streamers are starting to re- bundle validates his approach to this business. tyler? >> the question is really coming to a head. are we going to end up paying more for these various bundles of streamers than we pay for the cable bundle that everybody cut? thanks for watching power lunch, everybody. and thank you, julia. closing bell starts now. welcome to closing bell. i am scott laver from the new york stock exchange. we begin with the countdown to the most important earnings report in months. in overtime, so much riding on that for that a.i. trade and we have our experts standing by. shareholders who cover the stocks, we will get to them in a moment. take a look at the scorecard. with 60 left to go, let's take a look.

russell 2000 down 1%. interest rates are elevated. that is one of the reasons small caps tend to get hurt. clearly the stock story of the day ahead of nvidia. you just don't see a decline like that. 105 points, near 30%. other cyber names are selling often sympathy too. take a look across the board. they are all lower. that takes us to our talk of the table. what to expect when nvidia report in less than an hour and what does it mean for the rally? let's ask our panel . josh brown is here. also a longtime shareholder, stacy ran scott. $700 is his price target. overweight is his rating. it is good to have everybody with us. josh, let's start with you.

you have called this the whole ball game for the most crowded trade on earth. that pretty much says it all going in here. >> i think that's right. look, it is not just a media phenomenon. everywhere i go in new york, whether they are analysts, traders, investors with their own portfolio, there are two things guys want to talk about. the first is sydney sweeney and the next is nvidia. this is the story . i think what happened today with palo alto was relevant to the discussion because i think it demonstrates the extent to which we have set the bar at such a high level. it is going to be really difficult not just for nvidia but as you start getting into guidance season, it will be difficult to keep people in these stocks in the size in which they have been playing them. keep in mind palo alto is losing a third of its market

cap today. billions of dollars. do you know what they said? they gave guidance of $1 billion for the full year and the previous estimate, $8.15 billion. the math on that is astonishing and again, it has nothing really to do with palo alto. it is a signpost for all of us in high bid high evaluation to understand that this is not the same game it was a year ago. the expectations on wall street have caught up and now it's like , well, what are you going to tell me today? yesterday was really exciting and the day before was really exciting, so what is left in your bag of tricks? nvidia is the kind of company that does have a sizable bag of tricks . i just hope they have enough. >> on josh's point, he set it up absolutely perfectly. >> that is what i do, scott. >> how high is the bar? >> the bar has been high every quarter. it is not a new thing. i think nvidia is in a unique position given there is no

question the numbers today are going up. i don't think they will be missing the consensus. demand is very, very strong. seems like supply is starting to get better. one of the questions is, you know, does supply get better? we've got a catalyst coming in march. they've got an event in about a month and i am assuming they will sound incredibly bullish there. this is a company that i think does have the goods. expectations have been high. i think it is one where you need to be there. >> how much of what you just said is already in the stock price, which is dominantly -- ominous and sitting at 666 point whatever? >> they've had great numbers and the stock is tempted to

sell off a bit and consolidate. the stock has actually sold off a bit the last few days into the fringe. maybe that is a good thing. maybe that is helping the prophet kind of reducing the expectations a bit. there is less price today than a week ago when it was in the 700s and i keep saying this and i set it on your program more than once. nvidia is not expensive . it is the cheapest of all of the a.i. stocks. it is way cheaper than intel at this point, right? i still think there is room for expectations to continue to go up. >> how nervous are you? >> not nervous. not nervous at all. i agree with stacy that they will deliver the goods. i think what is interesting the last two days, stock prices have been weak but there is a

lot of speculation going on but it's very bullish. today the most active contract is this friday's 1300 at $0.21. there have been 36,000 contracts traded. for me, that is retail speculation. it is juxtaposed to the stock price, but don't forget, they will have a compliant chip this year. their margins -- stacy, correct me -- are around 80. i mean, this company is operating on all cylinders. to josh's point, which was very good on palo alto, investors need to understand they are alive and kicking. if you have a company that slightly beat what you have down, the market will cut your knees off right there. the original print will come out and we will get a reaction.

