we'll talk about the advertising battle. it's monday, february 12th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with kejoe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we're all here. we hope you are up watching from bed. look at what is happening with the equities. you will see there is a little bit of pressure on the dow futures. down 28 points. s&p futures are flat. the nasdaq indicated up 10. the s&p closed above 5,000 on friday. you are talking about the s&p 500 and nasdaq 100 hit hating n highs. all of the major averages

looking at five-week winning streaks. the treasury market with the ten-year yield at 4.16%. two-year yield at 4.21. you saw the usher concert and there was a football game? it was crazy. >> i heard that. i heard it went into extra innings. that's what i heard. >> it did. the rules are different. it is like a new game. as we got close to it. it was like, there's no time. there is as much time as it would have taken. >> i was in bed and saw the three-point difference before overtime. >> apparently the president and i were both up watching. >> past your bedtimes? >> yeah. i did not tweet. i don't really think the

president tweeted. it scares me. there is someone behind all this. behind the curtain. i don't know who it is. i know they had a rough week last week and maybe should get fired. let's talk. patrick mahomes led a winning scoring drive for ckanss city in overtime. the third mvp as far as honors go. the chiefs are the first back-to-back super bowl winners since the 2004-2005 new england patriots. afterwards, you heard travis swift talking about -- >> travis swift? >> he said he wants a three-peat. he said two is not going to do it. it was amazing. i had so many bets. that's what you shouldn't do. >> did you make or lose money in the end? >> in the end, i think i broke

even. i had -- depending on whether george kittle got yards. i needed mccaffrey to score a touchdown and then pacheco as well. there are three-pointers. they're called ai field goal. they missed an extra point and that game could have been different without that extra point. >> any home runs? >> i have some bad history with the 49ers, although -- because of the bengals. yeah. terrible things. they inflicted terrible pain on cincinnati fans in the past. long ago. i really like brock purdy. >> brock purdy, the idea he did that and making as low ittle mo. >> last get in the draft.

262. i was telling becky and andrew in makeup. i'll be in there and the commercials come on and i'll do this. wait. i'm supposed to be watching them. i can't. every single time a commercial comes on, i'll take a break. then i remember i'm supposed to be watching. did you like them? i thought they were average, maybe. >> dunkin. >> it was good. >> it was pretty good. >> with ben affleck and matt. >> tom brady? >> the moisturimoisturizer. >> ceravue. >> the geico caveman was interviewed by boom er esiason. >> maybe todd combs who brought

it back. >> i looked it up to see what the actor actually looks like. we were conwondering. you knew he doesn't look like that? i thought that was him. i thought they found an actor that looked like him. >> i thought stop jewish hate ad was great. i didn't see, but read about the ads. >> the guy had paint on his boots. >> that was awesome. another one that was a boycott tesla ad which i did not see. >> i didn't see a lot of the ads. i was busy. >> usher screwed up at the beginning? >> i didn't know what was going on. it was very short, this halftime show. it felt shorter than normal to me. >> don't they make the mus musicians? >> i did watch. >> you are watching the commercials and halftime.

you saw travis kelce all over the coach, right? >> what was he yelling about? >> he was upset he wasn't in. some people were making a big deal if someone did that in high school or college, they would say give me 50. he is so -- that shows how competitive he is and i know mahomes won the mvp, but it could have easily been kelce. he did some amazing stuff. one last thing and we have to go. it reminded me of the bengals in the super bowl. there were a couple of times where they needed -- when they got a field goal and they needed to go for it. they needed to go for it. they needed to do that. with the possession they had in overtime. >> he had to keep him in the game. >> i know. i watched it happening. i knew the outcome. >> that was the only reason. >> i knew the outcome.

you give mahomes anyt time at al and can he get a field goal. they got a touchdown, no problem. we will talk more about what has been happening all morning. we should tell you u.s. shale oil with diamondback and endeavor have reached a deal. the combined company would be the third largest permian producer behind exxon and chevron. take a look at diamondback energy for the last year. andrew. yesterday, the senate voting to move forward with the $95 billion aid package for taiwan, israel and ukraine. the bill is the stripped down version of the one proposed last week which was voted down by republicans over border provisions. the border provisions were

stripped out of the bill. president biden chose to skip the super bowl interview. he posted video he on x. he called for companies to stop shrinkflation. >> they are still charging just as much. as an ice cream loever, ice crem has shrunk in size. it is a rip off. some companies are trying to full a past one by shrinking the products little by little and hoping you won't notice. give me a break. >> it didn't work for me. thing truth is this has been going forever and the flip side of shrinkflation.

they should be frustrated by it. >> it is the manifestation of the same thing. higher prices. >> get off my lawn. i'm upset. it doesn't work. i don't know if scolding the businesses is a -- if you are a business leader watching that, do you think i'm going to add more chips back to the bag. >> when i was an intern in congress, i used to take the calls. there is an 800 line. >> people call with complaints. >> it was your job to say, yes, sir, i understand. we agree with you. >> we're back to -- i don't think there is someone behind the curtain with all this. the other thing that happened later, the laser eyes and it worked perfectly according to plan.

needling the conspiracy theyory. there are some smart people behind the scenes, but others ar aring giving him bad advice. >> what about the comments that donald trump made about nato? >> he is mad they don't pay enough. he is saying they deserve. it is liking saying i can shoot someone on fifth avenue and not get in trouble. >> that's the point. president biden would be making comments about shrinkflation and we're critical of that. the other things is another league. >> and nikki haley stuff is crazy. >> we're not going to defend you if you don't pay. he said if you encourage russia. >> he said they deserve it if they don't pay. we're not going to defend them.

former president trump suggesting that the u.s. would not stand by the nato allies if they didn't pitch in enough for defense. >> i made a speech and they said you have to pay up. they asked me that question. one of the presidents of the big cou country stood up. if we don't pay and we're attacked by russia, would you protect us? you didn't pay? i would not protect you. i would encourage them do whatever the hell they want. you have to pay your bills. >> the comments sparked criticism from the white house and nato. >> criticism from everybody. >> you think the vice president should be hanged. that is ridiculous crap. >> you have to believe -- >> you have 100 of the moments

when he was president and your hair is on fire. it ends and it is gone and no one takes it seriously. >> it is the opposite. he said he would build a wall. everybody said it was fake. he is doing it. you have to believe what he says. now you say you don't believe what he says? come on. this is why people compare what is going on with the biden campaign and whether you think people behind him or propping him up or not with it or whatever it is, compared to that, it is an existential crisis. >> 86% of people in the country thinks he is too old. i don't think he will be the nominee. i think gavin newsom is waiting in the wings. you can't run this guy. you can't. you can't. it's becoming clear to everyone that there is no way.

you know, they put everyone out to talk about the hur guy. he is a bad guy. don't listen to what he says. you actually have mayorkas and the vice president saying oh, my gosh. he is the sharpest mind. you better be prepared. all that damage -- i'm not saying it is going too far. it won't work. we have problems on both sides. when he says i can shoot someone on fifth avenue. he says crazy stuff. hillary is against the second amendment. he says crazy stuff. >> and january 6th happened. he says crazy stuff happened. this is why -- by the way, when you talk about your allies, in europe this morning, they're playing that tape and every show in the world is saying is this country with us or not? >> there was the question about it. he has been saying this about nato. they heare not serious.

bombastic. it is vintage trump bs. >> they don't want either candidate. >> biden is the seventh. it is no longer. i think it will be gavin newsom. >> i don't know. >> i don't know. when we come back, key inflation data that is due this week. we'll tell you what to expect. we have that for you next. later, elon musk ordered to testify in the s.e.c. investigation. quk ig the details straht ahd. "sawbox" will be right back. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

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welcome back. on the that week's planner, you have key data. january cpi is coming tomorrow. the forecasters expect an increase of 2.9% after the december gain of 3.4%. on thursday, we get jobless claims, retail sales and import prices. on friday, the producer price index and january housing starts. on the earnings front, we hear from lyft and coca-cola and airbnb. we have cisco and kraft hines and doordash and coinbase.

we have stephanie link at hightower with us. stephanie, let's run through this. we keep watching the markets move higher. new highs that are set. weekly streaks of winning across the board. what does this feel like to you? >> it feels a little melt-up-ish, becky. for good reason. the economy is hanging in there and doing better than hanging in there. 3.4% for gdp. inflation is coming down. we have a big number, as you mentioned, this week with the cpi. we are making progress. we are down from 9.1% cpi at the peak. whether it is 3 or 2.9 or 3.2 or whatever the number may be, we are making progress. the combination of better growth and lower inflation is leading to better earnings. 81% of the companies are beating expectations. we're growing at about 5%.

i think based on what i'm hearing from companies and guidance, i think we will see double digit earnings growth this year. we are seeing revisions higher. you know that stocks follow profits. on the way up and on the way down and right now they're on the way up. >> especially if you are looking at the technology names. they had pretty good runs. you have been moving the money around in your portfolio. you actually sold some of the meta and google? >> i made a lot of money in meta. up 150%. it is prudent to take gains. i bought google last year and quickly up 26%. i sold those both. i like both long term. i think there is more opportunity in apple. it is unloved right now. 60% of the sell side have buys on the stock. i thought they had a decent quarter.

when you have 16% earnings growth and 12% ebit growth and 26% free cash flow and $173 billion in cash. they will probably increase buy back some time in the spring. they usually do. they buy the shares outstanding per year. we got the bad guy past us for the march quarter. i think the set up is a lot better. i think there's better risk/reward in a couple of technology names versus meta and alphabet. >> what else do you like besides apple? >> the themes this year are housing and a lot of con ssumer ideas as well. onshoring and anything tied to aviation. i know boeing has issues, but it will getits act together. you want to have some sort of exposure to that theme.

