feelings right now. we can see that continuing to come down right now. >> all right, a lot of movers in general, though, today, and we're going to get more tomorrow, jon, including cisco after the bell. >> you never know what to expect, that's for sure. for now, that's going to do it for "overtime." >> "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. the big cpi selloff. the s&p dropping more than 2% after its lows. the dow seeing its worst day since last march. the yield on the ten-year, it's highest level in over two months. the culprit, a hot inflation report that sparked fears that a rate cut is not just around the corner. is this just the start of the air coming out of this rally and how much more pain is left to come? we'll debate that. plus, a regional wreck. the kre etf with its lowest close since late november. which banks will feel the pain? but it wasn't all bad news.

a handful of stocks were hitting 52-week highs or better. we'll get a look at the surprising standouts. and afterhours action that may set a better tone for tomorrow. inside the moves of lyft, robinhood, and zillow. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with that cpi that sparked selloff. stocks closing off their lows. the dow shedding 500 points, the biggest loss since last march. the nasdaq lost 1.8%. rate sensitive small caps getting particularly hard-hit. the russell 2,000 down nearly 4%. the biggest one-day drop since june 2022. inflation print rip ming through the treasury market. the ten-year yield crossing 4.3%. its highest level since december 1st. the two-year yield also at two-month highs. and volatility spiked sharply. the vix briefly crossing above 17 for first time since november. so, after a huge run for stocks, is this the tipping point?

is this the one you've been waiting for, guy? >> well, we've seen things like this before that have not -- they've not turned into anything. however, i mean, the vix was elevated yesterday on a pretty benign day and we actually traded up to 18 today in the vix before pulling back. the rates move, to me, makes sense, though i didn't think we were going to go down to 3.80. the tlt, which measures this, despite that huge rally in the tlt and yields coming off, still made a series of lower highs and lower lows since april 2020. i think the tlt continues to go lower. i think the vix stays elevated. and yeah, i think it's the beginning of something in the market, without question. >> you believed that rates would go higher. >> yeah. part of it is just looking at charts, part of it is understanding. we heard about some spending for ukraine, there's some dynamics in terms of the inflation front and where rates can be sticky for technical reasons. there is a 23% move in the s&p since october 26th. i mean, there's a view that somebody doesn't have to be -- i

kind of feel like we live in a world where if you don't totally agree with somebody, you don't agree with anything they say. well, back to this metaphor, you know, stocks or bonds -- excuse me, stocks or rates, one of them is totally wrong. i don't think one of them is totally wrong, but you can't have it both ways here. you can't have a world where rates have gone significantly higher and equities are trading at a higher multiple and acts as if higher rates don't matter. i understand there are things, including a.i., massive tech spend, normalization of the economy, a job market that's on fire, these are all reasons to want to own equities, and by the way, the economy feels great, and earnings have been great. anyway. today kind of feels like a relief, actually. honestly, as someone that allocates capital, it's nice to see markets acting rationally. >> in one were to make this case this was a fomo-fueled rally, that a.i. boosted a lot of this, nvidia closed basically flat on the day. you would think if we had a selloff in the nasdaq, you would

want -- if you believe we are in for a flush and the market is due, i would think that you would want to see that flush in nvidia, as well, as the poster child for this market rally. >> right. and it will be the last battle fought. and lilly was green. these are two of the poster children for two of the biggest trends we've seen in the economy, in the markets in a very long time and they sucked a lot of money into them and they're going to be -- they're going to get defended. until the story is changed. and i think the nvidia story is going to change before thelilly story. i focus on things, like last night, you call ed me sarcastic or something -- >> what? what a surprise. >> she wanted to be really clear that nobody thought i was getting geeked up about things in general, but the point is, the fact that you have the russell almost reverse those gains that we've had over the last week or so in one fell swoop, right, to me, i think the russell, and guy's pointed this out on many occasions, has been

