welcome to "power lunch," everybody. we are seconds away from the release of the minutes of the fed's last meeting. we go right now to the details. steve? >> thank you, tyler. the minutes from the january meeting show that fed officials saw the monetary policy rate at likely the peak of this hiking cycle. but these minutes are full of concern about upside risks to inflation. while we saw things moving into better balance, the committee was still more concerned with inflation. it was important to note, this meeting came before those upside surprises we saw. we saw those inflation numbers for the month of january.

some were concerned that the inflation process could stall. most participants emphasized the rate cuts quickly. only a couple pointed to the downside, economic risks keeping rates restrictive for too long. they began the discussion of slowing and ending the reduction at the next meeting with no particular timetable for when that might end. if you saw the runoff continuing for some time even after cutting -- beginning to cut interest rates. it may be your main concern that elevated inflation was still harming american households. they noted improvements in inflation. some sake indicators like housing inflation what fall in the future but participants saw upside inflation risks and stronger demand. we saw loosening financial conditions. and the possibility that the inflation equivalent we saw in better supply chains could begin to moderate, so that effectiveness of bringing down

inflation could go away. a few folks are concerned and on consumers but that was not really the base of the discussion. i will leave it there and simply say again, before these worse inflation numbers came in january, the fed still had the concern about inflation. still pointing out that it's inflation measures had not reached 2%, and that is why the chair at that meeting was still hawkish. >> so the numbers that came out came out after the meeting and after this -- not after this commentary, i suppose you would say. do you think the fact that those numbers they come in hotter than normal hardens the view of -- we will call them inflation hawks -- just because it is convenient. >> yeah. i think that is a good way to put it, tyler. the caution we had in the january meeting make sense in light of the numbers. it underpins or supports our

position. you say inflation hawks, tyler, but i am having a hard time reading this and seeing any doves on the committee. maybe a couple but not a whole lot. >> they see the upside in inflation risk. and that it is more worrisome than the other side. >> quite a long way. >> and you did not see any sort of commentary for more dramatic pace of rate cuts? >> a couple throwaway lines, tyler, like concern about pressure on consumers with elevated delinquencies. perhaps in the buy-now, pay- later. they keep saying things are coming into better balance, but they do not see it as balance. they see still a inflation concern. >> is there quickly a possibility of a rate hike this year based on what you are reading there? >> i don't think so.

i think the committee believes it is restrictive and above the restrictive level they need to bring inflation down. there was not any discussion at all in these minutes. i have not heard it much from other fed officials. even the chair has acknowledged the possibility that it could happen, but i think the response to -- david, not the way they wanted to, tyler -- could be at these other levels rather than raising again. >> thank you, very much. let's talk a little bit more about the possibility, maybe, of rate hikes. in light of last week's reports, let's discuss it more with jim graham. no one better to talk interest rates and the fed then you, jim. no one better to have with us. you just heard steve in response to my question say there's nothing in the minutes that he read that indicates the fed is inclined to raise interest rates despite their concern about inflation. what are you hearing?

>> well, steve is in good company. suggesting the chances are nil of a rate ike this year. let's look at the reckoning of the odds favoring the rate hike. looked down the nine minutes into 2025. what you see is your percent at every meeting. now, i don't know about you, tyler, but i would decide that your percent is very, very small group of possible outcomes in the world of finance. will congress ever balance the budget? maybe. also, i think the world expects everything except what i deemed to be a not improbable thing, which is that inflation might persist the outside. it might persist. and in those circumstances, the fed might very well have to

raise rates indeed. the president of the dallas fed, lori logan, suggested as much. with deservedly little reporting in january. what she said was that you should not rule it out. >> so let me just make sure i am understanding your point of view here. and i get you when you say, you know, the idea of applying a 0% chance to something like a fed rate hike or fed rate cut seems a little extreme to you. it has got to be higher than a 0% chance. but is it your base case that the fed is likelier than not to raise interest rates rather than cut them? >> now, i don't think it is my base case, but i think the chances of it are not negligible. and it is certainly something to bear in mind. i mean, what would -- you would be surprised if looking back on this episode in four or five years and say, well, the

