well diversified. >> ai? >> okay. >> ai. >> there you go. so we are still down, as we said -- did i get to you? go ahead. >> toyota motors. >> thanks. see you on "closing bell." ♪ ♪ thank you, scott. i'm brian sullivan. here's what is ahead. the job market is still tight, the consumer isstill strong, and even some of the most negative data points of the economy are getting less bad. what is the economy is actually getting stronger? plus, one food stock with solid earnings has been red hot. you probably never heard about it. we're talking to the ceo about what the company is not going to do this year. and he may be a vegan, but he's sinking his teeth into one

meaty name too good to ignore. but let's start off with the pride of northern california, and we might just want to go back to bed or have another holiday weekend day, dom. not looking good out there. >> thank you, though, forgiving a shoutout to my native northern california, brian. we are start thing holiday shortened trading week on a downside. we snapped five-week winning streaks friday of last week. as things stand right now, the dow industrials are down about one quarter of 1%. that's the good news, down 95 points. the s&p 500 is now 4965, off three quarters of 1% or 40 points. at the highs of the decision, we were still down roughly 12 points at the high and 50 at the low. so tilting again towards the lower end of that range so far. the nasdaq and that tech trade really taking it on the teeth, down 1.5%, 226 points for the

nasdaq shaved off, 15,548. a bright spot for certain parts of the market have to do with deal making. specifically with regard to discover financial and capital one. capital one is going to buy discover financial for $35 billion. biggest deal of the year, if it goes through. though.

there are still risks out there. for example, if you had a substantial upturn in unemployment, you could have higher interest rates that could suggest there would be worse data to come. and then the issue of normalizing student date payments and tleen delinquencie running below the average levels. those with low credit scores could find it hard to get credit. if these numbers are the top here, it's not that bad a top,

and it would mean consumers could help expand this with no pullback in spending, driven by a credit crunch. >> crunch, squeeze. not just for fruit anymore. what is the difference, steve, between a credit crunch and a credit squeeze? >> well, i thought we were going to go to the cereal category too, brian. look, a credit squeeze is something that happens normally when banks pull back and some of your lowerincome groups, they may find it difficult to get credit. they may have their limits reduced. a credit crunch, which is what we experienced in 2009, is when even good credit can't get loans and can't get credit. that's a much bigger problem. and i think what happened, brian, is people were kind of reflective in the sense of what happened last time will happen this time. no, we did have a squeeze, but right now, those numbers on

delinquencies aren't getting worse, and now we'll see if banks might loosen up a little bit in the months ahead. >> crunch versus squeeze, and we will see what happens with the banks. steve liesman, thank you very much. so your next guest believes not only is the economy avoiding a recession, but it may be getting stronger. as a result, inflation will remain a risk and rates could remain at higher longer. joining us now is the chief equity strategist, senior portfolio manager at m.a.i. capital management. chris, i want to talk about the fed. everybody was tripping over themselves to try to identify when or how many rate cuts there may be. i'm reading stuff now, there was some articles out this morning that maybe people are starting to talk about rate hikes once again because of what happened in january. where do you stand? >> you know, brian, good to be back with you. i say a couple ofthings.

first of all, it's non-consensus to say that the economy might actually be getting stronger. but it does seem to go along with the current data. we're seeing job reports that are the best in a year. the market, which is, of course, a discounting mechanism, is up over 20% since october. average hourly earnings are starting to go up again. even though real negative stuff, like the i reports have now set their highest level of the year. so the point is, there's lots of end kay fors turning upwards -- indicators turning upward. so why would the fed want to add the stimulus of rate cuts to an already accelerating economy? so that's problem number one. problem number two is deeper, which is that this kind of strength can easily lead to inflation, which isn't entirely

flushed from the system. so we have those spectors that investors thought were in the rear-view mirror. so now instead of talking about a credit squeeze or crunch, we're talking about the opposite problem, which is expansion. an expansion that may be a little too fast for the fed. >> yeah. a little too fast. listen, in any environment, and if we see a change in the rate environment, to your point, different things may do well. so let's talk about some stocks. as many viewers, at least on my show at 7:00 eastern and maybe from my post or other stuff, they know i have had a, i think, fair but many call it a critical eye towards the ev buildout. there's a lot of things people did not think about and people bought into companies that are d a lot of those companies have lost a lot of people and money. at some point, they either stopped going down, or worse, you believe that albemarle, kind

