tv The Exchange CNBC February 8, 2024 1:00pm-2:00pm EST
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>> columbia bank shares. 7.8% yield, dragged down unfairly because of new york community bank. >> tesla, i'm doubling down on my call here. but position size with patience. there will be volatility. >> uber. >> thanks, everybody. see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. scott, thank you very much. i'm tyler mathisen in for kelly evans today. here's what's ahead. there was enough magic in disney's report to finally become a buyer. it's been years. she's back with what did it, and where she sees the stock moving from here. plus, the s&p may be nearing a record, but there are plenty of beaten down parts in the market, especially in the value trade. that's where one of our guests is bargain hunting and brings his favorites, which include some regional bank names. if you hadn't heard of zins,
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your teenager probably has. mine did when i asked him about it this morning. it's the fastest grow ing non-tobacco product. but we begin with today's markets and dom chu, who has the numbers. hey, dom. >> we're still in that s&p 500 5,000 watch. we stand at 4990 for that indecision. the record high that we did see intraday yesterday, just to put it out there again was 4999. so yes, just one point, and even less so short of that $5,000 psychological mark. today, down about four points. we were up two at the highs of the session and down roughly eight points at the lows. so, again, a very tight range. an area of consolidation. traders trying to figure out what that next leg is going to be. the dow down about 0.2 of 1%. 38,621. and the nasdaq outperforming, up just 0.2 of 1%, to 15,782, the
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current state of play on a macro level. let's take a look at one of the names that is getting a lot of attention. arm holdings, remember, back in september of last year, big, hiked up trade. the ipo price at that point was $51 per share. we're currently trading at $121.73. a massive move higher, up 58 points on the heels of better than expected earnings. also, a good forecast out of them. ai driving a lot of demand. and then i want to put a slate of stocks up that don't have a lot of things in connection with each other specifically. but microsoft and nvidia, they're both down fractionally right now. marriott international on the consumer side, american express on the financial side, and then waste management, all treading some water up fractionally. but every one of these stocks made a record high in trading today. one of about 31 stocks that all made a record high. i'm putting up waste management out there, because, tyler, we're
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golf fans. of course, across nbc sports, golf channel and peacock throughout the course of today and this weekend, it is the people's open, the waste management phoenix open being televised. so i'm going to put waste management up there. also, the big people's open. back over to you. >> a fun and rowdy event if ever there was one. i think nick saban, the former alabama coach, is playing in the pro-am there. >> a host of celebrities. >> wish you were there. i know you do. dom chu. another big mover in today's session is disney, up 12%, following better than expected earnings. that made our next guest a buyer after having a hold on the stock for five years. laura martin joins us with why now. good to have you with us. >> nice to see you. how are you, tyler? >> fantastic. you are always clear and to the point. so get there on why you switched your view on disney, and now have become a buyer.
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>> three key points. one, their cost savings will be above $7.5 billion. two, streaming lower the loss by $300 million in the last 90 days. and by $800 million year over year. and they're going to hit profitability in six months. and then they said over the next three years, they're going add about a billion dollars of operating income per year extra, which means it offsets all the linear operating income declines. so we'll have structurally growing eps here. >> what have they done right in the streaming area that puts them on the path to profitability or free cash flow profitability by later this year, what have they done? >> prices rised last october. they'll do password sharing crackdown following in netflix's footsteps. they will add 7 million new charter subscribers in the march
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quarter and probably will do similar deals with comcast, which actually not only grows revenue, but it also lowers churn. so all of those things really help, and they have cut content costs a lot, because this company was overproducing content. so netflix is profitable today. disney is about to be the second profitable streaming company. >> let's talk about the news from earlier this week, that is the joint sports venture with warner brothers and fox. what does this do and what does it signal about the business? >> so i think what it says is that, as you probably know, both fox and warner do not have any of their linear sports channels on a streaming service. so disney is going to be sort of the anchor tenant, because it has some of its channels on espn plus already. it's going to have this new -- we think they represent about 70% of total u.s. sports. so it will allow sports
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enthusiasts to turn on and turn off for seasons at a time, and have a lot of sports streaming, which a lot of young consumers prefer streaming. they don't want a linear tv bundle. >> you talked a moment ago about deals that they are going to do with charter, you expect something with comcast. are these traditional linear bundle deels or streaming deals? >> the way charter's deal works, if they launch an espn app, it becomes part of the charter bundle. for that, they got a fee for every charter subscriber like overnight. so that's why they're adding 7 million subscribers, at a wholesale rate. so it's a discounted rate compared to what we pay, but that's still a good deal, because you get the revenue overnight in perpetuity because those people don't churn. >> talk to me about this epic games deal that was announced, $1.5 billion, what does that do
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for disney? >> i think traditionally what's been the best thing about disney is they target kids, and they sort of try to bring you into their princess environment or the "toy story" environment when you're 6, 7, 8. then they try to hold onto you and create a lifetime value of consumer products and film and television subscriptions over your life. they are losing that as video games get more popular. predominant viewing done by young men 15 to 25 is on video games. so they bought $1.5 billion equity, so they have a competent individual video game maker to young men. >> let's talk about the parks business. take me through that. i think of that as the real sort of anchor of disney's business.
