again on the state of the office. what have you got? >> the stock's hit new 52-week high and i'll ride it for a little bit. >> jimmy? >> nxp semiconductor. >> joey? >> "the exchange" starts right now. and i'm brian sullivan in for kelly once again and here's what's ahead. the consumer is not cracking yet and one of our analysts says a setup of retail earnings may be tougher nonetheless, she'll tell you why and what group can keep the retail party on and big money on big ads, but the big winner may have been a different group. we'll explain, andwe've got the story, reaction and the trade on three more names. two our trader likes and one, they say avoid because of too much angst around the name and all of that is ahead across the

hour and we'll begin with your money and it keeps going up, up, up and more records across the board. again at a record high and you go up and it's a new record because math. all of the major averages are higher led by semiconductors and it's not just nvidia, look at this. >> the monster run for arm holdings just continues. arm holdings is up 20% and it was higher earlier, okay? arm holdings and semiconductors and based in the uk and it has now doubled in value in less than a week. it's added 80 billion in market cap in three or four days and it's bigger than applied materials and texas instruments, lam research and micron. also check out the regional banks after last week's volatility that carry the regional bank index and up about 2% today. new york community bank which is really the source of much of that volatilityup more than 1% in today's session and the regional bank is calm than the rest of the markets and here's a

sully side up. american consumers are feeling optimistic about the overall financial outlooks and they spent less in january and probably just a holiday hangover, let's be honest and senior economics reporter steve liesman joining us with more on the consumer. >> what do you know about hangovers, sully. you don't know much about that today? not today. the whole family got sick over the super bowl. >> sorry about that. after a strong holiday shopping season consumers took a break in january with the cnbc and the retail monitor and we used credit card data from affinity solutions and it registered a modest decline. here are the numbers, retail sales, ex auto and gas, down 0.2 versus 0.4 in december and a strong 0.7 in december, and core retail, that takes out restaurants a little bit better, pretty much flat versus 0.2 in

december and the year over year was up a little bit 3.2 versus 3.4 and the january decline follows three strong months right in the heart of the holiday season and it could challenge some of the growth forecast out there over 3% for the quarter especially if the weakness is repeated in february. furniture and home furnishings, can't find its legs with what's going on in the real estate market down 1%. food service and drinking down 0.7 and could have been hurt by weather and the internet was up 0.7 and electronic and appliances having a good month in january. meanwhile, the new york fed survey finding a year ahead of expectations fell for all goods tracked in the survey and the second time in three months that's happened and that suggests consumers can see deflation, sorry, continuing. the year over year was unchanged at 3% and held up, perhaps by

services. 3, to 2.4 and the five-year unchanged at 2.5% and a pretty good number for the fed there and the unemployment expectations remain low and so is the concern of losing one's job. consumers are more confident in their abilities to pay their debt and 76.5% to be precise of the respondents expect to be better off financially a year from now and that's the highest since september 2021. so pretty good numbers there, brian. >> you work for a channel called cnbc and we are told on this channel we occasionally talk about stocks and the wealth effect going back in history, how much does a stock market that's up, even if it's money you can't pull out. your 401(k), college savings and it's not money you're going to sell, whatever, but even knowing it's there and going up, i have to imagine it inflates people's

mood. you know, i read a lot of studies on this, brian, and i've heard numbers like 5 cents on the dollar and 2 cents is psychological and 3 cents is real. in other words, you might actually take some of those stocks and spend two or three cents of it and you might spend a little bit more because psychologically you feel weightier. i don't suspect people are stupid in the sense that they see what's happening in the portfolio and they say oh, let's go out and spend and probably more risk averse and that's what behavioral economics show and it's a modest number, but it is there and when these gains accumulate like this, you can expect there to be some impact on the retail side. >> yeah. five cents and the 3 cents and that's the real money and either way, it's a good consumer numbers and thank you very much. >> as steve just said should be good news for retailers, but your next guest says it may still be a rough road ahead at least for some. here to tell you why and what