>> not to boeing specifically? would you buy boeing at that point? >> i own boeing. i own boeing. it has not been fun this year, for sure. i do think when you have a duopoly with airbus and the 2,000 planes in the backlog, you have boeing with nine years of backlog. they have to get their act together. no question about it. i do think the free cash flow story and recovery of free cash flow into the next several years will happen. i think down 20% year to date is an opportunity. >> go ahead. >> i also like ge who makes the engines for boeing and airbus as well. that stock has been a champ. >> you were saying something about home depot. i want to talk to you about cpi. >> sure. home depot.

i like housing. we're 5 million homes short of homes in the country. we have 5 million millennials that are first-time home buyers. home builders have been under producing for the last 14 years. home depot did not do much last year because they were beneben beneficials of covid. they had easy comparisons going forward. it may not be this quarter, becky, with good comps, but you will see a recovery. the profitability is kind of the number one priority for the company. they have done a great job. >> stephanie, cpi. we are looking for 2.9% tomorrow. if it is hotter than that or cooler than that, what is the market reaction? >> i think if it is hotter than that, you will see a selloff. we are a little bit overbought here in the short-term. any excuse to take gains.

you want to make your shopping list and buy on the weakness. you want a barbell of tech, no question about it, but you have to have other themes. i have a lot of names i'm looking to add. >> stephanie, thank you ry ve much. thanks for getting up the morning after the super bowl. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: squawk planner is sponsored by ameriprise financial. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

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>> good morning, andrew. for many black entrepreneurs, reaching out for money and advice is foreihelpful to ensury grow and thrive. we talked to two startup founders who funded two companies. disappointed with the local dating scene in washington, shelly, an attorney, saw an oppor opportunity. >> i look for a dating app. >> in 2018, she founded carpe diem. she sold her condo to fund the business and drained her savings and raised money from friends and family. >> the growth and revenue is massive. >> as the business has grown, shelley has raised $2 million and continues to make her case to investors for funding and hire more match makers and extend to other cities. >> i cannot understate the value

of getting capital into the hands of minorities and women of color to help them fuel business. >> there is a unique drive of success because of the lack of resources and necessity to drive outcomes. >> matching investors with opportunity prompted jason to start his wealth management firm in philadelphia in 2019. many clients invest in early stage businesses. >> the first thing people should think about is how it frames into the investment policy or financial plan and why they are investing. >> if clients want to invest, he advises how the company operates. evaluates the management team and the track record and most importantly, understand the terms of the investment. >> if the valuation of the company is too high and you, as the investor, is not getting enough rights or ownership or control, it may not be the right deal even if the company has

great competitive advantages. >> carpe dm seized the moment. >> we have customers and members. it makes it easier coming to the table and advocating for additional funding from investors. >> many startup founders say the goal is finding people who want to invest early and can offer mentorship to grow the company into a thriving business. andrew. >> one of the questions i have is how much money do you need to invest in the early stages? >> it really depends if you are an individual investor and want to invest in a startup, how much do you have to risk? it is a risky proposition. >> being an angel investor? >> you need $200,000 and cover $300,000 for married couple. if you are giving money to a friend which is a great idea and they have not gotten funding

yet, you don't have to meet the requirements. >> in terms of early stage companies, total guideline with how much money you have and how much you give? >> it has to work out to your plan and it is a long-term investment. jason and other wealth managers say no more than 10 or 20%. >> you like investing in a friend's business? >> i think you really have to believe in it and offering something. i like the idea of being involved in the business and offer strategies and advice or bringing something to the table they really need. you know, it is like money you don't expect to give back necessarily. >> sharon epperson, it is complicated. you want to be involved, but when the friend's business blows up, you want to be part of it. when it blows up and it doesn't exist, you don't want to be part of it. sharon, thank you.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box oibox." here live from the nasdaq market site in times square. s&p futures are flat. nasdaq is indicated up by 10 and the dow is indicated off by 5. you had a strong week last week across the board. let's talk poll continuinit issues with punchbowl's jake sherman. jake, thank you for joining us. we got an extra day in february. november will be here soon. i don't know if i can take it, jake. the chaos that we're going to be witnessing and divisiveness. how do we do this? has it been may be in a simulat this is the end game. >> we are not in a simulation,

unfortunately. this is the election, joe, that nobody wanted. nobody wants -- a lot of people don't want donald trump and a lot of people don't want joe biden. it is divisive and nasty. it is devoid of most substance. for everybody who wants an election based on a clear choice of, you know, two different policy sets, and argument about those policy sets, is not going to be happy. >> do you think, at this point -- let's say six months ago that joe biden would be the nominee was 99%, would you say? what would you say it is right now? i don't think it will be him any more. 86% of the country thinks he is too old. >> i can tell you this and i was surprised by this, joe. last week, i had members of the

house and mostly members of the house who are incredibly publicly supportive of joe biden wonder whether he will be the nominee and suggested he might not be the nominee. now, i think if joe biden can do it, he will do it. period. i think that short of hsomethin drastic happening to the president, god forbid, he will be the nominee. i'm telling you and i'm not saying this lightly. people who are publicly supportive of him and have told me they don't know if he is going to be the nominee. they have pointed out that lbj in 1968 dipped out of the race on march 31st. the fact that people arie thinking about that and have that readily available is interesting to me. >> i remember that. not everyone does. >> i don't.

>> i remember it. it was weird. he was very somber and very sad doing that. i'm rideady to say it will be gavin newsom. you can not pass over kamala harris. someone didn't think this through. i don't know who is behind the curtain at the dnc or the white house, but someone did not think this through, jake. >> joe, it is not as if there is some very strong party apparatus that is pulling strings here. he is an incumbent president who people defer to as any incumbent president. he is running again. >> jake, someone said bernie is not our nominee. clyburn made it happen. they he havave seen this happen. you can see two years ago and

did you see what joe biden looks like two yearsing ago? it is happening quickly. you are talking about five years from now. no way. no way. >> i heard a lot of people say that. it is crazy these are the choices we having going into an election. listen, he is an incumbent president who has all of the advantages of incumbency. the machine that runs the election with lots of money. a nomination process that skewed in his direction because they changed the nomination process. i think there's nobody serious that is running against him. dean phillips is in the single digits. nancy pelosi says you can't beat somebody with nobody. that's the reality of the election. >> they've got all of the president's men. they rounded up all of the usual

suspects over the weekend. they're out with disparaging hur and a trump appointee. i know he will give me probing issues. you have seen the damage control. is it working? >> i think that a democratic member of congress said to me it would have been better if he were indicted. at least it would not have dropped up all of the things about his memory and his age. that's an interesting thing to say. >> do you see it? trump has 35% of the country lining up wherever he is for ten miles at a time. you look at the crowds and is that only 35% and he would still lose the popular vote? >> i think the independent members are really bad for

trump. i think it is a dangerous thing to have independents fleeing from him as they did in the primaries or in the contest in new hampshire. i think that is a very difficult thing. if you assume 48% of the country is with biden and 48% is with trump, you are fighting for the narrow slice in the middle. i don't know which way they will break. i know they broke for him in 2016 and against him in 2020. the question is do they want another four years of him in 2024. i don't know the answer to that at this point. that is the entire election right there. >> 2022 wasn't great. maybe we will find something out. do you think the new york election means anything? >> i don't. the special elections are weird. they are weird turnouts. that is a traditionally democratic district. tom is running as an incumbent. he was gone for one term. i don't think we can take much

from it. >> jake, when you talk to folks in the democratic party and senior ranks, they all talk about it, those involved in the campaign, talk about the idea they intend to spend an enormous amount of money and saving money to start to publish as much of trump's talks and some of the comments made over the weekend closer to the actual election. the view is america hasn't seen trump enough on mainstream media and if they did, they would be appauled. they would be repulsed and not vote for him. my question is, having seen what he said this weekend, and that will run on all of the hanmajor networks today, if that is run over and over and come september and october, when you think thing big advertising push happens, do you think that changes the tenure or the

equation for voters? >> i think it could, andrew. the thing is most people are not tuned in right now. i know that is a cliche. most people are not tuned in until around labor day. i think that maxum is mostly true. although less true in the age where we are deal deluged on social media. there are two schools of thought. number one is don't talk about donald trump because he talks enough about himself and people see what he says and they love it or hate it. the other is remind people who donald trump is because, like you said, they woill be repulse by what he said. i don't know the latter is true, but money is not an issue for democrats anywhere. by the way, there are a lot of democrats who suggest that biden should be talking more about

accomplishment in ins in the fi t two years. >> what do you make of the shrinkflation ad? >> i didn't get it. i thought the juice wasn't worth the squeeze for the white house. they got a lot for it. >> come on. >> everybody is a media company, andrew? everybody has to create content. they were trying to get involved in the super bowl in a way that was safe to them and not having him in front of the interview. i think that is an interesting way to do it. >> the dark branded tweet with the laser eyes went according to plan. that was brilliant. on the other hand, you look at this and it looked like an "snl" skit. war warring factions.

>> i think the tweet was brilliant. it is absolute insanity that people thought that taylor swift and travis kelce were a large-scale -- >> laser eyes. perfect. you know the president wasn't tweeting that. >> no. that anwas probably a 25-year-o social media staffer. >> the dude. the twitter dude with the beard. >> jack dorsey sitting at the game. satoshi. >> he was in the billionaire box. >> with beyonce and jay-z. >> no one knew who he was on tv. look, there's beyonce and jack dorsey sitting there. >> elon with his kid? >> yeah. little x. >> exciting. >> a lot of sightings. when we come back, video going viral over the weekend of

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on saturday, a crowd vandalized and set fire to a waymo car using a firework in san francisco. the company spokesperson said the crowd surrounding the white suv in the chinatown districts. several people set ablaze the car after the firework was thrown inside. i don't know. i don't know what happened. when we come back, we dig into all of the headlines from the super bowl from the on-field stories to the big winners in the ad game. "squawk" is coming back after this.

