asleep. [theme music] ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. european stocks follow wall street higher with the cac 40 and dax touching record intraday highs after the s&p recovers from the cpi route to notch the 11th record close of the year. swiss increases the dividends as is surges 600% on the year.

the wider implications of climate change is flagged. >> what we see coming is the price for climate change for the first time coming at the door of regular consumers. this was a very abstract problem, but you see the practical implications. now nat west beats and confirms the new ceo as the uk lender looks to draw the line under the de-banking scandal. and u.s. vice president kamala harris touches down ahead of the security conference as she looks to reassure worried allies that washington will keep to the defense commitments. welcome to the show. let's kickoff taking a look at how global markets have fared.

we are back to bad news is good news. yesterday, u.s. retail sales surprising to the downside minus 0.2%. what happened on the back of that? stock markets performed well. we had all of the wall street majors end the day in the green. 11th record close for the s&p. another very positive hand over from asia. we are keeping a close eye on the nikkei. we are getting close to the all-time high. 38,957. we are getting closer. not quite there. it feels like soon the japanese index will reach all-time highs once more. the last time we were there was 1989. we had a positive hand over from hang seng. the market is soaring back from lunar new year at 2.5% back. there is a lot of heagreen on t

heat map. today, as we have been talking about the week, there is a lot of focus on the ftse 100. we had another data drop come in this morning. this time we had stronger retail sales numbers than expected. if you take it all together and all of the data we had this week, we had stronger uk retail sales and we had cpi which has come in line with expectations, but lower than what markets had pencilled in compared to the u.s. with the weaker cpi and sales print. i thought that was interesting. ftse 100 is up .70% today. we are seeing good performance with nat west. cac 40 in france is up .60%. yesterday, autos did well. today, we are continuing to see performance in renault and

stellantis. as for sectors this morning, i mentioned minors and basic resources. we spoke about autos up 1% today. on the flip side, we have utilities lagging down .30%. the defensives with food and beverage down .30%. let me tell you more about the retail sales numbers in the uk. january retail sales were up 3.4% on the month. according to the ons, it is the biggest monthly rise in sales since april of 2021. compared to the u.s., retail sales declined 0.8% in january, more than expected. the pullback was driven by building materials and garden stores and motor vehicle parts. meanwhile, weekly jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted

200,000. that is better than the market anticipated despite recent high profile layoffs in the tech and media sectors. let's look back at how u.s. markets have performed week to date. you will recall on tuesday we had the drop post the cpi. toward the end of the week and yesterday, after we had the weaker retail sales, the bad news was good news for the markets. look at where we are on the week. back to where we were at the start of the week which i thought was covered from the drop on tuesday as you see on the chart there. all futures look like they will be opening up in positive territory. the positive momentum and sentiment continues. all eyes on the fed and the central bank. more fed speakers were making the round yesterday. atlanta fed president bostic

saying it is too early to declare victory over high inflation, but that the u.s. outlook has become more balanced. the fed will get another piece of data to assess later today with the january ppi prices. let's bring in the first guest of the show who is the equity strategist. wolf, wonderful to have you on the show. because central bankers are data dependent, ever increasing piece of data is crucial for the market direction from here. is the ppi going to be closely watched given all of the data we've had from the u.s. this week and that upside surprise to cpi on tuesday? >> the market will definitely react to it if there was a big surprise either way. typically the ppi is not the most important number. it is not part of the fed mandate or the number members

are focused on. the read across for pce is the most important inflation number for the fed which is fairly limited. obviously, if there was a massive downside surprise, there could be a reaction. i won't think this is the biggest driver. >> the thing i'm trying to get my head around is market expectations of when the first rate cut keep getting pushed back. now it moved from march to june. yet, markets continue to do well. is it just that stock markets are less dependent on when the rate cutting cycle starts as long as it does start at some point? >> i think the rate cutting cycle matters. it st. is only a second order relevance at the end of the day. what matters is the strength in the cycle and the underlining data. that is where we have seen

improvement in the past few months. interestingly, the cycle has changed the characteristics. it is moving away from the services side in the u.s. and more to the manufacturing side. that is really where we see the data surprising to the upside which is a positive sign for the market in general. manufacturing cycle has been the cycle in recession last year and is starting to come back. this is something that doesn't only happen for two or three months and it is rolling over again. this is a trend which should continue to the middle of the year. if that holds, it doesn't matter what the fed is doing at the end of the day. >> that is interesting. you are the second person to sa yesterday talking about instr industrial data. let's talk about the magnificent seven. i wonder if that basket of stocks will continue in 2024 especially with cracks beginning to emerge.

