at a hearing in new jersey's law. a lawyers a new york is aiming for an mid-june start date but the suits could push things back even further. we live in the area. >> this is going to be real controversial. we will see how that one goes if it goes at all. thank you for watching power lunch. >> closing bell, scott walker, starts right now. thank you so much for welcome to closing bell. i'm live from post night at the new york stock exchange. this make or break our begins with the surgeon s&p and the risks to the rally are mounting or much to do about nothing? will ask market watcher jeremy siegel when he joins us in just a moment. take a look at your scorecard with a 60 minutes to go in regulation because it looks like this. look at the s&p 500. we are three points away from that 5000 level. we have been hanging around for much of the day but it looks like we may make a move here in the final stretch energy is

outperforming for a change how about the mega caps? mostly mixed. there is nvidia. still above $700 a share. it has been stealing the show lately above that level and then there is disney. absolutely gripping the day after returning's. that tart having its best day than in over two years picked up almost 12%. yield are holding steady within the past couple of hours it takes a two hour talk of the take him a the record run for stocks and whether it has gotten too exuberant or not. let's ask the wharton school jeremy siegel. professor, we may make history as we have this conversation. i'm going to break away for a minute, but what do you make of this market? >> scott, it's almost amazing. we are a few weeks away from the fifth -- 50th anniversary of the financial crisis low, you might remember in march of 2009 when the snp sank down to 666 and now we are within a point or two of 5000 -- 5015

years later. that is -- 16% -- over 16% annual rate of return for 15 years. it's really quite a marvel. >> it is. you mentioned six and present for annual rate of return. since november 1st when this last 5k started, the dow is up 17%. the s&p is up 90%, nasdaq is up 23, even russell is up a nice 18%. too much? too much exuberance or not? >> we are not going to repeat that. i think the s&p is going to be much more mute. this year, at the very beginning on january 1st i said about it, 10, 12%. we are up five right now and we are not even halfway through february. i think we got a

little more to go. five to 8%, maybe. but, --. >> you are having to change her numbers every time we speak. it's incredible. the last time we spoke, but a couple of fridays ago, i think, he said, we can do another 8 to 10%. now the market keeps going up. we can do another 5 to 8%. it is remarkable. >> scott, as the market goes up, it would be sensible to tone down your future returns. basically, that's what i'm doing. certainly, the returns that we are going to see in the next 15 years, i'm not going to be anything like the return. of 14% after inflation annual return is what we have had last 15 years. that is more than twice the

long-run historical average. i have gone back to hundred and 20 years. i have the history there. you are not going to run at twice the run rate for another decade or so. that doesn't mean stocks aren't a good investment. >> believe me. you got the seasoning, professor. that's why we rely on you as often as we do because you have seen so many different market cycles. there are some who suggest that what we are witnessing now, particularly in that michael caps could be worse than what we saw in 1999. that is the note yesterday from somebody at j.p. morgan and influential strategist at that. how would you take that on? >> it's not worse than 1999. the last 16, 17%, 15 your run did end at the beginning of 2000 , and of 1899. one thing is very different. we had s&p selling at 30 times earnings at the beginning of

2000. the tech sector even far more than that. 6070 times earnings. by the way, interest rates were higher than they are today. today, we are selling at 20 times earnings. that's not cheap, but certainly it isn't a situation like 1999 or 2000. >> let's take the risk, so to speak come out one by one. it plays right off of his idea of comparisons between now and 99. the concentration of the mega caps and the astronomical gains we are witnessing, too narrow. for those who say this rally is just way too narrow and that is a name -- major risk and weakness. how do you take that on? >> let's look at the other side. i think that makes the value stocks and small stocks. they just like tremendously. are selling 15 times earnings, i think that is word that best opportunities are. i'm not

saying it's going to crush or anything, but if you are talking about how bad things are concentrated on the top, that means opportunities on the other side and that is really where i do think the better gains are going to be over the next 3 to 5 years. >> professor, we are too complacent. this commercial real estate risks. look at new york community bank. does want to be other issues. again, i'm bringing you what the naysayers still say about the quality of this market, the quality of this rally. we are ignoring too many of those risks that are yet to roost. how do you respond? >> one of the oldest things on wall street, stocks climb the wall of worry if you wait until all the worries are gone and the sky is clear, you bought at the top. not at the bottom. so, we are persistently in an age of uncertainty, and

