welcome back to "overtime. nvidia up 9% just moving higher ahead of the call >> yeah. >> believe it or not, we have now officially been saying welcome back to "overtime" for an entire year jon, we've been at the helm for the show for one year, happy anniversary. >> happy anniversary >> we talked about playing "time of the life" and doing the "dirty dancing" thing. that does it >> "fast money" begins right now. happy anniversary from us to you. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight all eyes on nvidia shares up strongly, about 10%. revenue and profit coming in better than expected, and data center sales, more than quintupled from a year ago did the company just silence all the skeptics we'll debate that one. plus, bezos' billions.

selling 50 million shares of the e-commerce giant in the last two weeks. zuckerberg, gates, also selling lately while the sales have been planned, could they trigger other insider moves? we'll break it down. what are the signals here? and later, our big short trader set to tell us where he's actually long in this market what's behind his bullish bets right now? we'll find out i'm tyler mathieson in tonight for melissa lee. coming to you live from studio here at the nasdaq here on the desk tonight, dan nathan, guy adami, danny moses welcome one and all. and we start with that massive move in nvidia you're going to hear that name a few times here bet the over on this one shares are surging after the chipmaker posted record revenue, a whopping 265% increase from last year. on the strength of its a.i. business now, the news sending shares of other chipmakers like supermicro and amd much higher in

afterhours, as well. the conference call for nvidia just started, and cnbc's kristina partsinevelos has the numbers and is monitoring the call kristina >> well, the call just started, so, i'm going to get on it as soon as we finish this, but nvidia surpassing expectations get again. a lot of it is driven by data center revenue, its bread and butter, which grew 38% quarter over quarter to 18.4 billion large cloud providers represent more than 50% of that data center revenue with nvidia saying in their report that demand is growing among other verticals, including auto, financials, as well as health care services all sectors for nvidia, revenue did beat auto is the only one declining, but what's so impressive is gross margins coming in at 77% for the fourth quarter which speaks to its pricing power what's interesting, though, is nvidia was still able to grow data center revenue, even though the cfo commented in their -- in her statement, stating that, quote, data center

sales declined significantly in the fourth quarter due to u.s. government licensing requirements she's never used the word significantly before so, a decline, quite a bit, and nvidia was still able to post a 38% quarter over quarter growth, speaking to the strength and demand from other markets. once that news came, that's when you started to see the stock really switch gears. in the press release, jensen huang saying increased demand still lies ahead and reassures confidence in this a.i. trade, which is exactly what investors were looking for heading into this report. but we knew the options market was pricing in 11-point swing, what are we at, 10% now? >> yeah, there you go, 10%, right on it. the company clearly hitting on all cylinders in the most recent quarter and looking for bright skies ahead. kristina, we'll be back to you, i'm sure, several times. let's kick this one around a little bit, guy. >> gross margin stuck out to me,

77%, so, good for them listen, great quarter. there's nothing not to like in terms of the quarter here's what i say, and people are going to at me on twitter all night long the magnitude of the guides high, which they continue to do, become less and less at a certain point, one has to wonder, you know, what's the right price to revenue right now, if this company is trading at $1.8 trillion, which is probably where it is at $740, you talk about a company that's trading either side of 18 times revenue, which, in this world, is expensive, now, people will say, at this growth rate, they will grow into this valuation at some point maybe. we'll see. but you know, it is an expensive stock on that metric alone >> danny >> if you traded this valuation, you better beat and guide higher, which they did >> they did. >> at some point, the secular trade becomes cyclical i remember 1999, 2000, when fiber optic was the big craze, and yes, there was a need for it, we were growing lasers and everything, but at some point, the secular trade becomes

cyclical, and you can't maintain these margins over time. but for the stock to trade down like it did in the aftermarket quickly and trade back up, $1.6, $1.8 trillion, i don't think it matters. >> can the law of large numbers make the future harder for this company? >> for sure. at some point, the margin -- >> it gets so heavy. >> sure. they're in a great pace. i would never short the stock at these levels, but let's see what happens. >> it's getting ready to be a pretty decent short. i tried to do it last year and that did not work out particularly quell and again, i never thought we'd see this magnitude of the beats and raises that we did so, a quarter like this is clearly a great quarter. when i look at really what was expectations for the guide right here, you know, consensus for the current quarter that we're in, about $22 billion in revenue, okay, and about -- a little less than $5 in earnings, and they guided to 24, so, that's up 9%, okay, in the quarter. but some of the whisper estimates, this was in print these were, like, brokerage

