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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 12, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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>> now i'm just really concerned about nvidia's earnings report and how good it has to be after, i don't know if we want to call it a reverse long squeeze that we're hearing about from iab. >> we had a record close for the dow, nasdaq, we're on record watch for that, too. we didn't get it here today, though. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. fl omo fever. with names like nvidia, arm, meta, and lilly on seemingly unstoppable runs, is there time to jump onboard this rally, or is now the time to take the money and run? plus, temu's super bowl ad blitz. spending millions to raise awareness and boost business, but will u.s. law makers put a road block in front of their expansion plans? and later, inside the original fang's new deal on the
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en energy center. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- steve grasso, karen finerman, dan nay tan, and bonawyn eison. the dow closing today at an all-time high again, and even the nasdaq got it in on the action, trading at one point at what would have been a record close for the first time since november 2021. all three indices solidly in the green this year, but a couple of individual names have really caught our eye. everybody's eye, that is. nvidia continues its astronomical run. at one point today, eclipsing amazon in market cap, inching towards eclipsing alphabet. then there's arm holdings, up 30% today. nearly doubling since reporting earnings last week. eli lilly now has a bigger market cap than testesla.
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sand super microis closing in on 800 bucks a share. so, the monster moves got us th thinking, is this a bull market or is the market full of bull? >> whoa. >> dan? >> i'm surprised we never heard before. >> she goes to the guy who she thinks is must full of bull. really interesting day on the market, you would probably all agree. apple and microsoft and amazon and google close down 1%, the s&p unchanged. at one point, nvidia was just raging, right, and the semis kind of did that intraday reversal, but again, unchanged. the problem with nvidia here is that they report next week, we can all put it in the calendar, we can see what the expectations are. we know it's up, at the highs today, it was up 50%. you were just talking about how it overtook amazon. 50% on the year. that's what happened. we're in the second week of february. that's $900 billion in market cap. in all of our collective careers, we have never seen
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anything like that in a short period of time. it's hard goat your arms around it. i have ptsd of the 2000 sort of bear market. the last time we saw these sorts of ramps in individual names based on the sort of excitement that, i think, most people would agree that, yes, this was a new technology, it was going to change so many industries and that sort of thing, but you full forward all that enthusiasm and it did take 2 1/2 years -- it took 14 years for the nasdaq to get back to those highs from 2000, so -- you know, i look at this and i say it's an accident waiting to happen, but here's the good news, if you're a slow money person, not a fast money person, you own 4% in your spy. you own 6% of in your nasdaq 100. you are exposed to it. i think the idiosyncratic risk that exists in this name into that print next week is really dangerous. >> are we too hung up on the percentage gains? what's different about the period that gave you ptsd and
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today, this is a name that's making money. we couldn't say that back then. >> yeah, that was going to be my point. there's a massive disparity in terms of valuation. agreed in terms of the acceleration. it is concerning. at some point, the price and expectations do outstrip the actual value. however, comparing those to y2k if you will, some of those companies didn't produce income, let alone revenue at all. so, that was purely on speculation. and when you're looking at names like lilly and nvidia, they truly do have and have shown the ability, already with their target adjustment market and the proliferation to the market, is they have an opportunity to be truly transformative in terms of both the stock market and in terms of how they're aticketing consumers, so, i do think there is definitely at least some proof of concept there at a very large scale. not to mention, i think dan mentioned a couple shows ago, we saw amd start to stumble a bit
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and they are coming in, saying they are going to be competing on price, looking to slice margins. when you see that type of competitor fall, that bolds very well. and juxtapose that with the lilly situation, where we've seen other trials that have not gone through. clearly, they have found a way to wrap up the accept credit sauce and deliver a product that has a large adjustable market and clear barriers to entry, because competitors are not able to compete. yes, come petition will take over, but now, the valuation still is compelling and these are companies that are earnings and watching expectations be racheted higher. >> value investor over here owns nvidia. >> i do. and i own lilly, as well. this sort of action is particularly the first, i don't know, hour or two hours, just a meltup on really nothing. it was -- it almost reminded me of -- the viacomm, you know, for no reason.
