that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. european stocks retreat from the two-year high as investors turn cautious ahead of the u.s. inflation report. tui takes off. shares moving higher after posting record revenue in the first quarter with the investors set to vote on the london listing later.

the eu foreign policy chief says the group cannot be an ala carte alliance while olof scholz says it needs to stick to the commitments. >> i'm sure the american people will do so also. oil prices edge up amid fears the middle east tension could disrupt supply while the iea director birol says there is still clean energy investment. >> there is a general direction agreement, but the pace of the trouble means we will see what is under discussion. good morning. let's get you caught up on markets. as you can see on the heat map behind me, there is a lot of red on the board.

the stoxx 600 is trading .30% weaker as we have been speaking this week with chinese markets out for lunar new year. we had the dow in positive territory and other two under selling priessure. tesla with the second worst performer in the s&p. stock is down 24%. that is pulling down the indices in trading yesterday. the focus for the market today is that cpi print. the u.s. cpi number is a big driver for direction. it comes out later today. economists are expecting a headline number of 2.9%. we will talk more about that on the show. as for the european session, the stoxx 600 trading under water briefly. you see the rest of the indices

struggling. the per repr peripheries are do the dax sitting below 17,000 which is down .60%. infineon is dragging that sector down. we have chemicals trading up. the cac 40 is down .30%. a lot of movement in luxury the last couple days with china and some of the more structure headwinds facing the luxury giants within europe and a lot of them within the french index. the ftse 100 is showing interesting macro data. the employment data has come in quite strongly. wages growing 6.2%. bonuses pointing to a strong labor market. that has meant investors have dialed down the expectation of rate cuts for the year.

anything rate sensitive is getting hit within the ftse 100. we are seeing pharma out perform. astrazeneca at the top of the ftse 100. this is where leadership is coming from. healthcare with the pharma doing well on a risk-off day. up .30%. autos up .10%. tech is down 1.9%. i mentioned infineon. the hand over from the u.s. session is an issue. as for u.s. futures as we head into the u.s. cpi print, all three majors are seen opening down today. s&p is still above 5,000. the nasdaq is 55 points lower. risk-off continues into the u.s.

session. let's talk more about the uk wage numbers. it grew at the lowest pace at the end of last year. according to the official data, wages grew 6.2%. still 6.2% year on year in the three months to december which was slightly better than expected. u.s. consumer expectations are steady in january. the new york fed survey showed most americans see inflation unchanged at 3% in one year and coming down to 2.5% in five years. sentiment with the labor market increased with the earnings growth for the year expected of 2.88%. that is interesting. investors now turn attention to the release of the official inflation data later today. we spoke about that with analysts expecting inflation to

fall below 3% for the first time in years. we have emma wahl with us now. let's pick up on the inflation print and how pivotal is this number for markets? >> extremely. we are already beginning to see that in the nervousness of the cautious future. i don't think any investor, professional or otherwise, is in the business of doing valuation metrics. all we do is try to protect inflation and central bank moves. that is what's driving markets on both sides of the pond today. >> with that said, we had a number of stronger numbers in the u.s. non-farm payroll and gdp. stock markets have performed quite well. i do wonder how big a surprise

it will take to actually deter stock markets to continue to rise. >> i think if we take ourselves back 12 months to the beginning of last year, the conversation was very much not if we would have recession in the u.s., but when we would have recession in the u.s. fast forward to today, naturally although interest rates are not forecast to come down at the speed the market was predicting a couple of months ago, but it is a robust economic picture in the u.s. and in other developed markets than we were expecting a year ago. we are on a tightrope. one of those really important things to consider is when the market is like this, it's very volatile. you have seen that today and yesterday in terms of market trading. yes, the s&p reached an all-time high last friday and, yes, it was a spectacular year through