houses that talked to a lot of the buy-side accounts, they were expecting $24 to $25 billion the guide came in below the whisper. when you look at the price action in the aftermarket, and this is a massive stock, big pools of capital are not trading right now. so, we had this swing -- >> so, do you depart from what guy said a moment ago, there's nothing not to like in this report >> other than expectations, right? and we talked about this a little bit last night. if you are a hedge fund, right, and you are expecting maybe a guide to 24 or 25 billion and they guided to, you know, maybe just about 24 billion, you are going to expect them to beat that, if everything continues to go, but are you buying the stock here right now i think not. let's see how the stock trades it's going to open up 10% most likely tomorrow. shorts are probably covering in the aftermarket right now. let's see if big money is going to come in and buy this stock. think big money probably sells a little bit, because guy said, the magnitudes of the beat are getting smaller and smaller.

>> the stock price creates the narrative. if the stock was down 10% right now, it would be, oh, they beat and guided up, but it wasn't enough but because it's up. so, the difference in a $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion market cap, it's meaningless. it's just the narrative. >> are we talking about that law of large numbers, when you said the magnitude of the gains is slowing a little bit >> well, that's just factually true, i mean, the magnitudes of the gains are slowing, it was three quarters ago, they went from a $7.8 billion to an 11 and change billion dollar guide, you can do the math. in percentage terms, the magnitudes are slowing the question i guess you have to ask yourself, in this sector, which is a highly cyclical, at least historically, you know, at 19 times ish revenue, let's just call it 18, that's historically an extraordinarily rich valuation. now, the people out there will say, guy, what you're missing is, they're going to grow into this, the total adjustable

market is such they can grow into this very easily. that might be true, but you know what else is coming down the pike competition, as well so, you see 77% gross margins, a year from here, are we talking about the same gross margins, or competition coming into the space and the margins contracting? those are the questions you have to ask yourself, instead of just, i would say, just blindly saying, this is a secularsy tory that's going to last forever >> remind me where this stock was a week ago >> 725, 730. in the afterhours today, it traded down to 640 if we open here, i don't know what here is right now, we're effectively at an all-time high. we've done a bit of a round trip here >> you've come back, recouped what was lost from the last week >> all-time high was 746 just the other day. on friday afternoon. and, listen, i'll just say this, guy just mentioned competition we know that it's coming that's why amd has doubled over the last four, five months this is a company that has 53% gross margins compared to the 77

that just printed. if they have a product that's almost as good as these high-end gpus that nvidia has 90% market share right now, how do they compete? they compete on price. and we know a lot of nvidia's customers, it's microsoft, google, amazon, meta make up 40% of their sales, at some point, we talked about this last night, every day, we see a new story, microsoft wants to diversify away, right, from this reliance that they have on nvidia, and amd is going to start competing on price and nvidia is going to start lowering their price, then the supply/demand dynamics, the supply constraints they talk about, are going to ease up a little bit, they may end up having a glut, okay, and then this becomes a bit more cyclical and the margins come down. and people will start anticipating this before it's confirmed in a quarterly report. i don't mean to rain on this parade, it's a great story i know a lot of folks believe this is going to go on for years and years, and i'll just tell you, at every near, you know what i mean, secular top as these companies or these kind of

things are shifting a little bit, that's exactly what people are saying >> does this stock, before we go to chris in just a moment, does this stock remind you of any other stock performance that you've seen in your career or in history? >> yes, there was one stock, jds uniphase >> i remember that name. >> good company, growth, and eventually what happened was, people realized that you could take all the fiber that was going to be used that will wrong around the world 100 times that the t.a.m. was too big, it didn't work. the math didn't work i don't think we're at that point yet here, but i remember, that was the stock that stopped going up on a beat and a guide higher, i think because the incremental buyer, there was no incremental buyer left of the stock. maybe not of the product, but of the stock. that one sticks in my head from that time. >> interesting i remember that name well. let's bring in chris rolland welcome. good to have you with us >> thanks, tyler >> are you in the adami camp that says there's nothing not to like in this report? >> it was solid.