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it was just going berserk, what was under it? it did seem to be up on nothing. we've seen this twice before since the giant transformation and when they made that enormous expectation of revenue just exploding. so, i think it's going to play out the same way. there's just -- the expectations are so, so high, can they put up any number? is there a number that will be enough? i'm concerned that there isn't. and so, have to lighten going into it and probably right when it happens. >> i agree with that. you have to lighten. you have no other choice. but think about how many times -- you said the last time on the show, how many times have they surprised to the upside, where everyone said, it's all in the numbers. we did the valuation, you compared the dot com bubble, to now, how it's different, but they have 85% of the market share. 5 every sector is going to use a.i. if you're an industrial, an energy company, retail company,
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you're all -- so, when we used to look at technology companies, 95% of that technology was used for that technology company not to be sold to every other sector. every sector, everyone in this room, the majority of the population with a computer is going to be using a.i. they have 85% of the market share. until they lose that 85% of the market share, this was all pixie dust, until they were actually monetizing it. they're making billions in it. 80% of their revenue is from data centers. what do you need for a.i.? data centers. they've locked it up. >> yeah, i mean, listen. and you could have made the same argument, you know, 20 some years ago, about -- it was actually data centers back then. it was sun microsystems that was -- >> cisco was the backbone. >> really doesn't matter the profitability. cisco wasn't a very profitable company then. it was a $400 billion company at its highs. this is a company that gained a
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trillion dollars in a month. when i look at a company, 73% gross margins, 85% market share, it doesn't get any better from there. like, that's it. and when you think about all these industries that are going to transform using a.i., they're going to use it from the hyper scalers. it's going to be aws, google cloud, the other players. how do they compete? they compete on price, just like the competitives when they come in. then they're going to go and they're going to design their own chips. it's going to become commoditized. it's going troons form, but it's going to transform over a much longer period than most people expect. that is the history of technology. there's no reason to think this should be that different. so, i'm just saying, we look at every tick in this stuff. we talk about it every night. we debate this kind of stuff, it's kind of a game for us. but it's not different. human psychology, the way we think about investing, the way we think about fear and grief, it's the same. at some point, this will turn.
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you know how i'm going to be there? i own stuff for the long-term, like we all do, that we dollar cost average in and this is a huge outsized percentage of it relative to a year ago. so, you have that exposure. >> i guess my point is -- is that you can't go fromm a nacen industry to saturation overnight. i you this we're early in that cycle. >> right. when you get off the train. when do you think the train is going to stop? so, how do you assess that? and what happens to the markets when that train stops? if the markets are being powered right now, literally, by a.i., a.i. power sort of plays, you know, glp-1 sort of plays, what happens when that music stops, if it does? are we in jeopardy? >> well, certainly. all you have to look at rsp. equal weighed versus the spy and the concentrated market cap-weighed index, or eft. it is telling you, yes, we do have extreme concentration risk.
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we have a handful of names leading us higher. but that's all the more reason, if i'm going to be invested, to be in those markets. i agree that things do happen in cycles. there is a human psychology, but things can remain out of whack much longer than you can remain solvent. what is the opportunity cost -- i mean, at $300, we said it w ridiculous. you can lose a loft of money, or, have foregone a lot of money in that time trail. so, we're trying to pick the tops and bottoms, and i don't blame karen for lightening the position, but you wewe have to little humble and trade the trends. whether we necessarily can deride value in the way that we would do traditionally, there is
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a perceived value and these companies. and it's our job, as one of my mentors told me, do you want to be right or do you want to make money? and you have to be in lock step with where people are allocating money. you have to be in lock step and perhaps you get out earlier than someone who wants to ride it for the last tick, but to essentially say this is uninvestable, i'm not sure i can get into that camp. >> so, i'm somewhere in the middle. it's investable, i'm invested in it, but there is that part of it that is just -- i wouldn't say it's a -- it's the pexexpectati being too much, theory, getting back to, as i said, is there a number they can put up? so, to me, i will be at least a third out by the time they announce, whether i buy that back, i don't know. and then, you pay an enormous tax and when do you get back in? i don't know. but i do think, to steve's point, we're still early in the a.i. evolution, revolution,
