Skip to main content

tv   Street Signs  CNBC  February 14, 2024 4:00am-5:00am EST

4:00 am
and that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche, and these are your headlines. wall street looks set to open in the green after a hotter than expected inflation trend sees equity markets sell off on tuesday with hopes that the fed's easing soon fades. uk inflations surprises to the downside in january, sending homebuilders higher as traders up their rate cut bets. heineken slumps in early
4:01 am
trade as underwhelming guidance turns off investors. the ceo discusses the impact of price pressures. >> we wanted to keep priceying in line with our input costs. we see that calming down. and thesen krupp singers down and it only expects to break even this year. good morning again, everybody. let's get started with what happened yesterday. the latest inflation report has shaken up expectations. january's figures came in hotter than expected, up 3.1% but down from december's reading.
4:02 am
inflation grew 0.4% for its biggest gain since may. it's going in the wrong direction. if you look at the components, this is what it's going to jump out to immediately, the shelter part of cpi up 6%. the single largest gainer last month. food costs. again, a lot of the analysts' commentary have centered around the fact the shelter number has come in surprisingly high. now, of course, the report dashed hopes of a rate cut in may with futures markets trimming expectations from 50 to 34% while the chances of a march cut were effectively completely wiped out. nobody is really expecting rates to get cut in march anymore. even may has been reduced more. let's take a look at how the markets responded to this data.
4:03 am
you can see the dow ended 1.4% lower. the s&p is on a similar amount. the nasdaq down 1.8%. also a very bad day for small stocks with the russell plunging yesterday, almost 4%. its worst day since july 2022. has had a real notable impact on wall street and on global sent meant. as for u.s. sentiment, this is the theme today. just to give you an idea. after the print, 10-year treasury yields ended at 16%. 2-year climbed 18 basis points yesterday. 1.8%. huge move as well. today you can see there's somewhat of a resolve, barely, though. the 10-year note around 10 basis
4:04 am
points, 2-year, 2. you can see the euro actually hasn't done a lot. we're trading flat around 107 despite that lower than expected inflation print coming through. we're sitting at around 125.50. dollar/yen pretty much in focus. a lot of money went into the usc after the stronger than expected cpi prints yesterday. today things are moderating, but the theme for the last 24 hours has been equities, weaker treasuries higher, stronger, longer. jeffrey gundlach said markets overestimated the rate cuts this year. >> the market has had tremendously overpriced the amount of cuts this year. it was down to almost a certainty of 6, and it seems that the fed, since they weren't going to move in march, per the words of the chairman, that means you're getting started in may, and then there's this thing
4:05 am
called the election. i don't know. they probably aren't primarily focused on that, but to have six rate cuts between may and the end of the year always seemed like a lot to me absent some very substantial improvement in inflationary data. >> all of that happened at the u.s. session yesterday. that was after the hotter than expected cpi. today in the uk, we also had cpi figures. treasuries are upping their bets after the surprise to the downside in january, coming in at 4% higher on the year. now, that figure comes a day before the gdp data, which could show the uk dipping into a technical recession. just one more word on those cpi figures. 4%. so unchanged versus december, but still lower than the forecast going into today of 4.2%. the core cpi figure also came in slightly lower, minus 0.2% year
4:06 am
on year. as a consequence, markets are pushing up with rate cuts pointing to 71 basis points of cuts up from 58 this morning before this morning's cpi data. we're kind of where we were before that employment data came out in the uk yesterday. it's been a real whirlwind if you were invested in fixed income the last couple of days. let's take a look at how european markets are faring on the back of this data. you can see across the board all of these indices are actually trading in the green, so breaking with the negative price action, the ftse 100 not a surprise here, a big outformer up 0.4% today as some of those rate cuts expectations get built back in to the rate curve again. as to the pound, this is what the pound is doing. sterling as i mentioned is trading sideways. well, a little bit weaker now.