a really good indicator. it's one of those things when it gives it up, the large caps are not going to follow too long after. i agree with what tim said wholeheartedly. if you look at the move that we had, the last time the ten-year yield was at 4.3%, the s&p was below 4,600, and i get it. earnings have come in better, gdp has come in better, but talk to me when it's going to be like for this economy with higher rates for longer, with a dollar that's rallied the way it did, you know what i mean? so much of these earnings are coming from u.s. multinationals, right? and sooner or later, if inflation is picking back up, the ability for companies to push through those input costs is going to get that much worse. they've been doing it for years, right? so, to me, this is probably the year that it gets a bit rockier. last year seemed kind of easy for the bulls. >> so, we have this one data point now, and it's not surprising that the market reacted the way it should. i sort of agree with your analysis of, it was a relief. if we step back just a tiny bit

and squint, we are where we were tuesday, so, even though this seemed like a big selloff, it really wasn't, when you think about how extraordinary the move has been, so, we have this one data point, it sort of gives us a look at how the market may react if we get some more data points. i'm actually sort of surprised that the market's pricing in as high a likelihood a cut in june as it is, right? i would think that waiting awhile seems to be the right thing to do. but i think to your point, dan, about a.i., i mean, it was -- nvidia was down for an hour, maybe? i'm not sure when it turned around. i think people want to play it out and see where, you know, how incredible can these earnings be? i don't know. so, i didn't do a lot of anything today. >> doesn't that make you nervous that the entire market is waiting on that one data point next week? like, literally. i've heard it again and again all day on the network, you know, i just see it on the internet. everyone's waiting for this one

company that just gained $900 billion in market cap in six weeks based on what their customers have said, based on what their competitors have said. if you think the hopes and dreams are all encapsulated in one earnings report in a company that has absolutely gone parabolic in a way that every other time in the history of the markets, when we've seen that sort of behavior, it corrects the other way and usually overcorrects the other way. as good as the story may be. so, i just look at this and say, okay, i'm a little early in being pessimistic on the stock move, not on the technology and not on the implications for the economy and how it's going to flow through so many different transformative things over the years, decades, whatever the heck it is, but that is encollapse lated. a trillion dollars in two months seems a little overdone and now the whole market, every investor is waiting for that one thing? >> the examples you gave at the beginning of the show in terms of what's captured investor imagination, what has been the poster children for this market rally, lilly, as well as nvidia, every single testing point,

they've delivered. despite these concerns. what if they don't deliver this time? so much is built into the stock. >> yes, but nvidia twice has traded down, even when they delivered. >> that's true. >> so, you know -- >> but it's gone higher. >> way higher. >> am i concerned? yeah, i am. it's expensive. i'll be selling going into it. >> of all the stocks, maybe not in december 25th or late, right before new year's, if you asked someone in november, which is the stock of the megacaps that's not going to be up 45% year to date through february 13th, you were probably going to say it was nvidia. there's no way they were going to do what they did last year and they're on a pace to far exceed it. it gets back to, i believe in a combination of things. i care about dynamics as they relate to positioning. the bank of america fund managers survey came out and they said, tech positioning is its highest since august of, guess what, 2000. it's kind of an ugly sound when you think about where the calendar was and what the

markets did. and then the flip side, some other data points in there, it's fascinating stuff. only statistics. but if you believe in contrarian dynamics, only 7% of the people filling out that survey last week, or two weeks ago, they dom piled the data before the cpi number. only 7% thought inflation was going to be sticky and move higher this year. 93% think it's going lower. that means most of those people believe there is no inflation. and if we show a little bit, some of the positioning tells you that this market is going to have to eact to that. >> karen's spot-on in terms of the s&p. what has changed, though, are yields are obviously much higher, and that move in the vix, don't underestimate a move up to 18 today on what was not a crazy panic day. that's a pretty significant move. but if you want a poster child for some of the craziness, look at arm holdings. our crack staff in ec can put up a chart. gap opened higher yesterday. huge amount of volume. traded 12, 13 times normal volume. created that island. gap opened lower today on 70 million shares. this is a company now with $120

