it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." 5,000 and beyond. the s&p 500 closing above the key mark for the first time ever and we have a busy week ahead for earnings and the economy. merger monday in the u.s. two rivals looking to close a $50 billion deal as soon as today. not just the chief, but a big win for paramount for ad dollars. was it enough to move the bidding war?

and nato responds to the rhetoric from former president trump suggesting he would not protect ally whose fail to pay their fair share. and $95 billion bill clears a defense hurdle. it's monday, february 12th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm contessa brewer. before we get started, job well done for the chiefs. super bowl champs for the second year in a row. outlasting the 49ers in overtime. 25-22. this marks the first back-to-back super bowl win for a franchise since the new england patriots nearly 20 years

ago. that was fun. let's kickoff the hour with the check of the u.s. stock futures. the s&p closed above the 5,000 mark on friday for the first time ever. capped off the five-week win streak. the s&p with the future change here. let's check on the bond market with the two-year note and ten-year note yields. okay. oil and gasoline. there's the treasuries. it looks like the two-year note is 4.476 for the yield. the ten-year yield is 4.173. oil and gas hitting the highest level since late october. wti is down .50%. brent is down .6%. nat gas down .10%. let's check on the corporate stories and silvana henao. silvana, good morning. >> contessa, good morning.

diamondback and endeavor are very close to finalizing a roughly $25 billion stock and cash deal that would create an oil and gas company valued at more than $50 billion. according to are reports, the deal could be announced as soon as today. once confirmed, it would create the largest pure play oil producer in the permian. and a stripped down bill in a procedural vote on sunday that now heads to the floor for debate. the bill calls for $95 billion in aid to israel, ukraine and taiwan. this comes one day after the republicans blocked a wider version of the bill which includes the border security measures. a judge ruling elon musk has to testify as part of the s.e.c.

probe concerning his 2022 acquisition of twitter and whether he or anyone else committed securities fraud in the lead-up to the $44 billion deal. thank you, silvana. investors are waiting for a number of market catalysts. including the cpi report tomorrow. economists are expecting inflation to drop to 2.9% from 3.4%. that would mark the first read below 3% since 2021. ahead of that, a new poll from the national association for business economics shows 21% of those who responded knew the fed's policy stance as too restrictive. that is the most in 13 years. let's discuss this with seema shah at principal asset management. seema, i was in las vegas covering the super bowl and talked to some of the players. one of whom said to me i think the fed chairman is really

trying to keep the markets in check. is the fed right now trying to keep everyone from pushing too hard for rate cuts sooner than the fed thinks is possible? >> good morning. i think that is one of the clear messages you hear from fed speakers. expect six or seven rate cuts this year is optimistic. it seems the fed is pushing for that. if the market continues to expect a lot of easing, that means you will see considerable financial conditions easing which increases the risk of inflation pressures picking up. communication is the key part of the fed task. of course, they will watch the data. they are still data dependent. that is why you will see the data continue to be important. >> if consumer prices come in where expected, what do you think then will be the reaction from the fed? >> i think it is in line with

what the fed is expecting. it doesn't change that trajectory. we have been hearing that they are thinking three or four cuts. less and what the market is expecting. if you have a cpi in line with what the fed is expecting, that means the fed will stick to the policy. it should mean that over the coming weeks and months, that bond volatility and equity market volatility you have been seeing will fade away. >> talk a little bit about the economic data we get this week. how do you position resources? how do you position investment? how do you take advantage of the cash in money market funds and make it work for syou? >> i think this is an important time to prepare portfolios. we have seen it do very well in the last few months and first few weeks of 2024. that is likely to continue particularly when you get fed

cuts which is accompanied by a strong economy or slowing economy or recession, that is a great time for equities. we should see investors think about the valuation opportunities. thinking about the areas which are unloved last year. small cap or values. those are the areas that we can do well for this year. it is important that investors start getting ready and focusing on those areas that can do well in a fed cutting cycle. >> are you concerned about reinflation? >> i think it is a risk that investors do need to be concerned about or watching carefully. we have already seen that the core goods prices have started to show a creeping up of inflation and at the same time, the middle east tension is showing through in the shipping costs. there are risks out there. it is one reason why portfolios should have mitigation just to