4:07 am
0.3 versus the u.s. dollar. you can see quite clearly it dipped once the cpi numbers came out. so there's a lot going on versus macro. i'm happy to have the global head of rbc joining me. good morning. let's start with the uk figures and what we're seeing. why is the gilt so strong? >> people asked me yesterday, why the large outsized reaction. i think it's because markets are struggling with the narrative right now. we started the year were a very strong narrative that inflation was well entrenched. now it's a complete reversal of that. it's that chop and change of position. >> are people in the trade? is the community long, the pound
4:08 am
going into this year, given relative expectations of recuts of the bank of england versus the fed? >> actually not really. so positioning in our metric is relatively light. i don't think it's as short as it has been in the past. people were trying for a long time to get short of the pound. it didn't really work. all of the excitement is in fixed income. >> that is certainly true. yesterday we saw huge moves in the u.s. let's talk about the u.s. dollar. i know the rbc unit is stronger than the rest of the street. where do you see holes in your thesis? what changed your mind, and in what situation would you not want yours to be longer. >> i updated my portfolio a few days ago with the view that the dollar is going to strengthen
4:09 am
this year but modestly. i flattened out the peak. the reason being is while the south side is bearish on the dollar if you look at public forecasts, i don't think the buy side is particularly as bearish, particularly in europe. they say it's a carry trade. i'm sitting in dollars and earning the carry and it's the exceptionalism story. it's the one drag on dollar perfor performance. of course, you have a turn in data, which we've not seen so far. >> if the u.s. data to suddenly turn and the fed signaling they're going to start aggressively cutting -- it's not going to happen soon, but it's data dependent -- do you think there it will? >> i think selectively. i think where people expect it to be a turning point is against the dollar/yen. the key is how far the fed would
4:10 am
cut. given where hedging costs is today for japanese investor, even if they cut rates and the back of japan is hiking rates, it would take a material amount of cuts to turn thataround. what is a surprise is the euro. >> let me ask you about the yen. are we getting close to intervention zone? >> we saw mild verbal intervention overnight from both the finance minister and the deputy finance minister, but it was mild. effectively you had part of it was a move. part of it was speculative. it's not so much they're going to be able to reverse the move, but they want to slow it. >> have the peoople given up?
4:11 am
i know it's a similar situation in europe. i kind of get the feeling so long as the bank of japan stays where they are, everything will stay the same. it's given the index a boost too. >> absolutely. i think people are coming around to the idea that dollar/yen doesn't necessarily follow the bank of japan, and if you want to trade with the bank of japan, you'd rather do it in japanese rates than the dollar/yen. positioning is long. i wouldn't be surprised to see a buildup of short dollar/yen that's ahead of the bank of japan meetings, but i think it would be a great opportunity to get into the long position. >> yesterday i was looking at vix. despite everything that's happened with central banks withdrawing the liquidity and hiking rates and talking about cuts, we haven't seen a big up uptick. what has been happening with fx volatility and if it is low, does it present an opportunity to hedge? >> it's interesting.
4:12 am
they always want to be sure. even they're at a point where it's difficult to find value and then maybe selective opportunities to go long bull. one thing i've been looking at is cad. if you look at political risks later on in the year, long data is no bad hedge. >> speaking of the political risk, do you get the sense if your clients are beginning to position for what happens in november with the u.s. elections? >> not position, but definitely start talking about it. we had our strategist last week and it came up in a lot of meetings. they're thinking about it, but i don't get that there's a strong consensus. >> it's not clear for the u.s. dollar. biden is continuity, but trump likes the long dollar, but he likes to win on trades.
4:13 am
finally just to round things up, what would you say are one or two of the top trades you're recommending right now? >> i think long cad bull is a dollar hedge. looking for a dip around the march/april meeting in order to get into the long position again and we're looking at turnaround in the swiss franc. it's gone from being very popular to thinking it's good funding. >> it makes sense also with the weaker than expected cpi that came in. elsa, always great to speak with you. global head of rbc. the bank needs more information before it decides whether it's necessary to cut rates. it's said while the economy is headed in the right direction, policy makers should not get ahead of themselves. coming up on "street signs," heineken loses its fizz as it loses profit guidance that
4:14 am
disappoints investors. we'll take a closer look coming up yet.
4:15 am
4:16 am
is it possible to count on my internet like my customers count on me? it is with comcast business. keeping you up and running with 99.9% network reliability. and security that helps outsmart threats to your data. moaire dida twoo? your data, too. there's even round-the- clock customer support. so you can be there for your customers. hey billy, how you doin? with comcast business, reliability isn't just possible. thanks. it's happening. get started for $49.99 a month. plus, ask how to get up to a $1000 prepaid card with a qualifying internet package. don't wait, call and switch today!