billion market cap that's going to do $4 billion maybe of revenues next year. i mean, you can do that math. that's extended in any universe that you live in. >> part of that fund manager survey was mag seven was the most overcrowded trade since long dollar october of 2022. >> right. >> very long trade. and so, in terms of positioning, we've seen inflation come down, and we've seen the mag seven go higher. we've seen rates go up, we've seen the mag seven go higher. so, in this environment, it seems like, you know, you could write that sort of context where the mag seven would move higher. >> yes. and if we start to see slower growth, they stay defense. . when positioning is as offsides as it is, and i think there's been some fomo chasing the stocks. and that's where you get to. i just think there are some elements about a day when rates rocketed higher, where you had more inflation, more stocks started to react to some of this stuff, and you had financials,

really in the teeth. like, new york community bank, i realize it's a poster child for things that could go wrong, but you can't tell me that on a day like today, that doesn't also put a bright light on credit issues that are eventual. doesn't mean it has to be 2008. it means there's a commercial real estate market that doesn't make sense in terms of the spreads and in terms of the core parts of that business. earnings alert now on shares of lyft. the stock had been up almost 70% afterhours, but now up only 16%. deirdre bosa is here with the headline that caused the stock to come back to earth, if you can call 17% back to earth. d-bo? >> melissa, i have never seen anything like this. it is wild. lyft on the earnings call just corrected its earnings press release. says that it meant ebitda margin expansion will be 50 basis points, with one zero, not 500 basis points, withtwo zeros. that is a major correction. i just had to go back to the earnings release and check it,

like, five times. they did write 500 basis points. like you said, shares went to almost -- up 60% in the afterhours to 15%. only the bright side, they are still up more than 15%, part of that has to do with those improved financials, but not quite as improved as some people might have first thought. we'll continue to listen to that call and bring you more commentary, mel. >> that is fascinating. d d-bo, thank you. obviously, they can't tell that it makes no sense, 500, but -- >> that speaks to david last week, exactly the points he made. machines don't want to say, wait a second, maybe that's a mistake, they read that, and that's what happens. that's why the market function, not broken, changed. that felt a little broken with that. >> i think they will be sued within an hour. >> really? >> yeah. but -- i mean, i don't know that anyone was particularly disadvantaged. they all got the wrong information at exactly the same time. right? >> right. >> but i wouldn't be surprised if that happened. >> how are you harmed, if you are short, if you are -- i mean -- you had to prove harm,

right, if you are suing? >> ah -- that -- that you -- i don't know, that you bought it because you saw margins were going to be -- and that was -- that was -- >> yeah, if you are buying a stock up 70% because you thought there was, you know, 500 basis points of -- you should be neutered and not in the market anyway. >> i don't know. >> i'm just saying, up 70%? >> there was nothing sarcastic about that. >> no, i was being serious. not that i would do the neutering, but low boltmy or something? >> punished. they should be pinnished. >> nobody's been hurt in this other than financials. >> someone that's long lyft and sees a lot of great things in these numbers, quarterly bookings were up 17%. 40 million users, 25% were new users. and one of the things i guess i've always felt as a shareholder of lyft, i was waiting for profitability, not just adjusted profitability, so, let's see. but clearly, margins are getting better, but the dynamic of -- an

effective duopoly. in a city where i can't get taxis anymore, they made the taxis unaffordable, so, in every major city in the country, you have two options, and believe it or not, they're not cheap options, but they're the cheapest option, sorry, yellow, guys. i think the yellow cabs have just become difficult. a company that's beenwaiting for normalization, the dynamics in ride share, their ability to pass on higher prices, i think continues. and i think the stock's going higher. may not be 70% today, but i think you're staying in the stock for. that. let's move on banks here. getting hit hard in today's selloff. the kbe falling 3.6%. and the kre getting hit even harder, down more than 4%. here to break down where we go from here is danny montgomery scott, director of research, christopher marinak.

