with the cfo, huge, speaking of eps. just a huge hearnings beat, a surge in trading activity for q alre -4. that translates amid this crypto craze that we've been seeing. ppi tomorrow. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> bitcoin is back. "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site on the day where the s&p 500 closed on a fresh record high, this is "fast money". here's what's on tap tonight. alphabet stock now acting like rival microsoft could really overtake it in this new a.i. arms race. plus, high tech halo. just how many companies is nvidia investing in and funding? and what impact is it having on the chip giant's bottom line? we'll break it down. later, down on the farm. inside deere's tough quarter. charting the big rebound in small caps, and is china now so bad it could be good? surprising take from our traders.

i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, chris verrone, dan nathan, and guy adami. we'll drill down on alphabet's bad day in a minute, but we begin with the rebound in banks, and the real estate sector. jpmorgan closing at an all-time high, wells fargo soaring to an all-time high. the kre up 3% today. and even new york community bank corp showing signs of life, up 6%. real estate also heating up, check out the gains in names like boston properties and alexandria. so, why this big turnaround? what has really changed for these sectors so tied to rates? i mean, nothing, as far as i know, compared to yesterday. >> no, i can't figure this out, either. a tremendous run. maybe it's a valuation thing. maybe people don't look at the risk curve in terms of technology. banks make sense here. all-clear, maybe. if you have that selloff out of the way on tuesday, here we are today. but the xlf is now within a hair of the all-time high, i think it made in jeaanuary of 2022.

41 and change. more importantly, and you mentioned the regionals, i'll say this, iwm, the russell, is right at huge resistance level. i'm sure chris has thoughts on that, but 205 had been resi resistance, we traded down to 190. here we are back again. the regional banks are sort of out of trouble, i don't think they are, iwm here is interesting. >> guy, you can't talk about iwm without talking about banks. the largest weight in the iwm. and we'll talk about it more in the show, but very much poised to break out here. when you look at the real estate names, we put out a note earlier this week just talking about, hey, these are oversold, they're in uptrends, all this fear is about commercial real estate, regional banks, that was kind of last year's worry, not really this year. so, let's not overrespond to this. i thought what was very interesting, they sold off, credit conditions never changed. we thought they were oversold. you buy that condition.

i think the new high in wells fargo is particularly interesting. >> is that really what you do? we had an analyst earlier this week, we talked to him about regionals and we talked about delinquency rates and when they peak in relationship to the economic cycle. he expects it to be a second half 2025 story. if we're going to see the rate tick higher, so, more trouble for commercial real estate, potentially for regionals, is this the time? >> well, this has been the delayed kind of dynamic where leases are still pretty decent, where some of the loans that the big real estate cres have exposure to have a little bit of time to roll off. the fed announced their june stress test dynamics today, and those banks like new york community bank, which is now over $100 billion and is exposed to the stringent dynamics, it's just interesting. i would say this wasn't real li about the banks. bau chris is talking about -- i would say this is the revenge of the 493 day. it felt like the rest of the market. and it felt like the rest of the market, when i see energy

rallying, xli making fresh all-time highs. this is a case where such underperformance, it's all happening on a day when there was a fair amount of macro out -- if you wanted to have a glass half empty on that macro, you could have, it was weaker retail sales, revisions from some of the strength from the fourth quarter. import prices showing a lessening deflationary trend. i'm not saying they were inflationary numbers, dynamics on industrial production we know were bad. so, i think the market got a chance to look at the broader economy and say, things are pretty decent here. and yet, not runaway, in a place where the fed has to do a whole lot of anything. nothing is good for equities. >> for the banks in particular, you know, like, on tuesday, maybe it sounded kind of glib, you know, this was cpi day as our final call. i said, listen, if higher for longer is a thing, the last time we were at 4.2% in the ten-year, you know, the s&p was much lower you and banks were lower. i said, i wouldn't be buying the

