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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  February 16, 2024 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

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trades." bill? >> leidos. it is breaking out, trying to break out above its 2020 high. great earnings report. >> shannon? >> utilities. longer term trend on secular tail wind. >> joe? >> vulcan materials. >> that does it for us. we're out of time. "the exchange" starts now. ♪ ♪ courtney, thank you very much. hi, everybody, i'm tyler mathisen. here's what's ahead on this edition of "the exchange." sentiment rose, the chance of a march cut looking less and less likely from the fed with atlanta's fed sticking with his forecast of two. but our economist sees four this year, and says the fed would be mistaking -- making a mistake if they delay. gold prices climb thing week with inflation still proving sticky. is the precious metal poised for
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a nice run? we'll explore that. housing starts falling at the lowest level sense the start of the pandemic last month. what that indicates about the spring season and where prices could beheaded. but let's get on a check of the markets. the dow and s&p shrugging off the data as the day goes on. the dow basically flat. turned positive in the last hour. the dow had been down 190 points but nothing approaching with what we saw on tuesday. the nasdaq, the underperformer there, as i look over and see it down 0.3 of a percent. s&p 500 essentially flat. that decline in the markets is thanks in part to a climb in yields, following that ppi print. the ten-year back above 4.3%. 4.29% right now. but nunli nudging up there.
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as mentioned, wholesale prices posting their biggest increase since august. and basically dashing any hope for a marsh rate cut. especially if the increase in consumer prices came through earlier this week. the market's expectations for a cut next month have been slashed, and the next guest says the fed would be making a mistake by not cutting. mark, welcome. good to have you with us. i'm wondering if, as you say, the economy is quickly approaching that sweet spot for the fed, which is price stability and economic growth at the same time. why you would think we would need to cut rates, why not just leave them where they are if it's coming in, sliding in nicely? >> well, the fed's got two objectives, tyler. one is to achieve full employment, the other is low and stable inflation.
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we're there, or darn close on the economy, on full employment, 3.5% to 4%. inflation, you know, we're within spitting distance. expectations are well anchored. financial conditions are right where you want them. so then you have to ask, if we're there, why the federal funds rate, that's well above the rate that's consistent with monetary policy neither supporting or restraining growth. the fed puts that at 2.5 or 3, why do that and run the risk? growth feels like it's slowing in the labor market. hiring is down. hours are down. jobs are down. the only thing that's keeping it moving forward is the low layoff rate. and, you know, we are also going to see signs of slowing in terms of overall economic growth.
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so of course, the financial markets are under a lot of pressure when rates are this high and the yield curve is inverted. so why? why take the risk when -- just declare victory. we're there. >> mark says, steve, why take the risk? why keep rates as high as they are, higher than what the fed would describe as an equal lib rheeium rate. what is your reaction? >> the other side is you're not playing for this year or even the next several months, you're playing long-term here. remember what volcker did, it echoed over decades in ringing inflation out of the system. i kind of think powell is playing for a longer game here. if you were to go back and essentially start cutting rates, inflation were to kick back up again, the trouble you would have is you would not convince people of the seriousness of what you're doing. mar you daley just did a speech
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called "built to last" and she met inflation levels that are built to last. so you get the sense the fed is playing a bit of a longer term game here. the market is right, but i think mark maybe underestimates the upside. you convince businesses and consumers that the fed is serious about its target, that could have benefits over many, many years. >> mark, steve is making the argument that by keeping the fed's foot on the neck of inflation with these numbers that have come out this week that are a tad higher, a little bit more than forecast, albeit, as you say within spitting distance of the target. why not go that extra mile and keep the pressure on inflation for not just, you know, a 12-month cycle, but maybe a 24, 36, or even longer cycle? >> well, why? inflation expectations in the
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bond market, they're right where you want them. look at five-year forwards, inflation expectations among consumers right where you want them. look at the michigan survey today. inflation expectations exactly where we want them. people are convinced we're there. the longer you keep rates this high, you run the risk of pushing the economy under, you have to ask yourself to what end? for what reason? here's the other thing i just said. if you look at the core consumer expenditure, the inflation measure the fed is targeting at 2%, you look at that, take the forecast for january. we're going to get a strong number, it will come in at 0.35. take that. we're just north of 2%, we're there. so why keep, as you said, keep your foot on the neck of the economy and run the risk of breaking it to what end? i just don't get it at this
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point. here's the other thing. i'm not arguing, you know, let's slash interest rates. but let's just start slowly lowering rates a quarter point a time and see how it goes. you can always start and/or reverse yourself. but i think at this point the risk is higher we'll push the economy under. >> steve? >> well, a couple things. first of all, mark if i'm not wrong, inflation expectations were at 3% in the michigan numbers, not 2%. that's what i saw this morning. you're right, though. guys, i got a chart in the back, here's what happened, tyler. we did a quick wrap it up data on core pce forecast for the fed 29 number. it's up to 0.4%. you can see that right there. but there's the annualized rates. so mark is right, we will be a hair above the 2% target.