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welcome back to sid"squawk box," the kansas city chiefs are super bowl champs once again. patrick mahomes sealing the victory and was named mvp of the game. joining us right now is the director of sports business programs at wash u st. louis, ceo of sports impact and a forbes.com contributor. want to welcome him to the show. let's talk ads. what'd you think of the game and what'd you think of the ads? what'd you think of halftime, by the way, too? >> halftime was okay. l like usher. a great dancer. it's hard. that's a hard hill to top. to overcome people that have done it in the past but he was fine. the commercials, andrew, it's

funny. we're past 1984, that iconic apple commercial way back when. it's hard to really thrill, but i thought there were a lot of impactful commercials. before i get to that, i think info investing in big time celebrities and humor, dunkin' donuts with ben affleck, j. lo. and matt damon. the christopher walken impressions and state farm with arnold's accent. that's the ticket in terms of trying to resonate with people. >> that arnold ad was a good add. neighbor. >> and danny devito. >> and the ceva ve with michael cera. >> does this say anything about sports or does this really say something about the nfl? >> i think ultimately, andrew, it's just difficult to top what's been done in the past.

we've all been around so long. we've seen these commercials. what i was really surprised by was the lack of qr codes. i didn't see many of these commercials last night utilize qr codes. we're seeing qr codes now being used on nba, the indiana pacers have a patch deal where they have a qr code on their jersey. i was surprised that wasn't utility utilized. they had good commercials about anti-bullying and supporting mental health, so i thought that was strong and there were also some very touching, you know, you can't get around the budweiser horses and dogs. that's very touching. kia did a very nice job where the girl performs a figure skating routine, and then she goes home to perform it for her grandfather that can't be there to watch it. a lot of impactful and useful commercials. it's just hard to top the creativity from years past. >> patrick, how much did that cost? they do the geico halftime report. some of the other guys that are

with cbs were interviewing the geico caveman. what does that cost to get that type of placement? did you see that? it was hilarious. >> you talk about placement, joe, a couple of things, intuit turbo tax. that was masterful because obviously it's tax season already, so having them at the pregame throughout the game, master stroke, and then the other big winner is allegiant airlines. during a super bowl, the naming partner for the host stadium usually gets about two to five minutes of visual exposure whistle to whistle. that is nothing compared to the 500 minutes plus they get the week before on the shoulder program, the nfl network and espn. that is huge value for the naming partner. >> temu, did they spend $30 million? >> they must have. $7 million for a 30 second shot.

they're a challenger brand that tried to raise awareness. >> we got to go one company that did use a qr code was apple at the end of the halftime report, i don't know if you saw that, the halftime show i should say. >> the halftime report. >> the branding from cnbc. >> i wonder, actually, whether most people remember that was the apple halftime show. >> yeah, i mean, that's a great question. i don't think that they did a very good job throughout the buildup to the halftime to really promote that it was them. m a tti'lile surprised by that given that it was apple in particular. >> all right, patrick, thank you, appreciate it, thanks for waking up early. >> thank you. >> "squawk box" coming back with two big hours ahead. that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world.

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good morning. a market milestone, the s&p 500 closing above 5,000 for the first time. we'll find out what traders can expect this week as we await more earnings and key inflation data. billionaires are battling back against delaware's long held grip over public companies. a look at some of the cases causing court scrutiny. prlus, the biggest stage fo brands, a look at the winners and losers in last night's super bowl battle. who's scored with viewers? we've got some fresh data. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc on the day after, the monday morning after the big super bowl. we are at the nasdaq market site in tom square.

i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. the dow setting itself up -- well, down by 28 points off. nasdaq up about 6 points. the s&p 500, we're going to call that -- we say that's just flat even though it's marginally down. the ten-year note, 4.154, the two-year sitting at 4.463. >> are we off a week from today, presidents' day? >> we are. >> what about doing that super bowl on that sunday? anyone think about that? or just have another super bowl holiday today. i mean, i'm -- >> i vote for the latter. if we're going four days a week, we can get one more crappy holiday, can't we? it's not going to kill us. you know who won't do it, the greedy traders down at the big board. >> oh, some of them might go along with that idea. >> yes, they might actually. the s&p 500 closing above 5 thousands for the first time

ever. let's bring in the chairman and ceo of strategas research partners. that is a baird company. a lot of people say we don't need rate cuts because earnings are validating current valuations. depends how you're looking at earnings. if you look at the mag 7, earnings for the mag 7 in the fourth quarter were up 59% roughly. for the s&p 493, they're actually down by about 3%. so the way the index is constructed, the market doesn't look that expensive because those big companies are providing big earnings growth, but it's not evenly distributed, and so in my opinion, for the entire market, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to have a rate cut or two, but certainly it doesn't seem to need it right now. >> so you didn't have any doritos and notice that the bag

was only half filled. >> we need rates to go higher to get rid of this -- >> that was a really positive message on a secular holiday for the president. maybe something a little more upbeat. >> you wouldn't worry if they cut -- that it's too soon given the labor? >> i'm just being pragmatic, which is to say that jay powell has essentially promised people they're going to cut largely, and they're going to cut as a result, i don't think there's any rush, and i think when our work has shown that once you have one we have of inflation over 6% over the last 120 years. the chances of getting another wave over 6% are about 9 and 10. that's the way contracts were written, thunderstoat's the way work. >> i think they're going to cut this year. >> can government spending and government employment and fiscal spending and the fed, can

keynesian economics work? is that what you attribute this economy to right now? >> i do. >> i don't know, republicans think pro -growth is supply sid stuff. >> there's just been a lot of -- >> listen, joe, we're running a budget deficit of 7% of gdp right now. we've only done that three other times since world war ii. those times we were deep in recession, and the unemployment rate was above 7. running a budget deficit this large at full employment is unheard of. it's crazy. >> trump did it too, though, right? >> nothing to this extent, nowhere near 7% of gdp. i'm not saying we didn't spend a lot of money. it's a bipartisan issue. the problem is without the fed being the buyer of last resort for treasury's, long-term interest rates are going to head higher. maybe that's the plan. but the thing is you can't control everything. if the fed is going to do that, you're going to have a

persistent inflation problem because as we know, inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. >> the yield curve will correct itself so it's going to be on the long end. the ten-year is going back above 5%. >> it all depends on whether the fed monetizes the debt again, okay? the fed's balance sheet, as you know, is a little less than $8 trillion. it was $800 billion before bear stearns failed. it grew at about 6% a year for decades, and it grew at 17% a year since the global crisis. the fed is working hand in glove with the administration or the treasury department to try to keep interest rates low and spend money we don't have, but it's dangerous, and it's very apparent, i think, in my own opinion and the president's own approval ratings as far as the economy is concerned. if you have an unemployment rate of 3.7%, a stock market at all-time highs, inflation coming

down, you can see why the administration would feel a little upset about the fact that they're as good as they are, but it's because inflation is still a nagging problem for your average person. it's not -- they are not seeing the benefits and their wages are late to catching up to the inflation that's in the system. >> how long can -- the market is supposed to be really smart. the tstock market, how long doe it con to ignore some of these nagging questions you're talking about? >> listen, i'm finding with a lot of our clients, the reason they're getting bullish, it's moral hazard. they figured it out. they figured out that anytime there's a problem, there will be somebody that comes to the rescue. silicon right lane bank failed march, early last year. market was flat year-to-date at that point. it was only early march. fed froloods the system with $400 billion. market starts to get a hit in late october, gets down to

4,100. janet yellen suspends coupon issuance, long-term interest rates go from 5 to 380. so i would just say it looks like the fix is in. you know, it's very hard to short stocks in this environment. >> even that kind of stuff should come home to roost. >> eventually. and it will come home to roost in inflation. inflation is perfect for politicians, it's slow moving. your fingerprints raren't all over it. it's almost the perfect solution to whatever ails you from a fiscal health point of view. >> that's always been the case, though. sort of a ray dalio view of the world, right? inflate your way out of everything. >> yeah, modern monetary theory -- >> different kind of tax. >> i guess we had the financial cry isis we still have never haa day of reckoning for all the debt. >> it's going to come in some

way. in my opinion, it will either come in the form of higher and long-term "associainterest rate the fed monetizes the debt again, it will corm in the form of a weaker dollar. a weaker dollar in the things that we buy every day. >> or there may be like three chips in a dorito bag eventually. that could be -- >> the shrinkflation. >> exactly. >> literally three, if you have a family of four you have to break one. it's hard to break one of those in half. you still say the mag 7. we're down to fancy four. >> oh, yeah, sensational six. >> fabulous five. >> the sexy six. there's really -- on the mag seven, there's only three really pure plays on artificial intelligence, it's google. it's microsoft, it's nvidia. still, those companies with the exception of tesla, they're all growing like a weed, right? so it's hard to fade that.

what we call the peg ratio, the p/e to growth ratio for the mag seven is actually significantly lower than the market. >> you can apple is going to have nothing to do with artificial intelligence. >> i'm saying a pure play. google, microsoft, nvidia, those are pure playsful ever, every cs going to be a play on artificial intelligence at somepoint, i believe, and apple certainly will be there, but i'm just -- >> why are they -- this is the part -- identif've heard people this, those two companies are the pure play. the others are not a pure play. meaning meta's not a pure play or apple's monot a pure play. i look at microsoft and i say to myself, they may be trying to embed ai in all of them in the same way i'm imagining -- we'll see what the keynote looks like in june for apple -- it will be embedded in everything. >> yeah. >> and that is already embedded into everything. they all have all these other

businesses, but so does google. google has got a million businesses. >> i think those dpcompanies are -- nvidia is a clear pure play. the others are far ahead of the others at this point. >> what's clifton saying? is biden going to be the nominee? i'm putting my money on newsom. >> we'd say the chances of the field are high, right, if you were going to bet on like -- >> biden/trump. >> no, everybody else. if you're betting on democratic nomination, you take the peeled as opposed to president biden, especially given what happened last week. >> time is continuing to pass, and you can almost see it daily. >> well, listen, and president biden lost "the new york times" in the last four days, right? >> you know what -- >> am i wrong about that?

