more upwardly revised earnings per share estimates. eps estimates have been trending higher, and there have been higher analysts price targets. here's the four stocks. applied materials, akamai technologies, howmet aerospace, and com-ed. you can check out the research behind the picks. s&p above 5000. that will do it for us at "overtime." in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap -- a historic close. the s&p finishing the day above 5000 for first time ever. not to be forgotten the nasdaq crossing the 16k mark for the first time since late 2021 closing below the level. what will the slew of econ reports coming do to the rally? we'll debate that. the sun rising on japan. the country's nikkei index hitting a 34-year high overnight. it is up 11% already this year. can the run keep going? we are diving into the charts to

find out. and later, chips rip even higher as nvidia hits another all-time high. coin base rallies ahead of its earnings report. one big bear says shares are going lower. the countdown to kickoff, contessa brewer's in vegas for the big game. she's lot the latest odds and the trades and the sports betting stocks. i'm coming at you from the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- we start with the s&p 500 closing above 5000 for the first time ever securing its fifth winning week in a row. in fact, it is up 14 of the last 15 weeks, dating back to october. the nasdaq also hitting a milestone today. the tech-heavy index trading before 16,000 for the first time since investigator, 2021, earlier today. it is less than half a percent away from its own all-time high. the dow virtually flat on the day. the strong week for stocks coming ahead of another busy week of earnings. coca-cola, cisco, deere, and lyft on the calendar. will these headlines keep this

rally going? certainly seems like we want to go higher, tim. >> where are the hats? aren't we supposed to be wearing 5,000 hats -- where's your sweatshirt, s&p 5,000. enough of that. an extraordinary number when i can almost feel like yesterday when the s&p was at 666. i was under my desk on march 9th of 2009. >> fetal position. >> i mean, you know, it really has been an extraordinary run. if you look at what the market's done, it's up 32% since the start of last year. you mentioned the reference point in october that started that 14 out of 15 weeks. what's defined that? what's defined it is i think as much about the fed has peaked and inflation has peaked, but also the economy is showing strength. and i think this week is all about riding the coattails of -- good news is good news. last week's payroll number was unambiguously bullish. we could get revisions down in the next couple of months. but the reality is you combine an economy that's where it is,

you have certainly a -- a financial conditions dynamic with the wealth effect that has this consumer feeling pretty darn good. and you have companies beating. the fourth quarter earnings season has been better than expected. we may not get what we want for '24, but '23 earnings look good. >> this morning we got the revised cpi number. there's a little worry that those revisions would show that inflation was hotter and not lower. we were revised lower. that was a sigh of relief this morning. >> prior two months had revised higher. yes. everything tends to spot on. and with that said, you would have thought yields which have been rallying would have gone lower today. ten-year yields the highest point we've seen i think since december, closed around 419. there's a lot to listen -- the market is on autopilot. there's a lot to if you believe in fear-greed index, that's at levels we shouldn't be. if you want to continue sort of riding this train. you know what, we've been here for a while, and it hasn't mattered at all. >> yeah. broadening of the rally, that has happened. health care has participated since that october reference

point. >> yeah. and there's a couple of things. tim, i would sum it up as soft landing. the economy's doing better. earnings have bottomed. you start to see the economy really hitting on all cylinders. and you haven't seen it hit unemployment yet. that hasn't -- that hasn't -- it hasn't rose. so if you think about it we're in election year cycle. i always pull it back to that. i think there's going to be a lot of halo put on the economy for the election year cycle. energy prices are not going to soar. i think inflation has really -- it hasn't bottomed yet. i think we're over the hump there. but the main issue for this market is the fed still. and the fed is going to be cutting rates, so it depends on the timeline, but that sort of gives an all-clear for the market. >> how about -- why haven't we seen better participation amongst the small catches that tried to make a run at it but sputtered this year? >> i think there's a realization that what worked last year was what everyone thinks is going to work this year.