banks. look at the performance today. we can't really put our finger on what that is. i don't think people are buying banks, you know, for outperformance right now. you know, you can say that things feel fine and they do, i mean, like, they're screaming fine for all intents and purposes. i worry about cre, the regionalen banks, and some of the exposure there. i worry about this concentration, and now, the competitive nature in private credit. we're not done here yet. when i look at today, i see jpmorgan breaking out to new highs, the money center banks that we know have issues with their held to security portfolios, as rates move higher -- i don't get why you'd be buying here. >> dan -- maybe it's the markets saying, hey, rates may not go higher. when you look at the groups, particularly within small caps that are leading here, bio tech, software, those are groups that don't do well when rates go up, but they're leading right now. even look at the home

builders -- >> is that the base case scenario, that rates are not going to go higher, it's just if they stay the same or go lower? >> i think the fabric of the leadership is telling us rates flat to down is the most likely path from here. that's why you are getting this oversold response. tim, you made a great point. look at today's price action. there was no advantage to getting defensive or owning the consumer anti-cyclicals, you had a very cyclical response to it. >> i think that's what's interesting, because we've had plenty of opportunities for some of these, you know, 493 to rally over the last month, and they have not. and i think the point is made that on weaker to lower or lower to flat rates, you have a great backdrop for the mag seven, i guess we are still doing it. >> i'm not. >> i'm not. i refuse. >> as do i. but i'll say this, tim mentioned energy. the xle has hung in like a champ on a backdrop where 50% of that etf are three stocks.

exxon, chevron, and con coe phillips, who have not performed. getting dragged up by names like valero, psx, pioneer to a certain extent. if exxon and the other two start to get on their horse, the xle make as new high through probably 100 or so, and i still like energy here, as does tim, i'm sure. >> let's get to one notable laggard amongst the big cap tech stocks today. shares of alphabet sinking 2%, far underperforming both megacap tech and the broader market and hasn't just been a one-day thing. this year, alphabet is basically flat, why microsoft is up over 8%. there's more reason to believe the tech giant is losing ground in the a.i. race. reports today that openai is developing a web search product in conjunction with microsoft's bing engine that could rival google. even apple is making strides, with bloomberg reporting the company is planning to launch a competitor to microsoft's github co-pilot. so, what does alphabet have to do to convince us that it is a

true a.i. play? and i know that we're going to say, the performance of alphabet versus microsoft are virtually neck to neck, but there seems to be a growing disparity as sort of the people play around with sort of the a.i. offerings and start to digest how these are going to be taking unben up by consumers. >> i probably said, i don't think google has been that bad. it's outperformed the nasdaq a bit. it's been kind of dead money for six months, relative to the other big fellas in there, so -- i guess the question is, does google need to prove their prowess in a.i., or is it that microsoft, nvidia, and meta have proved it? is anybody else really proven, amd, obviously, to a lesser extent, other chip companies, but that's my view on google. i'm not worried about bing taking over their search. i like the trends in the macro, the cyclicality of their ad business. pretty solid. >> the question you asked, what do they have to do?

they have to build a better mousetrap. they've been talking about being an a.i.-first company for a very long time and we assume they've been spending billions of dollars on machine learning that was going to lead to these sorts of technologies that be integrated across -- they have nine platforms with over a billion users. they have four or five with over 2.5 billion users, that sort of thing. so, when i think about this space, i say, okay, well, we know how google got where they are, digital ads and search. they need to build something for, like, how people, you know, use search, how they use, like, interact with -- >> to google something. they need to do that in a.i. >> they need to do that, that needs to be an advancement in what they've been able to do, the market share they've been able to gain. every perception that microsoft and also openai or other upstarts have is going to be a knock on google. it's going to keep it below a market multiple. this stock is below a market multiple. when we spend a lot of time talking about microsoft at 35 times, which none of us can

remember, at some point, if they do have a better product, they converge a bit valuation wise. >> technicals s matter. chris is nodding his head. if you look at december of '21, where we traded up to, look at the run we've had over the last year and a half, two years, just got us back to the levels we saw three or so years ago. that's problematic that it does trade at a market multiple. the market's not giving them anywhere near what a microsoft or apple or nvidia -- well, clearly nvidia would trade at, saying, this is what you're worth right now. with the market multiple, that's problematic. >> look at when the stock peaked relative to the s&p. actually, the day the market bottomed in october. so, the fact it's underperformed since then is almost the market saying, hey, this is not an offensive name, this is more of a defensive name. think about the price action sense the earnings. 155 before earnings. we did 136 the next day. we tried to rally, make a new high, failed at 150 and kind of right back to that 140, 135