>> did you have a meeting at midnight somewhere? >> no, and i find that that argument makes no sense. >> there were four -- >> but you know what, when there's news, you do the news irrespective of the politics, unlike other news outlets. >> when the "new york times" does news it's mostly opinion anyway, right? >> yes. >> joe said -- >> i withdraw the question. >> given the politics at this table here for just a second. no, no, remember hillary, the hillary emails, th's wreathe you all found out about that. that was not because there was some political conspiracy to undo somebody. it was the opposite.

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welcome back to "squawk box," the price of bitcoin crossing back over the $48,000 level over the weekend, one month after the launch of the spot bitcoin etf, this morning trading slightly lower: joining us now anthony pomp leah know. we talked about selling the news or selling the rumor, buying -- buying the rumor, selling the news, but now we've come back to buying. >> yeah. i mean, look, the verdict's in. wall street doesn't just like bitcoin, they love bitcoin. if you think of these assets, there's been over 5,500 etf law firms in history, never have we had a fund get to $3 billion. blackrock, infidelity both just did it. two for the first time in history. if you look at bit wise and 21 shares arc, they're going to hit a billion dollars this week, and now you have four funds that are going to hit a billion dollars of inflows. the most interesting part of this is the inflows, these funds

are doing $500 million a day of net inflows. there's only 900 bitcoin coming into the daily incoming supply, so when you look at that, that's like 40 to $45 million. there's 12.5 x more demand for bitcoin than what's being produced on a daily basis. >> you can just measure the actual net inflows. you can see there is way more buying pressure. >> 3 billion for black rrock. >> bit wise and 21 shares will hit a billion this upcoming week. >> total valuation of bitcoin -- >> a trillion. >> of the market cap is a trillion dollars, isn't this ady minimus issue or no? >> here's where this gets interesting. 80% of all bitcoin in circulation has not moved in the last month. $2 billion is actually trad tradeable. bitcoin has become wall street's

favor favorite asset. >> what are you going to say, joe? >> i'm not going to say, 5% doesn't sound like a lot. >> in 30 days? >> it used to take a lot for someone to invest in bitcoin, it's real easy right now. i don't know, are we going to 90,000 in a year? people don't double their money by buying an etf in a year. now i think it might be a currency that you can use because it's going to stay at 47,000. >> the world changing for sure. last year the nasdaq was up 50%. there's definitely these big moves that happen in the attritional markets. bitcoin is b obvobviously that steroids. fidelity has an all in one fund in canada. they're going to put 1 to 3%. you're going to start seeing them putting bitcoin into all of their funds because from a risk rewards standpoint, drastically improves the performance of these portfolios and they're going to start to realize if i'm lagging indicators, if i'm

lagging performance, if i put a little bit of bitcoin, it's going to enhance returns. >> i think it might be good if it stayed at 47,000 for a year. people wouldn't worry about buying a pizza with a mercedes two years from now. >> joke in the bitcoin community is the real bitcoiners want the price to stay low so they can accumulate more of it. obviously when you have this much demand. >> a year from now it's where? >> it's much higher. i think if this continues, if we have 12.5 times more command than we do incoming daily supply, we're going to go from 900 bitcoin to 450 bitcoin a day, this thing is going back to its all time high. >> what's that thing called when we all go to he know,aven, some left behind. >> the rapture. >> what's the thing you worry about? >> yeah, it's not so much right

or wrong, the return of this asset is going to dampen over time as it gets larger and as the holder base changes. one of the things that hasn't happened previously is things likes rebalancing. when you give financial advisers an asset and it impose to 5%, you're going to sell. you're going to rebalance that portfolio. when the holder base is changing, you have to understand that the return profile will come down. if you think that you're going to buy bitcoin and it's going to help you retire, those days probably are behind, but what it will do is outperform the stock market. >> then you're not in the camp of the cathie wood $500,000,000,000 base case bitcoin valuation issue. if that's true, then you can retire. >> look, again, it depends on the time line. if you're saying it's going to go from 50,000 to 500,000, that's 10x. >> i think she thinks that's what's going to happen. >> that's not that crazy. nasdaq was up 50% last year. we live in a world where it has completely lost all ties to

reality because we are printing an enormous amount of money. the interest payment on the debt is a trillion dollars, right? it was a video game number. so in that world, how much are these assets worth when the denominator is being debased away. they're going to be worth a lot more. you can start putting zeros on the end of these assets. >> anthony pomp pompliano. >> is it called the having? that wasn't the having -- >> that's where they all -- fyo had some time left. should we go? we're going to go. okay. for pomp, he loves coming on here. he wants to use every bit. so the year end is what? >> the year end price point in. >> year end target. >> it's above an all-time high. >> left behind. >> the netflix? >> the movie on it. >> the leftovers. >> because of the having.

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millennials and gen z have seen a wealth boom since covid. how this can reshape investing and the markets. >> good morning. real wealth has increased for all age groups since 2019, but new research from the fed shows that millennials and gen z have seen the fastest growth. americans under 40 saw their wealth increase by 80%. that compares with growth of 10% for those between 40 and 54 and a 30% increase for those over the age of 55. now, the main reason for the young money boom is stocks. those under 40 saw the value of their financial assets increase by 50% since 2019. those over 54 saw only a 20% increase. now, along with rising stock prices, younger investors also shifted more of their money into stocks. the share of their financial assets held in stocks went from 18 to 25%. that was the biggest increase of any generation, and they're cloet closing the stock gap with

older investors. their equity share is now equal to those age 40 to 55. the fed research saying millennials and gen z used their large stimulus checks to buy more stocks, quote, this increased exposure to equities the fastest growing financial asset asset class during the period, enabled younger adults to record higher growth in financial assets and overall wealth. those under 40 still have a lot of catching up to do, their totally wealth right now is about a third of the wealth those ages 40 to 55. it's a tenth of the wealth. that's the life cycle of wealth, right? you gain wealth over your life cycle. >> only game stop? >> they bought a lot of stuff. they bought a lot ofdifferent stuff. what's encouraging about this data which runs through the end of 2023, they're still in the market. we were all worried were they just buying meme toks and crypto

and nefts. they're up 80%, 10% of the boomers. >> if you look at boomers at age 35 versus millennials age 35. >> they're doing better. >> boomers did better. they're about a third below that wealth level. the millennials and gen z have been locked out of the housing markets because of where rates are and prices are. so the good thing is millennials who bought stocks and gen z to make up for the lack of housing equity that the boomers had, that's the only way they're going to keep gaining wealth. so stocks are really critical for this generation because of what's happening in the housing market. >> what about gen x? are they forgotten once again because they got burned? >> we're always forgotten. >> forgotten because they got burned during the financial crisis of 2008, and maybe had never made up any of these things or not big enough part of the population for us to care about. >> they don't get measured as

much. they're doing generally better than millennials and gen z, but not as good as baby boomers. >> it's good to hear this, but it is happening against the backdrop of new highs being set, the s&p 500 up 5,000. i guess i'd be more interested to see what happens after the first downturn. >> absolutely. >> ask how much that washes out. >> we did see a downturn in 2022. we also have a big wealth gap within millennials, and so they found that the wealth gap within millennials is the largest wealth gap of any generation. so the top 10% of millennials are wealthier than baby boomers, the top s10 person of baby boomers were at the age of 35, but the vast majority of millennials still don't own a home, they still don't have much equity. we could be looking at a small sub set of millennials that hav bought the stock and own a lot of the equities.

>> they'll be fine. >> yeah, yeah. us generation xers. >> i'm fine not being noticed as a gen xor dog gone it. what are you looking at? what are you? >> x. >> let's pretend we're all x's. can we do that? >> sure. robert, thank you. >> x's and o's, yeah. coming up, when we return, elon musk, trying to loosen delaware's grip over public companies. we'll talk about that next. and speaking of elon musk, tulane professor, walter isaacson is going to join us to talk tesla, artificial intelligence and so much more. "squawk box" returns after this. webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching

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m ♪ at least three influential shareholders are challenging delaware's traditional dominance over public companies with moves ranging from tripadvisors potential reincorporation into nevada to elon musk's consideration of relocating tesla's incorporation to texas.

joining is charles ellison, the founding director of the wineberg center at the university of delaware. charles, delaware has been the home to the majority of s&p 500 companies for decades and decades. it's done that because it's built up a system that most corporations find much more advan advantageous. what's happening now? >> well, what's happening is you had a ruling or a couple of rulings with which eventually disagree. these are rulings that involve really investor protection, and in a case where an executive, let's say takes an action that a court or maybe others in the public or certainly the investors view as not being particularly investor friendly, they'll object, and delaware's always been considered in this area very smart, very reasonable, very balanced, and very neutral, so the decision is really based on the forward looking nature of the law and --

in some respects that protects investors' interests. sometimes we protect investor interests tru protecting management prerogative. sometimes we protect it through protecting shareholder prerogative. it's a balance. in these instances, particularly the tesla case, mr. musk was disappointed with the ruling. the ruling before that some investors were concerned with, it went the other way, it supported him. it's a balance, and simply because you're disappointed with a ruling doesn't mean you pick up and leave. because frankly, even if you went to another jurisdiction, they could easily reach the same result, and frankly, telling your shareholders oh, we're going to move to another jurisdiction because i don't like the ruling i think is not the smartest thing in the world to do for them, which i think they'd object to, and it doesn't show a great tdeal of trust in your investments, your investors. >> charles, the only thing i

would say is that delaware has benefitted for all of these decades because corporations thought that they were going to get a better deal than they would also. so if a corporation leaves because it doesn't feel like it's getting a better deal and thinks it will get a better deal from nevada and texas, which are pretty actively courting a lot of these companies, okay. i mean, it's the way it shakes out. they're shopping for the best place to go, and that doesn't surprise me. >> well, not necessarily because, remember, to leave the shareholders are to approve it. the shareholders own the company, and to move to texas and nevada, you have to get shareholder approval, and why would a shareholder want to move from a jurisdiction they believe is balanced and favors them in some circumstances, protects them to a jurisdiction where the management argues it doesn't. that's the issue. >> hey, charles, on the merits of the case, i want to make you the judge for a second. at this point in the ball game,

