were you worried the wedding would be too much? nahhhh... (inner monologue) another destination wedding?? why can't they use my backyard!! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so we don't have to worry. empower. what's next. welcome, everybody, to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen in for kelly evans. here's what's ahead this hour. timeline turmoil. today's inflation rates throwing when and how much the fed may cut rates into question. our market guests aren't surprised, and they see plenty of opportunities in ek caquitied stocks. plus, the latest on the bitcoin etf flows, after an initial exodus from gray scales etf. that has now stabilize.

the dwlglobal head of etfs is h. and three more names getting ready to report, including one that has turned our trader from bidder to buyer. that is all ahead. but first, a check on the markets. stocks sliding on that hotter than expected inflation report and unrenewed certainty around rate cuts, sending yields higher. the ten-year at 4.285%. and that cpi report, the most watched and most volatile name in that trade, new york community trade down in today's session. meantime, let's get more on that cpi report and what it's doing to the rate cut timeline with cnbc's steve liesman. steve, how big a surprise was this, and what is the -- what are the reverberations here? >> well, it's shredding the

timeline, tyler. that's really the big story here, calling into question this battle we have against inflation. it really did suffer a setback today with this cp ifx report. it has the market rethinking the fed and what it will take economically to hit the 2% inflation market. headline, a tick higher than the estimated 0.3. the year over year going the other way was expected to fall. instead it rose to 3.1%. the core, a tick higher than the estimate, as well. and there is the core year over year, rising by 0.2 instead of falling. the optimistic view of this upside surprise, there were several one-off price increases in january, which is a time when businesses raise prices, along with the reversal of holiday season discounting, housing inflation a big part of the increase. and that is contrary to the market showing rents falling.

meanwhile, the fed's preferred inflation indicator has a lower weighting for housing. then there's the pessimistic view that we've been through the easy part of disinflation, powered by the supply chains normalizing. and now the journey from three to two is proving tougher and the pessimistic view is winning out today in stocks, bonds and the fed funds future market. back in market, futures looked for 100 basis points of cuts. that rose to 175 after a good december inflation data. now back to where we were, just four 25 basis points built in, instead of seven. markets are now skeptical of that may start to the cuts, where the cut probability is now below 40%. the fed expected a burny ride

here on these inflation numbers. it warned markets about the possibility. but most economists today, tyler, not yet abandoning the general view that inflation is going to continue declining. just maybe going to take a few more months to prove them right. >> the bottom line is, inflation does seem to be coming down, but maybe not as fast as the predictors would suggest, or had hoped for. can you walk us through the probabilities on rate cuts, sort of month by month, or meeting by meeting? >> yeah. let me give you some fresh krkroet -- quotes here, tyler. if you have a list, take march and put a line through that, that's not happening. you can kind of start to write off may. that was my forecast month. i'm now a bit dovish. i had been hawk hish.

june, a little more solid, 77%. but if this data keeps coming in this way, the market will keep pushing it out further. you don't get to a firm place until you're in the july area, where you're up in the 99% range where probability for a rate cut. >> all right, steve liesman, thank you very much. let's move on now, as both of our next guests agree that rate cuts are off the table for now, and one says we may even have to wait until the end of the year to get the first one. that would be max wasserman, from miramar capital. also joining us is bryce dodi from s.i.t. investment associates. max, let me begin with you. what is your best guess as to when the fed cuts rates and how many times this year? >> thank you for having me. i think if you listen to the federal chairman powell, he's telling you that they need more information, and we think inflation is stickier on the way down. this last percent and a half

they're looking for will take time. so we could see potentially 25, maybe even up to 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, but we would be surprised to see it before the fourth quarter. we think people are just overly optimistic. that's what is just happening here today is people have built up such an expectation of rate cuts that anything that throws a monkey wrench will scare them. i don't expect a cut if you have one at the end of the year. >> bryce, can the stock market continue to make headway if the interest rate environment isn't a matter of sort of settled policy? >> no. i think the equity market that has to deal with these headwinds because of the uncertainty. uncertainty always drives equities down, or at least certainly keeps a lid on the broader markets. as a bond investor, it's win-win either way. you earn a higher yield for