of the gasoline of the ev revolution, may have found a bottom here, because it's been brutal. >> there's a couple of reasons for that, brian. so we look for 30 years at the price action of albermarle. it's gone down about 65% in lithium declines. this time, they're down about 65% to 70% again, so that's kind of where it finds the floor. the price to sales, price to books, they're all kind of at the floor level. you know as well as i do, price earnings will disappear in a crummy market. but we're doing is buying it two to three years now. this is like buying oil three years ago when nobody wanted the stock. so i think get in now. you have been completely right on the evs. it's a terrific call. but outside the united states and china and europe, they're

still going like gang busters, and they be turn here. if you get some oil or gasoline prices going up, but we think that we're bouncing along the bottom in terms of ev negativity. >> thank you on that. i've taken my lumps on that. but as a 30-year car guy, you drive them and think it's coming, but maybe slower than we think. everybody loves eli lilly. they're all about the weight loss drugs. they're bigger than exxon and chevron and some of the companies you just mentioned. with that, you have a lot of big pharma, like a bristol-myers that are being left out there. again, you're looking for opportunity where others are not, chris. >> i think one of the benefits of age, brian, is you've seen it all before. there's been other times when sectors explode on the upside, and here the weight loss drugs have been doing terrific.

but it's been sucking capital away from all the other, you know, gigantic pharma companies that have terrific cash flow, investment grade balance sheets. and did discover a cure to covid in pfizer's case. so if you put all those together, you've got all of those good characteristics, and you can buy them at nine times earnings. you can buy them at seven times for bristol-myers. i'm not making the case these are the next growth companies, but the risk/reward here is pretty attractive, especially if you get to my first point, which is the fedmay not cut any time soon, so the market will have a little more trouble. what looks cheap and filled with cash low? and it's these guys. >> yeah. they're not sexy, at least for now. they don't have the drugs that everybody seems to want. but what they do have, to your point, chris, is nice cash flow there. johnson&johnson also. listen, they were half consumer

products, half pharma and spun that off. what is j&j? in your mind, when you look at the stock, most people think of band aids, used to be tall cum powder. not anybody. >> j&j is another cash-rich pharma company that is selling at a ten-year low valuation. i'm not going to get any awards for finding the next tesla, whether that's good or bad. but i am going to say hey, you want a good risk/reward, you want to be prepared for maybe a more choppy market in addition to owning your mag seven stocks? and we're starting to see this, brian. last week, the equal weighted s&p outperformed the regular s&p. today, the mag seven are taking it on the chip. -- chin. so you need something elsein addition to, and i'm trying to find some cheap places for folks

to go. >> mag seven is not looking very magnificent at all. so maybe we'll see a rotation for these boring companies kicking off cash. chris, i appreciate it. thank you very much. >> sure. someone who is spending big on credit cards is capital one. they're planning to buy discover financial in a $35 billion all-stock deal. if approved by regulators, and that could be a big if, it would bring together two of the largest top ten card providers in the world. so what would it? joining me now is dan. i'm sure, dan, and welcome, you have a macro view. first off, raymond james last night, great work, they came out with a note saying that it would probably be difficult to get this deal approved given the regulatory environment. >> so again, i don't cover

capital one, but i think they have a good case, because what they're doing is they're widening the offering for credit cards and debit kacards. so they can say we're leveling the playing field. so, again -- >> you don't have the same regulatory concerns? >> correct. >> the white house has said they're worried about anti-trust with amazon and others. we're just spitballing here, but this does have a chance to get through the regulatory regime? >> i think so. again, from a visa/mastercard perspective, if it's visa/ma visa/mastercard's pain, it's capital one's gain. so anything that is a drag on visa, the regulator would say this is a great thing. >> the credit card space is confusing, at least to me. and i'm guessing many of our viewers, dan, in a sense that