thank you for being with us. >> thank you. >> let's just say for argument sake rates stay where they are right now. does that do anything in terms of your thesis for regionals? >> not really. i think it's a mixed impact. i think higher loan yields are going to be positive for banks. i think the net interest margin stabilization theme that had been vigorous the last four to six weeks probably gets pushed out one quarter. that, to me, is the worst case scenario. i think the question ultimately is, the five-year treasury going back to 5%, not $4.32, where it closed today if we go back to last year's highs, and i think it's going to be more of a struggle for the stocks and for the business. i'm not convinced that that's going to happen, though. >> when do you think we see the biggest impact, the peak in terms of, you know, defaults, delinquencies from commercial real estate? how much of lag is it? there's certainly not, you know, leading, so, in the great financial crisis, if you look at

the st. louis fed data, it shows key one of 2010, after the great financial crisis, that was the peak, in terms of delinquencies for commercial real estate. where do you see it? how much of a lag? and are we -- should we price that in right now, that delayed impact? >> sure. i think it's being priced in. i think it will continue to be. i think the answer to your question, the second half of '25. it takes several quarters to recognize risk in the industry. we started last year, so, we're a few innings into this, but to me, it's going to gho into 2026. so, i think your peak will be the second half of '25. banks, the good news is they have really good cash flow. i think capital is going to actually continue to build while they go along. and so, sure, we're going to struggle on net interest margin and deposit costs, but the reality is, the banks have the earnings to fund the reserves, to handle the risk. it's just not pleasant, as you go through the process. >> it's karn, en, thanks for be

on. so, when do you think the stock prices will be under the most pressure? at that same time or before that? >> so, i think it's happening before, karen, because the reality is, we have already a lot of conjecture about how bad commercial real estate is and how bad losses are. so, the stocks are down way in advance of that. so, we still have a little bit of premium on price to book, and pes for the group. although, i think many stocks are at a discount to where they usually trade. the question's going to be, where are earnings going to be in a year from now, tangible book. i feel earnings and tangible book will be higher. it's just going to be a slow play, as we roll through. i this i tnk the worries are goo continue. >> chris, great to speak with you, thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> where are we on this trade, do you think, guy? >> i think these banks have probably got -- i mean, listen, bank of america is nowhere close to its all-time high, and that makes sense. if you think rates are going

higher, which tim does, i do, as well, bank of america, at 5% in ten-year back in october, had a hold to maturity loss on their balance sheet of $115 billion. that has not changed. the only thing that's changed are rates. if rates continue to go up, i think bank of america feels the pain. >> i think in the regional banks, it's a case of dead money. i just -- i don't know that there has to be a disaster here. it's hard to see how the fundamentals get higher. nycb trades at .4 price to tangible book. that's not the one you need to go get, but the price is, commercial real estate trends in other areas any better? they're not. and they're at least going to continue to percolate. that's what everyone has said here. loans are going to roll off. sweetheart leases that a lot of the landlords have are going to roll off. coming up, a huge slate of earnings to bring to you. after today's major selloff, could some of the big moves afterhours set the stage for a big bounce-back tomorrow? the numbers out of all the quarters ahead. plus, a pulse check on

energy. nat gas down near ly 50%. the reasons behind the big move and how to trade it, when "fast money" returns. move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so, my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized,

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welcome back to "fast money." natural gas prices plunging again today, down about 5%. bringing the drop in the last month to nearly 50%. the commodity now at levels last seen in mid-2020. pippa stevens is here to break down the move and the ripple effects across the energy complex. pippa? >> melissa, nat gas sinking to a four-year low. the most important factor why, the mild winter temperatures. december was the warmest on record, and apart from a few brief cold snaps, this winter has been moderate. weather-driven demand has been off the charment charts bearish. more gas in storage, with inventory roughly 11% above the five-year average. production also remains around record levels, and finally, one of freeport's three lng trains is currently undergoing repairs, which reduces export demand in

terms of how low can we go? sub-150 is where things really start to hurt. now, on a day when we saw so much red, gasoline futures climbed higher, in part because of the ongoing outage of bp's whiting refinery, the largest in the nid midwest. and that's pushing up phillips 66 and marathon petroleum, which i know guy is watching pretty closely. >> you're in his head, pippa, thank you. pippa stevens -- >> not enough room in there. >> plenty of room. cavernous. >> actually is. back in the day, we used to call, i think it's still called natural gas, the widow maker. you see the reasons why. we're basically right around cost to production now. can it go lower? absolutely. however, as pippa just said, those names, and those names that paul sankey brought a couple years ago continue to work. and there's nothing that should stop them at this point, other than just buying exhaustion, which i haven't seen. >> tim? >> well, i look at the overall