level. if you give up the earnings low, it was $136.50 on the 31st of january. >> we want to have the chat bots really stacked up. >> we did? i know i didn't. >> chatgpt, google's gemini advanced, as well as perplexity. we asked dan to give it a test drive. take a look. >> all right, it's not all "fast money" all the time. i'm going to las vegas, i'm going to see u2 at the sphere. chatgpt four, how do i get from the wynn las vegas to the sphere? let's go over to gemini. i'm going to ask itthe same question here. and while we're doing that, let's do it on perplexity, also. all right, chatgpt four, it's still going. it's giving me a whole list of things. taxi, ride share, public transportation, walker, scooter. let's go to advanced gemini here from the alphabet here, it's already done, it's got a google map of the sphere, it's got directions, very easy to send to my iphone there, and lastly,

perplexity, oh, man. it just gives me a narrative and a bunch of sources here, not particularly helpful. chatgpt 4, it's done now. no maps, no directions, a bunch of links and stuff like that to do. i'm going with the google gemini advanced. >> that surprised me. were you surprised? >> well, we tried different things. it was interesting. it's going to be different things for different people. and these things are going to get better, but the one takeaway for anybody who is messing around these with sorts of things, it's going to take human verification, especially if it is missing critical sort of information. the last point i'll just make is, i don't have a single microsoft product. the idea that i would subscribe to copilot or gpt 4 is kind of a different thing, that's an openai thing, it's not particularly likely. so, i'm more inclined to use a google product. we've all been trained to go to google search and that sort of thing. so, it comes back o, if they can build a mousetrap that's maybe just as good as the other ones, i think they're going to have a lot of us folks who are not on the product.

>> and that gives the advantage to a consumer-facing company like a google, you have gmail, all of us probably have gmail. >> what do you mean, you assume? >> still on the aol. >> my page? >> but anyway -- >> hotmail. >> but that begs the question of apple. and if apple came out with something, how many people are in the apple ecosystem. how easy would it be for you to say, i have my iphone, my mac, i'm going to go with the apple product. >> that's fair. i'm surprised that dan doesn't have a couple of other stops mapped out, but we'll leave that for another show -- >> i'm going with my wife. >> but i do love his call on dynamic of, google is right in my wheelhouse, every time i'm looking to do something, this is what i think to to. i do think that when i'm on the move, i'm not thinking about my d microsoft, but when i'm at the

desk, i do. the mousetrap that needs to be built right now, i think the bar, not in the market, because we've seen that the bar is very high, i think the bar in the consumer land is actually still quite -- people don't know what they're supposed to have. >> have you tried any of these? >> we tried some of them to kind of work through some of our process, looking at charts -- >> like, how does a chart for nvidia look? what does it is a i? >> what is seasonality like for this stock or that stock? i would say it's 70% of the way there. >> human verification. one last point here. so, you started this conversation with apple -- apple should buy perplexity tomorrow. like, have this -- you know what i mean? this large language model. i actually think the regulators would let them do it. if you think about the arms race that's going on between google, microsoft, amazon, right, between oh a openai, what elon wants to do with x a.i. >> perplexity is like pocket

charge for apple. >> it would be. >> $500 million or so. >> shouldn't apple -- we have to assume based upon what they haven't bought in the past, too, they've been at work at this a long time. i know siri is awful, by the way. i should say -- siri, do you know you're awful? okay, well, she's not talking to me right now. >> she knows it's a family show. she doesn't want to give you the full response. >> there's no question, apple is in the game to me, and i would ben't would be surprised if they make a major purchase. all right, let's go to coinbase. kate rooney has the details on the results. >> coinbase reported a surprise profit, thanks to soaring trading volume in the quarter. bitcoin markets recovered in the fourth quarter. that was a big help. that was up 17%, as far as interest income. the company brought in $1.04 on eps. that was compared to a loss of $2.46 a year ago. tradinge ing volume almost doub.