capital one and discover are very different than mastercard and visa. capital one is a bank that runs its processing through visa. discover, you see the stickers on the door. what would this deal create? would it create another american express? >> exactly. you hit the nail on the head. >> i read your note. >> so look, my view, it's called a closed-loop system where you have the relationship with the merchant and the consumer, so you can a, determine interchange. you can benefit more from the interchange. and also, there's about $300 billion of u.s. credit that goes through capital one. and they can -- >> $300 billion? >> about 10% of the combined

visa/mastercard credit volume. >> if you're saying closed dloo, discover is their own thing. if capital one does this deal, do they then dump processing through mastercard and/or visa and just build their own thing? >> not overnight. but over time. >> that seems to be the goal, because they're paying mastercard and visa. >> they're paying about 0.2 of a percent for every dollar that you can make. so they can steer some transactions away from visa and mastercard, creating a mini am men -- ammexx. $600 million. pretty amazing. >> amex stock is up right now,

which is surprising. >> they're going more after the networks more than amex. they're basically proving that the amex business model is a good business model. you know, the market is perceiving it as anything that hurts visa and mastercard is good for them. >> mastercard is down 3.1%, visa down 1.5%. so the market is betting -- if this deal goes through, and you think it has agood chance, that this would be a bigger threat to mastercard than to visa. >> the market is perceiving that. i think the reaction on mastercard is a little overdone, because we calculated about one point of revenue headwind. if everything goes away, it prices in the moat is getting hurt with these two stocks. so i would expect to be a coming down of the negative stocks. >> okay. there you go. listen, this isa big deal and

one of the biggest changes to consumer credit that we have seen in decades. dan, thank you. appreciate it. we are just getting started on "the exchange." another read on the consumer and inflation. this time with the ceo of chef's warehouse. finding value in vice city, miami style. "the exchange" is back after this. a car is a car... is a spa. an office. hi! hello! a cinema. so automated. yes, the definition of a car changes... but one thing stays the same. it's a mercedes-benz.

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that's wall-to-wall wifi on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "the exchange." if you like wagyu beef or high-end seafood, our next guest may be supplying some of that goodness. chef's warehouse is a specialty food distributor, they serve 3,000 suppliers and producers globally, and that gives them a unique view into the food economy and ecosystem and they had an earnings beat because the stock has been hot. we're joined by founder and ceo and also i'm told former professional basketball player in europe christopher pappas. welcome to cnbc. love talking about the restaurant industry, one of the biggest and most important in the united states. our friend is on often talking about this issue. how is the restaurant economy right now, post covid?

>> yeah. well, thank god it's a lot better than covid was for us. so we're glad to see that chapter past. so business is great. our fourth quarter was strong. we like to think that the customers that we serve, you know, serve the top 10% of the world's earners. and we had a very good, strong fourth quarter. we're very optimistic that our customer's consumer is healthy. >> and it's been amazing, because we all know that inflation has been a major part of the restaurant story, not just restaurants, but dine-in as well, grocery stores, whether you cook at home or go out to eat, costs are up. you have a national stage right now. there's this theme that everybody is gouging and rich people are getting richer. can you explain to the audience

what happened during and as we went through covid, that caused a lot of the higher prices that we are seeing now? >> obviousry, you had a lot of disruption in the supply chain. that goes all the way to, if you're feeding cattle, there's a disruption. if you're buying freight, fuel went up and down. so it seems like that's passed us. so now we have obviously two wars going on and some obstruction there. but overall, it's pretty normalized. freight has come way down. fuel is at a manageable cost. so those crazy, you know, headwinds that we had with inflation going crazy, you know, last year, 2% was our latest numbers. so it seems like it's pretty normalized. >> but prices are not going -- the burger that was $13 at a

fast -- not fast food, but like a mom and pop restaurant in the west was $13, now it's $21. that's not going back to $13, is it? >> no. we don't see it. you know, a lot of the costs, wages are up. that's a big input. so we don't see it. thank god we don't see crazy inflation at this moment, or, you know, where it's settled is manageable. but i don't think really have i ever seen restaurant prices go backwards. we're just glad they're stabilize. you know, what we tell our clients are, you know, it's expensive, so it better be good. so our focus is on quality of the product. >> we're showing some of your customers. you have hard rock, mgm, shake shack, many more. you focus on the independent

