a lot of action. >> so fun. >> one to congratulate our line producer joe t of the birth of his son. we're thrilled to add this adorable little fella to our power lunch family. there he, is congratulations to joe. it's all good, we are happy. thanks for watching power lunch. good to be with, you leslie. thanks for coming. closing bell right now. welcome to closing bell, i'm mike santoli in first got wapner. this make or break hour begins with a pretty unflappable our. coming off the sell-off but wavering in the last hour. it does s&p 500 finn reach of another record high. any positive close on it would be a new record. and weekly gain out of the past 16. this despite higher than expected ppe and placing this morning. upside surprise to cpi on tuesday, soft retail sales report for january along the way. as well as some uncharacteristic weakness in the magnificent 7 and nasdaq-

100. it's like 100 down almost 1% on the week to date basis. but industrials, health care grabbing the baton of leadership for the week. small blue chips such as berkshire hathaway, walmart rushing to all-time highs. this takes us to our top of the take. what to make of the market that has been so far tough to rattle, even with the bumpy stretcher economic data and some signs of froth surfacing and it's more speculative corners. let's have camera, doesn't you reach well officer and courtney garcia, he invented the senior wealth advisor. courtney also a cnbc contributor. welcome to you both. cameron, coming into this week, it was possible to say we had hit a lot of levels that said, mission accomplished. 5000 on the s&p, 18,000 nasdaq- 100. bitcoin crossed above 50. we're looking for an excuse to have a pullback but many would've said and i would've said we've got one day at 1.3% on that cpi number and we

picked it up. it's a market ignoring something or does it show underlying strength? what's your read on that? >> i think there is very strong momentum in this market and there is still room for positioning to get more long. you're still in about that 85th percentile of positioning according to the deutsche bank consolidated positioning report. which just says momentum can keep chugging along until you reach that point where you're at an extreme. the other important point is that it has not been about growth. they've not been growth fears that have been percolating. which just means that any kind of corrections seemed short and shallow and more to do with expectations. really doesn't have the teeth in it that you'd expect to see in the pullback. >> there is no doubt we've had enough months of pretty resilient economic numbers to suggest that we are not going to panic out when you have a slightly soft retail sales report. which is what we had there. i guess the question to, is has a market answer some of the questions that people had for

it? meaning, i mentioned the magnificent 7 down this week. alphabet is down five plus percent of the week. adobe has been tough. you had nvidia hanging in there, semi kept doing fine. but the average stock has done better of the last week. the question is, it's another head fake? does it show that we have something underlying here? or, again is it noise? >> i think really investors have been rushing to the magnificent 7. everyone thought this rally was going to broaden out and this year that hasn't come to fruition but weeks like this week are showing it may actually happen. there's still so much money on the sidelines. now over six joined all earn cash right now that's eventually going to make its way back to the market because what is happening right now is, even though maybe with the cpi and ppi, number inflation isn't going to come down as fast as people thought, it still is likely to come down later this year and so that money is going to come out of there and go into some of those other sectors. what's happening is the magnificent 7 are extremely expensive. he put it in perspective how congregated these are getting, those seven stocks are now bigger than the entire european

stock market. microsoft is bigger than the entire energy sector. he flourishing to those things with the cash coming off the sidelines of got to come from some of these other areas. if you want to own magnificent 7 but haven't done anything, you're already overweight there. >> i did see in bank of america's weekly tracking a flow service and maybe 18 billion coming out of cash. a small amount, you've had some flow. the only real category of etf category influence has been in tech. i guess that's where the chase is happening. you did mention fed expectations are the one thing that has really been moving around. this is been a bit of a test case because there is a common line at the start of the year that says, market is ahead of itself, thinking six or seven rate cuts this year. turns out that's probably right. work it now in 3 to 4. he has talked about fine. let's listen to what raphael bostic of the atlanta fed today said about his stance on this and what he is expecting next.