bitcoin topping $52,000 this week. here's what coinbase's cfo said earlier on "closing bell." >> we've always said that crypto is a volatile space, and when we see increases in volatility, it has long attracted more trading volume to our platform. that's exactly what we saw in the late fourth quarter. >> subscription and services revenue, which is a little more consistent and predictable, that beat, coinbase said, in press release, as well, they gained market share, but they did not disclose a monthly user number yet that might come later in the 10k. also, the take rate, that fell 1% from the prior quarter. they're seeing a higher mix of professional traders, which tend to do more volume, but at a lower fee, guys. back over to you. >> kate, thank you. kate rooney. we've talked about this crazy recent run in coinbase and here it is up another 11%. chris, i'm curious, does the chart look sustainable in your view? >> well, i certainly think it

behaves certainly how it should behave. a month ago, a 40% correction. all it did was bring it back to the 200-day moving average. that was quince dent was the launch of the etf, sell the news type of event. we didn't even kiss the 200 day, we were there for an hour, and now right back to the highs. good charts in uptrends don't even give you a chance to buy them when they're oversold. i think you continue to carry on. >> as someone that's long into this number, expected a lot of volatility and thought we could see it to the downside and still going to be okay with it. we talked about the growing addressable market, the size of the trillion dollar bitcoin market, like, it plays into coinbase's hands. i understand there's a lot of competition, there are etfs, but this is the right playbook until that entire asset class starts pulling back. >> the end of december, we traded up to 180 and change. failed, to chris's point. that's the same level that we broke down from in march of 2022, so -- to chris's point, i think tim is hoping this, close above $186, you are in a new

trading re ing range to the ups coming up, deere downer. disappointing guidance before the bell. the numbers that scared the street. plus, draft kings on the move after they posted a surprise loss for the quarter. we'll debate if the company can keep its crown as competition in the space heats up, right after this. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated.

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truth, unless they start guiding down like they are, then it becomes expensive. you are pretty critical support level at 360, breaks 360, i think it has another 10%, 20%. >> double top. >> that's right, guy. and it's another example of why we don't own the laggards in good groups. i think what's also notable here, though, the weakness in deere did not spread to the rest of the sector. industrials, tim's pointed out, have been leadership for a year. they remain leadership here. they didn't hit cat or emerson today. so, look to that cornerstone of the leadership of this market. deere not infecting anything else. >> it's a good point. like, it's really kind of hard to find -- one-off, we talk about boeing, horrible chart. if you look at the xli, it looks like they are using a.i., or whatever -- it seems like one of the bull market trades. a lot of sectors that are acting a lot better at this stage in the game, confirm what the broader market is doing also. >> the mix is different for

deere, too. be more leveraged to farm, agricultural crops are terrible in terms of price. it's the fundamentals for that sector is not good. >> look, i understand, by the way, price is not linear to valuation, so, one price, but this was a $180 stock before covid. their business changed, because money became more free than ever. and if you listen to what i heard today, it was the demand is a function of higher rates. and at some point, there are a lot of these -- this is a case where i think you see both industrial customers and people that would delay and that's what we're hearing. >> tim has -- >> a john deere. >> i do have john deere. some people call it a lawn tractor. i like to call it a tractor. >> of course you do. >> they have to bring categories, they have large agricultural and they have small agricultural -- >> tim probably has a small one. >> i don't know what you mean by that. >> a push cart. >> i can pull, like, a cart with

my kids behind me. it's fun. >> adorable. >> sounds dangerous. >> for the kids, yes. >> probably going to get some parent -- coming up, some major afterhours action, shares of draftkings and roe cue dropping on the back of their latest reports. inside the numbers from sports betting to streaming right after that. you're watching "fast money," live from the market site in times square. back right after this. pga of america and t-mobile are partnering on 5g-powered analytics to help improve player performance. t-mobile's network helps aaa stay connected nationwide... to get their members back on the road. and las vegas grand prix chose t-mobile to help fuel operations for one of the world's largest racing events. now is the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business. at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off.

