when they come back, but still, they have trailing edge technology, apple is pushing forward into a high. we think that will give them advantage over the longer term,

but we need to get past this nearer term share schiff dynamic before we can get there. >> you've had a pretty thoughtful coverage period in the conversations that we've had about this stop, very frank at times, as to maybe not wanting to buy the stop at certain levels. which aren't that long ago. today you say are buying the dip, your main overweight, to 20, the stock looks like it was technically challenged for a while, charles looked awful, you sat here and said you might not even buy it here. maybe it was one 69, one 67, somewhere around there? what's changed? >> two things, we talked about it maybe towards the end of the, or the google pack risk, the google doj risk, to me, has been pushed out of. it still a risk, to be cognizant of, but not a near term event or negative catalyst to be wary of. the second factor is we now have a better idea, we think we have a better idea of what apple's ambitions are come the developer conference in june. then the iphone 16 launch in september. we think, and tim cook alluded to this, they will introduce a.i.

into their phone, generative a.i., for the first time. we think that matters a lot. it creates the ability to use your phone in a whole new way, and perhaps your old phone can't give you that same experience as these new devices might. that becomes very positive for the iphone replacement cycle. >> you think that's going to happen at w w d c? that will be the teaser for it? >> that will be the teaser for. it ultimately, i think what they're gonna do at the developer conference is introduced the idea of what they are going to bring to ios 18, they'll also give an opportunity to build out the ar, vr ecosystem, from the vision pro that just launched. ultimately we think it's gonna be one of the more important developer conferences we've seen in a number of years. >> in terms of generative a.i. and the expectations you have in there, obviously have by virtue of what you just said, what leads you to believe that they are playing into a, that is going to be more profound, let's, say than what microsoft is doing with openai? what others are doing with anthropic? what's going to be the difference maker for alphabet -- i, mean for apple. that's as we really need to be

excited about this company's foray into a.i.. it was worth the wait. >> we've seen, maybe what i would say, for microsoft, microsoft is addressing more of the enterprise opportunity, and they are doing a great job at, it obviously, clearly early results are very solid for them. for apple, this is going to be a consumer opportunity. we look to what samsung has done already with the galaxy as 24, leveraging google's technology really positive response to that phone, we're seeing an increase in builds there. when we think about apple, we think of one of the most innovative american companies in the world. i guess my answer is why would i bet against apple? any market they've come into, not only have they succeeded, they've taken the majority of profits. apple is very typically secretive ahead of a big product launch. i thought it was very notable that tim cook even alluded to introductory -- introducing a i later this year on the earnings call. it's usually not a forum that he would do so, but he did. so i think that means there's some power in the real emphasis behind this. >> what happens, i'm thinking about china again to do, if the

goalposts, so to speak, have moved in china for a variety of reasons? regulatory, governmental, et cetera, some of the issues that had existed around that company over the past 18 to 24 months. what if the goalposts don't come back? there is that report that shipments are going to be down -- could be down 15%? from a very influential analyst, i know i'm sure you follow that person's work. what do i make of? that >> actually have iphone shipments in china, in fiscal 24 down 28% year over year this year. i'm taking a very hard nosed look at china, saying this is a child to market, for market reasons. i think something that goes understated with apple is the non-chinese emerging markets. apple, maybe in the last three or four earnings periods, has consistently brought up india, indonesia, mexico, brazil. we think these markets, as they continue to grow, and china shrinks, they become more influential to the overall growth story. don't get me wrong, china remains important. apple needs to continue to work to regain that share that they might be

losing this year, but i do think that these non china emerging markets are becoming more influential. >> you're almost suggesting that whatever gap is left from whatever drop off in china remains for it, if worst-case scenario remains for an extended period of time, it will be lifted up, that the slack will be picked up by the india's of the world. is that fair? >> i'm also not saying china's going away, what i'm saying is we have to think back to 2018. apple and huawei did coexist at the same time. huawei was doing eight times the amount of shipments that they are doing today. again, it's natural for huawei, when they're coming back, especially at the high-end, to try to take some shear from apple. they're the only two major competitors at the high-end in china. we just think that's more of a temporary share date to get back to where things might have used o be, but ultimately, huawei can actually grow the pie in china. china's been a market that's been weak for seven years. if the china market can actually grow, you can see apple and huawei growing at the same time. where sure shift dynamics don't matter as much. >> is it possible to think that