group would be holding up better in the short term is alex streeten equity director at morgan stanley. welcome, by the way. you have a similar take on the consumer? >> look, i think his view on the consumer is correct in terms of the stronger holiday season and i saw that on my end and it came in better that feared and the third quarter came in better than feared and they rallied 20% in the year end and they've given up that, and we did see weakening? january in the data we monitor though that appears to be mostly weather driven and we see the uptick in february. the tough thing, i will say, is that we are facing some of the hardest traffic. so it may mean we're having retailers facing a weaker fourth quarter exit rate as well as our first quarter entry rate which is why we're more cautious here. >> yeah and cautious on some,

less cautious on the other, and i'm just going to flip the notes over because just going back in my history and doing this a long time, alex, i would say luxury tends to hold up better because rich people. >> sure. so the way we think about who can hold in better that earnings season, i mean, for me, there are two things we're focused on and it's positioning where the stocks hit and also, where can they guide the year? right now, as i mentioned the stocks are high and very bullish and then on the other end, we're a little bit worried about the guidance in terms of this weaker demand i mentioned as well as recent precedent. i think for us, one of the ones that fits the narrative you mention side lululemon. we're pretty positive there and recent frequency data and the pressure that we've seen is overblown any id it can guide t

year earlier than expected and i don't cover luxury, per se and i do cover higher understand businesses and it appears to remain the case through holiday. >> on the other end of that, as well. you hear so much about the discounters and the ross stores and the tj maxxes of the world and the treasure hunt mentalities that people love going in, and you're nodding your head. you go in because you don't know what they're going to happen and you're always working to find the gem and even in a good economy like we have because people have more money to spend? >> yeah. so you bring up an interesting point. what we've seen in the off pricers in the last couple of years is more so underperformance versus history and the typical algorithm while the low-income consumer has been under low pressure. t.j. is that. we have tj maxx at levels above

pre-covid and that is incredibly unique in my space and while that's the case and it trades at a rich valuation and it's been rewarded in the right way, but it is also a part of why we like ross a lot in the group and it's preferred and very consistent and it has a margin ongoing capture, and tj is already there. ross has still more to go through the pre-covid level and it's premium to the historical valuation in the off-price group and as the low-income consumer isn't worsening and that's a tailwind. >> as we're approaching this quarter where we're fearful and the risk reward is to the downside and i do think off-price can be a safe haven as they typically give conservative guidance and as they have the consumer tailwind. >> as opposed to a gap and a macy's which proceed very

cautiously on. >> yeah, look. names like gap, a macy's, a victoria's. you mentioned a couple of them and they've enjoyed massive rallies and i would call it a disproportionate relative to the rest of the group and all of the lower quality names have had outsized gains in the last three months and with these three in particular and maybe i would start with gap and victoria's. investor sentiment has gotten ahead of themselves because we haven't had whole evidence of turnaround success or inflexion duration. so what i fear is that it can be punished on a guide that is in line and relatively bullish or more optimistic sentiment is perhaps overblown and macy's, of course, is a little bit different and though there is compelling, valuation out there i've certainly supported that name and while they might do it on the call and while that's the case i think it hurts them a

little bit, and i will say it was tough to find a lot of great opportunities to be more negative this earnings season because we do have a favorable front half for many of these names. >> alex stratton, morgan stanley equity analyst, lululemon, you have ross stores and be careful with gap, victoria's secret and macy's. alex, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. coming up, so the kansas city chiefs won another super bowl, but whose commercial won the hearts and minds of you, the audience? we'll run through the numbers and talk to one ad exec about the buzziest spot. plus, we're firmly above 5,000 on the s&p 500, but your next guest sees a leadership change looming. the names he expects to outperform the days and weeks and months ahead. "the exchange" is back right after this. ♪ ♪ this is "the exchange" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "the exchange." advertisers scoring big as last night's super bowl went into overtime and it could go down as the most watched ever. brands leaned heavily on celebrity endorsements. dunkin' donuts had ben affleck, j. lo, ben affleck and matt damon and beyonce and for the second year in a row the average cost for a 30-second spot was roughly $7 million, but it may have been the brands that spent