they are saying tend to 11%, but to me, it is all about the earnings call and where they are seeing the trajectory. they have so much product. to me, they are in full position. >> josh, you wonder what more the ceo needs to do. does he need to, you know, parachute in from outer space, cartwheel when he lands, or say something fabulous on the call? he has raised the bar so incredibly high, you wonder if he can live up to the height he has created for this company. >> at the next quarter, $22 billion earnings per share of $5.02. that would represent 208% revenue growth and 361% earnings growth. again, that is next quarter. what is the guidance? can we hit those numbers? that is one thing that jensen can and probably will do.

stacy, can you hear me? okay. you have been at 700 for a while . it sounds to me you are more bullish on the company than the stock price in the short-term. what would it take for you to upgrade nvidia into your end and take the target to 770? what would it take for you to pull the trigger? i'm looking in your eyes and i know you want to. >> we have talked about this on the program as well. don't read too much into target prices. they don't get updated every hour of every day. target prices do one of two things. it's the multiple and the earnings. we have all been at the target price. >> stacy, what about competition ? look, josh was in amd and the stock was up by 80% in three months. they want to be competitors to nvidia and others want to be competitors to nvidia and their

stocks have gone up a lot too. how do you see the competitive landscape challenging what nvidia already has and what it hopes to do? >> nvidia -- look at the numbers for amd. i'm not knocking amd. they've got the narrative there. people have learned to buy the narrative. maybe they will be conservative or maybe it is more than five or six, right? i can't even remember. it is probably $80 billion for the data center or more. we will see where it goes tonight, but in that context, amd, no matter what they do, even though it is meaningful for amd, it is a rounding error in terms of what they should be delivering. that will give you some feeling for the competitive vibe as it stands today, right? you need second sources and people will be nterested in

that but the vast majority of the dollars are going one way. >> on the idea wolf research put out today all momentous -- and i am quoting from their note, stacy. momentum is deteriorating following an overbought environment. let's just say nvidia better deliver . does the broader chips trade impact what happens in an hour? >> it may. we've got other companies that have reported this morning and those kind of markets are maybe a little separated from this and they don't look good. that stock is up though today. they have been sending another message that they have been buying with the cuts. in terms of the high flyers in the computer space, some of the other peripheral names in some of the other momentum ames, yeah, it will clearly have an impact in one way or another. >> bryn, is that how you are

looking at this too? you don't need to get to the ramifications for the mega cap trade in and of itself? you know, i'm looking at the philadelphia semiconductor and it's up 51% over 12 months. a lot of these stocks have been up a lot in a recently short period of time. >> i think that this quarter, nvidia will continue to separate itself from not only the rest of the semiconductors, but the hyperscaler in the call service providers are spending billions of cap acts -- capex in which nvidia is capturing the majority of it . if you go back and look at the cloud service providers in 2012, cloud was a tiny part of microsoft's revenue back then but was able to monetize that and now it is the majority. the challenge for investors is nvidia is capturing all market shares from a revenue

perspective today and i think there is a ton of speculation in the names people are betting on for the future. that is where you will see a lot of air coming out of the tire. nvidia delivers the goods but other companies aren't, so there is a ton of speculation in other names outside of nvidia. >> down 10% or so, josh , in a couple of days. to the point made about maybe this is a good thing in some respects the stock has been under a little bit of pressure going into the number rather than ramping further ahead of the results, how do you view that? >> i like that set up better. i don't like going into earnings at a max six month return and trading in an all time record high. it doesn't leave any room whatsoever for people to act rationally in almost any outcome, so i do agree having the stock cool off a bit not just in terms of price but looking at the trends. you don't want your company reporting earnings around 83 rsi

. to bryn's point, which is an important one, one of the games we play on wall street in the presence of a massive winter like nvidia or a second name like amd is who is next? what is the 2025 nvidia and how can i get out ahead of that? it almost never works. it might be good for a trade but nvidia is nvidia and i think stacy would agree with that statement. there are other great names. they grew earnings over the last three years at a faster rate than nvidia, 73% . that is a very specific situation and i don't think what we want to do here is look at nvidia and buy 10 more chip names and expect something similar. even amd, i think they have made the case their new chips are going to be better at training zanuck nvidia's but nvidia will own inferencing . i've heard all of those things and i don't believe that is the reality on the ground. i think