oil trade, i agree. i don't trade nat gas, i haven't. the gassy exposed integrated have been interesting and done well. but i take the macro on the sector. opec was talking about demand for the next couple of years, they were talking about up demand, not down. and their ability to control pricing here, i look at brent, brent's now back above the 100, that's a decent chart, and the energy names, especially, are where i'd be. earnings alert here on zillow. the company reporting a beat on the top and bottom line. shares are up 3%. steve kovach has all the details. steve? >> yeah, it's a good beat. up better than, i don't know, 3.5% or so after that beat, like you said, mel. earnings, big beat there. 20 cents a share. and as for the segments, residential sales up 3% year over year to $349 million. company pointing out it beat the broader residential real estate market, which contracted 4% by 700 basis points. rentals, that's a growing segment for them, up 37%.

and mortgages up 22%. here's a fun stat for the full year. the zillow website, 2.2 billion visits all year. that's a lot of millennials looking at houses they can't afford, guys. >> all right, steve, thank you. steve kovach. karen? >> yes. >> you've been in this. >> karen's sill lowe. >> you are in it now. >> it was like two acronyms back, but -- i mean -- >> back when you played the game the right way. i'm sorry, i had to do that. >> all right. all right. so, the x in helm doesn't work for you, that's fine. there was a lot to like here. they're really building just an incredibly powerful and asset-light business, and imagine -- imagine if there were existing home sales on the market and more transactions happening, what this could do. they had nice guidance, but i think of them as a bit of underpromise, overdeliver.

so, the mid-point of the guidance was a little beat, but a lot to like here, except rates. >> right. and we saw the entire housing sector today creamed on the back of higher rates. >> that's -- that's the rub there, because if rates continue to go higher, it's going to further put a damper on things, i think. and you can say zillow is maybe a little expensive on valuation, but it doesn't mean they're not the axe in the space. despite the run that it's had, if you think rates are topped out here, i think you can get around this name. coming up, the earnings action rolls on. airbnb, robinhood, mgm. details of the quarters next. and higher prices hitting the most cash-strapped consumers. how they're handling the rising costs on everything. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." airbnb lower despite reporting better than expected revenue. let's get back to dee bra bosa for the latest. >> airbnb has been choppy in the afterhours. down 4%. and it was a little messy

because a one-time charge led to a net loss, but when you dig through it, the fundamentals, they were still strong in the quarter. you had a beat on gross bookings. slightly higher average daily rate. and its outlook for q-1, it was strong, not just against street expectations, but relative to the travel industry at large. perhaps tempering those results, so, the company says that it expects q-1 growth rate to moderate because of a relatively hard comp in the first quarter of 2023. now, the call just wrapped up, but i'm going to pick out one interesting question, an analyst asked how they were going to incorporate generative a.i., and they said they are developing a leading a.i. interface to provide an experience that's more personalized than anything than you've ever seen. it hints at airbnb wanting to go beyond its core. he said that it would allow them to go from a single vertical company to a cross vertical company, because one of the things we've noticed, he says, is that the largest tech companies are not a single vertical. he didn't give us anymore clues,

he's been talking about going beyond the core for some time and says we're going to hear more later this year, but maybe hinting at it here. back to you. >> all right, d-bo, thank you. stock down almost 4% at this point. not very -- it's different from what we heard from expedia in terms of its guidance. but airbnb had a $6 billion buy-back, which was interesting, too. >> i don't know what the other vertical -- >> i'm still thinking about that, too. >> i know, there's something ironic about, we're going to have a.i. give you a personal experience. that is a little bit ironic. >> what else will they want to know? the ages of the people who are going there, what you want there, i mean -- >> oh, sorry, you're upset with this. we'll help you fix it. i'm very interested in what that other vertical is. what are they trying to do there? but i think they're talking about strong international travel, which might be good for some of the airlines. >> if we're playing would you