threats, all the time. the stock market has been in that for -- since his existence. there could be bear markets, there have been, there will be bear markets, but look at the persistence of long-term returns. today, even at 20 pe that is higher than historical average, but that still projects, to me, a good seven to 8% rate of return over the next 3 to 5 years still much better than the bond market in my calculation. >> we are too reliant on ate cuts. city says any disappointment on rate cut timetable or magnitude is a single bigness biggest macro risk. >> i totally disagree. listen, this economy is withstanding these rates. that shows you the internal strength of this. if you tell me that the fed is going to lower -- i don't think march -- but in may, 50, 60

basis points, i think, that is bad news. the economy must be faltering badly. the only good grower is if they see inflation dropped much more than they expect. the other type of lowering, which is probably more probable as a worry is , the economy is slowing too much. so, at this particular point, i don't see the need for the fed to lower. take a look at all of the real indicators. they haven't slowed down. even the advanced indicators have not slowed down. when they begin to slow down, inflation is under control which i do think it is, we are going to have those lowering rates. i'm not saying this bull market at all depends on the rates being lowered in march or really in may. >> it definitely depends on there being no more hikes. there are others who suggest, that's still a risk, too. your strong economy is too hot

to handle and has a possibility of being too hot, therefore, inflation doesn't come down like the fed things and that forces their hand in a way that they don't want to have to move. so far the strength is not translating into higher prices. look at the commodity prices. oil, bloomberg index, goldman sachs, these have sensitive commodity indexes that are first to move that there is going to be inflation. i don't see any movement in those indexes. that would be a warning, unemployment claims falling below 200,000, they are in the sweet spot between 202 40. this is strong sustainable growth at this point. yes, it could turn too strong. i do not see that yet. >> strong, sustainable. you say those words and i think of nvidia. strong is an understatement. it's above $700 per the rise

has been meteoric. incredible since the november first when this last like to 5k started. the key is whether it is sustainable or not, whether the valuation of the stock has gotten, in the words of the dean evaluation at nyu stern, professor says it is insane. he owns it and says it is insane. what you say? >> i don't think it is insane. i don't comment on individual stocks, yes it is rich. i do think ai is the real thing, and by the way, ai is going to lower the cost of a lot of firms out there if used properly . it's not just going to be concentrated in the chipmakers. one can be optimistic about growth, profit, profit margins on many companies as a result of ai and nvidia. you don't have to just concentrate in those stocks. >> professor, i ent some balls

into your court and you knocked them back on my side. we are going to open the conversation up. we will and stephanie lenk of hightower advisers and joe terranova for investment partners. it's great to have you. do you agree or disagree, steph? >> i totally agree. to the point of the market right now trading at 20 imes forward, if you exclude the mag seven you are at 17 times if you look at energy discretionary and financial they are trading below 15 times. some of those sectors and stocks within those sectors are in the single digits. there definitely is value elsewhere with beyond the mag seven. the mag 7 are the mag 7. you want some exposure to them. as you know i have taken profits in a few but i am also looking for opportunities and other places within the ai community.

as well as these other sectors beyond mag 7. i'm trying to do a little bit more barbell this year than i did last year. seems i like a lot, housing, cyber security, anything tied to the consumer and onshore and aviation. there are plenty of ideas out there and all of those themes that are trading at very attractive multiples. >> joe? we have this volley with professor. it's too expensive, maybe the 23andme -- it's much cheaper than that. too complacent. no, we are not. these are one-off issues, maybe idiosyncratic. not much room into bigger deals. >> no. >> we don't even need them. the economy is good. we don't need them yet. >> it feels remarkably similar to the 94, 95, 96 experience in the way that markets are reacting to the following

condition. the federal reserve winning the fight against inflation. stepping back, pivoting, no longer being adversarial. growth being stronger than anticipating, very resilient. i think the response you are seeing is so analogous to 96 i agree with stephanie and the professors comments. what i see, you are able to go out beyond the mag 7 or the ai five and five -- find really strong performance. i have been talking about momentum coming back once again but you could look within sectors that are not technology . you can look in the financials and see companies like apollo management or interactive brokers up double digits year-to-date. you look at healthcare and see intuitive surgical or west pharmaceuticals. you can look at energy nc marathon petroleum doing well your today or industrials. >> you can cherry pick, and i don't mean in a negative sense to specifically.