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whatever you want to call it. and let me just tell you, cisco in 1999 was trading at 200 times earnings. >> wow. and this is what -- >> well, it was 30, but now it's 47, i don't know where it is now. >> i think to dan's point, we could be early in the a.i. story, but later in the nvidia story. >> well, that is true. >> right. >> there's a difference there. anyway, our next guest suggests nvidia's rise is fear of missing out in the market. julian, great to see you. >> great to be here. >> so, how do you sort of think about what investors want, how they're positioned, the trend versus the fundamentals of where we are right now? >> so, i'm going to start by acknowledging two things that bonawyn just said that is absolutely spot on. the first being, you know, essentially that it is not about being right, it's about making money. and a lot of this business. but the second really sort of tying in from the first is that
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there are times when one has to think about protecting one's capital rather than growing one's capital. and look. our call that there is fomo in the market, you see it in the options market. calls are trading at all-time expensive versus downside puts. the sentiment is very, very bullish, the bears have been eliminated, short interest, all of these things. and also, the same clients, a lot of which we know going back to 2000 have begun in the last couple weeks to talk about the potential penalty that they might pay for being underinvested. that's the first time that's happened since 2021. for us. that's a bit of an alarm bell. now, the other thing is that the humility of this business is really evident in some of these stocks moving. look, we have been onboard in
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pieces, we like communications services, it's been a great sector, we think there are defensive properties, but all in all, this is a time where, when you look at it, the s&p's up 43% since the october '22 low, the nasdaq is up 71%, and guess what? earnings at the s&p level are the same they were two years ago. nasdaq, obviously, we know where the earnings power is. but at the broad index level, 22 times is very expensive. we just think it's time to think more about risk than reward, until we get just a little cooling off. >> i almost thought you were going to go to, you know, we want to be long, but we don't necessarily see the fundamentals stacking up. but it sounds like that's where your clients are at this point in time, when they're feeling forced to be long, you know, at all-time highs? >> that's part of the message. and again, i think -- you know -- and we compare this to
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2000, and the good part about comparing this to 2000 is the valuations are not as extreme, basically the seeds for a downturn startled to appear in early 2000. you didn't get the recession until '01, we do not see that yet. but on the other side of the coin is that the concentration of the top five right now is 25%. that number was 18% in 2000. >> when i look at it, there's always two sides to the market, right? so, when i look at it, i think people were offsides and people were overestimating how bad things were going to be, so, they stayed out of the marketplace. and that created a pent-up demand. worried about the recession. that hasn't come yet, or maybe there was sort of a rolling recession that we didn't see. that's why the money rushed in. so, i always think that you can remain that way or offsides on both sides of the market. we got so defensive and people
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pulled back so much money from the overall market, now they're dumping it in, so, i don't know if it's fear of missing out as much as, hey, this is the game in town that i have to be onboard with, because the apocalypse is not coming, at least for the foreseeable future. >> and i'm sympathetic to that, steve, but at d of the dashgs yo day, you're still making 5% on cash. so, there is an element -- >> true, you make 5% in ten minutes. >> right. right. in two minutes, really, seeing some of these names. but that is -- is the entirety of the calculus that, for us, says, you know, and we've had this conversation from time to time, is that when you're actually thinking as if nothing can go wrong, which the market in a lot of ways is, that's the time when you have to think about, if you got an average-sized pull-back and the average nonrecession year, the market pulls back 13% from peak to trough, you need to be a
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buyer, not a seller, and if you can't see yourself being a buyer down there, you should probably lighten up a little bit here. >> julian, you know, we just spent a lot of time talking about psychology and we all have long memories about these periods, so, when you see the activity going on right now, it e is easy to say, it's different now. but when you think about what's going on in semis, i want to talk about tesla. we were going to be full ev by here, it was going to have this sort of penetration, they had no competition here, they were the best manufacturer of this sort of stuff and they have margin in this sort of stuff, and full self-driving was going to come. and here we are, it's been cut in half. it's massively underperformed the s&p 500 over the last three years, down 30% in the month. i don't hear those folks anymore. we hear a few of them. this can happen again. the last time nvidia had this sort of mojo, it was ar and vr and facebook was changing its name and it went down 70%.