they are just theories investors are using to justify higher and higher multiples. i would love to hear stacy's take on that because i think it could save people a lot of heart ache. >> stacy? >> i'm sorry, what was the question? >> do you believe the story amd has this specialization going in training and it may be -- >> no, no, no. amd is not training. they said they think they are better inference. >> in france, okay. >> if you look at some of the things -- they are always cherry picking. they always do that and i'm not knocking amd. they always cherry pick . where are the dollars going? the dollars are going where? that tells you what people want to spend money on, like the vast majority of the dollars are going to nvidia but that doesn't mean you don't need second's. to their credit, they've got a credible roadmap with reasonably credible products on it and other players that don't

even have that. amd has that but the bulk of the dollars right now are going in one direction. >> how do you feel, stacy, about nvidia and the topic of broad conversation, obviously? >> it is cheap! low 30s. if you believe the consensus numbers -- and by the way, it is the cheapest of all. if you look at the general kind of a.i. thing out there, amd is the most expensive . intel is more expensive than nvidia. it's got its own story around some of this stuff, but i don't think it's egregious at all. everyone talks about nvidia like it is expensive or they are trailing but you have to look forwards, not backwards. the stock is way cheaper than it has been in a long time. >> it is 80 trailing but it's 25

. >> the problem, bryn, people who look at the multiple, they have a problem with the fact the stock has gone up so much. they have a problem with the price. the way that the price has gone up almost unabated is just startling to some who maybe can get around the multiple but say, oh, my gosh. there was this period of time it seemingly went up almost every day. >> i know. i have said this so many times. it's affordable metrics to use over a one-year period because it tells you nothing, really. what people are missing, the e has gone up more than the p because the stock has gotten cheaper . this has all been so unique. i really haven't seen a stock in a long time that has this kind of return in one year or two years. the e has gone up . usually

you get the p ahead of the e but this has not been the case and the price -- just ignore the price and look at the overall area. this is one of the names that is just growing. what bloomberg shows right now, it is not expensive even remotely for the growth that they have currently. >> let's say, josh, there is an upset and it doesn't have to be palo alto kind of upset, but what kind of floor is under this name given everything stacy said and the way you feel and the way bryn feels about stock . any upset in the stock price, dip buyers will come right in. >> that is what i think. i am not saying you should jump into earnings ahead of time, but i would be surprised if they have a great quarter. i would not be surprised if

they have a great quarter, there is some sort of knee-jerk lower because some algorithm picks up on something that maybe wasn't as good as what they had programmed into their own expectations. if that were to trigger some sort of narrative something is wrong, by midday tomorrow, we are talking about the stock going green after opening down. like, i could totally envision that scenario happening and that fits really well with a history of nvidia. i went through this yesterday on air with you, but let's keep in mind, i know this is a big move being priced in by the options market right now but truthfully the last two reports, one day was -2% and the next day was plus 3. a lot of activity is taking place in advance of the print, not on the heels of the print. if the stars were destined to stay this massive rally or selloff, you may not get that. >> stacy, how would you view

the floor end of the stock, the dip buyers, and how you judge the overall price and how this may trade post earnings? >> i always joke you could hand me the earnings report. i'm not sure i could tell you what the stock would do in the aftermarket. you know, like i said, it tends to move on like how they sound, how bullish they were, if they gave us any kind of color going forward rather than numbers. the numbers should be fine, right? it kind of depends. if it goes down, it depends on why because you start to wonder like, what is the narrative? is there something that breaks the narrative, or not? if there is nothing that breaks the narrative -- you know, like i said, when things are good, it is not much lower than that, but if the narrative breaks, then yes, you have a big problem, but i don't think we are anywhere near that point.

>> stacy, you said, "at this point, china is out of the model." is that an example of something they could say, where they are reengaged and back in the chinese market and have resolved some of the issues? do you see that as a meaningful example? people could get shocked and say oh, look. china is back. or is it not that big of a deal? >> that depends. china is out of the numbers right now in the sense they can't ship anything yet. i think it is an open question, how many of them they will sel . the problem is they were forced due to the sanctions to very much a haircut of a performance of those products. local products in china are not constrained by the same kind of thresholds. at the same time, you have software compatibility and everything else with nvidia that makes it easier . i don't know how much we will get. however, there is nothing in there now, so whatever they get