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what's happening there? how are they going to get growth there? they raised prices a lot. i can't imagine they can send them that much higher in this environment, but maybe they can. >> so let's split it between domestic parks and offshore parks. domestic parks, you're exactly right. sort of flat attendance, per capita spending up about 4%, sort of mediocre. but what's really growing right now, what drove parks operating income to the highest level ever is international. shanghai and hong kong both have new worlds that just opened, utopia and frozen. so they're getting record attendance. and shanghai just recently opened in china. so the international parks segment is driving growth of parks to record levels of profit. >> interesting. laura martin, thank you for being with us today. we appreciate it, as always. good to see you. >> thank you. rick sen santelli is
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tracking the action. >> what a week of auctions. today was the final, $25 billion 30-year bonds. today's auction of $25 billion 30-year bonds garnered a yield of 4.36%. we talk about tailing. tailing's bad. this was on the screws, which is exactly the opposite. it stoppedthrough by two basis points. i can't tell you how aggressive that is. so 4.38 is the one issue market. this came in at 4.36. lower yield, higher price, the government selling, higher prices are good when you're a seller. now, two basis points is very large historically. because if you go through all the other metrics, the bid to cover exactly ten auction average. indirect bidders, well, that was the best since june of last year. but here's the fly in the ointment. 14.5 since august of 202.
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those are direct bidders like pension funds, large, domestic issues, and even those can't take away thefact that a-minus is the grade. pricing was very aggressive where interest rates were up, and maybe the most important issue of all, 4.41 is the high yield close for 30-yield bonds for all of 2024 thus far. keep a close eye on that level, because should we start to get near that, look for a good deal of selling, despite the fact that the auction went so well. tyler, back to you. >> 4.41 is the number to watch. there you see it at 4.35. rick santelli, thank you very much. let's turn to ari wald. you think rates are finding a floor here. tell us what you see the bond market telling us. >> sure. rates are finding a floor, and i think that's going to be the action going forward. the stability in the bond market
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that should support equity prices looking ahead against this not to hot, not too cold backdrop. i think generally, not being an economist, i don't think the fed is in a hurry to cut interest rates for the very reason that the -- >> seems not. >> they want to avoid that 1970 scenario. when they did cut too quickly. so the market is rallying with those expectations, and i think that's historically consist tent. be careful of what you ask for. by the time we cut rates, we could be closer to that rate. >> your view is that the s&p is undervalued below 5400. where do you think the s&p heads from here? >> we like that 5400 level by year end. so round number, 5,000, i think we achieve 5,000 in a very bullish manner. the index has reached a level of 73, that often -- >> what is rsi?