if the a.i. entry for apple is so revolutionary, as you say, with generative a.i., that it causes this renewed upgrade cycle that has been somewhat stagnant, maybe partially pandemic related? that that is the spark? for a quicker upgrade cycle. >> that is the spark, in our eyes. we have in fiscal 25, we have an acceleration of replayed in cycles, only slightly, but an acceleration, which ultimately drives growth an iphone units, drives growth in iphone u.s. piece, it's similar to the introduction of 5g where you have to return over the install base to devices that can now power this new technology, just like 5g did back in 2020. >> okay, what about vision pro? big splash-y spread in vanity fair, tim cook's moon shot. is it -- look, some shots are just that. they may not pan out the way that we think they're going to be, or be as revolutionary from a monetary standpoint, fiscally,

for the company. how do you view that? how do you model it into what your future projections are going to be? >> in the near term is just based off supply. we know it's a very controlled launch. we have roughly 350,000 units shipped in fiscal year 20. for that will represent 30 basis points of total revenue. it's a rounding error, so to speak, in the near term, to me, what's important are these cases. we've seen disney+ come out, we've seen max, we've seen some sports partnerships that apple has with the vision pro, but can that app ecosystem build if that's gonna be the answer as to whether this becomes a four billion business, eight billion business, or 40 billion dollar business. >> i gotta, let's broaden the conversation and bring in cnbc contributor, bryn talkington, of capital management. brynn, good to see you, thanks for being here? >> yeah, thank you. >> you do own apple, i don't know how large you are in the name, that seems like this story has really turned a positive page since some of those concerns around the stock

price, and then immediately after earnings. >> definitely immediately after earnings. it almost bounced off the 200- day, and so a little bit of the problem technically is it continues to make lower highs, it's in this tight channel. but i think two, what you guys were talking about, to me, you have to think through, china is the second largest economy in the world. incredibly important. and where i would think through the 2018 narrative, is you have to think that, go back then, hong kong was free, not under ccp, xi jinping was not president for life. and this channeling your inner mao. i think this fundamental shift downwards, and any operator in china i think is just going to be structurally lower for the intermediate term. so i think apple is going to continue to be a market performer, here's why this is exciting. i just want you to know there's just as much trust and just as much loyalty, look at all the loyalty numbers that apple out

of the 2.2 billion dollar install base, i think the market will continue to give the benefit of the doubt, but it will be like a market performer this year, as it is in a transition, i think it's in a transition for your for apple >> and incredible thing, eric, is that it's probably the most powerful installed base in the history of any consumer product . certainly one of the most powerful installed bases in the history of stock ownership. it's really hard to break people out of this name. apple and it's stop at your peril, i think what we're learning is that. >> it's very fair, 2.2 billion active devices over 1.3 billion iphones, if you think about just how many apple devices you own on your person, let alone your corporate iphone, maybe, then you think about how that has grown over time. it's really incredible to think about. i'm an apple consumer, as i am an apple and a list. that's because i love the product. >> so you've been around the apple universe at morgan stanley for years, before you are covering it alone, just

like you are, at least in the forefront, like you are now, so the evaluation is taking a time travel with you over your period. how do you justify the valuation where it is now relative to where was? not that long ago either. >> we've gone through a few business model evolutions. in 2018 it is thinking of apple as a consumer, cyclical hardware business, to a platform. i think something that brynn mentioned that's very important is this churning loyalty, as long as this churn in narrative remains intact, which is very much does, you are not turning away from the platform. you're just not maybe upgrading next year, that's the longest shun of replacement cycles, as long as you're still keeping your iphone, historically, you spend more overtime. that's very powerful for the apple model. another way of framing it is in the last 12 months, apple is added 120 billion new users to now spend on the platform. excuse me, 120 million. that's a lot of people that can spend on the platform. that's billions of dollars. it becomes important, supports the multiple overtime.