assuming that elon musk comp has been wiped away, and you're the board and you need to get him some form of comp, i think, i would imagine. what would you do? it's clear if you went back to shareholders today and said make the deal you made then, i imagine as much as people would -- who would have voted for it then, hthey might not hae voted for it today, you could claim it's retroactive, what was the phrase, wasted assets to do it now, what do you do? >> full disclosure, i did an amicus brief that decided the case. i guess i'm kind of biased in that regard. i think as the board, you're going to have to kmcome up with something that's reasonable. compensation is, a, for work produced and incentive for future work. this plan was just way out of whack. you don't incentivize someone with stock who already owns 20% of the company. you don't incentivize them with that much stock. that's the problem. i think they're in a real

pickle. i think because of the independence issues that kwou raised about the directors, they're going to have a real tough time coming up with a plan, min fact, that i think wil meet investors -- i think you're going to have to get a new board at some point, you're going to have to refresh the group and bring in some quote, unquote independent people who, in fact, present a counterbalance to mr. musk. that's what a board is supposed to do. it's a sir sicircuit breaker. the board is there to say let's think about this, let's create a plan that incentivizes you and protects the company itself. i don't think it's going to happen, but i think that's necessary in the end and again, as long as they stay there under this tank, if you will, of a critique of their independence from him. and considering the moneys that they've made there, it's a rather interesting critique. >> charles, let me just ask you

about the future of delaware. obviously this is not something that is going to change delaware as having the lion's share of all these companies for quite a while to come. if you're talking about a one-off here or there of companies that are going to pick up and leave, tesla, elon musk probably not the best examples on this, but what you do have are other states that are kouk courting all of these companies. you have it at a time when other places like match and barry diller have basically asked for the delaware prsupreme court to ease on some of the companies. >> i don't think necessarily so, the other states that do it appropriately, they've got to have a really well-established you judicial system. because the business of delaware, have a really strong

bench and bar. i don't think it's necessarily true in the other states where you have fabulous lawyers, but this hasn't been their specialty. to do this krcorrectly you've g to set up a strong business core with people with expertise in the area. that takes money and political will. i don't think the advantages, the tax revenue they're going to get for did this will match the amount it will take and the political force it's going to take to create a real business core. delaware already has it, and i think that once -- it's a very high barrier to entry if you want to use corporate terms, and i think that we do it well. if we were messing up, i could understand that. because someone's dissatisfied with the ruling doesn't mean you pick up and leaf. a better jurisdiction who are give me a better ruling. i think most managers understand that, it's a balance. delaware is balanced. >> charms iles i want to push b

on that, every company that decided to incorporate there, they were thinking this is the best place, this is where i'm going to get the best shake where i have the most to benefit from this em. >> you're absolutely right. sometimes -- >> they're already shopping -- >> you're right, but you know, the other end that was many years ago during the takeover era, and people felt that delaware had a very sound way of looking at takeovers. again, it's a balance. businesses change. the law changes. popular cultures change, and i think there's now a realization that there's a balance between large investors and management, which didn't exist 30 years ago. there weren't those kinds of institutions who basically were sophisticated at large blocks of stock and run the show -- have a voice in the show. the index funds today are the majority basically of investments out there, and they own everything, long-term shareholders, and that's the difference from today and many

years ago. so again, unintended consequences of coming here, but if we didn't handle it fairly, people would move. if we went totally pro management, the investors would insist we move to a state like north dakota, which has very pro shareholder -- that's the difference. >> charles, thank you very much. >> thank you. coming up, the commercial real estate crisis that's looming over banks, diana olick has that story next. speaking of commercials in a different way, which ads resonated with viewers during last night's super bowl? andrew, did you understand the dr. umicstk advertisement? >> they don't need to advertise with me. i love drumsticks so much. they have fresh data. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star!

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your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks. welcome back to "squawk box." the commercial real estate sector has been under pressure for some time thousand, a strategy to extend loans and refinance with banks may not be working as it did during the financial crisis. i want to talk to diana olick who joins us with more on this story. good morning. >> good morning, andrew, it's called extend and pretend, and this was used in the aftermath of the great financial crisis. lenders agreed to keep the loan

as is past maturity. it gave borrowers more time to get new tenants and keep up with their payments and gave lenders an out so they didn't have to take back the keys and sell the properties at fire sale prices. will that work this time? well, analysts at trep say no. why? after the great financial crisis, there was little to no liquidity in the market so lenders had no way to resell. not the case today, trep says sophisticated capital is available and on the sidelines eagerly awaiting distress sales opportunities. now, back during the gfc, the fed was aggressively cutting rates to stimulate the economy and cre transaction activity, not so today. so back then lenders had incentive to work with borrowers that wanted to keep the properties. again, not the case today, and finally, back then, extending loans into a lower rate environment led to increasing property values, not so today in a high rate environment. so we already know that office

is in the biggest trouble, but one surprising sector that could see distress coming soon, hotels, a lot of cnbs lodging loans are maturing this year and next over $30 billion worth. more than a third of those carry interest rates under 5% currently, and while hotel did have a banner 2023, there is concern that the consumer's starting to struggle. businesses are starting to cut expenses, and if both leisure and business travel drop this year, that will hit those property owners hard right when they have to refinance into much higher rates. back to you guys. >> are there specific properties that we should keep our eyes out on or specific cities where it's more trouble than others? >> look, i think we already know san francisco and you look at office and new york and certain metros. i don't know what specific properties, there are definitely those who follow that, but i think you have to look at it as a whole. you have to look at where these opportunities are going to be,

and especially for investors who want to get in at those fire sale prices, are there certain cities that investors might see as more profitable than others. in the south of course the sun belt is still very hot. even when you have distressed properties there, you're going to see investors want to go in and snatch them up. >> okay, diana, thank you. appreciate it. great to see you. up next, it is advertising's biggest stage, we've got a breakdown of rlast night's supe bowl commercials. at nth'sext. in the meantime, check out the futures. s&p futures flat, dow futures off by about 30, nasdaq flat too. stick around, we'll be right back. to make them real.

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last night's super bowl was a big win for the kansas city chiefs and for advertisers. find out which ads got the most viewer engagement online. joining us, edo president and ceo. i mean, taylor, thank you, thank you, god, for taylor and travis. >> the nfl would like to thank taylor swift. >> i saw picture of the roger goodell saying, let's talk about

next year and terms of your deal. exactly. >> for next year. going to be -- did advertisers know it would be the biggest -- probably the big of the event in tv history? $7 million, 30-second spot? >> see the numbers when they come out from nielsen. smart advertisers saw how the season started. able to make the bet this super bowl would be a great one. obviously they got an extra bonus when the chiefs got into the game and therefore knew taylor swift would be there. >> last year, too, and everybody wanted the 49ers. the per sfect storm. >> and a great game. matters. to keep the audience engaged through the whole game is good for business. what we see at edo and we see how consumers engage with the programming and ads, a tight game like that will keep an audience there and will keep them engaged with the outbreaks as well. a win-win for everyone. >> okay. so tell us what you thought were

the highlights for the big game? >> not surprisingly, big new movies, big blockbuster movies perform well in this ta. top performing ad, deadpool 3. advertised. also saw the "wicked" film version of "wicked" not coming out in the thanksgiving. >> engagement, somebody looks it up on the internet? >> searches goes to a website find out more information. >> based on the kind of thing, i want to see that movie. saw that dunking ad, i thought was awesome. i don't know if i'm rushing to the dunkin' website. nothing to do. next time maybe feel better about it? >> brand marketers are always trying to drive that consideration. first awareness, super bowl best place to drive awareness in any media option in the 21st century, consideration and intent also. what you get from a great super bowl creative is all three of those things.

>> because dunkin' buying cachet, right? >> right. >> and dunkkin on our top 5, not top 20. strong ad. nostalgia in a lot of these performing spots. >> one i can't figure out. i love apple, you know. >> yes. >> they sponsored the half time show. even though it says apple, you almost don't know it's apple. at the end put up a qr code, get your three months free, i think, something like that. >> right. >> did that work? >> did that work? >> also a strong logo in the bottom right corner that kept shim erg with the music. >> i saw that. >> had a signature kind of red beam to last year's halftime show and this year the show. >> working for them? when they look a month later say, goodness, we got a huge uptick in folks using this over spotify or -- >> only two years in. studied it for pepsico for the last, however many years they had the halftime show prior to

apple, it paid off economically. a strong economic trade. reported in that $50 million sort of range. >> yeah. >> and we found if you create sort of a, if you equalize for what it could cost to buy that equivalent amount of ads, that halftime sponsor is getting more than $50 million in value in terms of that consumer management. those predicted behaviors that are -- >> they did have the qr code and saw few qr codes this time. >> we did. know stall ja, a.i. themes. nostalgia. products from google and microsoft. we saw more soda, less beer and liquor. and we saw the foreign automakers step in for domestics. >> what about moisturizer? >> cerave? >> right. >> cvs, and sell out? what's going to happen here? >> i like that ad very much.

only an average performer in our data. in terms what it drove. i don't know if michael had enough name recognition for that large an audience. >> yeah. yeah. >> still watch, if i can see it. probably never get old. >> and temu an interesting one. six ads in total from pregame through to postgame. very expensive investment. first-time advertiser last year, performed again well in data this year and last year. >> what the heck is that? people going? >> right. this year pronounced it in the ad. i've been saying tecmu. engages people. what is it? one of the most downloaded apps all of last year according to apple and google, in their

various apps stores. an example where advertising can be affective even if year not seeing at at home as one of our favorite ads. >> still going back to brand engagement. i mean, different brands are looking for different things. if you're an unknown, you get searched most. >> like poppi. did you see that? >> good. i'm not convinced five years from now. >> no poppi? >> no. independent soda company founded by a husband and wife pair in off then, texas. >> yep. >> it's $2 a can, of that soda. margins will be incredible. if you've got now 120 million or more people, thinking i should try a poppi. see what it's like? a good roy. i've tried a poppi. >> they're good. >> i don't remember.