>> we've seen a lot of progress in terms of inflation. i'm expecting that, through the course of 2024, it will be a little bumpy we. i think the trend will continue but the path all the way to 2%, i don't think we're going to get to that number immediately. these sorts of numbers, they're kind of okay and i can live with it. to me, it just says, we have to be patient. let's not get too far ahead in assuming the job is done. because i still work to do. >> this has been a very consistent message. every single fed official is on this page. i guess, has the market proven that this is acceptable? in other words, as long as the next move is lower and as long as there is no economic emergency that they're not responding to, we can win. >> the market has been charging off a tighter fed for over a year now. over the course of 2023, the fed was consistently tighter than what the market expected yet valuations continue to expand. i think the thing that we get the market to get more skittish

around the fed is if inflation truly did re-accelerate in a much more meaningful way. which means that we have to watch those prices in the pmi's. we've seen those take up recently. gasoline prices have started to move up about 7% of the last month. that starts to move in the other direction, the feds tone will move from, yeah, it's okay, we're comfortable with this too we might have to do something else. all of those cuts priced and have to get priced out and then maybe the market would wake up to that kind of risk. but that remains to be seen. >> the bond, mark it should be said, courtney, has responded to a small degree this week to the inflation upside surprises. you have the tenure, it's now about 4:30 4:29 and change. was about 4:15 to start the week. this is a parenteral we've been through the december fed meeting. who knows where the point is where it becomes less comfortable for stocks. the other way to think of it is, is a pretty value and longer term bonds as well? he saw a bit coming a couple

times around these levels. >> absolutely. but investors look at here is probably the peak we're seeing interest rates. the question is when they're coming down. but it's not a non zero chance rates are going to go up but it's close to nonzero that we can get at this point. so we have to look at an investor and say, okay, this is one of getting on bonds, especially things with your money markets at 5%, is your money better off another assets? last, year a lot of people were enticed of money markets 5%. bonds for 5.5% on average. but a lot of people missed out on the 20% of the s&p 500 last year. that's what people started to get on board with. saying, okay, if rates are only going down by, hear money markets and bonds may not be the best place to put my money and that's where you'll start to see it going elsewhere. >> the other piece of this i, guess in terms of adjusting with the fed is going to do, cameron, it's all this research at, they're not davis assignment, this slower easing cycles have been better for the stock market went faster ones. and first, well there aren't

that many of any kind of cycle that we can generalize here. but in other, words if the fed is not rushing to slash rates, it usually means the economy is like in things are under control, it is a more orderly pattern. that b 1995, by the way. >> here's the other interesting thing. even in that 1985 scenario there is no recession, other scenarios like, that like 98 and 2019, the fed has never cut rates with pm isaac celebrating. every time the fedcap, rates even when they're doing it in an orderly manner, they're doing it with growth fears. many pianos are coming down. if you must continue to re- accelerate, let's say the fed cuts in may or june, it be the first time in modern history that they would be doing that. >> i would guess that would not be the first pattern broken on the cycle. you absolutely, right i understand it. this is all kind of new territory. but i'm guessing, i think there is stuff for the s&p's been down 25%. fed never kept hiking with something like that.

we didn't. we'll see if we have to reconcile those things pretty soon. let's bring in keith lerner of truest wealth into the conversation. good to see you. what's your assessment of how the market has kind of handled things this week? i guess even with, all do you think that we're going to see some of that seasonal weakness? we have a little more fortitude under the market? >> great to be with you, mike and courtney and cameron. indifference to taylor, swift the market is shaken it off this week in china lot of resilience. it one day gut check, one day so far, still not above that high. that something he off of next week when we move into the new week after this on holiday. but a, general credit markets are remaining pretty well behaved. what's notable, is below the surface, using a bit more risk with a broad, mark it as you mentioned earlier. so performing small, caps outperforming the average stock index. just made almost a two-year