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zwri w . roku shares sinking afterhours, despite giving strong sales guidance. julia boorstin's got the details. julia? >> well, melissa, shares are falling on a larger than expected loss, as well as a warning about uncertainty in the year ahead. the company reporting revenue and giving first quarter revenue guidance that beat expectations. but the streaming platform, while it added a million more active accounts than expected, did report that average revenue declined from the year earlier quarter and fell short of estimates. roku saying that while they plan to increase revenue and achieve profitability over time, that, quote, we remain mindful of the

near-term challenges in the macro environment and an uneven ad market recovery. while we will face difficult year over year growth rate comparisons and a challenging media and entertainment environment for the rest of the year, we expect to maintain our fourth quarter platform growth rates into the first quarter. now, as the question of how walmart buying vizio would impact roku, it hasn't come up yet on the call, but we'll be talking to roku's ceo on "squawk box" tomorrow morning and are sure to learn more. melissa? >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin on roku. >> stock went from 56 to 106 in, like, a week, and now we're seeing this pull-back. where do you get in? well, 80 is going to be a huge level, just based on the math i just gave you. and this is a pretty significant decline, but this is a volatile stock, so, i think instead of looking for places to sell it, you say, you know what, line in the sand is 80 bucks, i'll take a shot there. >> you know, given the time we spent about that sports bundle and all the confusing stuff in

and around, like -- >> the last thing you want is a roku. >> they might benefit. this company has never -- or hasn't turned a pro fit since 2021 and that was because the weird dynamics during the pandemic and i say, here's a low double budget percentage a year grower in revenues that is expected to lose money for the next couple years. i just don't know what the upside is here. >> i think there's so many things working in this market that you got to cut laggards fast. that 80 level guy talks about, that's the 50% midpoint from the low back in october to the recent high. it's also the 200-day. if you can't hold 80, you have to move on. let's get to draftkings. reporting a surprise loss for the quarter, announcing an acquisition. shares are moving here. contessa brewer has the very latest. >> well, melissa, the street was expecting profits. earnings of 8 crepts a share, instead, it got a loss of 10 cents. we knew about the luck that turned in customers favors during the nfl betting in the fourth quarter, and draftkings is ready to just leave that in the rear view and move forward.

it raised revenue guidance for this year by $100 million to a mid-point of $4.77 billion. it raised ebitda guidance, as well. and just announced it is acquiring jack pocket, a digital lottery service. jack pocket operating in 18 jurisdictions and really, this gives draftkings access not only to lottery, which is a huge business across the united states, but also opportunities to cross sell to customers who are already gamblers, and so, it lowers the customer acquisition cost. the company told me in an email, by the way, 2.4 million customers bet on the super bowl at draftkings, total game handle, $305 million. melissa, i wanted that information monday, but i'm going to take it on thursday, because that's when i got it. >> contessa, thank you. contessa brewer. tim? draftkings? >> well, that information is important, and the profitability, if you're investing in this company, to me, is less important than those numbers and the numbers they

talked about raising their revenue. if they told you that they made more money, but they're actually downgraded their revenue, the stock would be down 20%, because it's had a massive run. the profitability in the sector is very important. they're not, you know, there's some rationalization amongst competitors. and if that's because they've all agreed on something or because they understand how to be profitable. i think you stay here, and the addressable market continues to grow. >> the acquisition of the lottery company is interesting, and the notion that -- you're basically acquiring customers in a similar business. >> 100%. just another way, client acquisition cost. we talked about that forever with draftkings. this is another way to do it. interesting how they can fit it in, but i'll say this, the stock is not down, really, at all in the afterhours, i think it's encouraging. stan druckenmiller announced he's adding to his stake. the worst is over, i'd stay with

it. >> the stock is 35% above the 200-day moving average, it's been there three other times in the past year. kind of marked the near-term top. it's a fine trend long-term. don't be shocked if you got something back to maybe mid-30s here. >> all right, coming up, nvidia isn't just an investment darling, it's now a big-time investor itself. a look at the stocks getting a boost as the chip didn't gives them a big thumb's up next. plus, small caps, big gains. we'll go off the charts to see this rebound in the russell 2,000, whether it's for real. stick around. "fast money" will be right back. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks rising for a second straight day as the major averages rebound from tuesday's selloff. the dow up just 1%. the s&p up more than half a percent and setting a new record at the close. the nasdaq up .3%. shake shack shares soaring 26% after issuing strong revenue guidance. their best day since 2015. and lyft's monther week rolls on, up 16% today, hitting a