less that won big. julia boorstin and martin. ceo mark douglas joining us, what does that mean? the brands that spent less might have won more. >> i'm not sure exactly what that's referring to, but i would say that there were a number of advertisers who bought ads that they thought were going to be for the post game. they were going to be for after the game went over and because the game went into overtime they ended up winning out there, but it is also interesting to look at how some of these brands had spent a fortune on celebrities are seeing that pay off and that we're talking about it now and celebrities were a key theme in this year's game, and then you have a brand lname teemu. their ad itself was memorable in that the jingle was a little sticky and my kids were humming it afterwards, but the ad itself was not that exciting compared

to some of the other ones, at least, i thought, but people found it engaging and there were stats that people went online and looked up what teemu was to try to learn more. >> i think that was the idea. if you bought an ad on the cheap expecting you were getting an ad for whatever show was on cbs after the game, but it went into overtime you paid for, i think, the show is called tracker. you paid for tracker and you got mahomes. that's a win. >> yeah. lucky day for those brands, but the game was great and i thought the ads that did the best were the ones where less was more. in other words, people don't want an ad that's trying to compete with the halftime show and that's like a big beyonce ad. i think they liked the ones that are just pure funny and for me that was the dunkin ad with

jenniferive lopez. >> i have to correct you. it was the dunkings. >> see? if i know that it worked. >> exactly. exactly. and tom brady scored twice because then he was in another ad for bet mgm. i think of that as the best performance tv ad because, i mean, it was just funny that tom brady couldn't get -- was not allowed access to it and the entire ad was structured around it and you have to see that ad. >> we have a vince vaughn. my wife was very happy, my wife was, like, oh, vince vaughn. in a weird way he's famous for "swingers" which took place largely about half way in las vegas. i thought that was a good one. julie, just as a fan and just as a viewer, any that stuck out to you? >> my personal favorite was the one for hellmann's mayonnaise

starting kate mackinnon with the cat and it had a lot of jokes. >> and the verizon ad. >> the talking cat. i love a talking cat. you can't get better than a talking cat. i thought the pickle ball playing babies were pretty fun, too, but i actually think that the verizon ad for beyonce was great. it was a lot. you're right, mark, it was a lot, but everyone in the room stopped and paid attention, and i thought that one worked, as well. so a lot of fun stuff, and i think that when it came to celebrities more was more. not just one celebrity, but so many of these ad his three or four, six, celebrities. >> the same celebrities popped up a bunch. >> dan marino was in two different ads and tom brady -- or excuse me, tim birdie as they called him in one was in two different ads. you had the walk-in ad which i thought was great. it was weird with the car and

christopher walken any time he's on you want to watch. i thought overall, mark, my take was the ads were pretty safe. sometimes you get some pretty know edgy ads and i thought they were all safe for the most part and a lot of movie ads. we have a backlog of movies. >> they were safe, but i think generally they traded heavily on humor. there were a ton of movie ads, and i think those were when either the audience is really anticipating the movie and like "deadpool 3". >> that's your buddy ryan reynolds. >> you just gave a cheap plug for your friend. >> it's not a plug. it was a funny ad, and then there was another one i'm forgetting the name right now, but the movie has to hit hard if you're going to premiere the movie at the super bowl. you have to get my attention or else that was a ton of money for

that ad. >> my guess was quiet place 3 and the aliens if they eat people if they make any noise at all. >> i thought that was interesting and now my son wants to watch it and i said no way, it's too scary for all of us here. the number of celebrities that were out there and there was one that was missed and these are the tech pros which i sort of am one, when they cut to beyonce and jay-z in their box and cbs said jay-z and beyonce because the whole world knows who they are. did you see who was sitting next to them? jack dorsey, the founder of twitter and he was wearing a sat satoshi nakatomo, the founder of bitcoin and we're the business nerds and that image, i tweeted it out got more attention than the super bowl ads themselves and that's a win for beyonce, jay-z and jack dorsey at

bitcoin. >> jack dorsey is no longer run running the company formerly known as twitter. that's elon musk now. speaking of the tech world, was there so much ai, reference to ai in the ads and we saw it front and center in a google ad. i thought the google ad was great and we heard from microsoft and some ads poking fun at ai and this is the year where we really saw ai front and center. >> final takeaways? >> yeah. well, i thought the microsoft ai ad actually worked because it was real specific. it basically was a product demo for the co-pilot project, and i thought they really work and the takeaway, i would say. my takeaway is that, like, focus on making people laugh. you don't need the huge production to accomplish that goal. >> that's true. just some big-name talent which we saw a lot of last night and mark douglas and julia boorstin, thank you both very much.