high. industrial and all time high. from our, perspective the market is rightly focused in on that growth that still relatively firm. with the conversation you will, had we've been saying our motto here the last month has been that we think it's better for the economy to remain strong with less recruits and more rate cuts. because what weaker economy. you all know this to. 2001 and 2000, eight we cut rates very aggressively. don't stop to stop working from going down or save the economy. all in all, i think the market, you can say, has had a good resilience this week. >> if we can assume, that it's a big assumption but assume that the economy chugs along. we are tracking around maybe a 2% real growth rate in the first quarter so far. only halfway over. nonetheless, if you assume the economy hangs in there as an it now seems to be the case, does that mean that we can kind of grow into full value and that there's not much in the way of the stock market? are we going to go looking for something else to be concerned

about? >> what is looking for something to be concerned about. obviously, valuations are, rich they've been rich. valuations in a short term basis don't tend to mean a lot. what is important and what is been holding this market up is there a forward earning estimates that every week make a new high. that is something we are really following. that starts to, weaken that would be a concern. but so far they are actually increasing to the upside. i think what happens is you are more likely start to move into more of a choppy period as opposed to this move up. hubby also curious with, nvidia expectations are so high. what happens there? two scenarios. three. but one of them is, even if the numbers are good, what does tech do? we do see some more retain because of how high expectations are? the other parts of the market doing well? right, now the way we are playing this is we still like large, cap still overweight with tech but we are underway with small caps and mid caps,

we'd be leaning into those areas right now. >> frenzy of activity and expectation around nvidia, you almost can't overstate it. then you have the phenomenon that has been super micro. people have been commenting on. this meet high this morning of $1,077. now at 807. that this 25% drop from the morning high. this is where the fever is right now. i know you may notice to bit of a talking about how's 1.8% weighed in the russell 2000. we're celebrating but the russell 2000 is playing along with upside this week. it's not just about cyclical stocks and financials performing. have you read that in terms of the markets sentiment profile? and all this other animal spirits side of things? >> it is clearly a clamoring for risk and we can see that in the iwm, russell 2000 atm call option volume, has really started to take up. people effectively saying, i want some exposure to the upsides and juiced up exposure

to the upside. the russell 2000 has been holding up relatively well this one's 50 moving average. interacting with a really well. even with higher yields. which gets a retention. of course, how much can you read into that given that a lot of it has been s m c i? talked about that this, morning 70% of the gain year to date. maybe deserves a little bit of doubt. >> i would hesitate, this happens with the magnificent 7 to. saying, what percentage of a net change is attributable to one or a few stocks? all those other stocks are not going to zero. they got a indexed where it is to. it's been unusual in terms of that profile. crypto relayed stocks, all that stuff. in that environment, courtney, do you read that current or do you say, there are things being left behind that we would rather participate in. >> you think it's a little bit of both. i don't think you want to get out of the magnificent 7 but they are just getting disproportionately more expensive to the markets. i do think you want to add more into things like your small, caps things like a real estate,

some of your under performing sectors. especially for houston to come down, this will likely outperform. one of the things that is not an instant gratification. i've been saying that what happened earlier in the, air is not happening. as an investor, you need to make sure you're well positioned because things can shifted when they shift it's very quick. you need to -- >> i know you've been emphasizing quality and it has worked. quality, free cash, flow good balance sheets has been the way to perform for a while. i just wonder if that'll still be the case if you start to feel as a thread cutting, the economic cycle has longer to, run other stuff might actually have its day. >> in quality should be the core of a portfolio for the long run. because what we find is, yes, there are periods where low quality will outperform times like 2020. 2021. however, it is a femoral out performance. you see big rallies up and then you give it all back. for a long term investors that

attack sensitive, instead of trying to time everything to trade in and out, compounding from cycles. to, point having some exposure in the periphery of with -- strong growth in a friendly fed would be supported. the question that we're asking is, can you really get much lower yields and much friendlier fed if growth is really that strong? >> keith, quick last word in terms of parts of the market that you still think are under exploited. that you feel as if they might actually be discovered here. >> still overweight but there's going to be a cooling period there. in the shorter term basis, i like financials having that commercial real estate concern a couple weeks ago. they got oversold on a bounced. i think that's positive. what is surprising about financial is, off the october low, they're up about the cinematheque. the price per month likely has further to go in an environment where the economy stay somewhat