52-week high. the stock has jumped 45% since monday. a couple of movers jf haurs, applied materials popping on the back of earnings fshgt it is up more than 11% right now. it is in dan's zebra acronym, because dan accuses me -- >> you have not been locked in. you have guy's clam. his bicep. >> he wishes. >> which is blicep now. >> we've spent a lot of time dissecting this a.i. trade and it is really largely centered around certain names. there are other ways to play this. >> how are you feeling about this lyft move at this point? too much? worried? >> no, i'm notworried at all. no, i'm not trimming. what i said yesterday, i think the normalization of the environment for ride share, it helps everybody. part of the rally in uber has

been that. i think lyft -- they've had a revolving board in management, they had no confidence from the investor community. i think it's back. i think stock's going higher. >> there's a big, big gap, 19 to 23, i know there's still some juice here. be careful around 23. >> yeah, well, we'll talk in another 15% or 20%. >> you were about to pal him. i know you so well. no, no, i know you -- >> how can you argue with a stock that's moved from 12 to 19? >> i know you. >> discussion. two sides to every story. >> you get palled more than usual. >> did you consider selling a share, like, on the three consecutive days up like this or going quite for his 23? >> did a consider selling a share? >> as it's moved up like this, it's pretty -- >> look, the stock's had probably three, maybe four 40% ranges in the last year and a half, and i haven't touched it. and i, you know, again, there's some stuff you can overtrade.

this would be one. >> are you going to actually give a comment about one of the stocks? >> no, look at the amet chart. this is parabolic. the problem -- it's not a problem, valuation is reasonable. so, i don't know what letter it is in the -- what is it? >> zebra. >> the a in zebra, it wouldn't be the e. >> clearly. let's stick with chips here. not just nvidia getting investors frenzied over a.i. it's the companies they are investing in. disclosing ownership in soundcloud asoundhound one of them. here with more on the halo effect is cnbc's kristina partsinevelos. >> i'm calling it the midas touch of nvidia right now. it strikes again. i say that, because you mentioned arm. c3.ai is part of that list. all higher after that 13-f

filing. the soundhound investment was in 2017, but only released yesterday in the 13-f filing. the investment arm now has assets above $100 million, which is why they have to file that 13-f and revealing all the stakes. and brings us to a potential point of concern. recently, the credit team at barclays pointed out that nvidia's investment arm made 33 investments in startups between january and october 2023. they suggest that nvidia is financing startups who buy nvidia technology, in other words, implying that nvidia could be funding its own customers. it's not often i read more subdued reports on nvidia, but today, there was d.a. davidson, sticking with their neutral rating. cloud cap-x spend, we talk about it, likes of meta, google. going to bode well for nvidia's upcoming guidance. but longer term, they are a little bit more apprehensive, because all four microsoft, amazon, google, meta, are all making their in-house custom

chips, eroding the nvidia dominance. and questions about sustainability post-2025. but the cautious wall street tones are hard to find with over 90% of them suggesting nvidia is a buy. >> any details on the filing about the revenue promised back or the purchases -- no. okay. so customers would potentially make -- dan, you flagged the barclays report when it first came out, and it reminded me, at least, of back when spac was really hot, and then palantir then bought services -- >> this is common behavior. you've seen this all the time. i want to go back to the turn of the century, right, i want to go back to sun microsystems which was making all the servers that were powering all the excitement around the internet and the business models going in. they were doing a lot of vendor financing. we were talking about this this summer, as a guy on the web, talking about the company core