2023. these economic and macro data points still have very much the ability to cause a lot of unrest and volatility in the markets and expectation of the inflation figures. today, it has seen growth stocks come up and tesla come down and the steady eddie cautious stocks do better. i think we should expect this to continue through the year until inflation very much comes down and bank rates or interest rates begin to normalize. it will be a volatile and easily spooked market. >> interesting. i guess that's what happens when central bankers tell you they are data dependent. we all are data dependent and the inflation numbers take a high level of importance. i'm interested in the survey your firm put out which i thought stood out to me which is confidence has risen in european and japanese and north american sectors, but fallen in the asia

pacific sectors. to what extent does this index track price movements versus the signal of what's to come in the future? we know the under performance of the chinese equities. >> i think you are right. when we see this, the survey is really a momentum trade survey. the u.s. has done spectacularly well in the last year. despite recent pullbacks, europe is up 9% in the first month. this is an indication of where our clients are seeing their portfolios do well. i think if you dig into the data more and look at some of the macro views that we've captured as well, that is really interesting. actually, confidence in the u.s. economy is up a few points. that is about economic growth and confidence that rates are going to be coming down over the

short and medium and long term has increased as well. if we tie that to the wage figures that have come out today, that is a potential discrepancy of the confidence in the uk economy and wage figures. you covered it at the top of the hour, but headline view and wage figures are positive. if you dig underneath the data, wage growth is up and employment is up. unemployment is down, but actually a key data point for me is the redundancies are up. those are back to 2021 levels when we were in the depths of the pandemic when businesses were squeezed. i don't want to scare the horses, but that is the data point the bank of england will look at when they look to decide what to do with interest rates. >> there are a few warning signs coming up in the economy. there are fewer rate cuts priced into the uk curve than other curves.

since we're talking about the uk, are any investors looking to do any trades or put on any trades around and into the elections? >> i think it is less about the elections and much more about valuations. in particular with our domestic market in the uk about dividends. if you have a look at the ftse 100, as you know, around 70% is the ftse 100 revenue overseas. it is not just a domestic play. it gives you shelter from the politics. if you have a look at dividend cover at the moment, yes, bond yields remain high currently and you can get a great rate on bond rates and cash. if you look at the five-year yield, you see the important part of the income portfolio. we are seeing really attractive dividends in the uk at the moment. as you know, equities have the ability to give you income growth which bonds don't necessarily. we are seeing stock selection going on with the clients

particularly in the financial sector. i would say definitely on the macro point of view and market point of view, our clients are favoring the u.s. they are beginning to see value in the uk equities on the individual basis. >> emma, thank you for giving us your perspective. emma wall from hargreaves. tui, as you see, is up 4%. it is the record first quarter perfo performance. reporting 4.3 billion euro. very strong start to tui today. you can see the stock is right behind me. let's broaden out and look at how other airlines are faring on the back of the tui push. you see it hasn't impacted other airlines. the rest of the sector is trading under water. air france is down 1.5%. lufthansa down 1%. ryanair is down .90% as well.

you look at all of the industrial action over europe in the last few months. annette is joining us with more over the tui numbers. we see an increase in the price today. where is all of this positivity coming from at the company level? >> reporter: it's actually a turn around story with tui. if youlook at the longer term horizon, ever since the pandemic struck, you see the deal making. what happens right now is if you look at the sub segments that are coming back into profitable territory across the company, the only units left for loss making are airlines which are small losses and also what they call tui amusements. that is what they call the future which is all about tours and activities. they have a lot of people

employed in that pocket. that is loss making. talking about the other core business, which is travel and cruises, that has been a weak spot for many, many quarters. it's back into profitable territory. what we see now in the first quarter is they are managing to raise their revenue more than expected. actually a record quarter. never before the first quarter for tui was so strong. that is because of two factors. a, demand for travel is strong, but also the pricing power of the company remains very strong. people want to travel and they are able to pay more. whether this is going to continue remains to be seen. for now, tui is sticking to their guidance for the year, but they are also saying the macroeconomics environment is

challenging, but they are also big wage grounds that you witness in germany and elsewhere. currently, that might mean the travel season going forward could stay strong. the shareholders will vote on the d-listing in the uk so the company can join the index in april this year. >> annette, thank you for the overview this year as we follow the price action of tui this morning. in other airline in focus, jetblue surges in extended trade after carl icahn took a stake in the company. he built the stake in the series of purchases in january and february says he plans to hold discussions with the company over a board seat. the airline said it was open to constructive dialogue. our colleagues will have more