4:17 am
welcome back to the show. while we are thick in the earning season, a lot coming out in the report from the netherlands. you can see the stock is up for abn amro after fourth quarter beats. the dutch lender reported a net profit of 545 euros. that is up more than 50%, 5-0 per sejts on the year. quite a bit jump for abn. thiessen croup dropped their forecasts. they expect to break even on a net profit basis instead of a previous forecast of low to mid-digit europrofit. it expects revenues to remain around the 2022 shares. switching on to beer, heineken full net profit dipped
4:18 am
more than expected to 2.3 billion euros as consolidated beer volumes dipped 4.4% or organically. higher prices affected the momentum. input costs had jumped, but he sees them cooling. >> last year the trade business performed better than the off trades business. i think it's a reflection of a lot of the pricey that was needed due to a huge increase in our input costs. input costs went double digits last year. it's materially different than what we saw in the recent past. as i said before, much less pricey needed. we see inflation around the world starting to moderate and we think that will set us up for a very different volume momentum in this new year. well, another stock that's
4:19 am
in focus is delivery hero. so bucking the trend of the past year, the stock has come under a lot of pressure. the company confirmed its guidance for the year after performing an adjusted ebita compared to a loss of 623.6 million in 2022. so profitable. the food delivery company says cash flow generation will be enough to settle bonds and debt maturities. stock up 5.8% today. and another dutch company that is in focus, ahold delhaizen posts a fourth quarter profit. european sales rose by 7.5%. earlier this morning they spoke about the impact of food and inflation on the business and the wider economy.
4:20 am
>> at the same time, food inflation is tapering down. we see hyperinflation in 2023. and we see food inflation coming down. we all have a challenge. that's why we also upped our cost-saving program to more than 1.25 billion euros to deal with this, and that's why we have confidence within a 4% margin also for 2024. but, again, you talk about human suffering, i think that makes us all very humble. you see a lot of families and communities are challenged by higher inflation, food prices, interest rates, and these kinds of things. it's our job to make sure food is affordable, healthy, and sustainably produced. >> that was a recap of the european markets and some of the topearners.
4:21 am
all of the chinese indices are closed for the lunar new year, but the hang seng has resumed trading this morning and is up 0.8%. we spoke with our strategist and we're seeing the nikkei dip down 0.7%, but, of course, coming off 34-year highs. sony has cut its sales forecast for its flagship playstation 5 console after warning of weaker transactions in its key gaming division. it comes after they recorded their quarterly revenue in the all-important december quarter. arjun kharpal joins us well. why don't we do a compare and contrast. >> just a comparison in terms of nintendo expecting to sell about 15.5 units of the switch in this
4:22 am
fiscal year, which ends in march, you're looking at 21 million. that's down from the 25 million forecast they had before. switch is a lot older console. it's a seven-year-old console. the ps5 is just over three years old. what you're seeing here is when playstation came out at the end of 2020, there was a huge demand, but they couldn't keep up with the supply due to supply chain issues around the pandemic. that's sort of normalized. you're seeing a reflection of that. this is still a strong quarter. it's a revenue quarter. it sold 8.2 million play stations in that quarter alone. but clearly sony's own goals were pretty lofty. you're seeing a slight reality collect here for the rest of the fiscal year. the key for sony now is they're at this odd stage of the console side. if we're talking near seven years for nintendo, sony's almost at that middle stage at this point with the ps5. so the key is how do they try to maintain momentum for it?