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but it's going the wrong way, except for the year over year. there's the monthly forecast right there. so i mean, i kind of see it. i would love for the fudd to be able to cut interest rates here. i don't think there's a whole lot of downside right now. maybe that's where mark and i differ to the fed taking its time here. i think doing it in six months rather than in four months is not that big a deal. and i do like the idea of going every quarter, but being cautious here. part of it is, let's be clear. mark is a great forecaster. he has confidence in his forecast. i feel like the fed may be a little less confident in doing policy based on its own forecast here. >> mark, last word to you. >> can i just point one thing out? the federal reserve make a mistake in early 2022 when they kept the funds rate down, way too long and didn't respond to the inscipient inflation developing. there's a lot of things going
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on, but they're running the same risk on the opposite side here. no reason to do that, given everything that's going on in the economy. declare victory and cut rates. >> very interesting. good argument. a very good presentation of different points. appreciate it, mark and steve liesman. thanks, guys. despite a hawkish fed, stocks have proven resilient this year. our next guest says that thesis has been called into question. there's a slew of companies lower guidance and seeing cracks this the consumer. where should you put your money to work? mark smith joins us. good to have you with us. >> thanks for having me on, tyler. >> you just heard the debate with mark and steve liesman. where are you on this? would you take comfort if the fed were to cut rates in march or by may, or is that an urgent need for the fed? >> i would be shocked if the fed cut rates in march.
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that's just because of the numbers. we've seen a number of different numbers over the last two months. powell going on "60 minutes" saying he doesn't see march where he can cut rates. what does that mean for my clients? my clients are not buying housing. the housing numbers, rates are over 7% on a 30-year fixed. folks are staying where they are. clients have been in their house for 20, 25, 30 years. baby boomers might want to move down to florida, but they're not doing it. and real estate hasn't budged that much, either. for all those reasons, i'm thinking that many of the clients i talked to don't want to do anything until the fed has made up their mind when they're going to lower rates, and we're all looking at the numbers, because it's affecting businesses that want to invest this their businesses. it's affecting folks that want to buy homes. we're just watching and waiting to see what's going to happen.