with peter kern, ceo of expedia group. tune in for that interview at 13:00 cet. michell is up 4.5% today. the company has posted 3.6 billion euro. the french tiremaker warned the year will have an uncertain environment in europe and china the group said logistics stemming from the red sea crisis will weigh onperformance in the first quarter. and thyssenkrupp has record sales. the german hydrogen company had revenue of 208 million euro in the first quarter. the firm has had higher demand for the electric technology at the start of the year. one of the other positive stocks in the ftse 100. and randstad is in solid

expectations after the 90% drop of revenue. the world's largest staffing company flagged macro uncertainty ahead, but the firm is adapts. january was not a kind month to randstad. the stock is down .70% today. coming up on "street signs," former president trump is under fire for the nato comments. we will have details coming up next.

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nato funding will top the agenda at the nato conference this week after former president donald trump would encourage rus russia quote to do whatever the hell they want if they don't increase spending. we have annette asking how the change in the white house in november could impact the relations with the nato allies. >> possibility of donald trump

after he said he would not come to the aid of the europeans if there was a war has driven germany to take on a new orientation or new agreement to try to take a role in europe they have not taken before. the fundamental change is they can no longer make peace with the russians, but against the russians. this is a huge, huge change in the attitudes to back up the decision making in germany. the second, of course, is germany refuses to do things alone. we see this with the decisions on abrams tanks and other things. on the other hand, they have a very important role in europe and scholz is trying to find a way to work with other europeans so he doesn't appear, germany doesn't appear to dominate, but he has a very strong influence in europe. it has changed in the 40 or 50 years i have been around here.

>> given the budget constraints, germany or the german government is having, are you convinced that germany will meet that 2% nato target? >> yes. i will tell you the culture acts of germany is in endless discussion. it doesn't seem to be a decision right now, but once the decision is made, the germans have carried it out. they have made the decision to intervene in ukraine and to rebuild their military. the defense minister has now talked about having the k kreitzblitz. they have 100 billion euro in the special funds which they

have now allocated most of it which brings them into the realm of 2% for the year. that fund should run out in five years. t they have already committed to the midterm budget process to make the 2% of the gdp as required or agreed this nato. >> european leraders have been reacting to former president trump over his comments. the eu's borrell said this is a silly idea and cannot rely on the humor of the former president of the united states. trump's words should act as a wake-up call for those who have not invested so much. in the press conference, scholz stressed the importance of security in europe.

>> these words from donald trump should act as a cold shower for those who believe is a real threat. we have to stand alone, still counting on cooperation with the united states. europe must do more to ensure security. >> nato's promise of protection is restrrestricted. any realization of nato support guarantee is irresponsible and dangerous and is in the interest of russia alone. no one can play or deal with europe's security. >> silvia, former president trump going on the attack again. once a favorite topic of his, nato, and the fact that the european countries are not reaching the threshold. you have been looking at the numbers. what is the situation now? >> the situation shows there is truth behind some of the comments from the former president donald trump. i want to set the scene because

what we're seeing at this stage is a renewed clash with the former president donald trump and nato. all because the former president said he would encourage russia to do whatever the hell they want with nato countries that are not respecting the 2% gdp in terms of the defense spending. we outlined reactions that we have seen thus far from nato members. i would highlight the comment from the secretary-general of nato. who said this undermines our security. the core values are at stake here. let's look at the numbers. we have looked at the latest report from nato with defense spending. in 2023, only 11 members of nato had 2% of defense spending. looking at the european countries, it shows the biggest

economies, france, germany, and italy and spain are not respecting that threshold. the bottom line and i want to show you the next slide is we have seen an increase in the overall defense spending budget of nato. back in 2014, we saw the budget of $910 billion. that has increased to $1.1 trillion in 2023. let me show you briefly how the money is spent. three pockets of cash for nato. they have what they call the civil budget. the running costs of the headquarters in brussels. the military budget used for deterrence activities and then finally the security investment program is used for military infrastructure such as air defense. all in all, joumanna, what we are seeing here is the renewed clash with the former president and nato. the key question here is whether this will actually leave