steady and interest rates stay somewhat elevated as well. i think that's an interesting area. one area that we are also keeping an eye on is more neutral, health care has done a lot better in our overall work. obviously a bifurcated area but one that is starting to improve that we are keeping an eye on. >> yeah, for sure. that have been early theme in 2024. the strength in health care. cameron, courtney, keith, appreciated. thanks very much for the conversation today. send it over to kristina partsinevelos for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. >> thanks, mike, high. let's talk about shares of nike right now because they're falling 2% with the news they need to cut 2% of its workforce are roughly 1500 employees. this is part of a broader restructuring. the sneaker giant is also faced with a slowdown and that is what is driving a lot of this consumer spending. fuse for capital -- running as well as the jordan brand. first right of layoffs actually begin this week. dropbox faced with several

analyst downgrades from bank of america to jpmorgan today after posting and it looked that fell short of estimates. bank of america arguing that drop boxes both uses has, quote, played out. as total paying users are actually declining. drop box of ceo was on the we call that there are more cautious with a spending in very pretty sensitive right now. man, drop boxes dropping. 24% right now. >> christina, thanks very much. we're just getting started here. up next, trouble in the charts? top technician is raising the red flag on a key market risk that he is seeing right now. those details after the break. rely from the new york stock exchange, you're watching closing bell on cnbc. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

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stop solution, just a bit of steam. here at the p 500 down just more than a quarter of a percent chance we had to close. after yet another hot inflation

reports this morning at what has been a choppy week for stocks. our next guest sees rising odds of a potential correction brewing in the charts. joining us now is john columbus, chief technical market strategist at macro risk advisers. it's good to talk to you. start off by talking about how this market is actually pretty tough in the face of some excuses to go down. mark it kind of recovered that tuesday drop. but i guess we haven't really clear to the old high. and we bumping up against the ceiling? what's your read on it. >> great to be on, mike. the market is setting itself up for a trading range environment. when i go through all the different indicators, i think the markets going to be stalling out approximately around 5100. if you take them and put it on the, chart 5100 days or so will be the ceiling. downside risk to about 4700. maybe 46 to the downside. i think we are entering into a bit of a training range environment. >> would be the same profile in

terms of what led the pullback? i know you would want to emphasize the relatively strong parts of the market probably. does that mean right now and is at least been the strings of some broadening out away from the mega cap growth area? >> it's a fair point. we determine where that we are operating two different types of markets. the s&p 500 and the market of stocks. s&p 500 being driven by the mag 7. frothy for sure. needs to, consolidate pretty hot out there right now. typical of those stocks. the decline, i would assume, would have to come from some of those names. but as i have a paradigm, shifted i can't imagine anything more than just a mere correction or pullback. two, like i, said at the 4700 and maybe 4600 level. given that. but beneath the surface, i'm telling, you things aren't as bad as i think most people are making it out to sea. >> you mean that the market hasn't been as narrow as people have portrayed? or what do you mean by that?

>> absolutely. what distinction we need to, make particularly those who follow the charts like i do, is that the momentum of breadth has slowed. the percentage of stocks above moving averages, starts at new highs. those have declined over recent weeks. but the trend of breadth remains positive. take like the rsp equal weighted s&p 500. that just broke out ahead of a four week or five retreating range yesterday. that looks pretty healthy to me and even small caps, really trying to break it down and he couldn't. one way i've been framing it with clients that and monterrey is this. can't breath take a breather to? that is essentially what has been going on. a lot of good technical goodwill at the end of last year and i don't think we've negated that quite yet. >> it's interesting. definitely in the camp of, saying just because you can tabulate how much of the upside has come up from a few stocks, it doesn't mean the rest of the stocks have been poor or losing the benefit of the doubt