it was right down the middle i think somebody referenced some buy side surveys -- we were in the exact same place we were thinking they needed 24, 24 1/2 on the guide, and so, they were right there, dialed in >> right on the button there is there any range -- to pick up on dan's metaphor, is there any rain on this parade that you can see? >> i mean, if you really want to nitpick, you can get into op-x being a little higher than we had thought, but you know, this is a.i., i'd rather than overspend than underspend. and they are doing so. >> your price target is now what on this stock? >> we're at 850. >> at 850. it's a lot closer to 850 now than it was three hours ago. >> true. but tyler, this is right down the middle we expected a little bit more of a flat stock here. maybe give them a little bit for gross margin, but that's probably it, so -- we think it

could be muted from here >> muted from here what does that mean in practice? >> a muted reaction from here. >> i see i see. >> yeah. overall. >> any questions >> yeah, so, chris, let's talk about those buy-side expectations and whisper numbers. some of the viewers that aren't as in tune with this, you have the consensus estimates that is basically compiling all the analysts like yourself and what their estimates are for a quarter and whatever metric, right? and you have the buy-side, the people that are the holders of the stock, that are sometimes on the hedge fund side of things that might be short of the stock, and they have their own expectations, right, which are usually different. where do you think consensus for the whisper, like, you just mentioned on the revenue, it was about 24 to 25 i kept on seeing that from different brokerage houses, so, that's why i'm in your camp, i'm surprised to see the stock up 9%, 10%, in the aftermarket, given the fact they just came in in line with what the whisper was.

>> there was some commentary around continued supply constraints that the cfo just mentioned on the call. it's unclear whether that's over their existing hopper generate or the next upcoming b-100, but if that is true, even though demand, supply is improving, if there's still constraints, that means we may still have some upside until we reach cruising altitude and it's really the cruising altitude of these revenues versus buy-side expectations, which i still think are probably $1 to $2 billion above sell-side expectations that matter >> let's talk a little bit about the thing that dan mentioned and guy, as well, and that is competition. what is the competitive risk that this company faces, if it does >> yeah, i do not think this is a commodity product.

i know it was mentioned they might be fighting on price -- i do not think they are going to be fighting on price this is a highly tuned piece of hardware, married with a soft ware ecosystem for a.i. that's been built over the past 20 years. since cuda was born. and that's not something, you know, that's a commodity so, the hardware, you know, amd has a really nice piece of hardware coming, they don't yet have that software ecosystem, they don't have the heritage, and it's going to take, you know, as long as half a decade to put a real, real dent into what is pretty much an nvidia monopoly here. >> walk me through the china issue that this company faces with export controls and so on and so forth >> yeah, it's pretty simple. you can't ship leading edge technologies to china, you can't ship technologies that surpass a

certain computing threshold, and almost all of nvidia's products that aren't gaming products do exactly that so they're cut off >> so, they're cut off from that what if that were to change in some material way? what could that mean on the upside for nvidia? >> they've previously talked about china being 20% to even 25% of data center revenue for them so, this is an adder on top. again, they continue to be supply constrained, so, they don't need that right now, but if they had that supply available, they could potentially upside revenue >> chris, thank you so much for being with us. appreciate your insights >> thanks, guys. >> chris rolland any trades we want to get off our chest here >> well, totally get it, but look at supermicro they got back everything it lost today. with that said, and our crack staff in ec can probably pull this up, i think -- just talked

about a billion and a half convertible note due in '29 the just issued. i get it, it's a secular growth story, everybody loves it, everybody's gotten rich on the back of it at a certain point, though, certain valuations absolutely matter as much as we hike to think it's different this time, as danny said earlier, it's probably not as different as people think >> final thought here? >> it's really smart for companies in the sector, when their stock prices are elevated, to raise capital but i want to say one thing for people out there, that they understand how sell-side research works you can raise your price target if you are a sell-side analyst, or downgrade the stock so, nobody wants to downgrade the stock on nvidia, because it's too great you have tons of momentum around it but what is the value case for continuing to raise your target on a metric potentially of what is a multiple revenue, is it future earnings discounted back? that's what i'm looking for. >> let's leave it there, not for the last time this hour. we'll come back to nvidia.