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so, i'm just curious. when you talk to clients, are they cognizant of this sort of thing? do they have this sort of memory? >> well, they do, but again, there's an element of the recency bias that says, you know, i may be in more danger for missing out on the way up, but look, i would say, it's pretty clear and everyone's been talking about this for weeks, the magnificent seven is now the magnificent six. and to me, that implies that -- the gains are becoming even narrower here and that's something we feel like you need to watch out for. >> yulejulian, thank you. good to see you. so, karen, in terms of options strategies, how are you protecting your portfolio? >> i sold some more meta calls today. the -- and i'm short nvidia calls, that's one by two, which is essentially getting -- selling some stock if it gets above a certain price. and i'll look at more in the
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next couple of days. i do -- it's interesting, though, psychologists always tell us, the pain of losing money is far greater than the good feeling of making money. and yet we are in a very different -- >> you talk to your shrink about stocks? >> no. >> i was just curious. that's really interesting. >> they do have shrinks for trading. >> it's none of my business. >> they do. it's not just -- >> it was on "billions." it's a real thing. so, what are you doing, options guy? >> honestly, i think you actually buy protection. i think you actually buy protection. and as i told you, i've lightened up some of my nvidia position. i think it's a long haul. i want to acknowledge both of their points. i agree with you, things are cyclical. i guess what i'm saying is, there's a long toothed round trip and are you willing to miss
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everything that goes with that round trip? that's really what it boils down for me. coming up, shares of vornado on the move after delivering results. the numbers next. plus, inking an in infrastructure deal. martin marietta with a purchase. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee. right here on cnbc. our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.
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welcome back. we have an earnings alert. vornado reporting its q-4 results. the stock is up 2.5%. it was up more than 6% at highs. the real estate investment trust reporting adjusted earnings of 4 cents a share. ffo did beat what was expected, i believe. karen, what do you make of this quarter? >> well, it wasn't as bad as people thought it could be. the new york city okccupancy wasn't terrible. we all know new york city commercial real estate office buildings, not a great place to be. san francisco, very, very challenged. but really, the underlying thing here is, what do you think happens to rates?
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i mean, this is so pinned to rates. all of them are, but you have to just make a bet that rates are going to go lower to feel comfortable here. >> yeah. how do you feel about rates and whether or not you would be in one of these name sths. >> ah, i don't think it would be in this name. one, the concentration in new york and then san francisco as a secondary market. rates, i don't think are going to be falling nearly as fast and it's not -- for me, it's not just rates. it's banks willingness to refi and extend the existing terms. and i think they're kind of, you know, coming under the gun and not being able to do that. karen and i were just talking about all the dry powder that is there in these distressed asset funds. so, there's actually, you know, a willingness for banks to now deal to people that can come in and kind of take out the existing equity. i think the backdrop is a little different. >> and we heard these data points, 1.5 trillion of commercial debt is supposed to reset by 2025. the bottom of the commercial market is not supposed to hit
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until the second half of 2024. so, you can get in and buy these names ahead of those bottoms, but why would you? it just doesn't make any sense. and who isholding all that set? 30% of it is the regional banks. so, you have to stay away from regional banks, you have to wait until commercial estate bottoms. >> i mean, even second half of 2024 seems very optimistic. mizuho said cre default rates are a lagging end kaindicator. that's quite a huge lag, i mean, if you're thinking about investing now, to see a peak in a year or two years. >> some might say it's a long and variable lag. but again, because we haven't seen -- just look at the home builders right now. they're raging. did you see them today and where the ten-year is at 4.17? the highest it's been in awhile. again, this is a really tricky -- both areas, the dynamics are obviously really different, and i actually don't think the commercial real estate thing gets any better. >> i think there was a bounce
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there when rates went down, but i think -- this -- the pandemic is way worse than '07. beyond, i mean -- >> right? >> structurally, yeah. >> way worse. >> there's a glut of supply, and that's the difference between residential or the home builders narrative and this. i mean, there is -- to me, there's no end in sight. unless we're going back -- return to work is getting restored to 100% of what it once was -- if there's even a modicum of hybrid work, you can't expect the same occupancy. here's what's coming up next. we're living in a material world. and this is a material deal. a building supplier inking a $2 billion construction acquisition, as demand in the in infrastructure world keeps climbing. and it's not only the deal of the day. one oil producer sinking their fangs into an energy megamerger. more on the crude consolidation ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site
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in times square. we're back right after this. meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.