4:23 am
the issue they have this year is that there's not many huge blockbuster releases in terms of games coming to market. they had a big one last year with spider-man 2 and a few others. there's nothing really in the pipeline you see here. you have the playstation vr 2 set, which is an add-on. they've released a handheld ps portal device as well to try to keep interest in the console more broadly. so that's the strategy at the moment. i think investors are looking at whether this year there's a big upgrade to the playstation 5, whether there's a playstation 5 proas there's been many leaks about. that's really where the story is for sony right now. >> i guess we have to see whhow the stock is going to react. the earnings in december was really strong and we saw a huge
4:24 am
uptick and the story has been impacted. the stock is up more than 150%. so it's been quite solid despite some of the headwinds on the pandemic and the supply side. how do you think the market is going to interpret their slightly more realistic expectations of what they can achieve this year? >> it depends how much the market believes sony's 25 forecast, 25 billion forecast. it's a big forecast unlikely to be met anyway. so perhaps the reaction might not be as violent or reaction as the cut might suggest. so that's what i was sort of expecting, down a little bit. i think overall what you asked or are continuing to see is a market leader here. yes, there's a cut to the forecast, but they still have, i think, more than 120 million annual users for the playstation. it's a similar story to nintendo
4:25 am
where they continue to upsell in the games and add-ons. don't forget the older generation console as well. i think really, though, for sony, whilst the gaming business is huge, it's important to remember there's a music business, an image sense of business. they sell iphone cameras and other smartphones as well. there are other parts that have done very well as well in the december quarter, so i think the market investors are going to be looking perhaps at some of the other businesses to pick up some of the slack too. >> just a quick question. what is the visibility on companies like these also venturing into cloud gaming baze as well? >> sony's had very, very nascent attempts. there's nothing fully fledged yet in taeerms of the offering, but i think it's clearly a direction for all gaming companies. it's an ability to monetize your
4:26 am
software. one of the things they've done so successfully is rely a lot on first half party titles. it's not relying as mump on the third-party developers like ea, for example. sony has a very strong gaming portfolio in house and that's what's allowed it to monetize these big blockbuster styles. sony's in a strong position with its offering at least from a content perspective at this point. >> it makes a lot of sense. thanks for that your view. you spoke about that last week. arjun with the latest from sony. for more on the earnings, check out arjun's article on cnbc.com. nvidia is worth more than amazon for the first time since 2002 after it surpassed the tech giants on tutz. it comes amid an ai-fueled chip demand surge. it closed over $721 per share, giving it a market cap of $1.78
4:27 am
trillion in comparison to amazon's $1.75 trillion valuation. the chipmaker is now on the brink of taking over alphabet as wall street's third biggest company. also coming up on our show today, departing from london. shareholders vote to derisk. we'll discuss more coming up next.
4:28 am
4:29 am
ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.
4:30 am
signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. equity markets sell off on tuesday as hopes of the fed easing soon fade. london outperforms in early trade as uk inflation trades to the downside sending homebuilders higher as traders up their rate cut bets. heineken slumps in early trade as items and volume declines turn off investors.
4:31 am
the ceo dolf van den brink talks about it. >> due to a huge increase in our input kofls, they went to double digits last year. gladly we see that coming down. and thyssenkrupp sinks to the bottom after cutting its sales and net profit outlook. it expects to only break even this year. well, we had some mega moves in the u.s. session yesterday. a very down day for u.s. equities. we had the s&p end the session down 1.4%. the russell 2000, the small cap index down 4% yesterday, worst day since june 2022. 10-year treasuries ended the day 14 basis points higher and about 25 basis points worth of cuts,
4:32 am
expectations, rate cut expectations were priced out of the market. so big, big, big market day. today in europe what we're seeing is actually in contrast to the price action we had in the u.s. all of these european markets are trading in the green, i inching back. a lot of focus on the ftse in the uk, up 0.6%, this after a lower than expected inflation print. so the headline is still sitting at 4% but lower than anticipated on the back of the rate expectations that started to build up again. before the print, we were pricey in 60 basis cuts. that's affecting some of the rate sectors. we've got homebuilders performing very well this morning right at the top of the ftse 100. over in currency, this is the picture. the dollar continuing with some of the strength that transpired
4:33 am