>> so this, brandon, is one of those conversations that we've had around all of these companies. you own nvidia, you've been having this argument with people, the valuation has actually come down over time. how do you address this with apple? >> well, you can look at apple like a consumer staple. also, look at apple like a costco. like a visa, there's certain companies, because of the durability and consistency, they're just going to have a higher multiple. i do think after covid, that market multiple of apple will stay high, because of that durability of earnings. i think though, as regards to a.i., we are so early in this, so i don't think any of us can really understand the implications long term, but i think the vision, just delights us to say, hey, this company is still innovating. we are going to continue to be a shareholder long term, because we know tim cook and t

are innovating. what about the idea that we've started this program before we bought erik in. the narrowness in the market, more concerns, we keep hearing about it, they're cropping up yet again, that suggests, i think it was barren, saying that the foundation of the market is starting to show cracks. if you get any falter from these companies, then you're in some bigger trouble. >> doesn't seem like we're going to get faults out of these companies, you go back and look at the reports that microsoft, meta, even apple and amazon, we have nvidia in a few weeks, i think it's important, there's that adage, and outages are true, markets are weakest one narrow and strongest when most broad. what i've seen this year, look at like our, down 15% this year. coinbase down 35%. you've seen some of these stalks that have had huge 2023 numbers, really breaking down in just the first month of the year. so i'm keeping my eye on that,

because that's just going to say, was that just tourist capital? >> they want to happen to do anything with this pile of cash that they have, brynn, as a shareholder, or just let tim cook and the team they're just do with it what they please? continue to buyback about lot of stock, they do more than any in terms of buybacks, i believe. how about that? >> you absolutely want them to spend that on our entity, they're also might able to monetize. who knows how much they spent on vision pro, who knows what other types of our entity, you definitely want to see a growth company, plowing back some of that money, not in buying that the shares and gaining the earnings per share, but actually plowing back and innovating. we all talk about apples high cash flow, but it's free clash flow yield releasing very high because it's got a three billion-dollar market cap. i think it's only around two or

3% free cash flow yield. it's a big number but you need that to go part in the company. otherwise you start questioning where they are innovating. >> how do you feel about cash? >> i think brynn was right. something that we look at it morgan stanley was typically companies that return more cash to shareholders, even through dividends or buybacks, outperform their peers. when that out performance is supercharged, it's when they're also reinvesting that capital to drive for their growth to generate more cash flow and create that virtuous cycle. they will continue to buy back 80 billion dollars of stock a year, but i'm totally on board with reinvesting that capitals growth. they need to keep doing that. >> are these new technologies like a.i. and whatever comes next month or supplements that, the reason why they don't do any big deals? because they wait for moments like this to plow the cash into that next frontier whenever that may be for their business? >> now, i think ample, this has always been apples m.o. when it comes to m&a, the biggest deal they've done was beats electronics almost a decade ago. that was three or four billion a dollars. they've created their own tv business, thrown milieu v

business, they've created their own ar vr product. this is apples ammo, they buy early stage companies, take the talent, take the engineering, products, weave them in, fell product gaps, then put the apple special sauce in them to create what we love and know today. >> i'm trying to think of other things that have been mentioned throughout the years. car, sports rights, health, where does this all go? >> i'll touch on car very briefly. simply because car is a tough one, there's a lot of competition in the market, there's already established brands. i love and know what apple does, but that's years away. my view on car is really they have the car ply software, leverage that to make an entrance into the auto market a little broader than what they are today. cars just a very hard sell today. we know that they are going -- we know they're in health, apple watch is obviously the key tool for that today. obviously, the goal is to broaden that overtime, but it's a very long tailed growth opportunity. that won't be solved in a day. >> the last thing that an

instance you mentioned, the watch in, their regulatory issues around that. what about broader regulatory scrutiny of this company by justice? which has been reported about at least taking a look. are you worried about that at all? >> i do think regulation is someone stymie the innovation that apple is coming and trying to come to market with. we've heard for a few years that the doj plans to bring some form of enforcement or some form of case against apple . we've heard that for a few years. it's not that i wouldn't expected this year, i would, we've seen it globally, but ultimately, that takes a lot of time and takes a lot of different turns over that period of time. to me, it's not a near term risk, but it's always something to be very cognizant of of as an apple -- >> thanks, erik woodring here joining us on apple. one -- from talking to, in let's head to get the stevens for the biggest names moving in the market. >> hey, scott catalan is harder as -- novo nordisk's parent