side rather than the massive national chains, as i understand it. so for people who are not familiar with your company, and some investors are because the stock has done well over the last year, who do you compete with? are you competing with like a pat lafrida at the high end of the meat side? where do you fit into the scheme? >> you know, we like to think we're very competitive, obviously. we like to think that anybody that sells to our customers is a competitor. chef's is very unique. what we do, it's a logistical company. we buy from over, you know, a few thousand suppliers from over 40 countries around the world. so we buy good, better, best. so we compete with the big guys a little bit, and we compete with a lot of the mom and pop's at the street levels, people selling especially, have

something specialty across the country. so we do it all through our system and we're able to pretty much supply, you know, our customer almost through all their needs. so it's a very unique model. >> and you have grown organically and grown through deals, as well. will you remain sort of, pardon the pun, hungry for more acquisitions? i had to get a pun in there somewhere. [ laughter ] >> yeah. well, we're always hungry for growth. with over a thousand people in the streets, in our sales department every day. so we're constantly calling on new customers. but i think we've done enough acquisition for right now. we're always talking to people and open to new ideas. but right now, we have a pretty good foot print, which was my goal for the last ten years.

i think, you know, we have set the company up to really start to harvest a lot of the seeds we planted over the next so many years through tremendous organic growth. so we never say never, but right now, the focus is organic growth. >> organic growth, chef's warehouse. the stock has been hot this the past year. the pride of richfield, connecticut. thank you very much. >> thanks for having us. coming up, probably no surprise here, but real estate is the worst sector for your money so far this year. but even with that, there are always opportunities for investors interested in giving in. that's next. as we head to break, senator elizabeth warren, just moments ago tweeted --

>> so there you go. e nator warren, very powerful on thtape. we're back after this.

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all right. welcome back to "the exchange." not a great day for technology stocks, by the way. the entire markets are down, but the nasdaq is down 1.5%. many of these high rollers, like a super micro, down another 10%. lost 30% of its value. on february 15th, just last thursday, i tweeted, i'm getting old, i was a little concerned about some of this run. stock is down 30% since that time. a lot of the air coming out and people are getting pinched. we mentioned the walmart/vizio deal at the top of the hour, weighing on shares of roku. with this move, roku is now down 29% in just two sessions. by the way, walmart's ceo will join jim on "mad money" tonight, that's a big interview. that catch at 6:00 p.m. on maryland. >>

shares of western midstream are spiking. occidental petroleum, which owns 49% of this natural gasline operator is exploring a sale of western main stream. we reached out for comment and we'll let you know if we have an update. elsewhere, real estate has been an underperformer lately. no surprise. but the potential rate cuts on the horizon, are there opportunities starting to grow in the sector? dom chu has a look. >> so real estate, of course, being hit hard because of aspect tied to what's happening with interest rates. if you look at the sector overall, it's been an underperformer in the past year, down roughly 3% to 4% versus a 23% gain for the s&p 500. so are there ways to screen out from where there are possible opportunities? if you look at this particular way that we approached it, you

look at the sector overall. we decided to ask the pro team to take a look at their stock screens, and look for opportunities. they looked at the s&p 500 real estate sector and momentum to the upside and above average dividend yield, right around 3.5% for the sector overall. boston properties, maintains that positive momentum and a 6% yield. crown castle, which owns cellular towers, with 5.8%-year-old. and vici properties, they own the mgm grand in las vegas and the venetian, ceasar's palace, has 5.6% yield and satisfies some of those screening requirements. for more, just go to cnbc.com/pro. subdescriber can have this tool

at their disposal. so watch real estate. back over to you. >> some new names there. dominic chu, thank you very much. now over to tyler mathisen. >> thank you very much. the white house says today that they are aware of and looking for information about the reported arrest of a ballerina in russia who is a dual russia-u.s. citizen. the russian federal securities service says it arrested the person on suspicion of treason for raising funds for ukraine according to the new york fines. former family blogger ruby frankie was sentenced to 15 years in prison by a court in utah today, ending a months long child abuse case against the mother of six. frankie's business partner is also expected to be sentenced.