there's kind of a retrenchment because there are underlying concerns out there in terms of credit card debt and rising delinquencies. so i don't think that investors have a ton of conviction in this rally. they're in it and excited. we're all enthusiastic about where the s&p is trading. but i think people are still worried that it's better to be in a growth year position with really strong fundamentals than anything that's a little bit more speculative or uncertain or slower growing. >> right. until we get to the advances, continued advances in technology today's session. today was no exception. >> no. doug cass put out a thing, the market cap in nvidia now is greater than the market cap of the entire xle which is staggering if you think about it. north of $1 minute 7 trillion. good for them much the question, are these things going to levitate on a daily basis? and seemingly on reiteration of all the news we've heard over and over again? >> so there's this whole we're

obsessed with ai, maybe we should be, maybe we're overly obsessed. what many have talked about, especial many in the space and sector specific analysts, have come in and said ai is helping the productivity in my sector, and we're talking about companies that are in shipping and transportation and retail. walmart, i mean walmart's an ai play if you want it to be. they've made major investments in terms of that. the market that is broadening a little bit is absoluteli, and we talked about it last night, but reminding that it has been a week of oversized moves. double-digit moves. is that scary? well, if you're a disney shareholder, i am, if you're a gm shareholder, i am. you've watched stocks do nothing for four years. and you have had reaffirmation that they're company specific through things but dynamics around their business and the consumer. auto sales are actually going to be improved upon last year. the dynamincs around the consumr are resilient. we'll talk in a bit on semiconductors. i think they are their own little part of the market. but in terms of where you're

getting leadership, the kind of leadership that we've had doesn't necessarily mean that we have to stay there, and we have had head fakes on broadening. again, go back to a union pacific, csx, shippers, look at names that are having monster years. it's not just ai, not just technology. that's interesting. >> the big gap hires in the names you mentioned, specifically like a gm, it's like a realization that there is value in the market and when they put up the earnings there's realization that, yes, the story could be for real. if all the things that you pointed out in terms of the soft landing scenario plays out, you want to be in some of these better valuation names and maybe you're willing to give up the growth or, you know, move some money into some of the under -- >> that's how you're going to beat the overall market. everyone is so crowded into the tech names. but to tim's point, everyone's worried about tech being such an outsized percentage of the s&p. every company in every other sector has -- you're a tech company, or you're using technology within your company. so tek is the over-- tech is the

overlay. i wouldn't be concerned with that outsized percentage in the indices. but in order to beat the benchmarks, you have to be involved in something that is sort of under the radar because those are the ones that are going to double. >> it's also interesting that markets are doing this with the -- with the interest rates essentially at two might have mo -month -- two-month highs. the dollar is 2% off the pullback it had. we moved 40 bases basis points on the ten-year, and you had a decent auction this week, you've had dynamic. but i think rates are staying high. so there are some things that don't compute. you have this case where equity shouldn't be doing this in a 5% fed fund world. we've seen that correct. so where we are out to august, we're talking about, i don't know, about 65 basis points. that was over 1% just about three weeks ago. so the higher interest rates with the stronger dollar with equities doing this, that means good news is good news. i mean, my view is this is people believing that the economy is in a better place,

and that this isn't necessarily sad for stocks. >> or they see cuts coming. maybe it's a point of reference. >> well, i spoke to sri kumar this morning of sri kumar global -- >> by the way, you were great on "squawk box." tremendous. i'm serious. >> i learned -- >> if you were bad i would have said you were bad. you were -- >> you wouldn't have said anything. >> he could have said i was bad. anyway, but he was saying he expected a rate cut come may 1st because of a commercial real estate tsunami. >> tsunami. >> tsunami. not like a -- a hurricane or cat 2. it's like, you know, tsunami. >> jones made comments similar to that recently, as well. there are a lot of people who believe it. there are clearly no -- i want to be careful here. there are no signs in terms of some of these markets that that's on the horizon. but with that said, these things seeming to come out of thin air. that's the reason that you have to be concerned. if they cut rates for those reasons, i don't think that's particularly market friendly. >> all right. we've got a news alert on former president donald trump's

apparent aboutface on bud light. we have details. hey there. cnbc has learned the back story to a social media post from former president trump which has gotten a lot of attention this week. on february 6th, trump took to his truth social platform to argue that his supporters should give anheuser-busch a second chance in the wake of last year's controversy over the company's support for a transgender influencer. the former president appeared to be well informed of detailed aspects of the beer company's operations. he noted that the company spends $700 million a year with our great farmers, employ 65,000 americans, and has provided scholarships to families of fallen members of the military. the former president wrote, "anheuser-busch is a great manner brand that perhaps -- american brand that perhaps deserves a second chance." david faber and i can report that the trump post came after dana white, president of the ultimate fighting championship, reached out directly to trump to