company says it will by the parent -- in a deal worth 11 and a half billion dollars excluding debt. novo nordisk will then buy three of the companies sites from its parent to boost manufacturing capacity, for its blockbuster weight loss drug wegovy, in dallas, we're in pharma, more forces is surging as reports that novartis is in talks to buy the cancer treatment company. the report doesn't include a potential price, but more forces currently has market cap of roughly two billion dollars. shares are having their best day ever, up some 58%, as numbers trades along the flat line. >> it, but we'll be back to shortly. pippa stevens, thank you. we're just getting started here on closing bell. up next, giving out the fed, jpmorgan asset management, gabriela santos is with us. mapping out her rate cut forecast and of course the playbook to. we are live from the new york stock exchange, you are watching closing bell on cnbc. ♪♪ whoo!

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>> welcome back, the major averages pairing back earlier losses today after stronger than expected economic data cast more doubt around the timing of federate cuts, so should investors reset their own expectations? fine-tune their portfolios to match. let's ask gabriela santos of jpmorgan as it management. let's to see you again. >> nice to see. you >> chappelle said march is probably not happening, now the probability went way down, we're gaming out when it's really going to happen, what matters most, do you think, for this market? -- >> i think the general message we got in december is what happens, most were passed the rate hikes, and we're now thinking about when we start going down the other side of the mountain for rate cuts. that truly is a better environment for both stocks and credit. i think especially because of the rate cuts versus an actual

concern from the economic growth standpoint. i think what we're doing now is fine-tuning and we think it's more of a middle of the are occurrence in the fed will start very gradually cutting rates -- >> what i hear you saying is that cuts are coming, but that's the only thing that really matters, doesn't matter when and how much, the fact of the matter is that the trend has changed. >> i think the market overall, that's correct, but there are certain pockets of market for which this actually does matter, the actual timing of when we get interest rates to normalize once again, and then that's why we do think it's too early for things like small caps as well as regional banks, which are interrelated, small caps just because 40% of that debt is floating rate, half of it matures before 2030, and a lot

of it is made up of financials and specific goal regional banks which as we got reminded last week are still under some pressure from the credit size, as well as the margin size. >> as well as normally we would say the market anticipates 6 to 9 months in advance, so maybe you have positioning in advance of that. what you're suggesting is this maybe one of the occasions where those spaces of the market don't get rewarded until the fed actually cuts, is that fair? >> even perhaps more further along. >> further along in the cut. >> and in the economic cycle. what we normally see for things that are very economically sensitive is they do tend to bottom before the economy does. but it's when you are already towards the bottom and i can on excite coal and about to reaccelerate. we'll get to it, essentially there will be a recession, a recovery, right now we're still

late cycle, we're not quite at that moment yet. moore still looking for later on the moment to be truly much more optimistic about small caps and financials. >> there was an interesting note off the training desk, with jpmorgan today. essentially, a mea culpa, which they use those words, and they said the cautious call we held since the second half of january has proven overly conservative. are you more positive on the market today than you've been in many months? >> i think what was encouraging was the delivery on the earnings front from some of the magnificent 7. >> most. >> some, most, not all. >> that's true. >> that's still a key message here. >> in some respects we're talking about the magnificent six at this point, >> or five, or four, or new sevens. >> i think that's an evolving discussion. if you look at n equal weight index, still flat for the year, small cap as we were discussing, actually down for the, air i think if there is a

reason to be more optimistic, versus what you are expecting, it was much more on the delivery of the mag 7. that's in the short term, i think we stretch out the horizon further the next few months, next few quarters, we think much more of the optimism, enthusiasm, should be in other sectors. two earnings recovery, i don't think that's fully appreciated by the market quite yet. >> it's the narrowness of the market of a great concern to you or not? >> it's not a great concern if you don't think that you are actually going to get substantial disagreement from the majority of the magnificent 7. instead of just one or two, then you would see the whole index being pulled downwards. what we ultimately think is they will deliver, pretty good, still, earnings growth for this year is 20%, but instead, if you're looking for a reason to actually expect more of a return at the index level, then it's really about where the delta is moving the other way, from earnings recessions earnings recovery. >> i don't need to bring up