meantime, stocks were staging a late-day rally today with the s&p and dow managing to end the day in the green and eek out small gains. the nasdaq posted a three straight day of losses, but down just a third of a percent of meanwhile, treasury yields were higher after this year's 20-year bond auction saw weaker demand the 30-year touching 4.5% at its highs, while the ten-year rose back above 4.3% as you see right there. rates maintained their gains after minutes from the latest federal reserve meeting showed central bank officials have expressed caution about lowering rates too quickly. let's get to steve liesman to wrap it all up for us. >> hey, tyler. yeah, minutes to that fed january meeting show most officials still highly concerned about inflation, worried about cutting rates too quickly. and this was weeks before the january cbi data

emphasizing the risk of cutting rates too quickly and concern that inflation progress could stall. and also, seeing an upside inflation risk around every corner, in strong demand, in loosening financial conditions, and even in geopolitical risk. only a handful of committee members, if that, showed much concern at all with the recession, and that brought some criticism from wall street oxford economics writing, the odds of a policy error appear higher following the minutes there is significant disinflation in the pipeline if the central bank waits for clear signs that the labor market or the broader economy is deteriorating, it will be behind the curve. the chance of a may rate cut now trading at the lowest probability of the year, just 30%, with more confident bets now centered on june and july for that first rate cut. if the fed was this hawkish before that poor january inflation data, there's little doubt their positions have hardened from here, while many fed speakers note considerable inflation progress, doesn't seem to motivate them to take any action in response >> it would seem, steve, that the higher for longer narrative

is well entrenched at the fed, and maybe increasingly in the eyes of economists and market watchers >> yeah, tyler, there is a weird thing going on right now, where more and more i read people saying that the data we got in january was anomalous, that it was just one time price increases that weren't picked up by seasonal adjustments, and yet, they're changing their outlook for the fed based on data that they don't think should change the fed's outlook. >> yeah. >> steve, the 20-year auction today wasn't particularly good the bid to cover, the dealers got stuck with the most since may of '21 three basis points higher. i mean, not a lot to like here my question to you, i guess is, how closely, if at all, does the fed watch bond auctions like this >> i think they're watching them i think they watch them in the first instance for systemic risk is there going to be a bond market failure i think 20s are always a little difficult, because you know, it's sort of an odd man out kind of a tenor right there, it's not

the favorite tenor, it's not a ten, it's not a 30, you can't really draw too many conclusions. and also, it's worth pointing out that when these things have done poorly, rates have declined afterwards, and so, it hasn't really been that big a loss for those who have caught holding the bag, so to speak, on the bad auctions if that does not happen to be the case in the future, that's when you might have more race income the longer term bonds. but one bad auction when the government seems to have done a pretty good job placing the paper so far, i don't think is going to ring too many alarm bells at the fed >> hey, steve. i know you are more of a fed watcher than a stock market watcher, but the last time the ten-year was at 4.31, it was the first days of december, and it was on its way to 3.8, and i just think about this from the stock market perspective, a lot of the juice that the stock market got after that period really came from this monotion that the fed was going to be

lowering interest rates, maybe five or six times in 2024. are you surprised that the s&p, just below, or in and around 5,000 right now, is not reacting a bit more negatively to the fact that rates seem to have an upward bend to them? >> dan, you stole my only meaningful comment at the end of your remark right there, which is, i have been surprised at how strong the market has remained i think that's ultimately a good sign underlying the stock market you're right, i have almost no expertise at all you, other than watching it for what the economic impact is going on in the stock market and what people think about the earnings ahead it's interesting to me economically, but i do watch the fixed income market every day, i watch how the bond market reacts -- how the stock market reacts to it, they have traded together, and they've traded apart over this last several months and i have been really surprised, and i don't hear -- i don't know, dan, if you want to kick it back to me, but i don't hear people talking about that the market has withstood this