weave which is the sixth or seventh largest customer, they've bought tens of thousands of their gpus. and they were talking about the investment that nvidia had made in that company, and so, when you look at this soundnow, whatever the heck it is, if you look at it, it shows all of their customers and it shows one supplier. that supplier is nvidia. if the commercialization of all these products at all these companies that are funded, they were all losingmoney, doesn't come to bear and they go out of business, that's how the company starts to guide lower. when you talk about the customer concentration, which kristina just mentioned, you have three companies that make up 40% of the revenue, and they're microsoft, amazon, alphabet and meta. so, i guess my point is, like, if they can't charge more for those products any time soon, they've been spending a lot of money, they're going to start ordering less of those chips. they are designing them in-house. that's how the deceleration in this growth happens, and that's how the stock ultimately comes in. i don't know from where, but it

will happen, i guarantee you that. >> i'm sure you covered the 13-f filings yesterday. you'll notice that elliott liquidated their stake in arm holdings. obviously much lower, probably given the timing of this, but the thing about this stock and the move, you can pull up a chart, it's now $140 billion company, just guided to $4 billion of revenues next year. trading 35 times revenues, and for it to grow into that valuation, they have to pull some rabbits out of the hat now. you took latin because you wanted to do well on the s.a.t.s -- >> it's a wonderful language. >> i'm sure. >> isn't it dead? >> it's not dead. >> alive in my heart. >> just saying that. buyer beware. >> the classics. >> sure. >> it was a great "brady bunch" about that. >> there were only great "brady bunches." >> how are you going to translay speeches given by cesar unless you know latin? >> excellent point by you. >> would this be of concern in terms of the nvidia story, the concentration of customers funding some of its own

customers? >> yeah, of course. we would have to call into question a lot of the dynamics that are around the entire space that i think people understand and recognize nvidia is far out in front and so, it's worth noting and it's worth noting what percentage of the sales are part of this dynamic and where we've seen it in other sectors what scares me about nvidia is the move of the chart. >> i agree. now, you don't short right angles, but this has been a right angle. arm has been a right angle. but you have to manage risk. the low on tuesday, tuesday was a shot across the bow, the low was $696.20. you undercut that, you risk a deeper correction. >> kristina, thank you. kristina partsinevelos. coming up, taking a chance of china. are things there so bad they're good? we'll take an investing trip to the mainland after this break. plus, small caps staging a big comeback since their drop on tuesday. one of the traders says there could be more gas in the tank. the names he's watching for a breakout, straight ahead. and during february, we are

celebrating black heritage. here is cnbc's sharon epperson. >> 57% of black business owners were denied bank lobes at least once when starting their business. that's compared to 37% of non-black owners. despite this, many african american entrepreneurs report feeling optimistic about their futures. celebrating black heritage, i'm sharon upper zone.

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welcome back to "fast money." this is not a latching matter. chif neez stock chinese stocks have been under pressure, with the fxi touching 15-year lows last month. shares down 25% over the past year. so, is this the time to buy these stocks? you say maybe? >> i think we're in some capitulation. i laughed when you said china's been a testify spot for the last couple years. it's been a tough spot for 20 years. there's been no money made. it's been lighting money on fire for 20 years. but occasionally, you get the cyclical rallies, and i think

that's what we're setting up for here. you have absolute capitulation over the last couple weeks. last monday, 80% of the shanghai composite made a 52-week low. that is early 2009 type stuff. try to find me a bullish article on china. you can't. now, look at the improvement we're starting to see. >> that's a sweet, like -- >> the u.s. names -- >> usc term. >> new beginnings. >> the chinese currency -- >> sorry. >> has stopped weakening. something's building here, i think its a tradeable rally. >> we're not joking about that. i totally agree with it. and someone that's been investing in china for 20 years, the contrarian dynamics of this trade make a ton of sense. i look at the multiples. you said cyclicality. is cyclicality from a market perspective or from an economic perspective? i'm not sure it has to be the economic perspective. i think it's just about where these stocks and the chinese government is as much to blame about the lack of interest in their underlying companies.