you can find stocks that have done well outside the mag 7 . you can't find stocks that have done consistently as well as the mag 7. and the belief was, coming into this year, given where the rally went between november 1st and the end of december, you were finally going to get at least a pull up in the laggards. to a meaningful degree. tomley wasn't 50% for small caps. >> the thesis on the market broadening out in 2024 has failed, so far, year-to-date. without question. the reason we are sitting here right now looking at s&p potential at 5000 is because of the innovation surrounding technology. scott, back in 2014, nvidia was below four dollars. at that point, the s&p 500 was 2000. it doubled from when it was 1000 in february of 1998. it took 16 years to do that.

2500 in september of 2017 nvidia was still below $30 and here we are, it only took 6 1/2 years for the s&p potentially to double. it's the innovation of technology that is so real. professor is right. innovation surrounding generative ai is going to impact the charts. >> that shot is unbelievable. if you go from the bottom left to the top right. professor, as we look at that, there are a lot of charts that look like that. what mechanism has to happen for this rally to really broaden out? be sustainably so? >> it is possible because the economy -- every week the data suggests we are going to avoid a recession, you would think the small and mid-cap stocks, which either selling 15, 16 times earning what benefit. i always thought they were defensive because the hard landing scenario would crush them more than some of the

global tech stocks, but so far, you can't stop momentum in one sector. the only thing that could stop it of course, earnings disappointment and at this point, for those few, listen, some of the 23andme -- mag 7, look at tesla. they will fall out, and there will be a new group that will form. no one stays at the top. i remember ibm when it controlled 40% of the computer market. nobody could compete with it in the 1960s, 1970s. now, although it has done well, almost -- and also ran. i would ask joe if he sees 96, 97, does he see a potential speculative run-up 98, 99? that would lead me to worry about

how high the market would get. >> it's a good question because even has been talking a lot about exuberance. he has been making parallels between these two periods of time. he doesn't think we have hit a euphoria level yet, but he also worries that we are starting to get a little bit exuberant to the professors point. what would you say? >> if we in fact have price action that exhibits the nature of going parabolic, i think absolutely. you would have to have that rightful concern. i don't think you have a -- you have individually, yes. you have parabolic moves in individual stocks, in particular in the semiconductor industry and select areas of technology. >> arms out at 58% today. >> how you define these companies? define these companies as profitable companies. stephanie would agree with me on that, when you look at the performance of broadcom, you're talking about a profitable company. if you look back to the 97, 98

experience, a lot of the parabolic move came in areas of the market that were --. >> arms up 50% today, not 38. i apologize. carry on. >> to me, that's the distinction. the balance sheet, the nature of the balance sheet. mike santoli has done a phenomenal job talking about these companies and their qualitative nature and almost defensive in a sense, and the skepticism that remains in the market wants to own that defensive element in the market. i just think the financial condition of these companies is different than it was a 97, 98. >> stephanie, are we on the cusp of a mini mouth down? is it at danger levels? are you worried about that or not? >> while, i am worried about -- we are a little bit over bought and we have a really big inflation number next week.