longer, and these bond yields are at very nice attractive, real yields over inflation still. so it's not a problem there. for the fed, it's lose-lose. they are part of the problem. so they're driving up costs for businesses, businesses are having to finance at 8% to 12%. those costs get passed through into cost of goods which drives up inflation. they have mortgage rates up so hi high, it's causing housing to be expensive. so for them, they're their own problem. >> so it's a nice time to own fixed income, bryce, i hear you saying. i'm going to ask you where in eex -- fixed income might be the most profitable investments, but you think that the -- you don't think, even though rates have gone back up from where they were a few weeks ago, you don't think that we're going to test the high yields from last fall,

do you? >> no, i don't. i think we're passed the peak in rates, and that it's just a matter of time before investors kind of realize that it's inevitable that yields will come down. i like looking at the two-year treasury -- >> i was going to ask you, where are the sweet spots in fixed income right now? >> i love the belly of the curve, because the two-year maturity always is looking at where fed funds will be two years from now. so let's say come this summer, say june, people will expect the fed funds rate to be a lot lower june than they are two years from now. so that yield curve will do really well between now and then. and we like the mortgage sector in particular. you can get government agency guaranteed mortgages over 5% right now, and you'll probably get a little price appreciation, as the spreads narrow with banks kind of coming back in and

competing for loans again. all of that will be beneficial for that sector. >> max, you have three stocks, only one of which is the magnificent seven. that would be microsoft. you can make the case for it, as well as genuine parts and general die nam eks. -- dynamics. >> we're a dividend growth investor. we like microsoft, and we like the concept of ai in the early stages. so right now, azure is growing at 28%, six points of that is ai. they have 53,000 customers and a third of that has come down in 12 months. so it's incredible opportunities going forward. and the gaming side has 200 million monthly active users. so the opportunity in gaming, with the acquisition of activision is tremendous for them. we wait for pullbacks before we will add more to it. general parts, automotive. so if you look at the average

age of a used car is about 12 years. people have to spend $1100 to $1300 a year to replace the cars. the cost of buying new cars is astronomical. inflation has hit into the cost of them, borrowing costs are high. so general parts owns about 11,000 napa centers. so we think anything that repairs these used cars is a good place to be. for general dynamics, we like the defense side. we have the nuclear subs, the demand for the abrams tank, stryker. but also general dynamics is 20% into gulf streams. as they come online, it's a great opportunity coming forward. each one are dividend growers. general dynamics is 2%, all growing their dividends roughly around 7%. so we think they are great places to be. in technology, which we have investments in, we think they're rich right now. we like looking at other areas

of the market. our portfolio gives approximately 3% dividend yield with a 7% dividend growth. so we are getting roughly 60% to 70% of the treasuries, so we think we're in a good place. >> bryce, why do you like residential mortgage bonds? >> the mortgage rates are getting really high. there's been a 3% spread over the ten-year, which is really unusual. it should only be 2%. but banks that are in such fragile shape that they haven't stepped up. that's created a lot of long mortgages because they're just not seeing the refinancing activity. that's all about to change. so as banks get more competitive, the mortgage rate can come down, even if the ten-year treasury doesn't move. so that's going to help shorten up the average life of these bonds and put them right in the sweet spot of the curve we like. plus, you have the government guarantee against defaults.

>> gentlemen, thank you very much. we appreciate your perspectives today. thanks. >> thank you. coming up, bitcoin moving lower along with the broader market, down 3%, after hitting $50,000 for first time in more than two years. up next, we'll speak with gray scales global head of etfs about the rollout of its bitcoin etf. a trio of gaming economy stocks set to report today. we'll bring you the numbers and the narratives to know for airbnb, instacart and lyft. as we head to the break, here's one more look at the markets. the dow at session lows, the worst day since march. wow.