encourage positive commentary about anheuser-busch. that's according to a source familiar with the situation. remember, in october ufc announced a partnership with anheuser-busch to make bud light the official beer partner of the ultimate fighting company in a deal that was reported at the time to be worth $100 million. in a press release announcing the deal white said, "there are many reasons why i chose to go with anheuser-busch and bud light, most importantly because i feel we are very aligned when it comes to our core values and what the ufc brand stands for." a spokesman for ufc declined to comment on the white-trump conversation new york stock exchange his post tuesday the former president threatened to release a list of companies other than anheuser-busch that he considers to be woke and building a list. and might just release it for the world to see, trump wrote. his followers, trump suggested, should be going after those companies that are looking to destroy america. that came after a post on february 4th in which trump was

much more critical of anheuser-busch. on february 4th, trump posted, "the bud light ad will go down as the worst ad in history. in a matter of minutes, $30 billion worth of market cap simply disappeared from the face of the earth. will they ever get it back? who knows, but what a mess." so you can see the change in tone there between the february 4th post, critical of bud light, and then that february 6th post urging that his followers should give anheuser-busch a second chance. now we know the back story to how that came to be. back to you. >> so let me get there straight. so dana white and ufc have a partnership with bud light. she calls the president and urges him to be more kind to bud light? what does trump get out of this? >> reporter: well, that's a good question, melissa. and we don't know. i mean, dana white and donald trump are, i'm told, very close, they speak regularly. white is in contact with the former president on a regular basis. and obviously the timing of this is very important for

anheuser-busch. this is just before the super bowl. obviously a big beer-drinking event. anheuser-busch, the "wall street journal" reported this week, they've got a big ad campaign for bud light coming up. they have been struggling in the wake of this sort of conservative criticism of the company for doing a deal with the transgender influencer back in april of last year. so for a year now almost, the company has been really struggling to win back support from that company -- from that constituency. you saw kid rock out there shooting cases of bud light. it's been very damaging for the company. so clearly dana white, who is -- has gotten $100 million support from january highrise bush -- has a dog -- anheuser-busch -- has a dog in that fight. we're told she asked the former president to do this in so many words. >> thank you. this is why we've seen modello gain share at least here in the united states, tim, and sort of those, you know, share shifts happening -- >> there's a lot of history between the cultures, by the

way. and guess what, i don't think bud's an american company anymore. it's owned by brazilian, 3g capital. so get your history right. and the dynamic of modelo is when bud did this big deal with imbev they had to divest assets of which they divested modelo. a home run on its own. bud shares up 45% from lows. if you look at the beer space overall we've seen a lot of consolidation within those shares and better trends on beer over the last three months. meantime, let's get to the nikkei. that index hitting a fresh 34-year high overnight. the latest move coming as the yen continues to fall. speculation rides -- rising that they will not tighten monetary policy. let's go to chief technical strategist adam turnquest. what do you see in the charts? >> thanks for having me on. you don't need to be a technician to look at the chart

of the nikkei and see we're in a strong uptrend. we might end a 34-year downtrend going back to 1989. that's the peak on the nikkei. and we're trending toward that, and there's been a lot of changes in that 34-year period. of course one of the big changes is the government reform and more shareholders-friendly policies that they've instilled into their economy. they're seeing record buybacks, record dividend payouts. households are investing in equities there. there's a pretty strong macro happy to that's driving this. when you dive into the shorter term technicals, it's really a story of breakout consolidation, breakout consolidation. we did break out early this year to new multiyear highs. we just had a shorter term breakout, we call it a bullish pennant formation. if you measure that apply it in upside price objective, that gets you to call it around 40,000. so tim, you might be -- missed the s&p 5,000 hat but you could be wearing a nikkei 40,000 by year end on the technicals.

>> we'll get working on embroidering that. thanks for the tip. part of this obviously is the weak yen. the yen right now is sitting at just about two-month lows against the dollar. what do you see there? >> when you look at the yen it's more a consolidation phase. we had a sharp pullback off that 152 level. came back, we're now back above the 200 moving average. when look at it technically it's hard to argue against a range-bound market especially with what's going on with the bank of japan. still, ultra accommodative policy there. expecting a change at some point, but we don't think it will be drastic. maybe 152 on the upper end, 140-ish on the low end. i think the market would welcome that and more of a normalization there in terms of yen trading. >> adam, great to see you. thank you. >> thanks for having me. at the beginning of the nikkei's run, part of it was the not-china trade. people didn't want to be in china anymore and just simply allocated to japan. is there more to it at this point? >> tim's been on this -- what