would be the upside. i would love to know how much china -- how much is china using on their data center and how much do they expect it to be by the end of the year? >> two quick things, one for josh and one for bryn. we talked about the chips and was riding on it. how should the investors in the stock feel going into this number? perilous position? okay? >> well, the big thing is the caps have already reported industries have largely liked what they heard. microsoft and alphabet didn't get the warmest reception on the heels of their report but they have gained back most of that loss. amazon is now a dow component, hallelujah. they seem to not be reliant on nvidia from a sentiment perspective, however you do have a lot of overlap in terms of the story we are elling

about all of these companies. the growth will come from a i and we all need to buy and sell from each other. there is this interrelatedness and i don't think that will be completely ignored if there is a huge reaction by nvidia in the other direction. >> bryn, over to you. same question, but quick, please. >> microsoft looks weak. meta looks good. we are starting to see dispersion and we will continue to see this. >> guys, i appreciated very, very much. stacy, thank you. i know you will be busy and these folks will be -- i don't know. it will be nerve-racking when these numbers hit. 40 minutes or so. stacy rasgon, bryn talkington, josh brown, thank you for being here. let's move things over to kate rooney now . >> we've got some mixed guidance with the online healthcare company seeing a smaller loss. they have a virtual therapy and

their revenue guidance was disappointing and a gloomy outlook at solar edge as calls for a longer road to recovery. the stocks are down 70% over the last year as demand gets hit by higher rates. california's rooftop incentives and european demand. up next, robert kaplan is with us. we will get his reaction to today's fed minutes. option two is pretty sloppy. we will find out whether he thinks the recent hot inflation reports are shaking up the fed's rate cuts. we are live from the n yk ewor stock exchange and you are watching closing bell on cnbc.

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welcome back. we are right across the board headed for the third straight day of stocks after a pretty

sloppy bond option midday. the fed releasing the minutes from his latest meeting an hour ago. steve liesman joined us now with the juicy details. and they were pretty juicy, steve. >> yes, juicy and hawkish, if you can mix metaphors. most officials were concerned about inflation turning hotter and concerns about cutting rates too quickly. even before the january surprise reported a few weeks later. they showed concerns about inflation progress stalling and said there is upside risk and demand. in geopolitical risks, it could undo the progress from the supply chains normalizing. only a handful of community members say it showed greater concern for an economic downturn but none appeared to argue for near cuts now trading

at the lowest probability of the year, just 32% with more confident bets on rate cuts centered on june and july. officials said it would be appropriate. this is the one dovish part of this whole thing -- to begin discussion of ending the balance sheet reduction at the next meeting coming up in march. a few said this may continue for some time, even after the fed begins cutting interest rates. if the fed was this hawkish before the january inflation data, there is little doubt their positions have hardened since. many of them note considerable progress but it doesn't look like it has motivated them, scott, to take policy action in response to that. >> they feel they have some insurance policy in their back pocket called the economy. steve, thank you so much. that was steve liesman, our senior reporter. robert, it is good to have you

in our program. >> good to see you, scott. >> some are concerned inflation progress could stall. do you share those concerns? >> yes, i do. i think if i were sitting at the fed, i would want to see more evidence that this inflation improvement is going to continue and the reason that i would be very cautious is substantial amount of the fiscal spending. inflation reduction act spending, infrastructure act, unspent money. i think while monetary policy is very restrictive, fiscal policy is very stimulative. and so, i would be on guard about that if i were at the fed. >> how much more evidence is warranted before they actually make that first move to cut rates? they have already suggested they will cut before inflation gets down to target anyway, but what is the magic evidence or the magic number

that allows powell to do that? >> they are expecting continued disinflation on goods, even with the supply chain issues in the middle east. the sector i would be watching, and i'm sure they are watching, the service sector where inflation has been sticky. i don't think you need to see a lot of improvement, but you need to see the numbers heading in the right direction. i think the fear would be you could even see a backup in inflation here in the near term and so i don't think you need to see a lot of improvement. you just need to see the numbers not going backwards. >> i feel like they almost have a conundrum on their hands with what they suggest in the minutes today. some saw inflation risk and strong demand. the premise there being well, if the economy remains this

strong, much stronger than we expected it to be at this point, that could cause even higher demand which could cause inflation to go either back up or remain sticky. but yet inflation is clearly coming down towards target. it is a real delicate needle thread. >> it is and so, getting down to the low threes was always going to be, i think, very doable. the issue is how do you get from the low threes down into the twos? the issue for the fed is -- what they don't want to do is start lowering rates and have negative reports, where they have to stop or even go backwards. the reality is there is likely to be room to cut, but i think it is dicier when you have this size of fiscal stimulus. i don't think it is being talked about nearly enough, the amount of physical stimulus