>> i think you could also say, what's the likelihood the next six months are as bad as the last six? and if that are just a little bit less bad, you can get a big move in the stocks. >> look at the fxi chart, it's worth mentioning again, closed at 22, 21, line in the sand. we just rated down there get. you have a very tradeable bottom here with respect to, what's the woman's name that does all the shows -- can't think of her. she has a family that's on -- you know what i'm talking about? >> woman related to bottom? >> the big bottom. the jenner family, with respect to her. >> the big bottom? >> this is a very tradeable bottom. >> my goodness. i'm glad i didn't -- >> kardashians? they watch the show. >> kim watches, i know. >> that's the tradeable bottom. >> that's horrible, but b is the b in your -- >> oh, my goodness. this is a thing! >> we've been doing this for 15 years, i finally -- >> bringing upbicep.

>> how are you feeling about your -- >> anyway. >> i can't even say that. >> obviously you like baba. coming up, small caps surge. the russell 2,000 rebounding after a dip earlier in the week, but it might be the beginning of a bigger move. chris will lay out the chart. "fast money" is back in two. p yd new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley.

welcome back to "fast money." small caps have quickly recouped their losses from tuesday and are now back at their highs of the year. chris thinks the small but mighty group could have even more pep in its step, so, what do you see, chris? >> that's right. i think they really set up nicely here. look at tuesday's price action. they tried to kill these things and they just couldn't keep them down, and 48 hours later, you're back to the highs here. breaking above that 200 level on iwm was a very big deal. but just go back in time here for a moment. the biggest crime small caps committed when everyone was all up in angst about them not working this year, they were simply consolidating a 30% rally in the fourth quarter of last year. let's give them some leash here. i think they will break out. the pattern target is about 240 on iwm. i think importantly, iwm versus qqq, the smallest stocks versus

the biggest stocks, that seems to be putting in some type of a double bottom here. when you look at russell two, remember, one of the largest weights is bio tech. if you want health care in gear, if this is going to work, i like that the russell two bio tech group has really started to break out. it is also industrials. another very big group within small caps. two names we brought along, floor, flr, and summit materials, both in the in infrastructure material complex, pushing out to new highs, so, this is more than just, you know, the ftop of the russell to working. it's broad with bio tech. the banks have bounced here, and we're seeing the industrial names leap. >> flr is interesting. it's not the f in my clam, but marton marietta is. you guys talked about it -- >> the f in your clam is silent. >> as it turns out. good thing, actually. but martin marietta is in the same world. stocks can go higher from here. >> super microis the biggest stock in the russell 2,000, i was surprised by that. >> what's wild, this was an index that used to be fills with

$2 billion, $3 billion company, super microis a $40 billion company. if you look at the russell two equally weighed, the chart looks identical. so, don't fear that it's just one name driving this whole thing. it's much broader than that. >> when kitty stockton was on, she did something on the iwm, as well. i think this is about broader market. not that this even matters, but this is -- iwm, small caps have made relative lows to the s&p for ten years, so, it's always -- one of the -- wasn't intended to be, and i took heat on twitter, kitty did great work, i said, why do we even own small aps. and kind of my point is, it's a part of the market that a lot of people don't own. and clearly, if you have growth questions, and i think part of chris's analysis has to have something of the macro behind it. the macro is better than people expect. and small caps would be under extreme pressure during a period of challenging growth. >> all right, up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> yeah, we talked about other sectors that are starting to pick up and go. resources have kind of lagged and i like freeport. a lot of gold exposure in addition to copper. >> chris? >> i like the small caps. target 230, 240. >> dan? >> yeah, seems like in china, they're trying to kind of support that consumer that's lagging, that would benefit baba. the b in the zebra and the bicep. >> guy? >> huge apologies to the kardashian family. because you know -- >> well, there are a lot of fans, so, if you offended them -- >> i don't mean to be offensive,

i legit forgot the name. >> we embrace all peek of all body types here. >> with that said, i'll stay in tim's world with agnico-eagle mines, melms. >> thank you for watching "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. now, my job is not just to entertain but to teach you. and that's what we're doing tonight. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. tonight i'