rather, i'd like at expedia and the way it got hit last week. >> you want to play? >> yeah, so -- >> all right. >> if they're doing a one-quarter deceleration, it's more likely another quarter after that. the stock's had a nice -- >> they say it's tough comparisons, man. >> had a big charge in the thing. i would say, expedia's already corrected. 20% expected earnings growth over the next two years, 10% expected revenue growth, 88% gross margin, trading 11 times this year, nine times next. i'd go for expedia. they have the vrbo. i used that in q-4. >> you did. airbnb is in an uptrend since december '22. this uptrend has not been broken yet. we just traded up to the july 23 high, about 150ish. i think you're looking for a place to buy it and you get a shot at 138, that should be support. >> love that margin profile. it's been a beast. it's up 55% over the last six months. you're waiting for a pull-back. the travel dynamics, i think, again, for them, it's a little

different than some of the core players. certainly different than the hotels and the airlines. it's a tech company. and it's getting that multiple. i think it's cheap relative to their peers. consumers under pressure, and even with potential relief around the corner, our next guest says it won't be enough. we'll explain enough. and more earnings action coming your way. shares of robinhood and mgm resorts reporting. we'll have details when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" ll th us any time on the go. foowhe "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. when people switch their dog's food from kibble to the farmer's dog, they often say that it feels like magic. but there's no magic involved. (dog bark) it's simply fresh meat and vegetables, with all the nutrients dogs need— instead of dried pellets. just food made for the health of dogs. delivered in packs portioned for your dog.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks selling off after this morning's hot inflation report. the dow tumbling 500 points. the s&p down more than 1%. the nasdaq down 1.8%. the russell 2,000 down nearly 4%. some earnings movers from this morning. coca-cola lower after reporting sales beating estimates boosted by higher prices. shares of marriott dropping 6% on weak outlook despite the earnings beat. molson coors lower, as well.

and shares of shopify down, giving a mixed forecast for the current quarter. mgm on the move after hours. sharing dropping despite a beat on the top and bottom line. shares of boefinboeing down mor 2% after orders and deliveries fell in january as the company dealt with the fallout from the midair door blowout. and shares of vizio surging on reports walmart is in talks to buy the tvmaker for more than $2 billion. shares of roku dropping 9% on that news. fintech ceo sounding the alarm on the hotter than expected inflation print. he is not surprised. he says customers, more than half of whom hold down multiple jobs to make ends meet, are feeling that pinch. stuart, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> great to get your insight. i read the note and it said you don't think the fed is going to allow a lot of bankruptcies

amongst this cohort, so, do you think there's a back stop in place, they will step in and cut before it gets too late? >> yeah, that's a good question. i think the inflation wasn't any surprise to us, because car insurance, renting, food price inflation, all these things that are essential, goods and services, the everyday american, were basically going up and never really went down that much. so, the blend is much higher. and we saw the spend increase. on top of that, we have buster, like, amazing job growth, which we saw in the january report. when you look at that, combined with the food price inflation and the car insurance at 20%, it's very obvious to us that inflation was going to be a lot higher this time. >> we are just digesting fast food earnings, and inflation was a key theme throughout that. so, you know, i kind of remember you saying once to us, not only are your customers consumers at, like, a mcdonald's, but they also work there. >> that's right. >> so, what are the leading indicators? we're always trying to figure

out how this moves its way to another demo. what are some of the things, it starts with food, is it gas? what should we have our eyes open for? >> so, obviously we're focused on everyday american subprime, sub 620 fico score, if that makes sense. not only do they consume starbucks, mcdonald's, and work at -- consume at walmart, they also work there. and so, you should be looking at those. those earning reports last week and starting to see telltale signs of some of those things happening. but i think more broadly, you're seeing a deterioration in potentially credit quality. i would draw your attention to credit cards. look at the subprime. 16% delinquency rate. four times the super prime. you look at credit card debt overall is 54% year on year higher. so, at the moment, we're seeing the consumer, their journey from christmas all the way to january into february filling that gap