tech is the second worst performing stock in the s&p 500. >> i don't think we will talk about the magnificent seven at the end of the year. we will talk about the magnificent seven magnificent five or four or three or something like that. you made a point that it is the consumer part of the magnificent seven which is starting to suffer. it is the testing which has come down on the back of the results for the fourth quarter where we see cracks emerging for the month and providing a downbeat outlook. the market is letting the catalyst on the a.i. side for the stock to perform. i think this will change. throughout the year, the consumer in the u.s. will probably see some weakness creeping in, but on the manufacturing side, we may see more strength which will still support the cycle throughout the year saying it is probably no recession coming.

maybe some sort of weakness in general, but the markets should hold up, but change the character. nvidia and other guys in the a.i. sector doesn't matter. it doesn't matter if you operate at the maximum capacity. the cycle is not as relevant for you. >> as a reminder for viewers, nvidia earnings are taking place next week. that is a big focus for the markets and magnificent seven. we talk about u.s. stock market performance and we tend to center around the magnificent seven. goldman sachs put out a piece last week saying a similar phenomenon is happening in europe with the granolas which have been driving lvmh. you have seen a concentrated group of stocks.

is this a bug or a feature of markets and bullish runs? >> it is interesting. as you mentioned, take out asml, you are flat on the european equities year to date. i would think that the european market is in a fairly good position right now. if you look at valuations in general, it's valued more attractive than the uc.s. comin from lower levels. we see the cycle improving to support equities. with the cyclical recovery on the manufacturing side, that is helping the european market in a global context. it is a global phenomenon because we have seen the european manufacturing cycle thint coming back from the fourth quarter last year. the european market can continue

to perp formance broaden to the beneficiaries and accelerating si cycle. >> wolf, thank you for coming on the show. it makes sense. the equity strategist from asset management. our colleagues in the u.s. will speak with atlanta fed president bostic at 17:00 cet. nat west is up this morning 2 2.2%. it has a pre-tax profit of 6.2 billion pounds. the uk lender confirmed puaul thwaite as the new ceo after the previous disclosed sensitive information from the bank. elsewhere, the sika net

profit fell despite a net gain in sales and 60% jump in operating cash flow. it expects to increase as much as 9% in local currencies this year. the stock is up 3.3%. umicore posted a 7% decline and said it expects a ramp up of new customer contracts in europe as well as growth in the battery materials business. the firm's ceo told cnbc the group remains resilient. >> we have been in a year last year that was marked by a significant decline of the precious met the prmetal price. we posted a 25% ebita margin environment. it is a strong message. let me make a last point of 2023

which was a year where we have finalized preparations for the growth forward. we talked about the 2030 rise strategy two years ago and last year, we have been able to replace many assumptions in that plan with facts and data. we have now a global footprint in the battery material business. we have secured strong order book toward 2030. we are guiding today, first time, on the battery material profitability with around 22% ebita margin. and swiss re has a profit of $3.2 billion, a near 76aion, 6 $3.2 billion, a near 7600% increase from the year before. the company announced a 6% increase in the dividends. the stock is down 2% today. the ceo of swiss re addressed the implications of climate

change for consumers. >> it is to put a fair price to risk and i think we have actually been lagging a bit in the last few years with climate changes risk increased a lot. you see that in the profits which were not adequate the last few years. this is the reassessment of the risk. to a certain extent, we see the price for climate change for the first time coming at the door of regular consumers. so far it was an abstract problem, but here you see the prok c practice al implications. coming up on "street signs," the war in ukraine heads towards the second year. we'll be live from the munich security conference after the break.