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money." martin marietta with an acquisition. shares hitting an all-time high after they will take over part of blue water raw materials for $200 million in cash. they die vested its south texas operations for almost the same price. the company saying today that the two portfolio on mooizing transactions improve the company's product mix, margin profile, and durability through cycles. so, what do these mergers mean for the material space? obviously it's an infrastructure play, and thanks to the biden administration and congress, there we have it, this has been a big investment thesis. >> and it takes such a long time for this -- for these dollars to actually flow through. you are starting to see the money actually flow through to the end companies. but it's still -- it's hard to really place your bets and that's why you're starting to see them try to aggregate their positions and try to buy up the smaller companies. and it ghoes big on geographic regions. so, this deal specifically, they
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wanted exposure to nashville and miami, so, they wanted the southern eastern part of the u.s., so, that fills, you know, a piece of the puzzle for them. they've outperformed vulcan by 2-1. you have to dig under the hood -- dig -- and look -- >> clever. >> yeah. i didn't mean it. >> steve eisman, he said this is probably the closest to -- the highest conviction since the actual big short. >> yeah, the new light, mr. sunshine. >> steve, yeah. >> for me, i've made the bet in united rentals. if you rent equipment and you have years of people using it, that's a good thing. so -- i mean, aggregates is great, too, but this is how i've made my bet. coming up, an energy deal you can sink your teeth into. diamondback biting into an oil rival for a whopping $26 billion, but could there be even
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more energy m and spa on the mo rison? and bitcoin hitting $50,000 for the first time in two years. the latest on the climb, and the options trade on one platform giving customers access toll the bitcoin etf. that's when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back. stocks closing mixed to start the week. the s&p and nasdaq both in the red, snapping four-day winning streaks. shares of snap jumping nearly 5% today. the social media company announcing it has entered into a private debt buy-back transaction. snap agreeing to buy $130 million worth of convertible notes due in 2025 and 2026. and shares of lowe's getting a boost, after the stock was upgraded by overweight, upping the price target to $265. rivian not getting as much analyst love today. barclays downgrading them to equal weight, saying a great product may not be enough to avoid an ev winter. rivian down 30% so far this year. diamondback energy soaring 9% today after saying they will merge with endeavor energy
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resources. the cash and stock deal is valued at $26 billion, including debt. would make the company the third-biggest oil and gas producer. here to go inside this deal, paul sankey, president of sankey research. good to see you. >> hi. >> they really had to fend off competitors to win over endeavor. >> yeah, that's right. how often do you see a company go up 10% with a 60/40 stock deal. you would expect diamondback to trade off, but the stock went up 10%. telling you how much the market and we love the deal. it's a great deal. >> what does this tell you about other assets that are available for sale in the basin, and who might else go after them? >> well, there's less and less people on the dance floor. endeavor, we knew that exxon were looking at it, shell were looking at it. so, that's why it's such a big win for diamondback. and i think they got this win because they are based in midland.
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very low-cost operator. and attractive to the owner of endeavor, because they're a local player. so, it's a unique opportunity for diamondback, with such good operations, i think they'll do very well. you get into devin, marathon oil, theose are the names that look like they've got to do something. we think they have to get bigger to get higher multiples. devon is rumored to be buy ing n the balkan, which is what we don't like as much. and marathon is an open question. >> when you look at the u.s., paul, where we are outproducing the middle east on oil per day, per barrels per day, it seems like we have the -- the story has gone from, let's trace oil with a chevron or an exxonmobil and now, let's go to the m&a
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cycle. these deals don't necessarily have to have crude moving higher, which is probably a better spot for an energy investor to actually have some appreciation of the worth of the stock, so, is that the process that we're in right now, where we're just trying to pick the next takeout candidate versus the move in crude? because it doesn't seem like it's going anywhere. >> well, the whole takeout trade has been upside down, because companies have sold themselves for no premium. often because the ceo is cashing in. that's not good for shareholders. this is another example of that, because diamondback has gone up on the deal andendeavor is not quoted, so, there's no movement there, but essentially, it hasn't been -- it's been a bad oil take for people who are hoping to get taken over, because you haven't seen any premiums. having said that, the boring good thing about this tape is that we're $80 brand. the big oil is paying out the most they've paid out in their history, including 2022, which was, you know, a crazy year for