government was running a budget deficit of 5 or 6% of gdp in 2024 when the unemployment rate was 3.7%. now, it seems that the stock market was on the verge of making new highs and credits were suppressed. and the chicago index of financial conditions shows that that never has been stringent since it began. in those circumstances, would you be surprised by a resurgence of inflation? no. i would not be surprised. so what i am surprised by is the expectation that we are in for a succession of cuts this year. i think people have been deeply conditioned by 40 years of declining greats that ended in 2021. and, of course, who would not be conditioned? that is two generations of successful investing. i think the world has changed

and i think inflation is by no means conquered. and i recall the previous insurances under the secretary of the treasury in 1971 saying the momentum of inflation is clearly reversed or halted or contained. i don't think he used the can caned word. but paul barker himself, he contained inflation. went with the rate hikes. but, you know, with three waves of inflation from the late 'city -- '60s to 1980 -- it is almost done. >> i remember it well. of course it was not done until it was sprung out of the system with interest rates that went up into the mid-teens and higher. so what is your -- if they rate hike is not your base case, then what is your base case for the direction and intensity, let's say, of interest rates

this year and into '25? >> well, tyler, so many times around the course have iran. i am looking for the opportunity to exploit. what i am looking to do is to see how people are positioned to kind of recognize the odds of that favorable position coming to pass. and if the odds favor a contrary point of view, then to look for things to do in that vein. and i think there are many things to do in the event that inflation persists. i think it is likely to persist. i think inflation is likely to persist. i think rates are likely to remain higher for much, much, much longer. and trending markets and fixed income tend to persist for not years are fiscal quarters but

decades. so on the base case then, tyler, inflation will surprise us with its persistence. interest rates will surprise us with their persistence of being high and going higher. and the disappointment what the 100% groupin . they may well be disappointed. >> let me just try one more thought here. i was struck that you used "much" four times. much, much, much, much. how long? >> well, the prior, 1946 to '81. bonds went for 40. i say it ended in 2021. but going back to the middle of

that 19th century, bonds have had multiple decade affairs. with as few as 20 years and as many as 40 years. this is simply pattern recognition. no guesswork. so it is not invariably. but if the past were in this case a prologue we will be looking -- not every year -- but looking at what happened perhaps from the 1940s 'to the early 1980s. >> jim, always good to see you, sir. now let's see how the bond market reacts to what we heard from the fed. for that, we go to rick santelli in chicago.

>> high, tyger. they are more aligned with the thought process then do investors have had recently meaning that no one really knows where inflation is going. no one is not going to be surprised if it is not linear, especially after the cpi and ppi reads. in the 20 year bond option capture the attention of investors a little bit more aggressively than the minutes to the last meeting. look at the 20 year bonds, and you can see at 1:00 eastern they popped. that was the 45th offering of 20 year bond since they were bought back in may of 2020. and the yield rate option at four point 9 1/2 was over three basis points higher than the one issued traded. higher yield. lower price. the government was the seller and it was not pretty. in fact, if you look at the rest of the curve, look at a year to date of two years, they are on a fresh high-yield

close. 4.66. if you look at the same chart, the pattern is eerily similar. 4.31. they look like they are going to potentially close higher than that. so what we have right now is twos, tens, twenties, and thirties. that is a significant thing, especially on a day when we hit 313 trillion in global debt while the u.s. has trillions of its own debt. to me, the big issue is that even though bond funds are a very happy medium to take, there's no alternative off the board for stocks. it still does not mean there is not a nervousness about the yields and the year they were supposed to be going down. tyler, back to you. >> all right, rick santelli. thank you very much, rick. coming up, we are heading