make sure if there is that risk of inflation reappearing, the portfolios are still protected against that threat. >> when you are watching where we are in the earnings season, do you think the earnings reports are still connected to what you arie seeing with equities movement? >> i think they are. i think the season has been strong. one of the best things that has come out from that is the proof of consumer resilience is maintained. companies were cautious last quarter, but reassured that the consumers are strong. this is the reason you see perf. the rally is narrow and it is driven by the mega cap tech companies. we should see a broadening out of the rally and the mega cap tech will perform well. >> seema, thank you.

i appreciate your time sd. a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word investors need to know today. and one area is on a hot streak thanks to one key stock. and robert frank tells us why next. and the chiefs may take home the lombardi trophy for the second year in a row, but it was another big winner in the super bowl. paramount global with record viewers move the needle? we have a very busy hour ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating?

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taking a look at u.s. futures. you can see the s&p 500 is basically unchanged. dow jones industrial average down a little bit. the nasdaq futures fractionally higher. let's take a look at europe as its trading day is getting underway. we have joumanna bercetche with the latest. >> good morning, contessa. let's start with the asian markets. most of them are closed for the lunar new year. no price action out of china or japan this week. you can see the other indices trading are leaning negative.

australi australian index down with the healthcare and energy stocks there. the nimbi in india is down as well. most of the indices here are leaning to the green after last week from wall street. the dax is up .50%. cac 40 is up a similar ipheriese mib. tod's has announced they are looking or planning to delist from the milan exchange and go private with l. catterton. tod's is up in trading today. that is having an impact with l'oreal and kering and those in italy and france are getting a bo boost. we are watching out for key macro data in europe.

watch out for uk numbers on wednesday. >> we'll pay attention to both. thank you. turning back to the stateside and the sectors in tech are trading at all-time highs, another is rocketing high higher. ipos. the ticker ipo for renaissance is trying for the fourth straight positive session in a row. a big part of the move and one of the largest holdings in the etf is arm holdings with a 57% gain last week. the best week since the ipo back in september. is this a short-term blip or is the sector poised for a bigger breakout? we have avery marquez with us this morning. >> thank you. >> there was a little bit of a dip in january. are you seeing the turn around?

>> i believe we are seeing a turn around. you mentioned the ipo had the best week last week thanks to 2023 ipo of arm. when we start to see the ipo etf index improving, that is a good sign for activity as we use that as a benchmark for performance in the ipo sector. >> i'm curious because it seems like we have seen ipos in consumer names, but the arm ipo and the subsequent performance inspired more confidence in coming tech ipos? >> i think it is important to note that arm is a unique business. while it's performance is not a green light for all tech ipos, but it is a good sign for chip makers and those looking to play up the a.i. angle.

>> a lot of the reasons why we saw more of a freeze on ipos last year, they still remain. they are still seeing geopolitical uncertainty. the fed hasn't cut rates yet. why is there optimism with the ipo front this year? >> i think the biggest factor here is investors have now had time to absorb and react to that information. it is not so much of a shock any more. they are prepared going into the year where we started to see improved returns and settling the volatility and movement in the deep backlog of ipos over the past two years. >> what is interesting is people invested in index funds, s&p 500, you are not taking advantage of the company like arm right now. talk to me about the etf and what it offers investors in terms of opportunity. >> absolutely. the etf provides a complementary

set of indices. we like to say it offers investors access to new stocks which you will not get in major benchmark indices for months or years after the ipo. you are getting access to new technology and fresh names and smaller companies that have the possibility to deliver impressive gains. >> there are so many names out here. reddit and speculation about whether ipos will happen. can you give me a sense of the names that are engendering enthusiasm? >> absolutely. you hit the nail on the head with reddit. that is the name everybody is thinking about right now. it is expected in march. it is going to be the real first test this year of appetite for a more traditional tech ipo. we also have our eye on more

tech ipos like rear brick or panera. >> i'll pay attention to fanatics. avery, thank you. >> thank you. ahead on "worldwide exchange," millennial wealth is on the rise, partially, thanks to the stock market. our polling shows a growing number of them are not interested in investing. rortra ibe fnks here to dig into the disconnect. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