appreciate it. >> closing the gap on venture capital and why they started getting less than halfof a percent of the vc money out there and what they can do to increase and first, diamondback energy and the particularer spik ticker spiking 10% in the perm onbasin and we'll get that and much more on the record markets and by the way, speaking of jack dorsy and his bitcoin sweatshirt. check out bitcoin. it was over 50k earlier. >> maybe that's satoshi nakatomi sweatshirt powered bitcoin higher. we're back after this. th thinko: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills

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producer behind exxon and chevron. exxon buying pioneer for 60 billion and chevron & hess for $50 billion and chevron pdc energy for $8 billion and mid-sized player apa formerly known as apache in a 4.5 billion deal lately. bottom line is there is a big push for production and with these deals it is basically three companies, exxonmobil, chevron and diamondback that rule and run texas' most valuable oil-producing region, all, by the way, in a matter of just a couple of months. now to tyler matheson for a cnbc news update. thank you very much, brian. police say the shooter who was shot and killed at joel olstein's home carried an assault-style rifle with palestine on it. that's according to officials. the shooter also threatened to

have a bomb which turned out to be unfounded and two police officers at the church struck and killed the shooter whose 5-year-old son was also critically injured in the chaos. white house national security spokesperson john kirby will be in charge of commun communicating coordinations and the press office. and a nor'easter is expected to hit early tomorrow dumping more than six inches of snow in new york city and over a foot in boston, perhaps. the storm has prompted both cities to close schools and is set to potentially down power lines and trees causing power outages. brian, i want you to drive carefully tonight and tomorrow. >> thank you, i will. it looks like there will be some snow days in the sullivan household tomorrow. >> likely in the matheson household, as well. >> tyler matheson, thank you

very much. >> stocks hitting new highs to start the week and the next guest sees a turning point coming in the market and the horse he's betting on for the next leg on this rally and you will find out only if you stick around. 57% of black business owners were denied bank loans at least once when starting their business, that's compared to 37% of non-black owners. despite this, many african-american entrepreneurs report feeling optimistic about their futures. celebrating black heritage, i'm sharon epperson.

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welcome back to "the exchange." happy monday, everybody. the dow and s&p 500 are having a happy monday and hitting new highs. the nasdaq closing in on a record and while your next guest se sees more room to run he thinks it will look different than it has. joining me is david katz chief asset officer at matrix asset advisers. good to see you in the daylight. what does that mean? how is the market move and the makeup going to change over the next number of months and

quarters? >> we are still upbeat about the market and we think that the things that have done phenomenally well will slow down and the technology and the magnificent seven start this year on a roll. we think that will slow down and the areas that we don't think has done well we think much more valuations will be the next leg and that will include things like healthcare and the utilities and drug companies, financials and industrials. all really have not done a lot at 14 to 15 times earnings and we think that's the place to make money. >> yeah. i saw a chart on x formerly known as twitter with charlie of creative planning and it said the ten top holdings in the s&p 500 are now over 32% of the entire index which is the highest concentration going all of the way back and maybe ever to 1980. ten stocks, 32% of a 500-stock index taking nothing away from

the nvidias of the world, david. that does not seem super healthy to me. >> we think it's health they these businesses have been doing phenomenally well and have grown significantly and historically, you're exactly right when the company gets that big as a part of the index they will slow down their changes in leadership and if you look at the valuation basis those stocks are selling north of 30 to 35 times earnings where a lot of the market are selling 15 to 17 times earnings and we think it is clearly within the mega-cap growth stocks have great growth prospects and they're fully priced for that and we think some of the companies that are having flat to modestly higher earnings this year don't have great near-term prospects and they have good, intermediate term prospects that you're getting and that's where we would like to put your money. >> and what do you get off electric power? it's a boring utility. >> the dividend grows nicely