>> like a camucha. >> a little sugar. pro-biotics. >> could use those. >> use some of those? >> especially the morning after the super bowl. >> just in general. you know? i don't -- i think i could. i don't know. i mean, i need something. kevin -- doesn't like the super bowl -- >> great game. >> anything else? 15 seconds. >> summer olympics coming. another truly mainstream event. not all at once. spread out over three weeks. >> nbc -- and -- >> there you go. >> including streaming. >> thanks. >> thank you. coming up on the other side, a big hour ahead. elon musk biographer walter isaacson talking elon, tesla and a.i. later jay clayton on commercial real estate and risks to regional banks and beyond.

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nature's bounty hair growth. clinically shown to help grow thicker, fuller hair with just one capsule a day of advanced hair complex. conquer hair thinning... ...and fall in love with your hair all over again. only from nature's bounty. good morning. futures mixed ahead of the opening bell. s&p ended last week above 5,000. ahead in the next few days, a slew of corporate earnings and economic data.

plus, merger monday. a huge energy deal to tell you about. details straight ahead. and, of course, the takeaways from the big game last night. no, we are not talking about the super bowl. talking about the ad game. who won, who lost and what were the key trends? breaking it down. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. not a lot happening so far beginnings this week. not necessarily a hangover but people were um p late. maybe a food coma. >> food coma. >> something like that. >> lack of sleep.

it's a lack of sleep coma. >> a carb situation. >> carb. >> it's a lot of things. >> walter isaacson is here. mardi gras is happening. did you -- did you have any wine last night, or any alcohol? >> so did i. >> i had none, but -- >> do you know what lavein cookie is? >> no. willing to learn. >> it's the greatest and i ate a lot of them. >> you did? >> yeah. so many it's probably like drinking, frankly. >> i had a lot of football-shaped cookies and a homemade seven layer dip. who doesn't like that? do you think eight could be better? you think you get enough flavor with seven? you can't with six. >> catch-up? what is the other layer to put in? i can't think of any. sour cream, bean dip. >> homemade pre-refried beans and cheese. >> cheese, and -- chives on top,

probably. salsa. anyway, among today's top business stories, those up and watching this morning, shale producer diamondback energy saying it's going to buy permian basin oil and gas company endeavor energy partners in a cash and stock deal valued at about $26 billion including debt, endeavor the largest user of permian tart of texas and new mexico. the new company would become third largest oil and gas producer in the region behind exxon/mobil and chevron, if it goes through. and jeff bezos. a statement filed with federal regulators indicates bezos sold merely 12 million amazon shares worth more than $2 billion last wednesday and thursday. the stock came in five blocks between about 1 and 3 million shares. u.s. senate voting to move forward with a $95 billion aid

package for ukraine, israel and taiwan. super bowl sunday, passed with 67 votes in favor. it is one of the last procedural hurdles behind, before a final vote. support from both sides of the aisle a good sign of final passage. although nothing is certain. even in washington. and uncertainty what the house would do with the bill. get back to the browder markets. mike santoli joins us now to tell us why the bull/bear debate is trapped in the '90s? >> not just fashion coming back. bullses, okay, maybe a rerun of soft landing of 1995. bears last week drawing parallels to '99 and overheated tech-led market. some parallels. one-year s&p 500 actually has taken on a pretty steep angle of this. you can see here. remember, above 4,800, a breakout from a basically two-year range.

4,800 previous high back two years. not like we piled on gains in a big way over multiple years, but definitely getting just a little overheated. is some of the trend lines back to october '22 low would say maybe time for a rest. somewhere between 5,000, 5,100. 1999 talk, completely overstated. we haven't had the same velocity or magnitude of gains in the nasdaq. look at momentum etf. stocks within the s&p 500 demonstrating highest momentum. people are focused on there. a almost vertical claim you can imagine, ind nvi nvidia other t stocks like that. other moves previous in the cycle. a five-year chart. overdone. comes back a little. not even as high as we were back a couple years ago with the late 2021, let's say pop 1995 xa example. perfect soft landing, economy

slows but doesn't top. resumed acceleration. productivity boom, tech boom alongside it. this is from fidelity. the current market from the low in october 2022 compared with the mid-cycle slowdowns of mid-90s and mid-2010s. a stealth slowdown, keep in mind, quasi-in industry recession as well. tracking at least in terms of market behavior though stocks residential at cheap in '95 and other differences. interesting. where the split in the debate is now sitting. >> all right. i remember all of that. >> yes. >> and i don't like the end of the '90s that much. >> right. >> but some day we'll be back there. maybe japan will actually be back some day, too. >> yeah. from '89. exactly. one thing to keep in mind, the nasdaq 100, up 8% from previous high over two years ago. in the two years leading up to

the peak in 2000, up 150%. not as if we have as much air under this market as then. in that respect, anyway. >> mike, thank you. see you. a u.s. judge ordered elon musk to testify in an s.e.c. investigation into hins 2022 purchase of twitter. that ruling coming over the weekend. the s.e.c. investigating whether musk or anyone else committed securities fraud as he began buying stock in twitter ahead of the social media company. joining us to talk about this and all things musk, musk biographer walter isaacson also a cnbc contributor. should we start with the s.e.c. case or wrap it into the delaware case where the judge -- >> incoming missiles from all sides. >> yeah. >> one question is, he feels, coordinated. that the whole administration, everybody's, coming at him for political reasons. i don't think that's true. i don't think there's some

top-down biden administration, let's do this and this, but i do think you've got regulators and in all sorts of places that generally feel, hey, i can do well by taking on musk. they tend to not be politically aligned with him. they're part of bureaucracies, and he's got a lot ofincoming missiles. this s.e.c. one is basically about how well did he report what he started buying twitter shares back in 2022, and, you know what? it wasn't as if he had the world's greatest reporting standards saying, i've reached this percentage. >> right. all along said a passive investors with some of those things. >> this is musk. i mine, i was there. it's chronicled in the book day-by-day. there being a passive investor. suddenly flying to hawaii to borrow larry ellison's -- gets mad at the other -- changes his

mind. changes his mind four, five times. see it over a weekend both in hawaii and up in vancouver. when the s.e.c. says were you a passive investor or not? you know -- you have -- >> he saw reason he could have very well have been well intentioned and truthful when making those statements on it? >> also true that if you've watched him he can change his mind. >> if you're elon musk you have an ev, you know -- you invite all the ev makers -- and -- >> yeah. invite tesla. >> the most absurd ludicrous thing. there's no way to explain that. >> it really got him mad and he's still mad. >> how do you explain it? >> especially when biden -- >> i'm not saying it's right. >> no, but -- >> but then -- >> okay. >> okay. twitter was a -- a de facto arm of the biden administration and

the dnc. suddenly he comes in and totally pulls the rug out from all the liberals that loved having their own news arm. that's not going to make people happy either. i know you don't think that's true. >> i don't think that's totally true. >> why not? you couldn't say anything. >> i'm saying the old twitter did a whole lot of being politically correct, and woke in stopping certain types of speech. >> it could have used -- >> and -- >> agree totally, but i don't know that -- >> tops and everything else. >> right. and you saw that in many newspapers. you saw that, maybe, even on this network some and it wasn't because you were wholly owned by the dnc. it's because we kept you narrow. the things we got to debate. >> i want to go back, though, to some of the delaware stuff. i'm curious what you think of the compensation situation? >> i find that baffling.

i mean, you have quoted in my book when they give out that compensation package saying, this is a real stretch. if he can pull this off it will amaze people. if he can get through, i think, though, a five -- there were -- >> five or six targets. both on market cap, more importantly, i argue, operationally. >> right. how much somebody could put out. how much revenues, market cap. had to go through all of these -- >> and five years, too. >> five years? and he gets nothing except if he goes to these events and says, okay. i take the bet. 2017 going into 2018. the whole place seems to be going bankrupt. people say, no way, it seems, he will get to these goals. he takes it. he does it. they pay him. i cannot imagine how a delaware

chancellery judge can say, do-over. you don't get the money. >> what's the next step? >> go to the delaware supreme court i assume and seen it in the "wall street journal" today. i assume tesla and other companies like it will pull out of delaware, because you can't trust it now. and you see nevada making a bid saying -- >> and texas. >> and texas. >> nevada. >> nevada and -- >> nevada. >> joe has a thing about pronunciation of nevada. >> ask anyone from there. >> how do you pronounce my home state? >> where? >> louisiana. >> missouri. illinois. >> but getting back it. >> right. >> i tried to be objective in my book. i can see why people are furious at him but i can't see how the take the guy's compensation five years after granted and say, oh, no. the deal that 75% of

stockholders made, just revoke that and take the money away. >> it's bizarre. even the twitter and things along the way. i mean, it's crazy how it's all caught up in -- >> actually i think -- more than 200 pages, i read, of course, it was -- i don't want to go too far here but somewhat politically tandenshous. does the law say that -- >> to me, at least. i don't know if you agree. >> and the board on -- >> overwhelming. look through that decision they're claiming that independent board isn't so independent, which by the way -- >> may very well be true. >> it not be as independent and may not have negotiated as hard as they should have. i think we could probably all agree that that's the case. having said that, there's an idea because they were this independent board and endorsed it that the shareholders agreed to the deal, because they --

because they endorsed it, meaning misrepresent -- artgumet misrepresented itself being independent. >> no major share -- >> i agree. >> sayinging look at that deal. >> what the judge is going to say. >> the deal book column of the "new york times" would have it exactly right, and they say here's how we voted. even if there was some, you know -- non-independence on the board, you can go in then and say, wait a minute. this doesn't smell right. but to go in after he's accomplished almost every single one of those goals, gotten the money and then say, no, no. we think five years ago was wrong. ridiculous. >> you think the delaware supreme court would -- overrule it? >> i think it should. i'm not a great predictor of

supreme courts in states, but i can't imagine that delaware supreme court wouldn't overrule it. by the way, it's going to hurt delaware if it doesn't, because people will say. wait, wait. you mean five years after something happens, eight years after something happens you'll go back and undo it? >> my other question. if elon thinks this is coordinated coming from top-down, does he think his problems will go away if biden loses and donald trump wins? >> biden loses now as he feels joe said, it begins with having all the ev makers to the white house and saying to mary barra, you're leading the way in evs and made like 26 and they weren't even making them at the moment he's made 1.2 million that year? i think he feels there's just a concerted effort to get him. i don't think he likes donald trump either and has been

flailing around from the desantis, bobby kennedy jr. -- it's -- i think he feels confused about this election as do, maybe, some other people. >> what do you think does happen with the s.e.c.? do you think that does change in a different administration or proceeds? >> s.e.c. -- look, opposite of conspiracy theorists who think that there's people with, puppet strings that make the agencies do what they want. i don't think merrick garland had puppet strings on him when he did what he wanted. i think the s.e.c. is an independent agency. i think it believed what it said, but surely if there's a new administration, different people in the s.e.c. and not the type of people that come in into an administration like this searching for monsters to destroy. >> all right.

walter, thank you for enlightening us, because this all seems to dominate headlines again and again. >> well, always fun to be with you all. >> good to see you. coming up other side of this, s.e.c. chairman jay clayton joining us to talk banks specifically the pressure on new york community bank. next, a crowd attacks and sets fire to a google waymo self-driving car, look at this in san francisco. full video and talk about this bizarre story next. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk" and this is cnbc. move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon.