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welcome back to "power lunch." the nasdaq is down the most. the fed is still very concerned about inflation and sees risks in cutting too quickly. let's talk about what that could mean for the stock market with ryan van cronkite. welcome. good to have you. you heard what steve liesman said and how he characterized them meaning as how folks are really more concerned with inflation risk than not. there was not a lot of clamor for a rate cut which most

people were not expecting. jim grant was saying, hey, do not take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. work your main on all this? >> i remain focused on my view that the fed is focused on preventing inflation first. i've been saying for a long time and repetitively that the market continues to try to get ahead of the fed when the reality is that the fed is in no rush. i think the likelihood is that they will stay in higher than what it is priced in the possibility is out there. i think like mr. grant is probably not likely, but it is out there. so as all of us investors, we need to respect that and had we play the market accordingly? >> so you're basically in the grant camp which is that rates will stay higher for longer. what does that mean for equity investors who have counted -- most of them -- that rate cuts

are coming sometime this year. maybe may. maybe june. whenever. >> yeah. without a doubt, in the back two months of last year, the market started to embrace that early cycle playbook. we saw abate up being embraced. a lot considered low-quality being embraced. so there was a little uptight to that cutting dynamic. i think right now, we need to think about how to play defense in case bad things do happen and if it loses control of the economy. how about we play defense? there are a lot of ways to create offside to companies that can deploy capital and control their own destiny. i am looking for the upside to what companies can control on their own. >> let's talk about some of the opportunities you see. real estate. health. and lab court arch capital. >> i think it is really

interesting going back to where mr. grant mentioned it. what i see with real estate and the public markets especially is that the market anticipates a lot of destruction. but cre is very interesting. they have a balance sheet with over $300 billion in capital able to spend. they have a big part of their business which is ervice based. so hiring and cash flow. the part the market cares about right now the transaction- based. leasing and sales. even if they don't stabilize, you will see actions pick up. i think cbre is interesting because there is the opportunity ahead of them and they will win no matter what. >> let's give you one last thought on lab corp. >> lab corp. again looking to play offense when you have basically a defensive business model. very low cost to get lab tests.

very clinical. it will be in demand as long as i can be an investor. the opportunity today though is that they are consolidating their industry. look for them to use their balance sheet to acquire other labs, rolled them in with very attractive multiples, and boost the margins over time. the margin will cap those in. >> interesting pieces there on lab corp. brian, thank you very much. we appreciate it. coming up, apple says the new vision pro is only available in the u.s. so why do they have retail locations in of all places moscow? and solar. we have details on that one down 12% right now.

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welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. the big ten solar etf. we are joined with the details. this one is a bit of a bust. >> this one is the cloudy

outlook that is weighing. for q1, they sees the solar revenue midpoint with 200 million short of estimates and well below the nearly $1 billion just a few quarter ago. the demand slowed. there was just too much supply. i spoke to the ceo last night who told me the company is now shipping less to clear the channel which is why revenue has not come down. while in europe, it is recovering, in the u.s. it is not. they told me, the u.s. is broken and there is no good financial reason to put solar on your rooftop. he said the rates have to come down in order for the market to turn around. >> when the ceo of the solar business says there is no good reason to put solar on your rooftop that is a pretty telling indictment. >> he said among the other things, the infrastructure and process is not as mature in europe. think of the door-to-door salesman. they all have to be paid which

means in the u.s. it is still more expensive. in europe, there is solar everywhere. they are more familiar. the guy down the block and install it for you. >> the revenue guidance was what? half of what was expected? >> that does not indicate what the underlying demand is. they are under shipping. they have some 750 million of this backlog to clear. so it is getting clearer. but the revenue will not clear. >> until the backlog. >> exactly. >> i appreciate it. let's go to kate rooney now for a update. >> withholding evidence in malcolm x's death on the 59th anniversary of his passing. he has new witness testimony that shows the fbi and other law enforcement were involved in the leader's assassination. crump is leading the hundred

million dollar lawsuit. pausing ibf treatments following the state court ruling that frozen embryos can be considered children under state law. the university of alabama decided to stop its treatments to protect its patients from potential criminal prosecution and damages. and tiger woods' 15-year old son will qualify for a event. charlie woods will play an 18 hole event in florida on the pga tour website. he has never played in a tour of that but he has played four times at the pnc championship with his father. tyler, back over to you. >> like father, like son. kate, thank you. still to come, nvidia making a massive investment. at the a.i. chip leader is buying in,