being pumped into the economy in these major projects across the country, the type of stimulus you would typically do postrecession, not pre-recession . i think that is what they are dealing with. >> you don't think we are going to have a recession? the soft landing seems to be the prevailing thought for many and you share that? >> i do. as long as -- remember, last year's deficit was over 7% of gdp. that is the kind of deficit you would see in a recession. even the past recessions, the deficits have not been that high. it is historically unusual to run a deficit that high when you've got full employment. yes, i don't think you are going to see a recession. the issue is how much longer can we keep leveraging at the fiscal level that the gdp is over 100%? the issue is this soft landing

isn't free. it comes at the cost of interest expense in the federal government heading toward $1 trillion not this year, but next year and that could turn out to be a bigger problem for us to deal with. >> but that is a longer road problem, obviously. nothing in the near term will deal with the deficit in any way. bond options today are a good example of what is needed to be done to fund this ever increasing deficit. the fed will cut interest rates most likely several times in respect to the deficit issues that you suggest, so i am trying to figure out how that colors the current picture for what the fed thinks about doing in the next -- i don't know, six to eight months. >> the fiscal spending makes it more likely service sector inflation will be sticky. we

have a very strong job market. these projects increased demand for workers, so it makes it less clear when they can cut. the one positive for the fed, remember, they have a dual mandate, full employment and price stability. they can be confident their full employment mandate is being met and that gives them the luxury of time to wait to lower rates. i think they will take advantage of the luxury. >> i think most would admit chair powell has already waited too long to begin cutting rates in the first place. what is the risk at this point they have waited too long to cut, and do you share those risks? >> you've got to be worried a little bit about the banking sector. i think the real estate sector is an area to watch. anything interest-rate sensitive is weak. i think -- i think i would be worried the organic strength of the economy is actually weaker

than it appears and it is being artificially improved by fiscal spending. and so, that is why if i were at the fed, i would want to wait longer. once we saw sustained improvement by june or july, i would like to be able to cut the fed's rate two or three times. my guess is their estimate back in december of three cuts this year, that is not a bad estimate, but they need to wait longer before they can begin on that. >> maybe this summer, but you think we will get cuts? >> i do. >> mr. kaplan, thank you so much for being here. that is the former fed president robert kaplan. up next, kate rooney is standing by for us. >> hey, scott. one stock is seeing their best performance in years thanks to their boom in their fitness division. and the end of an era with

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hi! constant contact. helping the small stand tall. we are about 20 until the closing bell. let's get back to kate rooney for a look at the stocks. hi, kate. >> the device maker garmin announced a buyback plan.

five categories with sales nearing 22%. walgreens shares getting hit by being replaced by amazon. the dow jones industrial average down. walgreens had been the worst performer this year. walgreens' decision split its shares and had cut its dividend in half this year as it looks to conserve cash. scott, back to you. hitting a big bounce today. pippa stevens is here to explain why. >> chesapeake said it would cut production. the market has been hammered by oversupply and they are the first ones to really talk about lowering output. the key here and what's different from other companies, chesapeake is going to drill frack wells but not complete them until there is a demand signal. in other words, they won't be turned on until prices rise. the base decline will take over

and fraction could be 30% lower by the fourth quarter based on estimates. nat gas still down 30% in a month. scott? >> pippa stevens, thank you so much. apple announcing a new app that has sports fans cheering. will it move the needle downfield? does the needle go downfield? maybe this went on -- one does. closing bell is coming right back. ♪♪ the bond report is brought to you by pimco. ♪♪

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welcome back. apple is releasing a new iphone app for tracking sports scores. julia boorstin has the details. hi, julia. >> apple's free sports app will launch today. this is apple's latest move to elevate its role as a go to for sports content and sports news. users in the u.s., canada, and the ua k -- uk can download apple sports. it is not preloaded on phones. you can access scores from all of the major leagues and teams. the app was designed to be fast and simple for users to be able to check back frequently, rather than trying to engage them for long sessions every time they open up the app. apple sports has an advantage of not being biased by the fact they represent a team or league. they are more agnostic here.