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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. bitcoin moving lower today, but still hovering near its highest level in more than two years after breaking through 50,000. prices recently saw some selling pressure following the s.e.c.'s approval of spot etfs about a month ago, so what does investor demand for these new products look like? bob joins us now with david labau from gray scales. bob, the floor is yours. >> we're here with the big etf exchange conference in miami beach. yes, it's miami beach behind me, the real miami beach. we're talking about bitcoin,

bitcoin etfs. congratulations. the big launch happened last month. ten spot bitcoin etfs launching, including yours. two questions. number one, how is the tracking? are they accurately tracking bitcoin? and how are the flows? what kind of investor interest are you getting? >> so the tracking has been really remarkable. we've seen the bitcoin etfs really doing a great job of holding very tight, tracking the funds very tightly. and we have seen a liquidity profile that's been indicative of what we anticipated. we have a ten-year track record and over a million investors and over $20 billion in assets. so we're seeing what we anticipate. >> are you happy with the flows? you had 26 billion, you had an existing fund. you converted it, i see about $6 billion in outflows. not bad. modest inflows into the rest of them. are you happy with where you are right now? you have about $20 billion from '26. do you want more? how would you characterize

what's happening? >> when you're a leader in the market and have the largest fund and the product that is looked to for the greatest liquidity and for both investment opportunity and also an access vehicle, you're going to see outflows. we anticipated those outflows. we're really happy to see that the product is behaving as designed, tracking the underlying asset very tightly. and candidly, bob, this product is brand new and we didn't know how it was going to work. we're really excited about that. >> it was amazing to watch day by day, they kept watching the fees. you're charging 1.5%. everybody else is zero or 19, 20 base i points after six months. are you going to keep that fee? >> the fee is one component to the product and the decision track that an investor will make. when you look at ten-year track record and liquidity characteristics of the product, those are other factors.

>> you can't go to a train station without seeing a gray scale ad. you seem to be in a blitzkrieg trying to convince the country everybody should invest in the bitcoin etf. >> etfs started with s&p 500 exposure 30 years ago. 20 years ago, they brought gold to market. this is another, you know, point of evolution and maturity for the etf market. bringing bitcoin to the broadest range to investors in a transparent fashion. >> can you convince advisers to buy bitcoin? there's a whole big program where you're on a blitzkrieg to convince everyone it's safe. gary ganzler fired a broad shot across the bow, who admitted we lost the gray scale's case, but you are required to follow regulation, and that's a warning shot saying you, investment advisers, better be careful

about recommending bitcoin and make sure it's appropriate for the people that you are advising. that seems to be a shot across the bow. you're saying you could get sued easily. >> there's a couple of things. this is about coin investing into the regulatory perimeter. we respected the process. we had a disagreement but settled that. we'll respect the process at all of those platforms and all the independent adviser platforms and the wire house platforms to ensure we're going through due diligence process, that they understand what our product is. it's got a ten-year track record and it's the largest in the world. and also that they understand who gray scale is. i've long said not every etf is created equally, and we will comply with regulatory standards, as well. >> so you are convinced that you can show people this is the path? i always joke about bitcoin for grandma, but it may not be suit able for that. you think there is a clear legal

path that this is what you need to do to recommend bitcoin to investors. it's a new product, it's hard to figure out. >> well, independent wealth management platforms have their process of due diligence. we are going to comply with that, and we think that etfs have long been building blocks for clients, and have demock atized investing for the broadest range of asset classes. this is a new example of that. now these platforms understand what an etf is and understand how to do due diligence and will give them the opportunity to diligence this asset inside the etf wrapper. so it will give them the opportunity to do so. >> where do we go from here? do you want to speculate on where the price might be? we're at $50,000 right now. we had a dip right after the bitcoin etf's launch, but it's come back a little bit. where do we go from here? >> it's a volatile asset, and we'll see the bitcoin price go down and up. from simple supply/demand, we

are increasing the demand profile, because we are offering bitcoin in an etf wrapper that is understood by a broad range of investors and really increase the demand profile. we have a bitcoin coming up, which will decrease the supply. >> it is a legitimate asset class? your answer will be yes, but convincing america, why do i need to add bitcoin? i have stocks, bonds, cash, commodities. i might have real estate. can you convince the investing public it's a legitimate separate asset class? >> the question i get asked most is why would i buy a starbucks coffee with bitcoin? you probably wouldn't. if you are in a country that has hyper inflation and you can't trust that currency, you might use bitcoin as a currency. but as an aspect of your investment portfolio, it has gold-like properties. it's an emerging technology that has incredible growth, you know,