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>> it's a measure of the speed of price. now, a lot of commentators talk about it being overbought. it's really just indicating that price is accelerating. only 35% of major tops have occurred with an rsi above 70. that number drops to 4% when you're above 4%. so the higher the rsi, the less likely we get a market top. year two of the bull market underway, 5400 would be on par with typical gains. >> let's move on to a couple of individual stocks and i know you want to share your views on. beginning with take two out after the bell. >> the key with take two is really the leadership that we have seen and the growth factor overall. it's been a broad-based theme. it's large-cap growth, mid-cap growth, small-cap growth. take two, what's notable about
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this chart, it is one of the broadening list of stocks that continue to move higher above the december high. a lot has been made about moderating. take two has bucked that trend. it's pushed higher, it shows relative strength, it continues to retrace the stark losses suffered in between 2021 and 2022. we think that continues. >> affirm is next on your list. this has been a very hot stock. >> the whole industry has been hot. >> you think it stays that way? >> i like those broad-based themes. here is took -- it surged in the fourth quarter. it moved above its peak level from august of 2022. it's been consolidating and working off those excesses by going sideways above that breakout. former resistance becomes support, and we think the larger breakout continues looking ahead. >> let's move on to first energy and get your thoughts there. what are the headwinds there?
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you had a buy on affirm, by the way. >> buy the growth names, take two, affirm and sell the defenses. we are bearish on defense sectors here. all these stocks in the sector look like that. multiyear relative lows, first energy failing at its bearish 200-day average. we see that as a potential resumption of the stock's ongoing down trend. >> and hb-6 scandal, explain what that is. you think the company is getting past that? >> not a utility analyst. i don't cover the stock. i'm just looking at the themes across the board. very weak, relative action. >> so you got a sell on that one? >> we do. underweight sector. >> ari, thank you very much. all right, folks, coming up, capitol hill is picking a new battle against big tobacco. but should the blame be directed at the maker of these nicotine pouches where they are becoming
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earnings guidance. one bright spot is the growth of its zyn nicotine pouch. phillip morris acquired the company behind zyn, that is swedish match, in late 2022, as part of its push to replace cigarettes with less harmful nicotine delivering alternative. while you may have never heard of it, it's become a phenomenon on social media with 31,000 posts tagged on tiktok alone. it's become so popular, there are now so-called zyn-influencers, enough to catch the eye of chuck schumer, saying -- >> the ceo addressed some of those concerns on cnbc earlier today. >> there are some conversations taking place, especially in the social media space, and i always
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want to be very careful, because we have to be very careful. people under age may follow these conversations, and we don't want to send the wrong signals to them. these products are helping a lot of smokers in the u.s., and very much on the international. >> here to discuss those risks is dr. scott gottlieb, former fda commissioner and a cnbc contributor. let's dig into what zyn's explosive growth means for phillip morris. matt, welcome. you have a buy on the stock of phillip morris international. despite what some are characterizing as a somewhat soggy earnings report, a little bit disappointing. but i think a lot of that centers around fx, foreign exchange, correct? >> yes, tyler, thanks for having me on. you're right to point out fx, it was a significant headwind in
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the past 2023. but we are turning the page on that. the fx headwind projected in 2024 is much less burdensome, just a low single digit headwind-to-earnings growth. the key akeaway in the 2024 outlook sit calls for another year of robust growth that's benefitting from the company's smoke-free transformation that supported -- that continued momentum in the smoke-free portfolio. a fairly resilient performance. >> when you say heated tobacco, what does that mean, and icos, you need to explain what those two segments, which are growing are doing, what are they? >> so icos is phillip morris's heated tobacco brand. this is an inhaleable product that delivers nicotine to the user with substantially fewer exposure to harmful constituents
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within traditional cigarette smoke. it was introduced in japan over ten years ago. it's been growing robustly in international markets. the company is just now at the stage where it can begin to introduce it in the united states. they're going to have a test launch in a specific city in 2024, and they are waiting on fda authorization for a more updated version before a more fulsome rollout, which we believe will occur in 2025. >> it's a tobacco product? it's not like the vaping products, a liquefied form of nicotine, am i right on that? >> that's right, tyler. it is a tobacco product that the actual consumable portion of the device that -- what's called a heat stick that is heated to vaporize the nicotine and the taste does contain tobacco. but the product is heated and not combusted, and the
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combustion portion of smoking a cigarette is where many of the harmful constituents are formed. this heated technology has been shown scientifically to reduce a user's exposure to the harmful constituents. in fact, fda has authorized a version of this product to be marketed as a modified risk tobacco product. one of the very few products in the united states to get that authorization from fda. >> so that is an inhaleable product with tobacco as the origin, i suppose, of the nicotine. the zyn product, which has -- take us through some of the growth metrics on this. it was not something i had heard of until our producers told me about it yesterday. i asked my 18-year-old if he efficient heard of it. he said absolutely he has heard of it. tell me what it is, how it works, and is it more benign in terms of health effects or do we know whether it's more benign or not than tobacco based products.