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nvidia reports results after the bell. also, a big interview in the last hour on cnbc. christina joins us now. what was your big take away there? >> reporter: well, this is the intel foundry. the take away is that intel is opening up its factories to third parties with the goal of becoming the biggest in the world after taiwan's. microsoft will become its new founding customer. that means using intel manufacturing to build microsoft chips. we do not have any details on what kind of chips, but this is one of several drivers to where they increase the pipeline to $15 billion. but that does not mean a huge flow of revenues just yet. the intel foundry business has a warning that they want to see meaningful revenues but will not until 2025. i asked intel if that meant he

would have to change the previous province and heading $120 billion in revenue by 2026. here is his response. >> i think it is going to take us a little while longer. >> we are building a substantial foundry business over time and that is ramping up. >> reporter: so a little behind schedule. you know? the foundry business need to wrap up and there are also delays at the ohio plant with pat gelsinger blaming macro divisions for delays over there but they do expect more funding within the next two weeks. >> yeah. they are supposed to get a big slug of money there. let's move on to those nvidia results that everyone is waiting for. what are investors are anxious to hear from here. i have been saying, if there's

any little nit to pick it is going to turn into a price drop. >> reporter: yeah. and of the earnings are just so high for this company after two blowout quarters. today, it was down 4%. yesterday, almost 5%. the biggest thing investors will want to see a sustainability at data revenue central demand. so it reassures investors that this a.i. trend in stock run-up is actually meaningful and is going to last. so there are concerns that gpu's, so graphic processing units, are improving. that means demand gets billed sooner than expected and leads to a possible slowdown in the near future. so the concern about that beyond 2025 still remains, followed by a, of course, you have got some updates on the price of the a.i. chip. then details on chips from china given export restrictions. that is really important because china considers 20% of

data revenue. expecting $20.6 billion. $23.0 billion in revenue. those are the numbers we want to see tonight. it is expected at $17 billion. the auctions market is implying a 7% move in nvidia shares. risk to the downside. but nvidia has its next big a.i. event on march 19th and shares tend to move up on that event. >> all right. christina, thank you so much. plenty of people are betting on nvidia but who is nvidia betting on? the chip giant has taken a $3.7 million stake in soundhound a.i. and soundhound shares have more than doubled in the month of february. now, we see the happy ceo of

soundhound a.i. so that little move must harden you as the ceo of this company. >> we are focused on the long- term value creation but it is right to have the recognition that we deserve. >> how did this stake by nvidia come about? how does that happen? did they call you and say they want a position in your company? what is the behind-the-scenes part of that company? >> well, we have known nvidia for years . we have known the company for a number of years. if you think about it, they are in a.i. but they are building the foundation and infrastructure for a.i., and soundhound is putting that infrastructure into really good use with our voice a.i. and conversational a.i. technology. >> $3.7 million is a lot of money but it is not that much in some terms. how do you use that to make

your business stronger? >> well, we are a public company. we have been in a quiet period that i cannot comment on. a lot of financial stuff. but if you look at the last four years, we have had amazing, incredible growth. that has been sustained for four years. >> i want to get to the details of what your company does. but before i leave the stock question, there have been reports confirmed by the financial times that trading volume went up rather dramatically in the days before the announcement of the nvidia stake in your company. that is sometimes an issue that would attract the interest of the securities and exchange commission. are you at all concerned about the volume increase? the average volume, $2.7 million, but $64 million february 8th. $64 million february 7th. that is a lot of trading volume

in the stock before a important material announcement. what would you like to say on that? >> based on the headline, it seems like more set for speculation. look at the volume up and down. >> it is higher than the average daily. >> it is higher. but if you look at other a.i. companies that are not in the nvidia portfolio, they lso had the same experience. >> have you had any contact from or with the x securities and exchange commission regarding that spike? >> no. >> let's get back to then the spike in price. fascinating stuff. your products are kind of in two areas. one is customer service. if i go to a dunkin' donuts or krispy kreme are jersey mike's, there is an automated ordering

thing that recognizes my voice when i say i want the number 7 with no onions and extra cheese. right? that is what it does. then it enables me in my automobile or my home to tell an appliance or a car what to do. am i right on that? is that what you do? >> yes. tremendous opportunity in a.i. you're focusing on those traditions. a.i. customer service will be set for every business as wi-fi and electricity. so you sign up for your business and sign up for wi-fi, electricity, and a.i. then the second prediction is that we will prefer talking to devices than other people. >> if you tell me that, i will believe it. often when i talk to the device, the person on the other end whether it is siri or alexa, or all these women answering all these questions, they don't get it right half the time. are you going to get it right?