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welcome back to the show. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken is set to meet with the chinese counterpart at the munich security conference

today. u.s. vice president kamala harris touched down overnight ahead of the key address today. harris will pledge the u.s. will never retreat obligations from nato and denouncing the dangerous approaches to foreign policy. anyone's guess who she is referring to. the european commission president told the financial times warning that the world has the buffer. the plans include using the eu budget to finance joint weapons contracts signed by eu members. all of this is going to be on the agenda at the munich security conference. silvia joins us now. silvia, i would think that ukraine defense is high on the agenda. we just had reports from the ukrainian president's channel

saying mr. volodymyr zelenskyy has arrived in germany on a working visit. >> reporter: exactly. president zelenskyy is in germany and ukraine will be a focus of the conversations happening here in munich. i have to say that i'm joined now by ukraine's deputy prime minister. good morning. good to see you in person. first and foremost, what is the situation on the ground? there are reports that ukrainian soldiers are withdrawing from the battlefield. >> well, the situation on the battlefield is heavy and basically we're still in the same phase of war as it was for the last year. the frontline has not been moving significantly on any

side. the hold is the fight itself. we have been advancing when it comes to the technology. it allows us to make sure that the losses are growing for the russian army. we continue to secure the black sea corridor and the recent and bright operations have been released. the most complicated part is we he face the massive attacks throughout the territory of ukraine. so far, ukrainians feel safe in most of the areas of ukraine. they know the skies are secured by prsd and other elements of military equipment. we cannot afford thinking we would have a shortage in the ability to protect civilian cities. we are looking for the global

political development in the military support for ukraine. we are standing. >> what are you hoping to achieve at the military security conference? zelenskyy is expected here tomorrow. what would you like to hear from your allies here? >> first and foremost, we would have nearly eight meetings related to the security situation in ukraine with the nato planning process. it is a very important attention ahead of the nato summit in washington. we have a massive u.s. delegation here and leadership from the baltic countries. it is an important opportunity to have the meetings to agree on the joint efforts and make the decisions handled at different levels and also to bring back ukraine as the global agenda. the war is in europe. it is not the regional conflict. it might not be that strongly

felt in d.c. because europe is generally overseas. this is the biggest european country. this is where the spirit of the discussion is here. our major outreach is to form the agenda for the global european security for strengthening defense capacity and making sure we can shield ukraine from a political turmoil in areas in the world. >> you mentioned there is a huge delegation from the united states. when you look at what is happening in congress at this stage, a huge question if the house will vote on that foreign aid bill and whether they will stand for further support for ukraine. what do you say to u.s. lawmakers? >> it is hard to say any relevant message apart from any of those we already mentioned. we are dying and we might die

and we might not be standing here. it is vital for me and the 4 million ukrainians which is the largest european nation. i think the major message on my side is that there's no way for ukraine not to prevail in this war. there's no way europe will not restore its security and peace. there is no way that europe doesn't become stronger and more capable to defend itself. it is a matter of time. ukraine has been showing persistence and a commitment. ukraine has never let anybody down. the president will address the audience as the voice of democracy and freedom fighters. it is very important that if ukraine will have to suffer more because of the inability of politicians to agree on the support ukraine needs, it is a u t process. >> do you feel there is an understanding in the united

states that this war is also important for them when you hear the former president donald trump saying he would do whatever the hell they want with other nato countries? >> democracy is democracy. policy is policy. the elections are the elections. it's something that goes beyond any comprehension on our side. regardless, different political statements from different candidates and the parties. at same time, ukraine has been there and fighting for ten years with a full-scale aggression. it is already president trump who has been the president while the war waging on and now president biden. we managed to withstand all of

the political turmoil. at the same time, when russia forms the coalition with china and north korea, all of those causes and basically pulls a direct military invasion into nato countries, there could be a lot of rhetoric, but actions need to be taken. the world could wake up in a different shape. >> you said you worked with donald trump in the past. his rhetoric is getting more fiery at this stage. are you worried you will have to work with him again? >> we are not worried about anything. we would have to work with everybody and anybody. it is very different. it is not a political rhetoric. it is a matter of survival or commitment in front of people. those guys on the frontline are human beings. this is a nation which is cherished europe and the european choice.