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this is a nicotine pouch that you put into your mouth. >> that's correct. it is a nicotine oral tobacco product. it does not contain -- i'm sorry, oral nicotine product. it does not contain tobacco. these products were introduced in the united states over ten years ago, but we've seen explosive growth over the last three years, with consumers understanding the benefits of the convenience of the product, and potentially the harm reduction, especially for u.s. smokers that are converting to using zyn for -- to fulfill their nicotine needs. the category is growing very strongly. zyn is by far the market share leader in the category. it holds over a 75% volume share in the united states. >> how important is it to the company's bottom line, and how important will it be if growth continues the way it has been, which is really exponential?
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>> so zyn is a growing importance to phillip morris' bottom line. the product is significantly -- as well as to profit, given the economics of the u.s. market. the u.s. nicotine market is a very profitable market. phillip morris participates in that market today through zyn nicotine pouches. in addition to the importance of the actual zyn product, the infrastructure that it acquired with swedish match and the investments it's made since that acquisition will provide the backbone for phillip morris to launch that heated tobacco product into the united states once it is fda authorized. >> matt, thank you for your background on this. and your thoughts about phillip morris. we appreciate it. matt smith. let's turn now to dr. scott gottlieb to address the health concerns. you say at this point, the risks may be more about what the social media companies are not doing and with what phillip morris is doing.
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in other words, you think that those social media platforms bear a responsibility for this product's growth among underaged users, and underaged in this case mean 2s s 21 and under, correct? >> that's correct. this is sort of an organic movement that started on social media and being targeted to young people. the platforms could step in to try to police and shut down some of this messaging. i know phillip morris has reached out to some of the platforms and has gotten back form letters. we need to restart the conference around harm reduction. while nicotine not completely safe substance, isn't what causes all the death and disease from tobacco. it's the products of combustion. if we can convert more smokers onto these modified risk products that don't have all the harms associated with combustion, we can achieve a net public health benefit. there's currently 28 million americans who still smoke
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cigarettes. while rates of smoking have come down in recent years, the rate of reduction has slowed. the way we're going to make substantial inroads in reducing that further is trying to offer adult smokers products that don't pose the same risks as cigarettes for those that still want to enjoy satisfying levels of nicotine without the harms that come with combusting cigarettes. >> as i try to wrap my head around the sort of moral questions that are posed by a product like zyn, i come to this, and i like to get you to help me through it. zyn can be a transitional product in a sense away from combustible smoking tobacco products, towards zyn, which is purely a nicotine product. on the other hand, can zyn be a transitional product that leads a young user of zyn toward a tobacco product? in other words -- >> absolutely. >> go ahead. >> absolutely. that's what we saw happen with
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juul. that's the concern that it will addict a young generation to nicotine -- >> it's a gateway. >> right. but that's why you need appropriate regulation in the marketplace and have to put these products through an appropriate series of regulatory gates. there's 600,000 applications pending with the fda for different tobacco products. i would prioritize some of these products to get them approved by the fda, which would give the agency more tools to make sure the marketing and the positioning in the marketplace is appropriate, and isn't going to lead to a lot of unnecessary use. you're always going to have some youth, any youth use is too much. the rates right now are relativery low. legislators and others are right to be vigilant to make sure this doesn't become another juul. but, you know, there is a role for these products being marketed to adult smokers, and i
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think properly regulated, you can put in place restrictions that keep it out of the hands of kids. you're also going to have to rely on the social media platforms. it's not just these zyn products and tobacco products, there's also thc products being marketed to children as well on these platforms, if you look at the advertising. >> it's very interesting that you point to the social media platforms as the -- i don't know. i guess not the pushers, that's too strong a word here, but in other words, that they have been less responsible it seems you're saying that phillip morris has been in trying to police or restrict the use by youth of this product, zyn. >> well, look, this is a relatively new phenomenon by some self-winding people on social media. some social influencers. we've seen historically the social media platforms, for example, step in to cut down or
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crack down on the marketing of opioids years ago. we brow beat them into doing that. they were reluctant to do that. i was at fda at the time. they can do the same thing here. they can put in place controls that filter out these messages to children. i don't think phillip morris wants this to be marketed to kids and wants to see the youth use rise, because it will spoil the market for adult smokers, and adults who still want to access nicotine aren't necessarily smokers, but want to enjoy nicotine, don't want to do it through products of combustion. as long as it remains legal, adults are going to seek it out, some portion of adults will seek it out. they're better off with a product like this or a vaping product than a cigarette, because, again, it's the products of combustion that causes all the death and disease. >> fascinating conversation, dr. gottlieb. glad to have you with us. thank you. coming up, this tech name tops the newest just 100 list, despite most of its tech peers falling in the ranks.