part of that was warren buffett talking about his ownership, five banks in japan. that started this, as well. the ewj is not making new all-time highs. that has room. i think the largest holding is toyota motors which was a final trade of tim's last -- i think earlier this week. that's number one. i tell you what, that you might get value in in terms of the ewj. >> and ewj was my final trade last night. part of the reason that's weak is because of the weak yern. you have exposure to the currency. i think japan's gangbusters. again, i work on an international etf i.d. with the i in bicep, japan is major part of the etf. toyota motors. and the dynamic is not just inflation again in japan but the tsx -- excuse me, the tokyo stock exchange, try this again, has been putting a lot of pressure on companies to increase payouts and buybacks. the corporate governance dynamics are better in japan than they have been in a long time. i think theepds companies look

interest -- these companies look interesting. >> we talk about our market dependent on technology. their market is roughly -- over 40% technology levered. that seems to be pushing the market along with the yen, along with pricing. va valuation the are in line. buybacks on the rise. i think it's an awakening when you had a deinflationary market, now you're starting to see inflation and it's taking those higher. >> have you noticed that hardly a night goes by where tim does not mention his -- >> bicep -- >> it's getting shameless. >> it's -- the -- >> i love that. >> a lot of green left in the year, though. >> you know what, there's nothing i can say when i'm called shameless by melissa. i'm going to stop right now. >> you're not shame -- the mention of bicep is -- >> you started this with the acronyms. >> at least tim did it correctly. >> he did the acronym. not going to mention names. >> thank you, mr. clam. coming up, details on

nvidia's huge investment helping draw chip stocks through the roof and a buzz kill, bad news for moderna's entry into the rsv space. oh, charades! - okay! - love it! umm... first word. - tonsillitis! - nostril! uh-uh... bill! uh-huh... - hip-hop! - limping! mmhmm! medical bills! uh-huh! - pancakes! - cash! who pays you cash when you have medical bills? grrr! no idea. [tapping] gap! the gap left by health insurance? who pays cash to help close that gap? aflac! oh, aflac! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com pictionary?! in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses doesn't cover at aflac.com move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack!

as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

xfinity rewards presents: '1st and 10gs.' xfinity is giving away ten grand fun to a new lucky winners, risks, charges, expenses for every first and ten during the big game. enter daily through february 9th for a chance to win 10gs. with the ultimate speed, power, and reliability the xfinity 10g network is made for streaming live sports. because it's only live once. join xfinity rewards on the xfinity app or go to

xfinity1stand10gs.com for your chance to win. welcome back to "fast money." semiconductors soaring in today's session. the smh etf jumping 2 as the white house announces plans to invest $5 billion in new semiconductor research and development. nvidia among the biggest winners on reports that it is forming a new unit focussed on designing custom chips including advance ai processors for cloud computing firms. that stock closing at a fresh all-time high and gaining 3.5%. it's unstoppable it seems at least, tim. >> it's up, you know, 40% year to date. this announcement today is another niche they're carving out while other folks are scrambling to get close to what they're doing. if you look at semis, you know, they're up 142% from october of '22. apparently semis double every year. if you think about the

leadership, again, we talked about the market. but until semis stop leading, and again leading the nasdaq, which is leading the s&p, the market's going higher. there's all kinds of metaphors and analogies to where they are in the -- they're the new commodity. they are -- we talk about that. that used to mean cyclicality. now it means high growth and until that stops leading, folks, it's going to lead. >> there's an argument for both. it can really fit the bill for a couple of arguments. julie, if you're a believer in being invested in the growth stocks because of uncertainty or whatever it is, they fit the bill. if you're a believer that there's a soft landing here and you want to be in cyclicals, semis fit the bill. i mean, it's like for everybody. for every argument you have. >> yeah. you can make any argument around them, and i think that's what you're seeing in the valuations for them. there's just so much support broadly speaking. i still am concerned that the cyclicality is underestimated and that some of the growth that we're seeing now is not sustainable. so i think it really benefits to be choosy and being really

selective in the types that you're using. at the end of the day, these are still very capital-intensive businesses that have a hard time forecasting growth. so i think for me you've got to be really careful. >> i think sam altman announced he was trying to raise $7 trillion -- >> trillion. the u.s. is going to spend $5 billion on these research and development centers, and it will be in the trillions. >> in the middle east. >> in the middle east. >> in the middle east. that's going to go over well. >> i mean, global -- good for him. i think global gdp is like $100 trillion. when you -- when you hear things like this, you're pushing toward the outskirts of absurdity. $7 trillion fund -- >> like the top? >> good luck. i mean, you know, he probably pulls it off. but that's something. >> julie is right to talk about the cyclicality. you brought up, i brought it up, too. but here's the point -- we actually so taiwan semi this year give guidance in numbers, they're going to grow 9.5% this january over last january. a lot of these chip companies in the last 12 years have had to