over time and you're getting it at 4.5% with a 6% yield and they've been the worst performing groups over the last 12 months and we don't know if it will be may, june or july, but it's going to happen and when the rates start to go down and when money market rates start to go down people will start to move back from utilities and you'll want to buy them early and you're getting them at a brgreat price. >> also pnc financial, it's a bank and advisory firm and it's very big, by the way, but it's not j.p. morgan and doesn't get a lot of attention. >> one of the great things you want to focus on in banks is boring. you want a bank that's sort of under the radar, makes a lot of money, good balance sheet and good credit and that's exactly pnc. they pay a low yield and low p-e and we think the banks will do better as it progresses and we don't think the low community bank will spread out to the

other banks in the group especially the biggest banks and we'll be buying it in the recent dip. >> finally, an amgen and one of the biggest biotechs in the world. biotechs as a whole, david, are pretty interesting because they used to be the n vividias of a certain way and nobody seems to care about biotechs lately and maybe that's the point. >> definitely not the big biotechs. they sell as if they were drug companies. in terms of amgen they've done very well as a business and the stock sells at 14 times earnings and the stock's down after a glittering report. they have a number of goals on the weight loss drugs and they're clearly not a lily or novo nor disk, but we believe they have the next generation of products and instead of playing 18 times for lily, you are paying for amgen which might have a product out there and you're getting a very low yield while you're waiting and it

makes mono sdpey and grows over. >> and david katz, matrix asset advisers. also a pleasure. >> thanks a lot. have a great day. >> so if you're an investor when stocks go up it's likely your wealth goes up, too, and one group has seen the value of your assets by 50%, 5-0 percent in less than five years and no, it's not just old rich people buying nvidia. robert frank joining us with more on a rather surprising study. >> brian, good to see you. real wealth has increased for all age groups and real research shows that millennials and gen-z have seen by far the fastest growth. americans under 40 saw the wealth increase by 80% since 2019 and that compares with the growth rate of 20% for those 20 to 54 and the main reason is

stocks. those saw the value of their financial assets increase by 50% in 2019. those over 55 saw only a 20% increase, and it wasn't just that their existing stocks went up in value. they also bought more of them. the share of the financial assets held in stocks with 18 to 25% and that was the biggest increase of any generation. finally, they are starting to close the wealth gap with older investors and the share of assets held in stock now equal to those age 40 to 55. the research paper from the new york fed saying millennials and gen-z received large stimulus checks during covid and they used that money to buy stocks, quote. this increased exposure to equities and the fastest growing financial class during this period enabld younger adults to have both financial assets and overall weight. since they tend to favor tech they had a good start in 2024,

brian. so diamond hands didn't do well worry those investors. >> and living with mom and dad and being able to re-invest some of that money. what about the total wealth in each age strata? >> and that's where it gets tougher for millennials and gen z. they still have the one-tenth the wealth of baby boomers and a third of the wealth of those gen-x 40 to 54 and some of that is expected because that's the life cycle of wealth and you build it over your lifetime, but even at the age of 35 you compare today's folks with baby boomers and they're 30% less than baby boomers were when they were 35. so it's been a tougher climb up so far for this group, but the one thing that is really helping them now especially given that the housing market is so overpriced for the younger buyers is the stock market. those who got in have done very well. >> diamond hands, to your point.

robert frank, thank you very much. fascinating. good news there, good news everywhere today. coming up, match making and money, but no, this is not a valentine's day story. we'll tell you how black tech finders are findg innew ways to increase their funding. that's sharon epperson next.thes we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. awkward question... is there going to be anything left... —left over? —yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just—