potential in your portfolio. the last thing that i would say about it, we have a lot of research on our website and risk adjusted returns suggest that over a two-year period -- >> i'm amazed at the talk of the industry. you can smell wall street running around this. options are coming out. leverage an inverse etfs. >> there's going to be an entire ecosystem of products based upon gbtc and it will be an opportunity for investors to have options and optionality. >> the big baseball is whether you can convince the public it's a truly new asset class. i don't think that's been settled. but it's a big step to get those to the bitcoin etfs. thanks very much for joining us. global head of etfs over at gray scale. tyler, back to you. >> bob, thank you very much. we appreciate it. we'll get more on the rise of bitcoin etfs tomorrow with

gary gensler on "squawkbox." don't miss that. coming up, disney one of the few bright spots today, but the rest of the media landscape not fairing as well. we'll take a closer look at the group after the break. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. the dow, worst day in 11 months. it really caught me by surprise, down 54 points. the russell 2,000, the biggest underperformer, down 3% with the nasdaq down 1.6%. here are some of the names hitting 52-week lows, including hormel. as you see there. on the flipside, waste management climbing 5% and hitting a new all-time high after beating earnings estimates. they also had a good golf tournament in phoenix over the weekend. cigma, walmart and travelers

also touching record highs today. shares of jet blue taking off the activist investor carl e icahn. he took twa private in the late '80s and drove it into bankruptcy. for more on that story, go to cnbc.com. let's go to bertha for a news update. >> i remember flying twa. a federal judge has tossed a lawsuit from a major pharmaceutical lobby group that challenged medicare's new powers to negotiate prescription drug prices. the decision is a win for the biden administration, as it faces other legal challenges this the price talks. mexican armed forces said they found and broke down a secret meth mega laboratory, making it

the largest drug lab bust ever with the current administration. the navy said it seized about 91,000 pounds of meth, and over a ton of chemicals used to make the drug. wichita police say that the man who stole the bronze jackie robinson statue was arrested on monday, and that the crime was financially motivated. the man was planning on selling it for scrap metal. the statue was cut from its base last moment at a wichita park where only its feet remained, and burnt remains of the statue were found five days later in a trash can at a nearby park. >> what a foolish thing. just mean spirited and foolish. bertha, thank you very much. media stocks on the move. let's bring in julia now with more. hey, julia. >> reporter: media stocks are getting hit hard.

paramount is down about 2%, but that company's stock was down as much as 4% earlier this morning after it announced it's laying off 3% of its workforce. this follows after last night, the company announced a record 123 million people watched the super bowl. shares are down about 2.5%. some other media giants are trading lower. roku shares are down about 4% ahead of earnings, coming up on thursday afternoon. and warner brothers discovery, shares are down about 4% after an analyst note yesterday lowered earnings estimates for the studios, citing "aquaman" underperformance. disney shares are in the green, now up 1% after yesterday. disney's board sent a letter to shareholders emphasizing the company's strong results and plan to deliver long-term shareholder value, aurnlurging

shareholders to vote for disney's nominees. meanwhile, comcast and fox, we see both of them are down just about 2%, and netflix shares is flat. back over to you. >> let's talk a little bit more. let's talk about the super bowl, by the way. 123 million people watching it on cbs and on digital platform paramount plus, i take it? >> reporter: that's right. but the vast majority on cbs. this was the most viewed event of all time. every year the super bowl is massive. last year, there were 115 million viewers. this year, that number inching up by about 8 million. so really showing not only the taylor swift effect, but the fact that all the streaming initiatives that the nfl did this past year, of course, thursday night football on amazon. there were those two games on peacock. all of that just growing interest in the league. >> i got two words for media. taylor swift. i think that's where the money