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week, revealing the corporations her performing best. hewlett packard taking the top prize. there you see it. kate rogers has more. >> stake holders prioritize employee issues this year, so those were given the heaviest right in the just 100 ranking. hp number 21 when it comes to workers issues. there were three priorities, making up 42% of the final score. first, paying a fair living wage, most important issue for the fourth year running. second, that the company creates jobs this the u.s., and third that it prioritizes accountability to all stake holders. it's no surprise to see the american public paying attention. 2023 was a big year for the labor movement. nearly 500,000 workers went on strike last year according to cornell university, twice the 2022 number. autoworkers, actors and
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hollywood writers saw big gains, and momentum will continue this year. across every demographic just surveyed, politics, race, gender, age and income, americans were united in wanting companies to prioritize workers as the most important stake holder. leading are bank of america, citi group, nvidia and jpmorgan. i cover the restaurant sector and i looked for names in that space. the only name in that sector in the just 100 this year is starbucks, coming in overall at number 24, ranking 137 in workers issues, out of the 937 russell 1,000 companies that just capital surveys for this list. back to you. >> thank you, kate. how many of these just 100 companies have had union activities in recent years, given the focus on worker rights and maybe the reinvigoration of the movement? >> from t-mobile to gm to starbucks, whose workers kicked
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off the big labor uprising we saw in 2021. nearly 400 cafes are unionized now, but a drop in the bucket of their 8,000 locations. but labor advocates say this year will continue to be a big one for workers rights given lastier's momentum. that speaks to the trend that workers at these companies are offered competitive benefits on the just 100 list. in this environment, many still say they want more. >> all right. kate rogers, thank you. to pippa stevens we go for a news update. >> the supreme court made it easier for whistleblowers in finance to win lawsuits by rejecting a bid to impose a higher bar. the court ruled in favor of reinstating a $1.7 million verdict for a former udf employee who accused the company of firing him in retaliation for refusing to publish misleading reports. the swiss bank wanted the court to require whistleblowers to prove the company retaliated. global warming surpassed 1.5
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degrees celsius for the past year. data from the eu showed last year was 1.52 degrees celsius hotter on average, faster than the limit set by the paris agreement. but some scientists say while the record is a milestone, it doesn't mean efforts to curb warming have failed. the court of arbitration for sport ruled that the russian figure skater did not meet burden of proof to overturn her four-year competition drug band. the court dismissed her explanation of a positive drug test, that it was caused by a strawberry dessert her grandfather made. i still remember watching her program at the olympics. it was quite something. >> an amazing story there, and i guess we'll see what happens ultimately in that case. thanks, pippa. coming up, former nfl line braker brandon copeland will join us live ahead of the big bowl on sunday with his new initiative, to tackle financial
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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. we are just three days away from the super bowl. our next guest knows a thing or two about football. he's an nfl line backer for a decade. after retiring last year, he's made it his mission to teach people to importance of financial literacy. his new book is now available for presale.