i wouldn't be surprised to see volatility, but here is the thing. the economy is stronger and why that is important is because earnings have been stronger than people thought. we are running at about 5% growth for this past quarter. we are going to do upper single digits, maybe even double digits from 2024. it's not just topline, it's also margins. procter & gamble is the best example of this story of what i said. 4% organic growth is fine. they had 520 basis point year-over- year increase in gross margins tied to productivity, pricing, and lower commodity costs. lower inflation. we are seeing that and hearing from other companies as well. why that is all important is because if earnings are going higher, stocks follow were earnings are going. that is why we actually -- i would be lying if we did see volatility on any weakness. >> professor, leave us with some wisdom. how are viewers should view 5000

beyond a nice shiny round number. what it means potentially for where we go from here and how the average investor need to dig about the stock market here forward. >> it confirms to me, with all the doubts we have had over the last two years how the real earnings have come through and real stock prices have come through and the doubters have fallen by the wayside. remember, when we think about 5000, it wasn't long ago where we had some very big names telling us that p was going down to 3600. you remember that, scott. so, i think -- stocks are long- run. there is going to be volatility. i don't advise playing the game of being a traitor. a lot of people do but i don't think right now the market is overvalued for a long-term

investor by any means. >> i appreciate that. we will see you soon. thank you, joe, step as well. we are hovering really close to s&p 5000. we will see the final stretch. in the meantime we send it to christina for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. >> i'm going to focus on retail because the holiday season in china really contributing to ralph lauren's 14 straight quarter profit beats. it's positioning itself as a luxury brand similar to lv mh. they showed customers were willing to spend money on that cashmere sweaters and coffee which is sound -- found in stores. 18% hitting a 52-week high today. sticking with retail, tapestry can thank jen z for its stock boost today. it's coach brent is very popular with the younger generation and helps drive q2 revenues offsetting weakness from other brands like kate

spade and geared toward the other population. the company much like ralph lauren drive the increase luxury at seven and half percent. >> thank you. we have within again like you have a point from 5000. we are just getting started here. i almost hate taking a break. i know we have to pay the bills, but, you know what's going to happen. up next, position your portfolio. if we hit it in the break, you will probably see me sooner than a few minutes. wells fargo, chris harvey is back with us. we will talk to him next.

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welcome in wells fargo's chris harvey, the head of equity strategy. give me your thoughts as we watch what this market has been doing. >> is exciting. there's a lot going on. the funny thing is, everyone is talking to us about charts. the chart looks good, it's breaking out. the conversation about valuation is that there. the good thing is, people are talking about relative growth and relative growth is working, but overall, a lot of people are making money, a lot of enthusiasm, glass is half-full. at some point we have to worry about a pullback. >> is it too much? >> i don't think it is too much exuberance. but you are nothing the participation. i'm sure you talked about this time and time again. >> you think? thank you for watching. >> at the end of the day, we are back into another 2% gdp growth, which is why growth stocks are doing well but you are nothing the participation. that's want to continue. >> the are some who suggest

that is one of the reasons why the foundation of the market is starting to crack. it's so heavy on the top. you risk weakening so much of the bottom. the overall market can't withstand that. >> i would worry more about the market but we do think it's important you will get a pullback. you want to be positioned a certain way but that the end of the day until we see it whited out, until we see inflation numbers going higher and until we start to see this weakness start to turn, things will be okay for now. once we get the earnings season, maybe that's another story, but i would say the market is built on house of cards. the economy is fine, credit scores are tied. the fundamentals are --. obviously, you would be overweight u.s. equities? >> valuations for us is not great. we want to be positioned. we want the communications base. >> did you just build a case for why valuations justified? >> the valuation we are seeing,

one thing we're having trouble with in the started last year. without the market would be up 10%. we were right but it was high even higher than what we had expected. why was that? that was that the market was discounting not 12 months into the future but 24 months into the future. it's still doing the same thing. that's tough for us. we are not too comfortable with market levels right here right now. we are not comfortable with valuation but were more comfortable thing positioned with communication and some defensive's, healthcare or utilities. >> i'm looking at every ticket because we are so close to that level. are we too reliant on rate cuts? the idea that the fed is going to cut, cut multiple times per may not go in march, but nonetheless, it doesn't matter because the trend has changed and we all know what the fed being your alleged friend means for equity prices over the course of history. >> there is a lot there. let me see if i can hit this.