is. taylor swift. julia, thanks. coming up, we'll speak with one investment banking veteran with experience serving on a half dozen company boards about the challenges facing black and hispanic entrepreneurs and the steps he's taking to change that. and here's peeble's corporation founder sharing his story for black history month. >> my grandfather was a doorman at the marriott hotel for 41 years. but yet, me, his grandson, owned a marriott hotel a few miles away this the same city. here i am sitting in a club that was originally founded in 1926 that did not allow african americans on the property, yet alone members. here i am the owner of this club. that speaks to the greatness of america. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. -you can make this work. -we can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." while scaling up can be a challenge for any business, especially hard for black and

latino entrepreneurs who face greater funding hurdles. black founders raised half a percent of all venture dollars, the lowest number in recent history. my next guest hopes to ease some of those challenges and help transform the world of minority owned businesses. join us is less brun, who has raised nearly $1.5 billion for its first fund called project black. less, good to have you with us. >> great to be with you. >> why are the dollars in venture capital heading to minority owned enterprises so small? i mean, minuscule small. >> there are lots of reasons for that. i can go back to the early days of where most of these companies were founded by folks who relied on family and friends to provide any necessary capital rather than more conventional institution sources that most main stream folks might go to. if you think about the full

corporate life cycle spectrum, if you start off that small and struggling with capital and with customers that early on, it's awfully hard to grow. so we're trying to change the paradigm by which black and brown businesses are viewed, particularly black businesses. and really cause people to rethink how they think about these businesses generally. >> it's really been, as we look at the number of black-owned businesses and also other minority owned businesses again, black-owned businesses, the smallest fraction there. i guess it is a historical artifact. i mean, the fact that they are so rare comparatively. historical artifact of black access to capital, discriminatory loaning practices, redlines, et cetera, et cetera. am i right on that? >> absolutely. there are lots of historical reasons it looks the way it does. what we are trying to do at project black is to change the way people think about this.

apart from the number of black-owned numbers you highlighted, there are only five black-owned businesses are rar ratings of a billion or more in the united states. we're trying to increase that number by a whole order of magnitude with our $1.5 billion fund that we have raised and cause people to think of black differences differently. historically, black and brown vizes have been viewed as small and disadvantaged. we're trying to change the thinking of that to be large and advantaged, and compete for a larger piece of the pie rather than the small set asides and subsidies that have traditionally set aside for minority owned businesses. >> you have a real blue chip roster of funders in project black, including melody hobson, george lucas family foundation, qatari, salesforce, et cetera. you have already made, as i understand it, three acquisitions. my code, qc, and sorenson.

why them, and am i understanding that some of those don't happen to be at this point necessarily black owned. explain that wrinkle in the formula. >> sure. and you're pointing out the fundamental thesis of our investment strategy, which is there respect many black-owned businesses of scale. if you look at our investor base, you'll see a number of companies that are a large fortune 500 company, wanting to increase their spend with minority vendors, but having a difficult time with the k disconnect with a black-owned business and their need to provide purchase orders of significant scale. we're trying to acquire businesses that solve a pain point for the fortune 500 that aren't necessarily minority owned when we acquire them, but we convert them into minority owned businesses to allow those companies to expand the level of business they do with these

companies and solve for the promises -- begin to solve at least for the promises that they have made to any numberof their stake holders about how they will increase their spend with minor owned businesses. >> how do you convert these companies from what they are, not black-owned businesses to black-owned businesses, what's the process? >> great question. there's a certification process, as you can appreciate. the most highly recognized body for certifying minority owned businesses is the national minority supplier council, and they have a series of steps that need to be taken and a construct that needs to be acknowledged to be a black -- certified as a minority-owned business. among those are the percentage of equity ownership by minorities. 51% or more. among those are a predominantly minority -- majority minority board of directors and some significant representation of the c suite of minorities.