>> that has changed. the quality is so much better. people prefer voice if it works. >> if it works, i prefer it. >> i have a three-year-old daughter. she knows how to speak. >> she talked to refrigerators. she talked to that dishwashers. >> unfortunately for the device makers, they could. >> how-tos generative a.i. -- we sort of hit on it -- change the efficiency, the accuracy, the scope of what your product can do? >> for example, one of our customers is using a.i. to automate their drive- through's. they can take the order in 60 seconds, which is faster than the humans. the quality surpasses that humans in terms of accuracy.

then we are freeing other humans to make the food. right? so everyone is happy there. so in jersey mike's, usually when they call a restaurant they do not pick up the phone. and when they do, it is a very noisy, distracting environment. they are missing out on orders. but with our a.i , we don't miss a single call. they take the order and place the questions and the orders on their system. 10,000 locations. >> keyvan mohajer, thank you very much. keyvan mohajer of soundhound a.i. coming up, apple says its new vision pro is not available for sale anywhere outside the u.s. but now the device is being spotted in retail outlets in moscow. the story when "power lunch" returns.

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apples new vision pro headset turned heads in the u.s. when it went on sale a couple weeks ago, but now the device is going on sale in places it maybe did not expect or even want. >> hi there, tyler. apple launches new apple vision pro with the flagship store in new york. the company said that product would only be for sale in the united states. they were protesting the sale of ukraine nearly two years ago. you would not have expected the vision pro to be for sale at all in russia. >> the cnbc survey of moscow reveals that the vision pro was readily available for sale in retail outlets in moscow within days of its launch in the united states. the fact that the hottest new american tech product was available with almost no delay in moscow before it is officially on sale in london,

paris, or munich is a high profile demonstration of the difficulty of unraveling the global economy, even in an era of war conflict. asked about applevision pro- sales in moscow, and he emailed cnbc that said, as you are aware, it is only available in retail stores in the u.s. in the russian capital, that statement may reflect apple's intent but it is not square with reality. a retail outlet known as restore: is offering it for sale now. but prices are high. more than 50% more than in the u.s. the vision pro sales for thousands of dollars more during stores there. roman says he actually bought his device by preorder in new york and had some of fly into moscow so he could demonstrate it immediately to his more than 1 million followers on you to.

roman predicts the high prices in russia will keep demand down in that country. sales are down because the russian government wants them to be. the russian ministry of industry and trade issued a document for products to be imported to russia, even when official supplies are banned or suspended by the manufacturer. in russia, that rerouting of supply chains is known as parallel import. that is white nearly two years after the invasion and apple's pull out of russia, apple products are still available in stores there. a fascinating story on how things can get into where they are not supposed to. still ahead, out with the old and in with the new. amazon is looking to replace walgreens in the doubt next week. that is not the only thing that traders say should be added to the index. and we will be celebrating black heritage. we interview tracy travis for

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all right, let's talk about the dow shakeup from yesterday evening. joining us, the managing director and cnbc contributor, boris. amazon is replacing walgreens boots alliance in the dow jones national average. what is your trade on amazon? >> amazon is a very interesting trade. it is basically moving away from all of the gains it made from a.i. and applying knowledge into their retail business space. they have been able to i think

reduce their cost by $0.45 per unit and increase their margin. their margin went from negative to 6% over the last couple of quarters. very, very impressive. they've got this new a.i. that will basically be a shock to the system that people seem to really, really like. the initial reviews have been very positive. imagine the a.i. working with their customers. for amazon, that is one of the companies that could create a $1 trillion business selling goods, travel, healthcare. there are markets markets haven't even thought about that amazon will enter and of course, they are focused on this one touch life that they try to customize for their customer set and it s very attractive and that puts them at the leaderboard for everyone to see. >> this is a buy in your book. let's move on to walgreens boots alliance. booted for amazon.