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prices. so, what you've seen here, as well, the expiration of production companies blew out their cash return and returned to shareholders in '22 and are now falling off. these bigger companies have emerged and are ramping their cash returns. and they're ramping them, as i said before on this show, to a point where they are outright attractive against any stock in the market, which is what we've been waiting for. and we judge that as a 10% sustained cash return to hairshoulders. if you have a 10% cash return to shareholder sustained, your basis is returned to you within eight years, at which point, you own an option on the future of oil and we think that's a great option. so, it's not a near-term trading call. it's a long-term structural attraction that you see warren buffett buying into oxy. >> thank you, paul. we have a news alert on jetblue. k carl icanh taking in a 9.91%
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stake in the company. phil willebeau? >> it's unclear what his play is. this is a wildly underperforming airline stock, relative to their peers over the last two years, and therefore it is ridiculously cheap. is his play, this has been an airline that has been poorly managed over the last couple of years? making a bet that it had to unwind in terms of the northeast alliance with american airlines. proposing a costly merger with spirit airlines that was shot down once in court and is under appeal right now. and may not get approved on appeal. so, that is the question for investors at this point. it's a heck of a way for
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jetblue's ceo to take over. we talked with her after jetblue reported its fourth quarter earnings, and i said to her, what is your game plan here? short of the proposed amemerger? and he she said, getting back t the basics. making more money on the markets where we have an advantage, where we can do well. and really, getting back to the blocking and tackling of doing better as an airline, which is really what jetblue made its name on, way back in the day. before it started getting caught up in, how do we merge, how do we grow, how do we strike an alliance with another airline? carl icahn with a 9.91% stake in jetblue. >> phil, thank you. we see the quote, jetblue shares, according to icahn, he's seeking board representation on the world of jetblue.
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this is an interesting one, given there's a new ceo that is coming in. that obviously no acquisitions, no m&a can be done in this space, so, what is that playbook, at this point, for icahn? >> yeah, he does talking about getting a board position. that's big. you can see what he paid for stock, $5.49 was where he sort of started -- even lower, maybe, than that. i don't know what he can do. he's a pain to have on the board, right? i don't know if it would be him or somebody else, but -- i doubt he's going to take over. >> interesting, we wake up every monday now, we have merger mondays. a lot of strategic interests, we have activists who are pretty active, we have the s&p at all-time high, i don't know if they can throw the equal weight, that just broke out. russell 2,000's rallied 6%. everything feels great. i'm serious. unemployment is -- >> skin must be burning. >> inflation is getting tamed,
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you know, interest rates are high, but you know what, things are working in this environment, you know what i mean? >> this is sarcasm, if you weren't watching. >> i see you. you guys are seen, okay? i just want you all to know that. >> one tiny new thing. new rules on 13-bs, you have to report within five days of going over. >> oh, five days. >> yes, it's new. >> oh, so, yeah, i guess because he made several purchases in january and february, so -- >> yes. >> right. >> interesting. very interesting. >> we know he's going to shake things up. to what extent he's able to do that, given the restrictions within the space are tbd. but it would be uneasy to assume that new role and then have it announced subsequently that icahn is going to be joining you, whether you invited him or not. >> am i allowed to buy it right now from the desk? >> yeah. >> i think it's going -- this is him -- i like the way icahn
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rolls. he rolls just like a trader. you'll appreciate that. he rolls like a trader. he looks at a chart and he thinks, wow, the spirit deal was off, being appealed, as phil said, maybe there's a little light at the end of the title. maybe i can crimp and tuck. but he's going to make the stock move higher. >> he's really funny. though -- way, way long ago, i think did not -- >> yeah, not a good trade for him. >> no. we'll see about this one. coming up, the crypto kraez continues. bitcoin above 50,000 for the first time since december 2021. why that is huge for robin hood and how the options market is setting up ahead of the company's next earnings report. plus, china making a major push into u.s. markets with not one, not two, but three super bowl ads for temu what is next for one of china's biggest companies, right after this. "fast money" is back in two.
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month. $1.1 billion coming in last month. the recent action boosting shares of robin hood. and options traders are taking notice. mike khouw has the action. hey, mike. >> hi there. yeah, so, the options market implying some pretty big moves, 11%, the day after they report, and probably closer to 14% higher or lower by the end of this week. we saw about four times the already elevated average daily options volume and calls outpaced puts by more than two to one and the busiest contract we saw today were the weekly 12-strike calls that expire this coming friday. we saw about 27,000 of those give or take trading for about 83 cents. buyers of those calls are betting that the stock could rally 7%, 8% plus by the end of this week. >> thanks, mike. mike khouw. coming up, an ultra discount retailer spending big bucks. temu with the super bowl ad blitz. more "fast money" in two.