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welcome back. well, higher interest rates have kept most venture capital funds on the sidelines lately, it has been particularly difficult for black founders to raise money. sharon epperson with how entrepreneurs are working to change that. >> some of them are doing exactly that. for many black entrepreneurs, reaching out for money and advice is increasingly important to help ensure their companies not only survive, but grow and

thrive. we talked to two start-up founders to how to find the right match. >> disappointed with the local dating scene in washington, shelly, an attorney, saw an opportunity. >> when i worked for a matchmaking service i looked for a dating app and i couldn't find anything that catered to professional black women. >> she founded carpe diem and to fund her business she sold her condo, drained her savings. >> the growth for revenue potential is massive. >> shelly has raised nearly $2 million and continues to make her case to investors for funding to enhance marketing, hire new matchmakers and new cities. >> i can't understate getting new capital to minor ut ands women of color to help them fuel their businesses. >> i think there is a unique drive of success because of the lack of resources and the necessity to drive optimal

outcomes with less support and less capital. >> matching investors with opportunity prompted jason ray to start his own wealth management firm based in philadelphia in 2019. many of his clients invest in early stage businesses. >> the first thing people should think about is how it frames into their investment policy or financial plan and why they're investing in start-ups. >> if clients want to invest he advises they know how the company operates and its competitive advantage. evaluate the management team and its track record and most importantly, understand the terms of the investment. >> if the valuation on the company is too high and you as an investor are not getting enough rights or ownership or control or whatever it may be it may not be the right deal for you even if the management team and the company has great competitive advantages. >> carpe diem, seize the moment now has a revenue-generating business. >> we have customers. we have members. it makes it easier coming to the table and advocating for additional funding from investors.

>> many start-up founders say finding the right match say finding people who want to invest early and who can offer advice and mentorship who help grow the company into a thriving business, brian. >> but it is risky and it takes money. so how much money does it take and how risky can it be? >> it is risky and a lot of start-ups are not successful and do not have positive returns, but what you want to do is if you want to be a credited investor and an angel investor and getting to an angel fund it's important to have at least $200,000 if you're single, $300,000 for married couples or a net investable assets of a million or more. >> i have to imagine, a lot of companies, most companies ultimately fail. given that, for goodness sakes don't put all of your money into one company, right, unless you're really a gambler. >> absolutely. you want to make sure you can

spread it out and don't have more than 10%, 20% of your portfolio in any start-up ventures and this is not money you can have access to and this is money that you will, perhaps, lose. we want you to get more advice and join me for a free, virtual women in cnbc, vent at 9:00 p.m. & we'll have a playbook and identify profitable investment opportunities and scan the qr code right there to register or visit cnbc events/women and he wealth. >> and it's free! that's 0% of your portfolio. works out. >> sharon, thank you very much. >> sure. coming up, forget offices andapartments and despite strong travel demand the next space could be hospitality. we'll explain coming up. nt to running my business? (tina) her. (christina) being all over, all at once. (tina) all the time.

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wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. ♪ ♪ all right. welcome back to "the exchange." shares of marriott and hilton both hit record highs last week, but some say there are real estate risks lurking around the corners in the hospitality sector. diana olick is joining us with more on that story.

diana? >> brian, all commercial real estate is being hit by higher interest rates even if a sector is doing well, commercial loans are much shorter term than residential mortgages and need to be refinanced more often and that hurts in today's higher interest rate environment. in the past after the great financial crisisafter the great financial crisis, they used a strategy of extend and pretend. they would extend the load until borrowers could get current again. lenders can sell the properties to either investors. besides office, we want to look at which sectors we should be paying attention to. believe it or not, lodging had a year in 2023 and expedia reported strong earnings, marriott is expected to report later today. a lot of lodging loans are maturing this year and next with over $30 billion worth. more than a third carry interest rates under 5% currently. there is concern that the consumers are starting to struggle and businesses are starting to cut expenses if

both leisure and business travel drop this year, that will hit those property owners hard right when they have to refinance to much higher rates. some that you might want to watch, motels, summit and asked the hospitality, all are struggling year to date. >> any other sectors inside or on the edge of this that people are saying could struggle a bit? >> i'm hearing rumblings about industrial and i always call that the least sexy sector of real estate, because during e- commerce and pandemic, there was so much demand for industrial, but some are saying that the sector is overheated and the evaluations are too high and it is leveling off when it comes to demand with some new supply coming onto the market, as well. you might want to watch that one. >> when you say warehouses, like logistics and all of that giant bland buildings? >> if your amazon order has to go there and a lot of the pharmaceuticals. we talked about that during the