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despite the headlines about millennials falling financially behind, the cumulative wealth is surging. robert frank is joining us now. why and how, robert? >> contessa, research from the fed shows millennials have shown the fastest growth. it compares with the growth rate of 10% of those 40 to 54 and 30% for those over 55. the main reason for the young money boom is stocks. those under 40 saw the value of financial assets increase by 50% since 2019. those over 54 saw only a 20% increase. it wasn't the existing stocks

went up in value, they bought more of those. the shares went from 18 to 25%. that was the biggest increase of any generation. they are quickly closing the stock gap with older investors. the shared stocks equal to those aged 40 to 54. the research from the fed saying millennials received stimulus checks during covid and many used that for stocks. this increased exposure to equities is the fastest growing financial asset during the period enabled younger adults record higher growth in financial assets and overall wealth. con ttes contessa, they probably had a good start to 2024 with tech. >> we showed the latest youth in money poll tracking where young people put their money to work. here it says 22% say the stock

market. 7% say the bond market which is why young people are putting money in a bond market leaves me to wonder why. 50% are holding on to cash. what do you make of that? >> one explanation is what the survey looked at is the particular moment in time given high rates. the high rate of return on a cd or cash equal makes cash attractive. what we are looking at is the period from 2019 to 2023. the other issues within g gen z and millennials is a large wealth group. looking at the top 20% of millennials who have owned and basically benefitted from most of the stock market's increase in value since 2019.

>> i would be interested in the relationship with the investment of stocks and rise of robinhood or acorns. robert, great to see you. go ahead. >> that was part of the rise. what is encouraging is we worry that many of the young investors that got into the market during the pandemic would leave. this data suggests that as of the end of 2023, a lot are still in the market and benefitting from the gains. >> fascinating. robert, thank you. nice to see you. let's check on the headlines with frances rivera who is in new york with the latest. >> contessa, good morning. we begin with the shooting at one of the country's churches. two off duty officers returned fire at the lakewood church.

a 5-year-old boy is in critical condition and a man was shot in the leg. pastor osteen praised the fast response from law enforcement. and lloyd austin is back in the hospital due to a bladder issues. he has transferred his duties. the bladder problem is not expected to interfere with his excellent prognosis. donald trump is under fire for the comments he made at a rally in south carolina mu. he said nato will not support members if they do not pay up their share. this puts soldiers at risk. the white house condemned the comments as appalling and unhinged. the trump campaign said you can't be surprised if you get more war if you don't pay.

thank you, frances. coming up, likely record viewers, but also record wagers on the chiefs and niners super bowl match up. we have the latest in a moment. if you haven't already, follow our podcast. if you miss "worldwide exchange," check us out on apple or spotify or other podcast apps. a quick market mover check. lowe's is higher by 1.3%. we'll be right back. the first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be created or destroyed. (♪♪) but it can be passed on to the next generation. (♪♪)

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coming into the second half hour in new york. we have a lot ahead on "worldwide exchange." stocks doing something for the first time since 1972 as investors wait the first inflation report of 2024. futures fighting for gains. another super bowl in the box a books after why the chiefs are not the only winners. paramount global in the high-stake bidding war. why strategy from the great financial crisis may not work this time around for some big banks with even bigger loans coming due. this is monday, february 12th, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exc exchange" on cnbc.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm contessa brewer. let's check on the stock futures. the s&p closed friday above 5,000 for the first time ever which capped off a five-week win streak. we are largely flat on futures this morning. seeing movement on the s&p 500 from negative to positive. ahead of the open, the s&p 500 has closed higher 14 of the last 15 weeks and according to the dow jones industrial average data, it is the first time that happened since march of 1972 and only the 13th time going back to 1957. over that stretch, the s&p is up more than 22% for its strongest 15-week stretch since 2020.