runup in rates and, to me, that's a sign of underlying strength >> yeah, i think your point is a really good one. it is -- >> it was your point >> well, yeah, but i mean, i can't tell myself what a great point i made thank you, though. the expectation that we're going to have 10%erring earnings gro everything that you just laid out in the beginning of this is basically saying, well, maybe the economy is that much stronger than a lot of people expected going into the second year in a row, and that is the thing that's caused upward pressure to stop >> i think one thing that we're watching here, and you guys know this better than i, this is something i'm watching economically, which is, how well do companies maintain margin in what looks to be a disinflationary period to me, the story inside the earnings is that inflation has come down, but margins have not been the big player in that declining inflation. it looks to me like jen ra generally, the higher margins

companies achieved, a big chunk of it looks to be remaining. we'll see if it gets competed away, but right now, that does not seem to be the case. >> steve, you made a great point. dan, a better point. thank you very much, steve danny, any final thoughts here on the fed minutes and rates, what's the market's telling us >> this higher for longer narrative self-fulfills wider credit spreads, and that does the job for it i don't think a rate hike is going to happen. and i believe if and when the fed does start cutting, it will be aggressive, because the reason they're going to start cutting, things are really slowing down >> does the fed have to do its cuts, what cutting it does in 2024, before the election? >> i don't really believe him to his word that that's not what he's thinking about. i don't think that should be a factor at all in it. >> do what they're going to do >> maybe i'm cynical, but i really believe he's just going to follow the course here. all right, coming up, it's not just nvidia on the move. plenty of other afterhours action to bring you in shares of

maher marathon oil up. rivian, as well. the numbers coming up. and some insider selling what the latest c-itsue sales tell us where the market is valued don't go anywhere. more "fast" is coming right at you. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one.

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all right, welcome back, everybody. two bigger energy names reporting earnings in the last oil. the stocks moving in opposite dire directions apa had been down more than 3% at its lows. both company's conference calls are tomorrow pippa stevens joins us now more with more. a tale of two companies, pippa >> that's right. apa is under pressure, with production in the north sea down 18% year over year now, the company reiterating its commitment to shareholder payouts, saying it returned a 66% of free cash flow to shareholders in 2023 looking forward, apa sees flat total production growth. oil output is forecast to rise 8%, but that will be partially offset by softer natural gas liquids.

on the call, investors will be listening for an update on the callan petroleum acquisition marathon oil, though, topping estimates, while also reiterating its payout of 12% of its market cap production declined slightly, with average realized prices falling. $77.28 per barrel of crude, with unit costs also rising quarter over quarter the company outlined a cap x plan for 2024, and expects production, tyler, to be flat. back to you. >> all right, pippa, thank you very much. guy, what do you think here? >> pippa kills it, by the way. great that she's onboard you mentioned tale of two cities, well, in energy, that is absolutely the case. apa has not been good due to natural gas, which has been a disaster marathon oil, as well. i mean, both stocks sort of slogging along the flip side of that coin is, names like marathon petroleum,

mpc, look at that, i mean, that stock effectively at an all-time high psx, as well when you are in energy, you have to really understand what the components of a lot of the xeefs a companies are. the big cap integrated names, they're all just too cheap right here in this environment given a broader market that's probably trading 21 times and you have some energy stocks, some of them at half the valuation of a broader market. >> danny >> yeah, you have to look at en energy, you kbltcan't just say y energy in general. the weight in the s&p is down to 5%, just a couple years ago, it was 15%. i'm not saying it gets back there, but i think they are defensive in nature. the cash returns that are going on, the dividends, the buy backs, the mergers that are happening, and the kind of move away from esg, we saw a big announcement from jpmorgan, blackrock, we're going to do our own thing. i think jpmorgan is probably sick of moving out on the m and a deals out there.