it is something that we will remember by the end of the day when europe will restore its peace. >> i want to finish on this point. two years ago, we had president zelenskyy here asking important help on the eve of the full-scale invasion. how much longer can you keep fighting without additional aid? >> it is the same question for the people who have been living under the tyranny in the soviet union or the western germany. they have been believing until the world was fallen and this is not a choice. ukraine is not choosing. ukraine is choosing its existence. we will prevail. again, the matter is will w we remember at the end of the day? we are confident on the german partners and french partners and as a whole.

it will take longer to adjust to the new reality to bring more capability and defense. ukraine will stand as long as it is needed. >> thank you for your time. >> reporter: pleasure speaking with you. i'll hand it back to you, joumanna. that was the ukrainian deputy prime minister. it will be very important to hear from president zelenskyy when he addresses the main stage tomorrow. >> silvia, thank you for the coverage. i appreciate it. silvia is going to be speaking to plenty of people at the month itch s munich security conference today. stay tuned for that later today. also coming up on "street signs," a bad night for uk prime minister rishi sunak. opposition wins two key seats.

well have more after the break.

welcome back to "street

signs." i'm joumanna bercetche and thes are your headlines. the s&p 500 recovers from the cpi route to notch its 11th record close of the year. swiss re ups dividends as profits surge 600% on the year. the ceo flags the wider implications of climate change. >> the reassessment of the risk. what we see is the price for climate change. the first time coming at the door of regular consumers. it was an abstract problem, but you see the practical implications. nat west beats on pre-tax profit on the full-year results as the uk lender looks to draw a line under the deep banking scandal. u.s. president vice

president kamala harris looks to reassure worried allies with the defense commitments. we had that weaker than expected u.s. retail sales print yesterday propelling wall street higher with the s&p with the 11th record close with the positive hand over from asia as well. i need to draw your attention to the cac 40 and dax. these touched an intraday record high yesterday. it is not just the s&p and the nikkei which is inching close to record highs. in europe, the stoxx 600 is sitting close to a two-year high. good momentum in industrials within the dax and cac 40. autos have been driving the gains the last two days. renault and stellantis. and keeping a close eye on the

macro data with the uk retail sales which are strong this morning. the strongest increase month on month in a couple of years since april of 2021. if you take that in conjunction with the data this week, we had weaker cpi and retail sales, it has been mixed. in terms of foreign exchange, this is the currency this morning. the euro is 107.70. dollar/yen versus the nikkei, you will see in the last couple months which has been moving in tandem. you have to wonder how much of that performance in the nikkei is due to the weaker yen. something to think about. the pound is trading weaker despite the stronger retail

sales print. as for yields, ten-year bund is .30% higher. btp is higher. after the nfp print last friday, we saw that continue with the cpi. we are coming back with the two-year note at 0.64%. the market pushed back the timing of the first rate cut. we now see june being when the fed will start the cutting cycle. this is the picture today. we have the s&p up ten points. dow is opening lower 20 points and the nasdaq up 100 points. all of that in terms of data

where you watch out for ppi. it would not be a major market moving print, but if you take it with all of the other data we have out of the u.s. this week, the cpi print, the ppi print is watched for the core pce. swit switching to the uk, the opposition party leader in labour got a boost in elections overnight in a bruising night for rishi sunak. uk fell into recession last year and flat lined for all of 2023 despite a promise to grow the economy. a lot going on and a lot to talk about. let's bring in robert ford, professor of political science at the university of manchester. let's start with the elections. the swing from conservative to

labour is the biggest in post-war era. it was a terrible night for the conservative party. >> that is right. the swing was the second biggest ever recorded. the only person who did better was tony blair in 1997. that is not exactly a comforting precedent for the conservative party. these results like the results in the series of elections in the second half of last year point to a labour party on course for a very big election win in the general election which is due within the next 12 months. >> it is difficult to understand exactly what is going so within the conservative party right now. to your mind, what is the calculus for the prime minister to hold off the general elections at this point? what are they trying to achieve? is there anyone within the party who thinks they could narrow the

gap with labour? >> i think there will always be people who think the gap can be narrowed. hope springs eternal in politics. in the parliament of 2005 to 2010, they managed to narrow the polls before losing that election. in this stage in the election cycle, conservatives were making up ground which means they were taking edge off the defeat. so far in the last few months, we have seen no evidence whatsoever of any rehe covery f the conservatives and rishi sunak. if you are looking to hold off the elections as long as possible, there is a issue in britain for someone who hopes something will turn up. that is the strategy here. >> we are actually getting lines from the british prime minister rishi sunak. he is just saying now i believe our plan is working.