things that are happening with respect to jpmorgan today, but marco -- is this where the action is right now? there's a new node out from marco clinic, i know you know who he is, obviously. the risk of the disappointment on both sides of a goldilocks narrative still exist. are we taking for granted all of this other stuff? have we just decided that everything is just going to remain great, that's going to cut, inflations grant continue to flinch, economies come to remain strong and everything is going to be hunky dory? remember jamie dimon not that long ago? let's not pretend everything is hunky dory. >> i think that's where last year we were talking about everything, such broad brushstrokes about the economy, about rates, hard landing, soft landing, rates, up rates down. this year, i think it's much more about actually using a fine brush and defining exactly what we mean by these things. expect in 2024 2% economy, no inflation, 2% inflation, 4% unemployment. you could say it's a soft landing, but obviously i think it's time to retire the plane

metaphors. it misses the nuance that that is still not a perfect landing. there are pockets of the economy that are top down to and are actually decelerating from here. especially around the services sector. still prospects of credits dress, regional banks, commercial real estate. it's not a perfect landing, and actually, the plane never lands. really coolly, the economy is always on the verge of some kind of end of cycle. >> some say no landing means we just keep roaring along, to which you ask the question, is too good become that? because it doesn't enable inflation to come down enough? or it just makes it sticky with the possibility of going back up. now, people like -- say, well, i'm thinking about that, but i think the answer is no. are you worried about that it all? >> we think no, actually, we're less concerned about the inflation side of this. with no landing being very strong growth, inflation never

normalizing. actually we've got a lot of good information on inflation for the last six months -- signal inch this, we just need to keep going in this direction. actually the good data we received last week on two fronts, the first is an improvement in productivity, and hence, unit labor costs are actually coming down. now, below 2%, that's not inflationary, it was six and a half percent a year ago. so, much better news in terms of that inflationary pressure. you can have good jobs without that inflation pressure, and then on the other side, we also got the news that about 80% of inflation pressure right now is really just sheltered autos. as you get the delayed impact in those, we have a much more conviction conduct to 2% of pc and cpi by the end of the year. >> appreciate you being here again, thanks. galas santos joining us today. searching for strength, starts under pressure as we head towards closing. koreans amy calling is breaking out her market playbook where she's finding some opportunity here. that's after the break.

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we are back, we are in the red today across the board. modest losses for the s&p and the nasdaq, dow still down about one half of 1%, the s&p retreating from last week's record high, powered by big tech earnings. my next guest says, we need to see market breadth beyond big tech to sustain the rally, betting on gross stock to form in the lower interest rate environment. joining me now, is amy kong, welcome back. >> hello, scott. >> just talk heavy market, is that okay? with what is working? >> you know, the expectations for some of these tech companies i reported last week have obviously gone much higher, they have been highest since the end of the year. i think given what we have seen, the consensus expectations have moved even higher. that is a concern of mine. i think there is less and less room for error.

i think that is a risk, we all need to be mindful of it going into the back half, although the earnings were good, to be fair. >> what do we do then? because the broad thing hasn't happened, every time there is a little one step forward of the broadening, it takes two steps back, and the russell sells off a lot, we are back to the same top heavy conversation, what changes it? >> you are absolutely right. not only are the expectations high, the earnings quality was pretty decent across some of the big tech that we saw. so it is a very dangerous dynamic we are in. it is very difficult to move away from this group, because their earnings quality, meaning the consensus expectations, it all checks off from what we saw last week. >> it is also stark, when you look at the difference between the earnings growth, and the sales growth between mega cap tech, and everything else. it is actually stunning, how they have diverged so much. >> yes, i cannot agree more.

i think these companies continue, or just check in general, given the size, the economy of scale, pretty balanced cash flow, they have more flexibility, whether it is increase a dividend or initiate a ividend, buybacks or even continue the innovation path, that all checks off for some of these big tech. >> hitting new highs, on the s&p, i am looking over your shoulder to see where we are, we are 40 9:50. apparently, march does not matter? we thought march mattered, fed share powell at the meeting, basically wrote it off, the market had a little bit of an issue for a minute, and then it came right back? >> it is funny you say that. when you look at the fed features, expectations are still 46 rate cuts. the fed will meet seven more times between now and year end. until we get to a point where they have not started raising or cutting rates yet and there are still six, you would expect six rate cuts again from what the markets are expecting. >> when do you think we get the