hit the headwinds of inventory and skcorrections. part of this move and it's extraordinary by any measure, has been we've gotten kind of an all clear on destocking and growth again. and that cycle. and it's -- it's -- alive and well. >> you definitely had a supply chain opening up. if you look at nvidia, it was about pixie dust. and then you look at they are the only ones that are monetizing right now. and they own an 85% market share in ai. so when you look at nvidia, everyone comparesamd as a second choice. but the third choice, which should be your second, broadcom, broadcom outperformed amd. unless you actually look at the numbers, you wouldn't have realized that. so the dark horse in this is avgo. but nvidia sill owns the crown in all of ai. their game to lose. >> a terrible setup, nvidia is, ahead of its earnings a couple weeks from now. >> as it has been for the last two earnings quarters. >> that's true. >> steve's right about avgo

also. we were playing that game about -- again, we love to play games here. apparently the acronym game is getting old. apparently i've heard to -- getting old. but that we played a game where who would you put in the new ma g7. avgo is probably that name. >> that's interesting. >> i gave a different fwname th day. there's more to come. here's what's coming up next -- >> a biotech buzz kill. moderna tripping out of the starting gate in the latest vaccine race as competitors surge ahead. is it time to ditch this name? we'll diagnose the winners and losers next. plus, crypto craze or crypto curse? we'll sit town with one of wall street's biggest coin-based bears to figure out why he thinks you should brace for trouble in the bitcoin exchange's stock. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. ♪♪ whoo! ♪♪

light work! ♪♪ next victims. ♪♪ you ready for this? ♪pump up the jam pump it up♪

(ella) fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business.

we need to scale with customer demand... in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want, when they want it. (jen) now we're even smarter and ready for what's next. (vo) achieve enterprise intelligence. it's your vision, it's your verizon. welcome back to "fast money." shares of moderna taking a tumble, down almost 7% after new data showed a drop in efficacy rate for its rsv vaccine.

the trial suggesting the shot was less effective compared to others from gsk and pfizer. in a statement, moderna cautioned against making comparisons between the vaccines, pointing to differences in the company's trials. nonetheless it went from 88% efficacy in month three to 30-something-percent months after that. >> you only have so many dollars to allocate in that space. you hear news like this, you're not going to wait for moderna to get it right or for them to get off the mat in terms of the stock price. it's been nothing for last few years. you're going to be in names giving beta-like technology, those eli lilly, novo. merck's gotten off the mat, as well. moderna's a good story, but in this environment good is not good enough. >> good for pfizer's vaccine not necessarily -- this is too small. pfizer's supposed to be moving away. >> again, moderna, pfizer, these were the heroes of covid. these are the stocks that actually can't get out of their own way. even though the companies trying hard to tell you about the rest of their pipeline, we're not

believing them. moderna has a lot of cash on the balance sheet but if they're not growing and they're in yesterday's trade -- that stock's been all over the place, big rallies here. i would say you don't need to buy it tomorrow. >> when you look at these names, it's difficult to pick the binary outcome. and the world has turned on its head. we were pre-covid, then covid, everything runs through the roof. everything -- you can't buy for a vaccine, you have to buy it for the glp, glp stocks, or you just buy xbi or ibb and set it forget it. you're not going to get utsized binary outcomes. but it's still you don't have to worry about downslides. >> when you see the big cap pharma names, i'm thinking of a pfizer, you think they've got to make acquisitions? pfizer did make its own big acquisition, but there are others out there. so steve's point about going for the smaller potential, you know, index of potential targets has been the answer for a lot of people. >> yeah. i think that's thoughtful. you know, they've committed to

$2.5 billion for their r&d over the next several years. and i think part of that is really just going to be in acquisitions in terms of bolstering the pipeline. i know that they want to do more in internally, and look, these were the heroes of covid. but it's really hard when you have just constant stubbing of your feet to say no, we have differentiated technology, and that it's we have prefilled syringes. it's like, that's great, but it's not necessarily enough to beat the other competitors if they have better efficacy. for sure i think acquisitions are the only catalyst for this stock right now. coming up, the countdown to the big game is on, and that means sports betting stocks could be about to score. we'll bring you the very latest from vegas and an industry that can't wait for kickoff. plus, coin-based shares surging as bits coin closes in on 50,000. is the crypto trading stock flying high now only to fall hard later? we will talk to one of the company's biggest bears next. missed a moment of "fast"? catch us on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast.