let's look at the bond market. two-year yield at 4.474. the ten-year yield at 4.417. and oil is lower this morning with wti down by 1%. brent is off 1%. you have nat gas down .30%. let's check on the morning top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> contescontessa, good morning. tesla is temporarily cutting prices on the model y cars here in the u.s. until the end of the month. the company reducing the price of the rear-wheel drive and long-range versions by $1,000. that is roughly 2%. the move comes as tesla is warning of lower sales growth as it braces for cooler demand and production of the next generation electric vehicle. a crowd in san francisco

vandalizing and setting fire to a waymo self driving car saturday night. people were celebrating the lunar new year by setting off fireworks. others spray painted graffiti. waymo said the firework was thrown inside the car. police have not said if any arrests were made. amazon has reportedly won the exclusive rights to stream one nfl playoff game next season on prime video. amazon had been offered a playoff game this season, but passed. nbc universal snagged the rights for peeksacock valued at $100 million. the game was the most streamed u.s. event ever. the journal says amazon had a clause as part of the deal to stream thursday night football allowing it to claim next year's

playoff game. >> silvana henao, thank you. what a finish to the super bowl. kansas city chiefs went to overtime after san francisco kicked a field goal to dogo up three. patrick mahomes found the end zone to win it 25-22. the crowd goes wild. the chiefs win back-to-back titles. that is the first time since 2003-2004. the world's celebrity couple. i can't get through a report without mentions travis kelce and taylor swift. they got to celebrate on the field. fun for them. we are getting an early look at the super bowl betting. 15,000 bets per second were made before the game.

that is a geo location technology company reported super bowl weekend volumes increased 22% over last year. >> a lot of the mature states, new jersey, which has been open for ten years now, is seeing growth. we are seeing 25% year on year growth in just the playoff season alone. one of the biggest challenges we are seeing is only 50% of americans actually have access to legal licensed sports books. >> the super bowl teams both come from states without legal sports gambling. this is the action in kansas city, missouri, the green, versus kansas city, kansas, where online gambling is not legal. over time and the chiefs winning is bad for sports books because the majority of bets came in on

the chiefs winning. travis kelce scoring a touchdown, that he did not do it, was a positive for the books. a travis kelce touchdown was a popular bet. the super bowl could be a big win for paramount and nickelodeon. it is a perfect way to showcase the company which is in play for three bidders circling the assets. let's talk about that with robert fishman at moffett and alex. alex, what are you learning about viewership for the game last night and the role that is streaming is playing? >> we will find out the exact numbers later today.

i think this is an indication of a blowout viewership super bowl. certainly leading into the game. some analysts estimate this would be the highest super bowl of all time. we will see if that plays out. no question that the match up in addition to the taylor swift aspect are all good things for ratings and will being something that paramount global can champion later today. in terms of streaming, by and large, still the game is watched on lineal tv. nfl commissioner roger goodell said this past week that in his entire tenure of commissioner, there will never been an e exclusive streaming super bowl. i think that is still many years away. >> interesting you get to that.

robert, i'll get to you in one second. i had the opportunity to sit down with the nfl and talk about this opportunity. let me play that for you. >> the experiment or the engagement with peacock for the first playoff game or the theirs ni thursday night package with amazon is perfect. the commissioner said we need to fi fish where the pefish are. that lineal broadcast has been amazing for the nfl. you can't compete with each. >> it may seem they don't want to bite off the big dog. in this case, the big networks that carry the super bowl and pay a lot of money for it. if you are younger and younger viewers are coming through streaming, robert, it seems streaming is where the opportunity is located. >> good morning. it's clear that streaming is

where the growth is going to be. i guess our argument specifically around paramount and some others means what they're doing is taking the best content and putting it over the top. the problem is they are offering paramount plus at a significant discount to the rate they are charging the distributor partners. we are worried about the upcoming negotiations with the distributors. we labeled these guys cheaters of the ecosystem. we expect that to play out especially ahead of the charter deal. we have seen the template they used against disney. >> explain that. >> essentially putting the best content, as we saw last night, and the nfl and all of the premium content on cbs and other networks over the top on paramount plus which is offering it to the wider public or cord