with credit that they don't necessarily afford. >> credit card debt, the average rate, i think, is 21.47% now, $1.3 trillion consumer debt in aggregate, north of $17.5 trillion. how does that play into your demographic, with all the moves that we're seeing? >> so, going back to melissa's point, i think the fed has, like, three things they can play here. the first is, pop the a.i. bubble, which we all think -- i think we can all agree it's probably a bubble. two is commercial real estate that's stacked in regional bannings. and third is the u.s. consumer. and do they want to play that game? so, what i mean by that is, a deterioration into q-2. we're seeing the tax refunds, they are waiting for the tax refunds. the irs has been delayed a week. so, you are seeing the everyday consumer right now wait for that money and they'll start spending down and paying down their auto loans, which is something you should be looking at on their credit card debt. the thing i want to draw attention to, there's a

misproduct market fit for the consumer and what's being offered. i think when you look, march into april, april is going to be the time when the u.s. consumer, if they don't pop one of those two bubbles, the u.s. consumer may be in trouble in q-2. >> i almost called you travis, which -- so, looking at, you don't charge monthly fees -- >> no, that's correct. >> so, is this a not for profit endeavor, so, if it isn't -- >> where's the beef. >> good question. so, we are not credit. there's no resource in anything that we land. we are a financial technology platform offering banking service. but we also offer an extendedly kwidty between paychecks up to $500. you don't necessarily get all the money back. the way we make our money is through interchange. if they are using our card, that's great for us. we'll take some of that cut. that comes from the merchant. and it's on our credit rails, because you can credit build, as well. if you want that money immediately, there is instant fee of about $4.99.

that's how we make our money. not like a credit card where you'd be like, okay, i don't want to pay it back this month, won't cost me anything, there's no resource for us. so, that's how we make our money and i think it's a fairer deal for the consumer. >> the notion that you can pop the a.i. bubble and that sort of one of the options that the fed -- that's really taking the markets down. asset prices to come down. the way to do that would be to hike, i would think hike rates. >> yep. >> hiking rates would make the cre problem play out. it would also break the back of the consumer, potentially. so, you see that as sort of what needs to be done? >> is it? possible. i think they're kind of hoping. they injectedly kwidty, if i put my old trader hat back on, they injectedly kwidty into the year-end of last year, we're starting to see that tail end sort of run off. equity markets make all new highs. the fed is probably looking at this and going, we went from a hard landing to a soft landing to maybe a no landing. and that's what the market is

picking up on the data today. i don't think they're ready to hike rates. i do think we'll see more cuts, sometime in h-2, but we're going to see one of these three, or maybe it's a combination, play out in q-2, where they'll say, okay, something's happened. if i put my money on it, i think all three deteriorate, and the thing i know least about is the a.i. bubble and i think that's the risk. >> thank you. good to see you. stuart sopp. >> third kelce brother. good-looking man, stu. it's great to have him on every quarter, because he gives an insight that we don't really hear from. and his customer base is what we talk about in terms of who is getting hurt, so, when the politicians come on and say, see, we're fighting inflation, we're winning, they're not winning. inflation is going up slower than it was before. and people are feeling that right now. >> and the consumer, it's -- whatever the fed's going to do, we know is going to be data-dependent, but they're trying to knock down the labor market and it's going to hit this segment the first, and it gets back into -- you know, my

old joke about buy now, pay later. you buy now, you're going to pay later, but discover. we saw, you know, the ncos, net chargeoffs, some of the dynamics around that consumer are starting to deteriorate. not massively. but where do you want exposure going into a period where we are still at peak labor? >> the labor thing is interesting, because we're seeing lots of layoffs and they look like white collar jobs. when you listen to stu, there's still a lot of demand, right, on, you know, a lot of the service jobs, and that's kind of a conundrum for the fed, too, right now. coming up, robinhood shares jumping after they had a boost in their earnings report. analysis next. plus, it wasn't all down arrows out there. a few big names hitting brand new highs. we'll debate where they're heading next. and during february, we're celebrating black heritage. here's the co-ceo and president of ariel investments. >> when i think about how being black has impacted my success, i