in yesterday's session. dollar/yen turning around, but still we're through 150. that's a key level. so the yen is trading around 0.2% firmer. the pound dipping right after the figure came out. we had a stronger than expected cpi print, weaker on the back of that. we have the pound flipping about 0.3%. this is what's going on this morning. yesterday we did see the market move higher and yield terms on back of the huge selloff that we had in the u.s. yesterday by the end of the session, 10-year bunds were about three basis points higher. six basis points above the level before the cpi print. the 10-year bond is sitting at 206. we're seeing a mega rally in gilts. we're about 13 basis points lower, so complete opposite direction from the price action
4:34 am
we had in u.s. treasuries. today we're seeing the yields in the u.s. move back again, two years, now five basis points higher. pairing back some of those losses. the 10-year notes down 2 basis points as well. as for u.s. futures, this is what the u.s. market is looking like. actually it is seen opening up in the green. all of the three majors, we saw quite a negative session for all three of them are seen opening up in the green. so s&p up 17, the dow, 61, and the nasdaq, 97. well, tui shareholders voted in favor of the company's delisting from the london's stock exchange, pursuing a primary listing in germany. the vote at europe's largest travel company was 98.3% of shareholders. very happy to say the cfo of tui
4:35 am
joins us on the show. good morning. let's start with the decision to delist from the london stock exchange. what was the motivation? >> good morning, joumanna. thanks very much for having me. the fact is a lot of the liquidity to volumes already for quite some time went from the trading line in the u can to frankfurt. we were approached by shareholders with our new listing we still have. we went into a structured process. does it still make sense to have a listing or go for a single listing in frank further where the listing is today. >> how much do you think it's motivated by the discounted share price for tui and the fact that the ftse 100 in general trades at a discount to other
4:36 am
stockmarket indices? >> i think it's a good question indeed. there were a lot of comments about, you know, if you were to go to frankfurt, one, liquidity would be one pool only. that's something i heard from a lot of shareholders. the other point is they said then you're more prominent in tin dex than where you are today in the ftse 250, and there are also some comments this could be a more challenging market environment today. at the same time, this is for us very difficult to measure, and what i can't understand is moving in a very prominent position that's, of course, something which may attract some shareholders or many shareholders. >> of course that is the hope. let's talk about the results yesterday. you had quite a strong set of result, confirming a strong trend. revenue with profits in positive territory. what is driving this turnaround within the company?
4:37 am
>> absolutely. i think first the demand for holidays that's unchanged. so wherever you look, any consumer research suggests holidays, leisure spend is pryor titled. on the background, we're on a recovery path and a lot of the ingredients really now materialize. recovering cruises, recovering market in airlines. last year we couldn't hatch the way we wanted, so we went into this quarter kind of with the right ingredients, and for the first time after covid could really execute the potential of the firm. i think that's it in a nutshell the background of this strong quarter is. >> i've read a lot of analysts' commentary and a lot of them were surprised with your profit numbers. let me ask you what you have on cost progression in 2024 because there are a lot of cost pressures coming through, and i know within germany, there's a lot of macro talk about wage
4:38 am
negotiations that are taking place. how do you think that's going to impact the bottom line within tui? >> yeah. i think costs indeed, we need to be disciplined every day. i think the cost pressure is less than it was last year. at the same time, you can also see there is a limit to what you can -- what the consumer's prepared to spend. so you need to work to get consumers over the line, and that accounts for all markets. i would say we have prices year on year up for the winter and the summer. that's okay to pass inflation, but at the same time, it requires a lot of discipline on our cost input lines. >> let's talk here and knew. you mentioned broadly there's still a demand for travel. how do you see the summer shaping out, and what does that translate to you in terms of your own pricey power? can you pass on higher prices to willing consumers? >> yeah. i think we are 8% from last
4:39 am
year. that's good. that's a good start into the summer. we said we want to be almost toward the level of 19. we were around 10% lower last year. so the 8% that should fill the gap. but at the same time, you can read it. we all know it. it's not the easiest market for consumers. so i think we're very happy with the plus 8. at the same time, it's not an easy market and we need to work every day to make sure we get there, also on pricey. with the plus 4, it's fine for inflation today, but, again, we need to be very disciplined on cost. >> yeah. let's go back to where we started, which is the fact that the stock is still very deeply discounted and trades very cheap even versus some of your peers in the sector. i know you obviously would want to see a trade at a higher valuation. what do you think shareholders are missing about the forward-looking story? >> that's difficult to say.