cutters at a significant discount given all of the promotional offers. >> alex, what are you seeing? what is your anticipation for the way the performance on the super bowl and assets that paramount is bringing to the table. whether it is cbs or paramount plus, the way that intensifies the speculation over a pair up with another big company? >> i don't think the performance of the super bowl has anything to do with it. cbs only gets the super bowl every few years. however they did it in this super bowl, that will always be baked in in terms of the asset. it will be in the rear-view mirror. that has little to do with the future of paramount global. one interesting thing that does have to do with the direction of the company goes which has a

sports tie-in is the recent warner bros. discovery and fox announcement last week. paramount global is not part of that. part of the reason why they are not part of that is a subtle dig at the company. perhaps from the warner bros. discovery camp which may want to merge with paramount global. saying we don't think your content is so valuable that you need to be part of the deal. we feel disney and warner bros. and fox sports content is robust enough. probably 80% of the sports rights available. espn is part of that and espn is the bulk of the sports rights. maybe we can live without cbs, particularly going back to robert's point that it is available over the top with the digital antenna for free or on paramount plus which is not expensive of an add on. you can add it for $6 with

advertising. if you want to put it together, you don't have to spend that much more money with the robust off offering. >> robert, you upgraded. you have a $13 price target on it. where does it go from here? >> that's the ultimate question. it comes back to a lot of the speculation that we have been reading about and hearing. our upgrade was essentially acknowledgment of the dispedisper at desperation that the company is in and look for an exit here. clearly there are parties that are doing the work right now. we will see what valuation that may end up coming to. from the company's perspective, our upgrade was acknowledgment that the company does have a lot of pressure on it right now especially because of lineal ecosystem and lack of advertising and the potential

for cord cutting to accelerate and what we just heard that they are not in the new sports deal. a lot of pressure from all sides here and the upgrade was the acknowledgment they have to do something. there is underlining value if they so choose. >> robert and alex, thank you. paramount down 40% over of the last year, but in the early trade today. thank you, gentlemen. coming up, new york community bancorp lost half the value after the real estate losses hits the bottom line. now as the wave commercial loans come due, there is another sector that may be in bigger trouble than you may think. we'll be right back. (christina) being all over, all at once. (tina) all the time. (christina) but my old network wasn't cutting it. and that's not good for baking. or judging. or writing. so, we switched to verizon, the network businesses rely on.

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our therapists give their all each day. and while we're in the business of taking care of others, it's important to make sure our therapists know that with benefits from principal, they're taken care of too. (♪♪) we are seeing just fractional movement in the futures this morning. dow fractionally red. the nasdaq fractionally green. let's show you the biggest gainers. cadence design up 1.3%. ge healthcare is up as well. nvidia is up .75%. a tsunami may be coming in commercial real estate. some industry experts say special strategies could bring a soft landing. diana olick is here to explain.

good morning. >> reporter: good morning, contessa. one strategy is called extend and pretend. we hear about this which was used after the great financial crisis. lenders agreed to keep the loan as is past maturity to give borrowers time to keep up with the payments. will that work this time? i spoke to analysts and they say probably not so much. after the great financial crisis, there was little to no liquidity in the market. lenders had no way to resell. not the case today. sophisticated capital is available on the sidelines and awaiting distressed sales opportunities. now factor in the gfc when the fed was cutting rates to stimulate the economy and cre transaction activity. that is not the case today. back then, lenders had incentive to work with botrrowers who wanted to keep the property.

now extending loan s into the lower rate environment is not the case today. we know looking at sectors are in the biggest trouble. one sector that could see distress in the future is hotels. a lot of lodging loans are maturing this year and next. over $30 billion worth. more than one-third of those carry interest rates under 5%. while hotel did have a banner 2023, there is concern now the consumer is starting to struggle and businesses are starting to cut expenses. if leisure and business travel drop this year, that will hit the property owners hardrefinan higher interest rate environment. >> if this hits hotels, are there other sectors you are watching for distress? >> we are watching all of them.