they say they will show betting odds which users can turn off, but it will not allow users to that through this app. this build on apple's investments on sports rights, like the rights to major league baseball, soccer, and adding sports journalism to its news app and featuring sports related documentaries on apple tv plus. apple is expected to make a bid for nba streaming games when the rights come up for grabs. negotiations started a couple of months. scott? >> julia boorstin, thank you. still ahead on a the toughest test yet for a.i. trade when nvidia reports earnings in overtime in about 15 minutes. we will talk about what's at stake and the key numbers to watch. but first, a quick message as cnbc celebrates heritage. we often talk about keeping it real. >> i, for one, want magic.

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earnings after the bell. nvidia results in just about 30 minutes or less. we will take you inside the market zone next backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.

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the high earnings bar nvidia has set . what we know from the earnings report, and hopefully we can keep going with the elements on the prompter, shares have dropped 2% today and fell yesterday too after some profiting. two quarters we just thought -- you know, expectations are incredibly high. especially yesterday after google said yesterday their new a.i. model will use less computes. that means less chips from nvidia. the biggest take away from nvidia's earnings, scott, demand sustainability beyond this year. investors will hold nvidia for the long run. there are concerns because of supply is improving which means demand is felt sooner than expected and leads to a possible slowdown. again, that points to demand and sustainability beyond the 2025. also, details on chips for

china given export restrictions, china contributes to 25% of data center revenue so they need to maintain steady demand from that country and that region. the street is expecting revenues of $20.6 billion. as you can see on your screen, it is much higher at $23 billion. guidance is actually $25 billion so you can understand how high the bar is and it is led by data center review. this upcoming quarter, we are expecting 20% quarter after quarter growth. the market is implying 11%. impact will be felt on the nasdaq, as we saw today. any stock downside could be short-lived since nvidia has its next big event march 18th and shares tend to move higher after their events. >> we will see you in a bit and overtime. nvidia shares are at their lowest levels. phil lebeau on the other

earnings report that we are watching? >> scott, we will make this much quicker. just a few key umbers people are focused on, the fourth quarter. what happened in terms of cash earned? we know the market for evs are softening a bit and then there is the 2024 guidance. what is crucial here, in terms of production or guidance i can tell you the street is expecting 66,000 vehicles to be delivered this year. they delivered 51,000 last year and reduced a little over 57,000 and. those are the key numbers to look at. on the analyst call later this afternoon, liquidity will be a focus and scott, don't forget, must the interview tomorrow on squawk box. we will be talking about the q4 results and more importantly, where they are heading into 2024. they have a lot of big things coming up here preparing for production

over the next few years. >> phil, thank you for that. phil lebeau covering rivian. bob pisani joining me now. the dow has gone positive. all s&p sectors are positive except for tech which is modestly negative. microsoft is lower, meta is lower, apple and alphabet though turning green. >> it is a fairly broad rally. i just want to show you people like to believe scott's trade on individual merits but this is momentum driven. look at what palo alto networks has been doing to the cybersecurity sector. the big names here, they are up 25% most of these cybersecurit . when they are down like this, it just takes out the entire sector. cloud flare as well. there are a bunch of these out there.

look at that, down 7% today because it's 25% palo alto and a zscaler. >> palo alto in the stocks that have turned to the green, palo alto is down almost $105, more than 28%. is this impinging on nvidia? >> what is impinging on nvidia is whether or not they can show their trading for roughly what they are showing now. take a look. i just want to put up the smh. you want to see how big these stocks have become. this is the biggest semiconductor, the one everyone talks about. nvidia is 25% of this right now. as nvidia goes, so does this. nvidia has been down the last few days . look at this today. those of the biggest stocks there. they are all down. as long as they continue to

show their earnings will grow in the stock market, that will matter. >> bob pisani, thank you so much. >> [ bell ringing ] >> it is almost came on for nvidia. i will see you tomorrow. we will have a comeback for the major industries. the dow and the s&p ending in the green. the nasdaq still in the negative. that's it on wall street. today we are coming to you live from our new studio here at cnbc's headquarters. welcome to closing bell overtime . i am jon fortt alongside morgan brennan . >> in less than 20 minutes, we will have the nvidia numbers and we've got a team of experts