election results show the conservative party has work to do. those are comments judgmest com through. there is an additional factor contributing to the lessening of support for the conservative party. that is the emergence of the reform party. what does that do to eat away from the popularity of the tories? >> reform posted a double digit share notices in the elections yesterday. it is a big headache for the conservatives. most of the support is coming off the right fringe of the coalition. these are highly unlikely to support the labour party, but willing to vote reform over conservative. if the conservative lose shares at this scale on the right flank in the general election t , it could be a disaster for them. there is no way of sugar coating that. 10% reform share in the general

election would cause dozens of conservatives their seats. >> let's talk about the labour party policy plans. in recent weeks, they came under criticism for watering down the pledges. they seem to get away with this so long as they are not the conservative party. >> that is the broad move at the moment. it is a very anti-incumbent move. they are in the mood to change governments and ditch the conservatives and labour is not facing a lot of pressure on things like that. they basically seem to be trying to maximize the votes from the conservative party by minimizing the threat they pose to such voters. for the moment, that is not a problem. it is potentially storing up problems for the parliament when they win. one is the green performance. the greens went up in kingswood

and did not get squeezed in welling. that means there is a slice who emphasize environmental issues would may not be willing to loan votes to the labour party. i suspect once they are in government, that is a growing problem for them. >> assuming the labour party wins the next elections which is what the polls point to, what exc changes can we expect? >> probably not a great deal at the very beginning. labour is committed to following the same spending plans as the conservatives. that will limit room for maneuver. i think we will see moves to raise taxation on the very wealthy. we will see, for example, raids on the non-dominance individuals who don't pay a high rate of tax. we will see action in the terms of the planning system in

britain which functions as a massive constrain on house building. the current coalition is people can't afford housing and the thing about planning reform, it doesn't cost money. it is something you can do if you are fiscally constrained. those are the areas to see the first major activity when the new leg of government comes in. >> robert, we will leave it there. thank you for joining me on the show. robert ford. professor of political science at university of manchester. diageo has brands including guibe g g gunniess and bailey's. arabile visited the laboratory outside london. >> this is where we come together to create the liquids and creating small amounts of

liquids to begin the process toward what will be sitting on the shelf or bar for the consumer. >> what drinks have been developed here? >> some of the world's biggest spirits over the last few de decades have started in this lab. in particular, any of the new innovations and flavors launched from smirnoff and bailey's have all started here. >> this is the lab. this is where we can test the drinks with real tasters from the expert panel. >> branding is crucial to diageo. what happens when you create the product? sd . >> the process of creating liquids is part of the process. when we create the liquids, we have amind.

it is important with the testing with the brand and liquid and how we bring it to design. >> i can imagine you get a lot of data. how does the seem choose which amount of data to work on and how do you work around the process of getting the information into r& d? >> the tools give you the raw material. then you need the teams that are experts in fine tuning and distilling that data for the process of application. we have developed that kno know-how over time to give us the macro trends and they are able to translate them layer by layer to then turn a very specific decision. >> let's talk about a.i. which

comes into the equation. does it decide which products you put out and when you put them out? >> a.i. has multiple applications that are at diageo. it is gathering insights from consumers from multiple data sources that are available and appl applicable. information that is forming our research. >> for the full report on arabile pulling a pint of guinness, you can see marketing media money this weekend on cnbc. ahead, coinbase reports a profit for the first time in two years. we'll have more after the break.