around south korean trainee doctors watched off the job at a government policy of boosting medical school quotas. the doctors and government authorities are locking horns over how to address the country's low supply of doctors, which is the lowest in the developed world. brian, back to you. >> tyler mathisen, thank you very much. coming up, your next guest made headlines with his billion dollar bet on san francisco's iconic transamerica pyramid building. now he's going the other way, doubling down on miami. he's join us where we's seeing opportunity in the sunshine state. and we are celebrating black heritage. here's estee lauder's cfo t sharing her story. >> in environments where not many people look like you, you will be constant hi challenged

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welcome back to "the exchange." i've got breaking news you have not heard anywhere else. florida's real estate market is booming, did you know that? the mild climate, zero state income tax attracts people, and if cnbc needs a miami bureau chief, i stand ready to make the sacrifice. last year, florida overtook new york as the second most valuable real estate in the nation. but don peebles told us last week he sees a slowdown ahead. >> miami will slow.

we're seeing it now in terms of volume and prices are pulling back a bit. the covid euphoria is over now, and now we're seeing a more stable and level environment, which is going to be good, because in order to get more businesses down here, things have to stabilize. >> your next guest also develops in the sunshine state, but says he's seeing unprecedented command and is investing $2 billion in miami's historic art decko district. joining us is michael smo. good seeing you. >> thank you, brian. >> you can buy high and sell higher. do you think there's parts of miami a little inflated now or is there a nice runway ahead? >> it's not necessarily parts of miami. i agree with some of what don is saying, but he gave a blank et statement. i don't think that all of miami is seeing crazy demand, and not all of miami is seeing kind of

oversupply. it's really product specific. so the flight to quality, if you look at downtown miami, bribrickle, there's a lot of supply there. there's a lot of residential. he's referring to mostly those type of buildings. if you move into miami beach, it's underdeveloped -- i'm talking about miami beach, so we own three acres on the ocean at the raleigh hotel. >> i walked by it two weeks ago. >> 220 to the of beach front, there is no beachfront developed. we're developing the raleigh hotel, which is getting restored with a new hotel there. we're selling units there between $4,000 and $12,000 a foot. this is -- >> $4,000 and 12,000 a square foot? >> a square foot.

these are numbers that we have never seen. but this is also the other thousand people a day moving to florida. >> that sounds expensive. outrageous. >> there's no reason that buying an apartment on central park should be less or more expensive than buying an apartment in miami on the ocean. it's the same people. >> they would say the climate risk. >> well -- >> you have to protect against that. >> i can tell you there's a tax risk in new york. >> did something just happen with a real estate developer in manhattan? as a developer, and i talked to three guys, they're all like, yeah, this is what appraiser is going to appraise, and you're always going to value it up and down on a rough way. does that make you more hesitant to invest in new york city? >> those were investing in new york city, i have a different strategy. we invest only in super prime real estate.

products in that category have only gone up. you talk about san francisco also. prices have doubled in the transamerica peryramid since covid. so what don was talking about was mid-market product, which was oversupplied due to covid. >> a private club in manhattan, i'm told is not terrible. the rise of the super luxury, super club, i think you would probably agree that you look at manhattan and zzs, sort of the polo barn in a certain way, how much are people willing to pay these days for their privacy? >> it's interesting. there's been a big shift. actually, we bought a building that used to be the coca cola business. it's one of the most prestigious

private clubs in the city and they're seeing big growth in membership now. that's been drif been i two things. the effect from the uk, and covid was an excel rater. people wanted to be more in a protected environment. we've seen a lot of that. we talk about the amman club, which we own, as well. zz's, we're seeing that throughout and we're doing that in miami also. >> a private member's club. why do it that way and not just -- because people will pay for the privacy? >> and there's a demand at that level. >> san francisco, you own the transamerica building. i stayed right behind it in that hilton. what do we need to do to fix san francisco? an amazing city. i'm not knocking it, the opposite. i want san francisco to win.