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>> correct me if i'm wrong here, your view is no rate cuts in 2024. you think that's true? >> i think it's possible, because the numbers aren't dictating that. i mean, we heard folks throughout the day say two, maybe three. a few folks from the atlanta fed say maybe two. there's a possibility if we continue to run hot, there are no rate cuts. if you look historically at mortgages, my parents had a 13% fixed rate mortgage on their home. so i wouldn't be surprised if powell keeps thing where is they are until they are sure inflation is where they need to be. >> when you counsel clients on where they should put their money right now or where you manage it for them, what are you telling them and where are you putting that cash? >> don't fight the fed. the fed is making sure that inflation is steep, and they're going to continue to have this
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hawkish approach until that happens. no one on this broad cast has said that yet. i think that's what the fed might want to start is like our last guest, mark said, try to trust the economy. if that happens, you want to make sure you're in large-cap u.s. companies. if a recession happens, you'll see the number one reason the stock market has done well is because of the consumer. you're seeing a crash in consumer. a trillion dollars in credit card spending. so you will see a recession eventually. if that happens, you want to be in large-cap names. companies that have huge robust portfolios, that are implementing ai and global. so that's where i would be, that's where i'm telling my clients to be. although growth -- go ahead. >> i'm sorry, i thought you were finished, mark. we talk a lot about the
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magnificent seven here, maybe now the magnificent six, because tesla doesn't look that magnificent anymore. but would you include those on your buy list here, or are some among them that you would say, these are just too pricey to touch right here? >> listen, i have clients who won't open an account if they don't have one of the magnificent seven. it's products they're using every day, stocks that you are not going to sell. so you may want to resire and go to municipal bonds and not have to worry about the market. but if you want to take risk, how do you not own some of the most profitable companies this country has ever seen. so if they go down 10%, 15%, that's an opportunity to buy. and a lot of these clients that i have are also mandating that they have these stocks. if you have companies like we saw last week that are up 20% in one day, you know, you even have some of these millennials that don't want to buy bitcoin,
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because you have some of these companies in the magnificent seven that are doing terrific that have real growth. >> generational holds is a phrase that i'm going to take away from this conversation, mark. thank you very much. very buffet of you. love it, man. very nice. thank you. mark smith of wells fargo. coming up, the price of gold up 10% since october. what does that say about the state of inflation and commodities? we'll explore that with the ceo of one mining company with operations around the world. plus, if you've ever gotten a credit card offer in the mail, there's a good chance that fico's ai software had something to do with that. and we have the role artificial intelligence is playing, when "the exchange" returns after this. nice to meet ya. my name is david. i've been a pharmacist for 44 years mainly because i just love helping people. as i got older, it was just a natural part of aging,
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i felt that my memory was beginning to decline and that's when i started looking for something that would help. when i first started taking prevagen, i noticed my memory was so much better. just stuff seemed to come together and fit like a jigsaw puzzle in my mind. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. (fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers and fit like a jigsaw puzzle in my mind. are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher investments. (other money manager) ok, then you probably sneak in some hidden and layered fees. (fisher investments) no. we structure our fees so we do better when clients do better. that might be why most of our clients come from other money managers. at fisher investments, we're clearly different.
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welcome back, everybody, to "the exchange." gold prices popped after tuesday's cp ireport, climbing again today on the ppi data. there you see it. copper on pace for its best week since december 1st. our next guest knows a thing about both of those minerals. you reported a beat on the top and bottom line after the beat yesterday. congratulations on that. business is good then? >> business is very good.
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it's nice to be on the show, tyler. >> great to be here. >> where are you seeing the greatest demand, is it in gold or other minerals or both or all? >> all. you know, so gold is both a commodity and a currency. on the commodity side, we are seeing very strong markets, and we expect to see strong markets. the one thing i would say, tyler, about commodities, especially important critical metals, is it's not just what you're mining these days, it's where you're mining. this whole issue of security and supply. the less we've been accustomed to security of supply of energy, i think the next 15 or 20 years it is going to be equally important to secure metal supply. with regards to gold, which trades as a commodity and a kurnty, it's benefiting from the commodity cycle but also
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benefiting frankly from the currency cycle. and by that, i mean it is the only hard currency in the world that's not subject to the printing press. >> yeah, it has that role as a store of value. your operations are across the globe, canada, australia, finland, mexico, i assume some in the united states or developing there in the u.s. and colombia. so that speaks to that question of security of supply. i mean, if you're relying on canada, australia, mexico, among others, finland, you're looking at secure supply chains that are not subject to threat or political instability, et cetera? >> 100%, tyler. and look, there's -- you know, we need to mine -- the world needs to mine critical resources all over, in all countries. but our view is we are regional players based on the best
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regions in the world, and we define the best regions as, of course you have to have the gee logic potential of multiple mines over decades, and you have to have the political stability to be able to mine multiple mines for multiple decades. in our business, you're investing billions over decades, and you know what? once you build a mine, you can't move it. >> forgive me for not knowing this, i asked this question out of genuine curiosity. because i don't know how the gold mining business works. but when you extract an ounce or 16 ounces or 100 ounces of gold, do you then remine it and then who buys it from you, and at what price? who are you selling to? >> that's an excellent question, and i'm not sure that the average person knows that. it gets to this point of it being a currency.