i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing out a week of milestones today.

the s&p closing above 5,000 for the first time in history. blocking in a fifth straight week of gains. the nasdaq jumping above 16,000 for the first time since november, 2021. it's now less than half a percent from its record. the dow the only index down today but still with a gain for the week. a couple losers did sneak in. pepsi dropping after reporting a miss on revenues before the bell. sales falling in q4. and expedia plunging nearly 18% after last night's earnings report. it was the stock's worst day since the start of the pandemic. meantime a crypto comeback. coin base rising over 7% today as bitcoin hit 48,000, the highest level in almost a month. the crypto space pulling back in the weeks immediately after spot bitcoin etfs were out. our guest thinks coin base is vulnerable. dan doloff, great to have you with us. it's not just today's gain in coin base. yesterday had a big gain, as well. what do you attribute this move to?

>> i think it's fomo. the trait has been -- bitcoin goes up, so does coin base. i think we're in for a rough awakening. what's happening beneath the hood is eft outflows from the coin base custodian efts are exceeding the inflows. gray scale is falling apart. the take rate is falling apart because they're giving concessions for high-volume traders. so everything that you were hoping for, like high take rates, high vomlumes, high spot everything is reversing. it's an amazing short the higher it goes. >> within the course of three days in january, jpmorgan down downgraded coin base $80 price target, oppenheimer upgraded it $160 price target. clearly they're looking at two entirely different things. you're obviously on the lower camp. but why that sort of disparity in terms. -- in terms of analysts? >> the interesting thing, there's something emotional about bitcoin and crypto. i can't really explain it. so you know, if you're people

that are diehard believers in bitcoin and crypto, they're not seeing the underlying facts. they're saying crypto goes up, coin base goes up. it's more emotional than anything else. it's for -- for psychologists to explain more than people like us. >> i hear you. as someone that's been dabbling in coin base in the last six months, and it's not been a bad trade until it wasn't a great trade the last few weeks, the psychology whether it's some of the emotion around it tells me if we believe in bitcoin and we believe in essentially the mass doo adoption and more regulation, there are more tokens to come. isn't this the onramp? isn't this story which was so good for bitcoin -- and i understand the fact is you're talking about absolutely right. it's very interesting to see it play out even though we expected this. how about all the other, you know, tokens to come? and that for a lot of people this is the wild west, and that's where they're going. >> yeah. look, i personally, my own personal views, i think the whole thing is silly. >> the whole crypto space? >> yeah. >> the tokens, ether, salon,

silli? >> 100%. there is no what's the use case? but that's a whole different story, right? i'm personally like -- called a bitcoin bear. i cover cane base. i don't think -- coin base. i don't think it's a productive asset. that said, i think competition is getting harder. all the inflows are going to fidelity. so when people wake up and they're seeing those take rates, those yields implode, when they report, right, q4 take rates are going to be lower for the first time in many, many quarters. then that bifuration between bitcoin up, coin base up, that's going to change. my prediction is more -- i can't predict bitcoin, there's smarter people out there. but i can predict what the sentiment will be once the take rates implode on coin base. >> i want to pick up there. i think that's the interesting part that you could have this divergence within it. when you look at ibit and look at the other efts and to tim's point, when you have a bunch of other coins that are out there, that should be a bullish case for coin base. but the problem is everyone thinks that the narrative is

going to be that they're -- they're not enough of the pie, all the volume was with etherium or bitcoin. if etherium is the next to go eft that's the game play for rest of them. when you look at the divergents, what stocks could go up if coin baits is no longer correlate -- base is no longer correlated, what stocks are correlated? >> great question. i love robin hood. robin hood is probably the best play regardless of whether you're a bull on crypto, et cetera. you could trade efts. you cannot trade on coin base because they're cuss total yum. the take rate is five basis points on a good day. you should want to be in robin hood because that's where the equity or eft side is going to benefit from. >> i get that you can trade them on robin hood, but just because you can trade the efts on a platform doesn't mean you go to