necessarily. i remember at some point along the way in high school they allowed you to have more than a four gpa. the other stocks were getting the plus is even if they weren't the best students. i guess the question, is within the market, what looks interesting at this point in terms of emerging leadership or things to stay away from? >> fair point, right? we already know what's, working focused on the shiny objects, which is the mag 7. what is improving? energy has caught my eye as of late. take a look at wti. it's like a nice little base formation forming there. you get wti above 80 and then the rest of the energy is going to follow. the refiners have been great but the rest of energy could benefit from that. i think it's a good source of chart diversification in portfolios to start sniffing around the energy sector. the other part i've been focusing on has been within health care. not just lilly that looks, good the biotech's and some of the other farmers. take a look at the health care etf that just broke additive in 18 months training range.

that project about 20% higher on the charts. a lot of good interesting names there. that's where i think some of the fresher money could be. we can energy, deputize an energy has oil stabilizes and then health care looks pretty decent. >> in terms of i guess just a big, picture you framed out maybe we are kind of putting in the upper end of a trading range. official pullback to 4700, let's, say that's like 8%. they are bounce from the highs. not, terrible those types of questions tend to happen most years. is that just kind of a stop along the way? where are we in the longer cycle? you do hear some folks assuming that we are kind of in the latter innings, it is stretching valuations. on the other, hand it was only a month ago that we brought to a new high that had previously been said two years earlier. it's not as if we really been running away to the upside for that long. >> a fantastic question, i wrestled with it as well. talk to quite a try to thread that needle a little bit. people used to think about, it yes, there's some technical red flags and say hey, look, listen, we're ready to fall

into a secular bear market given that stretch the markets have been since the 09 low. i'm not in that camp. one reason why i'm not in that, camp and i appreciate the a.i. craze and all that. that transformative technology has led every ball mercury for the last hundred years. number, two i had a front seat few of the tech bubble and you did to. i would say the wall of worry is incredibly higher now than it was then. i just think this is par for the course. a.i. is doing its thing but ottawa did their thing in the twenties and roads in the 1800s. this is how things operate over the long run. >> i'm with you on that for sure. it seems as if the dominance of the mag 7 heads made people reluctant to trust the market, which kind of re-built the wall of worry. yes the warnings that you may never get anywhere close to 99 anytime soon. so, don't pick on it. john, great to talk to, you appreciate the, time have a

good weekend. up next, your retail rundown. walmart prepared to report results next week, we'll speak to the analyst with the highest price target on the street for what he is watching ahead of the frame. closing bell will be right back. -- this type of analysis is done to manage equal pay for equal work. celebrating black heritage, i am sharon evers and. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back. walmart shares moving, higher hitting record highs today. i have earnings out tuesday morning. defensive stocks are just getting started. manager director of piper sandler has a history price target of $210 on walmart. thanks for joining. i guess the question, first of all, perhaps, what type of retail environment has walmart been operating in? what would you most be looking for in the report on tuesday >> certainly the consumer has been very, challenge inflation was a significant challenge for the consumer 23. but we are starting to look at, is as inflation begins to dissipate, does a consumer shift away from some of these necessities aggressors instead of buying some of what they call general merchandise? higher margin goods, maybe apparel, toys. this is been pretty weak 3:23.

here in commentary on that would be pretty interesting. >> if that were to happen, what it iminish will merge perceived advantage here? it seems like that was what was wearing on the lakes of target and walmart. being better positioned and everyday essentials was the net beneficiary there. >> i think clearly what martin has done a great job with every day essentials and groceries. but one of the stories it hasn't been told it is how much better walmart has gotten that things like apparel. how much they've gotten in toys and baby. as a consumer starts to rotate back to, that as a more disposable dollars, walmart can benefit from that as well. >> what is your sense of investor attitudes and positioning towards walmart? as you talk to, clients is it really just being owned as, look, the quality name in the group? obviously this is the time when smaller players are having a harder time. or is there specific strategic