is there too much? no, i don't think it is too much. the problem with the fed, they can't walk back what they did in december. they through blood in the water and now they are telling the sharks, calm down. you can do that. is everything based on lower rates? no. the are based on the fact that you cut off higher rates, the economy is okay, valuations while high are not exuberant, and you can get a ituation where you have a lot more m&a in the market and if the gop starts getting in the senate or senate risen gop, you will start to see a more market friendly approach and i could get things --. >> was the risk of on -- beyond evaluation? that's the thing that worries you more than anything else. >> good inflation done? if we get a high inflation, we will get things reprice. what we are seeing in the marketplace, you have this by strength sell weakness. momentum is a dominant thing. when that turns and there is a

point of inflection, it is very sharp and quick and pretty nasty. >> you are worried about the possibility that the fed is going to surprise and do something that i want to do, which is hike? >> i don't really say what the fed is going to do. it's the data. they will follow the data. one of the things i think and one thing that worries me, this the fed pivot, there is a paradox. what you are doing, you are bringing interest rates down but giving a shot in the arm to the housing market which helps the economy, which helps the job market, which helps inflation come down even harder than it was before. >> from the most key metrics it is coming down. >> but it could be stuck. it might be more difficult to bring it down to that 2% we want to have six months of it to be confident. i'm not sure you will get six months. that's the fear. you ask me where the fear is. you can't bring inflation down to the level you want. >> are you worried about any other things out there, commercial real estate? maybe overstating to some

degree about the immediate risks that exist, new york community bank happened front and center yet again. how much should we be watching that? >> i worry about the cra but it's not a major issue. it's not -- you won't have a clear event. you will have the cre, this region, this property, his company, it's much more idiosyncratic than systemic. >> you find it interesting that we keep bumping right up -- yesterday 4999.89 and now we are 4999 point whatever and we are trying to bump against this hurdle that, look, the last two years have been dicey. we have not gone anywhere for a couple of years on the s&p 500 and here we find ourselves heading to this -- historical level. >> people are talking to us about charts and said, it's winter break out. we are going to get to 5000. you to 5000 and animal spirits

are back it's an important level for a lot of investors but for us valuations are still high and it's really focused on positioning style, sectors, and that's where you want to make. >> wells fargo head of equity strategy. will take another break. market behave if you will last time. see what happens in the break this time but again, if we do it as a level, i promise you, we will come back. of next we have top technician speaking of the charts that chris harvey was speaking of, jason hunter is back and what he is saying what might be next. right after this. created ommuniy where people can feel safe asking questions about spirituality. i try to provide a really accessible way of them learning about religion and spirituality, that's not intimidating. somebody in the comments said, i have no idea how i got on nun talk, but i'm not mad about it. i'm going to teach you how to pray.

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still watching for s&p 5000. we are hovering shy of that record high it would be the first ever trade above that level on a 20% rally since the start of november. it's been remarkable. joining us, jp morgan's jason hunter. welcome back. good to see you. what are the charts tell you about this move? >> what we saw into december was a broadening rally were small-cap actually outperformed, which was reported 2023. since late december in our first set of sell signals triggered across the array of indices, russell, nasdaq, s&p 500, small caps have given up all of their outperformance from the fourth quarter and we are back for what we have most

of 2023, particularly in the summertime, which is a thinning rally as the s&p moves higher. it's something that has been able to -- defy gravity diff -- despite the lack of market and repeated attempts to try to rollover. but it certainly is a broad rally at this point. it's something that makes it look like the trend is starting to get long and setting up for a near-term pullback. >> as long as we stay above -- let's say we surround this level, do you think the path is hired to what 51, 5200? does that sound reasonable? >> yeah, at this point and since the market first broke out in the fourth quarter, when the s&p moved about 40 to 50 and 4400, when it really derailed that momentum that built through the summer into fall, if you stop yourself into a trend following, tight methodology the market is still trending higher. right now, 4800 for us, that's where the s&p would have to

break to start to turn even the short term momentum signals back to negative and really run the risk of a broader setback for sure, anyone in that trend following tight methodology, the trend is up until it isn't, the leadership is then but it has not broken. some earnings report it has all et cetera lead to the upside. our view is that we don't reach the 5100 that we sell out below that but we have to respect the momentum in that handful of names. >> those are the keywords, the sell signals as you cite can be short-lived and obviously disappear and you also point out, it's difficult to sell these mega caps as they continue to go up. >> that's right. whenever you see that thinness in the rally where it is focused on growth, these aren't leading cyclical type names that are leading the charts. it feels like a late cycle environment. the curve has been inverted for a long time. if you go back to 1990s, that shows you how powerful those late site can be.