first one? >> it is very difficult to say. i would imagine it could be sometime between june and july, this is my personal opinion -- >> i think the fed is trying to be very careful in terms of their, initiating this process as they call it, with a guard to the downright cycle. the last thing they would want to do is to lower rates or start lowering it and look totality suggests that would be too premature. that's the mistake i think they are trying to avoid at all costs. >> the other mistake people worry about, they wait too long to start cutting, right? that causes undue harm to something they actually do not want to snatched from the jaws of victory. >> that is correct. i think because some of the economic data points, whether it is the jobs report, suggesting the economy is still quite resilient, that gives the fed a little more wiggle room to delay the first cut. >> i felt they kept talking about big share, commented last night as well saying, this idea, they almost have an insurance policy in their back pocket that they were not sure they would have, because the

economy is so strong, they have the ability to remain -- maybe the market initially wanted that, they understand look, if they are patient and waiting for the right reason and they cut for the right reason, then we are good? >> i think so. the markets also need to be very careful as well, you know, the first couple of rate cuts, that is taking some of the cream of the top. but, when you are talking five, six or seven rate cuts, it could be the beginnings of another conversation, is the economy resilient enough? maybe that is why the fed needs to cut it, another risk that could bubble up, if the rate cut starts to get to that fourth, sixth or sixth rate cut. >> i read the pieces of a node that came out of my well-known strategist that we follow, who has been negative on the market for a while now. they say the risk is still a disappointment on both sides of the goldilocks narrative. how would you assess that? are we too complacent that everything will just be fine? >> there is a level of

complacency, that does put me in a bit of a cautious mood. you got the market trading at close to 20 times, the max seven as well ahead of that metric. they're just has not been enough of a dampening effect on the market to again, really create more awareness. i do worry about this complacency. again, barring no shock to the system, this complacency should continue. but, there is always room for shocks. we are very aware of geopolitical tensions rising across many places in the world. policy monetary errors continue to be a big case for us. >> a big concession, is that a no for you? >> it is obviously gotten lower. i do not necessarily use the term recession at this point, i do think moderation is still in the cards. >> and, can the market withstand that? it's not necessarily -- >> for the time the, data suggests the market can withstand that. the job report from last week still says consumer wage inflation is still up 4%. as long as that continues, it

should be able to offset cpi at three plus. as that dynamic continues, it could be a resilient factor. >> good to see you, thank you for being here. corient saving column, amy kong. up next, tracking the biggest movers as we head into the post, we are standing by once again with that -- >> hello, scott. one consumer name is up double digits after reporting results. and we have all of the details, coming up next.

we are about 15 minutes from the closing bell, let's get back down to the hippest even for a look at the key stop she is watching. hello, pippa. >> as the loudest popping after earnings, the company also says it is cutting three to 5% of its workforce, as part of a restructuring program. in its queue to report, the cosmetics maker say they are at an inflection point, a vision to return to organic sales growth during q3, and position for stronger profitability invest second half of the fiscal year. and, coinbase under pressure after they say the bitcoin etf could be a double whammy for the company. the firm estimates on a net basis, outflows from funds where coinbase is the custodian, have exceeded inflows. that, leading mizuho to reiterate it underperformed rating on the stop. those shares are down 9%. stop? >> all right, cuba, thank you, typist evens. a fast food flop shares

mcdonald's under pressure today. i will tell you what is behind the move ahead of closing bell, which is coming right back.

welcome back, two names in the semi space watching today

on semiconductor, is surging after reporting results above wall street estimates for both revenue and adjusted earnings per share. and, nvidia also climbing today. what else is new? hitting another all-time high after goldman sachs increased their price target to $800 a share to 625. speaking of some ice, up next, an x be gearing up to reporting overtime, giving you a rundown to look out for what is the top of the hour, but a much more, when we take you inside the market zone. grown, my wife is great, let's settle up the score. it's time to travel to paree, spend retirement happy. call 877-sell-easy. 877-sell-easy. 877-sell-easy, and sell your policy. you can sell all or part, live your life and play it smart. 877-sell-easy, and sell your policy. if you've had a change in health, or