issues that people like about what is going on at the company right now? >> i think a couple things. first, it is viewed as kind of a safer way to play the consumer given its strong focus on things like groceries. but what has been interesting is that walmart last, year particular this idea of earning faster than revenue. if this dynamic of walmart, seemingly getting more disciplined on cost and really focusing on a growing even margin. which could be really interesting. the other piece, of it which the inextricable weeks, ago this idea of opening 152 superstores and re-modeling more stores. walmart, which has been very reliant on this is because of inflation we have a new story to tell as they start opening new stores. >> in terms of the 2:10 dollar price, target what builds into that in terms of where it would be valued and how that compares to where it is treated in the past? >> it's one of 50 times even to give it multiple. what does it do that is this

idea that walmart is really adding some strength behind what we view as more annuity businesses. but look at this advertising business, which is very profitable, sticky. walmart club subscriber base. seeing stronger is olds in sam's. certainly will make is a retailer, but when you add some of these components, that are probably less volatile overtime. that helps give them a stronger valuation than they seen in the past. >> along those lines, there were reports this week that it is with the video maker. this interest, the advertising sales as a part of that? >> i certainly don't have insight. -- it is a corporate component of that. we see them use in store data, other types of data. certainly the closer they get

to the consumer, understanding what they're watching it, doing but make them a more valuable platform for advertisers going forward. >> is walmart postured in terms of pricing at this point? they've been a bit of a bellwether in their commentary about the ability to push price or pull back in the last couple quarters specifically. >> a couple of things. they are seeing pockets of deflation into disinflation with history in particular. you're starting to see more of what they call a rollback. where they will have a onetime change in price when some cases learn prices. he started to see that seep in at the store. general merchandise side, generally deflation there as well. starting to moderate. relative to, pisa pricing gaps remain stronger than ever. meeting some price caps versus peters and this inflationary pushes starting to really -- >> i suppose on the labor expensive things, is that networking to their vantage?

there is a while that it seemed like a pressure point. >> i do know if it's working to their advantage but the upper pressure has starting to abate. they announced that are manages to stop it. relatively small number of people relative to the sides of the employee base. certainly wages are feeling some pressure but the upper pressure that we've seen in the past 24 months is beginning to a beat. he had a piece in the longer term is that walmart is not a more automation. adding more capabilities around digital. certainly, that will help meant the cost curve over the medium term. >> great to speak with you, today appreciate the time. those numbers come through on tuesday for walmart. up, next tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. christina standing by with those. >> we're seeing a new record for one ship maker and strong outlook in the advertising industry that is driving one name higher. i will of course explain those details right after the short break.

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got about 19 and a half minutes to the closing bell. s&p 500 in about a third of a percent, just shy of a record.

let's go to kristina for the stock to watch. >> after two years of dealing with customer inventory digestion, chip makers are finally seeing return to growth. applied materials, the latest and largest u.s. semi cap crater provided upbeat guidance because of increases. when in cloud capex. higher spending on manufacturing hubs, think of the chips act, a major driver here in the u.s.. and normalization of memory prices and inventory levels. that's why shares are up almost 7% right now. advertising software from trade desk also posting strong revenue, guidance saying the connective tv, market which really means a tv that's integrated with the internet, your phones, photos on your phone, et cetera. that market is expected to grow in 2024 and should be a driver, of course, for advertising. trade desk also approved more share buybacks. definitely helping the stock right now up almost 17%. scott -- mike, sorry. so used to saying, that i apologize.

>> understood. >> you're great, though. >> i appreciate it, have a great weekend, not going to call you any funny names or anything like that. next, the health of housing. new data shedding light on the sector. we'll bring you all the details on how it could impact housing stocks in the months ahead. plus, shares of roku sinking. we'll hear with thcoans e mpy' ceo says might be their biggest challenge yet. that's coming up closing but we'll be right back. bacon and eggs 25/7. you're darn right. solar stocks are u% with the additional hour in the day. [ clocks ticking ] i'm ruined. with the extra hour i'm thinking companywide power nap. let's put it to a vote. [ all snoring ] this is going to wreak havoc on overtime approvals. anything can change the world of work. from hr to payroll, adp designs forward-thinking solutions to take on the next anything.