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so we and other miners, we mine gold and we produce something called dori, which is a bar, it looks like gold but it's not pure gold. it might be 50%, 70% gold, and then you'll have silver, copper, what else, other things in it. the important thing is, we then send that to refineries accredited refineries in different parts of the world. and interestingly, tyler, once it's refined into lbma, in other words, 99.9% gold, it effectively becomes a currency, because we sell it basically to banks. but we don't really sell it to retail. we don't sell it to jewellers. the banks buy it, and it becomes part of -- it's more of a currency. it's fungible. one barrel of oil in texas isn't
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the same price as a barrel in alberta. but an ounce of gold in kazakhstan is worth exactly the same as an ounce of gold in toronto. that's one of the reasons it's a currency. >> so when you take that block that you described that has other things in it and you have it refined, you're still the owner of that property, you're paying to have it retyped into the 99% pure gold and then you sell it to a bank? >> correct. >> for whatever the global price is that day. >> exactly. it's almost like, you know, a good analogy would be, we are mining a currency. it doesn't become a currency until it's fungible, which means it has to be refined. but our business, we don't have a marketing team. we don't have to go out and find somebody to buy it. the market is out there and, you know, the banks start with it and then move it on.
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>> and the bank buys it, and how does it get delivered to them, by truck? i'm curious. where do i find those trucks? how can i intercept them? >> again, i know i'm overusing it, it's a currency, so it doesn't have to get delivered. you can have it delivered to you, and a lot of central banks to have it delivered. but a lot of central banks keep their gold in london. if they want to sell, they just pick up the phone and sell it. they don't have to have to move it. again, very similar to u.s. dollars. >> thank you so much for educating me. i learned something. i learn something every day, but we appreciate it. >> it's a pleasure. thanks for the time. all righty. coming up, we're going around the world in three buys and a bail featuring this name, up more than 20% to start the year. y r trader says it's the best
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welcome back. joe biden spoke earlier reacting to russian opposition leader alexei navalny's reported death and when asked if it was an assassination, biden said this. >> we don't know exactly what happened, but there's no doubt that the death of alexei navalny was the consequence of something that putin and his thugs did. >> u.s. supreme court justice samuel alito has temporarily halted a $2.4 billion settlement
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from the boy scouts of america for decades of sex abuse claims today, after a group 144 sex abuse victims asked the supreme court to block it last week, saying that the deal would unlawfully keep them from pursuing other organizations that aren't bankrupt, such as the churches. officials in kansas city announcing today that two juveniles have been charged in connection with the shooting at the super bowl parade that left one woman dead and 22 others injured. they were officially charged yesterday on gun related and resisting arrest charges and being held in a juvenile detention center. back over to you, tyler. >> see you in a little bit. thank you very much. home builders under pressure after january housing starts posted the biggest decline since april of 2020, in that hotter than expected wholesale report sent mortgage rates soaring. diana has the details. >> first-time mortgage rates,
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the average on the 30-year fixed jumped to 7.14%, according to mortgage news daily. that after the producer price index came in hot, sending bond yields higher, the highest rate we have seen in two months. then we got the january read on residential construction this morning. the headline number was a huge miss. total starts down nearly 15% from december, breaking it out, though, multifamily was the main driver, down 36% month to month. we know apartment developers are pulling back, because there are so many new units already coming on the market this year, a record number in fact last year and this year. single family was also down much more than expected. that's a bit surprising given the strong new home sales number we saw in december. that sent stocks like leonard, dr horton down. interesting, though, while starts were way down, single family building permits, which are an indicator of future construction, rose 1.6%
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month-to-month and up 36% from january of last year. so builders still see a runway ahead. but with rates rising again now, and numbers coming in showing inflation still a problem, let's just say it's not a great way to get into the spring housing market, which by the way, tyler, unofficially starts this holiday weekend. >> diana, stick around. as we bring in a ceo to talk a little more about the sliver of the realty market, one of the biggest laggards in the s&p 500 today. with shares up more than 20% today thanks to the rise in generative ai. the company announced new developments to meet growing demand in it ls release yesterd. joining us now is andy power. mr. power, let's get yesterday's report out of the way. i would say that most of the people talking about it called it mix. the guidance was a little bit below consensus estimates. can you explain why?