european countries to spend more when it comes to defense. >> it is taking me back to 2017 and 2018. there was similar dialogue going on. the way he expressed himself was very trumpian style and crass. there is truth to what he is saying with the european nations are not meeting that 2% threshold. my question, silvia, is how much of the united front there is within many of these broader european members and the allies? i thought it was interesting that when i linked out to you, we were talking about the comments from the estonia prime minister. even within the nato alliance, there is still disagreement of how much money should be put forward for defense spending. >> if you look at the comments from the countries that are respecting the 2% threshold, they will say everybody has to

respect that threshold. i would highlight when you look at how much poland has spent on defense. the number is higher than the united states. it depends where you look and which country is being assessed. it is the division with the nato countries. those respecting the 2% target and those that aren't. all in all, what they all agree here is the comments from donald trump are a step too far. saying whatever the hell they want in allowing russia to interfere with nato countries is a step too far. when it comes to that, every nato country has said they do not approve of the comments. the other question here when it comes to the actual spending, there is some truth in what donald trump has said. >> the agenda is set now for you as your security conference. there will be a lot of talk of how to respond which is what he

wanted. silvia, thank you for that. coming up on the show, the ceo of the sovereign wealth fund gives his take on the market. more on that interview coming up next.

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welcome back to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. european stocks retreat from the two-year high as investors turn cautious ahead of the critical u.s. inflation report today. tui takes off. shares moving higher in early trade after posting record revenue in the first quarter with investors set to vote on the future of the firm's london listing later today. the eu foreign policy chief hits at donald trump's remarks at nato saying the group cannot be an ala carte alliance, but olof scholz expects the u.s. to honor its commitments. >> we stick to it. the president of the united states sticks to it and i'm sure the american people will do so also. and oil prices edge up amid

fears middle east tension could disrupt supply as opec secretary-general advocates greater flexibility in the path to net zero. >> we firmly believe and we always advocate for the right to every country having its own energy transition pathway in o accordance and national circumstances. let's look at how european markets are faring. we are pulling back from the two-year high from the stoxx 600. it is down .40%. most of the european indices are in the red with the exception of the swiss index up .30%. healthcare is putting in a good day today. that is why the pharma heavy index is perp fofperforming. the cac 40 is down .40%. ftse 100 is down .10%.

we are seeing pharma at the top. we had strong macro data come in this morning. the employment growth coming in higher than expectations. bonuses still pointing to a tight labor market. investors have dialed down expectations of rate cuts for the year. we are pencilling in shy of 70 basis points of cuts for the year. strong wage data from the uk. how is that impacting currencies? this is the move in the pound which is trading on the back of the wage data up .20%. dollar/yen with the yen trading weaker against the dollar this year. it has moved a long way as investors there have dialed down their expectations of a hawkish move from the bank of japan. it tells you how far they are behind the rest of the world. the euro is not doing much.

107.60. bitcoin is back in focus again. this way. it is through $50,000 again. this is obviously a key milestone since the launch of the etf which was a big deal last month for bitcoin. as you can see, within of the last couple days, it has been a positive story for anyone who is invested in bitcoin which is through $50,000. we're back to levels not seen since the beginning of 2023. oil is in focus. we had a strong week for oil last week. the energy complex is up around 5%. you see brent is trading a little bit higher. .80% higher. $82 a barrel. wti is shy of $78 per barrel. for the year, energy is still up 8.8%. you have to think a lot that is

underpinned by the middle east right now. opec secretary-general has told cnbc that the organization does not see oil demand slowing and forecasting demand will rise to 116 million barrels a day. dan murphy has conducted that discussion. dan, if they don't see the demand slowing, why are they holding back on supply? >> reporter: that's an interesting question, joumanna. hello from the world government summit. i stepped off stage with the opec secretary-general. the focus on the conversation was on the future of oil in the global economy. this is a hot topic with the renewed focus on the global climate agenda and the cop-28 here in dubai. we asked the question because we have seen fossil fuels and economic development being

linked over the last few de decades. what is the role of oil moving forward as we advance the energy transition that cop-28 demands? he said oil is still going to be necessary, particularly when it comes to fuelling the rising economies of india and maybe to a lesser extent china as well. this was also a really important moment to ask the opec secretary-general how he is viewing the market balance and the geopolitical headlines we see against that back drop and then what opec's future role is with market management moving forward. on the question of peak oil demand, he gave a cleara answer that any suggestion that peak oil is here is premature. listen in. >> we take the approach that all forms of energy will be required. no single source offing energy will replace another.