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welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on robinhood. the stock jumping after posting unexpected profit. kate rooney has been listening into the call. kate? >> hey, melissa. robinhood's surprise profit was in part thanks to trading activity in crypto and a surge in deposits. the call has been focused on taking market share from incumbents like fidelity. robinhood surprised with 3 cents on eps. revenue was up 24%. subscription growth and average revenue per user also strong. $81 per customer and grew. executives on the call say they already passed $4 billion in net deposits. halfway through the quarter, in january. that's the highest monthly total they've seen since the first half of 2021, which, of course, was the game stop and mean stock

era, which was a big moment for robinhood. a third of that came from other brokers. in q-4, $3 billion came from across the top brokers. fidelity has been talked about, called out by name. average transfer balances, this is key, were over $100,000. they are starting to attract the higher income trader as they start to build out offerings like retirement accounts. we have vlad tenev on cnbc tomorrow at 1:00. melissa? >> hood was your final trade, guy, a few nights ago. >> we all talked about. first profitable quarter, i may be mistaken, but they will be profitable next year. they have a decent balance sheet -- this is one of the stocks that can sort of surprise some people. so, i think you stay with it here. >> to call out fidelity in terms of being the source of transfers into robinhood is very interesting, i think. >> yeah, it's sort of brazen, a little bit. but that's sort of their style,

right? it's very in your face. but good for them. decent quarter. >> you said it's got an okay balance sheet. they have nearly $7 billion in cash as of today's close. they had a $10.3 billion market cap and $3 billion in debt. we spent some time last night talking about carl eicahn buyin into jetblue. that was neutered at some point, not so long ago. but when you think about activists looking for targets, that could be one. coming up, not all stocks were down today. names like ge, waste management, and others hitting new highs. we'll go over the list, where they could be headed next. "fast money" is back in two. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's age renew formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond.

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welcome back to "fast money." there were some bright spots in the markets, despite the broader selloff. waste management wrapping the day at a record dating back to its 1988 ipo. travelers at its best since 1972. toyota and cigna hitting all-time highs. and ge rising to its highest level since 2017. couple of these names, tim, i

thought of you, ge and toyota, specifically toyota. >> yeah, ge is one of these names that i think i probably held it during the period where it wasn't hitting 52-week highs. i have a small position, and i got some of the spinouts that have done well. but toyota, if you look at japanese stocks, they're making new fresh 34-year highs. some of this is -- are the fundamentals there. we talked about, toyota is kind of in a sweet spot, also possibly of where you want to be in terms of hybrids and their core business. but they are an exporter. if you notice the weakness in dollar/yen, guy brought this up earlier. it's fantastic for export stocks in japan. i like japanese stocks. >> waste management reported earnings better than expected, so, the space is up. and a defensive nature to -- >> very defensive nature. they had that crazy golf tournament where people get ma' hammered and throw things. the phoenix open thing is out of control. >> you ever been? >> i have not. i don't want to go. the golfers don't want to go, either. but it is still relatively fair

on valuation. it's one of these, we never talk about, we probably should. >> and insurance companies did well in today's session, which maybe no surprise given the rise in insurance costs that we've seen in cpi. >> well, there's that, but the float. travelers, they put up a gigantic quarter. good for them. >> elevance hit a new high. >> was that a new high? okay, well, thank you. >> go karen! >> yay, all right. >> different think of me at all. >> well -- >> you went around the horn, you thought of everybody in a stock. that's fine. >> well -- those names aren't -- i don't associate them with you -- >> note the sarcasm. didn't think about me. >> i know. i think that was real. up next, final trades. i did not think of you.

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one more quick check on shares of lyft. it's up 18.7 %. it had been up 70% before the company put out a correction. they said 500 basis points of adjusted ebitda margin expansion, but it should be 50 basis points, big difference. still, shares holding onto a 19% gain afterhours. time for the final trade. tim seymour? >> and it is my final trade once the l in lags. you are guying the dip on this, ha-ha. this is a case where the fundamentals of this company are getting better. >> it's not blicep. >> yes. >> tlt today. nice move in rates higher, bought some back. >> dan? >> yeah, these guys are right on rates and they are going higher, i think banks are going lower.

bkx. >> guy? >> mel called tim and i last night before the ranger game, she's like, igor is going to pitch a shutout. >> she knows hockey. >> i try. >> cme group before the bell tomorrow. this is a good environment for them, melms. >> thank you for watching "fast." adonwi j cmer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. other people are here to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but to explain. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me