apartments are starting to cool off. they were very hot. we have a lot of supply coming on the market in apartments and you are seeing rents cool. another one that i'm hearing talk about is industrial. it was very hot during the pandemic. obviously everybody ordering. you need a lot of place to put this stuff. it started to become overvalued now. some are talking about industrial going into the future and is there as much demand and has it levelled off and are the valuations too high? >> it is interesting in apartments. we talked about that before which is the rising cost of property insurance. there is questions if the distress that you have seen in offices starts to bleed over into some of the bigger apartment developments. >> absolutely. especially with the strong demand, but getting the supply coming on with more than 1 million units last year and this year, there may not be enough

people to eat that up especially with the class a apartments. >> thank you. ahead, the one word every investor needs to know today. our next guest has picks for the portfolio that he feels is under valued. we have the names in just a minute. if you haven't done so, follow our podcast. if you miss "worldwide exchange," check us out on apple or other podcast apps. we are celebrating black heritage month. here is brett hart. >> there is a sense your juroury is not complete unless areyou a giving back and you are making sure you keep a connection with the community. that is one of the things i treasure most about my journey and i treasure most about our heritage.

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i don't think you can clear this. i got this. it's yours now. welcome back. let's get to the "wex wrap-up." diamondback energy and endeavor energy nearing a $25 billion cash and stock deal to create a combined company worth $50 billion. and california public employees retirement system

buying more shares of intel and nvidia and disney while trimming net netflix. you see nvidia up in the early trade. google willspend $27 million to teach people in europe how to use artificial intelligence through social enterprises and non-profits and growth academies with free online training courses. google shares lower by .20%. jeff bezos selling 12 million shares of amazon stock marking his first sale in two years. amazon says bezos plans to sell as many as 50 million shares by next year. amazon shares are up by .15% in the early trade. elon musk moving neuralink

from nevada to delaware. musk is considering moving from delaware to texas for the corporate registration. major indices coming off five straight weeks of gains. the dow just lower slightly. nasdaq is up. joining me now is jay hatfield. jay, give me a sense of data coming out. cpi and another batch of earnings this week. what moves the needle for you? >> really cpi and ppi and how those feed into core pce. we are projecting, which is not difficult to do, that core pce will roll down to 2.6% and 2.3% by the end of march. that sets us up for rate cuts in may or june. that is why we have a street high of 5,500 on the s&p.

>> you have a contrarian view of what is happening in europe? >> right. if you are afraid the fed will wait, which they can with the strong economy, the european economy is weak. they don't have any of the advantages we have. t they don't have thing e energy advantage. germany is in recession. they need to cut. they will cut in june. that will pave the way for our fed to cut. >> give me three places for equities. >> we are focused on large cap dividend stocks. we like the investment banks. we have merger monday again and equity offerings are great for investment banks. we like small caps. preferred stocks which are overlooked. on the fixed income side, they out perform. >> jay hatfield, great to see

you. i see morgan stanley. i'mi being specific here. jay, thank you for being here with us. thank you. >> thank you. the word of the day? today's word is liquidity. that's hatfield's word of the day. i should have gone over that with you. here is the futures right now. "squawk box" is up next. i'll see you here tomorrow. how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance.

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good morning. stock futures pointing to a mixed open right now. we get key inflation data this week which would have an impact on the fed's next move or lack thereof. a foreign aid bill advancing in the senate. a vote is expected this week. we take you live to washington. the kansas city chiefs are super bowl champions. is it too soon to use the "d" word? dynasty.

well talk we'll talk about the advertising battle. it's monday, february 12th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with kejoe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we're all here. we hope you are up watching from bed. look at what is happening with the equities. you will see there is a little bit of pressure on the dow futures. down 28 points. s&p futures are flat. the nasdaq indicated up 10. the s&p closed above 5,000 on friday. you are talking about the s&p 500 and nasdaq 100 hit hating n highs. all of the