so, if the deals close or not, you can own them all >> and another deal to tell you about. cord energy to buy interplus for $11 billion in stock and cash this according to bloomberg. i don't know much about them >> don't look over this way. >> don't look over this way. anybody have a thought here? >> a lot of deals in the space >> a lot of deals in the space warren buffett now owns 37% of oxidental petroleum. this is a stock, pull up an oxy chart, it's going absolutely nowhere, but clearly, there are people that see value in a space that a lot of people sort of left on the side of the road, because of names like nvidia if they are going to go up 8% in a day, why own energy stocks that might grind along half a percent over a week when you can own the high fliers. but ever a rotation out of technology, it's going to find its way into energy. >> very interesting. all right, coming up shares

of rivian tanking after their results. those numbers. plus, lucid and etsy, as well. and a look at recent insider selling. the execs offloading shares, who are they, and why our next guest says one of these moves could be cause for concern. the details are ahead. ve" re watching "fast money, li from the nasdaq market site in times square. we'll be right back after this ...our people. that's why we chose principal to provide the benefits and retirement plan that show our people just how much we appreciate them. benefits help us keep top talent. —hey mom. benefits help us grow. because we know how important security is to all. ♪♪ the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. stocks staging a late-day rally, closing near their highs of the day. the dow gaining 50 points after being down as much as 225. it was one tenth of one percent gain there the s&p up a tenth of a percent, too. the nasdaq with a third straight day of losses, down about three tenths of a percent. that, however, still well off the lows of the session. a few names to tell you about. jpmorgan, toll brothers, diamondback energy, all in the green, hitting record levels during the session today shares of royal caribbean jumping after hours. the company increasing 2024 guidance on accelerating demand in cruising. and another afterhours mover, shares of etsy dropping after reporting a miss on earnings, but posting a revenue beat

the company also saying gross merchandise sales for the current quarter would decline in the low single digits. any thoughts here, dan, on jpmorgan >> yeah, it's pretty astounding. when you think about the banks having a tough time when rates were going higher, for that whole period, and it was a net interest margin thing and we saw issues as it relates to the portfolios last year so, now that we have rates moving higher, i guess the market is saying jpmorgan has nr regionals that had problems a year ago, but if you look at bank of america, still down 35% from its highs about two years ago, the start of 2022, it is pretty astounding here they don't seem to have any problems whether rates are high or low >> the juggernaut in banking. coming up, folks, a look into massive recent sales from

insiders, and what can moves could say about stocks and the markets. and ev earnings around the corner shares of rivian stalling out, down nearly 15% after reporting profits today, or losses lucid lower, as well the quarterly numbers when "fast money" returns we're back in two. you always got your mind on the green. not you.

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as many good songs as he has horrible songs >> i mentioned one >> you said "we didn't start the fire", one of the worst in mankind. >> i beg to differ what's the one, the riffs? >> is that the one that's that one. >> that's why i like it. it's clever. >> well -- >> let's get back to business here >> please. >> welcome back to "fast money." getting headlines off the nvidia conference call that are moving the stock. let's check back in with kristina for the details hi, kristina >> hi, tyler, sorry to break the party. let's talk about jensen huang saying on the call, conditions are excellent for continued growth calendar 2025 and beyond he said he expects what is being experienced in the united states will, quote, surely be replicated around the globe. nvidia's cfo was on the call, confirming that are product road map is on track, saying they're

h-200 chip, the next one, is on track to ship in the second quarter of this year they're saying supply is improving across the board but the cfo and ceo warning that we can expect, or they can expect their next generation products to be supply constrained. so, this would imply the b-100 a.i. chip that is launched in march. i'm interpreting that, you can get the h-100, the h-200, those are the previous generation, but the b-100 may take longer to get once you sign up as for china, demand declined, with nvidia saying they have not received licenses to chip restricted products to china, but they have started shipping alternatives that don't require a license. so, we knowin q-4, data center revenue was hit big-time by china weakness, and yet you still saw that 38% sequential growth the call is under way, it's in my under ear right now, i'm listening into that. back to you guys meantime, megacap insiders

making megasales insiders at meta and microsoft shedding shares, say that five times fast the sales are largely planned, but could they trigger cause for concern? for a closer look inside that world, let's bring in ben silverman, host of "insider data podcast differentiated." does one of these moves raise more red flags than another? >> thank you, tyler. one of the moves does, that's meta what is interesting is that mark zuckerberg had been selling daily since november last year then the stock gapped higher to over $460 earlier this month, and suddenly saw an acceleration in that selling. so, that type of behavior is a red flag it makes us cautious about meta's valuation, because he's doing these daily pattern sales and then suddenly goes off-pattern and dramatically