robin road. what is it about the robin hood platform that makes for in attractive for those who want to trade as opposed to fidelity or schwab? >> it's the -- great point -- it's the quintessential trading platform for young people. and by the way, it's global. they're getting into the uk, they're getting into europe. so it's -- of course if you're high net worth individual and you want to trade it on schwab or fidelity, you'll keep doing that. for people who are like in their 20s or even below that, they're going to go to robin hood. they're going to say, hey, i want to trade the eft. let me do it on robin hood. it gets more people to trade more in my view, it's great for robin road. >> you would short coin base ahead of earnings even? >> 100%. >> all right. good to see you. thank you. julie, what's your take here on coin base? >> yeah, i completely agree with everything he said. you know, i continue to view this space as highly speculative. it doesn't really serve a purpose or solve major problems. but other than, you know,

straight gambling. so i agree that they're positioning, though, as custodian as maybe misunderstood, by, you know, less seasoned investors and that that's going to come to the market and come to the fore in the next earnings. >> we have seen other crypto-related stocks run, as well, in the past couple of days, microstrategy, marathon, all those. >> just -- well, overlay bitcoin, you see microstrategies. i'm with them on robin hood. they're going to be profitable this year, i think. the last couple of quarters have been good. they have cash on the balance sheet at 11 and change. this is one you might want to take a shot at. i think the -- they report on the 13th. >> are you an ether? >> i am. gray scale ether was my biggest position last year. it's somewhere down the food chain now because it's tripled basically. that's going to -- that will be the next one that becomes an eft. hopefully you start to see that rise. it will happen in june. >> didn't mention it -- >> no. >> had to put up the graphic wage to remind the acronym -- >> i forgot --

>> sometimes you have to advocate for yourself on the show. >> that's a good lesson for us. coming up, sport betting stocks in the red -- we're getting a boost ahead of sunday's big game. and when the las vegas setting this year, there's even more focus on the gambling games. more on that ahead. finrst, julie is digging ino the housing trade. why one stock is catching her attention next. and during february, we are celebrating black heritage. here's a global head of corporate engagement at goldman sachs. i was an immigrant, and we grew up in public housing. i think there was nothing about my background that would have suggested that i would grow up to become the senior-most black professional at goldman sachs or the second person in the firm's history to sit on the management committee as a black person. but i think there's a universality about black history is american history, and american history is black history. i think there's so much to be learned in that.

♪(song in french)♪ (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) book in the hotels.com app to find your perfect somewhere.

welcome back to "fast money." time for the chart of the week. and one of our traders is watching a name that may be

flying under the radar. simpson manufacturing is up despite missing earnings estimates earlier this week. the stock has climbed 75% in the past year. julie, give us the lowdown here in why this is your chart of the week. >> what i was thinking was looking at the homebuilding eft seg segment overall because we know we are secularly underhoused. i think no one was expecting the kind of price performance in homebuilders last year that they managed to deliver. that's just a function that there is no inventory whatsoever. what i think we've realized, though, is that it's -- the problem with owning homebuilders is there's so much execution risk. they have to be in exactly the right markets. they have to sell the right product. they have to sell it at the right price for it to be successful. so it's very varied. so it sounds like, okay, i'll own it as an eft. but i think the better way to play it is look at their supply chain. and simpson is a manufacturer of the strong tie which literally hold the bracket up together in

terms of the framing. and it's mandated in a lot of building codes by name. so there's just no better marketing than having regulators literally put you as the standard that they want to see in order to approve the code. so it's just positioned really well, and they have 70% market share. and you know, they've been pricing before it was cool to raise prices. >> i think the stock's around an all-time high. a question, lumpy, which was the character, by the way, in "scrooge," earnings october they had a huge beat. had a pretty big eps miss now. what's on the back of that if anything? >> you know, i think it's -- like when you look at some of these smaller businesses they have a harder time to forecast really well and order volumes as we know in home building can be lumpy. so we look at these businesses on a yearly basis rather than quarter to quarter. and i think the long-term fundamentals of this business, if you're -- your whole period is five years which ours is, it looks favorable from here. >> can i get in a more famous

lumpy? yeah. lumpy rutherford on "leave it to beaver." he was a much more famous lumpy. if you're going to go lumpies, that's my lumpy. yeah. thanks. >> we welcome write-in suggestions in you want to join us -- >> you're favorite lumpy -- your favorite lumpy. the countdown to kickoff begins. ahead of the super bowl, a big boost in wagers. we want to know. >> which do you think has brought more fans to nfl? gambling or taylor swift? >> taylor swift. >> taylor swift. >> no doubt. >> i think it is sports gambling. >> i don't know, but that's a deadly combination. >> we'll go live to las vegas for more on the super boom in betting.