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welcome back to "squawk box." setting fire to a self-driving car in the bay area. deirdre bosa joins us with a bizarre and shocking story. >> yeah. shocking footage to show you from an eyewitness there. around 9:00 p.m. saturday night an a lunar new year celebration in chinatown not far from the financial district. you ski at some point someone hitting a window with a hammer. a fully awe taught miss vehicle. some in the crowd in shock looking on, others cheering the

vandalizers on. someone broke through the window, threw a firecracker. the most devastating, destructive attack on an autonomous vehicle in the u.s. yet but not the first. the first fully driverless cars rolled out across the city from waymo and cruz mostly. a self-driving car dragged a pedestrian last year approximately 20 feet. throwed a suspension of its permit ultimately stopped robotaxiselves across the entire country. waymo, of course, owned by google parent alphabet, let reported incidents and continued to operate here, but clearly not without its own issues. last week a driverless waymo car clyde wade cyclist causing minor injuries. that's being reviewed by the

state's auto regulator. i wanted to point out fully driverless cars are such a common site here in the bay area. even my kids think it's completely normal. these questions. they grow about their future viability, especially after incidents like the blaze over the weekend. promise safer roads, but getting there isn't so clear-cut. not just civilians have issues with it but lawmakers, public agencies like the fire department sorted out in realtime as he test on the roads. >> wow. so -- i mean, do you think anyone's ever going to want to go in these things again now, given what just happened? >> it's a good question. i've ridden in both a waymo and cruz. a really good experience from waymo. actually boring. went through the tenderloin district, like the toughest neighborhood to navigate here in san francisco and if you think about it. here's the question. yes. these vandalizations could happen.

not the first time as well. another incident people took a hammer to i believe a cruz car, but you don't have the driver in it and the waymo car drives safely. would would you rather put your kids? in a car with a stranger or a self-driving vehicle, if it gets figured out but it raises the stakes. i don't know. i can't answer that question. >> deirdre bosa, thank you. great to see you. coming up, a super bowl ad r wrap. not a song. talking wrapping up what happened. including a big presence from hollywood. first, though, reminders ahead to the break, get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app. we're coming right back. meets bold new thinking. ( ♪♪ ) partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies,

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welcome back to "squawk

box." there's the futures. nasdaq trading higher. s&p unchanged, but closed above 5,000 last friday. meantime, president biden's re-election campaign launching an official tiktok account. noteworthy, of course, because tiktok currently banned on most government devices. campaign advisers telling nbc news part of an effort to meet voters where they are. of course, this is a question mark, they're banned on so many of these devices. who exactly is posting this? the devices -- secretary of defense lloyd austin hospitalized at walter reed for a bladder issue. about 5:00 p.m. transferred functions and duties to his deputy secretary kathleen hicks. joint chiefs notified of this ish i and the white house. the super bowl isn't just the most watched sporting event of the year. it includes the most viewed ads.

julia boorstin joins us with a look at big trends from last night. early morning for you. good morning! >> it is, after a very exciting game last night. it went into overtime. the seventh longest game in history of the nfl. super bowl ratings could be a record after that big game. hottest ad trend was not just celebrity-driven ads, spots with multiple celebrities including a dunkin' addie j. lo, ben affleck, beyonce verizon and arnold schwarzenegger and danny devito. crowdstrike showing value and google, new ad technologies. beyonce showed avatar in body armor and poked fun at a.i. with funny a.i.-created videos. chinese e-tailer temu ran through spots and several religious ads including from for

mark wahlberg for a catholic meditation ad and a spot for robert kennedy jr. in the style of his uncle's jfk ad tweeting an apology the ad was created by a super pac without involvement from his campaign. and while there was surprise big spenders like homes.com on three spots, the biggest winner may have been advertisers who thought they were buying post game ads and ended up in the valuable overtime. my personal favorite was the cat ad for the mayonnaise. which was your favorite? >> what do you think? joe's the cave man. >> early on, julia. on the pregame, actually interviewing on-site the geico caveman. as usual, said the wrong thing. he's very sensitive about being referred to as a caveman and sy sygma -- stigmatizing cavemen.

>> and the ad. >> tom brady. mentioned j.lo. >> and the -- >> awesome. >> very effective. >> uh-huh. >> yep. >> you like drum sticks? did you see -- >> system talking about these ads. >> see dr. drum stick? >> i did. one on the airplane. the real question's going to be what are the ratings we'll see, when announced later by nielsen. last year record $115 million. t $115 billion. h i thought this was hilarious. and more viewers you get. that over time what a surprise win for all of those advertisers in the postgame slot. >> yeah. and it's hard to pick winners when each of these brands and each of these companies has a

different goal. i mean, kevin on earlier talk be how it's -- they measure who goes and searches on the internet for these things afterwards. some other brands boosting cachet are their brand. your brand, nobody heard of, makes sense. measurable item you're looking for, but other places, the only place you can get that many eyeballs togetherants exactly. the best place for brand advertising. only place really guaranteed people aren't skipping through ads is sports. of course, news. >> there you go. all right. julia, thank you very much. coming up, we're going to talk to former s.e.c. chairman jay clayton. joining us for a wide-ranging conversation you don't want to miss. reminder -- head to a break, listen or watch us, view us live right this second on the cnbc app. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. a live shot of new york's

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box." there's the futures looking at with the dow peeking in, taking it on the chin at almost 60 points. nasdaq turned negative. was up six, seven points now down a dollar and s&p down too. bitcoin a rally overt weekend. pulling back a little this morning just below 48,000. new retail data out. steve liesman has the numbers. hi, steve. >> good morning, becky. yeah. after a strong holiday shopping season looks like consumers took a little break in january. cnbc nrf retail monitor using credit card date ta from affinity solutions registered decline. retail and gas, down 0.2% after 0.4 gain in december and 0.7 in november. year over year declined 2.3 versus 3.1 in december. restaurants down a little 04.

see why in a second. 0.2% in december. year over year increasing. right in the center of the holiday season was good. could challenge, we don't know. gdp forecast this quarter around 3%. especially if the weakness is repeated in february. how we got to the negative number. gas stations sales falling minus 1.3%. i'll tell you sometimes you get a decline one no in gas sales and discretionary stuff goes up the next month. right now furniture and home furnishes down 1%. decline in food service and places that could have been hurt by bad weather this month. clothing and accessories, above, retailers, internet, up, and electronics appliances a good month. up 1.3%. see how the cnbc retail monitor tracked with government data. forecasted for 0.2% increase. autos and gas imported by the

census for january thursday. depending when january inflation numbers come in tomorrow, tune in at 8:30. real consumer spending flat or negative forjanuary. see beginning of the slowdown, long been expected, but hasn't yet arrived. as you know, becky. >> yeah. that, i think, is the big question. i mean, as long as the consumer hangs in there, as long as this consumer is strong i don't know many people who think we can head into recession. i guess 70% of the u.s. economy's consumer driven. >> it's a big chunk. look, let's not get too carried away 0.2 decline. remember, looking at for the quarter, reason why some gdp forecasters are high, raised to the level of december and if you continue it more or less in january, it's still pretty strong. we're not going to really, you

know, raise the probability of recession based on one month of january, but it is interesting they took a bit of a break in total in spending. i'm waiting to see, becky, see if some of those housing-related sectors, furniture home, building materials, if they start to come back. loosening in real estate sector. a laggard. interesting to see retail do quite as well as it's done with all of those home sector it's l sectors lagging behind. >> steve, thinking look at data and looking for the next thing to happen. the last few things that happened, shocked the consumer. something we hadn't been anticipating. whether covid, the financial crisis that start the somewhere else. i mean, we can watch the consumer. a great indicator but the consumer strength and confidence can drop incredibly quickly if there's an external event. >> i think that's right. and i think, you know, look at

employment. which has been, as you know, stronger than many expected. wage gains pretty decent. in fact, higher than the street relatively was comfortable with. you're right the way you frame the question as well, because it takes a shock in order to derail the economy. so far it's interesting to me, obviously. you have to really be concerned about the flare-ups in the middle east. it is not caused the kind of shock that perhaps other events, say 10, 20 years ago, might have caused -- talked issue so much of our energy comes both from the united states and from north america. so it's disconnected a bit from what's happening out there. it can be replaced. one aspect. you do have some falloff this year, as you know, in federal spending. it's been very elevated. it will end up being, many believe, a drag this year. that could have some impact, but you're right to look at a shock, which is to say, becky, you've

got to screw it up for it to go wrong. >> okay, steve. thank you. >> pleasure. coming up, speak with former s.e.c. chair jay clayton on role of regulators and stress on the banking system and much more. this stems from the trouble seen at new york community bancorp. that stock down 50% in the last > ayweeks. >>st tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here.