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♪ feels like a dream ♪ ♪ feels like magic ♪ >> this is one of several $7 million ads for temu, which
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aired during the super bowl last night. if you hadn't heard of the retailer, you probably have now. temu is owned by china's pin duo duo. the company reported a huge surge in app downloads. searches spiked for "how to shop like a billionaire," which is their tag line. what about all the red flags raised after all the ads aired? here to discuss, gabriel, you've been reporting significantly on these discount retailers. what i notice is that -- it's almost like they just want to go after the marketshare, they want to get in the mind of the american consumer and lawmakers can try to pick their fights if they can, but once they get imbedded in the american consumer, it's going to be a tough road for lawmakers say, you can't have that anymore. >> that's exactly right, me lis sachlt melissa. they've been doing this ad blitz for a long time now. the super bowl topped off those efforts off. but americans are already
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shopping on temu. it's already here. and this could -- whether or not it's going to pose a threat to other discounters like walmart, target, burlington, tjx, things like that, it depends on whether or not americans really want to shop like a billionaire. if they are going to keep returning to this app, how good the items are. we kind of have seen flashes in the pan like this before with wish, the online dollar store, their stock is down about 75% since it ipo-ed at a $14 billion valuation. too early to tell, but lawmakers, good luck trying to reign them in. >> they could close the loopholes in the amount of goods that are shipped into the u.s. would taxes, right? >> temu is like shein, they are benefitting from the exceptions. they are shipping directly from the sffactories, making them avd
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scrutiny from u.s. officials. as long as the packages are valued under $800, which most of the things from temu is. they are not going to get screened the same way. and lawmakers are concerned about forced labor and temu's supply chain. they are getting in without getting caught. lawmakers said it all but guaranteed that any item coming into the u.s. is made with slave labor, but until they close that exception, those items are going to keep coming in. >> karen, has this been a concern for you in terms of amazon or target? >> well, target, i sold because i feel like they can pick off target's sort of higher margin business. that's a concern. are they operating at a profit, and if not -- they are? >> we don't know too much about it, because they are a pry sat company, they are owned by pdd, which is public, but we don't break that out. some reports say they were at a loss last year in the last quarter, but that's the thing. at that scale, i mean, what margin do you really have? and to ship things by air, at that cost, i mean, you're losing money. >> that's what i was thinking,
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but they make it up in value. i don't know how much pdd would want to lose -- >> i mean, yeah. but when you do an ad blitz like this -- last year, they quietly opened -- they launched september '22, nobody really knew about them. they made a big splash with super bowl ad. by the end of 2023, they were the number one most downloaded app in the u.s. so, they made huge gains. and now, they blitzed us last night with three different ads. if you didn't know about temu before, you know about it now. so, perhaps, i mean, they're going to get that volume that's going to get them to profitability, going to get this to be a sizable and good investment for the overall company, but that's a lot of ifs. gabrielle, thank you. >> they have a ton of catch. so, whatever they're losing right now, or how many tens of millions they spent on super bowl ads, i mean, for them to find a foothold in the u.s. -- your question is a really good one.
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once it becomes entrenched in america -- tiktok is a great example. >> biden re-election campaign is on tiktok now. >> no government official can have tiktok on their pneho, but they have an account. >> congress for you. coming up next, final trades.di. . (bobby) so, we switched to verizon business internet. easy. they have business grade internet, nationwide. fast, reliable, and easy to set up. (assistant) boom. instant makeover. (bobby) now this room is really working. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close.
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final trade time. steve? >> jetblue, follow carl in, see how it all works out. >> karen? >> yes. i'm sticking always with my man jamie dimon. i like jpmorgan here. what's not to like? >> always. smh puts. good way to headlong.
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>> and bonawyn? >> stellantis. the automakers continue. >> keep an eye on jetblue. that's not just grasso's final trade, but the stock is up 17% afterhours. thank you for watching "fast." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. ♪ ♪ ♪ my mission is simple: to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i am cramer. welcome to "mad money". welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make some money. my job is not just to entertain you, educate you, teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. it's such a bummer. it's the most distant serving kind of sentiment, even as it can be migh

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