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>> thanks, tyler and diana. great to see you both again. so we just came off of our fourth quarter earnings call. the day prior, there was a run-up on no news in our stock, and obviously, we're not love bring we are today. but i think if you read through many of those sales reports, those folks are seeing the bigger picture here of a reacceleration of growth. we capped off 2023 with record 500 new customers to our pla platform. the total is 5,000 customers. we increased our spend in terms of new development projects. we have record pricing, and our value proposition is resonating. we did a lot of work last year bolstering the balance sheet, and i think time will tell and t demonstrate that. >> you think you're going to have sustained growth, but i'm
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curious as why the guidance estimates forecast were lower than some of the street expected. >> so we -- our top line guidance was about 7% revenue gr growth, normalized for asset sales we did last year. we have billions of capital in our portfolio, allowing us to position ourselves for investments. we lost essentially or evened up, selling shares in those assets. that takes a toll, and now i think we have a smoother path of growth for years to come. >> di? >> andy, we talked last summer about how higher inflation was having an affect on deals, on property valuation, on new development. you said you expected to see rates come down. now we're getting these hotter than expected inflation reports
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just in this month. does that concern you going forward, especially when you have new deals? you have a $7 billion deal with blackstone to develop new properties. >> i would say we're very fortunate to be in a sector where the supply/demand balance has been moving in our favor for some time, and we have been able to employ capital at higher and higher rois. that's in addition to what we announced at the end of last year, partnering with blackstone. so inflation is certainly in our build cost, but the demand, with now artificial intelligence, is well outpacing supply and allowing us to deploy capital at higher attractive rois. >> compare today --
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>> you talk about ai -- >> i'm sorry, diana. >> i'm sorry. i just wanted to follow up on ai. you are the land lord for ai, as it is. do you see any of that demand flattening from ai, or do you think the growth trajectory is still as strong as you saw it in the past year? >> listen, we've been able to confront this for many, many years. we one of the first -- just last year, we saw applications for manufacturing, enterprise, private ai. i can tell you, 2024 that demand trend is accelerating when it comes to ai. here digital, we're well positioned to serve it, large capacity blocks around the world, in 50 plus metropolitan areas. so i don't see any flattening in
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ai demand as it relates to the data center industry. >> two questions. is ai a bigger thing than cloud was or is? >> so ai is a lot similar to cloud but a little different. it's much larger out of the gates and moving much faster than cloud ever did. we're talking 100 giga watt type of deployments from some customers, moving rapidly. another difference it's pushing the power densities. digital, that's our heritage. we've been able to have diversity of infrastructure to meet the ai demand. but it all comes back to the data. we're using these large language model training, we'll go back to where the data should stay. again, the words of diana being the home, we like that word home versus land lord, to ai and data is what dim gital realty is abo.
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>> you talked about gigawatts. are you able to source all the power you need to fuel these data centers, or is that a problem? >> that's an industry wide problem. whether it's power generation, power transmission, renewable services, supply chain elements. i think that is certainly something that the industry is grappling with. we're very fortunate we've been in business for 20 plus years now. we have large capacity blocks next to the dulles airport, in frankfurt, paris, seoul, around the world. we have customers that want to expand and grow. so it's certainly a headwind for the industry, but something our value proposition to those customers really shines. >> andrew, thank you very much. appreciate it, guys. fico is another company leveraging ai in scores and software. fico builds the algorithms at
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credit bureaus to determine credit scores and the software the banks use for consumer products. joining us is ceo of fico. mr. lansing, welcome. good to have you with us. >> hi, tyler. let's hope that people can hear better than i did. >> how is ai changing what you do? >> well, you know, we've been at it for many years. we use machine learning and other forms of ai in some of our products. but not all of our products. you know, it's because we serve financial institutions, heavily regulated by fair lending lawing and regulations. so there's limits on where and when you can use ai. where it's most useful is in our fraud business, where we are the largest player in credit card fraud detection. so we've been using it there for a long time.