4:40 am
we've been through quite a journey. that's fair. at the same time, if you think about the clalted value at the day in april last year, if you think about what analysts put in as price targets, it's currently trading. we ended flat. it's a challenging position. >> sir, we're going to leave it there. thanks so much for joining me on the show and for the opportunity to chat with you the day after you released those very strong numbers. now, airbnb is lower in extended trade despite posting better than expected trade in the fourth quarter at 17% at $2.2 billion. but a net loss of $349 million
4:41 am
is $30 million deeper in the red than a year ago. airbnb says that loss includes lodging, tax reserves and currency around $1 billion. the stock is down 5.9% in trading. >> and this is an interesting story that stood out to me overnight. lyft slammed the brakes by admitting to overstating its margin expansion forecast in an earnings release typo. the cfo aaron brewer said the company expects 50 basis points inl stead of originally 500. ten times as much, a figure that sent shares more than 60% higher. the stock pulled back around $2 billion from earlier highs, so an expensive typo mistake. our u.s. colleagues will be speaking to david risher. do not miss that cnbc interview. and don't miss nelson
4:42 am
peltz's interview at 5:00 p.m. cti. and coca-cola largely met sales expectations as higher prices helped the beverage maker helped with a volume decline. unit case volumes rose in rival to pepsico which saw price hikes lead to a 4% drop in volumes. ceo james quincy laid out his plans for the company. we're going to have some areas of tailwinds where things are going to go well. economies like india are going to continue to do well, australia, a number of other markets are going to do well. the u.s. will slightly pick up through the year, but overall we think about in terms of there's going to be tailwinds and head winds and things we know are going to happen and things that will be surprises. our focus is what we can control in investing in our business so we can have an all-weather strategy that plays through all
4:43 am
the headwinds and tailwinds. know how up and down and crazy it's been. if we have the right set of capa capabilities, we can manage what come s in front of us. oil prices are under pressure amid the continuing crisis in the red sea. we'll discuss the outlook for the market coming up next.
4:44 am
switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. take full control of your brand with your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. and sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. a lot more. take your business to the next stage when you switch
4:45 am
to shopify.
4:46 am
4:47 am
welcome back to the show. the u.s. senate passed a $95 billion national security funding bill, which includes extra support for ukraine. the final vote comes after weeks of pressure from the biden administration, however, the package forces -- well faces, rather, uncertain prospects in the house of representatives, in particular from hard-line republicans. house speaker mike johnson who is a close supporter of former president donald trump says inflation should recognize the
4:48 am
country's own security, adding the u.s. deserves better than senate status quo. meanwhile president biden criticized trump's comments related to nato. he said trump's remarks were dangerous and un-american. >> trump gave an invitation to putin to invade some of our nato allies. he said if an ally didn't spend enough money on defense, he would encourage russia to do whatever the hell they want, end of quote. can you imagine? a former president of the united states saying that? the whole world heard it. the worst thing is he means it. no other president in our history has ever bowed down to a russian dictator. let me say this as clearly as i can. i never will. for god's sake, it's dumb, it's sha shameful, it's dangerous, it's un-american. when america gives its word, it means something.
4:49 am
when we make a commitment, we keep it. nato is a sacred commitment. >> nato is expected to announce most of the member states are on track to hit the defense spending target of 2% this year. that's according to the "financial times." the alliance is expected to say as many as 18 of its 32 member states will achieve the goal with many to go further. now, oil prices are stabilizing after declines in asian trade weighed down by sticky u.s. inflation and ongoing tensions in the red sea to discuss the outlook here. i'm happy to say andy is in studio this time. it's wonderful to have you with me. it wasa good week for oil last week. the complex rose more than 6%. to what extent do you think this is being driven by geopolitical concerns with everything happening in the middle east right now? >> i think largely at the moment. if you look at since the beginning of the year, we've
4:50 am
tracked almost 40 attacks on shipping in the red sea. when you look at what's accrued on the water, we see 45 billion barrels rerouting around the cape and it's starting to have an impact. we've come from mid-2022 or march 2022 when we spiked to $230 a barrel. so, yes, there is a rink premium around. there's a lot of concern around escalation. we're starting to see some bowels displaced on the water. >> andy, let me ask you this. we talk about the disruption. i think at a may crow level if there's going to be geopolitical attacks on the region on the vessels, clearly there's going to be more premium riis priced in.