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welcome back to "squawk box." shares of new york community bancorp begin the week in the green. shot up close to 17% friday after top executives exposed they bought stock in the lender. shares still cut in half over the last week and a half following a surprise loss and dividend cut from nycb. last week newly appointed executive chair saying reduce the work -- work, rather, i should say, reducing exposure to travel commercial real estate.

joining us to do talk about this and so many other things, elon musk and many other things jay clayton here. former s.e.c. chairman and cnbc contributor. start, though, there, which is, how concerned should the market be about banks broadly speaking, this bank in particular? >> okay. going back to market regulation. >> yep. >> to avoid systemic risk. look at it in three ways. sort of broad systemic risk, f stock, oversight counsel, is the difficulty in commercial real estate going to transmits to the rest of the economy? circa 2008. people are looking at that. >> yep. >> next level down, commercial real estate stress in the banking ector. what's going to happen to individual banks? >> yep. >> there are problems. >> okay. >> it's not -- and it's not at the top, not top of the stack. it's much more in the $1 the 1 , 10 million banks outside pror

po proportion s.e.c. and enough hedging and adjusting so you don't have the shock that transmits through the system. that's how you look at it. we will continue to have problems if rates stay where they are and at a number of smaller banks. >> lots of debates, about a year ago now, maybe more, about whether the government really was guaranteed deposits? whether this implied guarantee was explicit, implicit, what was really happening and whether numbers needed to be higher, if, in fact, the bank -- do you have a view about that today? >> i think to be -- maybe i'm getting out over my skis. i'm not a regulator. i think the implied guarantee is it there for excess deposits in the context of isolated stresses. i believe it's still there. >> okay. switch topics then. elon musk. >> uh-huh. >> we were just talking to walter isaacson about it before. what do you make about what's

happened in delaware with that decision? what would you have done? by the way, you have been at odds with elon musk over the years. >> uh-huh. >> and what do you think's going to happen to delaware as a result of that decision? start with the decision itself. >> okay. why is delaware the home for many corporations? because it's predictable and when you look at things in hindsight and almost all court actions are looking at things in hindsight, delaware generally doesn't second guess. they don't second guess on two levels. >> just d. that's really the issue. if the substance is right, ought to be fine. substance turns out with hindsight not to be right, you look at whether you followed a good process. some could criticize this decision as saying, because the process was flawed, it really doesn't matter whether the substance was right or not. and those directors, i think those directors honestly believed that they were making a good bet with shareholder equity.

>> here's my question to you, though. part of the argument that the judge made effectively, the process was problematic because the director themselves were not independent and, therefore, their endorsement effectively, and negotiation of this deal, was not independent and, therefore, the proclamation this was a good deal, which they told shareholders, misrepresented something and, therefore, shareholders were voting with bad information. that's basically -- >> a very good description. >> the way they've described it. okay? >> yeah. >> i have a view, which is that the public understood this board was not as independent as maybe you'd like it to be. if that's true, where the s.e.c.? >> whether the board is as independent? >> i mean, if the board -- if this is really not an independent board if that is actually at the crux of the matter here, where was the s.e.c. five years ago?

you were there. >> uh-huh. >> to say, forget about the compensation package. by the way, where were exchanges, or was was whoever was supposed to be, you know, minding the store, to say this board is not independent and therefore this is a problem and it needs to be fixed? >> that's a, an interesting question. s.e.c. is largely a disclosure agency. were these people honest disclosing whether they were independent or not would be a question for the s.e.c. >> judges decided they were not honest. >> not honest in describes their relationship around this, what i would say is compensation decision. in terms of -- >> more broadly, she's making the argument she doesn't believe they were ever independent. i'm not saying agree. just saying what it is. >> you have to have a fully independent audit committee. the first question. whether the board, each member independent for new york stock

exchange, or nasdaq exchange provisions may be different from the judge's view whether independent in making this type of decision. >> what happens now? >> what happens now? >> yeah. >> that is the question. first of all on appeal. right? if you're the director, you have to appeal this. >> pressure on this, on, at the appellate level on them in delaware to say we have to reverse this or every company's going to nevada, texas, wherever they're going? >> to be non-technical about it, the question will be, does that process invalidate good substance, the substance originally of the decision was good. right? if substance was bad. supreme court says substance and process bad -- shareholders voted on it. look, you know, was it an outsized, a unique pay package and all of the -- >> at the time seemed nearly

impossible. >> nearly impossible. did shareholders ben fefit from remarkable rise? yes, they did. where are you going to go? validate the decision and find way to post-compensate, anywher isn't going to be close, or are you going to say, terrible process, but on balance, the substance of the decision was right. that will be the question going forward. >> what are you thinking? >> i can see something spinning in your head there. >> you know, ever since the flamethrower, i always think elon's giving the thumbs up. think how much -- for him to -- how did he even have so much confidence to think that he would -- that the shares -- the price would grow into where he would be compensated like that? i don't hold it against the board. >> he already had enough stock

to be motivated. >> that is the argument that she proffers, which is that all of the stock was on the table anyway. >> my glib response is, should he have sold it before he got the pay package? i don't know. i mean, these -- judging with hindsight, you've got to be really, really careful. that's why delaware has lasted so long. process protects judgments from 20/20 hindsight, and substance is important. >> jay, it's nice to see you, sir. >> good to see you. >> thank you for helping us through these things. we're trying to all figure it out, and i don't think anyone else knows the answer yet. what else? who's going to be the democratic nominee? >> oh, gosh, i was afraid you'd ask me that. i've been saying for some time i don't think it will be biden. >> gavin newsom? he's a good-looking dude. his hair and everything. >> there's a stronger bench than people think. there are -- >> there is? >> yes.

>> i think it's the worst bench in the history of the world. who? >> you don't know how someone plays until you put them on the field. >> colorado guy? publicist guy? pennsylvania governor? >> shapiro is good, strong. people like him. >> what did you think of trump's comments this weekend about nato? >> don't take him literally, take him seriously. >> i didn't ask you. i asked the gentleman who used to work for him. >> we already talked about it. do you even think about what he said? >> what do you think, jay? >> i'm glad -- >> look, i'll say -- >> here's what i will say. the issue is on the table. the issue of how much do nato countries spend is on the table. does former president trump put things on the table in a conventional way always? no. but the issue -- my point is the issue gets on the table. >> straight up, do you think it's dangerous for him to say the things he says?

>> look, it's -- when you have a bully pulpit, there's always risk in what you say, so -- >> no, no, no. that's not what i'm saying. come on. i'm saying, the way he said what he said, if you are sitting, you know, and running a country, a nato country, and you hear that, do you think that's a positive or a negative for the world and for the united states? straight up. you used to work for him. by the way, we have had a lot of people who have worked for him who have come out quite publicly and said that he is dangerous and that it's dangerous for him to be in the white house. you worked for him. you may have a different view about that. but then espouse the view. and the reason i'm asking, by the way, i was not going to put you on the spot on this. i am only because if you're going to opine on whether you think that biden's age is whatever it is, which is fair, totally fair thing to do, but given that you worked in the trump administration and there's a political view here, then i

want to hear the other side of it. >> i don't know that those two are related, but i'll answer your question the way you just framed it, which is, depending on where you sit, you can feel very strongly about that. if you are a nato leader, you're very upset about that comment. if you're a person -- jamie dimon made this point so, so eloquently in davos. if you're a person in middle america who says, why am i sending money over there? you're not upset about it. you're kind of like, okay, let's see what they're going to do. where you sit has a great deal to -- >> i'm asking you where you sit. you. >> would i articulate things that way? no. but that's not me. >> but would that cause you to -- >> i'm asking you whether you would support somebody who says things like this. >> who's the opponent? >> biden. >> yeah. if i had to decide today -- >> binary. >> yeah.

binary. >> simple. most people -- >> quite simple for you. >> i know you can't understand. i don't think it's close to have someone who basically -- >> i know you don't. >> -- in two years, may not know where he is or what's around him. >> i know that's your view. >> and you got a bloviating egomaniac narcissist who says whatever the heck son his mind, but you've got a thousand similar comments. >> let jay comment. >> let me make a very positive comment here. we have until november to explore these issues. that is what is great about america. >> oh, goody. >> you got to be talking about it for a while. ianyo>> wt u to rank the things he said in order of hair on fire. how about the "i could shoot someone"? not only our customers but those who matter most to them. just like our company does for us.

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joining us now on the markets, katherine kaminsky. make it kind of quick here, we're deciding who to vote for in november. i won't ask you that. is the market fairly valued right here? >> well, we're looking at right now the technical signals are finally in the soft landing

camp, and this has been two years where we have been in disagreement, so i think, in that sense, there is some positive direction in how the market is really finally seeing that there's a good chance we could have a soft landing, but of course, that makes everybody nervous, because there's always things that could be a problem. the higher for longer narrative is an issue, and also, just deteriorating -- if we have deteriorating financial conditions. so, watching inflation this week is goingto be important. >> so, inflation is still important. have you taken some of the early rate cuts or a couple of them off the table? are you still bullish, even though it might not be as great as we thought? >> that's right. we're still bullish, but there is some -- i think the market really got ahead of itself at the beginning of the year. it was the end of the hiking cycle, so everyone was ready for a steepener, ready for cuts right away. you're seeing a little bit of pullback, particularly in pricing on the short end of the curves. you're seeing that, you know, there's a little pressure in yields going upwards for shorter

term rates, which suggests that people are realizing that cuts could take a little longer than they think, and that's finally in the data. >> we'll have you back, get more color on exactly what you're thinking. we got the gist of it. appreciate seeing you this morning on this, the day after, which was a movie. we were just talking about the super bowl. tired, tired. >> good-bye. time for "squawk on the street." >> join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street's" up right now. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. coming off our first s&p 5,000 close, up 14 of 15 weeks. key earnings all in the next few days. our road map begins with that super bowl comeback, the chiefs becomin