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the s&p 500 is down not quite half a percentage. also down for the week. closed last week at 50 26 and this will be his first down week in the last six. nasdaq down three quarters of 1%. the russell 2000 getting back some of it strong gains from the week, down 1.2%. last call for nominations for cnbc's 12th annual disruptor 50 list of private venture backed companies. to learn, more risk and the q r code under a screen or go to cnbc.com slash disrupters. up next, wells fargo's scott randy here to wrap up the final moments of what has been a pretty wild week for stocks. how he is not navigating the volatility. that in much, more when we take you inside the market zone.

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♪ ♪ ♪ >> we are now in the closing bell market zone. we are here to break down crucial omen sets we close out a wild week for stocks. plus, diana olick off of the jump in mortgage rates and the big drop in housing last month. and roku can close out its worst day ever. scott, in terms of the market here, you know, we are losing a little bit of altitude. although we are still hanging in okay. the s&p is up almost 5%, probably not many thought we would be their six days into the year, even though we have reduced the amount of fed, even though the market is position for it right now. what does it tell you and what is the risk reward look like to you? >> i think the risk reward is not good right here. we certainly wouldn't go out and buy the s&p 500 but when you look at cbi, ppi, those were

nasty numbers if you are worried about inflation, or the federal reserve. and the market done really nothing but keep grinding higher for the most part. for us, we don't want to go out there and by the s&p 500, we don't want to go out there and by the russell 500, that is for sure. i think there's a few things under the hood that you can do. >> was it really nasty numbers coming out of the ppi and the cpi? obviously more that she wanted to see and there seems to be at least a hesitation in this inflation trend. but was it 2% year over year in the ppi? >> you can complain a lot about that. you are right. the trend in inflation is down. it is not going to move down in a linear fashion. there is going to be a few stumbles along the way. this is kind of a stall here but certainly we have confidence and i think that the market has a lot of confidence that inflation is going to keep crawling lower. that is why after a week like we have had, really, the s&p 500

will close pretty close to the all-time record high. i think the market is pretty comfortable with that. a lot of people would've said that the market is very married to six, seven interest rate cuts out of the fed. we are going to see three, really i think when the market suggests that it might digested a little bit better than we would've anticipated because i think that the market is going to be pretty comfortable with cuts this year. >> the market was flirting with six or seven, not married to. it at least it looks like that at this point. of the s&p 500 does not look like it is at a great entry point right here for you when the russell 200 which has started to come around is also not, where would it be? >> we are taking these sectors that have really outperformed, and if you look at the calendar year 23, it was tech, communication services, that just dramatically outperform the other eight sectors.

and of course, consumer discretionary has coughed up some ground here this ear. what we are doing is trimming from, there are so we are taking , if our clients have been following our advice, all three of those sectors were recommending that the trim back tech to a neutral communication services and we want to take consumer discretionary to an underweight. then we are taking those funds and we are looking at some sectors that have not outperformed that we think will do well over the coming year. so industrials and health care. materials, energy, we made a swap with energy and financials. financials ran a little too far, too fast. we backed off of that, we ended up buying energy. prices are going to go much below $70. so those are the things that we have been doing. but as i said, we've been avoiding going out there and buying the s&p 500. >> sure, i should mention we back out a little bit further. here is some p is down about a

half a person and it is an expiration, monthly expiration, here we are at row number 500. really quick, it seems like if you are not necessarily saying the economy is really going to struggle here, or are you? >> i think probably we are going to see a couple of quarters, maybe the second or third quarter where you have one hand right around one in terms of the gdp. it looks like the first quarter is coming in okay so we are definitely expecting a slowdown when you and i talked last year, this time last year. we thought there was a pretty high probability of a recession and the probability certainly is not zero. but it is a lot lower than it was six or nine months to go. so we expect a slowdown, we expect he consumer to pull back here. we think that the fed, as i said we will only get three cuts out of them this year. i think that the consumer spending, and higher unemployment, that is going to