especially oil. it is 30% of the global energy mix. it is significant. when you add gas to that, we are talking close to 60%. 60% of the mix, oil and gas is a major component that grows in future years out to 2025. to give you a glimpse of the long-term outlook, oil will tries 116 million barrels a day by 2045. that requires investment in oil and industry and the ordiner of $16 billion a year. there are two simple reasons. you cannot just unplug from the current energy system overnight. we have to deal with energy transition with pragmatism and realism. taking into account that 30% of the energy mix is massive. it is not simple to just replace

overnight. >> reporter: with regards to current market pricing, he was asked on stage yesterday at the different event who or not he thought oil was in a goldilock range. he agreed because we have seen opec holding back supply and at the same time there were questions asked if oil should be higher in the environment given the geopolitical tensions. his oroyal highness said it is not because opec is focusing on energy management here. those comments were echoed a few moments ago when i asked the same question if he sees volatility in the price to come. he said investors can trust the opec market here. >> thank you, dan, for making it quickly down to speak with us. i know you were on the panel a few minutes ago.

there is a lot going on with the world government summit. it is not just oil and energy, but you have been speaking with key investors about the investment climate. you caught up with the head of the sovereign wealth fund. what does mubadala have to say about the investing? >> reporter: $276 billion. this was an important c conve conversation. important to get a sense about where he sees global capital flows in it the year ahead and what trends he is seeing in pe and investment in the next 12-to-24 months. the key take away from the conversation is he clearly sees the united states as the market to be exposed to and also not discounting the fact we are seeing cheap netness in china a

clear opportunity in india as well. here is some of our exchange. >> the united states will remain a ver a very attractive market. a very clear trajectory in how the economy will continue to grow. it is a hub for innovation. it is difficult to compete with that creative and innovative economy that the u.s. has in terms of the cash flow and public market systems it has there and access to talent. the u.s. is well positioned and far ahead of other countries. >> reporter: mubarak speaking on stage at the government summit here yesterday. joumanna, a really interesting conversation and timely conversation given the size and role and for thaws wenow see globally on the sovereign weth

f w wealth fund. >> dan, thank you very much for your discussions. speaking to cnbc earlier, the iaea executive director emphasized the need for companies to follow through on the green pledges with action. >> oil and gas executives say they want to be part of the clear energy transition and their companies and strategies are in line with the paris agreement. on the other hand, when we look at the numbers, which we do at the iaea, we see only 2.5% of the investment goes to clean energy and 97.5% goes toward traditional operations. there is a major, major gap. they say they will do in terms of the investment strategy.

switching gears, you see what i did there, luxury carmaker and formula 1 team aston martin has added three cars to the lineup. f1 car and race car and sports edition will head to le mans in 2024. it was announced at silverstone yesterday. the chairman says that f1 has had a transformative impact on the brand bringing in new customers. arabile sat down with the chairman yesterday and asked about the electric vehicle plans and challenges facing the business. >> we haven't felt geopolitical factors or any effect from what is going on from around the world with the conflicts. we have had our issues delivering new product to market which took us a month or two longer than anticipated like traditional other oems. everything is on track. our life really started first when we launched our dbx, which

took 20% market share in the luxury high performance suv market. that has become a significant portion of our business today. that was our first on the building block. the second is to deliver the front engine cars. we delivered the cars in april last year. the finale is the next sports car by the end of the year followed by the full program. we are on track to deliver. coming up on the show, we will be speaking to ukraine's minister for energy. that exclusive cnbc interview is coming up next.