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on the underwriting side, i would say it's going to take longer before ai works its way in, because we have -- you know, we just have some challenges there -- >> why is that? why is it more challenging? that's interesting. >> you know, the regulators who are focused on lending, they want to make sure that they understand how the models work, make sure there's not a lot of bias, make sure that people aren't being discriminated against in the algorithms. so there's a lot of rules about transparency and objectivity and the science around it. so we -- obviously we complied with those rules to make sure that our banking customers are in compliance. there are some interesting opportunities. we wind up using -- we use generative ai for synthetic data, so that helps us in building things. we have applied this to ai, and
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what that lets you do, because of the block chain and the ability to understand where and when and how things occurred in this ledger, we can go back and understand what's going on. so as we build our models, we leverage block chain to do it. >> so i was interested, and i want you to correct me if i'm wrong here about how your business works. in other words, you're the provider of the analytical software to a transunion or equifax, and to other people in the credit world. and in terms of your business where you're doing credit card or loan security, i assume it's the same thing. you're not -- you're selling analytics or software to those people who are touching the consumers, right? in other words, you're -- >> that is exactly it. >> got it. >> we're in the analytics business, not the data business. so what happens is, if a lender
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wants to understand whether a consumer is likely to repay a loan, they'll pull the credit file and ask for a fico score. what the fico score does is it measures the propensity of a consumer to repay debt. that's built on top of the credit card payment data housed at the credit bureaus. and if there was a single thing that you look at in the future, you look have you paid me back in the past? and that's the credit bureau, the credit files. we're always looking for additional data that has some predictive value that can improve the decision. that's where our software comes in. it can ingest much more than the data at the credit bureau. on the basis of all that, and applying a lot of fancy analytics, we get to a more sophisticated decision. but both are scores and software
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are aimed at valuing the credit consumer. >> let me ask you a dumb-ass question. if i wanted to boost my credit score quickly, what is the best thing i can do to do that, make sure i pay my cards on time? is it to not carry seven cards but maybe two? what is it that would boost my score the most and quickest? >> i would prefer to use our website where we have a lot of education contempt to boost your scores. just a couple of things for the people who aren't going to go there, yeah, exactly. pay your bills on time. that's one of them. you want to not max out your cards, don't overdraw. don't ask for too much credit at once, because that's a signal you're desperate. and there are a handful of other things. >> well, if i knew my score, i'd tell you right now and say i'll
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show you mine if you show me yours. thanks for being with us, will. >> my pleasure. coming up, star bucks is going to save a billion dollars with more efficient stores. improvements coming and how ba reesas contributed to those changes, that's next.
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starbucks unveiling a new store model in washington, d.c. today. kate romgers joins us with the details. hey, kate. >> hey, tyler. the company introducing today its inclusive stores framework, opening a first location, as you said, in washington, d.c., with some key upgrades, including a new point of sales system that will have voiceassist, screen, as well as support for language diversity. customer order board also give visual updates, and power operated doors that will be easier to activate from different heights and angles. all newly built and renovated starbucks stores in the u.s. will incorporate this framework in the future in some capacity, as the company looks to grow 4%, with 16,000 licensed stores. north america's president says the expected roi on this is meaningful.
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>> i'm thinking about it, as something that's going to, you know, help us in terms of customer connection. it's going to help us in avoiding partner engagement. so we're optimistic we're going to get a great return on it. >> i asked does this mean you're moving away from drive-through, which has been successful? she says not at all. some of these upgrades like sound control will help baristas. store conditions were also a sticking point for some of the workers who have organized at starbucks over the last few years. i mentioned alsocdonald's teste fronts, which focuses on snacks and drinks. so everyone's trying to figure out what the customer wants and keep workers. >> so they plan to do this in new or renovated stores.