take a little wind out of the economy. it's not going to be a disaster but it is going to be a slowdown that is noticeable. >> all, right we will be on the lookout for it. we appreciate it. a little bit of a move in mortgage rates that you can take a look at. >> a little bit of a big move on mortgage rates. the average jumped this morning to 7.1 4%. according to mortgage news daily. that is after the price index came in high. that is the highest mortgage rate in two months. then we have the read on residential construction. down nearly 15% from december. multi family was the main driver, down 36% month to month. apartment developers are pulling back because there's so many new units already coming on the market this year. single family was also down much more than expected, that was surprising at least to me given the strong you home sales that we saw in december. that is big names like now

offering around two to 3% on the day. interesting we'll starts were way down, single family building permits which are an indicator of future construction actually rose 1.6% month to month. we are up 36% from january of last year so builder still see a runway ahead given what little existing home supply there is on the market. >> i hate to reach for the easy excuse, are people talking about whether impacting a single family unit at this point? what else are we thinking about at this point? it seems as if you had a lot of the ingredients there to have a rebound. >> you always get the weather excuse, in january, but these numbers are seen seasonally adjusted. guess what happens in january? it is cold when it snows a lot. i don't really buy into the weather picture. i think that this is just more concern about interest rates rising. i will know that builder sentiment has been rising for three straight months up again in february, even though rates pop back up they are seeing more

demand in their show rooms. the question is does it translate into signed contracts? >> we got you, we will look to see if that is a point down the road. thank you very much. julia roku, rough day, very heavy volume as well in that stop. >> that is, right bigger loss than expected, roku shares are plummeting about 23%. this is despite better than expected revenue and better than expected active accounts. the ceo is addressing lower than anticipated average revenue per user. and telling me that the pull back on spending marketing streaming apps will continue. >> then there is a business called media and entertainment which is where we focus on helping media companies promote their services on our platform. it is something we are really good at. it is a strong business for us, but it has been challenging pressure for the last four quarters. it will probably continue to be pressure for the rest of this year.

>> to say the ad businesses rebounding in a new sport streaming joint venture, the one coming from warner brother's discovery would be a win. investors are concerned about these warnings about micro economic uncertainty. mike? >> it is very interesting to hear, we will talk about the factor that basically they are a key way that other streaming services promote themselves. i guess if you are talking about a leaner industry and investment from that area, that could be a lasting struggle. >> they really benefit one their new asset launched. and they market themselves on roku trying to get people to download to them, tusk subscribe to them, but they also generate revenue from advertising. the fact that that business is rebounding and not balancing out in the investors one with the stop about 24%, not balancing out the fact that they have an ongoing contraction in that space. >> for sure, julia, thank you. have a good weekend. we will see how we are set up here into the close.

the nasdaq 100 is down about 1% and hit a high about a week ago . we are a good deal below that at this point. the s&p 500 is just above the 5000 level. down half a percent. it looks like it is going to miss a week that would've been 15 out of 16 up weeks and it is going to fall short of a record high. the small cap has actually outperformed on the week although it is giving back 1.3% a lot of focus on the bottom of the market as well after the hot number as well as the ppi. the ten year note yield is finishing around 4.2 9%. so above that florida quarter low that some folks thought might be an issue in terms of the stock market absorbing, if the market has managed to hang in there. the market has been better than it has been prior, and today you have about 40% of volume in the

new york stock exchange stop at this point. we are going to go back a month, so suggesting the one that is also in and out of the -- to see if that happens. we will bring it to overtime. >> hotter than expected inflation reports and the market today. risk was especially off but the snp holds on the 5000, that is the scorecard on wall street. but -- i am jon fortt with morgan brand. major averages snapping win streaks as tech and communication services weigh on stocks. they are the worst sectors this week coming up from the president, on whether he thinks the market is reacting to today's report. >> plus a top energy trader on whether the big sell out in natural gas is serious creating a bu