it's hard to step in front of that when you have this upside momentum. the second that turn happens, it could be quick. at this point, we weren't on the wrong set of growth. obviously, we were wrong there but at this point it's not something we would chase. we focus more on the russell. look, if the russell bricks above 2000 and you see cyclical start to lead, we will need to change our tune on our medium to long outlook. right now it looks like a late cycle environment and has gone on longer than we thought it would be has been painful over the near-term but not something we would chase by any means >> jason, we will's using -- season. i've got mike santilli are commentator, you know, mike, sometimes the inner mechanics of the market and talking about them in too much of a close in level, however i feel like it

is important to understand sometimes how the sausage is being made and why we bump up to this level so close within a 10th of a point or less, even, and can't get over the hump. >> in the abstract, we are very quiet on the macro. the intermarket stuff, the bond market is not forcing anybody's hand. you digested and therefore it's the stock market at the index level reacting to itself and the cluster of exposures you might have around numbers. if 5000 s&p was a really common level to sell call options against, to generate income and say, i get my upside up to there, you see heavy traffic area and you have to get through. it doesn't mean it's going to be a barrier. it means in an intraday basis, when it is mostly about technical stuff and trading the intraday flow, i think that's why it can hesitate. beyond that, it also happens that we are approaching this

landmark, up 22% from the intraday low, 3+ months ago. one investor positioning and sentiment arguably are already getting stretched to a point where you need to anticipate a pause, breather, pullback, anyway to the question, would it be 5100 a stretch? the trend looked like it had a date for like 5050-ish. that's where that channel was getting you to if it was trading on technicals. i think that's why people don't feel as if this is an opportunity to jump in aggressively with fresh money. even though it's a bull market and you have to treat it as such. the next pullback is probably not a devastating one. >> you're watching this too, joe. it speaks to mike's point about the markets changing so much over the years and decades. the proliferation of teachers training and options trading and the mechanics around all of that and why you could get to

4999.89 and back off and get 49 99.99 and back off. >> understand, the sp why which is the spider etf, that's pricing right now at four 98 1/2. that $500 strike you will see a lot of open interest at that level. there is something here for everyone. there is something for the bulls to get excited about. there is a chance for the bears to reload and say, okay, you got to 5000, parties over. irrational exuberance. time to correct. we are ignoring the fact that the 10 years is that for 16 which was a problem 30 days ago. that doesn't seem to matter today. ultimately, everyone keeps talking about strong technical spec we have them. momentum is reawakening for the first time since november of 2021 but let's remember, the momentum has reawakened because the fundamentals were good. the fundamentals set the foundation for the technical buyers to come in.

>> good points made by all. joe, thank you for sticking around. i appreciate that. about two points away from s&p 5k. we will truck the biggest movers into the close. christina is standing by. >> investors are playing catch- up with the arm trade shares. they are swing after the company provided it can benefit from a i. details, next. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989!

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were less than 15 from the closing bell. no 5k get up from the s&p. we do have several big movers today. christina back with what's

behind arms major move. kate rooney is standing by with the latest on paypal. christina? >> arm is signpost earnings. investors are realizing that yes, arm is an a i play. arm designs chips so it makes money from royalties and licensees. they are not only benefiting from increased royalties but parsing improvements in smart phones, auto, industrial and data centers. data centers specifically driven by customers who want more power efficient systems. that is something arm is very good at. another winner is softbank, which spun off arm and is 90% of the vote. japanese tech conglomerate posted strong december quarterly helping its shares. it's walked into the arm boat until march 12th. expect some volatility until that date. arms free flow, the amount for all of us to trade, is less than 10%. 10% available to the public. >> thank you. now to kate rooney with more on what is driving paypal's