is this a sign of the bottom of the stock, or what? >> very tempting to say it is the bottom. a lot of times when they get flipped on the dow, they do really well. the big problem here, they have a huge amount of debt on their books. it is a company with negative cash flow, so to me, yes, they've had management changes and they are cutting their dividends to stop the bleeding. i think really for the investors right now, we will see if these one or two quarters are positive before you dip your toe in the water. you don't want to buy a false bargain. >> that is a strong caution there. let's move on to one that -- well, maybe some people think ought to be in the dow and that is eli lilly. >> that is my argument. i think one is bigger than four

right now, at least for the immediate future for our civilization. the drug will have massive, massive effects not only on weight loss, but heart disease, liver disease, perhaps mental health in terms of creating or controlling impulses. eli lilly could quintuple their earnings. now is the stock overbought? absolutely. is it overvalued? i don't think so and for that reason you have to put it in the dow given the fact it is one of the dominant stocks in the single biggest industry in the u.s. economy, healthcare. the fact it is not there every single day is a miss. will change our lives. >> strong endorsement for eli lilly. boris, always great to see you, sir. boris schlossberg. still ahead, apple releasing a sports app. sign me up. it looks to become a sports btietng powerhouse,

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somebody in the comments said, i have no idea how i got on nun talk, but i'm not mad about it. i'm going to teach you how to pray. i'm going to teach you how to meditate, how to connect with a higher power, because we need that. we need strength and comfort.

all right, we've only got about three minutes left in the show and we've got media stories to talk about. we love the media stories before we get out of here. apple out with a new app for tracking sports scores. julia boorstin, what is the deal here? >> it is specifically designed for tracking sports scores, not for watching the games. this is apple's latest move to bolster its role as a sports provider in news. u.s., canada, and uk users can download the app today. he will be able to see scores from all of the major teams and leagues. the app is designed to be fast

and simple so users can check back frequently. it is not designed to engage them for long sessions. he says apple has the advantage of not being bias by representing a specific team or league and while it will show betting odds, it will not allow users to better the app and you can turn off that feature. all of this builds in apple's investments in sports. bought the rights to major league baseball, soccer, and added sports journalists to its news app and is featuring sports documentaries on apple tv plus. apple is expected to make a bid for the nba streaming when the rights go up for grabs later this year. obviously a hot category, tyler. >> they are not llowing betting through the app right now. that has to be an enticing possibility down the road, i would think. >> there are a lot of possibilities, including integrating the ability to watch sports in the app. >> i will sign up for it when i

get off air here. next, fubo suing disney. what's going on here, julia? >> we've got no comment from disney, espn, fox, and warner bros. on this lawsuit from fubo tv . they say their joint venture is bad for consumers and unfair for companies like his own, companies forced to pay higher fees. >> this, to me, is a step in the wrong direction. what you will see is the typical playbook. you start with low prices, marginalized competition and eventually drive prices higher which we have seen across other services over the past 36 months . >> fubo is asking the court to block the launch of this new sports and tv streaming bundle or to make the giants teaming up on it an offer to fubo on fair

licensing deals. fubo's stock fell before the announcement of this streaming bundle but the fact these streamers are starting to re- bundle validates his approach to this business. tyler? >> the question is really coming to a head. are we going to end up paying more for these various bundles of streamers than we pay for the cable bundle that everybody cut? thanks for watching power lunch, everybody. and thank you, julia. closing bell starts now. welcome to closing bell. i am scott laver from the new york stock exchange. we begin with the countdown to the most important earnings report in months. in overtime, so much riding on that for that a.i. trade and we have our experts standing by. shareholders who cover the stocks, we will get to them in a moment. take a look at the scorecard. with 60 left to go, let's take a look.