accelerates the number of shares he's selling that's the type of valuation-oriented selling that we're looking for. >> if i am trying to use seller or insider buyer data, am i on firmer ground watching the buys than i am watching the sells >> it's both so, from a macro perspective, insiders are really good buyers. we've seen them buy, you know, the dips and the big events over the last 20 years. whether it be the great financial crisis, the banking crisis 2016, or the covid pandemic as sellers, they're not as predictive as a group, because what we went through a decade-long bull market and a ton of insider selling so, you have to break it down to the company-specific level, and you have to look at who is doing price-oriented selling if you are selling all the time, what you're looking for is deviations in selling behavior you're looking for unusual types of behavior overall.

and you're looking for this valuation-oriented selling so, jeff bezos sells 50 million shares, but he doesn't do any type of price triggers imbedded in his plan. what he's just doing is, he's selling the stock over a few day period and he's done that over and over for years and years >> so, ben, what can i infer, if anything, about the market's direction from the fact, as you report, that the ratio of sellers to buyers right now is 3.98, that is much higher than the historic ratio of 2.7. is that in itself an alarming sign >> so, right now, that ratio is putting -- putting insiders on the edge of our radar. we've got about a month left before insider trading windows close for the quarter. so, we've got a month to see what insiders are going to do, as we know, it's still earnings season, right? we're seeing a lot of companies report earnings. and so, over the next month, it's going to be really crucial for investors to drill down on the stocks they care about, the

individual companies, and see what insiders are doing, because as the quarter draws to a close, that's when we really start to get that tell. so, right now, the insider selling is on the edge of our radar, and it's either going to move off the radar, maybe we get more buying, maybe we get an event out of the selling, or it's going to move closer and start raising more red flags >> ben, thank you so much. appreciate it. >> thank you >> all right, guy, you flagged something here >> listen, it's not a market timing device by any stretch of the imagination, but when the ratio gets to levels like we're seeing now, it should raise a little bit of a red flag, you can say, okay, it's fine, they're selling stock, a lot of these things have been planned we're not suggesting they're doing anything wrong but when the smartest people in the world are selling to the magnitude we're seeing now, you have to take notice. good for them, i'm going to buy what they're selling, but a lot of people say, maybe this is indication they think the market is getting ahead offite. >> very interesting. we'll coke ba to this one, i'm sure. coming up, meantime,

afterhours ev action shares of rivian and lucid motors getting crushed after reporting results. we will kick the tires on the ev trade. next plus, from big short to big long the sectors and stocks danny moses thinks could hit the jackpot. moses will lead us to the promised wlland. and during february, we're celebrating black heritage here's the vp of social corporate responsibility and dei at jetblue >> our contributions to the world are significant, and you don't know where you're going unless you can look back and see where you come from. and so, celebrating black history month allows everybody to understand, celebration, and recognize the rich contributions that african americans have made in the united states, butht at black people in general have made to the world.

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with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab. all right, folks, welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on rivian and lucid motors. falliing hard after hours phil lebeau has been monitoring the companies and has all the details. hy hey, phil. >> the rivian call is going on right now, tyler, and this is one of the gut-check earnings reports of financials. there's no earnings here, they posted a loss of $1.36 a share,

the street expecting $1.32 revenue came in better than expected and the net loss for the fourth quarter, improvement compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, but the guidance is not good they talk about cancellations impacting the fact they are going to be making some adjustments here, and adjusted loss of $2.7 billion expected this year. they do expect to get to a modest gross profit in q-4, but this is the killer production of just 57,000 vehicles this year i should tell you that last year, they built just over 57,000 vehicles, so, you are correct here in saying, wait a second, there's no improvement in terms of production what about deliveries? the street went into today expecting deliveries for 2024 to come in about to 66,000. that's not going to be anywhere close to that. they delivered just over 50,000 vehicles in 2023, so, what you're looking at here is the ceo of rivian doing a lot of explaining to analysts in terms of, yeah, they're making production adjustments in the second quarter