sharply lower today. >> it is the worst performer in the s&p. is forecast is the big disappointment around earnings. alex chris spent the bulk of the earnings call describing what he called a transition year. paypal fazes a lot more competition and is in a slowdown in accounts. they were conservative on the guide. analysts are lowering their price record. the average eps came down 5% today. chris told us back in january that paypal would shock the world with the product sweep. the later fell flat. paypal needs to go to build the back track record of delivering on our commitments. as wells fargo put it, turning around the titanic that is paypal will be no small feat. scott, back over to you. >> not that long ago this market cap was higher than bank of america. just stunning. thank you, kate. we are back in the market zone, next.

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♪♪ whoo! ♪♪ light work! ♪♪ next victims. ♪♪ you ready for this? ♪pump up the jam pump it up♪ mike is still with us to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. to earnings up in overtime. steve kovach watching take two.

kate rooney back watching a firm. maybe we will have to wait another day. >> weekly closes are the most important anyway if you're looking at the charts. market seems to have a sense of humor because we approach 5000 and everyone is think it's too narrow. today the russell 2000 is up 1.4%. the russell 2000 has been the upside stander. it's trying to turn around and gather it self in a broader way, not really too much consequence just yet but we will see if we get there, not a lot in terms of moving things. it's about, can we just have a little bit of a bid to break us out, more decisively above this level. is about early february, we have come a long way this year. we are going to reset. >> see if there is more optimism around earnings per it's one of the stories steve kovach, what should we walk through? >> grand theft auto company, a lot of optimism up to the

announcement of that grand theft auto game into december. it came after the company gave massive guidance for its fiscal 2025 last year. the optimism has deflated, especially this week. downgraded the stock to neutral with a price target of $167. their theory, expectations for gta six could be overblown and also pointed to some job cuts throughout the video game industry. they also note, they are conflicted about how gta could even outperform, but either way, everyone agrees, this game is going to be the biggest video game launch in history. as for tonight, what can we expect? expecting $1.3 billion in sales for the holiday quarter. that being roughly flat from a year ago, but pay attention to morgan's when gta six and their guidance on the call. >> thank you. kate rooney, a firm, what should we expect?

>> expectations are high for affirm. this company is not expected to be profitable yet. the industry is looking for a $.73 loss per share. watch delinquencies as a key metric. the company has been able to keep those untracked in recent quarters. watch revenue less transaction costs. gross merchandise and guidance, they have not been given full year but you can get quarterly guidance. watching for any updates on the success of its recently launched debit card. intends to at some volatility. 60% of the float is sold short at this point. >> see you in overtime. kate rooney. stay tuned for our first on cnbc sedan with affirm ceo. that is coming up on overtime. mike, we have 4995 and change. what's going to be on your mind? >> one, if you look at industrials, the xl i and you

didn't know what the mega cup growth stocks were doing? that's a good look at a chart. there is nothing to tell about this part of the market, cyclical, seizing on a good economy. this really picks up on what affirm might tell us. paypal's problems today. if you look at the corporate names, morgan stanley today, downgrades american express taking profits, upgrading discover financial and ally, which are basically placed on consumers of lending. if you want to ask on the market can burn out, this has to happen in every sector where you say, get out of the quality defensive premium more expensive stock in the group, go into the ones that will actually do well if we have a decent economy and the fed cuts rates. that's encapsulating the bull case for the overall market. if it can work today, you're getting outperformance on the was more beaten up cheaper names. >> hitting the big round number assuming we eventually do forces people to take another look to top off their

portfolios like we had some do who visited with us. we are going to go out here. we are right there. we got it right at the close. albeit briefly. we did hit 5000 on the s&p for the first time ever. we will see if we settle out there. morgan and john in overtime can pick up the store. we will see you from here. you have some earnings coming up as well. i will see you all tomorrow. talk about an adventurous 30 seconds into the close. we have 5k today for the s&p 500 but as stocks settle, it looks like we are settling just below that level, 4997, that is still a record close for the s&p. record close for the dow and new 52-week high for the nasdaq. that is the scorecard on