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any idea what it would cost to do this, not system wide necessarily but the investment required h >> it's not a material investment. it's not materially more expensive than it would be to rebuild or remodel a store, it's just better design. this will be a better return on they also believe customers will be happier. they are competing so hotly right now for all of these consumer dollars. they want to make sure customers are happy where they are spending. i think all of these upgrades we'll see across the sector are really key. >> interesting. thank you very much. coming, up headsets, hybrid, high and casinos. we're going around the world for -- that is up next.
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>> welcome back everybody. it is friday, it is three buys and a bail. since it's a long weekend, it means we're traveling, we're looking at india, japan, macau and china. and here with our trades, stephanie link. hightower adviser chief excess investment strategist and cnbc contributor. hi, how are you, good to see you. >> i'm good, how are you? >> i'm great. let's go with apple. tech giant eyeing india as its next big market. and the source of a big percentage of self owns. the country's finance ministry says it will be the third largest economy in the world within three years.
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are you buying apple here stuff? >> i actually am, tyler. i was underway -- all of last year. they were down 8% from its highs. trading at 28 times forward estimates, relative to its historical average of 36 times. i think it's attractive. we had a good quarter from the company, earnings of 16%, even up 12, free cash flow of 26. they have a march quarter guide down out of the way. i think the setup is pretty good into w w d c, their big event. where i think they will announce a.i. initiatives. possibly for the iphone 16 which would be a positive for asp. so i like the story here. >> let's move on, second to a company that has spent a lot of time investing in hybrid automobiles. that is toyota motor. it is down slightly today. japanese carmaker, up more than 20% this year so far, as it's gamble on hybrid seems to be paying off. investors are watching closely
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though as the japanese economy slips into recession. do you think toyota can weather the downturn, stephanie? >> i do. i do. but i would buy this on pullback, tyler. but i do like, it are the best- selling automobile company in 2023. the hybrid strategy, as you've mentioned, is going gangbusters. it rose 63% last year, that's 33% of their total revenues. they have a new product cycle, story for 2024, in terms of new cars, just refreshes, special additions, that sort of thing. and it's cheap, ten times earnings. >> the refresh prius is a really good-looking car. i saw one on the road today. anyhow, the final bye is las vegas sands. already up more than 28% this year. performance in macau, continuing to impress as high networks purse consumers show no signs of slowing. your take on sands? >> i like las vegas sands. this past year is down 1%, it hasn't done anything.
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i do think it's a play on macau, it's 63% of each paw. -- you're making two big bets on those regions. and i do think we're starting to see visitation in decreasing in macau, as well as singapore. this company is going from vip revenues, that being the big part of their business, to premium mass and mass. they're saying nice momentum, sequentially in the upper single, lower double digits, sequentially. we're also seeing operating margins expand as well. i like, it five billion in cash, two billion dollar buyback, i like it a lot. >> las vegas sands has no las vegas, right? or does it? >> that's right. that's right, now it's all macau. -- >> viva las vegas said travis kelsey. no sir. let's go to bail, which would be nike stephanie, you down more than 5% to start the year. more than 1500 job cuts in a broad restructuring effort in the wake of weak demand. especially in its huge china market.
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oppenheimer downgrading the stock, no quick fix, stephanie do you agree with that? >> i absolutely do. i've owned this in the past, but they've lost their way. numbers have been coming down. china is a problem. we just talked about services being really strong in china. good, not so much. we have problems in the e and ea, and also i think north america is actually getting, it's like fatigue. they underinvested during covid, and now they have to reinvest. what are you gonna pay on multiple bases for reinvestment stories. as a result, you're gonna see lower earnings to lower revenues. i think 29 times is too rich, i will bail. >> a little high. you would wait and see on this one, clearly on nike. my son's favorite stop by the way. he loves the close. whatever. anyhow stuff, thank you so much, great to see you. stephanie of hightower visors. great to have you with us here on the exchange, power lunch is coming up. leslie is getting read ll join her on the other side of this quick break.
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, >> welcome to power lunch. this is leslie picker, i am tyler mathisen. glad you could be with us, inflation situation. this is producer price index, coming in otter than expected compared to last month and last year. market seem to be taking this upside of pressure in stride. leslie. >> double inflation could lead the feds to relieve rates higher for longer. borrowing cost

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