>> so as i look at this, if i'm understanding correctly, again here, what you're trying to do is scale up these minority owned businesses so that they can meaningfully sized suppliers to really big businesses? >> there you go. and in act, if you think about the way bigger businesses tend to grow, it's both organically and inorganically through acquisition. if you are one of the 161,000 plus black-owned businesses that are highlighted and you have reached a point where growth for you requires broader reach into the corporate community that you may not have access to, you're willing to be acquired by somebody, it would be wonderful if you would be acquired and brought in under the fold of a minority-owned business itself, so you don't lose the ethos, the attenuation to your own community and background that you have developed your business with over however long you might have owned it.

so not only do we represent the opportunity to acquire businesses that are not currently minority owned and convert them, but we represent the opportunity to be the umbrella so that they continue to grow in scale, as well. >> 2023 was a rough year for private equity. is that a year of opportunity for you or a year of challenge for you, 2023? and now, 2024? >> so if you think about -- if you harken back to the last financial crisis, the folks who made money in the private equity space were the folks who had a checkbook and were able to invest during the period where there was little capital being invested. folks who owned assets were in a desperate circumstance trying to sell those assets. people with capital were able to buy assets at attractive valuations. we found ourselves in a similar situation where we were fortunate enough to have raised our capital at a time when the

capital raising markets were more robust. interest rates were much lower. now we're in an environment where rates have increased. they're sort of flat, not growing. but certainly with today's cpi numbers as an example, unlikely that they declined meaningfully in the near term. people who have opportunities that need to transact, whether they be private equity firms or sellers will recognize they can't continue to plow the water the way they are and need greater access to capital and need to transact, they'll find their way to us, we'll find them at what i think will be attractive valuations this this environment. so we're very delighted at the current circumstance given our position. >> all right. less, thank you very much. and continued good luck to you and the folks at aerial alternatives. thank you. >> tyler, thank you. >> you bet. coming up, door dash, uber, lyft, planning a valentine's day strike for fair pay. will those efforts catch the attention of management? we'll find out after the bell

when lyft reports. a preview of those results, as well as airbnb and instacart in our gig edition of "tech check" that's next. and here is another look at stocks with the dow falling to new session lows as you see there, down nearly 580 points. having the worst day in 11 months. we'll be right back. a car is a car... is a spa. an office. hi! hello! a cinema. so automated. yes, the definition of a car changes... but one thing stays the same. it's a mercedes-benz.

a trio of gig economy stocks set to report after the bell, all three now turning to an age-old business model to drive profitability. deidre is here. deidre, explain it to us. >> reporter: okay, tyler. let me show you a chart first. i'm going to show you uber versus lyft versus inthat cart. you can see that over the last year, uber has separated itself from the pack, because it has

achieved sustainable profitability. a large part is efficiency in the main business, and the ceo driving that efficiency. but it's also been a new revenue stream. high margin advertising business has proved quick to grow, and is more profitable than the other business of ride sharing which uses real world inputs like drivers and cars. so add verytizing has proved the key for gig economies. instacart has been looking at it, but uber is projecting a run rate of $900 million for the next 12 mobnths. instacart will most $243 million this quarter. lyft is just getting started, but there is the promise that these companies can actually become profitable and sustainably so because of other revenue streams like advertising. but what's also happening tomorrow on valentine's day, a strike from drivers of lyft,

uber and doordash. that's the other important side of this equation. these regulatory battles and regulatory threats that could up end the entire business model are always present, and that's something for investors to keep in mind. >> i think of google, which is sort of a similar model in a way. google is a huge advertising company, right? that's how they where they make their money. so these companies seem to be taking a page from the google book. >> reporter: i mean, google's search ads have been called the greatest business model of all time. and even in recent days, we, and sometimes people point to that as the reason they won't disrupt themselves in the age of generative a ifx. it's too lucrative, and advertising is this pure business. when we talk about uber and lyft, it's unclear whether their

tech business is right, but advertising is hard to argue with that. you can just scale it at a very low cost and it's so lucrative. so that is sort of what they're relying on. airbnb is a different story, though. they don't really have advertising, but they've been able to become profitable sooner than any of the other companies that i just mentioned. so when they report tonight, i wonder if they will turn to that model. maybe not tonight, but what investors are going to be looking for is that growth, especially the travel demand comes down. >> very interesting. they haven't relied on advertising. the other companies, am i taking it a little too far that they would not be profitable but for advertising? uber for example, but you say basically imply that they can't be profitable without advertising. >> uber has become profitable, each without advertising. it's the main ride sharing business that became profitable. so it got there using its own

foundations, but what cost? the strike tomorrow, drivers are asking for fair pay. and there is a stat that they say in 2023, uber drivers monthly average gross earnings fell 17%. they say that lyft drivers increased 2.5%. so so, i don't know, maybe they're overcoming profitability by taking more. >> deirdre bosa, appreciate mitt. coming up, we're sticking with earnings. we'll get the trade of tlae more names reporting after the bell including one that is already, already down 17% so far this year. "the exchange" will be right back. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform

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wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. looking at robinhood, mgm and upstart in today's earnings exchange. i want to draw your attention to the dow, now down 590. it was down more than 600 at the lows just moments ago. you see that decline is we're told the worst since last march,

almost 11 months ago. down 1.5% the dow at 38,200 after the inflation report came in a little hotter than expected. let's get back to those trades in our earnings exchange. with juul financial founder and president. quint, good to see you. let's start off with robinhood, featured in movie "dumb money." barclays watching crypto trading. the firm sees growth potential in the uk and canada. what do you think of robinhood. >> tyler, thank you for having me. it's greet be back. if you can get past what they did during all that gamestop craze, you can still be unbiased, it looks to be turning the corner with the uptick in the equity market and the crypto market. the estimate is for a loss of penny per share. what's most interesting is, if you look at the balance sheet, they have about $10 per share of cash. so that makes it very

interesting. this is a buy for us here. >> very interesting. we have robinhood ceo joining us right here on "the exchange" after the results. you don't want to miss that. quint, let's go to mgm, shares are higher to kick off what has already been a big year for vegas. deutsche bank seeing positive trends there and macow. but warning the bet mgm app has competitors like draftkings vying for market share, so it is not clear unbroken field for mgm. what about mgm? >> yeah, this is tough for us. we have to go back to our discipline and try to avoid companies that have a tremendous amount of debt which mgm does. metrics welcome strong and hear a lot of positive things going on in vegas, especially after the super bowl. ultimately it's not a cheap stock. flat earnings going forward. selling 20 times those earnings

that are not growing. as i mentioned, it's just one we can't touch with a debt to equity over 8. we stay away from a company like this. upstart holdings, the fintech platform more than doubling. banks are suring up loans as concerns of consumer loan delinquencies rise. do you smell a squeeze here, quint? >> yeah. get out the popcorn. this one could be interesting. 40% of the float is short. you know, they're not profitable. it will be a loss. it could be just a better than expected loss. we're not in it. we can't buy a company like this. it's got debt. it's not profitable. but again, if you're in it and you participate if they do catch a spark and they get a squeeze, i think you sell those shares into the squeeze. we're not interested in this name until we see a real fundamental turn around? >> what do you think of the market dow down? >> it's a wake-up call. we have gotten very, very

stretched. the market tends to take the stairs up and elevator down. if you've been on the sidelines and waiting for an opportunity, i think this is going to be a good one. it could last a little while as we digest cpi data. we've run a very long way for a long time. pullbacks are welcome here. >> all right. quint, thank you very much. good to see you, my friend. >> you, too. >> you bet. that folks does it for "the exchange" on this bumpy day for the dow now down 599. the nasdaq under pressure as well today, but loop capital says to believe the earnings hype in tech names. believe the hype. we have the stocks they're getting more constructive on. courtney reagan getting ready to join me on set. we'll be back with you on the other side of this quick break. e u aomt.seyoin men ♪ instant things can transform. slipping out of balance into freefall. (the stock market is now down 23%). this is happening people. where there are so few certainties...

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♪ good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch" alongside courtney reagan, i'm tyler mathis. glad you could join us. stocks are selling off today after a hotter than expected read on inflation this morning. right now the dow is down 600 points on the button, court. >> as for the s&p 500, saying good-bye to that 5,000 level, at least for now. the nasdaq slightly underperforming today, losses across the magnificent seven, nvidia bucking the down trend. we'll have more on that later. >> no surprise. but the interest rate sensitive stocks are leading the way lower. look at the losses on