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joining us now ahead of the game is brandon copeland, ceo of athletes.org. good to have you with us. >> great to be here. you said, i know a little bit about football. i don't know too much about playing in the super bowl, though. it's still good to be here with you. >> we'll get your thoughts about the game this weekend and whether the big winner will be taylor and travis or somebody else. who knows? let's talk about financial literacy. i'm curious as to how you and your wife got into this area, what interested you about it, what was the motivation, and then we'll probe into some of the ways you're trying to reach athletes and others. go ahead. >> yeah. i think i've been extremely fortunate and blessed to be around some amazing people. however, i learned about a lot of financial concepts, either through bad experiences or the result of being an nfl player. i don't think that you should have to make it to the nfl in order to learn about your 401(k)
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or what an i.r.a. is or how to invest or do due diligence. so for my wife and i, we found ways to try to educate people and really allow people to be a fly on the wall to the confidences that we are privy to. and it's been extremely rewarding, but more importantly, we helped a lot of people achieve their own financial success and create the lifestyles they want. >> life 101, how does it work, how do i get on it? >> so you go to the website, and ultimately, this is a digitized version of the class that i teach at the university of pennsylvania now. we've taught it for six years. basically, i hate to say this publicly, but i was experimenting at penn so that we could work with different partners and production companies to provide this to the world. again, we have had a lot of success. you can go on there and take our class. we condense everything down to you get what you need in quick and short form. but we also tried to make it -- we tried to demock atize the
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access to it. so through that and through partners, we have had hundreds of thousands of people take it at this point, and we are continuing to grow and get the word out. what is is know money? >> know money, thinking of partnerships, it's a partnership i have. we wanted to find unique ways to talk about money to people, right? all this whole financial literacy, financial education movement is how do you get more people coming to the table, having a conversation about money? and so know money is a show we helped produce, write, and direct in front of a live studio audience. it talks about money in a very, very unique and interesting way. it's putting me in a totally out of my comfort zone, but the feedback from people have been tremendous. please check it out. it's on youtube, free and easily accessible and shared with somebody. >> tell me a little about
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athletes.org and whether it's aimed largely at college athletes who now are having to confront financial questions at a much earlier stage as a result of nils and the transfer portal and the fact that it is now all about money, right? >> you're exactly right. it is 100% for college athletes. we are the players association for college athletes. fortunately, when i came into the nfl, i was fortunate to have a players association who advocated for me, helped me maximize my income, amplify my voice and provided me with on-demand support. we are bringing that same model down to college athletes. as you mentioned, with nil, college athletes are going pro sooner, and nil is one piece of the pie. we believe that klecollege athls deserve a larger piece of the
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pie -- >> is this in a sense a labor movement? we heard about labor approval for basketball playersat dartmouth, and apparently, there's going to be a lot more sort of players association organizations around college athletics, is that what you're a part of? >> yes, absolutely. so we are the players association for college athletes. we have a very flexible model and infrastructure. so we are not a union in total, but by us organizing athletes into chapters based on their sport and their conference, so acc, men's and women's basketball, or big east men's basketball and women's basketball. now those chapters can then become the launch pads for unions, if it makes sense for those athletes. right now, people want to paint a broad paint bush or a broad stroke on all athletes. unfortunately, me and the issues i dealt with at an ivey league school playing football is different than folks playing
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football at bama or the university of michigan. so now we're able to advocate for them, for their particular set of issues. >> quick thought on who is going to win the bowl on sunday, kansas city or the other team that will be playing, san francisco, and then the over-under number of times we'll see taylor swift, more than six? >> definitely more than six, especially if travis kelce is balling out there. they've just been here before. they have the experience. they are executing their super bowl process, while others are trying to figure it out. so having that experience going into a game like this, with all the momentum on the side, and with taylor swift on the side, i think the chiefs will make it happen in the end. >> they've been a hot peoteam t past month. brandon, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> i appreciate you having me, tyler. >> you bet, man. google revamping its ai offerings but leaving out a key business segment.
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renaming the chat box after the ai model powering it, and announcing a paid subscription to a more advanced version of it. deidre bosa breaks down that news in today's "tech check." >> yeah, that's right. so no more bard, no more duet. ai isall going to be gemini and everywhere that google is, on your mobile, g mail and each as a toggle itself. but it doesn't address the bigger question, and that is will gemini replace or supplement google? will we will go googling something to geminiing? so they're creating an alternative. not a replacement, because he sees the chat bots are coming. but one of the criticisms is that google hasn't moved fast enough. and this may be another example. it's not pulling a facebook/meta, it's not changing its name from google to gemini, and this comes from the
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executive producer, alphabet to aiphabet. that would be a bold move. it's putting gemini everywhere, but not replacing google. >> deidre, thank you very much. we appreciate it. coming up, shares of end phase lower >> the ceo calling the -- and telling cnbc that solar will start to recover in the second quarter, as utility rates rise and interest rates fall. our strategist says that outside -- earnings miss is actually a good sign for the ocmaet. where he is right, next. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere?