4:51 am
we're talking about a disruption. it's the same supply. it's just taking longer to reach its destination. >> that's correct. i think you're going to see more turbulence in modestmarkets. obviously we've seen a big shift toward bunkering in south africa as more vessels reroute around the cape of good hope. in terms of fundamentals, the market is still neutral to bearish ultimately because we have this huge surface in terms of the capacity. about $5 million a day held in the persian golf, saudi, uk, uae. on the other side, the thing we don't talk about enough really is the huge boon in north american production. it's really interesting. if you look at last year, we kind of crossed the threshold. if you put canada and the u.s. together, you know, they were producing somewhere around 17.5 million barrels crude a day.
4:52 am
that's comparable to the amount of oil that the gulf is producing. that's a huge turnaround. so there's record production coming out of the u.s. more is flowing opt the international market. that's a major change. >> yeah. there's a lot of deal making going on around the permian basin as well. to go back to what you said, though, do you think that because the u.s. has become so permanent now with its own production, it's displaced the relative importance of opec on a global scale? >> i think it's hard to say whether the u.s. is now the swing producer because perm yanlt oil. nonconventional crude flows out of north america. you know, they're not as easily adjustable. opec can come to a decision, you know. it's very flexible. that's why saudi maintains its
4:53 am
supply buffer. but, you know, the key thing is really interesting. >> but it's only one country. >> if you look at net total oil and profits, everything, 20-plus barrels a day, it was a record, by far the world's biggest producer. you know, set in the near future to be exploring nearly 10 million barrels a day. these companies, they're not buying these assets just to sit on them and produce at the same level. they want to squeeze every last level out of the ground. the trajectory is only going to rise. what's interesting is, you know, you look at the market on close process. we're now seeing saudi aramco, they're trading on u.s. bowlels. >> speaking of that, what do you think of producing the capital
4:54 am
expenditure on output production when it comes to oil? >> the energy minister says that's driven by them moving to any transition, you know. i think that that's a good point to make. however, you know, there's also talk about ramaco listing more of the shares on markets. would it make more sense to hold back the capacity expapgss and ultimately get shareholders to pay for it? that's a good question. >> yeah, positioning themselves for the ultimate share sale. i can't let you go until i see what the demand picture evolving. yesterday we spoke with the opec general and he seemed quite confident over oil for the coming years. what are you going to see for 2024 and how much of a swing factor is china going to be? >> it's definitely going. we forecast demand will grow somewhere in the region of 6 million barrels a day. that's healthy.
4:55 am
2.3% growth globally. that's not so great. a lot of the uptick you've seen in the last year or last year that was, you know, lock joups coming off people going back to work, more economic activity, that's now washed out of the system. a lot depends on what central banks do this year. going into 2025, however, we see a market that's a lot more muted, so somewhere in the region of 1.1, 1.2 a day. it's slowing. >> finally your forecast on oil? i've got to ask you. >> the house global is full. $83 a barrel in 2024, falling actually into 2025 to about $79 a barrel. that's brent prices. that's brent prices. we'll see it unfold. >> andy, always great to see you
4:56 am
inside the studio at this time. stay tuned for our exclusive interview with the u.s. energy secretary jennifer granholm. that is coming up at 11:30 cte. a quick look at european markets before we head out. european majors are all trading in the green. of course, there has been a lot of focus on the ftse 100. the index is up 0.7. we had the slightly lower than expected inflation print come through, unchanged versus the last month. it's giving homebuilders a boost of a boost. finally u.s. futures, this is the picture. all of the majors seen opening up in the green after a session of complete reds yesterday. are things going to turn around. ? 'll find out. that's it for your our show. i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.
4:57 am
i'm andrea, founder of a boutique handbag brand - andi - and this is why i switched to shopify. it's the challenges that we don't expect, like a site going down or the checkout wouldn't work. what's nice about shopify is
4:58 am
when i'm with my family, when i'm taking time off, knowing that i have a site up and running and our business is moving forward because we have a platform that we can rely on. that is gold to us. start your free trial at shopify today. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
4:59 am
♪ ♪
5:00 am
it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five @ 5." westart with one and done. stocks are trying to bounce back after their worst day since march following that hotter than expected inflation report. investors are now looking to the fed and jay powell, possibly pushing back the timeline for future interest rate cuts. why jeff gundlach said the market mace have gotten over their skis. but today it's all about what to expect from the markets and your money and the apparent frothiness. the sectors and stocks to watch ahead of the open, and speaking of

95 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on