people knew about that but this is, again, a gut-check earnings report from rivian. we're going to be talking to rj tomorrow morning that's on "squawk box. we'll be talking about the production guidance for 2024 now, let's talk about lucid real quick. also under pressure. another similar situation. where the company is saying, you know what? we're going to be building 9,000 vehicles this year that's our guidance. i talked to the ceo, and he's optimistic that they will be able to make some adjustments here the street was expecting 14,000 vehicles in terms of production this year. that's why the stock is under pressure they do expect to start building the gravity suv in the fourth quarter. and they have announced a high volume mid-side vehicle coming in 2026. that said, tyler, if you were long on either of these ev startups, ooh. you are licking your wounds today, because these were not good reports, and the guidance is not good from either company. >> phil, thank you very much dan, rivian is in your acronym

for 2024, zebra. that would be the r for rivian >> i disagree with that last bit. if you are long of these things coming in, you realized this is going to be a tough road, and they have a lot of cash. they're going to be able to make it over the next couple of years. rivian has 70% of their market cap in cash, lucid has half. if this is reflective of an ev winter, if the demand is falling off, the way the aftermarket prices in tesla have been cut in half over the last year and causing downward pressure on the whole space, i'd be worried about that one, with the market cap that they have, not -- >> quick thought here? >> we were talking about how secular stories become cyclical. you're seeing that in real-time in the electric vehicle space. when you look at byd, which is $75 billion, which is going to produce, sell 3 million cars, tesla, $600 billion, they're moving into the backyard for luxury something to watch out for. coming up, he's in it for the long haul. danny laying out some of his favorite long ideas in the market right now, where he's

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ditch the other guys and you'll save hundreds. get a free line of unlimited intro for 1 year when you buy one unlimited line. and for a limited time, get the new samsung galaxy s24 on us. welcome back to "fast money. he may be known for the big short, but danny sees a number of opportunities for long positions in the market right now. so, let's get right to it. why you like online gambling stocks >> i've liked it for awhile. on the heels of apple launching their sports app today everyone's moving into media

entertainment, sports and gambling, it's all kind of converging here. draftkings had a breakout kind of year. the quarter was really good, with the bad luck they had, meaning people were winning, to me, if you are a bookie, you want to take that. jurisdictions are opening up numbers are free cash flow positive, so, flutter in that space, flut, and draftkings, dkng, probably my two favorite names. >> and california and texas potentially opening up >> huge source of tax revenue. illinois is proposing a 35% tax now from 15%, so, those are things you need to watch, but certainly a growth industry. >> let's move onto gold. >> yeah, gold, to me, is a great hedge against all the geopolitical risk that is out there. a hedge against a mistake by the fed or treasury, so, i'm long gold here. i know it's kind of flat, may not be that exciting, but flat in this environment says a lot about how stable it is >> and finally walmart >> walmart, i've liked for awhile not overly cheap here, 24, 25 times earnings just increased the dividend.

they are getting the downtrade from the consumer into their food, right? so, they went either way food prices keep coming up, they get consumer, food prices come down, they get more wallet share comes into the store and i would say the mobile business is accelerating and e-commerce business just topped $100 billion >> he's been all over the draftkings for awhile now. wa tke that one. i nto wait for a pull-back, but that's where you want to reload >> all right, guys, we're going to take a break, we'll be right to take a break, we'll be right back (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there.

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let's give you one more check on nvidia, after those very good numbers, and solid guidance $723, up $49 a share, 7% a little bit off the earlier highs in our afterhours trade, but a good performance, nonetheless. let's move onto our final trades, and go around the horn danny, we begin with you >> long exxonmobil, xom. >> dan >> yeah, rivian is likely to

trade at an all-time low and nvidia, i would not buy it >> i love danny moses, i love the big short, but i have to tell you, jeremy strong of the handsome vincent daniel sticks out to me. lockheed martin, tyler, and thank you for >> mad money starts now. >> hey, i am cramer, welcome to mad money. i am just trying to help you make a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but to explain. call me or tweet me, @jimcramer. the seven have spoken, and now we are done. now that we have hrd