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xfinity 10g network is made for streaming live sports. because it's only live once. join xfinity rewards on the xfinity app or go to xfinity1stand10gs.com for your chance to win. back to this exchange, everybody. we're sitting points away from 5000 and the s&p 500, our next guest says the rally has still legs and -- joining us will now with where he's buying is steve off, chief investment officer of -- steve, welcome back. good to have you with us. you have a price target on the s&p 500 of 5200, that's about 200 points from here. not a lot again for the rest of the year. are you tempted to up it based on what has happened so far in 2024? >> tempted to, we said that target way back in third
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quarter last year. and we did get a lot of it early on even in the fourth quarter this year so i've been getting a lot of questions about that and what i've been telling our investor base is, you think a little bit longer term here. certainly in markets a little overheated short term, and yeah i know we could and higher than 5200. i kind of look like the look at three years. there's a lot to talk about the big run we've had. we only just three weeks ago crossed over the old high the s&p. so from our perspective the bull market has just started. we've got earnings, we didn't come from an environment here with the economy is decelerating a little bit. but t's going not too hot, not too cold, for the fed. the fed is pivoting. earnings just started to resume growth after a one-year earnings recession. we've got earnings going up to 300 this year on the s&p by
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2026, 2025 are at two 75. it may sound like a lot but the nominal gdp of the -- s&p 500 companies it is gonna be up about 40%, of 2019. by 2025. their earnings numbers that we are using are pretty conservative. you've got a pretty good setup for scotch, you've got earnings resuming growth. the fed pivoting to lower rates. we're not where the -- three cuts this year, and cuts ahead of us. it's only the leading stocks that have broken the market through the old highs, so we're thinking it's time for the market to broaden out, and in our way of thinking, to get back to the original question, there's lots of stocks that can go up more than 5%. which is what we've got left against are 5200 for this year, and the overall market still just sort of crawl along, which is kind of how we see it. we're looking for laggard's,
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were tilted towards value names in particular, we like he regional banks here, then it got another whack on the head over this very idiosyncratic situation. >> let's talk about that a little bit, if we might. stephen, i should point out that your 2025 target on the s and p is 6000. that's another 20% from here. let's talk about those regional banks in light of the nyc b debacle i guess you could call it. why do you like selected banks like first horizon, p and c, and others? >> right. those are the larger regional banks and if anything they're going to see the -- moves towards them, because at the end and why cb debacle, they've got better more professional management teams, i shouldn't -- i don't want to do this and why savings, we've got very strong management teams. and they're cheap. first horizons trading at one
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time price -- if you look at a bond on your machine it'll look 0.8, but we look at -- in -- we trade 1.5 times. it's 40% of its pre bear market high. we're not thinking we're gonna get all the way back there this year, but those are areas, large cap pharma is another one that we think has legs. >> you like santa fee among others. we're a little bit up against the end of the hour so i'm gonna have to call time out there, but thank you so much for being with us, i appreciated my friend. >> thank you. >> steve auth, joining us for today. that -- power lunch, shares of arm up as much as 60% after its guidance blew past expectation, movi -da qng- me is getting ready, we'll see in just a minute.
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cody: we have dorper sheep and we have beef cattle for the sole purpose of going into the food chain. we use tiktok as a tool to inform people of what we do and why we do it. there's just a plethora of knowledge and of information swapping going on there. tiktok is helping us protect this way of life for future generations. welcome to power lunch everyone, i'm -- i'm tyler mathisen, good to have you with a storm. we are watching the markets today, s&p 500 flat-ish after getting oh so close to 5000 for the first time yesterday. just a hair. >> just a hair, one point. >> one point 99. plus google ceo ramping up this company's a.i. ambitions. we're gonna take a look at some of the companies benefiting from the big tech spend on a.i., and
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