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welcome back to the show. three eu owefficials confirmed that it is considering sanctions helping to russia circumvent sanctions. the eu has proposed trade restrictions on 20 companies

accused of supporting the russia war in ukraine. ambassadors will debate the proposal tomorrow according to cnbc sources. a u.s. spending bill has cleared the final hurdle in the senate. the vote is expected later today for ukraine. it is expected to stall in the house in the stiff opposition from republicans. i'm happy to say german galushchenko is here to discuss this with me. let's discuss this aid package out of the u.s. it is difficult to get passed this time around. it looks like it may not get passed through the house this time. what is the package or non-passage mean for you and how would it impact the energy

sector? >> thank you for the question. it is really important and first of all, i would now say about the energysector because russians did continue attacking the ukrainian energy systems. there were massive attacks from october until the 9th of march every day and every night with attacks to the energy system. this winter, they are also attacking, but due to the air defense increasing and what we are talking about is the modern air defensive system defense sy patriots, it allows us to supply energy and heating to our residents. this money is needed for increasing of air defense systems for ukraine. it is directly influencing the supply of electricity and heat.

>> what is your level of concern regarding the republicans increasing amount of opposition to supplying further aid to ukraine? how worried are you about the potential to get more money out of the u.s.? >> you know, i think that is very important to understand that all the attacks which russians still continue, that is the main goal of the attacks to make ukrainians suffer. they don't even hide these goals. that's why when we are talking about the package and i was in the city in november and had discussions with representatives. we are still having the war and we are protecting the values.

the consensus of the delay is very important. you understand, this is impacting the people in ukraine. >> how has the energy situation this winter differed from the prior winter in terms of what you have done to safeguard the energy supply? >> this winter, we are more stable in the energy system. first of all, i already mentioned this is due to the increasing of air defense systems in ukraine. last year, we did incredible moves with the impact of the previous attacks was all over ukraine. this winter, we supplied electricity and heating for our consumers almost without restriction. of course, we have some restriction in the case of where

the battle field is not far. they also had the impact on our energy system. >> the russian energy company gazprom said it would still ship to europe via ukraine. my question to you is why russian gas is still transiting through ukraine given you are in the midst of the war? >> that is true. the average transit is volumes of gas is 109 million units per day. that is important to understand. that is the issue of ukraine and ukraine's obligation to the europe partners. that is not about the russians.

we still continue to transit gas because the gas is needed for a number of european countries. this contract will end at the end of this year. i think it is very important to understand that european countries like germany and austria and yesterday was the great message from the minister that a lot of companies really did incredible jobs just to almost stop any dependence on russian gas. >> a couple ofmonths ago, i spoke to the ceo of nat gas. he said the goal is for ukraine to become the battery hub for europe. how far away are we from realizing that dream? >> that is really what we will achieve. i'm sure we will achieve this goal because we have all conditions for this and that is not only the production of

electricity in ukraine. during the war, in 2022, we started the electricity to europe. the gas storage -- we have the biggest gas storage in europe. i can tell this winter, we already store gas from our european partners. that's really very important because that is a matter of security of supply for european countries. i'm sure ukraine will realize this plan. it is part of our energy strategy. >> before i let you go, i want to ask you to respond to the comments from former president donald trump about the nato

allies. what is your response to that? >> it is important to understand there is no red line for russia. we are now the battlefield. we will try as long as needed. we need the solidarity of our partners. it is very important because the victory of ukraine is more about the war and the victory of democratic values against the tierney. >> thank you. the minister of energy for ukraine. let's turn to markets now. the picture is somewhat soggy for european trading. all of the indices trading under water. the swiss index is a relative out performer. an uptick in healthcare stocks giving that sector a boost. the dax is down .60%.

ftse 100 is trading flat now. we recovered after the employment data came through the market pairing back the expectations of rate cuts. we are sitting shy of 70 basis points for the year. as for u.s. futures, a pivotal day coming up. the u.s. cpi print. our colleagues will talk about that which could be market moving. all of the three market majors are seen opening in negative territory. s&p is 14 points lower. dow is 15 and the nasdaq down the 80. that is it for the show today. i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is many couldi coming up next. thank you for watching.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." falling for records. stocks slipping from all-time highs ahead of the key inflation report due out this morning. prices are expected to show the smallest gains in years. and carl icahn takes to the skies in the latest campaign. the target seeing the stock pop if in the pre-market. and stock rally on arm