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wealcome back to the show. could nvidia have the a.i. touch? it has jumped since the tech

firm disclosed statikes on wednesday. alphabet shares sank on the back of openai is opening a search product to compete with google. it will be owned by bing and this comes as a.i. competitors could take a chunk out of the google search business which is a majority of the revenue. coinbase shares surged with fourth quarter net income at $273 million on the 50% jump in revenue. arjun joins me on set. big jump for coinbase. what is that to do with the resurgence in bitcoin and the fact the value has gone up and

the market cap back to $1 trillion again. >> the investors are celebrating the company has turned a profit for the first time in two years. that is down to the cost cutting measures last year with the reduction of head count and layoffs last year and making the business more efficient. the second part is the crypto market last year with bitcoin up 150% last year. some of that brought traders back to the market with coinbase. you saw the transaction volumes jumping significantly in the fourth quarter. the third part of the equation is etfs. the excitement of the etfs. the concern of the advent of etf might take business away from coinbase. coinbase is a custodian to 8 of the 11 issuers there.

what was interesting is overall transaction volume for 2023 on coinbase is down versus 2022 despite the jump in the market. that speaks to a broader theme here and conversations i have had with the industry and that is is the retail trader back in the crypto market? that is not the case, it seems, at this point. >> are the margins higher? >> they turned a profit because they dropped expenses. layoffs and et cetera. they saw transaction volumes return. some of the other businesses are doing well. custodian business and other stable coin businesses are doing well. >> fascinating. i want to ask about another story that stuck out to me overnight. alphabet shares under pressure because it looks like chatgpt is coming out with a search

competition. interesting development. the announcement was enough to send alphabet shares lower. >> alphabet should be worried. they are very good with those products. you see what they do with chatgpt and now in the last few hours, they released a product called sora. i have seen the demonstrations it is stunning what can be produced. >> is that the one that changes text to video? >> yes. to create video. that is something that comes with a host of dangers. clearly openai is being taken seriously at this point. the technology with generative a.i. the question for any openai product is how safe can they make it? google makes money on the search business because the search product is reliable and doesn't throw out offensive or a search that would go against the

advertiser. they use sponsored links. one question of the generative a.i. is how much control does openai have over the product and what search will it throw out and will advertisers take the risk on being able to advertise against that risk. >> it will be a big week for the magnificent seven next week with nvidia. you will do a preview of that. that will be a big determination if the nvidia and all a.i. chips continues. arjun, thank you so much for the top tech stories from overnight. let's turn to european markets. the focus, of course, has been on the ftse 100 today. we have had better than expected uk retail sales data come through. to give you the numbers, 3.2% increase on the month. that is higher than the figure of 1.7%. it is the largest one-month increase since april of 2021. it reverses the decline of the

prior month. what we are seeing is miners are having a good day at the top of the ftse 100. it is up .70%. cac 40 is doing well today up .60%. a good performance in autos and stellantis and renault. we see a good recovery in the industrial names. as for u.s. futures, once again, we saw a rebound in the u.s. majors. s&p opening up nine points higher. dow is lower and the nasdaq 100 points higher. the focus is the ppi numbers today and that is coming after the hot cpi print on tuesday is key for direction going forward in terms of how the plmarket pieces together the inflation in the u.s. before we go, an

announcement from my side. this is my last "street signs." and last show at cnbc. the first on-air report in 2017 about hsbc and it feels like yesterday. so much has happened since then. i have been extremely privileged to cover some of the big business and political stories in europe. i appreciate everyone who sat down with me for interviews from central bankers to ceos and fund managers. thank you, viewers, who tuned in and placed trust in our coverage. a big thank you to my colleagues. my wonderful anchor julianna who is watching. our show producer david and all of the extremely hard working producers. katie and brit. these shows go to air thanks to you. a huge thank you to the whole team and gallery and directors

in my ear. all adam and will and roger and sophie. it takes a village. i'm lucky to have so many friends. i'll leave with the quote from the former u.n. secretary-general. for all that has been, thanks. for all that is to be, yes. good-bye.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." back at records. stocks off the late-day rally pushing the s&p back over the 5,000 mark. top of mind for investors is the fed and inflation with the big economic report due out in three hours from now adding to the uncertainty is new comments from bostic on the war against inflation. a big day for big money movers, including coinbase which

hasn't doing something in tw