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saturated bike hustle moments of this trade. plus kate rogers, from the sell- off mcconnell shares today, and steve kovach looking into nxp results, those are coming in overtime. michael, i turn to you first. we obviously did not like the prices paid reading today. the other economic data was strong. and we are in spite of, good is good, maybe it would have to be in the right places? >> yes, we have to see if the market itself, sort of over discounted could be good, maybe not yet. it is a tough market to be bare, you thought you had a good downside shot today, yields up over two days, you had the prices paid. now, with the index itself, very over bought. mark it's not really in here, there is a lot of stocks falling by the wayside. unless you are talking but isolated areas when we point to the market, the index has been finding a way, and the buy the winners strategy of course also keeps working, can't go on forever. still, very open to the idea that february, you get some

shop, positioning getting more aggressive. don't be surprised if we find an excuse to back off. when earnings are not setting off alarms in the broad sense, they are not, especially about the first quarter estimates, as they are now being revised, you are not necessarily seeing the economy buckle in any way. even senior loan officers serving today, almost a friendly reading as opposed to being a warning. it is tough to make the outright, negative case. >> rough day, kate rogers, for mcdonald's. i'm looking at shares down three and a half percent, what is going on? >> that price got a mixed quarter for mcdonald's, eps was a beast, but the company's revenues missed, costs coming in below estimates in all segments. globally, up 50.4%, in the u.s., they were up 4.3%. and a key storyline over here, international developmental licenses saw sales increased by 0.7%. that one was far below the projected increase of 5%. the segment did have positive pops in all geographic locations, with the exception

of the middle east, which was impacted by the war, as ceo -- warned of last month. kaczynski also laying out interesting commentary on the call on the consumer saying the company still sees some pressure with the consumer at 45,000 and under annual incomes. that cohort actually decreased in the most recent quarter, as groceries have become more affordable. but the company is getting share with middle and high income earners, but value really in focus for all customers across -- we will hear more from chipotle tomorrow to hear what they say about that. >> look forward that as well. kid watches, thank you very much. kovac, we're looking ahead to an x, those are in overtime. >> they have the chips in just about everything. but two important segments, scott, to pay attention to. that will give you a read on some other industries. auto, expecting that business to be up about 4% to 1.89 billion dollars. but, some signs that category might be softening microchip technology ceos that on the earnings call a few days ago,

automotive chip demand could be a bit weaker, that is what they are saying at least, but mobile also reported an x females nfc chips for phones, which is what lets you tap to pay, open your car door, things like that. the revenue, they are expected to be down more than 4%, as we know, 2023, a tough year for mobile phones. and, the guidance, that will give us a big hit, if any of those trends are turning around, paying particular attention to the mobile there, scott. >> steve kovach, thank you very much. we will see you with those numbers. -- that sound effect means less than two minutes to go. you mentioned it is tough for the bears. but, some can't break the fever? >> yes, they are still doubling down on this idea that, it is just to goldilocks in the minds of the bulls. that inflation will not take that last mile, it will be tough. and you know, the feds will not get a cut on the timeline that you wanted. >> things go wrong. it makes sense when everything seems to be meshing in a perfect way to say, i don't like this, it won't work out.

i understand that, you have a lot of these time tested indicators that still keep people from capitulating to the bold case, whether it's the inverted curve for many, many months as a leading indicator. just a general sense out there we are now relying on income growth, we have full employment already. usually, things start to soften up. i do think it is a good thing we still have this reservoir of skepticism out there. i even made the case that the fact that the index, the leadership has been so narrow in this market, while it is definitely a bit of a warning sign based on historical patterns, also, it keep people from totally trusting the market. that has been a good thing. it creates its own sense of, we are not going to go all in at this point. again, it can't work forever. but for now, until the market sort of stopped embracing the good news, you really start to have -- stocks in the capital mines that. weather is caused by users or

something else. that is the silicon valley -- valley bank thing really knocking us off course. >> we have a big crowd here today, [bell ringing] the bell is ringing, still negative [inaudible] we will see tomorrow -- all major indices in the red, russell down 1%, we have the spike, stop struggle, we are closing off monday's session. that is the scorecard on wall street. overtime, i'm john for it with morgan brennan. >> well, mcdonald's investors, not loving it today! that is the biggest drag on the dow after sales miss, not surprisingly, consumers discretionary, one of the worst sectors today, along with materials and real estate. now investors turning to another big slate of actor our earnings. we will have instant analysis of the