>> san francisco is winning. i was at a show a month and a half ago, and i said san francisco is winning. i've been saying san francisco is going to win for quite a while now. and today, at the cover of the wall street journal, there was an article how tech is going back to san francisco. we're seeing that. the pyramid has doubled since precovid. >> you have to get the people back. i was shocked when i walked around san francisco. the embarcadero used to have thousands of people, but there was like eight people walking around. >> it's better than it was 12 months ago. we're seeing people moving back to san francisco. the city needs to be more aggressive with security. but in miami, we discussed miami beach. miami beach today is something that we have huge believers in.

big portion is developing high-end in miami beach to satisfy the lionel messis of the world. i'm not sure he's sitting in an office, hopefully not. but there's a tremendous amount of demand for high-end office space that doesn't exist. miami beach has never been an office space, but with movement of wealth to miami beach, there's a demand right now to work, live, and play in miami beach, not just plan a vacation, which is what it was precovid. >> here in new york city, you have the amman, a big building in chicago and the transamerica pyramid building. we could get all day. thanks for coming in. coming up, morgan stanley's adam making a bad choice. you're going to hear from the stellantis ceo and the head wind he thinks needs to change. stick around.

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they plan to launch 18 new evs this year, including eight in the united states. here's what the ceo said about what it will take for evs to really take off in america. >> to make the ev spark you need to align the stars. being, of course, clean energy, you need to have dense, charging network that people can see. you need a product with a very high range like the products that you're bringing to the markets and 500 miles of range and that should be enough and you need affordability and what is at stake right now is affordability. >> maybe why ford cut the price today. chinese ev maker byd wants the new version of the hybrid sedan for only $11,000. that's a 20% price cut from its previous version. the stock is basically at a

three-year low and keep an eye when those byds start to come here, detroit will have a big, new, because there are no labor costs, challenger. >> we have wingtop and palo alto in earnings exchange next.

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you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers that for your business.st. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? did we peak your interest? you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. all right. welcome back to "the exchange." we've got the trade on three big

gainers over the past year. they are toll brother, cybersecurity palo alto and wingstop, they sell wing ahead of the reports. our trader today is lee mutnsen cio. toll brothers soared 40% since october and mortgage rates off their high as lower rates reduced the need from buyer incentives although rates have stabilized and tick a little higher in the last cupouple of weeks, lee, how would you rate toll brothers? i think if they'll actually complete 10,000 homes this year. remember, they're looking at 10,000 homes this year at almost a million dollar average price and here's what they're doing and why it's less of a rates issue. they're trying to build what they call affordable luxury which just means taking a big house and putting it on a cheaper lot with less upgrades and that's making it affordable

even as rates stay high or sticky this year. i also think the general strategy of trying to make affordable homes and it's a big thing for toll brothers and they're into the high-end luxury stuff and i don't see anything wrong with the stock, and if you own it, hold it. >> own it, hold. up next, palo alto, gaining 25% already in this year alone. goldman sachs citing secular drivers including an elevated breach backdrop thanks to the israel-hamas war and the upcoming election, as well is easing spending headwinds. would you trade? would you own? would you sell palo alto? >> for full disclosure, i own it and i love it this year. i think it's gotten ahead itself, and i don't care. here's what the issue is, can they execute? now are going to hear some news and they keep talking about the price of money and the silicon valley start-ups and what have you that you're leading off the

private equity lines of credit and if you get into quarterly results where we're having problems or people want to lengthen their duration as if they're bond traders on softwares and i think that might be opportunity, but here's where the big opportunity is. a few of palo alto's workers themselves are independent contractors with unmanaged computer devices and so much of us in big business have unmanaged devices. that's where the opportunity is. i think there's got a lot of tailwind to this. i would just hold it and i think it is a multi-year play. >> a multi-year play. by the way, folks. don't miss cramer with palo alto, jim has the ceo of palo alto and the ceo of walmart. another big night on " mad money." you're a vegan and i don't know how you're vegan, and i doubt you've had the product.

wingstop, they expect to see positive sales growth and wingstop offering new offering and input costs and you may not like the new product, lee, but what about the stock and the company? >> i ask my young analyst who definitely eats hot wings and he said it's much better than buffalo wild wings and they have a less crappy option for that market. here's what i love about it. is the story getting better and number two, do they have runway? they have more than five guys and chipotle. i don't think this will be the kentucky fried chicken or a big chain, but they've got another two or three years of packing on 250, 300 stores before they start saturating america. remember, it's a cheap franchise to own. they can get you in there for 300,000 or $400,000 so think about them. i am most excited about it and i'm definitely looking. >> and the sideways taste test. lee munsen, thank you very much. folks, that does it for "the

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