the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so, my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you.

because the advice we give is personalized, -hey, john reese, jr. -how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister's told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. incomes -- >> nix next -- >> ceo and a

welcome back to "fast money." we are counting down to the big game, and it's not just the 49ers and chiefs getting in on the action, sports betting stocks have seen a boost. contessa brewer with more on the off-field games. contessa? >> reporter: melissa, maybe it's the buzz about the super bowl. but look at draftkings. up 4% this week. the ceo told me last night that

he's got some ground to make up here in terms of the share. mgm resorts up 4%, too. expecting a super bowl lift from bet mgm as well as its las vegas empire here hosting the game. wynn got a big boost on earnings, up 9%. penn shares got some gasoline this week, almost up 7%. what's more, bank of america analyst sean kelly says penn may get the biggest boost from the taylor swift effect with women customers gambling on espn bet. and just today fanduel's parent flutter gained 3.5%. i interviewed all four ceos of the four biggest sports books right here in las vegas. fanduel, draftkings, bet mgm, and caesar's. they all told me they expect record wagers for sunday's game. >> and you got some interesting market thoughts from the players themselves, as well. so it's not as if they're not busy enough here ahead of this weekend. >> reporter: it was thought provoking truly. 49ers and chiefs head to head

tackling the kinds of tough questions we save for other wall streeters. what's your expectation of a fed rate cut this year? >> what was that? >> i think they're doing a soft landing. >> timing wise? >> timingwise probably end of the month or early q2. >> i hope it happens honestly. i bought my home last year, so i'm kind of -- i missed the train on that. >> i think toward the later part of this year, maybe q4, we'll see a rate cut. obviously jerome powell has continually fought against that. but i think he's just trying to signal the market not to get too hot. >> reporter: then there were thoughts on elon musk and ai. wall street better take notice of these guys. >> they are tuned in. at the rick of looking idiotic, i have no fear of looking idiotic on this show every day, who was the last guy talking about jerome powell? >> reporter: oh, yeah. that was christian. i don't know -- like apparently he's up maybe for mvp, christian

mcaffery. you know, like -- i was like, hey, you seem like a big deal. i'm going ask you a question. so i did. i got in there. and not only that, i -- i got a question to brock purdy. and here's another thing that may be the wall street will be interested in -- i said to brock purdy, you were a long shot when you started, was there an advantage to being underestimated? and he gave me a pretty long answer. but basically yeah, he said there is an advantage. >> contessa, thank you. great work out there. contessa brewer in las vegas. >> reporter: thank you. got it going on. she's got some great -- that's a great conversation. that guy justin watson, he knows more than i do about the fed. it's crazy. it's -- >> he's got bigger biceps. >> well -- who knows? i mean, we'll see where we end up at the end of the year if things go well. >> some of the gaming stocks, this is like black friday -- not black friday. like a big deal for the season. >> when you look at gaming

stocks, the one that's synonymous is always airdraftki. the others have something, the pie, a slice of revenues new york stock exchange -- if you want a direct play go to draftkings. this is the direct play. next, "final trades." - "best thing i've ever done." that's what freddie told me. - it was the best thing i've ever done, and- - really? - yes, without a doubt!

- i don't have any anxiety about money anymore. - great people. different people, that's for sure, and all of them had different reasons for getting a reverse mortgage, but you know what, they all felt the same about two things: they all loved their home, and they all wanted to stay in that home. and they all wanted to stay in that home. - [announcer] if you're 62 or older and own your home, you could access your equity to improve your lifestyle. a reverse mortgage loan eliminates your monthly mortgage payments and puts tax-free cash in your pocket. call the number on your screen. - why don't you call aag... and find out what a reverse mortgage can mean for you? - [announcer] call right now to receive your free no-obligation info kit. call the number on your screen.

final trade time. julie? >> you know, aspen reported a pretty good quarter. i think it's in good shape for the next year or so. can't beat 29% ebitda margins. really, really healthy. >> tim? >> we talked about bicep a little bit more -- taiwan semi, big week. i think it's still going higher. >> dan dalab gave me this, robin hood. how it comes out. >> christian mcaffery started

watching the show with his father, ed mcaffery, who played for the giants as tim knows. i'm sort of with this -- well done by you. valero continues to go higher. >> all right. happy lunar new year to those celebrating. have a great super bowl weekend. thanks for watching "fast money." "mad money" starts right now. welcome to mad money. i am just trying to make you money. call me.