pandemic or warehouses that are closer into the city. you want your one-day delivery from amazon, industrial sector is moving closer to cities and getting more expensive and taking over unused space. that sector is leveling out. >> if you drive up and down the new jersey turnpike, it's probably the same on the turnpike or where you are. every exit has a mile-long warehouse with 700 truck. it's incredible. >> we are not going to the stores as much and shopping malls. we want it delivered, which is where it's all coming from. >> looking at hospitality and logistics and industrials, thank you. we are now going to get to the trades but hotel names and head of reports, we are joined by victoria green of private wealth and a cnbc contributor. good to see you again. let's start with marriott. morgan stanley and noting some business international travel

demand is still needing to recover. while the debt levels are normal, they are hoping that marriott could finance more construction to grow revenue. are you a buyer? >> i see them reporting very strong earnings this afternoon and three things are going for them. everyone, more on the luxury and paint they have a great brand that could continue to get premium booking rates. they have a lot of growth in asia that continues to drive above average. three, you are still seeing a lot of leisure travel. people are continuing to prioritize spending on experiences versus what they are spending on goods. marriott announced partnership with mgm, which will allow booking sites and more revenue sharing their. that continues to bring in experience and in the hotel world. brands are a great driver for revenue growth and bringing more on for availability.

i think marriott will knock it out of the park. >> a lot of these companies are misunderstood. they don't own a lot of actual physical real estate, do they? >> they use franchise, leasing and partnerships. they have branding and wonderful loyalty. you have marriott members that will drive 30 minutes the other direction and make sure they stay at a marriott hotel. that is the loyalty of the branding. >> you have met are great and wonderful tech crew whenever we go on the road. i'm driving 45 miles that way to get my points. let's talk -- i am looking at you. massive real estate developer for nato and stock soaring. wells fargo warning on commercial real estate saying that it is risky. facing 4 billion and maturing debt. what do you make of these warnings? >> it is a sell for me. there are so concentrated in new york. coming on the hills of newark bank and the cre issue, they

are in the office of retail and they do have good things going for them. i think there is some green sheets happening in new york city. the debt is slightly over exaggerated in new york city, but i don't see funds from operations bottoming out. i see them continuing to decline on revenues and net operating income. i think they will started to get occupancy back up above and to present. for me, it is too early. there are still a few more to drop. again, i don't think the sector will completely die and i don't see them getting the flow from operations growth that we like to see. they have uncertainty on their dividend, which is something i don't like to see. >> a couple of big holdings in san francisco, like california and well-known office building. we know what's happening in san francisco. let's talk trash and waste management on a steady climb. they are coming off another, by the way. waste volumes are a key metric, but are also watching input costs, fuel and labor. new ways to capitalize on recycling and stock has been

hot. are you a buyer of wm? >> i am. they have broken out and continue to grow revenues and continue to grow operating margin. they have been great on controlling cost and i think they will get more from recycling. they will see unit volume growth in trash, which is not necessarily a great thing for the world, but a good thing for waste management. for me, they have a great management team that is continuing to say, how do we streamline and make more money? how do we grow off ability -- profitability. they are using recycling, which is boosting recycling and resell. they are seen as a leader in the trash space. , daytona soprano, but you have to lean into the waste a little bit here. >> i do like the restaurants. any place alongside that? not by tony and some of his new jersey friends, but by others. >> it is very legitimate. no question about that.

they definitely are the leader in the space. there are other interesting plays on the industrial side and i know you were talking about the warehousing and logistics being overbought, but we are moving so much more volume, because we are buying more online and we have all of this. if it's 48 hours, i don't want that no more and i want 24 hour delivery. it is going to be continue to be driven by ai. i know technology in logistics or waste management seems silly, but the more you can automate, then the more you can anticipate what you will need and the better you can deploy capital. >> i think i will quote freddie mercury of quinn with, i want it all, i want it all and i want it now. that is how we shop. victoria green, thank you. appreciate that. a quick check on the markets and i think we have time. 200 points and nasdaq up, as well. they are getting close to another record. the g erweo. that does it for the exchange and i will be back at 7:00 on

last call. power lunch is up next.

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